| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Disney World Has An Agreement To Require Union Workers To Be Vaccinated: The deal requires workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19 by Oct. 22 but they can apply for a medical or religious exemption. Disney cruises will soon require passengers 12 and up to get the shots. → https://is.gd/4FhzYa | 00:23 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): [Comment] Institutional imperatives for the advancement of women in medicine and science through the COVID-19 pandemic: The multiple roles women have in societies, including in medicine and science, mean that many women have faced unique challenges personally and professionally since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/eUPhN1 | 00:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Brunei: +1 deaths (now 4) since a day ago | 01:04 |
| archpc | Day 4: blood oxygen is 82, I don’t feel much worse, still can’t walk well | 01:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: Pediatricians push for speedy COVID vaccines for kids—but no jumping the gun → https://is.gd/NMMakh | 01:30 |
| LjL | dTal, it has conditional marketing authorization in the EU, which is a type of approval, but is not normal full approval | 01:33 |
| LjL | it's technically different from american EUA, but it's not the same as just any medicine that's fully approval once the trials are finished successfully | 01:34 |
| LjL | Spec_, it's not EUA by the EMA | 01:34 |
| LjL | specing i mean | 01:35 |
| LjL | archpc, stable is better than deteriorating, especially when there are no hospital beds for you, i guess. i'm sorry the ambulance call ended up being a waste of time and money, i feel a bit responsible | 01:36 |
| archpc | It wasn’t really a waste | 01:36 |
| archpc | And if they send some bill I’m not paying it anyway | 01:37 |
| LjL | err, yeah, i hope that works out without jailtime :P | 01:38 |
| archpc | Hah | 01:38 |
| archpc | it’s part of the American experience (tm) | 01:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for St. Kitts and Nevis: +60 cases (now 883), +1247 tests (now 29718) since 2 days ago — Tunisia: +1284 cases (now 644072), +105 deaths (now 22714), +5600 tests (now 2.5 million) since a day ago — Uruguay: +1 deaths (now 6017), +9134 tests (now 3.3 million) since 22 hours ago | 01:41 |
| LjL | maybe they'll have medical ward beds in jail at least | 01:41 |
| archpc | :| | 01:42 |
| * LjL refrains from further dark humor | 01:42 | |
| archpc | I enjoy it | 01:42 |
| LjL | archpc, did the ambulance people give any tips or whatever? | 01:43 |
| archpc | I don’t even remember | 01:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Smoking surge in young during Covid lockdown: The number of 18 to 34-year-olds smoking increased by a quarter in England during the first lockdown. → https://is.gd/lR92CS | 02:02 |
| LjL | "nice", well, at least i haven't started again smoking yet | 02:09 |
| LjL | well, i'm also not... nevermind ;( | 02:10 |
| archpc | Hahaha | 02:11 |
| rpifan | makes sense | 02:11 |
| rpifan | ppl are bored | 02:11 |
| archpc | When I was bored when I was younger I got myself into a lot of trouble | 02:14 |
| archpc | I remember getting a huge potato cannon | 02:14 |
| archpc | Put a lot of butane in the bottom | 02:15 |
| rpifan | lol | 02:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vietnam says Cuba to supply COVID-19 vaccine, transfer technology → https://is.gd/uUgSBr | 02:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bulgaria: +1911 cases (now 445097), +33 deaths (now 18565) since 22 hours ago — France: +8877 cases (now 6.7 million) since 21 hours ago — Canada: +3202 cases (now 1.5 million), +54 deaths (now 26849) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +1874 cases (now 1.9 million), +7 deaths (now 18124) since 21 hours ago | 02:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: R to @Dereklowe: Here's an example of deliberate pandemic misinformation and how it's spread - follow this thread for a look at Twitter manipulation at its finest: → https://is.gd/2IVJKN | 02:35 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-828021/v1 | 02:52 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.researchsquare.com: Morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 post-vaccination breakthrough infections in association with vaccines and the emergence of variants in Bahrain | Research Square | 02:52 |
| LjL | de-facto, "However, after censoring early vaccine recipients of Sinopharm vaccine"... i note "early", might this mean we're again seeing an effect from those people having been vaccinated too long ago and immunity waning, rather than the vaccine itself being worse? (like it could be with Pfizer vs Moderna) | 02:57 |
| de-facto | if they mention it there i guess it means they tried to avoid that | 02:59 |
| de-facto | they show time functions in Fig 1 | 03:01 |
| de-facto | indeed Sinopharm seems to have started earlier with vax-rates | 03:01 |
| LjL | but also most of the vaccination, by far, in total, were with Sinopharm? | 03:02 |
| de-facto | so yeah, LjL seems there could be such an effect i guess | 03:02 |
| de-facto | what i like about that preprint is that they show all the distributions and time functions | 03:03 |
| LjL | de-facto, wow, table 4 A | 03:03 |
| LjL | hospitalizations Sino vs Pfizer | 03:03 |
| LjL | there's just no comparison | 03:04 |
| LjL | Sinopharm still seems to be a lot more protective than nothing hospitalization-wise (and ICU and death-wise) | 03:05 |
| LjL | not so much infection-wise | 03:05 |
| LjL | but so if Sinopharm is about 10x better than nothing at those things, and Pfizer is 10x better than Sinopharm... wouldn't that mean Pfizer is like >95% effective, which against Delta, we know it isn't? | 03:06 |
| de-facto | "January 30th is the date that the first Pfizer recipients achieved presumptive protection (i.e.,14 days after their second Pfizer vaccination dose) and is therefore used as a cutoff to censor any early recipients of Sinopharm. " | 03:07 |
| de-facto | so from Fig 1 Sinopharm was given much earlier, as the vax-rate indicates, so you were right with your assumption, its hard to tell how much is waning off immunity and how much is less efficious vaccine type | 03:09 |
| LjL | de-facto, oh so after removing the *early* recipients, the ones that remain still show much lower protection? | 03:09 |
| LjL | no wait | 03:09 |
| LjL | they are saying that they are using January 30 as a cutoff, since that's when Pfizerpeople started being protected, and ignoring (censoring) Sinopharm data from before that date | 03:10 |
| de-facto | yeah | 03:10 |
| LjL | so if after doing that, Sinopharm still looks like it's performing poorly, then it's just performing poorly | 03:10 |
| de-facto | no | 03:10 |
| de-facto | it also was given earlier as its the only one with early high vax-rates | 03:11 |
| de-facto | hence also the only with higher waning off rates at endpoint i guess | 03:11 |
| de-facto | imho they should have excluded all those early vax rate participants from Sinopharm | 03:12 |
| de-facto | i.e. artificially try to enforce parity in vaccination rate functions | 03:13 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 post-vaccination breakthrough infections in association with vaccines and the emergence of variants in Bahrain ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/HM6ZM8E4 ) | 03:25 | |
| LjL | big gender (and somewhat age) differences in the vaccines given in Bahrein | 03:28 |
| LjL | also it would seem that all of BNT, AZ and Sputnik were eventually similar when it came to hospitalization and worse, while Sinopharm (and unvaccinated) do clearly stand out | 03:28 |
| LjL | and mostly for the former three, things are conserved even after Delta | 03:29 |
| LjL | dunno what to think, doesn't look very similar to other countries | 03:29 |
| LjL | is is possible we're overlooking the subvariants? that the "various Deltas" are having quite different effects even if, in theory, there's only a couple unimportant mutations? | 03:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Angola: +264 cases (now 46340), +3 deaths (now 1166) since 22 hours ago — Nicaragua: +225 cases (now 10897) since 4 days ago — Suriname: +202 cases (now 27776), +4 deaths (now 704) since 22 hours ago — Sao Tome and Principe: +22 cases (now 2546) since 3 days ago | 03:33 |
| archpc | I did a test, I got up and walked back and forth across the house, my heart got up to like 145bpm from walking | 03:34 |
| LjL | that's a lot for sure | 03:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Sign of vaccine waning in new UK report among earliest vaccinees in ZOE COVID study of 1.2 million participants https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58322882 @bbchealth @timspectorProtection from infection:Pfizer 88% -> 74% at 4 monthsAZ 77% -> 67% at 3 months → https://is.gd/QxhuwE | 03:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Covid: 85-90% of the U.S. Must Be Vaccinated ‘If We’re Going to Get Past This,’ Warns Dr. Peter Hotez → https://is.gd/R4QHKk | 04:22 |
| rpifan | thats impossible | 04:22 |
| rpifan | the virus will mutate faster then we will be able to vaccinat eppl | 04:24 |
| rpifan | i mean they say 85 percent but they dont say in what time frame | 04:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Egypt: +194 cases (now 286735), +7 deaths (now 16683) since a day ago — Syria: +112 cases (now 27115), +4 deaths (now 1981) since a day ago — Germany: +7265 cases (now 3.9 million) since 21 hours ago — Barbados: +26 cases (now 4694) since 15 hours ago | 04:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Top 5 covid cases/capita places (country or state) in the world, current, population > 1M1. Mississippi 118/100,0002. Georgia (country) 116/100,0003. Louisiana 100/100,0004. Florida 99/100,0005. Israel 91/100,000 → https://is.gd/VoEdks | 04:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for South Korea: +2152 cases (now 241439), +9 deaths (now 2237), +56855 tests (now 12.8 million) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +23025 cases (now 6.6 million), +131 deaths (now 131971) since 21 hours ago — Canada: +2227 cases (now 1.5 million) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +1862 cases (now 1.9 million), +9 deaths (now 18127) since 21 hours ago | 05:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pfizer CEO says a vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant is 'likely' to emerge → https://is.gd/YSYB2a | 05:15 |
| rpifan | pretty obvious | 05:29 |
| rpifan | not so surprising they didnt mention that earlier | 05:29 |
| rpifan | they knew that could / would happen from day one | 05:29 |
| rpifan | but had they said that they wouldnt have gotten where they got | 05:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Pakistan: +4199 cases (now 1.1 million), +126 deaths (now 25220), +61410 tests (now 17.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 05:37 |
| archpc | Had to reboot my vps | 05:49 |
| LjL | rpifan, they did say to their investors that they intend to "hike up" the prices of boosters and make lots of money | 05:53 |
| archpc | gross | 05:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: In the vaccine era, I never thought this would be possibleApproaching 100,000 US hospitalizationsAnd the most ICU patients, > 25,000, since the pandemic began here, per @BNODesk https://newsnodes.com/usand that at least 85,000 of these were 💉💉fully preventable → https://is.gd/YJJeQx | 05:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Zealand health chief slams ‘gutless’ racism against Pasifika people over Covid cluster → https://is.gd/vSJh0P | 06:20 |
| LjL | archpc, you should ask Eric Topol what you are meant to do if you did try to "fully prevent" your COVID with a vaccine, and yet, you are in need of hospital services now, but they're all taken up by unvaccinated people | 06:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +10220 cases (now 3.9 million) since 18 hours ago — Belgium: +1611 cases (now 1.2 million), +1 deaths (now 25342), +38461 tests (now 18.4 million) since a day ago | 06:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Scotland, United Kingdom: +4317 cases (now 390908), +10 deaths (now 8080) since 23 hours ago — Ohio, United States: +4117 cases (now 1.2 million), +40 deaths (now 20729) since 23 hours ago — Minnesota, United States: +3837 cases (now 639059), +8 deaths (now 7868) since 23 hours ago — Bavaria, Germany: +1847 cases (now 668081), +2 deaths (now 15393) since 23 hours ago | 07:29 |
| archpc | LjL, do I just.. @ him in a tweet | 07:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Taiwan reports first death following rollout of local vaccine jab → https://is.gd/7uyY8i | 07:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +37593 cases (now 32.5 million), +328 deaths (now 435304) since 15 hours ago | 08:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Zealand won’t ‘throw in towel’ on Covid-zero strategy despite rising infections → https://is.gd/9p565m | 08:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | August 25, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/1GfpQe | 09:01 |
| archpc | LjL, you up man? | 09:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mongolia: +2433 cases (now 199279), +6 deaths (now 913) since a day ago — Brunei: +110 cases (now 1983), +1 deaths (now 5) since 8 hours ago | 09:33 |
| dTal | LjL: "wouldn't that mean Pfizer is like >95% effective, which against Delta, we know it isn't?" - it is that effective, against "severe infection" eg hospitalization, for the under 40 set, even against Delta, according to Israeli data | 09:53 |
| dTal | archpc: guarantee LjL is asleep now | 09:55 |
| gry | what do we know about mRNA vaccines? they trigger the body to produce the spikes for how long? | 09:55 |
| dTal | gry: a week, off the top of my head | 09:55 |
| dTal | I'm not sure how, since the mRNA degrades rapidly when not refrigerated | 09:56 |
| archpc | I just talked to the biggest loon ever in another channel, I thought he would enjoy it | 09:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India has administered at least 594 million Covid vaccine doses till now- Hindustan Times → https://is.gd/YxcRMQ | 10:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Burundi: +590 cases (now 11381) since 4 days ago — Saint Lucia: +189 cases (now 7421), +2 deaths (now 99), +722 tests (now 66575) since 2 days ago | 10:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Did I just discover a vaccine and virus induced “ACE System Suppression Syndrome”? Or am I totally out to lunch? → https://is.gd/LeCqLG | 10:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kerala, India: +24296 cases (now 3.9 million), +173 deaths (now 19757) since a day ago — Armenia: +634 cases (now 239056), +10 deaths (now 4778) since a day ago — Delhi, India: +151 cases (now 1.4 million) since a day ago — Goa, India: +136 cases (now 173357) since a day ago | 10:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Covid-19 vaccines flirted with perfection at first. Reality is more complicated: Our soaring expectations for Covid-19 vaccines — still wondrous weapons in the fight against the virus — are in the process of sinking back to earth. → https://is.gd/MI8N30 | 10:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: Ivermectin for Covid-19: abundance of hype, dearth of evidence: Heed the lessons of hydroxychloroquine, bleach, and other purported Covid-19 cures: Effective treatments will be identified through systematic scientific study, not by wishful thinking, fabrication, or miracles. → https://is.gd/1nXvSN | 10:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Austria: +1574 cases (now 680179), +2 deaths (now 10770) since 22 hours ago — Slovakia: +81 cases (now 394285), +5380 tests (now 3.3 million) since 19 hours ago | 11:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: New antivirals are sorely needed. A public-private partnership can get us there: We need Covid-19 treatments delivered at home — orally if possible — that will reduce mild-to-moderate symptoms, shorten the length of illness and, most importantly, prevent hospitalization. → https://is.gd/1oVxUI | 11:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Taiwan hits zero Covid cases for first time since outbreak in May → https://is.gd/BzxDBE | 11:12 |
| pwr22 | Oh wow, the UK had 174 deaths yesterday | 11:21 |
| pwr22 | That's like up 200% from the current higher figures | 11:21 |
| pwr22 | No sure what's going on | 11:21 |
| pwr22 | <gry> "what do we know about mRNA..." <- About a week injected in muscle tissue. They pretty rapidly accumulate in the liver which then breaks them down quite quickly | 11:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Uruguay has vaccinated 70% of its population with two doses against COVID-19; Brazil only 26.83% → https://is.gd/aF2Iou | 11:23 |
| undefined_bob | pwr22: that was foreseeable. it was just a matter of time | 11:24 |
| pwr22 | Sure but the increase is so steep it's odd | 11:35 |
| pwr22 | It bucks the current upwards trend absurdly and even the anomalous normal weekend lag / monday spikes don't explain it | 11:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Russia: +19536 cases (now 6.8 million), +809 deaths (now 178423), +400000 tests (now 176.1 million) since a day ago — Faroe Is.: +2 cases (now 999), +1000 tests (now 402000) since 2 days ago | 11:38 |
| dTal | pwr22: doesn't seem out of the ordinary to me | 11:55 |
| dTal | there were 170 deaths on Aug 17 | 11:56 |
| dTal | I think sundays and mondays underreport, so you get them all flooding in on tuesday | 11:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Laos: +952 cases (now 13909), +3107 tests (now 366066) since 22 hours ago — Poland: +233 cases (now 2.9 million), +5 deaths (now 75329), +85830 tests (now 19.6 million) since a day ago | 12:03 |
| gry | pwr22: what is the mechanism for breakdown in the liver? | 12:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Slovenia: +508 cases (now 264649), +1 deaths (now 4443), +3295 vaccines (now 974648) since a day ago — Indonesia: +18671 cases (now 4.0 million), +1041 deaths (now 129293), +689094 vaccines (now 58.5 million) since 23 hours ago — Brunei: +286 cases (now 2159), +2 deaths (now 6), +12699 vaccines (now 193511), +8033 tests (now 212956) since 11 hours ago [... want %more?] | 12:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from Johnson&Johnson: Johnson & Johnson Announces Data to Support Boosting its Single-Shot COVID-19 Vaccine: Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine booster, after single dose primary regimen, provided rapid and robust increase in spike-binding antibodiesNew studies build on data demonstrating strong durability through eight months after immunization → https://is.gd/fpXJKw | 12:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for UAE: +983 cases (now 712411), +2 deaths (now 2028), +334838 tests (now 72.9 million) since a day ago | 13:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Vaccine tourism set to spike → https://is.gd/wIdvs2 | 13:24 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-96233-7 | 13:28 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: Homology between SARS CoV-2 and human proteins | Scientific Reports | 13:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: How the world is (not) handling surplus doses and expiring vaccines: In late July 2021, US states were reported to be sitting on around 26 million unused doses of covid vaccines, enough to protect 13.1 million people, including a significant tranche of Pfizer doses... → https://is.gd/R6EofV | 13:35 |
| pwr22 | <gry> "Peter: what is the mechanism for..." <- I dunno what the pathways are or anything but the way it's packaged in lipids naturally brings it to the liver to process | 13:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID Vaccines Show No Signs of Harming Fertility or Sexual Function → https://is.gd/YB7c5J | 13:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Tunisia: +3411 cases (now 647483), +146 deaths (now 22860), +14781 tests (now 2.5 million) since 12 hours ago — Palestine: +1617 cases (now 330821), +8 deaths (now 3654) since a day ago — Romania: +849 cases (now 1.1 million), +14 deaths (now 34453), +36998 tests (now 11.3 million) since a day ago [... want %more?] | 14:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on the daily number of new reported COVID-19 cases and deaths by EU/EEA country: The downloadable data file is updated daily and contains the latest available public data on COVID-19. Each row/entry contains the number of new cases and deaths reported per day and per country in the EU/EEA. → https://is.gd/tBASDi | 14:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: Vaccines Vaccines and more Vaccines: COVID vaccines are dominating the health news, and with good reason. The post first appeared on Science-Based Medicine . → https://is.gd/laIw2E | 14:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +3212 cases (now 765190), +26644 tests (now 9.6 million) since 20 hours ago | 14:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Minimal data about 2nd dose if J&J vaccine getting a lot of PR and attention, based on 17 participants antibody levels and unrelated to Delta infections. Where are the results from their 2-dose trial?https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/25/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine#j-j-johnson-and-johnson-second-dose-booster-shot → https://is.gd/3SPAZs | 14:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: R to @EricTopol: And I love this one:"didn't specify exactly when or how many subjects received the second dose" 😉https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-j-says-covid-19-booster-shots-after-eight-months-supported-by-data-11629888301?mod=hp_lead_pos1 → https://is.gd/50Ideo | 14:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Second J&J vaccine dose boosts antibodies against Covid; age lowered for diabetes screening → https://is.gd/YHJS9R | 15:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Denmark: +778 cases (now 340345), +2 deaths (now 2570), +163548 tests (now 80.2 million) since 22 hours ago | 15:09 |
| Neightbour | ok | 15:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest topics: RE: Proposal to redesignate B.1.631 as recombinant lineage XB: ( Proposal to redesignate B.1.631 as recombinant lineage XB · Issue #189 · cov-lineages/pango-designation · GitHub ) Analysis by Marina Escalera-Zamudio 1,2 , Hugo Gildardo Castelán Sánchez 1,3 , Luis José Delaye Arredondo 1,4 , Bernardo [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/cF96Lu | 15:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Quite the headlinehttps://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/08/kristi-noem-south-dakota-covid @VanityFair by @besslevin and it's not @TheOnion → https://is.gd/8RjoHE | 15:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Breakthrough infections in Bahrain among over 1 million vaccinees, including Delta wave, comparison of 4 different vaccines and outcomes among unvaccinated https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-828021/v1particular vulnerability of Sinopharm noted @DrSidMukherjee and colleagues → https://is.gd/oojTra | 16:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: us: Additional Dose of J&J COVID-19 Vaccine Supports Booster Shot → https://is.gd/3ee3GL | 16:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Serbia: +2327 cases (now 748693), +7 deaths (now 7233), +15313 tests (now 4.9 million) since a day ago — El Salvador: +1374 cases (now 94060), +12432 tests (now 1.2 million) since 6 hours ago — St. Kitts and Nevis: +46 cases (now 929), +255 tests (now 29973) since 14 hours ago — Anguilla: +8 cases (now 174), +1825 tests (now 38936) since 3 days ago | 16:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: A very consistent pattern of vaccination protection and breakthroughs in the Delta waveHere New York City, via @BobLu6 1. Breakthrough (B) cases increase but so does the protection grow for vaccines2. Modest rise in B hospitalizations but marked and increase protection by 💉💉 → https://is.gd/5vUWNN | 16:47 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +11642 cases (now 3.9 million) since 22 hours ago — Portugal: +3062 cases (now 1.0 million), +16 deaths (now 17674) since a day ago — Norway: +1227 cases (now 151486), +3 deaths (now 814) since 23 hours ago — Haiti: +87 cases (now 20833), +1 deaths (now 584), +2186 tests (now 107702) since 12 hours ago | 17:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): COVID-19 Vaccination and Breakthrough Infections Among Persons With Immunocompromising Conditions in the United States → https://is.gd/dOqtNx | 17:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Study of the EpiVacCorona Vaccine With the Involvement of Volunteers Aged 60 Years and Above → https://is.gd/D1ZFjK | 17:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from LitCovid: (news): Comparative study of the interaction of ivermectin with proteins of interest associated with SARS-CoV-2: A computational and biophysical approach. → https://is.gd/GzvYt6 | 17:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): NIV in Covid-19 Respiratory Failure → https://is.gd/CYbhbN | 17:54 |
| anarcat | hi | 17:54 |
| anarcat | has there been any confirmation of what the threshold is for collective immunity in the vaccination campaign? i keep seeing the number "75%" but that has not, as far as i know, been validated with scientific studies yet | 17:55 |
| anarcat | it was just a wild guess, so i'm wondering if we know better now, particular with the impact of the delta variant | 17:55 |
| specing | it keeps going up with new variants | 17:57 |
| anarcat | https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2021/what-is-herd-immunity-and-how-can-we-achieve-it-with-covid-19 seems to say "70%" and has a positive outlook | 17:58 |
| anarcat | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2 is basically the exact opposite | 17:58 |
| anarcat | ouch https://globalnews.ca/news/8139179/ontario-covid-herd-immunity-children-under-12-report/ | 18:00 |
| LjL | "70%" is absolutely outdated | 18:02 |
| anarcat | right | 18:02 |
| anarcat | yet it still shows up in a lot of dashboards | 18:02 |
| LjL | imaginary's fault | 18:02 |
| LjL | i also see "100% protection against hospitalization/death" from people *and governments* | 18:03 |
| LjL | even though that comes from a stupid press release that should have never stated that in those terms in the first place | 18:03 |
| LjL | anyway with Delta i don't think there *is* a herd immunity threshold unless/until we have Delta-specific vaccines, or intranasal vaccines | 18:04 |
| LjL | the virus happily infects vaccinated people and carries on infecting others from there. at reduced rates, but not reduced enough for there to be a meaningful herd immunity threshold | 18:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Enhancing COVID Rehabilitation With Technology → https://is.gd/UIf7Cb | 18:05 |
| anarcat | i see | 18:05 |
| anarcat | so the idea that the vaccine would keep inoculated people from propagating the virus has been thrown out by delta? | 18:06 |
| anarcat | that's depressing | 18:06 |
| LjL | it may lesson propagation, depending on who you ask (and anyway it lessens infection so it lessens propagation by extension) | 18:06 |
| LjL | but mostly yeah | 18:07 |
| LjL | even before Delta, it wasn't really *known* whether or not vaccinated-but-infected people would not infect others | 18:07 |
| LjL | one study found that in household transmissions, the vaccine reduced them by around 50% | 18:08 |
| LjL | but that was in addition to the much more lessened risk of infection | 18:08 |
| LjL | but that's not so much lessened anymore | 18:08 |
| LjL | %links household transmission | 18:08 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/news/2021/march/covid-19-vaccine-linked-to-a-reduction-in-transmission/ (Covid-19 vaccine linked to a reduction in transmission) in a Scottish study, not yet published, examining around 300000 healthcare workers, and finding that compared to unvaccinated workers, vaccination results in a 30% reducting in COVID-19 among members of the [... want %more?] | 18:08 |
| LjL | 30% eh, i remembered something more, maybe it was more in the final study | 18:09 |
| LjL | %more | 18:09 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, [...] vaccinated workers' households after the first shot, and 54% after the second, nothing that this of course underestimates protection because household members can also be infected from other sources → https://paste.ee/p/4VKzC | 18:09 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, [...] Gutiérrez 1,2,5 1 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK 2 Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica ( CoViGen-Mex )* 3 CONACYT-UAEM-Centro de Investigación en Dinámica Celular 4 Departamento de Ingeniería Genética, Unidad Irapuato, CINVESTAV, Mexico 5 Colegio de Ciencias Biológicas y Ambientales, Universidad San Francisco de Quito [...] → https://paste.ee/p/e73gi | 18:09 |
| LjL | oh, after the first shot, 54% after the second | 18:09 |
| LjL | the pastebin also links to a Public Health England report which found roughly the same thing | 18:10 |
| LjL | so before Delta, you could expect a 50% reduction in transmission which added to the reduction in getting it in the first place | 18:10 |
| LjL | although household transmission, i suspect, is going to be higher than general transmission. you just spend a lot of time inside the same enclosed space | 18:11 |
| LjL | but it's also the easiest one to estimate | 18:11 |
| anarcat | interesting, thanks! | 18:13 |
| anarcat | what is that brainstorm bot, it looks awesome | 18:13 |
| anarcat | so with delta what's the %? | 18:13 |
| imaginary | LjL: lol no u | 18:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from BioNTech: Pfizer and BioNTech Initiate Rolling Submission of Supplemental Biologics License Application to U.S. FDA for Booster Dose of COMIRNATY® in Individuals 16 and Older: New Phase 3 data show booster (third) dose of COMIRNATY induces significant SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody titers and demonstrated a favorable safety and tolerability [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/nit9iC | 18:17 |
| LjL | Arachnophine, pretty much 0% i'm afraid, although that's by extrapolation from viral loads which are extrapolated from cycle thresholds | 18:18 |
| LjL | anarcat, ↑ | 18:18 |
| LjL | anarcat, also Brainstorm does a few things but in the case of %links it just searches through the things that are in the github link in the channel topic | 18:18 |
| LjL | %cases US | 18:18 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: United States has had 38.6 million confirmed cases (11.7% of all people) and 640372 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 15 minutes ago. 570.4 million tests were done (6.8% positive). 202.0 million were vaccinated (61.3%). +215371 cases, +323306 vaccines since 22 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20States | 18:18 |
| LjL | it also does this | 18:18 |
| LjL | %vax AstraZeneca | 18:18 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, AZD 1222 is a Non-replicating viral vector vaccine developed in UK by Oxford University + AstraZeneca + Cobra Biologics + Oxford Biomedica + Merck KGaA + Halix BV + Pall Corporation + SGS + India's Serum Institute + Catalent Biologics + CSL Limited, which started distribution initially on January 2021 → https://covidvax.org/covid19-vaccine/OxfordUni | 18:18 |
| LjL | and this | 18:18 |
| LjL | and, but it's not very good | 18:18 |
| LjL | %papers viral load delta | 18:19 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, 10 results out of 21965: SARS-CoV-2: Viral Loads of Exhaled Breath and Oronasopharyngeal Specimens in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 by Madiha Malik et al, dated 2021-07-10 → https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.012 [... want %more?] | 18:19 |
| LjL | imaginary, https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-828021/v1_covered.pdf may be of interest although i find some things i don't understand (namely if the three good vaccines are so much better than Sinopharm yet Sinopharm is considerably better than nothing, even with Delta, then how come that doesn't mean 99% or so protection with Pfizer and instead we're talking about 80% or less) | 18:21 |
| p0indexter | good question | 18:23 |
| anarcat | i may be naive, but https://covidly.com/ looks pretty awesome because the number of vaccinated grows much faster than the number of cases :) | 18:26 |
| p0indexter | break throughs not withstanding | 18:26 |
| anarcat | but maybe one problem with that is that all vaccines are tracked but not all cases are tracked | 18:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Conversations to Understand and Overcome Vaccine Hesitancy: August is National Immunization Month. With the FDA’s approval of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, providers will likely be having more conversations with patients on the topic. Motivational interviewing is an emerging strategy for providers to consider in their [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/seWR16 | 18:28 |
| LjL | meeh we need some good news or at least good ways of interpreting data we have, so please be naive | 18:30 |
| p0indexter | im certain the number of pre vax positive isnt zero...and i would go out on a limb its at least an order of magnitude greater than official estimates | 18:31 |
| p0indexter | even 2 order of magnitude is unrealisticly low i say 2 + | 18:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +7539 cases (now 4.5 million), +59 deaths (now 128914), +244420 tests (now 82.6 million) since a day ago — Kosovo: +2541 cases (now 134818), +14 deaths (now 2370) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +35475 cases (now 6.6 million), +830513 tests (now 264.7 million) since 16 hours ago [... want %more?] | 18:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: R to @EricTopol: From a global perspective, these comparative data from Bahrain are quite important. Sinopharm and Sputnik vaccines are used widely throughout the world, but little data on their effectiveness has been published to date, especially w/r to Delta (none). → https://is.gd/1uZxpg | 19:01 |
| p0indexter | i hope there is currently rnd on a better solution for vaccines...is recearch looking into a more effective vaccine or are we stuck(pun intended) w the current choices? | 19:05 |
| p0indexter | research* | 19:06 |
| nixonix | you guys saw that japanese paper that claimed they found four mutations would make wuhan line based vaccines nonfunctional? any thoughts? | 19:16 |
| p0indexter | how do sputnik/sinopharm differ from the vaccines used in u.s. europe..i havent heard them discredited. its as if by omission too cause one to assume you have just the choices presented to you by u.s. health authority | 19:16 |
| p0indexter | nixonix: i didnt read that | 19:19 |
| nixonix | some of those chinese manufacturers have several vaccines (in development), but you mean the inactivated whole virus vacc i suppose. thats is very different from sputnik (which is adenovirus vector vacc like az) | 19:20 |
| nixonix | ljl you prob saw that, since topol linked it? | 19:20 |
| p0indexter | this does not surprise me | 19:20 |
| nixonix | chinese whole virus vaccines dont seem to be efficient vs delta, which might mean inactivated whole virus vaccines are not a good approach. and relevance of using N epitopes neither (they could still improve the lasting of protection, perhaps) | 19:23 |
| nixonix | the problem is the upper respiratory, which needs high circulating ab titers present especially with delta and its high viral loads (or otherwise using nasal IgA inducing vaccines, probably on top of these iv vaccines) | 19:25 |
| nixonix | and when the levels drop fast (IgG, in a few months), not much of it migrates to upper respiratory, so they dont prevent infection or upper respiratory symptoms efficiently | 19:26 |
| nixonix | we need those nasal vaccines to stop it spreading around, and causing breakthroughs | 19:26 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.22.457114v1 | 19:27 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.biorxiv.org: The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant is poised to acquire complete resistance to wild-type spike vaccines | bioRxiv | 19:27 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/macroliter/status/1430182166294585352 | 19:27 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Jeremy Kamil (@macroliter): "A couple problems with this preprint that do not support the alarmist take is pushes… 🧵 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.22.457114v1" | nitter | 19:27 |
| nixonix | yeah they used kidney cell line that apparently doesnt have tmprss2. but it isnt essential. it depends on cells. so those mutations could still worsen the pathology eg in kidney cells (not, if the vaccines would prevent the infection efficiently enough, but currently they dont do that with delta, esp after months) | 19:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Chile: +399 cases (now 1.6 million), +17 deaths (now 36718), +38029 tests (now 20.0 million) since a day ago — Canada: +1251 cases (now 1.5 million) since 16 hours ago | 19:30 |
| nixonix | the two primary pathways for cell infection are plasma membrane fusion which needs tmprss2 for secondary cleavate from S2' to initiate the fusion. but the other endosomal pathway doesnt use it. it can happen to many cells, but usually not since the primary pathway is more efficient, especially with pre-primed cleaving by furin in golgi apparatus | 19:32 |
| nixonix | then theres syncytia, especially with delta... | 19:32 |
| nixonix | lot of those cell entry mechanisms arent even 100% confirmed, or everything about them isnt known | 19:33 |
| nixonix | like what is the role of ace2 shedding? from virus point of view. how does it help it? | 19:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: R to @EricTopol: The largest healthcare company in the world makes headlines everywhere for a "9-fold antibody response" in 17 people. Incredible. Is that the best you can offer >@JNJNews? → https://is.gd/QWTcLT | 19:35 |
| LjL | nixonix, ugh no i hadn't seen it, you're always so full of good news :( | 19:41 |
| nixonix | i would paste lot of good news, if i just saw such somewhere | 19:42 |
| LjL | Brainstorm doesn't post *everything* Topol posts, because it checks all its RSS sources every few minutes, and if there's more than one new thing, it only posts one of them (seems weird, may not be the best idea, but otherwise it would spam a lot) | 19:42 |
| LjL | nixonix, i know :( | 19:43 |
| nixonix | every news (which is correct) is good news, because it gives more ways for to react, and improves knowledge | 19:44 |
| nixonix | sure some things, like chromosome or brain damage happening to every infected (which we dont know if it does), would be plain bad news. but it happens and has happened anyway (if it does), whether we know about it yet or not. so its good to know anyway | 19:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Moderna Files BLA with FDA for its COVID-19 Vaccine: The company announced it filed its submission to prevent COVID-19 in individuals 18 years of age and older. → https://is.gd/dCwAYX | 19:46 |
| archpc | Speaking of, brain fog has been horrible | 19:46 |
| LjL | i see he's being snarky against J&J making ridiculously small studies | 19:46 |
| nixonix | now when we dont know, they just let it spread among kids, thinking that probably nothing too bad happens. or isnt proved anyway | 19:46 |
| nixonix | i saw an anecdotal story on jnj efficiency (which could be lie, who knows). ill try to find the tweet | 19:47 |
| LjL | nixonix, what's this Japan thing? i don't see it in Topol's tweets | 19:48 |
| LjL | archpc, with low saturation your brain won't be getting a whole lot of oxygen i guess :( | 19:48 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1430199339834478592 | 19:48 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "With further evolution of Delta, there could be considerably more resistance to vaccines. 3 of 4 mutations (w/ Delta) studied here have already been seen @GISAID [...] | 19:48 |
| LjL | oh i was searching for "Japan", he doesn't explicitly mention it i guess | 19:49 |
| LjL | nixonix, anyway lately i've been feeling like i don't really acquire new information, just a confused mess of studies that either contradict each other or that i remember incorrectly or can't quite understand, i have brain fog even before COVID, yes i know i should get l-theanine ;( i will get it maybe when i'm back in the city, now it's tricky to order stuff online | 19:50 |
| nixonix | ill try to search the jnj story later, it was in some thread. they had 10/10 vaccineted people moving sisters stuff, 7/10 vaccinated got infected. all of them with jnj. those 3 that didnt, were mrna vaccinated | 19:51 |
| LjL | nixonix, they're trying to make the case for a booster? | 19:52 |
| LjL | "when four common mutations were introduced into the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the Delta variant (Delta 4+), some BNT162b2-immune sera lost neutralizing activity and enhanced the infectivity" | 19:53 |
| LjL | AND ENHANCED THE INFECTIVITY? | 19:53 |
| LjL | does this mean ADE? | 19:53 |
| nixonix | its all mess anyway. i know stuff from here and there, but its not the same than if you had the basic structure on biology and immunology well understood | 19:54 |
| nixonix | and even if you had, its a mess anyway, since lots of stuff isnt known, or just poorly understood | 19:54 |
| LjL | nixonix, yes, during the first few months of this channel's existence, i felt like it empowered me, both by giving me more information and being able to inform others (like "ignore the WHO, *use* masks, they *are* useful"... i was just telling like 10 people, but it felt better than nothing) | 19:55 |
| LjL | but nowadays it just gives me fear and confusion | 19:55 |
| nixonix | some type of ade they seem to suggest | 19:55 |
| LjL | anyway, the tweet below the one you linked is a retweet of a critique to the study: https://twitter.com/macroliter/status/1430182166294585352 | 19:56 |
| LjL | but it's making points i have no idea about, involving slightly different ACE2 receptors in cell cultures used | 19:57 |
| nixonix | there could be ways to prevent that cell membrane fusion. hcq apparently does the trick for the cathepsin L mediated pathway, so similar approach might be possible for plasma envelope | 19:57 |
| LjL | "Another problem for the authors’ overblown claims of “poised for total vaccine escape” Face screaming in fear … we already know that mRNA vaccines defend very well against disease.. even from the beta (B.1.351) variant.. which is MORE immune evasive than delta! | 19:59 |
| LjL | Content cover image" ← but they're talking about a very specific Delta + *some mutations* | 19:59 |
| LjL | meh | 20:00 |
| LjL | i don't like this person's attitude | 20:00 |
| LjL | "If the authors really want to show delta is poised for “total vaccine escape” & really a concern, then they need a mouse, ferret, [....] I don’t think they will see this.. which is why they don’t show it." ← why assume bad faith? maybe they just didn't have enough means/funding for in vivo studies | 20:00 |
| nixonix | if not, then there are suggested inhibitors for HR1/HR2 complex, preventing S2 collapse and initiating the fusion | 20:01 |
| nixonix | not sure if they have been tried in animal models yet | 20:01 |
| dTal | also isn't that textbook gain of function research | 20:02 |
| dTal | kind of feel like that's the most monumentally stupid piece of research you could possibly suggest right now | 20:02 |
| dTal | "let's engineer a vaccine resistant covid strain in humanized mice" | 20:03 |
| nixonix | yeah, theres that | 20:03 |
| nixonix | luckily terrorists cant easily do those in basement. i hope | 20:03 |
| LjL | "And in fact, we are due for a new influenza pandemic in 2025 (according to Maurice Hilleman)" ← yay? also why? | 20:03 |
| LjL | dTal, well i don't know quite yet if they used live virus or a pseudovirus or whatever... even if it's in vitro, using the live virus with modifications could be pretty dangerous | 20:05 |
| nixonix | Using this logic, Hilleman predicted that an H2 virus, similar to the ones that had caused pandemics in 1889 and 1957, would cause the next pandemic, which would begin in 2025. Hilleman made his prediction in 2005, months before his death | 20:05 |
| nixonix | mabe based on frequency they appear | 20:05 |
| LjL | okay, it was a pseudovirus | 20:06 |
| LjL | anyway the possibility of ADE is scary as hell | 20:07 |
| nixonix | Hilleman observed two patterns in these outbreaks. First, the types of hemagglutinins occurred in this order: H2, H3, H1, H2, H3, H1. Second, the intervals between pandemics of the same type were exactly 68 years. | 20:07 |
| LjL | and would avenge people like Vanden Schomething, right imaginary | 20:07 |
| nixonix | For example, an H3 pandemic occurred in 1900 and 1968, and an H2 pandemic occurred in 1889 and 1957. Sixty-eight years was just enough time for an entire generation of people to be born, raised, and die | 20:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Albania: +844 cases (now 141365), +3 deaths (now 2483), +7725 tests (now 1.0 million) since a day ago — Moldova: +559 cases (now 265817), +6 deaths (now 6380), +6260 tests (now 1.5 million) since a day ago — Morocco: +8008 cases (now 829137), +85 deaths (now 12079), +49560 tests (now 8.8 million) since a day ago [... want %more?] | 20:07 |
| LjL | nixonix, numerology? | 20:08 |
| nixonix | probably on immune memory people gain during their life, from types of viruses that are around | 20:08 |
| imaginary | LjL: bosschen? haha | 20:09 |
| LjL | imaginary, i mean, despite the nonsense, some of the things he wrote did mostly come true already | 20:09 |
| imaginary | LjL: overblown claims tho, had he been reasonable i don't think people would've disregarded him so easily | 20:09 |
| LjL | also large parts of the things that are probably nonsense are also things i don't understand because too technical | 20:10 |
| imaginary | he did claim a supervirus was gonna hit us (iirc by august) | 20:10 |
| LjL | imaginary, yes, well, that's what's concerning, it's easy to just dismiss him as a looney, anti-vax or whatever, but what if he's mostly right just taking the claims too far | 20:10 |
| nixonix | yeah, i already pasted that tweet earlier (the critique) | 20:10 |
| imaginary | LjL: yup, that was my concern when i found out about him | 20:11 |
| imaginary | there's def some merit to them | 20:11 |
| imaginary | it's just funny that when he was asked to actually publish something he just started posting endlessly on social media and the antivaxxers started embracing him | 20:11 |
| LjL | imaginary, now if the next ugly variant is actually going to exhibit ADE... *shudder*, he's gonna be too right for my liking | 20:11 |
| imaginary | ye | 20:12 |
| nixonix | did vanden b forsee anything relevant, other than more dangerous variants to appear? | 20:12 |
| imaginary | i've been crossing my fingers for weeks now | 20:12 |
| LjL | i'd have to reread his "paper" | 20:12 |
| imaginary | nixonix: he basically claims that vaccination mid pandemic will actually fuel the super variants | 20:12 |
| nixonix | nah, thats been said by many, but it hasnt happened. anyways lots of people would have died, if we had collected like 15B doses and then started to vaccinate people | 20:13 |
| imaginary | yup | 20:14 |
| imaginary | variants popping up is only natural | 20:14 |
| imaginary | but delta showing up has made people give more credit to his claims than necessary honestly | 20:14 |
| LjL | variants specifically evading the vaccine, though... can be natural, but also not | 20:14 |
| nixonix | btw, when was 617.2 first discovered? if i recall it was 2020 | 20:15 |
| imaginary | what's the endgame if we don't vaccinate tho? | 20:15 |
| imaginary | nixonix: yea, dec 2020 i think | 20:15 |
| LjL | meaning: they can be natural because the vaccines very specifically target the S-protein so if that changes, it might evade the vaccine to some extent. but then developing mutations *specifically because* they evade the vaccine, which is presumably what would happen with variants so nasty that the vaccine makes them *worse*, is a bit different | 20:15 |
| dTal | imaginary: it bounces around killing a lot of people until enough people have enough immunity to bring R below 1, globally, and then it fades away | 20:16 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1430219256143118338 | 20:16 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): "One reason I concentrate so much on our immune landscapes is that the virus must as well. It has a deep bench of useful mutations but it depends upon hitting [...] | 20:16 |
| imaginary | it fading away surely wouldn't happen in years tho right? delta is showing us that it's not gonna play nice | 20:17 |
| LjL | i don't know imaginary, de-facto was strongly insisting some months ago that we should wait before using the vaccine and then vaccinate *everyone in the shortest possible amount of time*, but i thought it was unrealistic | 20:17 |
| imaginary | maybe even decades idk | 20:17 |
| dTal | "some months ago" like a year ago | 20:17 |
| imaginary | LjL: i mean, in an ideal world that would probably be best, i'm sure everyone would agree | 20:17 |
| imaginary | production and distribution would have to be crazy efficient | 20:17 |
| imaginary | it's just not possible | 20:18 |
| nixonix | thinking the next bad one would be efficient immune evasion variant. we already have those E484K variants, some of those or their successors would be prime candidate imo. sure it could be something totally different too | 20:18 |
| dTal | I think he was saying it before they started vaccinating people | 20:18 |
| imaginary | there's also the fact that a bunch of people don't wanna get vaccinated hah | 20:19 |
| imaginary | the US surely had enough doses to vaccinate everyone and they did a good enough job on distribution but it just wasn't good enough | 20:19 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1430265085704826880 | 20:20 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): "The reason I discount ADE as important in COVID is that it stands alone as an epi finding that has yet to be reported. More easily shown in cell culture or [...] | 20:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: In Israel's Delta wave, a comparison of natural infection immunity versus 2-dose Pfizer mRNA vaccination for reinfection or breakthrough infections, respectively.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1 → https://is.gd/R2Mo1g | 20:20 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1430171298278350855 | 20:22 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): "Another paper claims delta gets to higher viral load- and now almost 2x more like to lead to pneumonia. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance- [...] | 20:22 |
| imaginary | yikes | 20:23 |
| imaginary | LjL: now i won't be able to get ADE out of my head for the rest of time tyvm | 20:24 |
| imaginary | :x | 20:24 |
| nixonix | June 1 to August 14, 2021, when the Delta variant was dominant in Israel. Results: SARS-CoV-2-naive vaccinees had a 13.06-fold (95% CI, 8.08 to 21.11) increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant compared to those previously infected, when the first event (infection or vaccination) occurred during January and February of 2021 | 20:26 |
| dTal | wow | 20:28 |
| imaginary | this channel is not good for me :x | 20:28 |
| dTal | imaginary: wait until you learn that NOT all dogs go to heaven | 20:29 |
| imaginary | surely the strategy should now be: get vaccinated -> get covid -> ??? -> profit! | 20:29 |
| imaginary | dTal: :((((((((((( stop | 20:29 |
| dTal | imaginary: it's tempting to conclude that but the spectre of long covid looms | 20:30 |
| dTal | if you can avoid covid forever, then that's the optimal play | 20:30 |
| nixonix | After adjusting for comorbidities, we found a 27.02-fold risk (95% CI, 12.7 to 57.5) for symptomatic breakthrough infection as opposed to symptomatic reinfection (P<0.001) (Table 2b) | 20:30 |
| imaginary | dTal: yeah, i wasn't being overly serious | 20:31 |
| imaginary | nixonix: wow | 20:31 |
| nixonix | Nine cases of COVID-19-related hospitalizations were recorded, 8 of which were in the vaccinated group and 1 in the previously infected group (Table S1). No COVID-19-related deaths were recorded in our cohorts | 20:31 |
| nixonix | controlled for lots of covariates | 20:31 |
| imaginary | those CIs aren't very encouraging either... | 20:32 |
| nixonix | somebody just claimed, we are probably all going to get it within a year, vaccinated or not, when they just let it rip. 10 weeks or so (if people stop being careful, which probably isnt happening that soon, tho) | 20:33 |
| imaginary | let it rip meaning stop all measures/mandates/etc? | 20:34 |
| dTal | the UK is letting it rip now | 20:34 |
| nixonix | i noticed big changes in owid stringency index. france went on top in europe. top spot used to be germany, but their index just went way down | 20:35 |
| dTal | surprisingly the growth rate is slow | 20:35 |
| nixonix | not sure how accurately they consider regional differencies for big countries, though. or how those vaccine passports affect | 20:35 |
| dTal | but we *just* hit the "bounce" from the Delta wave, whatever that ,eams | 20:35 |
| dTal | means | 20:35 |
| LjL | imaginary, i'm not sure this channel is good for anyone, i've been kind of pondering how to make it a place of hope as well as a place of despair, but as nixonix said, <nixonix> i would paste lot of good news, if i just saw such somewhere | 20:35 |
| dTal | okay here's some good news | 20:36 |
| dTal | https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated | 20:36 |
| dTal | tl;dr 97%+ efficacy of Pfizer against hospitalization from Delta in Israel for under 40s, 100% for under 30s | 20:36 |
| imaginary | ah yeah, simpson's paradox stat | 20:37 |
| LjL | nixonix, what are you citing now from Israel, i lost track | 20:37 |
| imaginary | definitely good news | 20:37 |
| nixonix | there was that study on abs and immune cells which looked good for vaccinated vs natural _mild_ infection | 20:37 |
| nixonix | ill find it, its good news... | 20:37 |
| dTal | nixonix, do you have any thoughts about what causes "waves"? | 20:38 |
| nixonix | yeah. strong expontential growth cant continue for many weeks, without reaching 100% | 20:38 |
| LjL | but it stops before reaching 100% | 20:39 |
| nixonix | people change their behavior, and also control measures are used when cases go up | 20:39 |
| nixonix | for uk, they reached lots of natural immunity, which with summer effect and vaccine helped to suppress 1.1.7. wasnt enough for delta, but then they reached the immunity threshold for that too in _some_ groups - just not in all | 20:40 |
| dTal | so it's a temporary herd immunity effect | 20:41 |
| nixonix | when i came back here in june, the first thing i talked about, was about croatia and florida where cases dramatically reduced in december and january. my idea was, that it happened in some groups only, which were those spreading it most | 20:41 |
| dTal | it's quite distinct when it hits the ceiling | 20:41 |
| dTal | and it doesn't always corrrelate with measures or behavioral changes | 20:41 |
| dTal | the exponential growth dies overnight | 20:41 |
| nixonix | and also talked about how traditional infection models dont work, when its about different groups, and their own immunity levels and thresholds. and good multi-group models that really accurately correspond to even single city, are very hard to build | 20:43 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7247502/ | 20:43 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: A multi-group SEIRA model for the spread of COVID-19 among heterogeneous populations | 20:43 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated? ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/DW72NED7 ) | 20:43 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant is poised to acquire complete resistance to wild-type spike vaccines ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/QAS2RC7H ) | 20:43 | |
| nixonix | .title https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.11562 | 20:45 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From arxiv.org: [2105.11562] Adaptive and optimized COVID-19 vaccination strategies across geographical regions and age groups | 20:45 |
| nixonix | thats for vaccinations, but similar problem with infection models, they usually omit geographical and different groups behavioral and interaction differencies for simplicity. so the virus always surprises the epidemiologists | 20:47 |
| LjL | <p0indexter> how do sputnik/sinopharm differ from the vaccines used in u.s. europe..i havent heard them discredited. ← https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-828021/v1_covered.pdf this does kind of discredit Sinopharm at least (with the caveat it has been used more and earlier, although they tried to correct for that, but de-facto things they didn't do enough to correct for that... but still the numbers are dramatically different from the other vaccines) | 20:48 |
| LjL | ho they're gone :( | 20:48 |
| LjL | %tell p0indexter: "how do sputnik/sinopharm differ from the vaccines used in u.s. europe..i havent heard them discredited." ← https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-828021/v1_covered.pdf this does kind of discredit Sinopharm at least (with the caveat it has been used more and earlier, although they tried to correct for that, but de-facto things they didn't do enough to correct for that... but still the numbers are dramatically different from the othe | 20:48 |
| LjL | r vaccines) | 20:48 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass p0indexter your message when they are around. | 20:48 |
| LjL | argh | 20:49 |
| dTal | they'll get the idea I'm sure | 20:49 |
| LjL | and i can't believe i've not added this Bahrein study | 20:50 |
| LjL | basically whenever i find a study interesting and understandable enough to read through it... | 20:50 |
| LjL | i do that, instead of adding it to the list | 20:50 |
| LjL | wut. i *had* added it | 20:50 |
| LjL | ... i tagged it "Bahrain" instead of "Bahrein" -.- | 20:51 |
| LjL | or vice versa | 20:51 |
| LjL | apparently it's one in italian and the other in english | 20:51 |
| LjL | i'll tag it both :P | 20:51 |
| LjL | Zotero should have tag aliases | 20:51 |
| twomoon | zotero is kewl | 20:52 |
| nixonix | in finland i just estimated (comparing fatalities to belgium, who was honest with them in the spring 2020), that finland had around 2% infected by the end of 2020, and now perhaps just over 6% | 20:52 |
| LjL | well it could be better | 20:52 |
| LjL | like, i would like Pfizer and BioNTech to be the same tag for the purposes of this group | 20:52 |
| twomoon | da-les recomendaciones | 20:52 |
| nixonix | but its way higher in some groups on some areas naturally | 20:52 |
| LjL | twomoon, it's already a feature request https://forums.zotero.org/discussion/8197/feature-request-tag-aliases | 20:53 |
| LjL | but they think it's unnecessary apparently https://forums.zotero.org/discussion/28077/making-different-tags-mean-the-same | 20:53 |
| nixonix | could it be enough, that it caused the cases go down in metropolitan area recently? when our measures are a joke. some of them were tightened a bit, bars closing on those areas now 11 pm instead of 1 am, and some event restrictions | 20:53 |
| LjL | "Someone could write a plugin to do this pretty easily, but no, this won't happen in Zotero itself anytime soon (if ever). " | 20:53 |
| LjL | i've already seen this sort of attitude in response to other feature requests | 20:54 |
| twomoon | zotero said that? | 20:54 |
| LjL | no, someone. but it sounds authoritative so i assume it's a zotero developer | 20:54 |
| nixonix | maybe it was just that those around 20 yo dont have money to go in bars, during the end of month. and they go up again in early sep, lets see | 20:54 |
| twomoon | lol yeah | 20:54 |
| imaginary | LjL: is zotero foss? | 20:54 |
| LjL | which is correct, it's this guy https://github.com/dstillman?tab=repositories | 20:54 |
| LjL | imaginary, yes, although soe of their online stuff is paid | 20:55 |
| LjL | but you can self-host, or just use the standalone application | 20:55 |
| imaginary | interesting | 20:55 |
| nixonix | anyone checked for 18-24 yo infection rates, if they correlate with that theory? rasing in the first half of month, then going down on second? | 20:55 |
| imaginary | i wonder if i can annoy myself enough to actually implement tag alises | 20:55 |
| nixonix | rising | 20:55 |
| LjL | imaginary, at least now i know if i end up with two equivalent tag, i can rename one instead of going through *every* paper and changing the tag... | 20:56 |
| nixonix | its bars and inside gathering anyway. the primary driver being imported cases from aboard naturally, but when they jsut dont want to tighten the borders enough, its bars and inside events. controlling them is usually enough (along with borders) | 20:56 |
| LjL | nixonix, in italy i wouldn't feel certain at all that the dates the cases are *recorded* is the same date as the cases *happened* :\ | 20:57 |
| nixonix | at least for us it would be, during the summer with delta and this vaccine coverage. after summer maybe not | 20:57 |
| nixonix | so preventing people from walk outside a la sidney isnt helping, but actually hurts because ineffective measures are not tolerated long. the problem starts when they go to cafe or toilets. less for stores, but depends on size, ceiling hights, ventilation etc | 20:59 |
| nixonix | let them walk but must piss in park... | 20:59 |
| nixonix | sydney, heights, other typos... | 21:00 |
| nixonix | aussie officials said in july they didnt have single confirmed outside transmission | 21:01 |
| nixonix | those wedding etc superspreading events might have happened in toilet, kitchen etc, instead of really outside | 21:02 |
| Arsanerit | toilets? | 21:03 |
| Arsanerit | Mass gatherings in toilets? | 21:03 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/outdoor-transmission-accounts-for-0-1-of-state-s-covid-19-cases-1.4529036 | 21:03 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.irishtimes.com: Outdoor transmission accounts for 0.1% of State’s Covid-19 cases | 21:03 |
| nixonix | one goes to toilet, then other persons soon after, breathing that air | 21:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: News Scan for Aug 25, 2021: Youth substance use in pandemic Lyme disease and COVID-19 Severe flu and race → https://is.gd/hrRD88 | 21:04 |
| imaginary | is there anything to be done about that honestly? | 21:04 |
| LjL | imaginary, yes, flush with the toilet closed :P | 21:04 |
| LjL | that probably helps with a few things | 21:04 |
| imaginary | lol ~__~ | 21:05 |
| Arsanerit | nixonix: does that actually spread infections much? | 21:05 |
| LjL | seriously, there are some "flush the right way" spearheaders just like there are about masks and so on | 21:05 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, well it was found to be a possible way of infection *once* | 21:05 |
| LjL | i.e. they verified it once, in a hospital, and wrote a paper about it | 21:06 |
| LjL | it might be happening all the time, we just don't know | 21:06 |
| Arsanerit | Oh, I thought that was an elevator. | 21:06 |
| LjL | i remember one about a toilet | 21:06 |
| Arsanerit | Ok. | 21:06 |
| LjL | there might be one about an elevator too | 21:06 |
| LjL | the one about a toilet was with 40 minutes between one person (who had covid) and the other (who caught it) | 21:06 |
| nixonix | what? toilet trip? idk, but apparently those suspected outside transmissions usually appear to most likely happened inside, when investigated with more depth. like in aus that famous bondi junction transmission, they met inside at cash register after all | 21:07 |
| Arsanerit | I thought that the virus particles / aerosols were dropping to the floor rather quickly after being emitted. | 21:07 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/CPita3/status/1428566133481820168 | 21:08 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: C Pita (@CPita3): "Well, in the past *2 WEEKS* alone, 5 groundbreaking papers have been released, the totality of which leaps over the unreasonably high bar set to establish Airborne Transmission. [...] | 21:08 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, the finer aerosol can stay in the air for hours | 21:08 |
| LjL | and by now it's clear there *is* finer aerosol, not just the infamous "droplets" | 21:08 |
| LjL | (it's still droplets, just much smaller, but whatever) | 21:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Montenegro: +698 cases (now 111736), +5 deaths (now 1695), +4613 tests (now 598701) since a day ago — Spain: +10781 cases (now 4.8 million), +163 deaths (now 83690) since a day ago — Singapore: +120 cases (now 66812), +2 deaths (now 52) since a day ago — Cabo Verde: +94 cases (now 34919), +1 deaths (now 307) since 23 hours ago | 21:09 |
| LjL | nixonix, not "drip", droplets caused by flushing the toilet. at least that's one possible explanation, of course it could just be aerosol from the airways, like in the elevator case | 21:12 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: Ok, I see. | 21:12 |
| nixonix | yeah, im not suddenly starting to close the lid based on some hyptohesis, when this virus kills 2% top (if not capacity of hc exceeded) | 21:13 |
| LjL | even if it doesn't happen with COVID, it seems bad enough to think about in general | 21:13 |
| LjL | https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/could-flushing-public-toilet-plume-spread-coronavirus-cvd | 21:13 |
| LjL | %title | 21:13 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.nationalgeographic.com: Could flushing a public toilet really spread COVID-19? | 21:13 |
| LjL | while https://cen.acs.org/biological-chemistry/infectious-disease/COVID-19-bathroom/98/i38 has illustrations of how p-traps may fail, i guess | 21:14 |
| LjL | annoyingly i don't know what the study i remember reading was, though, where they isolated one specific person who got infected from a toilet (there was criticism i remember, because it was a hospital after all, but they said they confirmed with CCTV cameras and stuff it was the only contact) | 21:15 |
| LjL | %title https://www.binasss.sa.cr/medint/ART12.pdf also | 21:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘Like Tuskegee’: Deep South Jail Treats COVID With Dangerous, Unproven Drug Ivermectin → https://is.gd/4u5C0q | 21:15 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, the URL could not be loaded | 21:15 |
| LjL | bleh "Probable Evidence of Fecal Aerosol Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a | 21:16 |
| LjL | High-Rise Building" | 21:16 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/view/sars-and-plumbing-role-sewage-plays-spreading-disease | 21:16 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.infectioncontroltoday.com: SARS and Plumbing: The Role Sewage Plays in Spreading Disease | 21:16 |
| nixonix | i linked about that event during summer 2020. another link though | 21:16 |
| nixonix | and the other chan i think | 21:16 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 reprograms both adaptive and innate immune responses ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/FWHQ4JC5 ) | 21:23 | |
| dTal | oog, "fecal aerosol" | 21:31 |
| dTal | what a delightful word combo | 21:31 |
| LjL | nixonix, imaginary ↑ going back to earlier on, if this one is reliable, wow, there sure is a BIG difference between people who had a natural infection and those who didn't, which makes some sense (i wonder if it's similar to three vaccine doses) but at the same time they had found that *just* natural immunity had much lower antibody levels than vaccination, iirc | 21:34 |
| LjL | i guess i should look carefully at what happens to people with previous disease and *one* dose, excluding those who got two doses, vs those who got two doses but had no disease. in the abstract they're kind of conflated i think | 21:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for South Africa: +13251 cases (now 2.7 million), +516 deaths (now 80469), +66244 tests (now 16.2 million) since a day ago — Mozambique: +377 cases (now 144032), +9 deaths (now 1822), +3569 tests (now 835922) since a day ago | 21:34 |
| LjL | p0indexter, i sent you a message through the bot | 21:34 |
| imaginary | LjL: yeah, and it does make sense that there's a difference but wow that paper shows a much bigger one than i was expecting | 21:35 |
| imaginary | surely 3 doses not spread out aren't ideal tho, right | 21:36 |
| twomoon | lol dtal | 21:36 |
| twomoon | this channel was in dire need of some levity | 21:36 |
| twomoon | ok back to business | 21:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Long COVID, Big Bills Even With Short Hospital Stays: A new study of COVID's impact points at lasting health problems as 85% of patients hospitalized were still not back to their previous health one month later. → https://is.gd/EB3DYZ | 21:37 |
| nixonix | ljl there are some strange things in this natural immunity vs vaccine induced. like why chinese whole virus vaccines are so bad? (maybe their week protection is still long lasting, who knows) | 21:38 |
| dTal | I don't like this 1 month threshold for long covid, it's far too short | 21:38 |
| dTal | I injured my foot, it probably won't fully heal for a month - do I have "long foot"? | 21:39 |
| nixonix | the difference between mild infection and mrna vaccine induced immunity seems to be killer t-cells, that wane faster with mrna vaccine (3-4 week dose interval), quantity of b-cells, cd4, or neut abs was similar or better with mrna | 21:39 |
| twomoon | interesting nixonix | 21:42 |
| nixonix | but it was mild infections. and there might be other things they didnt measure, like certain specific neut abs, maybe against N epitopes, and possibly some intracellular immune memory effects affecting those immune evasion properties | 21:42 |
| nixonix | like innate immune memory, that is known to exist at some level nowdays | 21:44 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.23.457229v1 | 21:46 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.biorxiv.org: mRNA Vaccination Induces Durable Immune Memory to SARS-CoV-2 with Continued Evolution to Variants of Concern | bioRxiv | 21:46 |
| twomoon | so mRNA produces better memory B-cells? | 21:46 |
| p0indexter | LjL: i dont think i got it im using irssi client and limited to windows that can open. was it highlighted in the open chat? | 21:48 |
| Brainstorm | p0indexter: At 2021-08-25 18:48:56 UTC, LjL told you: "how do sputnik/sinopharm differ from the vaccines used in u.s. europe..i havent heard them discredited." ← https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-828021/v1_covered.pdf this does kind of discredit Sinopharm at least (with the caveat it has been used more and earlier, although they tried to correct for that, but de-facto things they didn't do enough to correct for that... but still the | 21:48 |
| nixonix | about similar. against S-protein | 21:49 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/rishirajgoel/status/1430148938636709897/photo/1 | 21:49 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Rishi Goel (@rishirajgoel): "We also looked at memory B cells against different variants and compared w/ natural infection. Turns out the majority of memory B cells induced by mRNA vax can bind Alpha, [...] | 21:49 |
| p0indexter | interesting thank you | 21:49 |
| LjL | p0indexter, it's just a brainstorm page like that :P | 21:50 |
| twomoon | i want a good variety of memory B-cells | 21:56 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/rishirajgoel/status/1430148915064676352 this is the thread starter, good explanation on that study | 21:57 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Rishi Goel (@rishirajgoel): "How long does immune memory last after #mRNA vax? Immunity vs. variants? What happens when you “boost” w/ vaccine? Our work on durability & evolution of memory responses [...] | 21:57 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, this might be the elevator thing you had in mind? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-superspreader-woman-infects-71-people-in-60-seconds-in-elevator-cdc-study/53JG57MKXGM5FS2HLBUCLVQPRY/ | 21:57 |
| LjL | this being the study https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-1798_article | 21:59 |
| LjL | "Patient B1.1 was the downstairs neighbor of case-patient A0. They used the same elevator in the building but not at the same time and did not have close contact otherwise." | 21:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +13990 cases (now 3.9 million) since 19 hours ago — Mali: +17 cases (now 14795), +1 deaths (now 537), +1437 tests (now 375015) since 17 hours ago | 21:59 |
| twomoon | damn those aerosols linger in still air don't they? | 21:59 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Large SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak Caused by Asymptomatic Traveler, China - Volume 26, Number 9—September 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/BD35KSNF ) | 22:03 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: mRNA Vaccination Induces Durable Immune Memory to SARS-CoV-2 with Continued Evolution to Variants of Concern ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/W42FGBUC ) | 22:03 | |
| nixonix | yeah, but single virions probably dont infect usually. something called infectious unit is the amount needed, what that means in practice (like mucosal cells full on virions or what), you need to find out. i havent read much about stuff like that | 22:04 |
| LjL | by the way, to those using Zotero (so maybe just twomoon), if a study is explained in or was originally linked from a Twitter thread, or there is some other related URL, i sometimes (when i remember) list it in the "Attachments" tab | 22:05 |
| LjL | i guess it would make more sense in the "Related" tab but i don't know how that one works :P | 22:05 |
| nixonix | i think the truth is probably somewhere in between, like those thinking only large droplets matter, and those that everything floats for hours and infects | 22:05 |
| LjL | nixonix, one estimate of the infectious unit was 10 virions, and that was before Delta | 22:06 |
| nixonix | theres probably millions of virions in air from breathing of single infective person. so that number seems low | 22:10 |
| nixonix | large room and one smoking, very soon everybody would smell it. if only 10 virions would be needed, similarly everyone would get infected within seconds | 22:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Waning of immunity becomes manifest at 5-6 months, not 8 months, so this at least aligns with the datahttps://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-administration-plans-covid-19-vaccine-boosters-at-six-months-instead-of-eight-11629919356?mod=djemalertNEWS → https://is.gd/ZxwFBO | 22:12 |
| ublx | 10 virions? | 22:12 |
| nixonix | its probably the amount in cell culture. humans have different innate immune defences, so likelyhood from very small exposure to infect is small (but could happen, if you are unlucky, from that single infectious unit, whatever it is) | 22:14 |
| ublx | but 10 virions, that'd be instant infection just by walking past someone in the street | 22:14 |
| nixonix | some of our hc officials just told in media, that 3rd dose isnt probably needed for 2-3 years... | 22:14 |
| nixonix | they also remain in assumption, that this variant doesnt cause severe symptoms more often | 22:16 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1429958630653169666 | 22:20 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): "Most likely we will learn that vax-associated myocarditis is a transient autoimmune crossreactivity that will fade in the same way as coronavirus vax [...] | 22:20 |
| p0indexter | a prediction that its transient | 22:27 |
| p0indexter | aaaand no residual damage to the heart | 22:27 |
| nixonix | sars2 infection causes several times more often myocarditis, even for young males. i have source somewhere, ill look for it later | 22:28 |
| nixonix | and also 95% of mrna vaccine induced myo/pericardites are mild, and the rest easily treated too. i tried to find if anyone died, but it seems there is not single known fatality from it | 22:29 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1430239407978606596 | 22:29 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): "The ability of virus to crank out new variants would look a lot less scary if our system could really deploy mRNA variant-vaxes on the fly as originally [...] | 22:29 |
| p0indexter | ive had the moderna...both injections and experienced the chest pain | 22:29 |
| nixonix | why is that? why dont we have delta updated jabs yet? is it production and marketing problem (those getting old stock would complain), or something else they found, whatever it is (OAS?) | 22:30 |
| nixonix | immune response might have caused that chest pain. mild heart inflammation? who knows. maybe most colds cause some heart inflammation too. better not execise too soon after cold or vaccination | 22:31 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-05/singapore-investigates-cardiac-arrest-of-vaccinated-teenager | 22:33 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.bloomberg.com: Bloomberg - Are you a robot? | 22:33 |
| p0indexter | i think avoiding exersize after being vaccinated especially if experiencing chest pain is a good idea | 22:36 |
| nixonix | Our results suggest that, even for this high-risk subgroup, the risk of myocarditis from COVID-19 infection is about 5.9 times as great, at a rate of 450 cases per million. Based on the background rate of myocarditis in this population, the expected rate in the absence of COVID-19 for 90 days would be less than 0.1. | 22:37 |
| nixonix | which was this: The highest risk subgroup is 12-17 year old males | 22:38 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v1.full | 22:38 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medrxiv.org: Risk of Myocarditis from COVID-19 Infection in People Under Age 20: A Population-Based Analysis | medRxiv | 22:38 |
| p0indexter | but the data is in flux...what will that stat be in 6 months..spoiler alert seen this movie b4 | 22:39 |
| LjL | freenode/##coronavirus/2020-04-03.log:[14:27:48] <yuriwho> for some viruses you need ~10 virions transferred to establish disease | 22:40 |
| twomoon | inflammation causes myocaditis | 22:40 |
| twomoon | let's stop saying viruses cause myocarditis | 22:40 |
| LjL | nixonix, ublx: i can't completely rule out that the "estimate" i remember was just this, since my memory is mud and i confuse simple statements for studies | 22:40 |
| twomoon | let's stop saying vaccines cause myocarditis | 22:40 |
| p0indexter | << bayesian | 22:41 |
| LjL | twomoon, uhm, if those things cause inflammation, then they do cause myocarditis. just because it's indirect it doesn't make it not causal | 22:41 |
| twomoon | oh yeah true sorry | 22:41 |
| LjL | "let's stop saying that shooters kill people, bullets kill people" :P | 22:42 |
| specing | technically correct heehe | 22:42 |
| LjL | the latter part is correct but it is not a reason to stop saying the former part | 22:42 |
| twomoon | lol | 22:42 |
| p0indexter | i thought 5g was killing....nevermind | 22:42 |
| twomoon | yeah well maybe we can find a way to directly limit inflammation | 22:43 |
| specing | well, where I am even carrying a bullet without a license is illegal | 22:43 |
| LjL | 5G will be killing 3G, based on my cell reception lately | 22:43 |
| specing | high fine | 22:43 |
| p0indexter | video killed the radio star i know that for sure | 22:44 |
| p0indexter | someone ordered levity | 22:45 |
| LjL | twomoon, some doctors insist anti-inflamatories *are* useful during early covid and can keep some people out of hospital. maybe that should be tested on large numbers (or if it already has... then it should be *done widely*), and likewise they should consider prescribing them together with the vaccine. although then you'd have to weigh the effects of an anti-inflammatory, even if simple aspirin or advil doesn't have that many... but really, it does, and if you use | 22:45 |
| LjL | it on billions of people, i'm not sure it won't be worse than myocarditis statistically! | 22:45 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/gerdosi/status/1430262387223957510 | 22:46 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Gabor Erdosi 🧩📄📊🧭 (@gerdosi): "Antibody depending enhancement was a threat that looked possible (or even likely) a year ago, based on experience with historical CoV vaccine attempts. Then it started [...] | 22:46 |
| LjL | p0indexter, now that everything if over FM or even DAB radio, i realized (well, i read, and then i checked, and it was true) that during the night, on MW, i can faintly but clearly enough receive a bunch of foreign stations | 22:46 |
| LjL | so digital radio killed-but-also-resurrected-in-a-different-way the analog radio star | 22:47 |
| nixonix | do they give covid patients antiplatelets, aspirin even, nowdays as a standard treatment or otherwise commonly? | 22:47 |
| nixonix | (aspirin has some antiviral effects too apparently vs covid, as does heparin) | 22:47 |
| LjL | nixonix, i don't know if they do. i know that some italian doctors who've spoken on TV has insisted that in their small trials, aspirin *was* definitely useful | 22:47 |
| nixonix | ask e c k s when he is around and tell me. or if he knows if they do that commonly in some other countries | 22:48 |
| nixonix | and the same for statins etc, those that we speculated last summer | 22:48 |
| specing | LjL: do you have a graph of protection versus time after dose for janssen? | 22:48 |
| LjL | nixonix, in particular they mentioned using either aspirin or nimesuline | 22:50 |
| nixonix | i expect to see off-label vaccinations for <12 yo soon, when pfizer releases their early data. in private clinics. some md's in twitter have already hinted about it | 22:51 |
| nixonix | they are controlled, but in usa it seems that not very accurately | 22:51 |
| LjL | specing, i only seem to have a couple of studies looking at antibodies elicited but not directly protection, https://www.zotero.org/groups/4391070/covid_links/collections/4HEWBIA7/tags/Janssen/items/3R44HIMD/collection i don't have much about J&J | 22:52 |
| nixonix | did that guy get to hospital? | 22:53 |
| LjL | nixonix, archpc you mean? an ambulance came but they couldn't take him anywhere because everywhere was full | 22:55 |
| LjL | they called his conditions / the saturation "concerning" | 22:56 |
| nixonix | the same happened again the next day? i left the chan when he was trying to get in again | 22:56 |
| nixonix | what state was it? | 22:56 |
| LjL | nixonix, the first time he just called hospitals, and they said they had no beds. then one or two days later (i.e. yesterday) he actually called 911 and got an ambulance coming | 22:57 |
| LjL | nixonix, north carolina | 22:57 |
| lastshell | archpc still here ? | 22:57 |
| nixonix | they give patiens released from hospital heparin for like month, and teach them to inject it | 22:58 |
| nixonix | so maybe they should do that in nc if they dont have hospital seats... or even ask if they have aspirin | 22:58 |
| nixonix | thats triage happening right there | 22:59 |
| LjL | well he also talked to his doctor | 22:59 |
| nixonix | (heparin, lmwh or similar, idk) | 23:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Just out @NEJM Important large study of Pfizer mRNA vaccination (>884,000 people and controls) vs Covid infection (>173,000 people and controls) provides clear evidence of safety for 💉side-effects, and compared w/ Covidhttps://www.nejm.org/?query=featured_home&doi=10.1056%2FNEJMoa2110475 → https://is.gd/8eufXa | 23:06 |
| twomoon | ugh, self injection of heparin | 23:07 |
| nixonix | yeah, thats the new normal | 23:09 |
| nixonix | leonardi thinks sars2 kills t-cells via syncytia | 23:09 |
| nixonix | and this study seems to support the idea: | 23:10 |
| nixonix | These unique cellular structures are a direct result of SARS-CoV-2 infection, as the expression of the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein is sufficient to induce a rapid (~45.1 nm/s) membrane fusion to produce syncytium, which could readily internalize multiple lines of lymphocytes to form typical cell-in-cell structures, remarkably leading to the | 23:10 |
| nixonix | death of internalized cells | 23:10 |
| nixonix | This membrane fusion is dictated by a bi-arginine motif within the polybasic S1/S2 cleavage site, which is frequently present in the surface glycoprotein of most highly contagious viruses | 23:11 |
| nixonix | and delta has PRRAR motif replaced with RRRAR | 23:11 |
| LjL | the vaccine carries risk of herpes zoster infection? O.o | 23:13 |
| twomoon | what the hell is syncytia | 23:15 |
| twomoon | multiple cell fusions? | 23:15 |
| twomoon | this virus is just nasty isn't it | 23:16 |
| p0indexter | gain of function | 23:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: COVID-19 patients at higher risk of blood clots after surgery, study shows: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Aug 25, 2021 Venous thromboembolism is nearly twice as likely in those with recent COVID-19. → https://is.gd/jdLO1d | 23:17 |
| nixonix | Lymphadenopathy refers to lymph nodes that are abnormal in size (e.g., greater than 1 cm) or consistency | 23:17 |
| twomoon | Many enveloped viruses induce multinucleated cells (syncytia), reflective of membrane fusion events caused by the same machinery that underlies viral entry. These syncytia are thought to facilitate replication and evasion of the host immune response. | 23:18 |
| twomoon | ok, Syncytia is pretty common | 23:18 |
| nixonix | yep, but its enhanced with delta, and some other variants | 23:18 |
| nixonix | due to that RRRAR, making furing cleavage happen more easily | 23:19 |
| twomoon | delta is a beast | 23:19 |
| nixonix | furin | 23:20 |
| Juliu | Still believing in the fake pandemic and kicking people who think otherwise? | 23:22 |
| nixonix | other than offering possibility to invade non-ace2 and/or non-tmprss2 cells apparently, it enhanced virion production when adjacent cells can fuse together in a huge multi-nucleus virion factory | 23:23 |
| rpifan | oh boy | 23:24 |
| * archpc waves | 23:24 | |
| rpifan | i mean i get why people are vaccine hesitant but how can you think the pandemic is fake | 23:24 |
| pwr22 | Yes, apparently so 😂 | 23:24 |
| nixonix | how are your symptoms` | 23:24 |
| LjL | this is just a repeat troll | 23:24 |
| archpc | I’m feeling slightly better | 23:24 |
| LjL | archpc, fingers crossed | 23:25 |
| pwr22 | 🤯🚀🎉🎊🎈 | 23:25 |
| twomoon | maybe he means the reaction to the pandemic is overblown. but he uses the word fake instead | 23:25 |
| archpc | SpO2 was 85 at noon | 23:25 |
| lastshell | he is just a troll | 23:25 |
| lastshell | archpc thats better than was yesterday ? | 23:26 |
| nixonix | you should have the best protection. but still low Spo2, should get to meet doctor at least | 23:26 |
| pwr22 | rpifan: How do people think the world is flat or that magnets are some sort of magical conspiracy? Somehow it happens | 23:26 |
| archpc | It was 83 | 23:26 |
| LjL | if that's the best protection... | 23:26 |
| rpifan | magnets are magic?? what ive not heard that | 23:26 |
| LjL | to be fair 85 vs 83 is very much within the tolerance of most oximeters | 23:26 |
| LjL | they also think that the vaccine *makes you* magnetic | 23:26 |
| archpc | I check it 2 times on each finger | 23:26 |
| archpc | LjL, because they don’t shower ;) | 23:27 |
| pwr22 | Oh yeah I forgot about that one | 23:27 |
| lastshell | and how you feeling archpc ? | 23:27 |
| archpc | they just get all sticky | 23:27 |
| LjL | sticky != magnetic :P | 23:27 |
| archpc | Horrid, but better | 23:27 |
| archpc | still can’t really walk or get up without my heart rate going up a whole o | 23:27 |
| archpc | lot | 23:28 |
| pwr22 | https://youtu.be/8bhYMnHb5JY | 23:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Air Canada requiring all employees, new hires to be vaccinated against COVID-19 → https://is.gd/wy90dS | 23:28 |
| lastshell | damn I was exercising yesterday with a slam ball less than 5 minutes and I was not able to pump my hart up | 23:28 |
| lastshell | I been doing alot of exercsice recentily | 23:28 |
| lastshell | I can not imagine just walking and got high | 23:29 |
| lastshell | must be hard | 23:29 |
| archpc | Like, I go on runs, hike, climb mountains, the highest I’ve seen it go then is like, 150, it was 140-ish from walking, if it stays like this Im going to go insane | 23:30 |
| lastshell | yeah thats super odd | 23:30 |
| lastshell | how many days you been infected or with symtoms ? | 23:31 |
| archpc | I’ve been positive since the 20th | 23:31 |
| rpifan | oh thats nothing | 23:31 |
| rpifan | it takes weeks to recover | 23:31 |
| lastshell | damn | 23:31 |
| rpifan | its not just the flu or a cold | 23:32 |
| rpifan | took me about 3 weeks until i could bike to my drs office like i often do | 23:32 |
| lastshell | damn | 23:32 |
| LjL | archpc, don't force yourself to do things though, okay to test, but probably best to keep the heartrate as low as manageable | 23:32 |
| rpifan | yea i agree | 23:33 |
| archpc | I know, it was just to get an heart reading, Im keeping movement to a minimum | 23:33 |
| pwr22 | Just kept having rest and fluids | 23:36 |
| pwr22 | Get a lot of sleep if you can | 23:36 |
| pwr22 | *keep | 23:36 |
| de-facto | low pulse to avoid myocarditis (inflammation of heart muscle) but also a bit of slow moderate movement to avoid thrombosis of course also by never dehydrate and possibly even take things that are known to thin the blood | 23:38 |
| de-facto | since thrombosis and micro coagulation is a known issue with covid | 23:39 |
| nixonix | they recommend those support socks, whatever they are called. and moving legs often | 23:39 |
| nixonix | (i have my aspirin ready) | 23:40 |
| nixonix | (but not giving medical advice, other than go see a doctor) | 23:40 |
| rpifan | compression socks? | 23:41 |
| nixonix | yeah | 23:41 |
| archpc | So.. I shouldn’t smoke crack? I heard it covers my lungs walks in a protective layer of drugs | 23:42 |
| archpc | /joke | 23:42 |
| rpifan | lool | 23:42 |
| de-facto | same, i am not competent to give medical advice, i just bought some things like aspirin, nac, vitamin D3, vitamin C, ginkgo biobla, green and black tea, hesperidin, rutin, etc | 23:43 |
| nixonix | not cocoa, rutin, vitamin b complex, quercetin etc? nicotine perhaps, pack of cigs... | 23:43 |
| nixonix | (i have those all currently, exp cigs, just other forms of nic. short on b tho currently. erbs, not my thing) | 23:45 |
| nixonix | ah there was rutin in the list | 23:45 |
| de-facto | best is probably to eat good food, drink enough and do moderate movement without high pulse rate, get fresh air etc | 23:46 |
| ecks | the EU covid certificate is quite convenient | 23:47 |
| ecks | although the last place i was at checked vaccination status by asking "are you vaccinated" | 23:47 |
| nixonix | what are the standard covid treatments nowdays, there and in other western countries (exp hep)? antiplatelets? how about statins? | 23:48 |
| rpifan | i think i need to do something to get my postivie pcr test into the system | 23:48 |
| rpifan | but idk how ti works | 23:48 |
| de-facto | same, in university they asked me at mensa (the place for eating) "are you vaccinated" and i told them "yeah i am, but you know breakthrough cases have same viral shedding than non-vaccinated" and they said "hmm yeah" | 23:48 |
| de-facto | showed them the cert, they were like "ok" without even verifying, lol | 23:49 |
| rpifan | de-facto, cafeteria in american | 23:49 |
| rpifan | school cafeteria / work canteen possibly | 23:49 |
| rpifan | but mensa would not be understood | 23:49 |
| de-facto | its the German term for it | 23:49 |
| rpifan | yes i know but when i read it i first thought mensa? like the high IQ society, then i remembered your a German and i understood | 23:50 |
| ecks | checking covid certificate + ID at the door is really convenient, hoping that's the future instead of complete lockdowns | 23:51 |
| nixonix | i had a graph on standard treatments used in california hospitals, from around 8 months back, but i lost the link to it. percentages for different drugs used | 23:51 |
| rpifan | de-facto, how do you put a positive pcr test into the german covid app anyway | 23:52 |
| de-facto | RKI released an control app CoVPass Check, it shows name, date of birth and if cert is valid | 23:52 |
| de-facto | so with ID it can be just used for verification | 23:52 |
| rpifan | but i had my pcr test done in spain | 23:53 |
| rpifan | its a big mess | 23:53 |
| rpifan | i see that the apotheke says they can digitalize your vaccine records | 23:53 |
| rpifan | but of course im not vacinated | 23:53 |
| rpifan | its so random | 23:53 |
| de-facto | rpifan, the tests i have done directly let me scan QR code and if they would be positive the app would allow me to publish that (via anonymous opt in) | 23:53 |
| rpifan | hm | 23:53 |
| de-facto | why are you not vaccinated? | 23:54 |
| de-facto | you are in a risk group | 23:54 |
| rpifan | well they are rolling out a new scheme for a street fair in berlin where you can enter from eingang A if you have the paper digitalized | 23:54 |
| rpifan | but enter only from eingang B if you have the printed paper | 23:54 |
| rpifan | id ask the apotheker but they are always so mean and rare | 23:54 |
| rpifan | im scared to ask any german for anything honestly | 23:54 |
| de-facto | its your decision but i think you would profit from vaccine protection with your condition | 23:57 |
| de-facto | we are going to get a very big Delta wave in Germany | 23:58 |
| de-facto | they just canceled all containment by removing incidence thresholds | 23:58 |
| nixonix | why is germanys stringency index dropped so much, when you have vaccine passport system? | 23:59 |
| de-facto | so they can avoid lockdown prior to upcoming elections, regardless of how many get infected | 23:59 |
| de-facto | because they are utterly stupid, dont get me started on them | 23:59 |
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