| nixonix | stringency indexes, owid: https://is.gd/6cbM38 | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| nixonix | but what specific actions there caused the drop? | 00:01 |
| rpifan | well i want the novavax | 00:01 |
| de-facto | my guess would be 1) they want to motivate vaccinations 2) they dont want restrictions prior to elections | 00:02 |
| nixonix | you sure you want the adjuvant of novavax? | 00:02 |
| rpifan | i hope laschet loses | 00:02 |
| rpifan | oh god whats wrong with novavax now? | 00:02 |
| specing | de-facto: CDU badly wants to remain in power? | 00:02 |
| de-facto | its all GGG (tested or recovered or vaccinated) now, completely ignoring any vaccine breakthrough cases or reinfections | 00:02 |
| specing | I'll be happy to see CDU gone, I hope the greens can form government now | 00:03 |
| nixonix | adjuvants always have their risk. but i dont know how big problem they are for different conditions | 00:03 |
| rpifan | well they are removing the first G | 00:03 |
| rpifan | no more getested | 00:03 |
| de-facto | yeah its really getting a lot worse | 00:03 |
| rpifan | laschet will 100 percent win | 00:03 |
| rpifan | tho i would hope he wouldnt | 00:03 |
| de-facto | basically skipping containment, let people pay for tests | 00:03 |
| rpifan | he is a dumbass | 00:03 |
| specing | laschet is CDU? | 00:04 |
| rpifan | yea | 00:05 |
| nixonix | here hc officials are currently suggesting in media, that vaccinated shouldnt be quarantined when in high exposure situation. and also reduced tests, because the load for hc is currently too much, taking them away from other jobs (needs to be nurse here) | 00:05 |
| rpifan | which i confuse for CSD lol | 00:05 |
| rpifan | so i just call it die union | 00:05 |
| de-facto | lets not talk politics | 00:05 |
| rpifan | well im concerned laschet said no more lockdowns | 00:06 |
| rpifan | that is really concerning | 00:06 |
| de-facto | just covid containment, whoever is in charge got just one job: R<1 | 00:06 |
| rpifan | i just dont really trust 1G stuff, novavax is like 1.5G and in any everyone will eventually be forced to get vaccine one way or another | 00:07 |
| de-facto | did the vaccination rate fits again, they end up at 64.6% now | 00:07 |
| rpifan | to me it seems novavax is the most responsible option | 00:07 |
| de-facto | so 0.6% more than last time, but still not enough by far | 00:07 |
| nixonix | they currently have delays like week for contact tracers to have a contact to positive cases, and more for exposed, on high prevalence areas. costing too much, hard to get personnel. they just want to get easier now... hc officials | 00:08 |
| de-facto | we will get a lot of very severe cases in the winter, because people hesitate to get vaccinated | 00:08 |
| rpifan | well we need more vaccines | 00:08 |
| rpifan | thats one solution | 00:08 |
| rpifan | the more vaccine types that are available | 00:08 |
| rpifan | the harder it is to knock them down | 00:08 |
| de-facto | we need people to get the vaccine to reduce load on healthcare system | 00:08 |
| rpifan | people who havent been vacinated by now will not be suddenly motivated to take the currently available vaccines | 00:09 |
| p0indexter | ny take away so far is the net benefit to being vaccinated is hypothetical at best. | 00:09 |
| rpifan | my mother and grandmother are 100 percent covid vaccine deniers | 00:09 |
| de-facto | those people expose themselves to very high risk of severe progressions as Delta is going to become more and more aggressive | 00:10 |
| p0indexter | comming from the vaccinated | 00:10 |
| nixonix | they just vaccinated 12-15 yo in helsinki schools ready. only 75% took it (no idea if some of the rest had already, but they started just a few years earlier than in schools). and it will prob be less on many other regions | 00:10 |
| rpifan | well either way their issue is with the vaccine itself | 00:10 |
| rpifan | you need other kinds of vaccine to start to force them | 00:10 |
| de-facto | what issue? | 00:10 |
| nixonix | antivaxers kids, large share of immigrants prob, other novaxers like silver water drinkers kids etc | 00:11 |
| p0indexter | i still will take the chance and take the vaccine i mearly point out this is a learning curve for experts and there but for the grace of they go i | 00:11 |
| de-facto | no forcing, that would be wrong, but people need to understand that they can profit a lot from lowering their risk for severe progressions significantly | 00:11 |
| nixonix | lets see how long it takes to start younger kids, when pfizer will have those final results in late september i think, and the approval delay then | 00:11 |
| de-facto | hence any vaccine before infection is good, I would take any of those available in Germany without any hesitation | 00:12 |
| rpifan | nah | 00:12 |
| rpifan | im waiting | 00:12 |
| rpifan | novavax | 00:12 |
| rpifan | or bust | 00:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Getting data out of @Pfizer on the booster shot effect is not helping matters.The 1st time they presented data was in their earnings report, 23 people, yet unpublished (below)Today, 306 people: antibodies "jumped more than 3 times higher than the level after the second dose" → https://is.gd/PwkYkN | 00:12 |
| nixonix | it will take at least 6 months for novavax to be available, but probably longer. may be way longer, with their production problems | 00:13 |
| p0indexter | i recognize we cant avoid risk at this point...this is a pandemic...i pray for the experts | 00:13 |
| p0indexter | but they are not perfect nor our leader they had zero practice | 00:14 |
| de-facto | those that refuse vaccination and let the others pay for their hospitalization are not really acting responsibly, neither for themselves nor for the majority, same goes for traveling | 00:14 |
| rpifan | i saw it was supposedly rolling out in the uk | 00:14 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-expects-key-data-novavax-vaccine-around-october-source-2021-08-20/ | 00:14 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.reuters.com: EU expects key data on Novavax vaccine around October - source | Reuters | 00:14 |
| nixonix | not happening soon. approval in eu possibly, but the production | 00:15 |
| rpifan | well ive got 6 months with the current covid antibodies | 00:15 |
| rpifan | i hope before my antibodies run out | 00:16 |
| rpifan | any new non mrna vaccine wil lbe available | 00:16 |
| nixonix | sanofi's adjuvanted vax may be available before it | 00:16 |
| de-facto | you just dont know the level of protection from recovery since it varies a LOT | 00:16 |
| rpifan | that is true | 00:17 |
| rpifan | i wish we could got a test of the antibodies | 00:17 |
| rpifan | like an hiv viral load test | 00:17 |
| nixonix | it has especially strong adjuvant, GSK's squalene AS03 | 00:17 |
| rpifan | nixonix, what vaccine is that | 00:17 |
| nixonix | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanofi%E2%80%93GSK_COVID-19_vaccine | 00:17 |
| rpifan | hm | 00:18 |
| de-facto | honestly, i would prefer that vaccine that was given to the biggest number of people, just because it means also the rarest side effects are known, also for the longest times | 00:18 |
| rpifan | what about a live virus vaccine | 00:18 |
| rpifan | thats a fair point de-facto | 00:19 |
| nixonix | wont be approved in the west, live virus for sars2 | 00:19 |
| rpifan | why not | 00:19 |
| nixonix | they are risky. i doubt eben inactivated whole virus vac will be approved | 00:20 |
| rpifan | oh really | 00:20 |
| p0indexter | if the aouthorities really wanted to know who is infected they would order mass tests b4 ordering mass vaxxinations. why arent they persuing that stat? i cant believe its irrelevant | 00:20 |
| de-facto | mass testing would be a very good strategy, afaik in China whole cities get tested in one weekend | 00:22 |
| nixonix | A review of the medical literature revealed no major risk of transmission associated with any live attenuated vaccine. A theoretical risk continues to exist for the live attenuated intranasal influenza vaccine and the smallpox vaccine | 00:22 |
| p0indexter | *vaccinations | 00:22 |
| archpc | Because ordering mass vaccinations in the USA would trigger the “personal freedom” idiots | 00:22 |
| twomoon | we need some people unvaccinated just in case something weird happens long term (1 in a trillion possibility) | 00:23 |
| de-facto | i am against forcing vaccinations, i am for convincing people with the honesty | 00:23 |
| twomoon | but those people also really need to try hard to quarantine like my aunt who literally only goes outside to the mailbox at night | 00:23 |
| twomoon | i agree with de-facto | 00:23 |
| rpifan | hmm | 00:23 |
| nixonix | maybe in practice risks arent much higher than with inactivated. but whole N protein has its risks, since its close to N from sars1, where they found ADE and what not (in animals though, which appears to happen way more often than in humans) | 00:23 |
| twomoon | forcing people who are not accustomed to being forced to do stuff is not gonna end well | 00:23 |
| archpc | Yeah, look at Australia | 00:24 |
| twomoon | ADE happens more often in animals? | 00:24 |
| p0indexter | the water is behind us...been there for couple of years imho...95+ % would test positive to antibody test. | 00:24 |
| dTal | ...than plants? I imagine so | 00:24 |
| nixonix | but there are risks for antiautobody reactions, ike apparently N and strong adjuvant caused narcolepsy with pandemrix | 00:24 |
| twomoon | what is pandemrix? | 00:25 |
| dTal | a gaul by the sounds of it | 00:25 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1430271785363066882 | 00:25 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): "It is almost trivial to show "ADE" in the lab, using cell culture, and animal models show it far more frequently than do humans. But the clinical phenomenon, [...] | 00:25 |
| twomoon | oh pandemrix is a flu vaccine | 00:25 |
| de-facto | p0indexter, it would be interesting to monitor for some fast decaying property that indicates infection e.g. IgM or IgA titers in a randomly choosen representative sample of population, just to estimate infection fatality rates in real time | 00:26 |
| de-facto | we need to monitor that to correlate antigenic drift of the mutants | 00:26 |
| p0indexter | de-facto: we need a metric to sink our teeth into | 00:27 |
| de-facto | something like anti-SARS-CoV-2-N-protein IgA/IgM ELISA or such | 00:27 |
| nixonix | you mean to get the idea of severity of new variants that appear? | 00:28 |
| p0indexter | the work to get those reliable metrics isnt being done...policy makers want wiggle room and ppl afraid to stick thier neck out | 00:29 |
| nixonix | they cant even agree if delta is more severe than previous variants | 00:29 |
| de-facto | yeah just to have a proper background incidence as denominator for things like hospitalization rates and IFR | 00:29 |
| nixonix | maybe they nowdays have good ab assays, that dont produce loads of false positives. another thing is, if they are used (like in uk, those 90% ab prevalences, several weeks ago already) | 00:30 |
| nixonix | although its way less a problem when prevalence is high | 00:31 |
| de-facto | no i mean fast decaying metric to get the most recent incidence rate, not the one accumulated over half a year or such | 00:31 |
| de-facto | something that stays positive only a month or such | 00:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: The politicization of vaccination is a/the major factor responsible for where we are now in the US pandemicNew results of @YouGov @TheEconomist poll, h/t @gelliottmorris → https://is.gd/bcmXXn | 00:34 |
| lastshell | I don't recall where I read | 00:44 |
| nixonix | Additionally, as this is an observational real-world study, where PCR screening was not performed by protocol, we might be underestimating asymptomatic infections, as these individuals often do not get tested | 00:44 |
| lastshell | about virus mutations spread more faster but are less deadly | 00:44 |
| nixonix | that one which found natural infection protection hugely stronger than mrna vax | 00:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: COVID costs billions, so Delta to charge unvaxxed airline workers $200/month → https://is.gd/2Ymr9h | 00:45 |
| nixonix | so its basically tainted, and we dont know how bad | 00:45 |
| p0indexter | another take away for me is the realization that covid can inflict severe disease in healthy young ppl and not in others and there is no real inhearant resisance. the severity almost seems random but might just be my perception | 00:46 |
| p0indexter | no reliable metric ? | 00:47 |
| nixonix | yeah, there are no ways to predict the outcome, other than by existing comorbidities, bmi/fat percentage etc | 00:48 |
| nixonix | age naturally | 00:48 |
| p0indexter | maybe we are targeting the wrong infectious agent, correlated to covid but causing desease | 00:50 |
| nixonix | there are some things though, genes like foxp4, autoantibodies for interferons. but you dont usually know if you have those risk factors or not | 00:50 |
| nixonix | they have tried to find different risk factors during the whole epidemic, like if you remember that study finding 3 immunotypes, some of those associated with higher risk than others. not sure if the discovery was real or not | 00:53 |
| nixonix | but mostly other than mentioned, its impossibly to know how bad it will be | 00:53 |
| p0indexter | *disease sometimes i cant decide if i should ignore a typo or draw more attention to it by correcting it | 00:53 |
| nixonix | and more interesting problems, like whats the percentage that gets chromosome, brain damage etc, for vaccinated too. almost everybody with symptoms or just small share | 00:54 |
| nixonix | .title https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6508/eabc8511 | 00:55 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From science.sciencemag.org: Deep immune profiling of COVID-19 patients reveals distinct immunotypes with therapeutic implications | Science | 00:55 |
| nixonix | it was jsut a preprint when i linked it here the last time. published in science since then, so maybe theres something | 00:56 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01827-w | 00:57 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nature.com: The quest to find genes that drive severe COVID | 00:57 |
| p0indexter | lol...im so glad someone is looking into it ! | 00:57 |
| nixonix | .title https://immunology.sciencemag.org/content/6/62/eabl4340 | 00:58 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From immunology.sciencemag.org: Autoantibodies neutralizing type I IFNs are present in ~4% of uninfected individuals over 70 years old and account for ~20% of COVID-19 deaths | Science Immunology | 00:58 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-96233-7 | 00:58 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: Homology between SARS CoV-2 and human proteins | Scientific Reports | 00:58 |
| de-facto | nixonix, ^^ what do you think about that one? | 00:58 |
| nixonix | new to me | 00:58 |
| nixonix | is this some superantigen thing? | 00:59 |
| p0indexter | btw the conv in this channel is very informative. keeping every thing sane eveyone is thinking carefully about this situation | 01:00 |
| nixonix | not much about N. maybe its covered already with sars1 studies | 01:00 |
| nixonix | Some of the SARS CoV-2 proteins can be implicated in mimicry that can delay the response of innate immunity to the invasion of virus particles into a macroorganism, and in provoking an autoimmune process that directs a part of the immune response to the proteins of a macroorganism (after the destruction of virus particles) | 01:02 |
| nixonix | yeah, thats already shown or suggested in that study i wrote or linked about here some day | 01:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +4966 cases (now 1.5 million), +114 deaths (now 25627), +33640 tests (now 8.8 million) since a day ago | 01:06 |
| de-facto | yeah exactly, so i wonder how that relates to brain fog | 01:08 |
| de-facto | long covid etc | 01:09 |
| nixonix | there are other innate immune modulators than those that paper mentions, at least orf6, but apparently it doesnt mimic human proteins then | 01:13 |
| nixonix | so maybe its not relevant if theres mimicry or not, if there is some mechanism anyway | 01:14 |
| nixonix | except for stuff like autoantibody reactions. too bad it doesnt have much about N | 01:15 |
| nixonix | but shows that S only vaccines are safer | 01:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Taiwan reports first death following rollout of local vaccine jab → https://is.gd/1TmcpW | 01:19 |
| LjL | Taiwan's vaccine is protein subunit | 01:25 |
| LjL | should be interesting to see how it works out, since they also used other vaccines and can do comparisons | 01:26 |
| LjL | (which will be inevitably made difficult by different rollout periods etc, but still) | 01:26 |
| nixonix | people die all the time when they have got vaccine. eg in finland with 5.5M population (a minute, i have to use a cheat from a finnish tweet), if everyone got saline water "vaccine", during the next 4 months: | 01:37 |
| nixonix | 16438 would get pneumonia, 17736 would die, 25 GBS, 53 <15 yo would get cancer diagnosis, 16 narcolepsies | 01:38 |
| LjL | i wasn't talking about the death, i find it currently inconsequential | 01:40 |
| LjL | and don't worry, the first comment on reddit also points out it's inconsequential | 01:41 |
| nixonix | its another mclellan vaccine. what was the name of the other one? | 01:44 |
| nixonix | no, i only refered to that "first death" news | 01:45 |
| nixonix | antivaxers argued with me recently about 103 something deaths in finland after vaccinations. it should be longer list, but i guess it was those that they looked at a bit more closely | 01:46 |
| LjL | mclellan? | 01:47 |
| nixonix | we just discussed about it. with its stupid list of names, i renamed it mclellan vax. found: | 01:49 |
| nixonix | .title https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NDV-HXP-S | 01:49 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From en.wikipedia.org: NDV-HXP-S - Wikipedia | 01:49 |
| nixonix | its a NVD vector vax, interesting because it uses hexapro | 01:49 |
| nixonix | NDV-HXP-S (known as ButanVac[2][3] or ADAPTCOV[4] in Brazil, COVIVAC[5] in Vietnam, HXP-GPOVac[6] in Thailand, Patria[7] in Mexico) is a COVID-19 vaccine candidate developed by a team led by Jason McLellan | 01:50 |
| nixonix | and hexapro is super interesting. i wrote about it 2020 already | 01:50 |
| LjL | so do you mean the Taiwanese vaccine is basically just NDV-HXP-S just with a different name, or is it similar but different? | 01:51 |
| LjL | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_McLellan says the basic spike sequence he created was even taken as the basis for Moderna | 01:51 |
| LjL | so you could probably call a lot of things "McLellan vaccines" i guess :P | 01:51 |
| LjL | is this about the substitutions that made the spike more stable? | 01:52 |
| nixonix | mclellan 2 doesnt use hexapro, just standard proline substitutions. aduvants unmethylated CpG TLR-9 stimulator and alum. we discussed on this here too, a few weeks ago | 01:53 |
| LjL | okay i'll shut up | 01:54 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00269-8/fulltext | 01:54 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.thelancet.com: Safety and immunogenicity of a Recombinant Stabilized Prefusion SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Vaccine (MVCCOV1901) Adjuvanted with CpG 1018 and Aluminum Hydroxide in healthy adults: A Phase 1, dose- [...] | 01:54 |
| nixonix | no its another vax | 01:54 |
| nixonix | yeah, he seems to be the man | 01:54 |
| LjL | MVCCOV1901 is the Taiwanese one | 01:54 |
| nixonix | yup, the link above | 01:55 |
| LjL | so uhm they're using it on regular people in Taiwan with only a phase 1 paper out? | 01:56 |
| LjL | %papers MVC-COV1901 | 01:56 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, 10 results out of 17: Safety and immunogenicity of a Recombinant Stabilized Prefusion SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Vaccine (MVC-COV1901) Adjuvanted with CpG 1018 and Aluminum Hydroxide in healthy adults: A Phase 1, dose-escalation study by Szu-Min Hsieh et al, dated 2021-07-06 → https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.100989 [... want %more?] | 01:56 |
| LjL | %more | 01:56 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, [...] Safety and Immunogenicity of CpG 1018 and Aluminium Hydroxide-Adjuvanted SARS-CoV-2 S-2P Protein Vaccine MVC-COV1901: A Large-Scale Double-Blinded, Randomised, Placebo-Controlled Phase 2 Trial by Szu-Min Hsieh et al, dated 2021-08-08 → https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.08.05.21261532 [...] → https://paste.ee/p/KFiYd | 01:56 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, [...] conversations with patients who are reluctant to get the vaccine. → https://paste.ee/p/SXNl5 | 01:56 |
| LjL | phase 2, i guess | 01:56 |
| nixonix | hexapro, i wrote about it a few days ago. im too tired to write it again (and would need checking the study again), but th elink | 01:56 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.11.451855v1.full | 01:56 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.biorxiv.org: The SARS-CoV-2 spike reversibly samples an open-trimer conformation exposing novel epitopes | bioRxiv | 01:56 |
| LjL | "The most common solicited adverse events across all study participants were pain at the injection site (64%), and malaise/fatigue (35%). Fever was rarely reported (<1%)." bit low side effect profile, good if it works anyway | 01:57 |
| LjL | but the phase 2 only looks at the immunogenicity and not actual protection | 01:58 |
| LjL | i hope there is some "hidden" phase 3 info they used before approving hi... | 01:58 |
| nixonix | it is based on 6 proline substitutions instead of 6, thats the name hexapro. and the "state b" they found, that they would cause and it would be more stabile, apparenty for better immunogenicity | 01:59 |
| nixonix | and why all the stabilization of S2? apparently its furin and/or tmprss2 that causes it to collapse, like in real virus, but i havent checked if it is | 02:00 |
| nixonix | and when we have now this delta and apparently would like to get an updated vaccine using its s protein, how about the cleaving when it has RRRAR motif instead of PRRAR? did that affect the decision to just keep offering the same ol vax? | 02:01 |
| nixonix | so the old two proline stabilization wouldnt be good with it? | 02:02 |
| LjL | i suspect the decision to keep offering the same old vax is mainly due to slowness of starting trials, and the fact they probably have a large production of the current vaccine ready to be shipped | 02:03 |
| nixonix | theres another theory, along with possible OAS and mixed versions on market problem | 02:03 |
| LjL | but sure if a Delta-specific vaccine had to be less stable, that wouldn't be great | 02:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Sri Lanka: +8967 cases (now 407768), +198 deaths (now 7948) since a day ago | 02:08 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Safety and Immunogenicity of CpG 1018 and Aluminium Hydroxide-Adjuvanted SARS-CoV-2 S-2P Protein Vaccine MVC-COV1901: A Large-Scale Double-Blind, Randomised, Placebo-Controlled Phase 2 Trial ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/3W6K9ETH ) | 02:08 | |
| nixonix | i have to read a good description on mrna vaccines some day, like if the synthesis goes through ERGIC like in infection, so if that furin cleavage happens similarly (unless its prevented with those proline substitutions) | 02:11 |
| LjL | i'd figure virus vector vaccines would work better as they would mimic the way the real pathogen works better, but... that doesn't seem to be the way it is, also since in that phase Sinopharm would mimic it even better, and yet it's not that good | 02:13 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-021-00369-6 | 02:14 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nature.com: Distinguishing features of current COVID-19 vaccines: knowns and unknowns of antigen presentation and modes of action | npj Vaccines | 02:14 |
| nixonix | wasnt found in that, but it looked very good article | 02:14 |
| LjL | i should have a sanity check of my RSS sources, i'm realizing for instance that Derek Lowe hasn't been posted in forever. and yet he just recently talked about *another* (not the one we saw today) ADE-suggesting paper for instance https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/08/16/a-new-antibody-dependent-enhancement-hypothesis | 02:16 |
| LjL | but there is also https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/08/17/blog-switchover-in-progress so i guess i need to change the RSS feeds anyway | 02:16 |
| nixonix | viral vectors are mrna vaccines too, but since the vector is dna, it lasts longer in cells (and mrna production is then longer). is it good or bad, who knows. if the protection lasts longer, then they could be better. but theres that booster problem (and possible side effects from the vector) | 02:17 |
| LjL | hmm nevermind, he's been posted. i just missed his posts. | 02:17 |
| LjL | nixonix, well they may last longer, we will see that, but as for initial protection, i'd say the mRNA vaccines seemed to work better | 02:18 |
| nixonix | that ade article had good discussion following it | 02:18 |
| nixonix | btw, no signs of repeated mrna tolerance problems apparently, when they have been jabbing those 3rd doses already | 02:19 |
| nixonix | at least when pseudouridine is used | 02:19 |
| * archpc scrolls up | 02:19 | |
| nixonix | az should fix that thrombie shit and join with jnj, so they could use two different vectors | 02:21 |
| nixonix | nobody wants their vax now in the west, when safer alternatives are available | 02:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: NHS stops some blood tests due to vial shortages: Doctors across the country are being asked to delay tests due to a nationwide shortage of blood test tubes. → https://is.gd/Rm4uBS | 02:25 |
| LjL | nixonix, yeah that's an encouraging thing that third shots seem to be having the same side-effect profile as second ones | 02:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +2847 cases (now 1.5 million), +26 deaths (now 26875) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +2158 cases (now 1.9 million), +9 deaths (now 18136) since 21 hours ago — France: +31024 cases (now 6.7 million), +105 deaths (now 113900) since 21 hours ago — Bahrain: +130 cases (now 271933), +1 deaths (now 1388) since a day ago | 02:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Misinformation is bad. Good information is good.: There's a lot of misinformation floating around, and it can be hard to know whether you're reading reasonable commentary, sensationalized content, or flat out misinformation. Here are some good sources of information about COVID-19 that are written to be accessible to the general public. → https://is.gd/1Fc9dT | 02:35 |
| LjL | okay so today i learned Marseille is a bad city for science | 02:39 |
| nixonix | i probably read the same tweet couple of days ago | 02:40 |
| nixonix | or was it in reddit. prob a tweet, i dont read reddit often. somebody said, that its around that hcq dude that has lots of power there | 02:43 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1430661829517135879 | 02:46 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): "Oh Jeez. My first thought is that Pfizer must already know of such a magical strain, but then I remembered that they're just in it for the cash. [...] | 02:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Trial suggests malaria sickness could be cut by 70%: Seasonal vaccines and drugs could save millions of young lives in Africa, researchers say. → https://is.gd/75keQt | 02:46 |
| LjL | nixonix, unfortunately what i fear is that they're in for the cash as long as they can make sure their next vaccine is protective but *not protective enough for the next strain* | 02:54 |
| LjL | because that will mean more cash | 02:54 |
| LjL | my only hope is that this vaccine stuff is too trial-and-error to plan something like that | 02:54 |
| LjL | (and make it succeed) | 02:54 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Distinguishing features of current COVID-19 vaccines: knowns and unknowns of antigen presentation and modes of action ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/SPJUGPG4 ) | 03:13 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: The SARS-CoV-2 spike reversibly samples an open-trimer conformation exposing novel epitopes ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/NM7S4WA2 ) | 03:18 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: MVC COVID-19 Vaccine Obtains Taiwan EUA Approval ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/5I2HG6AS ) | 03:29 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Medigen Vaccine Biologics Announces Launch of Its COVID-19 Vaccine MVC-COV1901 Adjuvanted with Dynavax’s CpG 1018 Adjuvant ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/69GS35IX ) | 03:29 | |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Moderna withholds 1.63 million Covid-19 vaccine doses in Japan due to contamination → https://is.gd/xzA27e | 03:50 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: How Well Does the J&J Vaccine Work Against the Delta Variant? | In the Pipeline ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/Q8AI7H9M ) | 03:53 | |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/VbHddOX https://i.imgur.com/TdzsAVv.jpeg https://impfdashboard.de/static/data/germany_vaccinations_timeseries_v2.tsv meaning asymptotic vaccination of v=64.72% | 03:55 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany vaccination rates - Album on Imgur | 03:55 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Guadeloupe: +5259 cases (now 45277), +12 deaths (now 439), +34448 tests (now 369615) since 20 hours ago — Ethiopia: +2095 cases (now 300092), +13 deaths (now 4593) since a day ago — Egypt: +203 cases (now 286938), +8 deaths (now 16691) since 23 hours ago — Niger: +14 cases (now 5792) since a day ago | 04:00 |
| LjL | de-facto, what is green and orange? | 04:04 |
| de-facto | orange is the vaccination rate in percent (time derivative of vaccinated) and green is the residual, the difference of data from the fit 100-fold magnified to make it visible | 04:20 |
| gry | https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/vaccinated-healthcare-workers-threat-unvaccinated-patients-co-workers/ "A preprint paper by the prestigious Oxford University Clinical Research Group, published Aug. 10 in The Lancet, found vaccinated individuals carry 251 times the load of COVID-19 viruses in their nostrils compared to the unvaccinated." - Interesting? Is this valid? | 04:21 |
| de-facto | fortunately the asymptotic saturation goes up, it was 64% before now its 64.7% so thats nice, but still too few and too slow | 04:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: In the land of a surfeit of free vaccines, this is the dark day when we crossed the line of over 100,000 hospitalizations, more than 25,000 patients in the ICU (highest for the pandemic), over 1300 deaths, and over 186,000 new cases. → https://is.gd/zWBdvR | 04:23 |
| de-facto | hmm gry but they compare old strains to delta right? | 04:25 |
| de-facto | afaik in china they found 1000-fold | 04:25 |
| de-facto | so idk if it has anything to do with vaccinations, rather with variants? | 04:25 |
| gry | probably | 04:26 |
| de-facto | "Viral loads of breakthrough Delta variant infection cases were 251 times higher than those of cases infected with old strains detected between March-April 2020" | 04:26 |
| de-facto | from | 04:26 |
| de-facto | .title https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3897733 | 04:26 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From papers.ssrn.com: Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Among Vaccinated Healthcare Workers, Vietnam by Nguyen Van Vinh Chau, Nghiem My Ngoc, Lam Anh Nguyet, Vo Minh Quang, Nguyen Thi Han Ny, Dao Bach Khoa, Nguyen [...] | 04:26 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.07.21260122v2 | 04:27 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Viral infection and transmission in a large, well-traced outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant | medRxiv | 04:27 |
| de-facto | "Daily sequential PCR testing of the quarantined subjects indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, when they first become PCR+, were on average ∼1000 times greater compared to A/B lineage infections during initial epidemic wave in China in early 2020, suggesting potentially faster viral replication and greater infectiousness of Delta during early infection." | 04:28 |
| de-facto | so without having read that paper, i would suspect its the effect from Delta, has nothing to do with vaccinations | 04:29 |
| de-facto | hence we need to stop this damn thing with NPIs | 04:29 |
| de-facto | otherwise we going to have a very bad winter time in Europe | 04:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Suriname: +222 cases (now 27998), +1 deaths (now 705) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +26687 cases (now 6.6 million), +112 deaths (now 132126) since 21 hours ago — France: +24258 cases (now 6.7 million), +112 deaths (now 113923) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +2194 cases (now 1.9 million), +7 deaths (now 18138) since 21 hours ago | 05:02 |
| lastshell | probably was already pasted here I saw J&J also will need a booster shot | 05:04 |
| lastshell | I assume other vaccines will fall in the same | 05:04 |
| lastshell | afik pfizer and jnj are the current ones that already confirm will require booster ? | 05:05 |
| twomoon | damn nixonix i didn't know narcolepsy afflicts 1 in 3000 people | 05:20 |
| twomoon | that seems quite a high prevalence | 05:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Panama: +864 cases (now 454330), +5 deaths (now 7023) since a day ago — Eq. Guinea: +77 cases (now 9173) since a day ago — Antigua and Barb.: +58 cases (now 1598) since 2 days ago | 05:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: South Dakota Covid cases quintuple after Sturgis motorcycle rally → https://is.gd/h4MHD9 | 05:49 |
| lastshell | https://www.newsweek.com/israel-covid-case-breakthrough-data-shows-vaccines-not-pandemic-silver-bullet-1622465?amp=1 | 05:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): An "approved" vaccine might not be available yet.: Reading the approval notice issued by the F.D.A., there is present a clause that appears to exempt the existing stock of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines from being approved. → https://is.gd/11YUba | 06:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +14379 cases (now 3.9 million) since 23 hours ago — Grenada: +36 cases (now 266) since a day ago — Fr. Polynesia: +25 deaths (now 353) since a day ago | 06:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: How to manage a Delta wave?Iceland. 78% total population fully vaccinated.A+ → https://is.gd/QRoJQF | 06:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Biden falls short on pledge for US to be the world’s vaccine ‘Arsenal,’ Experts Say → https://is.gd/7tXRya | 07:04 |
| gry | https://medium.com/@matt_11659/australian-public-fed-nonsense-as-country-heads-to-irreversible-decision-99350b80125c hmm | 07:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Papua New Guinea bans flights from India after accusing it of Covid test ‘deception’ → https://is.gd/6GTTAa | 07:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iowa, United States: +7112 cases (now 400082), +42 deaths (now 6268) since 6 days ago — Michigan, United States: +5195 cases (now 1.1 million), +41 deaths (now 21446) since a day ago — Scotland, United Kingdom: +5010 cases (now 395918), +5 deaths (now 8085) since a day ago — North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany: +4611 cases (now 874967), +7 deaths (now 17390) since a day ago | 07:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australian daily Covid-19 virus cases soar over 1,000 for first time → https://is.gd/y2iAwL | 08:08 |
| archpc | gry, lol | 08:08 |
| gry | archpc: which part? | 08:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Chinese citizen who documented Wuhan outbreak falls ill in prison hunger strike → https://is.gd/MCl7ct | 08:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mongolia: +2467 cases (now 201746), +6 deaths (now 919) since 22 hours ago — India: +46164 cases (now 32.6 million), +831 deaths (now 436173) since 15 hours ago | 08:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | August 26, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/EcsjcD | 09:03 |
| twomoon | "Here, we found that the Delta variant completely escaped from anti-N-terminal domain (NTD) neutralizing antibodies, while increasing responsiveness to anti-NTD infectivity-enhancing antibodies. " | 09:20 |
| twomoon | can't someone explain this to me? | 09:20 |
| twomoon | "while increasing responsiveness to anti-NTD infectivity-enhancing antibodies." | 09:20 |
| twomoon | does anyone get this part? | 09:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +68 cases (now 3109) since 20 hours ago | 09:35 |
| undefined_bob | twomoon: maybe this can help but its a kinda technical/advanced topic: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0092867421006620 | 09:54 |
| undefined_bob | and https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34384810/ | 09:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: Orphan: Orphan designation: Chimeric anti-interleukin-6 monoclonal antibody (siltuximab), Treatment of Castleman's disease, 30/11/2007, Positive → https://is.gd/RMa11m | 09:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japan has suspended the use of about 1.63 million doses of the Moderna vaccine due to contamination. → https://is.gd/u5mJ59 | 10:19 |
| gry | https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2021/08/26/pandemic-peak-in-sight---but-we-must-brace-for-an-infection-surg.html | 10:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kerala, India: +31445 cases (now 3.9 million), +215 deaths (now 19972) since a day ago — Armenia: +683 cases (now 239739), +7 deaths (now 4785), +6918 tests (now 1.5 million) since a day ago — Anguilla: +20 cases (now 194) since 18 hours ago — Ladakh, India: +15 cases (now 20515) since a day ago | 10:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: Expanding the domestic public health supply chain is a matter of national security: Disruptions in the supply chain for health care supplies and pharmaceutical ingredients during the Covid-19 pandemic put Americans' lives — and livelihoods — at risk. We can't let that happen… → https://is.gd/O2YL7H | 10:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Which children are being vaccinated and why?: Millions of children, including 16 and 17 year olds, are now being offered a Covid vaccine in the UK. → https://is.gd/iJlbhj | 10:53 |
| twomoon | thanks undefined_bob | 10:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Estonia: +404 cases (now 140341), +4960 tests (now 1.7 million) since 23 hours ago — Slovenia: +1 cases (now 264650), +2932 tests (now 1.4 million) since 22 hours ago | 11:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: How We Report on Pain, Death and Trauma Without Losing Our Humanity: by Karim Doumar ] This column was originally published in Not Shutting Up, a newsletter about the issues facing journalism and democracy. Sign up for it here . I’m Karim, an audience editor here at ProPublica. That means I spend many of my working hours reading [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/JKuHTr | 11:26 |
| pwr22 | Oh wow, we've started vaccinating younger teenagers here in the UK | 11:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Russia: +19630 cases (now 6.8 million), +820 deaths (now 179243), +225834 vaccines (now 42.8 million), +541296 tests (now 176.7 million) since a day ago — Slovakia: +161 cases (now 394446), +96 vaccines (now 2.4 million), +5931 tests (now 3.3 million) since a day ago [... want %more?] | 11:40 |
| undefined_bob | pwr22: thats good | 11:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: Human medicine assessment reports: (news): Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Veklury, remdesivir, Coronavirus Infections, Date of authorisation: 03/07/2020, Revision: 6, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/wZa4ty | 11:50 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25479-6 | 12:24 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 variants by convalescent and BNT162b2 vaccinated serum | Nature Communications | 12:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Tunisia: +3552 cases (now 651035), +72 deaths (now 22932), +14970 tests (now 2.5 million) since 22 hours ago — Somaliland: +154 cases (now 4762), +13 deaths (now 324) since 12 days ago | 12:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Health: Unraveling the Mystery of Why Children Are Better Protected from COVID Than Adults → https://is.gd/tIGrDy | 12:47 |
| lastshell | ohttps://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/08/26/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html | 12:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from BioNTech: Pfizer and BioNTech Announce Collaboration with Brazil’s Eurofarma to Manufacture COVID-19 Vaccine Doses for Latin America: NEW YORK, USA and MAINZ, GERMANY, August 26, 2021 — Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (Nasdaq: BNTX) today announced the signing of a letter of intent with Eurofarma Laboratórios SA, a Brazilian [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/fMDh91 | 12:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for UAE: +991 cases (now 713402), +3 deaths (now 2031), +306873 tests (now 73.2 million) since a day ago — Croatia: +638 cases (now 371623), +6 deaths (now 8316), +10428 tests (now 2.5 million) since 22 hours ago — Afghanistan: +13 cases (now 152835), +2 deaths (now 7095), +509 tests (now 750213) since 22 hours ago [... want %more?] | 13:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on testing for COVID-19 by week and country: The downloadable data file contains information about testing volume for COVID-19 by week and country. Each row contains the corresponding data for a country and a week. The file is updated weekly. You may use the data in line with ECDC’s copyright policy. → https://is.gd/1QzArh | 13:44 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Malaysia: +24599 cases (now 1.6 million), +393 deaths (now 15211) since a day ago — Palestine: +1788 cases (now 332609), +3 deaths (now 3657), +9341 tests (now 2.1 million) since a day ago — Romania: +953 cases (now 1.1 million), +18 deaths (now 34471), +35591 tests (now 11.3 million) since a day ago [... want %more?] | 14:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New governor of New York adds 12,000 deaths to publicized COVID tally → https://is.gd/54ZM2Y | 14:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +2052 cases (now 754915), +26 deaths (now 10638) since a day ago — Namibia: +192 cases (now 124275), +12 deaths (now 3361), +1820 tests (now 652869) since 17 hours ago — Iceland: +102 cases (now 10443), +1 deaths (now 31), +4084 tests (now 958542) since a day ago | 14:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: BBC presenter Lisa Shaw died of Covid vaccine complications, coroner finds → https://is.gd/oP4waI | 14:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Judge plans to rule on Purdue settlement Friday; Biden administration considering Covid boosters after six months → https://is.gd/TPY2th | 14:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +2811 cases (now 768001) since 23 hours ago — Denmark: +658 cases (now 341003), +3 deaths (now 2573), +164228 tests (now 80.3 million) since 23 hours ago | 14:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: EU migration wrangle — Economist Joseph Stiglitz — EMA chief Emer Cooke: In the wake of the withdrawal of western forces from Afghanistan, the EU is confronting renewed questions about its asylum policy. We also look at the state of the global economy, as well as Europe’s coronavirus battle. POLITICO’s Matthew Karnitschnig is [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/g3vRNK | 15:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: R to @EricTopol: There is a mask mandate plus free medical grade and N95 masks https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/free-masks-out-of-stock-by-noon-at-some-locations-temasek-foundation-says → https://is.gd/cUuNlu | 15:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Health: How COVID, Inequality and Politics Make a Vicious Syndemic → https://is.gd/vcbowL | 16:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Vietnam: +11575 cases (now 392938), +318 deaths (now 9667) since 23 hours ago — Serbia: +2454 cases (now 751147), +7 deaths (now 7240), +14270 tests (now 5.0 million) since a day ago — Ghana: +420 cases (now 115945), +38431 tests (now 1.6 million) since 2 days ago — Gibraltar: +6 cases (now 5314), +970 tests (now 333653) since a day ago | 16:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: I'm infectious disease expert Amesh Adalja. Ask me anything about COVID-19 variants and vaccines: My name is Amesh Adalja and I am a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and a practicing infectious disease, critical care, and emergency medicine physician. I focus on emerging infectious diseases, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/mkQzFf | 16:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Just published @Nature By the end of 2020, 31% of Americans had Covid.Some parts of the US (e.g. Dakotas) > 60%; LA 52%In-depth analysis of all 3,142 counties@SenPei_CU @ColumbiaMSPH and colleagueshttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03914-4 → https://is.gd/K2vmg5 | 17:09 |
| imaginary | wait what | 17:22 |
| lastshell | https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/08/26/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html | 17:26 |
| lastshell | With more than 100,000 people in the hospital with Covid-19 in the US, this August is worse than last, expert says ^ | 17:27 |
| LjL | imaginary, so maybe the waves are really herd immunity, or were before delta | 17:27 |
| LjL | every new take on it seems like a throw of the deice | 17:28 |
| LjL | dice | 17:28 |
| imaginary | yeah idek | 17:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Montenegro: +764 cases (now 112500), +9 deaths (now 1704) since 20 hours ago — Cuba: +8509 cases (now 619672), +96 deaths (now 4902), +54488 tests (now 7.7 million) since 22 hours ago — Bangladesh: +4698 cases (now 1.5 million), +102 deaths (now 25729) since 16 hours ago — Isle of Man: +76 cases (now 6508), +1 deaths (now 38) since 20 hours ago | 17:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: UK cases continue to rise amid warnings of impact of schools reopening: The numbers of covid cases, hospitalisations, and deaths are continuing to rise across the UK, the latest figures have shown. In England, 200 705 people tested positive for covid-19 in the week to 18... → https://is.gd/3pB1aL | 17:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +37962 cases (now 6.6 million), +966049 tests (now 265.7 million) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +9226 cases (now 3.9 million), +127 deaths (now 92416) since 23 hours ago | 18:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: COVID Vaccination Will Be Required on Disney Cruises to Bahamas: Beginning September 3, U.S. passengers aged 12 and older will have to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination before boarding Disney Cruise Line voyages to the Bahamas. → https://is.gd/Cw8osN | 18:10 |
| de-facto | i guess every year will become worse, until governments realize they have to stop breeding more aggressive variants and eliminate this damn thing | 18:24 |
| pwr22 | de-facto: I'm still sticking with my initial estimate of "covid is gonne be be a big deal for 4 years" | 18:26 |
| pwr22 | Based on historical trends as I understand them | 18:27 |
| pwr22 | I did hope would would have another generation of vaccines deployed in the population by now though that might shrink that | 18:27 |
| pwr22 | * I did hope we would have another generation of vaccines deployed in the population by now though that might shrink that | 18:27 |
| de-facto | vaccines dont work to kill the shedding, they do work to make the immune system acquainted with the s-protein and prevent severe progressions | 18:28 |
| de-facto | the spread has to be contained with firing with all measures, that necessarily included hard lockdowns until this thing is gone | 18:29 |
| de-facto | and as long as breeding of mutants is tolerated we will see vaccine breakthrough infections with increasing severity | 18:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kenya: +817 cases (now 232869), +35 deaths (now 4635), +6350 tests (now 2.3 million) since 22 hours ago — Chile: +785 cases (now 1.6 million), +60 deaths (now 36778), +63985 tests (now 20.0 million) since 23 hours ago — Qatar: +156 cases (now 231715), +5762 tests (now 2.5 million) since 22 hours ago | 18:30 |
| de-facto | my prediction: new nasty mutant emerging from delta no later than this winter | 18:31 |
| de-facto | oh well maybe governments will understand if a pattern re-emerges every year with more pronounced severity | 18:32 |
| de-facto | after a few years finally going for a strict elimination strategy without any tolerance | 18:32 |
| de-facto | i guess we will see in the next decade or such | 18:33 |
| de-facto | its all a question of priorities and strictness about implementing containment, anything beyond R<1 is absolutely not tolerable imho | 18:34 |
| de-facto | any possible compromise is in favor of the pathogen, hence not tolerable | 18:36 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/rObNCQE https://i.imgur.com/sXfoSGC.png src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-08-26.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 18:46 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Weekly incidence per 100k by age group - Album on Imgur | 18:46 |
| Arsanerit | why is it increasing in 90+ so much? | 18:47 |
| de-facto | notice: Delta does not stay in the young, it diffuses in the older cohorts just fine :/ | 18:47 |
| de-facto | just compare to week 40-42 of 2020, except, well except we are in week 33 of 2021 | 18:49 |
| Arsanerit | Mortality still near zero? | 18:49 |
| Arsanerit | What is the way out of the pandemic, the exit strategy? | 18:50 |
| de-facto | elimination | 18:50 |
| lastshell | I just want this virus to go away | 18:50 |
| Arsanerit | Is it true that in Germany parents can prohibit their teenage children from getting vaccinated? | 18:51 |
| de-facto | we have still have low fatalities in the 20 per day, but wait for the incidence to creep into the older age groups again it will go up | 18:51 |
| de-facto | and with R~1.3 doubling each 11 days it soon will be a real problem again | 18:51 |
| Arsanerit | Most in the older age groups are vaccinated though? | 18:51 |
| de-facto | afaik we still also have a vaccination gap in the older age groups | 18:52 |
| Arsanerit | It says 81% of 60+ fully vacicnated | 18:52 |
| de-facto | if only 4 of 5 Germans over 18 years will go for vaccine protection it means 16M are potentially unprotected contaminated with Delta and if unlucky end up in hospital or even ICU | 18:53 |
| Arsanerit | Isn't that mostly their own fault though? | 18:53 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/VbHddOX https://i.imgur.com/TdzsAVv.jpeg https://impfdashboard.de/static/data/germany_vaccinations_timeseries_v2.tsv meaning asymptotic vaccination of v=64.72% | 18:54 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany vaccination rates - Album on Imgur | 18:54 |
| de-facto | data from yesterday | 18:54 |
| de-facto | yellow is vaccination rate in percent, green is fit residual of accumulated | 18:54 |
| Arsanerit | Is it reasonable to pressure teenagers to get a vaccine for a disease that is very unlikely to harm them, when the vaccine at best partly protects against asymptomatic infections and teenagers may suffer from known or unknown side-effects in short or long term? | 18:55 |
| de-facto | fit residual 100-fold to make it visible | 18:55 |
| de-facto | noone should be pressured to vaccinate | 18:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: WHO Team: Search for Coronavirus Origins at a Standstill: Experts have been unsuccessful pinpointing the origin of COVID-19, and the window of opportunity may be closing. → https://is.gd/Xta8MX | 18:56 |
| Arsanerit | My colleague's teenager has a mandatory school trip in autumn, which includes staying in a hostel, maybe the hostel requires vaccinations? I guess the solution is that there should not be a mandatory school trip now. Never? | 18:57 |
| de-facto | @ Brainstorm hence also the window to find the natural host, a real disadvantage for CHina if lab leak will not be ruled out by finding natural host | 18:57 |
| Arsanerit | You don't support quasi-mandatory vaccinations? | 18:58 |
| de-facto | no, i think we should convince people with honesty and their personal profit from vaccination | 18:58 |
| de-facto | i support mandatory NPIs though | 18:58 |
| de-facto | everything needed to enforce R<1 | 18:59 |
| de-facto | i am really frustrated with management right now, they lay the foundation of a really nasty 4th wave | 19:00 |
| Arsanerit | Do you support a "2-G rule" for places such as restaurants and museums? | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | How nasty is the ongoing wave in UK or Netherlands? | 19:01 |
| de-facto | no we should test as many as possible, status of vaccination or recovery does not matter | 19:01 |
| de-facto | absolutely outrageous that they try to make free tests non-free again | 19:02 |
| de-facto | we need MORE tests not less | 19:02 |
| de-facto | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom;Germany;Netherlands&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes | 19:04 |
| de-facto | fatalities going up again | 19:04 |
| de-facto | there is only one way to fight this damn thing: a strict elimination strategy that out-ways every other priority | 19:06 |
| Arsanerit | you don't believe in it becoming endemic and manageable? | 19:06 |
| de-facto | i think it will become more aggressive each year | 19:06 |
| Arsanerit | :-/ | 19:10 |
| de-facto | in Germany right now the origin of every 2nd infection is known, and for 4 of those 1 is an import by travelers | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | bbl | 19:11 |
| de-facto | the breeding has to end, at any costs | 19:11 |
| specing | will it turn into something like antibiotic resistant bacteria, but for viruses? | 19:18 |
| specing | maybe some supervirus that regularly changes which proteins it exhibits | 19:19 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/0f55p2r https://i.imgur.com/JkAlgz2.png src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-08-26.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 19:20 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 VoCs - Album on Imgur | 19:20 |
| de-facto | almost exclusively Delta now, 99,3% | 19:20 |
| de-facto | so we need new categories like those AY.? since we will see many mutants emerging from Delta lineage | 19:21 |
| de-facto | specing, the virus will optimize its fitness (hence also aggressiveness) in the circumstances it replicates, so if that is tolerated in a mostly vaccinated population it will become better and better in evasion | 19:23 |
| de-facto | and due to the very sharp selection it will probably become much more aggressive | 19:24 |
| specing | so, we are probably in for a decade of lockdowns | 19:24 |
| de-facto | only those mutations that are fit enough to replicate in a fully vaccinated and jump to another host where they can exploit the same immunity vulnerabilities will spread efficiently, taking over the less fit ones | 19:25 |
| de-facto | idk if its only a decade, i dont see any reason it would end unless a strict elimination strategy is implemented worldwide | 19:26 |
| de-facto | and it will become more of a challenge with every additional year of breeding mutants | 19:27 |
| de-facto | because not only will the mutants become more fit, they also become more diverse | 19:28 |
| de-facto | the phylogenetic tree expands in diversity, more and more branches will develop independently and spread worldwide by passengers | 19:29 |
| de-facto | maybe at some point managements will start to realize that there is only one sane strategy with this: strict elimination | 19:31 |
| specing | one decade to develop superdrugs :P | 19:31 |
| de-facto | well we definitely need more broad vaccines, ones that cover more variants somehow | 19:32 |
| de-facto | i think that is the next step in vaccine development, artificial epitope design to somehow create antibodies that have affinity to a much wider variety of variants (including those that dont even exist yet) | 19:34 |
| specing | maybe computerised kidneys that can filter blood and adapt much faster than the human immune system can | 19:34 |
| de-facto | not sure if that is possible, but if would be awesome if there was progress in that direction | 19:34 |
| specing | like dialisis systems. You catch covid and they plug you in for a few hours | 19:34 |
| de-facto | specing, its not only in the blood though | 19:34 |
| de-facto | its everywhere where it can enter cells | 19:34 |
| specing | yes, but such a system could produce defence cells | 19:35 |
| de-facto | and it seems that includes many parts of the human body unfortunately | 19:35 |
| specing | and pump your blood stream full of them | 19:35 |
| de-facto | the problem with static antibodies (e.g. without feedback for adapting to antigenic drift of the pathogen) is that it provides selection pressure always in the same direction | 19:36 |
| de-facto | meaning if the pathogen found a way to circumvent affinity it will continue evolving on that trajectory without the affinity of the artificial antibodies to be able to "follow" that antigenic drift | 19:37 |
| de-facto | crazy idea: what would happen if we collected currently circulating variants, grow them in cells, kill them and spray them in *everyones* noses at the same time worldwide? | 19:40 |
| de-facto | like all the variety that currently circulates | 19:41 |
| de-facto | but yeah that would have to be enforced, because people will refuse to do that etc, so not possible i guess | 19:42 |
| de-facto | i am against enforcing anything invading peoples bodies | 19:42 |
| specing | de-facto: you mean the chinese vaccine method? lol | 20:00 |
| specing | inactivated covid | 20:01 |
| specing | I think we'll reach mandatory vaccination in less than 6 months | 20:01 |
| specing | it's coming... slowly | 20:01 |
| lastshell | does Israel cases are also going up with vaccinated people ? | 20:02 |
| nixonix | mandatory vaccinations in 6 months, where was it? (i might remember, if you were that oligopeptide guy) | 20:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Monoclonal Antibodies vs. Vaccines vs. COVID-19: What to Know: Whether you’ve just tested positive or been exposed, monoclonal antibodies could help you and your loved ones stave off COVID-19. Here’s what you need to know. → https://is.gd/lHBTre | 20:05 |
| lastshell | https://scitechdaily.com/inescapable-covid-19-antibody-discovery-neutralizes-all-known-sars-cov-2-strains/ | 20:05 |
| specing | nixonix: slovenia (EU) | 20:05 |
| specing | nixonix: I can see it slowly coming to that | 20:05 |
| nixonix | ok. i think he was from russia (oligopeptides) | 20:06 |
| specing | austria already has it for several sectors of society (teachers, healthcare) | 20:06 |
| nixonix | yeah, lets see, but i think full mandatory vaccinations wont be common, because how do you force it. with tickets maybe, but other really enforced, police would have to hold people, and nurses agree to jab them. i dont think that will happen in western countries, especially when the trend is just let it rip, especially in schools... | 20:07 |
| nixonix | yeah, hc and maybe schools, but not like for everybody | 20:08 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/Orla_Hegarty/status/1430935760421675019 | 20:08 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Orla Hegarty (@Orla_Hegarty): "*IF* the Irish govt & medical institutions are adopting a high-risk & morally questionable plan of uncontrolled infection of children (to ‘get it over with’)..we need to [...] | 20:08 |
| de-facto | specing, the significant difference being 1) in the nasal and pharyngeal mucus for all antigenic variants 2) all at once worldwide synchronized | 20:09 |
| de-facto | but yeah unrealistic, wont happen | 20:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Albania: +888 cases (now 142253), +3 deaths (now 2486), +6619 tests (now 1.0 million) since a day ago — Morocco: +7357 cases (now 836494), +97 deaths (now 12176), +45232 tests (now 8.8 million) since a day ago — Italy: +7215 cases (now 4.5 million), +43 deaths (now 128957) since a day ago [... want %more?] | 20:10 |
| pwr22 | de-facto: the inactivated covid cocktail sounds like an interesting idea. I think sadly it's not that our current vaccine methods don't work but that we haven't iterated them at all so if we had actually bothered to update them as variants happen and continuously push these through the testing and deployment pipeline then we would have much better attenuation of delta right now | 20:10 |
| specing | lol, governments are really good at forcing things | 20:10 |
| nixonix | i checked how is it spreading in eastern europe now, and it looks like cases going up fast in balkan and baltia, but visegrad is stable (and romania and ukraine, although i dont trust their stats) | 20:10 |
| specing | if they try | 20:10 |
| pwr22 | Without the riskier inactivated approach | 20:10 |
| pwr22 | We kept hearing about how the vaccines can be "so easily updated" for newer variants | 20:10 |
| nixonix | since delta raised the bar for immunity threshold, they are likely to follow. for some reason just not happening yet in visegrad | 20:10 |
| pwr22 | but they all target only a single spike and it's all basically the initial spike which is ancient at this point | 20:11 |
| lastshell | but vaccines only tacke one spike protein ? | 20:11 |
| lastshell | what about the others ? | 20:11 |
| pwr22 | There's no reason we need only target one | 20:11 |
| nixonix | i just read helsinki uni hospitals diagnostic chiefs twitter arguing. he said our summer wave was from russia (soccer hooligans, but also lots of russians moving between countries), and now lots of delta is coming from balkan | 20:11 |
| nixonix | so keep your borders tight to that direction | 20:12 |
| pwr22 | But also, they are a lineage that drifts over time so better to target one delta spike now than one ancient spike to delta and it's descendent | 20:12 |
| pwr22 | * But also, they are a lineage that drifts over time so better to target one delta spike now than one ancient spike to delta and it's descendents | 20:12 |
| de-facto | we would have to 1) have vaccines that induce a very broad immunity (affine to all [present, emerging] variants) 2) give it to every potential carrier at the *same* instant in time (so that peak immunity is reached worldwide synchronized) 3) combine that with a strict NPI concept | 20:12 |
| lastshell | I don't remember in what video https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching Dr. John Cambell mentioned that best inmunity comes after 2 shots couple of weeks and then get exposed to covid | 20:13 |
| pwr22 | Btw, can someone on IRC tell me if the matrix bridge is doing the new shorter edits for me now or is it still duplicating my whole message above? | 20:13 |
| de-facto | then we *may* have the chance for elimination, but since that plan is unrealistic it will stay indefinitely | 20:13 |
| nixonix | it looks like we need another vaccinate for upper respiratory, to mitigate spreading too | 20:13 |
| nixonix | any news about nasal vaccines, which one and when are phase 3 trials ready? | 20:14 |
| nixonix | *vaccine | 20:14 |
| pwr22 | de-facto: I will settle for better rather than perfect measures right now | 20:14 |
| pwr22 | Cos right now in the UK it's hard to be treating the situation worse IMO | 20:15 |
| lastshell | nixonix https://www.drugtargetreview.com/news/96104/intranasal-covid-19-vaccine-shown-to-be-effective-in-animal-models/ | 20:15 |
| pwr22 | I wonder if just spraying some sort of surfactant up the nose regularly would help limit spread at all? | 20:15 |
| de-facto | if all this would be seen from the perspective of a test for humanity to handle biosecurity, i guess everyone would agree its a straight fail so far | 20:16 |
| nixonix | id like to avoid viral vectors. boosting may not be effective, although not sure if the same applies to nasal vaccines | 20:16 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1430513493338255370 | 20:17 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): "Since FDA, is trying to post-facto regulate Pfizer boosters, I hope we J&J recipients don't end up stuck with this platform. I don't think it's as good a [...] | 20:17 |
| nixonix | he took jnj for some reason. i wonder why | 20:17 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1430493296229371908 | 20:18 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): "If I may- IF YOU GET COVID, seek REGENERON MAb monoclonal antibody treatment. Don't care if you aren't sick (yet)." | nitter | 20:18 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/KaileyTracy/status/1428370261934415881 | 20:21 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Kailey Tracy (@KaileyTracy): "NEW: COJ confirms picture was taken at downtown library monoclonal antibody center yesterday. Woman who posted picture to Reddit says her husband took it, saw people [...] | 20:21 |
| nixonix | so if you have early symptoms (when those moabs work, they dont work when you already need oxygen), they will give you thousands of dollars worth of mAbs? | 20:22 |
| nixonix | 500-2k a pop. how many doses? 1 is good or 5? | 20:22 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/ActionNewsJax/status/1428892125677170693 | 20:22 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: ActionNewsJax (@ActionNewsJax): "After people were pictured lying on the floor at the Jacksonville antibody treatment center, signs like this now greet patients | STORY >> http://bit.ly/3j1rpRZ" | [...] | 20:22 |
| dTal | buy bowflex and get moabs | 20:22 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1359644621003317 | 20:24 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.sciencedirect.com: Intranasal vaccines for SARS-CoV-2: From challenges to potential in COVID-19 management - ScienceDirect | 20:24 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1416350414153392128 | 20:28 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Gupta Lab (@GuptaR_lab): "We now further define Delta immune evasion using a panel of 38 monoclonal antibodies, showing significant loss of potency of NTD and RBD targeting antibodies. Imdevimab, part [...] | 20:28 |
| nixonix | "Imdevimab, part of the REGN2 dual monoclonal antibody cocktail is compromised by Delta | 20:29 |
| de-facto | monoclonal antibodies are unable to adjust for antigenic drift by positive selection for evasive mutants | 20:29 |
| de-facto | so buy all of those on the market, and make a yummy cocktail from them, maybe it will help for a short while until the pathogen found evasion from them | 20:30 |
| nixonix | yeah, better use those that work fast, the shelf-life wont be long... | 20:31 |
| de-facto | but yeah why not give them as drive in, then do a corona party for evasive mutant super spreads after the moab shots? | 20:33 |
| de-facto | (sorry for the sarcasm) | 20:33 |
| de-facto | every carrier with moabs in the system is a breeding ground for evasion mutants from them, hence transmission from such a breeding factory should be restricted | 20:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +7115 cases (now 4.8 million), +171 deaths (now 83861) since 23 hours ago — Chad: +2 cases (now 4989), +299 tests (now 138128) since 2 days ago | 20:34 |
| nixonix | i not think any country has so much money to give them to people, that using them would be high risk for new variants that would actually replace the current one. sure theres a small increased chance | 20:35 |
| nixonix | the problem is, they are expensive, would need to use for early symptoms, and efficacy is limited | 20:35 |
| nixonix | so those moab clinics in some us states (or are they everywhere?), maybe mostly a way to transfer tax money to big pharma, and gain political points | 20:36 |
| nixonix | if the list price for hospital is 2k, and they are getting semi-inefficient for current variant, maybe they will sell the old stock to states like -90% reduction | 20:38 |
| twomoon | hi nixonix i was lookin for ya last night | 20:38 |
| de-facto | moabs maybe a good chance for people with immune system problems such as HIV positive or such | 20:38 |
| nixonix | from window? | 20:39 |
| de-facto | but imho they should be given only in strict isolation, to ensure the infection chain is ended at that patient | 20:39 |
| nixonix | i havent really seen anywhere menioned, that using moabs would be risky for new variants to emerge | 20:41 |
| nixonix | +t | 20:41 |
| nixonix | maybe using them for immunosupressive patients could be. but they would also benefit from it most | 20:43 |
| de-facto | well i guess such a paper could put the authors on a blacklist of big pharma | 20:43 |
| de-facto | btw it also depends on how many infection chains were selected by moabs, as long as that contribution to over all incidence the evasion problem may remain local (e.g. in that infection chain there inside that family or social circle) | 20:45 |
| de-facto | *as long as that contribution to over all incidence remains small, the evasion problem may remain local | 20:46 |
| nixonix | cases going up in most of europe exp visegrad. and schools have reopened only in scandinavia and scotland i think | 20:48 |
| nixonix | also australia said they are starting to vaccinate 12+ yo soon. only uk behind in the west? | 20:49 |
| nixonix | remember fisman, who tweeted about grim forecast in ontario, and wanted it realeased for public? | 20:51 |
| nixonix | .title https://globalnews.ca/news/8133497/ontario-covid-science-table-member-resigns-modelling-data/ | 20:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Humanitarians Push to Vaccinate in Conflict Zones: Afghans fill out vaccination cards without power as they register for the J&J vaccine at the Wazir Akbar Khan hospital on July 14, 2021 in Kabul, Afghanistan. More than 1.4 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine arrived in Afghanistan donated by the United [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Lay6I6 | 20:51 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From globalnews.ca: Ontario COVID-19 science table member resigns after alleging withheld data projects ‘grim fall’ | Globalnews.ca | 20:51 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1430834507523915776 two vacc breakthrouhgs, second time with delta worse | 20:59 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Dr Zoë Hyde (@DrZoeHyde): "Reinfections and breakthrough infections are common when community transmission is high, and not always mild. This case report describes a person infected 3 times: an [...] | 20:59 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/LSHTM/status/1430828286872100864 they have done the same in finland, research paper still not out, i think | 21:00 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (@LSHTM): "This #InternationalDogDay check out our 'ultimutt' disease detectors...🐶 Our trial found these furry friends can sniff out #COVID19 with 94% [...] | 21:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Monoclonal Antibodies to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection Shows Positive Results: Positive results of a phase 3 trial of Regeneron’s monoclonal antibodies treatment REGEN-COV among people at high risk for COVID-19 because of household exposure support the drug’s use for post-exposure prophylaxis. → https://is.gd/HCzw9S | 21:02 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1430879235930009611 | 21:07 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Irene Tosetti (@itosettiMD_MBA): "No, colleague Weissflog. Just for covid19, a SARS vasculitis that needs hospitalization for one every 180 children, gives rise to long COVID-19 in 3.8% of kids [...] | 21:07 |
| nixonix | .title https://technionmail-my.sharepoint.com/personal/yairgo_technion_ac_il/_layouts/15/onedrive.aspx?id=%2Fpersonal%2Fyairgo%5Ftechnion%5Fac%5Fil%2FDocuments%2FCorona%2Fwaning%5Fimmunity%2FWaning%20immunity%20of%20the%20BNT162b2%20vaccine%20A%20nationwide%20study%20from%20Israel%2Epdf&parent=%2Fpersonal%2Fyairgo%5Ftechnion%5Fac%5Fil%2FDocuments%2 | 21:17 |
| nixonix | FCorona%2Fwaning%5Fimmunity&originalPath=aHR0cHM6Ly90ZWNobmlvbm1haWwtbXkuc2hhcmVwb2ludC5jb20vOmI6L2cvcGVyc29uYWwveWFpcmdvX3RlY2huaW9uX2FjX2lsL0VZU0w3aW1qaG41TnNtM3BMc0JEYmVRQjZGZ2pvVjFERTNRLXhjSFZ5aS1Hanc%5FcnRpbWU9Rk5odm5NVm8yVWc | 21:17 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From technionmail-my.sharepoint.com: Sign in to your account | 21:17 |
| nixonix | * Waning immunity of the BNT162b2 vaccine: A nationwide study from Israel | 21:17 |
| nixonix | finally | 21:17 |
| de-facto | uff use url shortener pls | 21:18 |
| de-facto | that link does not work | 21:19 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/bn9hZyH https://i.imgur.com/jusrgI7.png src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-08-26.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 21:23 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID GERMANY: Vaccination prevalence per age group - Album on Imgur | 21:23 |
| nixonix | ah sorry, a min | 21:23 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/ofraam/status/1430165917393113089 | 21:24 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Ofra Amir (@ofraam): "A new pre-print of a study showing a detailed analysis of waning immunity in Israel: https://tinyurl.com/WaningCOVID19 TL/DR: infection rate and severe disease rates both [...] | 21:24 |
| de-facto | ok so above long url is shortened to https://t.co/3OwrnDTpV6 | 21:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: Circulation of 21A (Delta) SARS-CoV-2 variant in Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil: Update information – samples analysis from July 24, 2021, to August 13, 2021. Our group has recently reported the whole viral genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis performed in 29 naso-oropharyngeal swab samples collected [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/RBWllP | 21:26 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/19/french-scientist-who-pushed-unproven-covid-drug-hydroxychloroquine-may-be-forced-from-post | 21:32 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.theguardian.com: French scientist who pushed unproven Covid drug may be forced from post | Coronavirus | The Guardian | 21:32 |
| de-facto | .title https://twitter.com/TsuDhoNimh/status/1430302591032823814 | 21:33 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From twitter.com: Tsu Dho Nimh BSC, MT(ASCP), AA, ET etc. (@TsuDhoNimh): "And age of patient - Israel started with their oldest people, so the expected decline in circulating antibodies starts with them. Compared to [...] | 21:33 |
| de-facto | https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9l0RzYVoAEEHCK?format=jpg&name=large | 21:33 |
| nixonix | very slow invasion to south america it seems | 21:35 |
| de-facto | yeah we really need to look at cases in categories of 1) incidence per age group 2) vaccination age 3) SARS-CoV-2 Lineage | 21:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for South Africa: +12771 cases (now 2.7 million), +357 deaths (now 80826), +66116 tests (now 16.2 million) since a day ago — France: +69 deaths (now 113969) since 19 hours ago | 21:37 |
| de-facto | nixonix, i wonder how the reproduction number of a specific strain depends on its specific predecessor, e.g. if Delta got a disadvantage in spread in a population that mainly got immunized by Gamma or such | 21:38 |
| de-facto | as opposed to Alpha for example | 21:39 |
| nixonix | its possible | 21:39 |
| de-facto | there are those high contact rate individuals, that probably would connect social bubbles, so even when not everyone got Gamma, it may be those "bridge-spreaders" that have carry immunity against, e.g. Gamma or such | 21:40 |
| de-facto | (completely speculative) | 21:41 |
| nixonix | also strange differencies in kids hospitalizations. according to helsinki uni hosp diagnostic chief, during the whole epidemic (5.5M population, prevalence a bit over 6% is my estimate), only 5 kids been in ICU, and no confirmation was the original reason sars2 infection | 21:45 |
| nixonix | (not sure if he meant <18 yo with kids) and when compared to us kids hospitalization rate, in helsinki metro area (population 1.7M and usually highest cases) we should have had 1 kid patients per day | 21:46 |
| nixonix | but that 1.7M HUS area hasnt had single <18 yo patients during the whole epidemic, according to him. i have the finnish tweet if anyone wants the link | 21:47 |
| de-facto | .title https://twitter.com/NC5PhilWilliams/status/1430859434016878601 | 21:48 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From twitter.com: Phil Williams (@NC5PhilWilliams): "This morning, 60 Tennessean children are hospitalized with #COVID19. 16 are in ICU, 6 are on ventilators. Last week, 1,300 children were treated through ERs. 2/2" | [...] | 21:48 |
| nixonix | so they seem to roll with estimate that dangerousness is what our own stats show, and dont care about school infections, or what data from other countries show | 21:48 |
| de-facto | i am pretty sure it will become more aggressive in children too, just because breeding is tolerated | 21:49 |
| nixonix | also not considering POD, telomeres, brain image study etc (at least before published in lancet... | 21:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: New data from J&J vaccine to show durable, stable levels of neutralizing antibodies after single dose out to 8-9 months, and booster effect (at 6 months) with a 2nd dose with the 9-fold increase (widely reported in press release, media yesterday)https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.25.21262569v1 → https://is.gd/9cMVPK | 21:49 |
| nixonix | its not been much among kids yet, though, as schools used to had decent mitigations, quarantines, remote learning for older kids at some regions in the winter high case times (and spring 2020 whole country) | 21:50 |
| nixonix | steadily increasing since mid july, and now school measures seem to vary by school or city. some hearing afterwards, when a kid comes back, that he just had a rona. with 0 - few buddies quarantined | 21:51 |
| nixonix | one city region just announced, that double vaccinated who only has mild symptoms dont need to go to test anymore. but not going to work is recommended still | 21:52 |
| nixonix | tegnell seems to get what he wanted. looks like he is winning | 21:52 |
| nixonix | so any ideas how this could be way more dangerous for kids in some western countries than some others? other than bad analysis of data, like not considering the actual infections instead of identified ones | 22:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Med Schools’ Equity Efforts Thwarted by Pandemic: Efforts to improve diversity and equity in academic medicine have been “moved to the back burner” in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, despite a growing need to address racial disparities, said the top diversity expert at the Association of American Medical Colleges. → https://is.gd/2vswo0 | 22:01 |
| nixonix | genetics, doesnt seem to apply for adults, comparing fatalities in spring 2020 | 22:01 |
| nixonix | vitamin d, not likely during the summer, when we are living on latitude of alaska | 22:02 |
| de-facto | prevalence and viral contamination doses? | 22:03 |
| de-facto | children getting it from some adults, depending on environment they may be exposed to bigger or smaller contamination with the pathogen | 22:03 |
| de-facto | or maybe they get it from each others? | 22:03 |
| nixonix | we have had the least amount of infection in the western countries, excluding nz and aus | 22:04 |
| de-facto | yet i guess contamination doses could play a role in the differences | 22:04 |
| nixonix | same, not much virus around here, compared to most | 22:04 |
| de-facto | as does real background incidence, because incidence itself depends on testing strategies | 22:04 |
| de-facto | so maybe comparing children to adult hospitalization rates could make more sense? | 22:05 |
| de-facto | at least for comparable healthcare systems | 22:05 |
| nixonix | bmi or other health issues, i have no idea how we would rank with those | 22:05 |
| nixonix | yeah. do yanks have good hospitalization stats for the whole country? | 22:06 |
| nixonix | but it seems some of those that would need to get in hospital, get triaged and need to go lying on floor of moab centers | 22:07 |
| nixonix | .title https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/25/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html | 22:09 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From edition.cnn.com: US Covid-19 cases among children are surging. It may get worse - CNN | 22:09 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/PienaarJm/status/1429011842530152458 | 22:10 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: JM Pienaar (@PienaarJm): "Based on this the severe disease risk doubles every decade vs 3.4x increase for IFR/ decade based on Levin et al. I assume severe disease is better proxy for age gradient of [...] | 22:10 |
| nixonix | that guy has some israel data analysis on his twitter account, which might be worth checking out | 22:11 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/PienaarJm/status/1427983162693623817 | 22:18 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: JM Pienaar (@PienaarJm): "It seems the blundering statistician at Israel's MoH has been at it again. Trend on graph top left disappears if you adjust for age (I used age weighted average IFR as [...] | 22:18 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/PienaarJm/status/1429719714096422918 | 22:31 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: JM Pienaar (@PienaarJm): "Table 3 compares ABs for vax v conv: -Significant that for conv they’re > in >60s suggesting severity of disease is causal -For vax they’re > in <60s showing superior [...] | 22:31 |
| nixonix | Bone marrow plasma cells (BMPCs) are an essential source of medium-term protective antibodies both after vaccination and infection(Halliley et al., 2015; Nutt et al., 2015), but longer-term protection likely requires memory B cells(Iwasaki, 2016; Turner et al., 2021a) | 22:36 |
| nixonix | really that way? | 22:37 |
| nixonix | remember that bmpc study (which didnt go into depths like neuralizing or not, and didnt study those from vaccine, only from infection). but they thought they might last there for decades or life | 22:38 |
| twomoon | why are memory B cells so important? | 22:38 |
| nixonix | they will do somatic hypermutation and those binding to antigen more efficiently are selected for proliferation in germinal centers, so the quality improves, and they last longer than continually secreted abs | 22:39 |
| nixonix | when the binding affinity improves, they also bind more efficiently to new variants that have the epitope changed, reducing affinity of original antibodies | 22:40 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.19.21262111v1 | 22:41 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medrxiv.org: Large-scale study of antibody titer decay following BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine or SARS-CoV-2 infection | medRxiv | 22:41 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4 | 22:42 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nature.com: SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans | Nature | 22:42 |
| nixonix | but apparently there wont be increased affinity for those, unlike germinal center b-cells. but im not sure | 22:43 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1428859554058543107 | 22:45 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Shane Crotty (@profshanecrotty): "The original coronavirus wasn't that hard for the immune system to stop, and 2-doses of vaccine worked amazing --even 1-dose was good. Most vaccines are a 3 dose [...] | 22:45 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1429062897867632655 - good read, if you read the earlier tweets of that data analysis guy | 22:51 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Marc Lipsitch (@mlipsitch): "Agree in principle that much tighter adjustment for confounding would give greater confidence, as we did in https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2101765. However [...] | 22:51 |
| finely[m] | <de-facto> "yet i guess contamination..." <- Especially since a lot of Southern US has widespread antimask sentiment. | 23:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Colleges and universities must require vaccination. With full FDA approval, only 753 of ~4000 have done so thus far. It shouldn't require the struggle as reviewed herehttp://science.sciencemag.org/content/373/6558/945@ScienceMagazine → https://is.gd/XdLItt | 23:09 |
| de-facto | finely[m], yeah strange, its the cheapest containment method and allows most of the activities to still be done somehow, i dont understand why people are opposed to that | 23:11 |
| de-facto | from the spectrum of containment measures as many have to be employed as required to always maintain R<1, so without masks something else (probably more expensive) would have to replace that | 23:12 |
| de-facto | also i think we should aggressively promote more testing, everyone should test 2 times a week with PCR | 23:14 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/TimesFreePress/status/1430711654292000773 | 23:14 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Times Free Press (@TimesFreePress): ""We had 14,000 pediatric cases in the last seven days, which is a 57% increase over the week prior," said commissioner Lisa Piercey. "Right now, 36% of all of our [...] | 23:14 |
| de-facto | that would make a big difference i guess | 23:14 |
| nixonix | here they want to reduce testing because it takes too much personnel from othr hc (must be nurse here) | 23:15 |
| de-facto | it should be made more streamlined and efficient | 23:16 |
| de-facto | its just a trivial technical challenge for engineers to solve | 23:16 |
| theedude[m] | i wish they would enforce masks at my daughters elementary school. they hae a dashboard where we can see the active cases, and it's doubling almost every other day. | 23:17 |
| nixonix | they have suggested pharmacy personnel used, which have right to handle ppls medical records at some level, but then there would be infected persons in the premises waiting to be tested | 23:17 |
| de-facto | why not have everyone spit in a sample tube and put it in a collection box that is emptied into a PCR robot? | 23:17 |
| de-facto | theedude[m], what is the reproduction number (for all ages) at your place? how does that compare to the one in children? | 23:18 |
| nixonix | i dont know how they are planning to solve that judicial and premises prob when some virus or variant comes that kills like 20%... | 23:18 |
| de-facto | this is the chance to build up an infrastructure for testing that easily can be switched to any pathogen | 23:19 |
| nixonix | i guess we just let it rip, because all the needed arrangements would be laborious to do (they used that argument when telling why finland hasnt tried to do its own vaccine orders) | 23:19 |
| de-facto | it would be very much cheaper to test everyone two times a week than do all the shenanigans we did for almost two years now | 23:20 |
| nixonix | yeah, spit testing is the way to go anyway | 23:20 |
| de-facto | its just a question of how to industrialize PCR to scale to gigantic throughput by a distributed approach | 23:20 |
| de-facto | such machines, they could NOW be tested in a real world scenario, they could be properly calibrated etc pp | 23:21 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1427580653399416832 | 23:21 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Irene Tosetti (@itosettiMD_MBA): "Usually it is saliva PCR pooled" | El Pajarito de NoGAFAM | 23:21 |
| de-facto | if a country would just put up the *requirement* for everyone to get tested twice a week, the technical problems probably would be solved in no time | 23:22 |
| nixonix | no need for pooled tests in finland, according to our hc officials, because "we have the capacity". its the sample taking personnel, the bottleneck | 23:22 |
| theedude[m] | de-facto: I think its 0.94 according to covidestim.org in Texas. Not sure how to check for just children | 23:22 |
| de-facto | no big labs, no lobbyism, just a fleet of decentralized PCR machines with their supply chain and integration into daily life of a society | 23:23 |
| de-facto | theedude[m], what is the doubling time for cases in children? | 23:23 |
| theedude[m] | de-facto: I don't know even know what that means, sorry. | 23:25 |
| de-facto | the reproduction number is the average number of people that get infected by a carrier in each generation of an infection chain | 23:25 |
| * archpc peeks in | 23:26 | |
| nixonix | no, they are just going to let it burn through the kids, because everything else would be more laborious. and we are like immune system, we try to conserve energy | 23:26 |
| de-facto | so for a given number N(t0) of infections it would become N(t) = N(t0) R ^ ((t-t0)/ts) infections for an average generation time of ts ~ 5.2 days or maybe ts ~ 4 days | 23:27 |
| nixonix | unless people get really angry, like new research showing permanent damage to unvaccinated kids, and possibly for vaccinated kids and adults too, would be really common | 23:27 |
| nixonix | so its crucial that research is made asap | 23:27 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/JoannaTeglund/status/1430893024389722122 | 23:28 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Joanna Teglund🇵🇱🇸🇪 😷 #ZeroCovid (@JoannaTeglund): "🇹🇼 Once again, Taiwan has beaten the virus. "It is ingrained in public opinion that we cannot live with the virus. So that when our CECC hesitated, [...] | 23:28 |
| de-facto | hence doubling would mean N(t) = 2 N(t0) with a doubling time t2 = t - t0 or R = 2 ^ (ts/t2) | 23:29 |
| de-facto | so that doubling time t2 is the duration the cases in an age group (e.g. children) would require to double and from that the reproduction number R in that age group can be calculated | 23:30 |
| de-facto | comparing that reproduction number to over all reproduction number (for all cases) may indicate how much more contagious it currently is in that specific age group relative to background infeciton dynamics | 23:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Large real-world study: Pfizer's COVID vaccine is safe: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Aug 26, 2021 Any slight risk tied to the vaccine was a much higher risk among those infected with COVID-19. → https://is.gd/6JZmwq | 23:32 |
| de-facto | oh btw note the reproduction number depends on the choice for serial time (generation time) ts | 23:32 |
| de-facto | RKI in Germany uses ts = 4d but i know others use ts = 5.2 days | 23:33 |
| de-facto | not sure how accurate it still represents the average duration between two consecutive cases in an average infection chain | 23:34 |
| de-facto | i guess with delta it became shorter as initial viral replication in the upper respiratory tract happens so much faster | 23:34 |
| de-facto | hence infectious threshold of viral shedding reached much earlier | 23:35 |
| de-facto | hmm not sure about peak viral load though | 23:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Zambia: +208 cases (now 205315), +1 deaths (now 3587), +6555 tests (now 2.2 million) since a day ago | 23:41 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1428086899797790731 | 23:43 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Irene Tosetti (@itosettiMD_MBA): "Pretty random and up to a half now in healthy kids (see southern USA stats of peds ICU)" | nitter | 23:43 |
| de-facto | i guess serial time would depend the *median* for viral shedding function in the time of pre-symptomatic infection (assuming people would be sane enough to isolate once they became aware of their infection) | 23:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: US COVID-19 hospital cases match winter surge: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Aug 26, 2021 In addition, the CDC warns about ivermectin, a livestock anti-parasite drug some people have used to treat COVID-19. → https://is.gd/4l816G | 23:54 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1430979888643678208 | 23:58 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "New data from J&J vaccine to show durable, stable levels of neutralizing antibodies after single dose out to 8-9 months, and booster effect (at 6 months) with a 2nd dose with [...] | 23:58 |
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