| nixonix | but for cells, its a balance, proliferating too fast probably kills the host. like b-cells everywhere, that would probably not be good for them. in some situations its good for the host for them to increase, and then reduce later | 00:02 |
|---|---|---|
| nixonix | we are just collection of organisms, and some stuff between them, helping them to communicate (signalling proteins), and different molecules and other stuff that they need | 00:05 |
| nixonix | well mostly in molecules, maybe some free elements idk | 00:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: Andy Becker: Altimmune Inc: AdCOVID → https://is.gd/bnKPpU | 00:07 |
| nixonix | immunology is very complex, and usually just some superficial description of mechanisms are given. it would be nice if there was an app in google store or somethign, you could click for more details, when first looking at less detailed overview of some mechanism | 00:09 |
| nixonix | maybe that kind of app would be a big hit... | 00:09 |
| nixonix | somebody asked about b-cells, i found a nice twitter thread | 00:10 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1432056573124247553 | 00:12 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): "In a recent thread I posited that mechanisms of antibody production, viral resistance, and somatic hypermutation can explain why pre-Delta vaccines block most [...] | 00:12 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/nickmmark/status/1430757135760064512 | 00:20 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Nick Mark MD (@nickmmark): "“Have you seen my ivermectin?”" | nitter | 00:20 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1432461708606377986 - get in that pcr test so you can prove its rona related, and they dont just offer you NLP | 00:24 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix, the URL could not be loaded | 00:24 |
| nixonix | some 1999 study title, when i was googling about oravax: "Passive IgA Monoclonal Antibody Is No More Effective Than IgG at Protecting Mice from Mucosal Challenge with Respiratory Syncytial Virus | 00:38 |
| nixonix | could be different with sars2, or maybe it wasnt in dimeric form, idk (supposedly IgA is more efficient in mucosa) | 00:41 |
| nixonix | .title https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/9/21-1042_article | 00:46 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From wwwnc.cdc.gov: Predictors of Nonseroconversion after SARS-CoV-2 Infection - Volume 27, Number 9—September 2021 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC | 00:46 |
| nixonix | "26 participants remained seronegative, despite the testing of up to 3 samples per person for IgA, IgM, and IgG against multiple antigens as well as neutralizing antibodies. Thus, 36% of our cohort represented serologic nonresponders | 00:47 |
| nixonix | that is very contrary with some other findings (that almost all seroconvert, and if abs are not found, its usually a sensitivity issue). but if they are very low, maybe they offer little protection | 00:50 |
| nixonix | in that study, it correlated with symptoms and pcr cycles. mild infections with high cycles didnt necessarily have antibodies | 00:56 |
| nixonix | so when a few weeks ago i asked: what is an infection anyway is it that at least 100 cells are infected? how about 99? | 00:57 |
| nixonix | so it looks like they have found those intermediate cases. can they still infect? if not, does it matter for anything, like for damage, future protection or transmitting it to other people. telomeres stay intact? | 01:00 |
| nixonix | mostly over 30 cycles those that didnt seroconvert | 01:00 |
| nixonix | and most were under 40 yo, but some were 40-70. small sample | 01:01 |
| nixonix | use the download link that has also the supplementary material. i think those tables and graphs ind the end are missed from just article link | 01:02 |
| nixonix | come on guys, show some enthusiasm, thats a huge find | 01:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Syria: +125 cases (now 27779), +4 deaths (now 2007) since a day ago — Fr. Polynesia: +38 deaths (now 423) since 2 days ago — Argentina: +1764 cases (now 5.2 million), +71452 tests (now 22.0 million) since 22 hours ago — Botswana: +61 cases (now 153854), +2 deaths (now 2215), +15574 tests (now 1.6 million) since 3 days ago | 01:07 |
| archpc | nixonix, in layman’s terms, what does it mean | 01:13 |
| nixonix | people can catch it so light, that they dont produce antibodies. and they would show negative in pcr tests, if the threshold used isnt something like 35-40. (the chances that somebody transmits the virus when cycles are around 28 or higher - correct me if im wrong with the number - are low) | 01:15 |
| nixonix | but they might get no protection for reinfection, or the protection could be short or bad. or who knows, maybe they are still protected from severe symptoms for a while | 01:16 |
| nixonix | hey, thanks for reading. people dont read my typings very often nowdays | 01:18 |
| archpc | Ahhh I get it, thanks | 01:19 |
| archpc | Also, I’m somewhat improving, still can’t do much physical stuff without running out of breath | 01:19 |
| dTal | you survived! yayyyy | 01:24 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1432426154959458305 | 01:26 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Anthony J Leonardi, PhD, MS (@fitterhappierAJ): "Friends, how did these predictions go? Are we enjoying the politicization of cov2 control @ChristosArgyrop" | nitter | 01:27 |
| LjL | nixonix, hmm the conclusion seems similar to the conclusion reached by that German study they reference where 85% did not seroconvert | 01:27 |
| LjL | also this doesn't sound great... there is some correlation with severity, but not much... meaning, if you have low ct, you can still have all the symptoms, you just don't develop immunity. yay! | 01:28 |
| nixonix | 85%? that would mean only 1/7 would, in that small sample it was 2/3 who did | 01:28 |
| nixonix | i believed those "everybody will have antibodies, if the assay is sensitive enough" (excluding rare cases like some immunocompromised) - but that was for serological surveys, to find out for IFR and stuff | 01:29 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Predictors of Nonseroconversion after SARS-CoV-2 Infection - Volume 27, Number 9—September 2021 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/UPUNVUQF ) | 01:30 | |
| LjL | nixonix, it's in the abstract where they say that various places have found very different amounts of seroconversion | 01:30 |
| LjL | "Another study from Germany reported that 85% of confirmed infected COVID-19 contacts failed to develop antibodies (9)." | 01:30 |
| LjL | and that paper says "Overall positivity rate for SARS-CoV-2-IgG was 81.1 % in outpatients (irrespective of sampling before or after day 21 after onset of symptoms) but significantly lower in asymptomatic contact persons (15.4 %, p < 0.0001). In contact persons without symptoms the ct values of the PCR assays were significantly higher (5–7 threshold cycles) than in outpatients, and ct values were significantly negative correlated to the SARS-CoV-2-IgG ratio | 01:31 |
| LjL | , suggesting a lower viral load as a possible explanation for lower rate of seropositivity." | 01:31 |
| nixonix | if those dont seroconvert at all, and dont produce much if at all protection, they are intermediate cases. at least if they dont get organ damage. like those i wondered about, witht that 99 cell question a few weeks ago | 01:31 |
| LjL | nixonix, i think if they have symptoms the "how many cells" question is a bit moot... they are clinical cases | 01:31 |
| LjL | and your paper says "Comparing race/ethnicity, sex, and symptom severity, we failed to find a significant association with serostatus (Table), although we did observe a trend for increasing antibody positivity with increasing symptom severity (Appendix Figure 2). We also found no significant differences in seroconversion between patients reporting or not reporting various symptoms, including symptoms characteristic of COVID-19" | 01:32 |
| LjL | so yes, there was some correlation with symptom severity, but mostly if you had symptoms very diagnostic of COVID-19, that wasn't enough to mean you'd seroconvert | 01:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bulgaria: +2090 cases (now 453689), +109 deaths (now 18840) since 23 hours ago — Anguilla: +16 cases (now 217) since a day ago | 01:32 |
| nixonix | looks like most of these had some symptoms too. but anyway, 85% doesnt sound believable | 01:33 |
| LjL | nixonix, why not? they looked at contacts, which means they PCR'd people many of whom would be asymptomatic | 01:34 |
| LjL | nixonix, while in that CDC paper, "We studied 72 persons, all of whom had a previous positive RT-PCR test but were symptom-free for >3 weeks before blood was collected for testing (Table). Only 2 persons (3%) reported no symptoms, whereas 13 (18%) persons reported mild disease, 48 (67%) reported moderate disease, and 9 (12%) reported severe disease (Appendix Table 1)." | 01:34 |
| LjL | so they had almost *no* asymptomatics | 01:34 |
| nixonix | those are usually swab samples, so its viral load in upper respiratory. symptoms, they can be local there too, but often systemic, so theres infection in lots of places | 01:35 |
| nixonix | i corrected that already with "looks like most of these had some symptoms too" | 01:36 |
| LjL | nixonix, yes okay but i still don't know why you wouldn't find it believable | 01:37 |
| LjL | "Overall positivity rate for SARS-CoV-2-IgG was 81.1 % in outpatients (irrespective of sampling before or after day 21 after onset of symptoms) but significantly lower in asymptomatic contact persons (15.4 %, p < 0.0001)." | 01:37 |
| LjL | so in people who had symptoms, 81% seroconverted | 01:38 |
| LjL | which is completely compatible with the CDC paper | 01:38 |
| LjL | the rest were specifially people with no symptoms | 01:38 |
| LjL | i *hope* this kind of "positives" aren't actually counted as positive except in studies | 01:38 |
| nixonix | if that was representative sample, that would mean that only 15% would get antibodies, and protection from those for reinfection | 01:38 |
| LjL | because if they are, that would make all those people who say "PCR is meaningless" kinda right | 01:38 |
| LjL | nixonix, a representative sample *of people who always remain asymptomatic* | 01:39 |
| LjL | tell me how you know that asymptomatic people develop immunity at rates higher than 15% | 01:39 |
| LjL | because i really don't know that | 01:39 |
| LjL | i really don't think many studies have been done on that | 01:39 |
| nixonix | while there can be other forms of immune memory, that might in some cases prevent reinfection (for some time), the current consensus is, antibodies have the main role in it | 01:39 |
| nixonix | so why we dont see many reinfections? | 01:39 |
| jbwncster | People get reinfected | 01:40 |
| LjL | because in most cases we don't PCR people who are asymptomatic? | 01:40 |
| jbwncster | Some people have us covid twice | 01:40 |
| jbwncster | Have covid * | 01:40 |
| * archpc raises hand | 01:40 | |
| nixonix | all those in that german study were asymptomatic, never got symptoms, so not only presymptomatic? | 01:40 |
| LjL | people without symptoms typically only get PCR'd if they are contacts of a case, and even then only in some countries (like Germany), and even then only in times when the system isn't overloaded | 01:40 |
| LjL | nixonix, i don't know how to spell it out. yes. | 01:40 |
| LjL | not "all" | 01:40 |
| LjL | the ones where 15% seroconverted | 01:41 |
| LjL | you said we don't read what you write | 01:41 |
| LjL | but please read too | 01:41 |
| LjL | "Overall positivity rate for SARS-CoV-2-IgG was 81.1 % in outpatients (irrespective of sampling before or after day 21 after onset of symptoms) but significantly lower in asymptomatic contact persons (15.4 %, p < 0.0001)." | 01:41 |
| LjL | so outpatients (people with symptoms that presented to the clinic) seroconverted at 81.1% rate | 01:41 |
| nixonix | i dont understand, ill look at it, maybe in a minute or tomorrow | 01:41 |
| LjL | asymptomatic contact persons were simply PCR'd because they were contact persons | 01:41 |
| jbwncster | And people keep saying that children hardly get covid | 01:41 |
| jbwncster | That’s wrong | 01:41 |
| nixonix | thats why i wrote "if that was", as a conditional. i know they arent, but thats miles away from the situation that there are very few reinfections | 01:43 |
| nixonix | identified reinfections | 01:43 |
| LjL | i don't think that's the situation | 01:44 |
| nixonix | if those close contacts were mostly children, that might explain | 01:44 |
| LjL | how do you identify a reinfection in someone in which you never identified an infection in the first place? | 01:44 |
| LjL | "26 persons had no clinical symptoms but were PCR-positive due to contact with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients." ← this is the sample where they found 15% seroconversion | 01:44 |
| LjL | they would never have been tested if they hadn't been contacts of positives | 01:44 |
| nixonix | well, in that (biased, supposedly) israeli study there were over 20 times less reinfections than vaccine breakthroughs for not-old, and over 10 times for old, if i recall | 01:45 |
| LjL | "Out of the remaining 137 patients, 111 patients had clinically and PCR−COnfirmed, ambulatory treated SARS−COV-2 infection and fulfilled the clinical diagnostic criteria of the Robert-Koch-Institut (www.rki.de). All had recovered at the time point of blood collection. 26 persons had no clinical symptoms but were PCR-positive due to contact with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients." | 01:45 |
| LjL | nixonix, and they had specifically tested asymptomatic people? what was the reinfection rate in people who tested positive but were asymptomatic? | 01:45 |
| nixonix | ill be back in a few mins... | 01:45 |
| LjL | if they didn't test that or didn't report that, then how can that be compared to this study? | 01:45 |
| * archpc is enjoying reading the intelligent conversation | 01:48 | |
| archpc | (Not sarcasm) | 01:48 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: SARS-CoV-2-IgG response is different in COVID-19 outpatients and asymptomatic contact persons ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/4UHS25M6 ) | 01:50 | |
| nixonix | okay, that german study... did you have two separate studies you talked about, besides that CDC that i linked? german and some other | 02:00 |
| LjL | no | 02:01 |
| LjL | only that one | 02:01 |
| nixonix | .title https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32707511/ | 02:02 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: SARS-CoV-2-IgG response is different in COVID-19 outpatients and asymptomatic contact persons - PubMed | 02:02 |
| nixonix | that israeli study, like i wrote, its supposedly biased. but while it may affect the results somewhat or even quite a bit, the thing that asymptomatic infections never get tested should affect both groups, reinfections and breakthroughs | 02:03 |
| nixonix | and the difference was huge | 02:04 |
| LjL | i don't understand. asymptomatic infections are going to be a small group (not necessarily because they *really are* a small group, but because only very few of them ever get tested). so how would that show up in the Israeli study unless they gave *separate figures* for asymptomatic infections? | 02:05 |
| nixonix | then that german study, if they are sure that they never got any symptoms at all, so nobody wasnt just presymptomatic, then those were that type of intermediate cases, that kinda had infection, kinda didnt (depending what really happened in their body) | 02:06 |
| LjL | also, again, they cranked up the ct threshold in that German study (and presumably the CDC thing too) to realize that people with very low viral load were the ones with low immunity. in a "normal" PCR, you'd just test negative. | 02:06 |
| nixonix | other studies have estimated, with old variants, share of asymptomatic between 20-80%. while probably not accurate, none of them had very small share | 02:07 |
| nixonix | (those larger percentages were probably studies, where they didnt check if they got some symptoms later, or then they didnt really ask them later, can you now remember if you got some symptoms after all) | 02:08 |
| nixonix | some people have lied in those surveys, because they have been in bars and stuff, while symptomatic. so the lower end is more likely, imo | 02:08 |
| LjL | it may not be a small share, *but only a small share gets PCR tested* | 02:08 |
| nixonix | meaning, its likely the share of asymptomatic isnt minimal, but probably at least something like 20% | 02:09 |
| nixonix | or if you really interview they closely, maybe less. or in those "normal" studies, excluding possibly these two, german and cdc one | 02:10 |
| nixonix | close contacts that stayed asymptomatic in that german study, what share stayed asymptomatic? | 02:11 |
| nixonix | sorry, repasted the cdc link, i meant this one: | 02:12 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386653220302845?via%3Dihub | 02:12 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.sciencedirect.com: SARS-CoV-2-IgG response is different in COVID-19 outpatients and asymptomatic contact persons - ScienceDirect | 02:12 |
| nixonix | damn its the same. where is that german link... | 02:12 |
| LjL | that is the german link | 02:12 |
| nixonix | no, they were both right studies (: | 02:13 |
| LjL | i think it's pretty obvious that all 26 stayed asymptomatic, since this was a followup study too, but they never say "they always ALWAYS stayed asymptomatic we promise!" maybe so you can keep asking that question if you want | 02:13 |
| LjL | but, it's 26 people, which are contrasted to "outpatients" | 02:13 |
| LjL | outpatients are the people who get seen for symptoms | 02:13 |
| LjL | the others... if they had symptoms, they were so mild they thought nothing of them | 02:13 |
| nixonix | what was the share pcr positive asymptomatic_contacts/symptomatic_contacts? | 02:14 |
| archpc | I got tested today, I’m gonna see if it’s negative, I doubt it | 02:14 |
| nixonix | that german study is very old (in context of this epidemic). and i remember there were very few even semi-decent serological surveys 2020 | 02:16 |
| nixonix | so id like some confirmation. maybe that cdc one is then, but its a bit different | 02:16 |
| nixonix | but that cdc study, if we were to believe that 1/3 of _symptomatic_ infections would never produce antibodies, then its likely they dont have much protection for reinfection, if any | 02:19 |
| nixonix | and the argument, that reinfections seem to be rare (at least among symptomatic cases), has quite a bit evidence | 02:20 |
| LjL | nixonix, but again, someone with a PCR that's only positive when the cycle threshold is made *very high* is usually counted as a negative. so if they get infected "again", it's not usually counted as a re-infection. it only is in studies like this | 02:21 |
| LjL | if i have symptoms, i get a PCR, but it's below the standard threshold, it'll say "negative" | 02:21 |
| LjL | it won't say "positive but only with very high threshold, but since you have symptoms, you will be a case anyway" | 02:21 |
| nixonix | for asymptomatic, its possible that their reinfections are rarely found. but really we are comparing apples and oranges, using that german study result as an argument that it supports that cdc study findings | 02:21 |
| LjL | i'm not using it as such an argument | 02:22 |
| LjL | the only way i likened the two studies was that in both cases, they found that seroconversion correlated with high ct thresholds | 02:22 |
| LjL | both found that | 02:22 |
| nixonix | "nixonix, hmm the conclusion seems similar to the conclusion reached by that German study they reference where 85% did not seroconvert" | 02:23 |
| nixonix | im not arguing, just saying they are apples and oranges | 02:23 |
| LjL | i was just describing which study that was | 02:23 |
| nixonix | and thanks for telling about that | 02:23 |
| LjL | and that's how it's described in the CDC paper | 02:23 |
| LjL | i wasn't saying that was the similarity | 02:23 |
| LjL | but then you immediately went THAT SOUNDS UNLIKELY so we got all sidetracked on that | 02:24 |
| LjL | but if you see what i wrote just after that | 02:24 |
| LjL | <LjL> also this doesn't sound great... there is some correlation with severity, but not much... meaning, if you have low ct, you can still have all the symptoms, you just don't develop immunity. yay! | 02:24 |
| nixonix | ok. i have to read those tomorrow | 02:24 |
| LjL | this is about low ct = maybe still symptoms but also = no immunity | 02:24 |
| LjL | that was my point, and the way they are similar | 02:24 |
| nixonix | since those were contacts of found cases (hospitalized?), in the german study, they apparently had symptoms, and if those asymptomatic contacts lived in the same household, its almost certain they usually got very high viral doses | 02:25 |
| nixonix | so its a big difference, if those 26 cases were out of 1000 or 50. thats why im interested of the share | 02:26 |
| LjL | it is not stated how many "symptomatic contacts" there were. presumably those were just counted as outpatients and not as contacts. | 02:26 |
| nixonix | if those are rare (like out of 1000), it doesnt change much (while i dont believe ab survey findings generally, esp 2020) | 02:27 |
| LjL | anyway the german study looked at 137 people, and the CDC thing looked at 72 people. i'd say neither of those is a very big sample. | 02:27 |
| nixonix | if they were common, like out of 50. then i think extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. confirming from other well made studies | 02:27 |
| LjL | if you just don't believe them to begin with, i don't know why we're even talking about it | 02:28 |
| LjL | the study says they used a validated ELISA and it's described in the appendix | 02:28 |
| LjL | i'm not going to try to figure out whether that's good enough for me | 02:28 |
| nixonix | cohort of SARS-CoV-2-PCR-confirmed outpatients and asymptomatic contact persons including 137 serum samples from PCR-confirmed outpatients (n = 111) and asymptomatic but PCR-positive contact persons (n = 26) | 02:29 |
| nixonix | so how about symptomatic close contacts, did they say that? | 02:29 |
| nixonix | i didnt find with a quick look. if close contacts that show pcr positive but are asymptomatic anyway (while living in the same household, getting probably very high viral doses for days), are rare special cases, then the results of studying them might look very strange | 02:33 |
| nixonix | ill look at it closer tomorrow, so lets see | 02:33 |
| nixonix | that cdc one is strange anyway, and its big if true, imo | 02:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +4103 cases (now 1.5 million), +3 deaths (now 26930) since 22 hours ago — Guinea: +191 cases (now 29400), +9 deaths (now 335) since 3 days ago — France: +9686 cases (now 6.8 million), +70 deaths (now 114402) since 22 hours ago — United Kingdom: +21309 cases (now 6.8 million), +40 deaths (now 132623) since 22 hours ago | 02:34 |
| LjL | <nixonix> so how about symptomatic close contacts, did they say that? ← aaaaaaah | 02:35 |
| LjL | <LjL> it is not stated how many "symptomatic contacts" there were. presumably those were just counted as outpatients and not as contacts. | 02:36 |
| nixonix | yeah, but did they find rare special cases? or something that is common? or something in between? | 02:36 |
| nixonix | the study on cdc site, since its not by cdc, ill call it Liu et al.: | 02:37 |
| nixonix | "For example, a multicenter study from Israel reported that 5% of participants re-mained seronegative despite a positive test result on a nasal swab specimen (6). In contrast, a seropreva-lence study from New York found that 20% of per-sons with a positive RT-PCR test result did not sero-convert (8) | 02:37 |
| nixonix | those can well be biased if all are not tested (from what group, and at what moment?), but also results can be biased because of that sensitivity issue. but if considering only if they have protection or not, maybe its not a big problem | 02:38 |
| nixonix | anyways, that Liu et al. isnt on line of those results (small sample though, and can be biased. it seems they just recruited some people, not much about limitations mentioned, so if there could be some bias) | 02:45 |
| nixonix | but if that result is correct, and that would be representative, then that would mean that almost third of symptomatic infections wouldnt produce antibodies, and wasnt likely protected from reinfection... symptomatic | 02:47 |
| nixonix | when reinfections, at least among symptomatic persons, seem to be rare. so the result is extraordinary | 02:48 |
| nixonix | if something looks very strange, it either is huge, or then its not true, but something is wrong | 02:49 |
| nixonix | lets see if its in headlines tomorrow... | 02:50 |
| gry | nixonix: link? | 02:52 |
| nixonix | .title https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/9/21-1042_article | 02:52 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From wwwnc.cdc.gov: Predictors of Nonseroconversion after SARS-CoV-2 Infection - Volume 27, Number 9—September 2021 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC | 02:52 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00575-4/fulltext - just something i found, didnt read, too long, not arguing about findings right now, maybe next time... | 02:55 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.thelancet.com: Assessment of protection against reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 among 4 million PCR-tested individuals in Denmark in 2020: a population-level observational study - The Lancet | 02:55 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.26.21259239v1.full - same. way too long | 02:56 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medrxiv.org: Pre-existing polymerase-specific T cells expand in abortive seronegative SARS-CoV-2 infection | medRxiv | 02:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for French Guiana: +400 cases (now 34775), +2 deaths (now 217), +5279 tests (now 361558) since 3 days ago — Paraguay: +64 cases (now 458398), +2038 tests (now 1.8 million) since 22 hours ago | 03:00 |
| nixonix | quick look on the danish reinfection study: protection from reinfection only a bit over 80% for <65yo, and way less for >65. but small sample for those over 65 | 03:05 |
| nixonix | in denmark they test a lot, so they are likely to find much more asymptomatic cases than in other countries | 03:05 |
| nixonix | the protection was almost the same for >7 months than those between 3 and 6 months, in that study | 03:06 |
| nixonix | so while protection seems to last well, from natural infection according to the danish study, there was quite a bit reinfections. but: it looks like those werent confirmed with sequencing... | 03:07 |
| nixonix | while the cases over 7 months, probably true reinfections mostly | 03:08 |
| LjL | <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Huge decrease in organ transplants as Covid took hold across world → https://is.gd/wUZhsI | 03:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A judge asked a mother if she got the coronavirus vaccine. She said no, and he revoked custody of her son. → https://is.gd/8pwRCV | 03:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Dem. Rep. Congo: +355 cases (now 54863), +2 deaths (now 1059) since 3 days ago | 04:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: New Zealand is achieving containment of its Delta "wave" @minhealthnz with 49 cases todayhttps://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/49-additional-community-cases-covid-19-1-new-case-managed-isolation-facility-over-76000-vaccinesAn amazing graph of their pandemic confirmed and probable cases over >18 months [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/minAdF | 04:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: B.C. feed stores see increased demand for livestock dewormer falsely touted as COVID-19 treatment → https://is.gd/SELrVe | 04:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Sri Lanka: +9912 cases (now 436081), +216 deaths (now 8991) since a day ago — Costa Rica: +5361 cases (now 461145), +61 deaths (now 5492) since 3 days ago — Egypt: +263 cases (now 288162), +6 deaths (now 16727) since a day ago — Belize: +208 cases (now 16220), +3 deaths (now 359) since 3 days ago | 04:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: As Alberta, Canada enters the 4th Covid wave, the provincial government has disappeared from the public, doctors determined that the public needs guidance and has started providing Covid updates in the absence of leadership → https://is.gd/UD4y0c | 04:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New COVID variant C.1.2 may be more infectious and evade vaccine protection, shows study → https://is.gd/qIJrtq | 06:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Pakistan: +3838 cases (now 1.2 million), +118 deaths (now 25788), +52112 tests (now 17.8 million) since 22 hours ago | 06:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australian town shoots rescue dogs to death citing COVID-19 concerns → https://is.gd/6dVJkL | 07:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +4901 cases (now 1.2 million), +14 deaths (now 25374), +113619 tests (now 18.6 million) since 3 days ago | 07:08 |
| Sky_Net | hello guys i feel symptoms( | 07:29 |
| zutt | go get tested | 07:29 |
| twomoon | what symptoms? | 07:29 |
| archpc | F | 07:29 |
| Sky_Net | okay that would be interesting if i have virus, because i've been vaccinated | 07:30 |
| zutt | vaccination doesn't make you immune to covid-19, especially not with the variants such as delta variant that is spreading across the globe | 07:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Georgia, United States: +23135 cases (now 1.4 million), +88 deaths (now 22641) since 2 days ago — Tennessee, United States: +20545 cases (now 1.0 million), +84 deaths (now 13422) since 2 days ago — North Carolina, United States: +19007 cases (now 1.2 million), +93 deaths (now 14412) since 2 days ago [... want %more?] | 07:33 |
| zutt | however, as you have been vaccinated, the symptoms should be quite "minor" and require no hospitalization! | 07:33 |
| zutt | go get tested and guarantine yourself until you have confirmation :) | 07:34 |
| archpc | I see North Carolina going for gold here | 07:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Sustained and effective response to Janssen COVID-19 vaccine Is enhanced by delayed booster → https://is.gd/q83oi0 | 08:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Honduras: +3359 cases (now 338757), +18 deaths (now 8850), +8324 tests (now 976655) since 3 days ago | 08:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: New data confirm Covid-19 vaccines still provide strong protection → https://is.gd/TwRptU | 08:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +30941 cases (now 32.8 million), +177 deaths (now 438174) since 15 hours ago — Taiwan: +4 cases (now 15995), +1 deaths (now 835), +50389 tests (now 5.0 million) since 22 hours ago | 09:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | August 31, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/iW5OPv | 09:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Grenada: +104 cases (now 461), +1 deaths (now 2) since a day ago — Czechia: +54 cases (now 1.7 million), +84968 tests (now 35.9 million) since 23 hours ago | 09:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Which children are being vaccinated and why?: Millions of children, including 16 and 17 year olds, are now being offered a Covid vaccine in the UK. → https://is.gd/iJlbhj | 10:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mizoram, India: +1157 cases (now 59119), +1 deaths (now 214) since a day ago — Israel: +10516 cases (now 1.1 million), +145868 tests (now 19.3 million) since 23 hours ago — Uttarakhand, India: +38 cases (now 342948), +1 deaths (now 7381) since a day ago | 10:39 |
| de-facto | archpc, how are you doing there? | 11:09 |
| archpc | I’m feeling better, still feel like I’ve been chain smoking lmaoo | 11:15 |
| de-facto | nice to hear you are on the recovery path | 11:16 |
| de-facto | saturation going up with time? | 11:16 |
| archpc | It’s 90 as of, yesterday | 11:17 |
| de-facto | oh very nice! | 11:17 |
| de-facto | yeah thats approaching normal again, great | 11:18 |
| de-facto | still low but on the right track | 11:19 |
| archpc | Yeah | 11:19 |
| de-facto | so continuing what you did seems to work if you making progress towards recovery | 11:21 |
| gry | what did you do | 11:22 |
| archpc | lay in bed | 11:22 |
| gry | nice | 11:25 |
| gry | is it post vaccinating, or not? | 11:25 |
| archpc | I was vaccinated some time ago | 11:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Russia: +36138 cases (now 6.9 million), +2124 deaths (now 183224), +200000 tests (now 178.7 million) since 22 hours ago — Japan: +13478 cases (now 1.5 million), +37 deaths (now 15994), +160071 tests (now 21.8 million) since 8 hours ago — Tunisia: +1282 cases (now 664034), +21 deaths (now 23451), +7840 tests (now 2.6 million) since 17 hours ago [... want %more?] | 11:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Why is Northern Ireland’s death rate so high?: Medical experts in Northern Ireland are striving to pinpoint why the country has such a high death rate from covid-19, as its current seven day death rate per 100 000 people is more than twice as... → https://is.gd/HkgMtU | 11:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Austria: +1229 cases (now 688305), +331116 tests (now 76.6 million) since 23 hours ago — Faroe Is.: +1 cases (now 1001), +1000 tests (now 409000) since a day ago | 12:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from ScienceNews: These charts show that COVID-19 vaccines are doing their job: COVID-19 shots may not always prevent infections, but for now, they are keeping the vast majority of vaccinated people out of the hospital. → https://is.gd/eLoPYF | 12:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Monoclonal antibody treatment combo cuts hospitalisation among high-risk Covid patients: Study → https://is.gd/8znn1y | 12:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +9234 cases (now 4.0 million), +116 deaths (now 92515), +202444 vaccines (now 54.2 million) since 23 hours ago — Slovenia: +541 cases (now 267198), +1 deaths (now 4450), +2750 vaccines (now 989393) since 23 hours ago — Latvia: +237 cases (now 142637), +5 deaths (now 2578), +3266 vaccines (now 856017) since a day ago [... want %more?] | 12:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Biden tries to move past Afghanistan fiasco: The US president and his Democratic allies are looking to return their focus to their legislative agenda and the COVID-19 pandemic. → https://is.gd/kmBgQi | 12:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Johnson & Johnson’s HIV vaccine fails first efficacy trial: In a study in southern Africa which enrolled 2,600 women, participants who received J&J's vaccine were 25% less likely to become infected with HIV compared to the placebo group. The… → https://is.gd/BxFFyr | 12:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from Johnson&Johnson: Johnson & Johnson and Global Partners Announce Results from Phase 2b Imbokodo HIV Vaccine Clinical Trial in Young Women in Sub-Saharan Africa: Investigational vaccine candidate did not provide sufficient protection against HIV infection No vaccine-related safety signals identified J&J HIV vaccine program continues with global [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Zvx1rX | 13:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Croatia: +668 cases (now 373998), +3 deaths (now 8334), +9610 tests (now 2.5 million) since a day ago — Slovakia: +132 cases (now 394923), +6779 tests (now 3.3 million) since a day ago — Malta: +48 cases (now 36171), +1 deaths (now 441), +3117 tests (now 1.2 million) since 23 hours ago — Brunei: +1 deaths (now 9), +5197 tests (now 232227) since a day ago | 13:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mormon vaccine push ratchets up, dividing faith’s members → https://is.gd/1aqRag | 13:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Thailand’s elderly lag behind in Covid vaccination drive, data show → https://is.gd/rAclWg | 13:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +1523 cases (now 762647), +20 deaths (now 10750), +9117 tests (now 3.9 million) since a day ago — Zambia: +182 cases (now 206327), +3 deaths (now 3602), +7154 tests (now 2.3 million) since a day ago | 14:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Moderna Creates Twice as Many Antibodies as Pfizer, Study Shows → https://is.gd/FI4jZy | 14:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Sweden: +3400 cases (now 1.1 million) since 3 days ago — Palestine: +2466 cases (now 342282), +5 deaths (now 3680) since 22 hours ago — Romania: +1313 cases (now 1.1 million), +31 deaths (now 34570), +45820 tests (now 11.5 million) since a day ago — UAE: +996 cases (now 718370), +2 deaths (now 2041), +329146 tests (now 74.8 million) since a day ago | 15:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: C.1.2 Variant, Most Mutated COVID Strain So Far, Detected in Nine Countries → https://is.gd/gr7ZEU | 15:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US adds Canada to its ‘do not travel’ advisory list amid Covid-19 → https://is.gd/KyauMt | 15:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +6432 cases (now 4.0 million) since 22 hours ago | 15:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Vaccinate to reduce variants: NICD → https://is.gd/WrGkys | 15:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Poliziotto non vaccinato muore a 58 anni di Covid. L’ex compagna: “Diceva di essere più forte del virus. Ha sottovalutato il pericolo” → https://is.gd/5qn9rC | 15:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Tired of waiting for vaccines, PAHO proposes making its own → https://is.gd/o84hsF | 16:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Serbia: +2981 cases (now 762933), +14 deaths (now 7292), +15529 tests (now 5.0 million) since 23 hours ago | 16:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Report: Autistic Individuals Have Increased Risk of COVID-19 → https://is.gd/NzkctG | 16:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Just published @ScienceMagazine The importance of rapid, cross-reactive immunity for prior Covid and vaccine effect"Our results highlight the functional contribution of pre-existing spike-cross-reactive T cells in SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abh1823 → https://is.gd/3gKAcy | 16:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Azerbaijan: +3788 cases (now 424891), +44 deaths (now 5636), +19693 tests (now 4.5 million) since 23 hours ago — Bangladesh: +3357 cases (now 1.5 million), +86 deaths (now 26195) since 23 hours ago — Portugal: +1908 cases (now 1.0 million), +13 deaths (now 17743), +52329 tests (now 17.0 million) since a day ago | 16:40 |
| lastshell | this is BS https://youtu.be/d3r8lIYl90M how come cdc dont track this | 17:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Low-cost Sensor System for COVID-19 Patient Monitoring: Validation of MediByte VTS → https://is.gd/R2WAWl | 17:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from LitCovid: (news): Endothelial Dysfunction, Inflammation, and Oxidative Stress in COVID-19-Mechanisms and Therapeutic Targets. → https://is.gd/vRopQy | 17:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Myanmar: +3399 cases (now 399282), +39 deaths (now 15389), +81786 tests (now 3.6 million) since 22 hours ago — Qatar: +173 cases (now 232744), +6669 tests (now 2.5 million) since 21 hours ago | 17:30 |
| lastshell | https://news.yahoo.com/even-delta-variant-ability-covid-045427328.html | 17:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Safety of mRNA vaccination in over 400 "highly allergic" individuals, promoted with the use of a simple algorithmhttps://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2783626 @JAMANetworkOpen → https://is.gd/JgAiQJ | 18:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Norway: +869 cases (now 159258) since 14 hours ago — Guam: +206 cases (now 10559), +4 deaths (now 149) since 23 hours ago — Italy: +5492 cases (now 4.5 million), +307643 tests (now 84.0 million) since 21 hours ago — Guernsey: +56 cases (now 1293) since 4 days ago | 18:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Johnson & Johnson HIV Vaccine Reports Low Efficacy in African Women Trial: New Imbokodo findings show a 4-dose regimen was only about 25% effective in preventing HIV in at-risk women, hindering progress for the vaccine. → https://is.gd/GCAq9A | 18:47 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +29356 cases (now 6.8 million), +3142315 tests (now 269.9 million) since 16 hours ago — Moldova: +322 cases (now 267526), +4 deaths (now 6401), +4146 tests (now 1.6 million) since a day ago | 19:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: Excellent thread - a wide-ranging roundup of what we’re seeing with vaccine efficacy over time. → https://is.gd/Q8P7VZ | 19:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: This same pattern triplicated, quadruplicated, again and again.Hybrid immunity, here against in people with autoimmune diseasehttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.26.21258418v1[Confirmed prior covid should be considered as = 1 dose of vaccine] → https://is.gd/ZNs2uG | 19:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Albania: +1054 cases (now 146387), +3 deaths (now 2498), +7256 tests (now 1.1 million) since 21 hours ago — Spain: +7767 cases (now 4.9 million), +194 deaths (now 84340) since 20 hours ago — Jamaica: +729 cases (now 68131), +8 deaths (now 1518), +1600 tests (now 548196) since 23 hours ago | 19:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: High Viral Load in Lungs Drives Fatal COVID-19: New research shows a high amount of coronavirus in the lungs is a major contributor to death in COVID-19 patients. → https://is.gd/gH2U2K | 19:41 |
| `St0ner | https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/30/1032520934/immunity-to-covid-19-could-last-longer-than-youd-think | 19:44 |
| `St0ner | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-31/moderna-jab-spurs-double-pfizer-covid-antibody-levels-in-study | 19:45 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Djibouti: +3 cases (now 11750), +354 tests (now 206601) since a day ago | 19:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: As Delta Surges, Contact Tracing Re-Takes COVID Center Stage: It's also time, some experts say, to do contact tracing smarter. That means merging it with testing and vaccination efforts. → https://is.gd/A4rGmU | 20:04 |
| p0indexter | what a brilliant idea | 20:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Turkey: +20336 cases (now 6.4 million), +297167 tests (now 76.4 million) since 23 hours ago — South Africa: +7084 cases (now 2.8 million), +431 deaths (now 82261), +49168 tests (now 16.5 million) since 23 hours ago — France: +109 deaths (now 114476) since 23 hours ago | 20:36 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1428785675357229056 | 20:41 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Shane Crotty (@profshanecrotty): "That suggests modest to moderate reduction in vaccine efficacy against Delta compared to Alpha, in terms of total infections (Pfizer ~6% and ~10%. AZ ~8% and ~16%. [...] | 20:41 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1432726171221778435 | 20:42 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Shane Crotty (@profshanecrotty): "Just a friendly reminder that this study also addressed natural immunity compared to vaccine immunity. Vaccine immunity did somewhat better than natural immunity, [...] | 20:42 |
| lastshell | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhRb5hnTseU Dr. John Campbell says that everyone is going to be infected there is no way to stop the spread | 20:45 |
| lastshell | the best thing is get vaccinated and check your vitamin d levels | 20:45 |
| LjL | nixonix, do you think that study is more reliable than the one that says natural > vaccine? | 20:49 |
| LjL | but it's apparently the same study that "suggests modest to moderate reduction in vaccine efficacy against Delta compared to Alpha, in terms of total infections (Pfizer ~6% and ~10%. AZ ~8% and ~16%. Two studies above.) Really quite encouraging for the RNA vaccine." | 20:50 |
| LjL | that seems... not so true now, about infections? | 20:50 |
| LjL | i need a better way to get RSS from Twitter. using any Nitter instance results in... like, now we get tweets from Eric Topol, but last time we got one from Shane Crotty was 21 August. so i think the instance gets rate limited right after my bot polls the first account (presumably Topol) | 20:53 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-no-infection-parties | 20:53 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix, the URL could not be loaded | 20:53 |
| nixonix | exactly! | 20:53 |
| nixonix | try to google that link | 20:53 |
| nixonix | ljl, i posted some critic on that study a few days ago already | 20:54 |
| LjL | wow | 20:54 |
| LjL | for me the url that shows up is from sciencemag, not science, but anyway it redirects there and 404s | 20:54 |
| LjL | nixonix, but sciencemag is redesigning their website (i know because Derek Lowe said he's taking a break from his blog while they move it over) so maybe it's just something technical? | 20:55 |
| nixonix | maybe, lets see. i didnt find anything goolging it and the word "retract" | 20:56 |
| nixonix | another science.org links work for me, though | 20:56 |
| LjL | https://twitter.com/BrainstormBot/status/1432779512966701056 | 20:57 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/DGBassani/status/1431390188924768269 | 21:01 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Diego Bassani, PhD 🏠😷💉 (@DGBassani): "Although some are trying to find biological plausibility in the findings from the pre-print below, I think some thought should be given to the many biases that [...] | 21:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Pandemic Brought Big Drop in Breast Cancer Screenings: New research shows many parts of the U.S. saw a significant drop in breast cancer screening of older low-income women during the COVID-19 pandemic. → https://is.gd/HsoXfC | 21:08 |
| LjL | nixonix, someone replied to me that the article is here now https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital | 21:09 |
| LjL | maybe there were told they needed more emphasis on the vaccine still being important? | 21:10 |
| nixonix | they seem to have updated it | 21:10 |
| LjL | ouch even https://web.archive.org/web/20210831152352/https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-no-infection-parties is just a redirect | 21:10 |
| nixonix | maybe i should grep the differencies | 21:11 |
| nixonix | i mean diff | 21:11 |
| LjL | Google has the older copy cached | 21:11 |
| LjL | https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:4Uykwk7alSQJ:https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-no-infection-parties+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=it&client=firefox-b-d | 21:11 |
| nixonix | it also has that 28th update not in the end | 21:15 |
| nixonix | note | 21:15 |
| nixonix | https://archive.is/uKsCC | 21:21 |
| nixonix | damn, it has that note too, i somehow just missed it | 21:22 |
| nixonix | anyway, it has critique | 21:24 |
| nixonix | all the normal media arctivles ive seen, just adopted the view that natural immunity is much stronger | 21:25 |
| nixonix | while i think i just read finnish articles on that | 21:26 |
| nixonix | so whats the best there are out on natural immunity lasting vs delta reinfection? | 21:27 |
| LjL | all i know... too many cases in Israel, too many deaths, even though they're doing these 3rd shots fast. | 21:27 |
| nixonix | i just looked offloop, and it looks like many countries in western europe, israel and usa show signs of plateauing or peaking (while schools only have started in some places, scotland, scandinavia, some us regions) | 21:28 |
| nixonix | so if they turn down, school reopenings might slow it or turn up again. and kids become the main drivers | 21:29 |
| nixonix | turn off the smoothing, esp if its not thursday-saturday, and compare the last few days to the days week before | 21:30 |
| LjL | and maybe the season will also make it worse, although i'm not big on believing in seasonality of this thing | 21:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Pandemic Brought Big Drop in Breast Cancer Screenings: New research shows many parts of the U.S. saw a significant drop in breast cancer screening of older low-income women during the COVID-19 pandemic. → https://is.gd/HsoXfC | 21:30 |
| nixonix | yeah, we have summer helping. but vaccine coverages will increase (while protection waning for the first vaccinated) | 21:31 |
| nixonix | there is seasonality for sure. but if it was like 50% help in middle of summer, and the R_0 without any measures or ppl acting carefully, would be something like 7 with delta, it would still be 3.5 | 21:32 |
| nixonix | anyone remembers if i have pasted link, possibly a tweet, on common cold hcov seasonality? a graph showing 4 hcovs | 21:34 |
| nixonix | heres something, but the one i meant had all 4: | 21:36 |
| nixonix | https://www.science.org/cms/10.1126/science.abb5793/asset/bfd5a647-3b13-4793-a6e5-8cdfb02be282/assets/graphic/368_860_f2.jpeg | 21:36 |
| LjL | some pretty big differences in vaccination rates now in western EU countries https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Vaccine+doses&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=ITA~DEU~ESP~FRA~FIN~BEL~NLD~PRT~IRL~SWE~NOR~DNK | 21:38 |
| nixonix | with flu its possibly more than with sars2. takes it easily below 1 anyway | 21:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Morocco: +4899 cases (now 860948), +109 deaths (now 12649), +40788 tests (now 9.0 million) since a day ago — Mali: +16 cases (now 14889), +1116 tests (now 382712) since a day ago — Chad: +1 cases (now 4992), +372 tests (now 139352) since a day ago | 21:38 |
| nixonix | thats not the case with even the old 614g. 50-60% more from 117, then perhaps 75% more from delta | 21:39 |
| LjL | nixonix, Libera/##covid-19/2021-07-04.log:[01:04:36] <nixonix> hcov seasonality: https://smw.ch/journalimage/780/780/ratio/view/article/ezm_smw/en/smw.2020.20224/c1ef84064e77736bc19423fd99ab1bc2abc978f9/w20224_f1_conv.jpg/rsrc/ji | 21:40 |
| LjL | but that URL doesn't work now | 21:40 |
| LjL | if i leave the .jpg part and remove the parts after, it sends me to an article | 21:41 |
| nixonix | yeah, i think the source of that graph from 4 hcovs was swiss too | 21:41 |
| nixonix | ah, i thought you found some other article, a min... | 21:42 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abb5793?versioned=true | 21:42 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.science.org: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period | 21:42 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-37481-y | 21:45 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nature.com: Association between viral seasonality and meteorological factors | Scientific Reports | 21:45 |
| nixonix | rhino and enterovirus epidemic started in finland. most schools reopened 10th aug i think | 21:48 |
| nixonix | those other viruses in nature link dont seem to have strong seasonality, unlike hcovs | 21:54 |
| nixonix | but in that science article, hku1 wave is much stronger every other year. yet in the article they say with both the immunity seems to wane in a year (other studies say the same, its less than year for all i think, for most ppl) | 21:56 |
| nixonix | but in that article they say oc43 induces stronger cross-immunity against hku1 than vice versa, so that every other year might be because of that oc43 immunity affecting stronger vs hku1 | 21:56 |
| nixonix | both very seasonal anyway (was it cold or humidity or both, or ppls behavior, the condition of their mucosa or whatever the reasons) | 21:57 |
| nixonix | they could compare countries on different latitudes, if theres a trend that in north the summer effect stops earlier or not. they should adjust for travelling and measures etc carefully | 21:59 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1318365598913581056 not the graph that is still missing, but about hcov seasonality | 22:05 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Prof Francois Balloux (@BallouxFrancois): "'Common cold' HCoVs are extremely seasonal with a peak in winter/spring depending on the species. They also tend to be biannual, with a more marked epidemic [...] | 22:05 |
| zutt | nixonix: there's no enterovirus epidemic in Finland, never had been - the numbers are way too small (less than 200 annually) to call it anything but singular cases. Also, the numbers are too small to call the every second year theory anything but a statistical error. | 22:05 |
| zutt | and rhinovirus strains are seasonal flus here, reported cases are approximately one thousand annually | 22:05 |
| nixonix | you have source for that? | 22:05 |
| zutt | yes | 22:05 |
| zutt | https://thl.fi/fi/web/infektiotaudit-ja-rokotukset/taudit-ja-torjunta/taudit-ja-taudinaiheuttajat-a-o/rinovirus | 22:06 |
| zutt | https://thl.fi/fi/web/infektiotaudit-ja-rokotukset/taudit-ja-torjunta/taudit-ja-taudinaiheuttajat-a-o/rinovirus/rinoviruksen-esiintyvyys-suomessa | 22:06 |
| nixonix | IL today: "Kalevan mukaan lasten keskuudessa kiertää nyt erityisesti rinovirusta ja enterovirusta." | 22:06 |
| zutt | I'm a Finnish person, these don't even get to the clickbait news due to them being so irrelevant | 22:06 |
| nixonix | nothing about enterovirus on the link | 22:07 |
| zutt | ah wrong link | 22:07 |
| zutt | https://thl.fi/fi/web/infektiotaudit-ja-rokotukset/taudit-ja-torjunta/taudit-ja-taudinaiheuttajat-a-o/enterovirus/enteroviruksen-esiintyvyys-suomessa | 22:08 |
| zutt | calling these epidemic is silly, the numbers really are too small | 22:09 |
| nixonix | their source is Kaleva's article behind paywall, and in it inf dis doctor from oulu: https://www.kaleva.fi/flunssaoireita-aiheuttavat-virukset-aiheuttavat-ou/3916329 | 22:10 |
| twomoon | omg Campbell's youtube video today =( | 22:10 |
| twomoon | he says scientists are embracing the idea that everyone is gonna get the virus because it is too damn transmissible | 22:10 |
| nixonix | didnt called that epidemic, what i can see, but large numbers apparently, according to him | 22:11 |
| nixonix | maybe they just dont know what viruses are around usually since testing them isnt high priority (and used to be laborious). they have some panels now, or they were planning to buy them | 22:11 |
| zutt | maybe.., every year there's a new flu going on with kids | 22:13 |
| zutt | nothing new | 22:13 |
| twomoon | oh god Campbell's video is depressing | 22:15 |
| twomoon | give me a shoulder to cry on | 22:15 |
| twomoon | so basically the virus will become endemic and everyone accepts that now | 22:15 |
| twomoon | the problem is that it can remain quite lethal for a long time. various strains of it appear to act quite differently | 22:16 |
| nixonix | okay, i checked some other respiratory viruses. they register 1.5-2x numbers yearly for adenovirus and rhino, so they are maybe a bit more common. but still numbers registered very low. so if enterovirus is very rare in finland, they are probably almost as rare. are they? | 22:16 |
| nixonix | wiki: In the United States, enteroviruses are responsible for 30,000 to 50,000 meningitis hospitalizations per year as a result of 10–15 million infections | 22:28 |
| nixonix | verdict: enteroviruses are not rare, and there are also epidemics | 22:29 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/kaku_kasumi/status/1430598061412130821 | 22:33 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Kasumi Kaku (@kaku_kasumi): "This may not be significant, but the COVID-naive, vaccinated group has noticeably higher comorbidity rates." | nitter | 22:33 |
| twomoon | what is "covid-naive"? | 22:33 |
| twomoon | not-once-infected? | 22:33 |
| imaginary | nixonix: could that just mean that they got the vaccine earlier? | 22:39 |
| nixonix | something to do, bb a bit later | 22:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +119 deaths (now 114521) since 20 hours ago | 22:41 |
| nixonix | yeah, covid-naive didnt have infections before vax (unless they missed some of them, and prob did). they had 3 models, and i think one of them had vaccinated _with_ previous infection, but the 2 other models didnt (or something like that if i recall) | 22:47 |
| nixonix | "SARS-CoV-2-naïve vaccinees had a 13.06-fold (95% CI, 8.08 to 21.11) increased risk for breakthrough infection with the Delta variant compared to those previously infected, when the first event (infection or vaccination) occurred during January and February of 2021" | 22:50 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full | 22:51 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medrxiv.org: Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections | medRxiv | 22:51 |
| nixonix | but notice the good critique in the twitter thread i linked earlier | 22:51 |
| nixonix | which was this: https://twitter.com/DGBassani/status/1431390188924768269 | 22:52 |
| twomoon | nixonix, if you're going to talk so much can you please answer people's questions once in a while | 22:54 |
| twomoon | "prove that you're not a bot", at least once in a while | 22:55 |
| nixonix | you mean your questions? | 22:55 |
| twomoon | anyone's questions | 22:55 |
| nixonix | have you used some other nick before? | 22:55 |
| twomoon | yes but probably not in this chat | 22:56 |
| nixonix | where are you from? | 22:56 |
| twomoon | USA but who cares, we're just here to learn from one another | 22:57 |
| nixonix | or trolling perhaps... | 22:57 |
| twomoon | no sir | 22:57 |
| LjL | it seems we're all going to get the virus of being intolerant of others | 22:59 |
| LjL | but for the record | 23:01 |
| LjL | <twomoon> what is "covid-naive"? | 23:01 |
| LjL | <twomoon> not-once-infected? | 23:01 |
| finely[m] | <de-facto> "and i assume they are going to..." <- That's optimistic. | 23:01 |
| LjL | <nixonix> yeah, covid-naive didnt have infections before vax (unless they missed some of them, and prob did). they had 3 models, and i think one of them had vaccinated _with_ previous infection, but the 2 other models didnt (or something like that if i recall) | 23:01 |
| LjL | this looks like an answer to me | 23:01 |
| twomoon | oh sorry i got disconnected | 23:01 |
| twomoon | i didn't notice it | 23:01 |
| twomoon | and i had to wind up looking it up on google but still wasn't sure | 23:02 |
| pwr22 | <twomoon> "he says scientists are embracing..." <- Seems premature to assume it will become permanently endemic - we have barely even tried at making vaccines yet | 23:02 |
| nixonix | that wasnt the first time, stuff like that from twomoon | 23:03 |
| nixonix | so maybe ask somebody else from now on | 23:03 |
| twomoon | it was the first time | 23:03 |
| twomoon | this is the first time i lost my patience, but let's chalk it up to my bad internet | 23:03 |
| nixonix | no, there was something like that a few days ago | 23:04 |
| twomoon | no, there wasn't. i rarely lose my patience | 23:04 |
| ublx | seems rather more like you're having a trying time lately, twomoon, and that it's making you abrasive | 23:05 |
| twomoon | you're welcome to try to prove it because you have the logs | 23:05 |
| twomoon | sure, that's true ublx but i didn't say anything abrasive in the past few days | 23:05 |
| ublx | yesterday or the day before, twomoon, you said to nixonix something like "you have a rather decently sized ego" | 23:05 |
| ublx | which qualifies as abrasive in any sensible mind | 23:06 |
| twomoon | it was a joke though, playing off his joke | 23:06 |
| twomoon | that wasn't genuinely being abrasive | 23:06 |
| twomoon | of course when someone says "i gotta be the first to say it on irc" or something, it's going to beckon some other jokes | 23:06 |
| nixonix | no i dont have logs with this client, but since you asked: "twomoonyou have a rather decently-sized ego | 23:06 |
| ublx | lol | 23:07 |
| twomoon | that's just making a counter joke | 23:07 |
| nixonix | or maybe another disconnect | 23:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Schools in crosshairs of US COVID-19 debate: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Aug 31, 2021 Parents are split on whether mask mandates belong in schools, and colleges grapple with vaccine mandates. → https://is.gd/iMhW12 | 23:07 |
| twomoon | but today i felt that nixonix was like a freight train that doesn't want to stop his train of thought for anything or anyone. but it was my bad luck that my internet disconnected and i didn't realize it | 23:08 |
| twomoon | so sorry about that | 23:08 |
| nixonix | lets see if it continues. people tend to do what they do | 23:08 |
| twomoon | ublx it's sensible that some people would see that as abrasive, but i can tell you don't hang out at pubs much and joke around | 23:09 |
| ublx | hm | 23:09 |
| twomoon | so try to see things from other people's perspectives sometimes and you won't see so many things as abrasive | 23:09 |
| ublx | overfamiliarity is a species of abrasiveness | 23:11 |
| twomoon | anything can be abrasive to anyone, sure. but what matters is...does the common or median gent find it abrasive | 23:12 |
| nixonix | anyways, our "argument" on grey area infections, thats interesting and involves all kind of messy shit, like if there are cellular immunity for those with no abs (and if they are protective - or even harmful perhaps - if there are) | 23:12 |
| twomoon | one time i walked into a pub with a broken arm and some guys made a joke that i had jerked off too much | 23:12 |
| twomoon | is that abrasive? no, not to me, but to some fringe people it probably would be | 23:13 |
| LjL | i wouldn't call that abrasive | 23:13 |
| LjL | i'd call that being a cunt | 23:13 |
| twomoon | lol | 23:13 |
| LjL | anyway, i would point to nixonix trying to bring the straying subject back to covid | 23:14 |
| twomoon | ok i'll shut up now | 23:14 |
| nixonix | yeah, im here for virus chat. pol chans are for trolling and stuff. in that danish study they did have quite a bit of reinfections, most of them prob real | 23:15 |
| nixonix | and they test a lot so there are likely quite a bit of nonsymptomatic cases identified, and later then reinfected | 23:15 |
| nixonix | i still like my line "what is an infection, anyway" (100 vs 99 infected cells was a joke, but the thing itself isnt moot imo) | 23:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Teen in hospital with virus urges others to get vaccinated → https://is.gd/CVbRjK | 23:18 |
| nixonix | if they have so high cycles in pcr they are very unlikely to infect anyone, and not even have symptoms, not getting abs - is that an infection? in what sense it is, and what it isnt | 23:18 |
| twomoon | that's why i asked about covid-naive. does it just mean testing positive or does it mean having symptoms | 23:18 |
| twomoon | it's poorly defined from what i can see | 23:18 |
| LjL | it means not testing positive and not having symptoms | 23:19 |
| LjL | "naive" means you haven't had it | 23:19 |
| LjL | more specifically that your system isn't familiar with it | 23:19 |
| nixonix | and imo denialists werent right saying they use too high pcr thresholds, because they are saying that they will show something else than sars2, like contamination from whatever | 23:19 |
| twomoon | it would be good if we got tested right before getting the first vaccine dosage | 23:20 |
| twomoon | that would be a nice way to collect some valuable data | 23:20 |
| twomoon | but that's expensive i suppose | 23:20 |
| nixonix | some hc officials are now saying that not everybody should be tested, like kids with mild symptoms, those that have two vaccine doses but only mild symptoms.. so they are kind of taking the stance, they are likely to have that grey are infection if anything | 23:21 |
| nixonix | which wouldnt be likely to infect other people, and doesnt matter if they have sars2 or not | 23:21 |
| nixonix | with these rhino and enterovirus _epidemics_ here currently | 23:22 |
| nixonix | year ago we had rhino epidemic, with thousands of infected daily. i recall reading the number 40k estimated at peaks, so that they couldnt test them all for sars2 (we had very low cases at the time, unlike this year) | 23:23 |
| nixonix | .title https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/224/1/31/6179975 | 23:24 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From academic.oup.com: Human Rhinovirus Infection Blocks Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Replication Within the Respiratory Epithelium: Implications for COVID-19 Epidemiology | The Journal of Infectious [...] | 23:24 |
| twomoon | i need to nurture my rhinovirus population in my nose | 23:26 |
| nixonix | .title https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ZAF | 23:27 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From outbreak.info: outbreak.info | 23:27 |
| LjL | <apropos> ● [outbreak] Increasing incidence of parosmia and phantosmia in patients recovering from COVID-19 smell loss → http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.08.28.21262763v1?rss=1 | 23:32 |
| LjL | On follow-up (median time since COVID-19 onset ~200 days), ~60% of women and ~48% of men reported less than 80% of their pre-illness smell ability. Taste typically recovered faster than smell, and taste loss rarely persisted if smell recovered. Prevalence of parosmia and phantosmia was ~10% of participants in S1 and increased substantially in S2: ~47% for parosmia and ~25% for phantosmia. Persistent smell impairment was associated with more symptoms overall, | 23:32 |
| LjL | suggesting it may be a key marker of long-COVID. | 23:32 |
| twomoon | oh god parosmia now | 23:32 |
| nixonix | fake memories too (just anecdotal, maybe not true) | 23:34 |
| LjL | :( | 23:34 |
| LjL | that's not encouraging at all that at a later time they report *more* sleep disturbances than earlier | 23:34 |
| LjL | this virus is full of unpleasantness | 23:34 |
| imaginary | delta not causing loss of smell/taste as often is surely good news all things considered? | 23:35 |
| LjL | i suppose | 23:36 |
| LjL | but delta is more severe in other ways, so i'd like to see that corroborated by more studies | 23:36 |
| nixonix | i think that phone app study finding more sniffles, less smell/taste probs etc, isnt reliable, as at the same time there was some common cold epidemic in uk. false positives from rapid tests or otherwise self-diagnosed common cold cases might have reported lot of symptoms there | 23:37 |
| imaginary | yeah | 23:38 |
| twomoon | these viruses somehow get at our neurological systems | 23:38 |
| imaginary | yeah, idk if covid being of the more studied illnesses is gonan lead to a lot of noise in publications | 23:38 |
| nixonix | but maybe also reinfections, where the symptoms might be different (if it really is that common like in that danish study) | 23:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: R to @EricTopol: Graphs from @feldman_gil through August 23rd for cases and severe cases in Israel by vaccination status and age groups. Divergence (and reduction in vaccinated) for cases in the age groups well along booster initiative. Reduction not evident in severe cases/100K by age groups. → https://is.gd/29QSkQ | 23:39 |
| nixonix | but are those true reinfections, if they never got symptoms from the primary inf, and 2nd time only very low viral dose in upper respiratory, and possibly no systemic infection? in what sense they are, and in what they are not? | 23:40 |
| nixonix | viral *load | 23:40 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/chngin_the_wrld/status/1432801940597927940 | 23:47 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Steffanie Strathdee, PhD 🗡️ 🦠Superbug Slayer🗡️ (@chngin_the_wrld): "How about a little #COVID19vaccine humor on the elusiveness of #herdimmunity? I bet @EricTopol will get a kick out of this one." | [...] | 23:47 |
| twomoon | how serious is israel's vaccine effort with NRx ? | 23:51 |
| LjL | NRx? | 23:52 |
| twomoon | yeah, NRx pharma. they are working on a live-virus vaccine | 23:52 |
| LjL | oh, had no idea | 23:52 |
| LjL | live virus? scary | 23:52 |
| LjL | how long have they been working on this? before or after Pfizer threatened to stop supplying them? | 23:53 |
| twomoon | BriLife is a self-propagating, live-virus vaccine, which sets it apart from mRNA vaccines produced by companies like Pfizer, which are currently being used in Israel's successful vaccination campaign. It will initially be delivered via injection, NRx said. | 23:53 |
| LjL | self-propagating...? | 23:53 |
| LjL | picture me wide-eyed | 23:53 |
| dTal | what if covid only makes you *think* you have the sniffles | 23:53 |
| twomoon | yeah i'm trying to figure out when Israel's work with US-based NRx started | 23:53 |
| twomoon | lol LjL it sounds scary doesn't it | 23:53 |
| LjL | does self-propagating mean what i think it means | 23:53 |
| dTal | I seem to recall yuriwho mentioning working on something like this | 23:54 |
| LjL | this is not a very long article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BriLife | 23:54 |
| LjL | dTal, :( | 23:54 |
| LjL | i don't know what he worked on, he was always vague | 23:54 |
| nixonix | .title https://twitter.com/_lewisy/status/1430291421085552641 | 23:54 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From twitter.com: Yair Lewis (@_lewisy): "* VE for infection wanes over time, and is ~50-60% after 6 months. * VE for severe disease is **still high** after 6 months - 94% for ages 40-59, 86% for 60+. >>>" | El [...] | 23:54 |
| dTal | self-propagating aerosol vaccine | 23:54 |
| LjL | but i remember one day when i suggested making an infectious, but harmless, version of the virus, everyone yelled at my irresponsibility :P | 23:54 |
| dTal | which sounds.... idk, kinda like act 1 of an apocalypse movie | 23:55 |
| dTal | LjL: the thing is I don't see how that's possible. The infectiousness is why it's harmful no? | 23:56 |
| LjL | no? | 23:56 |
| dTal | the virus doesn't "care" about anything except making more virus | 23:56 |
| LjL | true, it doesn't care | 23:56 |
| specing | live virus as in replication-competent? AFAIK adenovirus vector ones are alive as well... | 23:56 |
| dTal | so all the negative effects are side effects of making more virus | 23:56 |
| LjL | that doesn't entail that there is no possible way of making more virus with fewer side effects | 23:57 |
| LjL | as you said, the virus just doesn't care about that | 23:57 |
| LjL | at least not until it kills people enough to hinder propagation | 23:57 |
| nixonix | [Tuesday, July 21, 2020] [8:59:52 PM EEST] <nixonix> i wonder if any teams have plans for "self-spreading vaccines" for sars-2 yet... i got this idea here a few days ago, but i found its not a new idea actually | 23:57 |
| dTal | I guess we're hoping it'll evolve that way anyway huh | 23:57 |
| dTal | so your suggestion amounts to helping the virus aalong | 23:57 |
| nixonix | <nixonix> even my name idea has been used before: <nixonix> you can call it self-spreading vaccine, so it will sound better for public | 23:58 |
| nixonix | we are just recycling ideas... | 23:58 |
| specing | no-jab vaccine | 23:58 |
| nixonix | it happened accidentally once, i think with polio vaccine | 23:59 |
| LjL | dTal, but the immediate objection is that if we manage to design a more infectious virus (it has to be more infectious to prevail over the circulating variants), and then it recombines with a less infectious but more lethal virus, we're going to be killing a lot of people | 23:59 |
| nixonix | it would really get antivaxers riled up | 23:59 |
| dTal | also a lot of people would be upset yes | 23:59 |
Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!
