libera/##covid-19/ Saturday, 2021-09-04

nixonixnow in situation like this, its possible that delta or something similar variant (very high transmission, but medium evasion) will take over again from that SA-type variant. depending how fast 3rd doses are administered00:00
dTal/join #nixonix00:01
nixonixwith one #?00:01
dTalgood point, is your source code free? :p00:01
nixonixim afraid not00:02
nixonixlets see if im right. should start to show in countries with slow 3rd dose rate maybe 6-7 months after theyve got some level of herd immunity without much restrictions (depending how much and fast they will get SA variant in the country)00:05
lastshellhow is the end of the world going ?00:28
dTaleverything is proceeding as I have forseen it00:31
lastshelldTal care to expand a little bit I lose track this last days I know that we have now a "mu" variant00:32
de-factogreek letters are a finite set... WHO would have thought THAT :D00:32
lastshellis been bck and fwd the 3rd booster approval here in usa00:32
nixonix.title https://scitechdaily.com/ultra-low-doses-of-inhaled-nanobodies-prevents-and-treats-severe-covid-19-in-hamsters/  this idea seems to be still alive, somewhat00:33
Brainstormnixonix: From scitechdaily.com: Ultra-Low Doses of Inhaled Nanobodies Prevents and Treats Severe COVID-19 in Hamsters00:33
lastshellthey should use semver.org00:33
nixonixthey already chose to use constellation names00:33
specinginhaled nanobodies? oh my, antivaxxers will have a field day with that one00:33
de-factonixonix, i never understoof why it did not progress faster, what is the problem with those?00:34
de-facto*understood00:34
lastshellwhy use something that has also finite options ?00:34
BrainstormNew from The Lancet (Online): [Comment] The Lancet Commission on water, sanitation and hygiene, and health: In 2010, access to water and sanitation was recognised as a human right and, in 2015, an ambitious Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving universal access to safely managed water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) services by 2030 was [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/K88Mfa00:36
nixonixsomething easi to remember, but almost unlimited combinations... like passwords! combinations of random words. or hexadecimals00:36
specingthe horse battery staple variant00:37
nixonixrea!s3cretVar1ant00:38
lastshellI wish there was a test to see how good or bad you can resist covid00:40
de-factothe PANGO Lineage allows to include ancestors, imho a valuable feature00:41
de-factothere is lastshell :D00:41
nixonixnot approved by CDC00:41
de-factoit just, well it can go wrong, its called challenge with the real pathogen00:41
lastshelllmao00:41
lastshellyeah I'm not joe rogan to get quick treatmeants00:42
nixonixfauci said a few months ago, that there are not commercially available way to find out if the protection is still good or not, so he are just waiting for news if breakthroughs start to get common00:42
nixonixhe is00:43
de-factobut yeah it would be neat if we had a harmless test, such as a prick-test etc that could test for risk from COVID without posing a real problem to the individual00:43
nixonixel cheapo surrogate neutralization test from ali express00:44
lastshellsounds like el chapo not sure if the brand name give me confidence :P00:45
lastshellthe news fear mongering or is true young and healthy indivuals also die ?00:47
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Delta in Denmark, new @TheLancetInfDis https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00580-6/fulltext2.8 X fold risk of hospitalization compared with Alpha, replicating a recent report from England (2.3 X)That heightened risk was not significant with vaccination (1.25 X, [95% CI 0.34,4.6]) → https://is.gd/8B6prZ00:47
de-factobut seriously cant we provoke the immune system with some antigen test and observe a spectrum of markers to try to correlate its reaction somehow with later severity in case that individual is unlucky enough to catch it in real life?00:47
lastshellI guess so00:48
de-factoits much more complex than allergies or such, but still, can we exclude that something like that could possibly work?00:48
lastshellI'm still microdosing (using kn95 masks in the stores) but not staying long just for the stuff I need and go00:50
lastshelland continue to do exercise this last 2 weeks more than 250 minutes00:51
lastshellthe recommended is 150 minutes00:51
lastshellhttps://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/fitness/expert-answers/exercise/faq-2005791600:52
nixonix" Expect brittle immune systems in those without thymus function to replenish aged t cells" i wonder how likely are those damaged t-cell repair functions, or if there is some information nowdays00:52
BrainstormNew from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: Andy Becker: Bagheiat-allah University of Medical Sciences: COVID-19 Recombinant RBD Protein Vaccine → https://is.gd/7u1GtD00:57
nixonix"We found a similarly increased risk of hospitalisation associated with the delta variant (risk ratio 2·83 [95% CI 2·02–3·98]00:59
nixonixcompared to alpha. aka kent00:59
nixonixinnit00:59
nixonixratios are higher for young, and a bit lower for over 60 yo01:01
lastshellwell that is kind of good and bad for me01:01
nixonixshows in supplementary material. wide CIs in age groups, but looks like it01:02
oft_gegongtesting01:06
LjLsuccess01:07
LjLi think01:07
oft_gegongso I have two issues with covid vaccines: (1) why are the vaccine containers labelled "COVID vaccine" versus its real ingredients? (2) why are there two shots for one vaccine? sounds 900%unnatural.01:08
dTaldoes "testing" mean "testing people01:09
dTal's patience"01:09
Cashlinamong other things im sure01:09
LjLi take it back, the testing was unsuccessful01:10
oft_gegongI'm for real. I'm for real.01:10
dTalbasically, they're trying to hide the real ingredients from you so you won't realize the terrible, harmful things in it. Fortunately there's Google01:10
Cashlinthanks LjL01:10
Cashlinwhen I took mine it listed them all on a paper they gave me01:10
dTaland the second shot is to top up the batteries of all the microchips from the first shot01:11
nixonix39% of nonhospitalized patients exhibited no detectable neutralization against B.1.351. Moreover, monoclonal neutralizing antibodies show sharp reductions in their binding kinetics and neutralizing potential to B.1.351 and P.1 but not to B.1.1.701:11
Cashlinthe human body contains formeldahyde even in small doses, holy shit everyone stop eating apples, the seeds have CYANIDE!!01:11
Cashlinhahahahaha dTal you had me going in the first half01:11
nixonix.title https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abj536501:12
Brainstormnixonix: From www.science.org: Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern evade humoral immune responses from infection and vaccination01:12
dTalno it's true, whoever heard of a "booster shot"?? it's sketchy as shit is what it is01:12
LjLnixonix, i think that kinda shows how inefficient peer review is in the COVID era... a paper on variants published *now*, NOT assessing Delta ;(01:13
dTalliterally no vaccine ever has had booster shots01:13
LjLsomeone on Twitter just DM'd me "Boo!"01:13
LjLnow i want to complete with "...stershot"01:13
Cashlinhahaha01:14
Cashlinyeah why would i need to sit in a higher chair for another shot? smh01:14
dTalTwitter is an ambitious medium in which to attempt a jump scare01:14
Cashlinjust add ":P"01:15
LjLdTal, if you knew the person, you'd have long accepted the lack of sensicalness01:15
specingdTal: tetanus?01:15
nixonixits time to look at another variants now, when the share of immunized has increased, and the protection is waning fast. SA or similar01:15
LjLdTal, i think you forgot the /s emoji for specing01:16
specingdTal: tick-borne meningoencephalitis vaccine has boosters every 5 years01:16
specinglol01:16
LjLwhat do you mean Unicode has issued no /s emoji yet?!01:16
dTalspecing: I think that was for the 4g microchips01:16
LjLyeah but 4G is still current, they're only decommissioning 3G01:16
LjLwhich was the smallpox vaccine i think?01:16
LjLso smallpox is coming back now01:16
nixonixbut sure, delta should have been included. maybe next version01:16
Cashlinwe should have more tick borne pathogen vaccines01:17
specingoft_gegong: (2) because it boosts efficacy .There's even a 3-shot one that recently got approved in India or something01:18
oft_gegongspecing, sounds like BS (not BE) to me01:18
dTalcan't we just engineer a bunch of mosquitos where getting bitten vaccinates you against covid01:18
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern evade humoral immune responses from infection and vaccination ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/44JBHMTU )01:18
specingand there's multiple 1-shot ones, like janssen and sputnik-lite01:18
specingoft_gegong: BS?01:19
oft_gegongspecing, listen. Okay. There's no vaccine out there for anything else that has two vaccines for.01:19
dTalspecing, feed not the troll01:19
oft_gegongdTal, I'm being a 17%troll.01:19
oft_gegong83%non-troll01:20
LjLdTal, we've kinda been feeding it all long though, except specing is doing it for serious ;(01:20
LjLalong01:20
specingI'ts all right, I'm falling asleep and can't do anything serious anyway01:20
specingoft_gegong: sorry, but I'm too tired to parse that sentence01:21
LjLoft_gegong, you're right in that i don't believe there is any vaccine for a vaccine01:21
oft_gegongspecing, vaccines don't have a booster shot. Something is wrong withe the vaccine.01:21
dTalit's true. You caught them. well done01:22
LjLokay let's move on from the obvious untruth, it was like fun for a while but it's not now01:22
oft_gegongI've figured it out! I found the truth. *unleashing 100 balloons*01:23
specingoft_gegong: I just told you, tick-borne meningoencephalitis and tetanus have booster shots01:24
specingoft_gegong: *vaccines. The latter is even mandatory in my county01:24
oft_gegongspecing, oh I missed that. sorry. Okay I get it now.01:25
dTalsounds suspicious to me01:25
dTalhow can we even trust this "specing"01:25
nixonixthere are lots of vaccines needing 3 doses. hpv, hepatitis, childrens 6-in-1, ... i saw longer list in some tweet i cant find rn01:25
dTalcould be feeding us all kinds of misinfo01:26
specingah yeah, HPV is 3 doses for >15 years old. But it's part of initial vaccination and thus not really a booster?01:26
dTaloh sure nixonix I bet you can't find that tweet, because it DOESNT EXIST right??01:26
specingOr maybe we could call it a booster, since older people's immune systems need an additional boost, hehe01:27
nixonixyou got me. all the other stuff ive said here, is not just made up01:27
dTalthat's just what you'd like us to think huh01:27
dTalalright alright, I'm done :p01:28
specingToday I read that nearly all sexually active people catch HPV in the course of their lives01:28
nixonixno more beer for you today01:28
specinglike wtf, why aren't vaccinations for HPV mandatory01:28
dTalguess we don't have to worry then eh specing ho ho ho01:28
LjLspecing, we only semi-recently started figuring out that HPV causes nasty things01:28
specingI looked at a price list of a vaccination office and it's 200 eur to get vaccinated against HPV D:01:29
LjLHPV vaccination is now strongly recommended here for prepubescent children01:29
specingLjL: yeah, a whole bunch of cancers01:29
dTalwait what, you can get vaccinated for that?01:29
LjLyes01:29
dTalyeah that's a wtf01:29
LjLi mean, *you* probably can't, usefully01:29
dTalwhy is every single person not vaccinated01:29
LjLthat's because you've been naughty01:29
dTalwhy is it still a thing01:30
nixonixand varicella stays in brain, was it. all or just for some?01:30
dTal...are you saying I probably have HPV already LjL?01:30
LjLdTal, i would imagine so01:30
LjLdTal, also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HPV_vaccine#History may have some of the answers to your startled questions01:30
dTalI would imagine it does but it's more fun to be startled in here01:31
oft_gegongI have the disease you guys..I'm gonna die..I'm gonna DIE. YOU HEAR ME. I'M DEAD. *fake dies*01:31
nixonixwhose buddy is this01:32
LjLyou're doubtlessly gonna die01:32
dTaloft_gegong there isn't room for two loopy people in the channel at once, and I've got the conch right now01:32
* oft_gegong resigns01:32
LjLi want a retroactive tinnitus vaccine01:33
specinglol >retroactive01:33
dTalI think the word you're searching for is "cure"01:33
oft_gegongOr Heal 3 in RPG terms01:33
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1433907516245569542  whats the newest plan in usa?01:35
Brainstormnixonix: From twitter.com: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "How to lose public confidence? 1. Announce a booster program on Sept 20 for all at 8 months post-vaccine 2. Change it to 6 months, then 5 months, then back to 8 3. Lack of [...]01:35
LjLdTal, no 'cause it has to be a cure that ensures it never comes back01:36
nixonixit could be psychosomatic. NLP...01:36
LjLnixonix, varicella is a herpesvirus, i think they stay in nerves, but not specifically in the brain (if HSV gets into the brain it's *trouble*)01:36
LjLnixonix, psychosomatic in only the left ear for 4 years, sure01:36
nixonixcns i think i read some day01:37
LjLmaybe, hope not, that'd be scary01:37
LjLanyway it does stay around (somewhere) for everyone afaik but for most people the immune system keeps it at bay throughout adulthood01:37
LjLat some point it may resurface as shingles01:37
LjLwhich is not fun, but you can get vaccinated against *that*, which doesn't get rid of the virus, but gives your immune system a gentle reminder01:38
nixonixThe primary infection causes chickenpox or varicella after which it becomes latent in the brain, dorsal nerve roots, and autonomic ganglia and may reactivate to cause herpes zoster01:39
nixonixbut i really dont know much about non-rona viruses. educate me01:39
specing> In early 2013 the two companies who sell the most common vaccines announced a price cut to less than US$5 per dose to poor countries, as opposed to US$130 per dose in the U.S.01:39
LjLShingrix for 5 bucks?01:40
specingMaybe I should plan a vaccination trip to albania or something01:40
LjLi'm not entirely sure Albania counts as a poor country01:41
specingLjL: the what01:41
nixonix%tr <fi vyöruusu01:41
Brainstormnixonix, Finnish to English: shingles (Google) — Shingles (Wikipedia)01:41
nixonixshingrix the same?01:41
LjLnixonix, shingrix is one of the two vaccines available for it, the other is Zostavax01:41
LjLShingrix is more efficacious although it also has more side effects01:42
specing53 eur for one dose(?) of HPV vaccine (unknown which one) in my country01:42
LjLZostavax is basically the Vaxzevria of shingles01:42
specingagainst HPV 6,11,16,1801:42
LjLspecing, are you sure you can even get it if you're not like <18?01:42
specingnot sure, but it doesen't say that its for children only...01:43
specingah, and in the news article some 23 year old student of medicine said that they recently got it01:43
dTalShingrix sounds like a Chinese province01:44
nixonixshingavax, i like that01:44
dTalZostovax, a Russian city01:44
LjLdTal, that totally doesn't work in chinese phonology, do you want an a/an lecture in chinese or?01:44
nixonixi think the Spikevax was a joke, then they after laughing started saying, yeah, why not01:45
Cashlinhahaha LjL keeps taking names01:45
dTalLjL: ...I'll be good...01:45
Cashlinthe shing sounds chinese but the rix doesnt but you do somtimes see Xs in translations i think01:45
LjLCashlin, but the x is at the start of the syllable, never at the end01:46
LjLdTal, (sorry you got it anyway)01:46
Cashlinahhh I see, that pattern seems clear to me now01:46
LjLnixonix, i think there must actually be some legal intricacy behind these many names for vaccines. the latest FDA authorization covers "Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine" and "Comirnaty" separately, as separate products, with then a sidenote saying they don't differ in composition, safety or efficacy01:47
LjLhttps://www.fda.gov/media/150386/download01:48
nixonixit might be due to changed manufacturing process, which needs to be approved. novavax had problems with FDA when they changed it from ... possibly what they used for those in trials or something01:49
LjLnixonix, but in Europe it's been Comirnaty for a much longer time already01:50
LjL"Pfizer-BioNTech COVID‑19 Vaccine contains a nucleoside-modified messenger RNA  (modRNA) encoding the viral spike (S) glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 formulated in lipid  particles.  COMIRNATY (COVID-19 Vaccine, mRNA) is the same formulation as the Pfizer- BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine and can be used interchangeably with the Pfizer-BioNTech  COVID-19 Vaccine to provide the COVID-19 vaccination series.801:50
LjL8 The licensed vaccine has the same formulation as the EUA-authorized vaccine and the products can be used  interchangeably to provide the vaccination series without presenting any safety or effectiveness concerns. The  products are legally distinct with certain differences that do not impact safety or effectiveness.01:50
LjL"certain differences"01:51
LjLi'd have a youtube video to link about "certain differences" if they hadn't taken it down arbitrarily ;(01:51
specingingreedients contain more legalese01:51
nixonixbesides manufacturing possibly, they changed the cold chain requirements. maybe nothing changed in the product and they just found that warmer was ok, or then they changed something01:52
nixonixeg mrna synthesis may have been swapped to something that is more effective01:53
nixonixthey improved production on some european plants, and eu approved it. maybe they just added more production lines, or then improved the old ones01:55
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/143351090225966694801:56
Brainstormnixonix: From twitter.com: Anthony J Leonardi, PhD, MS (@fitterhappierAJ): "2 months isnt even enough time for repeat animal challenge studies. it's too fast and the returns diminish like the titers" | nitter01:56
nixonixsome things to consider when wondering why not delta spike yet01:57
LjLi'm not really wondering myself01:57
LjL1) it takes time 2) Pfizer wants to make money01:57
LjLmore* money01:57
LjLModerna started working and trialling a Beta vaccine several months ago01:58
LjLare they being paid off? no, maybe they won't even end up using it, as now Beta seems inconsequential in the west01:58
LjLand in any case, the trial isn't done yet, even though unlike Pfizer, they started a while ago01:58
nixonixwhat if beta spike is pretty good vs delta, but delta spike isnt that good vs beta. then it beta, gamma or something new starts to take over, among those with partial immunity, like i envisioned earlier02:00
nixonixcurse you net split!02:00
LjLin fact i think Moderna did try pointing out that their Beta vaccine elicits high titers for Delta02:01
LjLi'm sure they don't want to just have wasted the effort02:01
LjLand hey maybe they're right and it works fine, but i'm not sure how rationally vaccine decisions are going to be taken as the landscape gets more complex02:02
LjLthe 3rd booster in the US already seems like a mess, if i am to listen to Topol02:02
nixonixbut they have much more information than we. im sure they think their best whats the most profitable02:03
LjLquite02:05
de-factodo we have numbers for how many of the PCR positive do seroconversion?02:17
de-factodoes it depend on age?02:17
LjLwe don't really, given that study published by the CDC cited three different studies with *widely* different seroconversion rates (and it's itself only a small study)02:20
de-factoasking because of tested or vaccinated or recovered, and i guess recovered means from having had a positive PCR test02:21
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 'I wish we didn't have to do this': Alberta to offer $100 incentive to get vaccinated against COVID-19 → https://is.gd/0HMIEv02:22
LjLde-facto, well, on the other hand, you might not get meaningful seroconversion from a vaccine either, for various reasons... and yet they give you a certificate without testing your antibodies first02:22
de-factoso they not only equate those that once had a positive PCR test with those that were vaccinated, they also ignore reinfections and breakthrough infections in Germany right now02:22
de-factoso pretty much everything about that is wrong imho02:23
de-factobut i think the seroconversion rates from vaccines are much more reliable02:23
nixonixyeah02:23
nixonixit seems from mild or nonsymptomatic infection its not nearly 100% for IgG. at least more than minimal02:24
nixonixhard to say, because many mild or nonsymptomatic are never found02:24
de-factoand also very young, i heard they can just kill it  without even seroconverting02:25
nixonixand do they produce IgA, IgM, cellular immunity, and if, how about is it infection + 1 dose still good protection, or do they need 2?02:25
de-factobut if they are found, lets say with routine testing PCR, then they are counted as cases, seroconversion is assumed and they are treated like they would have been vaccinated02:25
de-factono testing anymore, and assuming they can not get reinfections02:26
de-factothat is just plain wrong imho02:26
nixonixtopol just wrote that infection and one dose is the best protection there is. but how about if not seroconverting. those are the gray area cases, did they have some systemic infection, or just in mucosal02:26
LjL"recovered" as a valid certificate was probably a bad idea anyway since there are now "COVID chasers" who try hard to get it just so they can obtain the certificate without a vaccine02:27
nixonixif found in pcr, it doesnt mean they had systemic infection and much protection necessarily. they just had some viral load in upper respiratory02:27
de-factothey should get tested for seroconversion, e.g. if they carry antibodies and if low get an additional vaccine dose, then tested again if antibody levels are similar to two vaccine shots02:28
de-factoor: they should just get vaccinated as everyone else02:28
de-factoand everybody, regardless of any seroconversion status should get tested02:28
LjLand also we shouldn't go anywhere at any time for any reason whatsoever02:29
nixonixthose hospitalized have a good seroconversion rate02:30
nixonixwas it in that jap study or what was it. or danish02:31
de-factoyeah of course02:31
de-factobecause symptomatic infections or even hospitalized have a very strong immune reaction02:31
de-factobut what about those that got tested positive but have super mild or even asymptomatic infection?02:32
nixonixhttps://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abj536502:32
nixonixpage 402:32
de-factoso vaccinated have similar neutralization compared with hospitalized infections02:33
nixonixand imo you need around 150 neut id50 to (still) have a decent protection for infection02:34
de-factonon-hospitalized infecitons scatter over a very wide range02:34
nixonixbetter. hospitalized vs vacc02:35
nixonixyeah, its a crapshoot02:35
nixonixso if i would have got infection before vax, id taken the 1st dose maybe 2-3 months after cured (depending on current risk), then the 2nd just 3 months later prob. or 2 if very mild symptoms02:36
nixonixgiven choice02:36
de-factoyeah would make sense02:37
nixonixanyways, these few recent papers, quatar, both danish, the one above, are the best we have for now, to estimate the protection, shares of those not seroconverting etc. worth saving02:39
nixonixand that on us hcw was it, while not representative sample which must be considered (36% something)02:40
nixonixthat refd to the german study with 85%02:41
nixonixlots of interesting little papers have come out recently, with bits of information that can be combined02:43
de-factoyes indeed02:44
nixonix.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050v2.full  - on lethality too, like this one02:46
Brainstormnixonix: From www.medrxiv.org: Progressive Increase in Virulence of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Ontario, Canada | medRxiv02:46
de-factouff so those numbers really say it becomes *more* aggressive not less (as many like to wishfully repeat without looking at data)02:49
de-facto"Results Compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 strains, the adjusted elevation in risk associated with N501Y-positive variants was 59% (49-69%) for hospitalization; 105% (82-134%) for ICU admission; and 61% (40-87%) for death."02:49
de-facto"Increases with Delta variant were more pronounced: 120% (93-153%) for hospitalization; 287% (198-399%) for ICU admission; and 137% (50-230%) for death."02:49
de-facto"The progressive increase in transmissibility and virulence of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs will result in a significantly larger, and more deadly, pandemic than would have occurred in the absence of VOC emergence."02:50
LjLwhat do you think about this comment https://disqus.com/embed/comments/?base=default&f=medrxiv&t_i=node%2F380177&t_u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.medrxiv.org%2Fcontent%2F10.1101%2F2021.07.05.21260050v2&t_e=Progressive%20Increase%20in%20Virulence%20of%20Novel%20SARS-CoV-2%20Variants%20in%20Ontario%2C%20Canada&t_d=Progressive%20Increase%20in%20Virulence%20of%20Novel%20SARS-CoV-2%20Variants%20in%20Ontario%2C%20Canada&t_t=Progressive%20Increase%20in%20Virulence%20of%20Novel%20SAR02:52
LjLS-CoV-2%20Variants%20in%20Ontario%2C%20Canada&s_o=default#02:52
LjLgood lord02:52
LjLthe second comment at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050v2.full02:52
LjLand the paper it refers to, with an abstract that's not saying much https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261317v102:52
LjLwhich is supposedly from israel's sort-of-unanalysed data02:52
nixonixyeah, they all lack adjustment for confounders. the danish: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00580-6/fulltext02:57
de-facto.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262446v102:58
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines Against SARS-CoV-2 Infection During a Delta Variant Epidemic Surge in Multnomah County, Oregon, July 2021 | medRxiv02:58
nixonixhow about comparing hospitalization rates among kids, not eligible for vaccines yet (vs previous variants):03:08
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/143385719422349312903:08
Brainstormnixonix: From twitter.com: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "The other @CDCgov report today in kids; impact of Delta and vaccinations in adolescents https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7036e2.htm?s_cid=mm7036e2_w" | 42l - nitter03:08
specingDo kids get long covid?03:09
LjLi am perplexed on whether to add https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050v3 to Zotero as the comments are kind of critical03:09
LjLthey apparently didn't even know which of the cases were vaccinated03:09
LjLhow do you make a model without that03:10
LjLmeanwhile over in ##virology the bot spits out more papers in the time it takes me to (not) roughly evaluate one, lol03:10
LjLand by "lol" i mean i feel overwhelmed and will drink alcohol03:12
nixonixwhat was the mean or median time from 2nd dose in that oregon study?03:14
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: C.1.2 variant: New coronavirus strain has highest mutation rate yet, study says → https://is.gd/1sbIO903:15
nixonixaround 100 days. a bit over 3 months. i told you, its a 4 months vax03:15
nixonixso it was significantly reduced only for minority03:16
LjLwell i can't see how it would be sustainable to vaccinate the entire population every 4 months03:17
nixonix5 months would be better than 603:17
LjLerr, why?03:18
nixonixbut if they want to burn it through unvaccinated kids, i think the adults doing that deserve some ICU time for that...03:18
nixonixless breakthroughs from 4->5 months than ->603:19
nixonixbut it isnt sustainable solution, and maybe mrna manufacturers cant produce new doses for all every 4 or 5 months. so something more lasting is needed. and also, the more there are partly protected, those with waned protection, the more chances that something like SA variant or P.1 will take over03:21
nixonixtheres supposedly a finnish paper coming out, that found 2*pfizer a bit better than az+pfizer. only a finnish press release out yet. but small samples idk if it will bring anything that matters03:25
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Oscar De La Hoya hospitalized with Covid-19 days before his return to the boxing ring → https://is.gd/6IV1uw03:26
nixonix.title https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/23/what-does-getting-covid-feel-like-for-the-fully-vaccinated03:27
Brainstormnixonix: From www.theguardian.com: What does getting Covid feel like for the fully vaccinated? | Coronavirus | The Guardian03:27
LjLSimon Price, 54, a local government employee from Abingdon, Oxfordshire, thinks he caught the virus when he attended the Euros semi-final game between England and Denmark at Wembley stadium in July.03:29
LjL“I’ve worked religiously from home and took a bit of personal pride in being very cautious to protect my family since the pandemic began. Wembley was the only place I’ve visited apart from shops and the office on a couple of occasions in June. I hadn’t been socialising otherwise.03:29
LjLgroan03:29
LjL"religiously" "pride" "very cautious"03:30
LjLand goes to a stadium03:30
LjLpeople just don't get it do they03:30
LjLMcGuire, a real estate project manager, is unsure about whether it was wise to socialise at a mass event at a time when the Delta variant was spreading rapidly. “I guess if you’ve got that many people together, even if outdoors, there’s always a risk that someone will get Covid.03:31
LjLdamn this one is smart03:31
LjLanyway this article is rubbish, it almost doesn't say anything about the "question" in the headline03:32
nixonixit included 3.7M people, but hospitalization numbers werent that big, so idk. 7 days post 2nd dose results (end of apr to mid august): VE vs "infection" (identified), 78% for all az, pfizer and moderna, combination az+mrna it was 80%03:34
nixonixvs hospitalization: both mrna vaxes 97%, az 93%, az+mrna 91%03:35
LjLi figure we'll have to see the confidence intervals03:35
LjLif they're widely overlapping it might not mean much, we've already seen that with other studies03:36
nixonixmixed variants. strange result those hospitalizations might be variance due to low numbers03:36
nixonixaz use was reduced in the spring more than in most of europe03:37
nixonixi dont know if they adjusted for age groups, time from 2nd dose or anything03:38
twomoonhello03:41
LjLthis is an... interesting account (all tweets considered) that Balloux retweeted https://twitter.com/NahasNewman03:44
LjLand by interesting i mean perplexing03:44
twomoonwhat's curious about that twitter account?03:53
twomoont.co/GXY38NRmaB?amp=1 <-- this ?03:53
LjLno04:00
LjLwhat's curious is it seems to be, almost in its entirety, an anti-mask and in particular anti-mask-in-schools account04:00
LjLthen i also find https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1432753095046356994 linked from there, which certainly makes one feel uneasy04:00
LjLbut then i look at THAT account and its profile describes it as "Attorney, author of China’s Global Lockdown Propaganda Campaign"04:00
dTalhell of a resume04:01
twomoonwhat does that even mean04:02
dTalmeans he wrote this https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/china-covid-lockdown-propaganda04:02
LjLscan through the (re)tweets and you should roughly find out, twomoon04:02
LjLall the replies are all about how this is an organized operation by worldwide government and/or China alone04:03
LjLbut i got there by following (presumably supportive) retweets by Balloux, who considers himself a "militant corona-centrist", and who also is prominent04:03
LjLi don't know if he's a corona-centrist, but if he is, he certainly seems to be into the art of making moderation extreme04:04
dTalwow, according to the twitter sidebar, "Eating a Single Hot Dog May Take 36 Minutes Off Your Life, Study Says"04:04
dTalI guess, if it's an especially large or messy hot dog...04:04
LjLdTal, that's funny, people in... uh, ##biology i think were talking about how terrible hot dogs were just a bit ago04:04
dTalit's the invisible hand of the memesphere at work LjL04:05
nixonixsocial aspects are complex in this epidemic, but so are immunological and virological. i read some leonardi's old tweets. he seemed to support t-cells matter most (for severe i think), but changed his mind. not sure if it was that preprint i wrote on july 2020 on orf8 grapping antigen presenting mhc-I04:06
nixonixwhich has got more attention lately. not sure if its confirmed, but not forgotten obviously. meaning, killer t-cells cant find infected cells04:07
nixonix.title https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/132347177561167052804:07
Brainstormnixonix: From twitter.com: Anthony J Leonardi, PhD, MS (@fitterhappierAJ): "cov2 is different, it hides from t cells with orf8 while it loads a superantigen on spike. it's an impressive virus and also gets rid of t reg cells- [...]04:07
rpifanthe current covid?04:10
nixonixi think it was in wuhan 1.0 already04:10
nixonixsyncytia (which then can kill t-cells, according to leonardi, idk) is enhanced with - was it P681R i think. which also accelerates plasma mebrane fusion in normal cell entrance04:12
nixonixsuperantigen is around PRRAR motif, and supposedly is similar than some bacterial toxins and snake venoms, making killer t-cells crazy, so they can attack any adjacent cells, be responsible in different tissue intiltration like brain, heart etc04:14
nixonixif true, idk if it is04:14
nixonixthat is the furin cleavage site04:15
nixonixmodified in novavax and possibly jnj. so if it has something to do with heart inflammation (just my idea, that it could have), those wouldnt then cause that, via that mechanism04:16
nixonixthat i wrote *about04:19
nixonixleonardis tweets have lots of information, but its pretty compressed04:21
nixonixwatching what happens in australia, or used to happen in hard hit and hard lockdown countries, idk because i havent experienced anything like that. i feel like we are mostly by-standers watching and wondering, like the main character in camuses the stranger04:29
nixonixrogan got negative from rona test today. lets see if he reports some lc stuff later or not04:52
nixonix.title https://nypost.com/article/famous-anti-vaxxers-who-suffered-from-covid/04:52
Brainstormnixonix: From nypost.com: Famous anti-vax media personalities who got COVID04:52
nixonixin nz cases went down again, now 22. in aus, more up, around 1520 in nsw and 190 in victoria04:57
nixonix.title https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9956419/Shock-JCVI-experts-decide-NOT-recommend-Covid-jabs-healthy-children-aged-12-15.html  in uk prob loud and rude arguing coming05:02
Brainstormnixonix: From www.dailymail.co.uk: Shock as JCVI experts decide NOT to recommend Covid jabs for healthy children aged 12 to 15 | Daily Mail Online05:02
nixonixChildren 'will be jabbed from next week': Government expects Chris Whitty to green light vaccines despite JCVI experts' refusal to back mass immunisation for 12 to 15-year-olds05:03
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: On a US Delta wave day when there were more than 2,000 deaths and 190,000 new cases, the "only" positive thing was that hospitalizations didn't increase (actually when down a bit), sitting at a ~100,000 plateau → https://is.gd/CG0bRC05:34
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Effective ayurvedic tips to recover from long covid → https://is.gd/6eKbgN05:45
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid-19: Final decision on jabs for children due in days: There is a "strong case" for vaccinating healthy 12 to 15-year-olds, the government believes. → https://is.gd/XkFrTH06:27
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: New Zealand reports first death from Delta variant of COVID-19 → https://is.gd/8b7d8F06:59
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US administers 373.5 mln doses of COVID-19 vaccines: CDC → https://is.gd/vEkabi07:52
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US COVID-19 booster shot campaign to start with only Pfizer: source → https://is.gd/U9vYge08:13
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: FDA pushes for Moderna booster shot data in weighing dose → https://is.gd/ZaxTc108:44
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | September 04, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/4kjfQ909:05
Pepe[m]1Hello10:06
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): China_Flu: I'm a local ICU doctor. Please take precautions, COVID-19 is going to hit our hospitals hard → https://is.gd/GalHwb10:08
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Moderna seeks EU authorization for COVID-19 vaccine booster dose → https://is.gd/uehyqc11:00
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: White House seeks $65 billion for ‘Apollo’ plan to prepare for future pandemics → https://is.gd/0wQOmO11:11
BrainstormNew from Il Sole 24 Ore: Green pass, perché ora vale per 12 mesi e quanto dura la protezione del vaccino: Il Parlamento ha appena allungato di 3 mesi la vita dei certificati verdi. Ma al momento non esistono certezze sulla durata della protezione del vaccino → https://is.gd/86arRB12:04
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Moderna Wraps Up Covid Booster Filing, Setting Up FDA Review → https://is.gd/oQmFPk12:35
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Malaysia appoints former PM to lead coronavirus recovery council → https://is.gd/zcg04a12:57
BrainstormNew from NPR: Poison Control Centers Are Fielding A Surge Of Ivermectin Overdose Calls: The nation's poison control centers saw a 245% jump in reported exposure cases from July to August as more people take the anti-parasite drug that some falsely claim treats COVID-19. → https://is.gd/oWNTyK13:07
specingkek13:08
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: New Zealand reports first death linked to Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/rwPmEJ13:39
BrainstormNew from Retraction Watch: Weekend reads: A deep dive into a problematic study of ivermectin; how journals respond to allegations; prison and now scrutiny: Before we present this week’s Weekend Reads, a question: Do you enjoy our weekly roundup? If so, we could really use your help. Would you consider a tax-deductible donation to support Weekend [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/4ZfJkE14:10
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Philippines lifts travel ban on India, 9 other countries amidst rise in Covid-19 → https://is.gd/VvhvWu14:53
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: R to @EricTopol: Links to the 2 studies reported this week on the difference in antibody response → https://is.gd/RXJOHE15:35
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Pediatric covid hospitalizations by state fully vaccination per cent, past 30 dayshttps://time.com/6092446/pediatric-covid-19-surge/ by @Jamie_Ducharme @TIMEHealth Florida, an off-the-chart outlier → https://is.gd/FNbnxK16:07
LunitaAre there any articles about less sides effects of you wait longer in between doses?16:29
LunitaOf the vaccine that is16:29
xrogaanLunita: why do you believe that a longer span of time between the two shots would lessen the side effects?16:56
xrogaanwhy would you believe*16:56
xrogaanthat is, what information would lead you to believe that?16:57
LunitaI saw some articles and people speaking about it but didn't know for sure. There were also articles saying waiting longer can actually boost your immunity.17:03
XenguyI saw the latter certainly17:04
xrogaanFrom what I understand, adverse effects are dependent on your own metabolism. That is, how you react to the foreign stuff injected into you.17:04
fooWhat is the probability of getting long-covid? Do we have a stat on that?17:05
xrogaanSome people experience no adverse effects, other are hammered.17:05
VallLunita: these two claims seem contradictory to me. I mean, stronger immunity (ie, stronger immune system reaction) would mean *more* side effects, not less.17:05
Vallfoo: I saw an article stating something like 50%.17:05
xrogaanLunita: what I know for sure is that heterogeneous vaccination raise your immunity. That means getting two shots of different vaccine.17:06
Xenguy(I keep wondering if blood type is a relevant factor in the context of COVID, but I've seen nothing written about that angle)17:06
xrogaannot at the same time, the two shots.17:07
LunitaVall: I wouldn't mind the flu like symptoms I guess I'm more concerned about the crazy ones. I got the first shot and was just a little tired. Not sure how the 2nd will feel.17:07
Vallxrogaan: or 2 shots of one vaccine, followed by a 3rd from a different one (there was a govmt published in England about that, giving a 3rd dose of pfizer to people who had taken 2 of Astrazeneca)17:08
Lunitaxrogaan: has there been anything written about how safe that is? And would you get the same side effects?17:08
Xenguyxrogaan, Interesting, that is what happened to me (totally an accident)17:08
VallLunita: crazy by its very definition, is hard to prevent/protect against.17:08
fooXenguy: yes, blood type matters.17:09
VallLunita: the best thing, I think, is to work with probabilities. Crazy means very little probability, so I would not concern me with that.17:09
fooXenguy: at least, I've seen various reports on O blood type handling it better than A blood type.17:10
Xenguyfoo, I'd love to read more about this angle, if it is relevant at all17:10
LunitaVall: I see. Wish I was a kid again. My kid is fully vaccinated and had zero symptoms with both doses lol17:10
Xenguyfoo, Oh yes, that rings a bell now17:10
Vallfoo: I've seen those too. But I think it was discussed in the context of COVID19 recovery prognosis, not long-COVID.17:10
fooI wonder if there's any chance of the vaccine negatively affecting the immune system's ability to naturally fight of infections in the long-term?17:11
fooVall: oh, was the blood-type question related to long covid? I didn't consider that17:11
XenguyLunita, For me, the 2nd jab hit harder, but really I just felt a little week for a day or so, and then I was fine again.17:11
VallLunita: LOL don't we all? :-) But then I remember being woken up at 6AM to go to school, never having serious money, never getting laid, etc ;-)17:11
LunitaXenguy: Which one did you have?17:11
LunitaVall: lolol yeah there's that too17:12
XenguyLunita, Pfizer first, Moderna second17:12
LunitaAnd they will do they for you?17:13
fooXenguy: did you ready that that was better than 2x Pfizer or 2x Moderna?17:13
foos/ready/reda17:13
fooread17:13
VallXenguy, Lunita: I got 2 doses of Pfizer. After 1st one, just some pain in the injection site. After 2nd, I felt really strange (like, spaced out) for a day, and then nothing (except injection pain site for a day or 2). Wife was the same after 1st dosis, but stayed down for 2 days with fever and tiredness.17:13
XenguyLunita, It was random (just what was available at the time)17:13
LunitaI wonder if they would do that by request17:14
VallPS: for what it's worth, my blood is type A and wife's is type O17:14
fooI'd be curious if anyone hasn't been vaccinated here and is skeptical (but not strong anti-vax) - feel free to PM me.17:15
Xenguyfoo, There were a small number of articles that suggested 2 different vaccines might be more effective, but I don't know for sure17:15
fooXenguy: yeah, I thought I saw that too17:15
Vallfolks, gotta go (some errands to run here). Will be back later, ciao y'all17:15
XenguyCiao17:16
LjLfoo, the blood type stuff is a bit dated, i don't have anything specific to show right now, but from hearsay, those studies have been discredited17:42
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Saturday 04 September 2021 Update → https://is.gd/n8coCi17:42
fooLjL: oh, thank you.17:46
xrogaanYes, there was something written about heterogeneous vaccination.18:01
fooWould you say that the vaccines of today address the underlying pathology of the virus or only the symptoms?18:36
LjLthey create antibodies that actively stop the virus from entering cells and reproducing. they do it imperfectly with Delta, and maybe even with prior variants in the airways, but to the extent they do, they definitely go to the root of what the virus does18:37
fooLjL: thank you, that might be one of the simplest explanations I've seen18:40
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: The latest on mask efficacy from the randomized trial of policy in 350,000 people from 600 villages in Bangladeshhttps://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/masks-were-working-all-along/619989/ by @DKThomp @TheAtlantic https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/09/03/real-world-evidence-shows-face-masks-reduce-covid-19s-spreadhttps://is.gd/xJPsWY18:46
LjLfunny, i read about that Bangladesh experiment yesterday, except from those Twitter accounts that Balloux's retweet led me to, and they were, of course, using the same results to conclude that masks *don't* work (and wondering how come if there is any effect, it's only in people older than 50)18:52
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: R to @EricTopol: The immune response for Prior Covid plus 1-dose vaccine (hybrid immunity) has not been beaten or matched by any 2-dose vaccine or mix/match combination to date. → https://is.gd/JVeZpG19:18
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): COVID19: Simulated Sunlight Rapidly Inactivates SARS-CoV-2 on Surfaces → https://is.gd/IPxUW720:00
-Bridgestorm- 🌒 انفجار? زلزال? Earthquake? Likely strong tremor, with 54 reports, possibly occurred 12 minutes ago (18:29:29 UTC), with a crescent moon, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia (26.36, 50.13) ± 6 km likely felt 30 km away by 100 people (Twitter)20:42
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: R to @EricTopol: To date, there are limited clinical data for Moderna vaxx waning. The UCSD HCW study this week did not report their data split out by Pfizer (55%), Moderna (45%) vaccines, but the results for symptomatic infections were similar. If we had national US data we would know now. → https://is.gd/vhId8s21:25
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: Call for clarity on vaccines for children → https://is.gd/JZvuln21:35
BrainstormNew from Eric Topol: @EricTopol: Having it 2-ways on boostersThe primary endpoint for the large, placebo-controlled covid vaccine trials was symptomatic infections (SI), a proxy for hospitalizations/deaths (H/D)With a Pfizer reduction of protection for SI at 6 months, many argue that H/D will not be affected → https://is.gd/8CaaPz21:57

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