libera/##covid-19/ Monday, 2021-10-11

BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +4649 cases (now 4.3 million), +14 deaths (now 95033) since 8 hours ago01:07
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): From England, where boosters are being given for age 50+ who are 6 months or more out from vaccination (Pfizer, Moderna, AZ) twitter.com/JamesWard73/st… → https://is.gd/XMuOiy01:23
BrainstormUpdates for Colombia: +1518 cases (now 5.0 million), +38 deaths (now 126623), +33466 tests (now 26.0 million) since a day ago — Bahrain: +57 cases (now 275654), +16511 tests (now 6.6 million) since a day ago01:31
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Only 1 vaccine program in history (Covid) went from pathogen identification to success in < 1 year.This week one vs malaria got the green light by @WHO after none for 140 yearsAn mRNA 💉 vs HIV, 38 years later, starts a major trial next monthgraph by @MaxCRoser @OurWorldInData pic.twitter.com/UpGZBEEZfU → https://is.gd/uR0o4r01:55
BrainstormUpdates for Paraguay: +13 cases (now 460203), +1793 tests (now 1.9 million) since a day ago02:09
BrainstormUpdates for Uruguay: +103 cases (now 390038), +1 deaths (now 6064), +4240 tests (now 3.7 million) since a day ago — Qatar: +65 cases (now 237424), +4811 tests (now 2.7 million) since a day ago — Zambia: +11 cases (now 209347), +1 deaths (now 3654), +3977 tests (now 2.5 million) since a day ago02:34
BrainstormUpdates for Rwanda: +98 cases (now 98697), +4 deaths (now 1308), +30394 tests (now 2.9 million) since a day ago03:11
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: After banning interstate travel since January, Malaysia to resume interstate and international travel from Monday as 90% of adult population fully vaccinated from COVID-19. → https://is.gd/mbrE3y03:29
bn_mobileAnyone know why cases are down in the US but deaths are at all time highs now?03:31
bn_mobileUsual news sources aren’t providing much insight03:32
BrainstormUpdates for Papua New Guinea: +613 cases (now 23026), +2490 tests (now 197329) since 2 days ago — Somalia: +369 cases (now 21269), +28 deaths (now 1180), +4699 tests (now 239292) since 3 days ago — Ivory Coast: +34 cases (now 60819), +7 deaths (now 666), +2489 tests (now 1.0 million) since a day ago [... want %more?]03:36
LjLbn_mobile, i don't know for sure, but i find https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+fully+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~European+Union~ITA~PRT~CZE~SVK~POL kind of a hint (note: Eastern European countries aren't doing too well with deaths right now)04:01
BrainstormUpdates for Mali: +21 cases (now 15471), +1112 tests (now 431532) since a day ago — Gambia: +2 cases (now 9941), +1 deaths (now 339), +677 tests (now 103187) since 4 days ago04:01
bn_mobileLjL:  so you think it’s due to the slowdown in vaccination rates?  I don’t see how that would affect someone that’s already in the hospital?  My understanding is it’s mostly the unvaccinated that are dying now but I guess what I don’t understand is why did it take so long to happen & why in 2021 now?04:17
bn_mobileOr you are thinking because not enough people have been vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, the ones that weren’t are now getting “picked off”?  I so, wouldn’t the rate have been higher earlier then?04:19
mambang[m]<Brainstorm> "New from r/WorldNews: worldnews:..." <- %cases malaysia04:23
mambang[m]%cases Malaysia04:23
Brainstormmambang[m]: Malaysia has had 2.3 million confirmed cases (7.1% of all people) and 27329 deaths (1.2% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 31.6 million tests were done (7.4% positive). 24.4 million were vaccinated (74.6%). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Malaysia04:23
Brainstormmambang[m]: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Malaysia, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it.04:24
mambang[m]%tell LjL https://covidnow.moh.gov.my04:26
Brainstormmambang[m], I'll pass LjL your message when they are around.04:26
BrainstormUpdates for St. Vin. and Gren.: +131 cases (now 4096), +5 deaths (now 38), +658 tests (now 80024) since 3 days ago — St. Kitts and Nevis: +42 cases (now 2403), +2 deaths (now 19) since a day ago04:38
LjLmambang[m], thanks04:59
BrainstormLjL: At 2021-10-11 02:26:58 UTC, mambang[m] told you: https://covidnow.moh.gov.my04:59
LjLbn_mobile, herd immunity isn't going to be a thing with the current vaccines. i just mean that if most deaths are among the unvaccinated, because there *are* a lot of unvaccinated, you can see cases being relatively low, and still a lot of deaths05:00
LjLin any case keep in mind deaths always show up as delayed ~2 weeks from cases05:01
LjL%cases malaysia05:01
BrainstormUpdates for Peru: +675 cases (now 2.2 million), +31 deaths (now 199672), +32283 tests (now 18.3 million) since a day ago — New Zealand: +34 cases (now 4659), +15349 tests (now 3.6 million) since a day ago05:01
BrainstormLjL: Malaysia has had 2.3 million confirmed cases (7.1% of all people) and 27329 deaths (1.2% of cases) as of 8 hours ago. 31.6 million tests were done (7.4% positive). 24.4 million were vaccinated (74.6%). See https://covidnow.moh.gov.my/05:01
bn_mobileLjL: What do you “mean herd immunity isn’t going to be a thing with the current vaccines”?05:04
bn_mobiles/“mean/mean “/05:04
LjLbn_mobile, herd immunity is based on the assumption most people actually become immune to an extent that they *do not* transmit the virus to others (roughly the same as sterile immunity). this just isn't happening with the current vaccines and with Delta, vaccinated people can infect others. so the herd immunity threshold is >100%05:05
LjLwe'll need Delta-specific vaccines05:06
bn_mobileThe thing is there was more unvaccinated earlier so if anything the #s should have been higher.  It doesn’t make sense that #s now are even worse than in 2020?05:06
LjLbn_mobile, i don't know, the US is big and complex, but i look at http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US&cumulative=no&smooth=yes and i see cases are going down, and deaths are also going down. they're lagging behind compared to cases, but they're going down. why are they higher vs cases than last wave? because last wave wasn't Delta. the latest paper about this says Delta has 230% the chances of getting you into ICU than the original variant05:08
bn_mobileYou’re saying there’s 0 difference in the amount of virus carried by vaccinated vs unvaccinated, in re. to being a carrier ?  Surely, when one is vaccinated, one is less likely to carry it?05:09
bn_mobileI guess the only way this is possible is if like you’re saying, this new largest wave of deaths is due to the delta variant that only recently reached the US05:11
LjLbn_mobile, you're less likely to carry it, but nowhere near "95%" less, more like 50% less at best. if you do carry it, then the viral load has been found (approximated by Ct) to be roughly equal to people who are unvaccinated, although it doesn't last as long05:11
LjLi don't like how long the rhetoric in the US has been "99% of the hospitalized are unvaccinated!" because that was only true if you counted numbers that were way pre-Delta. with Delta, Europe and other places clearly showed that was NOT true. and, sure, it was a way to tell people to get vaccinated, which is a good thing to tell them... but never, in my opinion, by lying05:13
LjLwith this let's call it "massaged truth", people like you are now confused, and people who are already skeptical of vaccines are going to see "see? they don't work, and they lied"05:13
LjLthe reality is they do work, but not nearly as well as we had hoped, since Delta arrived, and also that Delta is generally much worse05:13
bn_mobileBut the # of people that got vaccinated pre-Delta & still got infected, ie: “breakthrough infection “ is a minority though I thought?05:22
LjLuh, who *got infected* pre-Delta, yeah05:22
LjLbut if they got infected post-Delta (i.e. by delta), their being vaccinated... sure, it still helps, but there are *many* breakthrough infections05:22
bn_mobilewell, that too but I meant got infected with Delta05:23
LjLit depends on what you mean by a minority05:23
LjLliterally less than 50% of them? probably05:23
LjLi mean, certainly05:23
bn_mobileYes05:23
LjLbut they are a sizable percentage of the infected05:24
LjLit's not like among the infected, 95% are unvaccinated, and 5% are vaccinated05:24
LjLnot if you look at Delta timeframes anyway05:24
bn_mobileMy point being that the pre-Delta vaccines still kinda help against Delta (but only by making the effects less severe)05:25
LjLsure05:26
bn_mobileSo if the effects are less severe, that means most likely less deaths in that vaccinated group05:28
specingI'm surprised that we dont have delta vaccines yet05:29
bn_mobileThey are starting to have boosters here I thought?05:29
LjLspecing, i mostly thank Pfizer05:29
LjLbn_mobile, yes less deaths but not *dramatically* less deaths05:29
LjLbn_mobile, also keep in mind social factors. it's possible that people who are fully vaccinated are less likely to take an "official" test and be reported as positives, simply because they don't believe it can be COVID since they're fully vaccinated05:30
LjLbut if they get worse and die, well, *that* gets recorded05:30
bn_mobileI dunno, I would think those that do get vaccinated are people who obviously followed the science & perhaps know it’s not bulletproof?05:32
LjLthat's a big assumption. despite having fewer vaccinated people than other countries, you still have a *massive* percentage of the population vaccinated in the US. i assume most of them just did what they were told but don't exactly join this channel and get the "99%" myths debunked05:33
LjLalso, i think we should look at individual states05:34
bn_mobileI guess maybe there are those that think it’s 💯 % armor & are just complying 🤷‍♂️05:34
LjLin some, the situation is bad enough the healthcare system got swamped again05:34
LjLthat definitely causes more deaths even despite relatively fewer cases05:34
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +33638 cases (now 8.2 million) since 14 hours ago — Netherlands: +2281 cases (now 2.1 million) since 18 hours ago05:36
bn_mobileIs the CDC or other sites tracking which variant is the cause of death?05:36
bn_mobileYeah, you’re right, it could be influenced by the amount of healthcare services in one’s area.05:38
LjLi don't know of anything that tracks variants as the cause of death05:38
LjLin general variants are not very well tracked in most countries05:38
LjLthey are not sequenced from a random sample05:39
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Covid Mutants – Science To The Rescue | A frontline nurse in the U.K. recounts a nightmare year of battling successive waves of the coronavirus made worse by the new variant. → https://is.gd/wKPAx506:27
BrainstormUpdates for India: +18132 cases (now 34.0 million), +2319009 tests (now 583.6 million) since 23 hours ago06:38
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: ‘Freedom Day’: Sydney reopens as Australia looks to live with COVID-19 → https://is.gd/BMZtTV06:48
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19 Australia: NSW lockdown ends after 106 days → https://is.gd/ZnL1Wa06:58
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US-Taliban talks conclude, Sydney reopens after 107 days: 5 overnight developments from around the globe → https://is.gd/60tx8J07:20
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Zealand braces for rising Covid cases as expert warns of potential explosion → https://is.gd/AnznZZ07:30
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Over 90% of Malaysia's adult population fully vaccinated against Covid-19 → https://is.gd/qIXHEu07:40
BrainstormUpdates for Lombardy, Italy: +278 cases (now 886807), +2 deaths (now 34085) since a day ago07:41
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Massive EU study shows vaccines prevent severe COVID illness, even from Delta variant → https://is.gd/cmpOm707:51
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Jeff Bezos Ex-Wife Mackenzie Scott donates 1.7 Billion to HBCU’s, 2.7 Billion to Charities and Covid Relief → https://is.gd/AdLiou08:12
ZdrytchX.cases victoria08:35
BrainstormZdrytchX: Victoria, Australia has had 54470 confirmed cases (0.8% of all people) and 913 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 54 minutes ago. 69000 tests were done (78.9% positive). +1568 cases, +8 deaths since a day ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Victoria08:35
BrainstormZdrytchX: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Victoria, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it.08:35
ZdrytchX.cases australia08:36
BrainstormZdrytchX: Australia has had 129567 confirmed cases (0.5% of all people) and 1448 deaths (1.1% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 39.9 million tests were done (0.3% positive). 17.7 million were vaccinated (68.8%). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia08:36
BrainstormZdrytchX: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Australia, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it.08:36
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | October 11, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/gtxO5o09:05
BrainstormUpdates for Taiwan: +11 cases (now 16305), +20719 tests (now 6.8 million) since 22 hours ago09:08
BrainstormNew from Science-Based Medicine: Ivermectin is the new hydroxychloroquine, take 6: Incompetence and fraud everywhere!: Ivermectin is the new hydroxychloroquine, a drug repurposed for COVID-19 that almost certainly doesn't work but is being touted as a "miracle cure" by quacks, grifters, and political ideologues. Are the data it all fraud? The post  [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/z9fOe609:15
BrainstormUpdates for Czechia: +335 cases (now 1.7 million), +3 deaths (now 30504), +30511 tests (now 38.9 million) since 23 hours ago09:32
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Significant proportions of people admitted to hospital, or dying from covid-19 in England are vaccinated—this doesn’t mean the vaccines don’t workblogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/08/25… → https://is.gd/ugtbRB09:47
BrainstormUpdates for Hungary: +2046 cases (now 829456), +28 deaths (now 30303), +39373 tests (now 7.1 million) since 3 days ago10:10
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Opinion: Health disparities for Filipinxs in health care are disguised by data aggregation: Why has the impact of Covid-19 on Filipinx and other Asian communities been ignored even though they make up one of the fastest growing racial groups in the U.S.? → https://is.gd/wZx8EU10:50
BrainstormUpdates for Austria: +1320 cases (now 762538), +10 deaths (now 11106), +236189 tests (now 90.6 million) since 22 hours ago11:00
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Russia STOLE the blueprint for the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab, security sources tell ministers → https://is.gd/TfiMkQ11:00
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Latest posts: Serratus: The ultra-deep search to discover novel coronaviruses: Serratus Project Updates Ribovirus classification by a polymerase barcode sequence Palmprint preprint RNA viruses encoding a polymerase gene (riboviruses) dominate the known eukaryotic virome. Next-generation sequencing is revealing a wealth of new [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/5LKEFh11:21
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Russian spy 'stole blueprint for AstraZeneca vaccine to make Sputnik jab' → https://is.gd/Qh7O9G11:32
BrainstormUpdates for Russia: +29409 cases (now 7.8 million), +957 deaths (now 217372), +400000 tests (now 197.2 million) since a day ago11:37
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Prof Francois Balloux (@BallouxFrancois): I feel it would be worthwhile investigating further the potential for LFT cross-reactivity between SARSCoV2 and endemic HCoVs. While somewhat unlikely, this remains a far more plausible hypothesis to me than an increase in PCR false-negatives due to recent SARSCoV2 evolution.4/ → https://is.gd/3ZK8uI11:43
BrainstormUpdates for Finland: +1618 cases (now 147297), +4 deaths (now 1100), +14894 tests (now 7.2 million) since 2 days ago — Latvia: +1002 cases (now 172278), +5 deaths (now 2806), +6613 vaccines (now 957370), +7847 tests (now 4.6 million) since 23 hours ago — Poland: +903 cases (now 2.9 million), +21213 tests (now 21.3 million) since 23 hours ago [... want %more?]12:02
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Wales NHS Covid passes become compulsory → https://is.gd/YeKtZi12:46
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: AP News: Merck asks US FDA to authorize promising anti-COVID pill → https://is.gd/KBi2or12:56
de-facto[m].title https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/08/25/significant-proportions-of-people-admitted-to-hospital-or-dying-from-covid-19-in-england-are-vaccinated-this-doesnt-mean-the-vaccines-dont-work/13:02
Brainstormde-facto[m]: From blogs.bmj.com: Significant proportions of people admitted to hospital, or dying from covid-19 in England are vaccinated—this doesn’t mean the vaccines don’t work - The BMJ13:02
de-facto[m]good explanation of how vaccination rates and vaccine efficacy influences proportions of observed breakthrough cases illustrated with examples13:03
BrainstormUpdates for Nepal: +663 cases (now 802861), +12 deaths (now 11243), +7233 tests (now 4.3 million) since 21 hours ago — UAE: +124 cases (now 737890), +1 deaths (now 2114), +276637 tests (now 87.2 million) since 23 hours ago13:04
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspend use of Moderna vaccine in young people “as a precaution”: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspended the use of Moderna’s covid-19 vaccine on 7 October after reports of possible rare side effects.The pause “for precautionary reasons” in Sweden and Finland... → https://is.gd/Z8nuKG13:28
BrainstormUpdates for Laos: +309 cases (now 28849), +4 deaths (now 30), +3600 tests (now 527790) since a day ago — Brunei: +187 cases (now 9167), +3552 tests (now 406629) since 22 hours ago — Senegal: +4 cases (now 73841), +1429 tests (now 815169) since 10 hours ago13:29
BrainstormUpdates for Indonesia: +620 cases (now 4.2 million), +65 deaths (now 142716), +225083 tests (now 41.8 million) since a day ago — Bangladesh: +599 cases (now 1.6 million), +11 deaths (now 27699), +23193 tests (now 10.0 million) since 23 hours ago14:31
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: AstraZeneca drug cocktail succeeds in late-stage study to treat Covid-19 → https://is.gd/j5nUcS14:54
BrainstormNew from Politico: Afghanistan war: ‘The president’s decline is alarming’: Biden trapped in coronavirus malaise → https://is.gd/Un4Xno15:05
imaginary.title https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/144755003658214196015:13
Brainstormimaginary: From twitter.com: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "2. When the number of people vaccinated far exceeds the resident population, which helps explain the Florida outlier issue (% vaccinated vs death rate)" | 42l - nitter15:13
imaginaryi had been wondering about this. if US stats were being padded using "vaccine vacation" rates15:13
imaginaryfor a while i've suspected that the US vaccination rates might be even lower than reported :(15:13
BrainstormNew from EMA: Human medicine assessment reports: (news): Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Trumenba, meningococcal group b vaccine (recombinant, adsorbed), Meningitis, Meningococcal, Date of authorisation: 24/05/2017, Revision: 11, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/Z4x9GW15:15
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Our covid times :-) pic.twitter.com/w4iYmqXU48 → https://is.gd/iu8gKz15:26
BrainstormUpdates for Belarus: +1943 cases (now 559715), +15 deaths (now 4304), +28844 tests (now 8.9 million) since a day ago15:33
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The Phase 3 randomized trial of the @Novavax protein vaccine in ~30,000 participants (2:1 randomization) in the US and Mexico with overall efficacy >90% vs symptomatic infectionsmedrxiv.org/content/10.110…new @medrxivpreprint pic.twitter.com/xTYoC6t1hM → https://is.gd/IJXpiE15:37
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Singapore expands quarantine-free travel to eight countries, India not on list → https://is.gd/A0gEqf16:10
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +2261 cases (now 850679), +6 deaths (now 11139), +99250 tests (now 11.2 million) since 2 days ago — Uganda: +90 cases (now 124736), +1 deaths (now 3177), +4683 tests (now 1.7 million) since 23 hours ago — Saudi Arabia: +58 cases (now 547649), +3 deaths (now 8748), +48355 tests (now 29.4 million) since 23 hours ago [... want %more?]16:10
BrainstormUpdates for San Marino: +4 cases (now 5470), +865 tests (now 80733) since 2 days ago16:29
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Prof Francois Balloux (@BallouxFrancois): To clarify, while there seems to have been a recent increase of LFT+/PCR- cases reported in the UK, this remains a tiny fraction of all cases. Thus, whatever the causes behind a potential increase in 'LFT false positives', this doesn't drive changes in case numbers in the UK.5/ → https://is.gd/X1XBgn16:31
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Latest topics: Putative host origins of RNA insertions in SARS-CoV-2 genomes: Thomas P. Peacock 1 *, David L. V. Bauer 2 , Wendy S. Barclay 1 1 Department of Infectious Disease, St Marys Medical School, Imperial College London, UK. 2 The RNA Virus Replication Laboratory, The Francis Crick Institute, London, UK. *corresponding [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/WG8PIT16:42
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: Monoclonal Antibodies Effective Against COVID-19 in Native American Patients: No ICU admissions or deaths were reported among Native American patients treated with monoclonal antibodies for COVID-19 in a recent study. → https://is.gd/Usu8QZ17:03
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +3368 cases (now 4.3 million), +12 deaths (now 95041) since 19 hours ago — India: +13741 cases (now 34.0 million), +129 deaths (now 450828) since 23 hours ago17:06
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Antibody levels fall after second Pfizer dose, but protection against severe disease remains, studies indicate: Six months after the second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech covid-19 vaccine, antibody concentrations in healthcare workers had decreased substantially, especially among older men and immunosuppressed... → https://is.gd/OD3BJd17:14
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Monday 11 October 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/tVzamn17:25
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +2726 cases (now 2.1 million), +5 deaths (now 18635) since 23 hours ago — Jordan: +1307 cases (now 834778), +7 deaths (now 10818), +32511 tests (now 10.4 million) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +77 cases (now 8.2 million) since 21 hours ago17:31
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Acetylsalicylic Acid in COVID-19 (ASA-SARS) → https://is.gd/E5OG6v17:36
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Burden of Care of Long COVID Patients After Hospital Discharge → https://is.gd/4u2D2J17:46
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Just published @Nature Impact of variants, including Delta (B.1.617.2), on neutralizing antibody levels in vaccinated health care workers, with or w/o prior Covidnature.com/articles/s4158…@VirusesImmunity @YaleIBIO @carolilucasSupport for 💉boosters in people w/o prior infection pic.twitter.com/zj84P0mkRk → https://is.gd/DVnnfV18:08
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Is the worst of the US pandemic over? The good news is the 20% reduction cases and hospitalizations in the past 2 weeks, but the levels are still very high. And there's a shift in where deaths are occurring.ft.com/content/55a8e7… graph by @caitlinsgilbert @FT@JamieSmythF pic.twitter.com/CEPUoT5bZm → https://is.gd/iE4yRa18:29
BrainstormUpdates for Greece: +2358 cases (now 679157), +42 deaths (now 15177), +72843 tests (now 22.1 million) since a day ago — Italy: +1516 cases (now 4.7 million), +34 deaths (now 131335), +114776 tests (now 95.4 million) since a day ago — Switzerland: +5 cases (now 850684) since 2 hours ago18:33
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Despite Scares from COVID Vaccine, Mammograms Still Vital: We’ve known for months now that COVID-19 vaccines can cause a reaction that may give women a breast cancer scare. But, scientists and doctors say, mammograms remain as important as ever. → https://is.gd/04RQcp18:50
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +3829 cases (now 5.0 million), +49 deaths (now 86827) since 2 days ago19:11
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +1284 cases (now 1.7 million) since 23 hours ago19:36
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): NEW: people obsess over vaccine uptake stats, eagerly comparing one country to others to see which has jabbed the highest share of its population, but what if I told you many — perhaps most — of those stats are wrong?Time for a thread on bad Covid data and how it can cost lives → https://is.gd/NPL9oB19:43
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Three different post-Delta wave patterns in countries with high vaccination rates, relative to the US (examples)1.  Full descent (to date): UAE, Spain, Portugal2. Unsteady: UK, Denmark (at very different case levels)3. Flare-up: Singapore@OurWorldInData pic.twitter.com/pisYLwWTbi → https://is.gd/p6pn1W20:25
BrainstormUpdates for India: +13173 cases (now 34.0 million), +177 deaths (now 450991) since 23 hours ago20:38
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +2812 cases (now 4.3 million), +33 deaths (now 95066) since 20 hours ago21:40
IndoAnonde-facto:21:42
IndoAnonhttps://archive.is/2x8r0 https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Category/MPage/Q8n9n-Q4aBpRrGnKVGFkng https://www.cdc.gov.tw/File/Get/fYeIuZLIgN7QW7Jw3uZSVg https://files.catbox.moe/146x41.pdf21:43
IndoAnon>According to a “Notice of Adverse Events after COVID-19 Vaccination” issued by Taiwan’s health department, on March 22 this year, Taiwan began vaccination. From that day to October 6, the death toll after vaccination in Taiwan has reached 849.21:43
IndoAnon>As of the 6th, since the epidemic, the number of deaths due to the confirmed COVID-19 in Taiwan was 844. This is the first time that the number of deaths after vaccination has exceeded the number of confirmed deaths.21:44
de-factohmm is it a classic "the more vaccinated the more cases emerge from the majority of vaccinated" kind of scenario?21:51
de-factoalso it always has to be seen relative to the total number of infections, otherwise such absolute numbers dont make sense21:52
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The hope for the US is to follow pattern 1, but the reality is more likely to be 2, owing to fully vaccinated rate 56%, compared with countries up to 30 per cent points higher (examples in pattern 1) of their total population pic.twitter.com/rn2zVPsUPq → https://is.gd/e8UQ9L21:58
IndoAnonIf we assume that there's 17M people on the islands who received at least one dose, the number sits at 850 now. That's ratio of 1 to 2000022:01
LjLIndoAnon, what is the expected death toll "after vaccination" (however that is defined) if vaccination resulted in *no* adverse effects?22:01
LjL849 tells me nothing22:02
IndoAnonI'm really patient22:03
LjLde-facto, i don't think he's talking about infections22:04
LjLi can't read Chinese but that thing mentions VAERS22:04
LjLso this is probably about deaths reported to VAERS at some point after vaccination22:04
de-factooh i did not read the links (as i dont understand the language)22:04
IndoAnonLjL: Obviously, I'm not clever enough to make realistic simulation to get the death count without any """vaccine"""22:07
aannsingapore is @ 80%, and yet had a major outbreak22:07
IndoAnonalso, 50log10= ~1.622:08
aannapparently Fauci is saying the US is plateau'ing with a high death rate, and may stay there22:08
IndoAnonaann: that's because they open school back in june. I think they're unable to contact trace... Oh well, this site is not up to date, but it has good graph https://covid.viz.sg22:10
de-factohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_Taiwan Oxford-AstraZeneca: 9941380; Moderna: 4867954; Medigen Biologics: 1274105; Pfizer-BioNTech 180402622:17
IndoAnonAZN is the worst 1  deaths in 15.3K22:18
IndoAnon*death22:18
de-factothat sounds odd, i dont think UK got such stats22:20
IndoAnonI agree, it must be faulty batch22:20
de-factowhere do you see that numbers?22:20
IndoAnonhttps://files.catbox.moe/146x41.pdf22:20
IndoAnonhttps://www.cdc.gov.tw/File/Get/fYeIuZLIgN7QW7Jw3uZSVg22:20
IndoAnonThe ratio? Using calculator22:21
de-factohmm damn is there a translator for pdfs?22:22
de-factoi cant read that22:22
IndoAnon死 is death22:22
IndoAnonThe translation is https://archive.is/2x8r022:23
de-factohmm that dosing errors sounds scary22:27
de-facto"She mentioned that recently, some hospitals in Taiwan have reported that 25 people were vaccinated with undiluted vaccine stock solution, or the vaccination dose was insufficient."22:27
BrainstormUpdates for Dominican Rep.: +633 cases (now 366191), +4351 tests (now 2.1 million) since a day ago — Kuwait: +42 cases (now 412121), +1 deaths (now 2455), +21267 tests (now 4.5 million) since a day ago22:30
de-factoi dont know what to think about that, i cant read the original document in chinese without translator and the translator refuses that pdf22:31
IndoAnonjust copy it bit by bit, de-facto22:31
IndoAnonthe important stuff is on the table22:31
de-factouuuff thats a lot of work though22:32
de-factowhy cant that damn google translate work on that pdf?22:32
IndoAnonIdk lol22:35
de-factoi even uploaded it somewhere else and pointed google translate to it "Can't translate this page" well yeah thanks22:36
de-factoyeah i think we need to read the *whole* thing to get an appropriate picture22:40
de-factowithout it being fully translated i cant say anything22:40
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: News Scan for Oct 11, 2021: Mental disorders and COVID death COVID-19 monoclonal antibody treatment CWD halts MN deer farm movement Seafood Salmonella outbreak → https://is.gd/fWo0i022:41
IndoAnonUh, okay22:43
IndoAnonhttps://bpa.st/7Q3A22:43
LjLIndoAnon, scarequoting "vaccine" will get you nowhere fast here. anyway as to https://archive.is/2021.10.11-174502/https://medicaltrend.org/2021/10/10/taiwan-death-from-covid-19-vaccination-exceeds-death-from-covid-19/ i note that the first two paragraph talk about death "from" COVID-19 vaccination, then in the third paragraph where it actually mentions data, it turns into death "after" vaccination and it seems designed not to make the reader notice that.22:52
LjLthat's a pretty typical hallmark of needing to dig deeper.22:52
IndoAnonLjL, https://bpa.st/7Q3A22:59
de-factowe need the whole document as it describes what they list there22:59
IndoAnonHmm, you haven't translated it?23:00
pwr22 Is this more of these out of context revelations again?23:01
de-factoi cant speak Chinese23:01
Arsaneriteverybody who gets the vaccine dies after vaccination.  Some people who make a vaccine appointment die before vaccination.  Maybe even in traffic on the way to the vaccination centre.23:01
ArsaneritShould I get the Grippeschutsimpfung?  Last year I did but it turned out the disease was completely cancelled.23:01
LjLthe one thing you may, tentatively, look at in that table is how the ratios differ by vaccine23:01
pwr22That document looks terribly formatted23:01
LjLsince we don't know what the baseline "death after vaccine" is (especially if "after" is ill-defined), that's the most you can do23:02
de-factoi suspect it includes breakthrough covid deaths but i cant know for sure without reading the rest23:02
LjLdoes AZ seem to give a higher death ratio than Moderna or whatever? that may be meaningful to some extent, although it may also be tainted by people's perceptions about the various vaccine, and so the propensity to report a death as related to the vaccine or not23:02
pwr22de-facto: last time I humoured IndoAnon a lot and eventually they gave a CDC doc that said the opposite of what they were suggesting23:02
LjLalthough with deaths, hopefully, that bias should be minimal23:02
pwr22I.e. adverse events from mRNA vaccines was very low23:03
pwr22I think we can short circuit the patience this time23:03
Arsaneritwasn't the AZ vaccine available earlier than the others, such that countries that started with the most frail people will have mostly used that vaccine at first?23:04
pwr22IndoAnon: discussion is fine, even of more fringe stuff as long as it's a reasonable discussion, but dropping terse thin slices of information as "the truth" and kind of acting slightly smug and aloof and refusing to actually discuss things logically isn't23:04
de-factohere you go, i translated it for you IndoAnon https://ctxt-io.translate.goog/2/AABgDKR_Eg?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=nui23:07
de-facto"These notification events occurred sequentially after vaccination,23:08
de-factoBut it does not mean that it is caused by vaccination."23:08
LjLIndoAnon, so i did the maths (thankfully i can do it from the original table because i can read 死 indeed, while i'm not smart enough to parse the translation you gave) and i don't really know what to make of it. Moderna seems to have a slightly higher rate than AZ, 高端 a lower rate but it also was given to very few people so i'm not sure it's statistically valid, while it would seem that Pfizer somehow has a minuscule rate compared to the others?23:08
LjLde-facto, so, "whenever someone felt like reporting them to VAERS, under their own discretion of whether it warranted a vaccine-related death report"23:09
IndoAnonhttps://bpa.st/T4RQ23:10
IndoAnonWell, LjL, I use translator.23:10
LjLsure, but the formatting makes it very hard to read23:11
LjLanyway i made the proportions from the original table23:11
LjLi don't know what i should make of this. there isn't even a specified timeframe for "after"...?23:11
LjLthe first paragraph specifies the caveats quite clearly, and they are big caveats23:12
LjLmost of what i can infer from all of this is that chinese is so much more condensed than english23:12
IndoAnonPwr22, contradicting views exists. Thus, there's no consensus23:12
de-facto"The number of reported deaths (reported value) of men and women of each age group for the brand and individual brands is not higher than the expected number of deaths (background expectations) value)."23:12
LjLthere may be no consensus, but you seem to be using these data to hint at the opposite of what, say, de-facto has just stated23:13
LjLwhich was pretty much my initial question23:13
de-factowhat does that mean? they counted all deaths that ever occured in any vaccinated due to whatever reason?23:13
de-factoand compared that to the expectation value of non-vaccinated?23:13
LjLde-facto, it's VAERS. they count whatever people report.23:13
LjLi thought my mom's dizziness seemed suspiciously correlated with the vaccine, i reported it23:14
LjLit was my call, basically23:14
de-factoyeah23:14
IndoAnonWhile what de-facto quoted is rightfully the statement from CDC TW, I still think it's not satisfactory to the golden standard23:17
de-factogiven the numbers in the text (without any context) AZ 644/9679229 ~ 1/15030; Moderna 183/4827495 ~ 1/26379; High-End 22/1262609 ~ 1/57391; BioNTech: 1/177225823:21
pwr22<IndoAnon> "Peter, contradicting views..." <- I don't see how that relates to what I said?23:21
de-factothat does not make too much sense to me, e.g. why would Moderna and BioNTech be that different?23:21
LjLIndoAnon, indeed, the gold standard is a randomized controlled trial, and those were done23:22
LjLusgh23:22
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: French study of over 22m people finds vaccines cut severe Covid risk by 90% → https://is.gd/AwFrCV23:23
de-factoi dont think BNT/Moderna ~ 1/67 is realistic they should be quite similar23:23
de-factolets look at their incidence curve23:24
de-factothey got a peak in 2021-05-11 -> 2021-07-1123:25
de-factohttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/taiwan/23:25
de-factoDeployment of vaccine: Moderna since 2021-06-09 and BNT since 2021-09-2223:27
de-factoso that looks to me as if fatal covid outcomes are also included in those deaths reported there23:28
de-factoe.g. they started with BNT after their COVID wave hence got very low number of deaths reported in that group23:29
de-factowhta do you guys think?23:29
IndoAnonBut, medigen also start being deployed after 23th of August23:30
LjLi don't know, maybe, i just know those numbers are patently unreliable23:30
de-factoCOVID fatalities in TW were mainly between 2021-05-22 -> 2021-07-3123:30
LjLit's not like there is a puzzle to solve here, these numbers *are not expected* to be meaningful23:30
IndoAnonOh wait23:31
de-factoyeah those are absolute *raw* numbers they are *not* linked to a cause or normalized by background expectation values23:31
IndoAnonIt's only 20 days since they start using BNT, I guess that's the appropriate reason23:32
BrainstormUpdates for Maldives: +74 cases (now 85622), +246 vaccines (now 393133), +3312 tests (now 1.5 million) since a day ago — Malawi: +3 cases (now 61679), +20488 vaccines (now 867591), +890 tests (now 415561) since a day ago23:32
LjLalso you missed what i said because you had quit: IndoAnon, indeed, the gold standard is a randomized controlled trial, and those were done23:32
LjLthese numbers are being used to *confirm* there is no "safety signal" i.e. the numbers are compatible with naturally expected deaths23:33
de-factohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_Taiwan#Vaccine_orders_and_arrival23:33
LjLyou can't accuse them of not being the "gold standard" because they are not supposed to be, they cannot be23:33
Arsaneritvaccinated ppl are not immortal23:33
LjLthere *are expected* to be deaths after being vaccinated, but that article you linked in english, and, honestly, yourself, are using that expected reality and distoring it to mean that they have to be deaths "from" the vaccine23:34
LjLthat is not honest and the onus of proving this is not bullshit is on you / the article / whoever claims they're deaths from the vaccine, not the researchers whose job is to make sure these deaths are compatible with natural deaths i.e. there is no safety signal to be looked at23:35
de-factothey explicitly say its not from vaccine: "These notification events occurred sequentially after vaccination,  But it does not mean that it is caused by vaccination."23:35
IndoAnons/vaccination/corona23:36
de-factoand to be clear, above ratios i pasted are *not* normalized, because they are about different time windows, with different incidence, probably with different age groups etc23:36
LjLyes, sure, it may be caused by neither, it may be caused by a heart attack that was going to happen regardless of vaccines and regardless of corona23:36
LjLthat is the point of comparing it with natural incidence23:37
IndoAnonYeah23:38
IndoAnonI think someone should calculate the chances of developing X conditions after corona or a jab or two or three... However, I think I recall something in the past23:39
de-factohonestly i would be surprised to see different adverse event rates in TW due to no reason, those are the same vaccines23:41
LjLit's very difficult. as you said there is a "gold standard" and that's RCTs, but RCTs on rare effects are very hard to do. doing it based on things like VAERS is basically impossible23:41
IndoAnonhttps://files.catbox.moe/hrlnzg.png23:41
LjLIndoAnon, you've shown that before, i don't remember if i already pointed out that the p-value there in the thing you've highlighted says it's *not* statistically meaningful23:42
IndoAnonStill, a signal23:42
LjLno23:43
LjLthat's literally the opposite of what "a signal" means23:43
LjLthe VERY LINE says "Signal: no"23:43
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: Merck applies for approval of first COVID-19 antiviral pill: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Oct 11, 2021 Emergency use authorization would be for treating mild to moderate COVID in adults at risk for severe disease. → https://is.gd/HAkWag23:44
LjLit also explains what they mean by signal, because it's standard to use p < 0.05 but when you have many events, you cannot just use that, you must account for many-event probability23:44
IndoAnonIf it's the case, then why FDA add warning label?23:46
IndoAnonIs it statistically insignificant data found to be significant?23:47
LjLdid they now?23:47
LjLCVST is warned about in Europe for AstraZeneca23:47
LjLthat table is about mRNA vaccines23:47
LjLAstraZeneca is not an mRNA vaccine23:47
LjLthat table in America likely pertains to Pfizer and Moderna23:47
IndoAnonhttps://news.yahoo.com/know-guillain-barr-syndrome-johnson-221200868.html23:48
IndoAnon>The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced on July 12 that it is updating the label on the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine to include a warning about the risk of developing Guillain-Barré syndrome, (GBS) a rare and sometimes deadly autoimmune disorder in which the body attacks and damages nerves, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).23:48
LjLokay are we talking about CVST, which is what you've highlighted, or GBS?23:48
LjLmy head is spinning as the goalposts are moving23:48
IndoAnonOn that table, that's 0.88723:49
IndoAnonHey23:49
LjLif they added a warning about GBS, they probably had a signal about GBS23:49
LjLthat signal is, however, not in that table23:49
LjLin that table, the occurrence of GBS *with* the vaccine is *lower* than in the control subjects (although those are also vaccinated, probably to control for COVID effects)23:49
IndoAnonthat's news from 21 July 202123:50
IndoAnonwhile the slide came from this https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-08-30/04-COVID-Klein-508.pdf23:50
LjLso what? let's determine what we're talking about here. you linked to a table. you're saying CVST is bad because its occurrence relative to controls >1, and you highlighted that. in the same table, GBS is <123:50
LjLso what's bad, >1 or <1?23:51
pwr22<IndoAnon> "https://files.catbox.moe/hrlnzg..." <- That's from the CDC document that does not agree with there being a signal!23:51
LjLor are you just grasping at straws?23:51
IndoAnonNope23:51
pwr22Yes, it is because I remember it precisely23:51
pwr22I looked at that document in great detail whilst being patient with your "data" last time23:51
LjLthis is not an honest debate, at every single step you're hiding a glaring mistake in plain sight23:51
LjLare you testing us?23:51
IndoAnonThat's silly23:52
IndoAnonLet's review the premises shall we?23:52
LjLthat's what i just said23:52
LjLdon't try to appropriate it23:52
LjLLjL> so what? let's determine what we're talking about here.23:52
IndoAnonOk, then we have something in common23:53
pwr22IndoAnon: there is literally overwhelming data coming out the woodwork that shows that the vaccines are a huge net good23:53
IndoAnonIf the p value should be >0.05 to be statistical significant23:53
IndoAnons/if/23:54
pwr22You have not really provided any decent data and are generally cherry picking, taking things out of context and misrepresenting them (accidentally or intentionally I don't know)23:54
IndoAnonGBS aren't statistically significant (0.887)23:55
pwr22You haven't actually provided any good evidence of that except some random copy pasted thing23:55
pwr22Please link to them and discuss them reasonably if so23:56
IndoAnonIs it random?23:56
IndoAnonhttps://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-08-30/04-COVID-Klein-508.pdf https://news.yahoo.com/know-guillain-barr-syndrome-johnson-221200868.html23:56
pwr22We are all people here and tbh I think people are having enough with your style of discussion here from what I can see23:56
pwr22We don't have to entertain your beliefs infinitely23:56
pwr22https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-08-30/04-COVID-Klein-508.pdf is nothing to do with GBS23:57
pwr22And categorically does not support your premise23:57
pwr22We had a very detailed discussion about it before23:57
pwr22Some time towards the end of september iirc23:57
pwr22From the second link - which is just about a warning btw - there are warnings for anything that anyone gets whilst taking a medication - "However, the FDA notes there isn’t enough data to prove that the vaccine actually causes Guillain-Barré syndrome."23:59
IndoAnonIf p value < 0.05, then it's statistically significant. If it's statistically significant, then FDA would warned /labeled it. Given p value 0.887 and FDA give a warning, is it logically sensible23:59

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