Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +4649 cases (now 4.3 million), +14 deaths (now 95033) since 8 hours ago | 01:07 |
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Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): From England, where boosters are being given for age 50+ who are 6 months or more out from vaccination (Pfizer, Moderna, AZ) twitter.com/JamesWard73/st… → https://is.gd/XMuOiy | 01:23 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Colombia: +1518 cases (now 5.0 million), +38 deaths (now 126623), +33466 tests (now 26.0 million) since a day ago — Bahrain: +57 cases (now 275654), +16511 tests (now 6.6 million) since a day ago | 01:31 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Only 1 vaccine program in history (Covid) went from pathogen identification to success in < 1 year.This week one vs malaria got the green light by @WHO after none for 140 yearsAn mRNA 💉 vs HIV, 38 years later, starts a major trial next monthgraph by @MaxCRoser @OurWorldInData pic.twitter.com/UpGZBEEZfU → https://is.gd/uR0o4r | 01:55 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Paraguay: +13 cases (now 460203), +1793 tests (now 1.9 million) since a day ago | 02:09 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Uruguay: +103 cases (now 390038), +1 deaths (now 6064), +4240 tests (now 3.7 million) since a day ago — Qatar: +65 cases (now 237424), +4811 tests (now 2.7 million) since a day ago — Zambia: +11 cases (now 209347), +1 deaths (now 3654), +3977 tests (now 2.5 million) since a day ago | 02:34 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Rwanda: +98 cases (now 98697), +4 deaths (now 1308), +30394 tests (now 2.9 million) since a day ago | 03:11 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: After banning interstate travel since January, Malaysia to resume interstate and international travel from Monday as 90% of adult population fully vaccinated from COVID-19. → https://is.gd/mbrE3y | 03:29 |
bn_mobile | Anyone know why cases are down in the US but deaths are at all time highs now? | 03:31 |
bn_mobile | Usual news sources aren’t providing much insight | 03:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Papua New Guinea: +613 cases (now 23026), +2490 tests (now 197329) since 2 days ago — Somalia: +369 cases (now 21269), +28 deaths (now 1180), +4699 tests (now 239292) since 3 days ago — Ivory Coast: +34 cases (now 60819), +7 deaths (now 666), +2489 tests (now 1.0 million) since a day ago [... want %more?] | 03:36 |
LjL | bn_mobile, i don't know for sure, but i find https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+fully+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~European+Union~ITA~PRT~CZE~SVK~POL kind of a hint (note: Eastern European countries aren't doing too well with deaths right now) | 04:01 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Mali: +21 cases (now 15471), +1112 tests (now 431532) since a day ago — Gambia: +2 cases (now 9941), +1 deaths (now 339), +677 tests (now 103187) since 4 days ago | 04:01 |
bn_mobile | LjL: so you think it’s due to the slowdown in vaccination rates? I don’t see how that would affect someone that’s already in the hospital? My understanding is it’s mostly the unvaccinated that are dying now but I guess what I don’t understand is why did it take so long to happen & why in 2021 now? | 04:17 |
bn_mobile | Or you are thinking because not enough people have been vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, the ones that weren’t are now getting “picked off”? I so, wouldn’t the rate have been higher earlier then? | 04:19 |
mambang[m] | <Brainstorm> "New from r/WorldNews: worldnews:..." <- %cases malaysia | 04:23 |
mambang[m] | %cases Malaysia | 04:23 |
Brainstorm | mambang[m]: Malaysia has had 2.3 million confirmed cases (7.1% of all people) and 27329 deaths (1.2% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 31.6 million tests were done (7.4% positive). 24.4 million were vaccinated (74.6%). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Malaysia | 04:23 |
Brainstorm | mambang[m]: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Malaysia, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it. | 04:24 |
mambang[m] | %tell LjL https://covidnow.moh.gov.my | 04:26 |
Brainstorm | mambang[m], I'll pass LjL your message when they are around. | 04:26 |
Brainstorm | Updates for St. Vin. and Gren.: +131 cases (now 4096), +5 deaths (now 38), +658 tests (now 80024) since 3 days ago — St. Kitts and Nevis: +42 cases (now 2403), +2 deaths (now 19) since a day ago | 04:38 |
LjL | mambang[m], thanks | 04:59 |
Brainstorm | LjL: At 2021-10-11 02:26:58 UTC, mambang[m] told you: https://covidnow.moh.gov.my | 04:59 |
LjL | bn_mobile, herd immunity isn't going to be a thing with the current vaccines. i just mean that if most deaths are among the unvaccinated, because there *are* a lot of unvaccinated, you can see cases being relatively low, and still a lot of deaths | 05:00 |
LjL | in any case keep in mind deaths always show up as delayed ~2 weeks from cases | 05:01 |
LjL | %cases malaysia | 05:01 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Peru: +675 cases (now 2.2 million), +31 deaths (now 199672), +32283 tests (now 18.3 million) since a day ago — New Zealand: +34 cases (now 4659), +15349 tests (now 3.6 million) since a day ago | 05:01 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Malaysia has had 2.3 million confirmed cases (7.1% of all people) and 27329 deaths (1.2% of cases) as of 8 hours ago. 31.6 million tests were done (7.4% positive). 24.4 million were vaccinated (74.6%). See https://covidnow.moh.gov.my/ | 05:01 |
bn_mobile | LjL: What do you “mean herd immunity isn’t going to be a thing with the current vaccines”? | 05:04 |
bn_mobile | s/“mean/mean “/ | 05:04 |
LjL | bn_mobile, herd immunity is based on the assumption most people actually become immune to an extent that they *do not* transmit the virus to others (roughly the same as sterile immunity). this just isn't happening with the current vaccines and with Delta, vaccinated people can infect others. so the herd immunity threshold is >100% | 05:05 |
LjL | we'll need Delta-specific vaccines | 05:06 |
bn_mobile | The thing is there was more unvaccinated earlier so if anything the #s should have been higher. It doesn’t make sense that #s now are even worse than in 2020? | 05:06 |
LjL | bn_mobile, i don't know, the US is big and complex, but i look at http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US&cumulative=no&smooth=yes and i see cases are going down, and deaths are also going down. they're lagging behind compared to cases, but they're going down. why are they higher vs cases than last wave? because last wave wasn't Delta. the latest paper about this says Delta has 230% the chances of getting you into ICU than the original variant | 05:08 |
bn_mobile | You’re saying there’s 0 difference in the amount of virus carried by vaccinated vs unvaccinated, in re. to being a carrier ? Surely, when one is vaccinated, one is less likely to carry it? | 05:09 |
bn_mobile | I guess the only way this is possible is if like you’re saying, this new largest wave of deaths is due to the delta variant that only recently reached the US | 05:11 |
LjL | bn_mobile, you're less likely to carry it, but nowhere near "95%" less, more like 50% less at best. if you do carry it, then the viral load has been found (approximated by Ct) to be roughly equal to people who are unvaccinated, although it doesn't last as long | 05:11 |
LjL | i don't like how long the rhetoric in the US has been "99% of the hospitalized are unvaccinated!" because that was only true if you counted numbers that were way pre-Delta. with Delta, Europe and other places clearly showed that was NOT true. and, sure, it was a way to tell people to get vaccinated, which is a good thing to tell them... but never, in my opinion, by lying | 05:13 |
LjL | with this let's call it "massaged truth", people like you are now confused, and people who are already skeptical of vaccines are going to see "see? they don't work, and they lied" | 05:13 |
LjL | the reality is they do work, but not nearly as well as we had hoped, since Delta arrived, and also that Delta is generally much worse | 05:13 |
bn_mobile | But the # of people that got vaccinated pre-Delta & still got infected, ie: “breakthrough infection “ is a minority though I thought? | 05:22 |
LjL | uh, who *got infected* pre-Delta, yeah | 05:22 |
LjL | but if they got infected post-Delta (i.e. by delta), their being vaccinated... sure, it still helps, but there are *many* breakthrough infections | 05:22 |
bn_mobile | well, that too but I meant got infected with Delta | 05:23 |
LjL | it depends on what you mean by a minority | 05:23 |
LjL | literally less than 50% of them? probably | 05:23 |
LjL | i mean, certainly | 05:23 |
bn_mobile | Yes | 05:23 |
LjL | but they are a sizable percentage of the infected | 05:24 |
LjL | it's not like among the infected, 95% are unvaccinated, and 5% are vaccinated | 05:24 |
LjL | not if you look at Delta timeframes anyway | 05:24 |
bn_mobile | My point being that the pre-Delta vaccines still kinda help against Delta (but only by making the effects less severe) | 05:25 |
LjL | sure | 05:26 |
bn_mobile | So if the effects are less severe, that means most likely less deaths in that vaccinated group | 05:28 |
specing | I'm surprised that we dont have delta vaccines yet | 05:29 |
bn_mobile | They are starting to have boosters here I thought? | 05:29 |
LjL | specing, i mostly thank Pfizer | 05:29 |
LjL | bn_mobile, yes less deaths but not *dramatically* less deaths | 05:29 |
LjL | bn_mobile, also keep in mind social factors. it's possible that people who are fully vaccinated are less likely to take an "official" test and be reported as positives, simply because they don't believe it can be COVID since they're fully vaccinated | 05:30 |
LjL | but if they get worse and die, well, *that* gets recorded | 05:30 |
bn_mobile | I dunno, I would think those that do get vaccinated are people who obviously followed the science & perhaps know it’s not bulletproof? | 05:32 |
LjL | that's a big assumption. despite having fewer vaccinated people than other countries, you still have a *massive* percentage of the population vaccinated in the US. i assume most of them just did what they were told but don't exactly join this channel and get the "99%" myths debunked | 05:33 |
LjL | also, i think we should look at individual states | 05:34 |
bn_mobile | I guess maybe there are those that think it’s 💯 % armor & are just complying 🤷♂️ | 05:34 |
LjL | in some, the situation is bad enough the healthcare system got swamped again | 05:34 |
LjL | that definitely causes more deaths even despite relatively fewer cases | 05:34 |
Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +33638 cases (now 8.2 million) since 14 hours ago — Netherlands: +2281 cases (now 2.1 million) since 18 hours ago | 05:36 |
bn_mobile | Is the CDC or other sites tracking which variant is the cause of death? | 05:36 |
bn_mobile | Yeah, you’re right, it could be influenced by the amount of healthcare services in one’s area. | 05:38 |
LjL | i don't know of anything that tracks variants as the cause of death | 05:38 |
LjL | in general variants are not very well tracked in most countries | 05:38 |
LjL | they are not sequenced from a random sample | 05:39 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Covid Mutants – Science To The Rescue | A frontline nurse in the U.K. recounts a nightmare year of battling successive waves of the coronavirus made worse by the new variant. → https://is.gd/wKPAx5 | 06:27 |
Brainstorm | Updates for India: +18132 cases (now 34.0 million), +2319009 tests (now 583.6 million) since 23 hours ago | 06:38 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: ‘Freedom Day’: Sydney reopens as Australia looks to live with COVID-19 → https://is.gd/BMZtTV | 06:48 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19 Australia: NSW lockdown ends after 106 days → https://is.gd/ZnL1Wa | 06:58 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US-Taliban talks conclude, Sydney reopens after 107 days: 5 overnight developments from around the globe → https://is.gd/60tx8J | 07:20 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Zealand braces for rising Covid cases as expert warns of potential explosion → https://is.gd/AnznZZ | 07:30 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Over 90% of Malaysia's adult population fully vaccinated against Covid-19 → https://is.gd/qIXHEu | 07:40 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Lombardy, Italy: +278 cases (now 886807), +2 deaths (now 34085) since a day ago | 07:41 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Massive EU study shows vaccines prevent severe COVID illness, even from Delta variant → https://is.gd/cmpOm7 | 07:51 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Jeff Bezos Ex-Wife Mackenzie Scott donates 1.7 Billion to HBCU’s, 2.7 Billion to Charities and Covid Relief → https://is.gd/AdLiou | 08:12 |
ZdrytchX | .cases victoria | 08:35 |
Brainstorm | ZdrytchX: Victoria, Australia has had 54470 confirmed cases (0.8% of all people) and 913 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 54 minutes ago. 69000 tests were done (78.9% positive). +1568 cases, +8 deaths since a day ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Victoria | 08:35 |
Brainstorm | ZdrytchX: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Victoria, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it. | 08:35 |
ZdrytchX | .cases australia | 08:36 |
Brainstorm | ZdrytchX: Australia has had 129567 confirmed cases (0.5% of all people) and 1448 deaths (1.1% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 39.9 million tests were done (0.3% positive). 17.7 million were vaccinated (68.8%). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia | 08:36 |
Brainstorm | ZdrytchX: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Australia, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it. | 08:36 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | October 11, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/gtxO5o | 09:05 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Taiwan: +11 cases (now 16305), +20719 tests (now 6.8 million) since 22 hours ago | 09:08 |
Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: Ivermectin is the new hydroxychloroquine, take 6: Incompetence and fraud everywhere!: Ivermectin is the new hydroxychloroquine, a drug repurposed for COVID-19 that almost certainly doesn't work but is being touted as a "miracle cure" by quacks, grifters, and political ideologues. Are the data it all fraud? The post [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/z9fOe6 | 09:15 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Czechia: +335 cases (now 1.7 million), +3 deaths (now 30504), +30511 tests (now 38.9 million) since 23 hours ago | 09:32 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Significant proportions of people admitted to hospital, or dying from covid-19 in England are vaccinated—this doesn’t mean the vaccines don’t workblogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/08/25… → https://is.gd/ugtbRB | 09:47 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Hungary: +2046 cases (now 829456), +28 deaths (now 30303), +39373 tests (now 7.1 million) since 3 days ago | 10:10 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: Health disparities for Filipinxs in health care are disguised by data aggregation: Why has the impact of Covid-19 on Filipinx and other Asian communities been ignored even though they make up one of the fastest growing racial groups in the U.S.? → https://is.gd/wZx8EU | 10:50 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Austria: +1320 cases (now 762538), +10 deaths (now 11106), +236189 tests (now 90.6 million) since 22 hours ago | 11:00 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Russia STOLE the blueprint for the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab, security sources tell ministers → https://is.gd/TfiMkQ | 11:00 |
Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: Serratus: The ultra-deep search to discover novel coronaviruses: Serratus Project Updates Ribovirus classification by a polymerase barcode sequence Palmprint preprint RNA viruses encoding a polymerase gene (riboviruses) dominate the known eukaryotic virome. Next-generation sequencing is revealing a wealth of new [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/5LKEFh | 11:21 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Russian spy 'stole blueprint for AstraZeneca vaccine to make Sputnik jab' → https://is.gd/Qh7O9G | 11:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Russia: +29409 cases (now 7.8 million), +957 deaths (now 217372), +400000 tests (now 197.2 million) since a day ago | 11:37 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Prof Francois Balloux (@BallouxFrancois): I feel it would be worthwhile investigating further the potential for LFT cross-reactivity between SARSCoV2 and endemic HCoVs. While somewhat unlikely, this remains a far more plausible hypothesis to me than an increase in PCR false-negatives due to recent SARSCoV2 evolution.4/ → https://is.gd/3ZK8uI | 11:43 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Finland: +1618 cases (now 147297), +4 deaths (now 1100), +14894 tests (now 7.2 million) since 2 days ago — Latvia: +1002 cases (now 172278), +5 deaths (now 2806), +6613 vaccines (now 957370), +7847 tests (now 4.6 million) since 23 hours ago — Poland: +903 cases (now 2.9 million), +21213 tests (now 21.3 million) since 23 hours ago [... want %more?] | 12:02 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Wales NHS Covid passes become compulsory → https://is.gd/YeKtZi | 12:46 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: AP News: Merck asks US FDA to authorize promising anti-COVID pill → https://is.gd/KBi2or | 12:56 |
de-facto[m] | .title https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/08/25/significant-proportions-of-people-admitted-to-hospital-or-dying-from-covid-19-in-england-are-vaccinated-this-doesnt-mean-the-vaccines-dont-work/ | 13:02 |
Brainstorm | de-facto[m]: From blogs.bmj.com: Significant proportions of people admitted to hospital, or dying from covid-19 in England are vaccinated—this doesn’t mean the vaccines don’t work - The BMJ | 13:02 |
de-facto[m] | good explanation of how vaccination rates and vaccine efficacy influences proportions of observed breakthrough cases illustrated with examples | 13:03 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +663 cases (now 802861), +12 deaths (now 11243), +7233 tests (now 4.3 million) since 21 hours ago — UAE: +124 cases (now 737890), +1 deaths (now 2114), +276637 tests (now 87.2 million) since 23 hours ago | 13:04 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspend use of Moderna vaccine in young people “as a precaution”: Sweden, Norway, and Finland suspended the use of Moderna’s covid-19 vaccine on 7 October after reports of possible rare side effects.The pause “for precautionary reasons” in Sweden and Finland... → https://is.gd/Z8nuKG | 13:28 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Laos: +309 cases (now 28849), +4 deaths (now 30), +3600 tests (now 527790) since a day ago — Brunei: +187 cases (now 9167), +3552 tests (now 406629) since 22 hours ago — Senegal: +4 cases (now 73841), +1429 tests (now 815169) since 10 hours ago | 13:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +620 cases (now 4.2 million), +65 deaths (now 142716), +225083 tests (now 41.8 million) since a day ago — Bangladesh: +599 cases (now 1.6 million), +11 deaths (now 27699), +23193 tests (now 10.0 million) since 23 hours ago | 14:31 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: AstraZeneca drug cocktail succeeds in late-stage study to treat Covid-19 → https://is.gd/j5nUcS | 14:54 |
Brainstorm | New from Politico: Afghanistan war: ‘The president’s decline is alarming’: Biden trapped in coronavirus malaise → https://is.gd/Un4Xno | 15:05 |
imaginary | .title https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1447550036582141960 | 15:13 |
Brainstorm | imaginary: From twitter.com: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "2. When the number of people vaccinated far exceeds the resident population, which helps explain the Florida outlier issue (% vaccinated vs death rate)" | 42l - nitter | 15:13 |
imaginary | i had been wondering about this. if US stats were being padded using "vaccine vacation" rates | 15:13 |
imaginary | for a while i've suspected that the US vaccination rates might be even lower than reported :( | 15:13 |
Brainstorm | New from EMA: Human medicine assessment reports: (news): Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Trumenba, meningococcal group b vaccine (recombinant, adsorbed), Meningitis, Meningococcal, Date of authorisation: 24/05/2017, Revision: 11, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/Z4x9GW | 15:15 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Our covid times :-) pic.twitter.com/w4iYmqXU48 → https://is.gd/iu8gKz | 15:26 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belarus: +1943 cases (now 559715), +15 deaths (now 4304), +28844 tests (now 8.9 million) since a day ago | 15:33 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The Phase 3 randomized trial of the @Novavax protein vaccine in ~30,000 participants (2:1 randomization) in the US and Mexico with overall efficacy >90% vs symptomatic infectionsmedrxiv.org/content/10.110…new @medrxivpreprint pic.twitter.com/xTYoC6t1hM → https://is.gd/IJXpiE | 15:37 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Singapore expands quarantine-free travel to eight countries, India not on list → https://is.gd/A0gEqf | 16:10 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +2261 cases (now 850679), +6 deaths (now 11139), +99250 tests (now 11.2 million) since 2 days ago — Uganda: +90 cases (now 124736), +1 deaths (now 3177), +4683 tests (now 1.7 million) since 23 hours ago — Saudi Arabia: +58 cases (now 547649), +3 deaths (now 8748), +48355 tests (now 29.4 million) since 23 hours ago [... want %more?] | 16:10 |
Brainstorm | Updates for San Marino: +4 cases (now 5470), +865 tests (now 80733) since 2 days ago | 16:29 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Prof Francois Balloux (@BallouxFrancois): To clarify, while there seems to have been a recent increase of LFT+/PCR- cases reported in the UK, this remains a tiny fraction of all cases. Thus, whatever the causes behind a potential increase in 'LFT false positives', this doesn't drive changes in case numbers in the UK.5/ → https://is.gd/X1XBgn | 16:31 |
Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest topics: Putative host origins of RNA insertions in SARS-CoV-2 genomes: Thomas P. Peacock 1 *, David L. V. Bauer 2 , Wendy S. Barclay 1 1 Department of Infectious Disease, St Marys Medical School, Imperial College London, UK. 2 The RNA Virus Replication Laboratory, The Francis Crick Institute, London, UK. *corresponding [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/WG8PIT | 16:42 |
Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Monoclonal Antibodies Effective Against COVID-19 in Native American Patients: No ICU admissions or deaths were reported among Native American patients treated with monoclonal antibodies for COVID-19 in a recent study. → https://is.gd/Usu8QZ | 17:03 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +3368 cases (now 4.3 million), +12 deaths (now 95041) since 19 hours ago — India: +13741 cases (now 34.0 million), +129 deaths (now 450828) since 23 hours ago | 17:06 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Antibody levels fall after second Pfizer dose, but protection against severe disease remains, studies indicate: Six months after the second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech covid-19 vaccine, antibody concentrations in healthcare workers had decreased substantially, especially among older men and immunosuppressed... → https://is.gd/OD3BJd | 17:14 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Monday 11 October 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/tVzamn | 17:25 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +2726 cases (now 2.1 million), +5 deaths (now 18635) since 23 hours ago — Jordan: +1307 cases (now 834778), +7 deaths (now 10818), +32511 tests (now 10.4 million) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +77 cases (now 8.2 million) since 21 hours ago | 17:31 |
Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Acetylsalicylic Acid in COVID-19 (ASA-SARS) → https://is.gd/E5OG6v | 17:36 |
Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Burden of Care of Long COVID Patients After Hospital Discharge → https://is.gd/4u2D2J | 17:46 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Just published @Nature Impact of variants, including Delta (B.1.617.2), on neutralizing antibody levels in vaccinated health care workers, with or w/o prior Covidnature.com/articles/s4158…@VirusesImmunity @YaleIBIO @carolilucasSupport for 💉boosters in people w/o prior infection pic.twitter.com/zj84P0mkRk → https://is.gd/DVnnfV | 18:08 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Is the worst of the US pandemic over? The good news is the 20% reduction cases and hospitalizations in the past 2 weeks, but the levels are still very high. And there's a shift in where deaths are occurring.ft.com/content/55a8e7… graph by @caitlinsgilbert @FT@JamieSmythF pic.twitter.com/CEPUoT5bZm → https://is.gd/iE4yRa | 18:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Greece: +2358 cases (now 679157), +42 deaths (now 15177), +72843 tests (now 22.1 million) since a day ago — Italy: +1516 cases (now 4.7 million), +34 deaths (now 131335), +114776 tests (now 95.4 million) since a day ago — Switzerland: +5 cases (now 850684) since 2 hours ago | 18:33 |
Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Despite Scares from COVID Vaccine, Mammograms Still Vital: We’ve known for months now that COVID-19 vaccines can cause a reaction that may give women a breast cancer scare. But, scientists and doctors say, mammograms remain as important as ever. → https://is.gd/04RQcp | 18:50 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +3829 cases (now 5.0 million), +49 deaths (now 86827) since 2 days ago | 19:11 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +1284 cases (now 1.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 19:36 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): NEW: people obsess over vaccine uptake stats, eagerly comparing one country to others to see which has jabbed the highest share of its population, but what if I told you many — perhaps most — of those stats are wrong?Time for a thread on bad Covid data and how it can cost lives → https://is.gd/NPL9oB | 19:43 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Three different post-Delta wave patterns in countries with high vaccination rates, relative to the US (examples)1. Full descent (to date): UAE, Spain, Portugal2. Unsteady: UK, Denmark (at very different case levels)3. Flare-up: Singapore@OurWorldInData pic.twitter.com/pisYLwWTbi → https://is.gd/p6pn1W | 20:25 |
Brainstorm | Updates for India: +13173 cases (now 34.0 million), +177 deaths (now 450991) since 23 hours ago | 20:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +2812 cases (now 4.3 million), +33 deaths (now 95066) since 20 hours ago | 21:40 |
IndoAnon | de-facto: | 21:42 |
IndoAnon | https://archive.is/2x8r0 https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Category/MPage/Q8n9n-Q4aBpRrGnKVGFkng https://www.cdc.gov.tw/File/Get/fYeIuZLIgN7QW7Jw3uZSVg https://files.catbox.moe/146x41.pdf | 21:43 |
IndoAnon | >According to a “Notice of Adverse Events after COVID-19 Vaccination” issued by Taiwan’s health department, on March 22 this year, Taiwan began vaccination. From that day to October 6, the death toll after vaccination in Taiwan has reached 849. | 21:43 |
IndoAnon | >As of the 6th, since the epidemic, the number of deaths due to the confirmed COVID-19 in Taiwan was 844. This is the first time that the number of deaths after vaccination has exceeded the number of confirmed deaths. | 21:44 |
de-facto | hmm is it a classic "the more vaccinated the more cases emerge from the majority of vaccinated" kind of scenario? | 21:51 |
de-facto | also it always has to be seen relative to the total number of infections, otherwise such absolute numbers dont make sense | 21:52 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The hope for the US is to follow pattern 1, but the reality is more likely to be 2, owing to fully vaccinated rate 56%, compared with countries up to 30 per cent points higher (examples in pattern 1) of their total population pic.twitter.com/rn2zVPsUPq → https://is.gd/e8UQ9L | 21:58 |
IndoAnon | If we assume that there's 17M people on the islands who received at least one dose, the number sits at 850 now. That's ratio of 1 to 20000 | 22:01 |
LjL | IndoAnon, what is the expected death toll "after vaccination" (however that is defined) if vaccination resulted in *no* adverse effects? | 22:01 |
LjL | 849 tells me nothing | 22:02 |
IndoAnon | I'm really patient | 22:03 |
LjL | de-facto, i don't think he's talking about infections | 22:04 |
LjL | i can't read Chinese but that thing mentions VAERS | 22:04 |
LjL | so this is probably about deaths reported to VAERS at some point after vaccination | 22:04 |
de-facto | oh i did not read the links (as i dont understand the language) | 22:04 |
IndoAnon | LjL: Obviously, I'm not clever enough to make realistic simulation to get the death count without any """vaccine""" | 22:07 |
aann | singapore is @ 80%, and yet had a major outbreak | 22:07 |
IndoAnon | also, 50log10= ~1.6 | 22:08 |
aann | apparently Fauci is saying the US is plateau'ing with a high death rate, and may stay there | 22:08 |
IndoAnon | aann: that's because they open school back in june. I think they're unable to contact trace... Oh well, this site is not up to date, but it has good graph https://covid.viz.sg | 22:10 |
de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_Taiwan Oxford-AstraZeneca: 9941380; Moderna: 4867954; Medigen Biologics: 1274105; Pfizer-BioNTech 1804026 | 22:17 |
IndoAnon | AZN is the worst 1 deaths in 15.3K | 22:18 |
IndoAnon | *death | 22:18 |
de-facto | that sounds odd, i dont think UK got such stats | 22:20 |
IndoAnon | I agree, it must be faulty batch | 22:20 |
de-facto | where do you see that numbers? | 22:20 |
IndoAnon | https://files.catbox.moe/146x41.pdf | 22:20 |
IndoAnon | https://www.cdc.gov.tw/File/Get/fYeIuZLIgN7QW7Jw3uZSVg | 22:20 |
IndoAnon | The ratio? Using calculator | 22:21 |
de-facto | hmm damn is there a translator for pdfs? | 22:22 |
de-facto | i cant read that | 22:22 |
IndoAnon | 死 is death | 22:22 |
IndoAnon | The translation is https://archive.is/2x8r0 | 22:23 |
de-facto | hmm that dosing errors sounds scary | 22:27 |
de-facto | "She mentioned that recently, some hospitals in Taiwan have reported that 25 people were vaccinated with undiluted vaccine stock solution, or the vaccination dose was insufficient." | 22:27 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Dominican Rep.: +633 cases (now 366191), +4351 tests (now 2.1 million) since a day ago — Kuwait: +42 cases (now 412121), +1 deaths (now 2455), +21267 tests (now 4.5 million) since a day ago | 22:30 |
de-facto | i dont know what to think about that, i cant read the original document in chinese without translator and the translator refuses that pdf | 22:31 |
IndoAnon | just copy it bit by bit, de-facto | 22:31 |
IndoAnon | the important stuff is on the table | 22:31 |
de-facto | uuuff thats a lot of work though | 22:32 |
de-facto | why cant that damn google translate work on that pdf? | 22:32 |
IndoAnon | Idk lol | 22:35 |
de-facto | i even uploaded it somewhere else and pointed google translate to it "Can't translate this page" well yeah thanks | 22:36 |
de-facto | yeah i think we need to read the *whole* thing to get an appropriate picture | 22:40 |
de-facto | without it being fully translated i cant say anything | 22:40 |
Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: News Scan for Oct 11, 2021: Mental disorders and COVID death COVID-19 monoclonal antibody treatment CWD halts MN deer farm movement Seafood Salmonella outbreak → https://is.gd/fWo0i0 | 22:41 |
IndoAnon | Uh, okay | 22:43 |
IndoAnon | https://bpa.st/7Q3A | 22:43 |
LjL | IndoAnon, scarequoting "vaccine" will get you nowhere fast here. anyway as to https://archive.is/2021.10.11-174502/https://medicaltrend.org/2021/10/10/taiwan-death-from-covid-19-vaccination-exceeds-death-from-covid-19/ i note that the first two paragraph talk about death "from" COVID-19 vaccination, then in the third paragraph where it actually mentions data, it turns into death "after" vaccination and it seems designed not to make the reader notice that. | 22:52 |
LjL | that's a pretty typical hallmark of needing to dig deeper. | 22:52 |
IndoAnon | LjL, https://bpa.st/7Q3A | 22:59 |
de-facto | we need the whole document as it describes what they list there | 22:59 |
IndoAnon | Hmm, you haven't translated it? | 23:00 |
pwr22 | Is this more of these out of context revelations again? | 23:01 |
de-facto | i cant speak Chinese | 23:01 |
Arsanerit | everybody who gets the vaccine dies after vaccination. Some people who make a vaccine appointment die before vaccination. Maybe even in traffic on the way to the vaccination centre. | 23:01 |
Arsanerit | Should I get the Grippeschutsimpfung? Last year I did but it turned out the disease was completely cancelled. | 23:01 |
LjL | the one thing you may, tentatively, look at in that table is how the ratios differ by vaccine | 23:01 |
pwr22 | That document looks terribly formatted | 23:01 |
LjL | since we don't know what the baseline "death after vaccine" is (especially if "after" is ill-defined), that's the most you can do | 23:02 |
de-facto | i suspect it includes breakthrough covid deaths but i cant know for sure without reading the rest | 23:02 |
LjL | does AZ seem to give a higher death ratio than Moderna or whatever? that may be meaningful to some extent, although it may also be tainted by people's perceptions about the various vaccine, and so the propensity to report a death as related to the vaccine or not | 23:02 |
pwr22 | de-facto: last time I humoured IndoAnon a lot and eventually they gave a CDC doc that said the opposite of what they were suggesting | 23:02 |
LjL | although with deaths, hopefully, that bias should be minimal | 23:02 |
pwr22 | I.e. adverse events from mRNA vaccines was very low | 23:03 |
pwr22 | I think we can short circuit the patience this time | 23:03 |
Arsanerit | wasn't the AZ vaccine available earlier than the others, such that countries that started with the most frail people will have mostly used that vaccine at first? | 23:04 |
pwr22 | IndoAnon: discussion is fine, even of more fringe stuff as long as it's a reasonable discussion, but dropping terse thin slices of information as "the truth" and kind of acting slightly smug and aloof and refusing to actually discuss things logically isn't | 23:04 |
de-facto | here you go, i translated it for you IndoAnon https://ctxt-io.translate.goog/2/AABgDKR_Eg?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=nui | 23:07 |
de-facto | "These notification events occurred sequentially after vaccination, | 23:08 |
de-facto | But it does not mean that it is caused by vaccination." | 23:08 |
LjL | IndoAnon, so i did the maths (thankfully i can do it from the original table because i can read 死 indeed, while i'm not smart enough to parse the translation you gave) and i don't really know what to make of it. Moderna seems to have a slightly higher rate than AZ, 高端 a lower rate but it also was given to very few people so i'm not sure it's statistically valid, while it would seem that Pfizer somehow has a minuscule rate compared to the others? | 23:08 |
LjL | de-facto, so, "whenever someone felt like reporting them to VAERS, under their own discretion of whether it warranted a vaccine-related death report" | 23:09 |
IndoAnon | https://bpa.st/T4RQ | 23:10 |
IndoAnon | Well, LjL, I use translator. | 23:10 |
LjL | sure, but the formatting makes it very hard to read | 23:11 |
LjL | anyway i made the proportions from the original table | 23:11 |
LjL | i don't know what i should make of this. there isn't even a specified timeframe for "after"...? | 23:11 |
LjL | the first paragraph specifies the caveats quite clearly, and they are big caveats | 23:12 |
LjL | most of what i can infer from all of this is that chinese is so much more condensed than english | 23:12 |
IndoAnon | Pwr22, contradicting views exists. Thus, there's no consensus | 23:12 |
de-facto | "The number of reported deaths (reported value) of men and women of each age group for the brand and individual brands is not higher than the expected number of deaths (background expectations) value)." | 23:12 |
LjL | there may be no consensus, but you seem to be using these data to hint at the opposite of what, say, de-facto has just stated | 23:13 |
LjL | which was pretty much my initial question | 23:13 |
de-facto | what does that mean? they counted all deaths that ever occured in any vaccinated due to whatever reason? | 23:13 |
de-facto | and compared that to the expectation value of non-vaccinated? | 23:13 |
LjL | de-facto, it's VAERS. they count whatever people report. | 23:13 |
LjL | i thought my mom's dizziness seemed suspiciously correlated with the vaccine, i reported it | 23:14 |
LjL | it was my call, basically | 23:14 |
de-facto | yeah | 23:14 |
IndoAnon | While what de-facto quoted is rightfully the statement from CDC TW, I still think it's not satisfactory to the golden standard | 23:17 |
de-facto | given the numbers in the text (without any context) AZ 644/9679229 ~ 1/15030; Moderna 183/4827495 ~ 1/26379; High-End 22/1262609 ~ 1/57391; BioNTech: 1/1772258 | 23:21 |
pwr22 | <IndoAnon> "Peter, contradicting views..." <- I don't see how that relates to what I said? | 23:21 |
de-facto | that does not make too much sense to me, e.g. why would Moderna and BioNTech be that different? | 23:21 |
LjL | IndoAnon, indeed, the gold standard is a randomized controlled trial, and those were done | 23:22 |
LjL | usgh | 23:22 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: French study of over 22m people finds vaccines cut severe Covid risk by 90% → https://is.gd/AwFrCV | 23:23 |
de-facto | i dont think BNT/Moderna ~ 1/67 is realistic they should be quite similar | 23:23 |
de-facto | lets look at their incidence curve | 23:24 |
de-facto | they got a peak in 2021-05-11 -> 2021-07-11 | 23:25 |
de-facto | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/taiwan/ | 23:25 |
de-facto | Deployment of vaccine: Moderna since 2021-06-09 and BNT since 2021-09-22 | 23:27 |
de-facto | so that looks to me as if fatal covid outcomes are also included in those deaths reported there | 23:28 |
de-facto | e.g. they started with BNT after their COVID wave hence got very low number of deaths reported in that group | 23:29 |
de-facto | whta do you guys think? | 23:29 |
IndoAnon | But, medigen also start being deployed after 23th of August | 23:30 |
LjL | i don't know, maybe, i just know those numbers are patently unreliable | 23:30 |
de-facto | COVID fatalities in TW were mainly between 2021-05-22 -> 2021-07-31 | 23:30 |
LjL | it's not like there is a puzzle to solve here, these numbers *are not expected* to be meaningful | 23:30 |
IndoAnon | Oh wait | 23:31 |
de-facto | yeah those are absolute *raw* numbers they are *not* linked to a cause or normalized by background expectation values | 23:31 |
IndoAnon | It's only 20 days since they start using BNT, I guess that's the appropriate reason | 23:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Maldives: +74 cases (now 85622), +246 vaccines (now 393133), +3312 tests (now 1.5 million) since a day ago — Malawi: +3 cases (now 61679), +20488 vaccines (now 867591), +890 tests (now 415561) since a day ago | 23:32 |
LjL | also you missed what i said because you had quit: IndoAnon, indeed, the gold standard is a randomized controlled trial, and those were done | 23:32 |
LjL | these numbers are being used to *confirm* there is no "safety signal" i.e. the numbers are compatible with naturally expected deaths | 23:33 |
de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_Taiwan#Vaccine_orders_and_arrival | 23:33 |
LjL | you can't accuse them of not being the "gold standard" because they are not supposed to be, they cannot be | 23:33 |
Arsanerit | vaccinated ppl are not immortal | 23:33 |
LjL | there *are expected* to be deaths after being vaccinated, but that article you linked in english, and, honestly, yourself, are using that expected reality and distoring it to mean that they have to be deaths "from" the vaccine | 23:34 |
LjL | that is not honest and the onus of proving this is not bullshit is on you / the article / whoever claims they're deaths from the vaccine, not the researchers whose job is to make sure these deaths are compatible with natural deaths i.e. there is no safety signal to be looked at | 23:35 |
de-facto | they explicitly say its not from vaccine: "These notification events occurred sequentially after vaccination, But it does not mean that it is caused by vaccination." | 23:35 |
IndoAnon | s/vaccination/corona | 23:36 |
de-facto | and to be clear, above ratios i pasted are *not* normalized, because they are about different time windows, with different incidence, probably with different age groups etc | 23:36 |
LjL | yes, sure, it may be caused by neither, it may be caused by a heart attack that was going to happen regardless of vaccines and regardless of corona | 23:36 |
LjL | that is the point of comparing it with natural incidence | 23:37 |
IndoAnon | Yeah | 23:38 |
IndoAnon | I think someone should calculate the chances of developing X conditions after corona or a jab or two or three... However, I think I recall something in the past | 23:39 |
de-facto | honestly i would be surprised to see different adverse event rates in TW due to no reason, those are the same vaccines | 23:41 |
LjL | it's very difficult. as you said there is a "gold standard" and that's RCTs, but RCTs on rare effects are very hard to do. doing it based on things like VAERS is basically impossible | 23:41 |
IndoAnon | https://files.catbox.moe/hrlnzg.png | 23:41 |
LjL | IndoAnon, you've shown that before, i don't remember if i already pointed out that the p-value there in the thing you've highlighted says it's *not* statistically meaningful | 23:42 |
IndoAnon | Still, a signal | 23:42 |
LjL | no | 23:43 |
LjL | that's literally the opposite of what "a signal" means | 23:43 |
LjL | the VERY LINE says "Signal: no" | 23:43 |
Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Merck applies for approval of first COVID-19 antiviral pill: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Oct 11, 2021 Emergency use authorization would be for treating mild to moderate COVID in adults at risk for severe disease. → https://is.gd/HAkWag | 23:44 |
LjL | it also explains what they mean by signal, because it's standard to use p < 0.05 but when you have many events, you cannot just use that, you must account for many-event probability | 23:44 |
IndoAnon | If it's the case, then why FDA add warning label? | 23:46 |
IndoAnon | Is it statistically insignificant data found to be significant? | 23:47 |
LjL | did they now? | 23:47 |
LjL | CVST is warned about in Europe for AstraZeneca | 23:47 |
LjL | that table is about mRNA vaccines | 23:47 |
LjL | AstraZeneca is not an mRNA vaccine | 23:47 |
LjL | that table in America likely pertains to Pfizer and Moderna | 23:47 |
IndoAnon | https://news.yahoo.com/know-guillain-barr-syndrome-johnson-221200868.html | 23:48 |
IndoAnon | >The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced on July 12 that it is updating the label on the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine to include a warning about the risk of developing Guillain-Barré syndrome, (GBS) a rare and sometimes deadly autoimmune disorder in which the body attacks and damages nerves, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). | 23:48 |
LjL | okay are we talking about CVST, which is what you've highlighted, or GBS? | 23:48 |
LjL | my head is spinning as the goalposts are moving | 23:48 |
IndoAnon | On that table, that's 0.887 | 23:49 |
IndoAnon | Hey | 23:49 |
LjL | if they added a warning about GBS, they probably had a signal about GBS | 23:49 |
LjL | that signal is, however, not in that table | 23:49 |
LjL | in that table, the occurrence of GBS *with* the vaccine is *lower* than in the control subjects (although those are also vaccinated, probably to control for COVID effects) | 23:49 |
IndoAnon | that's news from 21 July 2021 | 23:50 |
IndoAnon | while the slide came from this https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-08-30/04-COVID-Klein-508.pdf | 23:50 |
LjL | so what? let's determine what we're talking about here. you linked to a table. you're saying CVST is bad because its occurrence relative to controls >1, and you highlighted that. in the same table, GBS is <1 | 23:50 |
LjL | so what's bad, >1 or <1? | 23:51 |
pwr22 | <IndoAnon> "https://files.catbox.moe/hrlnzg..." <- That's from the CDC document that does not agree with there being a signal! | 23:51 |
LjL | or are you just grasping at straws? | 23:51 |
IndoAnon | Nope | 23:51 |
pwr22 | Yes, it is because I remember it precisely | 23:51 |
pwr22 | I looked at that document in great detail whilst being patient with your "data" last time | 23:51 |
LjL | this is not an honest debate, at every single step you're hiding a glaring mistake in plain sight | 23:51 |
LjL | are you testing us? | 23:51 |
IndoAnon | That's silly | 23:52 |
IndoAnon | Let's review the premises shall we? | 23:52 |
LjL | that's what i just said | 23:52 |
LjL | don't try to appropriate it | 23:52 |
LjL | LjL> so what? let's determine what we're talking about here. | 23:52 |
IndoAnon | Ok, then we have something in common | 23:53 |
pwr22 | IndoAnon: there is literally overwhelming data coming out the woodwork that shows that the vaccines are a huge net good | 23:53 |
IndoAnon | If the p value should be >0.05 to be statistical significant | 23:53 |
IndoAnon | s/if/ | 23:54 |
pwr22 | You have not really provided any decent data and are generally cherry picking, taking things out of context and misrepresenting them (accidentally or intentionally I don't know) | 23:54 |
IndoAnon | GBS aren't statistically significant (0.887) | 23:55 |
pwr22 | You haven't actually provided any good evidence of that except some random copy pasted thing | 23:55 |
pwr22 | Please link to them and discuss them reasonably if so | 23:56 |
IndoAnon | Is it random? | 23:56 |
IndoAnon | https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-08-30/04-COVID-Klein-508.pdf https://news.yahoo.com/know-guillain-barr-syndrome-johnson-221200868.html | 23:56 |
pwr22 | We are all people here and tbh I think people are having enough with your style of discussion here from what I can see | 23:56 |
pwr22 | We don't have to entertain your beliefs infinitely | 23:56 |
pwr22 | https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-08-30/04-COVID-Klein-508.pdf is nothing to do with GBS | 23:57 |
pwr22 | And categorically does not support your premise | 23:57 |
pwr22 | We had a very detailed discussion about it before | 23:57 |
pwr22 | Some time towards the end of september iirc | 23:57 |
pwr22 | From the second link - which is just about a warning btw - there are warnings for anything that anyone gets whilst taking a medication - "However, the FDA notes there isn’t enough data to prove that the vaccine actually causes Guillain-Barré syndrome." | 23:59 |
IndoAnon | If p value < 0.05, then it's statistically significant. If it's statistically significant, then FDA would warned /labeled it. Given p value 0.887 and FDA give a warning, is it logically sensible | 23:59 |
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