libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2021-10-17

de-factohmm so lets calculate the half life for vaccine efficacy from the veteran study and the graphs shown above00:15
de-factoAssuming a vaccine efficacy of VE(t) = VE(t0) * (1/2) ^ ((t - t0) / t2) would give us a half life t2 = (t - t0) * Ln(1/2) / Ln(VE(t) / VE(t0)00:15
de-facto"Specifically, in March, protection against infection was: 88% (95% CI, 87% to 89%) for Janssen;00:16
de-facto92% (95% CI, 92% to 93%) for Moderna; and 91% (95% CI, 91% to 92%) for Pfizer-BioNTech.00:16
de-factoBy August, protection against infection had declined to: 3% (95% CI, -7% to 12%) for Janssen;00:16
de-facto64% (95% CI, 62%-66%) for Moderna; and 50% (95% CI, 47% to 52%) for Pfizer-BioNTech."00:16
de-factoso there we have the endpoints with t - t0 = 153 days from 1st March till 1st Aug 2021 we can calculate the associated t2 for each vaccine in that plot there00:17
de-factoJanssen:   3% / 88% = 1 / 29.33 = 0.034 hence t2 = 153 * Ln(1/2) ÷ Ln( 3 / 88) =  31.38 days half life00:17
de-factoModerna:  64% / 92% = 1 /  1.44 = 0.70  hence t2 = 153 * Ln(1/2) ÷ Ln(64 / 92) = 292.23 days half life00:17
de-factoBioNTech: 50% / 91% = 1 /  1.82 = 0.55  hence t2 = 153 * Ln(1/2) ÷ Ln(50 / 91) = 177.10 days half life00:17
de-factoLjL, thats a big odd, didn't we had studies with both BioNTech and Moderna having neutralizing antibody half life of around 96 days or such?00:19
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Anthony J Leonardi, PhD, MS (@fitterhappierAJ): It can't be any mask, it has to be N95+ or FFP2+Also 've trademarked™ the twitter use of the trademark symbol so yours is greyed out until you pay royalties to me. twitter.com/DrJBhattachary… → https://is.gd/Gn7IM900:19
sdfgsdfgsJanssen is J&J right ?00:31
sdfgsdfgswhoooaaaaa, J&J drops to 3% ?00:32
sdfgsdfgsJ&J has absolutely no value if that's the case00:32
sdfgsdfgsand that's probably because the B cell pool has no covid related cells00:33
sdfgsdfgsbut then again, we didn't even know that there was a B and T memory cell pools 5 years ago00:33
sdfgsdfgsand we still don't know the dynamics00:34
sdfgsdfgshttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03738-200:35
de-facto.title00:35
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nature.com: SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines induce persistent human germinal centre responses | Nature00:35
sdfgsdfgsthis is also about the Persistency.... on subject. Perfect :)00:36
sdfgsdfgswe all probably already read through this June paper though, I'm only back to this for more reference checks00:37
sdfgsdfgsand B/T study00:37
LjLsdfgsdfgs, uh? we certainly knew about B and T cells 5 years ago O.o00:38
LjLand this is measuring antibodies aiui00:38
LjLif B cells don't get stimulated they don't make more antibodies, so they all wane eventually00:38
sdfgsdfgsyeah but this paper's second sentence is  "The dynamics of antibody-secreting plasmablasts and germinal centre B cells induced by these vaccines in humans remain unclear"00:38
LjLi don't remember the 96 day figure, de-facto00:38
LjLbut i don't remember another figure either :P00:38
sdfgsdfgswhy do they remain unclear then00:38
sdfgsdfgslol00:38
LjLsdfgsdfgs, well knowing the exact dynamics is not the same as knowing what the cells do in general. anyway, my point is also based on something that stuck into my mind from a couple of days ago, the assertion that Delta just reproduces too quickly for B cells to make antibodies in time00:39
LjLif that's the case, then we just need to always have enough circulating antibodies00:39
sdfgsdfgsok, so we just have some initial ideas00:39
LjLwe can't rely on B cells and T cells having memory and putting it to good use when needed00:39
LjLjust because they're slower00:39
sdfgsdfgsit's good to know where we stand00:40
LjLat the brink of the abyss?00:40
sdfgsdfgslol00:40
de-facto.title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc210391600:44
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nejm.org: Antibody Persistence through 6 Months after the Second Dose of mRNA-1273 Vaccine for Covid-19 | NEJM00:44
de-facto"The neutralizing antibody half-life estimates in the two models were 69 days (95% CI, 61 to 76) ...."00:45
de-factoi think there was a paper about BNT162b2 with similar half-life linked from nixonix iirc00:45
de-factoLjL, maybe its also because VE is not directly linked to nAb titer decay?00:46
LjLat least the correlation is far from linear i bet00:47
de-factoabove VE half life for Moderna is 4.24-fold of the nAb half life from the longitudinal serum study00:47
sdfgsdfgsone of them is manipulated00:48
sdfgsdfgsby the new world order agents00:48
de-factolol00:48
de-factoyeah i think it means VE is due to all of the branches of (dynamic) immune system collaborating on protection while serum nAb titer only is in vitro testing for one specific property (antibodies)00:49
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Covid2019: One-year Risks and Burdens of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in COVID-19: Cardiovascular Manifestations of Long COVID [Preprint] ― “our results provide evidence that risk and 1-year burden of cardiovascular disease in survivors of acute COVID-19 are substantial” → https://is.gd/mSb8VS00:50
de-facto.title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa211458300:53
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nejm.org: Waning Immune Humoral Response to BNT162b2 Covid-19 Vaccine over 6 Months | NEJM00:53
de-factoalso it seems its not entirely an exponential, after longer times the decay rates slow down00:54
de-facto"The level of IgG antibodies decreased at a consistent rate, whereas the neutralizing antibody level decreased rapidly for the first 3 months with a relatively slow decrease thereafter."00:54
de-factoalso the T-cells probably are quite important for VE00:55
sdfgsdfgsI thought the memory cells were the important ones, even if the antibodies waned they would still kickstart an accurate response again or something ??00:57
de-factoyeah the resistent memory b-cells would remember how to produce antibodies and quickly begin to divide and produce the antibodies again in case the antigen is seen01:01
de-factobut that is too late to prevent an initial infection it takes a few days01:01
de-factoit only prevents that infection from spreading further01:02
BrainstormUpdates for Colombia: +1544 cases (now 5.0 million), +34 deaths (now 126830), +45297 tests (now 26.2 million) since a day ago01:02
de-factopre-existing antibodies circulating would directly clamp onto any virion that comes in contact with them and if it did not mutate too much it hopefully is neutralized by the antibody blocking its replication process01:03
de-factocytotoxic t-cells would be triggered by cells blooming with spike and kill them etc01:04
de-factoyeah in reality its much more complex, but that are two functions of an immune response afaik01:04
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Prof Sarah Gilbert, Covid vaccine creator: Now let’s take on 12 more diseases → https://is.gd/hQ93fu01:11
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: The success of Merck’s antiviral — and other COVID-19 pills in development: At least three other oral COVID-19 pills are expected to have clinical data by the end of the year → https://is.gd/EVs5sC01:33
BrainstormUpdates for Brunei: +105 cases (now 10356), +5193 tests (now 436396) since a day ago01:39
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Will AstraZeneca Have a Big Market for Its COVID-19 Therapy? - AstraZeneca is using it as a prevention in people who otherwise couldn't develop antibodies → https://is.gd/o1Co8R01:43
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): A recovered COVID tweep says everything smells like cat piss.Another says she smells lemon cake constantly.I got multiple vaxes and frankly everything smells like roses.#GetVaccinated → https://is.gd/EeG4JJ02:15
BrainstormUpdates for Uruguay: +153 cases (now 390915), +1 deaths (now 6067), +7728 tests (now 3.7 million) since a day ago — Paraguay: +19 cases (now 460341), +1 deaths (now 16210), +1871 tests (now 1.9 million) since a day ago02:16
BrainstormUpdates for Rwanda: +61 cases (now 99128), +15851 tests (now 3.0 million) since a day ago — India: +14073 cases (now 34.1 million) since 23 hours ago02:29
de-factohmm damn it, above curve are not exponential functions02:42
de-factothe last page of the veteran study gives the datapoints for each month02:42
de-factoforget the half lifes i posted above, they are wrong02:43
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: US throws out millions of doses of Covid vaccine as world goes wanting → https://is.gd/6Jb29V03:28
de-factook getting somewhere, the relative risk ratio are exponentials03:35
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid outbreak in Delhi shows herd immunity against Delta variant difficult → https://is.gd/tkDuMC03:49
de-factoOK now i am able to perfectly reproduce their graph with the given datapoints and interpolate it with fit functions04:00
de-factoModernaVE[t]  = 1.0 - (0.0729543 ± 0.000280782) * 2 ^ (t / (66.6613 ± 0.192085)) ~ 1 - 0.073 * 2 ^ (t / 67)04:00
de-factoBiontechVE[t] = 1.0 - (0.0854976 ± 0.000384987) * 2 ^ (t / (59.7220 ± 0.176891)) ~ 1 - 0.085 * 2 ^ (t / 60)04:00
de-factoJanssenVE[t]  = 1.0 - (0.1166390 ± 0.000696673) * 2 ^ (t / (50.0673 ± 0.160064)) ~ 1 - 0.117 * 2 ^ (t / 50)04:00
de-factoHence half life is approximately T2_Moderna ~ 67 days; T2_Biontech ~ 60 days; T2_Janssen ~ 50 days04:00
de-factoLjL, so that looks more like it would be consistent with the other literature values04:01
de-factosdfgsdfgs, i had to correct above half life values, those values should be more accurate04:03
MerlinMp[m]<LjL> "de-facto, something to note..." <- Thats interesting. Im curious how many of these post-covid complications can be sensed without detailed medical examination - in at-home group. Just wondering how many people didnt noticed any health problems after covid04:08
BrainstormUpdates for Barbados: +346 cases (now 12773), +5 deaths (now 114), +2231 tests (now 355225) since a day ago — Zimbabwe: +48 cases (now 132333), +2 deaths (now 4657), +3063 tests (now 1.5 million) since a day ago — Mali: +26 cases (now 15603), +2 deaths (now 557), +2646 tests (now 438233) since a day ago04:08
de-factodatapoints for the fits are taken from Table 2 (last page) of https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966v104:09
LjLcovid outbreak in Delhi :(04:10
LjL<Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: US throws out millions of doses of Covid vaccine as world goes wanting → https://is.gd/6Jb29V  ←  this is disgusting04:11
LjLand Reddit, true to itself, removes it as "US internal news" (my ass)04:11
LjL"In the face of global inequities, it’s not as simple as states donating unused vaccines. The doses already distributed to states can’t be repurposed internationally because of bureaucratic and safety concerns around storing the vaccines correctly." blah blah blah blah04:11
LjLde-facto, if we aren't even willing to forget about bureaucratic concerns (and "safety" is still only about bureaucracy i.e. being considered safe in one country but not certified in another), how are we ever going to make real effort to tackle this04:12
LjLit's hopeless04:12
de-factoits not only bureaucracy, its about trust in approvals and quality insurance04:13
LjLyes, i'm sure no countries could just make a leap of faith and trust that US vaccines are safe04:15
LjLwe say it's a war, but then we have all the red tape of normal times04:16
de-factoi was referring to the discussion about patent waivers we had earlier today04:17
de-factobut yeah people dont behave as if they understood to take it serious enough04:18
de-factothats why so many still find fatal outcome, afaik each day 2k in USA and 1k in Russia etc04:18
de-factocorrection 1.3k in USA (on decline) and 1k in Russia (on increase)04:21
de-factodangit Russia looks bad, steep increase of both cases and deaths04:21
de-factohttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/04:21
de-factoonly 31% fully vaccinated in Russia and one of the slowest vaccination rates compared to other EU countries04:24
de-factothats not good, we are just entering the winter and vaccine protection needs at least one and a half months to become effective04:25
de-factoalso it looks like the vaccinations per time in Russia already passed the inflection point of an assumed logistic fit, meaning they could end up at 40%-50% only at some far point in the future if they continue exactly like this https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-fully-vaccinated-covid?country=~RUS04:28
de-facto(the inflection point of a logistic function is where its slope reaches its peak value, hence where it transitions from increase to saturation, this is exactly half its asymptotic value)04:30
BrainstormUpdates for Peru: +814 cases (now 2.2 million), +24 deaths (now 199816), +43164 tests (now 18.5 million) since 21 hours ago04:33
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Heart Damage Plagues Covid Survivors a Year After Infection, Study Shows → https://is.gd/iiAme404:42
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Russia’s daily COVID-19 deaths top 1,000 for first time → https://is.gd/DEceS204:53
de-factobtw in case someone did not get the message behind the fit functions above: the vaccine efficacy wanes with the half life from its initial maximum value (after having completed the doses), and both, the absolute values as well as the waning rates rank vaccine protection as Moderna > BioNTech > Janssen05:05
de-factothis means those that got Janssen in spring really urgently need a booster (best with an mRNA vaccine), the BioNTech need it now or soon, the Moderna may still have a bit of time but will eventually also need one05:06
BrainstormUpdates for Australia: +33 cases (now 143204), +160570 tests (now 41.0 million) since 2 hours ago05:10
de-factowhy am I saying Janssen should get boosted with mRNA? because heterogeneous vaccination schemes seem to reach comparable level of protection (e.g. Janssen boosted with mRNA or mRNA boosted with Janssen yet exception to this is mRNA boosted with mRNA also reaches that level)05:12
de-facto.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.10.21264827v205:12
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Heterologous SARS-CoV-2 Booster Vaccinations: Preliminary Report | medRxiv05:12
de-factolook at the very last page for comparsion graphs05:12
de-facto.title https://imgur.com/a/e93VI81 https://i.imgur.com/uHYcEyQ.jpeg src: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.10.21264827v205:19
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: Heterologous SARS-CoV-2 Booster Vaccinations: Preliminary Report: Binding Antibody and Neutralizing Antibody Titers - Album on Imgur05:19
de-factoanyone from USA wants to predict cases per local region? try https://itsonit.com/05:27
de-facto.title05:27
Brainstormde-facto: From itsonit.com: Home - Pandemic Central05:27
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +53 cases (now 2.1 million) since 12 hours ago — United Kingdom: +42899 cases (now 8.4 million) since 21 hours ago05:35
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US millionaire Robert Durst, sentenced to life, on ventilator with Covid-19 → https://is.gd/ttWqLM05:45
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 818: Thor's hammer: The TWiVers review phase 3 efficacy and safety results for the Novavax COVID-19 vaccine, effects on the neonatal immune system caused by maternal infection with SARS-CoV-2, and NHC, the metabolite of molnupiravir, causes mutations in cellular DNA. → https://is.gd/d2BPRz06:17
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: An extra shot? Where things stand on boosters for three vaccines in the US → https://is.gd/HDnQeJ06:38
sdfgsdfgsso the half life of moderna is 17 more days than JJ06:59
sdfgsdfgsthats not much of a difference06:59
sdfgsdfgsthey both suck06:59
sdfgsdfgsand people need their boosters every once in a while06:59
de-factoyes but JJ starts much lower than Moderna, hence the need for getting a booster sooner07:02
de-factobtw the very latest datapoint for JJ got a p-value of 0.5 or such, hence that one point may be unreliable07:02
BrainstormUpdates for Panama: +164 cases (now 470162), +3 deaths (now 7291), +6420 tests (now 4.0 million) since a day ago07:02
sdfgsdfgsthis will never end you know ?07:03
de-factowell yet that last point is exactly on the fit function that also fits all the other points perfectly for JJ, hence its probably correct07:05
de-factoyeah as long as the pathogen circulates it will continue07:05
de-factoits a constant game, protection, mutation, evasion, update protection, mutation, evasion, ...07:06
sdfgsdfgsit does look like we did our best to make sure it's in circulation for a considerable future07:06
de-factoyes07:06
de-factounfortunately that is really the case07:06
de-factoand it ensures a constant cash river for big pharma07:07
sdfgsdfgsand quite a lot of political changes in acceleration07:07
de-factoimho we would have been better with a strict eradication strategy as early as possible07:07
sdfgsdfgsI've been saying this for a while now, it would have taken just a few weeks of coordinated, complete global shutdown07:08
sdfgsdfgsmaybe not even more than 10 days07:08
de-factowell if such a thing would have been possible yes07:08
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Melbourne, Australia lockdown ending → https://is.gd/qPG6OM07:30
BrainstormUpdates for India: +2335 cases (now 34.1 million), +1100123 tests (now 590.9 million) since 14 hours ago — Lombardy, Italy: +432 cases (now 888500) since a day ago07:40
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: COVID-19 lung X-ray shows vaccine effectiveness - Lungs of a vaccinated vs unvaccinated covid positive patients → https://is.gd/3QmJul08:12
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia’s Melbourne set to end world’s longest lockdowns → https://is.gd/7EZMJY08:44
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: ‘Pandemic absolutely affected my personal style’: Jim Sarbh → https://is.gd/BWr16H09:05
BrainstormUpdates for Georgia: +4581 cases (now 662334), +28 deaths (now 9468), +46123 tests (now 9.6 million) since a day ago — Czechia: +1169 cases (now 1.7 million), +6 deaths (now 30545), +50227 tests (now 39.3 million) since a day ago09:32
BrainstormUpdates for Armenia: +1697 cases (now 281991), +24 deaths (now 5778), +11466 tests (now 1.9 million) since a day ago — Israel: +538 cases (now 1.3 million), +133987 tests (now 28.3 million) since 13 hours ago10:09
BrainstormUpdates for Poland: +2521 cases (now 2.9 million), +1 deaths (now 76112), +28697 tests (now 21.5 million) since a day ago — Slovakia: +1735 cases (now 437385), +13 deaths (now 12846), +8996 tests (now 3.8 million) since a day ago — Laos: +293 cases (now 32029), +2 deaths (now 40), +5622 tests (now 565048) since 23 hours ago11:36
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: More US workers going on strike, weary over long Covid-19 pandemic hours | 16OCT21 → https://is.gd/e8QyM712:24
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Melbourne to ease world’s longest Covid-19 lockdowns as vaccinations rise → https://is.gd/M7W22Q12:35
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BrainstormNew from StatNews: Opinion: Historic yet imperfect: Malaria vaccine brings hope but the fight is far from over: Having a vaccine to fight malaria must not drive complacency but inspire greater focus on eliminating the disease as fast as possible using every available strategy. → https://is.gd/8xF7b713:06
BrainstormUpdates for Zambia: +16 cases (now 209521), +3356 tests (now 2.5 million) since 21 hours ago13:40
leerbi%cases Switzerland13:50
Brainstormleerbi: Switzerland has had 854591 confirmed cases (10.0% of all people) and 11171 deaths (1.3% of cases) as of a day ago. 11.3 million tests were done (7.6% positive). 5.6 million were vaccinated (65.7%). +1 deaths since 10 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Switzerland13:50
Brainstormleerbi: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Switzerland, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it.13:50
leerbi%cases Russia13:51
Brainstormleerbi: Russia has had 8.0 million confirmed cases (5.4% of all people) and 223312 deaths (2.8% of cases) as of 48 minutes ago. 200.0 million tests were done (4.0% positive). 51.3 million were vaccinated (35.0%). +34303 cases, +997 deaths since a day ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Russia13:51
Brainstormleerbi: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Russia, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it.13:51
BrainstormUpdates for Gibraltar: +7 cases (now 5758), +318 tests (now 374987) since a day ago14:05
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): If you want real confidence, wear cloth over your kn95. This will compensate for quite a bit of whatever inadequacy your masking suffers. twitter.com/Ldonahuehjelle… → https://is.gd/sAtpBw14:29
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BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): Entrepreneurs?: Long pole to keep hacking COVIDer GQP away #MakeMoneyDuringCOVID pic.twitter.com/aKhwR3Jel5 → https://is.gd/1tj4lb14:40
BrainstormUpdates for Qatar: +62 cases (now 237929), +5373 tests (now 2.8 million) since 23 hours ago — Denmark: +3 deaths (now 2685), +55028 tests (now 84.8 million) since 22 hours ago15:07
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: HIV Care Disrupted by COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparing 2020 to 2019, investigators saw a reduction in the number of HIV tests, the number of in-person consultations, and new enrollments in care, due to the disruption in HIV care throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. → https://is.gd/9mEfK715:13
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Denise Dewald, MD 🗽 (@denise_dewald): Imagine trying to fight cholera by focusing on vaccine distribution yet neglecting to clean the water.This is basically what the @WHO is doing by ignoring the need for cleaning the air.#COVIDisAirborne → https://is.gd/Z5w9yc15:24
BrainstormUpdates for UAE: +99 cases (now 738586), +2 deaths (now 2120), +317254 tests (now 89.3 million) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +39420 cases (now 8.4 million) since 21 hours ago15:32
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): When doctors are accused of faking covid experiences.The consequences of disinformation and fake news... incredible and disturbing. bmj.com/content/375/bm… → https://is.gd/9lxRSr15:34
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): African swine fever virus in order Asfuvirales, only known dsDNA arbovirus, is causing pig pandemic.theguardian.com/environment/20… → https://is.gd/uSS3Yv15:56
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BrainstormUpdates for Nepal: +385 cases (now 805037), +6 deaths (now 11284), +6966 tests (now 4.3 million) since a day ago16:34
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +9502 cases (now 4.4 million), +25 deaths (now 95449) since 23 hours ago — India: +3390 cases (now 34.1 million), +43 deaths (now 452172) since 23 hours ago16:59
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Until now, the only clinical proof of booster shot effectiveness came from Israel with Pfizer. New data from the UK, in the 1st group (half) boosted age 80+, w/ multiple vaccines, showing benefit vs hospitalizationby @tomhcalver @thesundaytimes thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-… pic.twitter.com/ydhPftuG92 → https://is.gd/wvnIw017:30
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +3672 cases (now 2.1 million), +6 deaths (now 18680) since 12 hours ago — Jordan: +1372 cases (now 841489), +14 deaths (now 10879), +28099 tests (now 10.5 million) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +2168 cases (now 1.7 million) since 21 hours ago17:37
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Sunday 17 October 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/bGqQfp17:41
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +2435 cases (now 4.7 million), +24 deaths (now 131541), +381051 tests (now 97.7 million) since 23 hours ago — Chile: +1513 cases (now 1.7 million), +65170 tests (now 22.7 million) since 23 hours ago18:01
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): COVID19: Evidence for Biological Age Acceleration and Telomere Shortening in COVID-19 Survivors → https://is.gd/Rv1HC418:23
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +5353 cases (now 8.4 million) since 23 hours ago — Greece: +1689 cases (now 693886), +27 deaths (now 15375), +147318 tests (now 23.3 million) since a day ago18:39
wasdUK, more covid or more testing?18:51
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: At Mecca’s Grand Mosque, people pray shoulder-to-shoulder as Saudi Arabia eases Covid norms → https://is.gd/RhydeZ18:54
de-factohttps://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&country=~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day?tab=chart&country=~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~GBR&Metric=Confirmed+c19:01
de-factoases19:01
de-factoid say more covid unfortunately19:01
de-factotest positivity UK https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&country=~GBR and cases UK https://bit.ly/3jd4nai19:03
de-factohonestly its to be expected in the winter with seasonality amplitude for reproduction number of around 40% change from July to Jan19:04
ArsaneritUK and Denmark with their "freedom days" have (exponentially) increasing cases.  Italy and France with their "green pass" restrictions have exponentially declining cases.  Germany with a way somewhere in between has cases being somewhat flat.  Is that accurate?19:05
wasdah ok, that makes sense.  Thanks19:06
de-factohttp://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom;France;Italy;Germany;Denmark&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&leftTrim=50019:09
de-factoyeah somewhat, UK got by far the most cases per capita, UK and Denmark increases, Germany and Italy slow increases, not sure about France19:11
de-factoFrance looks like its decreasing or transitioning to increase or such19:11
de-factobut yeah Freedom Day does not seem to work out well, people just are too stupid19:12
de-factoif i was in charge i would introduce mandatory testing twice a week for everybody19:14
de-factoand try to avoid additional containment measures that way19:15
de-factojust that, decentralized PCR testing infrastructure with as few consumables as possible, localized supply chain19:16
de-factoif every kindergarden, school, university, working place/company, supermarket, pharmacy etc would have a super efficient PCR machine, so everybody must easily and conveniently get a PCR test twice a week (for free of course), where would the pathogen hide?19:19
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: gianluca c 🏴‍☠️🇻🇪 #TeamFauci #MaskUp #no papers (@gianlucac1): UK pandemic equilibrium...as per some italian economists and ROW denialists punditsbut ok u know...we have to live with the virus...like overwhelmed hospitalsnever say "break a leg".....could be lethal in the uk@ThManfredi @Di_SPACE_Lauro [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/A2KZhA19:36
BrainstormUpdates for Burkina Faso: +48 cases (now 14734), +691 tests (now 221703) since 23 hours ago — Djibouti: +13 cases (now 13396), +389 tests (now 230936) since 23 hours ago19:41
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States → https://is.gd/eHJVAU19:57
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): Your average employer, realizing they can finally shuck that vax refusnik loser who was utterly useless before COVID. pic.twitter.com/tCy1xv9ZQc → https://is.gd/nrk3S820:08
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): (plus the UK’s waning problem could also be exacerbated by its greater use of AstraZeneca, since most studies suggest it may wane slightly faster than Pfizer) → https://is.gd/KXLye420:29
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Prof Francois Balloux (@BallouxFrancois): Given the intriguing amnesia that seems to have taken hold of many in the UK about early pandemic COVID-19 policy decisions, I felt it may be worthwhile unearthing a thread from mid-March 2020, when the UK's - and other countries' - policies coalesced.twitter.com/BallouxFrancoi… → https://is.gd/gw0RwK20:40
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Another potential explanation is that the UK vaccinated earlier than rest of Europe, and therefore has manifest more waning of protection, especially among older peopleGraphs by @jburnmurdoch pic.twitter.com/v8tnTvXGIw → https://is.gd/AdAV1i21:01
BrainstormUpdates for Dominican Rep.: +751 cases (now 370451), +3 deaths (now 4087), +5065 tests (now 2.1 million) since a day ago — Namibia: +89 cases (now 128328), +3535 tests (now 730765) since 2 days ago — Maldives: +77 cases (now 86165), +1 deaths (now 238), +3210 tests (now 1.6 million) since a day ago [... want %more?]21:39
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: In Russia, experts are challenging official pandemic figures as too low. They refuse to be silenced. → https://is.gd/KaNt2F21:43
BrainstormNew from COVID tweets: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): • ...and to pre-empt the "if it’s weather/climate, then why no surge in Nordics?"a) I don’t knowb) but my guess would be that the same structural factors that have kept most of the Nordics relatively low-Covid for 18 months are still doing their thing → https://is.gd/8B88G722:25
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +6807 cases (now 4.4 million), +10 deaths (now 95454) since 23 hours ago23:06

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