| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 'Pandemic not over': New Delta variant causes worry in UK amid surge in Covid cases → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qeesq6/pandemic_not_over_new_delta_variant_causes_worry/ | 00:29 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | Oh Lord | 00:30 |
| LjL | How can I have any hope in humans | 00:30 |
| LjL | Interviewer asks person "You know that in the UK we're already at the Delta+ variant. If we continue like this we'll soon be at Gamma" | 00:31 |
| specing | Delta++ | 00:31 |
| specing | Delta+++ | 00:32 |
| specing | etc | 00:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bulgaria: +3354 cases (now 568073), +58 deaths (now 23033), +25321 tests (now 5.3 million) since 22 hours ago — Rwanda: +29 cases (now 99354), +2 deaths (now 1320), +11890 tests (now 3.0 million) since a day ago — Malawi: +10 cases (now 61757), +1005 tests (now 422007) since a day ago | 00:34 |
| Arsanerit | I'd expected we'd have reached omega by now | 00:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Waterford has Ireland's second highest Covid-19 incidence rate despite fact 99.7% of residents are fully vaccinated → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qeexf6/waterford_has_irelands_second_highest_covid19/ | 00:40 |
| de-facto | btw i think Delta Plus refers to any of the AY.?.? B.1.617.2 sub-lineages that may become Variants of Interest (VOI) or even Variants of Concern (VoC) | 00:47 |
| de-facto | so its a very imprecise term, meaning "something worrying emerging from Delta", be it AY.1 in India (B.1.617.2 + K417N) or AY.4.2 in UK (B.1.617.2 with ORF1a: A2529V; S: Y145H; S: A222V) or AY.?.? in ?? (B.1.617.2 with ???) | 00:52 |
| LjL | Did everyone just miss that 1) gamma comes before delta 2) aside from gamma already existing we're already at mu anyway | 00:56 |
| LjL | Or was it obvious but just not all that amusing | 00:56 |
| specing | wasn't there a gamma but it was never a problem? | 00:57 |
| specing | because delta overtook it? | 00:57 |
| LjL | It's the Brazil variant and was definitely a problem for Brazil | 00:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Faroe Is.: +89 cases (now 1537), +3000 tests (now 458000) since 23 hours ago — Namibia: +357 cases (now 128801), +1 deaths (now 3546), +2173 tests (now 739541) since a day ago | 00:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro cited bogus UK report that complete vaccination against CoV2 leads to AIDS on live broadcast → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qef82y/brazilian_president_jair_bolsonaro_cited_bogus_uk/ | 01:00 |
| de-facto | oh LjL i thought that interviewer was referring to the Manaus VoC, i guess i did not assume they just meant they wanted to demonstrate they are can iterate through the greek alphabet lol | 01:02 |
| de-facto | because actually Gamma is more immune evasive than Delta, just not as fit | 01:02 |
| de-facto | same goes for Beta | 01:02 |
| de-facto | or Mu | 01:02 |
| de-facto | or Lambda | 01:02 |
| de-facto | yeah all those names are stupid, we only should use PANGO-Lineages | 01:03 |
| LjL | Let the WHO play with Greek letters it's the only thing they can do | 01:05 |
| de-facto | well no because then people think after delta comes gamma | 01:07 |
| LjL | Well the alternative is going back to places of origin. Nobody in the general public or the media ever called variants with their Pango number | 01:10 |
| de-facto | it probably was just their attempt to make people that refuse PANGO lineages and talk about the Wuhan, Italian, Danish, SA, Brazilian, Indian, Colombian, etc VoC to use the "easy" greek letters instead | 01:10 |
| de-facto | yeah exactly (you were more quickly :) | 01:10 |
| de-facto | on the other side we have terms like "Marburg-Virus" and that is not considered to be discriminating (after the location of their discovery) | 01:12 |
| LjL | Well the WHO has changed their guidelines on naming since then | 01:17 |
| de-facto | LjL, btw did you see the paper i linked earlier about reinfection period estimation for SARS-CoV-2 (in comparison with the other 6 HCoVs)? | 01:17 |
| LjL | No, I've kinda been on mobile all day | 01:18 |
| LjL | But I won't be surprised to learn it's much shorter | 01:18 |
| de-facto | its a really interesting paper trying to estimate the periodicity for reinfection | 01:19 |
| de-facto | "Reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions would likely occur between 3 and 63 months after peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months. This protection is of less than half the duration revealed for the endemic coronaviruses circulating among humans " | 01:19 |
| de-facto | "The rates of decline of antibody levels following infection by SARS-CoV-2 (148–185 days half-life to baseline" | 01:19 |
| de-facto | "In particular, our estimate argues strongly against the claim that a longstanding resolution of the epidemic could arise due to herd immunity from natural infection or that mitigation of the long-term risks of morbidity and mortality can be achieved without vaccination. Relying on herd immunity without widespread vaccination jeopardises millions of lives, entailing high rates of reinfection, morbidity, and death." | 01:19 |
| de-facto | LjL, what i wonder if nAb titer from vaccination would decline with roughly double the speed (half life of ~70 days vs 150 days for recovery), would that mean reinfection roughly each 8 months? | 01:21 |
| de-facto | given the recovery reinfection period was 16 months? | 01:21 |
| de-facto | at least that would be consistent with that i read from other papers about it | 01:22 |
| de-facto | this will become quite important since it was decided that SARS-CoV-2 is desired to become endemic in the human race | 01:23 |
| LjL | Desired and inevitable or only avoidable with sacrifices that are deemed unacceptable are not the same thing | 01:24 |
| LjL | But sure 8 months seems to be roughly the ballpark of "reliable" vaccine duration in most of the recent stuff | 01:24 |
| LjL | I have no idea how we're going to vaccinate everyone on earth every 8 months but maybe that's why I'm not Pfizer's CEO | 01:25 |
| de-facto | yeah ok i take that back with "decided to become endemic" maybe i shoud have said "accepted endemic outcome" which just seems unacceptable to me still | 01:28 |
| de-facto | i still think having a seasonal SARS from now on is a never ending nightmare | 01:29 |
| de-facto | yet its our reality from now on, we have to make the best out of it | 01:30 |
| de-facto | our health minister speaks of "ending the state of national epidemic emergency" by *definition*, i bet he did not even look at the latest reproduction numbers, R~1.3 and constantly rising | 01:31 |
| de-facto | At least for me it looks as if the Minister of Health Jens Spahn decided to withdraw the national legal basis for an Infection Protection Act from the federal states so that they are then left alone with the health problems | 01:34 |
| de-facto | I hope the legislature in the form of the Bundestag does not agree with such madness | 01:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ghana: +213 cases (now 129805), +1 deaths (now 1170), +15246 tests (now 1.8 million) since 4 days ago | 01:36 |
| de-facto | i really dont understand what is going on lately, they make people pay for tests (hence they wont), they make people pay for their quarantine time (hence they wont), now they want to end the national epidemic emergency (hence it wont) | 01:37 |
| LjL | de-facto: I hope they realize declaring the pandemic has come to an end means Pfizer will start charging 150 per dose instead of 20 | 01:38 |
| de-facto | they will achieve exactly the opposite of what they claim to aim for: less people testing will end less infection chains (hence numbers will begin to rise), instead of people paying themselves for quarantine time they will not isolate (hence risk to infect their working colleges), ending the national emergency by definition will lead to a heterogeneous containment concept by every federal state, the only profiteer of all this is the pathogen happily | 01:40 |
| de-facto | spreading | 01:40 |
| de-facto | LjL, lol yeah i did not even think of that one | 01:40 |
| de-facto | its all EXACTLY wrong what they do | 01:40 |
| LjL | And I'm sorry but I can't bring myself to try to find the best out of a neverending nightmare, I've also stopped finding these studies interesting, I only find them horrifying. I hope some more positive people than me will keep finding it all interesting stuff to study though | 01:41 |
| de-facto | well i like to at least have a rough estimate about what to expect, to me the most horrifying scenario is uncertainty, if we know roughly how long immunity lasts we at least can estimate how long we are protected in a given scenario (at least on average) | 01:43 |
| de-facto | and since we do have vaccines that work we dont have to gain our immunity by recovery from infection | 01:43 |
| de-facto | and tbh i still wonder what ever happened to VoC updates and intranasal vaccines | 01:45 |
| de-facto | two things that should be able to further improve the protection that we can give people with vaccinations | 01:45 |
| LjL | nobody is demanding them | 01:46 |
| LjL | the world is divided into pro-vaccine and anti-vaccine | 01:46 |
| de-facto | i mean its clear that current gen vaccines are not going to give us anything like herd immunity (nor does immunity by recovery) | 01:46 |
| LjL | there's barely any "let's talk about which vaccine we're using and why" left | 01:46 |
| de-facto | yeah but we really should evaluate the full potential of what our current technology can achieve | 01:47 |
| de-facto | "good enough" never is a promising approach | 01:47 |
| LjL | there is no "we", i'm not Pfizer | 01:47 |
| LjL | Pfizer wants to maximize their profits with the vaccines they have | 01:47 |
| LjL | the WHO is useless | 01:47 |
| LjL | national governments are worse than useless | 01:47 |
| LjL | people are idiots | 01:48 |
| LjL | the virus isn't | 01:48 |
| LjL | the people who are appointed for vigilance on other people are actually, turns out, the same people | 01:49 |
| de-facto | i mean at least there are some trials ongoing, but i think there should be put more effort into making some progress | 01:50 |
| LjL | see what's his name who happened to be involved with Wuhan lab and America at the same time, and also just so happened to lead the WHO investigation | 01:50 |
| LjL | clowns and not even afraid to be | 01:50 |
| specing | hahaha | 01:51 |
| LjL | and i can't even remember his name even though i heard it all evening so i'm pretty useless too | 01:52 |
| LjL | Peter TheOneWithSzInIt | 01:53 |
| de-facto | well there are always two sides of it, maybe someone with previous knowledge in the team also could mean advantages such as having some knowledge others would not have, but of course also not the neutrality that external recruits would have | 01:53 |
| LjL | oh please | 01:53 |
| LjL | early on in 2020 there was that lancet paper supposedly from oh-so-many scientists saying the virus could only be natural | 01:54 |
| specing | I find it funny how "Vaccines are safe and effective" then one by one they stop vaccinating with AZ, J&J, moderna | 01:54 |
| LjL | that made everybody who said it could have come from a lab leak virtually a scientific heretic | 01:54 |
| de-facto | ah yeah that one, i remember now | 01:54 |
| specing | doesen't really inspire confidence | 01:54 |
| LjL | then turns out that paper was also mainly engineered by that one man | 01:54 |
| LjL | specing, yeah, it's a PR debacle and i don't honestly know how i am supposed to tell anti-vax people who come in here anything meaningful anymore | 01:55 |
| LjL | if i'm offered another shot, i'll take another shot, despite all this ridiculousness. if they're offered a shot, they won't take it, either because of the ridiculousness, or just because they were anti-vax all along. is there any more substance left to it? | 01:56 |
| de-facto | well for the very majority of people those are safe and effective, i would take any of those three without hesitation for boosting | 01:56 |
| LjL | so the Nordic countries were all wrong to withdraw Moderna from use in people 30 and younger? | 01:57 |
| LjL | if they were right, how do we explain it to people? if they were wrong, how do we explain it to people? | 01:57 |
| de-facto | i am not to judge them for their decisions, i personally think it may have been exaggerated | 01:58 |
| LjL | okay, and on a personal value judgment we also decide that these vaccines should be mandatory for everyone | 01:58 |
| LjL | countries don't trust them, "but you should" | 01:58 |
| LjL | it's untenable | 01:59 |
| de-facto | any of those vaccines are much much much more safe than infection, even for adolescents, and for children they now found the lower dosages to be better suited | 02:00 |
| specing | I think that withdrawing them was a big mistake | 02:01 |
| specing | they should just tell hc professionals to prioritise pfizer or something | 02:01 |
| specing | but to still offer them all | 02:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bahrain: +65 cases (now 276526), +16990 tests (now 6.8 million) since a day ago | 02:01 |
| de-facto | here in Germany we have STIKO they do recommendations and MDs follow those | 02:03 |
| de-facto | as far as i remember they always were giving exactly the correct recommendations as soon as something was known (in the preprints and papers) | 02:03 |
| LjL | specing, if i were a scientist on their vaccine teams and my calculations told me that in people below 30, vaccines are very unlikely to cause a death, and covid is also very unlikely to cause a death, but one vs the other, the vaccine is actually more likely to cause a death than covid, i couldn't in good conscience recommend anything other than to suspend the vaccine for those people | 02:03 |
| de-facto | yet the very majority recovers fully and quickly from those very rare cases of myocarditis | 02:06 |
| de-facto | yet we still dont really know if that is the case with long COVID | 02:07 |
| specing | LjL: well, the data said that AZ&J&J do cause more serious effects than mrna, and moderna has a higher number of *carditis cases than pfizer in those age groups | 02:07 |
| specing | LjL: so suspending them would make sense from a purely scientific perspective | 02:07 |
| de-facto | well they also protect better from COVID | 02:08 |
| LjL | specing, so we "follow the science" in words, but actually do whatever is best for PR in practice? | 02:08 |
| de-facto | no all we should follow are stats | 02:08 |
| specing | LjL: we can do both | 02:09 |
| specing | LjL: by having hc professional mention the difference in effects on the spot | 02:09 |
| LjL | that implies letting people choose among vaccines | 02:10 |
| LjL | that is not what has happened here | 02:10 |
| specing | yes | 02:10 |
| LjL | in fact, there's been an active media campaign *against* anyone who wanted choice | 02:10 |
| LjL | so how do we undo all that now? | 02:10 |
| specing | I also think that since this is an emergency, governments should have imported *all* the available vaccines, not just the approved ones | 02:10 |
| LjL | i think way too many likes, mistakes, misguided assumptions and PR disasters have accumulated to untangle | 02:10 |
| de-facto | i knew the diferences back in summer when i accepted the offer of taking Moderna shots, i even remember talking with my father about it on the phone if i should stay on low pulse rates for one or two weeks | 02:10 |
| LjL | good for you that you "accepted the offer" | 02:11 |
| specing | de-facto: were you explained the difference by hc professionals? | 02:11 |
| LjL | 'cause i didn't know what vaccine i was going to get until 5 minutes before getting it | 02:11 |
| LjL | and i was only shown a paper to sign quickly | 02:11 |
| specing | Also making people sign papers is mega stupid | 02:11 |
| specing | the state should have taken on the responsibility | 02:12 |
| de-facto | in fact it seems it was public knowledge because someone else decided against it, preferring Pfizer, also fine, why not | 02:12 |
| LjL | some would say that's because Pfizer has lobbyist in the FDA, EMA, etc | 02:12 |
| LjL | and i can't really prove them wrong | 02:13 |
| de-facto | yes i was informed by a HC professional, but not about comparative risks, only about the risk by the vaccine i was scheduled for | 02:13 |
| de-facto | and the info was accurate and quite complete as far as i remember | 02:13 |
| LjL | i certainly wasn't informed about any "*carditis" | 02:13 |
| de-facto | they even made us watch an informative video (i guess for those that would be too lazy to read through all the paperwork) | 02:14 |
| LjL | i think it's a bit surreal i'm here arguing that, yes, the vaccine rollout was in fact a PR disaster because people were led to expect X and then it turned out it was all pretty Y | 02:15 |
| de-facto | and i remember talking with the medical doc about myocarditis, i asked him if i should stay home and he said "only if you feel weak, otherwise its fine to also go for a walk" | 02:15 |
| specing | LjL: btw, the latest PR-suicide by my government is that they introduced wage bonuses for healthcare teams for getting more people vaccinated | 02:15 |
| LjL | because i think it's apparent but hey maybe i should live in Germany and then it would all seem fine | 02:15 |
| de-facto | i dont completely agree with that but it was a topic in the discussion (i would have advised to always stay in low pulse rate 1-2 weeks as i recommended other people too) | 02:16 |
| LjL | we started with 95%-effective vaccines that were touted as the biggest medical success ever, and that were safe as well as effective. now they are, who knows, 60%, 40%, "oh but they still protect you from death, by, err... 85%? 80% maybe?" and countries have been withdrawing first AZ and now Moderna over safety concerns | 02:17 |
| LjL | you can argue they were wrong to do so, but it happened | 02:17 |
| LjL | i can't see what else the general public could see it as but BAD | 02:17 |
| specing | de-facto: 1-2 weeks of no sports? That's excessive | 02:17 |
| de-facto | yes but more safe | 02:20 |
| de-facto | i did go outdoors in the forrest for walks but not runs | 02:21 |
| de-facto | just to have some moderate movement without high pulse rates | 02:21 |
| de-facto | ok i just looked there was no myocarditis mentioned in the papers i signed but it still was heavily in discussion back in june, yet i definitely talked about it with the MD | 02:23 |
| LjL | from what you said it sounded like you already knew there was *more* of that risk with Moderna than with Pfizer | 02:24 |
| LjL | that was honestly well beyond my understanding or even vague guessing back then | 02:24 |
| de-facto | yes because i thought about if i should decline Moderna and go for Pfizer | 02:24 |
| de-facto | but then i thought, hey the risk is so low and maybe i get better protection, its worth it | 02:25 |
| de-facto | (the better protection was not known back then) | 02:25 |
| de-facto | but i knew that i would have to take maybe 150% of the side effects for potentially better protection (or at least same) than Pfizer | 02:26 |
| de-facto | and i would do it again, it was just fine for me | 02:27 |
| de-facto | i know of a few others that made the same experience | 02:33 |
| de-facto | imho i think the the vaccines seem to work extremely well for personal protection, just not for herd immunity, and honestly i never expected them to achieve that | 02:37 |
| de-facto | back when the very first papers of Moderna were published i remember we discussed with yuri about if they could possibly also help with reducing transmission | 02:38 |
| de-facto | he pointed out that in the monkeys they also were able to *reduce* (but not prevent completely) the viral load in the nasopharyngeal surfaces | 02:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Angola: +84 cases (now 63775), +2 deaths (now 1695), +48912 tests (now 1.1 million) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +45169 cases (now 8.8 million) since 21 hours ago — Mali: +33 cases (now 15809), +2376 tests (now 445849) since a day ago — Netherlands: +5696 cases (now 2.1 million) since 21 hours ago | 02:39 |
| de-facto | so there was hope they would help reducing transmission (at peak of antibody levels) and they do | 02:39 |
| de-facto | so by now we know that they do reduce the secondary attack rate in two person households (breakthrough vs naive infection) by roughly 50% | 02:40 |
| de-facto | on average in the vaccination protection window i assume | 02:40 |
| de-facto | that is exactly in the expectation range i would assume | 02:41 |
| de-facto | as soon as the first comparative incidence rate data for Delta vs Alpha was published i fitted exponentials on them to estimate the relative increase in reproduction number, iirc it was 142% for Germany or such | 02:42 |
| de-facto | i directly mentioned that there will be no herd immunity by vaccinations with such a high base reproduction number | 02:43 |
| de-facto | i dont have any data on how effective intranasal vaccines potentially could be, but i expect them to work much better | 02:43 |
| de-facto | yet we dont know how long such a better protection possibly could last, e.g. if IgA would wane faster and only the residual immune cells (B, T, etc) would stay locally in the mucus there | 02:45 |
| de-facto | i really wonder when we will see some numbers on that, we only now get some papers about the half-life by current gen vaccines and recovery etc | 02:47 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Barbados: +297 cases (now 15050), +2 deaths (now 128), +2299 tests (now 372219) since 23 hours ago | 03:03 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.21.21265216v1 | 03:11 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Generation time of the Alpha and Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants | medRxiv | 03:11 |
| de-facto | "We analysed transmission data from a UK Health Security Agency household study. By fitting a mathematical transmission model to the data, we estimated the generation times for the Alpha and Delta variants." | 03:11 |
| de-facto | "The mean intrinsic generation time (the generation time if there had been a constant supply of susceptibles throughout infection) was shorter for the Delta variant (4.6 days, 95% CrI 4.0-5.4 days) than the Alpha variant (5.5 days, 95% CrI 4.6-6.4 days), although within uncertainty ranges." | 03:12 |
| de-facto | "However, there was a larger difference in the realised mean household generation time between the Delta (3.2 days, 95% CrI 2.4-4.2 days) and Alpha (4.5 days, 95% CrI 3.7-5.4 days) variants. This is because higher transmissibility led to faster susceptible depletion in households, in addition to the reduced intrinsic generation time." | 03:12 |
| de-facto | " The Delta variant transmits more quickly than previously circulating variants. This has implications for interventions such as contact tracing, testing and isolation, which are less effective if the virus is transmitted quickly. Epidemiological models of interventions should be updated to include the shorter generation time of the Delta variant." | 03:13 |
| de-facto | thats quite interesting, afaik many calculations before used a serial time of ts ~ 5.2 days, yet others used 4 days from begin on (e.g. RKI) | 03:16 |
| de-facto | incidence Inc(t) = Inc(t0) * Rt^((t-t0)/ts) with reproduction number Rt = ( Inc(t) / Inc(t0) ) ^ (ts / (t - t0)) and reaching incidence of Inc(tn) / Inc(t0) = N-fold would require the time tN = tn - t0 = ts Ln(N) / Ln(Rt) | 03:23 |
| overclock78 | hello everyone | 03:23 |
| de-facto | hello overclock78 | 03:24 |
| overclock78 | Hi de-facto ... what are the main subtopics here | 03:30 |
| overclock78 | ? | 03:30 |
| overclock78 | vaccine? ou new variants? oralternative treatments? is there a taboo topic ?... | 03:31 |
| de-facto | current developments about SARS-CoV-2 and COVID, e.g. papers and preprints about it, press releases, epidemiology, virology, biology, factual discussion about strategies and treatments, vaccinations, newest datasets etc | 03:32 |
| overclock78 | interesting... very technical then... | 03:33 |
| de-facto | yes new variants definitely, yesterday we discussed AY.4.2 | 03:33 |
| de-facto | what are you interested into? | 03:34 |
| overclock78 | i am not in the technical aspects ...it is not my field ... i am from broadcast, i work in a tv in the signal generation room... and i see everyday so many conflicting stories that I cant figure whats is true or what is not.... so, to answer your question i am interested in learning... | 03:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Panama: +150 cases (now 471403), +1 deaths (now 7307), +6562 tests (now 4.0 million) since a day ago | 03:41 |
| de-facto | cool job, sounds quite interesting and technical :) | 03:41 |
| overclock78 | it is ... very much ... very very technical .... it is the very last room before the signal leaves the station both to the antennas and the cable company to redistribute... | 03:43 |
| overclock78 | nothing to do with media or journalism.... it is basically radio engineering with focus on radio frequencies | 03:44 |
| LjL | overclock78, cool, can you make them stop compressing the signal more and more just to fit completely useless stations in the mux please? | 03:45 |
| LjL | because the MPEG artifacts are getting quite ridiculous | 03:45 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: The durability of immunity against reinfection by SARS-CoV-2: a comparative evolutionary study ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/3SDK6XPX ) | 03:46 | |
| overclock78 | sorry my friend ... that is within the cable company.... our signal is basically uncompressed | 03:46 |
| sdfgsdfg | hopefully this one ruins all the remaining hope and we all go back to lockdowns | 03:47 |
| LjL | well, it's all terrestrial here, not cable, but fair enough | 03:47 |
| sdfgsdfg | A.Y.4.2 AY AY AY | 03:47 |
| sdfgsdfg | there should be a chant for every VoC wave | 03:48 |
| de-facto | AY.4.2 is not such a big step like e.g. from B.1.1.7 to B.1.617.2 | 03:49 |
| sdfgsdfg | the transmission advantage so far has been the winning mutation though | 03:49 |
| de-facto | yeah by maybe like 10%-17% | 03:50 |
| de-facto | e.g. at current prevalence it probably can not cause the increase in UK cases (yet?) | 03:53 |
| de-facto | it would once it contributes more than 50%, now its more like 10% prevalence | 03:53 |
| de-facto | also its quite located on "spots" inside UK still | 03:54 |
| de-facto | so how would we distinguish "founders effect" in those spots from real fitness advantage resulting in increased reproduction numbers= | 03:55 |
| de-facto | https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?lineages=B.1.617.2%2CAY.4.2&colours=6%2C0&colorBy=p&lineage=AY.4.2&scale=linear | 03:55 |
| de-facto | i guess the more it diffuses into wide spread prevalence the more accurate estimates about relative reproduction number will become, e.g. we will see in a few weeks when its not only on some spots but everywhere competing with all the other AY.?? B.1.617.2 sublineages | 03:57 |
| de-facto | with founders effect i mean it possibly could be that in the spots where AY.4.2 is located right now there may be (due to some other reason, like increased contact rate, more seasonal change in human behavior etc) increased transmissibility and thereby also increased repriduction = contact_rate * transmissibility * duration_of_infectiousness | 03:59 |
| overclock78 | de-facto .. is it true that higher transmission rate = lower mortality? | 03:59 |
| de-facto | i think not in general | 04:00 |
| de-facto | it depends on what kind of selection pressure emerges from increased mortality on the pathogen | 04:00 |
| de-facto | and that depends on the average moment of retransmission, e.g. if a carrier already infected the next generation carrier prior to becoming symptomatic or even severely ill (with increased mortality) it only would be an disadvantage for that particular mutation if it would lead to increased tracing | 04:02 |
| de-facto | but if the infection chain can just continue unaffected (eg. as described in the preprint above with B.1.617.2 the serial time only takes about 4.5 days, e.g. average time between two generations) and people only realize later they got infected when becoming some symptoms or even ending in hospital, why would that be a disadvantage for the pathogen? | 04:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +84 cases (now 5638), +28361 tests (now 3.9 million) since 23 hours ago | 04:06 |
| overclock78 | i understand.... it really makes sense... what i hear is that if a patient dies too fast there is no time to spread.... | 04:06 |
| de-facto | yes well only if most spreads would happen in the severe phase of the disease | 04:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Assessment of Cognitive Function in Patients After COVID-19 Infection | 22OCT21 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/qeh6yi/assessment_of_cognitive_function_in_patients/ | 04:08 |
| overclock78 | sure i understand .... it realy does not matter... if it already infected the next generation, doesn't matter how lethal it really is... right? | 04:08 |
| de-facto | i mean so far SARS-CoV-2 became more fit (B.1.617.2 can cause 1000-fold the viral load of the initial A/B-Lineage seen in the early cases in China) and reproduction number increased from maybe R0 = 2.5 to now R0 ~ 6-7 or such | 04:09 |
| de-facto | also it seems that the variants became more aggressive, e.g. the proportion of people that end in hospital or even have fatal outcome increased compared to the very first cases | 04:10 |
| de-facto | yet now treatment got better and we got vaccinations, so that helps a lot with preventing fatal outcomes | 04:10 |
| de-facto | overclock78, well there may be one exception to that: if it was super-lethal, e.g. 50% or such humans would put *much* more effort into its containment, so that would then be a real disadvantage because such a mutant would (hopefully) be traced down then | 04:12 |
| de-facto | disadvantage for such a hypothetical mutant to spread i meant | 04:12 |
| overclock78 | ok... but it has to be super lethal.... | 04:12 |
| de-facto | something like ebola or nipa or such | 04:12 |
| overclock78 | like ebola | 04:13 |
| de-facto | or MERS-CoV etc | 04:13 |
| de-facto | so depending on what behavior is triggered in humans (and where the threshold for the change in behavior is) it may be an advantage for the spread of a virus to not cause too many problems | 04:15 |
| LjL | overclock78, yes if you die too fast you won't have time to spread, but what if the virus still makes you die but waits long enough? with HIV, you spend an average of 12 *years* being completely asymptomatic and able to spread the virus (luckily it's not airborne like this one...). but then you die. | 04:15 |
| LjL | and it's not even like COVID where you have a *chance* of dying: without modern antivirals, you die, with only extremely rare exceptions | 04:16 |
| LjL | that virus is perfectly competent at spreading, and yet, universally fatal | 04:16 |
| LjL | the "will get milder over time to spread better" thing is a myth. it *can* be true for certain viruses in certain circumstances, but it's certainly not a universal truth. | 04:16 |
| overclock78 | sure ... i can see now.... | 04:17 |
| overclock78 | its about the moment of transmission as de-facto said before.... | 04:18 |
| overclock78 | not about how lethal it is | 04:19 |
| de-facto | it may also be linked ot some degree, e.g. if a pathogen got increased fitness for replication in humans it may replicate faster (hence reach infectious concentrations faster) hence be more infectious earlier (even before first symptoms by the immune reaction started) but also more lethal later on | 04:22 |
| de-facto | i think that is the case with B.1..617.2 (aka Delta) compared to its ancestors | 04:23 |
| overclock78 | thats very logical to me... | 04:25 |
| de-facto | there are also different types of fitness: 1) Fitness from better adaptation to the host biology, e.g. more efficient functioning in its reproduction cycle 2) Better evasive capabilities to (universal) innate immunity (e.g. in hosts that never have seen that antigen before) 3) More evasive capabilities (e.g. avoid binding of antibodies raised against an ancestor variant) | 04:26 |
| de-facto | better host adaptation may reach some threshold at some time "fully optimized to human biology", better evasive/suppressive capabilities to innate immunity may also reach some threshold at some time, more evasive capabilities from antigenic drift due to selective pressure from adaptive immunity (e.g. antibodies) usually come at a fitness price (e.g. make it less fit in naive individuals but more fit in individuals with outdated immune signatures) | 04:31 |
| overclock78 | so.. is there something like an efficiency curve? with optimal points? | 04:33 |
| overclock78 | and limitations .... | 04:33 |
| de-facto | so there are variants of SARS-CoV-2 that have more of the adaptation/suppressive fitness (I would guess B.1.617.2 aka Delta) and others may have more evasive capabilities (I would guess B.1.351 aka Beta etc) | 04:33 |
| de-facto | yes sure there probably is an (unknown) *current* optimum (depending on the current circumstances for the pathogen such as what type of immunity is prevalent in the population of potential carriers), as long as the pathogen did not reach that it will increase its reproduction number | 04:35 |
| de-facto | its a super big "trial and error" bruteforcing game, breeding for discovering the current optimum | 04:36 |
| overclock78 | interesting how life and energy (radio waves) have so much in common | 04:36 |
| de-facto | the more processing power (number of viral replications) is put into discovering new optimized mutations the higher the likelihood of their occurrence for a given window of time | 04:37 |
| de-facto | so the more infections happen, the higher the likelihood of a new variant of concern emerging form that | 04:37 |
| de-facto | and also the longer a carrier fights with the virus | 04:37 |
| de-facto | a carrier usually gets contaminated by a very small amount of pathogen, maybe few tens or hundreds of virions may already suffice for kickstarting the initial replication | 04:38 |
| de-facto | meaning with each replication there will be some reading errors, maybe only 1% of the virions produced by each cell are fit enough to infect another cell, hence 99% are just garbage or "failed trials" | 04:39 |
| de-facto | most of the mutations in the remaining 1% are not of any relevance to the pathogen, they dont really affect its function, but increase diversity in the phylogenetic tree inside that individuals body | 04:40 |
| overclock78 | amazing!! that few?? | 04:40 |
| de-facto | from time to time very rarely some reading error is neither a disadvantage nor no difference but an actual advantage for that particular mutation, hence give it an replication edge over its competitors (with unchanged fitness) | 04:41 |
| de-facto | such mutations very quickly will take over all the resources in that hosts body, hence then that host may have created a new more fit variant | 04:42 |
| de-facto | the probability of that occurring in a host will increase with the time the virus can replicate inside that body, so immuno-compromised individuals may be one origin of such mutations | 04:43 |
| overclock78 | guys thanks so much for such great info and to putting up with my completely lack of knowledge of the field ... I would love to stay more but is almost 5 am in madrid .. i sure will be back to learn a little bit more... | 04:45 |
| de-facto | sure here its almost 5am too in Germany :) | 04:46 |
| overclock78 | de-facto thanks so much for sharing your knowledge | 04:46 |
| de-facto | its very fascinating from a theoretical perspective :) | 04:46 |
| overclock78 | it sure is ... very much fascinating!! :) | 04:47 |
| overclock78 | bye everyone! a great weekend to you all | 04:47 |
| de-facto | thanks have a good one too :) | 04:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Peru: +969 cases (now 2.2 million), +16 deaths (now 200019), +42880 tests (now 18.8 million) since a day ago | 05:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Easy Reminder (@ZurNull): @fitterhappierAJ As a thread:1/11"Whether a vaccine mandate for healthcare workers is necessary is predicated on the assumption that reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 will be milder.As such, we have not emphasized vaccination for those who have been infected." → https://twitter.com/ZurNull/status/1452116606042185731 | 05:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 821: Public clonotype #1: A TWiV trio reveal the isolation of novel paramyxoviruses from rodents and bats in Arizona, and isolation of naive B cells from seronegative donors that produce germline encoded antibodies which engage the receptor binding domain of SARS-CoV-2, variants of concern, and [... want %more?] → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-821/ | 06:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +13861 cases (now 4.5 million) since 19 hours ago | 06:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: EU scientists reveal long-term brain damage caused by Covid → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/qel3b1/eu_scientists_reveal_longterm_brain_damage_caused/ | 06:55 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +13512 cases (now 34.2 million), +1340158 tests (now 599.8 million) since 13 hours ago | 07:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Victoria AMA says Covid-deniers and anti-vaxxers should opt out of public health system and ‘let nature run its course’ → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qel4d6/victoria_ama_says_coviddeniers_and_antivaxxers/ | 07:05 |
| Bridgestorm | ❗ 地震预警 / EARTHQUAKE WARNING for Taiwan (just felt near Daxi?) — Follow for updates (www.kmoni.bosai.go.jp) | 07:12 |
| -Bridgestorm- ⭕ 地震! Earthquake! 6.5 M tremor, registered by yurekuru, occurred 2 minutes ago (05:11:25 UTC), during daytime, Daxi, Taiwan (24.74, 121.18) ± 12 km, ↓38 km likely felt 390 km away (in 新北市, 桃園市, 臺北市, 新竹市, 中壢區…) by 16.5 million people with maximum intensity Shindo 3 → https://twitter.com/yurekuru/status/1452140823412240391 — Webcams: https://www.windy.com/webcams/1622783202 | 07:14 | |
| -Bridgestorm- https://www.windy.com/webcams/1622348096 https://www.windy.com/webcams/1625734792 (Twitter) | 07:14 | |
| -Bridgestorm- 🏠 地震! Earthquake! 6.0 Mw tremor, registered by EMSC, occurred 16 minutes ago (05:11:33 UTC), during daytime, Yilan, Taiwan (24.6, 121.91), ↓25 km likely felt 270 km away (in 新北市, 臺北市, 桃園市, 羅東鎮, 蘇澳鎮…) by 10.1 million people — Webcams: https://www.windy.com/webcams/1602988982 https://www.windy.com/webcams/1631417180 https://www.windy.com/webcams/1615332296 (www.seismicportal.eu) | 07:28 | |
| -Bridgestorm- ⭕ 地震! Earthquake! 6.2 Mww tremor, registered by EMSC,US, occurred 22 minutes ago (05:11:34 UTC), during daytime, Yilan, Taiwan (24.57, 121.83), ↓64 km likely felt 310 km away (in 新北市, 臺北市, 桃園市, 羅東鎮, 冬山鄉…) by 10.6 million people — Webcams: https://www.windy.com/webcams/1602988982 https://www.windy.com/webcams/1631417180 https://www.windy.com/webcams/1615332296 (service.iris.edu) | 07:33 | |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Vaupes, Colombia: +24 cases (now 1779) since a day ago — Lombardy, Italy: +390 cases (now 890932), +2 deaths (now 34137) since a day ago — Ningxia, China: +6 cases (now 94) since a day ago — Atacama, Chile: +1 deaths (now 358) since 6 days ago | 07:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: American billionaires added $2.1 trillion to their fortunes during the pandemic → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qelzxd/american_billionaires_added_21_trillion_to_their/ | 08:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | October 24, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/qemxxg/daily_discussion_thread_october_24_2021/ | 09:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Czechia: +2768 cases (now 1.7 million), +7 deaths (now 30615), +64861 tests (now 39.9 million) since 23 hours ago | 09:29 |
| sdfgsdfg | we had to give taiwan some earthquake | 09:44 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Taiwan: +4 cases (now 16368), +26504 tests (now 7.2 million) since 23 hours ago | 10:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Armenia: +2354 cases (now 295368), +38 deaths (now 6013), +16915 tests (now 2.0 million) since a day ago — Estonia: +1787 cases (now 182039), +7 deaths (now 1461), +9137 tests (now 2.1 million) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +13862 cases (now 4.5 million) since 23 hours ago | 10:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: African effort to replicate mRNA vaccine targets disparities → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qenr13/african_effort_to_replicate_mrna_vaccine_targets/ | 10:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: As Russia shuts down, Putin 'can't understand what's going on' with vaccine hesitancy → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qenwvp/as_russia_shuts_down_putin_cant_understand_whats/ | 10:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Spain is reimbursing residents who were fined for violating COVID-19 lockdown rules → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qeo3cj/spain_is_reimbursing_residents_who_were_fined_for/ | 10:55 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Austria: +3624 cases (now 798606), +6 deaths (now 11251), +314239 tests (now 94.9 million) since 23 hours ago — Laos: +648 cases (now 35633), +2 deaths (now 52), +6838 tests (now 599310) since 23 hours ago | 11:33 |
| darsie | austria | 11:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Melbourne to ease more COVID curbs as 80% vaccination rate nears → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/melbourne-to-ease-more-covid-curbs-as-80-vaccination-rate-nears-7588010/ | 12:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Poland: +4727 cases (now 3.0 million), +13 deaths (now 76447), +85738 tests (now 21.8 million) since a day ago | 12:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US urges North Korea to stop missile tests and return to talks → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/us-urges-north-korea-to-stop-missile-tests-and-return-to-talks-7588031/ | 12:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Latvia: +2252 cases (now 202573), +10 deaths (now 3028), +11246 tests (now 4.8 million) since 23 hours ago — Indonesia: +623 cases (now 4.2 million), +29 deaths (now 143205), +775887 vaccines (now 112.3 million), +214745 tests (now 45.0 million) since a day ago — Hong Kong: +4 cases (now 12324), +4536 vaccines (now 4.6 million) since a day ago | 13:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China says 76% of population have received complete doses of Covid-19 vaccines → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qepugl/china_says_76_of_population_have_received/ | 13:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Romania: +11725 cases (now 1.6 million), +389 deaths (now 44679), +42786 tests (now 14.3 million) since 23 hours ago — Gibraltar: +16 cases (now 5874), +369 tests (now 380581) since 23 hours ago | 13:38 |
| darsie | China says | 14:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +522 cases (now 809056), +3 deaths (now 11348), +6061 tests (now 4.4 million) since 23 hours ago — Brunei: +212 cases (now 12113), +4944 tests (now 473531) since 22 hours ago | 14:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +12011 cases (now 4.5 million) since 15 hours ago — United Kingdom: +45071 cases (now 8.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 14:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Senegal: +2 cases (now 73893), +1 deaths (now 1878), +1367 tests (now 831320) since 23 hours ago | 15:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Scientists have shown for the first time that coronavirus vaccines and prior coronavirus infections can provide broad immunity against other, similar coronaviruses. The findings build a rationale for universal coronavirus vaccines that could [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/qer0lz/scientists_have_shown_for_the_first_time_that/ | 15:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Oral curcumin with piperine significantly improved COVID-19 treatment by reducing the days of symptoms (fever, cough, sore throat, breathlessness), oxygen requirement, remdesivir injections, days of mechanical ventilation and hospitalization, and number [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/qermg1/oral_curcumin_with_piperine_significantly/ | 15:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belarus: +2044 cases (now 586234), +16 deaths (now 4515), +42213 tests (now 9.4 million) since 23 hours ago — Qatar: +82 cases (now 238518), +1 deaths (now 609), +6338 tests (now 2.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 15:30 |
| xrogaan_ | %title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-021-00926-1 | 16:04 |
| Brainstorm | xrogaan_: From www.nature.com: The SARS-CoV-2 main protease Mpro causes microvascular brain pathology by cleaving NEMO in brain endothelial cells | Nature Neuroscience | 16:04 |
| xrogaan_ | woopsie? | 16:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +275 cases (now 1.6 million), +9 deaths (now 27823), +18485 tests (now 10.2 million) since a day ago — UAE: +94 cases (now 739284), +1 deaths (now 2130), +230026 tests (now 91.3 million) since a day ago — Zambia: +5 cases (now 209634), +3188 tests (now 2.6 million) since a day ago | 16:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Twitter accounts tied to China lied that COVID came from Maine lobsters → https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/qes9qz/twitter_accounts_tied_to_china_lied_that_covid/ | 16:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Namibia to suspend use of Russian COVID-19 vaccine - ministry → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qesqvg/namibia_to_suspend_use_of_russian_covid19_vaccine/ | 16:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +1123 cases (now 1.7 million), +11 deaths (now 28798) since 23 hours ago — Namibia: +23 cases (now 128824), +4 deaths (now 3550), +1550 tests (now 741091) since 15 hours ago | 16:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Former French politician charged with terrorism in right-wing plot to attack vaccine centers → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qet741/former_french_politician_charged_with_terrorism/ | 16:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Jordan: +1652 cases (now 851410), +10 deaths (now 10951), +30590 tests (now 10.7 million) since 23 hours ago — India: +1917 cases (now 34.2 million), +23 deaths (now 454324) since 21 hours ago | 17:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Thousands of workers across the U.S. would rather lose their jobs than be vaccinated → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/qet8xp/thousands_of_workers_across_the_us_would_rather/ | 17:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +6304 cases (now 2.1 million), +1 deaths (now 18751) since 14 hours ago — Chile: +1811 cases (now 1.7 million), +70569 tests (now 23.1 million) since a day ago | 17:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Sunday 24 October 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/qeucn7/sunday_24_october_2021_update/ | 17:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): IMO- If the WORST we reasonably suspect happened in a Wuhan lab, China wouldn't even look negligent- it was a random bat virus took off. Who knew?Likewise- Fauci reluctance to admit NIAID funded GoF is an embarrassment, but hardly dispositive of anything. → https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1452300409784127489 | 17:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +3723 cases (now 4.7 million), +24 deaths (now 131826), +403715 tests (now 101.0 million) since 23 hours ago — Dominican Rep.: +727 cases (now 376272), +2 deaths (now 4108), +5478 tests (now 2.2 million) since 23 hours ago | 17:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Greece: +2075 cases (now 716358), +30 deaths (now 15628), +148938 tests (now 24.7 million) since a day ago | 18:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +38761 cases (now 8.8 million), +72 deaths (now 139950) since 17 hours ago | 19:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Vaccinated People May Be Even Less Likely to Transmit COVID-19 Than Previously Thought → https://is.gd/XyzZGo | 20:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +14517 cases (now 34.2 million), +442 deaths (now 454743) since 21 hours ago — Canada: +1110 cases (now 1.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 20:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): If your friend or family member gave you a "cold" that wasn't COVID you are really lucky. Buy a Powerball tik. → https://is.gd/eCvC6X | 20:51 |
| LjL | i can't listen to what they say on TV about the vaccines anymore | 21:14 |
| LjL | they've not even mentioned Scandinavia's stop to Moderna in under 30 | 21:14 |
| LjL | but they readily say it's definitely fine for 5-11 and "it's probably the safest vaccine we've ever had" and anything against that is "infodemics" | 21:14 |
| LjL | but the AZ stop? now the Moderna stop? | 21:14 |
| LjL | maybe they were not warranted | 21:14 |
| LjL | but you can't have entire countries (including this one) stop a vaccine because of security concern | 21:15 |
| LjL | and then say "it's the safest vaccine we've ever had" | 21:15 |
| LjL | THAT IS FUCKING CONFLICTING MESSAGING | 21:15 |
| LjL | A FIVE YEAR OLD WOULD GET THAT | 21:15 |
| LjL | jesus | 21:15 |
| * dTal brews a nice cup of herbal tea for LjL | 21:19 | |
| Arsanerit | LjL: who are "they"? politicians or scientists? | 21:20 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, Italian scientists who are political advisors | 21:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Health officials say Israel could start vaccinating kids 5-11 by mid-November → https://is.gd/BOhsqo | 21:22 |
| LjL | i didn't even know that Italy has now opened third doses to all people over 60 as long as 6 months have passed from the last dose (so not many, for now, but still, i was left at "people over 80 and fragile") | 21:24 |
| LjL | because i don't listen to these things anymore | 21:24 |
| LjL | so i didn't know, now i listened, and i learned about it | 21:24 |
| LjL | but i had to stop listening anyway because i was getting mad | 21:24 |
| LjL | good job alienating me but keeping the anti-vax on the ball, Italy | 21:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: In Major Shift, NIH Admits Funding Risky Virus Research in Wuhan - The "conspiracy theorists" were 100% right → https://is.gd/eGaj5g | 21:33 |
| Arsanerit | how good is Brainstorms bullshit filter? | 21:39 |
| LjL | as good as the people hitting the Report button before it gets popular enough for Brainstorm to post it | 21:41 |
| LjL | but also that headline is accurately on vanityfair except for the part before "-" | 21:42 |
| LjL | err, after | 21:42 |
| p0indexter | unfortuntaly gain of function research was documented as occuring and is an old story | 21:42 |
| p0indexter | aaand funded by NIH | 21:45 |
| LjL | and one commentator in the thread says "This has already been debunked. Yes, NIH funds did go to wuhan, but no, they did not fund the development of Covid-19." | 21:47 |
| LjL | i bet most people would be surprised to hear the first part even given the second part | 21:47 |
| LjL | so basically the headline is sensationalized even before it got on reddit (though the reddit poster did it even more), but the topic is actually kind of important and not a "conspiracy theory" per se | 21:49 |
| specing | Is there proof that they didn't fund covid? | 21:49 |
| specing | last I heard they weren't very keen on allowing inspections or anything | 21:49 |
| p0indexter | fair points | 21:50 |
| LjL | specing, no, though to be fair proving a negative is always kinda tricky | 21:50 |
| LjL | there are fair amounts of evidence that this person https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Daszak is sketchy | 21:51 |
| p0indexter | but its not a negative as it was stated as a fact by someone. | 21:51 |
| LjL | uh, that doesn't make it not a negative | 21:53 |
| p0indexter | prove its not a negative | 21:54 |
| p0indexter | dont make me get existential on you | 21:55 |
| LjL | anyway, it's kind of interesting that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Daszak#COVID-19_pandemic doesn't really seem to mention that he was on the WHO committee for finding the origins | 21:56 |
| LjL | but the rest of the section is interesting enough regardless | 21:56 |
| LjL | i'm sure the talk page for that article is very interesting | 21:56 |
| dzho | > Questions have been raised about whether this NIH-funded research had a role in the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. In this regard, the chimeric viruses that were studied (i.e., the WIV-1 virus with the various spike proteins obtained from bat viruses found in nature) were so far distant from an evolutionary standpoint from SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 1) that they could not have possibly been the source of SARS-CoV-2 or | 21:58 |
| dzho | the COVID-19 pandemic. | 21:58 |
| LjL | but here is the lancet addendum where they mention that whoops, Daszak had failed to indicate conflict of interest when he co-authored the famous "it's natural" Lancet report | 21:59 |
| LjL | %title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01377-5/fulltext | 21:59 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.thelancet.com: Addendum: competing interests and the origins of SARS-CoV-2 - The Lancet | 21:59 |
| LjL | dzho, is that conclusion based on the Lancet paper involved? :P | 21:59 |
| dzho | LjL: it's from a link given in the VF article | 22:00 |
| dzho | https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/coronavirus-bat-research | 22:00 |
| LjL | okay, well, that doesn't reference where the claim is from | 22:00 |
| LjL | the claim as such is certainly found in the Lancet paper that first claimed the virus couldn't be but natural | 22:00 |
| LjL | pretty much all science went with it and pretty much every scientist who tried to say otherwise was ostracized as a conspiracy theorist, in 2020 | 22:01 |
| LjL | anyway if you read "The US National Institutes of Health (NIH) has reinstated a research organization’s multimillion-dollar grant to study how coronaviruses move from bats to people — which it cancelled in a controversial move earlier this year." would you think of any particular research or researcher involved? | 22:02 |
| LjL | because that's from https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02473-4 and the researcher is again Peter Daszak | 22:02 |
| LjL | clearly a lot has been meddled with. i'm not going to believe "yeah they were bat coronaviruses with spike proteins and relationships to SARS but they were not *this* coronaviruses" just based on the NIH saying so, especially when the NIH is claimed to be involved in the whole thing | 22:03 |
| LjL | and by "claimed" i mean "it's on Nature that it was" | 22:03 |
| LjL | %title https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/uk-scientist-centre-pandemic-origins-debate-removed-inquiry/ | 22:06 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.telegraph.co.uk: UK scientist with links to Wuhan lab 'recuses himself' from inquiry into Covid origins | 22:06 |
| LjL | that is a convenient way not to show up on the Wikipedia article about him as part of the WHO "inquiry into Covid origins"... | 22:07 |
| LjL | %title https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2414 | 22:07 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.bmj.com: Covid-19: Lancet investigation into origin of pandemic shuts down over bias risk | The BMJ | 22:07 |
| dzho | LjL: it's not just an "is/is not" binary. They're talking about having a certain quantified phylogenetic distance. That's the sort of detail that if you'd asked me about in 2019 I'd be concerned about not enough people being familiar with these phylogenies, such that we'd be relying on the people making these claims. | 22:20 |
| dzho | but now a lot of people in a lot of places are determining a lot of sequences for a lot of different COVID-19 variants. | 22:20 |
| dzho | So, there are a huge number of spotlights trained on this sort of information. | 22:21 |
| LjL | sure, except not | 22:22 |
| dzho | ok | 22:22 |
| LjL | i've been saying why these spotlights are being shifted away from the start | 22:22 |
| LjL | i'm tired of sayng it | 22:22 |
| LjL | even now that the spotlight *is* finally going back (tentatively) to the lab leak origin | 22:23 |
| LjL | most people are just saying the same as you are | 22:23 |
| LjL | or posting editorialized headlines that discredit the whole idea, like the above | 22:23 |
| LjL | again, this is a compendium of the links i posted above https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qez26o/in_major_shift_nih_admits_funding_risky_virus/hhwk8ey/ | 22:23 |
| dzho | > “The Laos finding does not move the needle at all,” says Gilles Demaneuf, a data scientist who is part of an internet-based group called DRASTIC that has defended the lab-origin hypothesis from what it sees as unwarranted attacks. “It is perfectly compatible with both hypotheses.” | 22:23 |
| LjL | they certainly should raise eyebrows instead of making anyone go "eh but it's natural, we know by now" | 22:23 |
| LjL | if they don't, i don't know what more to do | 22:23 |
| LjL | dzho, | 22:24 |
| LjL | the claim here was the NIH did something | 22:24 |
| LjL | you posted a contradiction to that | 22:24 |
| LjL | when asked where that came from | 22:24 |
| LjL | yoou linked to a page on the NIH site | 22:24 |
| LjL | do you see the problem with that? | 22:24 |
| dzho | I posted a link from the VF site. | 22:24 |
| LjL | yes, the problem remains | 22:24 |
| dzho | ok | 22:24 |
| LjL | and THAT page does not cite its source | 22:24 |
| dzho | it's got several refs in it | 22:25 |
| dzho | I haven't looked at them all yet | 22:25 |
| dzho | the quote I just posted is from another one of them | 22:25 |
| dzho | are you going to argue against that quote now, or does it fit your view of the matter? | 22:25 |
| dzho | oh, heh | 22:26 |
| dzho | 20:25 -!- LjL [~ljl@user/ljl] has left ##covid-19 [Leaving] | 22:27 |
| dzho | I guess not | 22:27 |
| dzho | LjL-Matrix: ^^^ | 22:27 |
| LjL-Matrix | "heh" | 22:28 |
| LjL-Matrix | Let's do it this way, you also get your own fucking bot | 22:28 |
| LjL-Matrix | please don't highlight me anymore | 22:29 |
| dzho | anyway I figure that if Wuhan researches had any role to play in this it is much more likely to be a leak than something more nefarious | 22:33 |
| dzho | "never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence" | 22:33 |
| dzho | on review, I was highlighted first | 22:34 |
| dzho | so I expect the same courtesy | 22:34 |
| Dredd | Seems like an disagreement has got a bit out of hand in here so can all involved drop it for a while and cool off please? | 22:56 |
| dzho | yeah, sure. I'm not even sure what the disagreement is. | 22:56 |
| dzho | I've got some things to talk about from the bmj link posted above but I can hold off on that. It's not like we haven't been at this for >1 year already :( | 22:57 |
| sdfgsdfg | I wouldn't have expected such a half assed job from U.S of blaming it on china though. Whole thing has always been suspicious and will remain as suspicious as JFK assassination | 23:57 |
| sdfgsdfg | it's nothing like some 5G health safety conspiracy | 23:58 |
| Arsanerit | 5G is dangerous for safety because it uses some frequencies that microwave sounders need for temperature sounding, therefore it worsers the initial state of weather models and reduces the lead time at which hurricanes can be forecast | 23:59 |
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