Brainstorm | Updates for Bahrain: +31 cases (now 276749), +16148 tests (now 6.9 million) since 23 hours ago | 00:03 |
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Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Prof Francois Balloux (@BallouxFrancois): I can understand how the amount of data released about COVID-19 on a daily basis feels overwhelming for anyone, irrespective of training, prior expertise and/or ideology. It may cause stack overflow the human brain likely didn't evolve to handle [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1454206864367947781 | 00:05 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): the benefit of a 3rd dose in reducing transmission is sizeable and increases with vaccine coverage and contact rates among individuals. → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1454207390023405575 | 00:15 |
Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): Noam Barda, Noa Dagan, Cyrille Cohen, Miguel A Hernán, Marc Lipsitch, Isaac S Kohane, Ben Y Reis, Ran D Balicer: [Articles] Effectiveness of a third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for preventing severe outcomes in Israel: an observational study → https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02249-2/fulltext | 00:37 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Rwanda: +63 cases (now 99628), +1 deaths (now 1328), +21212 tests (now 3.1 million) since a day ago | 00:40 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): VISION Network; 7000 people: unvaccinated but with a previous COVID-19 infection 5.5x more likely to get a new COVID-19 infection than those who had received an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1454217146163240961 | 00:47 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Bulgaria: +5256 cases (now 598199), +154 deaths (now 23872), +53290 tests (now 5.5 million) since 23 hours ago — Argentina: +1373 cases (now 5.3 million), +19 deaths (now 115935), +48650 tests (now 25.1 million) since 23 hours ago — Faroe Is.: +81 cases (now 2011), +8000 tests (now 478000) since 22 hours ago | 01:05 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Dr. Michael B. Riordan (@michael_riordan): Throughout the pandemic, children have been told by people like Dr Alwan they must suffer to protect the rest of us from a disease that presents itself only mildly in children. And we are the ‘childists’? Orwell would be stumped at the level [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michael_riordan/status/1454220773455970306 | 01:18 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: US intel doesn't expect to determine origins of COVID-19 → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qiotan/us_intel_doesnt_expect_to_determine_origins_of/ | 01:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Uruguay: +315 cases (now 393454), +1 deaths (now 6077), +10611 tests (now 3.8 million) since 23 hours ago — Paraguay: +30 cases (now 460974), +2 deaths (now 16245), +1922 tests (now 1.9 million) since 23 hours ago | 01:30 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Mayotte: +58 cases (now 20555), +3 deaths (now 185) since 3 days ago — Gabon: +273 cases (now 35525), +4 deaths (now 239), +7100 tests (now 1.3 million) since a day ago | 02:07 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Barbados: +369 cases (now 17151), +2313 tests (now 385001) since a day ago — India: +13562 cases (now 34.3 million), +552 deaths (now 457773) since 20 hours ago — Curacao: +9 cases (now 17062), +3389 tests (now 311127) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +43168 cases (now 9.0 million) since 21 hours ago | 02:32 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Pfizer and BioNTech Receive First U.S. FDA Emergency Use | 29OCT21 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/qiqkvv/pfizer_and_biontech_receive_first_us_fda/ | 03:02 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Djibouti: +6 cases (now 13478), +1493 tests (now 235917) since a day ago | 03:09 |
lastshell | 4 booster is true ? | 03:18 |
specing | lastshell: covid vaccines seem to be like workout.. if you don't workout then your muscles get weak | 03:20 |
specing | booster is now highly encouraged for everyone after 6 months past vaccination | 03:21 |
lastshell | well I workout :D | 03:21 |
specing | lastshell: your immune system needs a workout as well | 03:21 |
lastshell | so now will be every 6 months | 03:22 |
specing | seems so | 03:22 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Tonga reports its first ever COVID-19 case of the pandemic in traveller from New Zealand → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qiqml8/tonga_reports_its_first_ever_covid19_case_of_the/ | 03:23 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: COVID roundup: All adults have been offered at least one shot, health minister says | 29OCT21 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/qir21g/covid_roundup_all_adults_have_been_offered_at/ | 03:34 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Panama: +201 cases (now 472398), +1 deaths (now 7315), +7996 tests (now 4.1 million) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +7423 cases (now 2.2 million) since 23 hours ago — Bermuda: +10 cases (now 5647), +1 deaths (now 101), +3855 tests (now 593903) since a day ago | 03:34 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Third COVID shot reduces hospitalization by 93%, mortality by 81% → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qirrt5/third_covid_shot_reduces_hospitalization_by_93/ | 04:26 |
Brainstorm | Updates for South Korea: +2103 cases (now 362639), +13 deaths (now 2830), +44914 tests (now 15.8 million) since 23 hours ago — New Zealand: +162 cases (now 6286), +28925 tests (now 4.1 million) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +43258 cases (now 9.0 million), +187 deaths (now 140815) since 23 hours ago | 04:36 |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Effectiveness of a third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for preventing severe outcomes in Israel: an observational study ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/855GEJE5 ) | 05:12 | |
Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: Science and Medicine: In a previous article, I explored what I thought it meant to be anti-vaccine. In that article I wrote, “the core that unites anti-vaccine thought is: 1) inappropriate minimization of the risk of the virus, and 2) inappropriate minimization of the safety and efficacy of the [... want %more?] → https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/69268-2/ | 05:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +8737 cases (now 1.4 million), +18 deaths (now 25994) since a day ago | 05:38 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: If Covid-19 Came From Wuhan Lab, It Wasn’t Engineered, U.S. Spy Agencies Say → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/qit4pw/if_covid19_came_from_wuhan_lab_it_wasnt/ | 05:40 |
Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 823: COVID-19 clinical update #86 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #86, Dr. Griffin discusses virologic features of infection in children, antibody tests should not be used to asses level of protection, test-to-stay programs in schools, FDA authorizes Moderna boosters, results of [... want %more?] → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-823/ | 06:12 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: 12 states sue Biden administration over Covid-19 vaccine rule → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/12-states-sue-biden-administration-covid-19-vaccine-mandate-7598429/ | 06:33 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +21959 cases (now 4.6 million) since 19 hours ago — Peru: +840 cases (now 2.2 million), +18 deaths (now 200197), +43898 tests (now 19.0 million) since a day ago — India: +11751 cases (now 34.3 million) since 13 hours ago | 06:41 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: FDA paves way for Pfizer Covid-19 vaccinations in young kids → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/fda-paves-way-for-pfizer-covid-19-vaccinations-in-young-kids-7598450/ | 06:43 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19 origins may never be known, US intelligence agencies say → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qiu3xw/covid19_origins_may_never_be_known_us/ | 06:54 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: La stessa procedura si fa con l'antrace, e poi ci vogliono far credere che il vaccino è come un aspirina → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_ITALIA/comments/qiuo8e/la_stessa_procedura_si_fa_con_lantrace_e_poi_ci/ | 07:25 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Thuringen, Germany: +2590 cases (now 151720), +23 deaths (now 4507) since a day ago — Chernihiv Oblast, Ukraine: +1113 cases (now 72290), +14 deaths (now 1660) since 23 hours ago — Unknown, Netherlands: +62 cases (now 7102) since 23 hours ago — Mayotte, France: +58 cases (now 20555), +3 deaths (now 185) since 3 days ago | 07:30 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US Supreme Court rejects religious challenge to Maine vaccine mandate → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/us-supreme-court-rejects-religious-challenge-to-maine-vaccine-mandate-7598474/ | 07:56 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | October 30, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/qiw0up/daily_discussion_thread_october_30_2021/ | 09:09 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Czechia: +5735 cases (now 1.8 million), +31 deaths (now 30736), +210019 tests (now 40.5 million) since 23 hours ago | 09:10 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Georgia: +4610 cases (now 715865), +42 deaths (now 10003), +55815 tests (now 10.2 million) since a day ago — Armenia: +2193 cases (now 306739), +52 deaths (now 6284), +14574 tests (now 2.1 million) since 22 hours ago | 09:35 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Lithuania: +3044 cases (now 406095), +33 deaths (now 5833), +24635 tests (now 5.6 million) since 23 hours ago | 10:00 |
leerbi | %cases Switzerland | 10:01 |
Brainstorm | leerbi: Switzerland has had 872558 confirmed cases (10.2% of all people) and 11540 deaths (1.3% of cases) as of 17 hours ago. 11.6 million tests were done (7.5% positive). 5.7 million were vaccinated (66.5%). +2 cases since 2 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Switzerland | 10:01 |
Brainstorm | leerbi: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Switzerland, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it. | 10:01 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Study suggests COVID-19 stress has spurred nightmares revolving around themes like confinement and apocalypse scenarios → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/qiwf0d/study_suggests_covid19_stress_has_spurred/ | 10:21 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Assessment of Cognitive Function in Patients After COVID-19 Infection → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/qix6h2/assessment_of_cognitive_function_in_patients/ | 10:31 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Cayman Is.: +154 cases (now 1650) since a day ago — Germany: +21961 cases (now 4.6 million) since 23 hours ago | 10:37 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Dumb people gonna dumb: submitted by /u/CerebralGladiator to r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/qixc0i/dumb_people_gonna_dumb/ | 10:52 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Slovakia: +5142 cases (now 479737), +18 deaths (now 13018), +17638 tests (now 3.9 million) since 23 hours ago | 11:02 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Poland: +9806 cases (now 3.0 million), +115 deaths (now 76990), +59181 tests (now 22.1 million) since a day ago — Austria: +6102 cases (now 825297), +12 deaths (now 11345), +338420 tests (now 96.9 million) since 23 hours ago | 11:39 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: COVID-19 can cause diabetes, experts find → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/qiy8to/covid19_can_cause_diabetes_experts_find/ | 11:54 |
sdfgsdfg | covid 19 can cause diabetes ? lol wtf | 11:55 |
sdfgsdfg | looking forward to see "it can give you HIV" news | 11:55 |
sdfgsdfg | that would be biblical | 11:55 |
sdfgsdfg | covid is probably over soon | 11:56 |
Arsanerit | sdfgsdfg: Why do you find that amusing? | 11:59 |
Arsanerit | and what does the bible have to do with anything? There was neither covid nor HIV back then and the authors were not familiar with diabetes. | 11:59 |
sdfgsdfg | what the fuck ? how do you jump to these conclusions | 11:59 |
sdfgsdfg | what made you think I'm amused ? | 11:59 |
Arsanerit | sdfgsdfg: You wrote "lol", which means "laughing out loud". In human behaviour, laughing is usually an expression of joy or amusement. | 12:00 |
Arsanerit | Why were you laughing out loud? | 12:00 |
sdfgsdfg | you are really bad at interpreting things | 12:00 |
sdfgsdfg | you're the kind that takes things too literally | 12:01 |
sdfgsdfg | which is why you're probably about 55 - 60 years old | 12:01 |
sdfgsdfg | you learned about lol expression and now you think we are all rolling on floor | 12:01 |
sdfgsdfg | and your fancy words still dont justify your jumping to conclusions | 12:01 |
sdfgsdfg | it was a random expression of excitement | 12:01 |
sdfgsdfg | to be even more vague | 12:01 |
sdfgsdfg | for the record I also think that you're shit at understanding poems | 12:02 |
sdfgsdfg | probably! :P | 12:02 |
MerlinMp[m] | I would agree even flu could cause million other diseases in case of 1% infected | 12:02 |
Arsanerit | sdfgsdfg: I am 36 years old and I interpreted "lol" and "rofl" in exactly the same way as I did today ten or fifteen years ago. | 12:03 |
sdfgsdfg | yeah as if new variants wasn't enough, I'm also frustrated | 12:03 |
sdfgsdfg | I'm not sure what expression I should be using for Arsanerit now | 12:03 |
Arsanerit | I didn't know that people between 55 and 60 are more likely to take things literally. Are they? | 12:04 |
sdfgsdfg | =/ would be better | 12:04 |
sdfgsdfg | Arsanerit dont change the subject now now | 12:04 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Estonia: +1891 cases (now 192092), +14 deaths (now 1516), +8784 tests (now 2.1 million) since a day ago | 12:04 |
Arsanerit | "lol" is also a Dutch noun, first recorded in the 16th century, meaning "fun". | 12:04 |
sdfgsdfg | I respect my elders lol | 12:04 |
Arsanerit | Then I hope your elders are fully vaccinated. | 12:04 |
Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 28 ottobre 2021: Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di contenimento e gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19. (21A06515) → http://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2021/10/30/21A06515/SG | 12:05 |
MerlinMp[m] | My wife week after flu vaxx caught smallpox. I doubt if theres any coincidence but it happened | 12:05 |
sdfgsdfg | smallpox from flu vax ? wow | 12:05 |
MerlinMp[m] | Her doctor was really shocked because this was relatively new vax, but smallpox came from infection not injection | 12:06 |
sdfgsdfg | the fact that delta is evolving is really not giving much of a hope | 12:08 |
MerlinMp[m] | So sick were kids of one of our friend, but friend was not sick. Thats why it was difficult to track the source | 12:08 |
sdfgsdfg | MerlinMp[m] so it was a sideeffect, maybe made her more vulnerable to it somehow | 12:09 |
sdfgsdfg | hmmmm | 12:09 |
MerlinMp[m] | No, just coincidence of contact with virus and vax same week | 12:10 |
Arsanerit | With almost nobody in the poorest countries of the world being vaccinated, it seems unlikely that the pandemic will be "over soon". | 12:10 |
sdfgsdfg | I agree and so many people are in denial | 12:12 |
MerlinMp[m] | There are many people having covid like a flu, Im not surprised they have different understanding | 12:13 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: The difference in the dynamics of SARS-COV-2 variants → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/qiygmj/the_difference_in_the_dynamics_of_sarscov2/ | 12:15 |
de-facto | SMALLPOX? whaaat? | 12:21 |
de-facto | smallpox is the only pathogen that humans were able to eradicate by vaccinations | 12:27 |
MerlinMp[m] | Ups, its chickenpox, my medical english is terrible | 12:27 |
de-facto | then she should take Vitamin B12 | 12:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Brunei: +110 cases (now 13065), +1 deaths (now 87), +2713 tests (now 499795) since a day ago | 12:29 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: Parents should be patient about getting COVID vaccines for kids, White House says: There are fresh logistical challenges, warns the White House's COVID czar in an exclusive interview with NPR. For [... want %more?] → https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/10/30/1050690655/parents-should-be-patient-about-getting-covid-vaccines-for-kids-white-house-says | 13:17 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Latvia: +2879 cases (now 217339), +39 deaths (now 3237), +27429 tests (now 4.9 million) since 23 hours ago — Belarus: +1992 cases (now 598183), +18 deaths (now 4614), +37713 tests (now 9.6 million) since a day ago — Uganda: +75 cases (now 126075), +5 deaths (now 3215), +5136 tests (now 1.8 million) since 23 hours ago [... want %more?] | 13:31 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): I would laugh at the suggestion that COVID will burn itself out but not in a jovial mood right now. → https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1454412661387509763 | 13:48 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 30OCT21 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/qj08cn/global_covid_cases_for_30oct21/ | 14:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +620 cases (now 4.2 million), +27 deaths (now 143388), +239386 tests (now 46.5 million) since a day ago — Germany: +18398 cases (now 4.6 million) since 21 hours ago — Qatar: +92 cases (now 239143), +4465 tests (now 2.8 million) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +42480 cases (now 9.0 million) since 19 hours ago | 14:33 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Covid vaccine: UK cuts gap between second dose and booster jabs for vulnerable groups → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/uk-covid-vaccine-doses-booster-gap-7599162/ | 14:41 |
sdfgsdfg | cut the gap !! yeah | 14:46 |
sdfgsdfg | not just for the vulnerable, but us and the babies too. Big city life \o/ | 14:47 |
sdfgsdfg | maybe the future is weekly anal injections | 14:49 |
sdfgsdfg | as soon as youre born lol | 14:49 |
Arsanerit | Why anal? | 14:57 |
lastshell | I'm old fashion a jab is best for me | 14:59 |
Arsanerit | No nasal vaccines for you? | 15:00 |
lastshell | thats ok but not pulling out my pants | 15:00 |
Arsanerit | Do anal vaccines exist? | 15:01 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Anthony J Leonardi, PhD, MS (@fitterhappierAJ): It would be nice if all the people that promised cellular immunity would take over for waning antibodies would donate or forgo their booster dosesIt is the JCVI and @profvrr recc to get a boost with the virus@macroliter I'm looking at [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1454432425778597897 | 15:02 |
Brainstorm | Updates for UAE: +88 cases (now 739824), +297441 tests (now 93.1 million) since a day ago — Denmark: +2 deaths (now 2713), +136017 tests (now 85.9 million) since 22 hours ago | 15:11 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Tonga faces lockdown after first Covid case detected | 30OCT21 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/qj11xr/tonga_faces_lockdown_after_first_covid_case/ | 15:12 |
de-facto | having BIG increase in cases in Germany, R~1.3 and not peaking yet | 15:14 |
de-facto | i think this is the governments fault, they basically took back too many successful containment efforts at once | 15:17 |
Arsanerit | What containment efforts were taken away? | 15:17 |
de-facto | free testing, restrictions to gatherings, mask wearing etc | 15:18 |
Arsanerit | Was mask wearing taken away anywhere? | 15:18 |
de-facto | now they are even talking about removing the legal framework from national law so that federal states can not refer to a epidemic emergency of national impact | 15:21 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Eleven states sue US government over Covid-19 vaccine mandate for federal contractors | 29OCT21 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/qj1c1l/eleven_states_sue_us_government_over_covid19/ | 15:23 |
de-facto | removing free testing, support for quarantine, mandatory masks in many scenarios, upper boundaries for gatherings and events even indoors etc | 15:24 |
de-facto | and then wondering why cases explode even with much less testing | 15:24 |
* de-facto prevents himself from a super heated rant and tries to cool down | 15:25 | |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Uganda: Clean Up Covid-19 Test Mess At Entebbe Airport | 30OCT21 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/qj1ipj/uganda_clean_up_covid19_test_mess_at_entebbe/ | 15:33 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +297 cases (now 812194), +11 deaths (now 11399), +5316 tests (now 4.4 million) since a day ago — Bangladesh: +166 cases (now 1.6 million), +8 deaths (now 27862), +13240 tests (now 10.3 million) since a day ago | 15:35 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: US authorises Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11 years → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/qj1nu4/us_authorises_pfizer_covid19_vaccine_for_children/ | 15:44 |
ublx | %title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaRfbJE1qZ4 | 15:49 |
Brainstorm | ublx: From www.youtube.com: Special Episode: Engineering the Apocalypse by Rob Reid and Sam Harris - YouTube | 15:49 |
ublx | ^ Who fancies a 4 hour podcast about future (man-made) pandemic risk/preparedness? | 15:49 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Europe embraces booster vaccines to fight Covid-19's fourth wave | 30OCT21 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/qj1unq/europe_embraces_booster_vaccines_to_fight/ | 15:54 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Saudi Arabia: +41 cases (now 548571), +3 deaths (now 8793), +34149 tests (now 30.3 million) since 23 hours ago | 16:00 |
de-facto | we urgently need more testing and more vaccinations | 16:10 |
de-facto | otherwise this winter will get worse than last year | 16:11 |
de-facto | https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/COVID-19-Trends/COVID-19-Trends.html?__blob=publicationFile#/home | 16:12 |
Arsanerit | worse really? | 16:18 |
Arsanerit | "7-Tage-Inzidenz Hospitalisierungen | 16:19 |
Arsanerit | "7-Tage-Inzidenz Hospitalisierungen" looks to be going down again? | 16:19 |
Arsanerit | What is the forecast for the peak hospitalisation incidence or intensivregister if no action taken? | 16:19 |
Arsanerit | and positivanteil does not consider rapid antigen (self) | 16:20 |
Arsanerit | and positivanteil does not consider rapid antigen (self-)tests I think? So not very useful measure anymore, considering many people will only do a PCR test after a rapid antigen test shows positive? | 16:21 |
Arsanerit | Almost all adults who want to have now been fully vaccinated. Do I, fully vaccinated, need to refrain from anything important to protect people who by their own choice are not fully vaccinated? | 16:22 |
de-facto | thats exactly why it will get worse, people assume that vaccination alone will protect us, yet there is no such thing as herd immunity | 16:23 |
de-facto | we do need additional non-pharmaceutical measures such as tests, masks, preventing super spread scenarios etc in order to contain it with R<1 | 16:24 |
de-facto | yet we are removing all of those, vaccination rates are going down, daily new infections increase faster than exponential with R~1.3 > 1 and dR/dt > 0 | 16:25 |
de-facto | hospital personnel exhausted and quit, we have thousands less beds than last year | 16:26 |
de-facto | i hope for the best, but i really think it got the potential to become worse than last winter, because people assume the pandemic is over. ifs far from over | 16:27 |
Arsanerit | I know there is no such thing as herd immunity, but the risk of hospitalisation if fully vaccinated is greatly reduced. | 16:28 |
Arsanerit | I readily believe that more people will get infected than last winter, but I am not convinced that more people will be hospitalised. | 16:28 |
Arsanerit | I don't think it's over, but I don't interact with any unvaccinated people so I don't think I need to be as careful as I was before, because the consequences of an infection are probably much less serious than before. | 16:29 |
de-facto | well comparing week 42 2021 with 2020 we already got 3 times the death rate of last year, will it remain there or also follow the sharp rise in infections that we see now? | 16:29 |
de-facto | yes the vaccines do work (actually very well) but they are not nearly enough to prevent all the problems associated with COVID | 16:31 |
de-facto | and yes its mostly non-vaccinated having fatal outcome, yet we are talking about 1 out of every 3 Germans not being vaccinated yet and vaccination rates are going *down* not up | 16:32 |
Arsanerit | I don't know, how is the death rate developing in countries like UK and Denmark that have had their "freedom days"? | 16:33 |
de-facto | i wonder if Halloween Party tomorrow will increase infections even more | 16:33 |
de-facto | maybe all the symbols like skulls etc are quite appropriate | 16:34 |
Arsanerit | but they're all outside? | 16:37 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Laos: +858 cases (now 39586), +1 deaths (now 62), +7175 tests (now 635027) since a day ago — Canada: +2515 cases (now 1.7 million), +26 deaths (now 29008) since 21 hours ago — Haiti: +137 cases (now 23960), +9 deaths (now 671), +11176 tests (now 131683) since a day ago | 16:38 |
de-facto | https://www.offloop.net/covid19/?default=EU;United%20Kingdom;France;Spain;Germany;Portugal;Denmark&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes | 16:38 |
de-facto | Arsanerit, its cold so they will go inside in the evening and night | 16:39 |
Arsanerit | Oh, I thought Halloween was a party where the kids were walking outside extorting people for candy | 16:39 |
Arsanerit | Even in the UK death rate is still 6× lower than at the peak last year | 16:40 |
de-facto | ah yeah that should be fine, yet i think people will celebrate that like a party too | 16:40 |
de-facto | yeah it would be a lot higher without vaccinations, yet its increasing, so there has to be done something about that | 16:40 |
Arsanerit | and 1/3rd lower than last year at 28 October | 16:41 |
Arsanerit | whereas last year they had lockdowns and the original strain (or did they have alpha?), today they have delta | 16:41 |
dTal | I've been invited to a rave in a pub tonight | 16:41 |
Arsanerit | so despite delta and freedom day, death rates are still lower than last year at this time (I don't know about UK hospitalisation rates) | 16:41 |
Arsanerit | Plus, many of the hospitalised people are unvaccinated by their own choice, so it's partly due to their own actions. | 16:42 |
dTal | it occured to me that, on halloween of all times, you can get away with wearing a respirator as normal attire | 16:42 |
de-facto | and if you look at those graphs Germany got by far the steepest increase in both cases and deaths | 16:42 |
Arsanerit | Why does Germany have the steepest increase, when Denmark and UK have more liberal policies? | 16:42 |
Arsanerit | UK cases are high, but not increasing much. | 16:43 |
de-facto | because of transition we had more or less stable case numbers before and now taking back NPIs while seasonality kicks in | 16:43 |
Arsanerit | Why are cases in Bavaria so much higher than in Bremen? | 16:43 |
de-facto | this is exactly the wrong thing to do if the goal is to prevent infections | 16:43 |
de-facto | i am pretty sure the current approach will be seen as mistake some months into the winter | 16:44 |
Arsanerit | UK cases increased sharply between 15 May and 18 July. UK deaths increased sharly between 21 May and 10 September. But since then UK cases and deaths have gone rather up and down, up and down. What changed in the UK? | 16:45 |
de-facto | pathogen reproduction only depends on the attitude that influences peoples behavior, so everything that influences that will have direct impact on reproduction number, be it some law or be it some assumption or such | 16:47 |
Arsanerit | And despite a lower base level, there is also an exponential increase again in France and Italy, which have rather strong covid pass restrictions. Why is R in Italy larger than in UK? | 16:48 |
Arsanerit | The only explanation I can think of is that *so* many people in the UK are being infected, that the absolute rate of spread has hit a peak. | 16:48 |
Arsanerit | If that explanation is true, then we should see R drop in Austria, Germany, Netherlands within a fortnight or so. | 16:49 |
Arsanerit | As probably a very large number of unconfirmed vaccinated infections, due to vaccinated people (1) less likely to test, and (2) less likely to develop symptoms. | 16:50 |
de-facto | i think we will see a sharp increase in cases in the next two weeks | 16:51 |
Arsanerit | We are already seeing a sharp increase now, and I agree. | 16:52 |
Arsanerit | But what will be the peak of the infection rate, hospitalisation rate, and death rate, if no action is taken? | 16:53 |
de-facto | and i am pretty sure nothing really will be done about that until hospitals are full | 16:53 |
de-facto | then we will hope to have contained the infections earlier | 16:54 |
de-facto | most of all this is psychology, right now people assume vaccinations alone suffice and are not careful anymore, hence cases will rise | 16:57 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: China’s COVID-19 outbreak developing rapidly, health official says → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/chinas-covid-19-outbreak-developing-rapidly-health-official-says-7599425/ | 16:57 |
Arsanerit | The vaccination alone is probably sufficient to reduce the risk that I or my wife get hospitalised to a level such that we no longer refrain from meeting anyone at all. | 16:58 |
Arsanerit | It has a social cost to not meet up with any friends in person for more than 1½ year. | 16:59 |
Arsanerit | so we think it is now an acceptable risk to invite two vaccinated friends for dinner | 17:01 |
Arsanerit | should we not? | 17:01 |
de-facto | i think people should try to prevent spread of the pathogen, vaccinated or not, this is the origin cause of all our problems | 17:02 |
Arsanerit | People will be quite lonely never meeting anyone for two years, that is damaging too. | 17:03 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Chile: +2142 cases (now 1.7 million), +70922 tests (now 23.5 million) since 23 hours ago — India: +1069 cases (now 34.3 million), +15 deaths (now 457787) since 21 hours ago | 17:03 |
de-facto | vaccination is good for protecting the individual itself by lowering risk of severe progressions significantly, but spread only can be prevented by detecting carriers and isolating them | 17:03 |
de-facto | so that means we need *more* testing not less | 17:03 |
Arsanerit | Has any country succeeded in stopping the spread of delta? | 17:03 |
Arsanerit | Is that a realistic prospect? | 17:03 |
de-facto | NZ probably could have done that, China will try now i guess | 17:04 |
Arsanerit | I thought NZ had given up on its "zero covid" strategy. | 17:04 |
de-facto | exactly but they could have done it if not have given up | 17:04 |
Arsanerit | And NZ tried it on a country level, meaning people could still meet their friends. | 17:04 |
de-facto | most likely could have succeeded | 17:04 |
Arsanerit | Lockdowns prohibiting individuals from meeting each other for months or years have a much heavier toll, in particular if it involves school closures. | 17:05 |
de-facto | well lockdowns are only the last option when every other approach failed, it pretty much is giving up on tracing and isolating | 17:07 |
de-facto | but why? if we would have enough testing to end at least as many infection chains than a carrier would have started on average we would regain control with forcing R<1 transition | 17:08 |
de-facto | every kindergarden, school, university, working place, basically every place where people meet should make biweekly testing mandatory | 17:14 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Saturday 30 October 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/qj3df3/saturday_30_october_2021_update/ | 17:18 |
de-facto | and especially every party | 17:20 |
Arsanerit | To protect the minority unvaccinated by choice, the even smaller minority unvaccinated because they can't, or the minority who will get seriously ill despite vaccination? | 17:20 |
de-facto | its not a minority, we are all together in this, vaccinated or not, one nation or the other | 17:21 |
de-facto | if we allow breeding of evasive strains the vaccinated will have breakthrough infections at increasing rates | 17:22 |
de-facto | and that in turn means everything that polarizes the society prevents collaborative containment efforts, hence works in favor of pathogen spread and thereby breeding evasive mutants | 17:24 |
de-facto | there are no minorities because there is no separation | 17:25 |
Arsanerit | infection strengthens the immune system? | 17:27 |
Arsanerit | isn't that pretty much like a booster? | 17:27 |
de-facto | yes it is like a booster | 17:27 |
de-facto | with much more associated health risks though | 17:27 |
de-facto | yet if that would prevent further infections, why are cases not going down in UK then? | 17:28 |
Arsanerit | I don't know, but they're not going up much anymore either | 17:35 |
de-facto | we will have to see, winter is not there yet | 17:36 |
de-facto | seasonality will have the biggest increase on pathogen reproduction in Jan | 17:36 |
Arsanerit | Isn't it inevitable that it's going to remain endemic (it already is really) and be present in seasonal waves, with which our healthcare system will have to cope, not unlike the flu? | 17:37 |
Arsanerit | You say, mandatory testing for all who meet anyone (essentially), but for how long? Forever? Until we have zero covid world wide? | 17:38 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Adding to the body of data for booster shot effectiveness, a new @TheLancet report of over 728,000 people w/ 3 shots vs >728,000 matched controls (2 shots):93% reduction of Covid hospitalizationsthelancet.com/journals/lance… pic.twitter.com/LlBwWi2Vtw → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1454471300047462404 | 17:39 |
de-facto | yes as long as the pathogen is in circulation we only have two options 1) control its spread by ending infection chains 2) ignore its presence and accept all the increasing problems such as it evading immunity and becoming more aggressive | 17:40 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +7952 cases (now 2.2 million), +13 deaths (now 18836) since 14 hours ago — Jordan: +1022 cases (now 860818), +12 deaths (now 11028), +21666 tests (now 10.9 million) since 22 hours ago | 17:40 |
de-facto | or oscillating in between those as we are doing it right now | 17:40 |
de-facto | steering always into another direction of course will lead to waves, letting it saturate will lead to a more stable maximum contamination | 17:42 |
Arsanerit | The only way to avoid mutants would be to eradicate it worldwide; for a virus where such a high proportion has no or mild symptoms (even if not vaccinated), that does not seem to be a realistic prospect, and I'm not convinced society worldwide is willing to pay what it takes. That has only succeeded with viruses that cause much worse diseases (smallbox, ebola). | 17:45 |
de-facto | well its still on its path to become more aggressive and diverse in terms of lineages | 17:45 |
Arsanerit | Oh, rinderpest too. | 17:46 |
Arsanerit | If it kills 30% and leaves the rest blind, I strongly suspect people are willing to accept more restrictions again. | 17:46 |
de-facto | well that is part of the probem, people still think its harmless, yet its not and it becomes more problematic with each wave by new variant of concern | 17:48 |
Arsanerit | Maybe it is the "problem" that it's harmless to the majority of infected people and the large majority of infected vaccinated people. | 17:48 |
de-facto | should we really breed this until it became problematic enough that everyone is convinced that the associated problem became serious enough to reason for finally containing it? | 17:49 |
Arsanerit | I don't think it will ever be contained worldwide. | 17:50 |
de-facto | then it will further progress on its trajectory to become more fit in the human body under the current most widely spread selective pressure by pre-existing antibodies and thereby increase the associated problem by evading immunity and increasing associated severity | 17:52 |
de-facto | i mean why would that not happen? | 17:52 |
Arsanerit | yet at the same time, the human immune system aided by continued vaccine development will help the body to defend against it | 17:53 |
de-facto | its the path we already can observe and it also is exactly what we would expect | 17:53 |
Arsanerit | A new virus can eradicate entire populations, such as happened in the Americas after Europeans invaded. | 17:53 |
de-facto | well yes but to what degree will it be able to defend the human body against it? the damage originates from the immune system itself due to the viral infection | 17:54 |
Arsanerit | The impact on a population where the virus has been circulating for a long time is less severe. | 17:54 |
Arsanerit | I don't know. I'm not a virologist. | 17:54 |
de-facto | only if the virus has reached some natural limit in increasing its fitness | 17:54 |
de-facto | so where would that be with SARS-CoV-2 | 17:55 |
de-facto | has it already optimized all its mechanisms that help with viral replication? | 17:55 |
de-facto | i doubt it | 17:55 |
de-facto | what we really should look at is long COVID | 17:58 |
de-facto | i think this is causing more damage than we think and we should not risk producing long COVID cases at maximum possible rate when aiming for saturating infections | 17:59 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Michal Tal, PhD (@ImmunoFever): I had to delete a tweet that got picked up by trolls. All I'm going to say is that vaccine confidence is NOT thinking that you're now bullet proof against this virus and you can't possibly catch it or pass it to your kids. That's vaccine dillusion not vaccine confidence. → https://twitter.com/ImmunoFever/status/1454472990792560646 | 17:59 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Food & Wine: Heirs step up as Covid deaths rock Bangkok’s famous street-food stalls → https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/food-wine/heirs-step-up-as-covid-deaths-rock-bangkoks-famous-street-food-stalls-7597022/ | 18:20 |
Arsanerit | "dillusion"? | 18:23 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +4877 cases (now 4.8 million), +37 deaths (now 132074), +477352 tests (now 103.9 million) since 23 hours ago | 18:30 |
de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.07.21263228v1.full-text | 19:06 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Analysis of 2.1 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes identifies mutations associated with transmissibility | medRxiv | 19:06 |
de-facto | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2021/09/13/2021.09.07.21263228/F2.large.jpg | 19:07 |
Brainstorm | Updates for India: +12570 cases (now 34.3 million), +441 deaths (now 458213) since 23 hours ago — Dominican Rep.: +759 cases (now 380974), +3 deaths (now 4129), +5425 tests (now 2.2 million) since a day ago | 19:07 |
de-facto | almost looks like if the base reproduction number *itself* follows an exponential evolution over time | 19:08 |
de-facto | .title https://github.com/broadinstitute/pyro-cov | 19:09 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From github.com: GitHub - broadinstitute/pyro-cov: Pyro models of SARS-CoV-2 variants | 19:09 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Health Ministry to open panel on vaccinating 5-11-year-olds to public → https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/qj541u/health_ministry_to_open_panel_on_vaccinating/ | 19:13 |
de-facto | increase in reproduction over time for strains at https://github.com/broadinstitute/pyro-cov/blob/master/paper/strains.tsv | 19:14 |
Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +40835 cases (now 9.1 million), +167 deaths (now 140981) since 20 hours ago | 19:32 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The top 10 countries for covid cases/capital globally are all in Eastern Europe pic.twitter.com/OPcDuoKnug → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1454499588069474305 | 19:33 |
jbwncster | https://www.vox.com/2021/10/29/22753429/supreme-court-vaccine-mandate-maine-does-mills-religious-right-exemption-liberty-constitution | 19:41 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Relationship of vaccinations and deaths in Europe via @TWenseleers twitter.com/TWenseleers/st… pic.twitter.com/1OTlADim8V → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1454501732751314948 | 19:44 |
Jigsy | How bad is the Coronavirus situation in the UK at the moment because I honestly have no idea. | 19:48 |
Jigsy | I know cases are >40K/day, and deaths are like, 100. | 19:48 |
Jigsy | But other than that, I have no clue what's going on. | 19:48 |
de-facto | .title https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ | 19:53 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From coronavirus.data.gov.uk: Daily summary | Coronavirus in the UK | 19:53 |
de-facto | and VoI AY.4.2 on increase about 10%-20% more contagious than other Delta variants | 19:54 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Moldova: +1255 cases (now 337115), +41 deaths (now 7706), +16689 tests (now 2.0 million) since a day ago — Zambia: +20 cases (now 209722), +1 deaths (now 3661), +5033 tests (now 2.6 million) since a day ago | 20:09 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Global numbers of Covid cases and deaths rise for the first time in 2 months, WHO says → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qj6qbm/global_numbers_of_covid_cases_and_deaths_rise_for/ | 20:15 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +1779 cases (now 1.7 million) since 21 hours ago — Kuwait: +12 cases (now 412653), +15337 tests (now 4.8 million) since 22 hours ago | 20:34 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A single-dose skin patch protein subunit Covid vaccine more effective than shots, including vs variants, in an experimental modelscience.org/doi/10.1126/sc…@ScienceAdvances So much potential for even better vaccines, including nasal/oral for mucosal immunity and pan-sarbecovirus → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1454516454057857024 | 20:36 |
de-facto | .title https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/global/ | 20:38 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From epiforecasts.io: Covid-19: Global summary | 20:38 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): While the US reported giving a record >1 million boosters today @CDCgov, it continues to fall in % population vaccinated, the primary goal. Now 54th on the listig.ft.com/coronavirus-va… pic.twitter.com/Glop0indSp → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1454521931932209152 | 20:57 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Mali: +60 cases (now 16038), +1360 tests (now 453558) since a day ago | 20:59 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity): Very interesting. Vaccines can induce immune responses to clear persistent viral infection. Relevance to #longCOVID? In this WAS patient;1) mRNA vax (but not infection) induced antibody to the Spike2) mRNA vax ⬆️ IFN-g secreting T cells3) [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1454523592037838856 | 21:07 |
de-facto | .title https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10875-021-01158-5 | 21:19 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From link.springer.com: Persistent COVID-19 Infection in Wiskott-Aldrich Syndrome Cleared Following Therapeutic Vaccination: a Case Report | SpringerLink | 21:19 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: NPDR -- The National Pediatric Disease Reservior (@COVIDforKids): This Thanksgiving consider serving your family quality deer meat from SARS FarmsWe are happy to make any cut you like or join us for some family fun and let the kids "bag a buck!" pic.twitter.com/VhP3et36RQ → https://twitter.com/COVIDforKids/status/1454527521932840967 | 21:28 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘Dishonest competition’: Putin lashes out at G20 over vaccines → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qj9b7k/dishonest_competition_putin_lashes_out_at_g20/ | 22:20 |
de-facto | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMBirotWEDs | 22:28 |
de-facto | .title | 22:28 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.youtube.com: Chinese mainland reports 23 locally transmitted Covid-19 cases - YouTube | 22:28 |
galacticbeat | unless mystery variant comes out of nowhere this pandemic is effectively dead in the water. | 22:32 |
de-facto | what do you mean by dead in the water? | 22:34 |
galacticbeat | it's been through so many people it'll be levered down by next spring. delta is likely as dangerous as it's going to get and has killed the widest majority of people it's going to kill. | 22:35 |
specing | in my country it is estimated that 1/8 of population is still susceptible | 22:37 |
galacticbeat | I mean "Chinese mainland reports 23" should clue anyone in that it's very well burned through most people. | 22:37 |
de-facto | well there are regions with a lot of seroprevalence (90%+ with antibodies) and it still is infecting people | 22:37 |
de-facto | oh China got a super strict zero covid strategy | 22:38 |
de-facto | they lockdown and test whole cities to contain it | 22:38 |
galacticbeat | yeah and they have over a billion people and reporting 23 infections. | 22:38 |
de-facto | its not due to immunity that its only 23 cases its due to introduction there again | 22:38 |
galacticbeat | everyone's had it | 22:38 |
de-facto | nope | 22:38 |
de-facto | china got the fewest infections per capita | 22:39 |
galacticbeat | pft | 22:39 |
de-facto | %china | 22:39 |
galacticbeat | according to china | 22:39 |
de-facto | %cases china | 22:39 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: China has had 109510 confirmed cases (0.0% of all people) and 4849 deaths (4.4% of cases) as of 8 hours ago. 160.0 million tests were done (0.1% positive). +73 cases since 23 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=China | 22:39 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about China, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it. | 22:39 |
galacticbeat | stop believing anything the chinese government says and you'll be better off. | 22:39 |
de-facto | dont you think that if it burned though chinese population that their hospitals would be full too hence such reports would have leaked out of china? | 22:40 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: G20 leaders endorse tax deal, pledge more vaccines for the poor → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qj9swi/g20_leaders_endorse_tax_deal_pledge_more_vaccines/ | 22:41 |
de-facto | and if Delta may be as dangerous as it gets? we dont really know yet, at why would we assume that? | 22:41 |
galacticbeat | the government keeps that news on lockdown. remember when covid started they welded people inside their apartment complexes to die. | 22:41 |
de-facto | no they prevented people from breaking the lockdown | 22:42 |
galacticbeat | they literally welded doors shut | 22:42 |
de-facto | there were videos of that in the net immediately | 22:42 |
de-facto | yes i know | 22:42 |
galacticbeat | "why would we assume that?" we would have seen it already. | 22:42 |
galacticbeat | billions of infections. | 22:42 |
de-facto | well have we not thought the same when Alpha was having its prime time? | 22:43 |
Arsanerit | As I understand it they welded doors shut while keeping one door that could only be opened with a "green check" on a smartphone app | 22:43 |
de-facto | then came Delta first in India | 22:43 |
galacticbeat | alpha transitioned through a couple variants to delta quickly in the grand scheme of things. | 22:43 |
de-facto | i remember we discussed if it was more contagious or not and we did not really know back then until it came to western countries and competed with Alpha so we had a direct comparison under similar conditions at the same time | 22:44 |
Arsanerit | I'm surprised delta is still dominant and hasn't been displaced by another variant yet. | 22:44 |
de-facto | by then we could tell how much more infectious delta was | 22:44 |
galacticbeat | pandemics aren't never ending affairs. they burn hot and life resumes. | 22:44 |
galacticbeat | <Arsanerit> I'm surprised delta is still dominant <---and this is why it's as bad as it'll get. | 22:44 |
de-facto | well this one burns hot for two years now | 22:44 |
Arsanerit | galacticbeat: we don't know that | 22:45 |
Arsanerit | but let's hope so | 22:45 |
galacticbeat | theres 8 billion people on the planet. takes a lot time for even a virus to infect that many people. | 22:45 |
Arsanerit | can be done in weeks | 22:45 |
Arsanerit | exponential growth goes fast | 22:46 |
galacticbeat | not in lockdown it doesn't | 22:46 |
galacticbeat | heh | 22:46 |
Arsanerit | no, in a strict lockdown it doesn't | 22:46 |
Arsanerit | unless it's a computer virus, then it goes in minutes ;-) | 22:46 |
de-facto | i mean i am not saying that it will get worse than Delta, maybe it wont, but honestly i dont see why yet | 22:46 |
Arsanerit | if it starts at 1 and doubles daily, it takes approximately one month to infect 8 billion | 22:47 |
de-facto | it could be that Delta saturated fitness and that evasive mutants also spreading in vaccinated may come at the price for some of that fitness | 22:47 |
de-facto | but it also could be that it still got some optimization potential if it just finds the associated mutation | 22:47 |
galacticbeat | I think a lot of you enjoy doom and gloom too much. | 22:48 |
Arsanerit | a variant that is deadlier more quickly would get less chance to spread | 22:48 |
de-facto | its not only the s-protein, its also mutations in the other proteins that play a role in the replication cycle once it entered the cell | 22:48 |
Arsanerit | galacticbeat: there might be a bias for people choosing to reside in this channel | 22:48 |
de-facto | such as suppressing anti-viral defense mechanisms of the cell etc | 22:48 |
galacticbeat | anything that burns too hot and kills too many people too easily will indeed burn itself out like Arsanerit said. It's why we don't have ebola pandemics. | 22:49 |
de-facto | the sub-variant of Delta that currently spreads in UK may doing so because of potential 10%-20% more infectiousness per generation | 22:50 |
de-facto | that is AY.4.2 | 22:50 |
Arsanerit | galacticbeat: and that's why the sci-fi type of virus killing everyone is unlikely | 22:51 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): And estimated excess deaths in function of vaccination coverage in Europe (data @OurWorldInData & The Economist, github.com/TheEconomist/c… economist.com/graphic-detail…). Message is clear: get your shot! pic.twitter.com/KuLjZzU3mg → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1454550377269956610 | 22:51 |
de-facto | also Russia got a really bad increase, so do they sequence enough that we would know what sub-variant of Delta is prevalent there? | 22:51 |
Arsanerit | I don't know if something could be engineered that is completely dormant for a month, and then suddenly becomes VERY bad | 22:51 |
de-facto | case numbers will rise in the winter in northern hemisphere, hence also bruteforcing the most prevalent immunity the antibodies raised against Wuhan-Hu-1 (thats the strain that current vaccine are based upon) | 22:55 |
de-facto | with every booster shot the immunity not only raises but also gets more broad because to the immune system a vaccination looks like a breakthrough infection hence it will try to answer with a wider variety of antibodies to increase the probability for introducing some antibody generations with highly increased affinity to the intruder | 22:57 |
Arsanerit | when will we get specific vaccines for delta ? | 23:00 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): @EricTopol Below also represented as scatterplots, both using confirmed Covid deaths as well as using the excess deaths per day as estimated by The Economist (size of the points proportional to population size). twitter.com/TWenseleers/st… → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1454551964377927688 | 23:02 |
de-facto | good question | 23:03 |
galacticbeat | moderna was supposed to have a shot with delta and two other variants soon. I'm personally not taking any more moderna as my chest hurt like mad the week after my second shot. I honestly thought I was having horrible asthma, but then the news came out about ~carditis with moderna so ... | 23:03 |
galacticbeat | supposedly not that many cases as a percentage, but I wonder how many people didn't report it like me. | 23:04 |
de-facto | did they aspirate the syringe prior to proceeding with the injection? | 23:10 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): Hieronder ook voorgesteld als scatterplots (bevestigde covid doden per miljoen per dag vs vaccinatiegraad & geschatte oversterfte vs vaccinatiegraad). twitter.com/TWenseleers/st… → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1454555816799973378 | 23:12 |
de-facto | btw current delta is not that immuno evasive, its just a lot more fit | 23:12 |
galacticbeat | I'd heard that as an explanation but it's untrue. it's not due to the vaccine going into a vein, data shows moderna is like 12 or 13x (I forget which) more likely to cause ~carditis. | 23:13 |
pure{blood}conju | Virus is one thing, vaccines is the other thing. Virus is a part of depopulation, vaccines is the part of control. We've been talking for weeks about it but no one mentioned the difference yet. If you look at Rwanda, when americans went there to bring "modernization" and health. Started vaccinating them and built millions of "cellphone" looking towers - civil war, "mental zombie" syndrome. Imagine now our super hyper 5g network and | 23:14 |
de-facto | moderna contains about 3 times as much mRNA compared to biontech | 23:14 |
pure{blood}conju | it's range of magnetic field possibilities built an every mile every where combined with graphene vaccine turning us into like antenna receiver kind of thing... Look at Rwanda again. Many countries in the world have been treated as an experimental field. North Korea, Palestine, Rwanda, Germany, Switzerland, Poland, Taiwan, Australia, USA, New Zealand... too see people's reactions on different way of treating them. Those countries | 23:14 |
pure{blood}conju | financially belong to one group of people. And there whole story begins decades ago when this group of people started investing their printed out of nowhere money anywhere they could... | 23:14 |
galacticbeat | ignored | 23:15 |
de-facto | i had moderna too, did not had any problems after 2nd dose | 23:16 |
de-facto | hihihi and electromagnetic radiation does not have anything to do with that | 23:17 |
pure{blood}conju | de-facto: Not yet 👍 | 23:18 |
de-facto | its physically not possible | 23:19 |
de-facto | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01527-y | 23:19 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: Safety and immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 variant mRNA vaccine boosters in healthy adults: an interim analysis | Nature Medicine | 23:19 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID tweets: Brian Hjelle, virologist (@hjelle_brian): #DeathSantis tosses a bucket of water on fire-ravaged FL COVID caseload after virus' total destruction. Whatta loser.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/editor… → https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1454556840147120128 | 23:22 |
de-facto | "Fig. 4: Neutralization of wild-type D614G and variants by participant serum collected 1 month after primary vaccination series and before and after boosters, as measured by the VSV-based PsVN assay." | 23:23 |
de-facto | thats quite interesting | 23:23 |
de-facto | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01527-y/figures/4 | 23:23 |
de-facto | i think multivalent boosters (containing the signatures of many variants of an antigen) are the best | 23:29 |
de-facto | not sure when they will have finished with the data for their delta specific boosters, but i hope they also contain one with all the variants they made so far | 23:30 |
de-facto | e.g. Wuhan-Hu-1, Beta, Delta | 23:30 |
de-facto | i would even think the wider the variety of s-protein signatures in a multivalent mNRA vaccine the broader the induced immune reaction raised against it and the lower the evasion probability by antigenic drift of the pathogen in the wild | 23:43 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘Is this my life forever?’ The unexpected — and frightening — impact of Long COVID on young Canadians → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qjay7w/is_this_my_life_forever_the_unexpected_and/ | 23:43 |
de-facto | why dont we just take the s-protein sequence of any VoC and VoI and instantly start a trial with it? | 23:44 |
de-facto | e.g. why dont they start now with AY.4.2 trials? | 23:45 |
de-facto | this is way too slow imho | 23:45 |
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