| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +21817 cases (now 2.5 million) since 20 hours ago | 00:33 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +40162 cases (now 9.9 million) since 21 hours ago | 01:35 |
| Rudd-O[m] | <LjL> "Rudd-O, enough with the meme-..." <- I think people who don't want to be part of society have chosen not to be part of it. Apologies if I sounded too harsh before. Sorry. | 01:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: James Melville on Twitter | Remembering what they said. Comparing to what they're saying now. | 19NOV21 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/qyjesp/james_melville_on_twitter_remembering_what_they/ | 02:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): Since only a small fraction of mutations make #SARSCoV2 more similar to RaTG13 and BANAL-20-52, it's extremely unlikely a virus would get just 3 mutations and they'd all do this. So the known market viruses can't be the ancestor of all human #SARSCoV2. (23/n) → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1462231932989706245 | 02:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): Instead, there were clearly other early human infections evolutionarily upstream from the mid-Dec market cases. Where did these occur? A bat cave in Yunnan? A lab in Wuhan? The Huanan market before anything we know about? Another market? There is no dispositive [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1462231934545764352 | 02:46 |
| LjL | i find it a bit mindblowing how much substantial, and lengthy, information is "published" in a Twitter format that was originally intended for short messages, and still mostly enforces them | 02:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Britain's health secretary announced Sunday he has launched an independent review to examine if "systematic bias" exists in the development of medical devices, after Covid-19 brought the issue "to the fore" → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qyk2l4/britains_health_secretary_announced_sunday_he_has/ | 02:56 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/DQV4EHF4 ) | 02:56 | |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Alabama reaches 16K deaths from COVID-19, 8K just in 2021 → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qykcxa/alabama_reaches_16k_deaths_from_covid19_8k_just/ | 03:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Adults in England aged 40 upwards will be invited to book booster: Those who received second vaccine at least six months ago are eligible for top-up jab from Monday. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59362522 | 03:59 |
| Dredd | <LjL> "i find it a bit mindblowing..." <- Yeah it's kind of odd. I had reading giant Twitter threads | 04:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Disney World puts covid-19 vaccination mandate policy on hold → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/disney-world-puts-covid-19-vaccination-mandate-policy-on-hold-7633591/ | 04:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +21860 cases (now 2.5 million), +56 deaths (now 19400) since 23 hours ago | 04:30 |
| Dredd | * Yeah it's kind of odd. I hate reading giant Twitter threads | 04:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Three in hospital after police fire on Dutch Covid-19 protesters - Three people were being treated in hospital in Rotterdam on Saturday (Nov 20) after they were seriously injured when Dutch police fired shots during a violent protest against [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qylsmh/three_in_hospital_after_police_fire_on_dutch/ | 04:30 |
| saviorcyberonlin | The Natural Foods That Easily Destroy Corona Virus COVID Are The Hot Spicy, Bitter | 04:48 |
| saviorcyberonlin | https://saviorscyber.wordpress.com/2021/11/21/the-natural-foods-that-easily-destroy-corona-virus-covid-are-the-hot-spicy-bitter/ | 04:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Dutch police open fire on Covid lockdown protesters as European nations reintroduce restrictions → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qym5as/dutch_police_open_fire_on_covid_lockdown/ | 04:51 |
| LjL | how even? http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Japan&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&legacy=no | 04:52 |
| joerg | >><Rudd-O[m]> Right now the important thing is to do what the authorities tell us to do.« could you please STFU | 04:58 |
| joerg | gustik: that vax mandate discussion is quite unfortunate. In RL any such mandatory vaccination would only be enforceable by controls e.g. in trains when checking tickets, in pubs on entrance etc anyway, and if you do that you basically don't need a vax mandate since a 2G or somesuch has basically exactly same effect | 05:10 |
| joerg | and no, you can't get absolution from a mandatory vaccination by paying a fine, however high | 05:11 |
| joerg | so yeah, what you gonna do with those who refuse? | 05:11 |
| joerg | in final consequence you need to lock them away. I guess we won't be willing to do that | 05:13 |
| joerg | politicians were idiots however to rule out any mandatory vaccination or any other possible measure from beginning. It is an immanent property of such an emergency that you don't know what you gonna face and what you gonna need to cope with the stuff you will face | 05:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +45179 cases (now 5.4 million) since 18 hours ago — India: +10488 cases (now 34.5 million), +313 deaths (now 465662), +1074099 tests (now 631.6 million) since 23 hours ago | 05:38 |
| joerg | anyway mandatory vaccination right now is a thing the people (some 50% in germany right now) ask for, but that's again complete nonsense. Not a topic to even discuss right now, since any vaccination *now* isn't the solution to cope with 4th wave any more. Even if we started tomorrow vaccinating people as fast as we been able to in best times in last spring and summer, we would see effects no earlier than February next year | 05:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Nasal Vaccine For Alzheimer's Disease Set To Begin Phase 1 Trial → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qyn36m/nasal_vaccine_for_alzheimers_disease_set_to_begin/ | 05:53 |
| joerg | wow, what? vaccine against Alzheimer? that sounds incredibly great | 05:55 |
| LjL | phase 1 | 05:57 |
| LjL | most alzheimer's drugs have proven a failure | 05:58 |
| LjL | i think Derek Lowe wrote a piece about probably this one recently | 05:58 |
| LjL | being like "you know i'm a pessimist but" | 05:58 |
| LjL | https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/alzheimer-s-vaccines | 05:58 |
| joerg | LjL: yeah, most were ineffective, all were at least poorly effective | 06:03 |
| joerg | many thanks for the link | 06:04 |
| Rudd-O[m] | <lastshell> "probably that will be the best..." <- You don't have to wonder, just wait for the next ten years, you'll see it first hand hah. | 06:07 |
| joerg | >> if this one indeed doesn’t work, that will be an especially heavy shovelful of dirt landing on the amyloid hypothesis, right? « :nod: | 06:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 832: Heavy metal flu fighters: TWiV reviews the vials labeled smallpox that were not, re-emergence of enterovirus D68 in Europe, efficacy of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, and cellular correlates of protection for an oral influenza virus vaccine. → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-832/ | 06:14 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Noord-Brabant, Netherlands: +3708 cases (now 371701), +9 deaths (now 3273) since a day ago — Limburg, Netherlands: +2341 cases (now 171551), +25 deaths (now 1827) since a day ago — Unknown, Germany: +1644 cases (now 19443) since 3 days ago — W.P. Putrajaya, Malaysia: +91 cases (now 7998) since a day ago | 06:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mass protests against lockdown and vaccines in Prague, Rome, Amsterdam → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qynyj4/mass_protests_against_lockdown_and_vaccines_in/ | 06:45 |
| * joerg waits for » mass protests against any covid related protests « | 07:34 | |
| joerg | I'm already more than fed up by those morons | 07:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: L’amico no vax e il solco incolmabile → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_ITALIA/comments/qypnim/lamico_no_vax_e_il_solco_incolmabile/ | 08:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Tens of thousands protest against Lockdowns & restrictions across Europe → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qypyd4/tens_of_thousands_protest_against_lockdowns/ | 09:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | November 21, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/qyq9bg/daily_discussion_thread_november_21_2021/ | 09:10 |
| aradesh | i've heard about this new "symptomless strain" of covid being investigated | 09:19 |
| aradesh | that could be good in theory right? it would give people a natural immunity to a similar strain to the deadly ones | 09:19 |
| joerg | never heard of it before. your conclusions sound plausible | 09:19 |
| aradesh | AY.4.2 strain | 09:20 |
| joerg | ta! http://reisenweber.net/irclogs/libera/__covid-19/search?q=AY.4.2%28%3Fi%29 | 09:21 |
| aradesh | maybe it's not really symptomless | 09:21 |
| aradesh | but some news articles are reporting it as such | 09:21 |
| aradesh | if you google "symptomless strain" you'll find lots of articles saying that | 09:23 |
| aradesh | though there's no way you could force a symptomless strain to spread around everyone, without also making them also vulnerable to catching the other strains | 09:26 |
| aradesh | but | 09:26 |
| aradesh | given how bad we are at preventing spread | 09:26 |
| aradesh | if this one spreads around and has less severe symptoms, in general that can't be too bad if it gives some natural immunity | 09:26 |
| joerg | around http://reisenweber.net/irclogs/libera/__covid-19/__covid-19.2021-10-29.log.html#t2021-10-29T17:04:32 doesn't sound to me like anything would suggest AY.4.2 was "symptomless" | 09:29 |
| aradesh | yeah | 09:32 |
| joerg | then, nothing says it is _not_ | 09:32 |
| aradesh | but then why are all these news articles describing it as such | 09:32 |
| aradesh | https://www.bedfordshirelive.co.uk/news/bedfordshire-news/new-symptomless-covid-strain-more-6234566 | 09:32 |
| aradesh | https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/new-symptomless-covid-strain-more-22218807 | 09:32 |
| aradesh | and so on | 09:32 |
| aradesh | all from the last few days | 09:32 |
| joerg | a good question. They got to have an original source for that info, would be interesting to spot and read that | 09:33 |
| aradesh | yes | 09:33 |
| aradesh | my covid-sceptic friends are all over it | 09:33 |
| joerg | sounds almost like that idea that came up half-tongue-in-cheeck in here a year or so ago came true: make a vaccination-virus and spread it | 09:35 |
| joerg | ;-) | 09:35 |
| aradesh | i became alerted about this story from this from covid-skeptic types: https://i.imgur.com/bYeDC29.png | 09:36 |
| aradesh | they always get so excited with badly worded news stories | 09:36 |
| aradesh | lol | 09:36 |
| aradesh | that's what they thrive off. politicians/spokes people/news articles that word things badly | 09:37 |
| aradesh | and then use that as evidence that it's all a lie | 09:37 |
| joerg | sidenote anecdote: diagnosis of the progressive paralysis that killed my dad » some virus you caught 10 or 20 years ago and that had no symptoms other than now destroying your nerves « | 09:39 |
| joerg | I can't recall the name of the virus since I was a youngster still and went "meh, this doen't help me either" | 09:40 |
| aradesh | is that an anecdote that symptomless viruses might still be a concern? | 09:41 |
| joerg | sort of | 09:41 |
| joerg | at last that a symptomless infection still is an infection by a disease that exists | 09:42 |
| joerg | those folks you referred to are ignorant and not capable to think beyond a mere black-or-white approach | 09:44 |
| aradesh | the covid skeptic types don't seem to appreciate that governments do lockdowns due to hospital overload not just imagining a problem due to graphs | 09:44 |
| aradesh | well, they don't believe it | 09:44 |
| aradesh | even if you point it out | 09:44 |
| aradesh | say it's all made up, etc | 09:44 |
| aradesh | "largely shown to be a myth" they say | 09:45 |
| aradesh | or if not hospitals being overloaded, their friends in a country next door having that problem so they don't want it to happen to them | 09:45 |
| aradesh | but in the UK it's always been "wait until the hospitlas are full, then maybe do something" | 09:46 |
| joerg | well, same here in germany but the idiots still ignore/deny there's a problem even if you show them pictures of an ICU station in their town or pull them by the hair and drag them across that station | 09:53 |
| joerg | maybe separate new "hospitals" exclusively for unvaccinated covid-cases would "help" | 09:55 |
| joerg | if those are filled, too bad. Can't treat you, sorry. While regular hospitals still could work as usual, without the load from those who actually don't want to get a treatment | 09:56 |
| joerg | aradesh: you're aware that those two links you gave are basically same company, and not exactly a source of news I'd consider particularly trustworthy, to put it politely | 10:04 |
| joerg | I don't know ${town}live.co.uk but the identical text and the whole appearance of both sites make me feel like I'm not really interested in finding out how trustworthy that (group of) news site is | 10:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +45181 cases (now 5.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 10:30 |
| darsie | Is deciding who gets treated in a full hospital called arbitrage? I can't find that term used that way. What is the term I'm looking for? | 10:36 |
| genera | triage | 10:39 |
| genera | well. not sure about in-hospital | 10:39 |
| genera | they call it ship-them-to-italy ^^ | 10:40 |
| darsie | thx | 10:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Johan Neyts (@neyts_johan): Vergelijking werkzaamheid twee of drie prikjes Pfizer. cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/ Drie shots geeft 95% werkzaamheid tegen symptomatische infecties (onafhankelijk van leeftijd, geslacht, onderliggende problemen…). Verschil met 2 dosissen wordt al vanaf dag 7 na [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/neyts_johan/status/1462358585103601665 | 11:15 |
| joerg | usually triage, though some doctors claim that this term isn't applicable since it would refer to "actively terminating life of one patient in favor for another". I frown a bit on "actively", no idea what they think this means | 11:15 |
| joerg | >>In medicine, triage (/ˈtriːɑːʒ, triˈɑːʒ/) is a practice invoked when acute care cannot be provided for lack of resources. The process rations care towards those who are most in need of immediate care, and who benefit most from it. More generally it refers to prioritisation of medical care as a whole.« https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage | 11:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Jean Fisch (@Jean__Fisch): Let me share one inconvenient thought:With waning immunity, lockdowns may prove an unavoidable short-term action but will can create a bigger issue later unless boosters dampen the effectHere is why ⤵️ → https://twitter.com/Jean__Fisch/status/1462359236273442819 | 11:25 |
| joerg | https://norden.social/@Spreepunk/107314100020916912 Advent calendar for anti-vaxers | 11:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Food & Wine: French wine lovers wash away climate and Covid-19 worries with new Beaujolais → https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/food-wine/french-wine-lovers-climate-change-covid-19-worries-new-beaujolais-paris-france7631107/ | 11:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: COVID curbs spark protests worldwide → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/covid-curbs-spark-protests-worldwide-7634042/ | 12:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: COVID‐19 and human papillomavirus: Paradoxical immunity → https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/qysxpr/covid19_and_human_papillomavirus_paradoxical/ | 12:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +8 cases (now 7.5 million), +2 deaths (now 119409) since 14 hours ago | 12:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Deaths in children and young people in England after SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first pandemic year → https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/qyt3tb/deaths_in_children_and_young_people_in_england/ | 12:39 |
| aradesh | joerg: didn't look into it, but figured they might be connected given they had the same headline | 13:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Biotech: STAT+: Flagship Pioneering’s Noubar Afeyan on the crazy idea behind Moderna and professional entrepreneurs → https://www.statnews.com/2021/11/21/flagship-pioneering-noubar-afeyan-crazy-idea-behind-moderna/ | 13:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +232 cases (now 819019), +1 deaths (now 11496), +7845 tests (now 4.6 million) since 23 hours ago | 13:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Physical Activity, Time Spent Outdoors and the Likelihood of Depression/Anxiety during Quarantine. Results were consistent across all demographic subgroups, including white, black, respondents. Less time spent outdoors was associated with higher [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/qytzim/physical_activity_time_spent_outdoors_and_the/ | 13:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Abstract 10712: Mrna COVID Vaccines Dramatically Increase Endothelial Inflammatory Markers and ACS Risk as Measured by the PULS Cardiac Test: a Warning → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qyuflh/abstract_10712_mrna_covid_vaccines_dramatically/ | 14:13 |
| Juerd | Is that the same Steven R. Gundry as this one? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Gundry | 14:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +45061 cases (now 5.4 million) since 22 hours ago | 14:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Anthony J Leonardi, PhD, MS (@fitterhappierAJ): Lenora Saxinger had a thread on the intolerability of N95s and gave a broken link to a studyThe study showed medical masks were statistically equiv in the cohortIncompetent? Or cunning?Low SES HCW are disproportionately affected by [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1462416163753930766 | 14:45 |
| Dredd | https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/qyr9jp/boris_johnson_seen_without_mask_on_crowded_train/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share | 15:09 |
| Dredd | Doesn't surprise me | 15:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +199 cases (now 1.6 million), +7 deaths (now 27953), +17135 tests (now 10.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 15:10 |
| de-facto | .title https://schnelltestrechner.de/ | 15:50 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From schnelltestrechner.de: SchnellTestRechner.de | 15:50 |
| de-facto | .title https://github.com/lenaschimmel/schnelltestrechner | 15:52 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From github.com: GitHub - lenaschimmel/schnelltestrechner: Compute pretest probabilities and interpret results of SARS-CoV-2 rapid tests | 15:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virology.ws: TWiV 831: COVID-19 clinical update #89 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #89, Dr. Griffin reviews upcoming meeting on FDA emergency use authorization for molnupiravir, 25% of US cases in children, reinfection associates with presence of [... want %more?] → https://www.virology.ws/2021/11/21/twiv-831-covid-19-clinical-update-89-with-dr-daniel-griffin/ | 15:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 21NOV21 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/qywr6o/global_covid_cases_for_21nov21/ | 16:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New documents back theory that Covid outbreak started in Wuhan lab → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qyx2az/new_documents_back_theory_that_covid_outbreak/ | 16:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +1744 cases (now 1.8 million), +8 deaths (now 29546) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +83 cases (now 9.9 million) since 20 hours ago | 16:37 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.11.21257016v1 | 16:50 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Comparative sensitivity evaluation for 122 CE-marked SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid tests | medRxiv | 16:50 |
| lastshell | hey guys I'm 37 no comorbidities afik, I do close to 150 minutes exercise per week, I took pfizer but is been six months since will be worth to take the booster for me ? | 16:54 |
| de-facto | i think so yes | 16:59 |
| Atque | lastshell: Yes | 16:59 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966v1 | 17:00 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections in 620,000 U.S. Veterans, February 1, 2021 to August 13, 2021 | medRxiv | 17:00 |
| lastshell | what is the reason ? | 17:00 |
| de-facto | declining protection as demonstrated by the data in that paper i just linked | 17:01 |
| lastshell | but if i exercise and my vitamin d leves are good is not enough protection ? | 17:01 |
| Atque | lastshell: COVID-19 risks respiratory fibrosis, which would markedly impair your quality of life. Immunity wanes six to 12 months post vaccination. A third dose will boost the immunity to mitigate COVID-19 risks. | 17:01 |
| de-facto | boosting seems to work quite well | 17:01 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.10.21264827v2 | 17:01 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Heterologous SARS-CoV-2 Booster Vaccinations – Preliminary Report | medRxiv | 17:02 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/e93VI81 https://i.imgur.com/uHYcEyQ.jpeg src: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.10.21264827v2 | 17:02 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: Heterologous SARS-CoV-2 Booster Vaccinations: Preliminary Report: Binding Antibody and Neutralizing Antibody Titers - Album on Imgur | 17:02 |
| Atque | lastshell: No, general immunity is different to the specific immune response to COVID-19. | 17:02 |
| de-facto | .title https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1448353685965131779 | 17:02 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From twitter.com: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "The big takeaway from this dataset is the response to J&J vaccine with a Moderna or Pfizer booster, taking that vaccine with low levels of neutralizing antibodies to close to parity with the mRNAs (also worked in reverse, J&J boost to mRNA, middle panel)" | nitter | 17:02 |
| de-facto | .title v | 17:02 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, the command line provided is invalid | 17:02 |
| de-facto | .title https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1450992967125135362 | 17:02 |
| lastshell | 37 can also get miocarditis for the booster > | 17:02 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From twitter.com: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): "So if you're J&J or Pfizer, only Pfizer booster (or Moderna50 by extension) will get you to 400 (below image). Moderna50 might be better because we expect a slight drop between 15 and 29 days (above image). If you're Moderna, any booster will get you to 400. So which to choose?" | 42l - nitter | 17:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): How could Austria, with a fully vaccinated rate of 64%, have the highest Covid cases per capita in the world?"Austria’s problem... is the large number of vaccine refuseniks nourished with conspiracy theories then amplified by far-right political [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1462450434698665985 | 17:02 |
| Atque | .title % | 17:02 |
| Brainstorm | Atque, the command line provided is invalid | 17:02 |
| lastshell | ? | 17:02 |
| de-facto | i did nonlinear fits on the data of the veterans breakthrough study | 17:06 |
| de-facto | ModernaVE[t] = 1.0 - (0.0729543 ± 0.000280782) * 2 ^ (t / (66.6613 ± 0.192085)) ~ 1 - 0.073 * 2 ^ (t / 67) | 17:06 |
| de-facto | BiontechVE[t] = 1.0 - (0.0854976 ± 0.000384987) * 2 ^ (t / (59.7220 ± 0.176891)) ~ 1 - 0.085 * 2 ^ (t / 60) | 17:06 |
| de-facto | JanssenVE[t] = 1.0 - (0.1166390 ± 0.000696673) * 2 ^ (t / (50.0673 ± 0.160064)) ~ 1 - 0.117 * 2 ^ (t / 50) | 17:06 |
| de-facto | Halflife approx. T2_Moderna ~ 67 days; T2_Biontech ~ 60 days; T2_Janssen ~ 50 days | 17:06 |
| de-facto | lastshell, so when was your 2nd BioNTech/Pfizer shot? | 17:07 |
| lastshell | may 20 | 17:09 |
| de-facto | so 2021-05-20 -> 2021-11-21 is 185 days ago and BiontechVE[185] ~ 26.8% if interpolating that data from the veterans study is appropriate that far (it may slow down the decline a bit since the residual b-cells in the bone marrow may last longer and their (low) contribution may be a bigger part when the fast declining usual b-cells mostly went away) | 17:13 |
| aradesh | any idea what the half life is for natural immunity? | 17:14 |
| de-facto | note that breakthrough does not mean a progression as severe as non vaccinated, it begins with mild cases and increases in severity the longer the timespan between last vaccination and breakthrough occurring | 17:14 |
| aradesh | i'd imagine it lasts longer as it's the exact antibodies needed? | 17:14 |
| de-facto | i think i read something like 150d or such if i remember correctly | 17:14 |
| aradesh | so pretty good | 17:14 |
| de-facto | for neutralizing antibodies induced from recovery of an infection | 17:15 |
| lastshell | to be honest I don't want to take it | 17:15 |
| lastshell | but my mom is high risk so we are going to take the booster | 17:16 |
| de-facto | yet afaik the data points spread over a much larger range for immunity from recovery | 17:16 |
| lastshell | thank you guys | 17:17 |
| de-facto | lastshell boosting will not only raise your antibody levels, it probably also will motivate your immune system to make a broader variety of antibodies hence potentially also may cover better future variants (that has to be seen though) | 17:17 |
| de-facto | that is because to the immune system boosting looks like a breakthrough infection: lots of antigen (s-protein) visible again hence it was an evolutionary advantage to react with a broader variety of antibodies to prevent that breakthrough (simulated by vaccination booster) | 17:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Top 10 in the world for cases and deaths, all in Europenewsnodes.com/worldmonitor/The differences in the list (for high death rates) is largely accounted for by the low rate of vaccination rates in several Eastern and Central European countries pic.twitter.com/WzyuIZLD72 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1462453982928900102 | 17:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +20709 cases (now 2.5 million), +12 deaths (now 19411) since 23 hours ago | 17:33 |
| Dredd | <joerg> ">><ruddo> Right now the importan..." <- Could you please try to disagree with people now amicably in future? | 17:35 |
| Arsanerit | I thought herd immunity was impossible with delta and current vaccines, but this article seems to suggest otherwise? https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00495-1/fulltext | 17:38 |
| de-facto | well vaccinations do lower the risk of infection and also lower the duration of spread etc, so in addition to the other measures they do contribute to lower the reproduction number Rt | 17:41 |
| Arsanerit | Lower, yes, but doesn't herd immunity require that vaccines alowe reduce Rt to less than one? | 17:43 |
| de-facto | the term "herd immunity" refers to achieving endemic (R0 = 1) state by removing a sufficient part of potential carriers from the infection chains in a fully naive (non-immunized) and non-aware (no additional containment measures) population | 17:43 |
| de-facto | note the difference between Rt and R0 | 17:43 |
| de-facto | both Portugal and Spain do have low number of infections but they increase there too | 17:49 |
| de-facto | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Portugal;Spain&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&leftTrim=650&legacy=no | 17:49 |
| de-facto | note their Rt(4d) ~ 1.25 in the last weeks meaning doubling in T2 = 4d Ln(2) / Ln(1.25) ~ 13d | 17:50 |
| Dredd | I'll pretend I know what that means 😂 | 17:51 |
| de-facto | it means their daily number of those that test positive for an infection doubles each 2 weeks | 17:52 |
| Arsanerit | R₀ is the reproduction number if nobody is immune and there are no interventions? | 17:52 |
| de-facto | yes | 17:53 |
| Arsanerit | Then why does the Lancet article speak of herd immunity? | 17:54 |
| de-facto | R0 describes the theoretical maximum of viral spread, hence the "worst case" scenario where every carrier infects the maximum number of suceptible | 17:54 |
| darsie | Like coughing at ppl rather than in their elbow? | 17:54 |
| de-facto | yeah for example | 17:55 |
| Arsanerit | But you wrote herd immunity achieves R₀ = 1 ? | 17:55 |
| de-facto | in a fully susceptible (immuno-naive) and unaware (no additional containment) we require steady state (no increase/decrease of cases) with R0 (1 - v) = 1 hence removing v = (R0 - 1) / R0 infections from each generation by e.g. vaccination | 18:01 |
| Arsanerit | I thought R0 was the theoretical number assuming no vaccinations? | 18:01 |
| de-facto | example: suppose we have a pathogen with R0 = 5, so every carrier infects approximately 5 susceptible in each generation leading to 5^generationtime infections emerging from each carrier | 18:02 |
| de-facto | now removing v = (5-1)/5 hence 4 out of each 5 potential infections leads to each carrier only infecting 1 susceptible, hence endemic state with Rt = R0 (1 - v) ~ 1 where daily new infections neither increase nor decline | 18:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Russian ‘COVID-19 Tourists’ Flood Croatia Seeking Jabs → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qyyuph/russian_covid19_tourists_flood_croatia_seeking/ | 18:05 |
| de-facto | removing refers to all combined measures that reduce reproduction = contact_rate * transmissibility * spread_duration, hence if no additional measure is the goal it would have to be achieved by vaccinations alone | 18:06 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: yes, I understand that it's endemic when Rt = ~ 1, but was confused by your statement at 17:43 CET where you wrote R0 = 1 | 18:07 |
| de-facto | now the question is: are current generation of vaccines (alone) able to achieve such a reduction for a reproduction number as high as the one for Delta VoC? | 18:07 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit i wanted to put emphasis on no additional measures except removing from a sufficient part from fully susceptible and unaware population by one chosen measure (e.g. vaccination) | 18:12 |
| de-facto | hence the example calculation (with arbitrary numbers) | 18:13 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: oh, I see | 18:14 |
| de-facto | we could even put in vaccine efficacy in such a "back of the envelope" quick estimate (its far from being accurate though since it assumes equality of all carriers and ignores over-dispersion for high contact rate or high spread scenarios) | 18:14 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: I had understood the answer to that question was "no, it isn't", which is why I was surprised by the headline in The Lancet | 18:14 |
| de-facto | that would be Rt = R0 ( 1 - VE * V ) for vaccine efficacy VE (against transmission!) requiring to remove a portion of V = (R0 - Rt) / (R0 * VE) from infection chains in a fully susceptible unaware population | 18:17 |
| de-facto | note the symmetry in the product for VE and V, hence we would need a vaccine efficacy VE = (R0 - Rt) / (R0 * V) to achieve Rt when a portion of V is vaccinated | 18:18 |
| de-facto | also note all of those are functions of time, e.g. Rt[ŧ] = R0[t] * ( 1 - VE[t] * V[t] ), R0[t] representing increase in pathogen fitness (e.g. new VoCs), VE[t] representing waning of (transmission!) immunity by vaccinaiton and V[ŧ] representing vaccination progress for a given associated VE[t] | 18:25 |
| Arsanerit | I wish there was a delta-specific vaccine for the booster | 18:31 |
| de-facto | btw i wrote VE against transmission because its different from the VE reported in the studies (e.g. the veterans study above) that uses other endpoints ( I guess symptomatic infection ) | 18:31 |
| Arsanerit | I thought mRNA-vaccines were easy to adapt to variantse, if they are, then why are approved vaccines still for the wuhan strain only? | 18:31 |
| de-facto | surely not due to a (bio)technical problem | 18:32 |
| de-facto | iirc Ugur Sahin (CEO of BioNTech) stated it would take ~6w to implement a new s-protein signature in the mRNA vaccines | 18:33 |
| LjL | and it probably does, but that's an insignificant amount of time compared to the time to produce enough of them and to test for safety | 18:34 |
| LjL | as i said i think the regulatory process could benefit from being streamlined, BUT, we still do need reasonably robust testing | 18:34 |
| LjL | "no ADE" now doesn't automatically mean no ADE always | 18:35 |
| LjL | and proteins can interact in unexpected ways, even if it's "just similar" to the protein we were already using (so is the virus's, right? but it means a big difference!) | 18:35 |
| LjL | so it's not like we can just take 6 weeks, or even remotely close, to bring a new signature to the market | 18:35 |
| LjL | that said, yes, gee, hurry up with it | 18:35 |
| de-facto | well actually the regulary processes are streamlined as much as possible while still ensuring they have enough data for safety estimates | 18:38 |
| Arsanerit | it's sufficiently streamlined for some people to use it as a stated reason to distrust vaccine safety... | 18:39 |
| de-facto | yet the antigenic drift with the pathogen also progresses, so e.g. exposure to Delta s-protein probably will happen sooner or later, honestly id prefer the controlled way via vaccination rather than the uncontrolled way by contamination with wild type | 18:39 |
| de-facto | i wish they would streamline it more and do more parallel testing | 18:41 |
| de-facto | why dont we have mandatory trials for all vaccine manufacturers that want to have contracts with EU for every declared SARS-CoV-2 VoC and VoI? | 18:42 |
| de-facto | e.g. if they want to keep their approval they would need to agree to constantly run trials for all known VoCs and VoIs? | 18:42 |
| de-facto | they could choose not to do so, but then also loose their expensive approval and a very lucrative market | 18:43 |
| Arsanerit | Would those trials have to find people who so far weren't vaccinated at all, or could they have "booster trials" or so? | 18:44 |
| de-facto | the trials would have to be accurate for the majority of target groups, hence in the case of EU id assume for those that already completed primary vaccination series | 18:46 |
| de-facto | so it would be a potential "early advantage" to participate in such trials | 18:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Antibiotic Prescribing Practices During COVID-19: As providers were challenged to care for patients with severe COVID-19 In the first year of the pandemic, antibiotic usage increased. Listen to clinicians talk about this specific challenge and how prescribing [... want %more?] → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/antibiotic-prescribing-practices-during-covid-19 | 18:47 |
| de-facto | to accumulate enough stats for a significant trial result the trials would have to be large enough to achieve enough vaccine breakthrough infections for a given incidence in the target time window | 18:52 |
| aradesh | i bet they're working on some new vaccines anyway (don't know but would imagine so ...) | 18:55 |
| de-facto | btw there also are methods to increase that, e.g. in a double blinded trial the verum group (with lower expected breakthrough attack rate) may be N-fold bigger than the associated placebo group (with higher expected infection attack rate) | 18:58 |
| de-facto | afaik they do study designs like 2:1 for verum:placebo cohort size | 18:59 |
| de-facto | yes i really do hope they are working on new vaccine generations, e.g. i desperately look forward to see stats on intranasal vaccination trials | 19:00 |
| Arsanerit | any idea on a timeline when we might see the first vaccines approved for delta? Some time in 2022? | 19:00 |
| de-facto | especially i am curious about intranasal vaccine efficacy against transmission and the time evolution of that (e.g. half life and absolute protection etc) | 19:01 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, afail BioNTech does have a trial running currently | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | ok | 19:01 |
| de-facto | not sure when results will be ready though | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | hope it will come before delta has been displaced by something else yet... | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | difficult stuff | 19:02 |
| de-facto | well the trial also should include boosting with the Wuhan-Hu-1 s-protein to compare the effect of exchanging it with the Delta s-protein signature | 19:05 |
| de-facto | its not clear yet how big the effect would be | 19:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +9707 cases (now 4.9 million), +46 deaths (now 133177), +487109 tests (now 114.5 million) since a day ago | 19:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): That over 3 million children age 5-11 in the US have been vaccinated without a reported case of myocarditis so far is encouraging → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1462480325154467842 | 19:08 |
| Arsanerit | complicated | 19:10 |
| de-facto | not really, they just would need to have accurate expectation values for their trial design and start early enough to accumulate stats | 19:12 |
| de-facto | hence i think it would make sense to require it from the manufacturers to run trials against all known VoCs in parallel in order to keep their approval | 19:13 |
| Arsanerit | ok | 19:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Delta-like SARS-CoV-2 variants are most likely to increase pandemic severity | 19NOV21 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/qz0tqq/deltalike_sarscov2_variants_are_most_likely_to/ | 19:18 |
| de-facto | especially if manufacturers guarantee in their contracts to deliver efficacious vaccines (against current variants) and possibly also raise prices in the future | 19:21 |
| foo | /w 28 | 19:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +39593 cases (now 9.9 million), +61 deaths (now 144369) since 22 hours ago — Canada: +1801 cases (now 1.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 19:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): How to generate a new surge?Have 40% of Americans not fully vaccinated, and another 40% vaccinated but waned (past 6 months). twitter.com/EricTopol/stat… pic.twitter.com/c2PTCOWTzX → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1462493892369022979 | 19:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): What's the difference between endemic and pandemic? pic.twitter.com/HRDeXWOBfo → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1462507006552514560 | 20:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: COVID in the U.S. update: Disney's vaccine mandate, boosters, a startling death toll: Disney has paused its vaccine mandate for Walt Disney World employees after a new Florida law barring workplace vaccine [... want %more?] → https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/11/21/1057791427/covid-in-the-u-s-disney-florida-vaccine-mandate-boosters-fauci-2021-death-toll | 21:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +19757 cases (now 7.5 million), +17 deaths (now 119424) since 23 hours ago — India: +6015 cases (now 34.5 million) since 22 hours ago | 21:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Infection-enhancing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies recognize both the original Wuhan/D614G strain and Delta variants. → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/qz4cdv/infectionenhancing_antisarscov2_antibodies/ | 22:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia surpasses 85 per cent full vaccination rate → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/qz4t0z/australia_surpasses_85_per_cent_full_vaccination/ | 22:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Oliver Pybus (@EvolveDotZoo): We’ve discovered a large and persistent recombinant SARS-CoV-2 lineage in North & Central America. Hope to post a longer thread soon. Recombination as a source of new and viable virus genetic diversity needs to be taken seriously. twitter.com/medrxivpreprin… → https://twitter.com/EvolveDotZoo/status/1462540308705542149 | 23:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "These data support the use of boosters to prevent breakthrough infections and suggest that antibody-mediated immunity may last longer after the second vaccine dose" pic.twitter.com/Av7rkOur9R → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1462550488994377729 | 23:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +20694 cases (now 2.5 million) since 23 hours ago | 23:47 |
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