libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2021-12-05

* joerg wonders if lowering Rt generally would actually increase selection pressure in favor of higher_Rt variants00:04
joergwould Rt_a=1.5 Rt_b=2.5 give B an advantage compared to Rt_a=3 Rt_b=5 ?00:07
joergmy guts feeling says no, but guts don't know statistical effects00:19
LjL-Matrixjoerg: I guess it's more complicated than just their R's. Let's say that we have two variants, one that only transmits in big droplets no further than 2m, but when you inhale a droplet it's extremely efficient in replicating; the other is less efficient, but it's thoroughly airborne and propagates much further. Maybe without distancing, the former would outcompete the latter, but with distancing of >2m, the former will die out while the00:23
LjL-Matrixlatter will continue existing00:23
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): So if we take the equation:ICU beds filled = people infected x risk of needing ICU"People infected" could get very big, very quickly, even with lots of vax and prior infection.So race is now on to use third doses to get "risk of requiring ICU" as [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/146727050598825165400:23
LjL-Matrix(It's just an easy example, I absolutely do not mean that the virus actually ever stopped after 2m!)00:23
joergI don't think omicron differs in any such "secondary properties" like kind of transmission droplets vs airborne00:25
xxLjL-Matrix: sadly all that talk about 1.5m or 2m got interpreted as "If people stay more than 1.5m from each other, then they don't need any masks, vaccination, handwashing, ..."00:25
xxand most people still believe that00:25
xxpoliticians too00:26
xxworst of all, scientists and experts are still pushing that nonsense00:26
xxthey think a virus is like a lead bullet, it just falls to the ground immediatelly00:26
LjL-MatrixYes it's pretty annoying. Hence I wanted to clarify that it was a theoretical example to make things simple but I don't want to fuel that actual train of thought00:28
LjL-MatrixLike, you can have two variants with different propagation characteristics. Neither will probably have one that says "I drop dead after 2m", but it's easier to model that way00:29
xxI've seen 800 people packed in a theatre with no air circulation, but having two seats between all of them, hence nobody needed a mask...00:29
xxhttps://www.who.int/images/default-source/wpro/health-topic/covid-19/slide9208218f5aa844558a55c36ef0f41eb22.jpg00:33
xxis still on the main WHO page...00:33
xxand it's now down to 1m...00:33
xx"It spreads mainly between people who are in close contact with each other, typically within 1 metre." from https://www.who.int/westernpacific/emergencies/covid-19/information/transmission-protective-measures00:35
xxyeah all their infographics are 1m00:35
joergmy epidemiologist confirmed: no difference except in "speed" between the 1.5/2.5 and 3/5 scenarios00:35
xxjoerg: sadly most epidemiologists have no idea what they are talking about, they are just rehashing what they learned in textbooks 30 years ago when they were in university and fail to keep up to date with modern science00:37
joergxx: mind you how long it took until that silly idea about "doctors washing hands" was broadly accepted in medicine, back in the old days00:37
xxin fact, of all the scientists I've met in my life, I only know very few where I can confidently say that they are actually doing science, instead of it being just a job to pay the bills00:38
LjLxx, i think the WHO has always been 1m, hence Italy has always been 1m. other countries were a bit more conservative with 2m or 2.5m or so00:38
LjLyes it was always dumb00:39
LjLjust like the WHO's initial "don't wear masks"... okay okay i'm boring00:39
joergxx: ok, please provide support for your thesis, what in most recent science changed regarding infection dynamic in a scenario with two competing variants?00:39
joergno handwaving!00:39
LjLjoerg, i think xx was just talking about the 2m-or-similar guideline being interpreted very literally as "there's no risk as long as you're further away than 2m", not our actual two-variant scenario00:41
joergthis is a really very generic problem that for all I could tell didn't change a milli during last 100 years00:41
Dreddxx: Are you an epidemiologist who does keep up with the latest science? If you aren't then I'm not sure why you think you can accurately judge that?00:41
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australian Army Begins Relocating Covid-Positive Cases to Quarantine Camps → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r91ybi/australian_army_begins_relocating_covidpositive/00:42
DreddWell the Reddit comments on that say it's not true with links to more legit media00:43
Dredd🤦‍♂️00:43
LjLthat's why you read both the article and the comments :P (or at least why you should, most redditors only read the comments, while people who don't routinely use reddit often just read the article. both flawed ideas! :P)00:45
sdfgsdfg.cases uk00:45
sdfgsdfg.cases usa00:45
Brainstormsdfgsdfg: United Kingdom has had 10.5 million confirmed cases (15.8% of all people) and 146001 deaths (1.4% of cases) as of 5 hours ago. 366.1 million tests were done (2.9% positive). 51.0 million were vaccinated (76.8%). +92372 cases, +270 deaths since 23 hours ago. See https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/00:45
LjLspeaking of a study i just saw on reddit,00:45
LjL%title https://nference.com/publications/YamgzBMAADIAxXym00:45
xxDredd: have you not seen the failures in messaging/reporting from leading experts in these fields about the whole coronavirus sitation? Experts have failed where "people on reddit" who spent hundreds of hours quickly studying up on it have been right instead.00:45
BrainstormLjL: From nference.com: error parsing title ('NoneType' object has no attribute 'string')00:45
xxexperts were just waiting for authority figures to provide them with info, instead of actually looking into it themselves00:46
LjLxx, i think you may want to distinguish between the experts that have actually sweated to study this whole thing and sometimes thrown tantrums about the "other" experts, who are more like politicians00:46
xxand that's not science00:46
LjL... and those00:46
sdfgsdfgthere's this new research that mentions it fully evades natural immunity00:46
xxLjL: yeah, you're right, I'm just frustrated about this whole thing where it takes just one "expert" at the very start to effectively create a hoax that will stay with us forever00:47
LjLsdfgsdfg, if it fully evades natural immunity then i'm not sure there's a way it wouldn't also evade the vaccine00:47
xxsee from the vaccine-autism link that we'll never get rid of00:47
sdfgsdfgfk I still have tons of tabs on the german greens party leader, she looks great00:47
joergeeeew00:50
joergKobold00:51
joergerrr Cobalt00:52
sdfgsdfgabout the current topic.... look at how governments manipulate the science around marijuana, cuts funding of research etc. And compare that to how Pfizer help fund scientists that advocate boosters  at a time we don't even know if they will be helpful00:52
Dredd<xx> "Peter: have you not seen the..." <- Not really, not people who actually have relevant expertise. Just bull shit artists with skills like "health physicist" whatever that is00:52
Dredd<xx> "LjL: yeah, you're right, I'm..." <- Campbell and ivermectin quackery comes to mind00:53
joergsdfgsdfg: a 20fold increase in antibodies vs same value measuerd after 2. jab is >>we don't even know if they will be helpful<<?00:54
DreddBut again, he has no relevant knowledge. He just calls himself Dr Campbell and people erroneously believe him00:54
sdfgsdfgI think it's not decided if it does provide a partial immunity, just by looking at the statistics00:54
DreddBut those people also believe Alex Jones, so it's not saying much00:54
sdfgsdfgmaybe it does, I'd like to see a paper on it, maybe I missed it :)00:54
Dredd<xx> "see from the vaccine-autism link..." <- Yeah, I admit that was a relevant field researcher outright lying00:55
DreddBut it's a very rare event to see that00:55
DreddThankfully00:55
joergI think it must have an effect at least at those poor responders to the 2nd jab00:56
joergI don't give shit about statistics I didn't fake myself00:56
sdfgsdfgexactly00:56
joergI trust in lab research and hard numbers00:57
Dreddsdfgsdfg: I still think it's probably worth ramping them up assuming they provide some protection (and that do to the other srains still at least). Since they are relatively well tolerated it doesn't hurt much00:57
joerglike >>20 fold increase of antibodies vs 2nd jab<<00:58
joergalso mind you, we're fighting delta right now at least here in germany00:59
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): Me inserting chart into tweet: "cool that’s the global Covid situation explained in detail"Me with 280 characters at my disposal but no chart: "I’ve made, like, one half-coherent point and I’ve run out of spa" → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/146728140055033036901:01
joergand a pro tip for you, re >>how Pfizer help fund scientists that advocate<< any decent study has a mandatory section about sponsoring and conflicting interests01:01
LjLto be fair, that mandatory section has been empty on the Lancet with Daszak's conflict of interest where they had to add a "correction" later01:02
LjLit's not all working right 99.9% of the tim01:02
LjLon the one hand experts aren't all random idiots (although "media experts" and "political experts" may have to be taken separately), on the other hand it's quite true that it's an industry with a lot of money changing hands, and also that many *in* the industry think the scientific publishing industry is rotten01:04
xxDredd: my main worry (that doesn't have data to support it yet) is that this whole corona situation will irrepairably damage public trust in science in general, in ministries of health and other health authorities (CDC, WHO), in doctors in general (they are just on a payroll of big pharma) and in *all* vaccines.01:06
LjLfor example there have been studies, valid studies, on how... *most* studies about nutrition are actually biased due to conflicts of interest with the food industry. which of these two classes of studies do we believe?01:06
xxit would not surprise me if there are now more antivax people who refuse to vaccinate children01:06
xxI mean yeah, "science is to be tested, not trusted" and all that, but even then it would be good if the general public could have trust in experts in fields01:07
-Bridgestorm- ⭕ Lindol! Earthquake! 6.6 M tremor, registered by scevent, occurred 23 minutes ago (23:46:42 UTC), during daytime, San Pedro, Philippines (10.86, 121.68), ↓15 km likely felt 410 km away (in San Jose, Sibalom, Patnongon, Hamtic, Bugasong…) by 968500 people — Webcams: https://www.windy.com/webcams/1633317823 (service.geonet.org.nz)01:09
sdfgsdfgmore of those antivaxers are concerned mothers though, we didn't know 0-5 year olds would need boosting. We could at least have babyboosters, tiny dose or something ?01:10
LjLhere's an actual doctor who actually left academia because he thought the publishing industry stank, saying the publishing industry stinks, and giving an example of something that he says is common and that obviously happened to him https://youtu.be/WHC1bY_qdQ0?t=926 (then if you want to watch the whole video where he talks about it, feel free, but i find this a poignant example - ignore the title of the video, he's going on a tangent on the timestamp i linked)01:10
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Two new, very good threads to decipher Omicron's story:It's more mild in people who've been vaccinated or had prior Covidtwitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s…Potential for spread >> Delta (which could be mediated by immune evasion w/o invoking more [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146728238759156940801:10
joergI guess I should feel blessed then for my confidence in my own judgment on honesty and competence of experts01:21
joergpretty much same for "news" too01:21
joergbeginner's 101 on media competence: don't trust any news that don't come up in sync on at least 3 independent sources, in case of studies/papers: which are being reviewed and cited by 3 independent *scientists*01:29
xx101 on media - it's propaganda first, and no idea what second01:29
joergwhich doesn't imply the inverse rule is true01:30
joergxx: so what do you do here? didn't here enough of that propaganda yet? Or do you think irc is no media?01:31
xxjoerg: IRC is fun01:31
xxI don't go out much01:31
joergyeah, I noticed you obsviously think even ##covid-19 is fun01:32
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +41659 cases (now 10.5 million) since 23 hours ago01:32
joergmakes me wonder how fund differs from propaganda for you01:34
joerg-d01:34
joergIOW it's quite sad to hear you can't filter out any non-propaganda from media, which makes me wonder again: why are you in IRC then? what's the info you get here, for you?01:36
xxthere's a difference between news, where you know 100% people are *paid* to spread propaganda, and IRC where people might not do it, or if they do then they do it for free01:37
joergdefinitely this channel isn't about fun anyways01:37
joergwell, this idea is pretty unfunded anyway01:38
joergI know media channels where your >>you know 100% people are *paid* to spread propaganda<< actually applies. Funny enough those are frequently exactly the only media channels people with your mindset listen to, e.g. RussiaToday01:40
xxpeople with my mindset only consume media channels against their own will01:41
joergthen please refrain from judging on them01:41
joergyou evidently lack any first hand experience01:42
* xx shrugs01:43
joerg>>please make a typical gesture now<<01:45
xx¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ?01:46
LjLis this even a discussion?01:47
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Health: Early data from South Africa hints Omicron variant may cause less severe Covid, but more research is needed → https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/04/omicron-covid19-south-africa-data/01:48
joergLjL: prolly not01:48
joergI just can't ignore statements that summarize to >>I never watch/read/listen any mainstream media since they all are full of lies and propaganda, I get my whole knowledge from alternative sources<<01:50
joergI actually _can_ ignore those, just not in here01:51
xxuh, where did I mention alternative sources?01:53
xxor even mainstream media? I just said *all media*01:53
joergyou think this sounds any reasonable? does make any sense?01:55
xxnot really a discussion for this channel01:56
xxjust keep in mind that just because something is propaganda doesn't mean it's fake or lies01:56
xxI'm not a science denier01:57
joergyou can't even tell apart, you don't ever use *any* media.01:57
* xx sighs01:57
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): The source data, which appears to suggest a potential (early days, confounding factors with vaccinated groups and ages) uncoupling with cases and disease severity.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-d… pic.twitter.com/YUcitEVFex → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/146730705441515930402:43
LjLWell that's at least less of an anecdote than other things02:52
LjLBut if it were due to Omicron it would mean that Omicron was there waaaaaay earlier than it was found02:53
LjLWait no02:53
LjLHmm I guess even accounting for delay, compared to the previous wave we should already be seeing heightened mortality that we aren't seeing02:54
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): US hospitalizations are about to hit 60,000 for the second Delta wave, and for the 5th time of the pandemicnewsnodes.com/us pic.twitter.com/RL4fb1NIJv → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146731201223337165003:02
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +37 cases (now 2.8 million) since 9 hours ago03:37
munyWondering,  is this purely a covid-19 conversation and if it would  be reasonable to ask if there are anti-vaxers  amongst us ?  If not please point me me to a room where this might  be acceptable (if you know of one).03:44
xxthere probably are anti-vaxers here, we don't check03:48
xxI've become much more lenient towards a certain subgroup of antivaxers of the sort "I got two doses, gov promised that that was the end of it, and now they say a 3rd one is needed, and now the pfitzer ceo said a booster is needed every 6 months, so fuck them I'm not getting any more"03:49
xxat least they have those two doses...03:49
DreddIt's ok to talk about anti-vax views here as long as it's a reasonable and constructive conversation03:53
DreddThat goes for both sides of it 😂03:53
xxI heard of a young guy who died 30 minutes after receiving the vaccine. He was completely healthy before.03:54
xxHe got hit by a bus on his way out of the vaccine centre03:54
munyyeah my problem exactly except I am starting with zero doses, the school where I work are threatening us with unemployment so the stakes are high, but there is a quote something like "“The proper function of man is to live, not to exist. I shall not waste my days in trying to prolong them. I shall use my time.”03:54
xxit's a difficult position to be in, to argue with antivaxx people, exactly because healthy young people overwhelmingly don't need the vaccine, it doesn't prevent infection, it doesn't prevent spreading it onto others and so on. Yes, it decreases likelihood of all that, but it's still a difficult discussion to have.03:57
Dredd<xx> "Peter: my main worry (that doesn..." <- I hope that doesn't happen04:00
xxI'm already seeing signs of that, but as I said I don't have sufficient data to say it definitely is the case04:01
Dreddxx: It doesn't totally stop them but it does have some effect which on a population level is useful. And it has a greater effect on those who would end up unlucky with a severe case of covid04:02
xxyeah, I am not denying the benefits of the vaccine, but at the same time I can't just outright dismiss these antivax arguments when they make them, which makes it harder than it should be04:02
muny Thanks xx and Dredd, I'm not here to convert anyone :) just hoping to find a little support from peers, I only wish the Vax had been advertised thus:  "With the vax you have a 1 in 100,000 chance of death, and without the vax you  have a 1 in 10,000, choose wisely!" (or whatever the numbers are)  but to enforce us regardless of risks and endless  vax doses and upgrades?  presumably if you skip the 3rd dose you are regarded as unvaxed04:02
muny.04:02
LjLi think it's another case of politicians talking too much when they could shut up instead04:02
LjLthe "after two doses we'll see the end of this" thing04:03
Dredd<muny> "yeah my problem exactly except I..." <- Why not get the vaccine? I think the quote also doesn't really fit to well with taking a vaccine in a pandemic 😂04:03
xxmuny: yeah, the marketing around the vaccine was a horrible mistake that has caused a lot of trouble04:03
xxLjL: exactly. So many people just completely dismissed all other rules and suggestions, just because they have received 2 doses and so they think everything is over and done with04:04
Dreddmuny: The figures are actually many more zeroes apart. It's complicated though because it varies by individual so the numbers are an average. Also because that way of framing it is about the individuals risk and ignores the effect on others04:05
DreddI used to not get a flu vaccine and got so fucked up by the flu year after year04:06
DreddIt caused now damage to my lungs and I got more and more susceptible04:06
LjL:(04:07
DreddI'm now quite diligent with getting the yearly flu vaccine in offered and it makes a huge difference04:07
DreddIt also annoys me when people come into the office coughing and spluttering because they don't feel like they can take time off for the flu (they can) and it disregards the risk for others04:08
DreddThankfully the overall ability to deal with the flu is much better in our population then covid04:08
munyI have a really good job, and decent pay, and I have been there nearly 20 years, I am well like and well regarded by my employer so to have them say. "No Vax No Job" seems very unfair from where I ' standing,  I am just asking for more time to consider the side effect and longer term.   - I am healthy at nearly 60 years old and take not medication whatsoever.04:08
LjLi suspect when it's an *actual flu*, they'll be stuck in bed no matter how much they want to go to work04:08
xxwell now they come into the office coughing and spluttering, because they are vaxxed and so it can't be covid...04:08
DreddIn a few years that will hopefully be the case with COVID too and only those vulnerable will need new vaccines04:09
LjLxx, he's talking about the flu04:09
DreddLjL: Some people aren't totally knocked off their feet by something that destroys me 😂04:09
xxmeh, same deal for any respiratory disease, they might as well be vaxxed against the flu, but still come in with coughing and sneezing04:09
muny lunch is is on the table .. I will return. - stay well04:09
LjLthe flu vaccine has an efficacy that varies widely depending on the year04:10
LjLsomewhere between 10% and 60%04:10
Dreddmuny: It's been a year now, they work exactly the same way as previous vaccines in their effect and billions of doses have been given04:11
DreddLjL: I suspect I get more from it since even a little boost is useful04:11
xxI still wonder if we'll have killed flu-b that only has humans as reservoir04:11
LjLDredd, possible04:11
DreddI thought the standard figure was about 50%04:12
LjLxx, actually, well we didn't, but a strain likely went extinct in 201204:12
LjLerr 202104:12
LjLDredd, as an average maybe, but what i'm saying is there's a *lot* of variance04:12
DreddYeah04:12
LjLi mention 10% because one year it actually was 10%04:12
LjLhopefully it's not 10% every year so the average can come close to 50% :P04:13
Dreddmuny: Bye 🙂04:13
Dredd10% against what strains though etc04:13
LjLanyway, i haven't got a flu vaccine because... cultural thing i guess, i never got one really. but last time i looked at italy's data, this year we have a *lot* more flu-like diseases (they don't count flu separately because they don't sequence) than any other recent year except 2009 with swine04:14
LjLDredd, just overall 10% during that particular year04:14
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: A chewing gum that could reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. A chewing gum laced with a plant-grown protein serves as a “trap” for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, reducing viral load in saliva and potentially tamping down transmission, according to a new study. → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/r95x7k/a_chewing_gum_that_could_reduce_sarscov2/04:17
LjLDredd, look at page 5 of the first attachment at the bottom https://w3.iss.it/site/rmi/influnet/pagine/rapportoInflunet.aspx04:18
LjLit's apparently not *spiking* compared to last time i checked, but it's still much higher than usual04:19
LjLalthough i guess it may be RSV rather than flu, mostly, and/or bronchiolitis which appears widespread in children this year. the age group most affected is 0-4 anyway04:19
LjLbut still, if some of that is actual flu, it's worse than previous years04:20
LjLthe second report is ridiculous though, that's the one where they actually sequences flu... so few cases, but so little sequencing to begin with04:21
pepeehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6hUoosMOuU04:26
pepeehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuyAtvwP2H404:26
pepeeI suggest watching these videos... first one is titled "Need for vaccine aspiration confirmed, why is this not being done", second one is titled "Aspirate to vaccinate!"04:27
LjLokay, i'm not against aspiration at all, but with Campbell videos, i think i'm going to point out when they are shown that he is *not* a doctor, but a nurse (because way too many people call him "doctor" and i suspect they assume he's an MD), and lately he's expounded some questionable ideas04:28
pepeehe's a nurse, which is something that gives him even more credit on this specific topic04:29
pepeeIMO04:29
LjLfair enough, just a general contextualization04:30
pepeeright, thanks04:31
munyI'm back,  @pepee  what are the video's about,  cautious cause sometime the algorithm sends more of the same.04:56
pepeemuny: the way people are being injected could be a factor in how blood clots appear04:57
pepee... and old nurses were taught a safer way to do it04:59
munyThanks pepee,  Yes, watching the vid now,  he seems like a balanced sort of chap.05:00
muny05:24
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +43500 cases (now 6.2 million) since 23 hours ago05:29
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 838: The magic virus bus: The New York City Virus Hunters join TWiV to reveal how local students engage in safe virus surveillance and conduct science research right in their neighborhoods, followed by an update on variant of concern Omicron. → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-838/06:11
BrainstormUpdates for La Guajira, Colombia: +197 cases (now 46165) since a day ago — Lombardy, Italy: +2990 cases (now 943466), +19 deaths (now 34447) since 23 hours ago — India: +8895 cases (now 34.6 million) since 23 hours ago06:31
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: Conservatives’ aversion to masks is a uniquely American phenomenon. Politically conservative Americans are less likely than liberals to comply with recommended health-protective behaviors such as mask wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic, but this [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/r994qu/conservatives_aversion_to_masks_is_a_uniquely/07:25
sifisegaanyone here from Australia?07:59
Dredd<LjL> "okay, i'm not against aspiration..." <- I think he's referring to the paper that suggests a potential mechanism behind the AZ bloodclots? But so far he's presenting this as "confirmation" or what I assume is a fact08:37
DreddJust kinda annoying. I have no doubt he knows how to inject someone well but I doubt his ability to interpret and present research accurately08:38
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: Don't panic about Omicron variant, WHO says → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r9ac40/covid_dont_panic_about_omicron_variant_who_says/08:39
Dredd> lately he's expounded some questionable ideas08:43
DreddLjL  A very courteous way of putting it 😛. We could say he's recently expounded some completely wrong ideas which he presented as authoritative facts which showed he doesn't really know what he's talking about or how to interpret pharmacokinetics  😀08:43
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US makes it mandatory for all incoming passengers to carry negative Covid-19 test report → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/us-mandatory-incoming-passengers-negative-covid-19-test-report-7657081/09:07
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Great stuff from @jburnmurdoch on reports from the ground and latest hospital data in South Africa.It appears prior infection/immunity from vaccines offers solid protection against severe disease But cases are growing so fast it’s still a threat [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/146741137579021516809:35
BrainstormUpdates for India: +280 deaths (now 470900) since 10 hours ago10:34
Timvde% cases Belgium10:50
TimvdeEh10:50
Timvde%cases Belgium10:50
BrainstormTimvde: Belgium has had 1.8 million confirmed cases (15.9% of all people) and 27167 deaths (1.5% of cases) as of a day ago. 25.1 million tests were done (7.3% positive). 8.8 million were vaccinated (76.8%). +17910 cases, +47 deaths, +111535 tests since 23 hours ago. See https://epistat.wiv-isp.be/covid/10:50
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: Covid-19 and Vitamin D - a retrospective study → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/r9cdzi/covid19_and_vitamin_d_a_retrospective_study/11:08
darsieAustria's lockdown works.11:16
BrainstormUpdates for France: +1 deaths (now 120441) since a day ago11:36
BrainstormNew from Politico: Dutch Princess Beatrix tests positive for coronavirus: The former Dutch queen recently told reporters she had received her vaccination booster shot. → https://www.politico.eu/article/princess-beatrix-coronavirus-positive-netherlands/11:45
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): Racism & discrimination is getting out of hand (La Tribuna, Spain). Specially as over 80% of the initial COVID intro in South Africa came from Europe - Tegally et al Nature Medicine 2021. Is not time to stop the discrimination and face this global epidemic [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/146744627250434867511:54
Dreddhttps://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/cinema-co-drakeford-covid-passes-22365369?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar12:06
DreddThis is what happens when they try to enforce restrictions in the UK12:08
Dreddjoerg de-facto @de-facto:libera.chat12:08
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Tulsans of the Year: Nurse's wake-up call for COVID-19 shots goes global as daughter hospitalized → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/r9dkwk/tulsans_of_the_year_nurses_wakeup_call_for/12:13
BrainstormUpdates for Nepal: +200 cases (now 822592), +1 deaths (now 11541), +7995 tests (now 4.7 million) since 23 hours ago12:13
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Latest posts: @thomasppeacock Thomas Peacock: Putative host origins of RNA insertions in SARS-CoV-2 genomes → https://virological.org/t/putative-host-origins-of-rna-insertions-in-sars-cov-2-genomes/761/212:32
joerghmm >>without the vax you  have a 1 in 10,000<< I think muny should redo their math12:46
BrainstormNew from ECDC: Epidemiological update: Omicron variant of concern (VOC) – data as of 5 December 2021 (12.00): As of 5 December and since 4 December 2021, 16 additional SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern (VOC) cases have been confirmed in the European [... want %more?] → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/epidemiological-update-omicron-variant-concern-voc-data-5-december-2021-120012:59
BrainstormUpdates for Bangladesh: +176 cases (now 1.6 million), +6 deaths (now 27995), +16428 tests (now 11.0 million) since a day ago13:03
joerg.title https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/cinema-co-drakeford-covid-passes-22365369?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar13:16
Brainstormjoerg: From www.walesonline.co.uk: Cinema & Co advertise Muppet Christmas Carol screening 'starring Drakeford as Scrooge' - Wales Online13:16
joerghmmm13:16
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 05DEC21 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/r9eflb/global_covid_cases_for_05dec21/13:19
joerg((redo math)) in Germany 1 out of ~800 died from covid13:24
joergso far13:24
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Travel changes too late to halt potential new wave - scientist → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-5953679513:37
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): Science talks: Europe was responsible for over 80% of the early introductions of COVID-19 in South Africa. Results published at Nature Medicine 2021 (Respected Journal with high impact factor) - Why discriminate Africa now?  nature.com/articles/s4159… [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/146748169576297677114:15
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +43176 cases (now 6.2 million) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +41565 cases (now 10.5 million) since 23 hours ago14:30
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: 183 cases of Omikron found in Denmark → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/r9fotx/183_cases_of_omikron_found_in_denmark/15:30
de-factojoerg, its exponentially dependent on age, with previous variants IFR doubled with each increase of age by 5.75 years15:32
de-factoso it heavily depends on demographics and vaccination waning by age groups15:33
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): Hieronder ook de verspreiding van Omicron in het VK. Verdubbelingstijd van ca. 3 dagen... Sampling biases mogelijk, maar snelheid van verspreiding consistent met die in Zuid-Afrika, en dat in een hoog gevaccineerde populatie. twitter.com/Forensic_Stats… → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/146750279075903897915:39
joergde-facto: hm? what is dependent on age?15:59
joergmy >>in Germany 1 out of ~800 died << was a simple "rephrasing" of 101k deaths in 81mio16:01
joergof course I'd assume 90% of those deaths are within the 10% group >60y16:04
joergmere ballpark numbers16:05
joergall that in reply to >><joerg> hmm >>without the vax you  have a 1 in 10,000<< I think muny should redo their math<<16:06
joergwithout the vax you have a 1 in 1000 chance to die, rather than 1 to 10 00016:07
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Latest topics: Uncategorized: Selection analysis identifies significant mutational changes in Omicron that are likely to influence both antibody [... want %more?] → https://virological.org/t/selection-analysis-identifies-significant-mutational-changes-in-omicron-that-are-likely-to-influence-both-antibody-neutralization-and-spike-function-part-1-of-2/77116:07
joergright now the stats say more like 1 to 200, given in D we see 50k/d average incidences and 250 or so average fatalities per day16:10
joergand that's for vaxed and unvaxed in total16:11
joergwon't change much since 90% of those 50k are unvaxed anyway16:12
de-factoinfection fatality ratio IFR = constant(vaccination, comorbidities, variant, contamination_dose, etc) * 2 ^ (age/5.75years)16:14
joergFeynman math16:15
generathe I has not been at 50 k per day two weeks ago, did it?16:24
de-facto21st of Nov we had an average of 51k daily new infections in Germany16:26
genera*scratches beard*16:27
generaso we have changed that?16:27
generaok j/k16:27
joergfor details see http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm16:33
joerghttps://i.imgur.com/jyPwuq2.png16:35
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +2508 cases (now 1.8 million) since 21 hours ago16:41
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Omicron's rapid growth in the UK, with 68% of its population vaccinated, adds further concern beyond what we're seeing in South Africa twitter.com/Forensic_Stats… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146751986822424576516:46
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Let me be clear as I’ve emphasized in the past. Japan’s success is a #VaccinePlus strategy, exemplifying the wide use of masks and other mitigation measures. There are several countries with higher vaccination rates that haven’t replicated Japan’s containment → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146752311425474969617:04
p0indextermaybe also because the japanese public is on board w/ the public policy more completely and they do a better job in terms of thier personal behaviore17:17
joerg>>Suggests that in UK Omicron could be doubling share of cases in <3 days.<< https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1467519868224245765  :-S17:19
LjLUgh17:21
LjLThere's a TON of people queuing outside the vaccine centet17:21
Bakuninhi akevinhuang217:29
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +23115 cases (now 2.8 million), +26 deaths (now 20118) since 23 hours ago17:30
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Sunday 05 December 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/r9iyto/sunday_05_december_2021_update/17:32
Bakuninhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03471-w17:41
Bakuninhttps://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc203136417:48
LjLIt's crowded as hell in here17:50
de-factohope you got your trusty 3M ffp217:52
joergtake care!17:58
joergFebruary 2020 when I returned from holidays in Madrid, they had those sterilizing aerosol/fog dispensers mounted to the ceiling above the security check at airport. I wonder what became of that concept18:01
Bakuninpnas.org refusing connections to certain articles, interesting18:02
de-factojoerg, passengers got drunk by inhaling ethanol? :D18:03
joergno idea :-D18:03
Bakuninhttps://pnas.org/content/118/36%20/e2103154118.short18:04
de-factoif it makes people cough it may even be counter productive?18:05
de-factoBakunin, its a "short" url, do you have to full DOI ?18:05
joergI didn't even notice any smell18:05
de-factointeresting18:05
joergreally no idea what it was18:06
Bakuninno, i cant get it to load18:06
joergor if it been effective at all18:06
Bakuninall connections to pnas.org break for me18:06
Bakunineven on VPNs18:06
Bakuninbecause I guess that's spooky info18:07
de-factomaybe they are having a server issue, i guess trying later could help18:07
de-factocant load it either18:07
joergneither here18:07
joergwhat is pnas.org?18:07
Bakuninproceedings of the national academy of sciences18:08
joergit's weekend ;-)18:08
de-factoerm your url is weird, try https://www.pnas.org/content/118/36/e2103154118.short18:08
Bakuninhere we go18:09
Bakuninhttps://www.pnas.org/content/118/36/e2103154118.short18:09
Bakuninyep thx18:09
de-facto.title https://www.pnas.org/content/118/36/e2103154118.short18:09
Brainstormde-facto: From www.pnas.org: SARS-CoV-2 escape from a highly neutralizing COVID-19 convalescent plasma | PNAS18:09
BakuninI had to add the www and when I did, I saw it had a space18:09
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: Pro-Trump counties now have far higher COVID death rates. Misinformation is to blame → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/r9jq0n/protrump_counties_now_have_far_higher_covid_death/18:09
BakuninBoomer remover18:10
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Latest posts: Putative host origins of RNA insertions in SARS-CoV-2 genomes: Hey Tom - great analysis, as always! As for the insertion in Omicron, I think we have to be careful what we can and cannot conclude. A lot of people take this as meaning that [... want %more?] → https://virological.org/t/putative-host-origins-of-rna-insertions-in-sars-cov-2-genomes/761/318:19
Bakuninhost derivation, like when the researcher used the extra step of infecting monkeys to propagate the virus for escape mutants?18:21
Bakuninhttps://www.cnn.com/2021/11/16/health/smallpox-vials-found/index.html18:27
JuerdBakunin: Those turned out to contain vaccinia.18:28
Bakuninwink18:29
JuerdWink?18:29
Juerdhttps://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/18/health/smallpox-vials-vaccine/index.html18:29
LjL-MatrixI just had a Pfizer18:30
JuerdLjL-Matrix: Congrats!18:30
LjL-MatrixThey gave me the choice with Moderna18:30
LjL-MatrixI stayed with Pfizer since I had absolutely no side effects before (apart from arm pain) and it's not clear from studies whether half dose Moderna may be better18:31
LjL-MatrixThanks Juerd18:31
BakuninJuerd yes, two days later, that's called "damage control"18:31
LjL-Matrixde-facto might say it would have been wiser to alternate vaccines for maximum protection, he might be right, but oh well, I had to decide in seconds and I didn't expect a choice18:32
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +15010 cases (now 5.1 million), +43 deaths (now 134195), +525108 tests (now 122.3 million) since 23 hours ago — India: +2706 deaths (now 473326) since 18 hours ago18:33
JuerdI'll take any Pfizer or Moderna as a booster. Unfortunately, I won't be eligible until January or more likely February, even though it's already been 7 months since the completion of my initial (Moderna) series.18:34
LjLI have a new phone and I forgot to install the contact tracing app on it, I remembered while I was queueing outside, fortunately it installed and ran without issues :p18:35
LjLFew people here use it I'm afraid, but if there's one circumstance where I should have it. .18:35
joergre >>putative host origins<< I see a 8 or just 7 matched pairs at max, 4^8 = 65 536 FWIW. Gut feeling says the likelihood is high for this being mere coincidence18:35
JuerdI don't think the apps are very useful anymore, as they didn't get reconfigured to account for the greater fitness of delta, let alone omicron (afaik). I'll still use it though.18:36
LjLJuerd: that's strange, it's now 5 months here, but I thought most countries had agreed on at least 6 mknths18:36
LjLJuerd: they weren't very useful before either tbh. They had some tight limitations on how much exposure time you needed, but the virus doesn't care18:36
JuerdLjL: This country is fucking up the whole booster thing. The national health board (Gezondheidsraad) advised preparation of a booster campaign in september, but they only just recently actually started the campaign.18:37
LjLStill, a small chance to be traced is better than no chance18:37
LjLJuerd: sorry, Netherlands or Belgium? I should remember18:37
JuerdNetherlands18:37
LjLHow are the cases going? I haven't had a look recently18:37
JuerdStabilizing but test positivity is still shockingly high18:38
LjL%cases Netherlands18:38
BrainstormLjL: Netherlands has had 2.8 million confirmed cases (16.0% of all people) and 20118 deaths (0.7% of cases) as of an hour ago. 19.2 million tests were done (14.5% positive). 13.3 million were vaccinated (75.9%). +23115 cases, +26 deaths since 23 hours ago. See https://coronadashboard.government.nl/18:38
Juerdhttps://raw.githubusercontent.com/YorickBleijenberg/COVID_data_RIVM_Netherlands/master/plots/63_ECDC_6.png18:38
LjL14.5% positive since the start is pretty high yeah18:39
Juerd>20% of tests is positive now.18:39
ArsaneritHow meaningful is test positivity if it only considers PCR tests, when most tests are antigen tests and people may do a PCR test only if the antigen test is positive?18:39
LjLAlthough... Here it's much lower *now* but that's because the vast majority of tests are silly rapid tests18:39
LjLArsanerit: here the antigen tests are also counted18:40
ArsaneritAmong German schoolkids I think also >20% of PCR tests is positive, but if you count all the antigen tests they do several times per week in school then apparently the test positivity rate is in the order of 0.01% (meaning: positive antigen tests confirmed by positive PCR test)18:40
JuerdArsanerit: Don't know exactly, but I do know that I won't be standing in line when 1 out of 5 in that queue's going to be positive.18:40
LjL%cases Italy18:40
BrainstormLjL: Italy has had 5.1 million confirmed cases (8.5% of all people) and 134195 deaths (2.6% of cases) as of 7 minutes ago. 122.3 million tests were done (4.2% positive). 47.4 million were vaccinated (78.6%). +15010 cases, +43 deaths, +525108 tests since 23 hours ago. See https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-dashboard or https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/18:40
ArsaneritJuerd: Not even outside with distance?18:40
ArsaneritI stood in a drive-through queue, 3 metre distance and with FFP2 mask.  I think that's safe enough.18:40
JuerdArsanerit: If it was outside, with distance, then sure, but they have lines indoors.18:40
LjLI'd also be conflicted if I had to have a test tbh18:40
ArsaneritDo you not have drive-through test centres there?18:40
JuerdMost drive-through testing centers were closed here, and reconfigured to be indoors.18:40
LjLI wish we had drive-throughs18:41
ArsaneritWhy did they reconfigure them?18:41
JuerdArsanerit: The country has gone bonkers.18:41
LjLThey also "reconfigured" vaccine centers here to be much more crowded :p18:41
LjLAs in they closed quite a few18:41
ArsaneritAt least in vaccine centres hopefully you don't have 20% of people positiev.18:41
JuerdArsanerit: There's no explanation for most of the utter idiocy when it comes to taking risks with covid.18:42
LjLI wonder this 15 min wait... What's the chances of an allergic reaction vs the chances of covid from someone in the same waiting room?18:42
LjLAlso I assume most people here today are "former" anti-vax since I felt most weren't third doses like mine18:42
JuerdArsanerit: Oh, haha. No :( *cries*. Vaccine center == test center, for most of them, in .nl. So when you're getting your vaccine, you migt end up in the same fucking line as those who are 20% likely infected.18:42
joergJuerd: how would any arbitrary queue have 20% positives? unless it's the "get your PCR result" queue18:42
LjLUgh18:42
ArsaneritMy Corona-Warn-App gave me a warning the day after I queued (outside, with mask and distance) for a PCR test (which I got because of a previous Corona-Warn-App warning after a trip to The Netherlands and back).18:42
LjLThat's scary Juerd18:42
Juerdjoerg: It's that line.18:43
joergaaah18:43
LjLArsanerit: my app never gave me a warning but we have silly low adoption18:43
LjL%s numeri immuni18:43
BrainstormLjL, 233500.0 hits: https://www.immuni.italia.it/ (Immuni - Sito Ufficiale) — https://www.immuni.italia.it/dashboard.html (I numeri di Immuni) — https://www.immuni.italia.it/faq.html (Domande Frequenti - Immuni) — https://www.immuni.italia.it/report.html (Segnala positività - Immuni) [... want %more?]18:43
JuerdI'm definitely getting one proper FFP3 mask to wear when getting my booster.18:43
LjLHmm none of those18:44
JuerdFor the rest I'm fine with FFP2.18:44
LjLThey have one page with all the numbers, downloads, positives, reports18:44
ArsaneritIn Germany the adoption increased after the app grew additional features such as storing certificates (test or vaccine) and informing about local infection and hospitalisation rates.18:44
ArsaneritI should probably call my GP to make a booster appointment for January.  I don't think I'm eligible now, as my second dose was less than six months ago.18:44
joergJuerd: netherlands fsckd up thoroughly their complete organization then? :-/18:45
Juerdjoerg: Yes, and there are signs (but no definitive proof) that some parts of that are not accidental, but part of a greater risk acceptance strategy.18:45
joergOMG18:46
ArsaneritDutch: "we should not sacrifice our freedom for our health"?18:46
JuerdI wish https://www.ginnymooy.com/2021/11/22/voordat-we-2g-omarmen-moeten-we-dit-begrijpen-over-het-coronabeleid/ was available in English18:46
Arsaneritdeepl translate is pretty good between germanic languages18:46
joergArsanerit: depending on where you live. I got my booster after 4.5months, Bavaria18:47
JuerdIt rather convincingly explains how everything that's happening here ties together if you consider it from a risk acceptance standpoint.18:47
joergvaccination center18:47
Arsaneritjoerg: Huh, I thought it was only available six months after the second dose.18:47
joergLjL: wide decision made in a hurry - BNT is less questionmarks than Moderna18:48
joergArsanerit: nope, now 518:48
ArsaneritIn Dutch press I hvae read contributions proposing a risk acceptance approach, usually pointing toward Sweden as a positive example; in German press I have not read this.18:48
joergand 4.5 was no problem either, depends on your luck though18:48
JuerdI'm actually considering traveling to Austria since they appear to be doing boosters for foreigners too. But it's expensive to go there and I'd need a hotel to rest during the side effects, and I'm not sure how to evaluate remotely whether a hotel has proper ventilation that isn't shared between rooms.18:49
ArsaneritI think people getting their first or second dose should go first, before me.  I'm quite low risk, having almost no contacts.18:49
ArsaneritJuerd: You could go camping? ;-)18:50
JuerdArsanerit: Camping in winter? Not with my health.18:50
joergjudging by the statistics and charts, you should probably get a BNT booster (after 2 x BNT) already a 3 months after 2nd shot18:50
Arsaneritjoerg: And after that?18:50
ArsaneritShould everyone get a vaccine every 3 months until ... ?18:51
joergkeep in mind it's called booster for hysterical raisins, actually it's the final shot of initial immunization, not a booster18:51
JuerdH[yi]st[eo]rically, repeat infections have sometimes been called booster infections.18:51
joergturned out covid vaccination needs a 3-shot regimen18:52
Arsanerit("hysterical raisins" sounds comical)18:52
ArsaneritDoes it last longer after the 3rd dose then?18:52
JuerdArsanerit: Yes, it very probably does.18:52
joergyes, very very likely18:52
Bakuninhttps://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/146687463655410073718:52
Bakunin^ super spreader omicron event in Norway18:52
ArsaneritJuerd: The Dutch article not only has a language barrier, but also appears to assume the reader is broadly familiar with the Dutch policy in the past.18:52
JuerdArsanerit: Good point18:53
JuerdArsanerit: You might be, I guess?18:53
ArsaneritI am only vaguely familiar with Dutch corona policy, not very closely.18:53
ArsaneritI did visit The Netherlands recently, and even dared to visit a cinema, apparently on the day that a new "lockdown" started.  We had to "show a QR code", but weren't told what the QR code should encode (2G, 3G, 2G+...).  They did enforce it.  I was the only one to keep my FFP2-mask on inside.18:54
ArsaneritI still wonder why cases in Sweden are relatively low.18:56
Arsanerit%cases Sweden18:58
BrainstormArsanerit: Sweden has had 1.2 million confirmed cases (11.7% of all people) and 15170 deaths (1.3% of cases) as of 2 days ago. 13.7 million tests were done (8.8% positive). 7.6 million were vaccinated (73.7%). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden&legacy=no18:58
BrainstormArsanerit: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Sweden, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it.18:58
Bakunindont you use worldometers.info?18:59
Bakuninhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/19:00
Arsaneritis that reliable?19:00
Bakuninwhy wouldnt it be19:00
ArsaneritWhere do they get their data?19:01
BakuninFolkhälsomyndigheten19:01
BakuninAntal fall av covid-19 i Sverige – data till och med föregående dag publiceras varje tisdag-fredag kl. 14:0019:01
ArsaneritJuerd: "De drama’s die zich in sommige verpleeghuizen nog altijd voordoen? We horen ze niet." — is that true?  Do the Dutch press not report about overloaded intensive cares, patients suffering from long covid, etc.?19:03
ArsaneritMy unvaccinated colleague believes that the German public broadcaster are deliberately over-reporting on such problems in Germany in order to make people unnecessarily afraid and therefore trigger up support for limiting our rights.19:04
JuerdArsanerit: Press is mostly reporting about ICs but not much about the rest of the healthcare system. It's definitely not kept secret that everything is highly overwhelmed, but almost nobody seems to be making enough of a big deal of it. It seems that the supposed risk acceptance strategy is mostly working.19:04
joergusual boring conspiracy believers' 10 commendmends 10119:05
ArsaneritThe article you linked also appears to allege something of a conspiracy, but in the other direction.19:06
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): 3 countries with 60% total population vaccinated amidst ~100% Delta@OurWorldInData  Currently, Czechia is #3, Hungary #7 for highest cases per capita in the world pic.twitter.com/yzaUUCxni8 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146755376873246310419:06
Juerdjoerg: The problem is that we actually seem to have a conspiracy on our hands, that's completely out in the open - people appear to be conspiring to influence the public opinion to be accepting of sickness and death.19:06
joergto start with, german press generally doesn't select their reports according to what dark powers want for their evil plans19:06
JuerdArsanerit: Yes. I felt dismissive of what it said initially because of that, but have come to believe it.19:07
joergquite possible they actually do over-coverage aka emphasis of scary stuff - simply because scary headlines sell19:08
JuerdThere's still Hanlon's razor, of course.19:08
JuerdBut I just can't fathom this much incompetence.19:08
Arsaneritjoerg: You don't need to convince me.19:09
joerg:-)19:09
Arsaneritjoerg: He came up with some highly ranked person in NDR being married to a senior figure in CDU or something like that, which isn't at all convincing of anything.19:09
joergjust re-iterating the very obvious arguments against such BS19:09
ArsaneritI pointed out that the taz is about as independent as press can be, and he admitted that this is true, but regrets that they still support lockdowns and restrictions.  So, well.19:10
ArsaneritHe wants that the press offer more space for people arguing in favour of the "acceptance" strategy.19:10
joerg*shrug* lost case I guess19:10
joergI want a pink pony... wait, I want a ferrari19:11
Arsanerit"Let's keep our freedoms and accept that many people will die; let's deny healthcare to people unlikely to survive"19:11
JuerdBut well, anyway, the head of the infectious disease department of our CDC-equivalent (RIVM) is an avid anti-masker (who doesn't ignore the mask mandates, fortunately) and believes carnival is "celebrated in small groups", etc. So we were to be screwed from the very beginning of this crisis. The guy should have been replaced, imnsho.19:11
ArsaneritIn Sweden in the first wave I think they let lots of people die in care homes — that's alos a way to prevent overloading intensive cares.19:11
ArsaneritIf you don't accept high risk patients into the intensive care to begin with, then those intensive care units might not be overloaded.19:12
joerglet's deny healthcare for people who demand BS19:12
Arsaneritno, let's not deny healthcare for anybody19:12
joergack19:12
ArsaneritI still need to work with my colleague.  He *finally* moved to home-office since the past week, for the first time.19:12
Bakuninhealthcare is NOT an infinite resource19:13
JuerdArsanerit: .nl does accept elderly people into the IC, but most don't of 80+ don't want to.19:13
ArsaneritAnd so far he has been following the law, so I'm curious to see what he will do if mandatory vaccinations come.  I suspect he will take the vaccine, but under protest.19:13
Arsaneritbbl19:13
Juerdhttps://www.stichting-nice.nl/ has charts; have a look at the one titled "Leeftijdsdistributie van IC-patiënten met verdachte of bewezen COVID-19 die zijn overleden of uit het ziekenhuis zijn ontslagen"19:14
Bakuninvaccine deniers should just be sent to tents where untrained people google their symptoms.19:14
Bakuninthey deserve no right to healthcare19:14
JuerdTranslated: age distribution of IC patients with suspected or proven COVID-19 who died or were released from the hospital19:14
Juerds/the hospital/hospital/19:15
JuerdOr the one below, which has totals per age group. Those above 80 are hardly even admitted to the IC.19:16
JuerdI don't know if this is different for other countries19:16
joergdenmark omicron cases explode, triple in 48h?19:20
joergin line with UK19:20
JuerdOh fuck19:27
joergmight be bogus nonsense, given the very low number of cases we have yet?19:31
joergnot in UK though, >1% is a tangable number19:31
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Belgian police fired water cannon on Sunday to disperse protesters opposed to compulsory health measures against the coronavirus pandemic. Some 8,000 people marched through Brussels towards the headquarters of the European Union, chanting [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r9lkzx/belgian_police_fired_water_cannon_on_sunday_to/19:34
joerganyway I know I'd prefer to read news like >>despite mass screening, no further omicron cases found<< - ala those don't exist which in itself is a bad sign already19:34
Bakunin^ there are officially too many humans :)19:34
joergalas*19:35
ArsaneritBakunin: I disagree about vaccine deniers, but I do agree there are too many humans.19:35
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +43393 cases (now 10.5 million), +54 deaths (now 146055) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +2530 cases (now 1.8 million) since 23 hours ago19:35
BrainstormNew from Politico: Belgian politics: ‘Vaccines don’t make you free’: Thousands protest COVID-19 measures in Brussels → https://www.politico.eu/article/vaccines-dont-make-you-free-thousands-protest-covid-19-measures-in-brussels/19:43
Dredd<LjL> "There's a TON of people queuing..." <- I had to wait for a while to get mine too19:51
Bakuninspread more FUD on twitter and facebook, the lines will dwindle again19:53
joerghm?19:54
BakuninI love using those outlets to spread disinfo.  It helps fix political problems in my country.19:55
Bakuninthe fewer republicans who get vaccinated, the better19:55
joergweird policy for a weird country19:56
Bakuninit's also approximately 1:1 correlation, antivaxers are Trump freaks19:56
BakuninI used to be mad about it, until I realized they're all fucking dying, and now I'm happy about it and help spread it19:57
BakuninI just wish covid were more deadly19:57
joergyeah, our antivaxes here are not as mad as ~50% of folks over there19:57
Bakuninand there were no monoclonal antibodies19:57
joergand we got only a maybe 20% of them19:58
LjLBakunin: it is one of the common sources, but the bot just asks about sources for individual countries because a country's official source may have more specific data. I should probably add also "in English" to the request though19:59
LjLSo for countries where there is no specified source, the bot links to offloop (which is good although its main source is broken now so it must use the alternate), otherwise it links to the thing that's hardcoded for that country. The data the bot itself uses don't change though20:00
joerg.cases germany20:01
Brainstormjoerg: Germany has had 6.2 million confirmed cases (7.4% of all people) and 103594 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 57 minutes ago. 85.8 million tests were done (7.2% positive). 59.8 million were vaccinated (71.9%). +43176 cases since 23 hours ago. See https://corona.rki.de/20:01
joerg:-)20:01
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "There was evidence of ongoing active brain injury at follow-up 4 months later."medrxiv.org/cgi/content/sh…  Regarding increases in serum Tau and IgM autoantibodies observed in convalescence  (HC=healthy controls, TBI= traumatic brain injury for comparison, [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146756803236499046420:02
Bakuninic20:02
LjLI didn't think to ask the doctor whether the Moderna would be half or full dose ;( I just assumed it would be half and went with Pfizer20:03
joerghmmm, help me out please! >>6.2 million confirmed cases [...] 103594 deaths (1.7% of cases)<< does that compute?20:03
joergaa well, it does, I guess.20:04
* joerg needs more coffee20:04
joergLjL: for now you're fine with BNT for shure. In 3 months the soonest you might consider if you should get a Moderna on top. 3 Months since that's the point in time after 2nd shot BNT where immunity started to drop significantly20:07
LjLjoerg: this is my third shot not second20:08
joergand that's probably the major advantage of moderna: it lasts longer it seems20:08
joergLjL: I know20:08
joergI'm extrapolating20:08
LjLWell I can't decide to get something else in three months :p20:09
LjLUnless they decide to just give people a vaccine every 15 days and somehow have the resources to!20:09
joergyou can't? hmm. I'm not sure but very much I think I could get a shot any time, just denying I ever been vaccinated against covid so far20:09
LjLI didn't know Moderna waned slower20:10
LjLjoerg: they have all my info saved, they scan my healthcare card, they know who I am20:10
LjLI thought AZ potentially waned slower but the mRNA vaccines were similar. I also considered the US and UK studies on antibodies after the third dose but their had looked at full dose Moderns so I didn't think I had useful info from them20:11
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Big (order of magnitude) 3rd shot impact of J&J or Pfizer vaccine after 2 doses of Pfizer for both neutralizing antibody and T-cell response vs Delta medrxiv.org/content/10.110… confirms powerful booster effect and extends to J&J, cellular immune response pic.twitter.com/Jbnx5UDuxf → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146757161275289190820:11
LjLIiiitches20:12
* LjL doesn't scratch20:12
joergLjL: https://i.imgur.com/CfThRn3.png20:13
joergde-facto dug upthe origin paper20:13
joerghttp://reisenweber.net/irclogs/libera/__covid-19/search?q=nordstr..%3Fm%28%3Fi%2920:15
de-facto.title https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=394941020:16
Brainstormde-facto: From papers.ssrn.com: Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccination Against Risk of Symptomatic Infection, Hospitalization, and Death Up to 9 Months: A Swedish Total-Population Cohort Study by Peter Nordström, Marcel Ballin, Anna [...]20:16
LjLOh I forgot about the Swedes20:18
LjLBut still, third dose would have been half dose (I think), so it may be more similar to Pfizer?20:19
DreddLjL: congrats on your re-enpfizening20:22
LjLAnyway I was taking it for granted that I wouldn't get a choice so I didn't refresh my knowledge on Pfizer vs Modena ;(20:22
LjLThanks :p20:22
LjLSo far arm itches a little but that's all20:22
DreddMy booster was my mildest covid jab yet20:23
DreddI take that as a sign my body is getting more efficient (in terms of not causing so much collateral damage) at dealing with it20:23
joergLjL: I think that diagram was done on a 2-shot regimen so Moderna and pfizer both used 100% doeses on that cohort.20:23
de-factoyeah LjL  i dont think it does matter too much if booster is Moderna or BioNTech20:23
de-factoe.g. 50µg or 30µg20:24
LjLProbably not much, but you know, hindsight regret always hits :p20:24
joergI don't know if 50% 3rd shot makes moderna more like pfizer20:24
LjLI need an anti-regret vaccine20:24
joerghehe20:25
DreddTry punching your regret in the face20:25
Dredd😀20:25
DreddNOT TODAY REGRET20:25
* LjL hits Accept20:25
joergI got AZ+BNT+BNT and am happy with it, though at the point I got my 3rd, I had preferred Moderna if it wasn't for the 6km to the vax center where I could get it. So I settled for BNT 3rd and now I'm rather happy with that20:26
DreddTrying to collect them all joerg ?20:27
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Jordan court jails health officials after 10 COVID patients died due to oxygen outage in a major state hospital. Five senior health officials are sentenced to 3 years in prison for medical negligence → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r9mutt/jordan_court_jails_health_officials_after_10/20:30
LjLif anyone's interested, here are the excess deaths in South Africa: https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa20:31
joergDredd: yes, I consider a heterologous vaccination the best20:32
DreddDoes that mean you'll be going after the real deal vaccination with some nice Omicron soon 😛 ?20:33
joergno sooner than a three monts from now. Well, I guess any omicron-adapted vaccine won't become available any sonner either, rather later20:34
joerggosh, my spelling/typing sucks today20:35
DreddI meant getting omicron for real 😛20:35
LjLi sure hope this massive third dose won't turn out to be a complete waste thanks to omicron ;(20:36
joergdefinitely won't20:37
joergI think we already got first data regarding that20:37
joergunclear how much it helps, but we know it helps20:38
LjLoh?20:38
joergiirc there been first neutralization tests that shown (some) effectiveness against omicron20:41
joergand honestly, anything else would be a complete freak finding20:41
joergthere's never black&white in medicine20:42
joergand no doubt the booster is useful to help with Delta which is what we got right now, so it can't be "a complete waste"20:45
LjLjoerg, well, it does have like twice the mutations as delta20:46
LjLin important places20:46
dTalI just joined some hippy-ish whatsapp groups20:46
LjL%title https://twitter.com/Forensic_Stats/status/1467497592741318666  https://twitter.com/The_Soup_Dragon/status/146709566655184077420:46
BrainstormLjL: From twitter.com: Russell Bradshaw (@Forensic_Stats): "This really does not look good. Suggests that in UK Omicron could be doubling share of cases in <3 days. Rough figs from GISAID on EU suggests similar very rapid [...]20:46
LjLthis is apparently the same doubling time they get in South Africa, so in the UK the vaccine may not be providing meaningful protection from infection :(20:46
dTalone of them is offering forged PCR results for international travel20:46
LjLsigh20:46
dTalanother is asking for "mask exemption papers"20:47
LjLdTal, you may want to leave it. when they raid those channels (i've heard of telegram, not sure if whatsapp is "safer", doubt it) my guess is at least initially, everyone on them gets in some trouble20:47
dTalwhen you say "those channels"20:47
dTalI'm not aware of any such category, or that regular raids on chat channels are a thing20:48
BakuninR0 of 3 for Omicron20:48
dTalI am curious and frightened, where can I learn more20:48
Bakunindon't worry, though, a more deadly variant will be leaked from a lab shortly :)20:49
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Why does this bode well for Omicron?Beta has the most immune escape of the variants of concern. The booster crushed it.Not seen here, but established, is the augmented breadth of antibody response (binding more epitopes)Please get a 3rd  if it's time → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146758110518839705620:49
ArsaneritThe times I checked our local vaccination centre there were queues, but they weren't long.20:49
BakuninShould be a ban on gain-of-function research20:50
LjLdTal, i really have only heard of italian police raids on Telegram channels (or groups, whatever they're called). i'm just extrapolating to whatsapp20:52
dTalraids in connection with fake covid paperwor?20:52
dTal*paperwork?20:52
Bakuninthey even nabbed someone in the US for that20:52
LjLdTal, take green passes, yes20:53
LjLfake*20:53
dTalthe only other talk in that chat is someone feeling unwell with chills20:54
LjLi think some police raids for fake covid certificates also in germany, de-facto joerg?20:54
dTalplague rats, the lot of them20:54
joergI heard sth like that, yeah20:54
dTalthe new-age culture is a scourge20:54
LjLdTal, are you waving your walking stick around?20:55
Arsaneritsteiner20:55
joergLjL: just in time :-) ^^^ https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146758110518839705620:55
dTalLjL: it's not a generational thing, crystal healers and woo merchants can be found in all age groups20:55
ArsaneritI live near a Waldorf/Steiner school.20:56
LjLjoerg, yes i saw it! fingers crossed. just keeping the arm relaxed though20:56
Bakuninhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/08/16/border-patrol-fake-vaccine-cards/20:57
ArsaneritI wonder if there are many antivaccers there.20:57
joergArsanerit: you may bet on that20:59
Arsaneritthey did have a note informing of maskenpflicht for parents visiting the school play on 3 September21:00
joergI think it was this week when they checked such a school and found FIFTY pupils that had fake mask-excemt attests21:00
Arsaneritoops21:01
ArsaneritOpposing vaccines is consistent with alternative medicine but masks?21:02
joergguess why they checked ;-) covid cluster21:02
Arsaneritunderstandable21:03
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: SwissCovid App Monitoring ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/RWESRR4G )21:07
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Open-Source Project Corona-Warn-App - Analysis ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/ACKFN9N4 )21:07
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Immuni - I numeri di Immuni ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/ZQEGMWWN )21:07
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : Add Italian, German and Switzerland exposure notification app "dashbo…: Add Italian, German and Switzerland exposure notification app "dashboards"They usually contain statistics on the number of installs, the number of positives found, and [... want %more?] → https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/6b273974a759d0f8130439b0a53865c662cb89ef21:08
joergLjL: I just notice an extra "-" at end of channel name in [Notice] -RSSBot[LjLmatrix to ##covid-19- Z...21:11
joergnot a problem, just mentioning it21:12
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Anti-mask, anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist among 3 arrested during demonstration at West Edmonton Mall → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r9o0rx/antimask_antivaccine_conspiracy_theorist_among_3/21:17
Bakuninhttps://www.voanews.com/a/france-records-more-than-50-000-daily-covid-19cases/6339659.html21:21
Bakuninhttps://www.france24.com/en/europe/20211205-denmark-reports-concerning-jump-in-omicron-variant-cases-of-covid-1921:21
LjLjoerg, that's just how the notice gets sent i think, in HexChat I have a "-" before the RSSBot and one after the channel name21:22
LjLanyway i don't control that bot, it's Matrix's own RSS bot21:22
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : Add excess deaths report for South Africa: I think I will keep these excess deaths things only here and not on Zotero, as long as they are not strictly associated with COVID → https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/7afabebea82ca4831b9f2bf17b4e53edfdf094ab21:26
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Report on Weekly Deaths in South Africa ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/3GMRM9S5 )21:27
Juerd19:55 < Bakunin> the fewer republicans who get vaccinated, the better21:28
JuerdThat is absolutely horrible. Evil even.21:28
BakuninI see you haven't met republicans :)21:29
BakuninWould you liike a primer?21:30
LjLlet's not hope for others' suffering, or if you have to, let's do it in silence21:30
Bakuninhttps://i.redd.it/7deek6t4io381.png21:30
LjLbesides, vaccinations probably do reduce infections to some extent, so it's not a useful thing to hope for anybody21:30
Bakuninliterally that meme21:31
LjLliterally i don't care, literally i don't even want memes21:31
Bakuninthey are the ones ***against vaccination, masks, social distancing, and shutdowns***21:31
Bakunin***Republicans want more people to die from the virus, it's them or us ***21:31
LjLthis is not useful or productive21:32
LjLBakunin, please read https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/blob/master/COVID-19-chat.md and if you like it go by it, while if you don't like it either accept to go by it anyway, or you can go elsewhere. i don't want hatred to be fomented here. sure, they probably mostly don't want to get vaccinated, but making it into a "them or us" war is completely silly since if THEY don't get vaccinated, YOU run a higher chance of getting the virus to21:34
LjLtoo*21:34
LjLin any case, you could say i *agree* with that meme: i don't care if you care (or even like) that anti-vaxxers die, but you aren't going to *say* here that you hope for people to die.21:35
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu): Should add the caveat that this whole analysis is currently based on the assumption these insertions arose in humans (minus the lab studies).. for most SARS2 insertion events that's probably true... For Omicron this is not so clear at present. → https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/146759754832411444621:54
dzhoso the thing that bugs me about US partisan politics as it touches on vaccinations is that Robert F. Kennedy Jr has had quite a time as a vaccine skeptic22:04
dzhohe is, of course, from a family very notable in Democratic politics, and I think has supported Democratic Party candidates in the past.22:05
dzhoI don't know where he stands on any given COVID vaccine but his work has almost certainly laid the groundwork for current opposition.22:05
dzhoat least partially.22:06
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Get your vaccine booster flair!: Hello r/Coronavirus community! By popular demand, we're now offering flairs to indicate that you've received your COVID-19 booster! Available options now include: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/r9pft9/get_your_vaccine_booster_flair/22:13
dzhoBakunin: I've /ignore'd you for pm'ing me without asking first. Don't do that.22:14
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Good booster effect (Pfizer; Pfizer or J&J) for cellular and antibody responses against Wt, Delta and Beta VoCsmedrxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/LnhtD25x2o → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/146760463901308929222:22
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +23112 cases (now 2.8 million) since 22 hours ago22:29
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Manifestazioni di Massa in diverse Città Europee contro Lockdown e Restrizioni per il Covid19 (I VIDEO che la Tv non vi mostra)! → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_ITALIA/comments/r9pyxo/manifestazioni_di_massa_in_diverse_città_europee/22:41
BrainstormUpdates for India: +8791 cases (now 34.6 million) since 23 hours ago23:06
BrainstormNew from Johnson&Johnson: Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 Booster, Administered Six Months After Two-Dose Regimen of BNT162b2, Shows Substantial Increase in Antibody and T-cell Responses: Preliminary Phase 2 [... want %more?] → https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-booster-administered-six-months-after-two-dose-regimen-of-bnt162b2-shows-substantial-increase-in-antibody-and-t-cell-responses23:09
joerg^^^ wow, do they deliberately aim for heterologous (BNT+BNT+JJ) regimen now?23:28
joergaaah wait, JJ picking up the ball they dropped :-)23:28
joergat least they don't claim >>JJ better for booster after BNT+BNT than a third dose of BNT<< which they'd most likely do if they could23:30
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +43359 cases (now 10.5 million) since 21 hours ago23:31
joergI'd not be too surprised if it actually were better than a homologuos regimen - alas for doing actual tests they lack access to BNT for double-blind studies23:33
joergafter all afaik it's "known" that heterologous AZ+mRNA works better than even plain homologous mRNA regimen23:41
joergso why shouldn't mRNA+mRNA+AZ|JJ ?23:42
xxso vaccines are like pokemon now?23:57
xxgotta collect them all?23:57
sdfgsdfgcan we give voice to all my antivaxx brothers in here ?23:58
sdfgsdfglets see where we all stand23:58
sdfgsdfgcome on23:58
xxI don't think anyone has +v in here23:58
xxexcept for the bot23:58

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