| LjL | %title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.10.21267594v2 | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.medrxiv.org: Estimates of reduced vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization, infection, transmission and symptomatic disease of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron (B.1.1.529), using neutralizing antibody titers [...] | 00:00 |
| LjL | south africa vaccine effectiveness on omicron study | 00:00 |
| LjL | also i've been shown a vaccine tracker (vaccine doses, not vaccine types) that has some graphs that you might like | 00:03 |
| LjL | they aren't quite what i was looking for (correlations), but there are some ratios of things that i wanted to see | 00:04 |
| LjL | de-facto, https://covidvax.live/ | 00:04 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: covidvax.live: Live COVID-19 Vaccination Tracker - See vaccinations in real time! ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/8U2WWGG6 ) | 00:05 | |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): Congrats to @AllieGreaney for defending her PhD thesis today. Allie has made numerous valuable contributions to understanding mutations to the #SARSCoV2 RBD, and all of us at @fredhutch @uwgenome @UW_MSTP are proud to have such an accomplished young scientist as a [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1470890774136950785 | 00:06 |
| LjL | de-facto, you might be glad (even though the EU isn't) that we've decided to test people entering the country, *both* unvaccinated *and* vaccinated | 00:07 |
| de-facto | nice one | 00:07 |
| LjL | (but since that includes Schengen people, the EU is asking questions) | 00:07 |
| LjL | (also not sure how that'll work at land borders) | 00:07 |
| trbp | germany is thinking about not testing boosterd persons | 00:09 |
| de-facto | they they are not thinking... again | 00:09 |
| de-facto | not testing means we simply would not even know the breakthrough rates for boosted | 00:09 |
| trbp | 2g+ should not be tested in some thoughts according the booster status | 00:09 |
| trbp | if that will be 3rd or 4th or 5th dose, who ever knows | 00:10 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Estimates of reduced vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization, infection, transmission and symptomatic disease of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron (B.1.1.529), using neutralizing antibody titers ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/8GV2A8ZP ) | 00:10 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Omicron Appears to Evade Vaccines Better Than Other Variants ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/9DPQ2CU4 ) | 00:10 | |
| de-facto | everyone should get tested, regardless of any status, prioritize vulnerable and potential superspreaders, yet dont excuse the boosted, especially when we dont have a clue how long their protection lasts against Omicron | 00:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Argentina: +4555 cases (now 5.4 million), +34 deaths (now 116826), +52869 tests (now 26.8 million) since a day ago — Mozambique: +733 cases (now 154520), +3648 tests (now 1.0 million) since a day ago | 00:11 |
| trbp | i guess it depends on how fast they are available and if they are about to expire or not | 00:11 |
| LjL | <CarlSagan_> [Ars Technica - Science] Omicron is rising rapidly in the US—3% of cases nationally, 13% in NY and NJ https://arstechnica.com/?p=1820744 2021-12-14T21:49:06 | 00:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of concern → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rgjrec/effectiveness_of_covid19_vaccines_against_the/ | 00:25 |
| sdfgsdfg | Netivot boy, 6, died of heart condition after getting flu – report | 00:29 |
| sdfgsdfg | Health experts have concluded that a 6-year-old boy from Netivot who died suddenly on Monday was stricken with myocarditis as a result of complications from the flu, Kan reports. Yosef Naim, who had recovered a month earlier from the coronavirus, did not wake up Monday morning after going to sleep with a fever. The case had puzzled doctors, who investigated if the death was related to his prior coronavirus infection. | 00:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Paraguay: +98 cases (now 463926), +3 deaths (now 16516), +5552 tests (now 2.0 million) since 23 hours ago — Vanuatu: +1 cases (now 7) since 8 days ago | 00:30 |
| LjL | so no effectiveness for a full course of AZ | 00:31 |
| LjL | good riddance AZ | 00:31 |
| LjL | sdfgsdfg, two infections nearly on top of each other both stressing the heart? | 00:32 |
| LjL | i think i'd seen another paper in the past few days finding no efficacy of AZ against Omicron, but it might have been the same paper (this one was published today supposedly but who knows, with all these preprints) | 00:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus, and an endemic state → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rgk2ek/stochastic_social_behavior_coupled_to_covid19/ | 00:35 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of concern ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/C9JFC349 ) | 00:35 | |
| Dredd | <finely[m]> "It seem the current consensus is..." <- An appropriate hand sanitizer should have no problem taking the virus apart very effectively | 01:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Norway: +6003 cases (now 328747), +5 deaths (now 1141), +102691 tests (now 8.9 million) since 23 hours ago — Reunion: +3374 cases (now 67237), +2 deaths (now 393) since 7 days ago — Botswana: +1554 cases (now 197644), +3 deaths (now 2424), +15422 tests (now 1.9 million) since 5 days ago [... want %more?] | 01:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): If you get exponential growth, you'd buy this UK projection, and realize what it portends for the US:"If Omicron infections continue to double every 2.5 days, as current estimates suggest, there will be a million people infected this coming Sunday alone."ft.com/content/d69a0a… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1470908882348249088 | 01:13 |
| LjL | Dredd, i don't think that's what he meant, he was concerned that alcohol is mutagenic. i don't find that a big concern personally but i do agree that when possible, water and soap is the simplest option | 01:14 |
| Dredd | <LjL> "good riddance AZ" <- It still works as a way of getting to "booster ready" without depleting supplies of "booster appropriate" mRNA vaccines? | 01:15 |
| LjL | Dredd, is it being *used*? not here | 01:15 |
| Dredd | I dunno tbh, half of people in the UK have been AZ jabbed | 01:16 |
| Dredd | So it may still have been in active use for first jabs (especially given it's long shelf life in a normal fridge?) | 01:17 |
| Dredd | AZ still seem to be selling it too | 01:17 |
| Dredd | To someone | 01:17 |
| Dredd | Oh so they meant mutagenic to themselves? | 01:18 |
| Dredd | Unless you're doing something very questionable with your hand sanitizers it should be safe enough | 01:18 |
| Dredd | I believe I read a paper on someone literally washing their whole body (bathing in it basically) with IPA and they got poisoning from absorbing too much of it over time | 01:19 |
| Dredd | But they did not get cancer and recovered soon after | 01:19 |
| de-facto | IPA is nasty | 01:19 |
| minthos | "Ethanol is mutagenic via its first metabolite, acetaldehyde." first google result. it's mutagenic inside the human body, not to viruses on our hands | 01:20 |
| LjL | minthos, Dredd: they meant mutagenic to the human body, presumably. | 01:21 |
| LjL | de-facto, how nasty? i mean if you don't wash yourself in it... | 01:21 |
| minthos | I wouldn't presume that but ok. the biggest concern is that it dries out the skin. | 01:21 |
| LjL | well why would you presume the other way around? if anything neither of us should presume anything. | 01:22 |
| minthos | I'm just saying it's not a concern | 01:22 |
| LjL | *my* presuming was based on the fact that right next to alcohol being mutagenic, they said the best way to remove the virus was something else. | 01:23 |
| LjL | i agree it's not a concern | 01:23 |
| LjL | but that's separate from what it is they've said :P | 01:23 |
| Dredd | minthos: Also soaps contain aldehydes too 😀 | 01:23 |
| Dredd | de-facto: IPA is fine if in the same concentration it should be for a hand sanitiser | 01:24 |
| Dredd | And in higher concentrations it evaporates basically instantly | 01:24 |
| Dredd | So not sure what you mean unless drinking it 😀 ? | 01:24 |
| LjL | Dredd, the concentration that should be in a hand sanitizer is 70% though so uh pretty close to 100% in my book of %ages? | 01:25 |
| * LjL spits out the alcohol he's drinking | 01:25 | |
| LjL | you could have told me sooner | 01:25 |
| Dredd | lol | 01:26 |
| Dredd | It's doubly funny since IPA is a type of beer 😉 | 01:26 |
| * de-facto slaps LjL | 01:26 | |
| LjL | oh see! | 01:27 |
| * Dredd slaps Brainstorm | 01:27 | |
| Brainstorm | Dredd: Do as you wish! | 01:27 |
| LjL | alcohol hurt me | 01:27 |
| * LjL points | 01:27 | |
| LjL | %ev slap | 01:27 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: The adverb slap (meaning bang, slap, slapdash) is 0% positive, 0% negative - The verb slap (meaning slap, strike) is 0% positive, 0% negative - The noun slap is 0% positive, 0% negative | 01:27 |
| LjL | very neutral | 01:27 |
| * Dredd retires with Brainstorm to a private room | 01:27 | |
| * Brainstorm starts to disillusion Dredd with some cleanable frolicsomeness | 01:27 | |
| LjL | cleanable fomiteness | 01:27 |
| Dredd | <xx> "Peter: if you read further..." <- All the same, you can claim it is for your curiosity but you are still bringing it up again with the same person who has expressed they are happy with guest47 regardless | 01:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Australia: +2764 cases (now 235530), +4 deaths (now 2117) since 18 hours ago — Panama: +382 cases (now 481438), +3 deaths (now 7391), +9535 tests (now 4.3 million) since 23 hours ago — Burkina Faso: +338 cases (now 16672), +6 deaths (now 296) since 7 days ago — Malawi: +235 cases (now 62615), +2 deaths (now 2310), +1948 tests (now 453249) since a day ago | 01:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Copy of Will we always need Covid-19 boosters? Experts have theories: STAT asked nine experts whether they think we face a future of endless Covid boosting. In the main, their answers were more reassuring than we expected. → https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/14/will-we-always-need-covid-19-boosters-experts-have-theories-2/ | 01:51 |
| sdfgsdfg | new horizons "Alcohol is mutagenic, cancerogenic and teratogenic" - In addition, different indirect pathways may lead to mutations by alcohol. 🍺 | 01:51 |
| LjL | probably-important subthread: https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rg97dv/paper_claiming_a_lack_of_evidence_covid19/hoim2tr/ | 01:53 |
| minthos | people avoiding people reduces spread of viruses, who'd a thunk? | 01:54 |
| sdfgsdfg | one of the comments mention that it's proved that suicides also go down with lockdowns | 01:57 |
| LjL | actually the rest of the thread is interesting too, and it's really not that simple | 01:59 |
| LjL | (re: minthos) | 01:59 |
| LjL | i mean, it kinda is that simple, to a simplistic degree | 01:59 |
| LjL | but it's mostly not the degree being discussed in the thread and, hopefully, in the most influential papers :P | 01:59 |
| LjL | i.e. "things have an effect": yes, pretty true. but which things and which effect, and is it to a meaningful degree, and is it worth it, and does it cause side effects - these are important questions | 02:00 |
| minthos | sure, it's more complicated and relates to psychology, sociology, economics and so on but at the very basic level if we can stop interacting for a few months the virus will have nowhere to spread | 02:01 |
| minthos | the problem is our inability to do that | 02:01 |
| LjL | damn, i just wanted to reply to one claim but the i remembered i'm banned | 02:01 |
| LjL | but in particular, i find this claim https://np.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rg97dv/paper_claiming_a_lack_of_evidence_covid19/hokdspj/?context=3 factually wrong unless you're basically lawyering | 02:02 |
| LjL | and i'm disappointed one person purportedly behind the impetus to this retraction said something this stupid | 02:02 |
| LjL | i am in Italy, and i damned well know i couldn't technically have a walk with friends but could meet them indoors pretty much unimpeded, and that it would have taken unconstitutional methods to ensure i did otherwise | 02:03 |
| minthos | if I ever get my own country I will have a constitution that specifies that 24/7 curfews may be imposed as a precautionary measure when potentially dangerous infections are suspected | 02:08 |
| LjL | i hope you also have an advanced strategy to make people not starve etc during such | 02:09 |
| minthos | of course | 02:09 |
| minthos | food delivery via drones, universal basic income | 02:09 |
| LjL | fair enough | 02:10 |
| tyler0010[m] | Don't forget the robocops and terminators to keep people in their homes. What could go wrong? | 02:15 |
| minthos | they could be hacked, so I will need some humans in power armor as well | 02:16 |
| LjL | tyler0010[m], to be fair, a lot is going wrong even in our current implementation of society | 02:17 |
| LjL | but i'm sure we could make it go wronger if we tried | 02:17 |
| sdfgsdfg | https://media.springernature.com/full/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs12874-021-01304-y/MediaObjects/12874_2021_1304_Fig1_HTML.png | 02:17 |
| sdfgsdfg | the same authors also published this nice article on open paper reviews etc https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12874-021-01304-y | 02:18 |
| sdfgsdfg | makes sense | 02:18 |
| sdfgsdfg | .title | 02:18 |
| Brainstorm | sdfgsdfg: From bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com: Open science saves lives: lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic | BMC Medical Research Methodology | Full Text | 02:18 |
| Dredd | minthos: What about augmented humans? Either mechanically or with nanites? | 02:19 |
| sdfgsdfg | unreported conflicts of interest sounds like politics. I always had a feeling this would be true | 02:19 |
| minthos | sure, when technology allows | 02:20 |
| minthos | also genetic modifications | 02:20 |
| * Dredd nods | 02:20 | |
| minthos | and neural laces | 02:20 |
| Dredd | I shall begin the work | 02:20 |
| minthos | good, keep me posted | 02:20 |
| LjL | sdfgsdfg, first link gives me a 404 | 02:20 |
| * Dredd goes to replay Deus Ex: Human Revolution for inspiration | 02:20 | |
| sdfgsdfg | LjL hmm it was this figure from the page --> https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12874-021-01304-y/figures/1 | 02:21 |
| Dredd | That's honestly my favourite game of all time | 02:21 |
| Dredd | And I kind of want robot legs | 02:21 |
| minthos | I haven't played it but quake 4 had a pretty cool cyborg enhancement scene, I also like ghost in the shell, appleseed, stellaris and the culture | 02:22 |
| sdfgsdfg | road rash was better | 02:22 |
| Dredd | minthos: Sounds like you'd enjoy it | 02:23 |
| Dredd | It features a conspiracy theorist radio host which is such a good capture of Alex Jones lol | 02:23 |
| LjL | sdfgsdfg, what would you say is their conflict of interest in this matter? | 02:25 |
| minthos | I liked the radio in fallout 4 | 02:25 |
| sdfgsdfg | no idea for this paper, but in general I think there might be a risk | 02:27 |
| sdfgsdfg | LjL "On Vioxx, Topol wrote: "Sadly, it is clear that Merck's commercial interest exceeded its concern about the drug's toxicity" (2). More and more concerns are raised by scholars and major journal editors about the type and the quality of published evidence, often biased towards efficacy of new products. The industry, funding over 80% of trials, sets up a research agenda guided more by marketing than by clinical considerations. Smart statistical | 02:27 |
| sdfgsdfg | and epidemiological tactics help obtain the desired results. Budget for marketing is by far greater than for research." | 02:27 |
| sdfgsdfg | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18982834/ | 02:27 |
| sdfgsdfg | .title | 02:27 |
| Brainstorm | sdfgsdfg: From pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: Big pharma and health care: unsolvable conflict of interests between private enterprise and public health - PubMed | 02:27 |
| Dredd | What happened to Michael Yeadon? Do they have some sort of schizophrenia type of disorder? | 02:29 |
| sdfgsdfg | he's an ex-pfizer scientist who went nuts | 02:30 |
| minthos | can't blame him | 02:30 |
| Dredd | Yeah I mean like do you think he is diagnostically mentally ill? | 02:31 |
| Dredd | Same deal with a few other people like the guy who used to work on lipid nano-particle related stuff | 02:31 |
| LjL | sdfgsdfg, i've definitely seen at least one researcher vocally complaining that Merck's drug may be a reckless experiment | 02:32 |
| LjL | sdfgsdfg, anyway i was nudging in the general direction of a team of researcher writing a paper about the importance of the process of reviewing and potentially rejecting papers, and then doing it prominently with a COVID paper :P | 02:32 |
| LjL | Dredd, Malone? or is there a third person i should add to my list of people who have been persecuted by pharma for speaking the truth, i mean, nutters | 02:33 |
| LjL | fourth* | 02:33 |
| Dredd | LjL: yes that guy | 02:34 |
| LjL | Dredd, some anti-vax shouter on TV today actually called him "the inventor of mRNA vaccines" without actually being corrected by anyone else in the study. instead everyone was just shouting. top-notch TV debates | 02:35 |
| LjL | in the studio* | 02:35 |
| LjL | (or just "the inventor of mRNA", i don't even know) | 02:36 |
| Dredd | Oh god, computer science people are amazing at misusing terms in ways that insult or diminish the experience or suffering of others: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schizophrenia_(object-oriented_programming) | 02:36 |
| Dredd | LjL: I've seen "inventor of RNA" before | 02:37 |
| minthos | I don't think it insults or diminshes anything, but it does pollute google results | 02:38 |
| Dredd | With all due respect, it's a very particular medical term being misused and I'm glad it isn't popular | 02:38 |
| minthos | it's also the closest existing term for a particular phenomenon that didn't exist before and therefore has no proper name | 02:39 |
| * Dredd is frequently reminded of the suffering he deals with due to his OCD when people refer to their enjoyment, preference or some small frustration they have related to order 🤦♂️ | 02:39 | |
| LjL | you mean not nearly as popular as the actual use of the term schizophrenia to mean multiple personality disorder, or even paranoid-type-sort-of psychiatric disorder in general? | 02:39 |
| LjL | because that's a lot more popular than the very niche computer science use | 02:39 |
| Dredd | LjL: It is infact mistaking it for DID from what I understand too yeah | 02:39 |
| LjL | well, i'm saying the mistaking is pretty popular. the computer science term isn't. | 02:40 |
| minthos | I see your point with the OCD misuse, that has really gotten out of hand | 02:40 |
| Telvana | Having OCD myself I don't see how that would bother someone | 02:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Anguilla: +69 cases (now 1592) since 3 days ago — Canada: +4222 cases (now 1.9 million) since 22 hours ago | 02:40 |
| Dredd | Telvana: When you are literally losing your mind it can be a little frustrating for someone to misuse what you're going through | 02:41 |
| Dredd | And it means people think they understand it but really don't | 02:41 |
| Dredd | and they will tell you that | 02:41 |
| Telvana | What does that really matter? It's just their opinion. | 02:41 |
| Dredd | Or argue that their satisfaction for having alphabetical books on their shelf that look all pretty | 02:42 |
| * LjL takes note: never say "gosh, i'm dying" (of heat, laughter or something) in case he's ever around someone with a terminal disease | 02:42 | |
| Dredd | Is the same as your thing | 02:42 |
| Telvana | Not sure why it should bother someone on a personal level, it's not like their opinion changes your life in any ways. | 02:42 |
| Dredd | Lol, there isn't a "should". It just does bother some people and that's all that matters. There's no right or wrong of it but in general I wish people were more educated | 02:42 |
| Dredd | I'm not particularly bothered by it myself but I know others who are | 02:43 |
| Dredd | I try and accept that people do that and so my small part to educate where possible | 02:43 |
| Dredd | As I am here | 02:43 |
| minthos | if the washed-out usage overshadows the original term it can be hard to be specific | 02:43 |
| Dredd | Telvana: And similarly I'm not sure how or why you think my opinions, or some others, is wrong or that yours is relevant | 02:44 |
| Dredd | We perhaps suffer some similar things and can find common ground there but it doesn't mean everything about us or others is gonna be the same | 02:44 |
| LjL | the thing is don't feel i've been educated on what OCD is, or what schizophrenia is... only that i shouldn't use them lightly, or at all unless i'm a psychiatrist, or something like that | 02:45 |
| Telvana | I never said mine was relevant, did I? I simply said I wasn't sure why it should matter to someone. | 02:46 |
| Dredd | Sorry to get into it a bit but it urks me a little that when people bring up a type of suffering that people sometimes feel the need to diminish it? | 02:46 |
| minthos | I'm actually starting to get bothered by commercial products/companies choosing single words as names, you google a word and all the results are for some TV show or game or whatever, not what you're looking for | 02:46 |
| Dredd | I kind of also expect someone with mental health experience themselves to be more aware of that and have a little more insight into the sensitivity of others | 02:46 |
| Telvana | I simply don't care what others think, it's not my responsibility | 02:47 |
| Dredd | Sure, so why do you care what I think? | 02:47 |
| Telvana | if I cared what others think I wouldn't work for the government | 02:47 |
| Telvana | Dredd: again, you're assuming I care what you think, and again, I don't - I made a passive comment, and you decided that it was about you | 02:48 |
| Dredd | ............. | 02:48 |
| Dredd | There's no such thing as a passive comment | 02:48 |
| minthos | passive aggressive maybe :p | 02:48 |
| Dredd | Especially if you don't just respond "I didn't mean much by it" or some such | 02:48 |
| Dredd | I care about what you think | 02:48 |
| Dredd | That's why I am conversing | 02:48 |
| lastshell | Telvana you work for the goverment ? | 02:48 |
| Dredd | I'm not going to pretend otherwise 😀 | 02:48 |
| Dredd | And also others in this channel 😉 | 02:48 |
| lastshell | the goverment works ? | 02:49 |
| Dredd | I have literally nearly lost my mind due to OCD and it has caused me so much suffering (and still does though thankfully I'm in a lot better place than before!) and many still are not so lucky and I wish they could be understood a little more | 02:49 |
| Telvana | Dredd: I care ABOUT the people in this channel, I just don't care what they think, that's all | 02:49 |
| Telvana | And it's not too hard to denote a line there, at least, for me | 02:49 |
| Dredd | Telvana: I don't think this is going anywhere productive so I'm gonna drop it now 🙂 | 02:50 |
| Telvana | Dredd: And I am truly sorry to hear that, OCD is cruel and it's not a joke, but me personally if I worried about everything everyone has said about me I'd lose my mind more | 02:50 |
| lastshell | first case of omicron detect on my state | 02:50 |
| Dredd | Sure, I totally agree | 02:50 |
| Telvana | It's likely all over the USA already, sadly, lastshell | 02:50 |
| lastshell | yes, that is my fear | 02:51 |
| Dredd | Unfortunately I don't think people really choose what worries / triggers them. if they did then OCD wouldn't be a thing and we'd just choose not to have it ☹️ | 02:51 |
| * Dredd had major issues with a friend getting angry at him for having OCD "I don't understand! Just don't do that! It's stupid! Just don't worry!" | 02:51 | |
| Dredd | Thankfully we are both in a better place at dealing with that sort of stuff these days and learnt a lot from working through it | 02:52 |
| * Dredd should shutup before the LjL bans me 😛 | 02:52 | |
| Telvana | lol | 02:52 |
| Dredd | lastshell: how is omicron across the US in general? | 02:52 |
| Telvana | I'd hope not, it's just friendly discourse | 02:52 |
| Dredd | Over here in the UK it's already been in my city for a while | 02:53 |
| LjL | if this was friendly, i'm peter pan | 02:53 |
| LjL | wait... | 02:53 |
| Dredd | And it's not a big city | 02:53 |
| Dredd | 😧 | 02:53 |
| Telvana | LjL: hello, Peter :) | 02:53 |
| lastshell | DreedUSA has 34 states with confirmed omicron cases | 02:53 |
| Dredd | LjL: I thought you were Tinkerbell? | 02:53 |
| * LjL flies away | 02:53 | |
| * Telvana yeets LjL | 02:53 | |
| Dredd | lol | 02:54 |
| Telvana | wee! | 02:54 |
| LjL | :[ | 02:54 |
| lastshell | Dreed but I thinkwe have omicron in all states already | 02:54 |
| Telvana | hehe | 02:54 |
| Telvana | Last I heard it was 20 states | 02:55 |
| * Dredd should have added that he knows people with and at risk of developing schizophrenia so it's a more personal and less academic thing for me too | 02:55 | |
| Telvana | It's likely higher and it's just not detected yet | 02:55 |
| LjL | i think 33 states | 02:55 |
| LjL | something i linked | 02:55 |
| Telvana | ah, okay | 02:55 |
| Telvana | I've been on vacation since Dec 4th so I haven't been paying attention much | 02:55 |
| LjL | Health officials sounded the alarm Tuesday over the fast spread of the omicron coronavirus, which has now been detected in 77 countries worldwide and 33 states in the US—and is expanding quickly. https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/12/omicron-now-13-of-cases-in-ny-and-nj-health-officials-brace-for-sharp-rise/ | 02:55 |
| LjL | Telvana, exponential things grow quickly ;( | 02:55 |
| Telvana | yes, sadly | 02:55 |
| Dredd | Seems likely it's everywhere over there now 😧 | 02:56 |
| Telvana | Which is why I imagine it's likely in all 50 by now | 02:56 |
| Telvana | We move around too much for that to not be the case | 02:56 |
| Dredd | Did anyone else see some one publish a statement from South Africa that the UK is overresponding | 02:56 |
| LjL | almost certainly yeah | 02:56 |
| Telvana | Well, maybe not Alaska/Hawaii | 02:56 |
| Dredd | I mean.... I think not according to our data (which is better than theirs) | 02:56 |
| lastshell | LJL we got our fist case of omicron in NV | 02:56 |
| lastshell | so now 34 | 02:56 |
| Dredd | is this more politicking to try and make SA look less like a plague ship? | 02:56 |
| LjL | Dredd, i haven't, unless it's the type of thing where they complained about flights from/to them being halted | 02:56 |
| Dredd | They specifcally seemed to be talking about the UK's current response to Omicron domestically | 02:57 |
| Dredd | I'll try to dig it up | 02:57 |
| lastshell | also Dredd and LjL omicron makes up 3% of all US covid cases | 02:58 |
| lastshell | https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/14/omicron-now-makes-up-almost-3percent-of-us-covid-cases-according-to-the-cdc.html | 02:58 |
| lastshell | so is just matter of time to spike | 02:58 |
| Telvana | I was listening to someone rambling earlier and he said something that kind of intrigued me - what if there was a way to do "loss of function" on COVID | 02:58 |
| Dredd | https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10306211/amp/DR-ANGELIQUE-COETZEE-alerted-wider-world-Omicron-believe-Britain-overreacting.html | 02:58 |
| Telvana | Which opens up a wormhole in my head of things that could really go wrong with that idea | 02:58 |
| Dredd | LjL: ^ | 02:58 |
| Dredd | Apologies it's the Daily Fail | 02:59 |
| lastshell | at least is not infowars :P | 02:59 |
| Telvana | haha | 02:59 |
| Dredd | https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10306211/DR-ANGELIQUE-COETZEE-alerted-wider-world-Omicron-believe-Britain-overreacting.html | 02:59 |
| Dredd | Non AMP link since it doesn't work right on desktop | 02:59 |
| Dredd | Telvana: Yeah, like engineering a more virulent but less dangerous variant? | 03:00 |
| Telvana | yes | 03:00 |
| Dredd | I was thinking about that and also being scared about it too | 03:00 |
| Telvana | choke out the dominant strain | 03:00 |
| Telvana | the issue is, I see that going quite wrong due to the very nature of a coronavirus | 03:01 |
| ublx | go big or go home | 03:01 |
| ublx | lets engineer a bacteria that eats coronaviruses | 03:01 |
| Dredd | Problem is I suppose if it's harm is directly driven by it's virulence (like de-facto has suggested before) then it might not be possible | 03:01 |
| Telvana | Who's to say we don't release something like that and it decides to just start killing people after it mutates, or it makes people grow a third arm | 03:01 |
| Telvana | :p | 03:01 |
| Dredd | I suppose we could strap artificial covid anti-bodies to the outside of the virus to grab other ones | 03:02 |
| Telvana | we should already know messing with nature is a bad idea | 03:02 |
| LjL | Dredd, is that the doctor who somehow created the myth "it's mild"? ;( | 03:02 |
| Dredd | Or just directly modify covid to be another part of our immune system 😛 | 03:02 |
| Dredd | coviception | 03:02 |
| Dredd | LjL: I think so | 03:02 |
| Telvana | ublx: that would be a neat idea | 03:02 |
| Telvana | Sadly, the side effects would likely be bad | 03:02 |
| Telvana | "Hey, it kills COVID, but it gives you C-Diff" | 03:03 |
| LjL | so uhm let me check why my de-AMPing bot isn't working anyway, last time i only remarked that it wasn't, but didn't actually try to figure it out | 03:03 |
| Dredd | It's fine, we will just create a super-super-covid to kill the bacteria.... | 03:03 |
| Dredd | LjL: possibly because the daily mail seem to not be implementing it properly | 03:03 |
| Dredd | lol | 03:03 |
| Telvana | I remember that was basically the premise of what happened when they tried to wipe out mosquitos with a virus | 03:03 |
| LjL | Dredd, most viruses do affect bacteria! | 03:03 |
| Telvana | something went horribly wrong, I can't remember the whole story though | 03:04 |
| LjL | Dredd, well, it not being proper is kind of the whole point why i made the bot thing :P | 03:04 |
| Telvana | or maybe it was a bacteria, it was supposed to make them sterile, but it failed horribly | 03:04 |
| LjL | uhm | 03:04 |
| LjL | i've heard about mosquitoes that were meant to make other mosquitoes infertile | 03:04 |
| LjL | not sure if that was by means of infecting them with bacteria first | 03:04 |
| LjL | but, i didn't hear that it failed horribly | 03:04 |
| Dredd | Telvana: ah so that explains the six foot tallk mosquitos I have around here wreaking havoc! | 03:04 |
| Telvana | https://www.cdc.gov/zika/pdfs/bti_fact_sheet.pdf | 03:05 |
| Dredd | There's so much wrong with this daily mail article | 03:06 |
| Telvana | haha | 03:06 |
| Dredd | 1. SA is in summer and UK is in winter | 03:06 |
| Telvana | They don't call it the daily fail for nothing, you know | 03:06 |
| minthos | ZA | 03:06 |
| Dredd | 2. You are biased | 03:06 |
| minthos | SA is saudi arabia | 03:06 |
| Dredd | If I could just interject for a minute, what you're referring to as SA is actually South Africa, or as I have taken to calling it: the bit at the bottom of Africa... | 03:08 |
| LjL | Dredd, well, nice article. i couldn't disagree more. | 03:08 |
| Dredd | Getting back to my critique of the author | 03:08 |
| Dredd | ... | 03:08 |
| * LjL chuckles | 03:08 | |
| minthos | I will stallman all day about ZA vs SA | 03:09 |
| Dredd | 3. You are saying that we should do what your data says for your country but in our country where out data says very different things | 03:09 |
| Dredd | 4. Our data is widely accepted as better | 03:09 |
| Dredd | 5. Our vaccination program is widely accepted as one of the best, which makes it all the more concerning that we see the trends we do | 03:09 |
| Dredd | 6. Fuck off | 03:10 |
| LjL | Telvana, eh but what is the horrible thing about it? | 03:10 |
| LjL | Dredd, those aren't possibly your best arguments! | 03:10 |
| Dredd | minthos: thanks for reminding me what the country code is but I wasn't trying to use it 😅. I was just trying to abbreviate South Africa because I cba to type it | 03:10 |
| LjL | my arguments are mostly quote-based because they always are | 03:11 |
| LjL | so let me spam my way through the article | 03:11 |
| Dredd | ha ha | 03:11 |
| minthos | there is a country code, there is no reason to use another abbreviation except ignorance, which I'm on a mission to cure. you're welcome. | 03:11 |
| LjL | "And I should know — because I am the doctor who first raised the alarm about Omicron back in November." ← hence you're automatically biased. okay, that was your argument too! but wait! | 03:11 |
| Dredd | I just find it very odd to say "Hey, you're seeing different things but, you know, you're wrong! | 03:11 |
| LjL | "I said then that we didn't know anywhere near enough about Omicron to make such judgments, or impose such policies. [masks, etc]" ← well, if we KEEP doing things when it's too LATE, instead of following the cautionary principle of assuming the worst while hoping for the best... i'd say it's a mildly (!) nice change we're doing it a bit differently this time | 03:12 |
| minthos | z and s are very close on the keyboard too, so there's no good reason to prefer pressing the wrong key | 03:13 |
| LjL | "I have been working with Omicron patients throughout that time, and I think it's safe to say that I know more than most about the effects it can have on human beings." ← i think that the fact you say you *must* know more than anyone because of *anecdotes, not data* is extremely concerning | 03:13 |
| Dredd | minthos: I would argue a lot of people might not know ZA (I do because of a job I worked at before but it isn't common knowledge here in the UK) and it was contextually fairly obvious I used SA to mean South Africa. Also seen others here do it 😛 | 03:13 |
| minthos | time for them to learn then | 03:13 |
| Dredd | Plus you know what I meant, and IMO as long as meaning is exchanged it's a valid exchange of info which is what language is really about | 03:13 |
| LjL | minthos, sorry, i already did know, and yet i used SA anyway | 03:13 |
| LjL | zue me | 03:13 |
| LjL | "As a general practitioner for more than 33 years, I am one of the foot soldiers who sees patients first. We clinicians deal day-to-day with real people, not statistical projections" ← err, that's obviously your problem with looking at country-wide statistics...? | 03:14 |
| LjL | "Don't just take my word for it. I have seen quite a few Omicron patients who have previously had the Delta variant and they will tell you that ..." ← don't take my word for it. take some people's word for it, through my word for it. | 03:14 |
| minthos | no it's fine, being a pain in the ass on irc is a response of appropriate magnitude considering the importance of the issue, though obviously insufficient to solve it :) | 03:15 |
| LjL | "... while no one ever wants to get Covid, they feel almost lucky that it was only Omicron they had the second time around." ← oh my, *second time*, you say! why would that be? couldn't they just get Delta a second time instead? | 03:15 |
| Dredd | LjL: Yeah I agree here too. Also ties into the data quality thing that is showing in the UK some concerning signals on multiple axes. Plus all the great analysis of immune escape etc. | 03:15 |
| LjL | minthos, if you were me, you'd make a bot that corrects it every time | 03:15 |
| LjL | but if i were me, i would ban it | 03:15 |
| minthos | it's good I'm not you then | 03:15 |
| LjL | minthos, that's probably good because it means we don't have sch... i mean MPD | 03:16 |
| Dredd | minthos: I touch type so SA is slightly easier and faster to type than ZA since ZA are on the same finger | 03:16 |
| Telvana | My main issue in my day-to-day job is lagging data and conflicting experts | 03:16 |
| Dredd | 😀 | 03:16 |
| Telvana | This whole pandemic has been the most confusing thing I've ever dealt with | 03:16 |
| LjL | " | 03:16 |
| LjL | 'I alerted the wider world to Omicron - and I believe Britain is overreacting': Doctor Angelique Coetzee, the South African GP who knows more about its effects than anyone, calls for calm despite variant cases spiking 50 per cent in 24 hours | 03:16 |
| LjL | By Dr Angelique Coetzee For The Daily Mail | 03:16 |
| LjL | Published: 22:02 GMT, 13 December 2021 | Updated: 13:04 GMT, 14 December 2021 | 03:16 |
| LjL | 03:16 | |
| LjL | i do apologize. how bad was it? :x | 03:17 |
| Telvana | "spiking 50" - that's a health admins wet dream | 03:17 |
| Telvana | LjL: 5 lines | 03:17 |
| LjL-Matrix | Oh, could've been worse | 03:17 |
| Telvana | nbd | 03:17 |
| Dredd | LjL: Lol "The insignificant number of people I see to form a statistically valid opinion have shown... but trust me, I do science!" | 03:17 |
| LjL-Matrix | I think I'll stop my critique here due to mispaste concerns :P | 03:17 |
| Telvana | that's the rub | 03:17 |
| LjL-Matrix | yes you can continue in my stead thanks | 03:18 |
| Telvana | haha | 03:18 |
| Telvana | And let's be realistic here about Omicron, even at this point, we've got a relatively small sample size still | 03:18 |
| Dredd | LjL: Lol, they are so glad that it's only the worst version they got? *phew* | 03:18 |
| Telvana | And the samples I'm seeing aren't saying "it's mild" | 03:18 |
| minthos | doubling every 40 hours - 30% lower rate of hospitalization - ZA already killed off most of their vulnerable population - maybe he's saying to stay calm as revenge for the travel apartheid | 03:19 |
| Telvana | minthos: either that or he's trying to keep people from panicking again | 03:19 |
| LjL | Dredd, by the way, on IRC we aren't actually seeing the things you're quoting ;( just your comments | 03:19 |
| minthos | like the WHO by saying it's not airborne? | 03:19 |
| Telvana | yeah, that was quite the mistake | 03:20 |
| Telvana | Same with the CDC back stepping on masks | 03:20 |
| Telvana | They screwed the pooch with that one | 03:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The country with the highest cases/capita in the world now is Denmark, with 77% of its population fully vaccinated, 23% boosted, soon to be Omicron dominant.(The US is 61% vaccinated, 15% boosted, avg ~120,000 cases per day, w/ >66,000 hospitalizations) pic.twitter.com/RG2MVk8tfb → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1470941157190356992 | 03:21 |
| Dredd | LjL: woops re:quotes. The bridge really should consider number of intermediate messages as well as just timestamps! | 03:22 |
| LjL | Dredd, and also maybe whether the thing you're quoting is anyone's message at all ;( | 03:22 |
| lastshell | https://nypost.com/2021/12/14/at-least-89-killed-by-mystery-disease-as-who-deploys-taskforce-amid-fears-of-outbreak/amp/ | 03:23 |
| Dredd | LjL: I have summarily complained in the relevant matrix room 😛 | 03:25 |
| Dredd | lastshell: Super mega covid omicron delta rewards card plus variant? | 03:26 |
| LjL | Dredd, i was a bit confused though, because you quoted something i quoted that contained that doctor's quote, i thought you were quoting the doctor directly, and the bridge was just killing your quotes regardless of them not being actual messages. but they were | 03:28 |
| LjL | anyway i've forgotten what else i was even going to nitpick on in the article | 03:28 |
| LjL | but in summary, that doctor has a clear agenda, and so does the daily mail | 03:28 |
| Dredd | Yeah | 03:28 |
| * LjL tries to be careful | 03:28 | |
| * Dredd uploaded an image: (1451KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/shortestpath.dev/agBneklbvNBXqhNyIXSzxNgh/image.png > | 03:29 | |
| Dredd | Guy from lastshell's link ^ | 03:29 |
| LjL | "A hard lockdown would slow the process of Omicron making its way through the population and allowing people to develop the vital antibodies which will move your population towards 'herd immunity'." ← oh, herd immunity, where did i hear that before! BUT WAIT... didn't you say reinfections? with Omicron? on people who had Delta? so uhm... | 03:29 |
| Dredd | If the place is so flooded and messed up, why does he have a very expensive looking watch? | 03:29 |
| LjL | "The next variant that comes along might be slower spreading but more severe, and so we will need all the help we can get from such natural immunity." ← except if the next variant is as evasive as this one, and the "evolution computer" is fed by a SHITTON of cases, it will just re-infect everyone again? | 03:29 |
| minthos | yep | 03:30 |
| Dredd | Yeah, the virus will evolve to counter whatever we do | 03:30 |
| Dredd | that's how evolution works | 03:30 |
| Dredd | It's not like it's got a static strategy and we can outsmart it | 03:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for South Korea: +7843 cases (now 536495), +69 deaths (now 4456) since 23 hours ago — Suriname: +45 cases (now 51289), +1 deaths (now 1179), +393 tests (now 164358) since 22 hours ago | 03:30 |
| LjL | i'm not sure i can judge how expensive a watch is from a distance, my dad has a pretty fancy-looking €30 watch from amazon :P | 03:31 |
| Dredd | Also, what the UK is doing now is about getting the scientifically proven level of immunity we need into the herd | 03:31 |
| Dredd | And we already have herd immunity going on which is why omicron out competes delta | 03:31 |
| minthos | evolution works on numbers. larger numbers = more evolution = more risk of scary shit evolving | 03:31 |
| LjL | minthos, yes, that, which is i think *the* ultimate thing that makes Omicron Ominous | 03:32 |
| LjL | more infections? sure, scary. more deaths? sadness. but more viruses, and worse ones? yikes for real! | 03:32 |
| LjL | anyway, this doctor has the agenda "it's mild", "herd immunity", "it's actually GOOD that we have this" | 03:39 |
| LjL | almost makes me think... | 03:39 |
| * LjL just coughs in a strange way | 03:39 | |
| LjL | you know, "That is because Omicron could potentially be of great help to us" | 03:39 |
| LjL | that is just a sentence that i wouldn't dream of seeing from any scientist with a shred of sense of responsibility | 03:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID drops slightly, still ‘significant protection’-WHO → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/vaccine-effectiveness-against-severe-covid-drops-slightly-still-significant-protection-who-7673545/ | 03:41 |
| LjL | "it's slightly not milder" | 03:41 |
| minthos | I think it could be of great help to us by making people finally wake up and take the virus more seriously, by inflicting way more damage | 03:41 |
| minthos | in a way I think this pandemic has been good for us by highlighting a bunch of issues we still need to work on in society | 03:42 |
| LjL | minthos, i don't think anyone's going to work on them | 03:42 |
| Dredd | > Even one death is one too many. But will there be many more? Our experience in South Africa suggests not. | 03:42 |
| Dredd | Sadly, I don't think this is going to age well ☹️ | 03:42 |
| minthos | we're finally changing the orthodoxy that viruses aren't airborne | 03:42 |
| LjL | last time i brought up that, whether or not it directly came from there, there should probably be a public discourse on virology labs, what they do, and how safely they do it... i was just told it's never gonna happen | 03:42 |
| minthos | people are crafting corsi-rosenthal boxes and custom masks/ventilators etc | 03:43 |
| Dredd | LjL: I also do not think society will work on those issues 😛 | 03:43 |
| Dredd | Call me a pessimist 😉 | 03:43 |
| minthos | we also got a big trial run of mRNA vaccine technology | 03:43 |
| LjL | Dredd, you may not think it will, but still argue for it to. but xx seemed kinda defeatist on the matter in a way that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy | 03:44 |
| LjL | if you shut down anyone who suggests talking about some matters with the argument "you'll never succeed in getting us to talk about such matters"... well, what can i say, yeah, that works. | 03:44 |
| Dredd | > Admittedly, our laboratories do not carry out genetic sequencing for every death, so we do not know how many Covid-related deaths can be attributed to Omicron and how many to other variants. | 03:45 |
| Dredd | loool | 03:45 |
| Dredd | This doctor seems fairly bad at logical thinking and I'm glad they aren't my doctor! | 03:46 |
| LjL | Dredd, to be fair, the fact only one death has been counted so far makes me, uhm, mildly hopefully that it might indeed be somewhat mild | 03:47 |
| LjL | but "hopeful this may help it make it less of a tragedy" shouldn't be confused with "hopeful this is actually a good thing we have omicron" | 03:47 |
| Dredd | I hope so too but honestly I had set myself the expecation "based on math" that we will start to see UK deaths on december 16th | 03:47 |
| Dredd | So what happens in the rest of december could be worse | 03:48 |
| LjL | let me just paste this again for a moment, i need to test the bot real quick | 03:48 |
| LjL | https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10306211/amp/DR-ANGELIQUE-COETZEE-alerted-wider-world-Omicron-believe-Britain-overreacting.html | 03:48 |
| Dredd | At this stage I have no data to actually suggest it's milder though, just wishful thinking | 03:48 |
| LjL | well that was a pretty useless test | 03:49 |
| * Dredd clubs Brainstorm with a large baguette | 03:49 | |
| * Brainstorm starts to lust after Dredd with some simple irrepressibility | 03:49 | |
| LjL | Dredd, but what about deaths in South Africa? | 03:49 |
| Dredd | loool | 03:49 |
| LjL | "shouldn't" they really be more by now? | 03:49 |
| Dredd | LjL: a lack of increases in deaths doesn't make it milder, just not worse than delta? | 03:49 |
| Dredd | Plus everything is always better in summer | 03:50 |
| Dredd | they don't sample well | 03:50 |
| LjL | Dredd, my theory at this point is that the random sentiment analysis database that i fed Brainstorm with, which was generated by having a website ask people whether they thought about a given word positively or negatively, was simply hammered by people going after slightly sexual words :P | 03:50 |
| Dredd | Their population is badly vaccinated so their baseline death level is already higher than ours (meaning they are currently not relying on the buffer of vaccines) | 03:50 |
| LjL | Dredd, well, a lack of increases in deaths *while* there is a sharp increase in cases, though | 03:50 |
| LjL | at least i think there is! | 03:51 |
| LjL | %cases south africa | 03:51 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: South Africa has had 3.2 million confirmed cases (5.5% of all people) and 90172 deaths (2.8% of cases; 1 in 652 people) as of 6 hours ago. 20.4 million tests were done (15.7% positive). 18.5 million were vaccinated (31.4%). +23857 cases, +24 deaths, +68437 tests since a day ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Africa&legacy=no | 03:51 |
| Dredd | I'm putting it down to bad sampling and sequencing tbh | 03:51 |
| Dredd | along with the weather | 03:51 |
| Dredd | But let's see | 03:51 |
| LjL | i'm not even sure yet i "believe" in seasonality so :P | 03:51 |
| LjL | but anyway, if you think we'll start seeing UK deaths tomorrow, then that's not a very long time to wait | 03:52 |
| Dredd | The next two weeks here in the UK should give a signal either way since we sequence all deaths | 03:52 |
| LjL | except if you're dying, then it might feel long | 03:52 |
| LjL | Dredd, what was of that UK project to, like, help other countries git gud at sequencing? | 03:52 |
| Dredd | LjL: I think they'll ramp up gradually, the 1 death has happened earlier than my schedule | 03:52 |
| Dredd | Dunno about the sequencing thing | 03:53 |
| LjL | Dredd, uhm so yeah anyway, i do remember right, *stark* rise in cases in South Africa, but still no signal at all on deaths https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Africa&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&legacy=no (and i believe someone else calculated that by now there *should* be a signal, and this in turn was said a few days ago) | 03:53 |
| Dredd | Omicron will soon be dominant here | 03:53 |
| Dredd | But the dominant decider of deaths will lag 3 or 4 weeks | 03:54 |
| Dredd | And it's hard to factor for the effect overwhelmed healthcare might cause in increasing that | 03:54 |
| Dredd | Plus then, assuming Boris gets his magic vaccine target hit, then we'd expect the effect of boosting to start dampening things down | 03:55 |
| LjL | and thing happening around f'ing new year ;( | 03:55 |
| Dredd | So it'll be hard to really pull out whether omicron is milder here without a proper analysis | 03:55 |
| Dredd | basically I guess we'd expect to see deaths go up and then fairly soon after come down again | 03:56 |
| Dredd | Though if healthcare gets overwhelmed that may cause an overlapping death increases that make it hard to judge the other signals | 03:56 |
| Dredd | That's all if it's not less severe | 03:56 |
| LjL | well, i think the people who loudly claim it's mild mean it's *really* mild | 03:57 |
| Dredd | if it is less severe, then we see the deaths start to come down once it outcompetes delta | 03:57 |
| Dredd | after a delay | 03:57 |
| LjL | (although i'm sure they'll change their tune after it's obvious it's not) | 03:57 |
| Dredd | and then further from the boosters | 03:57 |
| LjL | so if it's *really* mild, we should probably notice it | 03:57 |
| Dredd | maybe with confounding increases in deaths simple due to healthcare bottlenecks | 03:57 |
| Dredd | Proper analysis should be able to extract out a signal even if healthcare is overwhelmed but I hope it isn't | 03:59 |
| LjL | with Italy, i worry that the Omicron wave will be superimposed to the wave we're already having, *and* that in turn will happen right around Christmas / New Year, a perfect storm | 03:59 |
| Dredd | Afaik the UK has now shut down all it's pop up covid hospitals and stuff | 03:59 |
| Dredd | and even our vaccine centers | 03:59 |
| Dredd | and the remaining ones have reduced capacity a bunch | 04:00 |
| Dredd | so we're pretty much caught with out pants down here | 04:00 |
| LjL | with a few other European countries, i worry that their cases are now going down, it would be the end of their "natural" Delta wave, and people and governments might be like "whew, okay, can start relaxing now for a while" | 04:00 |
| Dredd | Which may be another reason for the strong reaction here | 04:00 |
| Dredd | Yeah the christmas timing is really bad | 04:00 |
| LjL | Dredd, for a century or a couple England had "plague hospitals" that were always ready to be "turned on". i think we've become *a bit* too complacent about epidemics compared to past centuries. | 04:01 |
| Dredd | yeah | 04:01 |
| Dredd | LjL: I think at least that you should see omicron supplant delta because it's just so moreish 😛 | 04:02 |
| LjL | in my heart, it's still the Nu variant | 04:04 |
| LjL | (also quite embarrassing they "couldn't" call it the Xi variant) | 04:04 |
| Dredd | I hope the LjL will permit this.... | 04:04 |
| * Dredd uploaded an image: (671KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/shortestpath.dev/umoxMScwDXTrRAScbFgMsDlx/image.png > | 04:04 | |
| * LjL gets mildly irked | 04:05 | |
| LjL | what can i do to convince my parents to wear friggin' Auras on their vaccine day? | 04:06 |
| LjL | my dad just doesn't care much about using masks properly. my mom has panicky "can't breathe"-y feelings with tight-fitting masks, plus long hair that doesn't go well with the Auras' back-of-head straps | 04:07 |
| LjL | they have the vaccine on saturday, there have been long queues and crowds in the vaccine centers lately, of course it's good they get it but i also think it could be a major source of infection compared to the few places they usually visit | 04:07 |
| LjL | i guess i can at least coax them into using the Korean masks, which i feel as a tiny bit better than the usual Chinese ones | 04:08 |
| Dredd | Auras? | 04:10 |
| Dredd | ah special masks | 04:10 |
| Dredd | "bad" masks are better than a "good" mask they take off I guess | 04:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canada to advise citizens against non-essential international travel due to Omicron variant → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rgol7i/canada_to_advise_citizens_against_nonessential/ | 04:10 |
| Dredd | LjL: have you looked at the comments on the daily mail article? The best and worst rated ones. Makes me very concerned about the UK populace lol | 04:11 |
| LjL | i have not, but, i can say this even before hand | 04:12 |
| LjL | that is generally true of *all* random internet comments :P | 04:12 |
| Dredd | It's a cess pit of antivax | 04:12 |
| Dredd | Outnumbering the other side like 10 to 1 | 04:12 |
| LjL | "It's more than that - digital IDs were certainly discussed when Bill Gates and a total of 8 World Economic Forum members had dinner with Boris in October." | 04:12 |
| LjL | it's the Daily Mail | 04:13 |
| Dredd | And just some racists | 04:13 |
| Dredd | > Who has time listening to some stupid doctor from a failed country called South Africa | 04:13 |
| Dredd | etc | 04:13 |
| LjL | but hey, at least, if these conservatives get mad at Boris, maybe they'll elect a Labour government next time. the ones with a Tory party leader. | 04:14 |
| LjL | psh, they don't even know the term is "failed state"! | 04:14 |
| Dredd | > She knows FA. Wouldnt know covid from yovid. Looks stoned royally. | 04:14 |
| Dredd | Keir Starmer is quite possibly David Cameron wearing a Scooby Doo style villain constum | 04:15 |
| Dredd | s/constum/costume / | 04:15 |
| LjL | "So Britain is over reacting? What about Denmark? And Norway? China? France? And Ireland (North and South) She's in her own little world." ← i bet Ireland loves being called "South Ireland" :P | 04:16 |
| Dredd | And Jeremy Corbyn (now an independent because he's been kicked out of labour) voted against the governments new covid measures 🤦♂️ | 04:16 |
| LjL | ;( | 04:16 |
| LjL | you know, something vaguely related that i thought about, on how politics is hopeless | 04:17 |
| LjL | in Italy there was/is something that could be vaguely referred to as a left-wing government, right? | 04:17 |
| LjL | not really, there's literally everyone but one party in it. but still, with a tactical majority on the left side, somewhat | 04:17 |
| LjL | so what happens is mostly left-wing people are "pro lockdowns", and right-wing people are anti-everything | 04:18 |
| Dredd | > I heard her on GB News and believe her more than SAGE & WHO and all the other doom bringers the government roll out | 04:18 |
| LjL | i know someone in Greece, they have a right-wing government there, they of course also did lockdowns and such | 04:18 |
| Dredd | Oh god, GB news | 04:18 |
| Dredd | The Farage channel | 04:18 |
| LjL | so guess what? he tells me that right-wing people are pro-lockdown, and left-wing people against | 04:18 |
| LjL | does it even make sense which technical side you're on anymore? the anti-greenpass protestors here were singing communist and fascist songs *at the same time* | 04:19 |
| Dredd | it's all a mess | 04:19 |
| Dredd | imo | 04:19 |
| LjL | and for the record, i'm actually against the green pass :P especially now that it's been extended and you need it to take any public transport, i think that's a bit much | 04:20 |
| LjL | but on the other hand i think just mandating vaccination would be way saner | 04:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: COVID-19: South Africa develops own coronavirus vaccine → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/covid-19-south-africa-develops-own-coronavirus-vaccine-7673573/ | 04:20 |
| LjL | mandatory vaccinations: something i've been subjected to since about 40 years | 04:20 |
| LjL | mandatory QR codes to get on a bus: fuck that noise | 04:20 |
| lastshell | I was thinking way back mandate vaccines was not a good thing | 04:20 |
| lastshell | but now I thing is no other option | 04:20 |
| LjL | i think it's just the time has come | 04:20 |
| LjL | in many ways | 04:20 |
| LjL | had you asked me some months ago, i'd have said i was against... it's not really that i've changed my mind, it's just that when the vaccine was still an "early" thing i thought it made sense to let people be skeptical about it without forcing them. but now it's... not entirely clear to what extent it "works", to be fair :P but quite clear it doesn't make you drop dead | 04:22 |
| LjL | so once it's more or less on par with other vaccines we already have on the reasonable-safety front, go ahead, it's a pandemic, make it mandatory | 04:22 |
| LjL | the ones among us who took it voluntarily are still alive | 04:23 |
| LjL | and i don't even have 5G reception | 04:23 |
| LjL | literally, because that costs extra with my carrier | 04:23 |
| lastshell | some conspiracy folks claim we are going to drop dead after 2 or 3 years of vaccination | 04:26 |
| Dredd | LjL: My phone doesn't even do 5G! | 04:26 |
| LjL | lastshell, yeah but 3 years from now, they'll say it's 4 years | 04:31 |
| LjL | you'll never make the "but what about long-term effects?" people happy | 04:31 |
| LjL | if it's shown as safe for 20 years, they still won't know what happens after 30 | 04:31 |
| lastshell | vaccines just stay in your body from hrs to couple of weeks | 04:31 |
| LjL | which i can even see as a vague concern, really. we haven't had vaccines cause anything bad after a long time, but hey, there's always a first time. i just think it's a minuscule concern compared to COVID | 04:32 |
| lastshell | yeah the long term effect doest not compute | 04:32 |
| LjL | the vaccines don't stay in your body for long, but the antibodies and other immune cells they elicit do | 04:32 |
| Dredd | Those views largely come from a complete misunderstanding of how vaccines work. And a vivid imagination | 04:32 |
| LjL | and autoimmune issues definitely exist | 04:32 |
| LjL | but it's so very theoretical | 04:32 |
| Justin[m]1 | <lastshell> "hey guys I hear people get..." <- After the booster I felt pretty bad for a few days: bad headache, mild nausia. I had nothing worse than a sore arm for the first two shots. A friend had similar symptoms after the booster, but much more severe. | 04:48 |
| minthos | LjL: they should have called it the Ni! variant | 05:00 |
| LjL | minthos, surely ny | 05:00 |
| minthos | I prefer monty python memes over new york confusion | 05:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Dr. Pat Soon-Shiong (@DrPatSoonShiong): theatlantic.com/science/archiv…. COVID vaccines @ImmunityBio drives T cells ..mix and match strategy for a universal COVID . News soon → https://twitter.com/DrPatSoonShiong/status/1470959323178098698 | 05:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +52233 cases (now 6.6 million) since 23 hours ago — Belgium: +9076 cases (now 2.0 million), +54 deaths (now 27685), +75040 tests (now 26.1 million) since a day ago — India: +247 deaths (now 476135), +2175365 tests (now 658.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 05:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Data indicate Omicron is milder, better at evading vaccines → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/omicron-variant-covid-research-vaccine-efficacy-7673556/ | 05:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Zero Sinovac vaccine takers had sufficient antibodies for Omicron in HK study → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rgr5it/zero_sinovac_vaccine_takers_had_sufficient/ | 06:23 |
| minthos | I'm ok with the vaccine not being mandatory since it mostly prevents serious illness and death rather than being infectious | 06:25 |
| minthos | if anti-vaxxers want to die that's not really my problem, the hospitals will be overwhelmed anyway | 06:28 |
| minthos | they do have a point about bodily autonomy, and as long as they are not a threat to public safety I think it's fine to indulge them | 06:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for England, United Kingdom: +52581 cases (now 9.3 million), +138 deaths (now 127479) since 23 hours ago — Ohio, United States: +9922 cases (now 1.8 million), +223 deaths (now 27594) since 23 hours ago — Parana, Brazil: +4117 cases (now 1.6 million), +16 deaths (now 40835) since 4 days ago — Veneto, Italy: +4088 cases (now 558205), +19 deaths (now 12084) since 23 hours ago | 06:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Hong Kong researchers urge third Covid-19 shot after new Omicron study → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/hong-kong-omicron-covid-vaccine-7673748/ | 07:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: J&J Shot Loses Antibody Protection Against Omicron in Study → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rgs591/jj_shot_loses_antibody_protection_against_omicron/ | 07:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Google To Fire Unvaccinated Employees → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rgsgof/google_to_fire_unvaccinated_employees/ | 07:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from MedicineNet: (news): Did Pandemic Lockdowns Worsen the Epidemic of Opioid Abuse? → http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp | 08:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘A terrible tragedy’: US passes 800,000 Covid deaths – highest in the world → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rgtc19/a_terrible_tragedy_us_passes_800000_covid_deaths/ | 08:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID drops slightly, still 'significant protection'-WHO → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rgthq1/vaccine_effectiveness_against_severe_covid_drops/ | 08:44 |
| xx | 800k deaths where the people were infected with covid at the time of death, vast majority not dying of covid, and the US population increased by 2M in the same year | 08:46 |
| xx | seems almost insignificant in perspective | 08:46 |
| sdfgsdfg | minthos if you count those who refuse to get the booster as part of the antivax, they would be majority | 08:46 |
| xx | sdfgsdfg: most got the vaccine as a way of telling the gov "ok, leave me alone now, I'm vaxxed" but when they realized they'll need a booster every 6 months until the end of times then they said "f off gov, leave me alone, I already did enough" | 08:47 |
| undefined_bob | xx: whats your proof of 'vast majority not dying of covid'? (hint, its bullshit) | 08:48 |
| xx | undefined_bob: because they die of diabetes, heart attack, stroke, cancer, liver failure, ... | 08:49 |
| xx | covid only makes existing conditions worse for the most part | 08:49 |
| undefined_bob | thats just not true. And most of those things are related to covid | 08:49 |
| xx | please note that I am not denying that *some* definitely die of just covid | 08:49 |
| xx | but the number of active, fit, previously fully healthy with no comorbidities people that die of covid is just miniscule | 08:50 |
| undefined_bob | and your numbers for that are? | 08:51 |
| xx | undefined_bob: look into any of the things posted by the bot in here and you'll see what the people that die are like | 08:51 |
| xx | also note that I am only talking about deaths, and not about serious complications or long-lasting effects | 08:52 |
| undefined_bob | the the average age on the ICU has been decreasing for some time now. Its by far not only 70/80+ anymore | 08:54 |
| undefined_bob | its more like 40/50+ | 08:54 |
| xx | I didn't say anything about age | 08:54 |
| xx | I know overweight people with diabetes that haven't exercised since middle school that will most likely die if they catch corona | 08:54 |
| xx | and they are 30+ | 08:54 |
| undefined_bob | as older they are as more comorbidities they have in general | 08:54 |
| xx | right, but then we could attribute lots of strokes, heart attacks, cancers and organ failures each year to shingles, flu, other respiratory viruses, etc. because they are also known to make existing conditions much worse in a certain type of population | 08:56 |
| sdfgsdfg | so with something as stupid as contaminated polio vaccines, only 6 DECADES later we found out that they caused 5 different cancers "These data suggest that there may be an increased incidence of certain cancers among the 98 million persons exposed to contaminated polio vaccine in the U.S.; further investigations are clearly justified." ependymomas (37%), osteogenic sarcomas (26%), other bone tumors (34%) and mesothelioma (90%) | 08:56 |
| sdfgsdfg | but it's an older vaccine technology and not fair to compare of course | 08:57 |
| xx | sdfgsdfg: cause is a very strong word there that I am not fully convinced of through reading the existing literature on it. The most that I'd be comfortable with would be "strongly influenced cancer probablity in combination with environmental and lifestyle factors" | 08:58 |
| xx | they did not properly control for all that based on what I read, they just wanted to publish a series of studies that bash vaccines | 08:58 |
| xx | or we simply live in a time where every study that's published always contains massive errors in controlling confounding variables for reasons unknown | 08:59 |
| undefined_bob | I dont like errors | 09:00 |
| xx | the conspiracy theorist would say they do it in order to say "more funding and study is needed" | 09:00 |
| sdfgsdfg | probably the "conflict of interest" | 09:00 |
| sdfgsdfg | there is an entire library of research on "conflict of interest" with psychiatry | 09:01 |
| xx | it really is ridiculous that a random person on reddit is able to identify a factor in a study that scientists with a decade of experience "forgot" to control for and did not even mention | 09:01 |
| sdfgsdfg | unreported conflict of interest I mean | 09:01 |
| jacklsw | hey bob | 09:01 |
| undefined_bob | oh hey jacklsw | 09:02 |
| sdfgsdfg | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1805723/ | 09:02 |
| sdfgsdfg | .title | 09:02 |
| Brainstorm | sdfgsdfg: From www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: One flew over the conflict of interest nest | 09:02 |
| sdfgsdfg | lol | 09:02 |
| undefined_bob | how are you doing? Haven't seen us for a while | 09:02 |
| xx | maybe we simply don't have the money to do studies well anymore, and so everything in science is done by the cheapest possible way as fast as possible | 09:02 |
| xx | which also means hiring the cheapest scientists too | 09:03 |
| sdfgsdfg | this is the last reference I'll post on that, sorry https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1805729/ | 09:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | December 15, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rgu08b/daily_discussion_thread_december_15_2021/ | 09:03 |
| xx | sdfgsdfg: my issue with psychiatry is the demonstrated lack of reproducibility of results, which is a separate but related issue yeah | 09:04 |
| sdfgsdfg | yes, I had to study the origin story of Lobotomy because of that :D A chain read quest with: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/11727503_Portrayal_of_Lobotomy_in_the_Popular_Press_1935-1960 "....study analyzed the content of popular press articles on lobotomy between the years 1935 and 1960. Both a qualitative and quantitative analysis provided evidence that the press initially used uncritical and sensational reporting styles, with the | 09:16 |
| sdfgsdfg | content of articles on lobotomy becoming increasingly negative through time. The initial positive bias occurred despite opposing views in the medical community, which provided a basis for more balanced coverage. These findings support the theory that biased reporting in popular press articles may have been a factor influencing the quick and widespread adoption of lobotomy as a psychiatric treatment." | 09:16 |
| sdfgsdfg | However, a cynical public soon began questioning whether the effects of a lobotomy were in fact worse than the disease it purported to cure. Unarguably more manageable post lobotomy, lobotomised patients were also left with irreversible changes in their persona, and were described as mental invalids and drooling zombies. Moniz himself came under attack for understating the complications, inadequate documentation and poor patient follow-up. | 09:16 |
| sdfgsdfg | Incredibly, despite such jarring criticisms, lobotomies became a mainstay of surgical psychiatric treatment. Until the advent of antipsychotic drugs in the 1960s when lobotomies rapidly fell into disfavour and faded into oblivion, some 5,000 lobotomies were performed in the United States alone | 09:16 |
| sdfgsdfg | isn't that insane that this happened only a few decades ago | 09:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +52233 cases (now 6.6 million) since 23 hours ago | 09:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Amazon’s plastic waste soars by a third amid pandemic, report finds | Plastics → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rguc5f/amazons_plastic_waste_soars_by_a_third_amid/ | 09:50 |
| Dredd | xx: gonna need a citation about the "covid largely doesn't kill people" | 10:02 |
| Dredd | The only things I've ever seen pushing that view are covid-denying propagandas | 10:03 |
| Dredd | It just isn't supported by the science and the reason covid deaths are measured the way they are now is because that is the useful metric, as it's possible to compare covid / non-covid populations and also look at overall excess deaths vs the norm | 10:03 |
| Dredd | COVID-19 isn't a special thing - it's a term defined for the illness caused by SARS-COV-2, and illness which includes all the symptoms and causes of death you mentioned that "aren't COVID-19" | 10:05 |
| Dredd | By all means discuss this stuff but be prepared to bring actual sources when asked | 10:05 |
| xx | it's more of a technical difference. Kinda like saying driving fast doesn't increase deaths, suddenly reducing velocity to 0 does. | 10:05 |
| Dredd | No it isn't really. I do get your point but it's how the world works | 10:07 |
| Dredd | A death can only be attributed to a condition through obvious correlation | 10:07 |
| Dredd | Which is what they are doing here | 10:07 |
| xx | well, as a starting point for discussion https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm | 10:08 |
| xx | At least one underlying medical condition was reported for 8,134 (76.4%) of decedents for whom supplementary data were collected, including 83.1% of decedents aged <65 years. Overall, the most common underlying medical conditions were cardiovascular disease (60.9%), diabetes mellitus (39.5%), chronic kidney disease (20.8%), and chronic lung disease (19.2%) (Table 2). Among decedents aged <65 | 10:08 |
| xx | years, 83.1% had one or more underlying medical conditions. Among decedents aged ≥85 years, 69.5% had one or more underlying medical conditions. | 10:08 |
| xx | my use of the word majority means >50% | 10:08 |
| Dredd | Comparable more to for example, Kidney failure at 70 being "You have died of age" vs kidney failure at 30 "This is not expected, there is some pathology, lets go find it" | 10:08 |
| Dredd | There might often be a pathology visible in the 70 year old but it's likely related to age | 10:09 |
| Dredd | So we call it "dying of age" | 10:09 |
| xx | (somehow quotes got removed, but you hopefully see the quotation) | 10:09 |
| Dredd | The statisticians calculating things aren't clueless buffoons that code-deniers / anti-vax people seem to think they are. They report values that are significant and countries are largely not expecting to get to 0 covid deaths but a stable low level (the UK has run like this a while) | 10:10 |
| Dredd | It's meaningful to compare mortality around covid diagnoses compared to those not around covid etc | 10:10 |
| Dredd | Which is what happens | 10:10 |
| Dredd | But saying COVID doesn't kill people doesn't really make sense | 10:11 |
| Dredd | That paper is very old and that people who die are at risk people is not any kind of argument for "COVID doesn't kill people" | 10:11 |
| xx | Dredd: if you scroll down, you'll see I said "covid only makes existing conditions worse for the most part" | 10:12 |
| Dredd | And with vaccines and culling of the herd by covid so to speak, the demographic of those with severe disease and death has shifted over time in most places | 10:12 |
| xx | so if I were to refine my statement, I'd say "covid is not the primary cause of death, the underlying conditions are the cause of death, exacerbated through covid" | 10:13 |
| Dredd | xx: Re-phrased: Covid is most deadly to those with vulnerability, who often are older or have pre-existing conditions | 10:13 |
| Dredd | xx: That's how *a lot* of deaths happen for a *lot* of things | 10:13 |
| Dredd | My Grandad died of Kidney Failure induced by flu | 10:13 |
| Dredd | But his cause of death is still flu related | 10:14 |
| Dredd | Had he not got the flu then he would have lived | 10:14 |
| xx | yes, and we don't make a big deal out of those others things (or at least not such a big deal as we make with covid) | 10:14 |
| Dredd | We don't make a big deal of them as they are stable, manageable and treated to the best of our ability | 10:14 |
| xx | I'm all for implementing measures that stop the spread of covid, and reduce mortality etc. but at the same time I'd like people to see things in perspective | 10:14 |
| Dredd | but COVID has killed a large number of people who would still be alive were we in an alternative universe where it did not arise | 10:15 |
| Dredd | that is why we call them "covid deaths" | 10:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Lithuania: +2215 cases (now 495686), +18 deaths (now 7039), +1592 vaccines (now 1.9 million), +21151 tests (now 6.4 million) since a day ago | 10:15 |
| Dredd | I don't think anyone doesn't see them from that perspective - anyone who needs to that is | 10:15 |
| Dredd | The fact is, covid is associated with a relatively high mortality compared to endemic stuff and is a developing situation that is unstable | 10:16 |
| xx | e.g. I'd be happy if all countries closed down all international travel every year during a flu season | 10:16 |
| Dredd | That is part of why we care | 10:16 |
| xx | make it a yearly thing, predictable and so on, so that businesses and people can prepare | 10:16 |
| Dredd | xx: That's a false equivalency - the situation is not the same. It's another line taken by anti-vax and covid deniers frequently | 10:16 |
| xx | but nowadays it's all covid covid covid and I'm sick of them ignoring all the other things | 10:16 |
| Dredd | No one is ignoring other things | 10:17 |
| Dredd | infact covid measures improved flu outcomes too | 10:17 |
| Dredd | 🤦♂️ | 10:17 |
| Dredd | I think I'm about done on this | 10:17 |
| xx | I'd love for influenza-b to be eradicated | 10:17 |
| Dredd | I don't think flu is any more likely to vanish from this earth that covid, not soon with our current technology these days | 10:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Doctors are under more work pressure than during height of covid-19 pandemic in 2020: The pressures on doctors generated by the covid-19 pandemic have worsened during 2021 and this will have repercussions for doctors’ welfare, patient safety, and workforce retention, the General... → http://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3088.short | 10:20 |
| Dredd | I've seen a doctors posting videos and such about how the boris vaccine push has come out of nowhere and is a big problem for them | 10:21 |
| dTal | Dredd, link? | 10:21 |
| Dredd | I can't find the exact video I'm thinking of but was reminded of it by brainstorm's link above | 10:23 |
| Dredd | Googling brings up this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-59634523 | 10:23 |
| dTal | xx: I'm not sure what your overall point is. Is it that society is overreacting to covid? | 10:23 |
| xx | dTal: I'm mainly just rambling I guess | 10:23 |
| undefined_bob | I can agree with Dredd | 10:24 |
| undefined_bob | and hi dTal | 10:24 |
| xx | frustrated by lack of effective action worldwide due to politicians wanting to be reelected I guess | 10:24 |
| dTal | howdy bob-who-has-yet-to-be-defined | 10:24 |
| undefined_bob | xx: its so wrong to only blame the politicians. Its the humans themselves who act stupid | 10:25 |
| undefined_bob | dTal: :D how are you doing? | 10:25 |
| xx | undefined_bob: that's an open question. Is it the factories causing polution due to demand, or is it he people who demand the stuff? | 10:25 |
| xx | is it the cows causing trouble, or the people who want to eat cows | 10:25 |
| xx | etc. | 10:25 |
| xx | every societal problem can likely be split along those two lines | 10:25 |
| dTal | xx: I'm pretty uncomfortable with the thrust of your remarks. Especially the "only people with preexisting conditions die" thing, as a way to minimize the severity of covid. | 10:25 |
| xx | dTal: I don't see how that would imply that covid is not severe | 10:26 |
| xx | but maybe I just don't express myself well | 10:26 |
| dTal | undefined_bob: Arm hurts, otherwise great | 10:26 |
| undefined_bob | stupiditiy can't be controlled by democratic politicians. Only by dictators with force | 10:26 |
| undefined_bob | dTal: got your 3rd shot recently? or why does your arm hurt? | 10:26 |
| Dredd | undefined_bob: And t | 10:27 |
| xx | undefined_bob: which is why I'm extra saddened that we can't know whether the data from north korea/china can be trusted. Maybe they solved covid, maybe they did not. | 10:27 |
| Dredd | s/t/human behaviour is part of why the politicians behave that way too/ | 10:27 |
| dTal | for example you said <xx> covid only makes existing conditions worse for the most part | 10:27 |
| dTal | the "only" does a lot of work there | 10:27 |
| dTal | what percentage of people don't have *any* existing conditions? A minority I'd say | 10:28 |
| Dredd | I don't think there's anywhere in the world that hasn't portrayed that it is a specific subset of immunonaive individuals who are most susceptible | 10:29 |
| Dredd | But also, rarely, 32 year old fit marathon runners have died | 10:29 |
| undefined_bob | chinas numbers can be more trusted than north korea for example. Because regardless of all restrictions there are still unfiltered reports of citizens | 10:29 |
| xx | Dredd: exactly the percentage that has been taking good care of their body their entire life, as one should, instead of relying on doctors to fix bad habits when they lead to trouble | 10:29 |
| Dredd | That's how stats works | 10:29 |
| Dredd | And as mentioned earlier, vaccines have shifted the risk profile | 10:29 |
| dTal | for example, obesity is an exacerbating condition. Fully a third of Americans are obese. That's *one* condition. | 10:29 |
| Dredd | Along with behaviour changes | 10:30 |
| Dredd | xx: No, disagree. overly simplistic view. See above | 10:30 |
| Dredd | You are totally ignoring things like asthmas | 10:30 |
| Dredd | s/asthmas/asthma/ | 10:30 |
| Dredd | various genetic conditions | 10:30 |
| Dredd | various immune conditions | 10:30 |
| xx | yes, and people really really shouldn't be obese, and the gov is unwilling to tackle that issue by e.g. increasing insurance costs to obese people or announcing that medical care will not be provided to obese people | 10:30 |
| Dredd | exercise is good for sure. I'd never recommend against it or say it's clearly not going to help | 10:30 |
| xx | similarly with smokers, or people who consume alcohol, etc. | 10:31 |
| dTal | That won't fix the problem, it'll just further exacerbate the class warfare | 10:31 |
| xx | we already kinda do it with denying lung/liver transplants, or putting those people at the end of the list | 10:31 |
| Dredd | xx: Lol, that won't work. It doesn't work for people taking dangerous substances either. Controlling people, or trying to, also doesn't help people stupidly not taking vaccines when there's effectively no downside for them 😉 | 10:31 |
| dTal | it's also extremely ethically... shall we say "problematic" | 10:32 |
| xx | Dredd: I have no data to support my statement, but I have a hunch that if people knew they wouldn't receive any medical care, then they'd take measures to take better care of their own help in order to not need medical care | 10:32 |
| Dredd | It's basically eugenics | 10:32 |
| xx | which would also include taking vaccines | 10:32 |
| dTal | okay but not providing medical care to people is like, evil | 10:33 |
| undefined_bob | they should pay for it | 10:33 |
| xx | this way, people know they'll receive medical care worth hundreds of thousands of dollars if they get a severe covid, despite not taking the vaccine | 10:33 |
| undefined_bob | like they already have to in some countries | 10:33 |
| dTal | why don't you just line up the town and shoot obese people 1 by 1, every day | 10:33 |
| xx | and that just rubs me the wrong way | 10:33 |
| Dredd | xx: that view is based on the mistaken idea that people just don't see that not being obese is bad so they shouldn't do it. They already know and don't want to be that way and are usually unhappy about it. But it's not that simple to just stop being obese | 10:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Estonia: +655 cases (now 229869), +1 deaths (now 1869), +7420 tests (now 2.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 10:33 |
| Dredd | Some people are naturally less prone to it, and some people find it a lifelong struggle | 10:33 |
| Dredd | some people are in the middle | 10:34 |
| Dredd | but it's clearly a common problem | 10:34 |
| undefined_bob | I meant only people who get unvaxxted covid | 10:34 |
| dTal | framing obesity as a personal failure is deranged | 10:34 |
| xx | Dredd: it's my lifelong conviction that preventing obesity can be solved by not eating too much. North Korea has managed it. (I'm only half-sarcastic here) | 10:34 |
| dTal | when a third the population is obese, it's clearly a systemic problem | 10:34 |
| undefined_bob | thats true | 10:34 |
| Dredd | xx: have you suffered with obesity a lot in your life? | 10:34 |
| Dredd | I'm all for sugar taxes and things like that. Not blocking healthcare for people who aren't desirable | 10:35 |
| xx | Dredd: I was obese once after a bad life experience, and became fit two years later. | 10:35 |
| Dredd | Especially in countries like the US where people have to pay for it, it makes no sense | 10:35 |
| xx | morbidly so I guess, BMI over 35 | 10:35 |
| xx | now I'm at 22 I think | 10:35 |
| undefined_bob | I'm not, I'm more like the opposite of obesity. Like I'm too slim | 10:35 |
| dTal | this is like saying that a lot of people seem to be getting lung diseases from asbestos poisoning, so rather than banning asbestos we'll just... not treat them | 10:35 |
| Dredd | So your obesity was situational and not a lifelong struggle? And your view is coloured by this? | 10:35 |
| dTal | and hopefully that will make people avoid asbestos | 10:35 |
| Dredd | Lots of people still smoke despite it obviously being even more harmful than obesity etc | 10:36 |
| xx | Dredd: I can't tell what has shaped my views, the least I can admit is that I personally experienced obesity, and managed to get out of it by just not eating too much | 10:36 |
| Dredd | despite insane prices, taxes, pictures of dying people and deformed organs on packages | 10:36 |
| xx | Dredd: but imagine they'd be refused medical care, that might be a wakeup call | 10:36 |
| Dredd | Because the issue is more complicated is all I'm saying | 10:36 |
| xx | or at least refused *free* medical care | 10:36 |
| Dredd | It hasn't worked for smoking | 10:36 |
| Dredd | Or for drinking | 10:37 |
| dTal | xx, you do realize that this is an evil mindset | 10:37 |
| xx | I'm not aware of any place actually implementing what I am suggesting | 10:37 |
| Dredd | I've seen you post several times things like "exercise is the answer" | 10:37 |
| Dredd | etc | 10:37 |
| xx | dTal: eh, I don't really concern myself with evil | 10:37 |
| dTal | it shows | 10:37 |
| Dredd | That's overly simplistic | 10:37 |
| xx | there are too many people, that's where I am coming from I guess | 10:37 |
| Dredd | And also a misunderstanding of the wider issues | 10:37 |
| dTal | crikey | 10:37 |
| xx | and I am a supporter of vhemt.org | 10:37 |
| Dredd | double crikey | 10:38 |
| dTal | humans will not go extinct voluntarily, that's an obvious given | 10:39 |
| dTal | so I wonder what they really hope will happen... | 10:39 |
| Dredd | there's a lot of oversimplifications on that page / including ignoring the obvious issues | 10:39 |
| Dredd | E.g. "If sex is an urge to procreate, then hunger’s an urge to defecate." | 10:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Will we always need Covid-19 boosters? Experts have theories: STAT asked nine experts whether they think we face a future of endless Covid boosting. In the main, their answers were more reassuring than we expected. → https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/15/will-we-always-need-covid-19-boosters-experts-have-theories/ | 10:39 |
| xx | dTal: if people volunatrily breathe in asbestos despite being told not to, and presented ways of not doing it, then yeah, don't treat them for asbestosis or related cancers | 10:39 |
| Dredd | It's clearly written by someone with no understanding of human psychology | 10:39 |
| Dredd | Or even animal psychology | 10:40 |
| dTal | xx: ...are you serious | 10:40 |
| xx | dTal: about which part? | 10:40 |
| dTal | You missed the entire point | 10:40 |
| Dredd | There's a lot of asbestos around that people don't know about | 10:40 |
| dTal | Nobody "voluntarily breathes in asbestos" | 10:40 |
| Dredd | I have been exposed to asbestos dust by incompetent builders sent to my flat by my landlord years ago | 10:40 |
| xx | Dredd: well, one is voluntary action (smoking cigarretes), the other is involuntary (accidental exposure to asbestos) | 10:40 |
| dTal | people breathe asbestos situationally, accidentally, through constraints or pressures of their career | 10:41 |
| xx | that's where I draw the line | 10:41 |
| Dredd | I was comparing smoking to over-eating, not to the asbestos btw | 10:41 |
| dTal | you've got this puritan idea that obese people are obese because of a personal moral failing and they deserve to be punished and have their human dignity stripped | 10:41 |
| dTal | because you yourself had a minor run-in with it and beat it pretty easily, and so you have no sympathy | 10:42 |
| xx | dTal: I don't think it has anything to do with any personal moral failings, I think it just has to do with eating more calories than needed | 10:42 |
| dTal | but dude a third of americans are obese | 10:42 |
| Dredd | xx: that again is overly simplistic | 10:42 |
| Dredd | On a thermodynamic level, that is the problem | 10:42 |
| dTal | but why do people do that | 10:42 |
| xx | that's like saying a third of americans own slaves - that doesn't make it alright (yeah a bit of a strawman, but you get the point) | 10:42 |
| Dredd | but we are not some machine that has badly tuned parameters | 10:42 |
| Dredd | and we do not function like one | 10:43 |
| dTal | do they wake up one day and go "gee I'm gonna go out and eat too many calories so I can be unhealthy" | 10:43 |
| Dredd | The point is why do the people eat to much? and how do I get them to stop? incase you are not following | 10:43 |
| Dredd | And those are individual, multivariate and complex issues | 10:43 |
| Dredd | Involving human psychology | 10:43 |
| Dredd | As well as situational issues | 10:43 |
| Dredd | dTal: glad to see we're on the same sort of page | 10:44 |
| xx | I prefer thermodynamics to human psychology | 10:44 |
| dTal | what do you mean "prefer" | 10:44 |
| Dredd | I am obese right now techinically (at least I think I am) | 10:45 |
| Dredd | I have been this way many times in my life | 10:45 |
| Dredd | I have also been underweight | 10:45 |
| xx | it means I know how to solve the obesity epidemic through thermodynamics (calories in, calories out) than through human psychology | 10:45 |
| Dredd | I also am in some stupidly high percentile of the population if you measure my IQ or do some cognitive battery on me but yet I am still overweight | 10:45 |
| Dredd | Despite knowing many reasons I shouldn't be | 10:45 |
| dTal | lets not forget that the reason we're talking about obesity is because of covid lethality | 10:46 |
| Dredd | And even having a fairly robust practical knowledge of modern human psychology | 10:46 |
| dTal | the subtext here is that we shouldn't worry about covid too much because it only kills people who deserve it | 10:46 |
| xx | dTal: not the subtext I am going for though | 10:46 |
| Dredd | Yeah fuck that | 10:46 |
| Dredd | I only mention myself as an example of why it's fairly silly to say "Yeah, you eat to much, don't do that and that is easy" and give an example | 10:47 |
| xx | we should worry, and at the same time there should be a media massage 24/7 to get people to exercise, get fit, stop being obese, get active, move, eat healthier, ... and present options on how to do all of that. Instead of just saying "here's a vaccine, take it, covid is over". | 10:47 |
| Dredd | xx: you are again saying one thing despite having done the opposite. You literally said that covid doesn't really kill people it's other things. And that people should exercise and that will make it not kill people. They die because they're obese | 10:48 |
| dTal | and that we should refuse medical care to obese people as an incentive | 10:48 |
| xx | covid could have been an opportunity to improve the health of global population, if the desire was there to push that message | 10:48 |
| Dredd | You can claim you aren't saying that but that doesn't make it true, even if you believe it | 10:48 |
| dTal | which is another way of saying as a punishment | 10:48 |
| Dredd | And that you can operate with that view is because you are a human and human beings are capable of self-delusion and magical thinking, perhaps? | 10:48 |
| Dredd | sigh anyway yeah I'm done again | 10:49 |
| Dredd | I need to work | 10:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: Human medicine assessment reports: (news): Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Pregabalin Pfizer, pregabalin, Anxiety Disorders;Epilepsy, Date of authorisation: 10/04/2014, Revision: 24, Status: Authorised → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/pregabalin-pfizer | 10:49 |
| xx | probably, there's definitely gonna be some DK involved, but at the same time it is hard to see 2 years go by when I personally saw what an individual can achieve in 2 years. | 10:49 |
| dTal | xx: you're putting aaaaall the responsibility on the individual, and your only suggestions for what government should do is to think new and cruel ways to put the responsibility on the individual even more | 10:49 |
| dTal | it really seems like you have an empathy deficit | 10:50 |
| xx | I can emphatise with people, but I have zero sympathy with those who only expect others to fix them instead of working on improving oneself | 10:50 |
| dTal | when you're at the stage of denying medical care to a third of the population to teach them a lesson, you really need to take a step back and rethink | 10:50 |
| Dredd | xx: feel free to discuss your views, this has gone pretty off topic though so lets let this drop here relatively soon. If you share these views repeatedly as facts and without evidence though it may be grounds for bans or muting in future if it's excessive as has happened before. The room is not really a place supportive of more fringe views around covid and the pandemic | 10:51 |
| dTal | take some time to reflect on what "evil" is and why you should care about it | 10:51 |
| xx | dTal: if you scroll back, I said "announcing that medical care will not be provided to obese people". That can mean giving everyone 2 years to get fit. | 10:51 |
| xx | but yeah, I accept that this is not strictly covid related, so I'll stop with this line of discussion | 10:51 |
| Dredd | xx: I want to clarify "if it's excessive as has happened before" doesn't mean you've done it before btw. I mean in the case of other users 🙂 | 10:56 |
| xx | Dredd: don't worry, I know what you mean, I'm not a special snowflake, I fully accept and understand your point. | 10:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from PubMed: Yutaka Saito: Preclinical Efficacy and Clinical Feasibility of a Novel Aerosol-Exposure Protection Mask for Esophagogastroduodenoscopy → https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34905818/ | 11:18 |
| Dredd | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-59656626 | 11:55 |
| Dredd | Interesting outcome | 11:55 |
| Dredd | They mention her mother is dying which sucks | 11:59 |
| Dredd | Given her reversal of her views, I wonder if it's of COVID related stuff? | 11:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on COVID-19 vaccination in the EU/EEA: Data in various file formats with information on COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, manufacturers, and target groups in the EU/EEA. → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/data-covid-19-vaccination-eu-eea | 12:25 |
| dTal | okay I am starting to feel a trifle wobbly | 12:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from ScienceNews: In 2021, COVID-19 vaccines were put to the test. Here’s what we learned: Vaccines can’t single-handedly end the pandemic, but they are still essential in the fight against the coronavirus. → https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-coronavirus-vaccines-review-pandemic-2021 | 13:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +252 cases (now 825016), +6 deaths (now 11565), +9212 tests (now 4.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 13:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): If you haven´t already done so; after J&J a booster is highly recommended at least 2 months after the vaccination. Boosting with J&J after RNA vaccines is also good.ema.europa.eu/en/news/covid-… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1471090689857490944 | 13:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Malta: +168 cases (now 40892) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +493 cases (now 11.0 million) since 18 hours ago | 13:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Six MEPs sanctioned for breach of EU health pass rules: Six MEPs were sanctioned for breaking the European Parliament’s health pass rules, which require anyone entering the building to show their EU Digital COVID Pass, Parliament President David Sassoli said at the [... want %more?] → https://www.politico.eu/article/six-meps-sanctioned-for-breach-of-eu-health-pass-rules/ | 13:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Omicron spreading so fast it threatens Britain's hospitals → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rgy6lh/omicron_spreading_so_fast_it_threatens_britains/ | 13:52 |
| xx | with the speed it is spreading now, is there anything that could be done *today* so that hospitals are not overwhelmed in 10-14 days? | 13:54 |
| xx | right now the numbers look like xmas will be dire for hospitals in every affected country | 13:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: J&J Shot Loses Antibody Protection Against Omicron in Study → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rgyboq/jj_shot_loses_antibody_protection_against_omicron/ | 14:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: UK Prime Minister (@10DowningStreet): Watch this evening's COVID-19 press conference live on our channels from 5pm. pic.twitter.com/H0cDRrueNo → https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1471102955646603264 | 14:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +297 cases (now 1.6 million), +4 deaths (now 28038), +28153 tests (now 11.2 million) since 22 hours ago | 14:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: HKUMed finds Omicron SARS-CoV-2 can infect faster and better than Delta in human bronchus but with less severe infection in lung → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rgylbk/hkumed_finds_omicron_sarscov2_can_infect_faster/ | 14:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): This is indeed (thanks @mugecevik) like previous observations in @BalazsLab showing Omicron to be quicker. An attribute required although delta is already very quick to get in, multiply, and spread before being cleared by our immune system.medrxiv.org/content/10.110… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1471107443493122048 | 14:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +11128 cases (now 1.1 million), +26 deaths (now 11888), +78123 tests (now 13.3 million) since 23 hours ago | 14:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from Johnson&Johnson: Johnson & Johnson Announces Positive CHMP Opinion for a Booster Shot of its COVID-19 Vaccine: CHMP recommendation based on data showing a booster (second shot) of the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine increased protection to 75 percent [... want %more?] → https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-positive-chmp-opinion-for-a-booster-shot-of-its-covid-19-vaccine | 14:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: Human medicine assessment reports: (news): Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Comirnaty, Tozinameran,COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine (nucleoside modified), COVID-19 virus infection, Date of authorisation: 21/12/2020, Revision: 17, Status: Authorised → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/comirnaty | 15:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Saudi Arabia: +88 cases (now 550457), +1 deaths (now 8857), +56516 tests (now 32.1 million) since a day ago | 15:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Bowing to pressure, J.P. Morgan says its health care conference will be virtual: The J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, biotech’s biggest annual conference, will be virtual, the bank said, bowing to pressure from big-name drug companies [... want %more?] → https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/15/bowing-to-pressure-j-p-morgan-says-its-health-care-conference-will-be-virtual/ | 15:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: General: COVID-19: latest updates → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/covid-19-latest-updates | 15:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): Davide Corti has some very interesting data for neutralization drop against Omicron that includes Sputnik V and SinoPharm (BBIBP-CorV, inactivated vaccine). biorxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/p5efr5X26P → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1471126867759538177 | 15:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for UAE: +148 cases (now 743152), +340100 tests (now 105.6 million) since a day ago | 15:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Omicron spreads faster than any other variant, WHO says. It's now in 77 countries: "Omicron is spreading at a rate we have not seen with any previous variant," says WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. → https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/12/15/1064432010/omicron-spread-variant-coronavirus | 15:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): We got through bucketfuls of listener questions today, on everything from Omicron’s severity, to impact on kids, to the new paper on bronchi vs lungs, to lateral flows vs PCRs. If you missed it, listen back here: twitter.com/FinancialTimes… → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1471135512891215888 | 16:17 |
| rpifan | when will novavax be ready for europe | 16:27 |
| rpifan | and / or the other one | 16:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Omicron’s immune evasiveness across all vaccines and prior Covid infectees, now widely replicated for the marked decline in neutralizing antibodies twitter.com/florian_kramme… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1471137101320122370 | 16:27 |
| undefined_bob | rpifan: not clear yet | 16:28 |
| rpifan | suchs | 16:28 |
| rpifan | sucks | 16:28 |
| xx | you think it will finally convince some people to vaxx? | 16:29 |
| xx | some people = some vulnerable groups of people | 16:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +4635 cases (now 1.9 million), +32 deaths (now 30031) since 23 hours ago | 16:40 |
| lastshell | guys if I have 3 air filters plus house with merv 13 and two fans with merv13 will be safe to host xmas at home for 8 people ? | 16:46 |
| xx | lastshell: in combination with other measures, you are decreasing the chance of infection but not eliminating it | 16:52 |
| xx | you'd really need an industrial-grade air circulation mechanism instead, that doesn't let any breathed out air reach any other person | 16:53 |
| xx | basically wind in every room, probably coming from the ceiling into the floor | 16:53 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | A bit of moral dilemma here. I was thinking of ending my social isolation today, as it's 10 days from my first positive test. The LFT shows an extremely faint T line. It literally developed at min 25. Even now it's almost an hour and the line is barely visble. Can I safely end self isolation? | 16:53 |
| ublx | xx: from the ceiling onto the floor? | 16:54 |
| xx | ublx: if I remember it right, yeah | 16:54 |
| xx | the alternative would be to severely increase the gravitational force in your house, but the tech is not there yet | 16:55 |
| ublx | no expert on airflow but i wouldn't want to homogenise the indoor air even with all that filtration | 16:55 |
| xx | Guest53_ex_47: it depends on what you mean by ending it. You want to go out and party in a club? Or you want to put on a mask and go shop for necessities? | 16:55 |
| xx | ublx: I'm just comparing it to a clean room (not medical) setup we have | 16:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: T-cell vaccines could top up immunity to COVID, as variants loom large → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rh1wxh/tcell_vaccines_could_top_up_immunity_to_covid_as/ | 16:56 |
| xx | clean filtered air coming from high, and getting sucked out near the floor in many places | 16:57 |
| ublx | the idea being to move contaminants to the ground as quickly as possible? is that a useful principle for an aerosol that follows airflow and doesn't go to ground? | 16:57 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | xx just go out and shop. However Friday I have an appointment at the hospital | 16:57 |
| ublx | why would the air on the ceiling be clean in a homogenised environment? | 16:57 |
| xx | Guest53_ex_47: that doesn't sound like an ethical dilemma, but I know little about ethics. I know people go out shopping even when positive :\ | 16:58 |
| xx | ublx: don't know, it's blown by fans | 16:58 |
| xx | sucked in through multiple hepa filters regularly inspected and replaced | 16:58 |
| xx | also has some weird anti-humidity treatment to it | 16:59 |
| ublx | inspected and replaced during a christmas gathering? | 16:59 |
| ublx | i'm not sure lastshell's system is drawing outdoor air in through these filters | 16:59 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | I just want to be sure I'm not infecting anybody | 16:59 |
| xx | Guest53_ex_47: good that you're being considerate, but if you're really concerned then just shop online and order deliveries? | 17:00 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | No I'm going mental here | 17:00 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | I need to at least have a walk | 17:00 |
| xx | a walk away from anyone else should be fine | 17:01 |
| ublx | Guest53_ex_47: can you wear an N95 mask indefinitely? | 17:01 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | no | 17:01 |
| ublx | at all? | 17:02 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | how does a no mean anything else than a no? | 17:04 |
| ublx | i took your no to be an answer to my question, which was qualified with the word indefinitely | 17:04 |
| ublx | so in that context, 'at all' means can you wear an N95 for perhaps a short time? | 17:05 |
| lastshell | yes the filters will arrive today | 17:05 |
| ublx | anyway | 17:05 |
| ublx | how about shop online and do exercise outdoors | 17:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Congratulations to @Tuliodna and @kallmemeg for their extraordinary efforts during the pandemic, named today as @Nature's 10, among 10 people who helped shape science for 2021 nature.com/articles/d4158… pic.twitter.com/Yd8ukcsxvn → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1471148293228879873 | 17:06 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | well i need to kno if i can end self isolation or not. that faint line might be there forever, although it's fainter evry day | 17:06 |
| ublx | with government estimating 200,000 cases in the UK right now, and doubling time shortening, why would you want to go inside a busy shop right now | 17:07 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | ubix you are missing the point here | 17:07 |
| ublx | the point being you're going slowly mad being cooped up inside? | 17:07 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | no i'm fastly mad | 17:08 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | the point is: the rule says 10 days isolation from first symptom | 17:08 |
| ublx | what do the instructions that came with the LFT say about very very feint lines? | 17:09 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | I've done it. However the LFT is not 100% negative | 17:09 |
| Guest53_ex_47 | ubix the instructions are for the first test | 17:09 |
| Raf[m] | I must not be the only one who doesn't care about being quarantined. Plenty to do to keep busy in my house | 17:09 |
| ublx | the point might become moot when the country runs out of lat flow tests. you're in the UK, right? | 17:11 |
| ublx | Raf[m]: you're not the only one, but safe to say isolation as taken a huge toll on others | 17:12 |
| Raf[m] | True | 17:14 |
| Jigsy | Nearly 80K cases today in the UK. | 17:15 |
| xx | lastshell: well, at the very least you'll have cleaner air in those rooms, with less dust and fungal spores and other stuff | 17:15 |
| xx | can't really predict what effect it will have on covid though | 17:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Wednesday 15 December 2021 Update → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/rh2h7h/wednesday_15_december_2021_update/ | 17:16 |
| ublx | i stumbled on this thread roll from back in april: https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1383566908797059078 | 17:17 |
| ublx | seems like a solid gathering of evidence about aerosol transmission | 17:18 |
| lastshell | I hope is enough for 8 humans | 17:18 |
| ublx | it's not exactly the turnkey quantitative analysis lastshell might want, though | 17:19 |
| lastshell | thanks xx ublx | 17:19 |
| xx | hence I'd still say to use it *in combination* with other measures to reduce chance of infection. Any combination of (or preferably all of) tests on the day, handwashing, masks, keeping a distance from each other, no handshakes, ... | 17:20 |
| xx | especially if older people or vulnerable ones are present | 17:20 |
| ublx | open all the windows.. hope you live in a warm country | 17:20 |
| lastshell | yeah it will be 4 above 60 | 17:20 |
| xx | 64°C should be hot enough | 17:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Portugal: +5800 cases (now 1.2 million), +11 deaths (now 18698) since a day ago — Netherlands: +13545 cases (now 3.0 million), +42 deaths (now 20712) since 23 hours ago | 17:30 |
| ublx | trouble with a christmas gathering is you can't eat wearing a mask. talking, singing, and making merry are aerosol generating events. all that filtration would reduce the viral load in the air but can hardly eliminate it with 8 people talking and making merry in an enclosed space. xmas gatherings aren't 5 minute affairs, are they? this is a risk decision you and your guests must make together. | 17:32 |
| xx | blend all the food and suck it in using a straw? | 17:33 |
| lastshell | all guest are full vaxxed mom and I had booster | 17:33 |
| xx | I'm surprised they haven't started making masks with a straw port | 17:34 |
| lastshell | to be honest we are still thinking if we are going to cancel xmas again | 17:34 |
| xx | lastshell: don't call it "cancel xmas", instead call it "transform xmas" and hold it online or over videocalls or something | 17:35 |
| xx | if that's the decision you end up making | 17:35 |
| Jigsy | Christmas is actually cancelled this year. | 17:35 |
| Jigsy | Santa knew Epstein. | 17:35 |
| Jigsy | </dark> | 17:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Today the UK had 78,610 new cases, well above any prior day in the pandemic, representing the combined effect of Delta and Omicroncoronavirus.data.gov.uk@OurWorldinData pic.twitter.com/0JBjXaXLW2 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1471154092563070981 | 17:36 |
| xx | Jigsy: well, someone had to provide the list of naughty kids..... | 17:36 |
| ublx | xx: i was just reading your comments from earlier in the day. you said (paraphrasing) "... reduce healthcare to people who are obese or who smoke ..." | 17:53 |
| ublx | intentionally culling humans is a ridiculous position to take when banning tobacco, banning addition of sugar to savoury foods, banning the use of HFCS, and investigating and regulating the use of certain endocrine disruptors out of existence would achieve a more stable and civilised result | 17:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Effect of Post Covid-19 Hypoxia on Placenta of Normal Pregnant Women: A Possible Role of Hypoxia Inducible Factor-1α. → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05158868 | 17:55 |
| xx | ublx: yeah, let me know when they actually ban tobacco, added sugar, HFCS etc. | 17:56 |
| ublx | maladaptive lifestyle 'choices' are in no small part a consequence of political corruption and profit motive | 17:57 |
| ublx | but you would preserve that iniquity by sweeping away the victims of it? | 17:57 |
| ublx | i suppose if we want to give you the benefit of the doubt, we could call that a narrowing thoughtlessness | 17:59 |
| xx | I don't believe in equality. Someone who chooses to smoke should not have the same access to lung transplants as someone who does not smoke. | 18:00 |
| xx | similarly I don't believe that someone who is vulnerable and chooses to not get the vaccine should get the same access to an ICU bed as someone who did get the vaccine, when triage has to happen | 18:01 |
| ublx | i doubt many committed smokers are offered lung transplant | 18:01 |
| xx | doctors already play god all the time, it's just swept under the rug in the interest of not causing public outrage | 18:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Transplantation of Deceased Donors With COVID-19 Into COVID-19 Negative Recipients Utilizing Casirivimab and Imdevimab Antibody Cocktail → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05157997 | 18:05 |
| xx | during med training, it's a typical question, "what do you do when you have a morbidly obese patient and a fit looking patient competing for the same hospital bed", and of course the right answer is that they both deserve the same best kind of treatment that modern medicine can offer, irrelevant of anything else, and that's the only acceptable answer. But you can see it on the doctors faces and | 18:05 |
| xx | the students do understand it what is actually being said between the lines. | 18:05 |
| ublx | triage for resources is routine and at least in some places favours maximum benefit. a patient ravished by smoking is already likely to lose to this calculus at the point of triage | 18:05 |
| ublx | deciding ahead of time to exclude classes of patients is thus needless | 18:06 |
| xx | I'd love to see research being funded into what sort of effect it would have on doctor stress levels and how much more rest they'd get (and thus perform better in general, as well as have much lower ptsd and whatever) if the hospital system wasn't constantly stressed by people who voluntarily destroyed their bodies or severely limited their bodies ability to fight off disease or recover | 18:09 |
| xx | but nobody will fund that, because such research would not pass any ethics board | 18:09 |
| xx | nobody seems to care just how hard it makes the life of medical personnel that they are overloaded with having to help people who have a lifelong refusal of trying to help themselves | 18:10 |
| xx | "doctor you are my slave, I order you to fix me!" | 18:11 |
| ublx | i don't see what ethics concerns would have to do with comparing the psychological lives of healthcare professionals in hyper urban environments to those practising with lower intensity in more healthful populations, examples of which can surely be found | 18:12 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +15421 cases (now 11.0 million), +1410817 tests (now 380.9 million) since 22 hours ago | 18:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): Brace for impact!Go home, stay home. Reports say omicron doubles every 1.6 days in UK and Delta cases still rising. Let’s get those boosters into those arms. And include the kids! No more talk. Time for action twitter.com/bnodesk/status… → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1471165827923775492 | 18:14 |
| xx | ublx: then you haven't dealt with ethics boards enough, or maybe you were just luckier | 18:15 |
| ublx | the comparison study you envisage seems eminently achievable to me by questionnaire | 18:17 |
| ublx | not sure which ethics board would object to that | 18:18 |
| ublx | "... but I have a hunch that if people knew they wouldn't receive any medical care, then they'd take measures ..." | 18:20 |
| ublx | plausible | 18:20 |
| ublx | but it is not ethical to indoctrinate a population into a consequential belief, then alter the social contract to their detriment or death | 18:21 |
| ublx | for precisely the reason of your hunch | 18:21 |
| ublx | which i suppose is why NZ is attempting to tackle smoking by preventing NEW smokers by banning sale of tobacco to young people going forward | 18:21 |
| ublx | this sidesteps the ethical crime of downgrading the long standing social contract | 18:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: UK reports highest daily cases since the pandemic began: A further 78,610 people tested positive for Covid-19, a rise of nearly 20,000 on the day before. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59673150 | 18:24 |
| xx | ublx: I'm not really in favor of banning things, I am however in favor of "you are free to do this, but expect consequences" | 18:27 |
| ublx | are you in favour of fulfilling contractual obligations, implied or signed? | 18:27 |
| xx | a very broad question where I can't give absolute answers, but I do see what you're getting at | 18:28 |
| xx | ok, say that children born from 2 years in the future will only receive the best medical care available if they take care of their own bodies, and every other child would have to pay full price. That's at least a start towards a trend of having a healthy population on this planet that is more resistant to all sorts of diseases. | 18:30 |
| xx | instead of the current climate where every gov is draggin their feet without implementing any real solution that would endanger their chances of getting reelected | 18:30 |
| ublx | change child for adult and you might have the beginnings of an argument | 18:31 |
| ublx | children are generally not considered capable of being culpable | 18:31 |
| xx | sure, I see your point | 18:31 |
| lastshell | https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/621004/ | 18:32 |
| xx | even the parents might however pay more attention to what their kids are eating and whether they are exercising or doing other problematic stuff if they knew that their kids would have to live with the consequences once they reach adulthood | 18:32 |
| ublx | i don't recall the age/number but i think NZ's tobocco measure applies to anyone born after such and such a date, causing it to apply to people passing the age 20 or so right now | 18:33 |
| xx | whereas right now I'm seeing parents not care as much, because big daddy gov will take care of the kids anyway no matter what | 18:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): Above I wrote 3mo as ideal interval in one tweet and 6-mo two tweets later. 3 or 6 mos between RNA shots 2 and 3 elicit similar peak nAbs, based on my skimming of the studies. So anything from 3 to 6 mos would work and timing could be based on when [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1471169894460715010 | 18:34 |
| ublx | but even so narrow a measure, generalised to all maladaptive behaviours, will condemn a multitude to misery, unless education and poverty-reduction measures precede the change | 18:34 |
| ublx | it's still a sort of genocide, if huge swathes of society cannot obtain foods free of adulterants like HFCS, other pointlessly added sugars, and endocrine disruptors | 18:35 |
| ublx | ie you still have to tackle the constitution of society that allows tiny minorities to gather a ludicrous proportion of wealth by purging their entropy into powerless people | 18:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +23190 cases (now 5.3 million), +129 deaths (now 135178) since a day ago | 18:38 |
| xx | well, I haven't seen a fat north korean or photos of fat people in famine-stricken areas at any point in history. Not that starving people out is a good way of going about it, but it kinda proves the calories in calories out stuff which I understand better than the psychological issue of affluence of "I'm an adult, there's nothing stopping from buying a birthday cake and eating it all by myself" | 18:40 |
| ublx | a fat north korean: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/Chairman_Kim_Jong_Un_%2848164813552%29.jpg | 18:41 |
| xx | well, yeah, besides that one | 18:41 |
| ublx | calories in-calories out is meaningless for malnourished people who can obtain enough calories but not enough nutrients | 18:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: UK records highest ever daily number of coronavirus cases: Britain on Wednesday recorded a further 78,610 laboratory-confirmed coronavirus cases, the highest daily total since the pandemic hit the country last year. → https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-12-uk-highest-daily-coronavirus-cases.html | 18:43 |
| ublx | excuse me, afk | 18:43 |
| xx | for 1.8B USD/day I could provide nutritious food for all americans, including all transportation costs etc. | 18:44 |
| ublx | i bet you couldn't | 18:44 |
| ublx | people would fight you if you tried | 18:44 |
| ublx | but please try | 18:44 |
| ublx | really afk | 18:45 |
| Arsanerit | xx: I also bet you couldn't. That's a hell of a logistical challenge. | 18:49 |
| xx | Arsanerit: for that price, I could even have it delivered straight to the door | 18:49 |
| Arsanerit | xx: that's not the point. The point is the organisation. | 18:49 |
| xx | 2000kcal/day, with all the nutrients, using already existing infrastructure, to 360M americans | 18:50 |
| Arsanerit | Do you have experience in organising the logistics of distributing something reliably to several hundred million people? | 18:50 |
| xx | yeah | 18:50 |
| Arsanerit | You do? | 18:50 |
| Arsanerit | In what way? | 18:50 |
| Arsanerit | If you really belong to the very very few people who do, I might lose my bet. | 18:50 |
| xx | transatlantic ship stuff | 18:50 |
| Arsanerit | How can a transatlantic ship distribute anything to several hundred million people? | 18:51 |
| xx | stuff like oats from canada to europe | 18:51 |
| Arsanerit | It can at best distribute it to a harbour. | 18:51 |
| Arsanerit | That's not the problem. | 18:51 |
| xx | or flax from china to europe | 18:51 |
| Arsanerit | The USA does not even have a centralised citizen's registry. | 18:51 |
| xx | or rice to USA | 18:51 |
| Arsanerit | How are you going to ensure you're getting the food to every last home in cities, prairies, and reservations? Do you include undocumented migrants? | 18:51 |
| Arsanerit | Sending a ship from one harbour to another is easy. | 18:52 |
| xx | ideally it would be goop served at whichever is the local gov building, available to whoever asks for it | 18:52 |
| Arsanerit | Sending it to a local government building is not the same as sending it to the people. It means you need the cooperation of the local governments. | 18:53 |
| xx | 2 year retention of nutrients, no need to cooling/heating | 18:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66): “There’s not much that can spread this fast and be benign to a society that’s already got full hospitals without it.” @BillHanage “I’m not sure the message has gotten across to the decision-makers, how much tougher Omicron is going to make [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1471175433261617162 | 18:53 |
| xx | there already is massive existing infrastructure for all this | 18:53 |
| xx | even simpler than vending machines | 18:53 |
| Arsanerit | There is? It's not like you can simply call up DHL and ask them to pick up 500,000 parcels from your distribution center every week. And who packages those parcels? | 18:54 |
| xx | and for those who already have an address, it could simply be sent straight to their home | 18:55 |
| Arsanerit | How many people will you need to hire to take care of the packaging? What software will you use to automate the labelling? How many regional distribution centres will you use? | 18:55 |
| xx | Arsanerit: millions of parcels are already delivered every day, and it would be a single 100kg delivery per person per year | 18:55 |
| xx | we make more fridges than that every year and move them across the world | 18:56 |
| Arsanerit | There are, but not by you. | 18:56 |
| xx | simply put, it's doable, but it would destroy the USA food economy | 18:56 |
| Arsanerit | It's doable, but it needs people with experience in logistics. | 18:56 |
| Arsanerit | One parcel per year cannot provide reliable quality nutrition. | 18:57 |
| xx | nestle has all the necessary experience already, if one wanted to do it through a private company | 18:57 |
| Arsanerit | Yes, there are companies out there that have the necessary experience and infrastructure. | 18:57 |
| Arsanerit | Your claim, however, was that /you/ could do it. | 18:57 |
| xx | Arsanerit: sure it can, quality nutrition is easy if you don't care about it tasting good | 18:57 |
| Arsanerit | If you have several billion, you could quite probably pay a company to do it for you. | 18:58 |
| xx | yes, *I* could literally do it | 18:58 |
| Arsanerit | Food that tastes bad is not quality nutrition. | 18:58 |
| Arsanerit | Literally do what? | 18:58 |
| Arsanerit | Literally organise the distribution? Literally hire people who will organise the distribution? | 18:58 |
| xx | the organization, I don't have the money | 18:58 |
| Arsanerit | On your own? Or leading a team? How large a team? | 18:58 |
| xx | 400 people for the basic stuff | 18:59 |
| xx | the rest is outsourced | 18:59 |
| xx | and it is still kept within that budget I gave above | 18:59 |
| Arsanerit | That's 6 USD per person per day. | 18:59 |
| xx | yes | 18:59 |
| xx | at 2000kcal/day | 19:00 |
| Arsanerit | I do suppose it could be done, but the organisation is not easy. | 19:00 |
| LjL | Uhm I don't make the rules in Guest's country (the guest formerly known as someone who was in the channel), and if the rule is actually after 10 days from the first test you are allowed to break quarantine, period, without other caveats, then I can't say "you can't", because patently they can. But I would say it's extremely ethically questionable to "go shopping" within 15 days of the first positive test *and when the test is actually still positive* | 19:00 |
| xx | Arsanerit: I didn't say it is easy, I am saying that infrastructure and people skills already exist | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | xx: Yes, the infrastructure and people skills exist, I agree. | 19:01 |
| xx | like, ok, I have no idea what to do if there's someone in the middle of nevada desert with no access road | 19:01 |
| xx | people will always fall through the cracks of any net | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | But I'm not convinced you personally could lead that organisation. Maybe you could, but I don't know. | 19:02 |
| Arsanerit | I certainly couldn't lead such a major operation. | 19:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: AnGes: AG0301-COVID19 → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/3/ | 19:03 |
| Arsanerit | Of course kcal/day is not the only requirement for a healthy diet. | 19:03 |
| xx | it really isn't as major as you might think, there's so much infrastructure in place to make it doable, with so many already knowleageable people already | 19:03 |
| Arsanerit | Yes, we have knowledgeable people. | 19:03 |
| xx | Arsanerit: with all the RDAs met of course, at 2000kcal/day | 19:03 |
| Arsanerit | I'm not sure if finding knowledgable people and delegating the operation to them counts as "I could do it", though :) | 19:04 |
| Arsanerit | I know such nutitrion mixes exist, that contain a healthy mix of everything a human needs. | 19:04 |
| Arsanerit | I've tried some. I don't think you'll find many people willing to eat only that for a year. | 19:05 |
| xx | people keep comparing this to the failures of food programmes in africa, without realizing that USA has so much more infrastructure to make something like this doable | 19:05 |
| Arsanerit | What failures? | 19:05 |
| Arsanerit | Food programmes in Africa save many many lives. | 19:05 |
| xx | mismanagement of money, delays in shipments, border issues, improper storage, fast deterioration of nutritional value, ... | 19:05 |
| Arsanerit | Only when there is a total breakdown of society in a severe civil war does the famine beat the food distribution programmes. | 19:05 |
| Arsanerit | And despite all that, famines really happen only in case of war or extreme government mismanagement. | 19:06 |
| xx | I mean, arguing that something like this is impossible is the same thing as arguing that a vaccine could not be developed in 1 year and distributed to 360M people on a schedule, while keeping it in controlled conditions | 19:07 |
| Arsanerit | I'm not at all arguing it's impossible. | 19:07 |
| Arsanerit | I'm arguing that I'm not convinced that /you personally/ could organise this. | 19:08 |
| Arsanerit | It's certainly possible. | 19:08 |
| xx | kinda a moot point then | 19:08 |
| Arsanerit | But I think it needs a team of experienced people to lead it. | 19:08 |
| xx | sure, I have no qualms with that | 19:08 |
| Arsanerit | The vaccine distribution was probably led by a team of experienced people. | 19:08 |
| Arsanerit | And probably didn't go entirely without problems. | 19:09 |
| xx | well obviously I'm not describing it as me being a dictator shouting out orders to every level of the puzzle | 19:09 |
| Arsanerit | But 6 USD per person per day? | 19:10 |
| xx | yes, though it is a number from 2013 when I (and a few others) looked into it | 19:10 |
| xx | I still think it is doable at that price point | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | Would people get a mixed diet including fresh products, or just a powder mix containing "all nutrients" that they would eat every day for a year? Or something else yet? | 19:10 |
| xx | no fresh products at all | 19:11 |
| xx | literally a powder mix | 19:11 |
| Arsanerit | People won't want to eat that for a year. | 19:11 |
| Arsanerit | I doubt people would call it quality food either, even if it contains all nutrients their body physically needs. | 19:11 |
| xx | both true points | 19:11 |
| Arsanerit | But distributing such a powder mix to all for 6$/day, probably it could be done. I don't think it would be particularly useful to solve any particular problem. | 19:12 |
| xx | but reassuring to know that if shit hits the fan, USA people won't starve to death | 19:12 |
| Arsanerit | If shit hits the fan, your distribution network will break down. | 19:12 |
| xx | depends on the kind of shit I guess | 19:12 |
| Arsanerit | The kind of shit that may lead to people starving to death. | 19:12 |
| Arsanerit | That would be very serious shit. | 19:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Altimmune Inc: AdCOVID → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/75/ | 19:12 |
| xx | say meat imports from outside of USA stop due to some cattle disease, but grain imports are unaffected | 19:13 |
| Arsanerit | Nobody will starve to death due to lack of meat. | 19:13 |
| Arsanerit | Has the USA ever seen a famine in which a substantial number of people died? | 19:13 |
| xx | and yet people think that | 19:13 |
| Arsanerit | People are wrong. | 19:13 |
| xx | not the USA, but the land that USA currently resides on yes | 19:14 |
| xx | (but still after 1500s) | 19:14 |
| xx | not in any living person's memory I guess | 19:14 |
| Arsanerit | Post-columbian, but pre-USA? Where was that? Mexico? French colonies? Native tribes driven away by europeans to unproductive land? | 19:15 |
| Arsanerit | I imagine those ethnic cleanings may have led to deadly famines. | 19:15 |
| Arsanerit | I classify that as civil war / severe government mismanagement, though. | 19:15 |
| LjL | I quit smoking around 10 years ago. It was easy, it only took not lighting up a cigarette anymore. And since I could do it, everyone who doesn't must be extremely weak-willed and, while they are much, much more likely than the average person to die or become chronically I'll than the average non-smoker, telling them they'd have to pay to get cured would almost certainly suddenly make them stop craving smokes. | 19:16 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: Is that sarcasm? | 19:16 |
| Arsanerit | bbl, time to cook | 19:17 |
| LjL | Before I quit smoking, I didn't think of it this way, but since I have hindsight now, I think anyone who doesn't have hindsight in advance must not have much foresight | 19:17 |
| LjL | Arsanerit: "no" | 19:17 |
| Arsanerit | "ok" | 19:17 |
| xx | "ha" | 19:17 |
| xx | but seriously, I only see some people make a meaningful change in their own life once they are forced to face some harsh reality | 19:18 |
| lastshell | I hear civil war is comming | 19:18 |
| dTal | personal 👏 responsibility 👏 is 👏 not 👏 public 👏 policy | 19:19 |
| xx | lastshell: unlikely | 19:19 |
| lastshell | maybe I should stop reading r/collapse | 19:20 |
| dTal | when you have a mass problem - a crowd of people going the wrong way, an intersection with many accidents, a public health crisis - the solution is never to say "people should be more careful" | 19:20 |
| xx | despite all the bad stuff that's happening, on a population level we're all doing much better off than before, and there isn't a significant enough large segment of population that would be willing to potentially lose what they already have | 19:21 |
| dTal | it's fine to say to yourself, "I should be more careful" | 19:21 |
| LjL | xx: yes, theoretically knowing something and practically experiencing does seem to activate some profound bias in humans. However, have you considered that the brain is also a human organ, subject to a variety of hormones and other things that can act quirky, and that while you're taking an extreme "free will" position, one might equally as easily take a "it can't be helped" position? Even when things are meaningfully changed only after a harsh reality loom, that | 19:21 |
| LjL | could be used as an argument to say people just can't help it, as they knew it rationally from before, but the right neurons only activated when elicited by active danger | 19:21 |
| LjL | So your position on provision (or payment) of healthcare is arguably akin to saying my liver gets free healthcare but my brain doesn't | 19:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Coronavirus: Boris Johnson in coronavirus booster plea as UK logs record cases → https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-plea-uk-record-daily-coronavirus-numbers/ | 19:22 |
| dTal | oh that's extremely well put LjL | 19:22 |
| xx | dTal: but it's not right to imply or even outright say "You don't need to be careful, we'll take care of you" | 19:22 |
| xx | at least in my worldview | 19:23 |
| dTal | but no one is saying that | 19:23 |
| LjL | I'd have other things to point out too. You say you are against ban but in favor of personal responsibility by "making them face the consequence". You admit ethics is not your forte but I will ask anyway: would it be reasonably, in an extreme, for the government to announce they will deny medical care to new smokers, but at the same time launch (or allow to be launched) a massive marketing campaign, possibly including advanced psychological trickery, that tries to ge | 19:23 |
| LjL | kids to take up smoking? | 19:23 |
| xx | dTal: you really don't get the feeling that that's the message that all the political parties are sending (at least at times)? | 19:24 |
| dTal | no I don't and listen to LjL | 19:24 |
| LjL | [19:22] xx: dTal: but it's not right to imply or even outright say "You don't need to be careful, we'll take care of you <- I think if nothing else, that misses the important fact that smokers or obese people are at markedly heightened risk of death and disability *anyway*, even if the healthcare system does the best it can, just because it's not magical yet. So those people are already facing dsnger | 19:26 |
| xx | LjL: tough question, and the reality of being is that the individual that is prone to be affected will lose every time, so the gov won't be able to effectively stop the marketing anyway (similarly how war on drugs in a losing battle). | 19:26 |
| LjL | Well at least we've moved to a stage in the discussion where this are tough questions, which I will take as an improvement :p | 19:27 |
| xx | I mean, it is a tough question, but it still can be answered | 19:27 |
| dTal | what it boils down to is that making people face personal consequences by witholding social services is a) cruel, and b) ineffective | 19:28 |
| dTal | you wouldn't raise a child that way | 19:29 |
| xx | I'm not concerned about 'a)', and I'm not sure about 'b)' because it hasn't been tried | 19:29 |
| dTal | you're not concerned about amplifying human suffering? | 19:30 |
| LjL | xx, your answer then being "since the reality is that those individuals will lose anyway, the answer is that i don't care and as society we should not care or even be particularly harsh on them"? | 19:30 |
| dTal | I am curious what exactly are your terminal values then, since you're happy for humans to go away and you're happy for them to suffer while they do so | 19:30 |
| xx | LjL: I'm saying we can't save everyone, and that should mean that we *shouldn't* try to save everyone, especially at a great cost to everyone else. | 19:30 |
| dTal | right now you're presenting yourself as an implacable enemy to humankind | 19:31 |
| xx | I've been called worse I guess | 19:31 |
| dTal | see there it is again. what could possibly be worse? | 19:32 |
| dTal | what do you value? | 19:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Aivita Biomedical Inc: AV-COVID-19 → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/74/ | 19:32 |
| xx | I don't know, I don't really concern myself with what I value. Guess I like free access to information to everyone. | 19:33 |
| xx | and I like to live in a world that permits such information to be scrutinized and questioned | 19:33 |
| LjL | one of the leitmotifs i'm saying: <x> I'm confused, what would this mean to you? <xx> I don't concern myself with meaning. - it's like you make some bold claims that people are likely to find bad, evil, unethical, and all those sorts of thing, but you think you can skirt it by just saying you don't concern yourself with all those very things that are the big problems with your views. | 19:34 |
| LjL | i'm seeing* | 19:35 |
| xx | well what I mean by that is that *I* don't matter | 19:36 |
| dTal | if you don't even have values, then how can anyone trust anything about you? | 19:37 |
| xx | I probably have some values, but it's not like I live on some path to spread those values or anything | 19:37 |
| xx | I'm not dedicated to anything is what I'm saying | 19:37 |
| dTal | That's truly frightening. You advance all sorts of horrible things but you can't even articulate *why* | 19:37 |
| dTal | and now you say you're not even dedicated to anything. what are you? what are you for? | 19:38 |
| xx | ffs I'm not trying to intentionally genocide the world population just because it would be fun or anything | 19:38 |
| dTal | well I should hope not | 19:38 |
| dTal | but it would be rather more reassuring if you could articulate why that's, you know, bad | 19:39 |
| dTal | especially since cruelty is apparently fine | 19:39 |
| dTal | we need to have some common ground in values to even begin a conversation about what we "should" do | 19:40 |
| xx | to say that humans are not extremely cruel species on a population/civilization level would be a lie in my opinion | 19:40 |
| dTal | is that *good*? | 19:40 |
| dTal | you can't get an "ought" from an "is" | 19:41 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +38973 cases (now 6.6 million) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +4560 cases (now 1.9 million), +29 deaths (now 30035) since 23 hours ago | 19:41 |
| xx | it means cruelty is something innate to humans, and can hardly be removed from human decision-making on large (massive) scales | 19:41 |
| dTal | if you say that we should take a particular measure, say for public health.... why? | 19:41 |
| dTal | to accomplish what? | 19:41 |
| dTal | do you see what I'm driving at? | 19:42 |
| dTal | you have to have values, that's a prerequisite for any conversation of this kind | 19:42 |
| xx | yes, I do, and I don't particularly wish to bring it up in this channel since it is a bit offtopic, but in the spirit of vhemt maybe humans shouldn't receive any medical care ever | 19:42 |
| xx | but that's a hard argument to argue | 19:42 |
| dTal | if you say you have none... well go away and come back when you do | 19:42 |
| xx | "you're born into this world, go out and have fun, if you die, you die" | 19:43 |
| dTal | I'd rather you argue that, philosophically challenging as I find it, than argue from a position of nothing at all | 19:43 |
| dTal | most people have values like "suffering is bad", "humans should not go extinct", "children need protection" etc, in some order of priority | 19:46 |
| xx | guess I differ from those values a lot if I'm for vhemt | 19:47 |
| dTal | I don't find vhemt a coherent concept | 19:47 |
| dTal | it's like advocating for "spontaneous ecosystem self-repair" | 19:48 |
| dTal | humans will not voluntarily go extinct, it's fundamentally abhorrent to most | 19:48 |
| xx | it's fundamentally abhorrent to most to get qtips stuck in the nose/butt, yet we do that many many millions of times a day | 19:53 |
| xx | humans are able to do really abhorrent things | 19:53 |
| xx | on massive scales too | 19:53 |
| spokojni[m] | We are all going to die peacefully, from massive heart or brain stroke. Don't worry guys, you won't even know it. | 19:59 |
| xx | spokojni[m]: brain aneurysm can happen at any time to anyone irrelevant of any other factor. Sleep well :) | 20:00 |
| spokojni[m] | I do | 20:00 |
| xx | so do I | 20:00 |
| spokojni[m] | Thanks to Pfizer's Zoloft, not a care in a world man. | 20:00 |
| xx | zoloft is which one? | 20:00 |
| xx | generic prozac? | 20:00 |
| spokojni[m] | It's mind altering substance | 20:00 |
| spokojni[m] | Like prozac but newer, better, stronger | 20:00 |
| lastshell | well we are going to die regadless | 20:01 |
| xx | I see, a 2nd (3rd?) gen one | 20:01 |
| spokojni[m] | Been on it for 2 years now, life's never been better tbh | 20:01 |
| lastshell | but be positive and enjoy life | 20:01 |
| xx | I've heard good stuff about sertraline, wonder if it has any effect on covid | 20:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 14 dicembre 2021: Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di contenimento e gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19. (21A07442) → http://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2021/12/15/21A07442/SG | 20:01 |
| spokojni[m] | I've seen some studies, there are few articles, look it up | 20:01 |
| spokojni[m] | And I am vaxxed and untested thanks to Pfizer, If I were not on Zoloft I would probably get vaxxed | 20:02 |
| xx | well, guess if someone has a positive outlook on life in general, it can lead to positive outcomes of covid, rather than if one just gives up | 20:02 |
| xx | fun stuff indeed https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(21)00448-4/fulltext | 20:04 |
| LjL | spokojni[m], you are unvaccinated (i know that's what you meant since you said it before) "because of taking Zoloft"? | 20:04 |
| xx | though I imagine the standard issue still applies - the first thing that psychodrugs fix is lack of willpower, which might be the thing that actually gives the person enough will to commit suicie | 20:05 |
| spokojni[m] | Yeah, I don't care about covid, it's just too much birocracy for me and insisting on something that I don't want to take. | 20:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Algeria: +245 cases (now 213533), +10 deaths (now 6165) since 21 hours ago — Morocco: +221 cases (now 951984), +12349 tests (now 10.6 million) since 23 hours ago | 20:06 |
| lastshell | the democratic hoax :P | 20:06 |
| LjL | spokojni[m], and that has to do with Zoloft, what? | 20:06 |
| spokojni[m] | Yeah I was very anxious person before Zoloft, it changed my personality to what I prefer now. | 20:07 |
| lastshell | exercise do the same thing that Zolof IMHO | 20:07 |
| spokojni[m] | I would probably have some health anxiety and it would be easier to get me persuaded to get vaccinated | 20:07 |
| spokojni[m] | lastshell maybe a little bit | 20:08 |
| LjL | spokojni[m], but getting the vaccine still gives you anxiety about its effects on your health? or why else not take it? | 20:09 |
| xx | you could get another stamp for your pfizer loyalty card if you get a vax from them :) | 20:09 |
| lastshell | xx XD | 20:09 |
| spokojni[m] | It doens't give me anxiety, I can't be arsed with birocracy and insisting to get it is annoying me. | 20:09 |
| dTal | bureaucracy | 20:10 |
| spokojni[m] | Yeah | 20:10 |
| dTal | birocracy is rule by ballpoint pens | 20:10 |
| dTal | ...oddly, actually something of a synonym for bureaucracy | 20:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): Obrigado, um dos meus segredos é que trabalho com epidémias com FioCruz e Ministério da Saúde do Brasil (Zika, Dengue, Chikungunya, Febre Amarela) então estavámos bem treinados pra responder pra COVID. A diferença da Àfrica do Sul pro Brasil é que [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1471194472880951302 | 20:11 |
| spokojni[m] | Basically I don't listen to politicians medical advices. | 20:11 |
| xx | dTal: I spell beauty as biuti :p | 20:12 |
| dTal | well that just confirms my accumulated opinion of you as a lawless agent of chaos :p | 20:12 |
| xx | heh | 20:12 |
| xx | reading that SSRI thing, I wonder if an elevated level of serotonin in cells would have something to do with mitigating the cytokine storm at the very least | 20:15 |
| xx | cells lining the lungs in general don't have much of it, so any noticeable increase could have large effects | 20:16 |
| xx | I've read about some of the cocktail mixes some hospitals give to patients almost in desperation, so it would not surprise me if this was a component in some hospital somewhere | 20:17 |
| xx | actually yeah, various psychoactive substances are routinely administered in the most severe cases | 20:19 |
| LjL | i'd like to see some discussion about that SSRI study but i've only found some not-very-interesting Reddit bantering on r/askscience when i googled it | 20:22 |
| xx | there are a few weird bits in it, but that's probably because I haven't seen other similar stuff elsewhere | 20:22 |
| xx | "84 participants stopped fluvoxamine and 64 participants stopped placebo owing to issues of tolerability" | 20:22 |
| xx | not tolerating placebo at that level? | 20:23 |
| xx | that must just be an effect of not liking pills in general, would be my reaction | 20:23 |
| LjL | well, they're patients who *have COVID* anyway | 20:23 |
| LjL | you're not just giving the SSRI to someone with, say, mild depression | 20:23 |
| LjL | so i guess they may easily attribute some symptoms of COVID to whatever they're being given | 20:24 |
| dTal | that's why we give placebos | 20:26 |
| dTal | that's not weird, that's literally what they're for | 20:26 |
| xx | dTal: I mean that having 64 out of 1500 participant had to cease taking the placebo feels like a weirdly high number | 20:28 |
| xx | but yeah, that might just have to do with having covid already, which definitely affects this | 20:28 |
| dTal | "I feel like shit and that pill ain't helping, stop giving it to me" | 20:29 |
| dTal | but sure, it's intruiging to consider | 20:30 |
| xx | I don't have the number I'm mentally comparing it to, but for cancer patients there is proportionally much lower number of people asking to be taken off placebo | 20:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Djibouti: +12 cases (now 13526), +620 tests (now 252017) since 3 days ago | 20:30 |
| xx | though I guess it's all to do with just not having high enough numbers in the study, as always | 20:31 |
| LjL | i do think it seems like a high dropout rate compared to "the average study" but i also don't quite have average numbers in mind | 20:33 |
| xx | brazil is the most populous country of the countries with the highest number of deaths/1M pop, so it also might have something to do with it | 20:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Omicron found to grow 70 times faster than Delta in bronchial tissue → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rh73lx/omicron_found_to_grow_70_times_faster_than_delta/ | 20:40 |
| LjL | oh, i was about to post that *deletes message* | 20:41 |
| LjL | i'll post this comment from it then instead https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rh73lx/omicron_found_to_grow_70_times_faster_than_delta/hoomf72/ | 20:41 |
| LjL | oh lord, just when you think the guardian article linked to by reddit linked to the actual study, nope, turns out it links about further (though more first-party) news on the study https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection which doesn't link to the study | 20:43 |
| xx | bronchial tissue? Is that one even less accessible to the immune system than lung tissue? | 20:43 |
| sdfgsdfg | https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-16/omicron-spread-leads-to-uk-record-78000-covid-cases/100704222 | 20:46 |
| sdfgsdfg | .title | 20:46 |
| Brainstorm | sdfgsdfg: From www.abc.net.au: Omicron spread leads to UK record of 78,610 COVID-19 cases in single day - ABC News | 20:46 |
| * sdfgsdfg screams like homer simpson | 20:46 | |
| sdfgsdfg | sydney's premier daddy perrotett was begging the media to shift the focus from cases to ICU details | 20:47 |
| xx | interesting how UK is so much higher than other countries | 20:48 |
| xx | 2x or 3x the next one? | 20:49 |
| LjL | news from the future! | 20:49 |
| xx | LjL: you think we'll shortly see a similar rise everywhere? | 20:50 |
| xx | like, to such high numbers? | 20:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Another new study shows "decrease in vaccine effectiveness accelerated after month 4 after full vaccination" in US Veterans, age 65+, due to both time of waning and rise of Delta @JAMANetworkOpen jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman… US policy to change to boost at [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1471204582051041280 | 20:50 |
| ublx | more likely we'll shortly reveal a similar rise everywhere | 20:51 |
| ublx | sdfgsdfg: 'daddy perrotett'? | 20:51 |
| ublx | didn't we talk about this? | 20:51 |
| sdfgsdfg | thats what some media lady was calling him probably because he has more than 6 kids | 20:51 |
| xx | pity we still don't have good enough data reporting to split the graphs for every country on vaxxed/unvaxxed, maybe with parameters such as number of doses and timings | 20:55 |
| xx | instead it's still something that needs to be hunted down on the regional country websites, and even then only some countries have that data publicly available | 20:55 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +27140 cases (now 5.4 million), +77 deaths (now 88619) since a day ago — Cabo Verde: +18 cases (now 38527) since 23 hours ago | 21:02 |
| LjL | xx, i think so, yes | 21:09 |
| LjL | not sure how shortly | 21:09 |
| xx | what I wish for xmas is for people to finally kicking the habit of licking handrails and doorknobs | 21:19 |
| xx | *kick | 21:19 |
| Arsanerit | When can I responsibly travel across the Atlantic Ocean by freighter, from a pandemic point of view? | 21:20 |
| xx | Arsanerit: if you're willing to get in a box I can get you on the next boat | 21:24 |
| Arsanerit | xx: I'm willing to get into a cabin booked via https://www.langsamreisen.de/frachtschiffreisen/europa-nord-mittelamerika/deutschland-frankreich-usa/ , but it feels irresponsible and egoistical to do so during the coronavirus pandemic. | 21:24 |
| dTal | xx: I advocate guerilla application of dish soap to all public surfaces | 21:26 |
| dTal | it kills covid, tastes vile, and is non toxic! | 21:27 |
| xx | "ewwwww, that's soap, I haven't touched that stuff since kindergarten" would be most people's reaction based on what I've seen them do about personal hygiene | 21:27 |
| xx | it tastes fine, just can lead to mouth ulcers if you chew on it too often | 21:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: A study of the impact of national face mask laws on Covid-19 mortality in 44 countries with a combined population of nearly a billion people found that—over time—the increase in Covid-19 related deaths was significantly slower in countries [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/rh7wdv/a_study_of_the_impact_of_national_face_mask_laws/ | 21:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +65714 cases (now 8.5 million), +151 deaths (now 121968) since 20 hours ago — Dem. Rep. Congo: +2081 cases (now 61932) since 4 days ago — Eswatini: +1469 cases (now 56200), +1768 tests (now 408820) since 23 hours ago — Burundi: +257 cases (now 21143) since 2 days ago | 21:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Facing new COVID wave, staff at a French hospital say: 'We're exhausted' → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rh8a6v/facing_new_covid_wave_staff_at_a_french_hospital/ | 21:39 |
| xx | LjL: I guess this is how shortly... | 21:41 |
| LjL | xx, France has terrible data though | 21:45 |
| LjL | have the raw, unsmoothed experience http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom;France;Spain;Italy;Sweden&cumulative=no&leftTrim=600&legacy=no | 21:45 |
| LjL | we have weekly trends. they have weekly *binary* trends | 21:45 |
| xx | thanks, looks like EU can't even agree on a unified reporting style for each constituent country | 21:46 |
| LjL | as if the EU works by agreement! | 21:46 |
| Arsanerit | Why would the EU agree on something that is not a EU responsibility? | 21:47 |
| xx | feels like something that would be in the interest of every EU citizen | 21:47 |
| xx | but I guess that's not the job of the EU anymore | 21:47 |
| LjL | the EU has specific areas of responsibility though, it isn't just the decider of "anything useful" | 21:48 |
| LjL | but anyway it's not like US data are any better if you look at various member states | 21:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virology.ws: TWiV 841: Unmasking immunity: TWiV provides an update on immunity to Omicron, results of a randomized controlled trial of face masks, and a study of correlates of protection against respiratory syncytial virus infection in the upper and lower respiratory tract of nonhuman primates. Click [... want %more?] → https://www.virology.ws/2021/12/15/twiv-841-unmasking-immunity/ | 21:49 |
| Arsanerit | There are also useful things that I could do but that I don't do. | 21:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kenya: +799 cases (now 257614), +1 deaths (now 5350), +7529 tests (now 2.9 million) since a day ago — Kuwait: +57 cases (now 413847), +19155 tests (now 5.6 million) since 22 hours ago | 22:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: COVID mRNA vaccines lose strength against Delta over time: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Dec 15, 2021 One study finds that 2 doses of Moderna were highly effective against all variants, but Delta protection waned. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/12/covid-mrna-vaccines-lose-strength-against-delta-over-time | 22:08 |
| LjL | Brainstorm, uh no shit? | 22:12 |
| xx | did Brainstorm do something wrong? | 22:12 |
| Arsanerit | stating the obvious? | 22:15 |
| LjL | yeah it's just a bit of obvious although it appears they looked very specifically into which variants did what | 22:16 |
| LjL | exclusively with Moderna | 22:16 |
| LjL | and i guess the fact that "Waning was less pronounced for non-delta variants" had not been something that was explicitly stated before | 22:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): NYTimes shows the CDC made an error they should have checked for in their COVID19 test design (primers that prime off each other). A competent grad student or postdoc would have noticed. You don't need CDC training, just good experimental [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1471227093274923009 | 22:17 |
| LjL | it was, you know, quite likely, given *we need a goddam multivalent vaccine* and can't just keep using the same one in the fact of a ton of changing variants | 22:17 |
| LjL | but i guess it's good they actually looked and confirmed it | 22:17 |
| Arsanerit | when will get a multivalent vaccine? | 22:18 |
| xx | probably when we get the one that's using a weakened coronavirus | 22:21 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, i don't know, both Moderna and BioNTech/Pfizer (groan) have been working on them for many months now | 22:23 |
| Arsanerit | why groan? | 22:23 |
| LjL | Moderna has a Beta vaccine under trial, and Pfizer should have a Delta one | 22:23 |
| LjL | nevermind the groan | 22:23 |
| Arsanerit | Does Beta still exist? | 22:23 |
| LjL | i don't really know when those trials are slated to end | 22:23 |
| LjL | Beta has probably been swamped out by Omicron in South Africa now | 22:23 |
| Arsanerit | Are those trials too slow to be of any use? | 22:23 |
| LjL | but it doesn't really matter | 22:23 |
| LjL | the variants tend to have many of the same mutations, in different mixes | 22:23 |
| Arsanerit | Would a delta vaccine be any better than the original vaccine when omicron dominates? | 22:23 |
| LjL | a multivalent vaccine would probably help a lot even if it isn't against the *current* variant, which would be... impossible, anyway | 22:24 |
| LjL | i do think so | 22:24 |
| dTal | Omicron should make us rethink the strategy of chasing variants | 22:33 |
| dTal | this variant is an offshoot of an early lineage - a delta-specific vaccine would be *less* effective than the one targeting OG covid | 22:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +55533 cases (now 6.7 million), +511 deaths (now 107675) since 23 hours ago — India: +6265 cases (now 34.7 million), +326 deaths (now 476214) since 22 hours ago — Canada: +5619 cases (now 1.9 million), +23 deaths (now 30037) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +13531 cases (now 3.0 million) since 20 hours ago | 22:35 |
| dTal | it sure would be nice to encode *all* extant variants into a vaccine | 22:35 |
| dTal | but if you have to pick just one - original covid is a good one | 22:35 |
| xx | wouldn't SARS/MERS or the other coronaviruses be decent too perhaps? | 22:36 |
| xx | if it targetted whatever is common to all coronaviruses | 22:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Live blog: European Council summit: Fears of new war in Ukraine and a resurgent coronavirus are front of mind as EU leaders gather in Brussels. → https://www.politico.eu/article/live-blog-european-council-eu-summit-ukraine-coronavirus-defense-energy/ | 22:36 |
| xx | wait what? new war in ukraine? | 22:37 |
| dTal | https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/the-omicron-question | 22:39 |
| dTal | just look at those graphs | 22:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A new report on Omicron's potency for inhibiting vaccine-induced, infection-induced, and monoclonal Ab (mAb) mediated virus neutralization. Only Sotrovimab was effective as a mAb) medrxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/ZeELwqvNbR → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1471233251133902848 | 22:46 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Malawi: +318 cases (now 62933) since 21 hours ago — Monaco: +63 cases (now 4223) since 23 hours ago — Bahrain: +53 cases (now 278202), +49580 tests (now 7.7 million) since 23 hours ago — Curacao: +39 cases (now 17657), +1 deaths (now 183) since 20 hours ago | 23:00 |
| lastshell | dTal those are scary graphs | 23:01 |
| darsie | third shot now after 5 months or wait another month? | 23:02 |
| lastshell | take the shot darsie (I'm not a medial advisor) | 23:02 |
| darsie | medial? | 23:02 |
| lastshell | *medical | 23:03 |
| darsie | ok | 23:03 |
| lastshell | but I know people in uk taking the booster before 6 months | 23:03 |
| lastshell | because bojo pushing | 23:03 |
| darsie | I'm in Austria. Lockdown, high numbers going down. | 23:03 |
| lastshell | darise you guys have omicron ? | 23:04 |
| darsie | Bicycle grocery delivery. | 23:04 |
| darsie | not much, yet. | 23:04 |
| lastshell | I guess is safe to wait until 6 months | 23:04 |
| darsie | k | 23:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The North American @Novavax vaccine randomized, placebo-controlled trial in ~30,000 participants is published in @NEJM today with 90% efficacy vs symptomatic infections nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…(most breakthroughs were Alpha; trial predated Delta, Omicron) [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1471238643264151553 | 23:05 |
| dTal | darsie: I would say grab that booster | 23:10 |
| darsie | ok :) | 23:10 |
| dTal | omicron is growing *very* quickly | 23:10 |
| darsie | mhm | 23:11 |
| darsie | I live in a 6 ppl shared flat. | 23:11 |
| dTal | oof | 23:11 |
| dTal | make them all get the booster lol | 23:11 |
| lastshell | with booster you protect 70% againt's omicron | 23:13 |
| darsie | Is it a bad idea to get it just before an 8h grocery bicycle delivery tour? | 23:14 |
| dTal | on the basis of how I'm feeling right now, yes | 23:14 |
| darsie | k | 23:14 |
| dTal | you're gonna want to take it easy for a day or two | 23:14 |
| dTal | but it's a booster, you've had two jabs already I assume? | 23:15 |
| darsie | yeah | 23:15 |
| darsie | 2x Moderna | 23:15 |
| dTal | reactions? | 23:15 |
| darsie | I don't remember well :). | 23:16 |
| darsie | There was something, yes. | 23:16 |
| darsie | not wild | 23:16 |
| lastshell | dTal what is your take about vaccines targeting variants ? | 23:17 |
| minthos | darsie: maybe plan for a slower than usual pace | 23:24 |
| darsie | I'll get it after my delivery shift. | 23:25 |
| minthos | cool | 23:25 |
| darsie | Don't want to lag behind and get stress. | 23:26 |
| dTal | lastshell: what about it? | 23:27 |
| lastshell | dTal you thing if covid continues will be wise to target more agressive variants ? | 23:28 |
| minthos | they already are, they estimate about 100 days to update the vaccine for a new variant | 23:30 |
| minthos | of course manufacturing and distribution is another issue entirely | 23:31 |
| LjL | dTal: extremely interesting article overall, but I just reached "There’s also another wild card here. Long COVID affects about 2-3% of those infected with COVID" and I'm like, wut, wasn't that much higher by any account? | 23:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Covid vaccines should be digital: no need to purify proteins, inactivate the virus; just deliver the digital codescience.org/doi/10.1126/sc… @ScienceTM pic.twitter.com/50e1b57qTB → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1471244889450975236 | 23:33 |
| LjL | Topol going de-facto | 23:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Yes, a universal coronavirus vaccine is urgently neededToday @NEJM. We can and must do this. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10… Variant-proof, cover all sarbecoviruses ++ twitter.com/EricTopol/stat… pic.twitter.com/IkTT66ANxj → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1471246730779713536 | 23:43 |
| LjL | Well I shouldn't have read that guy's article linked from the long covid claim | 23:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): The 2020s saw the introduction of the coded vaccines; Vaccine delivery no longer depends on making an attenuated virus or production of dead-virus and trying best adjuvant combinations.science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1471250843290816517 | 23:52 |
| dTal | why? | 23:57 |
| dTal | scary? | 23:58 |
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