libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2021-12-19

oerheks*do not lick these elevator buttons*00:00
de-factoi would not even go inside an elevator00:01
de-factohow would i know who coughed into that tiny cabin half an hour before i entered it?00:01
oerheksI still have no clue how it transmits, on what surfaces, or does it act like a mushroom..00:01
oerheksfloating on a string..00:01
oerheksde-facto, 2 elevators here, for 100 residents...00:02
de-factoaerosol spread, like smoke00:02
oerheksand i have to walk the dog 4-5x day00:02
de-factoimagine someone smokes a cigarette, would you be able to smell it? if the answer is yes then the smoke migrated from the smokers lung inside your nose, hence potentially if that was aerosol (that cant be smelled) it would have been able to infect you00:03
oerheks.. on the floor .. walk it into your clean home..00:03
ublxit's.. in the air00:04
ublxhow often do you breath your floor in?00:04
de-factoi would think that most infections happen via aerosol, then second most via droplets (people spitting into each others faces when talking to each other), and only a bit via surfaces (where it could stay infectious for days to weeks depending on conditions and contamination dose)00:05
de-factopeak may be in mid of Jan in UK00:10
dTaloerheks: I'd get a filtering respirator if I were you00:10
oerheksdTal,  i have those, and push buttons with my house-key00:11
oerheksbump doors with my behind00:11
dTalexcellent, you sound like you have your shit together00:11
oerheksI wish the other 99 residents did the same..00:12
BrainstormUpdates for Uruguay: +356 cases (now 404255), +3 deaths (now 6153), +9825 tests (now 4.3 million) since 23 hours ago — Rwanda: +230 cases (now 101413) since 22 hours ago00:15
de-factoi wonder how severe Omicron will become in the non-vaccinated naive cohorts00:22
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: UK records more than 90,000 Covid cases for second day in a row → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rjj0ic/covid_uk_records_more_than_90000_covid_cases_for/00:23
oerhekssofar, looking at the stats in south africa, i fear the next one, pi00:23
sdfgsdfgI also live in a more than 100 resident tower with 3 lifts, but I'm more scared about the grocery shopping than this. Hepa filters are reliable but trying to sterilize some lemons is not00:23
sdfgsdfgwe'd need pressurized air spaces to disinfect everything on arrival00:24
oerheksopen vegetables i leave in the shelve..00:24
oerheksfrozen food is oke00:24
oerheks.. and much cheaper now :-D00:24
de-factoIn Germany we have 24.1M people over 60 year old, only 52.6% are boosted (11.4M not boosted), 86.9% is double vaccinated (3.16M NOT vaccinated and over 60)00:26
de-factothis MAY become a disaster for them00:26
oerheksdutch pension funds are high in the green again.. in 2019 they were in the red.00:27
ublxi'd say a lemon is an easy thing to sterilise. its skin doesn't seem likely to admit soapy water00:27
ublxbut the most convenient thing, space permitting, seems to be cycling groceries so that they can lie undisturbed for a couple of days00:28
de-factoi dont think that suffices as it can stay infectious for many days on surfaces00:29
de-factobut i also think the risk from that is pretty low (contaminated foods)00:30
ublxde-facto: those results were theoretical, were they not? not exactly "no evidence", but not demonstration of functional viability either00:30
de-factoi would worry more about proximity to people00:30
de-factothey measured it in a lab long time ago, artificially controlled environment, but were able to infect cell cultures after weeks00:31
de-factoi think it was clean shiny surfaces in the dark though00:31
ublxvarious surfaces00:31
ublxstill theoretical00:31
ublxthey didn't exactly swab surfaces then stick swabs in volunteer nostrils00:32
de-factoi think the contamination on food is pretty low, at least here all people in supermarket wear masks and those that dont get thrown out violently00:32
ublxyeah00:32
de-factoif you really are worried maybe cook the vegetables?00:33
ublxfairly confident you could cook with a basket of groceries freshly delivered and be just fine if you didn't touch your face without washing your hands00:33
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD  (@michaelzlin): 2020.09 (that's 2020, should have put it earlier): Announcing the first SARSCoV2 protease inhibitor with a alkylated proline P2 group for preorganization, based on the HCV protease inhibitor boceprevir (later seen in Pfizer's PF-07321332 = [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/147234704349439181300:33
de-factoactually it will have a certain half life under a given condition, hence it depends on initial contamination dose how long it will take until it decayed away00:34
ublxthe frozen food angle is an interesting one, given that freezers are used to preserve microbes00:34
ublxpresumably what was meant was that frozen food packaging is easier to sanitise than lettuce00:34
de-factoso if the contamination dose is very low, it indeed could suffice to let it just stay for a few days until the small potential contamination could have decayed00:35
de-factomay change with omicron when fewer virions may suffice already to kickstart an infection00:35
ublxhmm00:35
de-facto.title https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12985-020-01418-700:36
Brainstormde-facto: From virologyj.biomedcentral.com: The effect of temperature on persistence of SARS-CoV-2 on common surfaces | Virology Journal | Full Text00:36
de-factonot sure there probably are newer papers about it, but i think its not a relevant part of transmissions, so i did not really read up on it00:36
de-facto(and yes i do sanitize my hands, prevent touching my face, and do wash my hands with warm water and soap once i come home)00:37
BrainstormUpdates for UAE: +266 cases (now 743852), +235367 tests (now 106.5 million) since a day ago — Netherlands: +14670 cases (now 3.0 million) since 20 hours ago — Canada: +6624 cases (now 1.9 million) since 23 hours ago00:40
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Guests urged to be vaccinated at anti-vaxxer Robert F Kennedy Jr’s party → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rjjlww/guests_urged_to_be_vaccinated_at_antivaxxer/00:52
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A reporter risked her life to show the world Covid in Wuhan. Now she may not survive jail. → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rjjm13/a_reporter_risked_her_life_to_show_the_world/01:01
BrainstormUpdates for Kenya: +2169 cases (now 262335), +9428 tests (now 2.9 million) since a day ago01:11
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): What defines an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine? A review of the challenges assessing the clinical efficacy of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 thelancet.com/article/S1473-… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/147235988730900480701:20
minthosclearly the safe option is to grow your own vegetables so they get sterilized by sunlight while they grow01:25
minthosgive me a solarpunk future please01:26
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +89190 cases (now 11.3 million) since 21 hours ago01:42
BrainstormUpdates for Madagascar: +1501 cases (now 47295), +16 deaths (now 996), +16736 tests (now 307183) since 7 days ago02:13
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Antibody Responses to 3rd Dose mRNA Vaccines in Nursing Home and Assisted Living Residents → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rjkx66/antibody_responses_to_3rd_dose_mrna_vaccines_in/02:17
Trippy72894against omicron, how does sinovac stack up against other vaccines?02:52
LjLi'm almost positive no one has a clue02:55
Trippy72894:)02:55
Trippy72894and now, where's all this headed? What's all this going to look like in 3 years, better or worse?02:56
Trippy72894are we screwed, it will pass, or ongoing crap, pardon the swear.02:56
Trippy72894will vaccines get better or stop working against whatever is going around?02:58
LjLthe EU has triggered a clause with their Pfizer/BNT contract that requires them to develop an Omicron-specific vaccine within 100 days03:00
oerhekslet me jump 10 years in the future, brb03:00
LjLand they can totally do that (they already have one for Delta)... the problem, and the thing that takes time, is a trial03:00
Trippy72894interesting indeed03:01
oerheksback, nope, we should have shutdown airports, as de-facto suggested03:01
Trippy72894but doesn't it seem like omicron will just get everywhere no matter what?03:02
Trippy72894isn't it just a matter of time till we all get it?03:02
minthosthe virus isn't magical03:03
minthosif humans stop mingling the virus can't infect anyone (well, except animals..)03:04
Trippy72894my friend says "no vaccine, natural immunity from getting and and surviving is better." to which I replied "vaccine won't stop it, but make it less likely you get sick, and if you do get it while vaccinated, you will get natural immunity also"03:04
minthosbut it takes a lot more effort to stop omicron than the previous variants03:04
Trippy72894is that right?03:04
Trippy72894minthos good point03:04
minthosthe side effects from the vaccine are considerably less than the side effects from the virus03:05
Trippy72894but that is neither here nor there03:05
minthosit is though, it's the reason vaccines exist03:05
oerheksthe horror starts when testing is no longer free :-(03:06
Trippy72894if vaccinated and you get covid, you still get immunity from your defenses and the ones the vaccine provided, right?03:06
Trippy72894am i getting that wrong?03:06
oerheksyou would end up with antibodies, yes.03:06
LjLTrippy72894, it may just be a matter of time until we get it, but how much time, and what we get, matter03:06
LjLhow much time = will hospitals be swamped with huge waves, or will it occur over time03:06
Trippy72894oerheks and LjL understood03:07
Trippy72894that makes sense03:07
LjLwhat we get = how bad will be the variant, and what kind of immunity will we have03:07
minthosthe point of vaccines is to teach the body to make the right antibodies so when the real virus gets to you your body can stop it faster03:07
LjLOmicron seems "very exponential", but the previous waves also seemed very exponential, yet they didn't get everyone. they did get quite a few people, but then they stopped about as quickly as they had started03:07
Trippy72894fair enough. i'm trying to convince my friend in holland not to trust only two people who "make sense", one of whom is an entrepreneur03:07
LjLi'm not sure why that happens, but i think that will happen with Omicron too, as it seems to be happening in South Africa03:07
Trippy72894you mean in S africa it's vanishing?03:08
Trippy72894that's encouraging03:08
LjLnot vanishing, but certainly going down03:08
Trippy72894is that to do with omicron reinfection?03:08
Trippy72894like it's so fast that it will go before reinfecting or something?03:08
LjLno03:08
LjLOmicron could potentially reinfect everybody, as it seems to have a high potential for reinfection03:09
oerheksspanish flu (originated in Boston) disappeared the 2nd year..03:09
LjLbut it likely hasn't infected everybody yet, so it's not simply out of hosts03:09
Trippy72894i see03:09
Trippy72894ok03:09
LjLlike i said i don't quite know why this happens. i've heard various hypotheses but i'm not comfortable saying any of them is true03:09
Trippy72894is it running out of hosts in s africa?03:09
LjLit already has03:09
LjL"it" being SARS-COV-2, not Omicron per se03:09
LjLthere's more than 90% estimated immunity in South Africa03:10
Trippy72894because everone recently got it right, and still have resistance to reinfection?03:10
LjLOmicron possibly arose *because* most people were immune to prior variants (not a certainty, but possible)03:10
Trippy72894wow 90 percent.03:10
Trippy72894interesting03:10
LjLlook at the wave https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Africa&cumulative=no&legacy=no03:10
Trippy72894so that's good news for earth?03:10
Trippy72894checking....03:10
LjLeach wave in South Africa has been taller03:10
LjLand this one has happened much faster03:10
LjLbut it's also going down fast03:10
Trippy72894very very interesting. you can sort of see where it's going03:11
LjLyou can see it better if you hit "Smooth"03:11
Trippy72894doing....03:11
LjLbut i've left it un-hit because sometimes it's deceiving at the end of the graph03:11
LjLbut this time it looks right to me03:11
Trippy72894ah yes, i see it03:11
Trippy72894so will omicron spawn new variants?03:12
Trippy72894predictions for next few years? will this $#%#$$%#%ing thing end?03:12
minthosyes03:12
minthosno03:12
Trippy72894please switch those around to no then yes03:13
Trippy72894:)03:13
LjLi'm afraid i concur with "yes" and "no"03:13
oerheksTrippy72894, nostradamus said 3 x 3 x 3 = 27 years03:13
Trippy72894ahhhh crap03:13
minthosI thik we will get pretty good vaccines and learn to live with the virus03:13
LjLbut that doesn't necessarily mean the end of the world03:13
minthosbut it will take a while03:13
Trippy72894nostradamus said a lot that was wrong, most things in fact03:13
oerheks25 to go03:13
Trippy72894ok that's encouraging03:13
Trippy72894could there be a magic bullet vaccine?03:14
minthosyes03:14
minthosbut not yet03:14
LjLTrippy72894, look up universal vaccine / pancoronavirus vaccine / pan-sarbecovirus vaccine03:14
Trippy72894likelihood?03:14
Trippy72894looking up....03:14
minthosI'm not qualified to estimate that03:14
LjLlikelihood pretty decent if governments stop just paying Pfizer for whatever they have, and fund development instead03:14
Trippy72894qualified to guess?03:15
minthospretty good I think..03:15
de-factobtw IF we assume for a moment that Omicron will reach almost everyone and that in a very short amount if time, even if the price is high in terms of deaths and hospitalizations, would that mean that a lot of immunity is created, simultaneously, globally, hence make it extra difficult for whatever may come after Omicron?03:15
Trippy72894corporations will be the death of us all. been saying that for years03:15
lastshellwhere is john titor when we need it03:15
LjLde-facto, but Omicron had it extra easy even though it came right after Delta...03:15
Trippy72894de-facto, good03:15
LjLwhy can't the next one do the same?03:15
LjLTrippy72894, corporations only dictate the rules to an extent. governments can still say "no, that's not what we want in the longer term". but governments more often think in the shorter term.03:16
lastshellthe media is still telling that omicron is mild03:16
de-factowell good point, so should we start asking what kind of immunity is created my getting infected with Omicron, for the majority or cases (e.g. with the most common pre-existing immune conditions, such as vaccinations or Delta)?03:16
de-factodo we even know if recovery from Omicron blocks the previous variants?03:17
de-factoor mutants based on them?03:17
Trippy72894well corporations control governments in some places03:17
Trippy72894those are good questions, de-facto03:17
LjLde-facto, maybe we'll be more strongly protected once we've been infected by *two* somewhat different variants03:17
LjLlastshell, the media may be "right". and by "right" i mean wrong because they had no *good* reason to blabber about it being milder... but i think it could be milder after all03:18
LjLmaybe not milder per se, but milder in a mostly-immune population03:18
lastshellI hope the media is right (just this time)03:18
LjLsouth africa shows that. now the next question is, will the UK show the same, with a different type of immunity mostly03:18
dTalde-facto: not just "whatever may comee after omicron"03:19
dTalmaybe it's so infectious that we really can reach a superior herd immunity03:19
dTalas you say it infects everyone simulaneously03:20
de-factoit certainly may infect people faster, globally,  than vaccination campaigns could do03:20
lastshellI want to come one day to this channela and scream pandemic is over and run naked on the streets03:20
lastshellsome day03:21
de-factothe price may be many deaths though03:21
lastshellI don't want more deaths03:21
Trippy72894could china's zero covid policy result in a more vulnerable population?03:21
dTalI am scared for my parents03:21
lastshellsame dTal03:22
de-factoand the question LjL asked is very relevant: Why can Omicron infect Delta recovered so easy and will this become less likely when our immune systems get re-challenged with more diversity03:22
lastshellbut omicron is the evolution of delta ?03:23
LjLde-facto, Trippy72894: one reason why i think the answer may be "yes" is this paper https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)01062-X03:23
de-factoe.g. for a potential successor to Omicron, will this be significantly different because Omicron was the second or third infection, e.g. broadening the immunity?03:23
Trippy72894checking...03:24
LjLlastshell, Omicron may not actually be evolved from Delta for all we know03:24
oerheksthe Omicron variant showed that it had more mutations than the Delta03:25
de-factoi mean maybe if the immune system gets challenged with two variants of very different surfaces, would it promote those antibodies that bind to conserved regions, e.g. those that the virus could not easily change without some significant fitness loss?03:25
Trippy72894i cannot understand the https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)01062-X article03:26
Trippy72894is there a lay-person's explanation?03:26
lastshellWelcome to my world Trippy7289403:26
Trippy72894:)03:26
dTalLjL: I thought that Omicron emphatically wasn't evolved from Delta03:26
lastshellbut try to read the paper takes time03:26
Trippy72894afk. will check back. love this channel. thanks all!03:27
dTalhttps://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff42832f5-4311-4322-9457-6b35c308856a_1600x1069.png03:27
LjLTrippy72894, "at least in mice, when you show the immune system different bits of things that look like SARS-COV-2 but aren't quite it, as long as there is variety, the immune system learns to react to all of them, including SARS-COV-2"03:27
de-factodTal, it looks very remotely similar to Alpha but highly mutated03:27
LjLdTal, i can't display that url03:27
de-factoe.g. it also got those s-gene droupouts at del6970 or what was it?03:27
de-factoalso it aquired the ability to bind to mouse ACE2, surprisingly03:28
Trippy72894LjL, so then in China, people get vaccines and that's the bits of things, and so immunity okay, right?03:28
LjLdTal, i don't say things emphatically unless i'm myself very sure of them, or very fuming mad about the topic :P03:28
LjLTrippy72894, no03:28
Trippy72894oh03:28
LjLtheir vaccines are not "bits of things" any more than ours are03:28
LjLyou need differential bits03:29
LjLyou need to show the immune system *different* spike proteins03:29
dTalhttps://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f42832f5-4311-4322-9457-6b35c308856a_1600x1069.png03:29
dTalhow about this URL03:29
Trippy72894so you're better of in the West vaccinated and getting all the variants that come along?03:29
LjL... no03:29
Trippy72894oh03:29
LjLit's not either or03:30
dTalLjL: seems like a You problem03:30
LjLit's in fact not even related to what you're saying03:30
Trippy72894oh03:30
LjLdTal, i can see that03:30
LjLi was replying to Trippy7289403:30
Trippy72894sorry to be so dumb03:30
dTaloh riight lmao03:30
Trippy72894it's genetic03:30
de-factonot https://covariants.org/shared-mutations03:30
Trippy72894:)03:30
oerheksdepends on your healthcareplan, i guess03:30
LjLTrippy72894, what i'm saying is that if you only show *one type* of virus (whether it's inactivated virus, or bits of mRNA, or bits of protein), you will only get one type of immunity03:31
Trippy72894ahhh ok03:31
LjLif you show two types of virus, maybe you will get *many types* of immunity03:31
LjLbecause the immune system is smart (sometimes)03:31
LjLso what we need are multivalent vaccines03:31
Trippy72894so if in china we get lots of different vaccines, that would be better?03:31
dTalbut repeated breakthrougs provoke enhanced B-cell activity yes?03:31
LjLvaccines with more than one type of virus [protein] in them03:31
Trippy72894ah i see03:31
dTalthat's why the booster helps against Omicron03:31
Trippy72894and will we get that?03:31
lastshellLjL the current mrna vaxx only use one protein right ?03:31
de-factoseems Omicron got all mutations of Alpha and a lot more by itself03:32
lastshellwe need to target other proteins ?03:32
LjLdTal, a recent study showed that not only do the vaccines wane, but they wane *faster* for Delta than for prior variants and wild type. that, to me, says you can't continue pumping more of the same old vaccine unless you are willing to do that every week eventually03:32
LjLlastshell, no, that's not what i'm saying either03:32
Trippy72894are boosters the same as the original vaccine, or are they "updated"?03:32
LjLmaybe we do, but it's totally not what i'm saying03:32
LjLi'm saying03:32
LjLget the spike protein03:32
LjLinject it03:32
de-factodTal, yes and more diversity in antibody populations03:32
LjLbut inject MORE THAN ONE VARIANT of it03:32
lastshellahhh03:33
LjLTrippy72894, they are the same so far03:33
Trippy72894i see03:33
LjLTrippy72894, "updated" vaccines haven't yet finished trials. Moderna is developing one for Beta, Pfizer/BNT one for Delta, and now the EU has requested that they develop one for Omicron03:33
de-factoLjL, thats what i keep repeating with multivalent vaccines, a cocktail of all relevant variants (in terms of prevalence)03:33
LjLi know de-facto, it's just that clearly what i meant wasn't getting across03:33
Trippy72894i understand03:33
lastshellthank you LjL now I also understand03:34
Trippy72894we're sure keeping LjL busy03:34
LjLi have nothing to do :P03:34
Trippy72894thank you! :)03:34
LjLwell actually i was trying to make a Zotero command for Brainstorm03:34
Trippy72894was this channel quiet before I showed up?03:34
LjLbut i started it because i wanted to show you that paper, so...03:34
lastshellthe channel is pretty active03:34
* LjL scrolls up03:34
dTalchasing the variants seems distinctly less useful with Omicron03:34
LjLyeah it was being pretty quiet03:34
Trippy72894ah good.03:34
de-facto.title  https://investors.biontech.de/static-files/47b4131a-0545-4a0b-a353-49b3a1d01789 would the graphs at page 9 not suggest exactly that (broadening of the antibody affinity spectrum)?03:35
Brainstormde-facto: From investors.biontech.de: PowerPoint-Präsentation03:35
de-factopVNT50 titer BNT162b2 21d after 2nd dose: Wuhan=155, Omicron=6, Beta=36 and 28d after 3rd dose: Wuhan=398(2.6x), Omicron=154(25.6x), Beta=191(5.3x)03:35
de-facto<de-facto> the graph show how much a serum can be diluted until it only neutralized 50% of the pseudovirus03:35
dTalsince a) we obviously can't keep up, and b) new variants can emerge from any point in the virus's evolutionary history03:35
Trippy72894well, the best news I've heard here is that we might get a good vaccine that really nails all of this03:35
Trippy72894i hop we do03:35
dTalso for example a delta-targeted vaccine could be *worse* against omicron than the original vaccine03:36
LjLdTal, Omicron still has a bunch of mutations that other variants also have03:36
LjLi don't think we need to be targeting the *exact* variant that's circulating03:36
LjLbut we need to let the immune system know there's more than one variant, and the "main" mutations around03:36
LjLdTal, a Delta-targeted vaccine would generally be given to people who have also received the prior vaccine. or if not, it should be mixed (multivalent)03:36
de-factodTal, well any part of the virus history that still is "alive" aka in circulation somewhere, that we did not have a dense history of sequences is our fault of not collecting samples and sequencing where that Omicron history did take place, so aligning it with the phylogenetic tree that is known to us may just indicate that it evolved incognito03:37
LjLcan't install pyzotero, whoops. i'm afraid my shoddy python 2 setup really is at the end of the line03:40
de-facto...if we only are able to connect it with some ancestors in the very past of it03:40
* LjL restarts the bot and hope it ain't all broken now03:40
lastshellLjL r u using docker or python virtualenv ?03:40
LjLlastshell, a venv using poetry03:40
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD  (@michaelzlin): 2020.04 (another one I forgot to add): Remember the obsession with antibody tests and seroprevalence in April 2020, driven by this unfounded idea some large % of people got COVID without any symptoms? I didn't want to say it, but it was a dumb press [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/147240014632329626004:00
oerheksDutch gov wants to drop 15 min waiting after the jab, so it speeds up 5x https://nos.nl/liveblog/2410089-omt-wil-af-van-wachttijd-na-prik-burgemeesters-steunen-maatregelen04:01
oerheksi disagree04:02
BrainstormUpdates for Peru: +1856 cases (now 2.3 million), +34 deaths (now 202154), +103222 tests (now 21.1 million) since 11 hours ago04:02
LjLoerheks, UK has already (or at least my friend wasn't told to wait today)04:04
LjLit would only speed it up if waiting is the bottleneck...04:05
de-factooerheks, why not increase "cooldown" space 5-fold instead?04:14
de-factoadverse events should be rare enough that not more personnel would be required to supervise04:14
de-factothey usually use some center or gym etc, so space should not really be a constraint (if they can provide enough air circulation etc)04:17
de-factoor employ concepts like drive in with parking lots04:17
de-factobetelgeuse9, fix your dualstack connection please04:18
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Omicron cases doubling in 1.5-3 days in areas with local spread: WHO → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/omicron-cases-doubling-in-1-5-3-days-in-areas-with-local-spread-who-7679762/04:19
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A reporter risked her life to show the world Covid in Wuhan. Now she may not survive jail. → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rjnhwf/a_reporter_risked_her_life_to_show_the_world/04:28
LjLi'm thinking, to our general sentiment, things like Delta and Omicron are much worse than other "variants of concern"04:31
LjLuff04:31
LjLwhat should we call them? Variants of Despair?04:32
LjLthe naming competition start now04:32
ublxbetelgeuse variant exhibits some immune escape04:32
minthosvariants of consternation04:33
LjLublx, nah i'm clearly just a bad B-cell04:33
LjL%title https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210107-the-432-year-old-manual-on-social-distancing04:58
BrainstormLjL: From www.bbc.com: The 432-year-old manual on social distancing - BBC Future04:58
LjL"People allowed to go out must bear with them a cane measuring six feet long. It is mandatory that people keep this distance from one another."04:58
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Netherlands ‘going into lockdown again’ to curb omicron → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/netherlands-going-into-lockdown-again-to-curb-omicron-7679807/05:15
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +27654 cases (now 6.8 million) since 12 hours ago — Japan: +195 cases (now 1.7 million), +33689 tests (now 28.8 million) since a day ago — India: +7081 cases (now 34.7 million), +264 deaths (now 477422), +1211977 tests (now 664.1 million) since 22 hours ago05:35
Dredd<de-facto> "also think about what this..." <- The counter-view by those who say we must not take any remedial action that will affect he economy is that somehow the virus spreading uncontrolled will itself have no negative effect on the economy in areas such as hospitality. It's patently false and a pretty flawed argument but it largely persists a lot over here in the UK and I think also in the US. Not sure if people are a bit more capable of05:52
Dreddcritically thinking it through in Europe and elsewhere though?05:52
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 844: COVID, children, and boosters with Paul Offit: Paul Offit returns to TWiV to discuss new CDC guidance on J&J vaccine, why children should be immunized against COVID-19, and whether or not booster doses are scientifically justified. → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-844/06:12
Dredd<de-facto> "they usually use some center..." <- That's not true in the UK. My vaccination walk in was in a relatively small retail unit in the trendy shopping centre nearby. The vast majority of the appointments bookable to me were in random small pharmacies all over the place around the city. Most of the large areas setup / taken over during the pandemic's early days have been given back to their current uses. We shut down all our large overflow06:17
Dreddhospital places too06:17
Dredd>  For most of that time, the city wasn't in full lockdown, but people were expected to self-isolate for 40 days if a member of their household was suspected of having the plague, and taken to hospital. This is where the word "quarantine" comes from – "quaranta giorni" means "40 days" in Italian.06:24
DreddVery interesting!06:24
sdfgsdfgdoes the rapid antigen test show if you're infected with omicron06:27
DreddI believe they are supposed to yeah06:28
BrainstormUpdates for New Jersey, United States: +7644 cases (now 1.3 million), +33 deaths (now 28708) since 23 hours ago — Lombardy, Italy: +6119 cases (now 992464), +24 deaths (now 34718) since 23 hours ago — New South Wales, Australia: +2558 cases (now 97558) since 23 hours ago — Campania, Italy: +2256 cases (now 515077), +6 deaths (now 8335) since 23 hours ago06:31
BrainstormNew from Science-Based Medicine: Loud Silenced Doctors: When the history of this pandemic is written, contrarian doctors divorced from patient care won't be seen as its principle victims because YouTube removed their video, because someone called them "fringe," or because someone put up posters reminding them of words they said. [... want %more?] → https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/muzzled/06:50
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Experts sound alarm over omicron as border control measures near limit in Japan → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rjqdib/experts_sound_alarm_over_omicron_as_border/07:18
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Some Southeast Asian tourism spots reopen, but arrivals are down → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/some-southeast-asian-tourism-spots-reopen-but-arrivals-are-down-7679927/07:27
minthosthey're an island nation, they could close the border completely07:31
minthos(japan)07:32
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: On cruise ships, omicron puts safety protocols to the test → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/on-cruise-ships-omicron-puts-safety-protocols-to-the-test-7679965/07:47
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: As COVID surges, experts say US booster effort is far behind → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/as-covid-surges-experts-say-us-booster-effort-is-far-behind-7679934/07:56
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | December 19, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rjs3at/daily_discussion_thread_december_19_2021/09:02
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Majority of hospitalisations in London are incidental admissions. → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/rjs9zt/majority_of_hospitalisations_in_london_are/10:45
darsieWhat does incidental admission mean?10:54
darsiei.e. they incidentally tested positive after admission for other conditions.10:56
oerheksIncidental admission is an admission made in connection with admission of some other fact. https://definitions.uslegal.com/i/incidental-admission/10:57
darsiemhm. thx10:58
BrainstormUpdates for Oman: +60 cases (now 304843) since 2 days ago10:59
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: huisdoktertim  #ikvaccineer (@huisdoktertim): Hoe werken antistoffen ? Is dit het enige stuk van je immuunsysteem? Waarom krijg je antistoffen van booster en helpt boosteren ook als antistoffen minder goed werken? En hoe zit dat nou met bijwerking vaccin zoals gevreesde myocarditis ? [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/huisdoktertim/status/147249823376735027311:04
TuvixI'm still shaking my head about the myocarditis hype, like that tweet. Yes, it's a (quite rare) side-effect from vaccines, but it's a far more common (still rather rare) side-effect from catching COVID-19 :\11:10
TimvdeTuvix: Do you know Dutch?11:15
TimvdeThe translation is: "How do antibodies work? Is this the only part o your immune system? Why does a booster produce antibodies and does it also help when antibodies are less effective? And what's the deal with the vaccine side effects like the dreaded myocarditis? Explained in language for common people"11:18
TuvixNo, but the meaning is fairly clear through online translators on that. Yes, they can get some things wrong too11:18
TuvixMy point is really that if somoene's big concern with vaccines is myocarditis, they're broadly speaking BETTER off getting vaccinated, since they have a far smaller risk of that side-effect from vaccination than from catching the disease.11:19
TuvixI don't know if there's been a newer study, but this one was pretty conclusive; If anything, Omicron only seems to make it more likely the unvaccinated not yet infected are (or get re-infected.) https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm11:20
TimvdeTuvix: agreed, which is explained in the thread11:21
Timvdehttps://twitter.com/huisdoktertim/status/147250089978850509611:22
TuvixAh, gotcha. In that case I'll still shake my head at the hype, but neat to see some attempts to explain science that isn't a "boring" paper :)11:22
TimvdeMyocarditis: yes, it is true. Especially in teenagers, myocarditis happens more after taking the vaccine. There's no use in denying that. It happens, but very rarely. But: myocarditis happens a lot more after COVID infection than after COVID vaccination.11:23
Timvde(next tweet) What does that mean? Being infected with corona is worse (higher chance on myocarditis) than taking the vaccine. And pretty much everyone will get it at some point. It looks like 2/3 of primary school kids already got it. So if you want to avoid myocarditis, you need to get vaccinated.11:24
TuvixYea, and going by that CDC report, .146% of COVID patients seem to present with that condition (I think it's a bit less in youth, but don't have that stat handy. I *think* around 14/100k from memory though.)11:25
TuvixStill, given the national population of youth, that's still a lot of incidence.11:25
TimvdeMy mother told me this weekend that if I was still a kid, she probably wouldn't have me vaccinated11:26
TimvdeI was very disappointed11:26
Timvde(note: she took both doses and has an appointment for her booster, she just doesn't think it's worth it for kids)11:27
TuvixUltimately parents/guardians need to get info from their pediatric care doctors. I suspect a lot of the overplayed concern is not coming from doctors though.11:27
TimvdeThere's also a lot of cherry-picking going on11:33
Timvde"A friend of mine knows a doctor who isn't vaccinated, and he must know!"11:33
TimvdeTotally ignoring all other doctors who are11:33
TuvixSure, and I've heard some reporting that has noted not just that trend, but that many countries are struggling to deal with "bad" doctors since enforcement is often slow if it comes at all to discourage that borderline misinformation.11:34
TimvdeAnd if they lose their medical license because of it, it's "censorship" and "they don't want us to know the truth"11:35
TimvdeThere's no winning the battle against misinformation11:35
TuvixSome are willing to listen to new information, studies, and so on. The ones that aren't will just find another excuse though even if you convince them otherwise.11:36
TuvixSay someone didn't get their child vaccinated due to myocarditis for example. Let's even assume they reviewed some of the scientific literature with their doctor and agreed with the findings. They could just then refuse on new grounds, and it's back to square-1 again.11:37
TuvixIt really boils down to: are you using science to arrive at a conclusion, or are you cherry-picking science to back the conclusion you've already arrived at.11:38
TimvdeYep11:38
TimvdeAlthough I sort of have to apply the same technique in the other direction just to stay sane11:38
TuvixI wasn't sold on masks (especially the cheap cloth ones) early on in the pandemic, but I've fully changed my view and have a good mask with replacable filters now.11:38
TimvdeThere's so much bullshit going around that I dismiss a lot of it without investigating the sources because they sound implausible based on my current understanding11:39
Timvde(it of course depends on the source making the claim - a known antivaxxer vs a reputable news source)11:39
TuvixYea, I try to have a bit of variety in my news & podcast feed. I can only take so much info at once, but it's sometimes interesting to hear differing views on say protection from (verified!) prior infection vs. vaccines. Plenty of legit debate there because we still don't really know or have good long-term tracking of that.11:40
TimvdeI use disposable surgical masks usually, or an FFP2 mask if I feel uncomfortable (e.g. public transport)11:41
TuvixThough I'd argue there the lack of good testing makes that a hard premise to get great answers on; let's face it, if you got infected without vaccination, you probably also aren't doing a good job self-monitoring or testing & reporting.11:41
TimvdeYes, but "prior infection yields better protection than a vaccine" never was implausible for me, the big issue there is the prior infection, lol11:41
TimvdeIt's more "If I get infected for the first time tomorrow, do I want to be vaccinated or not?"11:42
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: London Mayor: Inevitable we will have more COVID restrictions → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rjtzg8/london_mayor_inevitable_we_will_have_more_covid/11:42
TimvdeOr even "If I was infected last month, will a vaccine boost my protection or not?"11:42
TuvixThat seems a prety clear answer, at least if you use antibody levels as your metric.11:43
TimvdeI think in both cases the answer is "take the vaccine"11:43
minthosover a long enough timeline anti-vaxxers will die from diseases that there are vaccines for11:43
sdfgsdfgwe just need the third shot that's definitely needed.11:43
TimvdeMaybe wait a couple more months in the second case11:43
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +27655 cases (now 6.8 million) since 19 hours ago11:43
sdfgsdfgcloser you get to death when youre infected, better and longer term protection you will have in the long run, your immune system will remember it like there's no tomorrow lol11:46
sdfgsdfgprobably11:46
sdfgsdfgI mean there's no evidence that suggests otherwise11:46
TuvixA lack of information doesn't really suggest correlation either way. Re-infection is a thing, and with existing/future varients that seems a poor thing to rely on.11:49
minthosor, the closer you get to death the more irreversible damage has been done to your organs and the easier it is for the next round to finish you off11:51
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): • A call to fellow-journalists to do better at featuring women's voices in our coverage of Covid. This is something I strive to do in my stories, but I've certainly fallen short far too often kcl.ac.uk/news/women-hav… → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/147251894576474931311:51
sdfgsdfgdeath rate of the 25 year olds: 0,01% compared to the death rate of 80 year olds: 15%, almost all of them had comorbidities.11:55
minthosgood guy covid thinning out the herd after we defeated all the big predators11:56
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Treating some COVID-19 patients at home, with remote monitoring of oxygen levels, seems eminently sensible to me.Good to see the NHS being fleet-footed in its attempt to avoid a crisis. twitter.com/shaunlintern/s… → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/147251974281247130412:01
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): An observation to finish:A response I often get from women experts on Covid when seeking comment: "thanks, but I don't think I have much to add to what has already been said"From blokes? Not so muchPlease give us quotes, you have just as much to [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/147252286495176294512:10
BrainstormNew from Politico: Borders: Germany introduces two-week quarantine for travellers from UK → https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-introduces-two-week-quarantine-for-travellers-from-uk/12:20
xxwork from home? More like "being at the hospital, from home".12:22
BrainstormUpdates for Libya: +726 cases (now 381749), +9 deaths (now 5598), +5364 tests (now 2.0 million) since 2 days ago — Nepal: +133 cases (now 825736), +1 deaths (now 11573), +4831 tests (now 4.8 million) since 23 hours ago12:33
ArsaneritIs it a realistic idea that Omicron is the final major wave of the pandemic, before reaching an endemic situation?  https://twitter.com/EckerleIsabella/status/146945894680098816512:35
minthosit may have achieved peak infectiousness so if it teaches us to not breathe each others' exhaled virus particles, maybe12:37
minthosthat seems like a big if considering humans12:37
Arsaneritand does a wave that rise quickly also fall off quickly / last less long?12:39
minthosnot necessarily12:39
minthosit seems fond of reinfecting those previously infected12:39
Timvdeminthos: we also thought that of delta12:48
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: The pandemic has shown a new way to reduce climate change: scrap in-person meetings & conventions. Moving a professional conference completely online reduces its carbon footprint by 94%, and shifting it to a hybrid model, with no more than half of [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/rjv2i1/the_pandemic_has_shown_a_new_way_to_reduce/12:48
TimvdeAs long as omicron hasn't reached measles-level of infectiousness, I'm not gonna claim that its at its peak12:50
Timvdeeh, as long as the virus*12:50
TimvdeI guess omicron won't change anymore, it'd get a different name then :P12:50
DreddI'm holding out for the Optimus Prime variant12:51
DreddIt's the one that defeats all other variants, competitively inhibiting them but actually makes us healthier instead of sick12:52
minthoslet's hope we don't get a decepticon variant12:52
DreddI would expect an ongoing harrying from the Megatron variant12:53
DreddBut since Optimus Prime variant posses the All-Spike we don't need to worry 🤔12:53
minthosI just want an excuse to unironically wear a papr in public12:54
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Hits ‘keep coming’: Hospitals struggle as Covid-19 beds fill → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/hits-keep-coming-hospitals-struggle-as-covid-19-beds-fill-7680274/12:57
BrainstormUpdates for Uganda: +297 cases (now 129061), +1 deaths (now 3273), +6680 tests (now 2.1 million) since 23 hours ago13:04
xxhonestly I wouldn't mind if wearing mouth+nose coverings became as normal as wearing pants13:17
TuvixAt least when one is sick to help protect those around them, sure. Randall put something similar very well: https://xkcd.com/245713:24
minthosthais are pretty good at masking up in general, I think east asians are too from what I've heard13:26
minthosfor pollution as well as sniffles13:26
TuvixA practical approach to both, yea. Sure beats an approach driven more by politics by comparison…13:27
xxI very much enjoy no longer breathing in someone else's exhales13:31
xxas well as carbon particulates, dust, insects, ...13:32
sdfgsdfgwow I didn't know astrazeneca jab was a chimpanzee adenovirus-vectored vaccine. How did I even got to this after chain researching viral conjunctivitis and adenoviruses...13:37
xxsputnik is the one that uses human Ad13:40
sdfgsdfgwhoaa....... Many of the most widely known viral diseases are caused by viruses in Riboviria, which includes coronaviruses, ebola virus, HIV, influenza viruses, and the rabies virus. These viruses and others have been prominent throughout history, including Tobacco mosaic virus, which was the first virus to be discovered. Many reverse transcribing viruses notably become integrated into the genome of their host as part of their replication cycle. As13:44
sdfgsdfg a result of that, it is estimated that about 7–8% of the human genome originates from these viruses.13:44
xx70%-80% of human genome is absolute bullshit anyway that we could live perfectly without13:45
xxjust evolutionary baggage with no pressure to remove it13:46
sdfgsdfgthat reminds me of the matrix quote agent smith comparing human behavior to viral replication patterns13:46
minthoswait until you discover how much we depend on dna that isn't even in our genome13:50
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Two practical measures that could be taken to reduce the impact of Omicron without the need for stringent restrictions: - Clear guidance to take an LFT immediately before meeting anyone outside your household - Reduce isolation to seven days, provided [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/147254618151555482513:55
BrainstormUpdates for UAE: +285 cases (now 744137), +310797 tests (now 106.8 million) since 13 hours ago14:06
de-facto[m]In UK Omicron dominates with more than 50% contribution to daily new infections14:15
TuvixIt'll be interesting to watch what happens to the US next with both that trend and the impact on the hospital system, already quite stressed in areas thanks to Delta & winter.14:18
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Omicron Variant Multiplies 70 times more than Delta in the Body → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rjwgb4/omicron_variant_multiplies_70_times_more_than/14:23
blobbs@Brainstorm ooohh14:27
xxblobbs: brainstorm is a bot14:31
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +28643 cases (now 6.8 million) since 21 hours ago14:31
generastill deserves respect!14:32
xxgenera: you're just trying to create favourable logs for yourself for when the robot overlords take over, aren't you :p14:32
generahow did you tell!14:32
xxbecause I do the same :D14:33
xxI ❤️ robots14:33
minthosit will be interesting to see if the robots save us from ourselves or just save themselves from us14:35
finely[m]<Timvde> "There's no winning the battle..." <- A huge amount of it could be stopped by somehow killing the social media algorithms that prioritise spreading "contentious" material.14:40
blobbsa government bot to increase fear?14:42
blobbsOh, yet. Get the jab and you will (not) be save from Omicron.14:43
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): 3) @SMHopkins of UKHSA who has been a consistent and clear communicator throughout the pandemic and has expertly led countless technical media briefings that have left us all infinitely more informed → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/147256333796365516814:51
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): 4) How on earth did I write this list without including @zeynep, who has time and again been right about Covid where others have been wrong, and is probably my single most recommended follow on Twitter (both for Covid and everything else) → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/147256333928491827815:01
BrainstormUpdates for Senegal: +20 cases (now 74161), +2102 tests (now 901722) since a day ago — Bangladesh: +211 cases (now 1.6 million), +1 deaths (now 28048), +17332 tests (now 11.3 million) since a day ago15:09
finely[m]<blobbs> "a government bot to increase..." <- A Russian disinfo worker exploiting existing divisions in the west?15:10
finely[m]"A trove of internal Facebook documents reveals that the social media giant has privately and meticulously tracked real-world harms exacerbated by its platforms, ignored warnings from its employees about the risks of their design decisions and exposed vulnerable communities around the world to a cocktail of dangerous content."15:12
finely[m]https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/10/25/what-are-the-facebook-papers/15:12
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Just a reminder that we’ve known about human coronavirus for over 70 years now. It didn’t come from a lab in china → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rjxjqt/just_a_reminder_that_weve_known_about_human/15:21
Tuvixfinely[m]: It doesn't help that some people view (parts of) facebook as a proper source of news, compounded with an often low ability to apply critical thinking to the results.15:43
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Pessimists Archive (@PessimistsArc): ❝The question being raised is whether it might not be better to... leT chilDrEn geT MEAslES aNd DeVElOp a NaTURAL LiFe-TiMe IMmUNiTY❞ pessimistsarchive.org/list/vaccines/… → https://twitter.com/PessimistsArc/status/147257569831330202815:50
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66): @jburnmurdoch Thank you so much @jburnmurdoch. In yet another pandemic period that feels particularly tough at this time of year, this is really touching and meaningful. We are all in a brighter place because of your graphs & thoughtful threads - thank you [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/147258076319552307815:59
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Paris cancels New Year fireworks as Omicron fears deepen → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rjyac4/paris_cancels_new_year_fireworks_as_omicron_fears/16:08
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): No words are needed when you put it in a picture like this!dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/vacci… pic.twitter.com/0Yei3D0pv3 → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/147258570282733978316:18
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +6605 cases (now 1.9 million), +6 deaths (now 30094) since 23 hours ago16:36
TuvixHmm, that Wisconsin DHS data is interesting to poke at. There's a by-month (since Feb, so basically when vaccines were just beginning to become available) view of cases/hospitalizations/deaths broken down by fully vs non-fully vaccinated.16:45
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: London, with Britain’s largest surge, goes on emergency footing against Omicron → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/london-britain-emergency-footing-omicron-7680694/16:47
TuvixAlso interesting to compare the change in ratios between fully vs non-fully vaccinated (hosp. or death) as a factor of time.16:49
BrainstormNew from Retraction Watch: Elsevier subjects entire special issue of journal on COVID-19 to an expression of concern: Elsevier has subjected an entire special issue of a journal — including a paper claiming COVID-19 vaccines kill five times [... want %more?] → https://retractionwatch.com/2021/12/19/elsevier-subjects-entire-special-issue-of-journal-on-covid-19-to-an-expression-of-concern/17:06
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Yes I know - we still don’t know exactly what this means for hospital admissions and deaths. But this volume of cases, at least, is likely to be very disruptive with so many people in isolation. → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/147259961657093325417:15
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Researchers develop an RNA-based breath test to detect COVID-19 → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rjzxhr/researchers_develop_an_rnabased_breath_test_to/17:25
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +13293 cases (now 3.0 million), +48 deaths (now 20929) since 16 hours ago17:38
de-facto.tr <de " Die Einstufung des Vereinigten Königreichs von Großbritannien und Nordirland inkl. der Isle of Man sowie aller Kanalinseln und aller britischen Überseegebiete als Virusvariantengebiet ist wirksam ab Montag, 20. Dezember 2021 um 0:00 Uhr"17:41
Brainstormde-facto, German to English: "The classification of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland including the Isle of Man as well as all Channel Islands and all British overseas territories as virus variant areas is effective from Monday, December 20, 2021 at 12:00 a.m." (MyMemory, Google)17:41
de-factoNOT before that.17:42
de-factobecause Omicron complies with regulations. of course.17:42
TuvixSure. Timezones are hard, but the virus is clever. It'll figure it out!17:42
de-factoactually this would be hilarious if not so tragic, the incapability of humans to deal with something like this17:43
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter): Omicron raises an urgent math problem for epi world & @CDCgov– Solve for X:For vaxxed person w/ Omicron, "X"=minimum # of days of isolation that optimizes limiting spread & keeping economy going, assuming rapid test is neg on days X-1 & X.(Hint: I doubt [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/147260506938835763317:44
TuvixMy ISS-height view of it all is that it was going to be quite the mess anyway, but handling at both government and individual levels has made it far worse than it had to be.17:44
de-factonow its weekend, i am sure Omicron will only use working days to spread17:45
TuvixLocal here, bars have been packed, and there's a lot of disregard for rules even in the counties with a friendlier view to vaccination & following local guidance.17:46
TuvixFor every family or group of people who follow guidance, there's another out at the local bar, unvaccinated, during case-peaks.17:46
TuvixI picked up some to-go from a supper-club during lockdown. Locals were "waiting for food to go" with beers at the bar. They also just ate out of their to-go containers over another beer. You know, while they waited…17:48
Arsaneritde-facto: what do you think of the idea that omicron might be the final major wave of the pandemic, before reaching an endemic situation?  https://twitter.com/EckerleIsabella/status/146945894680098816517:58
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +24303 cases (now 5.4 million), +97 deaths (now 135641), +566300 tests (now 130.4 million) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +81959 cases (now 11.4 million) since 23 hours ago18:03
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Blog: India's Risky Plan Betting On A Mild Omicron → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/rk0t5r/blog_indias_risky_plan_betting_on_a_mild_omicron/18:03
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Covid2019: There's no doubt, number of Omicron cases will go up in India: Dr Shahid Jameel → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/rk0y4e/theres_no_doubt_number_of_omicron_cases_will_go/18:13
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Wisconsin: 'Our hospitals, without a doubt, are frankly underwater right now' Health experts sound the alarm as COVID cases spike → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/rk12vy/wisconsin_our_hospitals_without_a_doubt_are/18:22
Tuvix"I think it's more of another hype up of something, just to keep the masses controlled," said [a Wisconsin local]18:28
TuvixUh-huh.18:28
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Great job and organization; 77.000 10-11-year-olds (younger siblings were allowed) were vaccinated this weekend. Smooth running, little waiting time! 7-9 in January and 5-6 shortly after.reuters.com/world/europe/w… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/147261973099339366418:32
BrainstormUpdates for Namibia: +1263 cases (now 138184), +1 deaths (now 3582), +9119 tests (now 837584) since 21 hours ago — Sierra Leone: +34 cases (now 6505) since 23 hours ago18:41
Dredd<de-facto> "now its weekend, i am sure..." <- Well that is what the cases always show 😉18:43
de-factolol :P18:43
de-factoindeed they do18:43
de-factoArsanerit, well yeah its an interesting idea, the question is what kind of immunity results from Omicron, does that neutralize mutants emerging from other prevalent varients such as Delta etc?18:45
DreddIt's always nice that covid gives us a week to sort out our changes18:46
DreddBoris relies on it a lot18:46
de-factoor asked the other way around: why would we not have assumed similar about Delta and be proven wrong by Omicron (as it being seroevasive)?18:46
DreddThe mildness argument maybe?18:47
de-factohuh?18:47
DreddOmicron being allegedly mild Vs delta being severe18:47
de-factoassumed that would be the case (i am not convinced), what would you derive from that?18:48
DreddI mean for it to be endemic and life returning to normality mildness is kind of required18:49
DreddIf it is still dangerous we won't tolerate it still existing and will keep trying to get rid of it18:50
DreddOr mitigate it18:50
DreddWhich puts a long term selection pressure on milder variants I hope, since we will tolerate them 😂18:50
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Recruitment of highly cytotoxic CD8+ T cell receptors in mild SARS-CoV-2 infection → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rk1mh8/recruitment_of_highly_cytotoxic_cd8_t_cell/18:51
de-factothe hope would be that with each re-challenge the immune system would become more adept in dealing with it, hence hopefully every additional infection showing milder and milder symptoms18:52
Arsaneriteventually something will happen18:53
de-factoUK is bravely testing out that thesis for us, lets have a very close look at their hospital occupancy18:55
Dreddhttps://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/rjwy27/woman_gets_fired_for_refusing_to_go_to_work_with/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share18:55
DreddWtf18:55
ArsaneritAnd let's see how long their omicron wave lasts.  If it grows so rapidly, it can't continue growing for very long.18:56
de-factosuch businesses should get closed down18:56
DreddIt's not even legal in UK law18:56
DreddYou can self verify as sick18:56
DreddAnd unless it's for more than 5 working days they can't require evidence or whatever18:57
Dredd*self certify18:57
de-factowell Arsanerit that depends on when pre-existing immunity thresholds are reached, and if Omicron really is that sero-evasive (with reinfection capabilitiy) it would see a largely naive population, hence may be back to square one in terms of transmissibility etc18:58
Arsaneritde-facto: I meant in general; the faster the growth, the earlier the growth hits whatever factors will limit the growth.18:58
de-factoyeah but i meant in this case the growth may be that fast due to it seeing mostly naive individuals, hence it may need longer time to hit limiting factors such as pre-existing immunity (that would have to result from Omicron infection=18:59
ArsaneritI guess we'll find out how bad the symptoms of individuals are who have antibodies for other variants.19:00
de-factoi guess less bad, because 80% of T-cell epitopes are conserved even with Omicron19:00
ArsaneritThen maybe the "omicron is less bad" thingy may be true only because by now most people already have antibodies, either from previous infections or from vaccinations?19:04
de-factothat at least would make both sense and hope19:06
de-factoit would be bad news for non-vaccinated though as they may have severe Omicron progressions, we simply do not know yet, soon we will have statistics on that19:07
ArsaneritDo we have any estimated what % of unvaccinated people have antibodies from previous infections?19:07
de-factogood question, we had if there were efforts for dedicating some testing capacity (both antigen and antibody) towards representative randomly chosen samplings in the population19:10
xxwe'd have more reliable numbers on that if govs started accepting antibody levels as equivalent to vaccinations19:10
de-factothat too indeed19:11
xxin fact, accepting vaccinations, without knowing the resulting antibody levels, is a problem in my opinion19:11
Tuvixde-facto: I've stopped participating in a local club here with nearly-as-bad business practices. It's _very_ indoors and close-space contact for what they do. Earlier this year an unvaccinated staff tested positve (probably got it at his day-job) and we had to notify all customers around the facility. Owner refused to even ask our other club/staff to get tested, saying that "we can't ask them to do that"19:11
xxthere likely are lots of vulnerable people out there, thinking they have high protection levels after 3 doses, but if they were tested it would be shown they have almost no protection19:11
xxyet those people are going out like everything is fine...19:11
de-factoor excusing vaccinated (or boosted) from testing duties, also completely stupid, because they already decided for vaccination/boosting etc and if a mutant may have developed the capability to circumvent such immunity it would be EXTRA important to: 1) test and get aware of its rise 2) test and end infection chains with it19:12
TuvixNevermind mutations; we already know both breakthrough cases among the vaccinated and re-infection amont the recovered are things.19:13
TuvixEven if the case is mild-to-no-symptoms, it can still get passed along, including to the immunocompromised or those too young to yet be vaccinated by local guidelines or availability.19:14
de-factowe should just make testing mandatory for everyone on a regular basis, so that we know what is going on, closing the eyes and ignoring infections would not make them vanish19:14
TuvixI've just accepted that I'll be wearing a good quality mask for any non-outdoor interactions in any setting I don't know for sure that 100% of the people are vaccinated.19:14
xxeven if they are vaccinated, it doesn't mean that they can't spread it to you19:15
xxbetter wear a mask always19:15
de-factoi just do not go to restaurants, clubs etc anymore. honestly i hope they will vanish19:16
xxrestaurants will likely transform into something where people only go to a few times in life, like for weddings/funerals/birthdays, instead of this thing where people go there every week/day19:18
de-factoyeah their time is over, sad for them but its how it is19:18
TuvixBefore the delta uptick I did a bit of in-person dining during off-hours. I stopped that about 4 months back though, doing just takeout as the hospital inpatient numbers around here have just kept rising.19:19
de-factohere some club owners directly understood that in early 2020 when they sold their establishments, others tried to survive for some time and ended in bankruptcy19:19
TuvixThis was back when the messaging was 2-doses was all you needed, and before delta really had taken off.19:19
xxI've ordered a lot of basic supplies over 2 years ago to not need to go out shopping at all19:20
TuvixThis place is a sports club, but something like half the staff are something between anti vax/mask to highly resistant.19:20
xxwell, almost 2 years ago19:20
imaginaryhonestly i appreciate restaurants and clubs, it really sucks that i can't just go to one anymore19:20
imaginaryor well, "can't" i guess19:20
imaginaryTuvix: yikes19:20
TuvixOne of the "experienced" instructors there even emailed the entire staff list in response/protest to masks being re-required (re: delta) to "warn" all the newer instructions that masks on our customers would cause them to pass out due to lack of oxygen (that last part he bolded.) This is of course all false information, but I stopped even trying to discuss matters after that.19:21
TuvixPresumably that was some nonsense from the various online or inaccurate broadcast personalities that produce such absolutely nonsense as "news"19:22
Tuvix:(19:22
TuvixErm, warn the newer instructors*19:22
de-factoyeah some of the owners seek refuge in misinfo groups and then try to establish that nonsense in their businesses19:23
TuvixThis was juat a key regular, but the owner turns a blind eye to it all; I think she's afraid if she pushes back, they'll all stop showing up in protest (it's all-volunteer run)19:23
TuvixOwner is vaccinated, but basically has zero care what anyone else does, staff or customers.19:24
de-factoif so with not caring about implementing concepts against contagion she also does obviously not care about preserving a sustainable future of her establishment19:25
TuvixI mean, most of the members there don't seem to mind.19:25
TuvixThere's just enough signage about masks (which is not followed anyway) that customers might be convinced there are actually protocols there. However, there aren't.19:26
de-factohence their establishment will get known for spreading infections, something that is not good for sustaining business19:26
TuvixI mean, if staff test positive they might notify customers again, but as I noted above they just don't test.19:26
TuvixCan't test positive if you don't take a test. Clever, no? :(19:26
de-factoi just wont contribute any money in such establishments, i hope they vanish19:27
TuvixIt used to be masks were required indoors, but then this state (in line with the US gov't changes) moved to masks optional for fully vaccinated people. On the 2nd day of the rule change, all the unvaccinated also took off thier masks, realizing they could "blend in" with the vax'd.19:29
de-factoyeah they just can not be trusted with implementing sane hygiene concepts, because they just dont care, hence a world without them would be better19:30
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +6704 cases (now 1.9 million) since 23 hours ago19:31
TuvixHeh, they're not going anywhere. I just won't visit, since it's a covid-sharing box. The clubhouse is all closed up (winter here, so recirculating HVAC in a fairly small building) and they have ~25 minute rides out, in a tiny vehicle all breathing the same are.19:31
TuvixIn _theory_ they're supposed to all be masking then too, but I assure you are not.19:31
TuvixOh well, maybe by 2023 it'll be safe to rejoin such clubs again.19:32
de-factoi wont rejoin, because of the behavior they demonstrate right now19:33
de-factoeven when COVID is over19:33
TuvixOh, and just in case you didn't think that expose-our-customer story could get worse, that customer was a paediatric care nurse, and this was before the under-12's could get vaccinated here.19:36
TuvixThat info was in the next weekly all-staff email, not that anyone (besides me) seemed to care.19:36
Dredd<xx> "in fact, accepting vaccinations,..." <- Immune response is a lot more complicated to measure than just serum  antibodies at time T so not sure absolutely how useful it would be. They're used a lot as a model for neutralising effect on the virus in vitro because it's easy to do and compare19:37
TuvixRight, some vaccinations are good for either life or measured in the decades; I don't think that's so much antibody levels as it is long-term protection. T-cell memory can matter a lot more in those applications.19:38
de-factobtw interesting that this weekend in ALL major locations the COVIDIOTS gathered simultaneously, obviously their scheduling is coordinated19:39
de-factoin Europe at least19:39
DreddMaybe they just gather every weekend 😂19:43
de-factonot really19:44
TuvixI don't wish the effect of smallpox on anyone, but I wouldn't mind if COVID-19 produced those boils on the skin. Then vanity would encourage people to get vaccinated and follow other prevention measures.19:45
de-factoif only people knew how their lung would look like after COVID19:45
TuvixThat doesn't tend to help wrt. say smoking.19:45
de-factoi mean if it can be seen on X-rays even it must be quite a significant change19:46
TuvixRight, but that won't impact your social life, short of landing you in the hospital or morgue (in which case that solves all the rest of your social obligations too, I suppose)19:47
de-factoyep indeed19:47
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Well it certainly looks as though Gauteng, the epicentre of Omicron in South Africa, is past its peak of new cases. At least for now. twitter.com/rajeev_the_kin… → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/147263889359387034419:48
de-facto^^ interesting, what part of population in Gauteng was required to be infected for that?19:49
de-factoid like to see relative numbers19:49
TuvixRemember, they're also in springtime. The global-north could be a lot different given both flu-like illnesses and delta priming things in a bad way too.19:50
TuvixI listen to medic dispatch here, and it's not uncommon for either of the 2 main hospitals to indicate they're on "trauma divert" for several weeks now.19:51
TuvixJust because they're a half-mild from where that car crash occurred, they might not be able to take a new patient.19:51
Tuvixhalf-mile*19:51
DreddI've got some sort of dry cough going on, I've woken up coughing several times in the last week19:58
DreddBut 3 lateral flow tests all were negative19:58
Dredd🤷‍♂️19:58
xxI coughed once today20:01
LjLi probably haven't coughed in the past 24 hours20:03
LjLwhich disease causes lack of coughing?20:03
LjLit must be a terrible one20:03
spokojni[m]Dredd That's why I smoke, can always blame smoking on coughing.20:13
LjLsensible20:14
xxwhy would anyone not kick that habit when there's a respiratory virus pandemic out there?20:14
spokojni[m]Why would I?20:14
spokojni[m]It's one of the rare enjoyments I have left in this life.20:14
xxbecause there are more fun drugs out there that don't fuck up your lungs20:14
spokojni[m]Well I smoke joints, like 10-15 joints per day, with tobacco.20:15
spokojni[m]Just a card filter, my teeths are stained. LOL20:15
LjLwhy would anyone not kick that habit when it's known to give me many types of cancer, COPD, and more crippling ailments?20:17
Tuvixxx: Coughed once? Hopefully a wet cough: https://xkcd.com/2279 ;)20:17
LjLi'm not sure i know the answer but it's probably the same20:17
xxTuvix: incredibly wet. I don't salivate, so I just cough once on my food in order to cover it with mucus, then wait a bit for the food to dissolve, and then drink it up using a straw.20:21
xxthe teleportation experiment did not go well20:21
TuvixHeh, Randall should have just subcontracted you to do the mouseovers :)20:22
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Ted (@armourfan1989): @FransPietersma @BartBRKSMA @matthijsgdj @IngeStolkenburg @talithamuusse @huisdoktertim Het is ook niet zozeer dat waar ik een probleem mee heb. Het op één hoop gooien van deze nieuwe en experimentele technieken met uitvoerig geteste en vertrouwde vaccins vind ik [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/armourfan1989/status/147264097451821056720:26
BrainstormUpdates for Mauritania: +56 cases (now 40083), +1 deaths (now 853), +1928 tests (now 538956) since 21 hours ago20:33
rpifanim really annoyed they wont approve novavax yet20:34
rpifanthe real way out of the vacinne crisis is not to force ppl to take the current shit20:34
rpifanbut to give ppl more choices20:34
rpifani was reading an article that said at least 50 percent of the vaccine hesistsant ppl arent against the vaccine but scared of this mrna vaccine20:35
rpifanim gonan inclue myself in that20:35
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): New data posted @CDCgov thru November 20th:1. strong protection of vaccination vs infections2. the impact of their 2 month delay for recommending boosters for all adults: a 2.8-fold rise in cases covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… in 17 jurisdictions pic.twitter.com/mJqfP8Fiya → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/147265060753836032220:35
rpifanif you give me a more traditional vaccine mix ill ake it20:35
rpifanwith a lot less hesistance20:35
ArsaneritNovavax is not traditional?20:45
ArsaneritMy colleague said he would take a inactivated vaccine type.20:46
LjLgroan. https://twitter.com/mcmonkeymc/status/147244897870480998420:49
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The evidence for all adults benefiting from boosters was unequivocal well before Omicron washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/… @PostOpinions w/ @mtosterholm pic.twitter.com/2yaGgexpZf → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/147265851541608448321:13
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Xi 'an reports hemorrhagic fever cases, but no need to panic as medical experts urge quick vaccinations → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rk4l05/xi_an_reports_hemorrhagic_fever_cases_but_no_need/21:22
oerheksNo lockdown before Christmas, Germany says21:27
oerheksfirst spend all you money, please21:27
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Report 49 - Growth, population distribution and immune escape of Omicron in England ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/EAVZIBK4 )21:28
ArsaneritChristmas is quasi right now21:35
Arsaneritand German has never had a lockdown at all21:35
Arsaneritas at the same time closing shops and restaurants is not ruled out21:35
ArsaneritClosing all schools, shops, restaurants etc. is not a lockdown.21:35
BrainstormUpdates for France: +48473 cases (now 8.7 million), +75 deaths (now 122478) since a day ago21:35
oerheksYes it is..21:35
xxlockdown is not a well defined term21:36
ArsaneritNo, lockdown would mean people can't leave their homes.21:36
ArsaneritThere have been some lockdowns in Germany, but only at night time or in very small areas.21:36
xxyeah, because covid sleeps during the day and is most active at night21:36
Arsaneritxx: which means Mr. Lauterback can easily escape almost whatever measures he introduces as saying "it's not a lockdown" :)21:37
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Denmark is an important window for tracking Omicron, w/ its extremely high testing rate (35/100K; 9X US) and high fully vaccinated rate (78%)Today's data (yes, weekend, nonetheless) are fairly encouraging newsnodes.com/country/DKMissing—hospitalizations, by [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/147266683831617126621:41
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Anosmia and dysgeusia amongst COVID‐19 patients are associated with low levels of serum glucagon‐like peptide 1 → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rk5eof/anosmia_and_dysgeusia_amongst_covid19_patients/22:00
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Denmark is also a world leader in sequencing the virusToday's @SSI_dk reportMost Omicron cases in age group 20-29Omicron hospitalizations increased by 30, 5 less in ICUfiles.ssi.dk/covid19/omikro… (in English) pic.twitter.com/YHE5NLfS8X → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/147267923775252889822:29
yangmobi1eWhat is the minimum timeframe between 2. and 3. dose of Pfizer-biontech?22:29
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Today's report on Omicron (vs yesterday)Hospitalizations increased from 85 to 104Deaths increased from 7 to 12 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/147268037275630387622:38
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +6931 cases (now 1.9 million), +5 deaths (now 30097) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +13316 cases (now 3.0 million) since 22 hours ago22:44
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Covid 19, now Omicron: Where do we go from here? @TheLancet "The USA provides a potent demonstration of the structural barriers and stymied progress in COVID-19 that can originate from political obstacles to health."thelancet.com/journals/lance… pic.twitter.com/5S7Oo3bTUb → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/147268390322368921622:47
rpifanyea id take an inactivated vaccine as well22:49
rpifanwell the first measure they should take is shut down offices22:50
rpifanan office is 100 times more deadly then a bar or club22:50
rpifanyou spend at least 40+ hours a day in there22:50
rpifanits packed full of ppl22:50
rpifanoffices are ridiculouos22:50
sdfgsdfgwasn't the media supposed to switch focus to hospitalization numbers at some point, when vaccination began or something22:54
Dredd<Arsanerit> "No, lockdown would mean people..." <- I don't know anywhere that has enforced a covid lockdown by that definition.22:59
ArsaneritDredd: several places have done that23:12
ArsaneritDredd: Spain, Melbourne, much of China.23:12
DreddOk I'll give you China 😛23:14
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Antibody-dependent enhancement of coronavirus → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rk6unn/antibodydependent_enhancement_of_coronavirus/23:16
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): This all looks promising, but omicron is not harmless! You are much better of with immunity; so get vaccinated. Together with data on reduced lung targetting and enhanced upper respiratory tract infection; we seem to be moving towards endemicity. → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/147269407363500442223:25
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): "Science has provided the tools and evidence to control the COVID-19 pandemic, but the response has been shaped by political factors and a lack of cooperation, often to the detriment of health."thelancet.com/journals/lance… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/147269439861387264023:35
BrainstormUpdates for India: +2361 cases (now 34.7 million) since 18 hours ago23:40
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Free at home Covid tests for NJ residents → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rk7i03/free_at_home_covid_tests_for_nj_residents/23:44
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Anti-vaxxers block-book appointments to stop people getting life-saving Covid jab → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rk7kyq/antivaxxers_blockbook_appointments_to_stop_people/23:54

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