Brainstorm | Updates for Lesotho: +795 cases (now 25528), +5966 tests (now 290730) since a day ago — Switzerland: +1 deaths (now 11968) since a day ago | 00:11 |
---|---|---|
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): Dette skriver Imperial College i ny rapport: "We find no evidence (for both risk of hospitalisation attendance and symptom status) of Omicron having different severity from Delta, though data on hospitalisations are still very limited." imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial… → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1472704301810204679 | 00:12 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Interesting to see within tomorrow’s @thetimes front page that @sajidjavid has asked for “rapid advice” on the feasibility of reducing the isolation period from 10 days to 7. twitter.com/samfr/status/1… → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1472710815153328140 | 00:41 |
de-facto | interesting report of experience about breakthrough infection: getting warned by Corona Warn App it took about ~5 days from contamination until Rapid Antigen Tests became positive for a breakthrough ~4-5 months after completing primary vaccinations with BioNTech/Pfizer | 00:46 |
de-facto | with positive Rapid Antigen Test they went for PCR and that also was positive | 00:47 |
de-facto | This is with Delta, prior to Omicron wave | 00:47 |
oerheks | ping | 00:48 |
de-facto | both ~40 year old and healthy | 00:48 |
de-facto | oerheks, pong | 00:48 |
LjL | so disappointing those contact tracing apps are only marginally adopted | 00:49 |
LjL | they work, after all | 00:49 |
LjL | for some definition of working, sure, they can't be perfect | 00:49 |
oerheks | leaving bt enabled, shops track and trace you | 00:49 |
LjL | i will risk that | 00:50 |
de-facto | they then got cold like symptoms, running nose, sore throat, headache, but also dry cough and she said her lung hurt | 00:50 |
LjL | :( | 00:50 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): For those who don't think it is possible to control SARS-CoV-2: In Canada, some of the provinces have led a zero-strategy, others decided to let the virus loose. Same country, different development indeed. @smbilodeau See twitter.com/DFisman/status… [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1472713870749978629 | 00:50 |
oerheks | I have dry cough, no running nose, no sense of time, and sweat like a beaver | 00:51 |
de-facto | she was am ex smoker, so she thought the vaccine may have stopped it from getting more severe | 00:51 |
de-facto | after 2 weeks they fully recovered | 00:51 |
de-facto | this is the first experience report in my social circle | 00:52 |
de-facto | oh and they said that it was very weird, they were cooking and had full taste etc, then from one SECOND to the next completely lost smell and taste | 00:53 |
LjL | yikes :( | 00:54 |
LjL | that sounds very neurological | 00:54 |
hyrc_ | https://i.imgur.com/GdPeRxz.jpg maybe my favorite smudge cat meme variant | 00:54 |
de-facto | I asked if they were serious and they confirmed in no more than a minute, they instantly completely lost their taste and smell, quite odd that its that rapid | 00:54 |
de-facto | oerheks, hmm can you measure your temp? | 00:56 |
de-facto | their family doc told them to do no sports (or high pulse scenarios) the 4 weeks after they have recovered (for 2 weeks), hence up to 6 weeks after contamination | 00:58 |
de-facto | because to avoid making possible myocarditis worse (its MUCH more likely to get that with an infection than with vaccination) | 00:58 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: Outgoing NIH director implores Fox News viewers to stay focused on the 'real enemy': The virus is the enemy, NIH Director Francis Collins said. "It's not the other people in the other political party." [... want %more?] → https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/12/19/1065676974/outgoing-nih-director-implores-fox-news-viewers-to-stay-focused-on-the-real-enem | 01:00 |
de-facto | indeed they said that they got high pulse rates for even smaller things like calmly walking up the stairs | 01:01 |
de-facto | so they had to relax for a while to let the pulse calm down, then continue with their everyday things | 01:01 |
de-facto | asked about comparing severeness with their experience of getting colds etc they immediately stated that it was much more severe, she said maybe 2-3 times worse | 01:03 |
de-facto | she thinks she got contaminated during a short talk with someone that did not wear a mask (neither did she) | 01:05 |
de-facto | now they do not get a booster because of their recovery from infection | 01:07 |
minthos | re: the canada tweet from GAN; why am I not surprised Quebec is at the top of infections? | 01:14 |
sdfgsdfg | I have runny nose and 48 hours of watery, itchy left eye - which means viral conjunctivitis. If I also develop fever in the next 24 hours I'll be sure this is covid, but I feel better today and test is negative... | 01:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Egypt: +919 cases (now 375330), +46 deaths (now 21361) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +82063 cases (now 11.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 01:32 |
sdfgsdfg | wow Saskatchewan has almost no covid cases. Does anybody ever get sick there O_o | 01:33 |
oerheks | Saskatchewan cases 82.208 deaths 942 | 01:35 |
oerheks | grinn, almost no cases? | 01:36 |
oerheks | do you get your statistics from twitter or something? | 01:36 |
LjL | you mean the same twitter as where this channel gets most of its bot posts? | 01:36 |
oerheks | Yeah :-D | 01:37 |
minthos | they had a higher case load in september | 01:37 |
Timvde | de-facto: do you know if it is always a full loss of taste and/or smell? Because this morning I was worried a bit because I had the feeling my sense of smell was diminished, but it seems to have recovered (or I just imagined it, hard to say tbh). | 01:37 |
minthos | now it's down to very little | 01:38 |
minthos | the 82k number is cumulative, not daily | 01:38 |
Timvde | minthos: cumulative since when? Because the 375k is the true cumulative number, right? | 01:39 |
minthos | where did you get 375k from? | 01:40 |
de-facto | Timvde, i do not know if its always complete (but i assume it may be), they told it was completely normal and a minute later coffee tasted like water | 01:41 |
minthos | maybe it's 82k confirmed, 375k estimated? | 01:42 |
Timvde | minthos: oh, you were talking avout Saskatchewan? I missed that line, and it matched with the Egypt numbers, nvm. | 01:42 |
minthos | yes | 01:42 |
minthos | it was uk that had 82k new cases, egypt 375k cumulative, sasketchawan 82k cumulative | 01:43 |
de-facto | careful with comparing directly between countries, testing may be very different | 01:45 |
de-facto | it even differs inside one country (e.g. if comparing 2020 with 2021) | 01:46 |
minthos | yes | 01:46 |
minthos | and also, RIP anyone who needs a hospital in the London area in the coming weeks/months | 01:47 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: U.S. professional sports leagues change their game plans as omicron infections climb: Players are benched after testing positive, games are canceled or postponed and leagues and players' unions are [... want %more?] → https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/12/19/1065685422/u-s-professional-sports-leagues-change-their-game-plans-as-omicron-infections-cl | 01:47 |
minthos | Eight Thais, from two tour groups, tested positive for the Omicron coronavirus variant after returning from an annual pilgrimage to the Islamic holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia. | 01:53 |
minthos | ^^ the real SA | 01:54 |
LjL | hyrc_, what exactly was that? | 01:55 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Togo: +128 cases (now 26678), +1 deaths (now 245), +2314 tests (now 600106) since 2 days ago | 02:10 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Making sense of Omicron @NPR My conversation with @SachaPfeiffer @npratc Where we stand and why there's room for some optimism, with many caveats npr.org/2021/12/19/106… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1472736727617839105 | 02:25 |
LjL | %title https://twitter.com/drswlong/status/1472694793654476802 | 02:27 |
Brainstorm | LjL: From twitter.com: S. Wesley Long (@drswlong): "Sunday Update: The Omicron variant is now in Houston in full force, accounting for 82% of new symptomatic Houston Methodist #COVID-19 cases as of earlier this week. [...] | 02:27 |
LjL | it may be mild but it sure takes a mildly concerning number of people to hospital | 02:27 |
LjL | the italian government seems to be moving towards mandatory vaccination for all workers, and mandatory testing for everyone (including vaccinated) for larger events | 02:32 |
LjL | also, masks outdoors (we're used to that one...) and possibly "2G" green pass (i.e. test won't be enough) for public transport | 02:33 |
minthos | if it leads to 30% fewer hospitalizations per case (just to pick a potentially plausible number) and doubles in 2 days instead of 2 weeks, hospitals will still get ~5 times as many patients | 02:33 |
minthos | or no, that's not really sound maths | 02:33 |
minthos | the hospitalization number will still double every 2 days, it just starts at a 30% lower number | 02:34 |
de-facto | will we see an approval of Novavax today? | 02:34 |
de-facto | with EMA? | 02:34 |
LjL | but meanwhile... this is our ability to detect Omicron :| https://www-iss-it.translate.goog/web/guest/primo-piano/-/asset_publisher/3f4alMwzN1Z7/content/id/5909449?_x_tr_sl=it&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=it | 02:34 |
minthos | 30% less at 2 days doubling time means a 15 hour lag for the doubling rate to catch up with the reduced hospitalization rate | 02:35 |
lastshell | hi guys how the things going, today I was on the stores people do not social distance anymore and no all folks use masks | 02:47 |
lastshell | my county said there are 2 omicron cases so I assume in reality are like 100 or more | 02:48 |
lastshell | minthos so uk is now out of ICUs ? | 02:49 |
minthos | I don't have any data on that, omicron spread is heaviest in the london area afaik and if they're not at capacity yet they will be soon | 02:49 |
de-facto | i guess Omicron will become bad in US according to people not taking delta serious they will have open transmission paths for the much more contagious Omicron | 02:52 |
de-facto | it will take 10-14 days till incidence will reach ICUs | 02:52 |
de-facto | i.e. its too early still, they will increase with delay | 02:53 |
de-facto | .title https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom | 02:58 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From coronavirus.data.gov.uk: error parsing title ('NoneType' object has no attribute 'string') | 02:58 |
de-facto | hmm thats not valid HTML they deliver there, it HAS to include a <title> | 02:59 |
LjL | well guess what lots of things don't include a <title> without javascript enabled ;( | 03:09 |
LjL | also, brb | 03:10 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +13322 cases (now 3.0 million) since 23 hours ago | 03:43 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Most of world’s covid-19 vaccines likely won’t prevent infection from Omicron → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/most-of-worlds-covid-19-vaccines-likely-wont-prevent-infection-from-omicron-7681017/ | 03:51 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Fauci says omicron variant is `just raging around the world’ → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/fauci-says-omicron-variant-is-just-raging-around-the-world-7681028/ | 04:10 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): There are also these 2 lab studies of diminished lung cell infectivity for Omicron compared with Delta, a *possible* mechanism for a difference in this variant's intrinsic activitytwitter.com/EricTopol/stat… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1472767406586007556 | 04:19 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: From blood clots to infected neurons, how COVID threatens the brain → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/rkdchs/from_blood_clots_to_infected_neurons_how_covid/ | 04:38 |
LjL | de-facto, re: loss of smell/taste (from the article above) | 04:50 |
LjL | In the monkeys, the infection appeared to start with neurons connected to the nose. But Morrison says that within a week, the virus had spread to other areas in the brain. | 04:50 |
LjL | "This is where you get into some of the neurologic symptoms that we see in humans," he says — symptoms such as cognitive impairment, brain fog, memory issues and changes in mood. "I suspect that the virus is in the regions that mediate those behaviors." | 04:50 |
de-facto | there are probably several effects on neurological functions, not all of them depending on neuroinvasive properties of the pathogen | 04:53 |
de-facto | e.g. some may also be due to immune reactions having side effects on the brain or some even due to physiological damage e.g. destroying capillary vessels etc | 04:54 |
de-facto | but yeah if may also infect neurons directly, and may fuse them together via s-protein syncytial capabilities hence spreading from cell to cell by fusing them, surely not something that makes neurons function better | 04:57 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 48 people catch COVID-19 aboard Royal Caribbean cruise → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rkdzih/48_people_catch_covid19_aboard_royal_caribbean/ | 05:16 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: UK weighing lockdown amid an Omicron wave and political turmoil → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/uk-lockdown-omicron-covid-19-wave-7681114/ | 05:45 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Zealand links 26-year-old man's death to Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rkes9y/new_zealand_links_26yearold_mans_death_to_pfizer/ | 05:55 |
Brainstorm | Updates for India: +4202 cases (now 34.7 million), +132 deaths (now 477554) since 6 hours ago | 06:00 |
Brainstorm | Updates for New York, United States: +25963 cases (now 3.0 million), +60 deaths (now 58600) since a day ago — Lima, Peru: +5836 cases (now 993426), +172 deaths (now 89268) since 7 days ago — Quebec, Canada: +3846 cases (now 485722), +3 deaths (now 11639) since a day ago — Puerto Rico, United States: +2747 cases (now 196301), +1 deaths (now 3285) since a day ago | 06:32 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: ‘A lot of uncertainty’: COVID-19 surge puts many Americans on edge about traveling → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/a-lot-of-uncertainty-covid-19-surge-puts-many-americans-on-edge-about-traveling-7681263/ | 07:30 |
Dredd | <LjL> "also, masks outdoors (we're used..." <- No 5G? 📡😂 | 07:43 |
Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +64279 cases (now 11.4 million) since 13 hours ago | 07:46 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pfizer CEO says fourth Covid vaccine doses may be needed sooner than expected due to omicron → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rkgxrd/pfizer_ceo_says_fourth_covid_vaccine_doses_may_be/ | 08:08 |
oerheks | keep selling, pfizer | 08:10 |
Timvde | A fourth one needs to be adapted though, right? | 08:15 |
Timvde | Does it really make sense to have a fourth one of the same? | 08:15 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Thailand reports first local Omicron case, eyes reinstating quarantine → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/thailand-reports-first-local-omicron-case-eyes-reinstating-quarantine-7681297/ | 08:18 |
Dredd | Hopefully the next jab will be targeting something more up to date | 08:23 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | December 20, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rki1yb/daily_discussion_thread_december_20_2021/ | 09:05 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): 2021.03: Old thread on Novavax. The fact that it works means you don't need a live cell to express the antigen on MHC Class I. Just protein deposited anywhere works. It means there's nothing really different about making a vaccine against [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1472843175932743684 | 09:24 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Delhi, India: +107 cases (now 1.4 million), +1 deaths (now 25101) since 3 hours ago | 09:32 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): A followup mini-thread with rank order of vaccine potency per dose as Pfizer = Moderna = Novavax (~83%) > J&J ~70%twitter.com/michaelzlin/st… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1472845343830151169 | 09:33 |
imaginary | what ever happened to novavax | 09:55 |
imaginary | i never hear about it anymore | 09:55 |
mrdata | did it not finish trials? | 09:58 |
mrdata | an australian vaccine didnt, i hear | 09:58 |
Timvde | imaginary: it's up for approval by the EMA literally today | 10:16 |
imaginary | Timvde: ah, good to hear | 10:17 |
Timvde | Let me find an English source :P I read it in the local news this morning | 10:17 |
Timvde | https://twitter.com/EMA_News/status/1471425962189500422 | 10:18 |
Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Long COVID in children → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rkii3h/long_covid_in_children/ | 10:31 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Israel: +761 cases (now 1.4 million) since 13 hours ago | 10:41 |
imaginary | Timvde: nice nice | 10:45 |
imaginary | thanks for the info | 10:45 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: For an antiviral researcher, Covid brings a flood of attention — and opportunity: The Covid-19 pandemic has unleashed a flood of new money for studies on antivirals, with interest surging from both the government and industry. → https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/20/covid-antivirals-research-jeffrey-glenn/ | 10:50 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Most of the world’s vaccines likely won’t prevent infection from Omicron | eKathimerini.com → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rkjm68/most_of_the_worlds_vaccines_likely_wont_prevent/ | 11:00 |
minthos | cool DIY PAPR video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cX-glTu6tz0 | 11:05 |
* enyc meows | 11:06 | |
enyc | fun | 11:06 |
enyc | UK lolitics ;/ | 11:07 |
enyc | https://www.independentsage.org/emergency-statement-on-omicron-15-december-2021/ | 11:07 |
enyc | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-99-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-16-december-2021/sage-99-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-16-december-2021 | 11:07 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): New lab neutralization titer data vs Omicron for Moderna vaccine booster (sera from 40 individuals vs pseudovirus, 1 month later) @moderna_tx 50 μg ~37-fold increase100 μg ~83-fold increase (that's very high)Raises question as to optimal booster vs Omicron [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1472869635250814980 | 11:10 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: The significance of India’s emerging “hybrid immunity”: In January 2021, shortly after India rolled out its plans for nationwide vaccination coverage, a team of researchers led by the Kerala based rheumatologist Padmanabha Shenoy, medical director of CARE... → http://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3047.short | 11:20 |
Brainstorm | New from Politico: Moderna vaccine booster shows promise against Omicron variant: Half-dose booster shown to increase neutralizing antibodies 37-fold against the newest coronavirus variant. → https://www.politico.eu/article/moderna-booster-shows-promise-against-omicron/ | 11:39 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: No evidence Omicron has lower severity than Delta variant: UK study → https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/health/no-evidence-omicron-has-lower-severity-than-delta-variant-uk-covid19-study-7681571/ | 11:49 |
xandra | you know, i wasn't sure personally about mixing & matching since i got the pfizer vaccine initially, but the more data that comes out, i'm glad i got the moderna booster. | 11:50 |
bontaq | yeah moderna seems to be generally better | 11:55 |
Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Moderna Announces Preliminary Booster Data and Updates Strategy to Address Omicron Variant → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rkknxt/moderna_announces_preliminary_booster_data_and/ | 12:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Finland: +5932 cases (now 219250), +39 deaths (now 1493), +38642 tests (now 8.4 million) since 2 days ago | 12:08 |
Brainstorm | New from ECDC: ECDC: Data on the daily number of new reported COVID-19 cases and deaths by EU/EEA country → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/data-daily-new-cases-covid-19-eueea-country | 12:18 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +218 cases (now 825954), +1 deaths (now 11574), +2725 tests (now 4.8 million) since a day ago | 12:33 |
Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Methods for the detection and characterisation of SARS-CoV-2 variants - first update: This technical report provides guidance to laboratories, microbiology experts and relevant stakeholders in making decisions on establishing or scaling up [... want %more?] → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/methods-detection-and-characterisation-sars-cov-2-variants-first-update | 12:48 |
Brainstorm | New from Politico: Health Care: Belgium extends COVID-19 vaccination to 5-11 year-old kids → https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-coronavirus-vaccination-children-5-11-years-old-schools/ | 13:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Senegal: +22 cases (now 74183), +1680 tests (now 903402) since 22 hours ago | 13:10 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: No evidence Omicron has lower severity than Delta variant: study → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/no-evidence-omicron-has-lower-severity-than-delta-variant-uk-study-7681576/ | 13:38 |
aradesh | deaths that were registered in the city of birmingham, UK, by month 2015 to present: https://i.imgur.com/cD5OQE2.png | 13:50 |
oerheks | Not all deaths are tested for covid.. also calling for an appointment for testing is almost impossible here in NL .. so numbers drop dramaticly | 13:51 |
oerheks | it is just politics | 13:51 |
aradesh | those are just registered deaths in general | 13:54 |
aradesh | covid or not | 13:54 |
aradesh | obviously the deaths from 2015 wouldn't be covid deaths | 13:54 |
aradesh | well i think countries try to test... but countries hit problems with testing capacity which can cause problems with the data for sure | 13:55 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Davos World Economic Forum called off due to Covid: Sky News → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/davos-world-economic-forum-called-off-covid-7682121/ | 13:58 |
oerheks | then again, testing statistics are of no use at all. | 13:58 |
oerheks | only when *everyone* is tested, and again for the 2nd time, things are clear | 13:58 |
oerheks | 20K more testing and we reach 3M .. out of 17M | 14:00 |
oerheks | - 50k deaths | 14:00 |
Brainstorm | Updates for UAE: +301 cases (now 744438), +1 deaths (now 2152), +272115 tests (now 107.1 million) since 23 hours ago | 14:00 |
aradesh | partial testing is better than none | 14:03 |
aradesh | you get some info at least | 14:03 |
Brainstorm | New from EMA: News and press releases: EMA recommends Nuvaxovid for authorisation in the EU, CHMP, 20/12/2021: EMA has recommended granting a conditional marketing authorisation for Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine Nuvaxovid (also known as NVX-CoV2373) to prevent COVID-... → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-recommends-nuvaxovid-authorisation-eu | 14:08 |
Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: Weekly Scientific Discussion Thread - December 20, 2021: This weekly thread is for scientific discussion pertaining to COVID-19. Please post questions about the science of this virus and disease here to collect them for others and clear up post space for [... want %more?] → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rkmqod/weekly_scientific_discussion_thread_december_20/ | 14:18 |
Brainstorm | New from Novavax: (news): Novavax Receives Positive European Medicines Agency Recommendation for Conditional Marketing Authorization of its COVID-19 Vaccine → https://ir.novavax.com/2021-12-20-Novavax-Receives-Positive-European-Medicines-Agency-Recommendation-for-Conditional-Marketing-Authorization-of-its-COVID-19-Vaccine | 14:28 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Data presented this morning investors.modernatx.com/news/news-deta… pic.twitter.com/mkAbb9rNUz → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1472921520448020488 | 14:37 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Iceland: +658 cases (now 20890) since 3 days ago — Switzerland: +14649 cases (now 1.2 million), +31 deaths (now 11999), +156241 tests (now 13.6 million) since 14 hours ago — Germany: +4310 cases (now 6.8 million) since 22 hours ago — Bangladesh: +260 cases (now 1.6 million), +2 deaths (now 28050), +19955 tests (now 11.3 million) since 23 hours ago | 14:38 |
Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: us: Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters May Provide Significant Omicron Antibodies → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-boosters-significant-omicron-antibodies | 14:47 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "Reformulation of existing mRNA vaccines to target Omicron may not be necessary with a 3-dose regimen" and lab characterization of its spike properties (reduced receptor binding, cell-cell fusion, but increased cell-to-cell transmission) [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1472927275934830599 | 14:56 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Jeffrey Barrett (@jcbarret): Weekly update at covid19.sanger.ac.uk brings another 50,000 sequences, plus some UX updates: (1) one-week (instead of 2) aggregation, to expose #Omicron's rapid rise; (2) estimated cases per lineage, by combining our proportions with the gov't dashboard case [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1472930427723816972 | 15:06 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Saudi Arabia: +146 cases (now 550988), +2 deaths (now 8864), +51340 tests (now 32.4 million) since a day ago — Fiji: +28 cases (now 52651), +764 tests (now 468032) since 3 days ago | 15:09 |
* Dredd uploaded an image: (198KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/shortestpath.dev/VeVPHjzlQKrjXRFrWvOYyJOe/Screenshot_20211220-135722.jpg > | 15:22 | |
Dredd | I was in all day on Thursday | 15:23 |
Dredd | My flatmate too | 15:23 |
oerheks | someone walked by .. | 15:23 |
Dredd | And we both got that, interestingly he got his first | 15:23 |
Dredd | So I wonder if mine just propagates from his? | 15:24 |
Tuvix | It may only check in every so often, and it's almost certainly not "linked" like that. | 15:24 |
Dredd | It says I'm supposed to have been within 2 meters for 15 minutes | 15:24 |
Tuvix | The way those apps work (if yours is the bluetooth thing) is that your phone generates an ID every 5 to 30 minutes and changes it constantly so you cannot be "tracked" by someone sniffing bluetooth signals. | 15:24 |
Tuvix | Then, every so often the app checks with whatever the provider is (usually a state agency or similar using the tech by the app's author) and sends in the list of random IDs. If yours was reported to be "near" someone else's random ID that later indicated they were positive around that time, you get that alert. | 15:25 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Covid-19: Omicron is causing more infections but fewer hospital admissions than delta, South African data show → https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/rkodvq/covid19_omicron_is_causing_more_infections_but/ | 15:25 |
lastshell | Dredd you got covid? | 15:26 |
Dredd | Yes indeed, but we are right next too each other enough so if it was to propagate exposures it could register that no problem | 15:26 |
Dredd | lastshell: Not as far as I know | 15:27 |
Tuvix | I don't know why "yesterday" would matter; your screenshot shows the exposure to the known-positive-case was on Dec-16. | 15:27 |
Tuvix | Were you out of the flat this past Thursday? | 15:27 |
Dredd | No I was in all day | 15:28 |
Tuvix | It's a bit guesswork, but from what I understand, there's more risk of not getting notification since all kinds of things can prevent bluetooth tracking being very reliable. It's also possible you were behind a wall and with next to zero shared airflow, but another tracker was able to "see" yours for long enough. | 15:28 |
Tuvix | Same way you can sometimes see your neighbor's bluetooth speakers. | 15:29 |
Dredd | Tuvix: Who mentioned yesterday? | 15:29 |
Dredd | Yeah I assume it must be an adjacent neighbour | 15:30 |
Tuvix | Oh, I missread, sorry (too many tabs open here) | 15:30 |
Dredd | No worries | 15:30 |
Timvde | Dredd: that app is next to worthless here nowadays | 15:31 |
Timvde | Pretty much nobody is using it | 15:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Namibia: +1334 cases (now 139518), +1 deaths (now 3583), +5313 tests (now 842897) since 20 hours ago | 15:34 |
Tuvix | I kind of wish the one here would give me some indication of how many trackers I was near for long enough to have a possible notification if they later tested positive, but presumably none of that is visible short of buliding my own bluetooth packet capture device out of privacy concerns. | 15:34 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Waning of vaccine protection over time, during the Delta wave in the US, associated with increase in Covid cases across all age groups and increase in deaths among age 65+ shown below evidence.nejm.org/pb-assets/evid… but there was a 2 month delay in [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1472936038230151169 | 15:35 |
de-facto[m] | .title https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-recommends-nuvaxovid-authorisation-eu | 15:39 |
Brainstorm | de-facto[m]: From www.ema.europa.eu: EMA recommends Nuvaxovid for authorisation in the EU | European Medicines Agency | 15:39 |
imaginary | de-facto[m]: nice | 15:40 |
de-facto[m] | "EMA has recommended granting a conditional marketing authorisation for Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine Nuvaxovid (also known as NVX-CoV2373) to prevent COVID-19 in people from 18 years of age." | 15:41 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Researchers develop an RNA-based breath test to detect COVID-19 → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/rkok7b/researchers_develop_an_rnabased_breath_test_to/ | 15:55 |
Brainstorm | New from WHO Euro: 2021: Year in Review: 2021 has seen a wide range of work and achievements for WHO/Europe. Since the start of the year millions of people in the European Region have been vaccinated against COVID-19. However, the pandemic is still with us as cases rise in [... want %more?] → https://www.euro.who.int/en/about-us/regional-director/news/news/2021/12/2021-year-in-review | 16:05 |
Timvde | Tuvix: microG lets you export the data | 16:09 |
Timvde | So then you have a database of ids, not sure if that would help | 16:09 |
Tuvix | It might if those were just the "near you long enough" IDs to get a raw count, though I'm in the US with some state-branded solution from one of (IIRC) Google's canned solutions for this purpose. It doesn't really matter since I'll still use the app, but don't really think it's doing much. | 16:11 |
Tuvix | I kind of figure the people using it are likely also taking other protection measures (vacines, masks, etc) and not really the largest exposure source anyway. | 16:12 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): Updated graph of the share of Omicron among confirmed cases in South Africa, England, Scotland, Denmark & Belgium. Effective reproduction number of Omicron on avg 4.1x [3.9-4.4x] higher than that of Delta & very consistent across countries (using a [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1472946174973915145 | 16:14 |
oerheks | So, Omikron gives R = 3.3? | 16:18 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Derek Lowe (@Dereklowe): Your periodic reminder: here are the most recent NYC data, and (once again) it is the *exact opposite* of what we would see if there were antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) from the vaccines:www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid… pic.twitter.com/EkN8WiPHdg → https://twitter.com/Dereklowe/status/1472948363830120456 | 16:25 |
de-facto | hey oerheks how are you doing there? | 16:28 |
oerheks | getting tested tomorrow, to be sure, i do not want to miss xmas diner | 16:29 |
de-facto | yeah understandable, makes sense | 16:29 |
de-facto | how are you feeling? | 16:29 |
oerheks | .. and helping to stop decline of infection rates | 16:29 |
de-facto | yep indeed | 16:29 |
oerheks | oke, cough, dizzy, and no running nose | 16:29 |
de-facto | wear a good mask (FFP2 or better) with airtight fit without valve when you go there | 16:30 |
oerheks | quick shopping this morning, even though i shouldn't jave | 16:30 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +6559 cases (now 1.9 million) since 23 hours ago | 16:30 |
de-facto | do you have a fever? | 16:30 |
oerheks | no, 37.8' C, so just a little higher temp | 16:32 |
de-facto | oh btw maybe drink some green or black tea, it may be of help with inactivating those virions that happen to be on the surface in your throat and also its healthy and keeps your bood circulating | 16:32 |
oerheks | got me 4 big oranges :-D | 16:32 |
de-facto | yummy :D | 16:32 |
de-facto | yeah 37.8 is only slightly elevated | 16:34 |
de-facto | still keep at distance and go for a PCR | 16:34 |
Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Veterinary medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Bovilis Blue-8, bluetongue virus vaccine (inactivated) serotype 8, Date of authorisation: 21/11/2017, Revision: 4, Status: Authorised → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/veterinary/EPAR/bovilis-blue-8 | 16:35 |
de-facto | your sense of taste/smell is normal? | 16:35 |
oerheks | no, coffee tastes funny | 16:36 |
oerheks | i did not notice i forgot to put sugar in it.. | 16:37 |
de-facto | hmm | 16:37 |
de-facto | that sounds a bit suspicious to be honest | 16:38 |
de-facto | although someone else told me the change was instantly for them, so idk | 16:38 |
de-facto | *suddenly | 16:38 |
oerheks | the lack of sense of time, dry cough makes me worried | 16:39 |
de-facto | yeah just get a PCR test and stay at distance | 16:39 |
de-facto | and really do drink green/black tea, no joke | 16:39 |
de-facto | .title https://www.mdpi.com/1420-3049/26/12/3572/htm | 16:42 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.mdpi.com: Molecules | Free Full-Text | Significant Inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 In Vitro by a Green Tea Catechin, a Catechin-Derivative, and Black Tea Galloylated Theaflavins | HTML | 16:42 |
Timvde | oerheks: 37.8°C is totally a fever for me o_o | 16:42 |
oerheks | no, officially 38'C + is fever | 16:42 |
de-facto | it only would affect those virions that happen to be on the surface though, so it can not affect those that currently are in replication cycle inside cells | 16:42 |
Timvde | "officially", but it depends on what your normal body temperature is | 16:43 |
oerheks | 37.3-37.4 ? | 16:43 |
Timvde | I'm at low 36 normally | 16:43 |
de-facto | and take some vitamin D3 if you have, possibly also things like Aspirin | 16:44 |
oerheks | i do have an ear-thermometer | 16:44 |
de-facto | (ok i am no MD so i dont have a clue, but thats what i would do) | 16:44 |
Timvde | Hmm, I usually measure under the armpit, which apparently yields an underestimation of 0.5-1 degree | 16:45 |
Timvde | (according to Wikipedia :P) | 16:45 |
de-facto | I wait for 30 min with closed mouth no drinking or eating, then measure under the tongue | 16:45 |
oerheks | I don't fear my health, i live alone, but others in this appartmentbuilding and friends | 16:45 |
Timvde | So I guess it makes sense then, my 37.8 would be 38.3-38.8 | 16:45 |
Timvde | so nvm, TIL that armpit measurement is a crazy underestimation | 16:45 |
Timvde | As long as you are consistent in measuring in the same spot, it's okay, I guess :P | 16:46 |
Tuvix | Well, having a baseline to compare to is usually more helpful, if you do even semi-regular testing. | 16:46 |
oerheks | the old plug in the butt is maybe more accurate | 16:46 |
oerheks | but the ear is conveniant, in seconds | 16:46 |
de-facto | also there is a daily oscillation of body temp, its a sinus like curve with almost an amplitude of 1 deg or such | 16:46 |
de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_body_temperature#/media/File:Body_Temp_Variation.svg | 16:47 |
de-facto | so for comparison you would need to make a curve and compare with same time of previous days | 16:47 |
de-facto | oerheks, time for some LO or GNUPlot fun :D | 16:48 |
de-facto | also maybe consider getting a pulse oximeter to measure your blood oxigenation | 16:49 |
de-facto | those are pretty cheap nowadays, 20-40€ and available in the internet everywhere | 16:49 |
Tuvix | I picked one of those up online. It's got a bit of slop on its official accuracy (and since it's not medical grade, I presume the slop might be worse than advertised) but it's a neat baseline tool. | 16:50 |
de-facto | i bought one for my parents and sent it to them, so they have their "normal" values available, just in case | 16:50 |
de-facto | Tuvix, those are surprisingly accurate though, not certified maybe, but still if you know your normal values with a device you would have a comparison | 16:51 |
Tuvix | Right, and ±2% or so isn't going to matter if I go from normal values of 96-99% down to 87% or something big. | 16:51 |
de-facto | yep exactly | 16:52 |
de-facto | i sometimes go down to 95% when i chill and have not opened the window recently, but up to 99% if i move around or go outdoors | 16:52 |
Tuvix | For indoor gatherings I've even seen mention of CO2 meters to gauge change in fresh air, but really I'm of the opinion that if you're relying on that as your metric for safe gatherings, you're probably better off not gathering anyway. | 16:53 |
Tuvix | It basically shows how much buildup of other people's air you have, but as fast as Omicron is spreading, a window won't really help. And in winter, many of us can't really do that anyway. | 16:54 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape): You must all be tired of this, but really: There is still a lot of uncertainty about omicron’s characteristics, especially its severity. Yes, there are more and more pieces of the puzzle, but they don’t fit together all that well and there are a LOT of [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1472953402565054468 | 16:54 |
de-facto | well those do give an estimate for air freshness, but even if air is exchanged regularly the other transmission paths would also need to be blocked, e.g. wearing of masks to block spitting into each others faces | 16:55 |
lastshell | that reminds me to install the merv 13 filters | 16:58 |
Tuvix | Heh, the (recirculating) HVAC at that sports club I've avoided due to lots of unvax'd uses the ultra-cheap air-filters too. | 16:59 |
Tuvix | Whatever the $2 ones you can buy at the hardware store are. | 16:59 |
Tuvix | I live alone but have decent filters just due to pets. Or, to put it another way, they live here, I just keep the place in working order for them! | 17:00 |
Tuvix | Just checked, MERV-11 here, still from last year's stockpile. | 17:02 |
Brainstorm | New from Novavax: (news): European Commission Grants Conditional Marketing Authorization for Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine → https://ir.novavax.com/2021-12-20-European-Commission-Grants-Conditional-Marketing-Authorization-for-Novavax-COVID-19-Vaccine | 17:04 |
de-facto | i think HEPA-13/14 may be needed with something like 5 air cycles each hour of the whole room volume | 17:05 |
de-facto | not sure though | 17:05 |
Tuvix | Right, here at home I'm not so worried, but that club is hopeless anyway. nevermind filters, a vax-required policy would be far, far more effective from a practical standpoint. | 17:05 |
de-facto | oh nice Brainstorm got the news feed from Novavax | 17:06 |
de-facto | yep | 17:06 |
Tuvix | the club probably only cycles at a wild guess 1/4 to 1/2 room volume each cycle, and that's perhaps 2-6 times an hour. | 17:06 |
Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: Frontline Clinician Psilocybin Study: Conditions : Burnout, Caregiver; Burnout, Professional; COVID-19; Depression; Post Traumatic Stress Disorder; Moral Injury → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05163496 | 17:14 |
Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: Evaluating Immune Response to COVID-19 Vaccines in Patients With Cancer, Transplant or Cellular Therapy Recipients: Conditions : Cancer; Hematopoietic System--Cancer; Transplant-Related Cancer; Solid Tumor Malignancy; Hematologic Malignancy; Solid Organ Transplant; [... want %more?] → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05164016 | 17:23 |
Juerd | Note that EPA 12 looks similar to HEPA 13, but needs ~4x as many cycles to clean the air the same amount. Ikea air purifiers are said to have EPA 12 filters :( | 17:23 |
xx | air filters are nice for a number of unrelated-to-covid reasons, but definitely won't help much in most scenarios | 17:26 |
de-facto | btw it would make sense to stack them, e.g. a coarse filter before a finer one to prevent blocking the fine filter with coarse particles | 17:27 |
lastshell | I got 3 air filters hepa + 2 fans with merv 13 plus the general ac of the home with 2 merv 13 | 17:27 |
lastshell | I hope that can handle 8 people full vaxxed | 17:27 |
lastshell | xmas gatherging and they will stay at least 2 weeks | 17:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +12217 cases (now 3.0 million), +36 deaths (now 20965) since 23 hours ago | 17:32 |
oerheks | Brainstorm, weird numbers... 2,992,157 positive, *juast* below 3M ... | 17:42 |
Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +27465 cases (now 11.5 million), +4682708 tests (now 389.0 million) since 22 hours ago | 18:16 |
Brainstorm | New from Novavax: (news): World Health Organization Grants Second Emergency Use Listing for Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine → https://ir.novavax.com/2021-12-20-World-Health-Organization-Grants-Second-Emergency-Use-Listing-for-Novavax-COVID-19-Vaccine | 18:22 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +16205 cases (now 5.4 million), +137 deaths (now 135778), +337222 tests (now 130.7 million) since a day ago | 18:41 |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: EMA recommends Nuvaxovid for authorisation in the EU ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/525TG6AH ) | 18:59 | |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Novavax Receives Positive European Medicines Agency Recommendation for Conditional Marketing Authorization of its COVID-19 Vaccine - Dec 20, 2021 ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/NA5UZRFS ) | 18:59 | |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: World Health Organization Grants Second Emergency Use Listing for Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine - Dec 20, 2021 ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/E8MRKUJK ) | 18:59 | |
Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Estimating Respiratory Syncytial Virus Resurgence After the COVID-19 Pandemic: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cases decreased due to COVID-19 precautions. Investigators estimated the rate and timing of RSV resurgence over the next few years. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/estimating-respiratory-syncytial-virus-resurgence-after-the-covid-19-pandemic | 19:01 |
LjL | <oerheks> Brainstorm, weird numbers... 2,992,157 positive, *juast* below 3M ... ← it's rounded... | 19:09 |
* de-facto rounds Brainstorm up | 19:14 | |
* Brainstorm starts to fit de-facto with some modest bliss | 19:14 | |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: EU approves 5th Covid-19 vaccine for bloc, one by Novavax → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/eu-approves-5th-covid-19-vaccine-for-bloc-one-by-novavax-7682646/ | 19:20 |
LjL | %title https://apnews.com/article/moderna-booster-vaccine-omicron-coronavirus-pandemic-f846e8f59aa22c9c7d198162e5cbca6b | 19:29 |
Brainstorm | LjL: From apnews.com: Moderna: Initial booster data shows good results on omicron | AP News | 19:29 |
LjL | "Moderna said lab tests showed the half-dose booster shot increased by 37 times the level of so-called neutralizing antibodies able to fight omicron. | 19:30 |
LjL | And a full-dose booster was even stronger, triggering an 83-fold jump in antibody levels, although with an increase in the usual side effects, the company said." | 19:30 |
LjL | is that roughly similar to Moderna? | 19:30 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity): Awesome work by @taka_takehiro Eriko Kudo @ericsongg @fernandocarvphd Yuki Yasumoto Yong Kong @annsea_park Milan Stoiljkovic Xiao-Bing Gao Marya Shanabrough Klara Szigeti-Buck Zhong-Wu Liu Yalan Zhang Parker Sulkowski Peter Glazer Leonard [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1472996313117691907 | 19:30 |
LjL | (except Moderna was so kind as to prevent us from having half-shot data...) | 19:30 |
LjL | err | 19:30 |
LjL | okay i'm dumb | 19:30 |
LjL | i was thinking of Novavax | 19:30 |
LjL | okay so the REAL question is, was 37 better or worse than BNT | 19:31 |
de-facto | .title https://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2021/Moderna-Announces-Preliminary-Booster-Data-and-Updates-Strategy-to-Address-Omicron-Variant/default.aspx | 19:33 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From investors.modernatx.com: Moderna - Moderna Announces Preliminary Booster Data and Updates Strategy to Address Omicron Variant | 19:33 |
de-facto | Boosting against Omicron with modeRNA/BNT = 37/25.6 = 1.45 ~ 1.67 = 50/30 so roughly expectation value, modeRNA100/modeRNA50 = 83/37 = 2.24 ~ 100/50 so its only roughly proportional | 19:45 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Good news from London, an Omicron epicenter twitter.com/alexselby1770/… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1473000378966806531 | 19:49 |
de-facto | not sure about their timing though, that is not disclosed in their press release | 19:50 |
LjL | oh so it's still better than BNT even at half dose, great for me | 19:57 |
Raf[m] | <de-facto> "Boosting against Omicron with..." <- Can you help me understand these numbers? | 19:58 |
de-facto | i just made an inappropriate comparison :P | 19:58 |
Raf[m] | I am interfering that you’re doing some calculation based on the doses | 19:58 |
de-facto | .title https://investors.biontech.de/static-files/47b4131a-0545-4a0b-a353-49b3a1d01789 <-- trying to compare this | 19:59 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From investors.biontech.de: PowerPoint-Präsentation | 19:59 |
de-facto | page 9 pVNT50 titer BNT162b2 21d after 2nd dose: Wuhan=155, Omicron=6, Beta=36 and 28d after 3rd dose: Wuhan=398(2.6x), Omicron=154(25.6x), Beta=191(5.3x) | 19:59 |
de-facto | the graph show how much a serum can be diluted until it only neutralized 50% of the pseudovirus | 20:00 |
de-facto | so comparing to the modeRNA press release claims | 20:01 |
de-facto | "All groups had low neutralizing antibody levels in the Omicron PsVNT assay prior to boosting. At day 29 post boost, the authorized 50 µg booster of mRNA-1273 increased neutralizing geometric mean titers (GMT) against Omicron to 850, which is approximately 37-fold higher than pre-boost levels. At day 29 post boost, the 100 µg dose booster of mRNA-1273 increased neutralizing GMT to 2228, which is approximately 83-fold higher than pre-boost levels." | 20:01 |
de-facto | "he multivalent candidates boosted Omicron specific neutralizing antibody levels to similarly high levels at both the 50 µg and 100 µg levels." | 20:02 |
de-facto | BNT booster is 30µg mRNA, modeRNA booster is 50µg or 100µg mRNA | 20:03 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): More on this from @JamesWard73's "hopium" on hospitalizations and possible signal of less severe Omicron illnesstwitter.com/JamesWard73/st… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1473004533999570944 | 20:08 |
LjL | de-facto, inappropriate comparison? | 20:13 |
de-facto | because i dont know if timing of titers in the modeRNA claim are comparable to those of BNT presentation | 20:13 |
LjL | i also just made this tweet https://twitter.com/BrainstormBot/status/1473008128811847690 what do you think of it and the ones around it? it starts from a Topol post but i haven't watched the video. the study they posted, i can't figure out if they used full dose Moderna, but probably yes - even so, it looks very similar to BNT to me, even with slight nitpicking over "folds" etc | 20:13 |
LjL | anyway you may want to look at that study | 20:14 |
LjL | the big difference i see in that one is that after 2x, Moderna is much better (but still probably too low). after 3x they are sort of similar... maybe more solid average for Moderna while BNT has a bit more variance | 20:15 |
LjL | figure 3 in that study is for people had had received 2x vaccination *within 3 months* (so very low titers even though it was recent!) | 20:16 |
LjL | and then recent 3x | 20:16 |
LjL | i think it also shows that people who got Janssen should get *two* doses of mRNA now, not just one, but i think you said that too | 20:17 |
de-facto | honestly i think both mRNA boosters are about the same | 20:17 |
LjL | interesting that on the wild-type virus, 3x BNT seems to be slightly *worse* than... 2x BNT! | 20:18 |
LjL | (or at least let's say there is no improvement) | 20:18 |
de-facto | the study data is taken from such few participants, that its not really representative (at least the ones in press releases its 20 ppl or such) | 20:18 |
de-facto | especially the denominators (for those very low neutralization for Omicron after 2 doses) are probably with large errors | 20:20 |
LjL | de-facto, which study do you mean? the one i showed? | 20:21 |
LjL | it says "Given its potential to escape vaccine-induced humoral immunity, we measured neutralization potency of sera from 88 mRNA-1273, 111 BNT162b, and 40 Ad26.COV2.S vaccine recipients" | 20:21 |
LjL | doesn't seem so few... | 20:21 |
LjL | this study https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.21267755v1.full.pdf | 20:22 |
yangmobi1e | What is the minimum timeframe between second and third dose of Pfizer-Biontech shot? | 20:23 |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Moderna Announces Preliminary Booster Data and Updates Strategy to Address Omicron Variant ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/FZI8CT3H ) | 20:24 | |
LjL | yangmobi1e, i think the countries that are doing it closest have a minimum of 3 months currently | 20:24 |
LjL | i.e. UK, Israel... | 20:25 |
yangmobi1e | ok | 20:25 |
Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Omicron in the U.S.: What to Know: Experts answer questions about the Omicron coronavirus variant. → https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20211220/omicron-in-us-what-to-know | 20:27 |
de-facto | LjL, i mean that if the denominator is the one that underwent the most exponential decay time it may have the biggest spread | 20:28 |
LjL | de-facto, anyway, we can assume mRNA vaccines are very similar to one another, but the quantities may make a difference, no? so if we take this study as true showing BNT and 100µg (presumably) Moderna as "very similar", then 50µg Moderna may be noticeably worse than Pfizer, potentially (or maybe not, but after all their own press release dose find about a 2x difference) | 20:28 |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine boosters induce neutralizing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/JAMEWHI5 ) | 20:28 | |
de-facto | well i think the press release should at least have similar conditions in both 50µg and 100µg trials so id take that 2.24-fold as somewhat accurate | 20:31 |
LjL | de-facto, right, in which case, it may be bad news for Moderna boosted people | 20:31 |
de-facto | but again, such small differences do not really mean anything in biology | 20:31 |
LjL | *if* the other preprint is valid | 20:31 |
de-facto | if it was an order of magnitude that may mean a difference | 20:31 |
LjL | de-facto, "twice" is a small difference? :P | 20:31 |
LjL | hm maybe | 20:31 |
de-facto | e.g. post 2nd and post 3rd dose, thats more than a log value difference | 20:32 |
de-facto | yes twice is almost not present difference | 20:32 |
LjL | certainly we're going to need data for efficacy on real people, but we'll never have reliable ones (just like with AZ before) because the different vaccines will end up having been given to different cohorts... | 20:32 |
de-facto | yes of course its only a quick estimate for expectation, only large groups of real world cases can tell the full story | 20:33 |
de-facto | honestly i would take any mRNA booster that was offered to me, be it 30µg BNT or 50µg modeRNA, i think 100µg modeRNA may even be exaggerated, better boost twice as many people | 20:36 |
LjL | https://twitter.com/BalazsLab are the people who made that study, i'm adding them to Brainstorm | 20:36 |
de-facto | beacause, heh, the more people are boosted the lower incidence and the lower *my* risk that someone contaminates me | 20:36 |
Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: News Scan for Dec 20, 2021: COVID-19 and acute kidney injury H5N1 avian flu in fox, wild birds → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/12/news-scan-dec-20-2021 | 20:37 |
LjL | de-facto, maybe, just you know, my parents have had AZ (low efficacy even against wildtype, i imagine zero against Omicron) and now they've had half-dose Moderna, and i just hope their protection is okay | 20:37 |
LjL | i find it a bit silly that everyone getting Moderna is getting half dose *but* all the studies have been on the full dose | 20:37 |
LjL | "conveniently" silly | 20:37 |
de-facto | i think it does not matter too much | 20:38 |
LjL | that's assuming the vaccine reduces incidence with omicron :P | 20:38 |
LjL | which i don't think it does, personally | 20:38 |
LjL | it barely did with Delta | 20:38 |
de-facto | yes because boosting is directly before the impact of the Omicron wave | 20:38 |
de-facto | it still will become massive in Jan/Feb | 20:38 |
de-facto | hence i am glad that i had one month in advance to "breed" on my antibodies against it | 20:39 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Cyprus: +835 cases (now 145996), +3 deaths (now 623) since a day ago | 20:39 |
LjL | i suspect Omicron is already present in large numbers in Italy, but i can't know because our sequencing is ridiculous | 20:40 |
* de-facto 's deltoid muscle almost does not hurt 3 days after injection but some lymph nodes in the armpit barely hurt a tiny bit, seems they are doing hard work there | 20:40 | |
LjL | they've just announced that based on a "quick survey" (lol, quick), Omicron prevalence is only 0.9%, but, that quick survey was completed on samples... from *9 December* | 20:40 |
LjL | obviously it can have changed a lot in 11 days since it changed a LOT in the UK | 20:40 |
LjL | it's useless to even sample it if things take so long | 20:40 |
LjL | why can't we just use SGTF tests like the UK and SA do? | 20:41 |
LjL | no, just sequence them. i mean, sequence 0.000001% of them. | 20:41 |
de-facto | 11 days? with doubling time t2 = 2.5d it would be 2^(11/2.5) = 21-fold already | 20:41 |
LjL | of course, and you can see our numbers are exponentially growing | 20:42 |
LjL | but we're "blind" on how much Omicron is in there | 20:42 |
de-facto | well its Omicron, what else would it be? | 20:42 |
de-facto | a new Italian mutant? unlikely | 20:42 |
LjL | %tr <it >en COSA NON FA L’ITALIA: “Usano in sostanza questa tecnica, chiamata SGTF, che permette di quantificare Omicron senza spesa aggiuntiva, con frequenza giornaliera, e con una ottima risoluzione. Gli Inglesi e i Danesi la usano in maniera estensiva e pubblicano dati ogni 24 ore. L’Italia no”. | 20:42 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Italian to English: WHAT ITALY DOES NOT DO: “They basically use this technique, called SGTF, which allows to quantify Omicron without additional expense, on a daily basis, and with an excellent resolution. The British and the Danes use it extensively and publish data every 24 hours. Italy no ". (MyMemory) [... want %more?] | 20:42 |
LjL | de-facto, it could just be Delta...? you had an exponential growth with Delta already, we didn't | 20:43 |
LjL | we surely could just have Delta increasing | 20:43 |
de-facto | yeah so they use special primers to identify the s-gene dropout of Omicron with PCR | 20:43 |
LjL | it's not like just because Omicron exists, Delta is like "okay, then i will not increase" | 20:43 |
LjL | yes, but they DON'T in Italy, that's what i'm saying | 20:43 |
LjL | i know what they do | 20:43 |
LjL | they are not very special, either | 20:43 |
LjL | it's just an available commercial test that happens to behave like that | 20:43 |
LjL | (of course it could be done on purpose, too) | 20:44 |
de-facto | hmm they just would have to switch the primers in their PCR i guess | 20:44 |
oerheks | AFter tomorrow i might can tell you if NL can spot omikron | 20:44 |
de-facto | anyhow Omicron will come, also to Germany and Italy unfortunately | 20:45 |
de-facto | Italy got strict inbound travelers rules, i like it, it maybe will buy you guys there a few weeks | 20:46 |
LjL | apparently we had 12 Omicron deaths in the UK as of three days ago | 20:46 |
LjL | i was still stuck at "1" (officially) | 20:46 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): And then that annoying & baseless "but we don"t know the long term consequences of these vaccines". Among 7 million doses delivered to 5-11 year old children there were only 14 reports of myocarditis. Not exactly a risk I would worry about. mRNA has a half [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1473015379492544514 | 20:46 |
LjL | 14 deaths now https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042543/20211220_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview.pdf | 20:48 |
de-facto | vaccination status? | 20:48 |
LjL | unknown to me, vaccinations are never mentioned on that report | 20:50 |
de-facto | yeah unfortunately | 20:50 |
LjL | and on https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042046/Technical_Briefing_32.pdf it says "new vaccine effectiveness data are currently being analysed and are not | 20:50 |
LjL | updated this week" | 20:50 |
de-facto | id like to see to what degree severity of Omicron progressions correlate with pre-existing immunity | 20:50 |
LjL | just the right week to stop vaccine data! | 20:50 |
de-facto | doubling times in UK still mostly *below* 2 days for Omicron | 20:51 |
de-facto | this is NOT good :/ | 20:51 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Dem. Rep. Congo: +2850 cases (now 67298) since 3 days ago — Palestine: +1575 cases (now 466669), +15 deaths (now 4870) since 4 days ago — Burundi: +1217 cases (now 22639) since 4 days ago — Sudan: +789 cases (now 45901), +43 deaths (now 3295) since 6 days ago | 21:04 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Altimmune Inc: AdCOVID → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/75/ | 21:05 |
LjL | de-facto, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1041965/20211216_Omicron_daily_infection_estimation_modelling_updated.pdf seems to say that, at least until that point, the number of estimated daily cases was more of a model than an actual measure, if i understand it correctly | 21:08 |
de-facto | also it seems like Omicron is 2.9-fold as transmissible in households compared to Delta | 21:10 |
de-facto | wow thats a lot | 21:10 |
oerheks | 3.3 | 21:10 |
Arsanerit | Are the UK in lockdown yet? | 21:13 |
ublx | nope | 21:14 |
Arsanerit | Has the government given up on their duties? | 21:14 |
ublx | last i saw they were thinking about it | 21:14 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Aivita Biomedical Inc: AV-COVID-19 → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/74/ | 21:15 |
de-facto | for a doubling time of t2 ~ 2d it would be Rt(ts=4d) = 2^(ts/t2) = 2^(4/2) = 2 ^ 2 = 4 | 21:16 |
Arsanerit | Is Novavax going to convince some voluntarily unvaccinated people to get vaccinated? | 21:16 |
de-facto | i guess for Omicron the generation time ts is lower than 4 days though, yet Rt has to be compared to same serial time to be meaningful | 21:17 |
-Bridgestorm- ⭕ Earthquake! 6.2 Mw tremor, registered by CI,EW,NC, with 32 reports, 29 early, occurred 8 minutes ago (20:10:18 UTC), during daytime, Near Coast Of Northern Calif. (40.31, -124.74), ↓9 km likely felt 790 km away (in Eureka, Fortuna…) by 38400 people — Webcams: https://www.windy.com/webcams/1596822672 https://www.windy.com/webcams/1596822670 https://www.windy.com/webcams/1596822679 (service.iris.edu) | 21:18 | |
de-facto | hmm although in LjLs link they assume "the lag between infections and specimen dates was 4 days" | 21:19 |
LjL | de-facto, yeah so i don't know what they're putting on which day. but anyway these numbers change in strange ways between reports, i'm making a spreadsheet of them and they really don't make a lot of sense to me | 21:20 |
de-facto | not sure if they assume specimen dates coincide with becoming infectious in an average infection chian | 21:20 |
LjL | (being distracted by earthquake reports now) | 21:20 |
de-facto | hmm big earthquake? | 21:20 |
de-facto | 6.2 in northern calif sounds kinda big | 21:20 |
LjL | yes, but maybe not so big because in the sea | 21:20 |
de-facto | a yeah in the sea | 21:21 |
LjL | pretty close to the coast, but if it says 38400 people, it might be away from very populated areas | 21:21 |
LjL | also, too small for a tsunami | 21:21 |
LjL | but i'm going to ask my friend in california if he felt it | 21:21 |
LjL | GFZ calls it 5.7 | 21:21 |
LjL | USGS calls it 6.2 | 21:21 |
LjL | very few felt reports for now https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc73666231/dyfi/intensity | 21:22 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Paraguay: +302 cases (now 464582), +35 deaths (now 16570) since 20 hours ago | 21:29 |
LjL | de-facto, Brainstorm did a decent job https://old.reddit.com/r/Earthquakes/comments/rkw00z/northern_california_earthquake_sismo_possibly/ except i had to manually remove a double post, because it posts twice if the epicenter "jumps" between two Flinn-Engdahl regions | 21:30 |
LjL | %wik Flinn-Engdahl region | 21:30 |
Brainstorm | LjL, no such article found on the English Wikipedia | 21:30 |
LjL | %wik Flinn–Engdahl regions | 21:30 |
Brainstorm | LjL, from English Wikipedia: The Flinn–Engdahl regions (or F–E regions) are a division of the Earth into seismic zones. In seismology, it is the standard of localizing earthquakes. The scheme was proposed in 1965 by Edward A. Flinn and E. R. Engdahl. The first official definition was published in 1974 and a revision in [... want %more?] → https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flinn–Engdahl_regions | 21:30 |
* LjL goes back to counting infections | 21:31 | |
Arsanerit | counting earthquakes is a whole lot easier | 21:31 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: AnGes: AG0302-COVID19 → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/31/ | 21:34 |
LjL | well, my conclusion with the cases is those reports are just for too few days, and the changes in the way they're reported makes them useless for now | 21:38 |
oerheks | cases are not a reliable number, deaths too .. | 21:40 |
LjL | no such thing as "reliable numbers". there are numbers, and there are interpretations of them | 21:41 |
LjL | death counts are pretty useless when there's 14 of them though | 21:41 |
Arsanerit | earthquake measurements are pretty reliable | 21:42 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Zealand says 26-year-old man's death may be linked to heart inflammation from Pfizer's Covid vaccine → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rkwjq9/new_zealand_says_26yearold_mans_death_may_be/ | 21:53 |
Tuvix | I've tried to focus on numbers that seem to mean something, like how hospitals across my local region are reporting 100% ICU capacity for going into their 4th week running now. That's usually a good warning sign. | 21:55 |
Tuvix | Got into a bad car wreck? Let's hope your local hospital has room, otherwise you may be taking a longer ride elsewhere that does. | 21:55 |
LjL | Tuvix, well no but 4th week is basically before omicron... it's just saying they were at capacity with delta alone, which makes sense given the UK's "just get one with business and let's not talk about the numbers" approach in the past couple of months ;( | 21:56 |
Tuvix | Oh yea, the hospitalization wave here is definitly delta; uptick started here (upper-midwest US, the whole MN/WI/MI area at western great-lakes) in Aug or so. The uptick is pretty sharp: https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/hosp-data.htm | 21:57 |
Tuvix | Given the 2-3 week lag in hospitalizations from cases, I'd say we're just going to start seeing hospitalization impact early Jan. | 21:57 |
Tuvix | (from omicron) | 21:57 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: University of Cambridge: "Omicron may be significantly better at evading vaccine-induced immunity, but less likely to cause severe disease" → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rkwrup/university_of_cambridge_omicron_may_be/ | 22:02 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +79704 cases (now 5.5 million), +85 deaths (now 88793) since 3 days ago | 22:07 |
Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: European nations mull tougher COVID steps as Netherlands locks down: Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News Dec 20, 2021 Other European nations battling Omicron consider taking tougher physical distancing measures. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/12/european-nations-mull-tougher-covid-steps-netherlands-locks-down | 22:12 |
LjL | ugh spain | 22:12 |
Brainstorm | New from Pfizer: Anonymous: Pfizer’s VYNDAQEL®/VYNDAMAX® Reduced the Risk of All-Cause Mortality by 41% Among Patients with Transthyretin Amyloid Cardiomyopathy, Five-Year Follow-Up Data Demonstrate → https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizers-vyndaqelrvyndamaxr-reduced-risk-all-cause-mortality | 22:41 |
xx | ugh world | 22:43 |
Arsanerit | Spain has a very high vaccination rate, what will be informative to see is how high their hospitalisation rate becomes | 22:55 |
Tuvix | I was just hearing that Denmark has approaching 80% double-vaxed, but is currently seeing a huge spike, far above last winter (and not yet finished rising it seems.) Some of these areas will indeed be a bellwether for other locations. | 22:57 |
oerheks | maybe omikron hits vaccinated harder ... | 22:58 |
lastshell | the issue if I recall is the antibodies drop after 6/8 months of the 2nd shot | 22:59 |
Tuvix | Right, though I _think_ most of the early data (and it's very early yet for hospitalization/death figures) points to even 2-dose mRNA offering some protection vs. unvaccinated. | 22:59 |
oerheks | all those pesky scientists .. the WHO is not conclusive yet | 22:59 |
Tuvix | Yup. It's so much easier in the movies! https://xkcd.com/683 | 23:00 |
Arsanerit | gn | 23:00 |
Tuvix | Arsanerit: Night. Another day, another set of slow-moving science data to appear tomorrow! | 23:00 |
Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Impact of Hospital Strain on Excess Deaths During the COVID-19 ... → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rkyecg/impact_of_hospital_strain_on_excess_deaths_during/ | 23:28 |
Brainstorm | Updates for French Guiana: +109 cases (now 46841), +1 deaths (now 337), +4059 tests (now 475616) since 3 days ago — India: +5277 cases (now 34.7 million) since 23 hours ago — Montserrat: +1 cases (now 45), +137 tests (now 3230) since 14 days ago | 23:34 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): New @AnnalsofIM 2-shot mRNA Vaccine effectiveness in over 1 million Veterans average age 69 with matched 1 million unvaccinatedEffectiveness vs infection 69%Effectiveness vs death 86%acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M2… pic.twitter.com/riHb3bDRMk → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1473057770127577088 | 23:37 |
LjL | Topol reposted this | 23:41 |
LjL | %title https://www.ft.com/content/cbd0fb0a-8c41-4b9b-aa4c-0afa10619383 | 23:41 |
Brainstorm | LjL: From www.ft.com: Omicron puts spotlight on UK’s use of lateral flow tests to stem Covid spread | Financial Times | 23:41 |
LjL | i'm not sure it's a great article | 23:41 |
oerheks | Omicron is now most common coronavirus variant in U.S., accounting for nearly three-quarters of COVID-19 cases, CDC says. | 23:46 |
oerheks | how do they tell ? | 23:46 |
oerheks | "Millions of Americans will still travel despite omicron spread" ... | 23:47 |
oerheks | 2021 is awesome | 23:47 |
LjL | it's probably just modelling since i doubt they are doing as many SGTF PCR tests as to cover 3/4 of cases | 23:48 |
Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Last week's 2.9% of cases being Omicron has been revised upward to 12.6%12.6% -->73% of new cases are now OmicronThat's what you call exponential growth, folks → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1473063283607277569 | 23:56 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Bahamas: +117 cases (now 23112), +1534 tests (now 177143) since 3 days ago | 23:59 |
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