libera/##covid-19/ Tuesday, 2021-12-21

rpifanhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seeiKH0Nz0c00:05
LjL%title00:06
BrainstormLjL: From www.youtube.com: Corona-Update: Neue Kontaktbeschränkungen & Impfstoff Novavax | DW Nachrichten - YouTube00:06
rpifanwe are getting close to novavax00:10
BrainstormNew from NPR: Omicron is now the dominant COVID strain in the U.S., making up 73% of cases: Underscoring its high transmissibility, in a week, omicron went from being detected in 12.6% of COVID-19 positive tests to 73.2%. → https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/12/20/1066083896/omicron-is-now-the-dominant-covid-strain-in-the-u-s-making-up-73-of-cases00:15
de-facto.title https://www.welt.de/bin/Expertengremium2%20_bn-235759726.pdf00:19
Brainstormde-facto: From www.welt.de: Stellungnahme Expertengremium.pdf00:19
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Good context. To add, credit the increase in US sequencing in recent weeks to get on top of this , the Omicron wave.When will @CDCgov collect and report data for hospitalizations by sequencing and vaccine status?apnews.com/article/omicro… by @MikeStobbe [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/147307133764818534500:25
LjLItaly is just pretty ridiculous. if i try to look up whether i'm considered a contact, i end up on the site of the Ministry of Health, which looks like a reasonable site to end up on, they have FAQ, then at some point... their FAQ starts talking about the differences in case i have "Beta, the Variant of Concern (VOC)"00:34
LjL...... okay, page updated on 30 November 2021 it says, but maybe just copypasted as-is on that date00:34
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): BTW that was as of Saturday. Wonder what it is 2 days later?covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… pic.twitter.com/98FRSc6B06 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/147307332118929408200:34
sdfgsdfghohoho wow00:35
sdfgsdfgthis variant spreaded in U.S faster than santa clause00:36
BrainstormUpdates for Uruguay: +361 cases (now 404821), +1 deaths (now 6156), +9622 tests (now 4.3 million) since a day ago — Netherlands: +12191 cases (now 3.0 million) since 20 hours ago — United Kingdom: +91822 cases (now 11.5 million) since 23 hours ago00:43
TuvixToo bad my gifts (given or received) won't be doubling in 2 to 3 days…00:43
rpifanany clue as to when there will be enough novavax in europe00:43
sdfgsdfgThe Novavax COVID-19 vaccine contains a protein (made using moth cells) plus an adjuvant (made from tree bark).00:44
sdfgsdfgthis thing is not mrna vaccine ?00:44
rpifannop00:44
lastshellhttps://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/586670-cdc-omicron-now-a-majority-of-us-covid-19-cases-73-percent?amp00:44
LjLno, it's the protein, pre-packaged for you, no need to build it from mRNA00:45
sdfgsdfgI'd get vaccinated with that00:45
rpifanyes me as well00:45
LjLbut also it took about a year before they actually delivered it so maybe it took them a long time to make it :P00:45
rpifanand i think i can convince my mom and grandma to get that as well00:45
TuvixIt's distinct from both mRNA and the viral-vectored approches, the latter of which is what AZ & J&J are.00:45
TuvixThis page looks pretty good if you want a general overview of how the protein-based vaccines work: https://theconversation.com/novavax-covid-vaccine-is-nearing-approval-but-what-impact-will-it-have-17164700:46
rpifani think this is a better approach to getting ppl vaxed00:47
rpifanim much more willing to trust the same tech as in the hep b vaccine00:47
rpifansomething ive alreayd had00:47
sdfgsdfg I'm honestly convinced after 2 years of resisting even the viral ones. Jab me, I hope this thing gets imported by australia00:48
spokojni[m]<how much longer until I can travel without covid passes?00:48
spokojni[m]Does anyone know?00:48
rpifanuh you need to be vaccd to tralve ot most places now00:48
rpifanor recovered00:48
LjLAustralia?00:48
spokojni[m]Uhmm I am not sure if I am recovered00:49
spokojni[m]I just want to travel inside EU before this thing started.00:49
spokojni[m]Anyone knows anything, how much longer?00:50
LjLno we have no crystal ball00:50
Tuvix"when local governments decide such restrictions are no longer necessary" is the answer.00:50
rpifanidk what eaclty you mean00:50
spokojni[m]Sucks00:51
TuvixBeyond a the delivery vector, novavax also seems useful in the context of hard-to-reach or resource-constrained locations due to the less strict storage requirements, notably no ultra-cold storage chain.00:58
LjLTuvix, apparently also hard-to-reach people in other ways00:59
TuvixMaybe, though say in the US or anywhere really where idological reasons are at play, it may not make a difference.01:00
LjLwhat i don't like01:00
LjLis Moderna's press conference today mentioning they've developed a Delta and an Omicron specific vaccine, but they are not reporting their actual neutralization unlike the 50 and 100µg regular booster01:00
LjLif they had had great results from those, they're say it, right?01:01
de-factomay depend on if they still expect to finalize some contracts about the current version01:01
TuvixIt may not be "much" different than the existing impact. I think both Pfizer & Moderna had delta-specific tweaks as soon as the sequencing was made public on both, but unless it's got a clear clinical advnatage, dealing with it is just a distraction at that point.01:01
de-factoafaik EU triggered clauses in their contract that enforces updates form the manufacturers within 100 days01:02
LjLTuvix, well i did expect them to have a clear advantage. but i'm not a vaccine developer. but also, my other line of thought is... what if first they want to maximize profits from the existing vaccines they have ;(01:03
de-factobut that would be too late for Omicron wave, hence luckily the boosters seem to work also with what we currently have available01:03
LjLso well01:03
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Omicrons extremely fast rise to dominance in the US pic.twitter.com/Y1muWLTjVI → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/147307989391531623101:03
LjLeverybody gets it anyway, but hey01:03
LjLalso they may work great for all of about 15 days for all we know01:04
de-factohonestly i am glad i got it before Omicron reaches me01:04
LjLsure, i'd rather have it than not01:04
de-factono the tests were like 1-3 months after boosting01:04
LjLwhat01:04
LjLomicron hasn't existed for 3 months01:04
de-factoso it seems to work at least in that period01:04
LjLhow the heck would they know that01:04
de-factobut boosting did01:04
de-factoneutralization tests were done right now, but with serum of people that got boosted 1-3 months in the past01:05
LjLyou can't extrapolate Delta results to Omicron though01:06
LjLwhat we recently saw is that the waning was *more pronounced* with Delta than with previous variants01:06
LjLso it's reasonable to assume (or at least to not rule out) that it would be worse with Omicron, too, or even much worse01:06
LjLthe neutralization power on one variant doesn't automatically translate over to other variants01:06
de-factoi did not propose extrapolation01:06
TuvixRealisically I don't think we'll know that until we see widespread results of serious disease or death from Omicron. Given the wave though, we'll presumably have lots of data starting in just 2 to 3 weeks.01:07
de-factoi meant the blood serum of people that got their booster 1-3 months ago can be tested today (after emergence of Omicron) for how well it can neutralize it01:07
BrainstormUpdates for Angola: +148 cases (now 66086), +11747 tests (now 1.2 million) since a day ago — Ivory Coast: +89 cases (now 62166), +4502 tests (now 1.2 million) since a day ago — Switzerland: +18 deaths (now 12017) since 10 hours ago01:07
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Good news on 2 dose in the elderly (pre-Omicron). "In an elderly, diverse, high-comorbidity population, COVID-19 VE against infection was substantially lower than previously reported, but VE against death was high."acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M2… pic.twitter.com/sFUkfHXzC9 → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/147308183904892518401:13
sdfgsdfgI wonder if there are the side effects with novavax too01:19
LjLthere are certainly "side effects"01:20
LjLthere is virtually no vaccine that lacks any side effects01:20
rpifanyea01:20
LjLwhether it has "the" side effects would depend on which ones you're thinking01:20
rpifanabsoluely01:20
LjLbut novavax published their phase 3 quite some time ago, i believe01:21
LjLso you can just read it01:21
LjLi've got a link to the interim https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.25.21252477v101:21
LjLi may lack the final01:21
de-factoof course, there is no free lunch01:22
de-facto.title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa211618501:22
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nejm.org: Efficacy and Safety of NVX-CoV2373 in Adults in the United States and Mexico | NEJM01:22
sdfgsdfgNone of the safety signals under observation with other Covid-19 vaccines20-22 were reported in this trial in the limited safety follow-up period reported here. Long-term safety monitoring is planned to continue through 24 months after initial vaccination.01:25
sdfgsdfg30,000 people is probably enough01:26
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Ryanair Boss Calls for Ban on ‘Idiot’ Anti-Vaxxers from Flying - "If you’re not vaccinated, you shouldn’t be allowed in the hospital, you shouldn’t be allowed to fly, you shouldn’t be allowed on the London Underground, and you [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rl14fx/ryanair_boss_calls_for_ban_on_idiot_antivaxxers/01:32
BrainstormUpdates for Botswana: +4837 cases (now 204701), +25380 tests (now 2.0 million) since 4 days ago01:32
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): I’d also like re-emphasize a point from an earlier thread (twitter.com/jbloom_lab/sta…). Now that we have so much amazing experimental data on #SARSCoV2 mutations, we need to put as much effort into synthesizing & visualizing it as we put into the experiments [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/147308914811004928201:41
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): Finally, all the code and described above are available here: github.com/jbloomlab/SARS… (13/n) → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/147308915049662464401:50
de-facto.title https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/novavax-nuvaxovid-covid-19-vaccine01:54
Brainstormde-facto: From www.precisionvaccinations.com: Novavax Nuvaxovid COVID-19 Vaccine — Precision Vaccinations01:54
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Update Novavax vaccine name, change format of BNT name to fit with th… → https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/617f19148fc7ead7291bbdfbc0df2b472c86785902:00
LjLhad anyone even had http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Ukraine&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&legacy=no on the radar, which corresponds to a pretty scary graph on https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country (it's the very last graph on the page)?02:01
LjLhey look, a corporate hypocrite!02:03
LjLhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-18/ryanair-boss-calls-for-ban-on-idiot-anti-vaxxers-telegraph02:03
LjLThe newspaper said that the European airline chief pushed back against compulsory vaccine programs being rolled out in Austria and Germany in an interview. Instead, governments should “make life difficult” for people who refuse to take the vaccine without good reason.02:03
LjL“If you’re not vaccinated, you shouldn’t be allowed in the hospital, you shouldn’t be allowed to fly, you shouldn’t be allowed on the London Underground, and you shouldn’t be allowed in the local supermarket or your pharmacy either,” he said.02:03
LjLso: the government sure ensure the unvaccinated are denied medical cures, but, it's not his job to stop them from flying02:04
BrainstormUpdates for Rwanda: +307 cases (now 101889), +1 deaths (now 1345), +17390 tests (now 3.8 million) since a day ago02:04
LjLokay, make sense. no it doesn't, fuck you.02:04
de-factounfortunately Ukraine is one of the European countries with lowest Vitamin D3 levels and lowest vaccination rates02:08
de-facto.title http://www.gerontologija.lt/files/edit_files/File/pdf/2012/nr_4/2012_191_198.pdf02:16
Brainstormde-facto: From www.gerontologija.lt: Vitamin D deficiency in Ukraine: A demographic and seasonal analysis02:16
de-facto"Only 4.6% of Ukrainians have been proved to have 25(ОН)D values within the normal limits; 13.6% are suffering from vitamin D insufficiency, while 81.8% were registered with vitamin D deficiency"02:17
de-facto.title https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations02:18
Brainstormde-facto: From ourworldindata.org: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data02:18
de-factoUkraine 30% complete 33% pending complete vaccinations02:18
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A reporter risked her life to show the world Covid in Wuhan. Now she may not survive jail. → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rl2dbx/a_reporter_risked_her_life_to_show_the_world/02:28
LjLde-facto, uh well at least i guess a *lot* of ukrainians get tested for vitamin D in the first place...02:30
LjLunless that's a small random sampling02:30
LjLoh yeah it makes up 100% doesn't it, so random sampling02:30
LjLthis vitamin D thing should be clarified once and for all, anyway02:32
LjLeither it's a "correlation myth" and not causative, in which case they should prove it, and we can stop with the myth02:33
de-factotake that vitamin, it helps, it for sure wont hurt02:33
LjLor it's actually causative, in which case governments needs to make a big (but much easier than vaccines!) effort to get everybody to take vitamin D02:33
LjLyes i'm taking it02:33
LjLbut i'm only me02:33
de-factoim taking 50µg daily since the very start of the pandemic02:33
LjLit's ridiculous that two years into the pandemic we still have to *debate* whether it helps or not, and meanwhile, like many other things, it slowly becomes a "fringe thing"02:34
de-factoi am pretty sure it helps02:34
de-factoits not a game changer but it does help a bit, so adding together all the things that help make a stronger stand against impact when it arrives02:35
de-factoof course it only helps if one is deficit, but since i am a nerd i dont get much sunlight :P02:40
de-factoso i supplement it02:40
BrainstormUpdates for Channel Islands: +637 cases (now 22304) since 3 days ago — Gabon: +87 cases (now 37830), +1 deaths (now 286), +3143 tests (now 1.5 million) since 3 days ago02:41
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US records first death believed related to Omicron variant, media report → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/us-omicron-death-covid-variant-7682833/02:48
de-factobtw i think it would be a good idea to prepare for a lockdown, i dont see how we would circumvent it in Jan/Feb in Europe02:55
de-factowe are going to be fine, but we will require a lockdown with strict contact reduction in order to regain control, and this time it really would need to be stricter than before, because of Omicron's crazy fast spread02:56
BrainstormUpdates for San Marino: +153 cases (now 7160), +1 deaths (now 96), +1214 tests (now 99475) since 3 days ago03:06
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Ruslan Medzhitov (@RMedzhitov): Just finished watching ‘In the same breath’ - a documentary by Nanfu Wang about the pandemic from its early days in Wuhan. Heavy stuff. A must watch. → https://twitter.com/RMedzhitov/status/147311105119352832803:07
Justin[m]1de-facto: LjL Which vitamin D supplements do you use?03:11
LjLmine is not technically a supplement, it's classified as a drug and sold under prescription03:11
LjLgenerally speaking i would recommend something that's in fatty medium (oil, although the taste is bleh)03:12
LjLavoid tablets and the like as it's probably metabolized less03:12
de-factonothing special, just one from our local supermarket03:12
de-factoi take it together with breakfast03:13
de-factoi take one without K2 because my dose of 50µg its less than 100µg03:14
de-factobtw i am wondering, why are we not seeing a Delta decline in UK right now caused by Omicron?03:24
de-factois that a sign that Omicron induced immunity is not working against Delta or is it simply too early for such an effect to show up?03:25
de-factodistinct groups maybe?03:25
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD  (@michaelzlin): It's a bit odd when people warn SA is not representative of Western countries due to high seroprevalence >70%. Most Western countries are at the same from vaccination >60% and prev infection >25%. No linkage gives sero+ >70%. If no vax linked to prev [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/147311589235550617603:26
de-factohmm omicron probably still is quite localized around initial seeding in UK, while Delta had quite some time to diffuse through community03:28
de-factoso maybe they just dont overlap enough yet?03:28
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: How COVID vaccines shaped 2021 in eight powerful charts ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/KNTFHKMT )03:28
BrainstormUpdates for Bermuda: +102 cases (now 5917), +8342 tests (now 679407) since 4 days ago — United Kingdom: +92450 cases (now 11.5 million) since 19 hours ago — St. Kitts and Nevis: +7 cases (now 2808) since 3 days ago — Anguilla: +37 cases (now 1629), +1 deaths (now 5) since 6 days ago03:31
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Reduced Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant by Vaccine Sera and Monoclonal Antibodies → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rl3sfd/reduced_neutralization_of_sarscov2_omicron/03:45
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: UK’s Johnson says ‘we’re looking at all kinds of things’ to tackle Omicron → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/uks-johnson-says-were-looking-at-all-kinds-of-things-to-tackle-omicron-7682868/04:14
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66): In addition, updates to information on the 21K (Omicron) page & some typo fixes, thanks to @youngvintage69 & @PietroMonticone! Thank you both so much for contributing! 2/2 → https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/147312990071023616804:23
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +99 cases (now 3.0 million) since 11 hours ago04:33
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Coronavirus LIVE Updates: Texas Man 1st to Die in US from Omicron as Strain Dominates Nation; Saudi to Allow Covaxin-Jabbed Indians. → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rl555c/coronavirus_live_updates_texas_man_1st_to_die_in/04:52
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Omicron infections appear no less severe than Delta; COVID-19 lowers sperm count, motility → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/omicron-infections-appear-no-less-severe-than-delta-covid-19-lowers-sperm-count-motility-7682898/05:02
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +17390 cases (now 2.0 million), +97 deaths (now 27992) since 2 days ago05:36
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US faces another Covid Christmas as Omicron fuels a rise in cases → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/us-faces-another-covid-christmas-as-omicron-fuels-a-rise-in-cases/05:39
BrainstormUpdates for India: +4251 cases (now 34.8 million), +453 deaths (now 478007), +2017294 tests (now 666.1 million) since 6 hours ago06:01
oerheksprikspijt ( jab-regret) dutch word of the year 2021 .. never heard of it though06:01
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japan tries to solve the riddle of its dramatic drop in COVID cases → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rl6e2f/japan_tries_to_solve_the_riddle_of_its_dramatic/06:08
LjLoerheks, why are people regretting their jab if they got it in the first place?06:10
oerheksbecause friends/family have an opinion.06:10
oerheksi hear the booster jab does damage.. sofar: 1 problem in 1,2 million06:11
oerhekshoax is the way to get attention these days06:11
oerheks"hear me, i know something"06:11
BrainstormUpdates for Illinois, United States: +31459 cases (now 2.0 million), +111 deaths (now 29661) since 2 days ago — California, United States: +19227 cases (now 5.2 million), +99 deaths (now 75826) since a day ago — Massachusetts, United States: +14212 cases (now 1.0 million), +36 deaths (now 19865) since 2 days ago [... want %more?]06:38
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO sounds warning over fast-spreading Omicron → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rl7l2h/who_sounds_warning_over_fastspreading_omicron/07:04
BrainstormNew from MedicineNet: (news): Pfizer Vaccine Disappoints in Kids Ages 2 to 5 → http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp07:51
sdfgsdfgI have the Swisse  's product, Vitamin D07:56
sdfgsdfgit seems to be oil, not tablet.. Thanks for the tip LjL07:57
sdfgsdfgI wonder if infection with Omicron protects against Delta08:02
sdfgsdfgthere are so many new combinations now, also with Novavax joining in08:02
DescartesWhich vaccines provide the best immunity against the Omicron variant?08:02
sdfgsdfgI don't think we have the answer to that but prove me wrong..08:03
sdfgsdfgI heard Novavax will release research on omicron immunity soon08:03
DescartesI think my booster will proably be an mRNA like Pfizer or Moderna, so I probably don't have a choice08:03
sdfgsdfgthe mrna vaccines seem to be around 70% protective right after getting the 3rd dose08:04
DescartesAlso, what is the ideal period of time between second dose and booster for maximum immunity?08:04
sdfgsdfgEric Topol shared all the 5 different researches on omicron neutralization by different labs08:04
DescartesYou have links for that?08:05
sdfgsdfgok I'll look it up08:05
sdfgsdfgthis is one of them https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146900180936042496808:05
DescartesI read a BBC article that noted  from a UK Pitch Study at Oxford University that those who got their second mRNA dose 8 weeks after the first had strongest immune response overall, a higher proportion of helper T-Cells, and the highest level of neutralizing antibodies08:08
DescartesBut what is the ideal length of time between second dose and booster?08:09
sdfgsdfgthat subject unfortunately reveals the conflict of interest and politics in science08:11
sdfgsdfgbecause there are 5869349 different papers that say it's x months, 3 months, 6 months 9 months08:11
sdfgsdfgmaybe I'm quoting the news articles with this one, I couldn't point to an academic paper08:12
sdfgsdfgwaning of immunity is complex though08:13
sdfgsdfgI hope someone helps us clarify this, I'm confused on that too08:13
DescartesBut may be being pragmatic is a better approach then looking for precision08:14
DescartesFor example, may be we just need to know when is it safest to get a booster as soon as you can after the second vaccine, so there's no danger of overwhelming your immune system by taking vaccines too close together08:15
sdfgsdfgok, light on this...08:15
sdfgsdfgthe israeli study says https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa211422808:15
sdfgsdfgAmong persons 60 years of age or older, the rate of infection in the July 11–31 period was higher among persons who became fully vaccinated in January 2021 (when they were first eligible) than among those fully vaccinated 2 months later, in March (rate ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3 to 2.0).08:16
DescartesCause I figure, as long as your immune system has fully responded to the second vaccine  and your T-cells are back to normal, and your immune system is functioning optimally, it's probably safe to get the booster08:17
sdfgsdfgit also mentions difference in severity of disease, not just rate of infection08:17
sdfgsdfgbut as you can see, these are breakthrough israeli studies, this one is from 9 December 2021, from 2 weeks ago08:18
sdfgsdfgand I guess they don't have the data on booster waning08:18
sdfgsdfgmaybe the booster wanes faster than 2 dose immunity waning08:18
sdfgsdfgeven with this article fully-vaccinated means 2 dose08:19
DescartesWhen did those 60+ people get their boosters?  You just mentioned when they got their second vaccine08:20
sdfgsdfgI have no idea08:21
DescartesOh, the difference was 6 months later versus 8 months later for their boosters?08:22
sdfgsdfgno I think they don't even have the data on boosters immunity waning08:22
sdfgsdfgI thought it was relevant08:22
sdfgsdfgsorri08:23
DescartesBut they can estimate an ideal time period based on data on the waning of T-cells and neutralizing antibodies after the second vaccine because there must have been a lot of people who got their second vaccine like anywhere from 3 months ago to say 6 months ago08:24
Descartesthey just have to monitor their immune systems and not even give them a booster to get an idea when is a good time for a booster08:25
sdfgsdfgnow we need this thing to start circulating in israel to get their data08:27
Descartesthen may be a year from now, they can harden up that data with experimental evidence from what happened after the booster based on the schedule followed.  I don't expect that info available now, I just expect estimates that anticipate the best schedule for the booster08:27
sdfgsdfgthey're the first ones that started with boosters08:27
DescartesIsn't that what the health authorities did when they started vaccinating people with their second shot?  They didn't yet have experimental evidence but they were estimating optimum immunity based on just monitoring the patients' T-cells and neutralizing antibodies and overall immune response08:29
Descartesand it turns out the virologists who had estimatted 8 weeks would be an ideal time were right.  3 weeks still got strong immune responses overall, high levels of T-cells but fewer neutralizing antibodies08:31
sdfgsdfgthat's the thing with estimates though, you could be getting paid a huuuge amount of money to estimate X, which will benefit a lot of people08:31
Descartesthose who got their second dose 10 weeks after had strong immune responses overall, a higher proportion of helper T-cells for immune memory but had fewer T-cells overall08:32
Descartesso the sweet spot was 8 weeks, and that matched some of the predictions of some of the virologists, so why can't we anticipate a sweet spot now the same way but for the booster shot?08:33
sdfgsdfgwhen I see media news articles like "KIDS ARE DYING!", this is what I think about. No the kids aren't dying, the few that died had really serious conditions and it wasn't mentioned by these articles.08:34
sdfgsdfgDescartes hope they find the sweet spot, I heard the 2 months mark too :D08:35
DescartesChildren are always dying of childhood diseases, especially when they are malnutritioned, live in poverty, in developing nations with bad healthcare and don't have access to vaccines08:35
DescartesIt's just ridiculous when parents in developed countries choose not to get their children vaccinated, meanwhile parents of children in developing nations are desperately trying to get their children vaccinated but facing all kinds of economic and political obstacles that threaten the whole family's lives08:39
sdfgsdfgdo you think we should definitely jab every baby every x months ?08:44
sdfgsdfgand force those mothers to get their babies jabbed08:44
sdfgsdfgand should this be mandated ??08:44
sdfgsdfgit's a crazy topic08:44
Descarteshttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/booster-shot.html08:47
mrdatahi08:47
Descarteshello mrdata08:47
DescartesLooks like 6 months may be an ideal time to get your coronavirus booster shot08:48
mrdatayeah, i qualify now08:48
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): As @ThatRyanChap says, it’s really not clear where this 17 day average has come from - recently quoted by @sajidjavid too.An @ONS survey suggests the lag is shorter - and given the reduced incubation period with Omicron it could be more like ~8-9 [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/147319598838698803308:48
mrdatabut it isnt available08:48
Descartesthe CDC recommends 6 months as per the link I posted above08:49
sdfgsdfgI think we are ignoring the statistics here, you should really check how many of these kids are getting sick and how many of them just have very mild symptoms and how many of them die08:49
DescartesI don't have children, so I'm more concerned about the vaccine schedule for adults08:50
DescartesAlso, I'm not working with children and don't even visit any relatives who have children, so my primary concern now is adults08:55
DescartesIf I ever get infected, it would most likely be from an adult08:57
DescartesAnd probably an unvaccinated adult with the Omicron variant08:58
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): As Prof Marc Mendelson @SouthAfricanASP highlights  highlight the world and many developed countries (due to cancer, advanced age, organ transplant, etc) have a huge population of people with suppressed immunity for other reasons which needs to be prioritized [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/147319876145528012808:58
DescartesAdvanced age in developing nations?09:01
sdfgsdfgThe social structure, religious beliefs, economic prosperity and urbanisation within each country are likely to affect birth rates as well as abortion rates, Developed countries tend to have a lower fertility rate due to lifestyle choices associated with economic affluence where mortality rates are low, birth control is easily accessible and children often can become an economic drain caused by housing, education cost and other cost involved in09:04
sdfgsdfg bringing up children. Higher education and professional careers often mean that women have children late in life. This can result in a demographic economic paradox.09:04
sdfgsdfgref: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4255510/09:05
DescartesOld people getting infected with the coronavirus is primarily an issue of concern in developed nations, and one that has not been handled well in Canada.  It's especially bad in the old age homes09:07
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | December 21, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rl9ovx/daily_discussion_thread_december_21_2021/09:07
DescartesMy biggest issue is how to deal with relatives and people at work who refuse to get vaccinated.  Such conversations are always awkward, but probably necessary.09:11
DescartesVaccination can literally mean the difference between life and death.  But you can also get seriously ill, suffer greatly, even for a long time, if you get infected from sb who is not vaccinated or who is not taking simple precautions09:12
Descartesso those awkward conversations may be worth a try, even if you fail to communicate effectively with them09:13
DescartesI guess using empathy and positive reinforcement is a good strategy to use when talking to vaccine-hesitant people, because most of them don't respond well to science and facts09:17
DescartesOften they will refer to inaccurate information from unreliable sources to engage in a pseudo-scientific conversation, and that's the most annoying and frustrating for me09:18
DescartesAlso frustrating is when a vaccine-hesitant person, or even worse an anti-vaxxer, turns a conversation that should be about science and biology into a conversation about politics09:22
finely[m]I vaguely remember a study that had doctors needing 6 interactions on average to change someone from vaccine hestitant to willing. As powerful as science is in divining the truth, most people just don't think like that.09:22
DescartesWow, 6 interactions, and that's sb in a position of authority09:23
DescartesI've had about 15 to 20 discussions with my sister about vaccination, and she still insists that getting vaccinated is too dangerous and would not benefit her health09:24
finely[m]Hopefully most people can be convinced before its too late for them.09:24
Descartesher boyfriend is even worse.  He told his 90 year old mom not to get vaccinated.09:24
finely[m]Sorry to hear that.09:25
DescartesShe told her son, "I'm getting vaccinated, and you're not going to change my mind."  She did it and she's still alive.09:25
DescartesI think it would be ironic if she lives longer than her son09:26
finely[m]sdfgsdfg: societies with no social safety net and poor health care tend to have large family sizes. To make up for many infants dying and to provide some support for the parents in old age.09:27
DescartesMeanwhile, her son is still not vaccinated and continues to visit her and eat dinner with her.09:27
finely[m]Twice weekly rapid antigen testing might make the best of a bad situation.09:28
Descartesyeah, both my sister and her boyfriend should get tested before they visit my mother09:29
DescartesBut they have never got tested and I don't think my sister has even talked to her family doctor about the risks09:29
humpelstilzchen[should't they get tested anyway before a visit? Vaccinated or not?09:30
DescartesI should just ask my sister to talk to her doctor and get tested before she visits my mother, now that the Omicron variant is spreading so quickly in Ontario09:30
finely[m]<Descartes> "Looks like 6 months may be an..." <- UK is doing three month, partly because AZ wanes quicker and seems to be less effective with Omcron.09:30
DescartesI brought up the issue of testing to my sister before, and she said the tests are not reliable09:31
DescartesBut in reality, I suspect the tests are getting more reliable than what they were using in the past.  How reliable are the rapid antigen tests for coronavirus infections?09:32
BrainstormUpdates for Balochistan, Pakistan: +29 cases (now 33587) since a day ago09:33
finely[m]They are good enough if you repeat them. Not perfect, but could avoid a disaster. Stocking stuffer for the grandmother?09:33
DescartesAlso, my sister needs to get tested on the same day she visits my Mom, because the Omicron virus can infect you and spread quickly, making you infectious to people in a short period of time09:33
finely[m]Yes, not sure how Omicron will change the advice for testing.09:34
Descartesthat would be a good Xmas gift to my sister and her bf, a rapid antigen test09:34
finely[m]If you are in the southern hemisphere, gathering outside is probably smart.09:35
Descartesoh, you mean if you take the test 2 or 3 times in a row, it makes the rapid antigen test more accurate and reliable?09:35
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): When best to use which tests. Going from detection to control and reduce  thelancet.com/journals/lance… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/147320826980411802309:35
finely[m]Yes, spread out over time as you want to catch the infection as early as you can. And repeating a test that isn't 100% against false negatives ups the chance of detecting an infection.09:38
DescartesWow, you can even give yourself a rapid antigen test right after your vaccination?09:38
Descartesto see how effective the vaccine was?09:39
DescartesDo you have any links to rapid antigen tests in Ontario and Manitoba, Canada?09:39
finely[m]I don't think so. Maybe try pharmacies?09:43
finely[m]Looks like there are supply problems.09:47
finely[m]https://rapidtestandtrace.ca/product/5-pack-btnx-rapid-response-covid-19-antigen-test/?ref=7dnzcrzveq09:47
finely[m]Good luck and happy holidays.09:49
Descartesthanks you too09:51
Descarteshttps://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/12/15/free-rapid-covid-tests-already-popping-up-around-toronto-part-of-a-holiday-testing-blitz.html09:52
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD  (@michaelzlin): With Omicron I feel like I'm going out on a limb in the other direction for the first time. This wave resulting in fewer deaths per case than earlier ones seems the most parsimonious prediction from findings so far. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/147321537118839193710:03
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD  (@michaelzlin): It's also what we'd predict from our existing immunity levels and omicron evasiveness: when you have something that creates a high rate of breakthru cases but 80% of popn has some immunity, then you expect a low death/case ratio. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/147321537278230528010:13
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK says COVID surge 'extremely difficult' as Omicron grips Europe → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rlak7i/uk_says_covid_surge_extremely_difficult_as/10:22
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israel logs over 1,000 COVID cases for second straight day → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rlasew/israel_logs_over_1000_covid_cases_for_second/10:31
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): This would be a sensible move to help reduce the spread of Omicron, assuming we have enough supply of LFTs. It doesn’t guarantee you won’t pass it on, but it will help. And I know many people that are doing this already.I hope this is being [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/147322637507928064410:41
BrainstormUpdates for Estonia: +861 cases (now 233367), +5 deaths (now 1893), +7583 tests (now 2.5 million) since 21 hours ago10:41
oerheksplausible: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0191326/10:50
oerheks'An alien takes over the body of an Earthman in order to learn about the planet so his race can take it over'10:50
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Feeling powerless, families bring elderly home in pandemic → https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/life-style/feeling-powerless-families-bring-elderly-home-pandemic-7683331/10:51
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): Effekt av vaksinene mot infeksjon med omikron etter 2 doser Pfizer er p.t. anslått til å ligge på 0-20%. Det er lite å skryte av! Effekten er anslått å øke til 55-80% etter 3. dose. Det kan ha en svær, og avgjørende effekt i møte med et så [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/147323081721631539511:00
oerheks Boston announces that it will now begin banning the unvaccinated from entering all restaurants, bars, nightclubs, sports arenas, fitness centers, movie theaters, concert venues, museums ...11:04
BrainstormNew from StatNews: White House to buy, ship 500 million rapid tests for free beginning in January: In a major reversal, the White House announced it will soon buy 500 million rapid tests for Covid-19 and ship them to Americans for free. → https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/21/white-house-to-buy-ship-500-million-rapid-tests-for-free-beginning-in-january/11:10
oerheks'Biden spent time with 'mid-level staff member' who tested positive for COVID, was "fully vaccinated and boosted"11:12
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): I hadn’t noticed this, but the guidance on self isolation has been updated on the NHS website.There’s no longer any distinction made for close contacts of suspected Omicron cases. Instead of isolation you’re “strongly advised” to take daily [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/147323600590600602311:20
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +18843 cases (now 6.8 million) since 20 hours ago11:31
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Compared with SARS-CoV2 wild type’s spike protein, the SARS-CoV2 omicron’s receptor binding motif has adopted a more SARS-CoV1 and/or bat/civet-like structure → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rlbvwa/compared_with_sarscov2_wild_types_spike_protein/11:48
enychrrm11:55
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China says Donald Trump "first to blame" for COVID devastation: China says Donald Trump is trying to "shift blame" for his administration's poor pandemic response, after the former president said Beijing "has to pay" for COVID-19. → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rlc2h4/china_says_donald_trump_first_to_blame_for_covid/11:59
BrainstormNew from ScienceNews: The omicron variant is surging. Here’s what we’ve learned so far: Omicron is better at evading virus-attacking antibodies than previous coronavirus variants, but there are signs booster shots might help curb symptoms. → https://www.sciencenews.org/article/omicron-coronavirus-covid-variant-severity-antibodies12:08
BrainstormUpdates for Latvia: +991 cases (now 268456), +12 deaths (now 4466), +11282 tests (now 5.5 million) since a day ago — Nepal: +252 cases (now 826206), +3 deaths (now 11577), +12473 tests (now 4.8 million) since 23 hours ago12:08
TimvdeA third Moderna shot it is (we can't choose)12:24
BrainstormNew from ECDC: Data on COVID-19 vaccination in the EU/EEA: Data in various file formats with information on COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, manufacturers, and target groups in the EU/EEA. → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/data-covid-19-vaccination-eu-eea12:28
BrainstormUpdates for Zambia: +1906 cases (now 219023), +1 deaths (now 3685), +12676 tests (now 2.8 million) since 21 hours ago — Cayman Is.: +148 cases (now 8245) since 3 days ago12:33
BrainstormNew from Politico: Airlines: Commission sets 9-month duration for vaccine certificates from February 1 → https://www.politico.eu/article/commission-sets-9-month-duration-for-vaccine-certificates-from-february-1/13:15
BrainstormNew from Politico: Coronavirus: Hungary rejoins EU’s third vaccine procurement scheme in the face of Omicron variant → https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-joins-eu-third-vaccine-procurement-scheme-omicron-variant/13:25
BrainstormUpdates for Malta: +386 cases (now 42491) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +92716 cases (now 11.5 million) since 22 hours ago13:36
oerheksBack from testing corona covid, now waiting for the mail...14:00
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Effectiveness of BNT162b2 (Comirnaty, Pfizer-BioNTech) COVID-19 booster vaccine against COVID-19 related symptoms and hospitalisation in England: test negative case-control study → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rldw55/effectiveness_of_bnt162b2_comirnaty/14:04
darsiehttps://old.reddit.com/r/QAnonCasualties/comments/rakxun/my_career_of_treating_patients_has_ended/14:10
oerheksMP came up with the Question; in NL there is an excess mortality of 1000 persons/week, in 13 weeks registered corona deaths are 2300, difference of 10.00014:11
oerheks*ploink*14:11
oerhekshttps://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/100155613/onrust-om-hoge-oversterfte-duizend-extra-doden-per-week-dat-vraagt-om-onderzoek14:11
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): 500 million free rapid antigen tests to be distributed on request starting next month in the US. A start (finally), but billions are needed to help prevent spreadnytimes.com/2021/12/21/us/… by @SherylNYT pic.twitter.com/UjllN5no6W → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/147327959416997888014:13
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): This anti-covid pill intervention is the most important advance since vaccines for the pandemic. But we can't rely on one company to make it theguardian.com/commentisfree/…My new oped @guardian pic.twitter.com/g2H2nji6F2 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/147328456444120269014:33
BrainstormUpdates for UAE: +452 cases (now 744890), +2 deaths (now 2154), +396090 tests (now 107.5 million) since a day ago — Qatar: +183 cases (now 246897), +6257 tests (now 3.1 million) since a day ago — Switzerland: +2313 cases (now 1.2 million), +37 deaths (now 12036), +50782 tests (now 13.7 million) since 23 hours ago14:38
BrainstormNew from Politico: UK unveils new support for hospitality as Omicron bites: The support package for hospitality businesses includes one-off grants, covering costs of statutory sick pay for COVID-19-related absences and more. → https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-rishi-sunak-new-covid-19-support-package-omicron/14:52
BrainstormUpdates for Sweden: +12681 cases (now 1.3 million) since 3 days ago — Uganda: +357 cases (now 129676), +6031 tests (now 2.1 million) since 23 hours ago — Saudi Arabia: +222 cases (now 551210), +1 deaths (now 8865), +57354 tests (now 32.5 million) since 23 hours ago15:03
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Moderna says booster shot raises antibody levels to thwart Omicron; Sanofi buys yet another biotech → https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2021/12/21/covid19-omicron-vaccine-moderna-sanofi-insider-trading/15:21
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +22164 cases (now 6.8 million) since 23 hours ago — Bangladesh: +291 cases (now 1.6 million), +1 deaths (now 28051), +20909 tests (now 11.3 million) since a day ago15:40
Dredd<darsie> "https://old.reddit.com/r/..." <- Chilling stuff15:40
BrainstormNew from EMA: Human medicine assessment reports: (news): Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, COVID-19 vaccine (Ad26.COV2-S [recombinant]), COVID-19 virus infection, Date of authorisation: 11/03/2021, Revision: 13, Status: Authorised → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/covid-19-vaccine-janssen15:41
oerheksyes, NL passed the 3m cases +9,304 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/15:53
xxby how much has NL population increased in the last 2 years?15:54
Dredd<LjL> "or it's actually causative, in..." <- UK policy is that everyone should take multivitamins that contain it in sufficient quantity15:55
oerheksxx dunno15:56
oerheks<oerheks> MP came up with the Question; in NL there is an excess mortality of 1000 persons/week, in 13 weeks registered corona deaths are 2300, difference of 10.00015:56
xxin NL, there's excess population increase compared to predictions as well15:56
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): Very wise judgment from Drosten! Getting firm answers from #Omicron in the lab may well take until Easter, Drosten says. By that time, the world may have learned how much severe disease the variant causes the hard way. “So we would do well to be very careful [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/147330535008647577716:00
DreddHmm, I still have some sort of dry cough and feel generally unwell16:05
DreddDone three LFTs though on different days and they were all negative16:05
xxfeeling generally unwell is a natural reaction to seeing the outside world16:06
xxbest to be avoided16:06
oerheksno sense of time? temperature check?16:08
BrainstormNew from The Lancet (Online): [Comment] Oral health problems are global and need to be addressed in the USA: The COVID-19 pandemic has shown unequivocally that science, innovation, collaboration, and leadership are important for the health and wellbeing of all people. In the USA, [... want %more?] → https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02842-7/fulltext16:10
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Deep roots of vaccine hesitancy. And the arguments that do not seem to change, no matter the volume and clarity of the evidence.nybooks.com/daily/2021/12/… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/147331012743237632216:20
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Just published @ScienceTM This is great news on the Beta variant (with a lot of immune evasion vs our antibodies): Preservation of the T cell response. Let's hope it's the same for Omicron (likely), protecting well vs severe illness w/science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… @UCTHealthSci → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/147331182663286784016:30
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +16398 cases (now 1.9 million), +26 deaths (now 30123) since 22 hours ago16:30
Dredd<oerheks> "no sense of time? temperature..." <- Fine16:35
BrainstormNew from Politico: Germany recommends COVID-19 boosters after 3 months: Berlin steps up pace on booster shots as it seeks to ward off the Omicron coronavirus variant. → https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-recommends-covid-19-boosters-after-3-months/16:40
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): French govt says more than one in three cases in Paris is now Omicron, which on its own shows why the travel ban was never justified, but that’s based on data from last week, and Omi is now highly likely to be dominant, as @flodebarre & @touna14 have [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/147331744824188518416:51
LjL-MatrixDredd: yes but it was UK policy (for vitamin D at least) before covid too, and I suppose I applaud them for that but basically it's a page somewhere on the NHS that most people will disregard. And other governments don't have indications for vitamin D at all mostly, except if there is a known (as in measured) deficiency. *If* lack of vitamin D has a causative role in COVID or COVID severity, that won't do16:53
DreddThat's what I meant, it's just generally advised here to take vitamins as a lot of people are deficient in something or other16:56
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Latest London hospital data (confirmed COVID-19 admissions):Beds occupied - 1,904 vs 1,819 yesterday and 1,349 last Tuesday (41% up)Ventilator beds occupied - 201 vs 206 yesterday and 194 last Tuesday (4% up)245 new admissions on Sunday vs 157 the [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/147332185004645990817:00
BrainstormNew from LitCovid: (news): Antidepressant drug treatment protecting from COVID-19: one more piece in the repurposing puzzle. → https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/publication/3492409517:10
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +9366 cases (now 3.0 million), +30 deaths (now 20995) since 16 hours ago17:33
arunsCan anyone recommend some COVID podcasts to me?17:42
oerhekshttps://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2021/apr/05/i-almost-wet-myself-laughing-50-funny-podcasts-to-make-you-feel-much-better17:46
BrainstormNew from LitCovid: (news): New routines under new conditions: social and cultural implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. → https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/publication/3492473317:49
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Tissue Characterization in COVID-19 Survivors: Conditions :    COVID-19 Pneumonia;   COVID-19;   COVID-19 Respiratory Infection;   COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome;   COVID-19 Lower Respiratory Infection;   COVID-19 Acute Bronchitis;   [... want %more?] → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT0516474417:59
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): The PM said "people can go ahead with their Christmas plans" but urged caution and said people should take a test before meeting elderly relatives."We continue to monitor Omicron very closely and if the situation deteriorates we will be ready to take [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/147333903120333619818:08
BrainstormUpdates for Kenya: +2844 cases (now 267571), +1 deaths (now 5354), +10215 tests (now 2.9 million) since a day ago — Montenegro: +237 cases (now 161364), +2 deaths (now 2380), +2177 tests (now 942792) since a day ago18:10
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +24665 cases (now 11.5 million), +1574459 tests (now 390.5 million) since 23 hours ago — Morocco: +381 cases (now 953297), +4 deaths (now 14814), +16578 tests (now 10.7 million) since 23 hours ago18:35
BrainstormNew from WHO Euro: Omicron is gaining ground: Protect, prevent, prepare: We can see another storm coming – Omicron is becoming, or already has become, dominant in several countries, including in Denmark, Portugal and the [... want %more?] → https://www.euro.who.int/en/media-centre/sections/statements/2021/statement-update-on-covid-19-omicron-is-gaining-ground-protect,-prevent,-prepare18:36
ArsaneritNo Brainstorm, I don't want more Omicron.18:50
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Great thread by @BallouxFrancois on the reasons why Omicron can spread so quickly, yet likely have less ability to cause severe disease. twitter.com/ballouxfrancoi… → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/147335035109705728618:56
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +30783 cases (now 5.4 million), +153 deaths (now 135931), +851865 tests (now 131.6 million) since a day ago — Gibraltar: +59 cases (now 7902), +1526 tests (now 438239) since a day ago19:00
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: Most COVID-related EUAs backed by low-quality data, review finds: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Dec 21, 2021 The authors say use of poorer data is understandable early in a pandemic, but standards should be raised later. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/12/most-covid-related-euas-backed-low-quality-data-review-finds19:15
LjLso if most EUAs are backed by low-quality data, how about we raise the data of things like vitamin D over the minimum to recommend it19:22
LjLbecause seriously, this is starting to look like a joke... risky antivirals recommended and then later the recommendations withdrawns, while simple things that are at least very unlikely to harm are only mentioned among us weirdos somehow19:23
xxLjL: this issue has been known in the complete-foods community for a long time19:29
xxRDAs are crap for the most part, but they let 95% of the healthy population survive19:29
* darsie mixed another batch of vitamin D3 two days ago.19:29
BrainstormNew from BMJ: We need increased targeted measures now to slow the spread of omicron: “But omicron isn’t as severe. The number of people in hospital or dying is nowhere near as high as we’ve seen before. Why all the fuss?”These seem to be the current overriding sentiments in public... → http://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3133.short19:34
de-facto.title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVWg0DGzsa4 <-- MPK from new German government19:34
Brainstormde-facto: From www.youtube.com: Bund-Länder-Treffen: Ergebnisse der Beratungen zu den neuen Corona-Maßnahmen - YouTube19:34
de-facto.title https://www.welt.de/bin/Expertengremium2%20_bn-235759726.pdf <-- paper form expert gremium19:35
Brainstormde-facto: From www.welt.de: Stellungnahme Expertengremium.pdf19:35
de-facto.title https://www.bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/974430/1990312/5aded0cbf837124818e6af8feceb15c7/2021-12-21-mpk-beschluss-data.pdf?download=1 <-- result of the MPK19:35
Brainstormde-facto: From www.bundesregierung.de: Videoschaltkonferenz des Bundeskanzlers mit den Regierungschefinnen und Regierungschefs der Länder am 21. Dezember 202119:35
de-facto(all in German language)19:35
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +15656 cases (now 1.9 million), +26 deaths (now 30132) since 22 hours ago19:44
lastshellLjL I hear above 50 ng/ml vitamin D is the best against covid ?19:50
LjLthat seems overly specific given we technically "don't know" whether it's even useful against COVID19:50
LjLbut i'd recommend keeping vitamin D within the recommended levels, ideally on the high side (but no higher)19:50
lastshellok19:51
LjLif you think vitamin D helps, then make sure you have enough without doing anything irresponsible (some people ended up risking their life from taking huge doses)19:51
lastshellLast time I checked I had 5919:51
lastshellbut was 2 years ago :P19:51
LjL59 seems a pretty good value19:51
LjLmost people have much les19:51
LjLless19:51
lastshellok19:51
LjLit's technically even "too much"19:51
LjLthat's in ng/mL, right?19:52
lastshellcorrect19:52
lastshellsadly this was feb/mar of 202019:52
lastshellI forgot to do more analysis since them19:52
lastshellbut now I recall having one day fever in 202019:53
lastshellbefore they put everybody to wfh19:53
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: European Commission Expands Indication for Veklury (Remdesivir) for the Treatment of Adults Not on Supplemental Oxygen and Considered High Risk for COVID-19 Disease Progression → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rll0r1/european_commission_expands_indication_for/19:53
lastshellbut I always been tested negative for covid19:53
de-factobtw the new German government bases their decisions (as consensus of all ministers of federal states) now on the statement of an expert consortium, finally a reasonable approach19:53
LjLde-facto, i don't know, what did they base it on before? we have this "Technical-Scientific Committee" but i think it's pretty ridiculous. i suspect there is a LOT of infighting and their recommendations are always late.19:54
xxdamn I had 45ng/ml two years ago and haven't been outside since19:54
LjLxx, if it's still 45 that's pretty alright though19:55
xxyeah but I want to live forever19:55
LjL"The normal range of vitamin D is measured as nanograms per milliliter (ng/mL). Many experts recommend a level between 20 and 40 ng/mL. Others recommend a level between 30 and 50 ng/mL."19:55
LjLxx, well you probably can't accomplish that just with vitamin D :P19:55
xxdon't ask me about "normal range for cholesterol"19:55
lastshellxx exercise change my life19:55
xxnot eating cholesterol changed my life19:55
LjLeh cholesterol is complicated, the LDL vs HDL is more important than the "total" range19:55
lastshellyou need healthy fats ^19:58
lastshellUS president will address soon about omicron19:58
xxI don't think anyone ever called exogenous cholesterol a healthy fat19:58
LjLxx, i don't want to say you're right or wrong about cholesterol in general but i'm pretty sure there has often been a characterization of "good" cholesterol20:00
xxwell yeah, your brain and all cells are made of cholesterol, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea to eat it when your body (and all animal bodies) already makes as much as it needs20:01
xxit's a trivial chemical to manufacture20:01
xxanimals wouldn't exist without it20:01
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity): We need to scale up the production of this life-saving pill ASAP to combat COVID now. Also, we need to scale up production of mAbs that work against Omicron. We have the tools, but need enough to help everyone! twitter.com/erictopol/stat… → https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/147336663860289537420:03
LjLxx, but it's usually stated specifically as an indication to eat more "good" cholesterol and less "bad" cholesterol under the understanding that a high HDL/LDL ratio, or even just high HDL, is correlated with good health20:03
LjLi don't know if this is true as i'm aware that medical consensus on cholesterol has changed a few times. but i'm just saying that it's frequently stated20:03
xxbut there's no way of eating just the good cholesterol, or to even pick products that have a better cholesterol ratio20:03
lastshellalso ironic, exercise increase good cholesterol levels20:04
lastshellsame with testosterone20:04
LjLwhy not (at least the latter)? ingredients can give you some indication, if you know what to search for - yes, ideally HDL and LDL content would just be stated on the label...20:04
xxLjL: that ratio is very individual for every cow and cow product, I don't see how they'd make a consistent enough product to allow having the same label for all of it20:05
xxthere already are 50%-200% (yeah, percentages are weird) allowed variations in the labelling for some stuff20:06
xxso it's almost meaningless20:06
xxat least the vaccine dosages are 50µg exact20:07
xxwould be pretty horrifying if you wouldn't know if you're getting 25µg or 200µg because of manufacturing deviations20:07
LjLwell, food is not medication20:08
LjLxx, anyway can i ask how you felt before vs now, what changed?20:08
xxwith respect to?20:10
LjLxx, not eating cholesterol changing your life20:12
xxwell, to be fair, I haven't observed any real changes in my day-to-day life, but all the health markers for general health, longevity, alzheimers/parkinsons/MS/... likelihood, and other stuff improved20:13
xxso I guess it's like taking the vaccine even when you know covid wouldn't do anything to you, you just do it to check a box to prevent possible issues in the future20:14
xx(ok, replace 'know' with 'pretty sure')20:14
xxI even had that fancy scan of my arteries to detect plaque, and apparently I have less of it than currently newborn babies (which already is a huge problem that few talk about)20:15
xxboth the soft plaque and the calcified one20:15
xxand something else that I forget about20:16
xxI guess there very likely is a nice correlation between high cholesterol (or if you want, bad cholesterol ratios) and death or severe case of covid20:16
xx*correlation* obviously20:16
xxoverall, my summary is this: Cholesterol is not a problem on its own, but its level is an indicator of one's lifestyle and what one eats, and both of those factors have massive effects on everything about health20:19
LjLthat's fair20:21
xxhonestly one's lifestyle and nutrition is ignored too much, because we live in a culture where "victim shaming" is not permitted20:22
LjLi'd say it's hardly ignored when half of what's on TV is about healthy diets (although everyone has different opinions on what they are and most of the advice is bollocks)20:23
de-facto.title https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/ZS/Pandemieplan_Strategien.html <-- RKI published a strategy paper in parallel with the government, they recommend even stricter contact reductions20:34
Brainstormde-facto: From www.rki.de: RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - COVID-19-Strategiepapiere und Nationaler Pandemieplan20:34
de-facto.title https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Downloads/control-covid-2021-12-21.pdf?__blob=publicationFile20:34
Brainstormde-facto: From www.rki.de: ControlCOVID20:34
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Derek Lowe (@Dereklowe): Remember Alex Brenson’s idiotic Covid takes on Twitter? Here’s his equally idiotic attempt to sue them for his ban from the platform.Scroll through @AkivaMCohen’s timeline today for more. You’ll end up knowing a lot more law than Alex Berenson does! [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Dereklowe/status/147337674503004979220:41
LjLuff, can't anyone on twitter just shut up about how bad others are20:47
Arsaneritwhat else is twitter good for?20:56
Arsaneritor bad for20:56
LjLgetting my bot's earthquake warnings20:56
BrainstormNew from StatNews: STAT+: Oxfam wants the SEC to investigate Moderna for ‘misleading’ investors about its Covid patent dispute with NIH: Oxfam America has filed a complaint with securities regulators accusing Moderna of providing “misleading statements” and concealing [... want %more?] → https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2021/12/21/moderna-sec-covid19-vaccine-patent-nih-oxfam/21:00
BrainstormNew from Politico: As Omicron sweeps Europe, Germany plans for the worst: Emergency services ordered to ready plans to keep core opertions running even if staff are decimated by contagious new coronavirus strain. → https://www.politico.eu/article/omicron-coronavirus-europe-germany-restrictions-vaccine-booster/21:09
DreddI've ordered a PCR test for myself21:16
DreddI don't trust these LFTs...21:16
LjLi don't think i could *order* a PCR test. i'd have to go to a testing center...21:17
LjLwhich i'd much rather not21:17
DreddYeah me either, home ones still seem to be available21:22
DreddI can't find my oximeter either21:23
DreddThis seems way too much like how I think COVID would hit me, especially Omicron21:23
de-factoi am going to make a rapid antigen test every day while i visit my parents21:24
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Romanian crowd tries to storm parliament in protest at COVID-19 pass → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rln1r7/romanian_crowd_tries_to_storm_parliament_in/21:28
TuvixI'm sure everyone in that crowd will be getting rapid tests in the days following to assure they're not putting themselves or family/co-workers at risk…21:31
BrainstormUpdates for France: +72882 cases (now 8.8 million), +229 deaths (now 122931) since a day ago — Congo: +311 cases (now 19490), +2 deaths (now 367) since 5 days ago — S. Sudan: +217 cases (now 13831) since 18 hours ago — Liberia: +13 cases (now 5929) since a day ago21:36
Dredd<de-facto> "i am going to make a rapid..." <- I will before I go but I don't see the point in doing it whilst I'm there for my situation21:38
ArsaneritOne can do home PCR tests?21:46
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): We're now learning about the T-cell response to Omicron after an mRNA vaccine boosters. That's why these new findings in people with multiple sclerosis on immunosuppressive therapy are very encouragingmedrxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/SoezeVWgR3 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/147339418340671488121:48
de-factoDredd, i do that because i will have contacts (even when wearing mask), so in case i would replicate up an infectious amount of virions i want to be aware21:49
de-factoi know rapid tests are far for perfect (for a friend vaccinated 5 months ago it took 5 days until her infections broke through enough to show on rapid test), but they are better than nothing21:50
de-factoi would not rely on them, but as an additional measure it makes sense to me, but only if i do it every day (so no more than 24h prior to contacts21:50
de-factoPCR is more sensitive (with the old variants may be somewhat valid for 2 days, not sure if that still holds for Omicron, honestly i doubt it)21:56
de-factoi your place i would to a PCR and a rapid test each day with family21:58
de-factoinitial PCR once rapid test each day of ongoing contacts21:59
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): • But once people *are* in hospital being treated for Covid, whether Omicron or Delta this is serious, so those for-Covid hospital numbers will be as serious an indicator now as they have ever been → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/147339762198532096622:07
ArsaneritIs R<1 realistically possible with omicron?22:07
TuvixEventually it'll presumably run out of population yet uninfected. Presumably antibodies from those exposed will offer some at least short-term protection from re-infection again much like vaccines do in the first place.22:09
TuvixI think it's really a question of how much yet-uninfected people all the positive-cases come into contact with.22:09
oerheksArsanerit, not this year, i am afraid22:10
oerheksomicron can do R = 3.3 afaik22:11
xxall these R numbers have massive standard deviations22:12
xxwe don't have enough data on omicron yet22:12
TuvixThe "first" (officially reported anyway, very likely not the first ever) death in the US was a re-infection from an unvaccinated individual who had recovered previously from an earlier strain.22:14
TuvixBut plenty of vaccinated are tesing positive with Omicron too, and spreading it. They're just a lot less likely to land in the hospital or die. Oh, that's Omicron specific of course ^.22:15
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): We presented #omicron results early as it was the right action for public health!  Scientists reacted quickly. Can we suggest that #Omicron manuscripts cite the original discovery? This will encourage early data sharing! #Omicron paper now at medRxiv!  [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/147339931781373542822:16
aradeshdo we need to be worried about omicron? in the UK we have lots of cases now but our deaths aren't going up much. or is it still too early to say?22:19
dTaldepends what you mean22:19
dTalit's a serious threat to public health22:19
aradeshhospitalises a lot of people?22:20
TuvixRemember that both hospitalizations and deaths are a lagging indicator (it takes time to fall ill and die.) And "worried" could be "what if you get into a car wreck but there's no room at the ICU because all the beds are full of covid"22:20
aradeshi guess we don't really know yet how many people omicron might hospitalise22:20
dTalit's spreading so quickly that even if all it did was make you sick enough to stay home, it would be a crisis22:21
TuvixIn parts of the US here, the strain on hospitals is already at close to limits from just the delta wave ongoing here. The timing is not great; also remember even if Omicron is "less severe" if it also infects twice as many people, that is still a possible problem.22:21
dTalin the UK our health service is failing22:21
aradeshi wonder how much of vaccination hesitancy is deliberate avoidance, or just "can't be bothered"22:21
dTalin London, a double digit percentage of hospital staff are off sick with coviid22:22
aradeshi see22:22
aradeshhealth service is the main thing imo because if that gets overwhelmed, it effects everyone else22:22
aradeshwho is ill22:22
dTalyou can't get treated for anything22:22
TuvixA lot of it is grandstanding frankly. Requirements for jobs or other things people "want to do" have shown to be fairly effective at raising vaccine uptake, but these are also "unpopular" measures in those same vaccine-resistent communities.22:22
TuvixVery few are actually so against the vaccine that they'll risk or accept loss of a job to make their point.22:22
aradeshi reckon you're right22:23
aradeshmaybe 1-2%?22:23
dTalI've seen fake vaccine certificates passed around on WhatsApp22:23
aradeshi know people in the anti-vax communities they're so convinced there is going to be an uprising against oppressive regimes and that they're actually like 25% of the population22:23
aradesh(sadly a bbunch of my friends are like this)22:23
TuvixAnti-vax has always been a thing, but typically in much smaller circles. There's an unfortinuate overlay now with some political forces over the last 5 or so years that's at play too.22:24
dTalI think it's a lot more than 1%22:24
dTal30% feels closer22:24
dTalI'd wildly guess 10-15%22:24
aradeshdTal: as in people who would be willing to lose their job rather than get vaxxed?22:24
TuvixHere in the US some years back there was a very tight group of religious fanatics that didn't get their children vaccinated against measles; the vaccination rate in that area fell below 90%, and they had measles outbreaks.22:24
aradeshi think my anti-vax friends think i'm paid by big pharma to convince them the vaccine isn't so bad22:25
aradeshlol22:25
aradeshi wish22:25
dTalaradesh: ah, probably not by that metric. But they'd commit fraud to avoid the jab, in a heartbeat22:25
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Israel to offer 4th COVID vaccine dose → https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/rloajb/israel_to_offer_4th_covid_vaccine_dose/22:26
ArsaneritMy anti-vax colleague says he'll take a "normal" vaccine that doesn't contain "genetic material" (or something like that).  I wonder if he'll take Nuvaxovid / Covovax when offered.22:26
Tuvixhttps://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31790030/22:26
dTalomicron is more dangerous in several ways.22:26
Tuvix^ Same crap as we see here, just on a smaller scale and a different virus. Now give some monkey a microphone to seed doubt and add social media, and it can spread like wildfire.22:26
dTalOne is that its viral load curve is incredibly sharp. You can test negative on a lateral flow test, and be contagious a few hours later.22:27
TuvixAh, yea, this is the outbreak I was thinking of; it was the spreading into a highly undervaccinated religious-driven vaccine-resistant group.22:27
TuvixProblem is that "undervaccinated" in terms of COVID-19 is now "huge parts of many countries"22:27
dTalAt an individual level, it's much harder to behave safely with Omicron.22:27
aradeshArsanerit: the johnson & johnson is like that right?22:27
aradeshTuvix: the whole 'antivax' community i think comes from the USA, that's spread all around western countries22:28
aradeshall their ideas recycled22:28
Arsaneritaradesh: He doesn't like the adenovirus ones either, he wants a deactivated virus vaccine.22:28
TuvixFrom the Abstract & Findings, "Results highlight the confluence of these factors in current outbreaks, provide tools to predict outbreak risk, demonstrate the growing impact of misinformation and evaluate the impact of policy approaches for outbreak control and prevention."22:28
TuvixGuess we didn't learn that lesson very well then, did we? :\22:29
Arsaneritaradesh: That isn't true.  In the early 19th century there was a strong anti-vaccination resistance in the Bavarian mountains.  The King of Bavaria introduced the first mandatory vaccination with the smallpox vaccine in 1807.22:29
aradeshoh god my anti-vax friends will love that lol https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjtbep1ok22:29
aradeshthe israel to give 4th jab22:29
ArsaneritIn 1807 the USA barely existed.22:29
aradeshthey'll be like, "told you so! then it'll be the 5th! then the 6th!"22:30
TuvixUS had similar case law though; a famous 1905 case required an anti-vaxer get vaccinated to smallpox due to the community impact of having him unvaccinated.22:30
ArsaneritThe antivax community does not originate from the USA.22:30
ArsaneritThe antivax community is also nothing new.22:30
xxsmallpox was a fair bit worse though22:30
TuvixTrue, plus the political climate now wouldn't support such heavy tactics.22:31
xxwhereas a disease that just gives 99.7% of the people a minor case of sniffles (I pulled that number out of my ass) is more questionable22:31
aradeshArsanerit: hmm.. maybe not originate. but the community around it seems to be huge and thriving there, and their materials recycled all around22:31
TuvixIt's a problem when it overwhelms public health systems. At that point you either need to revamp public health to support that, or find ways to reduce the impact. Or I suppose the 3rd option is degrade health care for everyone.22:32
xxyou bet people would be lining up for the vaccine, if the disease was some sort of airborne ebola22:32
aradeshTuvix: yup. i think in some third world countries, they've basically not noticed coronavirus. combination of the fact that there aren't many old people, or hospitals, to get impacted22:32
dTaleven if we accept your asspull figure, a 1 in 300 death rate is pretty severe if everyone gets it22:32
TuvixI mused a day or so ago that vaccination would be much more wildly popular if COVID-19 was no more deadly, but gave you those skin boils that smallpox did; vanity would have people rushing out to keep their skin clear.22:32
aradeshTuvix: basically, still no healthcare in those places either way22:33
dTalthat's like the entire country being in a sschool shooting22:33
TuvixSince the pandemic begain, death rate in the US is at roughly 244/100k. Put another way, that's roughly 1 in 410 people.22:33
TuvixOf course, that's also impacting the elderly, those with comorbidities, and (now) the unvaccinated in far higher numbers.22:33
xxsince the pandemic began, the US population has increased by what number?22:34
aradeshthe main problem has always been the spikes and effect on healht services i think22:34
dTaldoes obesity count as a comorbidity?22:34
xxdTal: it should if it does not22:34
aradeshthe simplest argument against people who think it's all "pointless" is... if a country could ignore it, they would. it'd be way cheaper for them to.22:34
dTalwell a third of the US population is obese22:34
TuvixThe mortality data from JHU has been interesting to compare countries: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality22:34
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Mo Happy (@TheDarkNight090): @fact_covid Fascinating read.  gov.uk/government/pub… → https://twitter.com/TheDarkNight090/status/147340093327930983422:35
ArsaneritChristian antivaxxers in The Netherlands may cite the bible: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_9:12  "It is not the healthy who need a doctor, but the sick"22:36
Arsaneritinterestigly the enwiki article on Matthew 9:12 makes no note of antivaxxers22:36
ArsaneritBut the christian antivaxxers use the argument that some non-christian antivaxxers use, "I'm not sick, I don't need medicine, a vaccine is a medicine, therefore I don't need a vaccine."22:37
TuvixI've also had such a hard time mentally coming to terms with just country-level figures. US pandemic totals (reported, not even considering "excess deaths") of 805k is hard to process, but "269 Twin Towers worth of death seen in Sept-11, 2001" is an interesting point of comparison. Or taking the 7-day average reported pandemic death rate (1,206 in the US as of yesterday) and re-defining that as a 9/1122:38
Arsaneritaradesh: It also shows that not even the most ardently neoliberal countries think only in terms of money.  The cheapest would probably be to not provide any medical assistance to anyone infected with coronavirus.22:38
Tuvixsize (and mostly preventable!) death rate of a Twin Tower collapse every 60 hours.22:38
BrainstormUpdates for Mozambique: +2068 cases (now 162525), +5 deaths (now 1957), +6001 tests (now 1.0 million) since a day ago — Algeria: +310 cases (now 215145), +8 deaths (now 6198) since 23 hours ago — Kuwait: +92 cases (now 414270), +19679 tests (now 5.8 million) since 23 hours ago22:38
ArsaneritI don't see the relevance of the Twin Towers.22:38
TuvixBecause it's a way to compare how fast people are dying. The country came together for that event; but we're devided and bitterly fight over trivial ways to stop the numbers of dead at this rate.22:39
TuvixAlso because you couldn't really do much about planes crashing into towers (it was an external event, notwithstanding all the possible warning signs that were missed.) The unvaccinated dying are entierly preventable.22:40
TuvixThat was a tragety. But these deaths? These are okay? Soemthing we just ignore when, in 60 hours, that same level of death toll occurs again? This seems very relevant to me.22:40
aradeshArsanerit: you'd have to ban anyone with coronavirus going to hospital, yeah22:42
TuvixLots of doctors can't (ethically) do that. Triage doesn't really work that way.22:43
dTalwell you see Tuvix the twin towers were a symbol of US financial hegemony22:43
ArsaneritIt's possible in theory, but not in practice.22:44
TuvixInstead you just strain the system and it falls apart for everyone. I listen to medical dispatch here, and it's not uncommon either of the 2 main trauma hospitals go on "trauma divert", meaning they can no longer deal with new trauma intake. If your car crashed down the block from them? You'll be driven to the next hospital.22:44
ArsaneritHow many people die every day in the USA, without COVID-19?22:44
TuvixYes, yes, we have lots of other causes of death too. Are you aware of any of them that a vaccination could fix? Can I get vaccinated against gun violence? Car crashes?22:44
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: COVID-19 Data Briefing (21 December 2021) → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rlomnq/covid19_data_briefing_21_december_2021/22:45
TuvixMy point is to compare scale, not say these are equal events.22:45
ArsaneritTuvix: Not vaccinated as such, but certainly there are measures possible to protect against both gun violence and car crashes.22:45
TuvixI also don't have a good sense of how "bad" national car deaths are. I'm sure lots of deaths happen there, but it's not a useful benchmark.22:45
ArsaneritI seem to recall there are still people in the USA who think mandatory seat belts are a bad thing.22:45
ArsaneritAre mandatory seat belts comparable to mandatory vaccinations?22:46
TuvixYup, and it was faught much like vaccines are now, with some drivers claiming they'd drive around states with belt-laws.22:46
TuvixIt's not a bad comparison, at least in terms of social views.22:46
TuvixKeep in mind we don't have anything approaching state-level vaccine requirements. Some federal jobs do, but that's still a bit different than a requirement that applies to a significant portion of the public.22:47
dTalI'm just saying that the emotional impact is dependent on symbolic factors that can't be ignored. It's like saying "400 thousand Kennedy assassinations"22:47
ArsaneritBy now the overloaded hospitals one is the only strong reason for mandatory vaccinations left, considering that current vaccines couldn't bring R<1 with Delta and certainly can't with Omicron.22:47
TuvixWell, no, I take this back, we _do_ have many national vaccine mandates, but they apply to elementary school children.22:47
ArsaneritYes?  Does the USA have mandatory vaccinations for school kids?  Does any place in the USA have mandatory schooling (i.e. prohibits home education)?22:47
Tuvixie: the anti-vaxers on principle are decades late to that argument if all vaccines are bad. It's interesting to watch them split the hair on why those are good but these are not.22:47
TuvixThat's a straw man's argument and you know it. The argument is that no jobs can require it. Except people could just become self-employed to "get around" that, so why are job requirements being fought in court?22:48
Tuvixself-employed:empoyer-mandate::home-schooled:school-vaccinations22:49
ArsaneritTuvix: What is a strawman argument and how?22:49
ArsaneritAnd is it a strawman argument for or against?22:49
ArsaneritI'm confused.22:49
TuvixGrok the anology above? If "I feel strong enough that I refuse to get my child vaccinated and will homeschool them to avoid school requirements for vaccination" is a just and correct answer, than "I can give up my employment and make a living on my own without interacting with businesses that require vacciations for their workers" should be equally valid.22:51
ArsaneritNo, it's not.22:51
ArsaneritWell, if.22:51
TuvixThe practical impact of school-vaccinations is that enough children (who later grow up to be vaccine-protected adults) are protected to reach "herd immunity"22:51
TuvixThat NIH study I posted earlier shows how we have outbreaks of nasty diseases when that fails to hold true.22:51
TuvixAnd that was just in a single orthodox religious community.22:52
ArsaneritIt's not equally valid though.22:52
ArsaneritIn one case, you deny essential medical treatment for another person.  In the other case, you deny medical treatment for yourself.22:52
ArsaneritChild abuse is not analogies to self abuse.22:53
ArsaneritIn Germany, children, even teenagers, cannot get vaccinated without parental consent :-(22:53
ArsaneritThat's really bad.22:53
TuvixThat's right up until the age of consent then? (is that 16, 18 there?)22:53
ArsaneritFrom what I've understood, 14-18 year olds can refuse a treatment the parents want, but not get a treatment the parents refuse to consent.22:54
TuvixAh, interesting split.22:54
Arsaneriti.e. teenager and parent must agree22:54
ArsaneritThere was a recent court case about what if the parents disagree, and the court ruled that if one parent approves the child can get vaccinated22:55
ArsaneritI mean, if the parentns disagree with each other22:55
TuvixI just wish we'd see more global requirements for covid vacciations. If you want to refuse, fine, but then you shouldn't be able to negatively impact others. I've got close family that recently recovered from cancer (no longer in treatment, but still at slightly higher risk as a result) and another family friend currently in chemo. A positive case that results in infection could literally kill them.22:56
TuvixSure, breakthrough cases are a thing, and masks while outbreaks are common, *if* worn by the public, can reduce that. But countries with 90%+ vacciation rates have far less impact, at least with delta, and it seems so far with Omicron too.22:57
TuvixI'm actually curious to see if Japan sees a surge with Omicron. They've got a far more accepting public on masks, but have borders locked down right now to try and delay the omicron wave.23:00
BrainstormNew from Novavax: (news): Novavax Announces Initiation of PREVENT-19 COVID-19 Vaccine Phase 3 Trial Booster Study → https://ir.novavax.com/2021-12-21-Novavax-Announces-Initiation-of-PREVENT-19-COVID-19-Vaccine-Phase-3-Trial-Booster-Study23:03
ArsaneritIf you refuse you are already negatively impacting others by potentially filling up intensive care units in hospitals.23:08
ArsaneritIs Japan more accepting on masks?23:08
ArsaneritI see antivaxers, but I haven't seen any significant anti-mask movement here in Germany.23:09
ArsaneritMasks have become standard.23:09
BrainstormUpdates for Ethiopia: +2323 cases (now 379379), +5 deaths (now 6877), +10016 tests (now 4.0 million) since a day ago — Spain: +49823 cases (now 5.6 million), +94 deaths (now 88887), +89963 vaccines (now 39.1 million) since a day ago — Malawi: +943 cases (now 66166), +19420 vaccines (now 1.4 million), +2439 tests (now 465609) since a day ago [... want %more?]23:09
TuvixJapan? Yea: https://www.embopress.org/doi/epdf/10.15252/emmm.20201248123:10
TuvixWell, masks are not "standard" everywhere. I got my flu shot this past week, and at least 2/3 of the customers were unmasked. I had to drive to a slightly more rural county just north of me, but odds are good a significant number of those were also unvaccinated.23:11
Arsanerit28 April 2020 is a long time ago in pandemic terms23:11
ArsaneritIn April 2020 masks were not yet commonplace and normal in Germany, but they are now.23:11
TuvixYea, but the effect is much the same during the delta surge. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/12/20/1065159384/the-riddle-of-japans-dramatic-drop-in-covid-numbers23:11
TuvixOne theory proposed is that masks are a big factor, but I think when omicron hits Japan, that theory may be put to a bit of the test.23:12
ArsaneritWhere in the world are you?  I haven't seen any unmasked people in supermarkets for a long time, and only very few on public transportation.23:12
TuvixUS, western great lakes.23:12
ArsaneritMaybe Germany has embranced masks mor ethan the USA has?23:12
ArsaneritI think I read this Japan article you linked last year.23:13
TuvixThe whole region here, MN, WI, MI has seen a pretty big surge, and we've just entered winter as well, with the tail of delta still very real here. Local ICUs in the entire region where I am have been reporting operating at 100% capacity (across almost 30 hospitals) for going into the 4th week now.23:13
ArsaneritIt could use an update.23:13
ArsaneritI don't know if mandatory vaccinations are going to make divisions better or worse.23:14
ArsaneritApparently, in the past, mandatory vaccinations have at times put an end to divisions rather than making them worse.23:14
TuvixDivisions are already widespread, but I dunno what else is going to work for the current vaccine holdouts.23:14
TuvixMaybe more death in their family? Or will just severe hospitalizations be enough?23:14
ArsaneritFrom what I've read, some people keep denying COVID-19 as a hoax even as they are dying in hospital.23:15
TuvixYup, some interviewed don't even believe the former US president got vaccinated (he did, and boosted.)23:15
ArsaneritBut others were not strongly antivax as such, just negligent, "didn't get around to do it".23:15
TuvixThat's a somewhat rare view, but with social media you can get all the weirdos together to share their insane thoughts ;)23:16
ArsaneritAt least in Germany the government could make it a lot easier to get vaccinated.23:16
TuvixYea, the "didn't get around to it" or "didn't think it was so bad" crowd is probably more than the hardcore antivax nuts.23:16
ArsaneritI keep getting vaccination offers from my employer, but they're never in the workplace, always in centres that are at the other end of town or worse.23:16
TuvixIt's not uncommon to hear those in the hospital saying that. Some end up getting vaccinated, others don't.23:16
TuvixI got lucky here and there was a massive combination effort in my local city that was a combination of local health, state health, and the National Guard (complete with guard members in uniforms helping direct the public) to get my #1/#2 doses.23:17
ArsaneritThere should be vaccination vans quasi-permanently installed at the parking lots of shopping centres, in town squares, in nightlife districts, in neighbourhoods where many people live close together...23:17
TuvixIt was really well run too; they took over a then-unused college sports arena indoors and set up with queuing, registration & check-in tables, nurses to give the shots, and recovery chairs.23:18
TuvixThen you'd schedule your 2nd dose right on your way out the door.23:18
ArsaneritIn the German city-state of Bremen the vaccination rate is well over 80%, compared to other states where it's in places worse than 60%.  Thereby Bremen is a poor city with many poorly educated people who one might expect to be susceptible to misinformation on social media.23:18
ArsaneritA better organised vaccination campaign could still reach the negligent or misinformed people.  Not the conspiracy theorists, not the people who are afraid of "RNA" despite moderately good information, but others yes.23:19
TuvixIs there an idea what drove that lower-educated area to such reasonable vaccination rates? 80% of the general population sounds great, better than almost any US state is doing.23:19
TuvixA map of the US has very few states up past the 70%+ mark currently: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/us-states, all in the northeast region (though a couple elsewhere are approaching that)23:21
TuvixLooks like a few below 50% still.23:22
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: Biden: COVID-19 testing to increase as Omicron spreads: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Dec 21, 2021 Biden has instructed the government to distribute 500 million free at-home tests. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/12/biden-covid-19-testing-increase-omicron-spreads23:23
ArsaneritTuvix: Yes, it's the organisation by the city.23:24
TuvixWell whatever they wre doing, sounds like the messaging was effective.23:24
ArsaneritTuvix: They were consistently out there in the neighbourhoods, they looked at the data and saw where they weren't reaching out well enough, went there on purpose.  Reached out to local community leaders such as imams, who have the trust of people who may be harder to reach and may have reasons to distrust the government.23:25
TuvixI just looked at the national numbers; 70% in Germany, 62% in the US. Meanwhile, our neighbors to the north in Canada has 78% nation-wide.23:25
ArsaneritThere are big regional variations behind the German national numbers.23:26
TuvixNice, sounds like they really tried to look at where the gaps were in the messaging and go back to ensure the locals really got the information.23:26
Arsanerit60% or worse in mountain areas.  Just today I was reading about an essay of someone wondering why people in mountain areas are so reluctant to get vaccinated — the essay was written 200 years ago.23:26
TuvixYea, the variation sounds a lot like what we have here; you're just overall doing a slightly better job.23:26
TuvixOh wow, yea, sad when those century-old literature items look like they could be posted today…23:27
TuvixHere in the US, it's become more of a political thing than a regional thing. The voting districts that are more conservative by a wide enough margin have notably higher rates of hospitalization & death than the margins the other way.23:29
ArsaneritThe German speaking countries are doing poorer than southern, western, or northern Europe though.  Germany has a relatively strong anthroposophy movement.  Enlightenment came late to Germany, it was distrusted by the noble elites who saw it a threat coming out of the French evolution.  In the German speaking countries Romanticism developed as a response.  You might have heard of the story of Heidi &23:29
ArsaneritPeter.  There's a sick kid in there, partly paralysed I think, the urban doctors were unable to cure him but as he got to the clean mountain air he became cured.23:29
ArsaneritIt seems there is still an attitude, we live in the mountains and nobody outside of our valley tells us what to do, or we live in the mountains, we are in harmony with nature, the nature is healthy to us and we don't need a vaccine as the mountains give us a strong immune system.  That sort of reasoning.23:30
ArsaneritIt already helps if someone repeats the message in their own dialect rather than in standard high German.23:30
TuvixIs the French connection strong? I don't know a lot about German/French history, but I know there's something of a strong anti-vax movement in France right now too.23:30
ArsaneritI don't think France has nearly as strong an anti-vax movement as Germany, but France has in recent decades seen some pharmaceutical scandals that have generally eroded trust in mainstream medicine.23:31
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Omicron by the numbers: Where things stand now: What does the Covid-19 pandemic look like right now? Here is an illustrated snapshot. → https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/21/omicron-by-the-numbers-where-things-stand-now/23:32
ArsaneritThere have been some corruption scandals involving mecidine where side-effects were deliberately under-reported, I think.  I don't remember the details.23:33
TuvixAh, yea, I can see where if something like that that was handled badly, even if not *hugely* significant, would anger masses. And rightfully so, but it sounds like the reaction may have been too far the other direction.23:33
ArsaneritMy french wife complains that doctors in France are far too quickly proscribing far too much medicine, and don't pay enough attention to prevention and non-medicinal behavioural change, i.e. a healthy lifestyle.23:33
dTalArsanerit: that's an interesting anthropological slice of life, thanks23:33
dTal(by the way you probably mean "prescribing". "Proscribing" means the opposite - forbidding.)23:34
ArsaneritdTal: what a silly language English is.  Yes, I do.23:34
BrainstormUpdates for Burkina Faso: +368 cases (now 17040), +21 deaths (now 317), +4943 tests (now 239193) since 6 days ago — Rwanda: +343 cases (now 102232) since 21 hours ago — India: +5914 cases (now 34.8 million), +54 deaths (now 478061) since 17 hours ago — Curacao: +94 cases (now 17901), +2258 tests (now 367951) since a day ago23:34
dTalEnglish is indeed a silly, silly language.23:35
TuvixA common thing I hear talked about here when looking at parents who are concerned about vaccinating their children is the myocarditis risk. The irony is that the risk of heart inflamation from catching COVID is far worse (and in both cases quite a low risk)23:35
dTalSee also: flammable, inflammable23:35
TuvixSomething like 2.7 per 100k for the vaccines in children, but about 13 per 100k from COVID.23:35
TuvixA lot of the "fear" is just non-medical TV/radio personalities and online influencers stiring the pot. Folks need to discuss medical risks with an actual doctor!23:36
ArsaneritdTal: Well, German has some auto-antonyms too.  Die Untiefe means either something shallow or something very very deep.23:37
ArsaneritDusting the house!23:37
ArsaneritdTal: I don't remember if you read German, but the analysis I summarised is what I learned from this article, that explores these ideas in more depth: https://taz.de/Urspruenge-der-Impfskepsis/!5818070/23:39
dTalRegrettably I do not23:40
Arsaneritdeepl translate is pretty good between English and German23:40
ArsaneritI'm an immigrant in Germany myself and the angle of the historical German-French relations was new to me.23:41
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Good T cell responses against Omicron after booster; CD8 T cells work well even in the absence of B cells (anti-CD20).medrxiv.org/content/10.110… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/147342102852113204023:42
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Cuba has vaccinated most against Covid-19, more than most large, rich countries → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rlpzww/cuba_has_vaccinated_most_against_covid19_more/23:51
BrainstormUpdates for Argentina: +9336 cases (now 5.4 million), +23 deaths (now 116953), +71044 tests (now 27.2 million) since a day ago — Switzerland: +30 deaths (now 12047) since 22 hours ago23:59

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