| Tuvix | Far better than the almost zero Spanish I know, and perhaps my ability to poorly say in French, "I'm sorry, I don't speak French. Do you speak English?" | 00:01 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): In a big day of Covid news, you might have missed this non-Covid #AI advance (the potential for accurate prediction of breast cancer in healthy people from images)washingtonpost.com/technology/202… by @zeitchikWaPo on the work of @BarzilayRegina @YalaTweets [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1473788608473550848 | 00:01 |
| de-facto | noone was upset here, i have only seen friendly comments, they just put an attractive female bouncer in front of every shops door that controls the certs via smartphone | 00:02 |
| Tuvix | Oh, I also know "4 cheese pizza" in French. I have no idea what was on the 2nd pizza from a small shop I ordered though. I picked a pizza with lots of words, and it was wonderful. | 00:05 |
| Arsanerit | Tuvix: in germany there was someone who shot and killed a clerk when they reminded them of putting their mask on | 00:06 |
| Tuvix | :( | 00:07 |
| Arsanerit | on that happy note, goodnight | 00:07 |
| Arsanerit | </sarcasm> | 00:07 |
| Tuvix | Yea, at least most people seem to be willing to comply, at least in much of the EU. Night! | 00:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Argentina: +11121 cases (now 5.4 million), +11 deaths (now 116964), +67795 tests (now 27.2 million) since a day ago | 00:07 |
| minthos | guns in the future should have a conscience and be programmed to kill their user if someone tries to use them for evil | 00:10 |
| dTal | like The Moment in Doctor Who | 00:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): Our initial drug, ML1000, described in 2020 September, preceded Pfizer's PF-07321332 (Paxlovid) announced in 2021 April and approved today. Other groups have also made drugs with boceprevir parts, but our drug is the closest in structure to PF-07321332 [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1473795478684766208 | 00:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Reunion: +4558 cases (now 71795), +8 deaths (now 401) since 7 days ago — Angola: +633 cases (now 67199), +3 deaths (now 1741) since 22 hours ago — Ivory Coast: +247 cases (now 62583) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +13660 cases (now 3.1 million), +49 deaths (now 21044) since 23 hours ago | 00:32 |
| Dredd | Is it me or does Michael Lin just repeatedly keep posting the same tweet about Pfizer stealing his work? | 00:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): Of course in the meantime everybody got scared by headlines about how an ICL study found Omicron was just as severe [sic] pic.twitter.com/ksKvrfL72G → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1473799632949944320 | 00:39 |
| Tuvix | That seems to be a lot of it recently anyway. | 00:41 |
| LjL | i've definitely noticed that sort of thing before | 00:43 |
| LjL | the all-time-popular poll is over, but i'm still taking suggestions to add or remove people from the twitter rooster and relegate them to ##covid-ticker if they just rant too much | 00:44 |
| * LjL relegates himself to ##covid-ticker | 00:44 | |
| xx | why is there ##covid-19 and ##coronavirus anyway? | 00:49 |
| Dredd | LjL @LjL:libera.chat: yeah he always mentions it from time to time but he seems to have gone a bit crazy with it now | 00:50 |
| Dredd | I'm sure he'll calm down again soon enough | 00:50 |
| Tuvix | Could just be a phase. Yea. | 00:50 |
| Dredd | de-facto @de-facto:libera.chat: so all the shops checked your papers, absolutely strictly, with no exception? 😉😛 | 00:51 |
| de-facto | exactly that | 00:52 |
| de-facto | i was pleased with their stringency | 00:52 |
| Tuvix | I'd be more willing to go places that did even a good portion of that to all incoming customers. | 00:53 |
| de-facto | (although ... i am not a big fan of vaccine passports, as they prevent testing) | 00:53 |
| LjL | Greece is also checking green passes for shops, i hear | 00:53 |
| Tuvix | As it stands I try to avoid going basically anywhere now that isn't outdoors, and now that there's persistent snow, that limits recreational outdoor plans a lot. | 00:53 |
| LjL | but you have all sorts of G's including testing ones | 00:53 |
| LjL | i don't know if there's any snow here because there's been too much fog to see anything :P | 00:54 |
| Tuvix | I did a fair bit of outdoor running in a state park with some nice hiking trails in an easy drive, but that's not going to be an option until mid spring now. | 00:55 |
| LjL | <xx> why is there ##covid-19 and ##coronavirus anyway? ← the short story is i made the former while someone else was making the latter, early in 2020, and we each didn't know about the other channel. it's peaceful coexistence. this channel is more bot-y. | 00:55 |
| LjL | also this one is linked to Matrix, some people don't love that, so there's some choice | 00:55 |
| LjL | i haven't been outdoors in too long | 00:56 |
| LjL | delicate balance to be struck | 00:56 |
| LjL | but right now it's too much in the direction of being tucked inside nervously | 00:56 |
| de-facto | btw i did a rapid antigen test in advance and always was wearing my FFP3, so from me noone got COVID, and hopefully i did not catch it either during shopping, it was really crowded | 00:57 |
| Tuvix | I should get out more, though doing some last-minute prep to feel ready to abandon my cats for a couple days to visit a very small family gathering of equally-indoor-folks for a gift exchange & to meet my now month-old niece. | 00:57 |
| LjL | Dredd, did you get the PCR response? or when do you get it? | 00:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israeli drug prevents 100% of COVID patients from deteriorating in trial → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rmhzlg/israeli_drug_prevents_100_of_covid_patients_from/ | 00:58 |
| LjL | wow? | 00:58 |
| Tuvix | Hopefully Pfizer #3 tomorrow doesn't keep me from too much of last minute pet-pampering! :P | 00:58 |
| de-facto | and Dredd how are you feeling? | 00:58 |
| LjL | it's worldnews though so let's see | 00:58 |
| LjL | hmm | 00:58 |
| LjL | "All 18 COVID-19 patients hospitalized with moderate or severe symptoms who were administered the drug Amor-18 developed by Israeli biotech company Amorphical in a phase II clinical trial recovered and were discharged in a few days, the company announced Wednesday. Of the 19 individuals who were given a placebo, six had to be transferred to intensive care, and two died." | 00:58 |
| LjL | reddit commenter comments "that's some solid evidence" | 00:58 |
| LjL | maybe it is, but when i read "all 18" i was immediately like :| | 00:59 |
| Tuvix | I mean, it's neat, but "18" is a low figure. | 00:59 |
| de-facto | in medicine there is no 100%, never. | 00:59 |
| de-facto | if someone claims 100% it means their testing cohort is not large enough | 00:59 |
| LjL | this article reads dubious to me | 01:00 |
| LjL | nothing's magical | 01:00 |
| LjL | “The drug we have developed is anti-inflammatory, safe and effective and it is easy to use,” he also said, adding that Amor-18 will work against the entire SARS virus family, including all COVID variants. | 01:00 |
| de-facto | "Amor-18, which uses Amorphous Calcium Carbonate (ACC) as the main ingredient, was administered orally or by inhalation. As explained by the company, ACC has the ability to modulate acidic pH changes around each cell. These changes affect the capability of the coronavirus to penetrate the cells and replicate. This allows the drug to prevent the virus from spreading and therefore the patients from deteriorating." | 01:00 |
| de-facto | hmmm | 01:00 |
| LjL | they've invented paracetamol except it cures SARS? | 01:00 |
| xx | it wasn't a blind trial, was it? They likely picked the participants. | 01:00 |
| de-facto | "All 18 COVID-19 patients hospitalized with moderate or severe symptoms who were administered the drug Amor-18 developed by Israeli biotech company Amorphical in a phase II clinical trial recovered and were discharged in a few days, the company announced Wednesday. Of the 19 individuals who were given a placebo, six had to be transferred to intensive care, and two died." | 01:01 |
| de-facto | yeah as i suspected, not nearly enough participants | 01:01 |
| xx | yeah, placebo-controlled, but not double-or-whatever-blind | 01:01 |
| LjL | xx, i don't know, that was one of my concerns too, but i'm only reading the newspaper article so they don't get into such thrifty details :P | 01:01 |
| de-facto | but yeah, why not try with a larger cohort? | 01:02 |
| LjL | they try to make it more compelling by saying they also gave it to two "desperate cases" and they recovered | 01:02 |
| LjL | i don't actually want to sound so skeptical but i'm reacting to the article sounding too eh | 01:02 |
| LjL | one test i do lately... get these urls and put them into twitter search | 01:03 |
| Tuvix | Could be bad article writing too, but that's why it's so important to link to actual studies for those that want or can process more science-heavy presentation. | 01:03 |
| LjL | all i get now if i put https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/article-689543 there is random people saying random things like "if we only didn't put all our eggs in one basket!" or "why aren't we hearing about this more?" | 01:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nigeria: +4035 cases (now 231413), +2 deaths (now 2991) since 15 hours ago — Ghana: +946 cases (now 133555), +4 deaths (now 1265) since 22 hours ago — Guinea: +74 cases (now 30888), +1 deaths (now 389) since 7 days ago — Switzerland: +15 deaths (now 12072) since 10 hours ago | 01:03 |
| LjL | so far, no actual scientists mentioning this. although maybe they're mentioning the study, just not the article | 01:03 |
| xx | "It's just an expensive copy of ivermectin" | 01:03 |
| xx | - someone, somewhere | 01:04 |
| LjL | (one day in my world dictatorship, news articles about studies will HAVE to come with a link to the study) | 01:04 |
| xx | why bother with news articles in a dictatorship? Just have free access to studies instead. | 01:05 |
| Tuvix | Raw science is neither easy for the public to understand (even summaries & abstracts) and is often less-ueful than well-curated presentation. | 01:06 |
| LjL | couldn't keep myself from replying to this one https://twitter.com/TheDysident/status/1473766015272165382 | 01:06 |
| xx | you're either doing it right, and all news is propaganda, or you're doing it wrong, and everyone still thinks that all news is propaganda -> get rid of news | 01:06 |
| Tuvix | The real trick is finding a news outlet that generally preserves the data and doesn't have too much of a pervasive slant. | 01:06 |
| LjL | xx, well my dictatorship is a very hypothetical one so i don't have to take much care of the details | 01:06 |
| Tuvix | I try to get a variety of sources from multiple countries of origin in my podcasts. Sometimes the best reflection on domestic (to me) issues are ones from another country. | 01:07 |
| de-facto | LjL, there are some trials registered though, but not sure if they ever published a paper yet | 01:07 |
| LjL | Tuvix, well there's Derek Lowe, statnews (not so good sometimes), other things that... are hopefully in the bot's feed. but i'm pretty sure in this case i would be better informed by even just the abstract than by this article | 01:07 |
| LjL | de-facto, this is another thing i don't really like though. go to newspapers first, publish later? | 01:07 |
| LjL | not a fan | 01:07 |
| LjL | although the big names do it too: press release with handpicked data from study, and study only much later | 01:08 |
| xx | press release -> gets funding for a study -> why do the study at all, we're rich baby! | 01:09 |
| xx | a summary of most of extraordinary reports of a cancer cure for the last 60 years | 01:09 |
| LjL | well, i was thinking about BNT/Pfizer and Moderna and friends announcements, so not quite like that | 01:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Chemjobber (@Chemjobber): If anyone can do it, it's Pfizer and its suppliers - but this is a non-trivial task, especially with the ramp-up time being so small. Best wishes to the paxlovid team - we are all cheering for you. → https://twitter.com/Chemjobber/status/1473807808256643072 | 01:16 |
| minthos | in my world dictatorship research articles are published in full text for free with no paywall or other barrier to access, or not published at all | 01:19 |
| LjL | de-facto, btw am i blind/dumb or... is it easy to find a paper (if published) starting from a clinicaltrials.gov page? | 01:19 |
| de-facto | you could search for the trial number | 01:20 |
| LjL | hmm i'm not positive i usually see that mentioned on the papers, but good idea to try | 01:21 |
| LjL | also does anyone remember what was the recent study showing neutralization against Delta (of BNT probably) waned quicker than neutralization of previous variants? | 01:22 |
| LjL | i've not been able to find it again | 01:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): I had hoped to have a nice quiet holiday but events conspire against it. Trying to figure out Omicron severity (relevant to how to advise on boosters), discussing protease inhibitors, and trying to communicate the dangers of molnupiravir approval, all [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1473810876410970112 | 01:26 |
| oerheks | the lancet? | 01:27 |
| oerheks | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(21)00185-1/fulltext | 01:27 |
| Dredd | <LjL> "Peter, did you get the PCR..." <- I dunno, think it won't be delivered to tomorrow | 01:28 |
| LjL | no, i think it was something more recent, and i don't remember it being about Asians in particular... but this might be interesting too | 01:29 |
| Dredd | <de-facto> "and Peter how are you feeling?" <- Still crap, spending a lot of time in bed resting | 01:29 |
| LjL | it was specifically about the *loss* of efficacy between a recent shot and a shot after a few months - which is something we've seen studied a few times by now - but with each variant compared | 01:30 |
| LjL | Dredd, probably the best you can do for now... i presume you could have access to a pulse oximeter if things started feeling weird | 01:31 |
| de-facto | I hope you feel better soon | 01:31 |
| Dredd | Thanks, I've lost the oximeter it seems | 01:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Australia: +7905 cases (now 272608), +11 deaths (now 2173) since 22 hours ago — Uruguay: +445 cases (now 405681), +2 deaths (now 6159), +11396 tests (now 4.3 million) since a day ago | 01:41 |
| LjL | Dredd, that's annoying, not easy to order a new one this time of the year. but it's a just-in-case thing. | 01:42 |
| LjL | de-facto, Dredd, i just had a probably inaccurate flashback... was it still Michael Lin harshly criticizing Merck's pill, or someone else? just gratuitously assuming people are malicious here, but: if they criticize Merck's pill for being mutagenic, and downplay Pfizer's pill because "it's just like ours and we did it earlier", well that sounds like a bit of an agenda to promote your own maybe | 01:47 |
| LjL | (although i do know that the concerns about Merck's pill mutagenic...ity? are quite widely shared) | 01:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): Would you prefer (1) we get back to normal activities sometime, or (2) we make new vaccine-evading coronaviruses continuously, suffer widespread breakthrough waves, and wear masks forever? If you chose #1, then know this: Merck's molnupiravir should [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1473818094573441030 | 01:54 |
| LjL | doh, how apropos | 01:55 |
| LjL | he may well be right but the conflict of interest is... kinda... | 01:56 |
| xx | I'd love the masks forever, especially inside buildings and public transport | 01:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Gabon: +209 cases (now 38039), +6085 tests (now 1.5 million) since a day ago — Grenada: +12 cases (now 5933), +359 tests (now 90804) since 23 hours ago | 02:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): And then from there, any mutations that benefit the virus, e.g. by evading antibodies from vaccines or prior infection or by making it more contagious, will expand, no matter how rare they are. That's natural selection. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1473823072608129026 | 02:13 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Guadeloupe: +471 cases (now 56035), +56309 tests (now 607573) since 19 hours ago — Rwanda: +465 cases (now 102697), +25440 tests (now 3.8 million) since a day ago — Fr. Polynesia: +25 cases (now 46375) since 23 hours ago | 02:31 |
| LjL | people *sigh* https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rmhzlg/israeli_drug_prevents_100_of_covid_patients_from/hpmqkuz/?context=3 | 02:34 |
| LjL | %title https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rm4ymn/omicron_has_80_lower_risk_of_hospitalization_new/ i think the bot has somehow neglected to post this | 02:54 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.reddit.com: Omicron Has 80% Lower Risk of Hospitalization, New Study Shows : Coronavirus | 02:54 |
| LjL | i'm doing the ryouma here a little, i guess i'll get downvoted, but meh https://np.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rm4ymn/omicron_has_80_lower_risk_of_hospitalization_new/hpmux59/ | 03:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Panama: +668 cases (now 484793), +10688 tests (now 4.4 million) since 20 hours ago — Sint Maarten: +30 cases (now 4735) since 22 hours ago | 03:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): MOV is a mimic of one unit of RNA, it gets used in place of a RNA by the viral RNA replicase. Experiments on coronavirus in cells showed that at high enough concentrations over several days, all virus was eliminated. The same was shown in some animals. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1473837742958149632 | 03:12 |
| LjL | "Are surgical masks better than cloth masks? Yes, probably. On average, maybe 10-20%." says this IATA guy about flying https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-22/omicron-at-least-doubles-risk-of-getting-infected-on-a-plane | 03:15 |
| LjL | dumb as fuck. why isn't he saying everyone should wear N95 (or equivalent)? no, just mentioning surgical and cloth | 03:16 |
| sdfgsdfg | the long term effects of covid are scary with that reddit comment... | 03:19 |
| sdfgsdfg | A family member of mine got covid back in January (2021). He just got diagnosed with "Pulmonary Fibrosis" (an issue in the lungs) and has been given 1-3 years to live. This man is so healthy, never smoked, hikes all the time, etc. Just so heartbreaking for our family, and I hope stuff like this doesn't keep happening. He wasn't vaccinated (vaccines were newer then, I think he was planning on it but hadn't gotten it yet) so pls make sure to get | 03:20 |
| sdfgsdfg | vaccinated to help avoid things like this. ETA someone asked me if I know it's from Covid or if I am speculating. The doctors said it's from covid, and his symptoms started as he recovered and only got worse until this diagnosis. It definitely seems to be from Covid. | 03:20 |
| sdfgsdfg | </quote> | 03:20 |
| LjL | there are a lot of comments in the threads i've read in the past hours from r/Coronavirus that are scary wrt long COVID :( | 03:24 |
| LjL | scary, demoralizing... | 03:24 |
| LjL | i've heard of other people having "mild" cases, "recovering", but then being disabled six months or one year later | 03:25 |
| LjL | i really don't think people "get" this enough. deaths are easy to count, and at some point, easy to discount too when they just become big numbers of presumably "old people with comorbidities" | 03:26 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: COMMENTARY: What can masks do? Part 1: The science behind COVID-19 protection ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/RQAFIFQ3 ) | 03:26 | |
| LjL | sdfgsdfg, check this out from the article i linked in my reddit comment: | 03:27 |
| LjL | Here’s an example of a Long COVID patient: Caitlin, the 28 year-old dietician who used to run for two hours every day, had COVID with mostly cold-like symptoms, and one year later is now almost completely bedridden: | 03:28 |
| LjL | “My symptoms change all the time. I’m happy if I can take a shower.” | 03:28 |
| LjL | https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/long-covid-chronic-fatigue-syndrome | 03:28 |
| LjL | "it's just a cold". yep. it was. at first. | 03:28 |
| LjL | “She struggles to brush her teeth or prepare meals, because her heart races to 180 beats a minute. (A typical rate is 60 to 100.) [...] she has to plan carefully in order to use the bathroom and feed herself without collapsing.” | 03:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): Everyone seemed to obsessed with Delta and vaccines to notice (it's tiring all the news, really). For non-academics, it can be hard to understand. That's why I'm explaining it here. People trusted that Merck couldn't possibly do something with a chance [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1473840755814764544 | 03:30 |
| sdfgsdfg | "...it’s very possible that about 10% of those who catch COVID develop some sort of CFS and they don’t recover." | 03:33 |
| sdfgsdfg | later on it also confirms "It looks like after 2 doses of vaccine, if you do have a breakthrough infection, the likelihood of having symptoms 28 days later is about half. This is true across the board for all symptoms:" | 03:35 |
| LjL | yes, "half" seems to be about right for the incidence of long COVID after vaccination | 03:36 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: A PHASE 1, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of Ranging Doses of SARS-COV-2-Spike-Ferritin-Nanoparticle (SPFN_1B-06-PL) Vaccine With Army Liposomal Formulation QS21 (ALFQ) for Prevention of COVID-19 in Healthy Adults. ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/GS8BH4RF ) | 03:36 | |
| LjL | (but then you also have to consider the lower probability of getting infected in the first place, although how much lower it is is not very clear to me at this point with all the vaccines and all the variants around) | 03:36 |
| LjL | this is the first actual trial - as in clinicaltrials.gov type page - i add to zotero, the intention is to have them "linked" (using the "related" tab) to the corresponding papers or in this case, press releases. i don't know if i'll do it consistently as i don't use clinicaltrials.gov very often | 03:38 |
| sdfgsdfg | I think not catching this thing should be way higher in priority than trying to live with it and trusting vax doses | 03:38 |
| LjL | i can try not catching it and also getting the vaccine | 03:39 |
| LjL | i'm not merely "trusting" the vaccine to not catch it | 03:39 |
| sdfgsdfg | a lot of people are though | 03:39 |
| sdfgsdfg | and all these festivals and christmas... | 03:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A monster new case wave is in the making. which will exceed last December/January. We're dependent on our immunity wall (vaccines and prior Covid) to defend against Omicron's impact. Well over 2,000 deaths today were from Delta infections. twitter.com/BNODesk/status… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1473843638807367680 | 03:40 |
| sdfgsdfg | I think it's time to make a Papr | 03:42 |
| LjL | enjoy your bubble life :P | 03:43 |
| LjL | i take my precautions, but i'd rather shoot myself in the brains now than fathom living in a PAPR suit | 03:43 |
| sdfgsdfg | you can use it only outdoors that should be enough | 03:44 |
| LjL | whew | 03:45 |
| LjL | it'll be like living on a Mars colony | 03:45 |
| sdfgsdfg | shopping with a papr, everyone smiling and waving | 03:45 |
| de-facto | I wish you a happy time during Christmas and stay healthy and happy | 03:46 |
| LjL | de-facto, you're disappearing for christmas? | 03:46 |
| de-facto | yep, gonna go visit my parents | 03:46 |
| sdfgsdfg | same de-facto merry christmas to you and everyone | 03:47 |
| LjL | de-facto, enjoy your time with them, merry christmas | 03:47 |
| LjL | merry may be a strong word, but it's what they say | 03:48 |
| de-facto | thank you :) | 03:48 |
| LjL | fröliche Weinachten? i think | 03:48 |
| sdfgsdfg | superfröhliche weihnachten und ein gutes neues jahr | 03:52 |
| LjL | you win | 03:57 |
| sdfgsdfg | it appears supplements don't help at all with prevention | 03:58 |
| sdfgsdfg | "a randomized controlled study of people with moderate to severe COVID-19 who received a high dose of vitamin D showed no benefit. Similarly, a 2021 study of zinc and vitamin C demonstrated no benefit for people with mild COVID-19. In this study, people whose symptoms did not require hospital admission were randomly assigned to receive" | 03:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): The problem with legal checkboxes is this: FDA and Merck aren't legally mandated to look out for public health, but it's everybody's obligation, whether written in Congressional statute or not, not to deliberately create new virus variants that can [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1473850013767770115 | 04:00 |
| LjL | that doesn't particularly surprise me, though | 04:00 |
| LjL | my hunch is that it may be helpful to boost vitamin D *before* catching COVID | 04:00 |
| LjL | not so sure it will help when you're already a severe case | 04:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mexico: +3319 cases (now 3.9 million), +198 deaths (now 298359), +19872 tests (now 12.2 million) since 23 hours ago | 04:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Derek Lowe (@Dereklowe): Small molecule manufacturing is not vaccine manufacturing. But that doesn’t mean that every chemical plant can suddenly turn out loads of Paxlovid.Where do you get your starting materials, for one? Logistics and supply chains are always a constraint. → https://twitter.com/Dereklowe/status/1473850716229931014 | 04:18 |
| sdfgsdfg | at least we can be sure that the vitamin D's deficiency causes immune system issues and many other things. And more than 30% of population suffers the deficiency apparently. Hmmm https://vitamindwiki.com/Natural+Ways+to+Increase+Calcitriol+and+Activate+The+Vitamin+D+Receptor+Gene+%E2%80%93+Oct+2017 | 04:22 |
| sdfgsdfg | .title | 04:22 |
| Brainstorm | sdfgsdfg: From vitamindwiki.com: Natural Ways to Increase Calcitriol and Activate The Vitamin D Receptor Gene – Oct 2017 | VitaminDWiki | 04:22 |
| sdfgsdfg | also https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34063015/#:~:text=Calcitriol%20use%20was%20associated%20with,with%20advanced%20chronic%20kidney%20disease. | 04:23 |
| sdfgsdfg | .title | 04:23 |
| Brainstorm | sdfgsdfg: From pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: Association of Calcitriol Supplementation with Reduced COVID-19 Mortality in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: A Population-Based Study - PubMed | 04:23 |
| sdfgsdfg | there was one without the kidney disease, which has basically the same outcome - I accidentally linked to the kidney version but I don't want to spam the channel lol | 04:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Covid: Only six people allowed to meet in pubs in Wales → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rmlw21/covid_only_six_people_allowed_to_meet_in_pubs_in/ | 04:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +105784 cases (now 11.7 million), +141 deaths (now 148038) since 16 hours ago — Netherlands: +13694 cases (now 3.1 million) since 22 hours ago | 04:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China orders lockdown of up to 13 million people in Xi'an → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rmm3sj/china_orders_lockdown_of_up_to_13_million_people/ | 04:37 |
| LjL | sdfgsdfg, spamming the channel with studies that are contextual is fine | 04:41 |
| LjL | but i know there are a few studies *associating* vitamin D deficiency with worse COVID outcomes | 04:42 |
| LjL | the problem is causation. and i personally think there is probably causation, but i'm not sure that has been properly shown | 04:42 |
| LjL | to do that you need to take two groups of healthy (but possibly, like many, vitamin D deficient), boost some, not boost the others, and then see what happens if/when they get COVID | 04:43 |
| LjL | but you need these two groups to be large since you don't know how many will get COVID | 04:43 |
| LjL | (although with Omicron...) | 04:43 |
| sdfgsdfg | maybe this --> | 04:45 |
| sdfgsdfg | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34273098/ | 04:45 |
| sdfgsdfg | .title | 04:45 |
| Brainstorm | sdfgsdfg: From pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: Vitamin D supplementation and COVID-19 risk: a population-based, cohort study - PubMed | 04:45 |
| LjL | hmm, "slight protection" | 04:47 |
| sdfgsdfg | All individuals ≥ 18 years old living in Barcelona-Central Catalonia (n = 4.6 million). So almost 5 million catalonians :D | 04:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): So I know this is a long thread, and thank you for bearing with me. MOV approval is most momentous decision the FDA will make in this epidemic, maybe in FDA history, maybe even in the entire history of pharmaceuticals. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1473860928365993984 | 04:47 |
| LjL | "Calcifediol use (n = 134,703) was not associated with reduced risk of SARS-CoV2 infection or mortality in the whole cohort. However, patients on calcifediol treatment achieving serum 25OHD levels ≥ 30 ng/ml also had lower risk of SARS-CoV2 infection, lower risk of severe COVID-19, and lower COVID-19 mortality compared to 25OHD-deficient patients not receiving vitamin D supplements" | 04:47 |
| LjL | if i understand this correctly, this basically says, whether they were supplementing or not didn't matter, what mattered was their serum levels being okay | 04:48 |
| LjL | but that kinda indicates association that might not be causation to me ;( | 04:48 |
| sdfgsdfg | 25OHD is vitamin D right ? calcifediol is D3 associated with receptors. | 04:51 |
| sdfgsdfg | hmmm | 04:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): Actually scrap that idea — nobody should volunteer for such a trial. Rather people should be swabbed daily and viruses grown up and their mutations characterized over a large number of patients. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1473863614528249857 | 04:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Japan: +267 cases (now 1.7 million), +2 deaths (now 18383), +55260 tests (now 29.0 million) since 23 hours ago | 05:00 |
| LjL | sdfgsdfg, yes, it's what you actually measure in the blood | 05:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Early Remdesivir to Prevent Progression to Severe Covid-19 in Outpatients → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rmmor1/early_remdesivir_to_prevent_progression_to_severe/ | 05:25 |
| oerheks | reddit is the best source for news - | 05:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Derek Lowe (@Dereklowe): @EricTopol @TomVaid @joshtpm @WhiteHouse @POTUS @kiranstacey @FT I don’t know the exact situation with the Paxlovid process, but it’s generally a solid bet that these starting mats. eventually trace back to Chinese and Indian suppliers. Very little [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Dereklowe/status/1473872691744673795 | 05:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +44313 cases (now 6.9 million) since 23 hours ago — Belgium: +5838 cases (now 2.0 million), +32 deaths (now 28067) since a day ago | 05:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Israel to offer fourth COVID-19 vaccine dose in bid to outpace Omicron → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/israel-to-offer-fourth-covid-19-vaccine-dose-in-bid-to-outpace-omicron-7686481/ | 05:44 |
| oerheks | "New York State, with >95% Omicron .." .. nobody believes Eric Topol | 05:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: I Disagree With an Article Called “Vaccines Save Lives”: For contrarian doctors anchored to their ideas and sheltered from their consequences, it’s easier to erase 1,000 dead children, ignore overwhelmed pediatricians, and disparage an effective [... want %more?] → https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/i-disagree-with-an-article-called-vaccines-save-lives/ | 06:12 |
| oerheks | there are more excess deaths than covid deaths | 06:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Omicron infections seem to be milder, three research teams report → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/omicron-infections-seem-to-be-milder-three-research-teams-report-covid-19-7686540/ | 06:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: U.K. system strained as health care workers get COVID themselves → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/u-k-system-strained-as-health-care-workers-get-covid-themselves-7686552/ | 06:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for England, United Kingdom: +95005 cases (now 9.9 million), +123 deaths (now 128289) since a day ago — New York, United States: +28243 cases (now 3.0 million), +71 deaths (now 58796) since a day ago — Madrid, Spain: +15741 cases (now 992842) since a day ago — Ohio, United States: +12864 cases (now 1.9 million) since a day ago | 06:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Steve Miller (@SteveMillerOC): My simple estimate from last week that Omicron is about 50% as severe is holding up well. twitter.com/stevemilleroc/… → https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1473889808405590017 | 06:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Steve Miller (@SteveMillerOC): My back of the napkin estimate from two weeks ago of Omicron in the US is still in the right ballpark.Most assumptions are holding up other than equal severity. twitter.com/stevemilleroc/… → https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1473893571027632128 | 07:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +2671 cases (now 34.8 million), +291 deaths (now 478759) since 7 hours ago | 07:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: French kids line up to get Covid vaccine shots as Omicron spreads → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/french-kids-line-up-to-get-covid-vaccine-shots-as-omicron-spreads-7686619/ | 07:19 |
| oerheks | mir-19 .. https://www.rt.com/russia/544040-aerosol-drug-covid-omicron/ | 07:27 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Turks and Caicos: +30 cases (now 3208) since 20 hours ago | 07:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Hospital overload: Korea orders 210 COVID-19 patients to leave ICUs → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rmp72o/hospital_overload_korea_orders_210_covid19/ | 07:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from MedicineNet: (news): School COVID Outbreaks Drop When Adults Wear Masks, Study Finds → http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp | 07:56 |
| minthos | I got a box of FFP2 masks (3m aura) a few days ago, they're great | 07:59 |
| minthos | good fit, easy to breathe in | 07:59 |
| minthos | don't believe anyone who tells you disposable masks are single use | 08:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: How social media live streaming, videos helped brands stay afloat in the pandemic → https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/life-style/social-media-lives-help-brands-stores-business-pandemic-marketing-strategy-products-sales-facebook-instagram-live-videos-interaction-views-7684303/ | 08:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): Addendum: great accessible thread here from @dgurdasani1 unpicking precisely what the Imperial paper tells us, including its demonstration of the significance of the fact that Omicron is much likely to cause reinfections twitter.com/dgurdasani1/st… → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1473914565683552257 | 08:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Canada expands aid programs to fight Omicron, says worse yet to come → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/canada-expands-aid-programs-to-fight-omicron-says-worse-yet-to-come-7686599/ | 08:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +105814 cases (now 11.7 million) since 20 hours ago | 08:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Spain records highest daily Covid-19 cases since pandemic began [49,823] → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rmq483/spain_records_highest_daily_covid19_cases_since/ | 08:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Omicron less likely to put you in the hospital, studies say → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rmqbe3/omicron_less_likely_to_put_you_in_the_hospital/ | 08:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): This is good news. For vaccinated and convalescent individuals. twitter.com/EricTopol/stat… → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1473926925185912832 | 09:13 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Maharashtra, India: +1201 cases (now 6.7 million), +8 deaths (now 141375) since a day ago — Delhi, India: +125 cases (now 1.4 million) since a day ago — Gujarat, India: +91 cases (now 828794), +2 deaths (now 10106) since a day ago — Haryana, India: +55 cases (now 772326) since a day ago | 09:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Early Remdesivir to Prevent Progression to Severe Covid-19 in Outpatients → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rmr1e3/early_remdesivir_to_prevent_progression_to_severe/ | 09:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Hospitalisation rate lower for Omicron than Delta coronavirus variant, says UK study → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/hospitalisation-rate-lower-for-omicron-than-delta-coronavirus-variant-uk-study-7686894/ | 10:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New UK study confirms the previous South African study that Omicron is causing less severe infection despite similar transmission rates like the delta variant → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rmrgjz/new_uk_study_confirms_the_previous_south_african/ | 10:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: 53 of 65 confirmed imported Omicron COVID-19 cases arrived in Singapore through vaccinated travel lanes: Ministry of Health → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rmrjgl/53_of_65_confirmed_imported_omicron_covid19_cases/ | 10:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Mandatory Covid jabs in Malawi ‘violate human rights’, say civil society groups | Global development → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rmrmlj/mandatory_covid_jabs_in_malawi_violate_human/ | 10:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Estonia: +866 cases (now 234958), +4 deaths (now 1899), +8128 tests (now 2.5 million) since 22 hours ago | 10:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): This has been a particular concern regarding omicron and delta; that they diverge enough genetically for the two to stay prevalent in the same communities, as seen here from London where both O and D increases, and that people may get infected by both [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1473950483555532800 | 10:39 |
| sdfgsdfg | daamn look at dis | 10:42 |
| sdfgsdfg | "In vitro data show that, in addition to modulating innate immune cells, vitamin D also promotes a more tolerogenic immunological status. In vivo data from animals and from human vitamin D supplementation studies have shown beneficial effects of vitamin D on immune function, in particular in the context of autoimmunity" | 10:42 |
| sdfgsdfg | I'm more amazed about D than covid right now | 10:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): On 21/11, 83.7% of London beds occupied by confirmed COVID patients were being treated primarily for COVID.On 21/12, this had dropped to 74.7% - an artefact of the high prevalence in London, which means more “incidental” admissions and nosocomial [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1473954118360346625 | 10:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Israel: +1712 cases (now 1.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 11:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Omicron have an 80% lower risk of hospitalization. Report shows → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rmse7o/omicron_have_an_80_lower_risk_of_hospitalization/ | 11:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Coronavirus: Boosters key to tackling Omicron but reworked jabs may be needed, data suggests → https://www.politico.eu/article/boosters-key-tackling-omicron-coronavirus-reworked-vaccines/ | 11:26 |
| illusionlife[m] | Book Using Common God Sense To Increase Your Intelligence, Live To Thousand Year. Everybody Can Get It For Free | 11:28 |
| illusionlife[m] | https://illusioncyber.wordpress.com/2021/12/23/using-common-god-sense-to-increase-your-intelligence-live-to-thousand-year/ | 11:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +241 cases (now 826664), +2 deaths (now 11581), +9510 tests (now 4.8 million) since 22 hours ago | 11:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Jeffrey Barrett (@jcbarret): Special mid-week pre-update to covid19.sanger.ac.uk brings data up to week ending 18 December. #Omicron changes fast. Note the absolute genomes will dip in the most recent week, as it's incomplete, but the new estimated cases view should be approximately right. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1473963560946520064 | 11:36 |
| aradesh | there was a link the other day about omicron maybe appearing to be milder could be partially due to immunity/vaccines? anyone got it? | 11:39 |
| oerheks | or covid is dying.. like the spanish flu (originated in Boston) only lasted 2 years | 11:50 |
| Dredd | LjL @LjL:libera.chat: lol, my PCR kit was delivered at 12:42am | 12:00 |
| Dredd | I guess they are operating somewhat outside the normal constraints of the mail for the lab deliveries | 12:00 |
| Dredd | <aradesh> "there was a link the other day..." <- That's been proposed a bunch of times by different people in the last few weeks | 12:03 |
| minthos | I searched for info about a afternoon napping and muscle recovery (it's good for it, turns out it's good for pretty much everything) but when I looked for info about naps an immune function the study I found only looked at sleep deprived subjects. What about subjects who aren't sleep deprived? (btw sleep deprivation is terrible for the immune system and even makes vaccines less effective, nobody talks | 12:04 |
| minthos | much about that) | 12:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: UK approves Covid jab for under-12s as new daily cases top 100,000 - EasternEye → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rmt1dy/uk_approves_covid_jab_for_under12s_as_new_daily/ | 12:04 |
| Dredd | I don't think the uptake of jabs in the young will be high here in the UK. It's already low in the 12+ group and first and second jab rates are pretty low these days | 12:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Coronavirus: Europe debates 4th coronavirus vaccine as German minister backs double booster → https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-fourth-coronavirus-vaccine-germany-minister-karl-lauterbach-booster/ | 12:14 |
| finely[m] | <LjL> ""Are surgical masks better..." <- Why not both? | 12:19 |
| finely[m] | https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/12/mask-up-how-to-choose-and-maintain-the-best-masks-for-use-against-covid-19/6/#h1 | 12:19 |
| finely[m] | "double masking combined with knotting and tucking appears highly effective for source control and exposure—particularly when both subjects are double masked" | 12:19 |
| minthos | wear a proper mask underneath, add whatever bullshit mask idiots require you to wear on top? | 12:24 |
| undefined_bob | a good N95 mask is usually good enough. A proper fit is more important. If one want one can wear a surgical mask on top of ones N95 mask to protect the mask against big dropplets and make it last a bit longer | 12:27 |
| Tuvix | Some medical professionals add a surgical mask on top of a skin-fitted mask for certain types of procedures, although there at least the surgical mask is still manufactured with electrostatitally charged layers. | 12:27 |
| undefined_bob | ^^ | 12:28 |
| Tuvix | The CDC (and perhaps the health agencies from other countries too) has guidance on re-using N95 & KN95 style masks as well; it mostly boils down to storing them so they can dry out between uses and not collect dirt or dust while being stored. | 12:28 |
| undefined_bob | yes. Its difficult. Most manufactures have not approved any ways of desinfecting masks | 12:29 |
| finely[m] | I heard a the difference between a surgical mask an an I'll fitted p2 mask is minimal. The CDC recommendation of special folding technique for surgical mask in addition to cloth mask on top seems to really stop a lot of air leakage. | 12:29 |
| finely[m] | If those are mask you gave available, this is the best way to use them. | 12:29 |
| undefined_bob | p2? | 12:30 |
| undefined_bob | you mean FFP2? | 12:30 |
| Tuvix | Fitting is important I'd argue with any mask. I've seen people with KN95 masks at the store down below their nose. At that point the value is almost worthless :\ | 12:31 |
| finely[m] | I think so. | 12:31 |
| undefined_bob | FFP2/KN95 do have a much higher filter rate than surgical masks. they are not even really comparable. | 12:31 |
| undefined_bob | Tuvix: a surgical or cloth mask will mostly never fit really tight and good | 12:31 |
| undefined_bob | they are not made for that | 12:31 |
| Tuvix | Right, surgical mask are really just designed for minimal source control of heavier dropplets, not the aerosols that are the primary way SARS-CoV2 spreads. | 12:32 |
| undefined_bob | yes | 12:32 |
| undefined_bob | ohh its noodles time. brb | 12:32 |
| Tuvix | It _will_ capture some of the heavier particles and isn't worthless, but is a lot less effective in say an indoor area. Surgical or cloth masks also offer the wearer very minimal protection, though it seems there may still be a small value. | 12:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Double vaccinated and still infected with Omicron? Here’s how long you should isolate → https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/health/double-vaccination-omicron-covid19-quarantine-isolation-treatment-7686982/ | 12:33 |
| finely[m] | The CDC study claims double masking "reduced the source's emission of particles by 77 percent in a simulated cough and protected a wearer from an unmasked source at about 65 percent efficacy". | 12:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Uganda: +710 cases (now 130888), +6992 tests (now 2.1 million) since a day ago | 12:35 |
| Tuvix | I'm fortinuate enough to have been gifted a reusable fitting silicone-sealing mask with replacable filters that are electrostatically charged. It hasn't yet gone through the formal national rating process, but has data from a university engineering lab demonstrating the filter effectiveness. | 12:43 |
| Tuvix | Provided the seal is managed properly, it boasts up to a 98.3 to 99.6% filtration at 0.1 micron. That's just smaller than the size the virus is (cited at about 0.12 microns.) N95 masks are also rated to 0.1 microns, at 95% efficiency. | 12:47 |
| finely[m] | Is the electrostatic effect why masks become useless when wet? | 12:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): ("for vs with" data only starts in Jun 2021, so for Alpha wave I’m assuming fixed proportion of patients were being treated primarily for Covid, and that it was in line with the share seen over autumn. This could be wrong, but is unlikely to change [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1473983848706973696 | 12:52 |
| Tuvix | Intresting question. I don't have a good reference offhand, but some of the citations in section 5.1.6 here might be useful if you wanted to dig further into that: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2452199X20301481 | 12:54 |
| Tuvix | Li et al. and Richardson et al. may be worth checking out. | 12:55 |
| finely[m] | Thanks. | 12:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Senegal: +33 cases (now 74256), +1546 tests (now 907981) since 23 hours ago | 13:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Over 120 years old church reopens in Srinagar after 30 years → https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/life-style/over-120-years-old-church-reopens-in-srinagar-after-30-years-7686690/ | 13:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Covid spoils another Christmas in the Holy Land → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/covid-israel-holy-land-christmas-7687086/ | 13:20 |
| sdfgsdfg | is covid finally dying ? | 13:35 |
| sdfgsdfg | wow that's a relief, we should celebrate it | 13:35 |
| sdfgsdfg | I call for a 5 day festival :P | 13:36 |
| sdfgsdfg | seriously though I think it could be just beginning | 13:36 |
| sdfgsdfg | won't be surprised if this goes on for another 8 years | 13:37 |
| sdfgsdfg | its definitely not like the spanish flu | 13:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Malta: +733 cases (now 43806) since a day ago | 13:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Omicron: Half of colds will be Covid, warn UK researchers: If you have a sore throat, runny nose and a headache, get a Covid test, experts advise. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59768366 | 13:40 |
| sdfgsdfg | imagine half of colds being covid and living with covid | 13:44 |
| sdfgsdfg | what a joke | 13:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Omicron symptoms: Is a runny nose a cold or Covid? → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54145299 | 13:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Omicron: Rising numbers of NHS staff off work because of Covid → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59769251 | 13:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Zambia: +3380 cases (now 225260), +3 deaths (now 3688), +13341 tests (now 2.9 million) since 23 hours ago — UAE: +1002 cases (now 746557), +365269 tests (now 108.3 million) since 23 hours ago — Bangladesh: +382 cases (now 1.6 million), +2 deaths (now 28054), +19624 tests (now 11.3 million) since a day ago | 14:03 |
| aradesh | "the key protagonists in the ‘anti-vaxx industry’ are a coherent group of professional propagandists. These are people running multi-million-dollar organizations, incorporated mainly in the USA, with as many as 60 staff each" | 14:18 |
| aradesh | from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01260-6 | 14:18 |
| aradesh | "They produce training manuals for activists, tailor their messages for different audiences, and arrange meetings akin to annual trades conferences, like any other industry" | 14:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Vaccination Campaign: Spain, Greece reintroduce mandatory mask wearing amid record COVID-19 surge → https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-greece-mandatory-masks-outdoors-coronavirus-restrictions-omicron-crhistmas/ | 14:19 |
| aradesh | crazy pseudo science orgs | 14:28 |
| undefined_bob | aradesh: but they are really good at taking the money from the stupid | 14:28 |
| Tuvix | aradesh: There have been a number of deep dives into that; On-Point had a podcast back from Aug-06 (if the date on this is right anyway) that digs into the "Disinformation Dozen", which by cited reports were responsible for 65% of anti-vax disinformation on social media. | 14:34 |
| Tuvix | If you want to learn more: https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/08/06/vaccine-misinformation-and-a-look-inside-the-disinformation-dozen | 14:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Estimated 1.4 million people in UK had Covid in week to December 16 | ITV News → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rmvifl/estimated_14_million_people_in_uk_had_covid_in/ | 14:38 |
| aradesh | interesting stuff | 14:40 |
| sdfgsdfg | whoa, look at those numbers | 14:40 |
| aradesh | seems to be all america | 14:40 |
| sdfgsdfg | 1.4 mill in a week or 1.4 total until that week | 14:41 |
| aradesh | it won't be 1.4 mil new cases | 14:41 |
| aradesh | probably 1.4 currently infected in that week? | 14:41 |
| aradesh | we had our first day with 100,000 new cases the other day | 14:41 |
| aradesh | you'd need voer 200,000 to get 1.4 mil new ones in a week | 14:42 |
| xx | aradesh: which country is that? | 14:42 |
| xx | NL? | 14:42 |
| aradesh | UK | 14:42 |
| sdfgsdfg | that sounds like the first movie of a trilogy like the lord of the rings | 14:42 |
| xx | oh wow, I thought the max was 80k | 14:42 |
| aradesh | nope we had 100k the other day first time | 14:42 |
| sdfgsdfg | the road ever goes on | 14:42 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Saudi Arabia: +287 cases (now 551749), +1 deaths (now 8868), +63737 tests (now 32.6 million) since 23 hours ago — Switzerland: +5480 cases (now 1.2 million), +34 deaths (now 12091), +72743 tests (now 13.8 million) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +45419 cases (now 6.9 million) since 22 hours ago | 14:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: A three-dose course of AstraZeneca's vaccine is effective against Omicron, Oxford study finds - EasternEye → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rmvnfq/a_threedose_course_of_astrazenecas_vaccine_is/ | 14:47 |
| sdfgsdfg | israel and the fourth vaccine wave sounds cool. Imagine how good protection you would get from the 4th dose. It could be even better with omicron than 3rd booster | 14:53 |
| sdfgsdfg | I can't wait for the lab study on 4th dose | 14:53 |
| sdfgsdfg | maybe 4th dose protects against omicron 160% LOL | 14:54 |
| xx | isn't it a 4th booster, so 5th dose overall? | 14:55 |
| sdfgsdfg | if a new variant comes in first half of 2022 I'm moving north | 14:55 |
| sdfgsdfg | xx sounds even better | 14:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Less severe illness related to Omicron doesn't mean our hospitals and healthcare workforce will not be overrun. They will.1. Look at the UK nytimes.com/2021/12/22/wor… by @meganspecia pic.twitter.com/Xs2KQwJZgH → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1474014177794527237 | 14:57 |
| xx | I say let the healthcare workers have some rest and enjoy the holidays. Close down hospitals for the next 14 days at least. | 14:58 |
| minthos | haha | 14:58 |
| xx | you can bet your ass people would suddenly be more careful overall if they knew hospitals are closed down | 14:59 |
| xx | like I might actually wear functional shoes so that I don't slip on ice, instead of these fancy looking boots that don't have as much grip | 15:00 |
| xx | life is so easy knowing I can just call a taxi to the hospital (also called an ambulance in some countries) whenever anything happens to me, and the docs will fix me right up | 15:00 |
| xx | if such a service would not exist, of course I'd be more careful | 15:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: How COVID-19 Booster Shots Affect Herd Immunity: Dr Jason Gallagher explains how COVID-19 booster shots affect herd immunity in the United States. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/how-covid-19-booster-shots-affect-herd-immunity | 15:07 |
| undefined_bob | but xx my winter boots are at the shoe repair guy at the moment :( | 15:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Paxlovid's complex chemical structure. As I've now learned from several organic and industrial chemists, scaling of production at or beyond Pfizer's projections will be extremely difficult, including reagents and materials that may be hard to come [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1474019309349265414 | 15:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes Additional Oral Antiviral for Treatment of COVID-19 in Certain Adults → http://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-additional-oral-antiviral-treatment-covid-19-certain | 15:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Denmark: +17755 cases (now 665142), +59 deaths (now 3173) since 17 hours ago — Qatar: +187 cases (now 247269), +5373 tests (now 3.1 million) since a day ago | 15:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: FDA authorizes Merck’s Covid-19 pill, but stresses its use should be limited: The FDA granted emergency authorization to Merck’s molnupiravir, an antiviral pill shown to reduce hospitalization and death in cases of Covid-19, the second such [... want %more?] → https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/23/fda-authorizes-mercks-covid-19-pill-but-stresses-its-use-should-be-limited/ | 15:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US authorizes Merck’s at-home antiviral COVID-19 pill → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/us-covid-19-pill-merck-omicron-7687472/ | 16:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Omicron or Delta variants following a two-dose or booster BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccination series: A Danish cohort study → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rmxndf/vaccine_effectiveness_against_sarscov2_infection/ | 16:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Steve Miller (@SteveMillerOC): Gauteng hospitalization in decline is very good news.But the comparison of Omicron to Delta will not be the same for the US, UK and Europe as in South Africa.They had no vaccination during Delta but do now. Their Omicron case peak barely exceeded [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1474040062996221952 | 16:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Investigating COVID-19 Vaccine Immunity in Children in the Melbourne Infant Study of BCG for Allergy and Infection Reduction → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05168709 | 17:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a 2-dose Regimen With Ad5-nCoV and Ad5-nCoV-IH in Children and Adolescents Aged 6-17 Years → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05169008 | 17:23 |
| LjL | Lombardy has 13k cases today, up from 10k yesterday, and it's estimated (not really sure how) that 40% are now Omicron. we're mostly out of rapid tests, hours queues for PCR, and FFP2 masks are to become mandatory on public transport soon, so i bet we'll be out of masks soon too | 17:28 |
| Tuvix | Meanwhile here in a region of the US with ICUs effectively full, masks are commonly not worn indoors. I should snap some photos of my pharmacy visit today for Pfizer #3 with all the unmasked shoppers getting final holiday gifts or various perscription / OTC drugs. | 17:30 |
| Tuvix | Good excuse to swap out my mask filter to a fresh one I guess. | 17:31 |
| LjL | Tuvix, did you see my remark on an interview with an IATA spokesperson last night? felt surreal. they mentioned surgical masks as 10-20% safer than cloth masks. N95 were not mentioned *at all*. in the context of being 10 hours on a plane! | 17:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Efficacy Study of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine in Regions With SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05168813 | 17:32 |
| Tuvix | LjL: Ah, no, but I'm not surprised. Some of the messaging has until quite recently been *not* to buy N95 masks since there was fear of long-term supply problems getting them to healthcare workers. | 17:33 |
| LjL | Tuvix, quite recently? that was my pet peeve but... in 2020... | 17:33 |
| Tuvix | I've got a "Breathe99" brand mask; it's not got any federal approvals, but is designed to exceed the N95 standard, with independent lab testing to back that up. | 17:33 |
| LjL | i mean, it still is, as i bring up it as a counterproductive lie every time i want to bring up counterproductive lies. but i didn't realize it was still being perpetuated | 17:34 |
| Tuvix | Only in the past few weeks has the messaging from some health officials started to suggest the use of KN95 or N95 masks. | 17:34 |
| LjL | Tuvix, do you trust the lab? there has been a lawsuit/scandal here over a mask that claimed FFP2-like efficacy but it took a year before they were finally fined and taken off the market | 17:34 |
| Tuvix | Part of that is just that mask wearing is so lax in most of the US anyway that I think they're happy to see *any* uptake in mask wearing. | 17:35 |
| Tuvix | Yea, this is from a local and well-respected university. | 17:35 |
| LjL | okay | 17:35 |
| LjL | Tuvix, well i don't think there's much getting around that to gain adoption of some things, they have to be made mandatory | 17:35 |
| Tuvix | Right, and even at businesses that "require masks", it's often ignored. I had to stop at a print shop earlier this week, and 2 out of 2 (100%) of the customers in the shop had no masks, only the employees. | 17:36 |
| LjL | at least for a while. here people still wear them, even outdoors, not all of them, perhaps not even a majority, but a substantial minority do, even though they're *no longer* mandatory (outdoors). but i'm not sure it would be this way if they had *never* been mandatory. | 17:36 |
| LjL | Tuvix, it's even worse in the UK, where apparently *the employees* are the ones NOT required to wear masks. how exactly do they think they can possibly demand it from customers, when they're not masked themselves? | 17:37 |
| Tuvix | Yea, that's weird, especially since they're literally in near-contact with every customer that comes in. | 17:37 |
| Tuvix | Here it's more common that a business requires it by employees, but even if it's encouraged/required for customers, the poor sales clerks can't really do much about it without local rules to fall back on. | 17:38 |
| Tuvix | And realistically, angry customers would just refuse or take business elsewhere, and businesses know that. | 17:38 |
| Tuvix | A couple of short stories from people impacted by the ICU surge in Minnesota: https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2021/12/16/covid-in-minnesota-beds-not-available-for-er-patients-as-hospital-capacity-pushed-to-limits/ | 17:39 |
| LjL | that's why you need to require it of all businesses | 17:39 |
| LjL | and that's what we do, and what most of continental Europe does | 17:39 |
| Tuvix | Nothing like double-digit wait times to get a bed for a suspected heart attack… | 17:39 |
| Tuvix | double digit _hours_ | 17:39 |
| LjL | (and technically the UK is back to doing that, but as i said if it's not required of personnel...) | 17:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +13380 cases (now 3.1 million), +40 deaths (now 21084) since 17 hours ago — Canada: +15193 cases (now 1.9 million), +22 deaths (now 30172) since 22 hours ago | 17:41 |
| LjL | Tuvix, the way it works here is there's a percentage of ICU beds allotted to COVID patients. then at least in theory, if it gets exceeded in one region, that region automatically moves to "yellow alert" level. not much changes, but like, masks are required outdoors. that level is 15% i believe. then if they pass 30%, it goes into "orange alert" and restaurants cannot serve indoors. if it passes 40%, "red alert" and it's basically lockdown. | 17:42 |
| LjL | (but also, vaccines are virtually mandatory, even though i find the green pass system a bit silly) | 17:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): CONFIDENT: Supporting Long-term Care Workers During COVID-19 → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05168800 | 17:42 |
| Jigsy | 120K today in the UK. | 17:43 |
| Tuvix | There were some very limited metric-based restrictions like that across some US states and counties, but it was very spotty, and effectively all of those kinds of science-based-limits have evaporated completely now. | 17:43 |
| Tuvix | At this point there's notable backlash any time a politician tries to do anything similar. | 17:43 |
| Tuvix | _some_ cities have some new rules going in place, but that just means if you don't like them you travel the next town over for your night of maskless socialization. | 17:44 |
| LjL | Jigsy, it feels like March 2020 again | 17:48 |
| Tuvix | One of my German friends elsewhere described much of the vaccination requirement as any of the "fun" things people want to do that involves in-person contact requires proof of vaccination. | 17:48 |
| xx | should require proof of non-infectivity instead | 17:48 |
| xx | every place should require a negative test | 17:48 |
| LjL | Tuvix, Germany has a really complex pass system. a bit too complex, if you ask me. 1G, 2G, 2G+, 3G, 3G+ (and now you will be able to have two different types of 3G+, one being two vaccine shots + one test, another three vaccine shots) | 17:49 |
| Tuvix | Well, we'd need a much better distribution and very reduced to free cost of tests then. Lots of places in the US are sold out, and at $7 to $15 for a 2-pack, that's not cheap. | 17:49 |
| LjL | indeed, tests are sold out here as well | 17:49 |
| LjL | i am very mad about it, because it wasn't really hard to predict that people would want tests around Christmas, and that we'd be having a wave | 17:50 |
| LjL | but if it's a worldwide shortage, maybe not much could be done by our government | 17:50 |
| Jigsy | I've heard some people in the UK aren't having tests. | 17:50 |
| Jigsy | Because they don't want to have to self-isolate. | 17:50 |
| LjL | Tuvix, it's €5 for *one test* here :| | 17:50 |
| Tuvix | Right, and the speed at which omicron is moving has surprised everyone. | 17:50 |
| Tuvix | Or, nearly everyone anyway. | 17:50 |
| Jigsy | I haven't had my third booster. | 17:50 |
| Jigsy | Still waiting until January. | 17:51 |
| Jigsy | Thankfully I'm not an outdoorsy person. | 17:51 |
| LjL | Tuvix, it shouldn't have, though, not after we saw south africa. but yeah, that's why i'm mad, until just days ago my government was still gloating about how good of an example our green pass system set (as if it were any different than what the rest of europe is doing now) | 17:51 |
| Jigsy | So I doubt I'll be going anywhere for the next two weeks. | 17:51 |
| Jigsy | Honestly hoping for another lockdown, though. | 17:51 |
| LjL | oh shit | 17:51 |
| LjL | 44k cases today, up from 36k yesterday | 17:52 |
| LjL | this is not good | 17:52 |
| LjL | out of how many tests is this... | 17:52 |
| xx | amateurs in germany, they have 3G while the rest of us have 5G already | 17:52 |
| LjL | well, almost a million, but still | 17:52 |
| LjL | xx, i only have 4G because my carrier charges extra for 5G ;( | 17:53 |
| LjL | can't say i miss it | 17:53 |
| xx | heh, if people actually had 5G here, they'd burn through their data cap in under 1s :D | 17:53 |
| LjL | it looks like in particular, the positive antigen test percentage is about to skyrocket. PCR tests are usually much more sensitive (and indeed they've been going up for a while), but antigen tests kept the nominal positive ratio down | 17:54 |
| LjL | xx, 5G is not actually that much faster than 4G, unless it means mmWave, which is not very common | 17:54 |
| LjL | 5G is more flexible though | 17:54 |
| LjL | (also most phones don't support mmWave) | 17:55 |
| xx | I wouldn't really know, I lined all the walls of my house with aluminum foil | 17:55 |
| xx | it's a eco-house, so it doesn't have any windows either, due to the massive heat losses that usually go through them | 17:56 |
| xx | and the aluminum foil helps lower the requirement of inside lighting compared to regular white paint | 17:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Portugal: +10549 cases (now 1.3 million), +17 deaths (now 18840) since a day ago | 18:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: UK data suggests Omicron has lower hospitalization risk than Delta: Patients with Omicron variant were 50 to 70 percent less likely to be admitted to hospital compared with the Delta strain. → https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-data-omicron-lower-hospitalization-risk-delta/ | 18:11 |
| LjL | hmm, 50 to 70, i heard 40 earlier, i bet it's the same study but rendered differently by various articles | 18:13 |
| LjL | still, yesterday it said the South Africa study showed 80% | 18:13 |
| LjL | if it's closer to 40%, i guess that's better than 0%, but it won't be even close to counteracting the higher infectivity | 18:14 |
| Tuvix | Even in the "best" case of 30% hospitalizations, all it takes is 333% cases vs. the delta surge to have the same hospitalization rate | 18:14 |
| LjL | still something approaching an order of magnitude less hospitalizations would be *slightly* reassuring | 18:15 |
| Tuvix | Presumably that rate will occur faster too givent how much this spreads, which also isn't good for healthcare, especially in areas where vaccination or other mitigations aren't common. | 18:15 |
| LjL | of course all it takes is always just the inverse in cases | 18:15 |
| Tuvix | Yup, lots of variables that we really won't know the full impact of until we're in it. | 18:15 |
| LjL | Tuvix, since i'm talking about that elsewhere, do you happen to have a theory as to why Japan has been doing so good, especially since after the last wave? (although there are very early signs of a possible omicron wave starting) | 18:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: December 23, 2021 → http://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-december-23-2021 | 18:21 |
| LjL | "Data show that it is unlikely that bamlanivimab and etesevimab administered together or REGEN-COV will retain activity against this variant." | 18:22 |
| LjL | "sotrovimab appears to retain activity against the Omicron variant." | 18:22 |
| LjL | having just one monoclonal antibody would be concerning. you usually need a cocktail to avoid nastiness. | 18:23 |
| LjL | "Merck’s molnupiravir is authorized for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in adults with positive results of direct SARS-CoV-2 viral testing" ← ugh i didn't realize Merck's *was* authorized. that doesn't make me happy. | 18:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Omicron up to 70% less likely to need hospital care: However, a major report showed the protection from catching Covid started to wane 10 weeks after the booster. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59769969 | 18:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: NC police chief on unpaid leave after telling officers about 'clinic' to obtain fake COVID-19 vaccination cards :: WRAL.com → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rn0kdt/nc_police_chief_on_unpaid_leave_after_telling/ | 18:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Theo Sanderson (@theosanderson): 10% of Omicron infections are known reinfections (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…) - meaning as I understand it that these will be excluded from dashboard case numbers → https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1474074192303820801 | 18:50 |
| lastshell | how things going on ? | 18:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +44585 cases (now 5.5 million), +168 deaths (now 136245), +901450 tests (now 133.2 million) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +54010 cases (now 11.8 million), +1656309 tests (now 393.8 million) since 23 hours ago — Morocco: +475 cases (now 954199), +6 deaths (now 14823), +17095 tests (now 10.7 million) since a day ago | 19:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Steve Miller (@SteveMillerOC): The correlation in time between rising Omicron and bending down of Delta curve also holds true when you look at the data for other regions. twitter.com/theosanderson/… → https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1474078485324779520 | 19:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Theo Sanderson (@theosanderson): It is likely that 83% of sequences in England with specimen dates of 20 December were Omicron, with London at 90%.(Square points indicate Mondays. 20 December specimens may be incomplete.) pic.twitter.com/vdFXjVMpGz → https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1474079749605580807 | 19:19 |
| LjL | lastshell, people are scared | 19:21 |
| LjL | my cousin probably has covid | 19:21 |
| lastshell | oh shit | 19:21 |
| lastshell | is he vaccinated LjL ? | 19:22 |
| LjL | okay, not "probably" | 19:22 |
| LjL | she's just tested positive | 19:22 |
| lastshell | sorry to hear about that | 19:22 |
| LjL | she is vaccinated, but only two doses | 19:24 |
| lastshell | I hope she recover soon | 19:25 |
| LjL | i hope so, but also, she lives with her parents and her mom has already had COVID last year, while her dad has some health issues, so if he catches it too, it's a problem | 19:26 |
| LjL | and her mom had only J&J due to having had COVID... her dad had two doses only | 19:26 |
| lastshell | she needs to isolate her | 19:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ireland: +7411 cases (now 680375) since a day ago — Mozambique: +2445 cases (now 167307), +1 deaths (now 1961), +6262 tests (now 1.0 million) since 23 hours ago — Malawi: +1192 cases (now 68470), +2 deaths (now 2319), +2575 tests (now 470967) since 20 hours ago | 19:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): I regraphed some of the residual Omicron/B.1.1.529 neutralization data from our recent preprint. This makes a very strong case for getting a booster dose and for getting vaccinated if you are convalescent but not yet [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1474086128949108737 | 19:38 |
| LjL | lastshell, she's isolating in her room, but there's only so much they can't do, you can't make a house | 19:44 |
| LjL | most apartments aren't huge, and most italians live in apartments | 19:44 |
| lastshell | oh | 19:44 |
| xx | still better to stay away from other positive people, it will decrease the amount of extra viral particles being inhaled | 19:46 |
| LjL | in theory she needs to confirm it with a PCR but her doctor said he/she tried to find a PCR center for her with some slots free, but failed | 19:51 |
| LjL | but the lateral flow is positive and she has fever, so | 19:51 |
| lastshell | LjL what are the current treatments if you test positive for covid ? | 19:51 |
| LjL | i don't know, probably just "take paracetamol", but may depend on your doctor | 19:52 |
| LjL | i don't think there's much actual treatment until you're in hospital :( | 19:52 |
| LjL | and i suspect that's why italy has always done so badly with mortality | 19:53 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 19:53 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Italy has had 5.5 million confirmed cases (9.2% of all people) and 136245 deaths (2.5% of cases; 1 in 442 people) as of 44 minutes ago. 133.2 million tests were done (4.1% positive). 48.0 million were vaccinated (79.7%). +44585 cases, +168 deaths, +901450 tests since a day ago. See https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-dashboard or https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/ | 19:53 |
| LjL | 2.5% fatality is high | 19:53 |
| lastshell | damn | 19:53 |
| xx | aspirin and paracetamol, in the absense of contraindications, is the bread and butter of modern "doctors"... | 19:55 |
| LjL | well, aspirin in particular, and... *looks it up* | 19:55 |
| LjL | nimesulide | 19:55 |
| LjL | there were some doctors in italy that tried repeatedly to say on TV that in their hospital, treating patients early with aspirin or nimesulide strongly reduced the need for hospitalization/ICU | 19:56 |
| LjL | (not paracetamol) | 19:56 |
| LjL | but it seemed like the kind of thing that was getting ignored | 19:56 |
| LjL | i've never taken aspirin in my life so i'm not sure i wouldn't somehow react badly to it | 19:57 |
| ecksmas | odds are on your side | 19:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: DIY box fan air filters – Corsi-Rosenthal box - Clean Air Crew → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/rn2il0/diy_box_fan_air_filters_corsirosenthal_box_clean/ | 19:58 |
| xx | if you feel like running an experiment on your family, try getting your hands on viagra, some SSRI, ivermectin, and other stuff | 19:58 |
| ecksmas | https://i.imgflip.com/5ywrsp.jpg | 19:58 |
| xx | can't hurt if the doctors just say "take paracetamol, hospitals are full, good luck!" | 19:59 |
| dTal | I avoid ibuprofen, I'm leery of suppressing inflammation and immune response | 19:59 |
| lastshell | does she knows here vitamin d levels LjL ? | 19:59 |
| dTal | those things are there for a reason | 20:00 |
| ecksmas | my favorite is patients who have pain and then don't want to take painkillers | 20:00 |
| ecksmas | ok then keep your pain | 20:00 |
| dTal | indeed, there's some evidence that ibuprofen slows healing | 20:00 |
| xx | ecksmas: I avoided painkillers my whole life | 20:01 |
| xx | I like the pain | 20:01 |
| xx | being able to live with pain is something that builds strong willpower | 20:02 |
| ecksmas | oh yeah chronic pain is such a joy | 20:02 |
| xx | at some point the pain is just there, and you view it as an info message and ignore it | 20:03 |
| LjL | lastshell, i don't know | 20:03 |
| LjL | dTal, but in severe cases, at least i think this is still the common understanding, it's the immune system that overreacts in some ways, so yes it's there for a reason but since it's a constant arms race against viruses, it can overreact too | 20:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Dominican Rep.: +422 cases (now 412685), +5 deaths (now 4228), +5516 tests (now 2.5 million) since a day ago — Gibraltar: +60 cases (now 8014), +1427 tests (now 441023) since a day ago | 20:04 |
| xx | I asked the doctors if anything bad will happen to me if I just ignore the pain, and work/exercise/whatever with it, and they said it's not gonna make anything worse, but you might feel... pain. | 20:04 |
| xx | so I just live with it | 20:04 |
| ecksmas | i, for one, prefer not being in pain if i can solve it by taking cheap white pills every now and then | 20:05 |
| dTal | take paracetamol or aspirin | 20:05 |
| ecksmas | pretty sure aspirin has significantly more side effects than good ol ibuprofen | 20:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): My editorial in Journal of the American Medical Association: “Perhaps one of the most enduring technological innovations will be the advent of accurate diagnostic tests that can be used at home to provide a rapid answer about a person’s [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1474093706055716868 | 20:07 |
| LjL | ecksmas, they have quite different profiles... some people take aspirin daily as it's believe to help with some heart issues or whatever, but i think taking ibuprofen daily the same would not make anyone's stomach very happy | 20:08 |
| * enyc ponders a gym weightlifting session tomorrow heh ... presumably too risky omicron growing here uk | 20:08 | |
| enyc | internal room, aircon on 100% fresh air | 20:09 |
| ecksmas | yes we use aspirin in sweden for cardiovascular prophylaxis but that's 75 mg daily | 20:09 |
| ecksmas | but i'm pretty sure ibuprofen at analgesic doses is better tolerated than aspirin at analgesic doses | 20:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The link to the paper on the discovery of Paxlovid in this issue. It's the first non-repurposed drug vs #SARSCoV2 to have clinical efficacy and FDA clearance. It may be the fastest small molecule from discovery to completion of clinical trials in history science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1474096237460656174 | 20:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mato Grosso, Brazil: +3506 cases (now 935560), +269 deaths (now 23754) since 13 hours ago — Sao Tome and Principe: +4 cases (now 3741) since 21 hours ago | 20:29 |
| Arsanerit | what will come after omicron? | 20:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Emergence of within-host SARS-CoV-2 recombinant genome after coinfection by Gamma and Delta variants → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/rn3det/emergence_of_withinhost_sarscov2_recombinant/ | 20:36 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, sigma is my easy bet | 20:37 |
| LjL | maybe rho but hmm | 20:37 |
| LjL | certainly not pi | 20:37 |
| Arsanerit | rho, rho, rho your boat | 20:37 |
| LjL | gently down the cliff | 20:37 |
| Arsanerit | but I didn't mean in this way | 20:38 |
| LjL | despair? more rioting? nonsensical half-assed measures? | 20:38 |
| Arsanerit | so far it seems each new mutant is more infectious than the previous one, which would make sense evolutionary speaking to the lay person I am, but they're don't seem to be causing worse disease progressions | 20:38 |
| LjL | that's not true | 20:39 |
| LjL | *Omicron* doesn't seem to be causing worse disease progressions | 20:39 |
| LjL | everything that came before omicron was worse than the previous | 20:39 |
| Arsanerit | Was Delta causing worse disease progressions than the original variant? | 20:39 |
| LjL | Delta was estimated to cause something like 250% i don't remember whether hospitalizations or deaths compared to Alpha | 20:39 |
| LjL | yes, most definitely so | 20:39 |
| Arsanerit | Oh, I missed that. | 20:39 |
| Arsanerit | What characteristics can we expect from the next major variant of concern after Omicron? | 20:41 |
| lastshell | I hope a more less aggressive virus | 20:41 |
| Arsanerit | What will the endemic situation look like, the long term situation? | 20:42 |
| Arsanerit | Omicron has 41% lower risk of hospitalisation? according to Imperial College? | 20:44 |
| dTal | risk, or rate? They aren't the same | 20:44 |
| Arsanerit | the enwiki summary is "On 22 December, the team reported an approximately 41% (95% CI, 37–45%) lower risk of a hospitalization requiring a stay of at least 1 night compared to the Delta variant, and that the data suggest that recipients of 2 doses of the Pfizer–BioNTech, the Moderna or the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine remain substantially protected from hospitalization." sourcing Ferguson N, | 20:46 |
| Arsanerit | Ghani A, Hinsley W, Volz E (22 December 2021). Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England (Technical report). WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis. Imperial College London. doi:10.25561/93035. Report 50 | 20:46 |
| Arsanerit | The abstract also uses the term "risk". | 20:46 |
| Arsanerit | With more and more waves, and more and more people getting antibodies not only from vaccinations but also from infections, doesn't that mean that as a population overall we are getting better prepared for new waves? | 20:47 |
| dTal | my concern is that what we're actually seeing is that mild infections among previously immune people are drowning out the serious cases | 20:50 |
| dTal | but it's not actually less dangerous - it's actually just infecting more people, most of whom otherwise wouldn't be infected | 20:51 |
| Arsanerit | I don't have the domain knowledge to judge the research by Imperial College to that question. | 20:51 |
| dTal | it's certainly true that the rate of new infections is outstripping the supposed decrease in severity, so there's certainly room for this to be the case | 20:51 |
| Arsanerit | well, sure; it's going to be a problem for hospitals and services; but after that many people are sort of boostered again? | 20:52 |
| Arsanerit | the many people who will have had an infection without a (serious) disease progression will have new antibodies? | 20:52 |
| dTal | sure, it's the fabled herd immunity we've all been waiting for | 20:53 |
| dTal | also the "overwhelm the medical establishment" we've been trying to avoid | 20:53 |
| dTal | basically - it's us losing the battle | 20:53 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, it's honestly a bit mindboggling that i actually had to look for studies showing Delta is more severe because it's something i was taking so much for granted, that for a change i hadn't actually documented it in my github/zotero. but here's a study using England data finding about twice worse hospitalization https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext | 20:53 |
| dTal | it's nice that it'll happen all at once from a herd immunity standpoint, but it'll be messy | 20:54 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: thanks | 20:54 |
| dTal | also we need to be wary - Omicron proves that we cannot take immunity between variants for granted | 20:54 |
| Arsanerit | but immunity is not all or nothing? | 20:54 |
| dTal | no indeed | 20:54 |
| LjL | <dTal> but it's not actually less dangerous ← that's also what the South Africa study concluded, since they found less severity of Omicron *and* Delta (similar severity) compared to the *previous* Delta wave. so they attribute it to immunity, not intrinsic lack of severity. | 20:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Along w/ Omicron's rapid spread is a flood of first-rate research papers. Today @nature 3 reports on its immune escape, including vs most monoclonal antibodies (Abs) and work around via broad neutralizing [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1474104651876212737 | 20:55 |
| Arsanerit | Is there a straightforward way to tell whether reduced severity is intrinsic or due to immunity? | 20:56 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, i think what South Africa saw is as straightforward as it gets | 20:56 |
| Arsanerit | I am lay, but imagine this might need more data than is yet available, if straightforward at all. | 20:56 |
| LjL | you have a Delta wave, and you look at the hospitalization rate | 20:56 |
| dTal | Some sort of cohort study with antibody testing | 20:56 |
| LjL | then you have an Omicron wave, and you look at the hospitalization rate (lower) | 20:56 |
| Arsanerit | dTal: yes, which would take more time than we've had so far? | 20:56 |
| LjL | but at the same time, you also still have Delta cases, and you look at *their* hospitalization rate | 20:57 |
| LjL | and it's as low as the current Omicron! | 20:57 |
| dTal | so you only look at unvaccinated people who haven't been previously infected | 20:57 |
| dTal | Arsanerit: indeed | 20:57 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: is that true for the british study as well? | 20:57 |
| dTal | right now we need to control for a lot of unknown conflating factors | 20:57 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, i don't know, i only learned about the UK study today and i haven't read it, only the rough percentage findings | 20:57 |
| Arsanerit | I imagine it might be increasingly hard to find unvaccinated people who haven't previously been infected. | 20:57 |
| Arsanerit | and maybe a fair share of unvaccinated people might be loonies who think scientists are evil and they wouldn't want to take part in a trial (although maybe money can buy their participation) | 20:58 |
| LjL | but consider Omicron has been in South Africa for longer, so their findings may be more solid anyway | 20:58 |
| Arsanerit | maybe, but here scientists have been pointing out south african results may not be transferable due to differences in demographics and season | 20:58 |
| LjL | i agree they may not be transferable, but the UK is *starting* to show a similar trend | 20:59 |
| Arsanerit | which is why I was pleased to here there are similar results from the UK | 20:59 |
| LjL | but the reason behind that trend... once the trend is established... i don't think there's grounds to suspect it would be different between SA and the UK | 20:59 |
| LjL | although i think one of the unknowns (at least before current UK data, but i'm not sure they're enough yet), apart from the well-known "South Africa has few older people", is that the *type* of immunity most people in the UK have is different: vaccine, not prior infection | 21:00 |
| LjL | de-facto said that what makes the difference with Omicron is the T-cells and that shouldn't be different between vaccine and infection, or something | 21:00 |
| LjL | i really can't get too deep into those details | 21:01 |
| LjL | i just think that it's not established it's the same type of immunity | 21:01 |
| LjL | one thing is getting specifically a spike protein into your body and that's it. another is getting a full virus with all of its proteins and also causing disease | 21:01 |
| LjL | so it's good that the trend in the UK is starting to show it's probably being milder (even if still due to immunity), but i've been very cautious to take that for granted so far, and i still don't fully | 21:02 |
| Jigsy | Went to the store to buy something for dinner, came out with nothing - but that's a sideline - but the pub on the route was packed full with idiots not wearing masks. | 21:03 |
| Jigsy | And also a brass band... | 21:03 |
| Arsanerit | I don't even know if pubs are open or closed here and if so, under what restrictions. | 21:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: The Rise of COVID-19 Vaccines for Animals: “I worry about things like urban monkeys in populations where it could be spreading quite happily... at some stage it could come back into the human population.” → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/rn3uua/the_rise_of_covid19_vaccines_for_animals_i_worry/ | 21:05 |
| lastshell | spain and portugal are doing lockdowns | 21:05 |
| Arsanerit | but they had so many vaccinated people :/ | 21:06 |
| lastshell | china also doing some lockdowns | 21:06 |
| xx | Arsanerit: that's because being vaccinated has no effect on being able to spread it to others | 21:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Cyprus: +978 cases (now 148663), +1 deaths (now 625) since 22 hours ago — Cabo Verde: +96 cases (now 38751) since 22 hours ago | 21:07 |
| lastshell | looks like as humans we are not ready to manage pandemics | 21:07 |
| xx | and they still want to reduce the spread because with each spread the chance of a new variant increases | 21:07 |
| Arsanerit | xx: I know people still spread it even when vaccinated, but if enough people are vaccinated very few people will be hospitalised. | 21:08 |
| xx | even if 100% were vaccinated, more spread = more hospitalizations | 21:08 |
| Arsanerit | xx: Yes, but that's even true for the flu. | 21:09 |
| xx | yup | 21:09 |
| Arsanerit | including the bit about mutations | 21:09 |
| xx | we should have had the same restrictions during flu seasons for the last 30 years in europe | 21:09 |
| xx | people would have been more ready for covid | 21:09 |
| Arsanerit | interesting; that's not an argument I've seen before | 21:09 |
| Arsanerit | I've seen the comparison only being reasoned the other way. | 21:09 |
| xx | instead they are now saying "hurr durr we don't do that for the flu, so why do it for covid" | 21:10 |
| xx | if I was a dictator, there would be no more infectious diseases in the world that only have a human reservoir | 21:11 |
| Arsanerit | If 100% are vaccinated, does uncontrolled spread still lead to overwhelming the health system? Is a lockdown justified (proportionality) even if it doesn't (like for the flu)? | 21:11 |
| xx | "lockdown" is an empty word, what does it realistically mean? | 21:11 |
| Arsanerit | prohibition to leave the home | 21:11 |
| xx | well if they actually weld shut the doors, it will work. Otherwise people will just ignore it. | 21:11 |
| Arsanerit | (with exceptions) | 21:11 |
| xx | just like we've seen in the previous year | 21:11 |
| dTal | xx: I thought you were in favor of human extinction | 21:11 |
| Arsanerit | It will work, but is it a reasonably measure in relation to the achieved aims? | 21:12 |
| dTal | Arsanerit: Long Covid is an often-overlooked factor | 21:12 |
| xx | dTal: yup, and I wanna have fun until it is achieved, and part of that fun is seeing interesting population-scale experiments | 21:12 |
| Arsanerit | And how do you consider the health impacts of lockdowns, semi-lockdowns, school closures, culture closures, etc.? | 21:12 |
| dTal | Some fraction of people have their lives permanently ruined by having had covid. | 21:13 |
| Arsanerit | dTal: How well do the vaccines protect against long covid? What % of long covid people still suffer from symptoms after 18 months? | 21:13 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, even though i generally agree with the arbitrary definition of lockdown being "not being allowed to leave home except for specified reasons", in practice what Germany and other countries are doing with closing non-essential shops and the like are sometimes stricter than our "actual lockdowns" have been at times (they really haven't been the same all the time, even though "can't leave home" was always involved) | 21:13 |
| Arsanerit | dTal: "permanently" — is that actually known yet? | 21:13 |
| LjL | huge difference for instance: in our *first* 2020 lockdown, people weren't allowed to *go to work* except for workers of services deemed essential | 21:13 |
| dTal | Arsanerit: I commend this article to you https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/long-covid-chronic-fatigue-syndrome | 21:13 |
| LjL | every lockdown since that one in Italy *allowed* people to go to work, and there was never even a requirement to work from home after then | 21:14 |
| dTal | basically, to answer your question - 2-3% get permanently crippled | 21:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): But I'm glad FDA wrote "Completion of the full 5-day treatment course and continued isolation in accordance with public health recommendations are important to maximize viral clearance and minimize transmission of SARS-CoV-2." It refutes all those who [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1474110547750645769 | 21:14 |
| LjL | other countries are now not technically "locking down", yet asking people to work from home, and restricting non-essential shops. is that more or less effective than the average italian lockdown? i really don't have the answer to that, i don't think it's straightforward | 21:14 |
| Tuvix | LjL: Re: Japan, the prevailing theory is far greater mask adoption by the public, but I'm not entierly sold on that being the primary cause (certainly perhaps a contributing one though.) IIRC Japan's borders are still fairly restricted, so they may only just be seeing the beginning of omicron's uptake through their population. | 21:15 |
| dTal | we don't "know", in the strict sense, but it seems that it triggers Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, and we know how *that* works | 21:15 |
| xx | japan also doesn't shake hands | 21:15 |
| xx | or touch things and people in general | 21:15 |
| LjL | well we don't know it's permanent because we won't really "know for sure" until those people are dead and then we can say, yep, it was permanent. but there are a few inferences we can make... and it looks permanent to me in many cases. | 21:15 |
| xx | and keeps greater distance between people | 21:15 |
| Tuvix | Physical touch seems not to be a prevailing way this virus spreads though; it's almost exclusively in aerosols. | 21:15 |
| dTal | Arsanerit: and regarding vaccines - "If they were 2-3% without vaccines, the odds of developing CFS with a vaccine become ~0.2-0.75%." | 21:16 |
| xx | Tuvix: people touch their eyes | 21:16 |
| dTal | so yes, they help a LOT | 21:16 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i'm not sold at all either. but in particular look at how their cases went to practically zero after the last wave: they *were not* practically zero before, in the time between other waves. sure, their waves were small, so the background incidence in between waves was also small, but it was clearly higher than now | 21:16 |
| LjL | that's the part that puzzles me the most currently | 21:16 |
| LjL | i don't think they've only started religiously wearing masks after last summer | 21:16 |
| xx | what puzzles me is that not a single EU country requires a negative test on arrival by plane | 21:16 |
| xx | they accept vaccination status instead | 21:17 |
| LjL | also, some people expected Japan would have a terrible wave due to the Olympics, instead, the opposite happened :P | 21:17 |
| LjL | xx, we do. | 21:17 |
| xx | italy? | 21:17 |
| LjL | Italy requires a negative rapid test done within 24 hours of entering Italy, or within 48 for a PCR | 21:17 |
| lastshell | japan people also wear masks regadless of covid or not | 21:17 |
| LjL | the EU was kinda pissed off at that, but we're doing it anyway | 21:17 |
| xx | lastshell: right, so they can enter the country, and then get a test... | 21:17 |
| xx | kinda nonsensical, don't you think? | 21:17 |
| LjL | i think other countries were mentioned as also doing it but nobody caring, like Portugal, but i'm less sure about that | 21:18 |
| Arsanerit | dTal: tahnk you for the link; for me long covid was my biggest fear before I got vaccinated, but I am less worried about that now (and have a booster). | 21:18 |
| LjL | xx, no, the test must be from *before* entering the country | 21:18 |
| LjL | either within 24 before or 48 depending on type | 21:18 |
| lastshell | cd | 21:18 |
| xx | ah, looks like that's 10 days old info, I didn't know that | 21:18 |
| LjL | xx, https://www.italia.it/en/covid19 | 21:19 |
| xx | still, should have been the case for the past 2 years instead | 21:19 |
| LjL | point 3 for people within Schengen (of course it's even truer for people from outside Schengen, if they can enter at all) | 21:19 |
| LjL | yes maybe it should always have been the case | 21:19 |
| LjL | it kinda was the case when we couldn't move between regions freely | 21:19 |
| LjL | but the idea of Schengen is kind of that if you don't have movement restrictions within the country then generally speaking you don't have them at the border either | 21:20 |
| Arsanerit | 21:16:01 < dTal> Arsanerit: and regarding vaccines - "If they were 2-3% without vaccines, the odds of developing CFS with a vaccine become ~0.2-0.75%." | 21:20 |
| Arsanerit | dTal: it seems that number is not directly from peer-reviewed literature, but a projection based on certain assumptions made by Tomas Pueyo | 21:20 |
| dTal | Yes | 21:20 |
| xx | "Travellers who, on entering Italy, do not present this documentation may nevertheless enter the country but must undergo fiduciary isolation for 5 days" | 21:20 |
| xx | what does that mean? | 21:21 |
| xx | they can still enter, but are supposed to isolate, but nobody really checks? | 21:21 |
| dTal | Unfortunately it's the most comprehensive treatment of the topic I've so far found | 21:21 |
| LjL | xx, it means that you can't actually stop people from driving into the country, yes ;( | 21:21 |
| xx | probably applies to flights too | 21:21 |
| Tuvix | LjL: We were also discussiong cultural differences earlier; I just came back from dose #3, and on the way there was a billboard just before the main highway connecting cities here that read "Only 💉 by choice. Your rights matter. Your life mattters." (anti-vax billboard right as you enter the highway system.) The irony of that last line was also not lost on me :\ | 21:21 |
| dTal | Almost all literature defines Long Covid as "still symptomatic 30 days after infection" | 21:21 |
| dTal | which isn't especially useful | 21:21 |
| LjL | xx, Italy has never really done any kind of isolation/quarantine in an *enforced* fashion. you can be caught outside by police in theory and then you will be In Trouble, but the chances of that happening are very low. | 21:22 |
| xx | hence back to saying "No EU country..." | 21:22 |
| LjL | we've never had quarantine hotels | 21:22 |
| xx | UK neither I guess, since it's no longer EU | 21:22 |
| LjL | xx, a test is required. it's required the italian way. | 21:22 |
| xx | heh, the italian way | 21:22 |
| LjL | it's definitely not *not* required | 21:22 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i think whoever put on such a sign would probably be in trouble here | 21:23 |
| LjL | but the sign would likely stay up while the judicial system slowly wakes up to it | 21:23 |
| LjL | or a mayor will summarily order it removed, unless the mayor is anti-vax themselves, which is not entirely unlikely | 21:24 |
| LjL | also kind of random in a rather italian way | 21:24 |
| Tuvix | It's not a unique sign, but it was just ironic passing it on my way to get (re)-vacinated. | 21:24 |
| Tuvix | Plenty of ads like that. I wouldn't say they're super popular, but popular enough to be seen, which is the point. | 21:24 |
| Arsanerit | Why does the protection from the vaccine last for such a short time? Now they're recommending boosters already after 3 months, and Israel is doing a 4th dose. Initially I thought we're going to have to have a booster a year, which is allright, but are we going to have to have boosters 3 × per year forever? | 21:25 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i want to say they're not a thing here, but i barely go outside, so maybe i won't say that :P | 21:25 |
| Tuvix | There's exactly zero chance of it getting taken down by pollitical will here. | 21:25 |
| Tuvix | Well, besides Israel, "they" aren't yet recommending 4th doses (2nd boosters) generally. It's way too early for meaningful clinical data on that, yet. | 21:25 |
| Tuvix | Even in Israel I think it's just for healthcare workers and over-65's. (Maybe the vulnerable too?) | 21:26 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, yeah i don't think that will be sustainable. also, i HATE this, that i didn't find it again, but i'm pretty sure i had seen a study finding that vaccine neutralization (in vitro) waned *faster* for Delta than for previous variants. it stands to reason to me, it would have lasted longer with the variant it was designed for | 21:26 |
| LjL | so that's a partial answer i guess: it wanes so fast because we're using it for something it wasn't designed for | 21:26 |
| LjL | the corollary of that to me is "hurry up with the variant-specific vaccines already, dammit" | 21:26 |
| Arsanerit | But there will be new variants all the time. | 21:27 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i think he was saying "they" are recommending a *3rd* dose (booster), but after just 3 months intead of the initial 6. which is the case in Israel and i believe in the UK, at least. in Italy it's been taken down to 5 months, but basically we just can't vaccinate people fast enough to make it any lower. | 21:28 |
| Tuvix | Yea, I think I have 3 big question I'll be watching emerging data in 2022 for: 1) how does protection last from boosters, 2) what benefit do trials of varient-vaccinations show, 3) how does immunity hold up over time for the boosted. | 21:28 |
| dTal | Arsanerit: uh so I think your immune system generates, not just T-cells specific to the virus you were infected with, but also cells that are more vague | 21:29 |
| Tuvix | Oh, yea, and ≥ 3mo is being used elsewhere too. I think earlier than 3mo is just "too early" to boost since the initial antibodies haven't yet been tried as B-cells in the lymph nodes. | 21:29 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, yes, but a multivalent vaccine has the potential to tackle future variants at least to some extent. like, if we now had a vaccine for Beta, i bet(a) it would work better on Delta and maybe Omicron than what we have. 1) some mutations are in common and you tend to find them in multiple variants 2) the immune system appears to respond to seeing multiple similar-but-different antigens by broadening the response even more | 21:29 |
| dTal | if you get infected with a variant, those cells have a head start on developing the specific T-cells required to defeat the infection | 21:29 |
| LjL | and "we do" have a vaccine for Beta... as in, Moderna has it, and has been trialing it | 21:29 |
| Tuvix | s/tried/trained/ | 21:29 |
| LjL | and they still plan to release a multivalent vaccine eventually but... until governments don't explicitly ask, they probably won't | 21:30 |
| dTal | and we're relying a lot more on that mechanism for the variants | 21:30 |
| LjL | the EU has asked, i guess | 21:30 |
| LjL | but only recently | 21:30 |
| dTal | and that's also why the booster helps so much, it massively jacks up the level of those proto-cells | 21:30 |
| LjL | also look up the "universal antibodies" tag in the zotero. it's not quite the same thing, but similar general concept: if you take someone with immunity to SARS, and then you give them immunity to COVID, they'll actually develop antibodies that work against SARS, COVID, *and* all other sarbecoviruses | 21:31 |
| edcba | viruses won again imo with omicron there is no point fighting | 21:31 |
| dTal | your immune system, like everything else in your body, is "lazy" - it tries to only do the minimum work required | 21:31 |
| LjL | another study you will see with the "universal antibodies" tag says that people getting immunity to different variants of COVID develop a broad response to many coronaviruses, too | 21:31 |
| dTal | that's why the duration of your T-Cell protection is proportional to the severity of the infection | 21:32 |
| LjL | and now the US army (ugh, but) developed an actual universal sarbecovirus vaccine, way too early to pop the champagne as they're only just started phase 1, but it works on other primates apparently, and it makes sense if it's based on what i stated above | 21:32 |
| LjL | of course you can't just give people SARS to give them immunity so you must figure out a better way :P but, knowing that if they had SARS and then they get COVID (or a COVID vaccine) they develop such a universal immunity means that you "only" have to figure out which antibodies are doing it | 21:33 |
| LjL | https://www.zotero.org/groups/4391070/covid_links/tags/Universal%20antibodies/library | 21:33 |
| edcba | anyway if we succeed fighting covid with us army stuff we probably be able to get rid of flu then ? | 21:33 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: does that mean that "we can't develop a vaccine for a variant before it's there" is not the full truth but rather a bit too much simplified? | 21:33 |
| LjL | edcba, flu is an entirely unrelated virus | 21:33 |
| dTal | I know someone who had SARS - she's either completely immune, or she caught it asymptomatically | 21:33 |
| LjL | doesn't follow | 21:33 |
| dTal | to COVID | 21:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Steve Miller (@SteveMillerOC): Ontario has the best covid dashboard I have seen, and it has very good news on vaccine effectiveness against serious disease from Omicron.covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashbo… twitter.com/zchagla/status… → https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1474114400084652034 | 21:34 |
| edcba | i mean flu has a lot of variants too ? | 21:34 |
| LjL | dTal, i don't know if they also found it was more likely to be asymptomatic, but check out the SARS-related study in the above | 21:34 |
| LjL | edcba, yes but they... vary differently | 21:34 |
| dTal | flu also has animal reservoirs | 21:34 |
| dTal | we should be very careful about trying to eliminate viruses that might have animal reservoirs | 21:34 |
| LjL | dTal, so does COVID tbf ;( | 21:34 |
| dTal | if we successfully eliminate it, we lose all immunity to it - if it crosses over again, hello pandemic | 21:35 |
| edcba | damn other animals, we should kill them all | 21:35 |
| LjL | dTal, this is the study i meant https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108453 | 21:36 |
| Tuvix | Yea, Australia tried that with those foreign frogs on a micro scale; that didn't end well ;) | 21:36 |
| LjL | Denmark killed all their farmed mink... | 21:36 |
| Tuvix | And that was 1 species change. Humans are bad at tweaking nature on those kinds of levels. | 21:36 |
| Arsanerit | edcba: maybe we should stop industry farming | 21:36 |
| Arsanerit | animal density in nature is far far lower than in farms, where viruses can grow extremely rapidly; farmed animals are also much more likely to be in contact with humans than wild animals | 21:37 |
| LjL | dTal, what's the line though? smallpox doesn't exactly have animal reservoirs that we know of, but it does have relatives in animals (obviously, since they're the ones we used to develop a vaccine!) | 21:37 |
| Arsanerit | while we're at it; let's stop all animal farming. | 21:37 |
| LjL | some could be just similar enough to make the jump somewhat like COVID did | 21:37 |
| edcba | ok so the solution is we all become vegan ? | 21:37 |
| LjL | but i'd say in the meantime, it was enjoyable to not have smallpox | 21:37 |
| Arsanerit | edcba: that would certainly help to reduce the risk of zoonosis | 21:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +91430 cases (now 9.0 million), +178 deaths (now 123280) since 22 hours ago — Kenya: +3746 cases (now 274645), +1 deaths (now 5356), +11537 tests (now 3.0 million) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +122974 cases (now 11.8 million) since 22 hours ago — Canada: +26 deaths (now 30179) since 22 hours ago | 21:38 |
| LjL | edcba, i wouldn't necessarily go that far but i am being more and more in favor of restrictions on meat products. i realize that'll be a controversial opinion, it's even controversial in my head, but i suspect more and more people are starting to have such thoughts | 21:38 |
| edcba | ok we can continue eating fish, they don't get covid (i hope!) | 21:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: How Omicron Evades Natural Immunity, Vaccination, And Monoclonal Antibody Treatments → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/rn4o80/how_omicron_evades_natural_immunity_vaccination/ | 21:43 |
| Tuvix | Not sure if they randomly edit the links, but if you don't right-click copy-link on that reddit tittle at least here, it re-writes it with javascript onclick to an out.reddit.com link here :\ | 21:46 |
| xx | why don't we just give everyone SARS then? It should provide protection against covid if they survive. | 21:47 |
| Tuvix | onclick="click_thing(this)" <-- sneaky. | 21:47 |
| xx | edcba: you don't wanna know the parasitic diseases that fish get though | 21:48 |
| xx | hmm, guess we could get a side of ivermectin with every order of sushi :D | 21:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: COVID-19 infection detected in deer in 9 Ohio locations: at least three variants; evidence of six different viral introductions into those deer populations → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/rn4z4e/covid19_infection_detected_in_deer_in_9_ohio/ | 21:53 |
| LjL | Brainstorm is always topical | 21:54 |
| LjL | (Almost) | 21:54 |
| LjL | Tuvix: eh? Who's doing that? | 21:55 |
| Tuvix | LjL: Reddit, I've noticed that for a while and just always copy the link since onclick javascript won't trigger if you grab the URL that way and paste it into a new tab. | 21:55 |
| Tuvix | It's becoming a very popular way to track outbound clicks. | 21:56 |
| Tuvix | (facebook has been doing it for years for example) | 21:57 |
| LjL | Tuvix: I don't understand... The link as it is on IRC is just that link (and I link to old. as I hate the the interface) and Reddit is not involved in what happens when you click on it. Obviously it's involved later and when I'm on mobile it does strange things, but not on desktop, and not just upon clicking from IRC... | 21:57 |
| LjL | Oh | 21:58 |
| LjL | If you click on the article you mean | 21:58 |
| Tuvix | No, on desktop, and at the old link you posted, there's javascript that has an onclick which changes the URL your browser will visit. | 21:58 |
| LjL | I see | 21:58 |
| Tuvix | Yea, it doesn't take you to the URL it "looks like it should" if you hover over the link, which is the "correct" link. | 21:58 |
| Tuvix | If you click, before your browser loads the real URL, reddit sneaks in a re-write so they can send the same URL as an http param to a subdomain they control, so they'll know you clicked it. | 21:58 |
| LjL | Tuvix: I would add that browsers are somewhat complicit in allowing that. Email clients tend to warn you when that happens as it obviously tends to be done with bad intentions, but somehow not even Firefox cares | 21:59 |
| Tuvix | That's in turn just an HTTP redirect to the URL you wanted to go to, after you helped them know that you followed it. If you're logged in, presumably that's also associated with your account then too for whatever marketing value that has. | 21:59 |
| LjL | (Here I'm pretending Firefox isn't just there to pretend) | 21:59 |
| Tuvix | Yea, there are some plugins that may try to improve that, but I agree, it's something you'd figure Mozilla would have an interest in stopping. | 21:59 |
| Tuvix | TBB sometimes warns about those, but it's inconsistent. | 22:00 |
| Tuvix | (or maybe one of the TBB plugins, I haven't dug into it enough to know) | 22:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Covid, morto l'ex senatore No Vax Bartolomeo Pepe. Era stato ricoverato in terapia intensiva dopo essere risultato positivo → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_ITALIA/comments/rn5hhq/covid_morto_lex_senatore_no_vax_bartolomeo_pepe/ | 22:22 |
| aruns | I may have asked this before, but oh well | 22:23 |
| aruns | A few weeks ago, I listened to an episode of More or Less, a BBC radio programme in which Oxford trained economist Tim Harford tackles blanket statements and figures that have come up in the news, so that he can more accurately assess them and determine their veracity. And the seemingly fallacious statement he tackled was that, in the UK, at the time, supposedly the vaccinated had a higher all cause | 22:23 |
| aruns | death rate than the unvaccinated, a statement that he tackled using Simpson's paradox. | 22:23 |
| aruns | Are there any good resources, whether written or multimedia content, for brushing up on my statistics so that I can tackle blanket statements such as the one I mentioned above? | 22:23 |
| Arsanerit | they vaccinated the old and frail first so of course those are more likely to die, generally speaking | 22:30 |
| aruns | But I think the point with using Simpson's paradox is that those, at least in the UK, who were maintaining that the vaccinated were dying at a greater rate than the unvaccinated were zeroing in on specific age groups | 22:33 |
| aruns | And that the trend was reversed if you collated figures from all the age groups | 22:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +72912 cases (now 5.7 million), +82 deaths (now 89019) since a day ago — Togo: +297 cases (now 27405), +2740 tests (now 605053) since 23 hours ago — S. Sudan: +273 cases (now 14275), +2 deaths (now 135) since 19 hours ago — Aruba: +124 cases (now 17165), +1 deaths (now 181) since 23 hours ago | 22:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Florida nears COVID record with 26,000+ new cases in 1 day → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rn5qb4/florida_nears_covid_record_with_26000_new_cases/ | 22:41 |
| lastshell | cd | 22:42 |
| LjL | .. | 22:46 |
| lastshell | I have family gathering in xmas I hope I don't regret this | 22:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Cuba soars to near top of COVID vaccination charts on decades-old bet → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rn5zym/cuba_soars_to_near_top_of_covid_vaccination/ | 22:50 |
| oerheks | "... In parts of the country, entire teams of (covid) pickers and contact investigators have to leave the GGD. Labor legislation is troubling health organizations." | 22:55 |
| oerheks | https://www.telegraaf.nl/financieel/1480429715/ggd-stuurt-ondanks-boosterhaast-hele-teams-de-laan-uit | 22:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Italy bans New Year events as coronavirus cases climb to pandemic record → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rn66op/italy_bans_new_year_events_as_coronavirus_cases/ | 22:59 |
| Timvde | Hmm, our state media claims that people who are infected with omicron are 50-70% less likely to get hospitalised | 23:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ethiopia: +3793 cases (now 386164), +5 deaths (now 6885), +13147 tests (now 4.0 million) since a day ago — Curacao: +217 cases (now 18299), +2887 tests (now 373749) since 23 hours ago — Bahrain: +181 cases (now 279056), +20813 tests (now 7.9 million) since a day ago — French Guiana: +117 cases (now 47129), +1774 tests (now 480313) since a day ago | 23:05 |
| Timvde | That sounds like a lot? | 23:05 |
| Timvde | Is that the actual consensus? | 23:05 |
| LjL | Timvde, not sure we can call it a consensus, but we have a study from South Africa (which i've sort checked out) and one from the UK (which is the one you're citing, but that i haven't really checked out) | 23:07 |
| Timvde | 50-70% would be quite good, more than I would have dared to hope | 23:08 |
| LjL | Timvde, but also, i don't know about the UK one, but the SA one noted that current *Delta* cases are also as "mild" as Omicron cases, while Delta cases in the *previous* wave were more severe. so their conclusion is that Omicron is not inherently less severe, but the population is more immune | 23:08 |
| LjL | well i keep saying Delta, but they just said non-Omicron | 23:08 |
| LjL | SA also has Beta and i dunno what | 23:08 |
| LjL | i'm not really sure all non-Omicron cases are Delta | 23:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): That new data especially pertains to the 3rd shots. Here are the Moderna 2-shot data to show the issue for primary vaccination waning. All reinforcing the marked immune escape for Omicron vs Delta pic.twitter.com/cEYe0jEGPP → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1474139505649074206 | 23:09 |
| LjL | but anyway point being, in the current wave, Omicron cases are about as severe as non-Omicron ones | 23:09 |
| LjL | if the UK shows a similar trend though, which it appears to be doing, then maybe immunity from vaccines in the UK behaves similar to immunity from mostly infections in SA | 23:09 |
| Timvde | Okay, so that's not so good then :P | 23:09 |
| LjL | well... | 23:10 |
| LjL | it's better than actually having the same severity in this wave too, i guess? | 23:10 |
| LjL | but countries that are not widely vaccinated *and also* don't have widespread immunity from infection are not going to fare very well | 23:10 |
| Timvde | Sure, the current wave is also rather light because of vaccines | 23:10 |
| Timvde | Well, rather light | 23:11 |
| Timvde | Much less bad than it could've been* | 23:11 |
| LjL | i know what you mean, we've gotten used to things being pretty shit | 23:11 |
| LjL | still, i'm more scared now, personally | 23:11 |
| LjL | this time it's feeling a lot closer to me | 23:11 |
| Arsanerit | it can always be worse | 23:12 |
| LjL | my cousin is positive, i assume her family will be soon, someone else i know is positive, my sister scrambled to get tested because she met people who were positive... | 23:12 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, that's something i've learned over time that tends to be true, yes ;( | 23:12 |
| Timvde | I'm foolishly going to hope that I get through the holidays unscratched, and going back to not seeing people for a couple of weeks until the worst wave is over | 23:12 |
| Arsanerit | I mean, it could have a much higher mortality, in particular in young people. | 23:12 |
| Timvde | But omicron hasn't spread too much here yet, with the overal trend still being downwards | 23:13 |
| Arsanerit | It could cripple the majority of survivors to a much larger degree, such as polio. | 23:13 |
| LjL | Timvde, i understand people are tired and want their holidays and personally i'm not going to yell at you if you have some holidays, but... if i have to just stand here and say it, i do think it's a bit foolish | 23:13 |
| Timvde | LjL: note that we're doing much better than the UK, France or Italy currently | 23:13 |
| LjL | Timvde, Omicron was said to be at 1% on December 20 here (based on data from December 9, lolk). now it's said to be at 40% in Lombardy and if i'm not mistaken, 28% or so nationally | 23:13 |
| Timvde | again, less bad* | 23:13 |
| LjL | Timvde, fair enough, but with omicron things change *fast* | 23:14 |
| Timvde | LjL: Oh, hmm, that's less than I expected, with Italy breaking records | 23:14 |
| LjL | Timvde, Italy was already rising with presumed-Delta cases (later than Germany etc) before we even knew about Omicron | 23:14 |
| LjL | i don't know if those were actually Omicron and not Delta, but i can believe much of it is still Delta since our wave was simply delayed compared to many other EU countries | 23:15 |
| Timvde | Same here, but we're already below half of our peak | 23:15 |
| LjL | which won't be good since we're having a Delta wave superimposed on an Omicron wave superimposed on Christmas and New Year's :( | 23:15 |
| Timvde | The peak was like two weeks ago or so | 23:15 |
| LjL | Timvde, keep a close eye on the numbers and if you see your R rising, even slightly, don't believe it's not Omicron even if people/government say so | 23:17 |
| LjL | just my two cents | 23:17 |
| Arsanerit | Of course it's omicron. Is any government claiming otherwise? | 23:18 |
| Timvde | LjL: They have definitely been warning about omicron growing despite overall cases falling | 23:18 |
| Timvde | LjL: They announced stricter rules despite the downward trend | 23:18 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, "it" being what? i've said if he sees R rising. their R is not currently rising. | 23:18 |
| Arsanerit | The cause of the current or upcoming rise in cases. | 23:19 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, okay so yes, Italy's government had been claiming it wasn't Omicron (or at least implicitly assuming it since they were counting Omicron cases in the dozens) until recently | 23:19 |
| Timvde | Hmm, omicron is at 33% now, although it's also getting "easier" with delta cases decreasing | 23:19 |
| LjL | past couple of days the tune has changed | 23:19 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: sounds foolish | 23:20 |
| LjL | Timvde, 33% of around 7000-8000 is it? that would be around 300000 a day after two weeks, with an exponential growth assuming 2-day doubling time (which seems plausible from other countries), if i'm not wrong | 23:22 |
| LjL | i suspect in a country like Belgium it will actually start going down before it reaches those numbers | 23:22 |
| LjL | but... just to say how fast it can rise | 23:22 |
| Timvde | 300k per day sounds pretty absurd with 11M people, I don't think we'll get there :P | 23:22 |
| LjL | Timvde, some London boroughs were reportedly having 2% of their population as new cases every day | 23:23 |
| Timvde | That *still* wouldn't be 300k :P | 23:23 |
| Timvde | For an entire country. | 23:23 |
| LjL | it probably won't be | 23:23 |
| LjL | but it can be a lot, innit | 23:23 |
| Timvde | We'll see | 23:24 |
| Timvde | The people I'm seeing in the next week, aren't the kind of people who go around and party | 23:24 |
| Arsanerit | many offices are closed and people are done with their holiday shopping, so maybe growth rate will reduce? | 23:27 |
| Timvde | We are technically allowed to go to the office one day per week (and I did that for a while because I like going to the office), but I started WFM every day again | 23:28 |
| LjL | here, growth rate will reduce because there will be less testing, i can guarantee that much | 23:28 |
| Arsanerit | also school holidays | 23:29 |
| Timvde | aka: sending children to their grandparents | 23:29 |
| Arsanerit | where they meet a lot less people than in school | 23:30 |
| Arsanerit | and more of them are vaccinated | 23:30 |
| Arsanerit | and perhaps family visits are more likely to be by car as opposed to commuting by public transportation | 23:30 |
| LjL | as is transmission-wise the virus seems to give a damn about vaccination status :P | 23:31 |
| LjL | as if* | 23:31 |
| Arsanerit | maybe a bit? | 23:31 |
| Timvde | For delta, still a little bit! | 23:31 |
| LjL | yes for Delta still a bit | 23:31 |
| Timvde | More for people who got their booster | 23:31 |
| LjL | for Omicron i'm not holding my hopes up high | 23:31 |
| Timvde | From what I've read, still a little bit after a booster | 23:31 |
| Arsanerit | If people are wise and keep their family gatherings in small groups, then it would seem most people have less, not more, contacts during the christmas break period. | 23:31 |
| oerheks | living in an apartment building, walking my dog 5 times a day .. | 23:34 |
| Tuvix | Perhaps, but they're also likely differnet sets of contacts, which will then go back an interact with any other groups they had pre-holidays. | 23:34 |
| * Arsanerit won't have any contacts at all | 23:34 | |
| Arsanerit | I've been in the office a couple of times in the last three weeks, I was all alone. | 23:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Illinois COVID cases: IL reports 18,942 new cases, highest since pandemic began, and 78 deaths → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rn6tdz/illinois_covid_cases_il_reports_18942_new_cases/ | 23:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Trevor Bedford (@trvrb): So far London daily hospital admissions have been lower in absolute terms during this wave than the winter 2020-2021 wave, but are exceeding daily hospital admissions for the Delta wave (coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/health…). 16/17 pic.twitter.com/oXwObsn5qO → https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1474143617056849938 | 23:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: The New Year’s Eve party in Times Square is scaled back as Omicron spreads. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rn78cn/the_new_years_eve_party_in_times_square_is_scaled/ | 23:57 |
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