| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Neutralising monoclonal antibody and intravenous antiviral treatments for patients in hospital with COVID-19 infection → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rqrw0r/neutralising_monoclonal_antibody_and_intravenous/ | 00:01 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | Updates for Argentina: +33902 cases (now 5.5 million), +19 deaths (now 117085), +116618 tests (now 27.7 million) since a day ago — Colombia: +4306 cases (now 5.1 million), +35 deaths (now 129833), +57812 tests (now 29.4 million) since a day ago | 00:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): 2021.08: Wherein I used an IKEA TÄRENDÖ table to illustrate that you need multiple mitigations to effectively prevent infection by COVID19. twitter.com/michaelzlin/st… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1475964209917661186 | 00:11 |
| LjL | [22:49] Tuvix: I'm paying a bit more attention to hospital admission and healthcare stress rates than I am raw cases <- maybe a bit cherry-picked (but there are obvious reasons why I picked that), but I noticed yesterday that Italy has nominally a 9.5% prevalence vs the UK with 18.5%, so almost twice as much. But then the not says around 1 in 450 people died in both countries. So is Italy just terrible at treating people (actually kinda | 00:13 |
| LjL | plausible due to older ages and, well, the fact we had a high fatality rate from the start) or is it the UK that's good at counting cades (plausible too because I remember them doing 4 million tests in one day when we never touched 1 million)? | 00:13 |
| LjL | Perhaps a mixture of both, but in any case it doesn't speak to easy comparability of case counts across countries or even for different people in one country, even when you also try to account for positive rates | 00:14 |
| LjL | (If you *only* look at positive rates then you have higher incidence on the days with fewer tests, i.e. the opposite artifact as when you look at case counts, and I wouldn't know how to mix the two to get a reliable indicator) | 00:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: US coronavirus: The country just hit a record average of daily new Covid-19 cases → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rqsabx/us_coronavirus_the_country_just_hit_a_record/ | 00:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: NYC ER Doc Breaks Down How Omicron Affects the Boosted, Vaxxed and Unvaccinated → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rqsihp/nyc_er_doc_breaks_down_how_omicron_affects_the/ | 00:30 |
| Tuvix | LjL: Yea, that's why I think case counts or even rates of infection aren't as useful, although it's what almost every broadcast news opens with here. Thankfully there are enough other sources to display a variety of metrics that may be more meaningful. For instance, aggregate data for the entire pandemic puts the US at a lower case-fatality ratio than Italy (1.6% vs 2.4%) but notably worse per capita | 00:30 |
| Tuvix | deaths (249 vs 227 / 100k.) | 00:30 |
| Tuvix | I guess that goes to show having a slightly better (aggregate, I'm sure that's varied for both countries over the pandemic) case outcome doesn't necessarily equate to doing a better job avoiding death. That's also why I worry already stressed hospitals here are going to have a bad time dealing with any sharp rise in load here… | 00:31 |
| Tuvix | 249/100k is a quarter-precent though, and that's just confirmed cases. 1 in 400 dead, though a 73% of that was before vaccines were widely available for the public. The remaining 27% (and sadly a growing share) are now the un- or under-vaccinated. | 00:33 |
| Tuvix | confirmed deaths* | 00:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Denmark: +19306 cases (now 746769), +14 deaths (now 3245) since 9 hours ago — Burkina Faso: +592 cases (now 17632), +1 deaths (now 318) since 7 days ago — Netherlands: +9964 cases (now 3.1 million) since 19 hours ago — France: +179808 cases (now 9.4 million) since 14 hours ago | 00:35 |
| LjL | the bot would benefit from statistics much more detailed in time now. just being able to print the death rate throughout the entire pandemic was useful at first but now ones does want to know things like "what about before vaccines vs after vaccines, what about delta vs omicron" | 00:37 |
| LjL | maybe i'll redo it one day, but it would indeed take redoing it from scratch, as Timvde knows :P | 00:37 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i keep saying this South African doctor, Angelique Coetzee, the chair of their medical association, featured in the UK and Italy at least, saying left and right that omicron is just short of a godsend | 00:39 |
| Tuvix | It's hard with the varied types of reporting too, but I've been eyeing a couple of US-centric by-state breakdowns and have been meaning to do something similar for a monthly, or maybe weekly breakdown if it's not too much graph noise. | 00:39 |
| LjL | i think she says things that aren't even self-consistent, and it's a shame she's being amplified elsewhere | 00:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Pa.’s health secretary rebuked Bucks County officials over their school reopening guidance, prompting them to revise it → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rqskw9/pas_health_secretary_rebuked_bucks_county/ | 00:39 |
| LjL | Tuvix, it's not the same thing, but one thing i've added to the bot somewhat recently (re-added as it was originally part of tinwhiskers' offloop.net, a part that isn't working now) | 00:40 |
| LjL | %cases US Democratic states | 00:40 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: US Democratic states has had 26.0 million confirmed cases (15.2% of all people) and 399191 deaths (1.5% of cases; 1 in 429 people) as of 18 hours ago. 39.1 million tests were done (66.6% positive). +2 cases since a day ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US%20Democratic%20states&legacy=no | 00:40 |
| LjL | %cases US Republican states | 00:40 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: US Republican states has had 23.7 million confirmed cases (17.7% of all people) and 373778 deaths (1.6% of cases; 1 in 359 people) as of 18 hours ago. 25.6 million tests were done (92.6% positive). +2 cases since a day ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US%20Republican%20states&legacy=no | 00:40 |
| Tuvix | There's a bit of that, yea. In the US the foreign doctors don't get a lot of broadcast attention, but there's plenty of debate right now locally about various medical (and service-industry, think airline staff) opinions on the CDC's just-announced 5-day quarantine then 5-day mask guidance. Of course, that's all on the honor system, which hasn't worked since this sumer. | 00:40 |
| LjL | (i should get it to know it shouldn't print the URLs though as those URLs aren't valid) | 00:40 |
| LjL | Tuvix, dunno if the CDC is doing what NY has already been doing, but i think the 5 day quarantine *for positive people, without even a test after the 5 days* is beyond absurd | 00:41 |
| LjL | here they're thinking of shortening the quarantine too, but only for contacts | 00:41 |
| LjL | not *known positive* people | 00:41 |
| Tuvix | Right, no testing at all (I mean you can get one, but it's not a requirement.) It's all based on "self monitoring" your symptoms, and that's assuming a positive case knows they're infected at all. | 00:42 |
| LjL | also i remember, before Delta hit the US very hard, Europe was panicking as it was clear Delta would hit vaccinated people too, while from the US i just kept hearing this refrain, "99% of the deaths are in the unvaccinated" | 00:42 |
| LjL | and it might have been true at that time, and it's also true in general that they remain much more prevalent among the unvaccinated | 00:42 |
| Tuvix | The theory is longer time required to be out is a disincentive to follow the rules, but people who don't want to follow the rules aren't doing so right now. They're just "recommendations" so you can ignore them with zero cost unless your employer says otherwise. | 00:42 |
| LjL | but i was like "what? don't y'all see Europe? if you keep saying this thing, then as soon as it's no longer 99% but much lower, the anti-vax will use that against you" | 00:43 |
| LjL | one of the many examples i've seen throughout the pandemic of just not seeing beyond one's own lawn - little allotment of space and time, while ignoring things that are happening just next to it | 00:43 |
| Tuvix | Indeed, messaging has been awful, moreso the higher up the chain you go. The local helth department here has been saying the same "action needed" lines unaltered for months now: more vaccinations, more testing, and more masking in group settings required. It mostly falls on deaf ears or those who (like me) read the reports to stay informed and follow guidance. | 00:44 |
| Tuvix | I don't think anyone reads a local county health weekly summary who isn't interested in following recommendations, both for one's self and one's community. | 00:44 |
| LjL | Tuvix, has the US thought that maybe a good way to give people an incentive to follow the rules would be to pay their wage, even increase it, during quarantine, and take good care of all their needs and health issues above and beyond what you can expect if you're not a positive? :P but instead... it's almost the other way around | 00:45 |
| LjL | Tuvix, speaking of unaltered (literal) lines for months: i had to look up the quarantine rules for some of my relatives here, and i started reading this health ministry FAQ, and at first it made sense until it went like "while if you have Beta, the new Variant of Concern..." | 00:46 |
| Tuvix | For a lot of people time off means no pay. Even if there are federal programs to try to ease that, it both won't make its way into the news feeds of those who it most matters for and won't have nearly the desired impact of getting people staying home. | 00:46 |
| LjL | at which point i had a severe though nonhospitalized case of hitting the desk with my face ;( | 00:46 |
| LjL | Tuvix, well then you just send the message on public TV at every single commercial break. oh wait... did i say public TV? i forgot that's not a thing :x | 00:47 |
| LjL | but it doesn't matter, we have public TV, we've had public messaging on it at every commercial break, and it has been awful anyway | 00:47 |
| Tuvix | There are OTA channels here, and one fairly broadly accessible public TV broadcaster, but it's also limited in audiance and political view. | 00:48 |
| LjL | when they were doing the "wear your mask" routine, i kept yelling at the TV that it should also tell people to cover their nose, but somehow the TV didn't listen to my wise advice | 00:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from Eric Topol on Substack: The very bad day at the CDC: One of my favorite books this year was Michael Lewis’s The Premonition: A Pandemic Story, a page-turner in which he traced the problematic issues of the CDC long before and intra-Covid-19 and gave it a different acronym: CDOR, the Center for Disease [... want %more?] → https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-very-bad-day-at-the-cdc | 00:49 |
| Tuvix | Yup, early on in the pandemic I saw some guy in a wheelchair being helped by what I assume was a medical assistant to deal with his shopping (pull food off shelves, etc.) He has an N95 mask, pulled down below his nose and he'd move it below his mouth to speak. Just… totally worthless. | 00:49 |
| LjL | Tuvix, but still, you can (could, maybe a matter of mindset) require specific public messaging from private media too. i mean, all the TV and radio stations have to support the EAS. the E stands for "emergency" and that also seems to apply here | 00:49 |
| LjL | Tuvix, that kind of person (often old, but often enough not even very old) is very stereotypical here, sometimes i've barely kept myself from politely telling them, because i just thought... DO THEY REALIZE? | 00:50 |
| Tuvix | Sure, there's just no political will (or capital?) to do that. It's a fight just to get some of the limited measures that _have_ been put in place nationally to avoid getting overturned in various courts here. | 00:50 |
| LjL | but then i've heard of people assaulted and even killed for telling others to wear masks, so, uh | 00:50 |
| LjL | it's all quite disheartening really | 00:50 |
| Tuvix | I've quipped at a few people. Most seem to know they're breaking rules (I only mention it in businesses that have posted signs, and where I think doing so is fairly safe.) Last woman I said that to literally smirked at me, clearly pleased she annoyed someone. | 00:51 |
| LjL | after two years, italy is now mandating FFP2 masks in many indoor places, and just like two years ago... we're suddenly out of masks | 00:51 |
| LjL | two years time, we can't organize that a little better? :\ | 00:51 |
| Tuvix | Same story with testing here, especially since guidance was to get tested if you can before holiday gatherings. | 00:51 |
| Tuvix | And we wonder why suddenly at-home and reserved-space testing is a problem? Well, apparently more (though I'd argue not yet enough) of the public finally took some of the national-level guidance to heart. | 00:52 |
| LjL | yeah tests too, there was a "worldwide" shortage i think | 00:52 |
| LjL | before/around christmas | 00:52 |
| LjL | but i scarequote "worldwide" because i do suspect there are countries that have taken care of it properly | 00:52 |
| LjL | which is also disappointing because they're not my favorite models of countries | 00:53 |
| Tuvix | The other half is compliance with what happens after someone is positive. That sports club I haven't been to in over 4 months now just ignored anyone except the single positive case we'd had until then, and he only knew because testing was required for his work (where he probably caught it.) | 00:54 |
| Tuvix | We didn't even _ask_ our other staff, who had 60+ minute cummulative exposure timelines in VERY close quarters, to test. | 00:55 |
| Tuvix | I suspect that's actually quite common. After all, it's just "recommended" guidance. | 00:55 |
| Tuvix | Maybe next year we can change laws and make traffic lights a "recommendation" too; think of the time you'll save if you're late! /s | 00:56 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i'll do the Brit's job and point out that "jaywalking" is a very American concept at least compared to Britain where pedestrians are technically allowed to cross the read at any time and lights *are* legally a recommendation to them, to the point that the earlist pedestrian lights had a green light but no red light :P | 00:57 |
| aradesh | pedestrian has right of way literally by virtue of being in the road in the UK | 00:58 |
| LjL | okay i didn't need to do a Brit's job apparently! :P | 00:58 |
| aradesh | :) | 00:58 |
| LjL | there are Brits for that, who'd'a figured | 00:58 |
| aradesh | though common sense is handy if you don't want to get run over or beeped at | 00:59 |
| Tuvix | Well, I meant more for vehicles, not people. | 00:59 |
| LjL | v-vehicles are people too! | 00:59 |
| LjL | or at least the other way around, sometimes | 00:59 |
| aradesh | pretty sure the law of the road everywhere though is if there is someone in the road, and you see them, and you can stop... then you have to :P | 00:59 |
| Tuvix | Obviously that has a much more dire safety outcome, but it hits at the pandemic problem that the anti-vaxers choices affect others. At least, when they interact with the rest of society. | 00:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bolivia: +2882 cases (now 580690), +22 deaths (now 19576) since 23 hours ago — Tunisia: +670 cases (now 724092), +10 deaths (now 25548), +13162 tests (now 3.3 million) since 23 hours ago | 01:00 |
| LjL | aradesh, yes, but the difference with the UK is in Italy, the car is supposed to stop for the pedestrian but the pedestrian is still violating traffic law by jaywalking | 01:00 |
| Tuvix | I'd have no problem if they don't want to get vaccinated and can't socialize with vaccinated people who prefer not to be exposed to the risk of unvaccinated and/or unmaksed people where that was the guidance. But as a vaccinated, mask-willing person, I can't elect to do that. | 01:00 |
| LjL | aradesh, i'm afraid a majority of countries do it more like Italy than like the UK ;( | 01:00 |
| frumious | you may legally murder anyone in the US with an automobile as long as the victim is on a bicycle | 01:00 |
| aradesh | funny the people complaining about their rights being stolen when they are asked to wear a mask and such, they are happy to not have the right to drive super fast in a built up area | 01:01 |
| LjL | frumious, that may be an exaggeration but i did see a few "interesting" comments by americans on reddit on a gruesome cyclist murder event | 01:01 |
| Tuvix | I was comparing deaths per 100k pop charts over time, and Italy is still doing much, much better than either the US or the UK: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases | 01:01 |
| frumious | the laws are not on the books but I have never heard of anyone being charged for the murder out of many cases of death by car that I've heard | 01:02 |
| Tuvix | (helps to turn of the other countries unless you want all of the top-10) | 01:02 |
| Tuvix | off* | 01:02 |
| Tuvix | The US was actually doing every so slightly better than the UK, until just before October of this year. Now we're "winning" in per-capita deaths. | 01:02 |
| LjL | Tuvix, uhm "much" better? | 01:03 |
| LjL | is my bot wrong or | 01:03 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 01:03 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Italy has had 5.8 million confirmed cases (9.6% of all people) and 136955 deaths (2.4% of cases; 1 in 440 people) as of 6 hours ago. 136.7 million tests were done (4.2% positive). 48.2 million were vaccinated (79.9%). +78300 cases, +202 deaths, +1034677 tests since a day ago. See https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-dashboard or https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/ | 01:03 |
| LjL | %cases uk | 01:03 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: United Kingdom has had 12.4 million confirmed cases (18.7% of all people) and 148488 deaths (1.2% of cases; 1 in 447 people) as of 4 hours ago. 395.6 million tests were done (3.1% positive). 51.7 million were vaccinated (77.8%). +60925 cases since 23 hours ago. See https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ | 01:03 |
| LjL | %cases us | 01:03 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: United States has had 54.1 million confirmed cases (16.4% of all people) and 841875 deaths (1.6% of cases; 1 in 391 people) as of 3 minutes ago. 801.8 million tests were done (6.7% positive). 242.4 million were vaccinated (73.6%). +571998 cases, +1900 deaths since 23 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20States&legacy=no | 01:03 |
| Tuvix | 249 vs 222 per 100k capita, commulative totals of (confirmed) deaths. | 01:03 |
| LjL | 1 in 440, 1 in 447, 1 in 391... US is worse, but UK and Italy are very very close | 01:03 |
| Tuvix | That link I posted above has the chart, if you use the 2nd ("cases by date") chart but select "Deaths/100k pop." as the data plotted. | 01:03 |
| LjL | is 1/440 vs 1/440 consistent with 249 vs 222 per 100k? | 01:03 |
| aradesh | 1/440 goes to about 227 | 01:04 |
| aradesh | so similar range | 01:04 |
| Tuvix | No, 1:402 ≈ 249/100k, but 222/100k ≈ 1:450 | 01:04 |
| LjL | hmm | 01:04 |
| Tuvix | Oh, unless you meant 400 vs 440, then yes, close. | 01:04 |
| aradesh | 1 in 441, 1 in 447, 1 in 391, i'd call them countries all doing pretty similarly | 01:04 |
| LjL | Tuvix, nope, 440 (Italy) vs 447 (UK) | 01:05 |
| Tuvix | Oh, my mistake, I had Canada up and thought I was looking at Italy. | 01:05 |
| LjL | aradesh, yeah i'd say that too, but now i'm confused :P | 01:05 |
| LjL | oh | 01:05 |
| Tuvix | Yea, Italy is right in the running between the US & UK. | 01:05 |
| Tuvix | Canada has it down though :P | 01:05 |
| aradesh | what is it in canada? | 01:05 |
| LjL | i'm using the "1 in X" notation because it was suggested to me that it'd make more of an impression on people | 01:06 |
| LjL | and i think i agree | 01:06 |
| Tuvix | 80.4/100k commulative death, and it's been a very slow rise since about March of this year. | 01:06 |
| LjL | i think i'll actually make it more prominent in the bot's output | 01:06 |
| LjL | %cases canada | 01:06 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Canada has had 2.1 million confirmed cases (5.4% of all people) and 30251 deaths (1.5% of cases; 1 in 1255 people) as of an hour ago. 51.5 million tests were done (4.0% positive). 31.6 million were vaccinated (83.3%). +5 deaths since 23 hours ago. See https://resources-covid19canada.hub.arcgis.com/ | 01:06 |
| LjL | okay *that* is different | 01:06 |
| Tuvix | Yea, so Canada expressed in pandemic-total per-capita death that way is 1:1250 (rounded to the nearest 25) | 01:06 |
| LjL | you do see the bot directly says that, right? :P "1 in 1255" | 01:07 |
| aradesh | is peru really 630 deaths/100k? | 01:07 |
| LjL | yes | 01:07 |
| Tuvix | vs. 1:400 for the US, and 1:440 in Italy (okay, nearest 10 here) dead. | 01:07 |
| LjL | aradesh, i mean i'm answering automatically because i know their mortality rate is terribad | 01:07 |
| LjL | %cases peru | 01:07 |
| aradesh | then bulgaria at 436/100k | 01:07 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Peru has had 2.3 million confirmed cases (7.1% of all people) and 202550 deaths (8.9% of cases; 1 in 159 people) as of 18 hours ago. 21.6 million tests were done (10.6% positive). 24.2 million were vaccinated (75.4%). +2063 cases, +26 deaths, +25503 tests since a day ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Peru&legacy=no | 01:07 |
| aradesh | holy | 01:07 |
| LjL | aradesh, bulgaria has i think the most abysmal vaccination rate in the EU | 01:07 |
| aradesh | close behind are bosnia and hungary | 01:08 |
| aradesh | czechia is 330/100k | 01:08 |
| Tuvix | There's another really fascinating (I think) chart from JHU that plots worldwide mortality on a Deaths vs. Population chart, but includes logrithmic lines that show the per X/100k population rates too, allowing for visual comparisons: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality | 01:08 |
| LjL | i think "1 in 159 people" isn't clear, because it's next to 8.9% (which is of cases, while that's of ALL people). i've thought about how to reword it without wasting too many characters, but i think i'll just put it at the start, like "In Peru, 1 in 159 people have died of COVID. etc etc" | 01:08 |
| Tuvix | 2nd chart down, be sure to select deaths instead of case-ratio. | 01:08 |
| LjL | what do you think... i want to drive the point hoe | 01:09 |
| LjL | home | 01:09 |
| aradesh | canada is pretty good | 01:09 |
| aradesh | though they have very low population density which maybe helps? | 01:09 |
| Tuvix | That's what I've been doing. I mean, 249/100k (US current totals, poised to go above a quarter-precent anytime now) sounds less bad, I think, than 1 in 400. | 01:09 |
| Tuvix | 1 in 400 you can imagine 400 citizens lined up, and then one of them died. And then the next 400 you visualize… | 01:10 |
| LjL | yes | 01:10 |
| aradesh | it's not just the dying though | 01:10 |
| LjL | it's the same numbers but they're different to most brains i suspect | 01:10 |
| aradesh | also a good number, maybe 1 or so, of that 400 will have spent time very ill in hospital | 01:10 |
| aradesh | 10* | 01:10 |
| LjL | aradesh, well i don't have worldwide data on long COVID and other misery ;( | 01:10 |
| aradesh | decent number will have been in hospital, decent number will have long covid | 01:11 |
| aradesh | an even bigger number will have had a miserable time with it, even if not long-term or hospitalised | 01:11 |
| Tuvix | I caught some flak earlier for it, but I've mentally been tracking the 7-day average in terms of "how many hours until a twin towers scale event." Not because it's a great comparison really, but having watched that all day when it happened in school, I have a rough idea how big of a building that is and can visualize people on the foors at thier jobs. And knowing that same scale event occurs (on current | 01:12 |
| Tuvix | rates) every 50 hours is just sad. | 01:12 |
| LjL | aradesh, you're preaching to the choir, but i can't (or, won't) just come up with "eyeballed" numbers for those things in the bot, i can provide what's specifically available | 01:12 |
| Tuvix | Just the US death rate mind you. | 01:12 |
| Tuvix | Those people couldn't stop the tragety, but we mostly _can_ stop this. We just won't. | 01:13 |
| aradesh | ya | 01:13 |
| aradesh | obviously dunno the numbers, but we know they'd be a reasonable amount | 01:13 |
| aradesh | Tuvix: basically a 9/11 every day or two at the worst peaks? | 01:13 |
| aradesh | crazy | 01:14 |
| Tuvix | Right, some would still catch it and fall ill, maybe even die, especially with co-morbidities like shot immune systems, but we had that pre-pandemic with seasonal disease too. | 01:14 |
| LjL | Tuvix, sometimes people nitpick on analogies a bit gratuitously much and you just have to roll your eyes and accept | 01:14 |
| LjL | aradesh, basically that sort of number in a country the much smaller size of italy, too... | 01:14 |
| LjL | (i think, from memory) | 01:14 |
| Tuvix | aradesh: Oh, we're not even at the "worst" in the last 90 days, but yea. The math is pretty easy: check the JHU 7-day average death rate here, at about 30s into the video: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/covid-19-daily-video . Take 2996 (killed on 9/11,) divide by that video's death average, and multiply by 24 (hours.) | 01:15 |
| * LjL ponders if he should add logic to make the bot say "the" on any country name containing the words "republic", "kingdom", "united" or "union", or just not bother | 01:15 | |
| Tuvix | Today is 1452, so 2996/1452*24 ≈ 50 hours. 2996 dead every 50 hours, and expect that to (probably, we think?) go up due to holidays, gathering, stressed hosptials, and Omicron. | 01:15 |
| * LjL also ponders whether he should have another look at his Amazon list of FFP2 masks, to likely find it all sold out, likely resulting in a bit of panic | 01:17 | |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Epidemiology of COVID-19 after Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant, Brazilian Amazon, 2020–2021 → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rqtkwt/epidemiology_of_covid19_after_emergence_of/ | 01:17 |
| aradesh | more US deaths from covid than they had in ww2 | 01:17 |
| LjL | aradesh, well, that they had *in combat* ;( | 01:17 |
| LjL | oh US ignore me | 01:18 |
| Tuvix | I've also been meaning to parse out some CSVs from the CDC to see how many (mostly) avoidable deaths the US has had. Basically anything since say mid-to-end of June was past the point where anyone who wanted to find vaccinations at clinics or pharmacies could do so. | 01:18 |
| Tuvix | So far that's been about 27% of the death, but that's going to only go up since no one now can claim they don't have access to the vaccine. Some it won't help (chemo pateints are an easy example) but those also aren't a notable contribution to deaths either. | 01:19 |
| Tuvix | A study across my news feed earlier today pointed out we're already seeing the "hidden death" rates too, this one discussed higher than expected loss of life from patients on dialysis. | 01:20 |
| LjL | Tuvix, that chart is interesting but if you want to spot individual countries it's tiresome. it could use, i dunno, a full-screen view with a few country names without needing to hover, or not sure how else | 01:21 |
| Tuvix | Oh, yea, it's less useful for an A/B country comparison and spotting outliers or clusters of similar-performing countries, especially if you also wanted similar populations grouped together. | 01:21 |
| LjL | Tuvix, it's hard to compute how many deaths are "avoidable" when the vaccine doesn't provide complete protection *and* its degree of protection is inconsistent among variants *and* we start doing more and more booster shots | 01:22 |
| Tuvix | Yea, I wonder if either of the data-sets I looked at note vaccination status on the death totals to allow some measure of comparison. I know that data gets crunched for some of the doctors on national programs here, but it'd be nice to break that down by say state and then again over time. | 01:23 |
| LjL | i'm not entirely sure why the *world* isn't agreeing on publishing case and death data by vaccination status | 01:24 |
| LjL | that would make an impression on people more than handwaving around some random local data | 01:24 |
| LjL | at least it would make one on me | 01:24 |
| Tuvix | I might have a screenshot of similar charts shown on (some) news media here. | 01:24 |
| Tuvix | I think the unvaccinated at this point just don't care. | 01:25 |
| LjL | i know where to find something like that for Italy too, but it's all very place-specific | 01:25 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i don't know, i do see people including in this channel who i think could potentially be swayed by compelling data | 01:26 |
| LjL | maybe i'm wrong, but why not at least try? worst case, you get interesting data for *me* :P | 01:26 |
| Tuvix | I mean, the death from unvaccinated is basically an almost-flat line that ticked up a _tiny_ bit during Delta. Unvaccinated death spikes wildly last winter, again during Delta's summer-surge here, and again now. | 01:26 |
| LjL | ("you" as in the world) | 01:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Steve Miller (@SteveMillerOC): It’s the vaccines, stupid.On a relative basis, London and New York City hospitalizations are well ABOVE what was seen in prior covid waves after a majority of the population was vaccinated.If you are unvaccinated, you are at MORE risk than during [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1475985937079230464 | 01:26 |
| Tuvix | So, yea, delta/omicron aren't at all "good" for the vaccinated/boosted, but it's a LOT worse for the unvacinated. 20x worse. | 01:26 |
| Tuvix | Thanks for helping the discussion, Steve & Brainstorm ;) | 01:27 |
| LjL | Tuvix, at some point i remember, in the UK one death out of *three* was among vaccinated people. and it was always hard to explain to people the now-tried "if 100% of the population were vaccinated, then 100% of the deaths would be among vaccinated" | 01:27 |
| LjL | heh | 01:27 |
| Tuvix | True, but almost NO country is anywhere close to that being a real statistical problem. By the time we get there, we can just declare success I guess. | 01:28 |
| LjL | Tuvix, here's a chart i find interesting that was not what was i expected when i originally found it upon clicking on "tests" https://covidly.com/graph?country=United%20States&state=#tests | 01:28 |
| Tuvix | Then it basically becomes like Measles or something, which sees pockets out outbreaks in the 1st world, but not often, and not widespread. | 01:28 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i'd say the UK having 1 deaths out of 3 being in the vaccinated at that point counts as a "real statistical problem"... | 01:28 |
| LjL | it was specific to a period of some weeks, not over the length of the pandemic of course, but still | 01:29 |
| LjL | (it's still not a real statistical problem, just hard to explain to people who instead think "vaccine = deaths") | 01:29 |
| Tuvix | Yea, that's the other rub with time-varied series; if your data is too bursty for whatever reason, going too short in time leads to pretty worthless data points. | 01:30 |
| Tuvix | Depending on how accurately it's reported, sometimes a 2-week or even month-long summation and/or averaging works out to be a lot more useful, if not delayed way to observe big spikes. | 01:30 |
| LjL | it wasn't just a random bursty data point though, it was the combination of a (for then) highly-vaccinated population, and Delta | 01:31 |
| Tuvix | Hmm, I don't have many screencaps of this since it's showing data I "alrady knew" but here's a chart for the US of death-incidence in vax'd vs. unvax'd on a national cable network: https://imgur.com/iuTf4ji | 01:32 |
| Tuvix | So, pre-booster (For the non-compromised that is) and pre-omicron, but still a shocking look at how delta effected both groups in terms of mortality. | 01:33 |
| Tuvix | Looking at your earli link, how do countries end up with more cases than tests? Or maybe some tests done in hospitals aren't counted, or cases are attributed without a clinical test? | 01:35 |
| Tuvix | earlier* | 01:35 |
| LjL | Tuvix, ah, i was thinking, "that graph looks different in Italy", it took me a while but i know, the graph i have in mind for Italy is of *cases*, not deaths, https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_21 | 01:36 |
| LjL | actually i need to take a break because i focus too much on this stuff and suddenly i feel a bit physically sick :\ | 01:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Australia: +17296 cases (now 338201), +8 deaths (now 2210) since 22 hours ago — Angola: +5035 cases (now 76787), +7 deaths (now 1756), +17226 tests (now 1.3 million) since 2 days ago — Reunion: +4807 cases (now 76602), +8 deaths (now 409) since 6 days ago — Costa Rica: +1696 cases (now 570556), +10 deaths (now 7353), +53931 tests (now 3.0 million) since 6 days ago | 01:37 |
| LjL | Tuvix, they don't end up with more cases than tests. the diagonal line is at 0.10 ratio, it shows if you hover | 01:37 |
| LjL | an arbitrary value i guess | 01:37 |
| yeastinfectious | I died of covid twice, and I still caugh, maybe because I smoke | 01:38 |
| LjL | but i remember at some point it was said (by the WHO?) that the positive rate should be below 3%, and at some other point 1%, to be assured "you're testing enough" | 01:38 |
| * LjL caughs | 01:38 | |
| LjL | Tuvix, uhm nevermind you're right, there are countries with more cases than tests... | 01:39 |
| Tuvix | Heh, well over 10% many places here, but we're obviously not testing enough. | 01:39 |
| LjL | such logarithm | 01:39 |
| LjL | we've passed 10% now too ;( | 01:39 |
| yeastinfectious | in France they are saying that people got very tested for Christmas and so part of the increase is due to that | 01:40 |
| Tuvix | Yea, I dunno what exactly feeds that chart, but presumably by reporting or aggregation there's a problem somewhere. Anyway, don't stress too much. The data is interesting, but I doo put even interesting interviews or podcasts on pause if I'm feeling too busy to deal with it. | 01:40 |
| Tuvix | I too* | 01:40 |
| LjL | %tell de-facto Pay attention if you look at testing data from Covidly as some countries "have" more cases than they have tests https://covidly.com/graph?country=United%20States&state=#tests such as Thailand, Tanzania or Seychelles | 01:41 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass de-facto your message when they are around. | 01:41 |
| LjL | %cases tanzania | 01:41 |
| Tuvix | yeastinfectious: Yup, that was the messaging here, and while many gatherings I'm sure ignored that advice, there was a HUGE push to get tests, especially the off-the-shelf take-home kits. | 01:41 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Tanzania has had 26483 confirmed cases (0.0% of all people) and 734 deaths (2.8% of cases; 1 in 76145 people) as of 13 days ago. 1.6 million were vaccinated (2.9%). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Tanzania&legacy=no | 01:41 |
| LjL | yeastinfectious, you can always look at the positive ratio (number of positives / numbers of tests) to know if the increase is due to more testing, or to more actual prevalence | 01:42 |
| LjL | at least if the testing data is published reliably... | 01:42 |
| yeastinfectious | Tuvix yes but well, what can we do? | 01:42 |
| LjL | cancel christmas, for one thing | 01:42 |
| LjL | so to speak | 01:42 |
| Tuvix | If tests are hard to get? If possible schedule one, but yea, I'd seriously re-consider "risky" gatherings with people outside your normal living (or any required in-person work) conditions you have. | 01:43 |
| yeastinfectious | cancel christmas sounds like the mother of all wokes lololol sorry | 01:43 |
| yeastinfectious | that was a joke | 01:43 |
| Tuvix | Any gathering adds risk because you can't really be 100% sure someone isn't infected before (or who may never) show signs. A test right before can help, and if every does that _and_ is vaccinated (and where applies, boosted) you can have some higher assurance. | 01:44 |
| yeastinfectious | Do people account the negative impacts of this measures that are taken? | 01:44 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i'm not (entirely) going to tell others how to live their lives, but my cousin has COVID, her father (at risk) also got it, her mother didn't yet (but she already had it in 2020!), and we only knew about this a couple of days before christmas. had their symptoms appeared a couple of days later, and had we done christmas the way we usually do, there would likely be some 10 people with COVID now in a single extended family, as opposed to 2 | 01:44 |
| Tuvix | One of the doctors who has a lot of practical advice was suggesting for folks still doing gatherings here in the US that you do "2 out of 3" between A) vaccinated+boosted, B) masking at all times indoors, and C) pre-gathering testing. | 01:44 |
| yeastinfectious | Like, when do we bring the average in | 01:44 |
| LjL | Tuvix, it's not at all guaranteed that a rapid test will return positive if you don't have symptoms yet, though, it can change in a matter of hours, and christmas gathering usually last for some hours | 01:45 |
| Tuvix | yeastinfectious: Of what, limiting gathering size? If it's a party, is that _really_ necessary? And worth the outbreaks that inevitably cause death as a result? For example, airlines are not continuing to fly with staff out sick, because that puts their customers (and their staff) at risk. Should they have flown anyway? | 01:45 |
| yeastinfectious | I only have 1 relative dead of covid and he had cancer of the lung. It accelarated his fatal ending. and he accounted to this nonsense | 01:45 |
| LjL | (even assuming positive to the rapid test = infectious, which is something some people posit, i've never seen solid evidence for that) | 01:45 |
| * LjL is a little speechless right now and will probably take that break he said | 01:46 | |
| yeastinfectious | Tuvix: Inflation is at 5% rate now. Tax the rich is you wish, but maybe also payyour debt | 01:47 |
| yeastinfectious | 5% yearly over few years is pretty bad | 01:47 |
| Trippy72894 | update please on if this new omicron could burn through hosts fast and start the end of this pandemic into endemic? | 01:47 |
| Tuvix | Okay, you've bringing so many unrelated points together that you're either here to troll or uninformed to the point I don't have time to debunk or detangle this mess. | 01:47 |
| yeastinfectious | but you can afford, because health | 01:47 |
| Trippy72894 | or might it go from one place to another then back again? | 01:47 |
| yeastinfectious | well, paralyzing economy and stopping production PLUS printing huge amounts of money results in inflation, this is not a troll idea | 01:48 |
| yeastinfectious | it may debatable, but not troll | 01:48 |
| LjL | yeastinfectious, inflation was higher in France during the 2008 crisis than it is registered as being now https://tradingeconomics.com/france/inflation-cpi | 01:49 |
| LjL | that was "just" a stupid financial crisis caused by playing with finance | 01:49 |
| LjL | this time we have a friggin' pandemic | 01:49 |
| LjL | i think i know which of the two i find inflation more justified in | 01:50 |
| Tuvix | Trippy72894: Short answer: we really don't know. We're seeing re-infection of those from delta (and prior) varients, so prior-infection does not confir immunity against omicron. Vaccination (and boosting) apperas to help, but it's slightly less effective than against earlier strains, yet still a VERY important tool, as boosted are still something like 70% protected against symptomatic infection, and well | 01:50 |
| Tuvix | over 90% protection against death vs. the unvaccinated. | 01:50 |
| xrogaan | The whole point in taking measures is to limit the amount of people that end up in the hospitals. That's it. It's not to keep people healthy, 'cause we know they'll get sick, but to keep our health care system from crumbling. | 01:50 |
| yeastinfectious | did you see the graphic? | 01:50 |
| LjL | Trippy72894, it's really hard to answer that at this point. Omicron had a lot of mutations compared to what we know... something else may come with even more mutations, and different enough it evades our defenses (consider COVID is also in many animals that live close to humans now). people are studying this stuff but it's tricky | 01:51 |
| yeastinfectious | LLjL how is 2008 higher than now in your graph? | 01:51 |
| xrogaan | Problem is that the healthcare system of many countries is now worse than it was a year ago. Mostly due to lack of personal. | 01:51 |
| Trippy72894 | ljl thanks | 01:51 |
| Tuvix | We could even see protection from omicron and/or vaccines wane again and the same, or very similar varient come back, kind of like the flu does. COVID is just killing and hospitalizing a LOT more people annually than the seasonal flu, and it's stressing hospitals in many places to the point that even non-covid patients are getting less quality of care, or sometimes none at all. | 01:52 |
| LjL | Tuvix, that was one of the things i found inconsistent in the reasoning in Angelique Coetzee's (that SA doctor) interview to the Daily Mail: she made two claims, 1) people who had been infected by Delta were being re-infected by Omicron, and 2) Omicron could be a good thing because it will give us all immunity (my words, paraphrasing) | 01:52 |
| LjL | i'm sure you can see the slight contradiction there | 01:52 |
| Tuvix | It may eventually become similarlly endemic, but we're not really even close to that being a reality yet. Maybe in a year, if we're lucky? If we're unlukcy or manage this badly, perhaps longer. | 01:52 |
| LjL | yeastinfectious, it's not "my" graph. it's a graph from a third-party site | 01:53 |
| yeastinfectious | LjL: How can you lie like that? what is the reciepe? | 01:53 |
| LjL | it currently gives it at 3%, maybe 5% is a projection | 01:53 |
| xrogaan | thanks you. | 01:53 |
| LjL | welcome | 01:53 |
| LjL | i didn't think they were trolling, and i also usually try to avoid being oppy over personal things, but... this wasn't even personal, they just suddenly/randomly accused of lying out of the blue ;( | 01:54 |
| xrogaan | Tuvix: I think our current predicament requires endurance, and to find a new way to live. | 01:54 |
| LjL | didn't originally* think | 01:54 |
| LjL | xrogaan, good thing resilience had become a fashionable word already a bit before the pandemic | 01:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): 'Denialists are usually not deterred by the extreme isolation of their theories, but rather see it as the indication of their intellectual courage against the dominant orthodoxy and the accompanying political correctness, often comparing themselves to Galileo." → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1475989357429501952 | 01:55 |
| LjL | Brainstorm, them maybe after yeastinfectious rejoins we can see if he compares himself to Galileo | 01:55 |
| xrogaan | "I'm correct because I'm wrong." | 01:55 |
| LjL | "(also it's the sun that's moving)" | 01:56 |
| Tuvix | I mean, it *is* moving, just not quite like that ;) | 01:56 |
| LjL | i knew it :P | 01:56 |
| LjL | Tuvix, now i'm going to ask in respect to what it is moving, and then what *that* is moving in respect of, and then... | 01:57 |
| Tuvix | The irony with the really crazy theories (about anything, notwithstanding the pandemic) is that if we had done nothing, and pretended this wasn't a big deal, _that_ would be the conspiracy. And it would of course, but the same group would likely be just as vocal about it in addition to all the rightfully concerned non-crackpots. | 01:58 |
| LjL | until it gets to the gravitational reference frame of the universe or something, and i call myself out of the discussion | 01:58 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i think that's not just an irony to mull on, but also a big tragedy of how democracies have been dealing with this unfortunately | 01:58 |
| Tuvix | Just define the center of the universe as whever the man and/or remains are of Neil deGrasse Tyson. | 01:58 |
| LjL | if a government underreacts, it can overreact a bit later: it will be pretty terrible overall, but it'll look like it has saved the day | 01:59 |
| LjL | conversely, if a government reacts appropriately, it will always seem as to have overreacted, because "nothing will happen" | 01:59 |
| LjL | which was the goal. but. | 01:59 |
| LjL | "nothing has happened, they locked us down for nothing" | 01:59 |
| LjL | so they don't do that, they lock people down when it's already a bit too late (i.e. already a bit visibly late) | 01:59 |
| Tuvix | Right, nothing "happens" but at the cost of implementing that nothing. Same with any supporting job; those on the ISS get all the glory, but if not for the 1000's in control rooms supprting it, none of it's possible. | 02:00 |
| minthos | ASI dictatorship please | 02:00 |
| LjL | minthos, you used this ASI term before and i was ashamed to say i had no idea what you meant ;( | 02:00 |
| LjL | anyway i'm not advocating for a dictatorship | 02:00 |
| minthos | artificial superintelligence | 02:00 |
| Tuvix | I mean, China had great effect at controlling early outbreaks. Of course, they did so with the military and at gunpoint, but it was still effective. The rest of the world can't / won't live like that. | 02:00 |
| LjL | but i can't help seeing this seemingly intrinsic issue with how democracies work, right now | 02:00 |
| Tuvix | I'd rather live in a more balanced world, even it means some things are nto as efficient. | 02:01 |
| Tuvix | But yes, maybe a _bit_ more efficiency and eye on the end goal could help. This is also why I'm not in charge :P | 02:01 |
| LjL | minthos, oh let me introduce you to Mr Spec_, who is not actually Mr Spec, you may have things in common | 02:01 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i'm also not exactly for doing "whatever it takes", if what it takes is holding people at gunpoint etc (but let me note that Dutch police actually shot people during an anti-lockdown riot, and that's *Dutch* police, not Chinese) | 02:02 |
| minthos | actually I think the optimal government is probably one where a consortium of ASIs poll humans about their preferences and try to take those into account but can override human stupidity when necessary | 02:02 |
| Tuvix | minthos: Mildly relevant: https://xkcd.com/1626 | 02:03 |
| LjL | Tuvix, but i think there is some difference between the idea of doing things *authoritatively*, and simply recognizing that if a democratic government "overreacts" (i.e. reacts appropriately, but in the minds of people, overreacts), it will lose support. the difference being: people aren't necessarily upset because the government "acted violently", they're upset because they think the government acted in excess of what was required - namely nothing, since nothing | 02:03 |
| LjL | happened | 02:03 |
| LjL | i am too verbose and too many of my messages are maxing out an IRC line lately ;8 | 02:04 |
| LjL | not sure if it's clear what i'm saying | 02:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: John Hess MD (@DrJohnHhess): @SteveMillerOC TRUTH. Even if intrinsic severity is 10-30% less than Delta due to the sheer number of infections the likelihood of being infected is higher (vax or not). The vaccinated are disproportionately lowering case to hospitalization rate. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/DrJohnHhess/status/1475993749964607493 | 02:04 |
| Tuvix | Oh sure, that's exactly why we're seeing a bit of a trend to right-wing populists in US congress right now; that was a pre-pandemic concern among some who felt the same, but it's been made worse (in my opinion) with both the pandemic and the former administration. | 02:05 |
| LjL | a hypothetical democracy that reacts appropriately doesn't lose support *necessarily* because it seems to have been authoritarian, but merely because it seems to have way overreacted, and sacrificed economy or whatnot to defend against something that did not take place | 02:05 |
| Tuvix | The problem is it's not just traditional politics but a new brand of ignoring science because it's either unpopular or inconvenient. | 02:05 |
| LjL | i don't know | 02:05 |
| LjL | i think the paradox is kind of intrinsic and you couldn't educate the electorate with science even in a more "sciency" period | 02:05 |
| LjL | i'm sure there's a bias name for this | 02:06 |
| LjL | but i never remember bias names | 02:06 |
| minthos | I wish manufactured consent would be used to manufacture consent for good things like better education for everyone instead of whatever crap it's being used for now | 02:06 |
| LjL | if i prevent something, it doesn't happen, so the electorate will say "what did you do that for? nothing happened! i'll vote the other guy next!" | 02:06 |
| LjL | when i say it like this the paradox seems obvious but it's not obvious to the actual electorate when things are more complicated than the simple version of the paradox | 02:07 |
| Tuvix | Measuring results is hard, but thowing mud on your opponent is comparatively easy, sure. | 02:07 |
| LjL | paradox isn't even the right word but whatever | 02:07 |
| LjL | Tuvix, oh i didn't even taken into account that the opponent will invariably capitalize on that | 02:08 |
| LjL | i mean, knowingly so | 02:08 |
| Tuvix | I think that right there is maybe 30% or so of our CDC's problem. It's not that they're wrong so much as they're giving best-guesses which, when they turn out to be revised, are viewed as "wrong" in retrospect. | 02:08 |
| minthos | lockdowns would have been more acceptable to people if they'd been short, effective, and combined with enough UBI to cover reasonable living expenses | 02:08 |
| minthos | but it seems people just want to get sick and complain about the government interfering in their lives | 02:09 |
| LjL | and look at Italy, right now almost *every* party is part of the government, except for Fratelli d'Italia which is the most far-right party (arguably... League is worse sometimes), and *because* they're in the opposition, they're gaining a *lot* of consent. latest polls i saw gave them at 20.5%, tied with the Democratic Party also at 20.5%, both being the top parties | 02:09 |
| Tuvix | minthos: Even that's only a mitigation at best, and I'd argue all that, even if implemented properly, woudln't have matterd with delta and now omicron without vaccination. | 02:10 |
| minthos | if it had been done early and coordinated globally it would have stopped the virus completely | 02:10 |
| minthos | of course that's a pipe dream | 02:10 |
| Tuvix | When it comes time for our planet to defend itself on a potential inter-stellar stage we don't need to worry about invasion from the sky; it'll be a new virus that wipes us out :\ | 02:11 |
| minthos | yes | 02:11 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i kinda disagree about the CDC, i think... maybe i'm sometimes confusing it with the WHO (but it definitely has a big *say* in the WHO, at least), but i think the WHO and the CDC have given asinine advice on a few occasions and i was already yelling at their advice at the time, not just retrospectively. can't remember many specific items on demand but i always go back to "don't wear masks, masks bad" which may be a bit too far back by now | 02:12 |
| minthos | governance is our existential risk | 02:12 |
| Tuvix | LjL: Oh, yea, you're right, early on that was the CDC's stance, though IIRC WHO was must earlier at pushing for masking than CDC was domestically here. The "concern" was 2-fold: 1) not to reduce supply of N95 for healthcare workers, and 2) that people wouldn't use them properly and would gain a false sense of security. | 02:13 |
| Tuvix | Of course, had we put out messaging to address both, we could have seen a bigger mask uptake early. | 02:13 |
| Tuvix | As it stands, the vax-averse crowd often overlaps with the anti-mask crowd too. I'm not sure how much of that could have been swayed, but more than zero I bet. | 02:13 |
| minthos | "it's not airborne" "don't wear masks" "wash hands" and complete silence about ventilation | 02:14 |
| LjL | Tuvix, and i think from your use of scarequotes around "concern", i don't have to tell you why i think it was an asinine choice. yes, you address the concern, you don't sidestep the concern. anyway, the CDC also advised that vaccinated people could stop wearing masks, while Delta was looming, and then if you recall those "secret" meeting slides came out where they had determined that they should reverse their advice | 02:14 |
| LjL | Tuvix, am i just seeing it unfairly retrospectively, as in, they reversed their advice because they had new information? i don't know, it seems to me to be similar to that reiterated bad communication i saw in the US while Delta was already "a thing" in Europe. surely the CDC could look at Europe too | 02:15 |
| Tuvix | heh, scarequotes, yea. I mean, it was largely discussed as reasoning for the CDC's choice by experts, but I agree, it was poor information and as we later learned how almost excluslively airborne it was, turned out to be horribly bad advice and set the stage for people to ignore the complete change on advice. | 02:16 |
| LjL | oh yes, minthos is right, "it's not airborne" is still a thing, it never dies | 02:16 |
| LjL | ("wash hands" is okay with me, it may not help much *against covid*, but it's hard to go wrong with that :P) | 02:16 |
| minthos | yes it's not bad advice to wash hands but when that's the only preventive measure it's very very bad | 02:16 |
| Tuvix | But the CDC's been doing that many times now. Same story on protection from vaccinations, from "you're almost entierly protected" to "turns out you're not so please mask up again." Or same with boosters, which until just a month or so before they were approved, CDC and White House staff kept saying that it wasn't looking necessary. Then suddenly it was allowed, and then a few weeks later recommended. | 02:17 |
| LjL | Tuvix, you mean as *you* later learned how "almost exclusively airborne" it was, because i assure you there are still a lot of people (some with the best intentions, just not following closely) that if you tell them it's airborne, they'll say, "what?! no, it's just the droplets!" and that reflected the opinion of WHO, CDC and friendly, and still partly does, they slooooowly started saying "okay, in SOME circumstances it may be airborne" | 02:17 |
| LjL | speaking of whether some preventative measure is useful or not | 02:18 |
| LjL | have you seen scenes of China spraying "stuff" in the streets in that city that's locked down again? | 02:18 |
| LjL | i've been befuddled by what exactly they're doing (and South Korea and a very few other places also seemed to be doing it) since the start of the pandemic. if they're *still* doing, maybe it's something useful and we should learn what exactly it is and do it too? | 02:19 |
| Tuvix | I'd seen photos of that in India too in what looked like an indoor mall (thought may have been partly outdoor, a bit hard to tell from the brief photo shot) | 02:19 |
| LjL | is it water, is it disinfectant, is it... what, and why do they think it helps | 02:19 |
| Tuvix | I'm not sure if it's to clean surfaces which as I understand isn't really an even-minor way this spreads, or if the theory is it's somethning in the air? | 02:20 |
| minthos | this is the kind of stuff I mean when I say science advances one funeral at a time. the old ingrown dogmatists who rule CDC/WHO are so resistant to science that the only solution is for them to die and be replaced by younger more open-minded people, along with anyone who has taken their advice as gospel and refuses to believe evidence | 02:20 |
| LjL | i think there's a pretty painful disconnect between China (and maybe some other countries) and "the west". i'm not saying we should react the way they do, but it would be nice if we exchanged some basic information on what it is that we're doing, and why | 02:20 |
| Tuvix | But if you're, um, cleaning the "air" I don't see how you'd kill the virus without also having serious health effects for humans at the concentrations required. | 02:20 |
| LjL | Tuvix, yeah, a few people have told me "it's to clean the surfaces" when i've asked this question before (including many months ago). but do people literally lick sidewalks, in the midst of a pandemic at that? (i was paranoid enough for a while that i sprayed my shoe soles with alcohol after coming home, though, and it's not even like i normally wear shoes at home) | 02:21 |
| Tuvix | minthos: I think the bigger issue is they've been largley reactive this entier time. I could sort of see the prior administration making life hard, but that's not an excuse for anything that's come for 10 months now. | 02:21 |
| Tuvix | You can't fix a pandemic by waiting until this are really bad and then finally admitting that they're bad. Yes, we know, but what is the leading health agency in the country *doing* about it? | 02:22 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i don't know, it could just be water and in high enough concentration, it could abate any virus in the air, much like rain is often said to (at least i've heard it often from multiple people who seemed to have a clue about aerosols!) | 02:22 |
| minthos | they've been unreactive, passive | 02:22 |
| Tuvix | until things* | 02:22 |
| minthos | stonewalling | 02:22 |
| squirrel | say are UK rapid antigen tests from months ago still good for omicron? | 02:22 |
| LjL | Tuvix, the prior US administration is not an excuse simply because this reactiveness has been a problem *worldwide*, or at least "westwide", or "democracywide", or however we want to call it, not unique to the US at all, although the US took it to some extremes as usual | 02:23 |
| Tuvix | Well, this virus, like others, is "hydrophobic" which means that with water (and really soap if you're talking hand-washing) it effectively breaks down the surface of the virus. | 02:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam): New Covid hospital admissions in NYC spike twitter.com/GANyborg/statu… → https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1475998418837331969 | 02:23 |
| LjL | squirrel, i don't know if they're still good due to being "from months ago", but Omicron per se shouldn't impact them, is what i understand | 02:23 |
| squirrel | aha thanks | 02:24 |
| LjL | it may not be the same for *all* tests i guess, but i think most of the mutations are not on the N-protein which is what rapid tests tend to look at | 02:24 |
| LjL | but maybe get a second opinion :) | 02:24 |
| squirrel | i guess i just got a bad cold then \o/ | 02:24 |
| LjL | squirrel, not necessarily, rapid tests are not very sensitive *in general*, regardless of omicron vs not | 02:24 |
| LjL | i think, off the top of my head, i remember reading they have some 60% positive rate compared to PCR tests | 02:25 |
| squirrel | well, someone else from the household who also got the same symptoms got a negative PCR test | 02:25 |
| LjL | Tuvix, it's hydrophobic that way but while soap actually causes the water to get inside of the virus, simple drops may carry the virus (hence the whole droplet concept). so you need, like, *a lot* of water, while just having say very high humidity may make it *worse* | 02:26 |
| LjL | squirrel, just test again in a day or two | 02:26 |
| LjL | this is just me, but i would personally not rush to get a PCR test if i can get a rapid test and it's negative... not because it means i'm definitely negative (at all), but because if whatever i have isn't COVID, the best way to *catch* COVID is to be in a queue full of people waiting to be tested for COVID | 02:27 |
| Tuvix | Oh sure, I meant more that I'm a lot less worried about touch than I was before we knew it was almost entierly aerosols spreading this. I briefly had 3 pairs of re-usable gloves I'd use for shopping and then not touch for 72 hours minimum. I stopped that completely when they announced it was a non-issue and just washed carefully coming home and used sanitizer before/after dealing with my mask. | 02:27 |
| LjL | ymmv in case you have drive-through centers or things like that where people aren't actually queuing indoors waiting for a test | 02:27 |
| minthos | I would guess high humidity makes filtering easier and lets droplets stay bigger longer so they fall to the ground faster | 02:28 |
| Tuvix | Yea, I was quite annoyed when I got my flu & COVID booster jab on separate days earlier this month and about 70% - 80% of the customers in the pharmacy / general-store were unmasked | 02:28 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i'm still not convinced it's entirely a non-issue because i've seen too many entities change their minds based on... not much. but yeah i've also definitely gotten a lot less paranoid about touch, if nothing else because it was really a bit panic-inducing to start thinking "okay i've touched this and then i'm touching that before washing my hands so i must wash this and that and also aaaah" | 02:28 |
| Tuvix | I had my high-quality mask on, but still, not great standing in lines. | 02:28 |
| minthos | low humidity/high temperature should make aerosols evaporate faster, leaving just the tiny virus particles suspended in air and harder to filter out | 02:29 |
| LjL | Tuvix, today someone was at the pharmacy with a surgical masks, to buy an FFP2 mask, in order to go to the vaccine center :P | 02:29 |
| LjL | minthos, yes that's part of the theory around seasonality also | 02:29 |
| Tuvix | I mean, maybe that's the right order of operations if the pharmacy wait for better masks isn't too bad? :P | 02:30 |
| LjL | although i've always been a little unconvinced about this virus having such a pronounced seasonality | 02:30 |
| Tuvix | Delta's wave here in the US was mid-summer. | 02:30 |
| minthos | yes I think the effect is too small to make a big difference compared to people's behavior | 02:30 |
| LjL | Tuvix, yeah i'm just saying, the person was there to "upgrade" their mask, they couldn't have *gotten into* the pharmacy without a surgical or at least a cotton mask in the first place :P the UK and the US seem to be... quite different in that respect | 02:30 |
| minthos | congregate in large groups and/or indoors with poor ventilation = get rekt | 02:31 |
| LjL | Tuvix, yeah and i remember in 2020 one of the worst states was Arizona during a heat wave | 02:31 |
| LjL | and it's summer now in South Africa | 02:31 |
| Tuvix | Oh, right, yes I don't think any business around here would deny me entry, even if they had opted to have a masks-required sign. | 02:31 |
| LjL | there are a few counterexamples | 02:31 |
| Tuvix | I used to eat once or twice a month at a dine-in place at the airport. Since it's attached to the (very small) airport here, masks are required unless you're actively eating or drinking. No one wears them, not really even the staff anymore. | 02:32 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i wonder what i'm meant to do if i don't have *any* mask in the first place :P i guess the bootstrapping excuse doesn't hold much water these days though (or does it? considering the newly-imposed FFP2 mandate and that people are out of them...) | 02:32 |
| minthos | order ffp2 online | 02:32 |
| Tuvix | I think I went twice during the pre-delta lull when mask advice was dropped, but I haven't been back since delta started to tick up, back in August. | 02:32 |
| LjL | minthos, you're supposed to wear a mask when the delivery person comes to deliver! :P | 02:32 |
| Tuvix | I mean, you can make a cloth mask out of a botton T-shirt if you really need. Even just fold a clean one up around your head or something? | 02:33 |
| Tuvix | cotton* | 02:33 |
| LjL | yeah | 02:33 |
| minthos | hold your breath or have them leave it at the door | 02:33 |
| LjL | initially even scarves on your mouth (and nose... maybe... *sigh*) were allowed here | 02:33 |
| LjL | i'm just musing, i don't think these are real problems | 02:33 |
| LjL | well, the shortage of FFP2 right after a mandate is, which isn't great | 02:34 |
| Tuvix | I'd presume if it's a known shortage a "best effort" approach would apply at least to places one needs to go. | 02:34 |
| Tuvix | Something like a dine-in place or other not-really-crucial venue I could see going either way depending on how eager the bouncer is. | 02:34 |
| LjL | public transport is likely going to be the biggest issue | 02:35 |
| LjL | they're not mandatory in shops | 02:35 |
| minthos | here's a strategy: stock up on ffp2 for health workers and delivery/logistics workers, order anyone else to stay home, tell mask producers to run their factories 24/7 until there are enough masks for everyone | 02:35 |
| LjL | they're mandatory on public transport, in schools (but they're supposed to be provided there), and cinemas, theaters, places like that - but not shops, malls, restaurants or other eating/drinking venue (where you still "have" to wear a surgical unless you're sitting down and eating/drinking) | 02:36 |
| LjL | minthos, as if we can tell mask producers anything as they're all in China :P | 02:36 |
| LjL | except for the Auras that cost 5 euro each | 02:36 |
| LjL | but... we shouldn't *still* be in this kind of dependency situation after two years. | 02:37 |
| minthos | better than telling people to not wear masks | 02:37 |
| minthos | capitalism works | 02:37 |
| LjL | does it | 02:37 |
| minthos | supply follows demand somewhat | 02:37 |
| LjL | i think we can settle on "it works somewhat" for the time being :P | 02:38 |
| LjL | but i'm really just complaining that we've had a lot of time to *work on* these things | 02:38 |
| LjL | and haven't used it appropriately, in my perception | 02:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Rwanda: +998 cases (now 106987), +37355 tests (now 3.9 million) since a day ago — Uruguay: +913 cases (now 408894), +2 deaths (now 6167), +13047 tests (now 4.4 million) since a day ago | 02:39 |
| LjL | what do i make the bot say if i make it say something like "In <Country>, 1 in N people have died of COVID"? because if i actually make it say "of", people will quip that it may be "with" or whatever | 02:40 |
| LjL | i also don't want to make it too long though, characters are precious | 02:40 |
| minthos | idk, report excess mortality instead? | 02:42 |
| Tuvix | The prasing above works, I think; I don't see any of that as unclear or excessively verbose, in fact I see no real way to make it shorter without losing meaning. | 02:43 |
| Tuvix | I'm not sure excess mortality is very evenly reported around the world, so that makes a harder generic point of comparison. | 02:43 |
| Tuvix | One summation (whose data I did not review myself) put the US excess deaths at ≈1.3M vs. ≈800k reported. | 02:44 |
| minthos | covid-related? | 02:45 |
| Tuvix | Yes, so this looked at how many deaths were reported, not from COVID directly, but were in excess of what would be expected for pre-pandemic times. | 02:45 |
| minthos | I meant it as a suggestion, sorry for being unclear | 02:45 |
| Tuvix | It's a statistical analysis, but it catches for example cases of heart attack that weren't caught in time (but would have been) had hospitals not turned people away, or made it hard to get there, etc. | 02:46 |
| Tuvix | Oh, nevermind :P | 02:46 |
| LjL | minthos, excess mortality isn't really available that way | 02:50 |
| LjL | yeah what he said | 02:50 |
| LjL | i could also use a phrase like "COVID deaths" but then i couldn't directly punch with "1 in N people died" | 02:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Moderna will drive majority of Canada’s COVID-19 booster campaign → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rqvj40/moderna_will_drive_majority_of_canadas_covid19/ | 02:51 |
| minthos | data science is hard work :/ | 02:52 |
| Tuvix | "In <country>, COVID death rate is 1 in N people" perhaps, if you wanted that. A tad longer than your original, but not by much. | 02:52 |
| Tuvix | Or "the COVID death rate" if you want to make #English happy :P | 02:52 |
| LjL | oh ##English can mostly go where the sun doesn't shine but that's just personal | 02:54 |
| Tuvix | Never been there myself, just offering you 4 more characters for a "complete" sentence :P | 02:54 |
| minthos | butchering english is a time-honored tradition | 02:55 |
| LjL | Brainstorm started off as a bot for ##English ;) | 02:55 |
| LjL | ... started out | 02:55 |
| LjL | whatever | 02:55 |
| LjL | that's why i needed a bot for it | 02:55 |
| LjL | %pr COVID | 02:57 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, English pronunciation: [kˈɒvɪd] (eSpeak, British) — [kˈɑːvɪd] (eSpeak, American) → Audio unavailable. | 02:57 |
| LjL | i don't even pronounce it like that | 02:57 |
| Tuvix | The pharmacy I got my booster at gave grade-school style pronouncation of the medication (they do it for anything you get or pick up from them.) "KO vid nine teen vak SEEN m R N A" | 02:58 |
| LjL | "gave" as in? | 02:59 |
| LjL | printed somewhere? is it for confirmation, for your knowledge...? | 03:00 |
| Tuvix | gave as in handed me a folded paper without any request for me to read it or care :P | 03:00 |
| Tuvix | This is not a high-end pharmacy, but I suppose they also figure coming in for my booster I know how this works by now. | 03:00 |
| * LjL is slightly confused | 03:00 | |
| LjL | like in a prescription so that you'd know what to read out in case you didn't? | 03:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japan to OK college exam entry even if test takers have close contact with omicron carriers → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rqvsro/japan_to_ok_college_exam_entry_even_if_test/ | 03:01 |
| Tuvix | It's just printed on the paperwork you get on your way out the door. | 03:01 |
| LjL | weird | 03:01 |
| Tuvix | Yea, it's the same form you walk away with if you got a refill for pain killers or whatever. | 03:01 |
| LjL | sorry, my language has a 80%-sane spelling system so i'm not accustomed to such oddities :P | 03:01 |
| Tuvix | Directions, cautions, instructions on how to use, and apparently how to pronounce it. Yea, I studied Spanish for all of 2 semesters, and like many non-English languages, 99% of the time if you can write it you can say it. | 03:02 |
| Tuvix | The rest are usually loan-words anyway… | 03:02 |
| LjL | with spanish that's almost universally true (it's less true the other way around, if you can say it you can't necessarily write it), with italian it's unfortunately less true, but still a LOT truer than english | 03:03 |
| LjL | which is a very, very low bar | 03:03 |
| Tuvix | If the plural of goose is geese, why isn't the plural of mouse meese? Yes, low bar indeed :P | 03:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Martinique: +645 cases (now 48473), +4 deaths (now 779), +22181 tests (now 488892) since 20 hours ago — Belize: +231 cases (now 31734), +5 deaths (now 597), +2823 tests (now 377975) since 4 days ago — Greenland: +1 deaths (now 1) since 7 hours ago | 03:04 |
| LjL | Tuvix, well that's grammar, and it's the way it is, italian has some of that... arguably more of that... but, why is "geese" pronounced with a hard G when "gee" isn't (and neither are a ton of other "ge-" words)? :P | 03:08 |
| LjL | "because it's the plural of goose, which is also pronounced with a hard G" is probably the best answer that doesn't have to bring up etymology | 03:08 |
| minthos | meese is the plural of moose | 03:08 |
| minthos | but I agree, english is super inconsistent | 03:08 |
| LjL | it's amoosing | 03:09 |
| Tuvix | Moose is both singular and plural, at least in any dictionary I've seen. | 03:09 |
| minthos | your dictionary sucks then | 03:09 |
| LjL | Tuvix, "meese" is listed as humorous plural on wiktionary :P | 03:09 |
| Tuvix | Ah, much more IRC-friendly dictionary then! | 03:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: State of Affairs: Dec 28 → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rqvz8a/state_of_affairs_dec_28/ | 03:10 |
| LjL | but this is very offtopic. what is the plural of mink?! | 03:10 |
| LjL | that's more relevant. wait not anymore. RIP. | 03:10 |
| Tuvix | Where's the mink-death-rate chart? :D | 03:11 |
| LjL | it's just a very tall vertical bar, at least in Denmark... | 03:11 |
| Tuvix | Ninety-some odd cats in the US (or was it worldwide? Not that it matters…) have tested positive for COVID-19. | 03:12 |
| Tuvix | Hopefully mine are not in that category, but I'm not really sure what I'd do if they did test positive. | 03:12 |
| minthos | get infected probably | 03:13 |
| LjL | Tuvix, cats *easily* get it | 03:14 |
| LjL | meaning, they also easily pass it on to other cats | 03:14 |
| LjL | there is no evidence that i know of that they pass it back to humans as easily (or at all) | 03:14 |
| LjL | but... i think also no clear evidence that they don't | 03:14 |
| LjL | yet that's another thing i've often seen written by health authorities, "you can't get it from pets" | 03:14 |
| LjL | nonsense. they don't know whether you can. it just doesn't matter because, at present, you're more likely to get it from humans anywaay | 03:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: S. Korea: New COVID-19 cases bounce back to above 5,000; critical cases hit record high → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rqw357/s_korea_new_covid19_cases_bounce_back_to_above/ | 03:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Sint Maarten: +109 cases (now 4947) since a day ago — Guinea-Bissau: +8 cases (now 6474), +336 tests (now 110892) since 2 days ago | 03:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): Omicron cases peaked 12/12 (single-day #) or 12/17 (7-day avg) so the lag from cases to hospitalizations is 0-2 weeks depending on how you measure pic.twitter.com/7AOPKY3QkB → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1476021122046967808 | 03:48 |
| francislemaire | LjL: hey, you told me before that inflation France was higher in 2008 than now and YOU GAVE ME this graph. THen you censored me. Shame on you piece of socialshit https://tradingeconomics.com/france/inflation-cpi | 03:55 |
| francislemaire | check 10 years | 03:55 |
| LjL | francislemaire, check 25 years (since i said 2008. it's been more than 10 years since 2008), and also be banned because clearly you don't have even the slightest acceptable manners, which is why i kicked you ("censored", lol) in the first place | 03:58 |
| LjL | now for the ban evasion... | 03:59 |
| Tuvix | https://xkcd.com/1357 | 04:01 |
| Tuvix | Though if that's a temporary address, it'll change in a few hours to a day or so anyway :\ | 04:02 |
| LjL | yeah that's partly why i didn't ban the in the first instance | 04:03 |
| LjL | them* | 04:03 |
| LjL | you can already see when they rejoined they had a different nickname which doesn't say anything good about their (un)willingness to ban evade | 04:03 |
| Tuvix | Yea, I guess if it's from the same /64 you can ban that, or just have network staff look into it. | 04:03 |
| Tuvix | I get some of the issues that may border on politics are going to have differing opinions, but indeed, that's no cause for rudeness. | 04:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO warns of Omicron overload as France reports record of nearly 180,000 Covid cases. France reported a record high of 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period on Tuesday, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic. → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rqx8c3/who_warns_of_omicron_overload_as_france_reports/ | 04:08 |
| LjL | in a 24 hour period that includes all the cases that went uncounted on christmas and boxing day? | 04:08 |
| LjL | ... and also the next day or two? | 04:08 |
| LjL | 'cause Brainstorm spat out a lot of "... since 4 days ago" | 04:09 |
| Tuvix | I just assume there's going to be a lot of goofy data and next-day (or several) reporting "fixes" and back-corrections. | 04:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +12968 cases (now 2.1 million) since 9 hours ago | 04:13 |
| LjL | yeah, me too. but i heard the France thing on TV as well | 04:14 |
| LjL | which doesn't mean anything except they didn't use their brain on the data before saying it on TV :P | 04:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Today in the US >412,000 new cases reported and now nearly 79,000 hospitalized newsnodes.com/us pic.twitter.com/R6WwPDwsCo → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1476028628265672705 | 04:26 |
| LjL | 79000 hospitalized... | 04:32 |
| LjL | oh, the current amount | 04:32 |
| Tuvix | cummulative total I presume. CDC's tracker hasn't updated today, but it's been around the 8k/day of new admissions recently: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases_newhospitaladmissions | 04:32 |
| LjL | still a pretty high jump from previous day based on the graph he attaches | 04:33 |
| Tuvix | Yea, kind of misleading to present the 440k (I think Eric low-balled it, at least going by CDC's evenign update) and the current in-hospital totals at once like that. | 04:33 |
| LjL | like around 10000 more, so yeah consistent with that, but more | 04:33 |
| Tuvix | Yes, the orange line on CDC's chart has been keeping it's fairly steep curve up in accelerating trends recently, and some states have yet to see the winter/omicron impact at all, yet. | 04:34 |
| Tuvix | Or rather, on the right-axis new hospital admissions. If you want to see how the rate is going, 1st derivative is often easier to parse. | 04:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Josiah 'So Mild' Grindrod (@JT_Grindrod): If you want to know what COVID19 endemicity looks like, this is it.Anyone that told you "endemic" was a good thing was either lying or stupid. twitter.com/BNODesk/status… → https://twitter.com/JT_Grindrod/status/1476032605447282688 | 04:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mexico: +4426 cases (now 4.0 million), +125 deaths (now 298944), +23350 tests (now 12.3 million) since a day ago — Panama: +1354 cases (now 489695), +3 deaths (now 7421), +12350 tests (now 4.5 million) since a day ago — Suriname: +108 cases (now 51791), +1 deaths (now 1188), +516 tests (now 168390) since a day ago | 04:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: The Coronavirus Can Persist for Months in Brain, Heart, and Intestines, Major Study Finds → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/rqy4wn/the_coronavirus_can_persist_for_months_in_brain/ | 04:55 |
| Spec_ | god i hate brainworms | 04:56 |
| LjL | https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/rqy4wn/the_coronavirus_can_persist_for_months_in_brain/hqd8eqd/ ← do this sort of comments come pre-printed? you just slap the sticker on it? | 05:00 |
| LjL | ths sounds pretty awful anyway, although it confirms things that were suspected ;( | 05:02 |
| LjL | https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1139035/v1_covered.pdf?c=1640020576 is the relevant preprint, ublix and whoever wants to be scared | 05:02 |
| LjL | "We show that SARS-CoV-2 is widely distributed, even among patients who died with asymptomatic to mild COVID-19" | 05:03 |
| LjL | (they had to be dead because this is an autopsy study) | 05:03 |
| LjL | "for up to 230 days following symptom onset" | 05:03 |
| LjL | i guess "Despite extensive distribution of SARS-CoV-2 in the body, we observed a paucity of inflammation or direct viral cytopathology outside of the lungs" is the only vaguely positive thing in the abstract | 05:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: The N.F.L. revises its coronavirus protocols after more than 90 players test positive. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rqy954/the_nfl_revises_its_coronavirus_protocols_after/ | 05:05 |
| LjL | "What is the burden of infection within versus outside of the respiratory tract? What cell types are infected across extra-pulmonary tissues, and do they support SARS-CoV-2 infection and replication? In the absence of cellular injury and inflammation in extra-pulmonary tissues, does SARS-CoV-2 persist, and if so, over what interval? Does SARS-CoV-2 evolve as it spreads to and persists in different anatomical compartments?" | 05:06 |
| LjL | these are pretty good question | 05:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Locked-down residents in China's Xi'an say they are at risk of starving in their homes after all 13 million residents were banned from going outside even to buy food under harsh new Covid measures sparked by just a few dozen cases → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rqygwd/lockeddown_residents_in_chinas_xian_say_they_are/ | 05:14 |
| LjL | Tuvix, ↑ may be what we don't want to copy :P | 05:16 |
| LjL | oh but it's the daily mail | 05:16 |
| LjL | https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rqygwd/lockeddown_residents_in_chinas_xian_say_they_are/hqd9n43/ | 05:16 |
| LjL | ridiculous | 05:17 |
| LjL | also, it says "On Sunday, city workers were dispatched to disinfect public spaces with residents warned not to touch anything until the chemicals had time to disperse." | 05:19 |
| LjL | (about my earlier wondering about their spraying of "stuff") | 05:19 |
| LjL | "Dongyan Jin, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, said the mass disinfection of outdoor air and surfaces seemed unnecessary given the low risk of people catching COVID-19 from outdoor surfaces or the air with so few people outside." | 05:20 |
| LjL | "'This is shooting mosquitoes with cannon,' said Jin, though he said he believed disinfection of indoor surfaces, especially in places visit by infected people, was necessary." | 05:20 |
| LjL | why don't we think that? have we *really* ruled out fomite transmission fully even though China still appears to treat it seriously? | 05:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Will shortened isolation periods spread the virus? → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/shortened-isolation-periods-covid-19-us-news-omicron-variant-7695690/ | 05:24 |
| LjL | i posted a thing https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rqygwd/lockeddown_residents_in_chinas_xian_say_they_are/hqddam6/ | 05:27 |
| ublx | i guess the virologist struggles to agree with the "overreact first, scale back later maybe" protocol, in this particular circumstance | 05:33 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: SARS-CoV-2 infection and persistence throughout the human body and brain ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/CEA8JMMH ) | 05:37 | |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Japan: +362 cases (now 1.7 million), +2 deaths (now 18389), +62601 tests (now 29.3 million) since a day ago — Belgium: +9965 cases (now 2.1 million), +32 deaths (now 28250) since a day ago — Netherlands: +1169 cases (now 3.1 million) since 12 hours ago — United Kingdom: +128806 cases (now 12.4 million) since 14 hours ago | 05:40 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: The Coronavirus Can Persist for Months in Brain, Heart, and Intestines, Major Study Finds ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/XSBV64F8 ) | 05:42 | |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: CDC cuts recommended isolation period for Americans to 5 days; can India follow suit? → https://indianexpress.com/article/lifestyle/health/cdc-reduces-recommended-isolation-quarantine-period-americans-10-days-to-5-india-experts-7694333/ | 05:43 |
| LjL | at least this is not the Daily Mail: https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rqygwd/lockeddown_residents_in_chinas_xian_say_they_are/hqde6mj/ | 05:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Will Shortened Isolation Periods Spread the Virus? → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rqz86b/will_shortened_isolation_periods_spread_the_virus/ | 05:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +819 cases (now 34.8 million), +272 deaths (now 480592), +1167612 tests (now 675.2 million) since 6 hours ago | 06:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Attenuated replication and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 Omicron → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rqzmq7/attenuated_replication_and_pathogenesis_of/ | 06:11 |
| -Bridgestorm- 🏠 Σεισμός! Earthquake! 5.9 Mb tremor, registered by ATH,EMSC, occurred 5 minutes ago (05:08:06 UTC), during twilight, Crete, Greece (34.55, 25.1) ± 2 km likely felt 250 km away (in Ηράκλειο, Ρέθυμνο, Χανιά…) by 223600 people — Webcams: https://www.windy.com/webcams/1638802478 https://www.windy.com/webcams/1587742123 https://www.windy.com/webcams/1457608302 (www.seismicportal.eu) | 06:14 | |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Breakthrough infections, hospitalizations of vaccinated doesn't mean vaccines ineffective: experts → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rqzqx4/breakthrough_infections_hospitalizations_of/ | 06:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for California, United States: +50138 cases (now 5.4 million), +80 deaths (now 76255) since 23 hours ago — North Carolina, United States: +32167 cases (now 1.6 million), +75 deaths (now 19308) since 5 days ago — Lombardy, Italy: +28795 cases (now 1.1 million), +28 deaths (now 34980) since 23 hours ago [... want %more?] | 06:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Fears of omicron’s rapid spread are tempered by signs of milder illness → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/fears-of-omicrons-rapid-spread-are-tempered-by-signs-of-milder-illness-7695774/ | 06:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Josiah 'So Mild' Grindrod (@JT_Grindrod): And someone is going to reply to this saying "endemicity is rt=1". Fair enough. But influenza, RSV, and other common diseases do not meet that definition either, so why would you ever expect SARS-COV-2 to reach an endemic steady state? → https://twitter.com/JT_Grindrod/status/1476067206932811777 | 06:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +54368 cases (now 7.1 million) since 19 hours ago | 07:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Vaccine effect fades faster for cancer patients; boosters restore it – Israeli study → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr16ct/vaccine_effect_fades_faster_for_cancer_patients/ | 07:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: SARS-CoV-2 infection and persistence throughout the human body and brain → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rr1f04/sarscov2_infection_and_persistence_throughout_the/ | 07:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from MedicineNet: (news): How COVID Sneaks Past Immune Defenses → http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp | 08:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Steve Miller (@SteveMillerOC): Regarding headlines about the number of children in the hospital increasing by X% …Realize that a 100% increase in almost zero is still pretty close to zero.Covid-19 is still an adult disease.Try to find the colors for kids on this bar [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1476087587882233863 | 08:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Explained: New easy-to-use Covid-19 pills come with a catch → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/explained-new-easy-to-use-covid-19-pills-pfizer-paxlovid-7695913/ | 08:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard tells the unvaccinated to ‘switch off your social media and switch on reality’ → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rr2aoq/nsw_health_minister_brad_hazzard_tells_the/ | 08:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Japan braces for Omicron spread as New Year's travelers fan across country → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr2ehc/japan_braces_for_omicron_spread_as_new_years/ | 08:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Pre-existing immunity against influenza can lower SARS-CoV-2 infection burden and spread - PrePrint → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/rr2hfb/preexisting_immunity_against_influenza_can_lower/ | 09:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily U.S. Covid Cases Hit All-Time High As Omicron Fuels Winter Wave → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr2oyk/daily_us_covid_cases_hit_alltime_high_as_omicron/ | 09:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: US reports record infections as Europe's Omicron cases also soar → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59814661 | 09:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Maharashtra, India: +2172 cases (now 6.7 million), +22 deaths (now 141476) since a day ago — West Bengal, India: +752 cases (now 1.6 million), +7 deaths (now 19733) since a day ago — Delhi, India: +496 cases (now 1.4 million), +1 deaths (now 25107) since a day ago — Gujarat, India: +394 cases (now 829957), +1 deaths (now 10115) since a day ago | 09:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): In the US, with omicron come changes in isolation regimes: 5 days only after testing positive, no test required. Several other countries taking similar steps as cases soar. Hope they study viral clearance for omicron before deciding, not just extrapolate [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1476110009821974528 | 09:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Canada’s Quebec will allow Covid positive health staff to work. Here’s why. → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/canadas-quebec-will-allow-covid-positive-health-staff-to-work-7696003/ | 09:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Philippines: +679 cases (now 2.8 million), +28 deaths (now 51241) since a day ago | 10:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Warning over patchy lateral flow test supply: As more and more people seek rapid tests, pharmacists say staff and customers are stressed over supplies. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59814032 | 10:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Antibodies that can block Omicron variant identified → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/antibodies-that-can-block-omicron-variant-identified-7696139/ | 10:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: 3 big questions about the Biden administration’s Covid response in 2022: STAT looked at Biden's Covid strategy and whether 2022 could finally be the year the pandemic fades into the background. → https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/29/as-biden-prepares-to-address-omicron-3-looming-questions-about-his-covid-19-response/ | 10:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: The U.S. record for daily cases is broken as an Omicron ‘tidal wave’ grows. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr4fsx/the_us_record_for_daily_cases_is_broken_as_an/ | 11:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: New study shows that communicating scientific uncertainty about the Covid vaccine made people think they understood it less, but they actually understood the complexities and possible outcomes more. Furthermore, not presenting uncertainties and [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/rr4oow/new_study_shows_that_communicating_scientific/ | 11:12 |
| Timvde | LjL: so we're almost at the tipping point probably, our R value rose from 0.76 to 0.84 in the past week | 11:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Coronavirus: Coronavirus cases reach record levels across Europe → https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-cases-record-europe-omicron-variant-vaccines-hospitalizations-travel-isolation/ | 11:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: COVID-19: Boris Johnson says 'up to 90%' in intensive care have not had a booster and urges people to get jabbed → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr5emp/covid19_boris_johnson_says_up_to_90_in_intensive/ | 11:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Latvia: +1319 cases (now 274271), +24 deaths (now 4553), +9906 tests (now 5.6 million) since 23 hours ago — Saint Lucia: +53 cases (now 13410), +299 tests (now 107139) since a day ago | 12:01 |
| sdfgsdfg | Boris comment sounds like boosters are very effective | 12:04 |
| sdfgsdfg | 90% ICU are not boosted | 12:05 |
| sdfgsdfg | I'm not getting my first 2 doses because I'd need the third and by then the wave will be over | 12:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Poland reports highest number of Covid-related deaths in fourth wave → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/poland-reports-highest-number-of-covid-related-deaths-in-fourth-wave-7696282/ | 12:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Early studies suggest a reduced risk of Covid-19 hospitalization when infected with Omicron compared to Delta → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/rr60fw/early_studies_suggest_a_reduced_risk_of_covid19/ | 12:28 |
| sdfgsdfg | maybe everyone will be mentally disabled by 2023, omicron works its way slowly through their brain ? | 12:33 |
| sdfgsdfg | anyways it sounds like it's all mild, with the people I know infected recently | 12:34 |
| xandra | yeah, i'm nervous about long-haul symptoms since i'm higher risk. | 12:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Senegal: +156 cases (now 74672), +1682 tests (now 916307) since 22 hours ago | 12:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Pediatric COVID-19 case rates, hospitalizations 'on fire' amid nation's latest surge → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr658z/pediatric_covid19_case_rates_hospitalizations_on/ | 12:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Thailand warns of spike in COVID-19 cases after "super-spreader" event → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rr6ai0/thailand_warns_of_spike_in_covid19_cases_after/ | 12:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Zambia: +5255 cases (now 243638), +10 deaths (now 3726), +16774 tests (now 2.9 million) since 23 hours ago | 13:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: As COVID outbreak intensifies, Israel said mulling 'mass infection' policy → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr6jkk/as_covid_outbreak_intensifies_israel_said_mulling/ | 13:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Study: COVID-19 sneaks past immune system by spreading from cell to cell → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr6ouu/study_covid19_sneaks_past_immune_system_by/ | 13:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Croatia: +5768 cases (now 703720), +41 deaths (now 12466), +13929 tests (now 3.7 million) since a day ago — Malta: +1337 cases (now 49717) since a day ago | 13:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: COVID surge in New Hampshire overwhelms the state's hospitals → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr6p9i/covid_surge_in_new_hampshire_overwhelms_the/ | 13:35 |
| squirrel | how much protection do current vaccines give against getting infected by omicron, and transmitting it once you got it? | 13:38 |
| squirrel | i swear this is so hard to find | 13:39 |
| oerheks | good question .. | 13:39 |
| oerheks | also those self tests, how reliable are they for omricon? | 13:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): We’re back with another Twitter spaces discussion on all-things Omicron in 90 minutes. What do you want to know?Situation in hospitals? Latest lab studies? Rethinking isolation policies?Leave us a reply and we’ll try to get through as many of [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1476170457749630976 | 13:44 |
| squirrel | so fda says they are not as good for omicron | 13:46 |
| squirrel | but they don't seem to say by how much | 13:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Scientists identify antibodies that can neutralize Omicron variant → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rr7aht/scientists_identify_antibodies_that_can/ | 13:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for UAE: +2234 cases (now 757145), +448050 tests (now 110.5 million) since 23 hours ago — Bangladesh: +495 cases (now 1.6 million), +1 deaths (now 28063), +20914 tests (now 11.5 million) since 23 hours ago | 13:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Leaders urge Americans to cancel New Year’s plans: ‘Omicron and delta are coming to your party’ → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr7div/leaders_urge_americans_to_cancel_new_years_plans/ | 14:03 |
| ublx | squirrel: the abstract of this preprint from December 14th mentions "Remarkably, neutralization of Omicron was undetectable in most vaccinated individuals." | 14:14 |
| ublx | haha, suppose i should actually link the preprint: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.21267755v1 | 14:16 |
| ublx | it immediately follows by saying that mrna booster shots recover "potent" neutralisation, albeit in lesser degree than for earlier strains | 14:16 |
| ublx | going just by the abstract, it seems not to consider how quickly boosted immunity wanes | 14:17 |
| squirrel | "exhibited potent neutralization of Omicron only 4-6-fold lower than wild type" what | 14:19 |
| squirrel | also "in most vaccinated individuals" | 14:20 |
| squirrel | so it worked for some | 14:21 |
| ublx | they chose to describe the neutralisation conferred by booster shots as "potent" in spite of the observation that the degree of neutralisation (boosted from 'zero' to 'something worth having') was 4-6 times worse against omicron than against original wuhan strain | 14:21 |
| ublx | still worth having, though, they contend | 14:21 |
| ublx | i believe the individuals in "in most vaccinated individuals" are pre-boosted. you'd need to read beyond the abstract to clarify that | 14:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Atlantic: How Long Will Boosters Last?: Walter Barker has, since the fall of 2020, had five doses of COVID-19 vaccine. He’s already starting to ponder when he might need a sixth. → https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/12/how-many-covid-19-booster-shots/621132/ | 14:23 |
| squirrel | oh well if they use such language in abstract | 14:23 |
| squirrel | also, i seem to be hearing that the booster provides much more protection than two doses of vaccine | 14:25 |
| squirrel | i thought the booster shot was just another shot of the same thing? | 14:25 |
| squirrel | how can the third shot be marginally better than the first two | 14:26 |
| ublx | well, according to that (preprint, let us stress) abstract, vaccinated but pre-boost individuals exhibit essentially zero neutralisation against omicron. boosting then confers some protection. some is "much more" than none | 14:27 |
| Raf[m] | It has to do with timing | 14:27 |
| squirrel | the abstract says "most" individuals exhibit 0 neutralization | 14:28 |
| ublx | and to absorb the applicability and limitations of that statement you'd have to study the paper beyond the abstract | 14:29 |
| squirrel | i would have thought that they would mention timing but they never do, do they | 14:29 |
| ublx | you will find remarks about timing elsewhere. i'm not trying to give comprehensive perspective; i just looked at the zotero articles repo linked in the /topic (Zotero: https://is.gd/7UgsH2), did a search on omicron, and picked out the first paper that seemed to touch on your questions | 14:31 |
| squirrel | i was just wondering about some antivax claims | 14:34 |
| squirrel | namely that by now the vaccines are only there to protect yourself, and so long as health services are not in the danger of being overwhelmed, that's an argument against any mandates | 14:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Saudi Arabia: +744 cases (now 554665), +1 deaths (now 8874), +84060 tests (now 33.0 million) since a day ago — Qatar: +443 cases (now 249245), +6352 tests (now 3.2 million) since a day ago — Gibraltar: +124 cases (now 8421), +972 tests (now 446080) since a day ago — Nepal: +209 cases (now 827972), +2 deaths (now 11590), +6433 tests (now 4.8 million) since a day ago | 14:37 |
| ublx | that train of thought seems moot now that health care capacity is being overwhelmed | 14:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: NJ Walmart Temporarily Closes After 90 Employees Catch COVID, Worker Says → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr853z/nj_walmart_temporarily_closes_after_90_employees/ | 14:42 |
| ublx | economic capacity is also being asphyxiated by staff sickness shortages (not the least affected being the health care sector), prompting somewhat desperate measures such as reducing post-sickness return-to-work times and foregoing the follow-up negative test requirement | 14:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Tokyo researchers work toward 'dream' COVID-19 vaccine that gives protection for life → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr89bo/tokyo_researchers_work_toward_dream_covid19/ | 14:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Over 85 cruise ships under CDC investigation following COVID outbreaks → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr8heh/over_85_cruise_ships_under_cdc_investigation/ | 15:01 |
| squirrel | tbh it seems that omicron wave basically didn't affect hospitalization rates | 15:03 |
| squirrel | 668 cases in total as of yesterday's data | 15:11 |
| squirrel | that's while there are 7-8k covid hospitalizations daily | 15:11 |
| squirrel | otoh there *are* 7-8k hospitalizations daily | 15:16 |
| squirrel | oh well | 15:16 |
| ublx | you're speaking of the UK? | 15:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): I don't buy the excuse that @US_FDA didn't specifically authorize rapid antigen tests to assess whether a person is still infectious and help guide isolation time. This is precisely how the tests are used in the UK and elsewhere. twitter.com/therecount/sta… [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1476197288024297473 | 15:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +17636 cases (now 1.3 million) since 22 hours ago — Fiji: +309 cases (now 53332), +1 deaths (now 698), +637 tests (now 471147) since 2 days ago | 15:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: U.S. Donates over 115,000 COVID-19 Pfizer Vaccines to Saint Lucia → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr9dti/us_donates_over_115000_covid19_pfizer_vaccines_to/ | 15:49 |
| Dredd | <squirrel> "how can the third shot be..." <- Because the immune system is complicated and very clever. Much more clever than the very simple modelling / study we do on vaccine effectiveness in vitro tbh | 15:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Many Latin American countries now among those with highest rates of vaccination → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rr9kmq/many_latin_american_countries_now_among_those/ | 15:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Recovered patients of severe COVID-19 infection 233% more likely to die within year than negative or mild-case counterparts → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rr9qa2/recovered_patients_of_severe_covid19_infection/ | 16:07 |
| oerheks | https://www.radboudumc.nl/en/news-items/2021/kidney-damage-as-a-result-of-coronavirus-infection | 16:10 |
| oerheks | so not only heart, diaphragm and lungs.. | 16:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Our T cells appear to be ready, willing and able to defend vs Omicron medrxiv.org/content/10.110… CD4+ and CD8+ cells hold up well in people vaccinated or prior Covid pic.twitter.com/nK9l63vDSA → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1476208683835002880 | 16:17 |
| finely[m] | <squirrel> "namely that by now the vaccines..." <- No, they protect others by lowering the chance you get infected. Can't spread to others if you don't have it. | 16:20 |
| finely[m] | And the majority of infection control is still social distancing, masks etc. The vaccines we have at the moment are very good at reducing severe consequences of catching COVID. They are less good at stopping infection (sterilising immunity), becoming less effective over time and with new variants. It seems we need at least three doses, preferably #3 being a different mRNA vaccine than the first two. | 16:20 |
| xx | finely[m]: that's a hotly debated topic though, the vaccination doesn't prevent getting infected nor spreading it to others, and making that assumption has guaranteed cost lives | 16:21 |
| xx | vaccination protects yourself directly, not really others (if we ignore the aspect of not taking up space in a hospital) | 16:22 |
| oerheks | It will hit you not as severe, that is all the vaccine does | 16:22 |
| xx | yup | 16:22 |
| oerheks | so it is not a vaccine, IMHO | 16:23 |
| finely[m] | <squirrel> "how can the third shot be..." <- The step in the vaccine trials that was skipped (because the outbreak was so bad) was working out the best amount and number of vaccines needed to give long term protection. We are still working that out. | 16:23 |
| xx | oerheks: that's probably gonna be the same wordplay eventually as 'airborne or not airborne' | 16:24 |
| xx | I'd still call it a vaccine, but it is not like many other vaccines because covid is not like many other diseases we vaccinate against | 16:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Run on rapid antigen tests leaves Australian governments scrambling for supplies → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rraa5g/run_on_rapid_antigen_tests_leaves_australian/ | 16:27 |
| finely[m] | Not ideal vaccines yet, but better than grinding up smallpox scabs and injecting them into healthy people. | 16:29 |
| summonner | finely[m], I'm pretty sure our worst is a whole lot better than that | 16:34 |
| summonner | I'm still amazed at the lack of (or rather actively intentional against?) medicine to treat this | 16:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +68145 cases (now 12.4 million) since 21 hours ago | 16:35 |
| Dredd | Where do people get the idea the vaccines have no effect on spread? They don't stop it for sure much like they don't prevent illness or catching covid for sure | 16:35 |
| Dredd | But they do make you more resilient to it, less infected and for less long | 16:36 |
| Dredd | And with lower viral load | 16:36 |
| Dredd | So overall they have a positive effect on transmission, albeit more indirectly in a lot of cases | 16:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A study of nearly 12,000 households in Denmark shows a marked reduction of Omicron transmission among people who had a 3rd (booster) shot medrxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/NjQPymxIG7 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1476212140956553222 | 16:37 |
| Dredd | Why do we always have to try and say "it does / doesn't stop transmission". Everything is shades of gray, especially when you zoom out to population level | 16:37 |
| Dredd | Even something having a 1% improvement would be amplified at population level especially considering we have exponents involved | 16:39 |
| Dredd | This also exactly how the flu jabs work as well, since they are far from 100% effective at preventing infection | 16:41 |
| Raf[m] | You have a good point but if that were true why are we still in a terrible pandemic | 16:41 |
| Raf[m] | With such high levels of vaccination | 16:41 |
| Dredd | That argument is funny, are you implying that without vaccination we would be in the same place? | 16:41 |
| Dredd | No, we would likely be far worse | 16:41 |
| Raf[m] | My campus is 97% vaccinated and there are more cases of covid compared to last year when there was no vaccine at all | 16:41 |
| Dredd | With many more people having severe and fatal outcomes | 16:42 |
| Raf[m] | Those numbers just don't look good | 16:42 |
| Dredd | Raf[m]: Last year it was a different strain that was less infectious and we were talking stricter behavioural measures since we didn't have vaccines | 16:42 |
| Dredd | Or effective drug therapies | 16:43 |
| finely[m] | Raf[m]: Omicron partially escapes the protections of the vaccines for the ancestral virus. And is much more contagious to boot. | 16:43 |
| Dredd | In particular here in the UK the first strain ripped through university campuses, they were basically shut down for a year and we're quarantined extremely harshly | 16:44 |
| Dredd | This year they are open, with lots of cases happening especially of late with Omicron | 16:45 |
| Dredd | Students are densely packed and don't follow COVID presenting v behaviours well | 16:45 |
| finely[m] | Many people are not following the behavioural changes that protect infection, assuming the vaccines mean this is over. And governments are reinforcing this idea by relaxing restrictions. | 16:46 |
| Dredd | In supermarkets here of the people not bothering with masks, half are students for example | 16:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Steve Miller (@SteveMillerOC): Danish data shows household transmission of Omicron is almost the same for unvaccinated and 2-shot vaccinated family members.But family members with a 3rd booster shot got infected only half as much. twitter.com/erictopol/stat… → https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1476217342472306689 | 16:46 |
| Dredd | finely: snap 😂 | 16:46 |
| finely[m] | <Raf[m]> "With such high levels of..." <- Most of the world isn't vaccinated. This will keep happening until they are. | 16:47 |
| Tuvix | The data is pretty clear in the US where counties that voted for Trump by a significant margin (something around 15 or more percent, I forget the exact distribution from the study) were also far less vaccinated and have had more death. The inverse is true of counties in the US that voted for Biden (by that same margin,) which tended to be far more vaccinated and have seen far less death since vaccines. | 16:48 |
| Tuvix | The impact on higher vaccination status is quite clear on outcomes. | 16:48 |
| Dredd | I find that the need to over simplify and put things into neat categories that "make sense" can be a particularly bad human cognitive bias at times. Especially since most humans usually have very poor insight into when it's happening | 16:48 |
| Dredd | E.g. "it stops people infecting each other" and "it doesn't stop people infecting each other" is a way too limited way to look at the vaccines | 16:50 |
| Tuvix | <Raf[m]> […] why are we still in a terrible pandemic « because ther are enough unvaccinated plus breakthrough cases to continue spreading. However, note that data since vaccines have been available continue to be quite clear that _severe_ outcomes (hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and death) are far, far lower for the vaccinated. | 16:50 |
| Dredd | Also "it's not a vaccine because it doesn't 100% stop the virus in every way" is a rather uninformed view of what a vaccine is | 16:51 |
| Tuvix | The flu is good at spreading too, but less good at it, and also less lethal on a population level. It still spreads because vaccines are much less effective than our COVID-19 vaccines, and it simply infects fewer people. Plus it's seasonal, and SARS-CoV2 does not really seem to be. | 16:51 |
| finely[m] | The people with psychological characteristics that correlate with "social conservatism" tend to view the world in black and white terms. Reality is always much more complicated. | 16:51 |
| Tuvix | The messaging of "vaccines prevent infection" was poorly done, although that is what the data showed initially. We just didn't have enough long-term data to back that claim up. | 16:51 |
| Tuvix | The public doesn't like to hear impercice statements from science, but of course that's what science is. This comic explains rather nicely: https://xkcd.com/683 | 16:52 |
| finely[m] | Yes, science is messy and hard to do right. It takes time. | 16:53 |
| Tuvix | The vaccines are mostly at this point a matter of tweaking (for the mRNA variety) for any new varients that need it, and boosting if immunity is shown to wane again after a 3rd dose. Messaging falls more in the PR & politics of it all. That used to be what you'd talk with your doctor about though, not media personalities or your social media feed :\ | 16:54 |
| aruns | Tuvix: Plus, the mixed messaging around whether or not vaccines can prevent transmission. | 16:55 |
| xx | Dredd: because people feel immortal with the vaccine, and also don't entertain the thought that they could be infectious, or just are more likely to be asymptomatic, so they are more likely to go to events and places where they can spread it | 16:55 |
| xx | hence vaccination can lead to more infections, even if it makes a person less infectious | 16:55 |
| xx | that's why people should still observe all other precautions against spreading it, irrelevant of whether they are or are not vaccinated | 16:55 |
| Tuvix | aruns: Right; they *seem* likely, based on data, to result in fewer cases, but many places aren't really doing enough testing to see how significant breakthrough in vaccinated+boosted are. They _may_ also spread less, but brekathrough still can spread (hence the need for masks in areas of high spread) | 16:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Derek Lowe (@Dereklowe): Everyone in our house appears to be negative for coronavirus, but meanwhile the flu is picking us off one by one! Cuts down on the festive atmosphere, for sure. → https://twitter.com/Dereklowe/status/1476218457448452104 | 16:56 |
| aruns | Tuvix: I wonder if there is also a distinction to be made between symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission | 16:56 |
| aruns | I suspect we don't have sufficient data atm. | 16:56 |
| aruns | (Although I haven't really had time to go through the papers / research in detail) | 16:57 |
| Tuvix | That's harder, since I'm aware of almost no data on that; in particular, asymptomatic cases are much less often detected (given the lack of symptoms,) _but_ we are currently here in the US with the tail of delta and beginning omicron surge, seeing more children that come in for unrelated things that test positive for COVID. | 16:57 |
| aruns | IMO, governments / public health agencies should have placed greater emphasis on the individual protection benefits. | 16:57 |
| Tuvix | Children in hospitals are also on the rise quite significantly in a number of places, which is concerning since the under-5's still can't get any doses currently. | 16:57 |
| Tuvix | I'ts still not a "huge" number, but the relative rise is seemingly concerning. | 16:58 |
| aruns | As I think mixed messaging can undermine public trust in the statements you put out. | 16:58 |
| finely[m] | There's "threat exhaustion" going on too. Its hard to stay vigilant over time. This threat will be a real marathon to deal with. | 16:58 |
| xx | aruns: mixed messaging is what caused this to be a pandemic in the first place | 16:58 |
| aruns | Also worth noting that the "Spanish" influenza of 1918 had four waves. | 16:59 |
| aruns | So it's not as though there isn't precedent. | 16:59 |
| Tuvix | aruns: I linked this yesterday as part of another converstaion, and my most recent screencap from this TV network was bvack in October (pre-omicron, at the fall of the worst of the delta surge in the US) but here's a pretty obvious graph showing your odds of living if you catch covid vax'd vs unvax'd: https://imgur.com/iuTf4ji | 16:59 |
| aruns | Thanks Tuvix | 16:59 |
| Tuvix | I don't know how much more obvious of a graph you'd need to conclude that vaccines are a huge improvement at living through this :\ | 16:59 |
| aruns | Agreed xx | 17:01 |
| aruns | Tbh, we need more technocratic people in governments worldwide. | 17:01 |
| xx | +1 | 17:01 |
| finely[m] | Public messaging is hard with so few people getting much science education nowadays. And the message has to change as the science discovers more. To get around threat exhaustion, messaging has the regularly change in creative ways. | 17:01 |
| aruns | The last British PM we had with a science background was Thatcher. | 17:01 |
| Tuvix | That, or leaders that actually took advice from the tech/science-connected people. | 17:01 |
| Tuvix | I don't mind if the top-figure is a politician, but they genrally don't do a good job in surrounding themselves with qualified technical aids. | 17:01 |
| aruns | Who worked as an industrial chemist before deciding to practice law. | 17:02 |
| aruns | Idk, I think they need some knowhow | 17:02 |
| xx | and some still consider her to be the best PM in modern UK history | 17:02 |
| aruns | As they still need to make sure the right scientific appointments are made. | 17:02 |
| finely[m] | In Australia lately, the joke is the politicians are following public health advice; just the advice they are listening to is from their doners, not doctors. | 17:04 |
| Tuvix | Wasn't vaccination uptake somewhat slow in Oz specifically because the initial lockdowns on international travel & domestic restrictions so effective that peple didn't feel the urgency? | 17:06 |
| Tuvix | Still, comparing Australia's death-incidence pandemic-long: 8.68/100k which is 1 in 11,520 people, to the US which is the world's top-death-rate currently at 249/100k which is 1 in 402 people. Those are very different outcomes. | 17:08 |
| aruns | I wonder how our Chief Medical Officer is appointed for England. | 17:09 |
| aruns | They are technically a senior civil servant. | 17:09 |
| Tuvix | Different countries too; the US is bigger, more geographically diverse, and really couldn't effect or have the political will to do such a harsh lockdown. | 17:09 |
| aruns | So it could be that the recruitment process for that position is handled entirely by the civil service. | 17:09 |
| aruns | Rather than the prime minister having complete discretion. | 17:10 |
| user27 | same old story | 17:10 |
| user27 | just couldn't be helped, 'our way of life' | 17:11 |
| finely[m] | Mostly because the federal government muppets bet everything on Astrazenca. Did not chase other vaccine supply until it was too late. We had a vaccine strollout. It must be a coincidence the company contracted to manufacture AZ was a liberal party doner. We could have had Pfizer as early as Israel. The prime minister didn't return their calls. | 17:11 |
| xx | why did the prime minister even have that much power... | 17:12 |
| Tuvix | It's usually a combination of the leader of government and the underlings they put in place in key positions. | 17:12 |
| finely[m] | The state governments pursued a zero covid policy until their populations had access to vaccines. Very strict mandates and heroic contact tracing (and much luck) kept a lid on it until now. Many states have been entirely covid free for long stretches. | 17:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Phase-I Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of a Prophylactic pDNA Vaccine Candidate Against COVID-19 in Healthy Adults → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05171946 | 17:15 |
| Tuvix | finely[m]: Are non-AZ vaccines widely available for those that want them instead there? | 17:16 |
| Tuvix | Now, at least… | 17:16 |
| finely[m] | xx: Pfizer wanted Australia to be an example of how a well run vaccine programming could save lives. Morrison just ghosted their CEO. | 17:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Stress Factors and Vaccine Attitudes Among Dental Students During COVID-19 → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05171933 | 17:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Portugal: +26867 cases (now 1.3 million), +12 deaths (now 18921) since 23 hours ago — Montenegro: +1507 cases (now 166581), +5367 tests (now 967203) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +16876 cases (now 3.1 million), +99 deaths (now 21317) since 20 hours ago — Canada: +23404 cases (now 2.1 million), +43 deaths (now 30272) since 22 hours ago | 17:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Persistent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Children With Cancer and Impaired Immune Responsiveness → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05172063 | 17:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): An Educational Self-tracking Tool for Identification of SARS-CoV-2 Risk Transmission → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05171829 | 17:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Greece: +28828 cases (now 1.1 million), +79 deaths (now 20636), +954692 tests (now 46.3 million) since a day ago | 18:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): High rate of asymptomatic carriers noted with Omicron as compared with prior variants, with high viral nasal titers in many carriers, adds to its rapid spread capabilitymedrxiv.org/content/10.110… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1476237922483335173 | 18:12 |
| Tuvix | ^ aruns that above link from the bot goes partway to answering from a more scientific view your musing earlier about asymptomatic transmission of omicron vs. earlier varients. | 18:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A 2nd report today from @ljiresearch also demonstrates vaccination induced T-cells vs Omicron (B.1.1,519) well preserved compared with all variants and with 3 different vaccinesbiorxiv.org/content/10.110… @aetarke @SetteLab twitter.com/EricTopol/stat… pic.twitter.com/cAQLqRS0RB → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1476242703717257221 | 18:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mozambique: +3624 cases (now 179272), +12 deaths (now 1988), +8790 tests (now 1.1 million) since 20 hours ago — Morocco: +1504 cases (now 959098), +5 deaths (now 14842), +19466 tests (now 10.8 million) since 23 hours ago — Dominican Rep.: +911 cases (now 416270), +8 deaths (now 4246), +3106 tests (now 2.6 million) since 23 hours ago [... want %more?] | 18:40 |
| user27 | so the CDC should be extending this isolation not reducing it ? | 18:49 |
| user27 | or are viral asymptomatic load and isolation time, mutually exclusive | 18:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Steve Miller (@SteveMillerOC): More background on stories about SARS2 RNA in the brain:The studies are from autopsies, so necessarily from the most severe uncontrolled infections. They are not representative of a typical infection, or even a typical severe hospitalized infection. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1476248178148069377 | 18:50 |
| Tuvix | user27: Well, depends what the goal is. There are competing interests to reduce the impact on businesses (like hospitals and airlines, to name 2 hit hard so far) but also do a reasonable job of controlling spread. The pushback I hear so far from doctors in the know against the CDC's latest guidance is that it's not testing based for your isolation and relies on the honor system which isn't always | 18:52 |
| Tuvix | followed. | 18:53 |
| aruns | Tuvix: What is the role of T-cells vs antibodies? | 19:01 |
| aruns | Both my first and second shots used the AstraZeneca vaccine. | 19:01 |
| aruns | And IIRC they produce fewer antibodies than the mRNA vaccines such as Moderna and Pfizer. | 19:02 |
| aruns | But they produce T-cells. | 19:02 |
| aruns | Initially I assumed that the AstraZeneca vaccine was not as effective as either of those two mRNA vaccines due to the lower antibody count | 19:02 |
| Tuvix | My somewhat limited medical understanding is that the T-cells are largely responsible for cell-memory which are called on to produce antibodies when a similar infection presents itself in the future. There's also a connection to B-cells which largely live in the lymph nodes, and that's part of what the booster is designed to improve and help "train" with any kind of a 3-dose vaccine (dose, +1 month dose, | 19:03 |
| Tuvix | +6 month dose is a common theme in other childhood vaccinations for example.) | 19:03 |
| Tuvix | Antibodies are not really the goal for vaccination protection, but it's one of the only things we can reliably measure. There's just not an easy way to measure, in a non-infected patient, how well the cell memory (T and B-cell response) is. | 19:04 |
| aruns | Ah I see. | 19:04 |
| aruns | I'm not an expert in virology / immunology | 19:04 |
| aruns | If you have been double vaccinated for e.g. and are infected with Covid | 19:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Luxembourg: +1053 cases (now 101256), +1 deaths (now 911), +7481 tests (now 3.8 million) since 23 hours ago — Faroe Is.: +287 cases (now 5548), +5000 tests (now 638000) since a day ago — Sierra Leone: +72 cases (now 6891) since 22 hours ago | 19:05 |
| aruns | Does that infection, and subsequent infections, deplete your antibody count? | 19:05 |
| aruns | Or does it use the same antibodies throughout? | 19:05 |
| aruns | I presume it uses cell-memory to produce further antibodies should the viral load overwhelm the existing antibodies | 19:06 |
| Tuvix | antibodies are produced in order to fight an infection; the body can make more, but without prior exposure, it doesn't know how. Vaccination is more about training the cells to identify and produce effective antibodies, similar to training for a sporting competition. | 19:06 |
| aruns | Yeah I know that, but do infections deplete antibodies? | 19:07 |
| aruns | Ah | 19:07 |
| aruns | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873 | 19:07 |
| Tuvix | The way I've heard a number of doctors in this field describe it is that protection for long-duration vaccinations or prior-infections (think things like Measles and so on) work is that after your initial vaccination series, you don't really have active antibodies anymore, but the cells remember how to produce them if you later encounter that infection. | 19:09 |
| user27 | Tuvix, you hear from doctors? | 19:10 |
| user27 | the goal is to stop the spread of covid ofc | 19:10 |
| aruns | Ah I see | 19:10 |
| Tuvix | Think of it a bit like the cells identifying the intruder and saying "ah-ha, I know how to fight that, we'll go produce antibody-XYZ" and begin production to fight it off. | 19:11 |
| aruns | So am I right in thinking that the initial antibodies that are produced by either shot can't be used for future exposure? | 19:11 |
| Tuvix | If you encounter a new one, the body has to learn without that benefit, and as you've probably heard with vaccination, that can take days up to a couple weeks, and the initial batch of antibody production won't be as good as with future vaccination, ie: exposure to the proteins that are involved. | 19:11 |
| aruns | They are produced in response to the vaccine triggering an immune response | 19:11 |
| aruns | And can't be used as part of a subsequent immune response | 19:12 |
| Tuvix | Well, the initial antibodies, if still present when you do get an infection, aren't going to be as good as 2nd or 3rd round protection. That's where the B-cell memory comes in, since those are part of the body's "long term" cell memory system. | 19:12 |
| aruns | To clarify, when you say 2nd or 3rd round protection, are you talking about the second and booster shots respectively, or a hypothetical second or third infection? | 19:13 |
| Tuvix | Any antibodies you have that are effective (even partially) will attach themselves to an infection. It's just not as good at doing so as after later vaccination, which is why 1 and 2-dose mRNA recipients are doing less well if they get infected now as compard to the boosted (3rd mRNA, or 2nd mRNA after a traditional vectored vaccination) | 19:13 |
| aruns | Ah, presume you're talking about second and third shots. | 19:13 |
| Tuvix | I'm talking about boosters, but for instance similar boosting effects are seen if you get vaccinated after an infection you were not protected from. | 19:14 |
| aruns | So natural vs vaccine immunity. | 19:14 |
| Tuvix | THat's part of why it's still crucial to get vaccinated even if you are infected without protection; your protection appears to wane from the infection, and with omicron we're seeing plenty of reports of re-infection; the first 'official' US death from Omicron ( at least reported death) was a re-infection. | 19:14 |
| aruns | I see, so the antibodies that are produced as part of the immune responses triggered by vaccination aren't really to be used to combat exposure to the live virus. | 19:16 |
| aruns | It's more about muscle memory for your body | 19:16 |
| aruns | So it remembers how to fight that infection | 19:16 |
| Tuvix | They can be, but the body is _also_ going to produce more. That's part of why you feel like crap when you're sick is because the body is dealing with all kinds changes in production to combat the virus. | 19:17 |
| aruns | Indeed. | 19:17 |
| Tuvix | We feel "bad" less becuase of the initial infection and more becuase of the immune response. Of course, the virus can do a lot more damage if left unchecked in this case. | 19:17 |
| aruns | Agreed. | 19:17 |
| Tuvix | The body won't just sit and wait, but it's going to do a worse job of responding, especially early in the infection, if the cells can't produce effective antibodies, and that's made worse if your existing antibodies are not well trained. | 19:18 |
| Tuvix | tl;dr: vaccination and (when eligible) boosting matters, even with prior infection. | 19:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): With yet another in vivo study of Omicron infection today, it sure is looking that this variant has less virulence, less chance of inducing Covid pneumoniaNew report: biorxiv.org/content/10.110…Added to our immunity wall and T cell defense, this is all good. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1476253179503251461 | 19:18 |
| aruns | I'm just not clear on how much of the antibodies produced by the inert virus (released as either a weakened pathogen or via another method such as creating a viral protein by mRNA) can be used in fighting subsequent infections / exposure | 19:19 |
| aruns | In terms of how your system knows whether to use those antibodies or to produce more | 19:20 |
| Tuvix | It's not a simple answer because a lot of it really depends on: A) how good the antibodies are at identifying and attacking the virus, B) how many you have and/or are producing from cells, C) how effective the cell-memory is at producing effective antibodies (how well trained they are,) D) the varient you get and how good it may be able to evade prior protection. | 19:21 |
| aruns | I see. | 19:22 |
| lastshell | how the end of the republic is going ? | 19:22 |
| aruns | Thanks Tuvix | 19:22 |
| lastshell | do we have enough time/data to know if omicron is less severe or we are still not clear? | 19:23 |
| Tuvix | It seems somehwat less-severe overall, we _think_ , but that's got a couple huge unknowns. We've got little idea on long-covid impact, and also little idea yet if the possibly-less-serious (on average of course) imapct is offset by more people getting ill and flooding hospitals. | 19:24 |
| Tuvix | Children for instance in the US are seeing an uptick in hospitalizations as compared with prior varients, which isn't a great sign considering the youngest still cannot get vaccinated. | 19:25 |
| Tuvix | SOme doctors are also saying they don't seem any more sick, but somare are also reporting the ones in the hospital aren't really any _less_ sick either. Remember, you end up in the hospital when things are already not going well. | 19:25 |
| lastshell | Tuvix I saw some news about the children increase in hospitals | 19:25 |
| lastshell | wonder why is that the case (the discrepancy between hospitals) | 19:26 |
| Tuvix | Let's say for example that Omicron is 70% less serious; all it would take is a 333% relative infection spread ratio (or it just happening faster, all at once basically) to overwhelm hospitals. That's likely part of the effect we're beginning to see. | 19:26 |
| lastshell | could be covid (variants) ? | 19:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Wednesday 29 December 2021 Update → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/rremaa/wednesday_29_december_2021_update/ | 19:27 |
| Tuvix | We're detecing more cases, yes, but also hospitalizations quite sharply since early November (which would be mostly delta, not yet omicron until basically the last 2 to 3 weeks.) Not sure where you are, but in the US the national rise in just NEWLY admitted patients hasn't been great: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases_newhospitaladmissions | 19:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +98016 cases (now 5.9 million), +136 deaths (now 137091), +1029429 tests (now 137.8 million) since a day ago — Israel: +3715 cases (now 1.4 million) since 21 hours ago — France: +110486 cases (now 9.4 million), +301 deaths (now 124185) since 22 hours ago | 19:30 |
| user27 | since cases are going to the moon, this is the talking point | 19:31 |
| lastshell | early nov maybe halloween gathering? | 19:35 |
| Tuvix | I'd bet more seasonal factors and more people indoors as the weather gets colder. | 19:36 |
| Tuvix | In the states anyway we saw much of the north get hit early, especially areas like NYC and pockets in New England states on the northeast seaboard. That's also where a lot of international travel and close living exists. | 19:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Daily UK case numbers hit record of 183,037: The spike in reported cases comes as frustration grows over a lack of available lateral flow tests. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59822687 | 19:37 |
| LjL | <Timvde> LjL: so we're almost at the tipping point probably, our R value rose from 0.76 to 0.84 in the past week ← look at our numbers today (and nearby countries, but honestly most of those just didn't count *any* cases on Christmas and the couple of days following it), and you won't be surprised when every country in the EU spikes ;( | 19:42 |
| -Bridgestorm- 🌒 Gempa bumi! Lindu! Earthquake! 6.0 Mb tremor, registered by HKOEARTHQUAKE5E,ObservatoryHK,alomax, occurred 16 minutes ago (18:25:52 UTC), with a crescent moon, Banda Sea (-7.65, 127.63), ↓171 km likely felt 270 km away (in Dili…) by 222300 people (alomax.free.fr) | 19:42 | |
| xx | LjL: well, isn't that exactly what we *all* predicted? | 19:45 |
| xx | we all watch helplessly as we see exactly what we predicted unfold | 19:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: A third of Ohio deer test positive for COVID-19 virus: Jim Wappes | Editorial Director | CIDRAP News Dec 29, 2021 Researchers warn the findings could complicate future COVID-19 mitigation and control plans. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/12/third-ohio-deer-test-positive-covid-19-virus | 19:56 |
| Spec_ | oh deer | 19:58 |
| xx | should have masked up | 20:01 |
| Jigsy | https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/rremaa/wednesday_29_december_2021_update/ | 20:04 |
| Jigsy | 183K. | 20:04 |
| Jigsy | We did it! | 20:04 |
| Jigsy | Because Brits are idiots. | 20:04 |
| xx | is that a new record? | 20:05 |
| LjL | is it a real record though? like are there still cases lagging from Christmas day(s) in it? | 20:06 |
| Jigsy | Yes. | 20:07 |
| Jigsy | And yes. | 20:08 |
| user27 | Jigsy, and your a brit | 20:08 |
| LjL | Milan is getting around 1% of its whole population in new cases per day now (ping imaginary) | 20:08 |
| -Bridgestorm- 🌐 Earthquake! భూకంప! நிலநடுக்கம்! მიწისძვრა! 6.1 Mwp tremor, registered by early, occurred 24 minutes ago (18:43:24 UTC), during daytime, English, United States (38.18, -86.57), ↓479 km likely felt 290 km away (in Louisville, Jasper, Owensboro, Evansville, Paoli…) by 843100 people — Webcams: https://www.windy.com/webcams/1623089061 https://www.windy.com/webcams/1623081974 | 20:08 | |
| -Bridgestorm- https://www.windy.com/webcams/1623081741 (webservices.ingv.it) | 20:08 | |
| LjL | wut | 20:08 |
| Jigsy | user27: Yes, but unlike everyone else, at least I wear a mask. | 20:08 |
| LjL | the hell are you doing brainstorm | 20:08 |
| Jigsy | Wow, 6.1. | 20:08 |
| user27 | Jigsy, been to any EPL games? | 20:08 |
| Jigsy | EPL? | 20:08 |
| user27 | footie | 20:08 |
| LjL | Jigsy, there's a 7.something in Indonesia, but it's definitely not in "English, United States" | 20:09 |
| Jigsy | I'm not into sportball. | 20:09 |
| LjL | i hope that didn't message to many random people on twitter | 20:09 |
| user27 | south indian | 20:09 |
| user27 | maybe Indiana from fracking | 20:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +153300 cases (now 12.6 million) since 23 hours ago | 20:13 |
| LjL | user27, it's actually INGV's fault, not my bot's, for once | 20:14 |
| LjL | i don't think this is a real event | 20:14 |
| LjL | but it's listed here http://terremoti.ingv.it/event/29354751 | 20:14 |
| LjL | it's listed as 480km depth so *if* it's real, it's definitely not from fracking | 20:15 |
| LjL | but i think it's an artifact from the Indonesia earthquake | 20:15 |
| LjL | <user27> south indian ← lol, i was now trying to figure out why it printed it in a bunch of South Indian scripts despite it supposedly being in the US, but you had given me the answer and i didn't even realize :P | 20:22 |
| LjL | ('Southern India', ['en', 'te', 'ta', 'ka', 'ml']), | 20:22 |
| LjL | imaginary, ↑ | 20:23 |
| LjL | cursed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flinn%E2%80%93Engdahl_regions with "Southern India" and "Southern Indiana" both being a thing! | 20:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "Incidental Covid"nytimes.com/2021/12/28/wor…A dream for the future. An increase of these in the present@MarcSantoraNYT and @meganspecia pic.twitter.com/KzEUPzSdjp → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1476271623598592001 | 20:25 |
| user27 | those cities are Illinois and Kentucky | 20:25 |
| user27 | I think :) | 20:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Theo Sanderson (@theosanderson): Omicron/Delta rates by region of England pic.twitter.com/pgGXo1jSlM → https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1476272930908737540 | 20:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Turkey: +34714 cases (now 9.4 million), +142 deaths (now 82059), +735205 tests (now 118.0 million) since 22 hours ago — Albania: +547 cases (now 208899), +5 deaths (now 3212), +9939 vaccines (now 1.1 million), +12264 tests (now 1.5 million) since 22 hours ago | 20:38 |
| LjL | user27, but the epicenter it gave is English, Indiana | 20:40 |
| LjL | a tiny place, but for the epicenter it just picks the closest named place | 20:40 |
| LjL | i also suspected that was spurious since, you know, "English" sounds like something wrong happened there | 20:41 |
| LjL | but if it did, it was INGV's fault, not my bot's :P | 20:41 |
| LjL | now i had to stop the bot and i can't restart it until INGV fixes this :\ | 20:42 |
| LjL | or it'll post it again | 20:42 |
| user27 | might be a town called 'english' | 20:44 |
| user27 | or i guess thats also what you just said sorry | 20:44 |
| Arsanerit | Lauterbach thinks real incidence is 2–3 times higher than measured | 20:45 |
| imaginary | LjL: lmaoo | 20:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: No contact required: Covid fuels vending machine revival in Japan | Japan → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rrgn52/no_contact_required_covid_fuels_vending_machine/ | 20:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ireland: +16428 cases (now 747895), +22 deaths (now 5912) since a day ago — Cyprus: +3002 cases (now 157928), +5 deaths (now 635) since 22 hours ago — Aruba: +671 cases (now 19021) since 22 hours ago | 21:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: World Health Organization says 'tsunami' of Omicron cases will pressure hospital systems on the 'brink of collapse' → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rrgyqb/world_health_organization_says_tsunami_of_omicron/ | 21:13 |
| xx | haven't hospitals been 'on the brink of collapse' for years now? | 21:13 |
| LjL | not like this | 21:19 |
| xx | I've met a new breed of people recently, they claim "If covid was actually bad, they'd be more serious about all the restrictions" | 21:20 |
| xx | so maybe hospitals starting triage might convince them | 21:20 |
| Tuvix | Service is already degrading, so we're basically seeing triage, just not like in the movies (eg: M*A*S*H and similar.) | 21:22 |
| Tuvix | The strain and failure of hospitals is largely invisible unless you pay attention to the news about them or ask a doctor (or walk into a hospital, or worse: need their services yourself) | 21:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD (@michaelzlin): We're now 1 year without a FDA commissioner, in the middle of the deadliest epidemic in American history. No wonder drug companies feel empowered to call the shots.The WH took 1y after the election to find a candidate, only to name the same one from [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1476286321920405504 | 21:22 |
| Arsanerit | xx: I've seen that reasoning from the very start. | 21:24 |
| xx | Arsanerit: guess I've been fortunate enough to only meet such people recently | 21:26 |
| aradesh | well in a way it's an accurate description | 21:28 |
| aradesh | the severity and seriousness of the restrictions reflects the seriousness of the situation | 21:28 |
| aradesh | or at least, it reflects how seriously a government is handling it | 21:28 |
| xx | I've only really seen them being strict in china | 21:28 |
| xx | but can't tell for sure how legitimate that info was | 21:28 |
| aradesh | i reckon it was pretty seriously treated there | 21:29 |
| aradesh | well ok, if you're not a country who is being super careful, i.e. all western countries, then the govts seem to be doing as little as literally possible | 21:29 |
| aradesh | so in that way their actions kind of reflect the seriousness of the situation :P | 21:29 |
| aradesh | in some degree | 21:29 |
| aradesh | does triage mean choosing who to treat? | 21:29 |
| aradesh | i saw a story in scotland that some hospitals there are choosing not to treat unvaccinated people for "unnecessary" things like fertility treatment | 21:30 |
| xx | that's not triage | 21:31 |
| xx | that's the general trend of putting off "unnecessary" procedures until hospitals are better off | 21:31 |
| aradesh | i thought triage is when you check someone over when they come in, to see what they need, what department they need to go to, etc? | 21:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): Fantastic thread (both in style and substance)Although Omicron is very capable of evading antibodies and causing reinfections/breakthroughs, it barely evades T-cells at all, meaning vaxxed or recovered people are likely to retain very good protection [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1476287523412488194 | 21:32 |
| xx | %wiki triage | 21:32 |
| Brainstorm | xx, from English Wikipedia: In medicine, triage (/ˈtriːɑːʒ, triˈɑːʒ/) is a practice invoked when acute care cannot be provided for lack of resources. The process rations care towards those who are most in need of immediate care, and who benefit most from it. More generally it refers to prioritisation of medical care as a whole. In [... want %more?] → https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage | 21:32 |
| LjL | the term "triage" is used here to mean the preliminary assessment they do for *anyone* in ER. but in English the term generally refers to when conditions are tough and there aren't enough facilities to treat all patients, so you assess which ones are more likely to have a better outcome (or survive), and the ones you think are likely to die anyway, well... | 21:32 |
| aradesh | so it'd be like the case in scotland i described, but if it was for essential treatment? | 21:32 |
| Tuvix | aradesh: Right. While it's just one example, a military veteran here made national news a couple months back becuase he died from a gallbaldder infection, easily treated. He couldn't get seen in time in the urgent care he went to due to all the COVID stress. | 21:33 |
| Tuvix | That's failure of triage to deal with what should have been a simple and tretable condition. He died because of COVID, but not actually from COVID. | 21:33 |
| Tuvix | treatable* | 21:33 |
| aradesh | my dad keeps complaining he can't see a doctor. though my dad is stupid and thinks it's because all the doctors are giving vaccines all the time and not bothering to see their normal patients | 21:33 |
| Tuvix | Also, most the vaccines are given by nurses, not doctors. | 21:34 |
| aradesh | he imagines them being lazy, giving a few vaccines a day, and then cancelling all their appointments, lol | 21:34 |
| Tuvix | Well, maybe he should talk with some real doctors? Most of this armchair commentary is just from people looking to validate viewpoints they feel the need to justify to others, or so I've seen. | 21:34 |
| aradesh | he believes a lot of fake news about it :/ | 21:35 |
| Tuvix | The "<X> group is just having a hard time becuase they're lazy" trope is over-used. | 21:35 |
| Tuvix | See: public service workers, construction, etc. | 21:35 |
| aradesh | but either way, the fact my dad can never get a doctors appointment is an example of this i guess | 21:36 |
| LjL | Tuvix, argue your point better | 21:36 |
| LjL | the IRC-covid-arguers group is having a hard time convincing anyone because they're lazy | 21:36 |
| LjL | pls | 21:36 |
| aradesh | are we IRC-covid-arguers? | 21:36 |
| Tuvix | I had to wait originally almost 2 weeks for my booster. It's just the strain on the system (although I eventually looked around and found one a half-hour drive away with only a week wait.) | 21:37 |
| xx | what's an irc-covid-arguer? | 21:37 |
| Tuvix | Just supply & demand there, but there was a lot of interest with both Omicron and in my region they'd just locally approved the 16 & 17 year olds for boosters too, so multiple groups were competing for appointment slots. | 21:37 |
| LjL | you *are* IRC-covid-arguers! | 21:38 |
| LjL | at least sometimes | 21:38 |
| LjL | arguably | 21:38 |
| LjL | okay i'll stop acting like i'm drunk and go back to waiting for earthquakes | 21:38 |
| xx | that's gonna be my weekend activity, sit on the porch and wait for an earthquake | 21:39 |
| Tuvix | Quake notications: https://xkcd.com/723 | 21:39 |
| xx | anyone asks me anything, I'll just say I'm busy | 21:39 |
| Tuvix | notifications* | 21:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +208208 cases (now 9.6 million), +180 deaths (now 124358) since 21 hours ago | 21:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Florida reports 46,923 new coronavirus cases, shattering state daily record → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rrhowx/florida_reports_46923_new_coronavirus_cases/ | 21:41 |
| LjL | Tuvix, also, literally the tl;dr introduction to how my bot works: https://www.reddit.com/r/EEW/wiki/index :P | 21:46 |
| Tuvix | I bet twitter "realtime" delivery lag is still more than either speed-of-light delay or network lag. Still neat, even if not delivered faster than the quake itself. | 21:49 |
| xx | twitter used to be faster | 21:50 |
| xx | I suspect it now runs through some detection of material that should be censored before publishing it | 21:50 |
| user27 | I think Tuvix is a "doctor" | 21:50 |
| Tuvix | You have data on the realtime API delay over time of twitter? Or you just feel it used to be faster, xx? That linked wiki page was specifically about the keyword-centric API. | 21:51 |
| user27 | hopefully not a chiropractor | 21:51 |
| xx | Tuvix: I don't have data myself, just remember it from some hackernews thread | 21:51 |
| xx | all APIs get slower over time anyway | 21:52 |
| LjL | Tuvix, it's definitely more, and most of the time it does not get delivered faster than the quake itself... what i *actually* wanted to do was to create a smartphone app that would use the accelerometers to detect shaking and when enough phones were shaking, it would send an early warning. but i failed miserably at writing Android apps, while i knew how to write bots a bit... ;( | 21:52 |
| Tuvix | Ah, the same approach google uses to deal with real-time traffic conditions. | 21:53 |
| LjL | xx, Tuvix: i think the average *reported* delay between when a tweet gets posted and when i receive it over the streaming API is like 5-10 seconds. which is significant but it normally takes the bot around *a minute* to send a warning, so it's not the main show stopper | 21:53 |
| LjL | but of course they could be lying to me about the timestamp, for all i know | 21:53 |
| LjL | Tuvix, Google is also using it for earthquakes now. google "Android Earthquake Alerts" (you won't find much, but it's live in some countries, and in other countries it's not quite live but if there has just been a detected earthquake and you google "earthquake" while being close to it, it will show you an alert) | 21:54 |
| LjL | also there *are* apps like that, like Earthquake Network, which is probably the only one with a decent active userbase | 21:54 |
| LjL | they were created a bit after i had the idea, or at least i found them later, and also i detest the way that app has payments to get warnings faster | 21:55 |
| user27 | https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1475978661295706117 | 21:55 |
| LjL | but hey, whatever works | 21:55 |
| LjL | i like how under some threads (like that one) Twitter now writes "Heads up: Conversations like this can be intense. Don’t forget the human behind the screen." | 21:56 |
| LjL | for some value of "like" | 21:56 |
| LjL | Tuvix, btw the roughly-one-minute (sometimes 40 seconds or so, not very often) warning time i get with the bot *could* be theoretically useful to some people with some larger earthquakes. but the thing is... if an earthquake is weak to moderate, people will tweet about it immediately. but it won't be useful, because the earthquake isn't big enough to affect people "one minute away". on the other hand, if the earthquake is very big, it would be useful, but then | 21:59 |
| LjL | people *won't* tweet about it immediately because they're, err, busy with other stuff | 21:59 |
| LjL | so yeah i think it's good Google is doing this thing with virtually *all* Android users, although i'm very annoyed it's entirely proprietary as part of the Play Services | 22:00 |
| xx | you probably don't understand modern human priorities | 22:00 |
| xx | tweet first | 22:00 |
| xx | save oneself later | 22:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: News Scan for Dec 29, 2021: Shorter Omicron incubation period Weight loss surgery and COVID severity Antibiotic use in Latin American hospitals Flu and COVID cocirculation in the Americas → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/12/news-scan-dec-29-2021 | 22:00 |
| xx | there's a theory that pompeii was an extremely advanced society with its own version of twitter, and the people there were just recording and tweeting about the eruption instead of running away | 22:02 |
| LjL | xx, oh i do understand them, look | 22:02 |
| LjL | [11:35:34] <LjL> earthquake | 22:02 |
| LjL | [11:35:35] <LjL> here | 22:02 |
| LjL | [11:35:42] <Bridgestorm> ❗ ALLARME TERREMOTO / EARTHQUAKE WARNING for Northern Italy (just felt near Milan?) — Follow for updates (Twitter) | 22:02 |
| LjL | [11:37:53] <LjL> no shit | 22:02 |
| LjL | xx, i don't know about that theory, but Pliny the Younger was literally like "nah uncle, i won't come with you to see what's happening in Pompeii with that big mushroom cloud, i have to study" | 22:05 |
| LjL | "Sometimes it looked light coloured, sometimes it looked mottled and dirty with the earth and ash it had carried up. Like a true scholar, my uncle saw at once that it deserved closer study and ordered a boat to be prepared. He said that I could go with him, but I chose to continue my studies." | 22:05 |
| LjL | https://igppweb.ucsd.edu/~gabi/sio15/lectures/volcanoes/pliny.html | 22:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +100760 cases (now 6.1 million), +78 deaths (now 89331) since 22 hours ago — Cabo Verde: +602 cases (now 39947) since 23 hours ago — Algeria: +382 cases (now 217647), +9 deaths (now 6263) since a day ago — Cuba: +241 cases (now 965243), +18571 tests (now 11.6 million) since a day ago | 22:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Michigan reports record-breaking 25,858 new COVID cases, 338 deaths over last two days → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rribqb/michigan_reports_recordbreaking_25858_new_covid/ | 22:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): From @virusmonologues (Prof Wendy Burgers) and the extraordinary team of South African scientists who have been a lighting it up throughout the pandemic, the deets on this report twitter.com/virusmonologue… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1476300611855413249 | 22:20 |
| sdfgsdfg | maybe we should do a daily check on who's still alive | 22:34 |
| sdfgsdfg | when we wake up | 22:34 |
| sdfgsdfg | good morning everyone :P | 22:34 |
| xx | what's good about it? | 22:37 |
| xandra | good morning <3 | 22:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Tanzania: +2823 cases (now 29306), +3 deaths (now 737) since 14 days ago — Germany: +42382 cases (now 7.1 million), +381 deaths (now 112133) since 23 hours ago — Monaco: +96 cases (now 4985) since a day ago — Netherlands: +16506 cases (now 3.1 million) since 22 hours ago | 22:37 |
| xandra | it's always a good morning when you wake up | 22:37 |
| sdfgsdfg | I was starting to get worried hahah | 22:37 |
| sdfgsdfg | good morning Xandraa <3 yes it is ! | 22:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): One of two new studies out today showing that most of your disease-fighting T cell responses generated from vaccination or from previous Covid infection still recognize the #Omicron variant and should offer protection against serious disease. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1476305580620980225 | 22:39 |
| MerlinMp[m] | Morning? Good evening | 22:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Just published @NEJM Vaccine effectiveness (Pfizer, 2-doses) vs hospitalization was reduced from 93% (CI 90,94) during the Delta wave to 70% (CI 62,76) during the Omicron wave in a large health system in South Africanejm.org/doi/full/10.10… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1476312319940448258 | 23:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Guatemala: +821 cases (now 626675), +3 deaths (now 16102), +8135 tests (now 3.3 million) since 23 hours ago — Kuwait: +399 cases (now 416077), +20982 tests (now 5.9 million) since a day ago — Bahrain: +394 cases (now 280876), +21968 tests (now 8.0 million) since 23 hours ago | 23:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): High asymptomatic cInfections with Omicron compared with other variants. High viral nasal loads in line with upper respiratory tract tropism, rapid spread and the higher testing rate = higher number as seen in DK, FR and PT.medrxiv.org/content/10.110… [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1476318221141790723 | 23:27 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Curacao: +554 cases (now 20199), +1 deaths (now 187), +6720 tests (now 391243) since a day ago — French Guiana: +407 cases (now 48038), +1 deaths (now 339), +2034 tests (now 487548) since a day ago — Mauritania: +169 cases (now 40906), +2086 tests (now 558833) since a day ago — India: +5385 cases (now 34.8 million) since 17 hours ago | 23:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): timesofisrael.com/as-covid-outbr… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1476322680337010693 | 23:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): FDA authorizes 11th at-home Covid test. The availability and adoption of these at-home tests represents a watershed change in regulation that’ll enable a whole category of at home tests for other infectious diseases to follow, changing practice [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1476325469247225857 | 23:55 |
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