libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2022-01-09

TuvixOh well, that study from Nature.com I found that specifically talks about mask misinformation is a nice find, so I'm happy to end up with that as a small positive from this afternoon.00:00
critrheh00:01
BrainstormUpdates for Brazil: +49303 cases, +59 deaths since 23 hours ago — Lebanon: +7547 cases, +17 deaths since a day ago — Kenya: +1667 cases, +8703 tests (19.2% positive) since a day ago — Bahrain: +1424 cases, +22813 tests (6.2% positive) since 23 hours ago00:01
Tuvixde-facto: That uneven spread in the US has me worried looking at the per-month death data here in the US. I should put a few differnet ways to display the data from 2020-2021 (all 24 months) side by side, because the trend comparing last winter's surge, through Delta's surge and after, seems to indicate we're recovering from rises in death less quickly for 3 times in a row now, and impacting more of the00:02
Tuvixyounger populations each time.00:02
TuvixThat's especially concerning given that we have _more_ vaccinated now than in either the original or the winter 2020-21 waves.00:02
TuvixMy mistake, that in the winter or Delta waves (the original wave no one had vaccines as we didn't have them out)00:03
squirrelyou brought it up <Tuvix> squirrel: This is a mild pattern of behavior; back on Dec-22 you tried to argue with me that we should have more data about how fatal Omicron is00:04
squirreland you then keep insisting that this is a question about how deadly omicron is i guess <Tuvix> < squirrel> to this day they can't figure out how deadly omicron is00:04
squirrelwhy are we even having this conversation00:04
xxbecause it's quiet and nobody has anything better to say00:05
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Cyprus reportedly discovers a Covid variant that combines omicron and delta → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzcd6d/cyprus_reportedly_discovers_a_covid_variant_that/00:06
squirrelfun for the whole family00:06
ublxcritr | fwiw, it's a waste of time to...00:06
de-factoTuvix, possibly also depends from which group fatal outcomes were recruited from, e.g. there also may be effects like many deaths in elderly homes (and then awareness, or even depletion to some degree) thereby faster recovery, not sure00:06
ublxshameful way to bookend such a valiant exercise in attempted bridge building00:06
xxplace your bets, are they gonna punish cyprus for discovering it first by blocking all ports and airports?00:07
critrthe bridge collapsed. and bye.00:08
Tuvixde-facto: Yes, that occured to me too; also the impact of the elderly populations (let's call that the 70+ group, give or take) realizing that in addition to vaccination, strict social limitation is really in their best interest.00:09
de-factoDeltacron = Delta + Omicron discovered by Leondios Kostrikis00:17
de-factohmm does not sound good00:17
trbpdeltacron?00:17
TuvixDeaths broken down & plotted by age each month, from CDC data: https://imgur.com/a/pjG7Muh00:17
trbpand that from a supposedly greek alphabet knowing person?00:17
TuvixLonger, slower recoverys seems to be the trend at least for the last 3 major death peaks, and a slow but gradual trend of more death in younger age-groups proportional to that month's death totals.00:18
xxjust sell the rights to name the variants already, I want to name one00:18
xxwe sell the rights to name hurricanes already00:18
xxand asteroids00:18
xxand planets/stars probably00:19
de-factoTuvix, well you would have to compare it to infections somehow, e.g. estimate IFR (not to easily derived from CFR) as the proportion of unknown infections may change with containment efforts and vaccinations etc00:30
de-factoits quite hard to do i guess00:30
TuvixYea, and that unknown slop gets worse with Omicron simply due to its spread and seemingly higher rate of low or asymptomatic spread.00:31
TuvixThe fact that the reported case-count is off the chart says a lot, even knowing that is a vast undercount.00:31
de-factovery much so yeah00:31
Timvdede-facto: uh, what? "deltacron" doesn't make sense, there is no merging of variants00:33
de-factoafaik covs are known to have the ability for recombination of two variants of it infect the same cell at the same time00:33
TuvixCDC death incidence rate (7-day averages) has been ticking up daily since Christmas.00:33
TimvdeSeriously?00:33
de-factonot very likely but surely not impossible00:33
TimvdeI never heard of anything like that (but then again, I'm not a virologist or even a biologist)00:34
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: Deadly Omicron should not be called mild, warns WHO → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzd22w/covid_deadly_omicron_should_not_be_called_mild/00:34
TimvdeThat sounds awful00:34
de-factoafaik it has to do with its repair mechanisms or such00:34
TuvixHmm, I was reading a (very!) short summary of that earlier this week; that's the so-called "proofreading" ability of the virus, right?00:35
de-facto.title https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/plenty-of-evidence-for-recombination-in-sars-cov-2-6915600:35
Brainstormde-facto: From www.the-scientist.com: Plenty of Evidence for Recombination in SARS-CoV-2 | The Scientist Magazine®00:35
Timvdede-facto: so basically omicron came too early, while the world was still in a delta wave, making this much more likely to happen00:37
TuvixHmm, if true that it's a factor of how much both are spreading, that's not great for places that never really got Delta "under control" relatively speaking.00:38
de-factowell idk, it may also have something to do with its sero-evasive variants, e.g. that it could replicate up to significant amounts in a host that already is in process of raising antibodies against Delta? not sure00:39
de-facto*with its sero-evasive capabilities00:39
de-factoa more severe Omicron like mutant is NOT really what we need right now00:40
TuvixAlthough delta-specific antibodies don't appear, at least based on what preliminary data we seem to have, nearly as effective against Omicron.00:40
de-factoexactly00:40
TuvixThough with the antigenic drift, I'm not sure anything could stop a co-infection, similar to the covid+flu we've seen some reports of now.00:40
de-factoi my opinion the only way we would have a chance of regaining control would be to prevent the spread of mutants by airplane traveling00:41
TuvixI hope governments and vaccine producers are taking that drift problem seriously. If we do end up needing to update vaccines, I'd hope that process is already being considered seriously.00:41
de-factothat way we would gain a very significant time advantage over the antigenic drift and MAY have a chance to control incidence again00:42
TuvixI just don't see that happening unless this gets much worse, as in an order of magnitude worse.00:43
TuvixSome places are trying that locally, like Hong Kong, but it's quite invasive since they still let you travel there, just have serious implications if you test positive on arrival.00:43
de-factoright now, we obviously are completely overwhelmed by the speed this hydra grows new heads in form of an onslaught of new mutants00:43
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Mild SARS-CoV-2 infection in rhesus macaques is associated with viral control prior to antigen-specific T cell responses in tissues → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rzd2wa/mild_sarscov2_infection_in_rhesus_macaques_is/00:43
de-factowe barely recovered from Alpha, then came Delta, now we have Omicron and already new mutants on the horizon00:44
de-factoif anyone anywhere on the world can infect everyone its a lost game from the start on imho00:45
TuvixThe rub being the majority of the "travel restrictions" have huge exception cutouts. Like for residents of the country imposing them to be able to come back with very relaxed requirements, if any.00:45
TuvixPlaces like Australia have perhaps had some of the strictest in the modern world (part of why they're so upset at a pro-sports player flaunting their country's rules)00:46
de-factointercontinental traveling without quarantine should not be possible at all in my opinion00:46
de-factoas long as that is possible this pandemic will continue, why would it not do that? its what we see now in a constantly repeating pattern for 2 years00:47
TuvixYea, and I'd argue that's what allowed Australia for example to have seeming success early on in the pandemic. But travel is lax enough now, and Omicron such a good spreader it seems their good luck hasn't lasted as they've relaxed regulation.00:47
de-factolook at AU now, after they opened in comparison to before they opened00:48
de-factoit was a horrible mistake for them to do that, now they have the consequences00:48
TuvixI suspect they're going to experience a similar problem we did here in the US: once you open things up, short of *prior* and *clear* expectations for when you re-impose such restrictions, the public doesn't want it.00:49
de-factoit severely limits the freedom, health and economic growth that they are looking at an almost vertical increase of Omicron now, and it will be extremely hard to get this pathogen out of their population and wildlife again00:49
TuvixIt's so bad here in the US that governments at state levels have added various laws specifically to prevent mitigations like masks or county/city level restrictions (eg: vaccines)00:49
TimvdeOh yikes, that Australia graph is crazy00:50
TuvixSometimes that's state-wide, sometime's it's a ban on masks in classrooms, but the meaning is clear: "we don't want to stop the spread and we're willing to put laws in place to make sure you can't"00:50
de-factoit was a decision with consequences beyond any governments legislature period, but oh well00:50
TimvdeYea, it's at a point of no return00:50
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: The number of New York State hospitals that must cancel elective surgeries grows to 40. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzdgif/the_number_of_new_york_state_hospitals_that_must/00:53
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Moderna donates 2.7 million vaccine doses to Mexico as COVID cases surge → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzdno5/moderna_donates_27_million_vaccine_doses_to/01:02
BrainstormUpdates for Argentina: +101689 cases, +37 deaths, +171073 tests (59.4% positive) since 23 hours ago — Colombia: +31170 cases, +38 deaths, +72514 tests (43.0% positive) since 23 hours ago — Madagascar: +1667 cases, +50 deaths, +34163 tests (4.9% positive) since 3 days ago — Burkina Faso: +482 cases since a day ago01:04
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: China targets 2023-2025 for recovery in international air travel → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzdv1r/china_targets_20232025_for_recovery_in/01:12
xxwell I hope the air travel never recovers to the levels it was before01:14
sdfgsdfgaustralia graph is only crazy because we started including RAT tests in our counts01:24
sdfgsdfgand it makes more than half of the cases in melb, which it started as trial01:25
sdfgsdfgwe also have tons of drive-thru, free PCR testing centers01:25
sdfgsdfgeverything is free ! people are testing as a hobby and triggering false positives too perhaps01:25
sdfgsdfgthe graph does look crazy by the way.... youre right :D01:27
TuvixThe rate of antigen false-positives is much, much lower than it's rate of false-negatives, so that wouldn't impact any incidence figures as extrapolated out to the population as a whole.01:27
TuvixPCR tests are far more reliable too, where they're available. In some parts of the world, lab capacity is limiting how many are practical for some situations.01:28
xxTuvix: wasn't it the other way round, that there are a lot more false positives and very few false negatives for the antigen tests?01:29
TuvixNo, if the antigen tests reports positive, you're almost surely positive and contagious, but if it reads negative, there's still a chance you're actually positive. That's especially true for the at-home kits being used in many countries now.01:30
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: COVID infections in Japan exceed 8,000 → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rze6xr/covid_infections_in_japan_exceed_8000/01:31
Tuvixxx: Refernce for you: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/resources/antigen-tests-guidelines.html (and it cites additional reference if you want to go digging for detailed information.)01:32
TuvixAn exerpt: "The sensitivity of antigen tests varies but is generally lower than most laboratory-based NAATs. The antigen level in specimens collected either before symptom onset, or late in the course of infection, may be below the tests’ limit of detection. This may result in a negative antigen test result, while a more sensitive test, such as most NAATs, may return a positive result."01:32
sdfgsdfgit's accurage ranges between 85-95% but it also depends on which stage of covid you took it01:33
sdfgsdfgif it's first day it's going to be maybe 90% false01:33
TuvixFor Omicron, that value is possibly much lower, around 65% or so.01:33
TuvixThere is a lot of variation depending on when you test, and guidance I've heard is to time the test appropriately (such as 2 to 3 days after a suspected exposure or close-contact) and test twice, 24-hours apart.01:34
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Look familiar? How rapid tests changed the pandemic: Lateral flow tests are now part of UK life, with billions spent on test kits. Has it been worth it? → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-5989525801:40
LjLTuvix, PCR tests are effectively limited here now, my cousin will have her response on the 13th (she got tested on the 8th) and it's not getting better01:40
LjLthe vast majority of our registered tests are currently antigen tests, and even those have a ridiculously high positive rate now, it touched 16% (PCR is more like 30%)01:41
LjLit's getting totally out of hand01:41
TimvdeLjL: 5 days?! That's effectively useless01:42
LjLTimvde, well she already knows she's positive, she just needs a negative test to the the quarantine, but... yeah01:43
LjLwhen we do 1 million tests a day and the UK is doing 4 million, and the two countries are similar sized, clearly one of them is not doing great01:43
LjL(those are totals, i don't know how many PCRs the UK does)01:44
TimvdeShould've left the EU *rolls eyes*01:46
sdfgsdfg"Covid hospitalisations in Omicron hotspot London fell 31 per cent to 310 on January 6, the latest date regional data is available for. Experts hope nationwide numbers will continue to follow London's trajectory of rapidly falling cases and now hospitalisations."01:48
sdfgsdfgI highly doubt that it will be like SA but lets see01:49
LjLwhat's the prevalence in London at this point though?01:49
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Evidence for Biological Age Acceleration and Telomere Shortening in COVID-19 Survivors → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzeo3n/evidence_for_biological_age_acceleration_and/01:49
sdfgsdfghttps://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/01/08/16/52695209-0-image-a-15_1641660988015.jpg01:50
LjLi know there is a downtrend01:50
sdfgsdfgit could be a dead cat bounce if you ask me01:50
sdfgsdfgnot sur about the prevalence01:51
LjLwell i don't know, i think many times we've said "this time everyone will get it", and then they didn't, and the wave subsided01:51
LjLso i won't try to make predictions this time01:51
LjLi just know that in the US it's starting to affect services just because so many people are quarantined, and in Italy too01:51
sdfgsdfgexacty same in australia this time we are in perfect sync01:52
BrainstormUpdates for Australia: +49170 cases, +24 deaths since 22 hours ago — Uruguay: +6374 cases, +1 deaths, +27499 tests (23.2% positive) since 23 hours ago — Norway: +5288 cases since 23 hours ago — Slovakia: +3624 cases since 23 hours ago02:06
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Florida added almost 400,000 new COVID-19 cases this week → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzezmg/florida_added_almost_400000_new_covid19_cases/02:08
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Preparing for a Post Pandemic (But not post COVID) World → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzf8ti/preparing_for_a_post_pandemic_but_not_post_covid/02:18
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Monoclonal antibody treatments dry up in Utah → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzfi1x/monoclonal_antibody_treatments_dry_up_in_utah/02:27
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Prevalence, characteristics, and predictors of Long COVID among diagnosed cases of COVID-19 → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rzfuev/prevalence_characteristics_and_predictors_of_long/02:55
BrainstormUpdates for South Korea: +3376 cases, +51 deaths since 23 hours ago — Guyana: +1016 cases, +1 deaths, +4213 tests (24.1% positive) since a day ago — Curacao: +963 cases, +1 deaths, +3589 tests (26.8% positive) since 22 hours ago — Barbados: +495 cases, +1 deaths, +2475 tests (20.0% positive) since a day ago03:02
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Germany needs jabs, not omicron's 'dirty vaccination' — health minister. Health Minister Karl Lauterbach has said it's "naive" to think the omicron variant will be the end of the pandemic. He warned that new COVID-19 mutations were still possible. → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzg8c6/germany_needs_jabs_not_omicrons_dirty_vaccination/03:05
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Anchorage School District shortens COVID-19 isolation to 5 days for students and staff, with caveats → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzga8d/anchorage_school_district_shortens_covid19/03:14
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Taiwan confirms 2 new domestic COVID cases related to airport → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzgg0d/taiwan_confirms_2_new_domestic_covid_cases/03:24
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: UK COVID-19 death toll exceeds 150,000 after Omicron surge → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzh14g/uk_covid19_death_toll_exceeds_150000_after/03:42
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: PolitiFact - Fact-checking Sotomayor on kids with severe COVID-19 → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzh3ck/politifact_factchecking_sotomayor_on_kids_with/03:52
BrainstormUpdates for Mexico: +30671 cases, +202 deaths, +63276 tests (48.5% positive) since a day ago — Australia: +76551 cases, +21 deaths, +254670 tests (18.4% positive) since 21 hours ago — Thailand: +8511 cases, +12 deaths since a day ago — Netherlands: +29653 cases, +9 deaths since 23 hours ago04:11
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New 'Deltacron' coronavirus variant discovered in Cyprus → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzi6j0/new_deltacron_coronavirus_variant_discovered_in/04:39
BrainstormUpdates for Bolivia: +19013 cases, +69 deaths since a day ago — Panama: +4804 cases, +5 deaths since a day ago — China: +186 cases since 23 hours ago05:07
sdfgsdfg"in those who recovered from long covid symptoms - average number of symptoms peaked at week 2. And in those who did not recover in 90 days (and lasted usually more than 9 months) the average number of symptoms peaked at month 2 with less decline over time."  this lancet research on long covid from more recent months had about 3 to 4 thousand people mostly women, more young people, and the group consists of mostly mild case survivors.05:09
sdfgsdfglets live with covid05:11
finely[m]<Timvde> "Oh yikes, that Australia graph..." <- Its much worse than that. PCR testing system is saturated, they are turning away most people. Rapid tests are basically unavailable and even if you find one, a positive RAT is not recorded in the official case numbers for the state with the worst spread. Real case numbers are conservatively 4-5 times the official figure.05:11
LjLidiocy... https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzi6j0/new_deltacron_coronavirus_variant_discovered_in/hrvecj0/?context=305:14
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China Reports Nation’s First Community Spread of Omicron Variant → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rziszj/china_reports_nations_first_community_spread_of/05:17
zadhow long till CDC doesn't recommend testing?05:17
LjL%title https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/147991033773029377405:19
BrainstormLjL: From twitter.com: Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu): "Small update: the Cypriot 'Deltacron' sequences reported by several large media outlets look to be quite clearly contamination - they do not cluster on a phylogenetic tree [...]05:19
LjLbut, This nobody twitter users post keeps being spread. Just stop. You have been reported05:21
LjLI'll listen to the actual scientists on the ground before a twitter nobody05:21
LjLthis is what a person who posted that Peacock tweet on Reddit got as a reply05:21
LjLtotal chilling effect by now05:21
LjLPeacock is a reasonable, reputable virologist worth following, but now someone can just cry MISINFORMATION! on anything that *sounds* suspicious, report the post, and get it taken down.05:22
zad202205:32
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine protects children against rare COVID-19 complication - CDC → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzj1sc/pfizerbiontech_vaccine_protects_children_against/05:35
BrainstormNew from ##covid-19 Zotero group: A Pandemic Era: Type Journal Article Author The Lancet Planetary Health URL https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30305-3/fulltext Volume 5 Issue 1 Pages e1 Publication The Lancet Planetary Health ISSN 2542-5196 Date 2021-01-01 Extra PMID: 33421401 [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/ETSQ3GC305:45
BrainstormUpdates for Peru: +16135 cases, +38 deaths, +96410 tests (16.7% positive) since 23 hours ago — India: +159632 cases, +327 deaths, +1563566 tests (0.8% positive) since 23 hours ago — Pakistan: +1572 cases, +7 deaths, +49658 tests (3.2% positive) since 23 hours ago — Mongolia: +1010 cases, +2 deaths since 23 hours ago06:03
TuvixHmm, I don't follow reddit at all (minus the bot posts I find potentially useful only to pull up the actual source it has cited) but that politifact was an odd choice to moderate off the sub. It's correct to point out Sotomayor's claims as not corret, but the details supplied also, correctly, indicate that hospitilizations with COVID are on the rise in the 0-4 range.06:09
LjLTuvix, rule 8 in particular doesn't seem to apply06:13
TuvixAlso silly, apparently it was removed according to that sub's rule that the content has to be about covid-19. And the referenced page *is* about that. This is why I don't put faith in reddit.06:13
TuvixYea.06:13
LjLTuvix, i'd say something except i appear to be shadowbanned on that sub :P06:13
LjLso i won't say something06:13
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Cutting self-isolation to five days would be helpful says Nadhim Zahawi → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-5992570206:13
LjLnothing that will be seen at least06:13
TuvixYea, this reads to me a bit of an "only science our admins agree with" kind of sub, but again, I'm just confused about this, so it may or may not be a trend on that sub.06:14
LjLTuvix, at least, the bot tends to post them before they get deleted, in a bit of a random way maybe, but still :P06:14
TuvixI take a bit of issue with going after information you may not "like" when it appears (though I didn't vet every fact in that politifact page personally) all correct.06:14
LjLi find reddit useful, anyway, aside from using it to vent by means of argument06:15
LjLbecause often there is some comment that gives away some key information about what's being posted06:15
LjLit may be stuff that's self-evident when reading the article but drawing your attention there helps06:16
TuvixThey burred some of the info about the rising hospitalization rate in children which I suspect careless readers would have missed, but that's on the reader, not the article.06:16
TuvixYea, and reddit _is_ nice for a summary or a kind poster quoting stuff behind a pay-wall.06:16
TuvixI find anywhere from 50-98% of comments to be trash though :P06:16
TuvixI don't sign in to reddit specifically so I'm not tempted to downvote them all!06:17
LjLnothing inherently wrong with downvoting them all, though :P06:19
de-factoless work upvoting minorities06:20
LjLalso there's a ton of comments that deserve reporting06:22
TuvixThe relative fatality information is probably going to be more revealing in the younger age-groups anyway. Going by US-data that the Justice was referring to, we certainly saw a spike during the Delta wave to about 5x from what the early 2021 baseline was.06:22
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Dozens of Hong Kong officials in Covid quarantine after birthday party → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzjyha/dozens_of_hong_kong_officials_in_covid_quarantine/06:22
Tuvix0-17 years were at/below 50/month nation-wide, but spiked to just shy of 250 for Aug/Sept.06:22
TuvixWe're now back under 50 in Dec, but it'll be interesting to watch the trends these next 2 to 4 months.06:23
TuvixSimilar recovery in the Aug-Dec timeline as the 18-29 year olds too (that group didn't _quite_ recovery to pre-delta levels, but close)06:23
sdfgsdfgsouth africa's peak was about 30 thousand I think. Now it's at least 10k and probably rising, looks like it might swing around there 10k, 15k, about half the peak06:24
TuvixNotably worse recovery for all age groups 30 and over though :\06:24
Tuvix30-39 specifically is a bit shy of twice the death rate pre-delta, and that's after the "decline" through end of 2021. Early data so far this month seems to indicate an upward trend in deaths again: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases_7daydeathsper100k06:25
TuvixThe yellow death incidence (nation-wide, all ages) seems to be on a sharp uptick, although we need more data to see if this is an artifact or a full on trend.06:26
TuvixNov-28 had a similar rise, but I suspect this is more of a problem given the case-rates and rising hospital stress that's been widely reported :\06:26
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: After U.S. figure skaters tested positive, new worries arise for the Winter Olympics. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzk1an/after_us_figure_skaters_tested_positive_new/06:32
DreddHmm, what's this about a deltacron variant?06:49
mrdatahuh06:49
mrdatadiscovered in cyprus, according to the news06:50
mrdatahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-08/cyprus-finds-covid-19-infections-that-combine-delta-and-omicron06:56
mrdataothers are calling it delmicron? or is this two recombination events?06:58
mrdatahttps://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rv012l/what_is_delmicron_and_why_is_it_different_from/07:00
mrdatahttps://edtimes.in/what-is-delmicron-and-why-is-it-different-from-omicron/07:01
Tuvixmrdata: Possibly contamination in the lab, although recombinations are something to keep an eye on for sure: https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/147991033773029377407:05
mrdatawhy do people jump directly to 'in the lab'?07:06
mrdataorganisms of this size are highly promiscuous07:06
TuvixBecause it's quite common.07:06
mrdataget infected with both strains; that might be all it takes for horizontal gene transfer07:06
TuvixIt takes a bit more than that; I have a scientific paper in my bookmarks if you'd like to know more.07:07
mrdatasure07:07
mrdataif it's contamination, then it isnt a real strain; can different labs then please sequence and upload their stuff?07:08
TuvixOh, this is an opinion piece, but it has references to studies it talks about if you want a lot more science-focused publications: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/plenty-of-evidence-for-recombination-in-sars-cov-2-6915607:08
mrdatai'll muddle thru, thanks07:09
TuvixAnd yes, if it's a mistake in 1 lab, it'll be an isolated (but widely discussed on social media for days/weeks anyway.) If it's legit, the sample will be re-sourced and confirmed.07:09
BrainstormUpdates for England, United Kingdom: +124549 cases, +282 deaths since a day ago — New York, United States: +81388 cases since a day ago — Lombardy, Italy: +48808 cases, +20 deaths since a day ago — Texas, United States: +49690 cases, +96 deaths since a day ago07:10
mrdata"The authors analyzed viral sequencing data and, out of about 279,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected, 16 showed evidence of recombination—mostly between the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) and B.1.177 variants—based on the mosaicism of their genomes."07:25
mrdataseems frequent enough07:25
xxTuvix: if it's legitimate, it will be spreading like crazy anyway07:25
TuvixRight, but the question is now how likely is it to actually spread on top of that. None of those varients are out now in notable numbers.07:25
TuvixYes, exactly my point.07:25
TuvixThere have almost certainly been both mutations and recombinations, but if it's a one-off that doesn't end up spreading significantly, it won't outpace the domainant strains (currently Delta & Omicron) enough to matter.07:26
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: China's Tianjin testing all residents after omicron found | AP News → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzl25b/chinas_tianjin_testing_all_residents_after/07:28
mrdataany new combo would spread either faster or slower; if usually slower, then it gets outcompeted; only if faster would it begin to spread like crazy07:28
TuvixOr something inbeween; maybe a new varient is very weak against the vaccines and is wiped out by a largely-vaccinated population, or spreads in a poorly-vaccinated one.07:29
TuvixThe absolute worst-case situation would be a mutant (or recombination) that both spreads better and is more deadly, plus has significant immune-escape and antigen-escape.07:30
xxis a sense of impending doom a symptom of corona?07:30
TuvixBest case has surely already happend a bunch, where it mutates, is able to spread, but not effectively.07:30
Tuvix(well, no, best case is it can't spread at all, but when we probably don't know about it)07:31
TuvixRecombinations are a bigger wild card simply because "more" can change in strains between them; with my somewhat limited lab understanding of the process, what has people pausing about this Delta+Omicron news is that the changes are so substantial to suggest samples got mixed together instead of it being a naturally-occurring combination of the two.07:32
TuvixIn other words, it's a warning sign if "too much" has changed. A bit like when a bad tornado hits a town, houses that were separate and never "combined" may be muddied all together in a pile of rubble.07:33
TuvixIf you'd never seen the original houses, you might conclude that it was all one big duplex or something, or an add-on. Similar markers are used to evaluate the genome of living cells.07:34
BrainstormUpdates for Czechia: +3975 cases, +32 deaths since 23 hours ago — Uzbekistan: +369 cases, +2 deaths since 23 hours ago — Kyrgyzstan: +190 cases, +2 deaths since 15 hours ago — Comoros: +40 cases since 20 hours ago08:00
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Omicron in kids leading to a new but familiar illness: croup → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzlwxx/omicron_in_kids_leading_to_a_new_but_familiar/08:24
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: India : Over 20 million teens in 15-18 age group vaccinated with first dose in 5 days → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzm0zd/india_over_20_million_teens_in_1518_age_group/08:33
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Cyprus reportedly discovers a Covid variant that combines omicron and delta → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzm2gb/cyprus_reportedly_discovers_a_covid_variant_that/09:02
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: The Sexual Long COVID (SLC): Erectile Dysfunction as a Biomarker of Systemic Complications for COVID-19 Long Haulers → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rzmshv/the_sexual_long_covid_slc_erectile_dysfunction_as/09:21
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: American children aged under five years behind spike in COVID-19 hospital admissions → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzn4qw/american_children_aged_under_five_years_behind/09:49
BrainstormUpdates for Maharashtra, India: +41434 cases, +13 deaths since a day ago — Delhi, India: +20181 cases, +7 deaths since a day ago — West Bengal, India: +18802 cases, +19 deaths since a day ago — Tamil Nadu, India: +10978 cases, +10 deaths since a day ago10:11
sdfgsdfgerectile dysfunction as a biomarker for long covid ?10:27
sdfgsdfgthis is fucking terrifying lmao10:27
sdfgsdfgit's interesting... the studies on prevalence of long-covid in children and young people10:36
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: [Spain] Four Spanish regions set new highs for daily coronavirus cases → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzns46/spain_four_spanish_regions_set_new_highs_for/10:36
sdfgsdfgdata we had from delta wasn't enough I guess10:36
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID: new 'Deltacron' coronavirus variant discovered in Cyprus → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzo4at/covid_new_deltacron_coronavirus_variant/10:55
ArsaneritWould it be entirely irresponsible to go on an international vacation within Europe within the next 6 weeks, or is the risk acceptable for triply vaccinated healthy young adults?10:57
sdfgsdfgI travelled internationally as an unvaxxed, during peak times, with special gov exception10:59
sdfgsdfgplanes have really, really safe air conditioning systems10:59
sdfgsdfgpushing out air from top of individual seats, and sucking it from the bottom10:59
ArsaneritI don't travel by plane.10:59
sdfgsdfgadd the gap between seats, it's way safer than train etc10:59
ArsaneritCases seem low in Romania.  Everybody there is either dead or recovered?11:00
sdfgsdfgwhere are you travelling from11:00
ArsaneritGermany.11:00
ublxwho thought when they woke up this century that they'd think thoughts like "Hmm everyone seems to be dead or immune in that region, I guess it's safe to go there"11:01
ArsaneritIn October COVID death rates in Romania were 10× higher than UK and 20× higher than Germany.  https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom;France;Germany;Italy;Spain;Romania;Denmark&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&leftTrim=650&legacy=no11:03
ArsaneritI don't feel too worried about my own safety, being young and boostered.11:03
ArsaneritWe're unlikely to get symptoms if we get infected.11:03
sdfgsdfgyou also have no reason to contract the virus, regardless of your vaccination status - you still have about 50% chance of developing long covid11:03
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Germany Adds 39 World Countries to List of High-Risk Areas, Removes Ukraine → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzo5zv/germany_adds_39_world_countries_to_list_of/11:04
Arsaneritsdfgsdfg: 50%?  Source?11:05
sdfgsdfgyes, sharing the ref 1 sec11:05
ArsaneritNumbers quoted at https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/long-covid-chronic-fatigue-syndrome are much lower, in particular for vaccinated people11:05
Arsanerit"Assuming this difference continues over time, it might mean that vaccines reduce your chances of catching CFS from COVID by ~75-90% (50% reduction in likelihood of infection, and 50-80% reduction in long-term symptoms after a breakthrough infection). If they were 2-3% without vaccines, the odds of developing CFS with a vaccine become ~0.2-0.75%."11:06
Arsaneritsdfgsdfg: Do you mean 50% chance, or 50% smaller chance compared to unvaccinated?11:06
sdfgsdfg50% smaller chance compared to unvaccinated, yes11:07
BrainstormUpdates for Philippines: +28572 cases, +15 deaths since a day ago — Israel: +11093 cases since 15 hours ago — Lithuania: +2533 cases, +19 deaths, +13613 tests (18.6% positive) since a day ago — Armenia: +142 cases, +2 deaths, +4875 tests (2.9% positive) since a day ago11:07
ArsaneritAh, that is consistent with what I know, but I wouldn't describe that as 50% chance of developing long covid.11:08
ublxdriving or taking the train, Arsanerit?11:10
sdfgsdfgit's from this article https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03495-2#ref-CR111:10
sdfgsdfg"But for those who do experience a breakthrough infection, studies suggest that vaccination might only halve the risk of long COVID — or have no effect on it at all"11:10
sdfgsdfgthe line which refers to studies https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.26.21265508 and https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00460-6/fulltext11:10
Arsaneritublx: Train.11:10
Arsaneritsdfgsdfg: Ok, right.11:11
sdfgsdfgand other studies I referred from earlier today, with healthy kids and young vaccinated people surveyed, they only found out when their symptoms started increasing at 2 month mark (mostly)11:13
ublxcurious about quarantine isolation requirements at your destination. wouldn't that take a good bite out of any vacation? also curious whether hotels are actually open at your intended destination11:13
Arsaneritsdfgsdfg: Is that P(long COVID|COVID) or P(long COVID|coronavirus) though?  Do they mean the risk of long COVID is reduced by 50% for those who get symptomatic despite vaccination, or for those who get infected (with or without symptoms) despite vaccination?11:14
Arsaneritublx: no such requirements for boostered people11:14
ArsaneritAnd we wouldn't stay in a hotel but in a rural vacation home.11:14
ArsaneritSelf-catering hiking vacation.11:14
ublxoh. shame not to drive then. drive to and from self-catering sounds like a very low exposure setup11:15
ArsaneritI don't want to drive 2300 km11:15
ublxpfff, that's one good podcast series11:16
ArsaneritIt's 3 days to drive each way and my wife doesn't have a license.11:18
sdfgsdfgI dont think you'll be safe on a 2300 km train ride11:19
sdfgsdfgat peak time of delta and omicron11:19
sdfgsdfgimagine regretting it11:20
ArsaneritWe are boostered and would be wearing FFP2 masks11:20
ublxi've never been on such a train ride. would you stay on the train that entire time?11:21
sdfgsdfgthat does give you a good safety though, yes11:21
Arsaneritublx: no, it's 6 trains in total I think11:21
sdfgsdfgI don't know, tough choice11:21
Arsaneritlocal train, then Frankfurt - Strasbourg, Strasbourg - Lyon, Lyon - Barcelona (overnight stay), Barcelona - Madrid, Madrid - Málaga (car rental)11:22
sdfgsdfgwish I could go to barcelona =/11:22
ArsaneritI could wait for April, situation likely better then, but also weather at destination too hot by then11:22
Arsaneritwe can postpone for next winter but scenario is probably going to be the same11:23
ublxwhy would you take a train for that? exposure time would surely be much smaller by plane. and cheaper too, surely?11:23
sdfgsdfglol, probably yes. Pandemic is full of plot twists11:23
Arsaneritublx: I enjoy the train more than the plane, and the climate impact of the train is much lower.11:24
ublxFFP2/3 plus eye protection in plane vs great deal of fussing about changing trains and intermediate hotel stays11:24
ublxhmm11:24
Arsaneriteye protection?11:24
ublxwell11:24
sdfgsdfgyou mean the face shield11:24
ArsaneritDoes that actually do anything?11:24
sdfgsdfgcovid's secondary way of entry is from the eyes11:25
ArsaneritI didn't know it could enter through the eyes.11:25
ublxthat's been my understanding/assumption but i don't have source to hand11:25
ArsaneritI thought face shields were useless.11:25
ublx2300km with your eyes in covid laden enclosed-space atmosphere11:26
ublxi'd refresh my understanding of possible eye route if i was contemplating such a trip11:26
Arsaneritplane is bad for the environment11:26
ublxworse than the concatenating effects of covid transmission?11:27
sdfgsdfgI mean... I wouldn't die just to protect the nature :P11:27
sdfgsdfgeven though it's a tiny tiny risk11:28
ublxquick yoink from google: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00040-9/fulltext11:30
ublxfrom which: "A large study showed that 19% of health-care workers became infected, despite wearing three-layered surgical masks, gloves, and shoe covers and using alcohol rub. After the introduction of face shields, no worker was infected."11:31
ArsaneritInteresting.11:31
ublxjust glancing at that article, but it seems unlikely that the study referred to is considering omicron11:32
ArsaneritWith a date of February 2021, very unlikely.11:32
ArsaneritProbably not even Delta.11:32
ArsaneritShoe covers??11:33
ublxif the study is harking back to the very earlier days of covid, the idea of fomite transmission might have loomed large among uncertainties11:35
ArsaneritI'm not too worried about ourselves getting infected as we're unlikely to get sick, but I'm wondering if it's selfish to travel for non-essential purposes right now.11:35
sdfgsdfgI don't think the majority takes it serious anymore11:39
sdfgsdfgI wouldn't say it's selfish, but there are a lot of selfish people out there who don't even quarantine after getting sick11:40
ublxi can think of one of your countrymen who could serve as the de facto opposition to the idea, should you wish to ask him11:41
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: UK: Nadhim Zahawi denies there is plan to end free lateral flow Covid tests → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzotfj/uk_nadhim_zahawi_denies_there_is_plan_to_end_free/11:42
ArsaneritHospitalisation and ICU rates remain low in Spain, one of the most vaccinated countries in the world.11:42
ArsaneritOTOH case rates are very high there right now.11:43
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK Covid-19 death toll exceeds 150,000 after Omicron surge → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzozdt/uk_covid19_death_toll_exceeds_150000_after/11:51
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Ikea slashes sick leave pay unvaccinated UK staff: The UK arm of the budget furniture giant has taken a strong stance against staff who refuse to get jabbed against coronavirus as cases there skyrocket. → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzp2ve/ikea_slashes_sick_leave_pay_unvaccinated_uk_staff/12:00
BrainstormUpdates for Russia: +16246 cases, +763 deaths since a day ago — Poland: +11107 cases, +22 deaths, +152415 tests (7.3% positive) since a day ago — Ukraine: +2810 cases, +75 deaths since a day ago — Estonia: +1278 cases, +1 deaths, +7880 tests (16.2% positive) since a day ago12:09
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: mRNA-1273 vaccine-induced antibodies maintain Fc-effector functions across SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/rzp3mr/mrna1273_vaccineinduced_antibodies_maintain/12:10
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Omikron burdens clinics - Great Britain fights against collapse → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzpc04/omikron_burdens_clinics_great_britain_fights/12:19
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Hospital boss admits they may lose staff over compulsory vaccines → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-5992730612:57
BrainstormUpdates for Austria: +10291 cases, +4 deaths, +446699 tests (2.3% positive) since a day ago — Saudi Arabia: +3460 cases, +1 deaths since a day ago — Slovenia: +3347 cases, +5 deaths, +7421 tests (45.1% positive) since a day ago — UAE: +2759 cases, +1 deaths, +469401 tests (0.6% positive) since 22 hours ago12:59
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Global COVID Cases For 09JAN22: US RO Estimate, Case Count & Charts: Information thru: 08JAN22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/rzqjn5/global_covid_cases_for_09jan22/13:25
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Tens of thousands protest COVID vaccine pass across France → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzqr80/tens_of_thousands_protest_covid_vaccine_pass/13:54
Arsaneritat least in the next there weeks we won't go13:57
BrainstormUpdates for Romania: +4712 cases, +14 deaths, +41112 tests (11.5% positive) since a day ago — Latvia: +1010 cases, +8 deaths, +7822 tests (12.9% positive) since a day ago — Nepal: +841 cases, +2 deaths since a day ago — Laos: +924 cases, +7 deaths since 11 hours ago14:02
Arsanerit%cases Romania14:02
BrainstormArsanerit: Romania has had 1.8 million confirmed cases (9.5% of all people) and 59011 deaths (3.2% of cases; 1 in 329 people) as of 18 seconds ago. 17.5 million tests were done (10.5% positive). 7.9 million were vaccinated (40.9%). +4712 cases, +14 deaths, +41112 tests since a day ago. See https://datelazi.ro/14:02
sdfgsdfgthats way better at least you'll know if we'll be in this wave forever or not :P14:02
Arsaneritif the wave grows fast then imho it can't last too long14:02
Arsaneritbut we'll see14:03
de-factoif Omicron is seroevasive it may need to immunize larger parts of population in order to self-limiting to kick in compared to other variants that may have had more background immunity by predecessors14:08
de-factoalso it may come in several waves, each local to a certain densely connected cohort in population14:10
de-factothat is if a wave outruns itself inside such a densely connected cohort prior to enough diffusion intruding the next densely connected cohort14:11
de-factosort of like distinct cluster spreads inside cohorts, possibly new dynamics due to Omicrons crazy fast speed of spread14:12
de-factobut yeah we will see14:12
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: China's Tianjin begins city-wide testing after at least two local Omicron cases detected → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzr216/chinas_tianjin_begins_citywide_testing_after_at/14:13
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Cyprus scientists discover new ‘deltacron’ COVID-19 strain → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzrfcj/cyprus_scientists_discover_new_deltacron_covid19/14:32
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Canada Annual influenza report: no community circulation of influenza occurred in 2020-2021 season → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzroxa/canada_annual_influenza_report_no_community/14:51
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: From Texas to India, a patent-free Covid vaccine looks to bridge equity gaps → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzrz46/from_texas_to_india_a_patentfree_covid_vaccine/15:00
BrainstormUpdates for Ireland: +21384 cases since 23 hours ago — Bangladesh: +1491 cases, +3 deaths, +21980 tests (6.8% positive) since a day ago — Namibia: +433 cases, +19 deaths, +2702 tests (16.0% positive) since 20 hours ago — Bhutan: +21 cases, +2210 tests (1.0% positive) since 23 hours ago15:04
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Cyprus identifies combined 'Deltacron' COVID strain, but says unlikely to spread far → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzsd67/cyprus_identifies_combined_deltacron_covid_strain/15:19
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Huge percentage of COVID hospitalizations in New York apparently not due to COVID | 08JAN22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/rzsthx/huge_percentage_of_covid_hospitalizations_in_new/15:28
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Stay home or work sick? Omicron poses a conundrum → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzt13s/stay_home_or_work_sick_omicron_poses_a_conundrum/15:57
BrainstormUpdates for Croatia: +7333 cases, +37 deaths, +16597 tests (44.2% positive) since a day ago — Iran: +1480 cases, +31 deaths since a day ago — Iraq: +734 cases, +7 deaths, +10816 tests (6.8% positive) since a day ago — Senegal: +666 cases, +2 deaths, +2517 tests (26.5% positive) since a day ago16:00
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: California went from mandating vaccines to forcing COVID-positive health care employees to work → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzt9ny/california_went_from_mandating_vaccines_to/16:06
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Covid-19: Vaccination during pregnancy is safe, finds large US study → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rztmo8/covid19_vaccination_during_pregnancy_is_safe/16:25
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Cyprus' Deltacron could just be contamination, Imperial College virologist says (Update 2) → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rztqgz/coronavirus_cyprus_deltacron_could_just_be/16:35
oerhekshttps://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalHumour/comments/rzojjg/let_it_rip/16:37
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: U.S. administers over 518 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines -CDC → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzu0jx/us_administers_over_518_million_doses_of_covid19/16:44
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Fake COVID testing sites are popping up across the US, officials warn. How to spot one → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzu4ol/fake_covid_testing_sites_are_popping_up_across/16:54
BrainstormUpdates for Denmark: +19248 cases, +14 deaths since 10 hours ago — Serbia: +7949 cases, +22 deaths, +23278 tests (34.1% positive) since 22 hours ago — Chile: +4020 cases, +21 deaths, +75979 tests (5.3% positive) since a day ago — Jordan: +2349 cases, +20 deaths since 22 hours ago17:03
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Sunday 09 January 2022 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/rzuwf5/sunday_09_january_2022_update/17:31
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Most of London sees Covid cases fall amid hope Omicron wave has peaked → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzv50f/most_of_london_sees_covid_cases_fall_amid_hope/17:41
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Vaccinated women can pass COVID-19 antibodies to their babies - study → https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/rzvk4s/vaccinated_women_can_pass_covid19_antibodies_to/17:51
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canada resists pressure to drop vaccine mandate for cross-border truckers → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzvmk8/canada_resists_pressure_to_drop_vaccine_mandate/18:00
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +33826 cases, +8 deaths since 17 hours ago — Portugal: +26419 cases, +22 deaths since 22 hours ago — Greece: +18592 cases, +66 deaths, +230237 tests (8.1% positive) since 23 hours ago — Morocco: +4963 cases, +7 deaths, +26349 tests (18.8% positive) since a day ago18:05
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Thousands rally in Prague against vaccination mandate → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzwg2d/thousands_rally_in_prague_against_vaccination/18:39
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Which mask is best for protection against the omicron variant of COVID? → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzwlgq/which_mask_is_best_for_protection_against_the/18:48
LjLnot sure if i disagree with the criticism of Topol here https://twitter.com/Frugal_Saver/status/1479997203473125376 although i'm also not sure if this "Deltacron" thing is even real since there's talk it's just a sequencing result of lab contamination18:55
LjLbut i do sometimes get the feeling Topol, while obviously far from an idiot, takes the "easy" side to take18:56
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Ontario reports 21 new COVID-19 deaths; ICU occupancy now exceeds 400 → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzwsrb/ontario_reports_21_new_covid19_deaths_icu/18:58
lastshellUS reports over 600k cases daily19:00
LjLeh, they've reported over 1 million before...19:01
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +53557 cases since 23 hours ago — Japan: +8071 cases since 23 hours ago — Dominican Rep.: +6042 cases, +17650 tests (34.2% positive) since a day ago — Montenegro: +2454 cases, +8 deaths, +6644 tests (36.9% positive) since a day ago19:08
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: China's Tianjin testing all residents after omicron found → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzx4g4/chinas_tianjin_testing_all_residents_after/19:08
oerheksEric Topol, highly unreliable19:14
LjLnow "highly unreliable" seems a bit...19:16
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Some states are opening mass vaccination sites amid the Omicron surge in the U.S. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzxaf6/some_states_are_opening_mass_vaccination_sites/19:17
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Pan-Coronavirus self-assembling protein nanoparticle vaccine in development by Walter Reed Army Institute of Research shows promise in providing positive immune response for all Coronavirus and SARS disease. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzxoc9/pancoronavirus_selfassembling_protein/19:37
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19: 97 percent of eligible Aucklanders now fully vaccinated. → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzy10h/covid19_97_percent_of_eligible_aucklanders_now/19:46
de-factodo we have any stats on antibody waning after booster, e.g. from Israel?19:55
de-factowhats the half life?19:56
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Ireland Will Soon Pay Arts and Culture Workers a Basic Income to Help the Sector Bounce Back From the Pandemic → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzy7ri/ireland_will_soon_pay_arts_and_culture_workers_a/19:56
xxde-facto: there was a graph comparing it about a month ago (so not omicron) and it looked like it wanes just like all previous boosters20:01
xxI tried to find it, but couldn't again, it was one of the posts from Brainstorm feed20:02
xx'just like all previous' = same curve wrt time20:02
de-factoafter 2 doses the binding antibody titers halfed every 50-70 days20:03
de-factoi wonder if the longer delay between completing the primary series and boosting would increase half life of binding antibody half life20:04
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: California hospitals strained for staff and bracing for omicron uptick, including among kids → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzyax0/california_hospitals_strained_for_staff_and/20:05
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +155642 cases, +157 deaths, +993201 tests (15.7% positive) since a day ago — Canada: +24857 cases, +43 deaths since 22 hours ago — Jamaica: +1449 cases, +4 deaths, +4251 tests (34.1% positive) since a day ago — Albania: +1207 cases, +3 deaths, +42330 tests (2.9% positive) since 21 hours ago20:10
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Illinois loses more people faster to other states during COVID-19 pandemic → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzytcs/illinois_loses_more_people_faster_to_other_states/20:24
LjLthis looks pretty ridiculous20:28
LjL<Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Ireland Will Soon Pay Arts and Culture Workers a Basic Income to Help the Sector Bounce Back From the Pandemic → https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/rzy7ri/ireland_will_soon_pay_arts_and_culture_workers_a/20:28
LjL"A suggested rate of €10.50 ($11.90) per hour was discussed in the consultation, though the final number has yet to be confirmed." ← more than most working workers get here, much more even20:28
LjL"Once a person satisfies the eligibility criteria they will be included in a randomized selection process." ← randomized...? wtf20:28
LjL"It will pay some 2,000 people a basic income for three years." ← 2000 people? seriously, the people most affected by the pandemic are... 2000 people?20:29
LjLthis, i suppose, with the taxes that made Ireland rich that should mostly have been paid by big corporations to *other* EU countries instead20:29
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: False-Positive Results in Rapid Antigen Tests for SARS-CoV-2 → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/rzzahz/falsepositive_results_in_rapid_antigen_tests_for/20:42
BrainstormNew from ##covid-19 Zotero group: False-Positive Results in Rapid Antigen Tests for SARS-CoV-2: Type Journal Article Author Joshua S. Gans Author Avi Goldfarb Author Ajay K. Agrawal Author Sonia Sennik Author Janice Stein Author Laura Rosella URL https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.24355 Publication JAMA ISSN 0098-7484 [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/W7HBJ4CH20:52
BrainstormUpdates for Brazil: +6022 cases, +268 deaths since 20 hours ago — Cyprus: +3012 cases, +3 deaths since 23 hours ago21:00
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 851: Questions are tricky: The TWiV team reviews the observation that infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant causes reduced reproduction and pathogenesis in mice and hamsters. → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-851/21:01
rpifanso annoyed that novavax wont be ready until february21:19
grywhy21:23
xxrpifan: by february, there'll be another variant anyway21:28
xxor covid will be declared over, even if it is not21:28
xxso just get whatever vaccine you can if you want to decrease your own chance of death from covid21:28
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Spain reports more Covid reinfections in one fortnight than rest of pandemic → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/s005t0/spain_reports_more_covid_reinfections_in_one/21:30
rpifancuase my recovered certificatee runs out on the 26 of jan21:30
rpifanso ive gotta wait a few weeks at home until i can get vaccced21:30
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: 80% of Florida will have caught COVID-19 by end of omicron wave, UF report says → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/s00leg/80_of_florida_will_have_caught_covid19_by_end_of/21:39
rpifannice21:41
de-factoask the nurses if they would agree21:48
xxagree with what?21:49
oerheks"This site is currently unavailable to visitors from the European Economic Area while we work to ensure your data is protected in accordance with applicable EU laws." ... we are protected against bad reddit posts :-D21:49
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Vaccine pass better than a mandatory order, says French govt spokesman → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/s00ov5/vaccine_pass_better_than_a_mandatory_order_says/21:49
* xx knows a decent number of nurses21:49
rpifanbut its known omicron is less deadly then delta21:49
rpifanso its a good thing21:49
rpifanplus after the end of that wave it will start to end slowly21:50
rpifanpeople just need to prepare for the storm21:50
oerheksnot deadly like delta, but how much damage is done?21:50
rpifanwell it cant be helped anymore21:50
oerhekswe'll know in 12 months21:50
* LjL sighs21:51
rpifani suspect by summer we'll know21:52
de-factoif a constant part of Omicron infections requires hospitalization it will increase with the same relative growth rate as its cause.21:52
de-factoPeople dont go in hospitals for fun, especially not if they know they are going to be overloaded with COVID cases21:53
de-factoso how well will their medical needs be met in times of such massive Omicron waves?21:53
oerhekssome hospitals should be kept covid patients free..21:54
Raf[m]oerheks: That's a good idea21:57
Raf[m]Perhaps places have done it for things like outpatient clinics21:57
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: 4th COVID-19 vaccine dose: What’s the science behind another booster? → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/s00zoj/4th_covid19_vaccine_dose_whats_the_science_behind/21:58
xxI know how to decrease the strain on hospital system...21:59
xxit's both easy and at no additional cost21:59
de-factowell in addition to all that, medical personnel will get infected too and therefore reduce healthcare system capacity in times with increasing demand22:01
de-factoi dont know if all that is a good thing22:01
xxthings will keep getting worse, until my solutions are implemented22:02
BrainstormUpdates for France: +296097 cases, +90 deaths since 23 hours ago — United States: +464785 cases, +388 deaths since 23 hours ago — South Africa: +4482 cases, +82 deaths, +25430 tests (17.6% positive) since a day ago — North Macedonia: +1396 cases, +9 deaths, +11479 tests (12.2% positive) since 23 hours ago22:02
de-factoa good thing would be if at least, with all those bad news, those hospitalized with Omicron infection would have a significantly lower risk to end up in ICU22:03
de-factoanother good thing would be if drugs like Paxlovid would work out to take at least *some* of the load from hospitals22:03
lastshellhere in my county since 5 days ago every day we break new record of cases22:06
xxlastshell: isn't that the case for every place right now?22:07
oerheksthe drop in NL of severe cases and deaths makes me worry, people think it is safer now.22:08
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Canada resists pressure to drop vaccine mandate for cross-border truckers → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/s011wh/canada_resists_pressure_to_drop_vaccine_mandate/22:08
lastshellxx: I guess that is the case22:10
rpifanyes more cases22:11
rpifanbut more ppl in the hospital as well?22:11
xxoverall, yes22:12
LjLin the US, yes22:12
LjLin other places, probably soon22:12
xxbut that's also a seasonal thing, it's winter in north hemisphere22:12
de-facto.title https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases_newhospitaladmissions <-- hospital admissions are rising with infections proportionally, hence if its Omicron causing those infections its Omicron causing those hospitalizations22:14
Brainstormde-facto: From covid.cdc.gov: CDC COVID Data Tracker22:14
LjL%title https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1480245067591786499 this shows pretty similar deaths vs cases in major US cities, compared to previous wavse22:14
BrainstormLjL: From twitter.com: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "More on this concern here by major cities https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/01/09/us/omicron-cities-cases-hospitals.html?smid=tw-share @LaurenLeatherby @nytgraphics" | [...]22:14
de-facto.title https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals <-- unfortunately it seems hospitalizations spike in the very young and children in UK22:14
Brainstormde-facto: From www.ons.gov.uk: Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights - Office for National Statistics22:14
Timvdede-facto: oh, yikes, that's bad22:14
Timvdede-facto: because they're not vaccinated?22:14
de-facto.title https://imgur.com/a/rq4e1sD https://i.imgur.com/4WtrwvO.png data source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/22:15
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID UK: SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations, hospitalizations per cases - Album on Imgur22:15
de-factoso there you have it rpifan yes it looks like the fraction of Omicron cases ending in hospital is a constant for now22:16
Timvdede-facto: what I'm mostly worried about, is how much worse it is than the peak from January last year22:16
de-factoit grows much faster22:17
TimvdeWait, is the graph wrong?22:17
TimvdeThe mouseover only goes to like 200-250k cases per day, but the graph appears to go up to 800k (for last year)22:17
Timvdeoh no22:17
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Hospital ‘could lose up to 1,000 workers as jabs made mandatory for NHS staff’ → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/s019zp/hospital_could_lose_up_to_1000_workers_as_jabs/22:17
TimvdeI was totally aligning the graphs with the wrong axes, sorry :P22:18
TimvdeI hope our vaccination rate helps protect us against that many hospitalisations22:19
rpifani think we really getting to the other side of the peak of covid in general22:20
rpifanim sure around march or so it will be the highest point in the whole pandemic22:21
rpifandue to the newer variant being less deadly and the weather warming up again22:21
rpifani do agree with what ive heard a long time ago now that there will continue to be flares up and pockets for a very long time22:21
rpifanbut the general pandemic i supsect will end soon22:21
de-factoi think it will continue as long as intercontinental travel continues22:22
de-factoOmicron reinfects because of its seroevasive capabilities22:22
xxomicron (re)infects because people let themselves be infected22:24
xxand/or let others infect them22:24
xxrpifan: the general pandemic could have been over in ~20 days if countries cooperated and implemented the strictest conditions22:25
xxlike, remember how there were no flights in europe during that iceland volcano? It's evidently doable.22:26
xxbut that was because they didn't want to damage the airplanes, rather than about people's health22:26
xxobviously they care more about planes than humans then22:26
BrainstormNew from ##covid-19 Zotero group: COVID Data Tracker: Type Web Page Author CDC URL https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker Date 2020-03-28 Accessed 2022-01-09 21:16:34 Language en Abstract CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website. Website Title Centers for Disease [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/NCQDUZU822:27
dTalthat's a perversely negative way of viewing things22:33
xxtell me I'm wrong though22:34
dTalok22:34
dTalyou're wrong though22:34
xxthey stopped flights to protect planes, they haven't stopped flights now to protect people22:34
dTaldude, if the planes flame out they crash land and people die22:34
xxback during the volcano, not a single plane would have fallen out of the sky, it simply increased maintenance costs22:35
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: LA County sets new daily record with over 45,000 Covid cases → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/s01t4x/la_county_sets_new_daily_record_with_over_45000/22:37
LjLI think it's not incorrect to say that a number of perversely negative things have been done, which led to and then maintained the pandemic22:39
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19 outbreak: WHO reveals why Omicron spreads so fast as 10 million new cases are recorded in past week → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/s01ytq/covid19_outbreak_who_reveals_why_omicron_spreads/22:46
LjL"WHO reveals" a bunch of rather obvious things we've known for a while22:47
xxI'm overall very dissatisfied with WHO22:58
LjL%title https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/147993865457954406522:59
BrainstormLjL: From twitter.com: Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom): "1. A thread on the CDC’s recommendation to de-isolate five days after the onset of symptoms or positive test. First, a disclosure: I was paid as a consultant for [...]22:59
LjLnot sure i agree with the underlying rationale, but not sure i understand the model either, so go and dissect, amen22:59
chris_fv2022howdy23:02
LjLhi23:04
chris_fv2022new to irc, is it normal to see room so quiet?23:05
BrainstormUpdates for Turkey: +59757 cases, +173 deaths, +384049 tests (15.6% positive) since a day ago — Mali: +1217 cases, +1 deaths, +5294 tests (23.0% positive) since a day ago — Kenya: +741 cases, +21 deaths, +5329 tests (13.9% positive) since 23 hours ago — Moldova: +389 cases, +7 deaths, +52520 tests (0.7% positive) since a day ago23:05
BrainstormNew from ##covid-19 Zotero group: LjL: 1. A thread on the CDC’s recommendation to de-isolate five days after the onset of symptoms or positive test. First, a disclosure: I was paid as a consultant for this work, done in collaboration with @Color Health, which provides COVID testing services and vaccination logistics. → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/JZ9RPL6N23:05
LjLchris_fv2022, with a sample of 5 minutes? yes, pretty mormal23:07
chris_fv2022kk, ty23:08
LjL<Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: End mass jabs and live with Covid, says ex-head of vaccine taskforce → https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/s02koh/end_mass_jabs_and_live_with_covid_says_exhead_of/23:11
LjLthis will turns some heads...23:11
oerheksDr Clive Dix , never heard of him, taskforce December 2020 until April,23:15
chris_fv2022with the Omicron situation, most country won't have much choice left but try to live with it23:17
sdfgsdfgI think Djokovic's court case is in 40 minutes, a few streets away from me23:24
sdfgsdfgI wonder if I can walk there and livestream23:24
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Western troops fell ill in Wuhan MONTHS before Covid outbreak officially began fueling lab leak suspicions → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/s036v5/western_troops_fell_ill_in_wuhan_months_before/23:33
xxsdfgsdfg: that would involve going outside and being in proximity to humans. Best to be avoided.23:35
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: US hospitals strained with influx of patients amid latest COVID surge, staffing shortages → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/s03c0b/us_hospitals_strained_with_influx_of_patients/23:43
sdfgsdfgI just found out it's an online hearing :(23:43
Arsaneritsdfgsdfg: someone else is probably doing livestreaming already23:44
Arsaneritif allowed at all23:44
sdfgsdfghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwMoEH3M9Zc23:45
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Quebec physicians order asks for harsher measures against the unvaccinated - Montreal | Globalnews.ca → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/s03jrp/quebec_physicians_order_asks_for_harsher_measures/23:52

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