| lastshell | de-facto why fatalities are rising in SA if omicron is gone ? | 00:06 |
|---|---|---|
| de-facto | thats the question | 00:07 |
| de-facto | it could be a combination of several effects | 00:07 |
| lastshell | new variant ? or something ? | 00:08 |
| de-facto | 1) reporting delay (but why different to previous waves?) 2) Omicron reaching better shielded risk groups later (than the actual peak in the healthy young vaccinated) 3) Something new | 00:08 |
| de-facto | i would guess a combination of 1) and 2) | 00:08 |
| lastshell | yikes | 00:08 |
| de-facto | and hopeing for nothing like 3) | 00:09 |
| Tuvix | Perhaps changes to reporting or access to tests for positive cases could be a factor too. | 00:09 |
| Tuvix | For instance, if the spread was continuing in larger amounts than previously known, the falloff of cases may not have been as fast or as sharp, which could also lead to more deaths, though argubaly that's alos kind of #1, reporting delay (or just no reporting) | 00:10 |
| de-facto | i just wonder about why it looks different to previous waves (the delay between infections and deaths) | 00:11 |
| de-facto | https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJC60B8XEAUht4O?format=jpg&name=large | 00:11 |
| Tuvix | We're seeing differences here in the states not quite the same, but similar in that it's spreading "differently" this time as it moves across the various pockets of the US, invovling both distances and population density factors, but also regulation and social changes. | 00:12 |
| de-facto | i guess we would need to have incidence per age groups for more insights | 00:12 |
| Tuvix | Assuming that the overall social behavior of people within a state doesn't siginificantlly change relative to their neighbors in the US, this may mean Omicron's impact on those pockets of society is also acting differentl as the virus continues to spread. | 00:12 |
| de-facto | as in combined incidence for all age groups does not tell us the infection dynamics in the vulnerable groups (and fatal outcome is in causal relation to incidence in vulnerable groups) | 00:13 |
| de-facto | but once again it shows that Omicron is not harmless, it brings people into hospital and into grave for some groups | 00:14 |
| Tuvix | Yea, that's why some of the deaths-by-agegroup-over-time charts I had were interesting, and I should dig into those again because the trend at least through Delta was each successive wave was _worse_ in death totals on the younger age-groups, while actually improving (as in, fewer deaths) in the oldest 3 age brackets. | 00:14 |
| Tuvix | If that trend continues, the under-50's could well far a lot worse with Omicron, especially since much of the country is shrugging it off and going back to work/school/social-events now, and most of those aren't masking as much as may be prudent. | 00:15 |
| Tuvix | fare* a lot worse | 00:15 |
| de-facto | well the oldest age groups may 1) have more up-to-date vaccination protection 2) may have depleted their vulnerable members (in previous waves) while the young groups may 1) have less vaccinated people 2) may have more re-infections (hence raise immunity against other antigenic surfaces) | 00:17 |
| de-facto | do we have data about severity for reinfections vs breakthroughs? | 00:18 |
| Tuvix | Neither has mandatory reporting most places (at least not here in the US via the state or CDC data AFAIK.) Maybe there's a study that's focused on that, but I don't have one in my bookmarked list. | 00:19 |
| Tuvix | Unless you end up in the hospital or something, but then it'd be hard to know unless there was a wide-enough reporting of that somewhere to make useful analysis possible. | 00:20 |
| Tuvix | de-facto: That chart of SA deaths (even though it's still only "just" on the upswing and we don't know where it'll end up) is hopefully a trend other place won't see, or this wave's aftermath could be quite ugly. | 00:21 |
| de-facto | yeah i hope its something specific to a change in their reporting system or such | 00:22 |
| de-facto | i guess "next" would be UK data to look at | 00:22 |
| de-facto | https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ | 00:22 |
| de-facto | but neither SA nor UK deaths reached their peak level yet, seems in either location every day more people are dying | 00:23 |
| Tuvix | Right, though some of the state-level data in places like in the northeast of the US may not be far behind since "the peak" of cases may already have passed for some of the early-hit areas with higher-vaccination rates. | 00:23 |
| Tuvix | National US data is a bit less clear until the wave finally has had a chance to move across all the regions and have its effect seen in aggregate. | 00:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: COVID-infected hamsters in pet shop trigger animal cull in Hong Kong → https://arstechnica.com/ | 00:25 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.covid19sa.org/gautenghospitalisation <-- though hospitalizations in SA peaked and went down already | 00:27 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.covid19sa.org: Gauteng Hospitalisation | Covid-19 South Africa | 00:27 |
| de-facto | maybe Omicron kills slower compared to previous variants? | 00:28 |
| de-facto | e.g. the fight lasts longer? | 00:28 |
| Tuvix | Weird dynamic. Either those are not quite the same series of data for whatever reason, or maybe something else is at play, such as people who couldn't get hospital care falling ill enough to end up with fatal outcomes now? | 00:28 |
| Tuvix | Maybe? As in the initial symptoms aren't as severe to land people in the hospital, at least not right away, and then they end up with serious outcomes much quicker that don't elevate the hosptial numbers as much? | 00:28 |
| Tuvix | I've heard case-studies on the news now and then about people who waited until for instance their O2 stats were in the 60's to 50's before finally calling emergency services. | 00:29 |
| de-facto | wow | 00:29 |
| Tuvix | No idea if they didn't undertand how serious that was, or if they just continued to believe that a serious outcome couldn't happen to them. | 00:30 |
| Tuvix | It's about as disconnected as the reports from doctors who have almost broken down in tears during interviews talking about a patient that is in the ICU asking if it's too late to get a vaccination right then on the spot to help. | 00:30 |
| Tuvix | This is a not uncommon trend in the deeply undervaccinated areas of the country. | 00:31 |
| dTal | Yes I've heard that a lot | 00:32 |
| dTal | it shows the level of understanding these people have | 00:32 |
| Tuvix | Granted it was a $25 amazon device, but My SpO2 is 97-98% currently, so I'm happy with that. | 00:32 |
| * Tuvix is unlikely to need emergency services tonight, though the night is yet young here… | 00:33 | |
| dTal | Tuvix, give me $50 and I'll make you one that says 110% | 00:33 |
| lastshell | Tuvix you caught covid ? | 00:33 |
| de-facto | those cheap ones are quite accurate btw | 00:34 |
| Tuvix | Nope, but I picked up the SpO2 originally to debunk some nonsense claims from a social/sports club I hung out with, but opted not to fight that fight since it was half-full of vaccine-skeptics. | 00:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): [Correspondence] Breakthrough infections with SARS-CoV-2 omicron despite mRNA vaccine booster dose: The most recent SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern to emerge has been named omicron.1 Its immune evasion potential was predicted by genomic data and has been [... want %more?] → https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00090-3/fulltext | 00:35 |
| Tuvix | I'm glad I have one, just as a way to be a bit more confident in the value. The Fitbit I have only shows me an "estimated oxygen variation" for sleep-hours, since it's not new enough to have full-time SpO2 stats. | 00:35 |
| lastshell | all the time I had covid was 98/99 | 00:41 |
| lastshell | one night I freak out because I almost the smell factor but just cleaning my nose helped | 00:41 |
| lastshell | to recover the smell | 00:41 |
| de-facto | did you ever got a cough? | 00:42 |
| lastshell | yes | 00:43 |
| lastshell | but very few | 00:43 |
| lastshell | was more the nasal congestion the main issue for me | 00:43 |
| lastshell | no fever but night with sweats | 00:43 |
| de-facto | interesting | 00:44 |
| de-facto | headache? | 00:44 |
| lastshell | one day | 00:44 |
| lastshell | no fever | 00:44 |
| lastshell | but im 3 vaccinated 37 years | 00:44 |
| de-facto | yeah that probably helps a lot | 00:45 |
| lastshell | I thing was omicron the variant | 00:45 |
| lastshell | because the sore troath also was annoying | 00:45 |
| de-facto | its the most common variant now | 00:45 |
| de-facto | did you drink some tea or such? | 00:45 |
| lastshell | yes a lot of water | 00:45 |
| lastshell | tea, breath exercises, sun exposure sleep | 00:46 |
| de-facto | thats good, but i am curious about if tea makes the sore throat better, i hear that from someone that currently got it | 00:46 |
| lastshell | I was doing "gargaras" | 00:46 |
| lastshell | let me search in english that word | 00:46 |
| LjL | Tuvix, did you opt not to fight that fight, or did you realize that the pulse oximeter sometimes randomly reads 93% for a while and it's not worth risking :P | 00:47 |
| de-facto | a gargle | 00:47 |
| de-facto | gargled with tea? | 00:47 |
| lastshell | gargle with warm water tumeric or baking soda with lemon | 00:47 |
| de-facto | ok that sounds good too | 00:47 |
| lastshell | that help me a lot to remove the mocus | 00:47 |
| Tuvix | LjL: Actually that was about masks "causing people to pass out from lack of oxygen," but even at 93%, the unit's rated accuracy is +/- 2%. Though I suppose that could also mean that 93% really is 91% :P | 00:47 |
| Tuvix | And to be very clear, no, even N95 masks do not cause people who normally have no problems breathing to pass out while sitting down, as was the claim. I've linked this before here, but for anyone who hadn't seen it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7t2k2-xH5AU | 00:48 |
| ecks | working in a gas mask is pretty awful though | 00:50 |
| LjL | Tuvix, they're all rated ±2% but i've often enough had readings of 93% and i'm not sure i have any pathology | 00:54 |
| LjL | it's also often enough 97-98% | 00:54 |
| LjL | even 99% but only when i'm having a panic attack! :P | 00:54 |
| Tuvix | I rarely see it at 94%, and I don't think ever lower than that. | 00:55 |
| Tuvix | Maybe my home just leaks more air than yours so I have a better supply of fresh, outdoor air :P | 00:55 |
| de-facto | for me the SpO2 levels lightly correlate with opening windows (when i chill at my desk), no juke | 00:56 |
| de-facto | but only very lightly maybe 2% or such | 00:56 |
| de-facto | also when i get up and walk around it tends to go up a bit | 00:57 |
| Tuvix | Earlier it started at 96%, but my tea timer went off so I got up and by the time I was ready to pour it was 97-98%, probably becuase of the extra intake my body was ramping up for the "long journey" 2 rooms away | 00:57 |
| Tuvix | Yup! | 00:57 |
| Tuvix | The morning commute is also rough. 3 rooms, and the traffic includes 2 cats who often demand attention. | 00:57 |
| de-facto | its probably deeper breathing and maybe increased BP or P or such, better circulation when not at rest | 00:57 |
| de-facto | lastshell, how long did it take for you from first symptoms to recovering? | 01:05 |
| lastshell | 3 or 5 days | 01:05 |
| de-facto | oh thats quick nice | 01:05 |
| lastshell | but nasal congestion took me a week | 01:05 |
| de-facto | and now any symptoms left? | 01:05 |
| lastshell | hight heart rate some days just normal walking | 01:06 |
| de-facto | ah yeah you said that, i remember now | 01:06 |
| de-facto | it will come back to normal too, just give it some time | 01:06 |
| lastshell | yeah | 01:07 |
| de-facto | in Germany they discuss right now about how long the status of being recovered may last | 01:12 |
| de-facto | because that is treated similar to being vaccinated and boosted | 01:12 |
| de-facto | right now they changed it to 3 months after infection | 01:12 |
| lastshell | 3 months after infection I have protection | 01:12 |
| de-facto | yet we do not have enough data on how long Omicron will induce immunity (with either reinfection with an omicron based wild type or even another mutant) | 01:13 |
| de-facto | yeah | 01:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Two thirds of Covid vaccine side effects are imagined, study suggests → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/s7bagr/two_thirds_of_covid_vaccine_side_effects_are/ | 01:13 |
| de-facto | i mean possibly the infection induced immunity may have changed with Omicron being less severe for people, more in the upper airways than deep down in the lung | 01:14 |
| de-facto | we just dont know that yet | 01:14 |
| de-facto | i wonder how long it may take for a new mutant to emerge | 01:17 |
| de-facto | right now we have a MASSIVE number of new infections, hence many "trial and error" bruteforcing to increase fitness for the current given conditions | 01:18 |
| de-facto | yet if Omicron may be cleared faster it may have less time inside each carrier | 01:18 |
| Tuvix | The good news as a boosted individual is that, ignoring any symptoms or possible side-effects of the infection itself, once you recover you'll have effectively updated the antibody response. However, if an updated vaccine becomes available based on Omicron and that becomes recommended for the general public, it'll still be a good idea to follow the science since it's likely to help broaden protection. | 01:19 |
| Tuvix | There's a bit of guesswork involved in that, but from the early information on the topic, it seems the vaccinated + boosted have fared generally better than the previously-infected. It'd be interesting for more detailed review of that, such as to know if a more _recent_ Delta infection in the unvaccinated confirs more protection for Omicron than a prior-wave infection. It's hard to study that since lots | 01:21 |
| Tuvix | of the unvaccinated don't report unless they're hospitalized though. | 01:21 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.25.21268301v1.full-text | 01:25 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Serial interval and basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in South Korea | medRxiv | 01:25 |
| de-facto | "South Korea is experiencing the community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529). We estimated that the mean (± standard deviation) serial interval was 2.22 (± 1.62) days, and the basic reproduction number was 1.90 (95% Credible Interval, 1.50–2.43) for the Omicron variant outbreak in South Korea." | 01:26 |
| de-facto | wow thats crazy fast 2.22 days for each generation | 01:26 |
| de-facto | that may matter for the actual number of infected per generation as in R1 ^ (t/ts1) = R2 ^ (t/ts2) hence R2 = R1 ^ (ts2 / ts1) e.g. if R1 was calculated with the usual ts1 = 4d and the actual ts2 = 2.22 days for Omicron it would infect R2 = R1 ^ (2.22/4) new carriers each generation | 01:34 |
| de-facto | with 2.22/4 = 0.555 thats pretty close to the square root | 01:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: A proteomic survival predictor for COVID-19 patients in intensive care → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/s7bvwz/a_proteomic_survival_predictor_for_covid19/ | 01:42 |
| de-facto | Omicron may be the fastest spreading virus we have seen so far | 01:55 |
| de-facto | it conquered the whole world in one month and still keeps spiking | 01:55 |
| finely[m] | Why Australia let it rip when it did: | 02:04 |
| finely[m] | https://thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2022/01/19/michael-pascoe-omicron-intentional-scenario/ | 02:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Placebo Effect Accounts for More Than Two-Thirds of COVID-19 Vaccine Adverse Events, Researchers Find → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/s7cvyw/placebo_effect_accounts_for_more_than_twothirds/ | 02:19 |
| Tuvix | Considering the lack of actual evidence the author points to, that seems like a very weak argument to be making. Most of his twitter is full of similar unsourced claims and retweets that appear to be primarily for sensation/shock value. | 02:19 |
| LjL | Brainstorm, uh, that would be nocebo effect surely | 02:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Depression rise at Christmas linked to stress over Covid: Despite no lockdowns, a large survey found anxieties over being infected and long Covid were high. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60041173 | 02:48 |
| LjL | welp, i'm going to be banned from another subreddit | 03:06 |
| LjL | https://np.reddit.com/r/science/comments/s7cvyw/placebo_effect_accounts_for_more_than_twothirds/ht9gukf/ | 03:06 |
| LjL | or https://np.reddit.com/r/science/comments/s7cvyw/placebo_effect_accounts_for_more_than_twothirds/ht9gukf/?context=3 for context rather | 03:06 |
| jacklsw | for misinformation? | 03:24 |
| lastshell | misinformation LJL doubt | 03:26 |
| LjL | i dunno, i'm definitely banned from r/covid19 and shadowbanned from r/coronavirus | 03:26 |
| LjL | or something that's not a shadowban, i'm not entirely sure what's going on there | 03:26 |
| LjL | i've already received two replies one of which seems a bit moronic | 03:26 |
| LjL | (not sure about the other, i'm replying to the first) | 03:27 |
| lastshell | some dude share this in #conspiracytheories https://www.bitchute.com/video/SYbgTF6OmUNK/ | 03:27 |
| LjL | you don't have to propagate conspiracy theories, you know ;( | 03:35 |
| lastshell | just scary what they claim in that video :( | 03:36 |
| LjL | i kind of hate wasting time on these videos are they are typically quite absurd, but i'll give it a look | 03:49 |
| lastshell | thanks sorry for this not trying to misinformation just worry about myself and people who took the ja | 03:52 |
| lastshell | *jab | 03:52 |
| LjL | lastshell, still haven't watched, but i want to point you to something: have you noticed a lot of this conspiracy stuff tends to be videos, rather than written text, or at least a lot of images with graphs and words *as images* making it difficult to look it up or cite? | 04:02 |
| LjL | something written down properly is much easier to debunk | 04:03 |
| LjL | it seems the entire goal is to make it hard (as in "effortful") to debunk | 04:03 |
| lastshell | thanks LjL | 04:05 |
| LjL | oh my god it's 40 minutes | 04:11 |
| lastshell | is to long no worry | 04:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Myocarditis after Covid-19 Vaccination in a Large Health Care Organization | NEJM → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/s7eqtf/myocarditis_after_covid19_vaccination_in_a_large/ | 04:14 |
| LjL | lastshell, okay, first thing of substance it's claiming is: "even without the vaccine, the risk of contracting COVID-19 was extremely low at 0.88%", in the original BNT/Pfizer trial | 04:14 |
| LjL | i'm sure you can see that this is completely irrelevant at this point, even if it was true originally | 04:14 |
| LjL | %cases mexico | 04:14 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mexico has had 4.2 million confirmed cases (3.3% of all people) and 300764 deaths (7.1% of cases; 1 in 421 people) as of a day ago. 12.9 million tests were done (32.7% positive). 81.9 million were vaccinated (64.7%). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Mexico&legacy=no | 04:14 |
| LjL | 3.3% is higher than 0.88% (although it's much smaller than say Italy) | 04:14 |
| LjL | and you've got it | 04:14 |
| LjL | tons of people are getting it | 04:15 |
| LjL | this premise is already false | 04:15 |
| LjL | given this video was posted recently, there is no excuse for thinking 0.8% is still your *actual* risk of getting COVID | 04:16 |
| LjL | "how many people would have taken the vaccine if they had known if offered less than 1% benefit" | 04:17 |
| LjL | this is the old absolute risk ratio mumbo jumbo | 04:17 |
| LjL | yes, absolute risk reduction also is useful to evaluate some things | 04:17 |
| LjL | but simplifying it into "the vaccine offers less than 1% benefit" is absurd | 04:17 |
| LjL | 1% of what? have you understood 1% of *what* they are talking about? | 04:17 |
| LjL | because i'm pretty sure they are counting on you *not* understanding it | 04:18 |
| LjL | as to the early ending of the trial | 04:23 |
| LjL | you can't just stop people from getting a vaccine, anyway | 04:23 |
| LjL | if they had told people "nope, you will have to wait THREE YEARS before we tell you whether you got placebo or the vaccine", most people would have just gone and gotten another vaccine | 04:23 |
| LjL | trials get stopped early when there is clear evidence of efficacy | 04:24 |
| LjL | people are given the treatment (or preventative vaccine in this case) if it's clearly working | 04:24 |
| LjL | it's not some dirty thing, it's the ethical thing to do | 04:24 |
| LjL | and also inevitable in this case | 04:24 |
| LjL | %title https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/s7eqtf/myocarditis_after_covid19_vaccination_in_a_large/ | 04:27 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.reddit.com: Myocarditis after Covid-19 Vaccination in a Large Health Care Organization | NEJM : COVID19 | 04:27 |
| LjL | relevant to what i wrote on reddit... | 04:27 |
| LjL | at least if this comment is accurate "From Table 2. Male sex, 16–29 yr: 10.69 per 100,000 persons" | 04:28 |
| LjL | that makes 1 out of 10000, which is the same as the study i cited finds with Moderna for males below 40 | 04:28 |
| de-facto | there are predictions that 50% of EU citizens may get Omicron | 04:28 |
| LjL | it's low, but it's *much higher* than you'd expect in random people not taking anything, or even getting COVID | 04:29 |
| de-facto | absolute risk reduction is nonsensical because it can not be predicted what the actual contamination rate will be in future | 04:30 |
| de-facto | but relative risk ratio is very relevant since it compares the risk for a contaminated to reach an endpoint (e.g. symptomatic infection, hospitalization, death) for vaccinated with non-vaccinated | 04:32 |
| de-facto | the next claim also is nonsensical, the breakthrough cases are a special selection and if they compare severeness to a non-selected control it will not be a fair comparison | 04:35 |
| LjL | i have not proceeded further with watching the video | 04:36 |
| lastshell | thank you guys for giving me peace of mind | 04:37 |
| LjL | lastshell, as you can see, i'm posting things that show "bad" things about Moderna for example | 04:37 |
| LjL | so i don't like, myself, trying to hide adverse effects and such | 04:37 |
| de-facto | breakthrough cases may have had a condition that distinguished them from the non-breakthrough cases in the vaccinated group (e.g. some immune condition or genetic condition or high contamination dose or whatever), so comparing them to all other (non vaccinated cases, both those with and without such conditions) is not a fair comparison | 04:37 |
| LjL | obviously i know very little about this stuff, but if i find something that shows the vaccines have some issues, i prefer to say it | 04:38 |
| LjL | but i will also say that they mostly don't have issues | 04:38 |
| de-facto | but yeah that video comes with bad intent, hence i dont really care about their opinions there | 04:38 |
| LjL | and that video is just saying stupid things | 04:38 |
| de-facto | they intentionally try to mislead people making it look scientific | 04:38 |
| de-facto | many may fall for that | 04:38 |
| lastshell | thanks guys I appreciate a lot sadly there is a lot of misinformation this days | 04:39 |
| de-facto | bitchute is almost always misinfo | 04:39 |
| de-facto | otherwise they would go for youtube because they reach more people with that platform | 04:40 |
| de-facto | yet misinfo will get deleted from youtube quickly | 04:40 |
| de-facto | so if it only can be published on bitchute its going to be bs quite likely | 04:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from ##covid-19 Zotero group: Myocarditis after Covid-19 Vaccination in a Large Health Care Organization: Type Journal Article Author Guy Witberg Author Noam Barda Author Sara Hoss Author Ilan Richter Author Maya Wiessman Author Yaron Aviv Author Tzlil Grinberg Author Oren Auster Author Noa Dagan Author Ran D. [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/7EQDP64T | 04:42 |
| de-facto | if vaccinations would increase the risk of severe progressions it would be incompatible with the statistics showing that 4 out of 5 hospitalizations get prevented by vaccination | 04:43 |
| de-facto | i wonder how they even can go with such an obviously wrong claim | 04:44 |
| de-facto | but heh she got a sexy voice | 04:44 |
| de-facto | they even contradict their own statements, comparing different time windows as if they spanned over the same duration LOL | 04:46 |
| de-facto | yeah complete BS | 04:46 |
| lastshell | thanks guys sorry if you guys wasted time | 04:46 |
| LjL | it's okay, every once in a while it's good to dissect these bad pieces of anti-information :P | 04:47 |
| lastshell | y | 04:47 |
| oerheks | not all patients with corona, are counted as 'with corona' in NL | 04:56 |
| ZdrytchX | .cases australia | 05:09 |
| Brainstorm | ZdrytchX: Australia has had 1.4 million confirmed cases (5.5% of all people) and 2522 deaths (0.2% of cases; 1 in 10174 people) as of a day ago. 58.0 million tests were done (2.4% positive). 20.5 million were vaccinated (79.8%). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia&legacy=no | 05:09 |
| Brainstorm | ZdrytchX: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Australia, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it. | 05:09 |
| minth | https://twitter.com/srmiddleton1978/status/1483637556126568449 | 05:28 |
| minth | .title | 05:29 |
| Brainstorm | minth: From twitter.com: Scott Middleton (@srmiddleton1978): "This is the way... Credit to original artist but cant find on twitter :) https://imgur.com/user/bochulaz" | nitter | 05:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk): U.S. COVID update: Nearly 1.2 million new cases as holiday backlogs are released- New cases: 1,180,187- Average: 772,230 (+56,042)- States reporting: 47/50- In hospital: 154,199 (-9)- In ICU: 26,209 (+250)- New deaths: 3,338More data: newsnodes.com/us → https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1483650967501524994 | 05:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Boosters May Weaken The Immune System Says European Medicine Agency (EMA) Dr. Syed → https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/s7hjhk/boosters_may_weaken_the_immune_system_says/ | 06:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mild COVID cases still lead to attention and memory issues - study → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/s7jatg/mild_covid_cases_still_lead_to_attention_and/ | 07:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO says no evidence healthy children, adolescents need COVID-19 boosters → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/s7kd8l/who_says_no_evidence_healthy_children_adolescents/ | 08:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 19, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/s7l2at/daily_discussion_thread_january_19_2022/ | 09:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Elections: Boris Johnson facing plot by new MPs to oust him over lockdown parties → https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-plot-mps-oust-lockdown-parties-scandal-partygate/ | 09:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: After Omicron, we could use a break. We may just get it: With fingers crossed, some experts think we may get a bit of a break from the Covid roller coaster after Omicron. → https://www.statnews.com/2022/01/19/after-omicron-we-could-use-a-break-we-may-just-get-it/ | 10:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New French law bans unvaccinated from restaurants, venues → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/s7mqcu/new_french_law_bans_unvaccinated_from_restaurants/ | 11:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: Human medicine assessment reports: (news): Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Pregabalin Pfizer, pregabalin, Anxiety Disorders;Epilepsy, Date of authorisation: 10/04/2014, Revision: 25, Status: Authorised → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/pregabalin-pfizer | 11:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: ECDC: Data on the daily number of new reported COVID-19 cases and deaths by EU/EEA country → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/data-daily-new-cases-covid-19-eueea-country | 12:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on COVID-19 vaccination in the EU/EEA: Data in various file formats with information on COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, manufacturers, and target groups in the EU/EEA. → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/data-covid-19-vaccination-eu-eea | 12:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Hana Horka: Czech singer dies after catching Covid intentionally - BBC News → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/s7p3vm/hana_horka_czech_singer_dies_after_catching_covid/ | 13:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: England to end Plan B Covid measures, PM confirms: Covid passports for large events and advice to work from home are being dropped, Boris Johnson says. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60047438 | 14:12 |
| sdfgsdfg | ooo | 14:12 |
| sdfgsdfg | and nobody in my family believes me when I say it's ending in uk. This wave got people so scared | 14:12 |
| peetaur | it's hard to believe anything from anyone about a topic where the vast majority of information is lies | 14:17 |
| peetaur | so how can you be so sure? | 14:18 |
| peetaur | stuff like this? https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/fda-advisory-panel-rejects-widespread-pfizer-vaccine-booster-shots | 14:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: What are the latest Covid rules for the UK?: England is to remove its "Plan B" Covid restrictions over the next week. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52530518 | 14:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: World Health Leaders Discuss Long-Term Strategy for COVID-19 Vaccines and Boosters: As global health leaders discuss the best long-term strategy for COVID-19 vaccines and boosters, consensus is emerging that repeated boosters of [... want %more?] → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/world-health-leaders-discuss-long-term-strategy-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-boosters | 14:32 |
| undefined_bob | this will maybe only end until next autumn | 14:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Coronavirus: Boris Johnson announces remaining COVID-19 restrictions in England will be lifted → https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-announces-remaining-covid-19-in-england-will-be-lifted/ | 14:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid infections falling across the UK, says ONS: It's the most significant drop since the Omicron wave hit the country in December, the figures suggest. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60056006 | 15:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virology.ws: TWiV 854: Omicron is evasive: TWiV reviews findings that increased fitness of the Omicron variant is due to immune evasion, not an increase in intrinsic transmissibility, and determination of infectious viral load in patients infected with wild type, Delta and Omicron viruses reveals lack [... want %more?] → https://www.virology.ws/2022/01/19/twiv-854-omicron-is-evasive/ | 15:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil's parents want their kids vaccinated against COVID-19. Bolsonaro has tried to stop it → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/s7rd6v/brazils_parents_want_their_kids_vaccinated/ | 15:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Parents, please take note of this important finding on 90% vaccine protection vs MIS-C below.And good to see new data that the recovery of heart function for MIS-C is fairly rapid in most children when this dreaded outcome occursahajournals.org/doi/epub/10.11… [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1483815319869145089 | 16:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Inmates sue after receiving Ivermectin to treat COVID without consent → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/s7rzha/inmates_sue_after_receiving_ivermectin_to_treat/ | 16:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Macron says EU and Africa seek vaccines deal at February summit: The French President says he is in favor of a global license for coronavirus vaccines that would remove intellectual property barriers. → https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-eu-africa-seek-vaccine-deal-february-summit/ | 16:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from WHO Euro: The Omicron variant: sorting fact from myth: Since the B.1.1.529 variant was declared a Variant of Concern and assigned the name Omicron on 26 November 2021, our understanding of this variant has increased considerably, thanks [... want %more?] → https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/pages/news/news/2022/01/the-omicron-variant-sorting-fact-from-myth | 17:00 |
| Jigsy | >All plan B Covid restrictions, including mask wearing, to end in England | 17:07 |
| Jigsy | I really hope this comes back to bite everyone in the ass. | 17:07 |
| Jigsy | Esp. as cases are now going back up again. | 17:07 |
| Jigsy | Quelle Surprise. | 17:07 |
| Tuvix | That may have been a factor in the US doing worse than the UK starting at the onsetn of the Delta surge in mid-summer 2021 for both countries. The US had a marked change in fatal outocmes compared to the UK (and most of the other top-10 imapcted countries too) and hasn't recovered since. | 17:08 |
| de-facto | https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom | 17:08 |
| de-facto | cases went down, hence they had to do something? | 17:09 |
| Tuvix | The US is slightly less vaccinated compared to the UK, but it's similar enough that I don't think that alone completely explains the sustained difference. | 17:09 |
| edcba | do we have some interersting information about that omicron variant ? | 17:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Short-time Intervention in Post-Covid Syndrome Syndrome (SIPCOV): A Pragmatic Randomised Controlled Trial → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05196451 | 17:09 |
| Tuvix | If you use the 2nd graph from the top (the 'cumulative cases by date' chart) and set it to plot 'Deaths/100k pop' you can see the US is the one that since about Aug/Sept has a rise in death rate not seen by any of the other 9 lines. | 17:10 |
| Tuvix | Oh, forgot the link: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases | 17:10 |
| edcba | i mean BA.2 variant | 17:11 |
| de-facto | its lost the s-gene dropout afaik | 17:12 |
| Tuvix | AFAIK the sub-varients of Omicron are still being studied and not a whole lot is yet known, including broader implications or their presence. I may have missed some very recent news though. | 17:12 |
| de-facto | hence initially was not visible with the PCR primer set used for screening Omicron | 17:13 |
| * Tuvix meant of* their presence | 17:13 | |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_stealth_variant | 17:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: More than one in four Canadians support jail time for the unvaccinated, poll finds → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/s7vkhs/more_than_one_in_four_canadians_support_jail_time/ | 18:48 |
| LjL | uh, okay, that's a bit much, consider me in the 3/4 | 18:53 |
| peetaur | 1. lock up all the unvaxxed. 2. do some polls at shopping centers, etc. where you only find vaxxers. 3. garbage in garbage out | 18:54 |
| peetaur | they don't even link any source... they only say below one photo "Provided by National Post" | 18:58 |
| LjL | yeah it could be that the poll is bogus | 18:59 |
| LjL | some comments on reddit are along those lines (although people do tend to only know people in similar circles, so the "i don't know of those" anecdotes aren't themselves better than the polls), some other comments are... creepy | 19:00 |
| `St0ner | any of y'all caught the vid already? | 19:05 |
| lastshell | I had `st0ner | 19:06 |
| lastshell | highly possible was omicron | 19:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Health: New data show those who recovered from Covid-19 were less likely than vaccinated to get infected during Delta wave → https://www.statnews.com/2022/01/19/those-who-recovered-from-covid-19-were-less-likely-than-vaccinated-to-get-infected-during-delta-wave/ | 19:08 |
| `St0ner | same. it was much much milder than a regular cold | 19:10 |
| Tuvix | It can be, especially for the vaccinated. In the US, it's now killing about as many as Delta did during the worst weekly death rate for that varient, so it's by no means mild across the board. | 19:12 |
| `St0ner | yeah i got first dose in march and second in june. i'm on day 13 since first symptom (was just a headache, and i never get headaches), still have a mild cough | 19:13 |
| lastshell | `st0ner if you have a fitbit or something similar I recommend to monitor your hear rate after covid | 19:17 |
| `St0ner | yeah i do, i saw my RHR go up when my first symptoms appeared, then go down when i was mostly done with it. it peaked around day 4, started feeling better day 4 onwards and heart rate lowered accordingly | 19:18 |
| lastshell | did you feel tired some days `st0ner ? | 19:18 |
| `St0ner | a little bit, during days 3-4 of having suspected omicron | 19:19 |
| `St0ner | easy fix though, just went to bed earlier and slept more | 19:19 |
| lastshell | yeah, go easy on exercise the next week/month | 19:20 |
| `St0ner | definitely went easier on the exercise not by choice, but going as hard as i can without knocking myself out. the vid sure takes the wind outta your lungs | 19:22 |
| LjL | `St0ner, maybe consider stopping a bit shy of "as hard as you can" until you've recovered more fully | 19:29 |
| `St0ner | yeah that's what i meant by going as hard as i can without knocking myself out, stopping a bit shy of that point. been playing competitive sports 4-6 days a week for the past 15+ years, practically no one can do this unless they are extremely in tune with their body and know nutrition/foodscience extremely well | 19:36 |
| lastshell | so far I just been doing light resitance bands and walking | 19:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Cervical cancer: New screenings will save lives - top doctor: Many were worried after lifesaving tests dropped from every three years to every five in Wales. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-59995279 | 19:37 |
| lastshell | and I use to run with ankle weights and kettlebels but not yey :( | 19:37 |
| lastshell | waiting to recover of this | 19:37 |
| `St0ner | indeed, cardio work is tough when having the vid | 19:39 |
| summonner | okay so covid is over | 19:56 |
| summonner | restrictions rolling back all over the world | 19:56 |
| summonner | looks like everyone is going back to work now, so you'd better dryclean that pant-suit ladies ;) | 19:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Valneva’s Inactivated COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Shown to Neutralize Omicron Variant → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/s7x7w3/valnevas_inactivated_covid19_vaccine_candidate/ | 19:57 |
| Tuvix | summonner: US seeing as many deaths as during the peak of Delta. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases_7daydeathsper100k . I'm curious what you think is over about this? Compare to the pandemic-low back in July and further note that the death toll has been no better averaging over a couple weeks time to about five times that death rate. | 20:04 |
| Tuvix | This is the end of the pandemic how exactly? | 20:05 |
| Tuvix | More tragically, Delta took more lives in the youngest age-groups, the under-50's, during the Delta surge than it did during the prior winter's, while the over-50's actually saw less death. This is despite the peak of Delta being better overall, so younger age-groups are trending in the wrong direction here. | 20:06 |
| lastshell | Tuvix why we have more deaths right now if omicron had peak ? | 20:12 |
| lastshell | that is a little concernin | 20:12 |
| Tuvix | It's even worse if you break it down by age-group. Give me a few and I have a stark comparison chart I can upload. | 20:12 |
| Tuvix | It's mostly a combination of varients, the large number of unvaccinated, plus the lack of meaningful restrictions on social interaction that allow it to continue to spread, put people in hospitals, and kill. | 20:13 |
| lastshell | I hate to say this but is possible we are going to get 1M deaths in US currently we ae close to 900k | 20:14 |
| lastshell | (official numbers but im sure we already pass that number in real life) | 20:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Top Florida health official on leave over support for vaccination → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/s7xj6q/top_florida_health_official_on_leave_over_support/ | 20:16 |
| Tuvix | lastshell: https://imgur.com/a/TsumLeL | 20:21 |
| Tuvix | .title | 20:21 |
| Brainstorm | Tuvix: From imgur.com: Deaths by age range, pre-Omicron surges - Album on Imgur | 20:21 |
| Tuvix | Note how all of the younger age-groups are seeing more fatal outcomes with Delta, while the older age-groups are steady (for the 50-64 range) or declined (all of the top-3 oldest groups) | 20:22 |
| lastshell | holy smokes in in the range of 30-39 | 20:23 |
| lastshell | scary stuff | 20:23 |
| `St0ner | whats with that weird imgur link and chopped up source URL? why do people have problems just showing the source directly instead of halfassing shit into random image hosts? | 20:25 |
| Tuvix | `St0ner: Becuse the "source" requires about 10-15 minutes of messing with filters. | 20:26 |
| `St0ner | surely there is a more reputable domain name than imgur.com that can produce the same info? | 20:27 |
| Tuvix | `St0ner: Feel free to reproduce my work with the correct filter selection. My source listed in the photo caption, but it is NOT going to "magically" give you the same presentation. It gets chopped up because imgur refuses to paste it normally. BUt since you asked (and next time just request it) I'll link you them here. | 20:27 |
| Tuvix | `St0ner: The info is proced from CDC sources: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex-and-Age/9bhg-hcku (deaths by age group) and https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases_7daydeathsper100k . | 20:27 |
| Tuvix | You will have to adjust the timescale on the latter yourself to match up with the charts shown. | 20:28 |
| Tuvix | Further, you will need to do a lot of work to make the visizulation match the values I have. Would you like to know the filter and plot settings I used so you can reproduce it? It's more effort than just viewing the album I put together, but I'm happy to help you learn how my work was produced so you can explore some of these trends on your own. | 20:28 |
| Tuvix | Just let me know and I'll explain more, but in the name of not flooding the channel, I'll not do that unless you actually want more information. | 20:29 |
| lastshell | Tuvix is a solid guy he is been helping a lot in this channel | 20:29 |
| `St0ner | i just use the built in visualization tools of the various provincial/state/federal health authorities that have an official-sounding name. too many people get fake news off imgur and the likes | 20:29 |
| Tuvix | `St0ner: The *problem* for the third time now, is that it takes quite a bit of effort to actually use the visuzulations. You can see from lastshell's response for instance that the comparison I made is shocking enough to disturb some of the regulars here, and it is non-trivial to produce. | 20:30 |
| Tuvix | This is, in fact, why I've linked the sources, although I agree it's very annoying that imgur breaks them up like that on paste. I'm not sure if it'll let me fix, but I presume it's intended to prevent off-site linking. If you're concerned that I am linking false information, please verify the sources yourself, ideally before you make such a big stink in the channel here about it. | 20:31 |
| `St0ner | no big stink here, i literally said only 2 lines prior to this current one | 20:32 |
| Tuvix | This is work that I have personally made screenshots of, so if you have an issue with the data presented please bring it to my attention and not make general claims that it can't be trusted. I've linked sources specifically for this reason. | 20:32 |
| `St0ner | thanks for your contributions. no offense intended | 20:32 |
| Tuvix | I'm less offended and more taking issue with my creating an easily accessble version of data that is, quite frankly, somewhat hard to work with. | 20:33 |
| Tuvix | For instance, I missed 1 filter category that, until corrected, resulted in triple-counting deaths because they're listed multiple times so you can break it down by grouping, sex, and so on. I missed one, and realized that the numbers were bogus. | 20:33 |
| Tuvix | It's actually quite non-trivial to use some of this government data. | 20:34 |
| LjL | `St0ner, you're being unfair. it's true that images without clearly indicated sources are often a trick used for making misinformation harder to debunk, but when you say things like "<`St0ner> i just use the built in visualization tools of the various provincial/state/federal health authorities that have an official-sounding name", are you just pretending not to understand that Tuvix WAS using such a source (the CDC, for god's sake!), only, it needed a ton of | 20:36 |
| LjL | setup and didn't provide a way to directly share a URL with the setup included?! | 20:36 |
| Tuvix | Right, it's like a 30-step procedure to create that data, and an uncareful user will miss a step and end up with bogus data as a result. | 20:37 |
| LjL | de-facto, what was it, fatality rates doubled for every 5 years of age? (but maybe that's not true with Delta and Omicron anylonger) | 20:37 |
| LjL | %cfr 39 | 20:38 |
| LjL | %ifr 39 | 20:38 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, for every 1684 infections at that age, one would progress to a fatal outcome, on average. | 20:38 |
| LjL | %ifr 50 | 20:38 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, for every 447 infections at that age, one would progress to a fatal outcome, on average. | 20:38 |
| LjL | hmm, as a very rough comparison, that does seem similar to how 30-39 compares to 50-64 in your graph when looking at September. very very rought because i used the lower and upper extremes | 20:39 |
| LjL | %ifr 35 | 20:39 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, for every 2729 infections at that age, one would progress to a fatal outcome, on average. | 20:39 |
| LjL | %ifr 57 | 20:39 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, for every 192 infections at that age, one would progress to a fatal outcome, on average. | 20:39 |
| LjL | well, this is 14 times as many, but in your graph that's only about 5 times as many | 20:40 |
| LjL | so either the %ifr formula is no longer accurate, or there is a disproportion in vaccinated ratio between 30-39 and 50-64, or most likely a combination of both | 20:41 |
| Tuvix | If that's comparing infection-progression that may not map the same way, or if the death totals don't match what the CDC ends up with that too could impact the values. | 20:41 |
| Tuvix | There's also a 1 week and "up to 8 weeks" lag between deaths and when they finally get reported to the CDC, so time sime-shifting of actual-deaths to CDC-provisional reporting could occur. The longer description of these limitations is on the data source's link. | 20:42 |
| LjL | it's a thing de-facto came up with i think before Delta was even prevalent, i don't remember how it's obtained, but indeed it's got the prior that someone is getting infected | 20:42 |
| LjL | fwiw: int(round(186209 / 2**(age / 5.74485))) :P | 20:43 |
| `St0ner | LjL: correct, i didnt understand why a directly shareable URL with the setup included was not included at the end of the post, and didnt understand why the URL at the bottom was mangled and unclickable. the explanation was provided after and i have no further questions. normally when i see random internet people post some analysis on imgur or other nonofficial domains, i just skip the entire | 20:43 |
| `St0ner | thing and scroll to the source section so i can examine the source myself | 20:43 |
| `St0ner | thanks to all for bringing up interesting sources of data to look at | 20:44 |
| LjL | it would be nice if shareable URLs using GET or some other method were provided by all these sources, but sadly it's not always the case | 20:44 |
| Tuvix | Sure, you just have to be sure to set *all* the required filters to do that. Namely, the static filters: State: 'United States' Sex: 'All Sexes' Group: 'By Month' and then select *non* overlapping ages in the 'Age Group' filter. | 20:44 |
| Tuvix | Be *very* careful not to overlap any selections, or else you'll count deaths multiple times. You'll still need to mess with graph presentation to get a similar-looking chart to the ones I captured. | 20:45 |
| Tuvix | For instance, selecting ages 0-17 and 1-4 will double-count 1-4 age group deaths. | 20:45 |
| Tuvix | There's a reason I linked final images instead of a giant procedure in a pastebin to reproduce this ;) | 20:46 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i meant it would be nice if after you set all the filters, you could just end up with a long URL that *includes* all the filters you've set that you can just copypaste. like with offloop | 20:46 |
| LjL | but obviously that's up to the CDC | 20:47 |
| Tuvix | Yea, I haven't actually created an account on their site, maybe I should and see if I can save it and "share" it? | 20:47 |
| Tuvix | I'm betting it won't work like that, but I should poke more. The data here is really useful, after you do enough tweaking with filters and display knobs. | 20:47 |
| Tuvix | I just wish the CDC had more up-to-date death-by-vaccination status. That lags 2 to 3 months behind :\ | 20:48 |
| Tuvix | Really closer to 2 months, but data is only updated monthly, making it up to 3 depending on when the report came in. | 20:48 |
| Tuvix | 'eh, looks like I need a "Socrata ID" to do that… | 20:50 |
| LjL | sounds fun | 20:51 |
| Tuvix | I'll poke at it. It'd be nice if I could share links, but semi-worthless if anyone I share it with needs one too :\ | 20:51 |
| de-facto | .title https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 | 20:51 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From doi.org: Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications | SpringerLink | 20:51 |
| Tuvix | Yea, except that data is now 15 months out of date if it only considers reports publicly available as of Sept, 2020. | 20:54 |
| Tuvix | Interesting comparison to other fatal outcomes though, such as car crashes or seasonal flu. | 20:54 |
| de-facto | yeah but is it only a multiplicative factor (due to the exponential increase being a property of aging) or does the doubling time of 5,75 years change with variants and vaccines too? | 20:55 |
| Tuvix | Of couse, the counter-argument I can already here is "but I don't worry about dying in my car, so why should I worry about COVID?" Although if I could take a vaccine to reduce my odds of car crashes by over 90%, that'd be swell. | 20:55 |
| Tuvix | hear* | 20:55 |
| LjL | car crashes are a leading cause of death among people younger than a given age | 20:56 |
| LjL | when i stop to think about it, i find it rather mindblowing that we just accept it | 20:56 |
| `St0ner | the antivaxxers always use irrelevant comparisons like obesity, smoking, other noncontagious health conditions.. | 20:56 |
| Tuvix | Right, but my point is that it's not a good way to compare data when your target audience probably doesnt' consider that a serious risk. | 20:57 |
| LjL | in my circle of friends between high school and university, one died in a car crash and another nearly died (two other people that i didn't really know did die) | 20:57 |
| Tuvix | So saying "it's 10 (or whatever it is) times worse" won't really mean anything. | 20:57 |
| LjL | and i really never had many friends | 20:57 |
| Tuvix | Right, I think case-examples like that matter a lot more, especially if you're having a one-on-one conversation with someone. | 20:58 |
| Tuvix | I've seen that elsewhere; another channel I was in had a few of the vaccine-skeptics for youth, but that stopped pretty quickly when another shared that a younger teenager in their child's class had died of COVID just the week prior. | 20:58 |
| Tuvix | Or at least they stopped openly pushing that agenda after that story was mentioned. | 20:59 |
| LjL | hm, yeah | 20:59 |
| Tuvix | Easy to ignore say 103 0-17 age deaths in Sept 2021 (US totals per CDC data I linked above) but it's harder to ignore someone saying "I was personally impacted by this" | 21:00 |
| LjL | i guess it's partly out of decency ("I won't openly say nonsense like that anymore after hearing that") and partly just from considering individual cases with a lot more weight than statistics, even though rationally it should be the other way around. but that's how our brain works, we can try to rationally counteract it but it still works like that | 21:00 |
| Tuvix | Right. I think the "shock" factor plays too. So, 103 is about 100, which is 2 per US state. That's not "so bad" per month, right? Just 2 children? But now imagine that it was a gunman who travelled to each state and randomly shot 2 children. Same number of dead, but it "feels" different, or at least I know it does to me. | 21:01 |
| Tuvix | Of course, if it's random violence you can't do much to stop it, but the frustrating part for me is we *can* stop almost all of the death especially in younger ages (say, the under-50 group) easily. | 21:02 |
| Tuvix | COVID death that is. | 21:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Prior COVID-19 Vaccination and Infection Most Effective Against Delta Variant: The CDC reported that post-infection immunity paired with COVID-19 vaccination was very protective against the Delta variant. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/prior-covid-19-vaccination-and-infection-most-effective-against-delta-variant | 21:04 |
| de-facto | seasonal influenza also is an exponential of age (but with another factor in front of it) | 21:05 |
| de-facto | .title https://github.com/mbevand/covid19-age-stratified-ifr | 21:05 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From github.com: GitHub - mbevand/covid19-age-stratified-ifr: Calculates the age-stratified infection fatality ratio (IFR) of COVID-19 | 21:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Most side effects noted in COVID vaccine trials may be due to 'nocebo effect': Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Jan 19, 2022 The nocebo effect can happen because of preconceived notions in volunteers. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/01/most-side-effects-noted-covid-vaccine-trials-may-be-due-nocebo-effect | 21:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Coronavirus: Novak Djokovic has a major stake in firm working on a COVID treatment → https://www.politico.eu/article/novak-djokovic-firm-covid-treatment/ | 21:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: News Scan for Jan 19, 2022: No live SARS-CoV-2 in breast milk Remdesivir and severe COVID-19 More H5N1 avian flu in US waterfowl → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/01/news-scan-jan-19-2022 | 22:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR Science: New data shows how long protection may last from a COVID vaccine booster shot: Researchers now have the first data looking at how long that protection from a booster shot of the COVID vaccine will last and what the future of the [... want %more?] → https://www.npr.org/2022/01/19/1074172784/new-data-shows-how-long-protection-may-last-from-a-covid-vaccine-booster-shot | 22:33 |
| Arsanerit | Traffic kills a lot more and we can also easily stop almost traffic deaths by introducing a strict speed limit of 30 km/h (20 mph) on almost all roads. | 22:33 |
| Arsanerit | I mean, it kills more children in the US than 100 in two years. | 22:34 |
| Arsanerit | It also kills more than a million people in general world wide. | 22:34 |
| Arsanerit | Now, those deaths are not contagious, this is true. | 22:35 |
| Arsanerit | In fact, it is conceivable that someone who has either killed a child in a traffic accident, or lost their own child or sibling, will from then on drive more carefully. | 22:35 |
| Arsanerit | considering all ages COVID in wealthy countries kills about 10–20× more than traffic though, which is a pretty scary figure | 22:39 |
| lastshell | Bojo cancel masks | 22:39 |
| lastshell | https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60047438 | 22:39 |
| Arsanerit | who cancels Bojo? | 22:40 |
| lastshell | I guess the people of UK should do that | 22:40 |
| Arsanerit | can they? I think de facto it's in the hands of the Con backbenchers | 22:40 |
| Arsanerit | The UK people can do so in 2024 | 22:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Arcturus Therapeutics Inc: ARCT-154 → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/140/ | 22:43 |
| de-facto | whats that NPR "article"? its ONE sentence long, wow they really put effort into their publications | 22:48 |
| Tuvix | Arsanerit: That 103 dead under-18's was in 1 MONTH in the US. | 22:50 |
| Tuvix | Not 103 over 2 years. | 22:50 |
| lastshell | now they want to remove masks mandates in US | 22:52 |
| lastshell | crazy world we livign | 22:52 |
| Tuvix | Most places in the US already have no mask requirements, although some states and cities have done so. | 22:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Altimmune Inc: AdCOVID → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/75/ | 22:53 |
| Tuvix | Where I am there's not even a requirement to avoid going out if you know you're positive. Obviously it's strongly against all guidance, but my city, county, state, and federal rules would all permit me to for example test positive today and then go hang out at the bar or dine-in all day without a mask. | 22:53 |
| Arsanerit | Tuvix: Oh, oops :-S | 22:54 |
| de-facto | no wonder cases peak in US like crazy | 22:55 |
| de-facto | they may go down a bit in UK and also in US? | 22:56 |
| de-facto | the reaction from management: remove masks! | 22:56 |
| de-facto | do they want to prevent further decline of daily new infections for some reason? | 22:57 |
| lastshell | whygoverment always is clueless ? | 22:57 |
| Tuvix | The CDC isn't so much clueless as weak at messaging and communication. The politicians can't do anything for stricter requirements because enough complaints would have untold political blow-back, and congress at both national and state levels are in the same boat. | 22:58 |
| Tuvix | The science is very obvious if you just look at the numbers and the data, but that's not what motivates people to take action. Being told that your freedom is somehow "at stake" apparently matters more. | 22:59 |
| de-facto | its like a feedback loop: if incidence declines opening more transmission paths prevents that decline from progressing further, hence such a measure aims for stabilizing incidence at high levels | 23:02 |
| de-facto | what a crazy world | 23:02 |
| de-facto | if they want to deliberately infect their own population they should develop an attenuated vaccine | 23:07 |
| Tuvix | I mean, the vaccine is recommended for everyone, although there are certainly some politicians who are happy to downplay this (without actually recommending against it, technically) and making sure every time they talk they explain that it's a choice. Not stepping out into traffic on the 110 kph traffic is also a choice I have, but I'm hardly going to go tell everyone I know about this "choice" they | 23:09 |
| Tuvix | have… | 23:09 |
| de-facto | who is responsible for removing the mask mandates? | 23:10 |
| de-facto | who would want to stabilize 1.8k deaths per day in US? are they insane? | 23:12 |
| Tuvix | It got "down to" about 1.1k after Delta subsided, and as low as about 240 per day back in early July. | 23:13 |
| Tuvix | But remember, the choice by those opposed to more useful disease provention measures aren't saying "are we OK with these deaths" but "are you OK giving up your freedom to be maskless" (or continue to decline the vaccine, and so on.) | 23:14 |
| Tuvix | It's a false choice of course, because we could just as easily say that the rights of the public to not be infected and die is important, and in fact the supreme court made exactly such a statement back in the 1905 Jacobson v Mass. court case, but it's unlikely to be viewed the same way today based on the rulings we've seen thus far at the lower courts and the few cases that SCOTUS has actually taken up | 23:16 |
| Tuvix | that are similar in nature. | 23:16 |
| de-facto | well if they know the result of removing masks is opening transmission paths i am sure they are intelligent enough to understand that every covid fatal outcome is the result of a not prevented infection, so they implicitly know they are asking for stabilizing death rates at high level | 23:16 |
| Tuvix | Oh sure, the politicians who are lying (cleverly, of course) to their own public know what they're saying, but don't care. It'll get them re-elected. | 23:17 |
| Tuvix | Even the ones who for instance haven't been boosted aren't willing to say so openly, because they know it'll hurt their chances with the more moderate voters. | 23:17 |
| Tuvix | But they can't say they are boosted if it means they could loose support from the core base that wants to see that elected leader "fight back" against more requirements. | 23:18 |
| Tuvix | So, the leaders not following the rules refuse to admit they have broken them, while at the same time those that are following the rules can't admit they are doing so. We reward our leaders for lying to us, in general when this is the status quo. :( | 23:19 |
| de-facto | i think for a government that failed its population by tolerating and even actively supporting such high infection rates there is not political future | 23:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: Up to 76% of COVID vaccine side effects are just in people’s heads, study finds → https://arstechnica.com/ | 23:22 |
| de-facto | if the majority of people have some hurtful preventable loss of life in their social circles and know that government actively supported the spread of the disease that lead to that loss of life, why would they ever vote for that government again? | 23:23 |
| Tuvix | Slightly less than half the voters did just that in the 2020 election for president here. | 23:23 |
| Tuvix | And I'm not really sure what more the current administration could have done that would have mattered since more strict measures would likely have been contested immediately in court and very possibly thrown out as we've seen with the vaccine requriement on large employers that the high-court threw out. | 23:24 |
| Tuvix | If they got that thrown out, you can't really belive that a nation-wide requirement would have gone any differently. Now, technically it was OSHA, an *agency* that set that rule out, not the administration, but I don't actually think that would have changed anything. | 23:25 |
| de-facto | government should find solutions not excuses | 23:25 |
| Tuvix | If it was a presidential order, IMO it would have just been thrown out because that's the job of congress to pass those kinds of laws (or at least that would be the claim.) | 23:25 |
| Tuvix | Sure, but that solution has to come from agreement of both major parties in power here. We don't have meaningful agreement on these issues. | 23:26 |
| Tuvix | Maybe if the next varient is 10x worse in daily death tolls than this one we'll finally start to realize it's worth doing something about? | 23:27 |
| Tuvix | 1-2k dying a day is okay to ignore, but is 10k? 15k? | 23:27 |
| de-facto | just had exactly the same thought | 23:28 |
| Tuvix | Don't get me wrong; I really hope this isn't the case, but if it is, will _that_ finally be enough to act? | 23:28 |
| Tuvix | Or will we still go to defend the "freedom" of those we know are putting others at risk. | 23:28 |
| de-facto | ther is no such freedom | 23:28 |
| Tuvix | And yet certain media outlets here have politicians on every night who say there is. | 23:29 |
| Tuvix | Say it enough and a good portion of the public is willing to believe it. | 23:29 |
| de-facto | thats an unrealistic wish, its not sustainable in a globalized world to put convenience in front of preventing a dangerous pathogen spread | 23:29 |
| Tuvix | I mean, America has always seen itself as the land of dreams. Originally, the dream to come and find business and financial prosperity. Now the dream, perhaps the delusion is a better term, that if we just do nothing and hope hard enough it'll get better. | 23:30 |
| Tuvix | The whole notion of a "religious exception" is really odd too. Most attempting to use it don't actually believe that and use it as a handy excuse to avoid vaccination. One nurse who was willing to appear on national TV some time back stuck with me because she could not explain what part of her religion, specifically, prevented her from taking the vaccine. | 23:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: COVID infecting people via mail, frozen food? There’s no evidence to prove it | 19JAN22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/s822p9/covid_infecting_people_via_mail_frozen_food/ | 23:32 |
| Tuvix | She just had some generic "it's my choice" statement, but you'd really figure if a staunch believer of any religion held such a core value they'd be able to clearly explain it. | 23:32 |
| Tuvix | I'm also not painting everyone claiming that with the same brush, but given the droves of people trying to use it who are perfectly willing to take other vaccinations, it's a farse. | 23:33 |
| lastshell | wonder if this wil bite us again | 23:33 |
| Tuvix | farce* | 23:33 |
| lastshell | people assume all next variants are going to be weaker and weaker but we don't know for sure | 23:34 |
| Tuvix | It did as recently as 2019 with measles, but that just didn't kill as many people. | 23:34 |
| Tuvix | This is not a new problem, nor is it an uncommon problem. It just hasn't been _this_ big of a problem until now. | 23:34 |
| lastshell | US covid deaths is close to 3k daily | 23:35 |
| Tuvix | Not yet, no. | 23:35 |
| de-facto | peak maybe not average | 23:35 |
| de-facto | 1.7k-1.8k weekly rolling average | 23:35 |
| de-facto | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#graph-deaths-daily | 23:35 |
| Tuvix | Check the CDC's overall death rate: the chart needs to be at/above about 6.45 to be more than 3k daily: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases_7daydeathsper100k | 23:36 |
| Tuvix | Or that chart, I'm sure they're similar here. | 23:36 |
| Tuvix | My big concern is that we're nowhere near the July, pre-Delta level of death. Not to say the low of about 230 deaths per day should be our target, but we haven't even been remotely close to that ever since. | 23:37 |
| Tuvix | And we not only had vaccines by that point, but have had them for 6 months now since. | 23:37 |
| Tuvix | How are we loosing more people now than on average through the entier pandemic with vaccines that could stop over 9 in 10 deaths? | 23:38 |
| de-facto | well if places open up after vaccinations and actively increase infections rates of course that leads to increased disease and death | 23:38 |
| Arsanerit | In Germany apparently not much increase in ICU | 23:39 |
| de-facto | people become careless, open up infection paths, bring it home to the vulnerable that trust their family members etc | 23:39 |
| Tuvix | Sure, opening up has an effect too, but it's the combination. Opening up would have been less of a problem if we had say 95% vaccination uptake by those eligible. | 23:39 |
| Tuvix | And conversly, no better a vaccination rate than the US has today would have less spread if we had stricter controls on social gatherings and required quality masks where gatherings were permitted. | 23:40 |
| lastshell | I wonder if US will do the same | 23:40 |
| de-facto | in UK too, hospitalizations did rise with Omicron but not ICU | 23:40 |
| de-facto | https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare | 23:40 |
| de-facto | but deaths did rise | 23:40 |
| Tuvix | Yea, and parts of the US have had less stress on the ICUs, generally the more-vaccinated areas. | 23:41 |
| Tuvix | The Omicron spread is just now starting to really hit some of the more traditionally undervaccinated regions, so I'm expecting death figures to rise nationally in the coming weeks, not unlike the CDC predicted a week or so back now. | 23:42 |
| Arsanerit | Hmm... in my mental model, sorted by increasing severity, it's asymptomatic infection < symptomatic infection < seriously ill < hospital < ICU < death (long-covid is not covered by this model). I imagine people dying from COVID doing so in the ICU, which doesn't fit with the idea of deaths rising without ICU increasing. Unless survival rates in ICU are dropping? | 23:42 |
| Tuvix | Or the progression is mild enough that people don't end up in the hosiptal or ICU until very late in the process. | 23:43 |
| Arsanerit | If a progression ends in death, then the progression is not mild? | 23:44 |
| Tuvix | You could see more death without necessarily stressing the ICU as much in such cases, although that model isn't universally useful to explain why some hospitals/ICUs in the US _are_ hit very hard. Regional differences in hosp/ICU capacity and what portion of the population requires such services might be a useful subgroup analysis in such cases. | 23:44 |
| Arsanerit | Or are these figures mild cases dying with covid but not due to covid? | 23:44 |
| Tuvix | Some places are being hit very hard with ICU use though. Check out the COVID-ICU beds from the July 2021 to current here for instance: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend/oklahoma | 23:45 |
| lastshell | https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/18/who-says-omicron-wont-be-last-covid-variant-as-global-cases-surge-by-20percent-in-a-week.html | 23:45 |
| Arsanerit | If so many people are infected, then the number of people who die from whatever cause and coincidentally are seropositive with sars-cov-2 is going to increase. Could that explain the rise in "deaths with covid" without a rise in ICU? | 23:45 |
| Tuvix | I think the death totals only count those with a supplied cause of death as a result of COVID, not just died and who incidentally had tested positive during admission. | 23:47 |
| Tuvix | If you died of a car crash, blunt trauma, or gunshot and happend to have COVID, COVID was clearly not the cause of those deaths. | 23:47 |
| Tuvix | (not to mention it wouldn't explain the sustained rise in excess deaths we've seen either.) | 23:48 |
| Tuvix | In reality, we're sure to be undercounting the impact of the pandemic, although some of the undercount is really unrelated to SARS-CoV2 and is a result of COVID screwing up the quality of healthcare for everyone. | 23:48 |
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