| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Review: No role for convalescent plasma in most COVID hospital patients: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Jan 26, 2022 Overall, patients had only modest benefit, but some subgroups fared better. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/01/review-no-role-convalescent-plasma-most-covid-hospital-patients | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| Timvde | LjL: Do you have a tl;dr (or a link) about "the Moderna stuff"? | 00:04 |
| Timvde | Oh, nvm, the tweet a few lines higher up | 00:05 |
| LjL | yes | 00:05 |
| LjL | and what i said afterwards :P | 00:05 |
| Timvde | Sorry :P | 00:07 |
| Timvde | What's mRNA-1273 vs mRNA-1273.211? | 00:08 |
| Timvde | or am I missing that somewhere too? | 00:08 |
| Dredd | How many Omicron variants do we have now? 3? Any seem worse than the main one? | 00:09 |
| Timvde | Oh, the new Omicron-based vaccine apparently, nice | 00:10 |
| Timvde | Wait, is it? Such a small difference it seems | 00:10 |
| Timvde | Okay, got it. 211 was against beta, 213 is against delta, 529 is against omicron, it seems | 00:12 |
| Timvde | (but not mentioned in the tweet, probably the results aren't in yet) | 00:13 |
| ZdrytchX | .cases australia | 00:17 |
| Brainstorm | ZdrytchX: Australia has had 1.4 million confirmed cases (5.5% of all people) and 2522 deaths (0.2% of cases; 1 in 10174 people) as of 7 days ago. 58.0 million tests were done (2.4% positive). 20.5 million were vaccinated (79.8%). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia&legacy=no | 00:17 |
| Dredd | I think the Omicron specific Pfizer vaccine is just starting trials now | 00:24 |
| LjL | Timvde, not very nice given they don't seem to make a large difference, contrary to what my hopes were ;( | 00:26 |
| LjL | (i always said that i was betting on variant-specific vaccines, at least when mixed, being very useful even if not targeting *the* currently circulating variant exactly) | 00:26 |
| Timvde | LjL: the vaccine variants in the graph were not omicron vaccines | 00:27 |
| LjL | i know | 00:27 |
| Timvde | Oh, you already answered that before I sent it | 00:27 |
| Timvde | I'm a bit slow, I'm very tired actually and need to get out of bed in about 6 §hours | 00:27 |
| Tuvix | We saw this to some extent with the trials aginst alpha/beta, which weren't all that much better, and didn't indicate a benefit that was worth the cost (in time/expense/ROI terms) against the original vaccines.) | 00:27 |
| Timvde | Tuvix: I'm still hoping that a omicron-specific vaccine will be better | 00:28 |
| Tuvix | It'd be great if a re-tooled vaccine had the same improvement that Omicron has diverged from the original strain, but that's not necessarily what we'll see. | 00:28 |
| LjL | well, i didn't see it, i was kinda busy ranting that variant-specific vaccines weren't coming out, and evidently missed the poor results that *did* come out of them :P | 00:28 |
| Timvde | Although the graphs already indicate that the "normal" booster gives pretty good protection | 00:28 |
| LjL | Timvde, but by the time we have it we won't have omicron :\ | 00:28 |
| LjL | BA.2 already seems to be giving hints of being noticeably different | 00:28 |
| Timvde | noticeably different even? | 00:28 |
| Tuvix | True, although the real question is how much more benefit could a retrofitted vaccine have agianst the _next_ VoC to emerge. | 00:28 |
| Timvde | Hmm, it does have a handful of changes according to https://covariants.org/shared-mutations | 00:29 |
| Tuvix | That's the real question. The goal isn't to fix the problem we have now that will presumably be less of an issue in 3 to 12 months, but the next major incident we'll face. | 00:29 |
| LjL | Timvde, well it's different in a trivial but practically meaningful way in that it doesn't have STGF, which is useful since you can use PCR to tell it apart from BA.1, but then you can't tell it apart from Delta anymore | 00:29 |
| LjL | Timvde, and then the signs that it's actually starting to dominate in Denmark (probably just because they have better sequencing than other places, or we'd be seeing it elsewhere) seem to go a bit beyond "eh maybe just meaningless fluctuation" | 00:30 |
| LjL | Tuvix, yes that's the real question as far as i'm concerned and that is why i'm disappointed that Beta and Delta (or Alpha? whatever) vaccines don't do much better against Omicron than just a regular Wuhan shot | 00:30 |
| Timvde | Tuvix: but if we have variations that cover some of the more successful mutations, we could maybe cover some of the future variants already | 00:30 |
| Timvde | But I really don't know enough about it | 00:31 |
| Tuvix | Perhaps, although it's a question of how much VE we see relative to the vaccine payload changes. It sounds reasonable that a targeted mRNA payload would improve results, but that's not necessarily what we'll see. | 00:31 |
| Timvde | LjL: The thing is, those variants didn't have that much more in common with omicron than the original variant | 00:32 |
| Tuvix | And even if improved, is the cost of doing that (complexity, logistics, distribution, etc) worth the effort? | 00:32 |
| Timvde | They had a relatively small number of mutations | 00:33 |
| Tuvix | Let's say there's a 10% improvement, but to realize that improvement, it'll cost us more than 10% results to wait for instance for PCR testing to verify _which_ vaccine or antibody treatment to deliver; that's not really a value, in terms of medical outcomes. | 00:33 |
| Tuvix | That's a vast oversimplification, but medical science isn't always "if <X> do <Y>" | 00:33 |
| Timvde | It also appears that BA.2 has a bit *fewer* mutations than BA.1, according to covariants.org | 00:33 |
| LjL | Timvde, let's just hope they aren't the ones that made is presumably milder :P | 00:34 |
| Timvde | True :) | 00:35 |
| LjL | (assuming that's even the case since we still have claims that it's not really milder but it's just due to vaccination) | 00:35 |
| Timvde | Anyway, I really have to go to bed now :P | 00:35 |
| Dredd | I do have a feeling that an Omicron specific vaccine will help more with further boosters and Omicron derivatives down the line. Since Omicron is quite different from the lineages that were prevalent before and had more changes than were typical | 00:35 |
| Tuvix | More "mild" (per case incidence) or not, the US may be on track to have a higher death rate from death-rate-uptick to the inflection point of decline than Delta killed, in total. | 00:35 |
| Dredd | But then what about the non Omicron strains? Will we just be selecting for the next new evader of the old jabs? | 00:36 |
| Timvde | Dredd: that's also the hope I have | 00:36 |
| LjL | we need solid immunity in my opinion. if it's not possible to achieve, then, to say it in french, we're just fucked | 00:36 |
| Tuvix | What I'm curious to see is, in US terms, where the ages impacted relative to prior waves (winter 2020-21 and Delta summer 2021) are. | 00:36 |
| LjL | we need immunity where the virus just doesn't reproduce much | 00:36 |
| Tuvix | I'm really concerned that, despite about 44% the total deaths from Delta, the US saw over TWICE the death in all 3 lowest age-groups (ie: the under-40 year olds) compared to the Alpha / last-winter wave. | 00:37 |
| LjL | "it keeps you away from hospital" is all well and good in the short term but is our ultimate goal spending the rest of our lives just struggling to barely stay out of hospital? | 00:37 |
| Dredd | What's the US death toll up to now? | 00:37 |
| Tuvix | That's just disturbing that the older populations are doing better (I suspect due to vaccination and better isolation/protection factors) and the youngest ages, including the majority of the workforce, is dying in *greater* numbers. | 00:37 |
| Timvde | Dredd: about 900k | 00:38 |
| LjL | also i should look at wth is going on in France with their 500k infection in one day, although their case counting has always been pretty wonky | 00:38 |
| Timvde | (wow, more than I thought) | 00:38 |
| Tuvix | Dredd: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_totaldeaths_7daydeathsper100k | 00:38 |
| LjL | Dredd, is your bot even still working? | 00:38 |
| LjL | 'cause mine isn't | 00:38 |
| Tuvix | That shows both cummulative death and the rate of death; the latter of which should disturb anyone in the US or who tracks US stats. | 00:38 |
| Dredd | LjL @LjL:libera.chat: I think that eventually our immune systems will have fairly good coverage of the plausible mutation space and at that point it's kind of like the flu with updated jabs yearly for the vulnerable | 00:38 |
| Tuvix | We haven't been anywhere *CLOSE* to early summer 2021 death levels for 6 months now. | 00:39 |
| Tuvix | Best we've come is about 4.5 times that level, and that was *before* Omicron. | 00:39 |
| Dredd | And I honestly think it'll be maybe 2 more years to that point | 00:39 |
| Tuvix | America never "recovered" from Delta. We went from a poor Delta recovery (in terms of death rate) to the Omicron surge. | 00:39 |
| Dredd | LjL: Pretty sure covbot has been borked for ages | 00:39 |
| Tuvix | Worse, the under-18, 18-29, and 30-39 age groups have done notably *worse* in terms of death totals during Delta (summer 2021 in the US) vs. the preceding winter: https://imgur.com/a/TsumLeL | 00:41 |
| Dredd | 900k is kind of scary to think about | 00:41 |
| Tuvix | It's well over 1M if you consider excess deaths. | 00:41 |
| Tuvix | And since the US has no other obvious nation-wide disaster to consider, those deaths are fairly obviously due to the pandemic. | 00:41 |
| Dredd | How many deaths would the Spanish flu be if adjusted for modern US population? | 00:42 |
| Dredd | 3 million? | 00:42 |
| Tuvix | Even the left-leaning national news outlets live day to day on falling case/death rates (or even predictions) are viewed as a "positive" and "good sign" here in the US, but it's ignoring that we're nowhere close to what was actually a pretty promissing case/death/case rate in say early July, 2021 | 00:43 |
| Tuvix | We "hope" things will improve. We discuss what "might" happen if people go out in droves and get vaccinated and follow masking/isolation guidance. | 00:44 |
| Tuvix | It's a fantacy. | 00:44 |
| Tuvix | Fantasy* | 00:44 |
| Dredd | UK is still running hot here, up to 134k deaths | 00:44 |
| Tuvix | Yea, the change in PR to more lax rules won't change much, IMO. The people being careful will still largely continue to be, and the people who weren't will just feel slightly more free to scoff at the former rules. | 00:45 |
| Tuvix | It's much the same as with the rule "changes" in the US. | 00:45 |
| Dredd | I will remember when they predicated of we all did the right things well 20k deaths or otherwise pessimistically 40k deaths | 00:45 |
| Dredd | We blew through that | 00:46 |
| Tuvix | And I quote that very purposefully because the people igorning the rules were doing so back when they were (unenforced) requirements too, at various state and local levels. | 00:46 |
| Dredd | I agree, I also think that's what people will do | 00:46 |
| Dredd | Human psychology is woefully unprepared to behave constructively in a pandemic | 00:47 |
| Tuvix | We treat this as some kind of zero-sum game; that's a mistake. | 00:47 |
| Dredd | I think the behaviours are actually much better fit to roving epidemics spreading between tribal groups | 00:48 |
| Tuvix | Sure, shun the outsiders, protect your tribe, and so on. | 00:48 |
| Tuvix | Frankly, that's exactly what we're doing. Except "tribe" is now "those who refuse vaccines/maks/healthcare" | 00:49 |
| Tuvix | The irony is that the scientific method tells us that when our hypothesis is wrong, we're supposed to change our theory to match the emerging results from our trials. | 00:49 |
| ecks | i just want to order a damn beer after 10:30pm | 00:49 |
| LjL | i honestly thought, not really having followed the numbers closely for a while, that the EU was headed towards lower case counts, just because Italy seems to be and some other countries already seemed to before, but instead it just looks like it had a small slowdown at some point but is back up - not quite exponential but still linear with a high angle ;( | 00:50 |
| Tuvix | I don't know the attribution, but: "We don't use science to prove we are right; we use science to become right." | 00:50 |
| Dredd | Tuvix: Yeah, unfortunately humans have all those cognitive biases and stuff. Even the best scientists following the scientific method as best they can are also full of the same biases | 00:52 |
| Tuvix | Oh sure, but the insane ones are, in the face of mounting and obvious evidence agains their viewpoint, going to continue to push their agenda no matter the odds against them. | 00:53 |
| Dredd | Lol, Richard Dawkins is a favourite example of mine. He is irrationality rationalist | 00:53 |
| Dredd | Another one of the cases where I don't like extreme views | 00:54 |
| Dredd | The thing that annoys me about how things are handled is that we understand human behaviour in pandemics and we understand that they will happen according to certain psychological trends. But at no point did we try and actually use our better psychology to tackle the human behavioural issues this time | 00:55 |
| Dredd | Infact, we just behaved systematically exactly the same as in the pandemics a hundred years past | 00:56 |
| Dredd | And the population behaved the same | 00:56 |
| Dredd | With all the same bad results and loss of life | 00:56 |
| Tuvix | Perhaps worse than a century ago; in 1905 the SCOTUS ruled against an individual (ref: Jacobson v. Mass case) refusing smallpox vaccination. | 00:57 |
| Dredd | I don't know what I would suggest exactly to do differently, but doing the same thing again and again and expecting humans to behave differently is just silly | 00:57 |
| Tuvix | Omicron has indeed been compared to smallpox regarding its infection potential, in a naïve population. | 00:58 |
| Dredd | Neurologically we're exactly the same as we were back then | 00:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Menstruation and covid-19 vaccination: Vaccination against covid-19 provides protection against the potentially serious consequences of SARS-CoV2 infection, but as the vaccines were rolled out into younger age groups, clinicians were... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o142.short | 00:58 |
| Tuvix | Sure, your point is well taken; had we posessed social media and the near-instant transmission of information, video, and other communication, we may have seen a similar result to what we have today. | 00:58 |
| Dredd | I guess with the smallpox link, people would take that more seriously due to worse death rate and life long scarring / bad outcomes | 01:02 |
| Tuvix | Frankly, if outcomes were no differnet but people had the visual boils smallpox had, I'm convinced we'd have notably higher vaccination rates. | 01:06 |
| Tuvix | Vanity would prevail over anti-vax "concerns." | 01:06 |
| LjL | there was controversy over smallpox vaccination and even more so variolation though | 01:06 |
| LjL | (which is probably why the court had to rule) | 01:06 |
| Tuvix | https://historyofyesterday.com/two-smallpox-patients-from-1901-show-us-why-we-should-get-vaccinated-8aed4bbc151 | 01:07 |
| Tuvix | Both infected. Who would _you_ want to be? And now imagine this is your body's internal organs with respect to COVID-19… | 01:07 |
| LjL | if i'm already getting vaccinated, can i skip it in case i get squeamish with gory details? | 01:10 |
| Tuvix | Sure, it's nothing yuou don't already know. | 01:11 |
| Tuvix | Same old story: trade brings in a new disease, medical science discovers an amazing vaccine, yet a portion of the public remains highly skeptical. | 01:12 |
| Tuvix | Remind you of another, more recent century? :P | 01:12 |
| Tuvix | "The child that wasn’t vaccinated was full of spots and in a much worse condition than the vaccinated one. Everything that happened was normal because the vaccine is made to protect you from the lethality of the virus or disease, but it cannot make you 100% immune. This is the lesson anti-vaxxers (people against vaccines) need to learn, the vaccine is there to save your life." | 01:15 |
| lastshell | hey guys does re-infection of omicron is possible ? | 01:15 |
| Tuvix | lastshell: Presumably, yes. In *general* re-infection with the same varient as one originally had is less likely, but still possible; re-infection between different varients is much more likely. | 01:16 |
| Dredd | <LjL> "if i'm already getting vaccinate..." <- Matrix auto preview removed the ability for me to skip it | 01:16 |
| LjL | Dredd, your fault, auto-preview is default-disabled for the room :P | 01:16 |
| Dredd | I like it | 01:17 |
| Dredd | But not this time | 01:17 |
| lastshell | thanks Tuvix I try to no go often outside and when I go I wear a kn95 and other mask avobe that | 01:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from ##covid-19 Zotero group: SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Neutralization after mRNA-1273 Booster Vaccination: Type Journal Article Author Rolando Pajon Author Nicole A. Doria-Rose Author Xiaoying Shen Author Stephen D. Schmidt Author Sijy O’Dell Author Charlene McDanal Author Wenhong Feng Author Jin Tong Author [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/JQZF6BTB | 01:17 |
| Tuvix | lastshell: In general in areas of high spread masks are still a wise idea. Same would apply if you were to learn of on outbreak of smallpox, or even let's say some kind of non-COVID but nasty seasonal flu that was impacting far more than typical. You'd mask up, no? The same should be true of COVID, even *if* you've been previously infected with what you suspect is the same varient. | 01:18 |
| Tuvix | It could well be that your initial exposure was a very minimal one and a re-exposure to a higher concentration could still cause you problems. Or you could be exposed to a new varient, or even sub-varient. | 01:19 |
| LjL | i must admit that in this table here https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1486461444753281026 i would not be able to make out the claim that Topol is making myself (maybe reading the study would help) | 01:19 |
| lastshell | so far no re-infection but im scare to get that again | 01:19 |
| Tuvix | The reality is you can't know what your risk is until after you let your body take in the virus and see how well your body can fight it off. That seems to be an unnecessary risk to take when you could simply mask up in congregate settings of potentially risky outcome. | 01:19 |
| lastshell | I made the mistake to have family gathering in xmas you guys I recall mentioned to avoided | 01:20 |
| lastshell | you guys are very smart | 01:20 |
| Tuvix | I mean, you can't avoid all risk. I need to go shopping for groceries, and it's not cost-effective for me to pay to have them delivered. I'm not especially at risk, and I'm vaccinated + boosted, and have a high-quality well-fitting mask and filter configuration. | 01:20 |
| Tuvix | None-the-less, tomorrow when I shop could be the day I contract Omicron. | 01:21 |
| lastshell | yeah | 01:22 |
| lastshell | I hope not or if you get it is for your benefit in the long run | 01:23 |
| Tuvix | Sure, odds are good with my low risk status and health/age in my favor that even if I contract it it's a mild case with no or low symptoms. Still, not getting it is better, and better for my local healthcare system that I not risk being one of the break-through severe cases requiring treatment. | 01:24 |
| Tuvix | And even if I am, my attempt to reduce risk presumably both improves my personal odds and reduces strain on the system (maybe I only need a hospital bed and not an ICU) or, more likely, keeps me out of the hospital in the first place saving a bed for someone else who may not survive without professional care. | 01:25 |
| Tuvix | Your vaccination status may well have done the same; had you not been vaccinated at all, you could have been in a very different situation. | 01:26 |
| lastshell | yes I'm happy that me and mom were 3 jabbed | 01:26 |
| lastshell | she is over 60 and fat | 01:26 |
| Tuvix | Helathcare isn't so cut and dry. It's all about odds and prevention, not "do <this> then <that> happens" | 01:27 |
| lastshell | I was super scary for her | 01:27 |
| lastshell | oh man healtcare in US no to go in a rant | 01:28 |
| lastshell | but is very bad | 01:28 |
| ecks | I stayed with someone who had covid-19 for four days without apparently contracting it | 01:28 |
| ecks | The virus works in mysterious ways | 01:28 |
| LjL | these are tweeters whose tweets no longer end up here (except when retweeted) because they are too rowdy https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1486494278700306433 | 01:28 |
| lastshell | yes ecks one aunt over 60 as well didn't got covid | 01:28 |
| LjL | so not sure if we should thank Eric Topol for being boring | 01:28 |
| Tuvix | So you tested negative, or just showed no symptoms? Remeber that Omicron is often much more mild on a per *case* basis, but the unvaccinated are still at notable risk. | 01:29 |
| lastshell | LjL I thing I read time ago (not sure when sorry) that twitter allow edit tweets | 01:29 |
| LjL | Tuvix, actually, "cut and dry" is literally an important part of active healthcare :P | 01:29 |
| ecks | i showed no symptoms and did not get tested | 01:29 |
| LjL | lastshell, so far, it doesn't | 01:29 |
| lastshell | ok | 01:29 |
| LjL | editing tweets has long been a requested feature, but twitter hasn't wanted to do it, and i can see why | 01:29 |
| Tuvix | Yea, so "apparently" is a critical qualifier here. It could well have been you just had a very mild or completely asymotomatic case. | 01:29 |
| LjL | following the timeline and understanding what's actually being replied to is already complicated enough | 01:30 |
| ecks | it's possible, yes | 01:30 |
| Tuvix | Still, if vaccinated, your risk is orders of magnitude lower than an unvaccinated exposure. That's the real crisis. It's still a bit early to draw stats from the Omicron surge, but when I compared US (CDC) age data, despite roughly 44% the death toll during the worst of the Delta surge as compared to the prior winter surge, all age-groups under 40 years old did worse, seeing roughly twice the death. | 01:32 |
| lastshell | I think CDC mentioned that only people vaxxed with 4 comorbidites die | 01:32 |
| Tuvix | So, that means that despite under half the raw death totals, those age-groups died in relative portions 4 times that of the prior surge. That should concern anyone under 40. Even if your odd are still "better than" a 75 year old, your risk was higher in aggregate. | 01:33 |
| ecks | meh, i don't have enough mental capacity to be concerned at this point | 01:33 |
| lastshell | question why male also has more mortality rate ? | 01:34 |
| lastshell | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34242273/ related < | 01:34 |
| Tuvix | lastshell: In general perhaps, but beware generalizations. It's all a "factor" in your risk. I could probably improve my risk if I worked out more often, drank less, and got more consistent sleep. Yet I'm far better off than someone more exposed, less vaccinated, or who smokes. | 01:35 |
| lastshell | yes is like to many variables | 01:36 |
| lastshell | I been doing cardio this week (fast walk) heart rate is ok now | 01:37 |
| lastshell | but nothing to crazy for now | 01:37 |
| Tuvix | Remeber that minor variation is normal; simply due to body changes or even week-to-week stress (which you may not even realize fully yourself) you can have marked changes in bpm for similar activity. | 01:37 |
| lastshell | 100 bmp same when I was laid down with covid fast walking | 01:37 |
| lastshell | make sense | 01:38 |
| Tuvix | I don't get nearly as much high-level cardio in winter as I do in mid/late spring to late fall (I run more outdoors in parks when it's not frozen over) but I'll frequently peak at 150-170 bpm. It's rare I'm more than 175, so if I'm at or above that for any more than a minute or so during say a 5-7km run, that might be a possible concern. | 01:39 |
| lastshell | I got once 165 running in 2021 but I was not doing any exercise until mid 2020 | 01:41 |
| lastshell | I learn late the importance of exercise | 01:41 |
| Tuvix | Yea, I'm usually closer to 140-150, with peaks higher than that during the real rugged parts of the trail or when I go all out on a flat portion if I'm perhaps running a lower distance but higher-intensity route. | 01:41 |
| Tuvix | I value running outdoors more, so I'll get more variation depending on which trail I take and how much I want a harder or easier run dependign on my condition at the start. | 01:42 |
| Tuvix | Sometimes I'll really hit a hard/technical trial that might only be a 3km run, othertimes I'll take a flatter more relaxed trail but go for a 7km route. | 01:43 |
| Tuvix | A longer route I'll often aim for <150 bpm and focus on endurance more than peak output. | 01:44 |
| lastshell | sounds good | 01:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): My infectious disease epidemiology handbooks advise vaccinating children if safe & effective vaccines are available... They cut the risk of MIS-C (multisystem inflammatory syndrome) by >90% (which affects 1 in 3,000 children after a Covid infection). [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1486504672890429444 | 02:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity): This study shows that unadjuvanted recombinant spike or PACE-mRNA-spike can be used to safely boost mucosal immunity in hosts primed with conventional mRNA vaccine to reduce infection and prevent disease. A heterologous spike boost can induce [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1486510746796179463 | 02:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid vaccines: The unvaccinated NHS workers facing the sack: NHS staff explain why they have chosen not to have a Covid vaccine as the mandatory deadline looms. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60104140 | 02:53 |
| LjL | %title https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sdm941/the_new_normal_new_zealand_braces_for_shift_from/hudpxow/ god how i hate statements like this | 02:55 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From np.reddit.com: BoredAndBoring1 comments on The new normal: New Zealand braces for shift from Covid zero to Covid acceptance | 02:55 |
| LjL | "So NZ is finally accepting that Zero covid is a fucking myth? Took their time" | 02:55 |
| LjL | so because they do something but we don't, and eventually they have to go "oh well, our example is not being followed, can't keep doing it anymore", then it was a myth | 02:56 |
| LjL | idiotic | 02:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): More than 3,500 American deaths from Covid reported today@NewsNodes Quote from @KBAndersen, link below twitter.com/EricTopol/stat… pic.twitter.com/NPe4pCW14B → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1486518542556041217 | 03:02 |
| LjL | even less sensical reply: "Prepare for massive amounts of COVID-19 infections in New Zealand and potentially a new variant cooked at home in New Zealand." | 03:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): While many groups are working towards a pan-sarbecovirus vaccine as a shot, this is a nasal spray that may achieve variant-proof mucosal immunity—that would block transmission. An exciting strategy that deserves very high priority twitter.com/virusesimmunit… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1486547498193719301 | 04:58 |
| LjL | yes please | 05:15 |
| LjL | de-facto, ↑ | 05:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The Omicron video, accompanying its "unusually tightly packed receptor binding domain" takes the cryo-EM work to another level, by @sophie_gobeil and colleagues @TheDHVI, via @macroliter twitter.com/Mizimmer90/sta… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1486555490108657672 | 05:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Ross Kaminsky (@Rossputin): @EpsilonTheory Ben, I would suggest that not all people (whether ourselves or our neighbors) need the same protection. Need to focus on >55 yrs old and esp people w/comorbidities. Dr. Wallensky said 75% of vaccinated deaths had multiple comorbidities. Many of us [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Rossputin/status/1486563672059088896 | 06:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses | Imperial News → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/sdr01p/omicron_largely_evades_immunity_from_past/ | 06:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: Mercola and Kennedy sue Sen. Elizabeth Warren for combating their COVID misinformation: Quack tycoon Joseph Mercola and anti-vaccine crank Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., have filed a lawsuit against U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren [... want %more?] → https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/mercola-and-kennedy-sue-sen-elizabeth-warren-for-combating-their-covid-misinformation/ | 07:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Seven days in medicine: 19-25 January 2022: Covid-19Rebound warning as restrictions ease in EnglandHealth organisations warned that a lifting of plan B covid restrictions on 27 January risked a rebound in the number of infections and a rise in... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o194.short | 08:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 27, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/sdt9xv/daily_discussion_thread_january_27_2022/ | 09:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Coronavirus: German Health Minister wants EU to shorten COVID recovered period to three months → https://www.politico.eu/article/german-health-minister-wants-eu-to-shorten-recovered-period-to-three-months/ | 09:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Is it worth vaccinating children? unherd.com/2022/01/is-it-… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1486620240679215107 | 09:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Care home restrictions to be eased in England: From Monday, there will be no limit on visits to care homes and self-isolation periods will be cut. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60151596 | 10:15 |
| xx | well that's gonna be fun for care homes | 10:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Patchwork system for rationing a Covid drug sends immunocompromised patients on a ‘Hunger Games hunt’: Doctors worry that Evusheld tourism will favor the affluent and the savvy, undermining the careful frameworks they’ve built to [... want %more?] → https://www.statnews.com/2022/01/27/patchwork-system-for-rationing-covid-drug-sends-patients-on-hunger-games-hunt/ | 10:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): FHI “mener coronaviruset snart ikke lenger bør defineres som «en allmennfarlig smittsom sykdom»“Noen kan nok med rette beskylde dem for å lukke øynene for hva som da kan skje dersom en av de neste variantene medfører vesentlig økt [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1486636890254098433 | 10:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Great Omicron Spike Cryo-EM detail work here!Structural diversity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron spikeData revealed increased flexibility at the functionally critical fusion peptide site in the Omicron spike.biorxiv.org/content/10.110… twitter.com/Mizimmer90/sta… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1486640583598821378 | 11:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: NHS Tracker: How is the NHS in your area coping this winter?: Winter and Covid are putting the NHS under severe strain, find out what's happening in your area. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59549800 | 11:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: How can you help me integrate my long covid care?: When I contracted covid-19 my symptoms were mild and my initial recovery rapid. Then, overnight, everything changed: fatigue, brain fog, and neurological disturbances followed. I was experiencing... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.n3102.short | 11:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: HIV and covid-19 in South Africa: Consensus is growing that the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, which has 50 mutations differentiating it from the original virus, may have evolved during a prolonged infection in someone with a... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj-2021-069807.short | 11:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on country response measures to COVID-19: This downloadable data file contains information on non-pharmaceutical interventions (or response measures) that countries in the EU/EEA have reported to date. → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-data-response-measures-covid-19 | 12:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Strengthening COVID-19 information and vaccination caravans in rural communities from Romania: On 27 January, over 80 Romanian General Practitioners (GPs) and public health experts participated in an online workshop aimed at [... want %more?] → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/strengthening-covid-19-information-and-vaccination-caravans-rural-communities-romania | 12:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Assessment of the further emergence and potential impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern in the EU/EEA, 19th update: The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern (VOC) is rapidly replacing SARS-CoV-2 Delta in most European [... want %more?] → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid-19-omicron-risk-assessment-further-emergence-and-potential-impact | 13:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR Science: This Nigerian doctor has a tough new job: Stopping the next pandemic before it strikes: The World Health Organization has created a Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence. Dr. Chikwe Ihekweazu, who heads [... want %more?] → https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/01/27/1075515436/this-nigerian-doctor-has-a-tough-new-job-stopping-the-next-pandemic-before-it-st | 13:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Intranasal spike leverages existing immunity generated by primary vaccination to elicit mucosal immune memory within the respiratory tract. This enables induction of cross-reactive immunity against sarbecoviruses without invoking original antigenic sin. Repeated [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1486685883940196352 | 14:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Long term plan on living with pandemic to come in spring, says Javid: The government is to set out a plan for how the UK can manage covid-19 in the long term and to prepare for any future pandemics.Expected by this spring, the plan will be a cross department... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o235.short | 14:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): 2x mRNA-1273 elicited neutralizing antibodies against the omicron variant in 85% of the participants 1 month after, and in 55% of the participants after 7 months. A boost increased these 20x over the 1-month level and detectable in all after 6 months. pic.twitter.com/Dz52A6JPOE → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1486694392974958606 | 14:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Homologous and Heterologous Covid-19 Booster VaccinationsAll combinations are safe and give good neutralisation activity.nejm.org/doi/full/10.10… pic.twitter.com/COgEqSO7C1 → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1486695572618764290 | 14:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): Sorry, typo in last Tweet. Should say "partially escape antibodies that bind only RBD-**down** conformations." → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1486703576185335819 | 15:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Insulin aspart Sanofi, insulin aspart, Diabetes Mellitus, Date of authorisation: 25/06/2020, Revision: 3, Status: Authorised → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/insulin-aspart-sanofi | 15:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Pfizer’s PAXLOVID™ Receives CHMP Positive Opinion for Novel COVID-19 Oral Treatment from EMA for the treatment of COVID-19 in adults who do not require supplemental oxygen and who are at increased risk for progressing to severe COVID-19pfizer.com/news/press-rel… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1486723452383817740 | 16:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): In case required, Moderna starts clinical trial of booster shot targeting Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/mod… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1486727451031982092 | 16:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66): This filtered @Nextstrain build gives a nice visual display of how distant the Omicron family is from everything else, & how different BA.1 (21K) & BA.2 (21L) are from each other. Distance is in mutations.nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/gl… pic.twitter.com/IXOOFZ9yy4 → https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1486727651146428425 | 17:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): BA.1.1, die mutatie R346K heeft in het spike proteine, verspreidt zich ook op een aantal plekken. Die heeft vermoedelijk iets meer immune escape dan BA.1. twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/s… → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1486730737621475343 | 17:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): En misschien is vaccinatie met een vaccin dat relatief goed aangepast is aan Delta, gecombineerd met natuurlijke infectie door Omicron, het beste multivalent vaccin dat we op dit ogenblik ter beschikking hebben. Ook al hoop ik op versneld beschikbaar komen [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1486733961057357829 | 17:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): A Safety and Tolerability Study of Sotrovimab (VIR-7831) Prophylaxis Against COVID-19 in Immunocompromised Individuals → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05210101 | 17:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Phase 2b Booster Vaccination (TURKOVAC) Against COVID-19 → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05210179 | 18:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Some Americans are hesitant about Covid vaccines. But they’re all-in on unproven treatments: While largely baseless vaccine hesitancy has hindered the U.S. pandemic response, some Americans are tripping over themselves to take [... want %more?] → https://www.statnews.com/2022/01/27/some-americans-are-hesitant-about-covid-vaccines-but-theyre-all-in-on-unproven-treatments/ | 18:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Really sorry to see @ThatRyanChap leave Twitter permanently - as he always said he would.He’s one of the nicest guys on this platform and I’ve always enjoyed his cheery outlook and shrewd observations.TBH I think the days of COVID Twitter are [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1486751163810824197 | 18:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): From my @AEI colleague @slsatel “Don’t Forget the Immunocompromised” - The Dispatch @thedispatch #Covid thedispatch.com/p/dont-forget-… → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1486754059533099010 | 18:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Atlantic: Delta’s Not Dead Yet: Pour one out for Delta, the SARS-CoV-2 variant that Season 3 of the pandemic seems intent on killing off. After holding star billing through the summer and fall of 2021, Delta’s spent the past several weeks getting absolutely walloped by its [... want %more?] → https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/01/delta-omicron-showdown/621380/ | 19:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Denver children's museum closes temporarily after anger at its mask policy: The Children's Museum of Denver said that "regrettably, some guests who object to the Museum's mask policy have been inappropriately directing their anger toward our staff." → https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2022/01/27/1076136591/covid-masks-denver-childrens-museum-closes | 19:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): South Africa Omicron wave has really decreased but seems to be hanging on as school and universities returned, still over 4000 Infections a day and positivity rate >10%. Next weeks will really show if we are out of the woods... twitter.com/nicd_sa/status… → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1486767378839052289 | 19:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Lynne Eldridge MD (@AboutLungCancer): The COVID vaccine series reduces hospitalizations and deaths. It also reduces infections by a factor of 13, yet this isn’t enough when so prevalent. This thread is a reminder that virologists are actively seeking out solutions. twitter.com/virusesimmunit… → https://twitter.com/AboutLungCancer/status/1486770839483736071 | 19:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Listen: Janet Woodcock on Covid antibodies, vaccines for kids, and responding to Omicron: Who gets to be an "expert" on Covid-19? Are Americans entitled to drugs that don't work? And how does the FDA deal with states' rights? Find out on the latest… → https://www.statnews.com/2022/01/27/podcast-fda-janet-woodcock-omicron-vaccines-kids/ | 20:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Just published @Science 2 reports on the indirect protection of children via vaccination of parents in householdsMarked level of effectiveness during Delta wave in Israel for prevention of infectionscience.org/doi/10.1126/sc…science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1486779324954910721 | 20:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Moderna and IAVI Launch Clinical Trial of mRNA HIV Vaccine: The first doses of Moderna and IAVI’s mRNA HIV vaccine have been administered in the phase 1 IAVI G002 clinical trial. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/moderna-and-iavi-launch-clinical-trial-of-mrna-hiv-vaccine | 21:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Steve Miller (@SteveMillerOC): Covid IS over … if you are vaccinated.The “realistic long term strategy” is getting 3 mRNA vaccine shots.Here are annualized deaths per 100,000 people by age for the 2019 flu season and Dec 2021 covid for boosted (light blue), vaccinated (green), [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/SteveMillerOC/status/1486794772685619201 | 21:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): 4. First read out for VE vs Omicron fatality, in age 50+95% with booster (59% without) pic.twitter.com/3cJRe8GPQm → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1486798256239570944 | 21:34 |
| Tuvix | Quite the difference, that VE. Somewhat related, yesterday the US saw 2300 deaths, which can also be described as a rate of death equal to a 9/11 size loss of life from COVID nation-wide every 31 hours. | 21:37 |
| Tuvix | Cases (and more recently, the rate of new admits to the hospital) are on the decline, but deaths aren't likely to fall for another week or 2 based on prior trends. And of course, most of the deaths are the unvaccinated. | 21:38 |
| Tuvix | Not all areas are declining though, and some may not see peak cases for another week or two yet. | 21:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): DK report: "Despite historically high infection rates, admissions do not follow"At beginning of November, the admission rate was 3%, at the end it had fallen to 1.5%. Uncertainty regarding BA.2; seems more infectious, not more pathogenic.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1486800262954201089 | 21:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Important: efficacy against hospitalisation holds: here Pfizer 2x and Pfizer or Moderna as booster. pic.twitter.com/W74oEpbdSO → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1486803424561795080 | 21:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Vaccines reduce transmission! Yes, they cannot completely stop it; no vaccine can do that.Vaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israelscience.org/doi/10.1126/sc… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1486805742912946178 | 22:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Vaccines offer protection even within close contacts, such as households.Indirect protection of children from SARS-CoV-2 infection through parental vaccinationscience.org/doi/10.1126/sc… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1486805744745857025 | 22:13 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.13.22269257v1 | 22:23 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Viral dynamics and duration of PCR positivity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant | medRxiv | 22:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Studies highlight benefits of COVID vaccine booster, longer dose spacing: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Jan 27, 2022 Both studies show promise for boosters against Omicron, with one focusing on dose interval. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/01/studies-highlight-benefits-covid-vaccine-booster-longer-dose-spacing | 22:23 |
| de-facto | "We obtained longitudinal, quantitative RT-qPCR test results using combined anterior nares and oropharyngeal samples (n = 10,324) collected between July 5th, 2021 and January 10th, 2022 from the National Basketball Association’s (NBA) occupational health program." | 22:23 |
| de-facto | "A total of 97 infections were confirmed or suspected to be from the Omicron variant and 107 from the Delta variant." | 22:23 |
| de-facto | "Of 27 Omicron-infected individuals testing positive ≤ 1 day after a previous negative or inconclusive test, 52.0% (13/25) were PCR positive with Ct values <30 at day 5, 25.0% (6/24) at day 6, and 13.0% (3/23) on day 7 post detection." | 22:23 |
| de-facto | "Of 70 Omicron-infected individuals detected ≥ 2 days after a previous negative or inconclusive test, 39.1% (25/64) were PCR positive with Ct values <30 at day 5, 33.3% (21/63) at day 6, and 22.2% (14/63) on day 7 post detection." | 22:24 |
| de-facto | "Overall, Omicron infections featured a mean duration of 9.87 days (95% CI 8.83-10.9) relative to 10.9 days (95% CI 9.41-12.4) for Delta infections." | 22:24 |
| de-facto | "The peak viral RNA based on Ct values was lower for Omicron infections than for Delta infections (Ct 23.3, 95% CI 22.4-24.3 for Omicron; Ct 20.5, 95% CI 19.2-21.8 for Delta) and the clearance phase was shorter for Omicron infections (5.35 days, 95% CI 4.78-6.00 for Omicron; 6.23 days, 95% CI 5.43-7.17 for Delta), though the rate of clearance was similar (3.13 Ct/day, 95% CI 2.75-3.54 for Omicron; 3.15 Ct/day, 95% CI 2.69-3.64 for Delta)." | 22:24 |
| de-facto | "While Omicron infections feature lower peak viral RNA and a shorter clearance phase than Delta infections on average, it is unclear to what extent these differences are attributable to more immunity in this largely vaccinated population or intrinsic characteristics of the Omicron variant." | 22:24 |
| de-facto | "Further, these results suggest that Omicron’s infectiousness may not be explained by higher viral load measured in the nose and mouth by RT-PCR." | 22:24 |
| de-facto | "The substantial fraction of individuals with Ct values <30 at days 5 of infection, particularly in those detected due to symptom onset or concern for contact with an infected individual, underscores the heterogeneity of the infectious period, with implications for isolation policies." | 22:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Just over 40% of COVID-19 patients on average were being treated primarily for the virus in Wales last week. However the number is significantly higher for those in critical care - nearly 90%, according to Digital Health and Care Wales. twitter.com/bbcnews/status… → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1486813195796987904 | 22:33 |
| Arsanerit | Both my sisters live with people who have recently tested positive for Sars-CoV-2. They both have COVID-19-like symptoms. Yet both have repeatedly tested negative on PCR-tests. | 22:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): As the article says, “incidental COVID” can still add complications to health or treatment, and present challenges for patient management. 220 patients "probably" or "definitely" caught Covid while in hospital, according to Public Health Wales [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1486813197512450050 | 22:43 |
| de-facto | hmm false negatives are a thing, depending on sample taking and lab accuracy, yet PCR is very sensitive | 22:46 |
| de-facto | id say if they have symptoms they should isolate until they resolved | 22:46 |
| de-facto | samples taken from throat or naso-pharyngeal region may be a lot more accurate than those taken from nose alone | 22:47 |
| Arsanerit | They are isolating. | 22:47 |
| de-facto | also rapid antigen tests may have higher risk of false negatives, i hear that from quite some people, they have symptoms but tested negative with RAT yet get a positive PCR after a while | 22:48 |
| Arsanerit | They're both vaccinated and boostered and one of them has already had COVID-19 last summer (back then a positive test came before any symptoms). | 22:48 |
| de-facto | do you happen to know how the samples were taken? | 22:49 |
| Arsanerit | No. | 22:49 |
| de-facto | just curious | 22:49 |
| Arsanerit | I don't know. | 22:49 |
| de-facto | what symptoms they have? sore throat and headache? | 22:50 |
| Arsanerit | Might omicron breakthrough cases have higher false negative PCR tests than others? | 22:50 |
| de-facto | possibly | 22:50 |
| Arsanerit | One of them has lots of coughing (compared it with bronchitis) and feeling generally weak, the other flu-like with muscle pain and very tired. | 22:52 |
| Arsanerit | I hope they will be allright. | 22:53 |
| Tuvix | Without serious co-morbidities along with a possible COVID-infection, the currently-vaccinated have very good outcomes overall. Being sick is never fun, but it sounds like they're doing everything they can: testing, keeping away from others, and making sure symptoms don't get worse. | 22:55 |
| Arsanerit | Yes, I'm not very worried. | 22:55 |
| Tuvix | It could also be a non-COVID flu-like illness, which might also explain why a PCR test a day or two after showing symptoms could be negative. Other options might include a very robust immune response that has very low amounts of replicating virus where the sample is taken. | 22:56 |
| Arsanerit | Just a little worried, and somewhat surprised about the negative tests. One way to get a false negative could be that a human error has led to a mixup. Or maybe they're actually sick with something else. | 22:56 |
| Tuvix | PCR tends to be pretty good, although not without possible error as with any test. It's far more sensitive and accurate compared to an antigen test; the RATs have a fairly high false-negative rate, so much so that I've heard multiple doctors interviewed in the US suggesting that for a gathering where you want have higher assurance, taking 2 RATs 24-hours apart is more reliable than just 1. | 22:57 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: actually I do know a detail about the test; it says they took a sample from the throat and from the nose. | 22:57 |
| de-facto | hmm so if the sample was taken correctly and the lab did a proper job with the PCR it should be somewhat accurate after becoming symptomatic | 22:59 |
| de-facto | yet if they got symptoms they obviously got something that causes them | 23:00 |
| de-facto | how long ago was the latest possibility for contamination there prior to PCR sample taking? | 23:01 |
| de-facto | i mean above preprint demonstrates how the PCR positivity distributes | 23:01 |
| de-facto | its a function of time, so for sure results depend on that | 23:02 |
| Arsanerit | I don't know in detail. | 23:03 |
| de-facto | dont rely on accurate test results, yet if it is SARS-CoV-2 and they are vaccinated they most likely will be just fine after a while, and if its some other respiratory virus the same applies (they wont be immuno-naive hence will most likely be fine) | 23:05 |
| de-facto | and they should avoid infecting others in any case, so its also the same then | 23:05 |
| Arsanerit | Yes. | 23:07 |
| Arsanerit | As far as I know they are self-isolating except when taking official PCR tests. | 23:08 |
| de-facto | how old are they if i may ask? | 23:13 |
| Arsanerit | 40±2 | 23:14 |
| Arsanerit | one is pregnant, the other has three little kids, one who was sick and positive (7 year old, not yet vaccinated, meanwhile no more symptoms). | 23:15 |
| de-facto | 40 and double vaccinated and Omicron, thats probably lowering the probability for severe progressions by 2 orders of magnitude or such | 23:17 |
| de-facto | being pregnant is a risk factor though | 23:17 |
| Arsanerit | Or maybe it really is something else. | 23:17 |
| de-facto | yeah possible, but also false negative (depending on time) may be one possibility | 23:18 |
| Arsanerit | could be | 23:18 |
| de-facto | maybe repeat the test in a few days? | 23:19 |
| de-facto | if thats a possibility | 23:19 |
| LjL | %title https://mobile.twitter.com/caerage/status/1486054109673361411 | 23:20 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, the URL could not be loaded | 23:20 |
| LjL | BA.2 might not be harmless | 23:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): "having a single vaccinated parent was associated with a 26.0% and 20.8% decreased risk, and having two vaccinated parents was associated with a 71.7% and 58.1% decreased risk, in the early and late periods, respectively" pic.twitter.com/JnBJzYpU97 → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1486825525398183947 | 23:21 |
| Arsanerit | What's BA.2? The next variant? :/ | 23:22 |
| Tuvix | It's one of several sub-varients of Omicron. | 23:23 |
| Arsanerit | I see. | 23:23 |
| LjL | It's becoming dominant in Denmark | 23:24 |
| de-facto | wow how come their kids 0-2y are getting that many infections there? | 23:24 |
| de-facto | how are they connected? | 23:24 |
| LjL | And it doesn't have SGTF so it's distinguishable from other Omicrons by PCR | 23:24 |
| de-facto | or its just them getting diagnosed and the transmission by other carriers is not represented by the incidence any more "treat it like a flu"? | 23:25 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: Kinderkrippe? | 23:25 |
| de-facto | yeah "stealth-Omicron" | 23:25 |
| de-facto | yeah maybe | 23:25 |
| Arsanerit | I think in the nordic countries it's relatively more common for babies to go to the Krippe, whatever that is called in English, than in some other countries. | 23:25 |
| LjL | i would say at this point saying it's just one of several is reductive. https://covariants.org/ lists them separately, and BA.2 *lacks* some mutations BA.1 has, it's kind of a different branch | 23:25 |
| de-facto | well maybe some reduction in severity is caused by those mutations present in Omicron but not in BA.2 ? | 23:26 |
| de-facto | (just speculating) | 23:26 |
| LjL | maybe, but what's causing it to become dominant? and what's making infections in children spike in Denmark? | 23:27 |
| de-facto | e.g. if those missing mutations destroy a mechanism in "normal" Omicron but not so much in BA.2 | 23:27 |
| de-facto | Omicron actually is not so fit, its more immuno-evasive | 23:27 |
| de-facto | e.g. demonstrating how well it can evade immunity (or how well immunity protected us from Delta but not Omicron infections) | 23:28 |
| de-facto | and those very young are most likely immuno-naive anyhow, not so good | 23:28 |
| de-facto | i think its a big mistake to let it rip through kids (in school and kindergarden) because they are unprotected | 23:29 |
| de-facto | LjL, founders effect could also play a role if all those children are connected by transmission paths | 23:30 |
| oerheks | indeed. Sweden decides against recommending COVID-19 vaccines for kids aged 5 to 11 | 23:30 |
| Arsanerit | difficult dilemma if the alternative is school closures; omicron can harm kids but probably doesn't, but school closures certainly can also harm kids in a different way | 23:30 |
| de-facto | e.g. it happened to be BA.2 that lead to outbreaks in the children, hence its more of BA.2 circulating there? | 23:30 |
| Arsanerit | By "probably doesn't" I mean that most kids are probably not harmed by getting infected with omicron. | 23:30 |
| de-facto | testing could help | 23:30 |
| Arsanerit | I think they're doing lots of testing in schools already? | 23:31 |
| de-facto | but i just heard from parents how its done here: they let the parents sign that their kids tested negative on rapid antigen tests at *home* LOL | 23:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR Science: A second version of omicron is spreading. Here's why scientists are on alert: It's a sibling of the first omicron variant that swept the world. Is it more contagious? Does it cause severe disease? Will it keep [... want %more?] → https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/01/27/1076123109/a-second-version-of-omicron-is-spreading-heres-why-scientists-are-on-alert | 23:31 |
| Arsanerit | seems to depend on the district or even on the school how it's done | 23:32 |
| de-facto | instead they should require them to test at school under surveillance with PCR | 23:32 |
| Arsanerit | Not enough PCR capacity in Germany :-( | 23:32 |
| Tuvix | In some places in the US the tests are just at-home antigen tests, and self-reported by parents. | 23:33 |
| de-facto | i mean how hard can it be? let every kid spit into a test tube and send it to analysis, get the result in noon from the lab | 23:33 |
| Tuvix | ie: there's incentive to misrepresent the result if it has an outcome you would rather not see. | 23:33 |
| de-facto | yeah we DEFINITELY need more PCR test cap | 23:33 |
| Arsanerit | From my colleagues I have understood their kids have to do antigen tests in the school, but many of them choose to do a test at home anyway so they can stop the kid from going to school in the first place, as that's better for everybody. | 23:34 |
| de-facto | but the small labs prevented that their "cash cow" was killed yet (by a larger, more efficient, cheaper industrial grade lab) | 23:34 |
| de-facto | in Austria PCR may be just 6€, here its more like 40€ | 23:34 |
| de-facto | VIenna tests as many as whole of Germany or such | 23:34 |
| Arsanerit | so I read | 23:34 |
| de-facto | it just needs to get scaled up on an industrial level massively | 23:35 |
| Tuvix | If I go to my local pharmacy (which I think is now covered at least a handful of times montly if I want/need it) the test is something crazy, like $140, for either the PCR or "rapid" test (which I think actually has both a PCR in-pharmacy and antigen option, depending on which one you elect to get.) | 23:35 |
| de-facto | its insane that we still are talking about testing capacity more than 2 years into the pandemic | 23:36 |
| de-facto | how hard can it be to scale a *very simple* technical process? | 23:36 |
| Arsanerit | Not as hard as by-passing the lobby of existing testing centres? | 23:36 |
| Tuvix | There have been some colleges here that have done testing of the entire on-campus population with in-house labs. | 23:37 |
| de-facto | yeah it definitely can be done | 23:37 |
| de-facto | but for some reason lobby succeeds in preventing that | 23:37 |
| Tuvix | But yea, that's the rub; I'm sure the medical industry has that everywhere, but I know here in the US the medical service industry as a whole is enormously huge business. | 23:37 |
| Tuvix | US has one of the highest global costs of healthcare per-GDP, and you do that via those $140 PCR/antigen tests I noted above. | 23:37 |
| Arsanerit | I wonder if Lauterbach is working on and has the power to change that for the next wave. | 23:38 |
| Tuvix | Yes, "your insurnace" can cover that, but obviously the population is paying in aggregate to fund the insurance companies, so the citizens are still paying for it either way. | 23:38 |
| Arsanerit | Tuvix: I've seen prices approaching that only on hospital "rapid PCR tests for your vacation, ready guaranteed in 2 hours" type of tests. | 23:38 |
| de-facto | if case numbers are going down in the summer it may be hard for him to get increasing testing cap done | 23:38 |
| de-facto | i think it would be essential to scale PCR so massively that it becomes dirt cheap | 23:38 |
| Arsanerit | the turnaround time is still a downside compared to rapid tests for places like schools though | 23:39 |
| de-facto | because then we could screen for any disease and just bring it down by simple isolating the carriers for some time | 23:39 |
| Tuvix | Arsanerit: https://www.walgreens.com/findcare/covid19/testing#covid-landing-faq | 23:39 |
| Tuvix | From the "How much does COVID-19 testing cost" FAQ: The below prices represent what is charged to your insurance provider or to state or federal programs that cover the cost of testing. You will not receive a bill from Walgreens or from any lab partner. Diagnostic Lab Test (PCR, results time varies†): $129 Rapid Diagnostic Test (ID NOW, results in less than 24 hours): $129 | 23:40 |
| Tuvix | "The cost of Diagnostic Laboratory Tests is $129, which includes $100 for the laboratory services to process your test and $29 for your Walgreens visit. […] The cost of Rapid Diagnostic Tests is $129 which includes your Walgreens visit and testing services performed on site." | 23:40 |
| Arsanerit | otherwise testing is usually free at the point of charge here | 23:40 |
| Arsanerit | $29 to visit Walgreens ?! | 23:40 |
| Tuvix | It's "free" to the patient being tested, but yes, they net $29 for the service of performing the test. | 23:41 |
| Arsanerit | I thought it was a drug store, not a strip club. | 23:41 |
| Tuvix | Even if all they "do" is label it and ship it to a lab. | 23:41 |
| de-facto | if just ONE PCR test company would emerge on the market (and not prevented by lobby) that scales the testing costs down, prices in the whole (localized) market for PCR tests would fall | 23:41 |
| de-facto | e.g. like in Austria | 23:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: An Israeli study finds a slightly higher-than-expected rate of heart problems in vaccinated boys. → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/seaia3/an_israeli_study_finds_a_slightly/ | 23:41 |
| de-facto | they did it really well there | 23:41 |
| Tuvix | Remember, in the US, healthcare is a business. It's only "free" to the customer if you forget that the insurance (or the government) is covering that $29 pharmacy charge, plus tthe $100 testing cost. | 23:42 |
| Arsanerit | :/ | 23:42 |
| Arsanerit | goodnight | 23:42 |
| de-facto | gn8 | 23:42 |
| Tuvix | It's probably just some nurse aid doing the test anyway, and if it's on-site in the Walgreens pharmacy, it surely isn't costing anywhere close to $100 for staff time and consumable resources. | 23:42 |
| Tuvix | _maybe_ the tests are done under supervision of a licensed doctor or something, I don't know the legal requirements for any of that, but it sure as hell doesn't cost $100 USD for that. | 23:43 |
| de-facto | i bet there is 1-2 orders of magnitude of cost reduction in scaling PCR testing pipelines | 23:43 |
| Tuvix | Here, we bill based on what the "acceptable rate" is for a test. Since the rate-chart says it costs $100, that's what the performing lab charges. | 23:43 |
| Tuvix | If a lab can do it for $10, they basically net $90. Yes, I know it's not really that simple since lab equipment costs a ton to buy upfront and you reap costs back slowly over its operational lifetime, but it's still a solid order of magnitude off from what it really costs itemized over the service-life. | 23:44 |
| de-facto | its also about investment into a certain lab equipment, those are very expensive and only profitable if the PCR testing price stays within a certain margin for a certain duration | 23:45 |
| de-facto | also probably there are a lot of consumables that possibly can be rationalized away by some more streamlined process, i guess (but dont really know that) | 23:46 |
| Tuvix | Sure, but here again, that univseristy (I forget which, one that started testing all staff/students on campus early on) I mentioned did their testing in-house. They had the equipment already for their students and other facility needs, so it was far cheaper to do it themselves thay ship it out and pay another lab. | 23:46 |
| Tuvix | They're basically doing it at cost, since they already had the equipment and it's not like you're going to wear out the machines by using them a bit more. | 23:46 |
| de-facto | we had that too at our university there, in house lab tests, but once they finished their study they closed it down | 23:47 |
| Tuvix | They scaled up and had labs running nearly 24/7 at one point, testing tens of thousands of students I think it was twice a week. | 23:47 |
| de-facto | probably some internal politics about money or such | 23:47 |
| Tuvix | Sure, and even if the equipment is "free" to use, you've still got to staff it, and deal with reagents, and so on. | 23:47 |
| de-facto | technically they easily could do it, but may be uncertain about if a research lab should do service or sth like that | 23:47 |
| Tuvix | I mean, it's great that I can go sign up for a test and go to any of 3 pharmacies in under a 15 minute drive of my location, but I'm paying for it one way or another. Either by insurance premiums for private insurance, through part of my compensation if I get it through my employer, or collectively through taxes if someone is on public-aid for insurance coverage (or has no insurance, since this test is | 23:49 |
| Tuvix | still covered at the national level then.) | 23:49 |
| Tuvix | It's only "free" to me at the pharmacy if you ignore how _they_ are really getting paid. | 23:49 |
| de-facto | thats why i think it needs to get scaled, because then it will get optimized for costs | 23:50 |
| de-facto | to an industrial level, then make biweekly testing mandatory for everyone | 23:50 |
| de-facto | it really does not hurt to spit into a sample tube twice a week | 23:51 |
| Tuvix | Sure, but then all the private lab owners will lobby to prevent that because they have high-dollar invoices they'll be at risk of losing if that happens :\ | 23:51 |
| de-facto | the important point is that *everyone* has to do it and that its controlled | 23:51 |
| Tuvix | Or at least that's how it's likely to work here. | 23:51 |
| de-facto | yes of course | 23:51 |
| Tuvix | Really the "right" way, IMO, would be to have the government bid to have a single (or at least large-scale regional, maybe spanning segments of nearby states) lab be able to do this at-scale, and have a set price for the services leveraging economies of scale to get that done. | 23:53 |
| Tuvix | You can still offload the actual lab-work to a private business, but by nationalizing it and ensuring there's sufficient scale and avoiding price-gouging with the aim to turn a long-term profit beyond operational costs, you're ensuring the overhead is reasoanble and not funding enormous exec payouts. | 23:53 |
| de-facto | yes scaling should get enforced, to break down those that try to prevent it | 23:55 |
| de-facto | a price downscaling competition should get initialized on their market while still requiring quality assurance by incognito predictive tests by injecting samples with known results into their pipelines | 23:59 |
| Tuvix | There's just no way a pharmacy-provided "Rapid Point-of-Care (POC) - NAAT (ID NOW)" test that pharmacy chain here uses "really" costs them $100 to perform in-house. However, scale is a factor, since those chains are not very well staffed, so besides the "this is what insurance pays you" factor, I bet there's some logistics of opportunity-cost in having those nurses or doctors doing lab tests instead of | 23:59 |
| Tuvix | something else, like dealing with medication or seeing another pharmacy patient. | 23:59 |
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