| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): 4th shot? @IsraelMOH during Omicron wave, age 60+~400,000 people 4-dose~600,000 3-dose, ≥ 4 months3-foldprotection vs severe illnessgov.il/en/departments…nature.com/articles/d4158… @nature <-debate ongoing, by @clarewhatsonPotential for age 60+ but [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1487199383267397632 | 00:06 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Connecticut native helps develop affordable COVID vaccine: “it’s a vegan vaccine,” he added. “No human or animal cells or animal proteins.” ( Corbevax ) → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/sf3mjk/connecticut_native_helps_develop_affordable_covid/ | 00:26 |
| xx | a vegan vaccine? Is that what was preventing vegans from getting vaxxed so far? | 00:33 |
| LjL | i'm sure there is a fraction | 00:34 |
| LjL | like a very small fraction | 00:34 |
| LjL | yet a fraction | 00:34 |
| LjL | and then there are those objecting to the presence of fetal cells of a 1970s fetus | 00:37 |
| Tuvix | Most of _those_ objections are absolute nonsense. Many drugs have similar history of development, such as pills you'll find in nearly everyone's bathroom (or wherever they keep their routine OTC pills) | 00:41 |
| Tuvix | It's just "excuse tourism" basically. | 00:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Leana Wen, M.D. (@DrLeanaWen): Stunning data from @CDCgov: Unvaccinated people 65 & up are 52X more likely to be hospitalized from #covid19 compared to the vaccinated/boosted.For 50-64 year olds, the difference is 46X.Major difference in every age group, including 12-17 year [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/DrLeanaWen/status/1487208997140766726 | 00:45 |
| JanC | https://www.bbc.com/news/59999541 | 01:28 |
| Tuvix | Yea, I'd mused that the positive test result may have been created specifically to allow him such an "exemption" (in ATP's terms) although it wasn't permitted under the country border policies itself. | 01:32 |
| Tuvix | I read it as a likely example of those who can abusing the system of rules because they think they can get away with it. No differnet than the sports club I'm still avoiding claiming that they don't have to ask known close contacts to test (after 1+ hours of exposure right next to people who tested positive) citing that the rules don't require it. | 01:36 |
| Tuvix | The recommendation was to test of course if you were a close contact of a known-positive case, but it was only "suggested." So we didn't even notify those staff & club members to test. It's all just damn irresponsible. | 01:37 |
| Tuvix | In /2 | 01:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Bla (@sealsniper_urt): @itosettiMD_MBA @JT_Grindrod @Balgor11 Western elites (those who actually set COVID policy) have at their disposal something which China doesn't: liberal "democracy", which allows them to shift blame for COVID deaths to the population, "we are just representing [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/sealsniper_urt/status/1487227066797985798 | 02:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Sweden decides against recommending COVID vaccines for kids aged 5-11 → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sf5tqa/sweden_decides_against_recommending_covid/ | 02:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Long Covid: Hidden lung damage spotted on scans: A study detected abnormalities in people who had had Covid but did not need hospital treatment. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60154398 | 02:40 |
| oerheks | same lung damage is spotted before 2019. just saying. | 02:41 |
| Tuvix | Sure, and your car's temperature has changed before every time you turn it on too. https://xkcd.com/1014 | 02:42 |
| oerheks | me, car? | 02:44 |
| Tuvix | For an indeterminate "you" of course | 02:44 |
| oerheks | No, my ride .. https://photos.app.goo.gl/eU39YZ3tg5ArMXNNA | 02:45 |
| Tuvix | That would appear to be a percise object. https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/indeterminate | 02:52 |
| Tuvix | You also completely missed the point I was making, but since you didn't offer much thoughtful comment on the article, seemingly only the HTTP title, this seems rather moot. | 02:52 |
| Tuvix | "Researchers say the findings shed some light on why breathlessness is so common in long Covid - though the reasons for feeling short of breath are often many and complex." In case your mental timeline is off, long-COVID wasn't a thing before 2019, becuase COVID wasn't a thing before 2019. As the kids these-days seem to say, "just saying." | 02:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): More than 3,800 Americans died of Covid, as reported today @NewsNodes, bringing the cumulative US confirmed lost lives ~900,000. Half of these deaths occurred after February 1, 2021, when vaccines were widely available for high-risk individuals pic.twitter.com/1TeShNPe2a → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1487242518701899778 | 02:59 |
| oerheks | Eric Topol can make any statistic number speak | 03:04 |
| Tuvix | It's a telling statistic, yes. A better time-reference may be June, after which vaccines were widely available for everyone who wanted one. It makes the Delta wave especially needless in terms of the death since most deaths were in Aug/Sept, so the unvaccinated were choosing to put themselves at greater risk. | 03:08 |
| Tuvix | The under-40 age groups saw over twice the death totals during the Delta surge compared to the prior winter surge, and this despite the total deaths under half during the same Delta surge. | 03:09 |
| de-facto | https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions | 03:09 |
| de-facto | since 2022 9 of 10 cases Omicron, 1 week later 19 of 20 another week later 199 of 200 | 03:11 |
| de-facto | so of that many US citizens are dying Omicron is NOT harmless to them | 03:11 |
| Tuvix | It'll depend on how quickly the death rate falls, but it could well be Omicron takes more life than Delta did. | 03:12 |
| de-facto | at least in the non-vaccinated, because its so contagious it reaches more vulnerable in shorter time | 03:13 |
| Tuvix | At least for the wave of death, whenever the "worst" of the surge & initial recovery finally ends. I'll be watching how quickly and where the death rate levels off to, since the US is not likely to see any meaningful social restrictions (if anything, the weak ones in place in some local areas are likely to be relaxed further in the coming weeks) and vaccination uptake of the unvaccinated continues to be | 03:13 |
| Tuvix | quite poor. | 03:13 |
| Tuvix | New vaccinations (not boosters) have been on a falling trajectory despite many unvaccinated who are eligible, and the Omicron news only made a very temporary bump in that: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths_7daypeoplefullyvaccinated | 03:14 |
| de-facto | 7d moving average ~2300 deaths from COVID in USA | 03:15 |
| de-facto | oh 2600 even on that CDC data, its more recent | 03:16 |
| de-facto | steeply rising | 03:16 |
| Tuvix | Yea, it's just crazy. Pandemic average is about 1254 (using today's death totals over 699 days since 2020-03-01 as the 'start' of the deaths during the pandemic. | 03:16 |
| Tuvix | Were were right about at the aveage death rate over the whole pandemic "after" Delta was over, and I quote that because that was only the peak of Delta that was over; clearly with a sustained and fairly flat rate of death, Delta itself was not "over." | 03:17 |
| de-facto | i stay with that it is a mistake to let it "rip through" it was a mistake being made many times now, Omicron is no different | 03:20 |
| de-facto | how many mutants does it take for people to understand this? | 03:21 |
| Tuvix | I mean, rip-through was basically what Delta did to the US too, since no meaningful restrictions were in place, nor imposed during that surge. | 03:21 |
| de-facto | this pandemic will not end until *we* end it by not tolerating infections anymore | 03:21 |
| Tuvix | Delta just stayed with the whole country after the surge, at levels about 5 times that back in July when things were much better. | 03:22 |
| de-facto | it wont go away by simply ignoring its presence, on the contrary, such a mistake will claim many lives | 03:22 |
| Tuvix | Back in July, the lowest week of death the US has seen nationally from COVID, we were sitting at a rate of death equal to about twice the annual average of seasonal influenza deaths. | 03:23 |
| Tuvix | That was as "good" as we've ever been, and it was 5 times worse than that around the November/December holidays "after-Delta low" | 03:23 |
| Tuvix | (pre-omicron) | 03:23 |
| de-facto | yeah this summer it will go down again, an opportunity to get rid of it, but people do not understand that, they will cry for less restrictions and so on, unaware that they ensure it survives into the fall. also travel restrictions will not be enforced, unaware that its their absence importing the new mutants | 03:24 |
| de-facto | maybe after a few years at least some people may wonder about the causes behind the ever-repeating pandemic patterns | 03:25 |
| de-facto | with the more severe mutants at least some more strict restrictions were in place here, if that means less infections and thereby less deaths it may be not such a bad thing if a more fatal VoC appears | 03:29 |
| de-facto | only a question of time anyhow | 03:29 |
| oerheks | i think it is not about death rates anymore, lung/kidney/heart/brain/diaphragm issues will be the real damage | 03:30 |
| Tuvix | Omicron in the US may turn out to be more fatal if you count the number it's killed, even if it's not per *case* more deadly. | 03:31 |
| Tuvix | It's only "less severe" because of the case totals you're dividing those deaths into. | 03:31 |
| Tuvix | We've seen day-over-day increase in death rates so far for a week past the worst of Delta's per-day death rate, and given that it's winter (more indoor spaces being shared) and Omicron's effecitiveness at spreading into populations who haven't yet been infected, I don't expect the recovery from death rates to drop all that quickly. | 03:33 |
| de-facto | yeah deaths have to be counted per potential deahts (hence living citizens) not per infection, but since infection necessary for death by COVID, fatal outcomes can be prevented by preventing infections only | 03:33 |
| Tuvix | Right, lower the spread and you limit potential infections (a possible death in the future.) Improve outcomes and you reduce those that progress to a fatal result. | 03:34 |
| Tuvix | US is on-pace this next week to overtake Argentina in per-capita death rate over the pandemic. | 03:35 |
| de-facto | it also appears to be less severe because among the infected there are many breakthrough cases, yet they are protected from severe progressions by their vaccinations (9 out of 10 hospitalizations are prevented by boosters) | 03:35 |
| Tuvix | oerheks: I mean, you don't have to worry about your organs if you're dead, but indeed, some of the studies showing long-term organ impact is likely going to be with the world's population for years to come as side-effects. And such effects also seem to be worse in the unvaccinated experiencing such symptoms. | 03:38 |
| Tuvix | I worry about the impact on children too, many of whom couldn't get vaccianted (the under 5's in the US still cannot for instance) and what the true impact will be there long-term on development. | 03:39 |
| Tuvix | You had places like Flint, MI with their tap-water contaminated by lead which hit the children harder, but I don't think there's as much concern over the long-term results of COVID like there was there. | 03:39 |
| Tuvix | I suppose we "know" lead is a poison, whereas it'll take time for studies to show COVID impact mid & long-term. | 03:40 |
| de-facto | my prediction: there will be a anti-correlation between number of COVID infections and GDP per capita (relative to pre-pandemic years) | 03:42 |
| Tuvix | It might be a close correlation with hospitalizations than cases, assuming the cognative impact is reduced by vaccination and immune response. | 03:46 |
| Tuvix | closer* | 03:46 |
| bunbury | it would help if the media, showed the deaths, and constantly repeated that boosters would prevent them, and be in the streets with walk up clinics | 03:48 |
| de-facto | not only hospitalized get long-COVID though, but indeed the vaccinations lower the risk for that in breakthrough infections very significantly, we have seen multiple studies about that now already | 03:49 |
| bunbury | but the media, will only report X cases today X deaths , then back to silent , I assume because advertisers aren't into it , | 03:49 |
| Tuvix | Some national channels like CNN do that for their domestic audience, but it won't help other parts of "the media" that want to treat this as nothing but an overblown response. CNN's staff doctors are always driving home that 9 in 10 hospitalizations and even more deaths are preventable. | 03:50 |
| bunbury | ..and the Chamber of Commerce local Chapter | 03:50 |
| Tuvix | Messaging won't help if people either aren't watching outlets that discuss the science (even if only for a 2 or 3 minute segment) or who watch but refuse to believe it. | 03:50 |
| bunbury | Federal Govt has power to do things, this is a choice they are making | 03:51 |
| Tuvix | It also doesn't help with political leaders make this into an "Us vs. Them" war. | 03:51 |
| Tuvix | The US (if that's what you mean by federal) government has tried, and had some of their attempts reversed on legal grounds. The vaccination requirement on large-employers was reversed at the courts. | 03:51 |
| de-facto | we have to find back to a coherent containment strategy that aims to solve problems instead of blaming others for them | 03:52 |
| Tuvix | Don't be so quick to assume the feds can just magically declare that all the public "must" do something and it'll just happen like that; it won't. | 03:52 |
| bunbury | sorry, I don't see it at all | 03:52 |
| bunbury | quick, this is a passive strategy, just quietly remind me to get vaccinated, no | 03:53 |
| Tuvix | The real push would be to require it for "popular, fun, but technically optional" things like parts of Canada tried for instance with liquor and Cannabis sales. New vaccination rates shot up in that part of the country. | 03:53 |
| bunbury | even topol, complains the CDC is only recently even mentioning boosters for omicron, they are failing badly | 03:54 |
| de-facto | in the end its the people that are the carriers and allow transmissions, contaminating others with the virus, so whatever is required to change their behavior in that regard is necessary to regain control and prevent more damage in terms of lives and health | 03:54 |
| Tuvix | bunbury: Define "failing badly" -- the boosters have been shown to have a marked improvement on outcomes, but perhaps you're referring to the messaging and rollout of boosters in practical terms? | 03:54 |
| bunbury | 3000+ deaths per day | 03:55 |
| bunbury | no effort to control the spread | 03:55 |
| Tuvix | The majority of those deaths are in teh unvaccinated, so what does that have to do with boosters "failing" ? | 03:55 |
| de-facto | there will be no sterilizing immunity (preventing infection) with this virus | 03:55 |
| de-facto | neither by recovery nor by vaccination | 03:56 |
| bunbury | jeez just forget it man | 03:56 |
| Tuvix | I'm trying to figure out what you think is failing here. I'll agree the booster uptake isn't as high as we want, but trying to figure out if that's what you mean. | 03:56 |
| de-facto | the only way we know of that can prevent the spread is controlling transmission paths | 03:56 |
| de-facto | i guess it will take a few more bad winters until people begin to realize that | 03:57 |
| bunbury | my point is they are failing pure and simple, if you insist I tell you what they could do, your not very imaginative IMO | 03:57 |
| Tuvix | They're not "failing pure and simple" -- they're clinically shown to have a huge reduction in death outcomes. I can link clinical papers if you'd like. | 03:58 |
| bunbury | no sorry you are wrong | 03:58 |
| Tuvix | You cite death when prompted to show how boosters are failing, but it's not the boosted that are responsible for most (95% or so) of the death. | 03:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Roche looks to compete against a blockbuster with its newly approved vision drug: Roche received FDA approval for the first-ever bispecific antibody treatment for two common causes of vision loss, setting the stage for a battle with Regeneron, which markets a [... want %more?] → https://www.statnews.com/2022/01/28/roche-fda-approval-bispecific-antibody-therapy-vision-loss/ | 03:58 |
| bunbury | making excuses | 03:59 |
| Tuvix | It's not "us" here; it's the entier global scientific community. | 03:59 |
| LjL | <bunbury> even topol, complains the CDC is only recently even mentioning boosters for omicron, they are failing badly ← could be interpreted as the CDC failing, not vaccines failing | 03:59 |
| LjL | although the room for that intepretation seems to be shrinking here | 03:59 |
| Tuvix | LjL: Yes, this is why I asked, and now 3 times OP has claimed the detahs are the "example" why boosters are failing. | 03:59 |
| bunbury | never said it was the boosters | 03:59 |
| bunbury | said the US admininstration and Covid task team leaders | 04:00 |
| LjL | bunbury, but then Tuvix repeatedly talked about the boosters | 04:00 |
| LjL | misunderstandings can happen, but let's maybe try to pay more attention to what people may have meant | 04:00 |
| LjL | so often things escalate for no good reason | 04:00 |
| Tuvix | If you mean the CDC is failing, sure I'll agree their messaging has been piss-poor. | 04:00 |
| bunbury | shrug, whatever, | 04:00 |
| Tuvix | I don't think this is the same as "failing" but there's a lot to be desired in actually getting boosters (or even priming dose series) into arms. | 04:01 |
| bunbury | i'm pissed at how the media is handling this , and believe its not accidental | 04:01 |
| Tuvix | I record and skim through segments on a couple CNN shows (I can't stand having stuff on for too long at once personally) and they do an okay job of pushing vaccinations as the best way to reduce serious outcomes, but I realize not all TV networks are going to take the time to actually research the content the put out. | 04:02 |
| Tuvix | Some networks are indeed quite hostile to the idea of public health measures such as vaccination, masking, and isiolating when sick. | 04:02 |
| de-facto | .title https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1050721/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-4.pdf | 04:03 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From assets.publishing.service.gov.uk: COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 4 (UKHSA) | 04:03 |
| de-facto | "Two doses of either AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1-S) or Pfizer (BNT162b2) vaccines was associated with a vaccine effectiveness of approximately 25 to 35% against hospitalisation following infection with the Omicron variant, after 25+ weeks." | 04:04 |
| bunbury | its worse than that, Biden will have a press conference, does anyone push him, on why he is allowing all these people to die , no | 04:04 |
| de-facto | "After a Pfizer booster (after either primary vaccination course), vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation started at around 90% dropping to around 75% after 10 to 14 weeks. After a Moderna booster (mRNA-1273) (after either primary vaccination course), vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation was 90 to 95% up to 9 weeks after vaccination." | 04:04 |
| Tuvix | At least a couple times a week I see one of the regular docs on CNN anyway showing the graph where deaths or hospitalizations are plotted in 2 colors, one for vaccinated, another for unvaccinated: the distinction is clear. | 04:04 |
| de-facto | from their archive at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance-reports | 04:05 |
| bunbury | its not just about vaccines and personal responsibility | 04:05 |
| Tuvix | That's largely what it's about, yes. Something like 95% of the deaths would be avoided if the whole country was vaccinated. | 04:05 |
| Tuvix | So, that would turn 2300 deaths into perhaps just over 100. | 04:05 |
| bunbury | guess you don't get it, vaccinated or not is not the point | 04:05 |
| Tuvix | Seems to be a pretty big improvement to me, but it's not like the president of any country can force people to get injected. | 04:06 |
| de-facto | another interesting archive at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings | 04:06 |
| Tuvix | It is if you want to prevent deaths, which you just brought up. In fact it's the single biggest thing we could do to improve fatal outcomes. | 04:06 |
| de-facto | .title https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1050999/Technical-Briefing-35-28January2022.pdf | 04:06 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From assets.publishing.service.gov.uk: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (UKHSA) | 04:06 |
| bunbury | its a virus, an interconnected planet | 04:06 |
| de-facto | "Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease was similar for BA.1 and VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2) sublineages of Omicron. After 2 doses effectiveness was 9% (7 to 10%) and 13% (-26 to 40%) respectively for BA.1 and VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2), after 25+ weeks. " | 04:06 |
| de-facto | "This increased to 63% (63 to 64%) for BA.1 and 70% (58 to 79%) for VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2) at 2 weeks following a booster vaccine. There is no statistical difference in the vaccine effectiveness for BA.1 and BA.2 at present; this analysis will be iterated." | 04:06 |
| Tuvix | Sure, doing more than just vacinating is good too, but ignoring vaccinations when you try to blame a political leader for the deaths of the willingly unvaccinated who are the largest part in contributing to the cause of death doesn't really make sense. | 04:07 |
| de-facto | so in conclusion VE against infection with Omicron is not so good with 2 doses, but better with 3 doses, VE against hospitalization is quite good with boosters though | 04:07 |
| de-facto | so its a very good idea to get boosted to prepare for Omicron contamination | 04:09 |
| Tuvix | More testing, a strict requirement that positive cases stay home *AND* get *PAID* to do so could help too. But none of them as much as significantly more vaccination (including boosters) | 04:09 |
| Tuvix | We can talk about nationally-mandated paid sick leave all we want or other political things, but it's not like the executive branch can do that all in a vaccuum; it would really require congress to act too. | 04:10 |
| bunbury | keep putting words in my mouth, the media needs to push for a worldwide effort and stop just normalizing it | 04:10 |
| bunbury | its 3000/day; 90,000/month ; not normal | 04:11 |
| Tuvix | JHU reproted 2,359 today, and a 7-day rolling average of 2,267. Sources: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases and https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/covid-19-daily-video | 04:12 |
| bunbury | your all too deep in the studies , but carry on | 04:12 |
| Tuvix | CDC 7-day moving death average is 2300, new daily deaths 2,625. SOurce: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths_newhospitaladmissions | 04:13 |
| Tuvix | This isn't a study. This is published national data from the CDC and nearly identical numbers reported by JHU, who has been aggregating avialable data for the entier pandemic. | 04:13 |
| Tuvix | This is also likely to crest soon, likely the coming 1 to 2 weeks, and slowly drop off, so extrapolating that the near worst of a death spike is to be treated as a monthly avearge seems a bit naïve of a way to view the statistics. | 04:14 |
| LjL | de-facto, uhm that's on the population so presumably the efficacy for Moderna is for the half dose that's used in practice, not the full dose. and still it's more efficacious than BNT | 04:14 |
| Tuvix | In fact, we've only had 2 months with more than 90,000 deaths: Dec 2020 and Jan 2021. Source: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex-and-Age/9bhg-hcku | 04:15 |
| Tuvix | So we've been *WELL* under that death rate since then. Even the worst of Delta, Sept 2021, only had 62,555 deaths. Yes, that's still horrible, but also not the 90k quoted above. (same source used for this as just a moment ago) | 04:16 |
| de-facto | LjL, its UK data, so applies for whatever scheme they are using there for boosting | 04:16 |
| LjL | everyone is using half dose afaik | 04:16 |
| de-facto | yeah most likely | 04:17 |
| LjL | but the studies we had before were trials, and on the full dose | 04:17 |
| LjL | i've recently added *one* study to zotero that checks Moderna with *both* full and half dose | 04:17 |
| LjL | half seemed to fare very well, too | 04:17 |
| LjL | although i am of course also interested in the side effects of Moderna's half dose. we know that with the full dose, myocarditis is a bit of a problem even with just the second shot. i am concerned the third shot could be worse | 04:18 |
| LjL | btw i notice in the UK's report (page 10) that the data for weeks 5-9 actually have CIs overlapping between BNT and Moderna | 04:18 |
| LjL | so it's possible that in reality Moderna is about as good as BNT | 04:19 |
| LjL | though not very likely because the efficacy at weeks 2-4 is already higher | 04:19 |
| LjL | and there is no clear waning trend, while there is with BNT | 04:19 |
| de-facto | the last report i linked above is from yesterday | 04:19 |
| LjL | but of course we'd need weeks 10-14 to get a more certain idea | 04:19 |
| LjL | yes i saw the date | 04:19 |
| Tuvix | Still, a booster with either is clearly better than neither. I suspect any new VoC will make the distinction more moot, but that may not come until next winter if we're lucky, and if we're also lucky, it won't be notably worse at outcomes. | 04:20 |
| LjL | based on the graphs on pages 6 and 7, it looks like if you got Moderna originally, then which booster you get doesn't matter a lot | 04:21 |
| LjL | but if you got BNT originally, then there is a difference | 04:21 |
| LjL | (on effectiveness on symptomatic disease this time, before i was talking about hospitalization) | 04:21 |
| LjL | Tuvix, yes it's better than nothing, but having 95% or so protection vs having 75% makes me behave differently - perhaps to my detriment, but i'm sure i wouldn't be alone in that | 04:23 |
| LjL | with 95% i feel protected, with 75% i feel my risk is somewhat reduced | 04:23 |
| LjL | i may be clinging on to things that are clearly irrelevant by now, but 95% was originally the efficacy against *symptomatic disease*, not just hospitalization | 04:24 |
| Tuvix | Sure, although I guess I'm more interested in long-term post-acute recovery outcomes and the hospitalization/death outcomes. | 04:24 |
| LjL | i really would have hoped it wouldn't deteriorate so quickly | 04:24 |
| Tuvix | Protection against symptoms that have a near-identical outlook are very different than different VE at long-term problems or hospital/ICU/morgue stays. | 04:25 |
| LjL | well the first graph i talked about *was* about hospitalization | 04:25 |
| LjL | and it's 75% *against hospitalization* | 04:25 |
| LjL | (BNT) | 04:25 |
| Tuvix | I wonder if BA.2 has changed much here. I realize it's new enough that data is still emerging, but it has shown willinginess to become the domainate strain in some areas, like Denmark. | 04:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): That's quite a graphft.com/content/037a3a… @FT @jburnmurdoch @donatopmancini @mroliverbarnes lifting all restrictions as hospitalizations and deaths are cases (BA.2, Omicron) still increasing pic.twitter.com/0IBL1EddQz → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1487264933993615362 | 04:27 |
| de-facto | Denmark got cRaZy high numbers of infections | 04:28 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i saw some news yesterday that said vaccines are still efficacious on BA.2, but it seems a bit early for a proper assessment... i didn't click i think, but i assume it's either in vitro, or just a vaguely reassuring statement | 04:28 |
| LjL | <Brainstorm> New from StatNews: Early data indicate vaccines still protect against Omicron’s sister variant, BA.2: New data show that vaccines still protect against a spinoff of the Omicron variant, a welcome sign as the world keeps a close eye on the latest [... want %more?] → https://www.statnews.com/2022/01/28/early-data-indicate-vaccines-still-protect-against-omicrons-sister-variant-ba-2/ | 04:29 |
| LjL | <de-facto> "Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease was similar for BA.1 and VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2) sublineages of Omicron. After 2 doses effectiveness was 9% (7 to 10%) and 13% (-26 to 40%) respectively for BA.1 and VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2), after 25+ weeks. " | 04:29 |
| de-facto | Denmark got the highest incidence in all of Europe right now | 04:29 |
| LjL | <de-facto> "This increased to 63% (63 to 64%) for BA.1 and 70% (58 to 79%) for VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2) at 2 weeks following a booster vaccine. There is no statistical difference in the vaccine effectiveness for BA.1 and BA.2 at present; this analysis will be iterated." | 04:29 |
| LjL | de-facto, yes, that part is concerning | 04:29 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/0nEKuuX https://i.imgur.com/GOPeV2C.jpeg | 04:32 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID EU: Weekly Incidence per 100k - Album on Imgur | 04:32 |
| LjL | grrrr why of all things, do *media dedicated to science* fail to link to the study they're discussing? https://www.statnews.com/2022/01/28/early-data-indicate-vaccines-still-protect-against-omicrons-sister-variant-ba-2/ (although it's probably the technical report de-facto posted) | 04:32 |
| de-facto | weekly incidence is around 4.5k in Denmark right now | 04:33 |
| Tuvix | Interesting, p20 of the UK Tech Briefing today noted a possibly different "secondary attack rate" (odds close contacts become cases) | 04:33 |
| Tuvix | "(BA.2) cases in households (13.4%; 95% CI: 10.7%-16.8%) are higher than those for other Omicron cases (10.3%; 95% CI: 10.1%-10.4%). There is not yet enough data for analysis of secondary attack rates amongst non-household contacts of cases with genomically confirmed VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2)." | 04:33 |
| Tuvix | That's not a huge jump, but still notable, although the CI is a bit loose on the BA.2 analysis, but it's clearly higher whatever it is. | 04:34 |
| Tuvix | I mean, even something like CNN might not link the source, but they at least reference "CDC" or "JHU" or "UKHSA" or such, which is usually enough to find the data or study source combined with the topic. | 04:35 |
| de-facto | yeah i am not too worried about the BA.2 variant compared to Omicron its more or less the same still, a bit like that AY.4.2 variant of Delta in UK | 04:35 |
| de-facto | Omicron all together is a problem though | 04:36 |
| Tuvix | I think the 2 things of concern now are going to be 1) waning VE, which we're still waiting on practical ≥6mo info on, and 2) the possibility of a new varient different enough to reduce VE further. | 04:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from ##covid-19 Zotero group: Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-4.pdf: Type Attachment URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1050721/ Accessed 2022-01-29 03:34:08 Link Mode 1 MIME Type application/pdf → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/E6SMFURT | 04:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: A shot and a swab: New Hampshire to sell at-home COVID tests in liquor outlets: New Hampshire Gov. Christopher Sununu says he expects the at-home tests to be available at statewide liquor stores within the next two weeks. → https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2022/01/28/1076593232/rapid-covid-tests-new-hampshire-liquor-stores | 04:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Anti-vaccine Canadian truckers roll toward Ottawa, praised by Tesla's Musk → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sf9o5j/antivaccine_canadian_truckers_roll_toward_ottawa/ | 05:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 859: COVID-19 clinical update #99 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #99, Daniel Griffin discusses Omicron disease severity, neurologic manifestations in children, testing outcomes during multiple infections, boosters improve VE and VD, booster efficacy for ED and UC encounters, [... want %more?] → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-859/ | 06:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 29, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/sfdbm5/daily_discussion_thread_january_29_2022/ | 09:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): “there is no predestined evolutionary outcome for a virus to become more benign, especially ones, such as SARS-CoV-2, in which most transmission happens before the virus causes severe disease.” → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1487341818601959427 | 09:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in self-isolation, identified as close contact of Covid case → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sfee3a/covid19_prime_minister_jacinda_ardern_in/ | 10:29 |
| Dredd | I hear Elon Musk has been spreading some of his conspiratorial views on Twitter again | 11:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Anti-aging vaccine clears out dysfunctional cells that cause disease → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sfffg5/antiaging_vaccine_clears_out_dysfunctional_cells/ | 12:13 |
| Arsanerit | "anti-aging vaccine"? | 12:16 |
| xx | something I've been hearing about for decades, it's not gonna happen | 12:24 |
| MerlinMp[m] | Brainstorm: | 12:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Dries Bostyn (@DHBostyn): Ik heb zelf geen kinderen maar wel een neefje van 6 waar ik dol op ben. Mijn zus worstelde met de vraag of ze hem moet vaccineren. Er is een overvloed informatie te vinden, maar die schermt vaak met termen als "zelden", "weinig" of "soms". Wat zijn de relevante [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/DHBostyn/status/1487383381621063680 | 12:33 |
| Alex1138[m] | a native translate feature for matrix would be interesting | 12:37 |
| Alex1138[m] | in theory you could have a DeepL plugin for it or something | 12:38 |
| Klinda | is possibile to get reinfected soon after you healed from omicron? | 12:45 |
| xx | Klinda: yes. Possibly with BA.2 | 13:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): Great news piece @nature highlighting how many of our Ph.D. students and Post-docs worked really hard to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Below Upasana Rampsal preparing to do RNA extraction on samples from multiple African countries. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1487395249857216512 | 13:11 |
| xx | "soon" not being well defined though. I'd say you're safe for a couple weeks if you have a properly working immune system and have fully recovered | 13:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Diego Verdaguer, popular Mexican-Argentinian singer, dies of Covid → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sfh8rx/diego_verdaguer_popular_mexicanargentinian_singer/ | 13:49 |
| darsie | My flatmate solves crosswords and refuses to leave the kitchen so I can make breakfast alone. | 13:49 |
| xx | you have those antivax flatmates, right? | 13:50 |
| darsie | one | 13:50 |
| darsie | And one applicant who wants to test if she's immune. | 13:51 |
| xx | nobody's immune | 13:59 |
| darsie | We'll only know that once everybody's infected. | 14:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Atlantic: What Will the Next Variant Look Like?: To understand how the coronavirus keeps evolving into surprising new variants with new mutations, it helps to have some context: The virus’s genome is 30,000 letters long, which means that the number of possible [... want %more?] → https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/01/coronavirus-variant-after-omicro/621404/ | 14:18 |
| * darsie made muesli with mask and goggles. | 14:23 | |
| xx | using mask and goggles to make food is probably a good idea, irrelevant of any pandemic | 14:33 |
| ublx | goggles? | 14:35 |
| darsie | Eye protection. | 14:36 |
| darsie | You can get infected via the eyes. | 14:36 |
| ublx | sure, but i was wondering about the non-pandemic general food case for goggles | 14:37 |
| xx | you can also get chillies or lemon juice in your eyes | 14:37 |
| xx | goggles prevent it being sprayed into your eyes or you touching your eyes | 14:37 |
| ublx | safety first! | 14:37 |
| xx | smoke is also not nice for eyes | 14:37 |
| Klinda | is possibile to get infected if you open a door and rub your eyes? | 14:38 |
| xx | etc. basically eye protection is a must when cooking | 14:38 |
| xx | Klinda: yes | 14:38 |
| Klinda | lmao | 14:38 |
| Klinda | how much unlucky you can be | 14:38 |
| darsie | Don't touch your face. | 14:38 |
| xx | well you can get all sorts of other mess into your eyes, besides corona | 14:38 |
| xx | touching eyes is a bad idea | 14:38 |
| Klinda | also the nose ? | 14:38 |
| xx | there are people who have herpes in the nose and eyes | 14:39 |
| darsie | yes | 14:39 |
| Klinda | btw I don't really think someone get infected by that | 14:39 |
| darsie | My job was to visit ppl an collect gargle samples. We wore goggles and rubber gloves. | 14:40 |
| Klinda | is really worth disinfect befre you touch | 14:41 |
| Klinda | your eyes? | 14:41 |
| darsie | Yes, wash your hands. | 14:41 |
| darsie | with soap | 14:41 |
| Klinda | if you are outside no | 14:41 |
| darsie | Depens what you touch. | 14:41 |
| Klinda | btw I feel really scary to live like this | 14:42 |
| darsie | Get vaccinated. | 14:42 |
| Klinda | done | 14:42 |
| Klinda | I took the virus too | 14:42 |
| darsie | How old? | 14:42 |
| Klinda | xD | 14:42 |
| Klinda | ? | 14:42 |
| darsie | How old are you? | 14:42 |
| Klinda | 27 | 14:42 |
| darsie | You should be relatively safe. | 14:43 |
| Klinda | now I just don't care | 14:43 |
| Klinda | I mean I was at home for two years | 14:43 |
| Klinda | got infected by dad | 14:43 |
| darsie | You can get infected again, though. | 14:43 |
| Klinda | now I go out too | 14:43 |
| Klinda | xD | 14:43 |
| Klinda | darsie: how much time can I get infected again? | 14:44 |
| darsie | idk | 14:44 |
| darsie | IIRC it has happened after a year or so. | 14:46 |
| Klinda | some days ago I recovered | 14:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Moderna launches clinical trial for HIV vaccine that uses mRNA technology → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/sfhzxj/moderna_launches_clinical_trial_for_hiv_vaccine/ | 14:46 |
| darsie | How severe was it? | 14:47 |
| Klinda | sore troath | 14:47 |
| Klinda | fever | 14:47 |
| Klinda | cough | 14:47 |
| Klinda | like I felt bad for 4 days really | 14:47 |
| darsie | ok | 14:47 |
| darsie | Now you're good? | 14:47 |
| Klinda | it seems | 14:47 |
| Klinda | but I was positive after 10 days too | 14:48 |
| darsie | ok | 14:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Trucker convoy against vaccine mandates rolls through Ontario en route to Ottawa | CBC News → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sfi709/trucker_convoy_against_vaccine_mandates_rolls/ | 15:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Josiah 'So Mild' Grindrod (@JT_Grindrod): This was predictable and my concern. We have enjoyed "lulls" between waves until Omicron, those days may be over... twitter.com/maolesen/statu… → https://twitter.com/JT_Grindrod/status/1487426674220167168 | 15:15 |
| de-facto[m] | .title https://mobile.twitter.com/maolesen/status/1487250407860715521 | 15:32 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto[m]: From mobile.twitter.com: Michael Olesen (@maolesen): "OK Twitterverse, I've come across something very unusual in the data from Germany. Based on the normal pattern, omicron should be getting more dominant, but in Germany [...] | 15:32 |
| de-facto[m] | Delta increase in GISAID data from Germany | 15:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: The COVID-19 Storyline is the Greatest Scam in World History -- The Truth is This is a 'Pandemic of the Vaccinated' | 30JAN22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/sfj6r1/the_covid19_storyline_is_the_greatest_scam_in/ | 15:34 |
| de-facto[m] | So maybe Omicron and Delta coexist? | 15:36 |
| xx | well of course it is the pandemic of the vaccinated, most people are vaccinated now | 15:37 |
| de-facto[m] | Maybe recombine at some point if our insane leaders continue to let it rip through the population? | 15:37 |
| de-facto[m] | We urgently need much more containment | 15:40 |
| xx | nah, I'm just choosing to stay away from people. It provides me 100% protection against any infectious disease. | 15:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): Finally, they end with some highly relevant discussion about how all this will get more complicated as people increasingly experience multiple exposures to different variants / vaccines that elicit antibodies with different immunodominance hierarchies. (4/n) [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1487436850063048706 | 15:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Our covid times :-) pic.twitter.com/31wrxp7lws → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1487439891570954242 | 16:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The reduction of Covid lethality over the course of the pandemic in Englandft.com/content/037a3a… pic.twitter.com/7EnDXGPDdm → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1487441994850844672 | 16:13 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.28.477987v1 | 16:14 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Mapping SARS-CoV-2 antigenic relationships and serological responses | bioRxiv | 16:14 |
| de-facto | ^^ wow thats a very cool paper | 16:18 |
| de-facto | discussing antigenic maps | 16:18 |
| de-facto | "Here, we use antigenic cartography to quantify and visualize the antigenic relationships among 16 SARS-CoV-2 variants titrated against serum samples taken post-vaccination and post-infection with seven different variants." | 16:20 |
| de-facto | "We find major antigenic differences caused by substitutions at positions 417, 452, 484, and possibly 501. B.1.1.529 (Omicron) showed the highest escape from all sera tested. " | 16:20 |
| de-facto | "Visualization of serological responses as antibody landscapes shows how reactivity clusters in different regions of antigenic space. We find changes in immunodominance of different spike regions depending on the variant an individual was exposed to, with implications for variant risk assessment and vaccine strain selection." | 16:20 |
| Alex1138[m] | am i allowed to link something here or is it reserved only for select people? | 16:25 |
| Alex1138[m] | nothing in the topic about it so i assume i am | 16:25 |
| de-facto | if its empiric science with sources why not? if its propaganda its not welcome though | 16:27 |
| Alex1138[m] | https://youtu.be/G7fGXPzU24Y | 16:27 |
| de-facto | .title | 16:28 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From youtu.be: Great news from Africa - YouTube | 16:28 |
| de-facto | Dr. John Campbell on YT | 16:28 |
| de-facto | he always links sources, i like that about him | 16:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The rapid rise of Omicron in 3 universities, with high % vaccination, assessed with systematic weekly testing. Viral loads were lower (by Ct) for Omicron than Deltamedrxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/wOSm3pB9HR → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1487448204580835330 | 16:42 |
| Alex1138[m] | this room kinda mangles Brainstorm's links | 16:44 |
| de-facto | btw their theory that Omicron "vaccinates against other variants" is too simple, as shown in the preprint above it depends on overlap in the antigenic landscape | 16:51 |
| de-facto | degree of immunity depends on how much difference is present between a variant that caused the rise of antibodies and a later other variant contaminating a potential carrier | 16:53 |
| xx | aren't european countries opening up restaurants and travel to the unvaccinated now anyway? | 16:53 |
| de-facto | e.g. Omicron will rise good immunity to "Omicron alike variants" but not so good immunity against a variant that has many differences on its surface (compared to Omicron) | 16:53 |
| Alex1138[m] | so i guess we have to wait for delta to dissipate first | 16:57 |
| Alex1138[m] | if i understand correctly | 16:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Reducing Covid deaths by 99% and hospitalizations by 98% with vaccination and a booster pic.twitter.com/mMqpoRyzzr → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1487453577878511621 | 17:01 |
| Alex1138[m] | https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/seszk3/politicians_say_its_time_to_live_with_covid_are/huoa5ym/ this is an interesting comment | 17:02 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.13.22269243v1 | 17:03 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Limited cross-variant immunity after infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant without vaccination | medRxiv | 17:03 |
| de-facto | unfortunately looks like Omicron does not induce broad cross variant immunity | 17:04 |
| de-facto | in mice | 17:04 |
| de-facto | "The question arises whether rampant spread of Omicron could lead to mass immunization, accelerating the end of the pandemic. Here we show that infection with Delta, but not Omicron, induces broad immunity in mice. While sera from Omicron-infected mice only neutralize Omicron, sera from Delta-infected mice are broadly effective against Delta and other VOCs, including Omicron." | 17:05 |
| de-facto | i would guess that Omicron infection in humans induces immunity against Omicron alike variants and if the infected got a vaccination in advance also rises that vaccine protection (from memory B-cells) again | 17:12 |
| de-facto | that is why i keep repeating that we need multivalent vaccines that include all major (widespread) variants of the s-protein so that the immune system can get acquainted with all of them and put competent memory B-cells into a "library" that can be reactivated in case of contamination with a variant that is similar to one of those included in the multivalent vaccine | 17:14 |
| de-facto | we need to aim for a broader spectrum of antigenic surfaces in the vaccines, and since the emergence of a new VoC from a specific ancestor rises with its prevalence it makes sense to include all the widespread variants in a vaccine | 17:15 |
| de-facto | i guess since the vaccine manufacturers have no interest in "killing their cash cow" they would have to get forced to include ALL VoCs (listed in WHO) by risking to loose their approval if they dont comply | 17:16 |
| de-facto | why not retract their approval if they dont include a VoC that is listed by WHO with a deadline of 1 month? | 17:17 |
| de-facto | dont get me wrong, i am 3 times vaccinated with Moderna, its the best we have so far, but in my opinion there is much room (hence duty!) for improvement | 17:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Saturday 29 January 2022 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/sfl56u/saturday_29_january_2022_update/ | 17:20 |
| de-facto | .title https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status?country=~All+ages | 17:24 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From ourworldindata.org: United States: COVID-19 weekly death rate by vaccination status - Our World in Data | 17:24 |
| Alex1138[m] | i just got my booster 3 days ago myself | 17:24 |
| de-facto | vaccination boosting reduces the fatality rate (per 100k citizens) 97.4-fold in USA | 17:24 |
| de-facto | thats *two orders* of magnitude | 17:25 |
| Alex1138[m] | the thing is that i'm canadian, our shots were spaced out further, so i wonder if a booster was "as" recommended for us as for americans | 17:25 |
| de-facto | if the shots are spaced out further their efficacy may even be better (up to some spacing out of course) | 17:26 |
| Alex1138[m] | i guess kind of with the implication that the US "screwed up" the vaccine rollout (maybe in the sense that they had to do it that way to get the vaccines rolled out in time) | 17:26 |
| de-facto | here in Germany we had mRNA recommended scheme like 1st 6w 2nd 6m 3rd | 17:26 |
| Alex1138[m] | so i've been wondering about whether a booster is really needed in canada, also because vaccines don't seem to stop omicron transmissibility | 17:27 |
| Arsanerit | less than 6m to the 3rd now I think | 17:27 |
| de-facto | yeah | 17:27 |
| de-facto | because of Omicron wave | 17:27 |
| de-facto | its happening right now | 17:27 |
| Arsanerit | Alex1138[m]: booster reduces ICU and death considerably apparently | 17:28 |
| Alex1138[m] | got boosted regardless, but i would have also been fine going without, i don't know | 17:28 |
| de-facto | boosting helps a LOT also against Omicron | 17:28 |
| Alex1138[m] | globally or in the US? | 17:28 |
| Arsanerit | and apparently booster has some reduction in transmission too | 17:28 |
| Alex1138[m] | well, good | 17:29 |
| de-facto | .title https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1050721/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-4.pdf | 17:29 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From assets.publishing.service.gov.uk: COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 4 (UKHSA) | 17:29 |
| de-facto | .title https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1050999/Technical-Briefing-35-28January2022.pdf | 17:29 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From assets.publishing.service.gov.uk: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (UKHSA) | 17:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: After Omicron, some scientists foresee ‘a period of quiet’ → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sflilq/after_omicron_some_scientists_foresee_a_period_of/ | 17:30 |
| Alex1138[m] | my other thing with a booster shot (and i asked my clinic this also) is i just didn't want my shot taking away from someone else's shot or even first shot, in another country | 17:31 |
| de-facto | right now we got crazy high infection pressure, hence i think it justifies accepting an offer of protection by boosting vaccine status | 17:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The difference between vaccination vs vaccination + booster is quite significant, both for death (7-fold) and hospitalizations (5.6-fold). Outcomes per 100,000 people; inclusion of the unvaccinated on the above graphs leads to a false impression of 2 vs 3 shot [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1487463002064359424 | 17:40 |
| Arsanerit | I am not sure that practically you are taking away someone elses first shot if you don't take the booster. | 17:42 |
| Arsanerit | Unless you live in a country with very very low first dose vaccination rates, such as Malawi or other very poor countries. | 17:42 |
| de-facto | boosting also helps with lowering infection risk and lowering hospitalization risk by a lot, hence doing both, ending infection chains and freeing hospital capacity | 17:46 |
| Arsanerit | Today I learned that people who got their 2nd dose less than 3 months ago cound as "2g+" where I live. | 17:47 |
| Arsanerit | German rules are too complicated. | 17:47 |
| Arsanerit | Just require everyone entering certain closed spaces to test already. There are plenty of RAT testing facilities around nowodays. | 17:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): What's the diff between a chief librarian and a CDC director? When a chief librarian leads his staff from a 1000mi away, it's a scandal.When the CDC director does it during the deadliest pandemic ever, it's somehow not.Yes, literally phoning it [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1487465652021436416 | 17:50 |
| de-facto | yes we have RAT test facilities everywhere, yet they are a LOT less sensitive compared to PCR (for which we exceed lab capacity) | 17:50 |
| de-facto | a PCR here costs around 70€ while it costs only 6€ in Austria (our neighbors) | 17:51 |
| de-facto | they failed to build up appropriate lab capacity for the Omicron wave that behaved exactly as predicted btw | 17:51 |
| ecks | 6€ for whom? the customer/patient or the price for the healthcare sector? | 17:56 |
| Arsanerit | for the government I think | 18:00 |
| Arsanerit | or for the health insurances? In any case not for the customer/patient, unless it's purely for leasure. | 18:00 |
| Arsanerit | But when a PCR test is recommended it's paid for by someone else than the customer/patient. | 18:00 |
| de-facto | i think for the city Wien or such | 18:03 |
| de-facto | Vienna | 18:03 |
| de-facto | they have more than double the capacity of whole of Germany in Vienna alone | 18:04 |
| de-facto | LiveBrain (Vienna) vs ALM and SynLab (Germany) | 18:06 |
| de-facto | we should learn from Austria | 18:06 |
| Arsanerit | will we? | 18:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): Ter vergelijking: als we naar een land als Zuid Afrika kijken waar slechts een heel beperkt deel van de bevolking gevaccineerd is, dan zien we dat de omikrongolf obv oversterfte daar nog ca 25 000 doden zal maken (vs 230 000 bij 3 eerdere golven). [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1487471972586037250 | 18:09 |
| de-facto | depends on the lobby of SynLab i guess | 18:09 |
| Arsanerit | Lauterbach seems to blame the lack of capacity on his predecessor, which isn't wrong, but might suggest he plans to alleviate it | 18:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: After years of STRUGGLING with my productivity, I finally learned effective Prioritization → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/sfmk1h/after_years_of_struggling_with_my_productivity_i/ | 18:18 |
| de-facto | i hope Lauterbach does increase PCR lab capacity in Germany we urgently need it | 18:31 |
| de-facto | also in Austria they do "gargle tests" meaning they take their sample by gargling with a saline solution instead of nose or pharyngeal swabs | 18:32 |
| de-facto | such gargling tests cover the whole mucosal surface, and since Omicron may replicate in the throat more than in the nose a gargling sample may be more accurate, i wonder if there are studies about that | 18:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The Omicron wave in the US vs 6 European countries2-7 fold increase in death2-8 fold increase in hospital admissions40-50% less booster rate and absolute 10-20 per cent gap in 2-shot vaccination %@OurWorldInData pic.twitter.com/x59O326Ust → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1487479283182305282 | 18:38 |
| Arsanerit | I wonder how long it would take to increase PCR lab capacity. | 18:43 |
| Arsanerit | Those PCR labs could also be used for other viruses even? | 18:44 |
| de-facto | yes of course | 18:44 |
| de-facto | they just would need to know the primer set, then they could test for any virus | 18:44 |
| de-facto | hence it would be a good investment | 18:44 |
| lastshell1 | Hey guys I hear last few days about something called Neo-CoV from China ? | 18:56 |
| lastshell1 | is a new variant ? | 18:56 |
| lastshell1 | https://weather.com/en-IN/india/coronavirus/news/2022-01-28-faqs-everything-to-know-about-new-found-coronavirus-neocov | 18:57 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.24.477490v1 <-- this here? | 19:01 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Close relatives of MERS-CoV in bats use ACE2 as their functional receptors | bioRxiv | 19:01 |
| Alex1138[m] | i think (knock on wood) it's going to be a long time before anything displaces omicron | 19:03 |
| Alex1138[m] | which i know is not necessarily the case that omicron will mean other variants are no concern at all | 19:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Parental COVID-19 Vaccination Offers Substantial Protection for Unvaccinated Children: Before children were authorized to receive the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, living with 1-2 fully vaccinated parents significantly reduced [... want %more?] → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/parental-covid-19-vaccination-offers-substantial-protection-for-unvaccinated-children | 19:06 |
| de-facto | though that NeoCoV is entirely different to SARS-CoV-2 so it hopefully stays where it is and not jump over into human population | 19:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 'High risk' - PM Jacinda Ardern, Governor-General isolating after Omicron scare on flight → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sfnnj1/high_risk_pm_jacinda_ardern_governorgeneral/ | 19:16 |
| lastshell1 | afik neocov doesn't infect humans yet | 19:45 |
| LjL | oh lawd what is NeoCov now | 19:46 |
| lastshell1 | for my limit understanding a potencial new coronavirus if mutates more | 19:46 |
| LjL | i think we really need that pan-sarbecovirus vaccine | 20:02 |
| * darsie walked the staircase a few times. | 20:39 | |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: Omicron is a Multiply Recombinant Set of Variants That Have Evolved Over Many Months: When I first posted on this topic Dec 12, 2021, the additional Omicron variant BA.3 was not available to me for analysis. Recently, [... want %more?] → https://virological.org/t/omicron-is-a-multiply-recombinant-set-of-variants-that-have-evolved-over-many-months/775/2 | 20:53 |
| de-facto | .title https://covdb.stanford.edu/page/mutation-viewer#omicron | 21:22 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From covdb.stanford.edu: Stanford Coronavirus Antiviral & Resistance Database (CoVDB) | 21:22 |
| de-facto | Weekly incidence 19/20 was in the tens, 20/21 it was in the hundreds not 21/22 its in the thousands | 22:03 |
| de-facto | so 10-fold the infections every year in a row now | 22:04 |
| de-facto | next year N*10k, etc? wtf | 22:04 |
| Tuvix | Presumably it can't do much better at spreading than it is now, although more immune-escape could make the spread more effective, notwithstanding any changes that result to outcomes. | 22:07 |
| Tuvix | Omicron seems to be one of the most contagious viruses we've seen in recent centuries. | 22:08 |
| de-facto | well yeah but how do we know where is the limit? | 22:14 |
| de-facto | i.e. why would the next mutant not be even more fit? | 22:15 |
| de-facto | we tolerate that its optimizing on a massive scale with all those infections | 22:15 |
| Tuvix | True, although what we get next is really a mystery until we see it and spend some weeks figuring out how it responds to our existing mitigations. Meanwhile it has the advantage of spreading during those weeks. | 22:20 |
| Tuvix | As to optimizing, well, https://xkcd.com/1605 | 22:20 |
| Tuvix | (and an excellent mouseover too) | 22:20 |
| de-facto | i guess two things will happen in parallel 1) SARS-CoV-2 will come back in waves of variants with increased fitness and new properties 2) our immune system will become more adept to dealing with it every time (hopefully) | 22:26 |
| de-facto | how 1) can be mitigated by 2) is the question that will determine attack rate on hospitals and health problems | 22:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A shot in the darkActually about multiple shots, and not just vaccineserictopol.substack.com/p/a-shot-in-th… @SubstackInc → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1487536611839541250 | 22:28 |
| de-facto | thats why i find that preprint about antigenic landscape so fascinating, its exactly approaching this question (from the immunological perspective), so together with the quasispecies theory of viral evolution it may give us more insight into what really is happening at an evolutionary level | 22:30 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.28.477987v1 | 22:32 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Mapping SARS-CoV-2 antigenic relationships and serological responses | bioRxiv | 22:32 |
| de-facto | .title https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1001005 | 22:32 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From journals.plos.org: Quasispecies Theory and the Behavior of RNA Viruses | 22:32 |
| Tuvix | Sure, and what's good for the virus long-term in darwin terms may or may not be beneficial for humans in making this virus easier to live with. | 22:33 |
| Tuvix | It is quite silly to assume that it'll continue to provide less-deadily mutations, although if my prediction for Omicron death totals during the rise & fall of the pronounced "wave" hold, Omicron will end up taking more life than Delta's surge did. | 22:34 |
| Tuvix | That's mostly a factor of all the unvacinated it's managing to infect and then a subset of those won't make it, but we couldn't have that result without the very successful spread of this varient either. | 22:34 |
| de-facto | if SARS-CoV-2 stays with us for very long time it may also have impact on human genome | 22:35 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(21)00794-6 | 22:35 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.cell.com: Home: Cell Press | 22:36 |
| de-facto | "An ancient viral epidemic involving host coronavirus interacting genes more than 20,000 years ago in East Asia" | 22:36 |
| de-facto | <Tuvix> ... "Omicron will end up taking more life than Delta's surge did."... already happening | 22:38 |
| de-facto | .title https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1487479283182305282 | 22:38 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From twitter.com: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "The Omicron wave in the US vs 6 European countries 2-7 fold increase in death 2-8 fold increase in hospital admissions 40-50% less booster rate and absolute 10-20 per cent [...] | 22:38 |
| Tuvix | Well, the current rate of death has passed the worst of Delta in the US, yes, but there's still technically time for it to have less overall death if it were to sharply drop. I don't see that happening, certainly not based on the lackluster "recovery" after Delta. | 22:43 |
| Tuvix | We won't really know how bad the surge was until the surge is over, but the fact that it's easily surpassing the worst daily-rate for about a week running now is not promissing. | 22:43 |
| Tuvix | Using hospital admits as a time-marker for the estimated peak deaths. Delta's peak death rate in the US peaked about 3 weeks after the peak hospital admit rate. Since we saw the hospital admit rate peak on Jan-15, if that trend holds the peak death rate will be about a week from today | 22:46 |
| de-facto | it was obvious from the begin on when it was known that Omicron is so much more contagious (due to its immune evasion) | 22:48 |
| de-facto | then at least when leaders began to talk about "less severe" it was pretty clear we would end up with an onslaught of hospitalizations | 22:49 |
| de-facto | because 1) means faster spread 2) means less containment, so faster spread again | 22:50 |
| oerheks | those protests gatherings are horrifying, imho | 23:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The US will hit the ignominious number of 900,000 Covid deaths in a week, half of these occurred well after vaccines were widely available pic.twitter.com/rP4pWoNCCb → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1487549298795433985 | 23:16 |
| de-facto | sometimes i feel sorry for those that fall for conspiracy theories, because it may claim their life | 23:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Evidence on intra-host recombination of SARS-CoV-2 during superinfection by Alpha and Epsilon variants in USA - preprint → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/sftbtk/evidence_on_intrahost_recombination_of_sarscov2/ | 23:26 |
| Arsanerit | not everyone who protests against mandatory vaccinations believes in crazy conspiracy theories | 23:29 |
| dTal | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JiLcxpWzCrnwkndsT/long-covid-probably-worth-avoiding-some-considerations | 23:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): I mistakenly thought this guidance was new. It’s not. It relates specifically to isolation and quarantine and has been the guidance going back months. → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1487553694577172481 | 23:35 |
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