| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Great job team! We can now see that from almost 15m cases in England recorded since the start of the pandemic almost 600k (4%) were reinfections - i.e. where someone tested positive at least ninety days after their previous infection.Half of those have [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1488284928848637952 | 00:05 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Not sure why this took so long!Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Takes Key Action by Approving Second COVID-19 Vaccinefda.gov/news-events/pr… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1488288762538901506 | 00:15 |
| LjL | maybe because the myocarditis was somewhat worrisome...? | 00:18 |
| LjL | "never were vaccines approved faster" | 00:19 |
| LjL | "not sure why this took so long" | 00:19 |
| LjL | sometimes people should just shut up, including more prominent people with twitter accounts | 00:19 |
| de-facto | btw infection probably got a 10-fold higher risk for myocarditis or something like that | 00:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A combined Covid and flu shotFirst randomized trial of >300 people, age 65+thelancet.com/journals/lanre…Safety and intact immune response to both viruses in older adults; no immune interference for combo compared with shots given alone@LancetRespirMed pic.twitter.com/SSBcIsdl8M → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488296049051459584 | 00:44 |
| Klinda | de-facto, LjL: I did the test on saturday, the molecular one and tested negative... so I got negative between the 10th day and the 19th day | 01:12 |
| Bashstreet | ?? | 01:13 |
| Klinda | ? | 01:13 |
| LjL | ¿ | 01:13 |
| Bashstreet | You just randomly shared that info ? | 01:15 |
| Klinda | no I said that I was positive some days ago here | 01:15 |
| Klinda | xD | 01:15 |
| Bashstreet | And who would remember ? | 01:19 |
| Klinda | I remeber what de-facto said about the T cells B cells and all, why no one would rember it? | 01:19 |
| Klinda | I mean stop trolling or something like that no need ahahah, no waste time | 01:20 |
| LjL | I remember | 01:21 |
| ublx | ? | 01:23 |
| LjL | That's one was to get the point across I suppose | 01:24 |
| Bashstreet | Well that was the weirdest response I have got for long time. | 01:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): Another entrant joins the race: Shionogi's S-217622 SARSCoV2 protease inhibitor advances to Phase 3.Structure came from HTS, not designed (unlike Paxlovid or ours)marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SH… pic.twitter.com/OoFVzOCkaD → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1488306304271601665 | 01:33 |
| Klinda | it happens Bashstreet | 01:34 |
| Klinda | now I go to bed, no time to feed the troll, goodnight | 01:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: New Orleans will be the first major school district to mandate COVID vaccinations: Waivers for those opposed to vaccination are easy to obtain under state regulations, and schools will work with students [... want %more?] → https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2022/01/31/1077131726/new-orleans-will-be-the-first-major-school-district-to-mandate-covid-vaccination | 01:42 |
| Bashstreet | Well this channel sure has friendly people. | 01:43 |
| ublx | ? | 01:46 |
| Bashstreet | I think you very well know what I mean ublx lol | 01:49 |
| ublx | i think you imply you have never before joined this channel | 01:49 |
| ublx | then i think your first interaction was a discourtesy | 01:49 |
| Bashstreet | Well that would be.. correct (unless the time you kicked me) for asking a very question. | 01:50 |
| ublx | then you wonder at supposed unfriendliness | 01:50 |
| Bashstreet | I think if you consider my question "discourtecy" you might be a bit touchy. | 01:50 |
| ublx | perhaps | 01:50 |
| Tuvix | You were slightly rude to a regular here, claim "and who would remember." Many of us recall that conversation | 01:51 |
| Dredd | I've started going to the gym | 02:31 |
| Dredd | Hopefully get a bit healthier again this year | 02:32 |
| LjL-Matrix | I've treadmilled once and then given up | 02:33 |
| LjL-Matrix | Surprisingly I'm gaining weight | 02:34 |
| de-facto | i always drive with the bicycle (and fast because i am always too late :P) | 02:36 |
| Tuvix | There are technically some trails near me that are at least partially maintained in winter, but I don't tend to do much outdoor running until the snow melts properly in the spring. Once the state park trails are ice & mud-free again, that's a much more enjoyable way to run than pavement though. I haven't done indoor gym/treadmill running in about 10 years though. | 02:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Looks like the vaccine for children under 5 will be available sooner than anticipated washingtonpost.com/health/2022/01… @lauriemcginley2 @bylenasun → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488326928696111105 | 02:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): 10 billion doses given, <1 billion were boosters1 continent nearly left outnature.com/articles/d4158…and @OurWorldInData “It is a huge scientific achievement that ten billion doses of vaccines to a new pathogen were developed in two years from its [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488332336810713098 | 03:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virology.ws: TWiV 860: Evading a Toll on the road to RNA vaccines: TWiV reviews a seminal paper showing that chemically modified bases in RNAs suppress recognition by Toll-like receptors, a finding that that was essential for the development of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. → https://www.virology.ws/2022/01/31/twiv-860-evading-a-toll-on-the-road-to-rna-vaccines/ | 03:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Pfizer is expected to ask the F.D.A. to authorize its Covid vaccine for children under 5. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/shk7b8/pfizer_is_expected_to_ask_the_fda_to_authorize/ | 04:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines makes a life-saving difference to all countries. COVID-19 vaccine inequity leads to the emergence of new variants and new waves of the pandemic, while equitable allocation of vaccine doses reduces case counts and [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/shkjl9/equitable_access_to_covid19_vaccines_makes_a/ | 04:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Waiting and hoping: Canceled surgeries and busy hospitals take heavy toll on patients - Boston Globe (via MSN) → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/shlhrt/waiting_and_hoping_canceled_surgeries_and_busy/ | 05:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: New treatment set to help immunocompromised individuals during COVID-19 → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/shlsan/new_treatment_set_to_help_immunocompromised/ | 05:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Pulse oximeter readings for different ethnic groups unreliable in assessing severity of COVID-19 pneumonia → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/shm8wc/pulse_oximeter_readings_for_different_ethnic/ | 05:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Thousands stage peaceful protest in Ottawa against Canada's vaccine mandates → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/shmle0/thousands_stage_peaceful_protest_in_ottawa/ | 06:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Omicron: Vaccinated are less likely to spread BA.2, study finds → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sho788/omicron_vaccinated_are_less_likely_to_spread_ba2/ | 07:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from MedicineNet: (news): Is the ‘Stealth’ Version of Omicron Cause for Alarm? → http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp | 08:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): An excellent thread on the rationale behind dropping all COVID-19 restrictions in Denmark - even as cases are soaring. twitter.com/m_b_petersen/s… → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1488415225439264768 | 08:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 01, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/shpnpi/daily_discussion_thread_february_01_2022/ | 09:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Jeffrey Barrett (@jcbarret): Informative thread about how people in feel about their government's recent decision (surprising to many outsiders) to lift all restrictions. W/high vaccines & Omicron, there are no obvious options; data on the wishes of the governed are important to feed into [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1488422802701139969 | 09:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Denmark returns to 'life as we knew it' despite Omicron → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/shqaws/denmark_returns_to_life_as_we_knew_it_despite/ | 10:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Austria becomes first in Europe to make COVID vaccines mandatory → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/shqly5/austria_becomes_first_in_europe_to_make_covid/ | 10:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19: Two cases in Tonga, country to enter lockdown: reports → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/shqvwh/covid19_two_cases_in_tonga_country_to_enter/ | 10:40 |
| Dredd | LjL: isn't Tonga where tinwhiskers lives? | 11:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: From GP to government adviser: Karen Gully: “Here comes the enemy” is something Karen Gully, professional adviser to the Strategic Programme for Primary Care in Wales and adviser to the post-covid recovery programme at Aneurin Bevan University... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o212.short | 11:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: ECDC: Data on the daily number of new reported COVID-19 cases and deaths by EU/EEA country → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/data-daily-new-cases-covid-19-eueea-country | 12:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on COVID-19 vaccination in the EU/EEA: Data in various file formats with information on COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, manufacturers, and target groups in the EU/EEA. → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/data-covid-19-vaccination-eu-eea | 12:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: ECDC: Data for the maps in support of the Council Recommendation on a coordinated approach to the restriction of free movement in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the EU/EEA → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/indicators-maps-support-council-recommendation | 12:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Atlantic: We’re Thinking About Endemicity All Wrong: By now, we’ve all heard some version of how this ends . The same story has certainly been told often enough: We missed our chance to wipe the new coronavirus out, and now we’re stuck with it. Our vaccines are stellar at [... want %more?] → https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/endemicity-means-nothing/621423/ | 13:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 01FEB22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/shtgzv/global_covid_cases_for_01feb22/ | 13:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: COVID-19 Vaccination During Pregnancy is Safe and Protective: Backed by solid data, clinicians can work to overcome vaccine hesitancy due to fears about negative pregnancy outcomes. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/covid-19-vaccination-during-pregnancy-is-safe-and-protective | 14:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Denmark becomes first EU country to lift Covid restrictions despite BA.2 variant | 01FEB22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/shukyx/denmark_becomes_first_eu_country_to_lift_covid/ | 14:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): Positiviteitsratios dalen weer in alle provincies: we zijn de (BA.1) omikronpiek voorbij... twitter.com/Tommy_Thijs/st… pic.twitter.com/J7Hew8NuLT → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1488501985909354497 | 14:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from NIH Director's blog: ‘Decoy’ Protein Works Against Multiple Coronavirus Variants in Early Study: The NIH continues to support the development of some very innovative therapies to control SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. One [... want %more?] → https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2022/02/01/decoy-protein-works-against-multiple-coronavirus-variants-in-early-study/ | 15:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: ‘I was born free, I’ll die free’: Man turns down vaccine at expense of a lifesaving transplant | 01FEB22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/shvpw8/i_was_born_free_ill_die_free_man_turns_down/ | 15:11 |
| Dredd | Well that there is a Darwin award ^ | 15:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: COVID-19 tracker: Tokyo's hospital bed occupancy rate tops 50% | 01FEB22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/shw1yu/covid19_tracker_tokyos_hospital_bed_occupancy/ | 15:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Our covid timesby @MatttDavies pic.twitter.com/40JWVCYiFb → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488519173969903616 | 15:31 |
| peetaur | Dredd: https://youtu.be/gr_OpFxCx-A?t=116 | 15:46 |
| xx | Dredd: they possibly already reproduced, so they wouldn't get the darwin award | 16:00 |
| xx | but in any case, they are exercising their freedom to choose to not go through something, even if it kills them | 16:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: As Israel learns to live with COVID, hospitals struggle to cope | 01FEB22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/shwxhp/as_israel_learns_to_live_with_covid_hospitals/ | 16:00 |
| xx | ^ I don't understand this world. On the one hand, countries are declaring covid over, opening up and removing all restrictions, and on the other hand hospitals are saying they are full. | 16:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: People with Prior SARS-CoV-1 Infection May Have Stronger Response to COVID-19 Vaccines: Health care workers in Taiwan who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-1 showed a more robust antibody response to the AstraZeneca [... want %more?] → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/people-with-prior-sars-cov-1-infection-may-have-stronger-response-to-covid-19-vaccines | 16:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Baric Laboratory (@Baric_Lab): Our preprint with the @lab_haynes and @Dapeng_LI is out. @David_RMartinez and @aschaefe29 led this from our group and tested the breadth of a #universal #SARSCoV2 vaccine that protected macaques and mice against all tested variants and SARS-like viruses. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Baric_Lab/status/1488529718039269393 | 16:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Moderna wins full approval for its Covid-19 vaccine, as Novavax seeks authorization for its version | 31JAN22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/shxgtf/moderna_wins_full_approval_for_its_covid19/ | 16:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Protection prediction from infection, vaccination and their combination via neutralizing antibody levels induced vs Delta and Omicronpapers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… pic.twitter.com/vVGIccW1Fs → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488536427717664775 | 16:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Coronavirus: Portuguese PM António Costa tests positive for COVID-19 → https://www.politico.eu/article/portuguese-prime-minister-antonio-costa-tests-positive-for-covid19-coronavirus/ | 16:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The Omicron wave begins a global descent after >90 million confirmed cases in 10 weeks, more than all of 2020, as reported by @DrTedros @OurWorldInData pic.twitter.com/G7b5EqSG3G → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488545360100282370 | 17:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from LitCovid: (news): Symptomatic COVID-19 Reinfection with Pericardial and Pleural Involvement. → https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/publication/35099462 | 17:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): 3 new @nature papers on Omicron's pathogenicity, mechanism of cell entry, and related properties nature.com/articles/s4158…nature.com/articles/s4158…nature.com/articles/s4158…@GuptaR_lab @SystemsVirology @HuiKenrie @hkumed pic.twitter.com/JGvV7sqaey → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488562436508512256 | 18:26 |
| Tuvix | xx: Once again, you come up with information that is untrue, this time easily proven: https://darwinawards.com/rules/rules.children.html | 18:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Updated table of the 8 lab and in vivo reports to define Omicron's properties, all remarkably consistent All this work done, much of it published in leading peer review journals, in less than 10 weeks since Omicron was first reported! pic.twitter.com/SOdY25lNLN → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488564922040537090 | 18:36 |
| xx | Tuvix: it's not like darwin awards are something set in stone | 18:40 |
| xx | I certainly wouldn't award anyone who has reproduced | 18:40 |
| xx | in my definition, anyone who removes the possibility of reproducing oneself before one has reproduced is eligible for an award. And in case they do so through some stupid action, then that award can be the darwin award. | 18:42 |
| Tuvix | And I'm pointing out that the rules specifically address this, and the 'Darwin Awards' are a very specific thing in this context. You pick the worst things to squabble over though, apparently just to do it. In short, you're a jerk with nothing better to do. | 18:42 |
| Tuvix | "So the rules do not disqualify nominees who have already reproduced." QED. | 18:42 |
| Tuvix | (Latin, for "it is proven.") It's proven, of course, because the rules for the very thing that was being cited say that this is permitted. You can do what you want, but you said, to quote, "so they wouldn't get the darwin award." You either didn't realize what this was and that it had a framework for rules, or somehow figured your will was more important than a commonly understood framework everyone else | 18:44 |
| Tuvix | talking about this topic has agreed on a completely different meaning for. | 18:44 |
| xx | well then call it the superdarwin award - when an individual removes themselves from the genepool before they reproduced | 18:44 |
| xx | or gold darwin award | 18:44 |
| Tuvix | You'd better go get on telling the world about your new creation then. Be sure to register a website and ensure it gets into the global vernacular. Good luck. | 18:45 |
| xx | I just did | 18:45 |
| xx | from now on, it's the gold darwin award for those who want to be very specific | 18:45 |
| xx | for the rest, just saying 'darwin award' remains enough | 18:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): New @CDCMMWR report for Omicron waveVaccination + booster: 96% reduced hospitalization Vaccination, w/o booster: 81% reduced hospitalization Compared with unvaccinated, 8 January 2022, @CountyofLA (largest US county) @lapublichealth cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7… [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488572867545546766 | 19:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): Breaking: Norway: 4 - four - days isolation for SARS-CoV-2 positive!! → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1488574715363045379 | 19:14 |
| Juerd | wtf | 19:21 |
| xx | 4 days? :D | 19:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): "Omicron spike inefficiently utilises the cellular protease TMPRSS2 that promotes cell entry via plasma membrane fusion; Omicron’s less efficient spike cleavage at S1/S2 is associated with shift in cellular tropism away from TMPRSS2 expressing [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1488576053153091587 | 19:24 |
| peetaur | 4 days sounds like "spread it but a bit less" | 19:24 |
| peetaur | also known as "Sweden was right, but let's only do that off the flu season" | 19:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Reduction of hospitalizations for vaccination and a booster vs unvaccinated, US data sources, vs Delta and OmicronAge 65+ 98%Age 50-64 97%All ages,18+ 96%cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7… pic.twitter.com/RSvyPNECjm → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488578932622254082 | 19:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): For 2-shots, no booster, the reduction of hospitalizations vs unvaccinated, substantial but less than with 3-shotsAge 65+ 89%Age 50-64 88%All ages,18+ 81%Age 65+ and 50-64 from COVID-NET, 250 hospitals, 14 states; Age 18+ from LA County → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488581919822336004 | 19:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): Wie met omikron-broertje besmet is, steekt gemiddeld nog meer anderen aan : BA.2, een subvariant van omikron, verspreidt zich nóg sneller dan omikron zelf. Vooral niet-gevaccineerden geven het virus nog vaker door, blijkt uit een Deense studie. standaard.be/cnt/dmf2022020… → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1488589712046673924 | 20:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Prior to Omicron's emergence reinfections were rare, <1%During the Omicron wave in the UK, they have gone up to 10-11% of cases, approximately a 16-fold risk compared with prior variants by @UKHSA, reflecting its immune evasion (and less protection afforded by [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488593248838840320 | 20:32 |
| de-facto | 4 days is insane, but yeah politicians are like that | 20:32 |
| de-facto | every compromise in favor of pathogen spread | 20:33 |
| de-facto | why dont base decisions on data and statistics instead of politicians "opinions"? | 20:35 |
| Tuvix | A curve graphic based on the UKHSA study showed the percentage of people contagious as a function of days after testing: https://imgur.com/4W0x7xA (station's source was I believe the charts in this source: https://ukhsalibrary.koha-ptfs.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/40/2022/01/20220110_Self-isolation_Scientific-Summary_Final-clean.pdf ) | 20:35 |
| de-facto | LOL barely HALF of people are still contagious after 4 days according to that | 20:37 |
| de-facto | wtf is wrong with those politicians | 20:37 |
| xx | more like wtf is wrong with those who elect them | 20:38 |
| de-facto | good source Tuvix thanks for linking | 20:39 |
| de-facto | problem may even be that people would HAVE to return to work, after completing mandatory quarantine? | 20:40 |
| de-facto | question: how many more cases result from that then if approx half of them are still contagious at a time they would have to return to work? | 20:41 |
| Tuvix | Ultimately that may depending on the use of secondary protection measures, like masks, airflow, etc. | 20:41 |
| de-facto | follow up question: would an employer end up with more or less employees in quarantine as a result from that then? | 20:42 |
| Tuvix | The CDC guidance for 5 day isolation + 5 days masking may help, but in reality the mask wearing is often lax, and it doesn't specify that it really needs to be an N95 mask fitted and worn at all times very well; a surgical mask, or an N95 style mask not worn well may not be doing much. | 20:42 |
| Tuvix | Well, yea, you hit on some good points too; if you're an employer who wants the fewest employees out sick, how do you follow the guidance? Do you even have time yourself, or the ability to delegate, such information gathering? | 20:43 |
| Tuvix | Or do you just go with whatever the bottom-line guidance is from a group like the CDC or the county suggestions? Are they even "necessary" since they are, at least here, still just "guidelines"? | 20:43 |
| de-facto | i mean i could understand to have a compromise on the edge of a normal distribution, but of FWHM? thats a bit crazy tbh | 20:45 |
| Tuvix | It's so odd on one hand to avoid rules to curb the spread while at the same time intentionally sending some categories of critical workers back to work knowing they're contagious (or at least you know some of them are) becuase you're so short-staffed. | 20:52 |
| Tuvix | It's both an implicit admission that the spread is so bad that you're willing to risk more spread in order to keep those positions filled, yet at the same time refusing to take more active measures to reduce the very problem that's causing it. | 20:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Yesterday @FT showed how US Covid hospitalizations would have been halved during Delta/Omicron if vaccination & boosters were as high as European peer countries.Today, the vaccine-outcome gap between Northern vs Southern Californialatimes.com/california/sto… by [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488599910584766465 | 20:53 |
| de-facto | From 100 carriers at day 0 there are N(t) = [100, 92, 75, 58, 43, 31, 22, 16, 11, 6, 5] carriers contagious at day t | 20:57 |
| de-facto | according to Tuvix bargraph | 20:57 |
| de-facto | after testing positive | 20:58 |
| xx | well, that assumes there are only those 100 people, and they have no contact with anyone outside that group nor with others inside that group | 20:59 |
| xx | you'd need to include some R numbers and population sizes in it | 20:59 |
| de-facto | out of the group of those 100 carriers of course, no secondary infections | 21:00 |
| Tuvix | It was given that you're starting with a group of 100; the question isn't how many they'll spread it too, but how many of that population are still contagious. | 21:00 |
| Tuvix | Had you put them all in full-body isolation suits, it wouldn't matter how many are contagious. | 21:00 |
| Tuvix | (as an example) | 21:00 |
| Tuvix | Yet the study data that graph is basd on is considering how many from a population give an initial positive test at Time=0 remain contagious at Time = <n> days | 21:01 |
| de-facto | example: if 100 employees test positive at day 0 (100 would be contagious) after 4 days it would "only" be 43 of them still being able to infect other susceptible if returning to work at that day | 21:03 |
| de-facto | btw not sure of that data is about Omicron | 21:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: FDA Grants Fast Track Designation to Sabizabulin for COVID-19 Treatment: Veru inc. received FDA Fast Track designation for the phase 3 trial oral sabizabulin, a treatment for hospitalized COVID-19 patients at high risk of acute respiratory [... want %more?] → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/fda-grants-fast-track-designation-to-sabizabulin-for-covid-19-treatment | 21:04 |
| de-facto | how many of those 43/100 do actually infect others depends of course on local containment measures, hence Rt (at working place) | 21:05 |
| de-facto | if each of them would infect Rt = 2,3 (~1/0,43) others (on average) the next generation of carriers would also be 100 infectious again :P | 21:07 |
| de-facto | meaning if containment conditions at working place would allow Rt~2,3 (one generation) that would be reduced to Rt ~ 1 (averaged over long time) by isolating them for 4 days (assuming 100% of them can be found and isolated in time) | 21:12 |
| de-facto | depending on group size Rt ~ 2-3 may be way too low (for one generation) though | 21:13 |
| Arsanerit | Are Danish reductions of restrictions reasonable? | 21:14 |
| de-facto | look at their incidence | 21:15 |
| de-facto | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ | 21:15 |
| Arsanerit | Their incidence is high. That does not answer my question. | 21:15 |
| de-facto | their reduced restrictions directly result in a gigantic increase of daily new infections, e.g. Rt > 1 | 21:16 |
| de-facto | so if that is what they intend to do, then it works | 21:17 |
| Arsanerit | Does the impact of a high incidence omicron on a largely vaccinated population justify restrictions that were put in place to avoid overloading ICUs? | 21:17 |
| de-facto | so the answer of "reasonable" depends on the goal, is it to infect everyone or is it to prevent infections? | 21:17 |
| Arsanerit | Neither. | 21:17 |
| de-facto | the rate of deaths also is rising, as are infections | 21:18 |
| Tuvix | I mean, the goal is aruably a political one. For instance, before the UK's guidance change, the discussion went something like this according to one report: | 21:18 |
| Tuvix | "The UK government has previously denied it was looking at such an approach – but the number of staff now self-isolating with Covid is putting significant pressure on services and appears to have forced a change in tone among ministers." - https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/covid-twice-as-many-people-infectious-on-day-five-of-self-isolation-compared-to-day-seven-analysis-shows/ar-AASFLv6 | 21:18 |
| de-facto | already at 2/3 of their biggest peak in winter 2021 (with Alpha i assume), and still rising (as their infections do rise) | 21:19 |
| de-facto | so if its reasonable to allow that (increase of deaths, probably beyond any level seen before) its reasonable to allow their case (the infections, by taking back restrictions) | 21:20 |
| Arsanerit | Has any country seen death rates with omicron that approach or exceed death rates in previous waves? | 21:20 |
| Arsanerit | Or ICU overloading? | 21:20 |
| Tuvix | Arsanerit: US has already out-paced the daily death rate for Omicron about a week or so back, and appears on-target to exceed death totals during the "surge" (initial rise and whatever the initial dropoff in death rate ends up) | 21:21 |
| de-facto | many countries see rising numbers of deaths per day on a level comparable to their previous waves | 21:21 |
| de-facto | so if that continues like that (that would be realistic as its the delayed reaction to tolerating such a gigantic increase in infections) it will continue to rise | 21:22 |
| de-facto | also more infections will diffuse into the older and more vulnerable age groups | 21:22 |
| Arsanerit | Death rates in Germany and Netherlands seem to be dropping. | 21:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Here's the @FT analysis of US vs Europe, one of the most insightful ones in the post-vaccination phase twitter.com/EricTopol/stat… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488607855997440001 | 21:23 |
| de-facto | well at least in Germany deaths still resulted from previous Delta wave, so it takes some time until Omicron arrives in the older age groups and them to die in hospital | 21:23 |
| Tuvix | Well, that as the curious thing in the US; older age-groups saw less death and the youngest ones saw more in Delta (as compared to winter 2020-21, ie: Alpha) despite having only ~44% of the death totals during Delta (ballpark estimate based on the worst of the surge curves) | 21:23 |
| Arsanerit | But Omicron seems to be less deadly. | 21:24 |
| Tuvix | The death plots by age group during the period of Alpha through Delta were rather interesting: https://imgur.com/a/5KLFM3I . Note that in the US where that source is limited to, the US had basically given up all country and state-wide restrictions by Delta, including very vew places masks and/or vaccinations were required. | 21:25 |
| Arsanerit | At what point are the cost of the restrictions no longer in proportion to their aims? | 21:25 |
| Tuvix | Well, less deadly as expressed in a case incidence perhaps. It's appearing, at least where there remain large pockets of unvaccinated, to be *more* deadly if your metric is lives lost. | 21:25 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/n5i4Igo https://i.imgur.com/UDdjhGL.png src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2022-01-27.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 21:26 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Incidence per age group - Album on Imgur | 21:26 |
| de-facto | so it seems Omicron is in the young and middle age groups still, but also about to increase in the old and vulnerable (as direct result from increase in the young) | 21:27 |
| de-facto | so yeah deaths will rise again soon | 21:27 |
| Tuvix | It's just sad to see because had we tied restrictions to a factor of hospital pressure, we could have ramped them up or down accordingly. pre-Delta summer 2021 was a decent period for much of the Global West, but meaningful restructions or programs to more strongly persuade the yet-unvaccinated ranged from unpopular to unviable in practical terms. | 21:29 |
| de-facto | we have over 3M citizens over 60 year old that are NOT vaccinated and most likely immuno-naive, so a fraction of them will not survive infection | 21:30 |
| de-facto | in Germany | 21:30 |
| Arsanerit | I thought the point of the restrictions was to prevent overloading ICUs, which would lead to a lot of secondary preventable deaths due to regular emergency care being inaccessible. | 21:30 |
| de-facto | there never have been tolerated such crazy high incidences, so they most likely will not be able to isolate from Omicron | 21:30 |
| Arsanerit | If it's about saving lives, then in theory one could also apply restrictions in a flu wave or any other non-pandemical wave of infections. | 21:32 |
| de-facto | young vaccinated Omicron infected most likely will not put load on ICUs, but old unvaccinated immuno naive may end there | 21:32 |
| Arsanerit | What is the defining criterion to set those apart? | 21:32 |
| Arsanerit | Or are we still at risk of overloading ICUs with omicron? | 21:32 |
| Dredd | Oh dear, my brother has got covid | 21:33 |
| Tuvix | Well, at least in the US, this is nowhere near the flu. The flu over an average of the last decade takes 36.9k lives annually, almost all of that around the winter season. Over the entier pandemic, COVID-19 has taken a current annual average of 460.7k lives, and at multiple peaks throughout the year. | 21:34 |
| Arsanerit | Why does https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom;Netherlands;Belgium;Denmark&byPopulation=yes&logScale=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&leftTrim=700&legacy=no not show data after 12 January? | 21:34 |
| Arsanerit | Tuvix: COVID, yes. But Omicron? | 21:34 |
| Tuvix | Omicron is looking worse than Delta, in the US anyway. | 21:34 |
| Tuvix | Again, in total killed. | 21:34 |
| Arsanerit | I see. | 21:34 |
| Tuvix | Yes, yes, per-case it's "less deadly" but only becuase there's so much infection. It's spreading very well becuase 1) Omicron spreads very well, and 2) humans, especially those in the US, also spread it very well with social norms in place. | 21:35 |
| Tuvix | Delta's worst peak was 4.06 deaths per 100k population each week. Yesterday, that figure was 4.82 deaths per 100k pop. per week. | 21:36 |
| Arsanerit | Right. We've been told many times that we'll all get it anyway, because getting R<1 is not feasible with omicron. So the restrictions just spread the same number of infections over a longer time — which seems a reasonable goal to avoid overloading ICU, but otherwise won't save any lives? | 21:36 |
| Tuvix | Plus we "started" Omicron from a still-pretty-bad ~2.25/100k/wk deaths, as compared to 0.45/100k/2k pre-Omicron, back in early July. | 21:36 |
| Tuvix | Masking and similar will help protected the immunocompromised and the unvaccianted (some of whom are children too young to get vaccinated remember.) So there's value in that, even if you ignore those who continue to refuse vaccines. | 21:37 |
| Tuvix | And of the "anti-vaxers" many of them would get vaccianted if required, but, at least here in the US, such requirements are unpopular enough with a vocal minority, despite some polling that suggests the majority would actually approve of some measures. | 21:38 |
| Arsanerit | There can't be many children left who haven't had the virus yet? | 21:38 |
| Arsanerit | At least anecdotally in my environment, almost all children have had it or currently have it. | 21:39 |
| Tuvix | Estimates were a bit more than half in the Fall of 2021, although I don't have a source handy for that (a doc gave that estimate on a program in my feed and I didn't think to follow up at the time with any references) | 21:39 |
| Tuvix | Keep in mind reinfection is a real factor too, especially between varients. | 21:39 |
| Arsanerit | sure | 21:39 |
| Tuvix | A combination of new varients and waning immunity are factors, and it appears antibody responses from infection wane as well, and may be less effective between varients as compared to vaccination, though presumably still helps to a point. | 21:40 |
| Arsanerit | At what point, based on what criteria, are the restrictions (ban on public gatherings, prohibition on clubs, etc.) no longer justified? | 21:42 |
| Dredd | When they no longer help for any useful definition of help | 21:43 |
| Arsanerit | Well, they're not bringing R<1. | 21:43 |
| Arsanerit | Nor does the ban on unvaccinated people in "non-essential" shops or indoor sports bring R<1. | 21:44 |
| Dredd | ATM, despite possibly the fastest and most aggressive vaccine response to Omicron with boosters, UK is still very stretched even now | 21:44 |
| Dredd | My dad has recently suffered negligent emergency care here due to it | 21:45 |
| Arsanerit | In previous waves, the restrictions did bring R<1; they had a aim, and that effect could clearly be measured. | 21:45 |
| Arsanerit | But if the restrictions cannot bring R<1, then by what criterion do we measure if they help? Without bringing R<1, it'll just delay the time until "everyone has had it". | 21:46 |
| Dredd | Thankfully when he had a heart attack it was during a quiet period and he got picked up fast (third time to hospital, second ambulance, in two weeks) because they kept discharging him too soon to get him out of there | 21:46 |
| Dredd | Whilst he was there be overheard the staff panicking that there was a growing 11 ambulance queue at the ER | 21:47 |
| Dredd | And the UK has basically got rid of all it's restrictions again | 21:47 |
| Dredd | Too soon imo | 21:48 |
| Dredd | There's still a real cost to this | 21:48 |
| Arsanerit | The situation in UK healthcare is dreadful. It was dreadful before the pandemic even started and I can't even imagine how terrible it must be with the pandemic. | 21:48 |
| Dredd | Even indirectly | 21:48 |
| Arsanerit | The NHS couldn't even cope with a regular flu wave, much less with covid-19. | 21:48 |
| Dredd | It wasn't this bad | 21:49 |
| Dredd | Emergency care was generally excellent | 21:49 |
| Dredd | The NHS optimises for patient outcomes, patient experience is secondary | 21:49 |
| Arsanerit | I fully believe that it wasn't this bad. | 21:50 |
| Dredd | This leads to people moaning a lot | 21:50 |
| Arsanerit | I remember seeing news reports from hospital during the regular winter flu wave when I lived in the UK, and it looked pretty bad. | 21:50 |
| Dredd | But if you understand the risk management flow chart they're following it usually makes sense | 21:50 |
| Dredd | All crummy experience though | 21:50 |
| Arsanerit | covidly.com data also stop at 12 January… just like offloop… why is that? | 21:51 |
| Dredd | And there are also some areas that are just plain bad | 21:51 |
| Tuvix | As to restrictions or requirements, if it gets more people vaccinated (eg: like some localities in Canada have done on liquor and cannabis sales,) this could have a very real impact in that region on the number killed as a result of future infections given the protection vaccines provide against death vs. the unvaccinated. | 21:51 |
| Dredd | And it can vary by region | 21:52 |
| Tuvix | Sometimes the requirements are a way to balance public health. This has long been done many places, such as requiring vacines for schoolchildren or to travel to a particular country. | 21:52 |
| Dredd | Anyway my dad are has two of his coronary arteries stented | 21:52 |
| Dredd | *now | 21:52 |
| Arsanerit | Tuvix: So restrictions that reduce R without bringing R<1 are just to buy time to get more vaccinations? | 21:52 |
| Arsanerit | The other aim I can see is to avoid ICU overloading, but at least in Germany it seems that ICU overloading is not expected. | 21:53 |
| Tuvix | It's not "just" buying time; if the goal is, in part, to raise vacciation rates, we know that some of the "vaccine-resistant" (or whatever term you prefer here) are willing to get it when something they want to do requires it. The US went through a period of similar pressure to mandate seatbelts in automobiles years back. | 21:54 |
| Tuvix | Some states didn't want to have a seatbelt requirement, and fought against it on the grounds of "freedom." Eventually the federal governemnt begain witholding funds for road repair for states continuing to take that position, and eventually the states relented and agreed to implement the laws, which were designed to prevent loss of life. | 21:54 |
| Arsanerit | Do we know that? How many are "some"? Anecdotally, the vaccine-resistant I know have given up on participating in those requirements they are now no longer allowed to participate in. | 21:55 |
| Tuvix | Yes, this does indeed mean that the personal freedom to choose is taken away, at least insofar as it's illegal and you can be fined for doing it. | 21:55 |
| Tuvix | We know that because places like Canada which implemented such rules saw a spike in vaccinations ;) | 21:55 |
| Tuvix | Also also polling and similar measures. Also companies that have done this, for instance, American Airlines (I believe it was them) required their staff to be vaccinated to continue working thre, and most of them did comply. | 21:56 |
| Tuvix | Erm, Also public* polling | 21:56 |
| Arsanerit | Germany bans unvaccinated people from sports and many shops. This ban has been in place for a while now. Is there still a significant number of new first doses to vaccine-resistent people which are motivated people people want to be allowed to go swimming again? | 21:57 |
| Tuvix | Only a subset of those refusing vaccination are "really" doing so on deeply heald believes; the rest are just using it as a convenient excuse, and they're actually quite hard to convince to do it on scientific grounds as a result. They'll just find a new excuse if you somehow manage to explain why their excuse of the day/week/month/year isn't valid. | 21:57 |
| Tuvix | beliefs* | 21:57 |
| Arsanerit | From an epidemiological point of view, it seems questionable whether banning unvaccinated people from a furniture store completely (including with negative test) does much to reduce the spread. Is the aim of such restrictions to reduce the spread or to pressure people into getting the vaccine? Is either aim being achieved? | 21:58 |
| Tuvix | Reducing spread is really only secondary when you have vaccination requirements; reducing the cost of life and (during periods of severe outcomes) hospital stress. | 21:58 |
| Tuvix | It's really "too late" to vaccinate your way out of a stress healthcare system. Vaccination is preventative and reduces the odds of bad outcomes in the future, so you have to plan ahead for that. | 21:59 |
| Arsanerit | Yes, vaccinations certainly save lives and reduce hospital stress. | 21:59 |
| Tuvix | Either by increasing capacity at healthcare systems to deal with it, or by reducing the load. The 3rd option is even worse, which is overload the system and then everyone suffers, even non-COVID patients. The US is going through that for Omicron, just like the system did last winter. | 22:00 |
| Arsanerit | What I don't know if whether banning unvaccinated people from shops and restaurants, including outdoors, is effective at either reducing the spread or increasing vaccinations. | 22:00 |
| Dredd | Also slowing the infections down will distribute the stress over a longer period which is also easier to manage for healthcare | 22:00 |
| Arsanerit | Dredd: Yes, that sounds reasonable. | 22:01 |
| Arsanerit | By the same reasoning, fireworks was banned last new years eve. | 22:01 |
| Dredd | I suspect it helps a bit but probably not as much as requiring them for a job or whatever | 22:01 |
| Arsanerit | In several German states, courts have lifted that particular ban because the restriction in freedom is large and the impact is small. They argue a large restriction of freedom can only be justified if the protection impact it has is large, which is a reasoning I can understand. | 22:02 |
| Arsanerit | I am not sure if the remaining unvaccinated people in Germany would get vaccinated even if it became mandatory like in Austria. | 22:03 |
| Dredd | The trains in the UK now say "please wear a face covering or mask if you can for the courtesy of others" but almost no one does now | 22:03 |
| Arsanerit | I saw no unmasked people on the train today, nor anyone wearing it under the nose, except one person alone in a compartment. | 22:04 |
| Dredd | People only did it again to avoid Christmas getting cancelled | 22:04 |
| Arsanerit | Certainly, mask mandates are a minor measure with a large impact, so clearly justified. | 22:04 |
| Dredd | Or that's a theory at least | 22:05 |
| Dredd | They still stop people sitting next to them though | 22:05 |
| Arsanerit | I disagree with my unvaccinated friend, but it does seem excessive that he cannot sit alone outside on a terrace ordering a coffee. | 22:05 |
| Dredd | And avoid the Isle seat | 22:05 |
| Dredd | So seems to me they don't care about others, only themselves | 22:05 |
| Arsanerit | If there are some rules that are not reasonable, people may be less likely to respect those rules that /are/ reasonable? | 22:06 |
| Dredd | Arsanerit: I agree tie friend should be able to do that, preferably he should be taking reasonable care with testing | 22:08 |
| Arsanerit | Dredd: Yes, he tests whenever he leaves the home. | 22:08 |
| Arsanerit | which is mandatory to enter public transport or the workplace anyway | 22:08 |
| Arsanerit | And it was already mandatory in bars and restaurants for unvaccinated people | 22:09 |
| Dredd | None of those rules would work in the UK I think | 22:09 |
| LjL-Matrix | Arsanerit: I test whenever I join the room | 22:09 |
| Dredd | We are too belligerent and selfish | 22:09 |
| LjL-Matrix | (sorry, this was a test) | 22:09 |
| Dredd | All we care about is if our pm ate cake in lock down | 22:09 |
| LjL-Matrix | s/a/some/, s/test/testing/ | 22:09 |
| Dredd | 😛 | 22:09 |
| Arsanerit | The rule was "recovered, vaccinated or tested", then the rule became "recovered or vaccinated only", no longer allowing people to get an entry by testing. Tests have false negative, but vaccines have breakthroughs, so I've found this particular change questionable all along. | 22:10 |
| `St0ner | good news, my (likely omicron) cough has mostly subsided. that took about 3 weeks | 22:10 |
| Arsanerit | The rationale then can either be that unvaccinated people are more likely to overload hospitals and thereby indirectly being a threat to others, or ...? | 22:11 |
| Arsanerit | Who is more likely to spread the virus; someone who is vaccinated but not tested, or someone who is negatively tested but not vaccinated? | 22:11 |
| `St0ner | fitbit says my heartrate bpm is back to normal | 22:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Endemicity Is Meaningless: Endemicity says nothing about the total number of infected people in a population at a given time. It says nothing about how bad those infections might get—how much death or disability [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/si5pwa/endemicity_is_meaningless_endemicity_says_nothing/ | 22:12 |
| Arsanerit | Here there are 11 ways to meet the so-called "2g+" criteria that apply in restaurants now. It's extremely complicated. | 22:12 |
| Arsanerit | https://www.hessen.de/sites/hessen.hessen.de/files/2022-01/2g-plusregeln_2101_v5.pdf Is Germany world champion complicated rules? | 22:15 |
| genera | only hesse! | 22:16 |
| Arsanerit | Yes, other states have other rules. They will be similar, but probably not identical. Although the definition of 2g+ might be identical? | 22:16 |
| genera | (but yeah u saw that posted | 22:17 |
| Dredd | <`St0ner> "good news, my (likely omicron..." <- Congrats 👍 | 22:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from BioNTech: Pfizer and BioNTech Initiate Rolling Submission for Emergency Use Authorization of Their COVID-19 Vaccine in Children 6 Months Through 4 Years of Age Following Request from U.S. FDA: With pediatric COVID-19 cases surpassing 10 [... want %more?] → https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-and-biontech-initiate-rolling-submission-emergency-use | 22:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Advisory Committee Meeting to Discuss Request for Authorization of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for Children 6 Months Through 4 Years of Age → http://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-request-authorization-pfizer | 22:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Via @viral_checkCOVID-19. O QUE É A “SUPER IMUNIDADE”?viralcheck.sapo.pt/artigos/covid-… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1488633714229882884 | 23:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Fast-Spreading Omicron Variant Less Likely to Stop Reinfection: The protection from a natural infection was about one-third that obtained through a booster shot, the study found. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/si77lz/fastspreading_omicron_variant_less_likely_to_stop/ | 23:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Not a very encouraging title or report:"#SARSCoV2 invades cognitive centers of the brain and induces Alzheimer's-like neuropathology"biorxiv.org/content/10.110…(based on 5 cases; whether and how often the virus directly infects neurons is a controversy) [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1488637332689342468 | 23:23 |
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