libera/##covid-19/ Saturday, 2022-02-05

BrainstormUpdates for India: +128152 cases, +1056 deaths since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +69174 cases, +13 deaths since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +84490 cases since 21 hours ago00:09
BrainstormNew from The Lancet (Online): [Articles] Risk of infection, hospitalisation, and death up to 9 months after a second dose of COVID-19 vaccine: a retrospective, total population cohort study in Sweden: We found progressively waning vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection of any [... want %more?] → https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00089-7/fulltext00:38
BrainstormUpdates for Palau: +237 cases since a day ago — Kiribati: +124 cases since a day ago00:59
TimvdeIntresting article that an omicron-specific booster may not be better than yet another shot of the original vaccine. Anyone with any insights about that? How could more shots of the original vaccine help with a broader protection against variants?01:06
TimvdeInteresting*01:06
lastshellWhat is comming in the next  3 to 12 months Tuvix ?01:57
BrainstormUpdates for France: +241060 cases since 16 hours ago02:02
* LjL fetches Tuvix his crystal ball02:13
LjLi like how watermelonsunris quibbled endlessly about their video but never actually made a summary of what the video said or even just what they thought for themselves.02:29
TuvixThe crystal ball never worked; I traded it in for one of the shakable 8-balls years ago ;)02:47
LjL%8ball what is coming in he next 3 to 12 months02:52
BrainstormLjL, Without a doubt02:52
LjL"what" is coming without a doubt02:52
xxwhat02:52
xx^ came early02:52
LjLthat what can't hold it for long02:53
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +9 deaths since 12 hours ago03:04
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): On the same day we surpassed 900,000 American cumulative confirmed Covid deaths, yet another near 4,000 lost lives. This is horrifying, getting so little attention relative to the mostly unnecessary, seemingly boundless toll of deaths pic.twitter.com/mgAsSCPcwf → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/148978811050637721903:40
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Jonathan Reiner (@JReinerMD): The US passed 900,000 COVID deaths today. That’s more people  than the total population of St Louis, Pittsburgh, and Orlando - COMBINED. The last 300,000 deaths have occurred since vaccines were available to everyone. Nearly all of these deaths were [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/JReinerMD/status/148979492247976755504:56
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +82470 cases since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +199 cases, +5 deaths since 11 hours ago05:09
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +28382 cases, +42 deaths since 23 hours ago — India: +127952 cases since 22 hours ago05:59
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Consistently wearing high-quality masks offers strong protection, a study in California suggests. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/skwzuf/consistently_wearing_highquality_masks_offers/06:21
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +214386 cases since 23 hours ago — Atacama, Chile: +933 cases since 23 hours ago — Queensland, Australia: +8429 cases, +21 deaths since 23 hours ago07:02
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: Compound in the herb rosemary may be useful against COVID-19 and other inflammatory diseases. Carnosic acid, a compound found in the herb rosemary, can block SARS-CoV-2 infection and reduce inflammation.The compound appears to have previously been [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/skzaa2/compound_in_the_herb_rosemary_may_be_useful/07:46
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): Triste momento de novo - Brasil volta a registrar mais de 1.000 mortes por Covid após mais de 5 meses → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/148986255692781159008:34
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 05, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/sl1px3/daily_discussion_thread_february_05_2022/09:02
BrainstormUpdates for Solomon Is.: +433 cases, +4 deaths since a day ago09:07
pwr22https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-6025808810:08
pwr22This seems like good news10:08
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Latest topics: nCoV-2019 Genomic Epidemiology: The dissemination of the Omicron variant in the highly seroprevalent Amazonas state, Brazil, is associated with a rapid [... want %more?] → https://virological.org/t/the-dissemination-of-the-omicron-variant-in-the-highly-seroprevalent-amazonas-state-brazil-is-associated-with-a-rapid-upsurge-of-sars-cov-2-cases/78511:16
BrainstormUpdates for Kiribati: +350 cases since 11 hours ago12:02
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +421 cases, +2 deaths since 17 hours ago13:04
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: 3 COVID-19 Exposures Provide Immunity Against Omicron: Triple COVID-19 vaccination or infection-plus-vaccination hybrid immunity induces high-quality antibodies, capable of neutralizing even the Omicron variant. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/3-covid-19-exposures-provide-immunity-against-omicron13:10
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: The Remarkable Evolutionary Plasticity of Coronaviruses by Mutation and Recombination: Insights for the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Future Evolutionary Paths of SARS-CoV-2 → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sl6grk/the_remarkable_evolutionary_plasticity_of/14:46
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 862: COVID-19 clinical update #100 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #100, Daniel Griffin, from Accra, Ghana, reviews the challenges in evaluating Omicron severity, over 800 deaths in children, Pfizer vaccine EUA application for under 5 year olds, false positives from soft drinks, [... want %more?] → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-862/14:56
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +212022 cases since 22 hours ago15:09
BrainstormNew from Retraction Watch: Weekend reads: ‘Death threats, ghost researchers and sock puppets’; high levels of duplication in Russian science; DNA barcoding fraud?: Would you consider a donation to [... want %more?] → https://retractionwatch.com/2022/02/05/weekend-reads-death-threats-ghost-researchers-and-sock-puppets-high-levels-of-duplication-in-russian-science-dna-barcoding-fraud/15:53
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +12869 cases, +153 deaths since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +531 cases since 21 hours ago17:01
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Still pleasantly surprised to see reported England cases falling *despite* the addition of reinfections.Today - 57,377  (including reinfections)Last Saturday - 69,137 (excluding them)Around 10% of cases each day are reinfections.Link: [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/148999554965066138617:18
BrainstormNew from LitCovid: (news): The Puzzles of Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia and COVID-19: Absolute Knowns and Relative Unknowns. → https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/publication/3512003917:38
de-facto.title https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60258088 <-- indeed that may be good news if they manage to 1) do good quality control while scaling 2) gain and maintain the trust by transparency17:48
Brainstormde-facto: From www.bbc.co.uk: Covid: South Africa makes its own version of Moderna vaccine - BBC News17:48
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +40321 cases, +15 deaths since 23 hours ago18:04
Alex1138[m]<de-facto> ".title https://www.bbc.co.uk/..." <- It’s good news that they were transparent with omicron in the first place18:27
Alex1138[m]Bodes well18:27
de-factoyes SA got very good virologists18:30
ArsaneritAnd labs.18:30
de-facto.title https://twitter.com/Tuliodna18:32
Brainstormde-facto: From twitter.com: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna) | 42l - nitter18:32
de-facto.title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04460-318:33
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nature.com: T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike cross-recognize Omicron | Nature18:33
de-facto" We assessed the ability of T cells to react with Omicron spike in participants who were vaccinated with Ad26.CoV2.S, BNT162b2, or unvaccinated convalescent COVID-19 patients (n=70). We found that 70-80% of the CD4+ and CD8+ T cell response to spike was maintained across study groups. Moreover, the magnitude of Omicron cross-reactive T cells was similar to Beta and Delta variants, despite Omicron harboring considerably more mutations."18:34
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Article from the Office of the Inspector General, “Fraud Alert: Covid-19 Scams”. → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/slc87h/article_from_the_office_of_the_inspector_general/18:36
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +216 deaths since 23 hours ago19:06
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Reinfections for people with Prior Covid were rare until Omicron: UK data assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… pic.twitter.com/IPOGG1i3sL → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149002882404984012819:33
de-factohttps://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1052357/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w5.pdf19:52
de-facto.title19:52
Brainstormde-facto: From assets.publishing.service.gov.uk: Weekly Flu and COVID-19 Report_w5 (UKHSA)19:52
de-factopage 1919:52
de-facto"Figure 13 (a): The weekly rate of possible COVID-19 reinfections with cumulation of first infections becoming eligible for reinfection and weekly total of first infection* (England only to week 3 2022, provisional early dataΔ)"19:52
LjLi remember reading something meaningful about BA.2 being much more immune evasive than BA.2 but i don't remember where i read it19:53
LjLde-facto, "Weekly national Influenza and COVID-19 surveillance report" ← have they decided to merge the reports (similar to what the US is steering towards) or has there always been a dual report?19:55
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Abraar Karan (@AbraarKaran): This is an important piece. It’s thoughtful & nuanced. The end of the pandemic, whenever that may be, won’t be easy for public policy leaders.  nytimes.com/2022/02/04/opi… → https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/149003535690474291220:02
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +93192 cases, +375 deaths, +846480 tests (11.0% positive) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +60643 cases, +260 deaths since 23 hours ago — Canada: +12764 cases, +116 deaths since 23 hours ago20:09
Tuvix%cases denmark20:11
BrainstormTuvix: Denmark has had 2.0 million confirmed cases (34.4% of all people) and 3889 deaths (0.2% of cases; 1 in 1497 people) as of 3 hours ago. 121.2 million tests were done (1.7% positive). 4.8 million were vaccinated (82.6%). +10 deaths, +295797 tests since 22 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Denmark&legacy=no20:11
LjL%title https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7106e1.htm20:17
BrainstormLjL: From www.cdc.gov: Effectiveness of Face Mask or Respirator Use in Indoor Public Settings for Prevention of SARS-CoV-2 Infection — California, February–December 2021 | MMWR20:17
LjLhard in this kind of study to untangle actual effectiveness from behavioral correlation methinks20:17
TuvixThat NYT article on "The end of the pandemic" is a really interesting read. It re-states the classic right/left political divide pretty well, pointing to reserach showing that conservative leaning folks often overrate the vaccine risks and liberal-leaners may overrate the disease risks. However, there are 2 complex points that author makes that I think hit the crux of the reason political measures to put20:20
Tuvixpressure on a population are so hard.20:20
TuvixFirst matches what I've been driving at for a couple of weeks now, which is that you can't realistically impose measures more than a population is willing to support; doing so just means more people don't follow them out of a lack of trust in the system to come up with what that group views as a reasonable balance.20:21
LjLmaybe my ban from worldnews will result in better-quality news on this channel20:22
TuvixSecond is that the measure of restrictions should be tied to opertional needs, and that article specifically talks about hospital capacity and operation as a key metric. Now, this is Denmark, and I'm putting that article's approach into the context of my own country where things are much different stateside.20:23
TuvixIn the US, restrictions are so political, and vaccine uptake so much notably lower, that it's both virtually impossible to apply new or resumed restrictions becuase much of the US, in a mix of both official and unofficial actions, has largely declared the pandemic 'over' sometime lst year.20:24
xxLjL: how is it that you keep finding yourself (shadow)banned from all over the place?20:26
xxyou're not a denier20:26
LjLxx, not very shadow this time. the second picture here https://imgur.com/a/yd6uEzu is ostensibly why.20:27
TuvixHe annoyed the wrong people who either misunderstood the point being made or didn't like being called out on poor moderation policy.20:27
LjLtbf you predicted it (or, predicted worse)20:27
BrainstormNew from ##covid-19 Zotero group: Effectiveness of Face Mask or Respirator Use in Indoor Public Settings for Prevention of SARS-CoV-2 Infection — California, February–December 2021: Type Journal Article Author Kristin L. Andrejko URL https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7106e1.htm Volume 71 Publication MMWR. [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/JFX5GAVN20:30
xxit's just weird. They let crazy stuff slide but valid criticism gets banned.20:31
TuvixNot really; the critique was largely on how the mods are doing their job, and on top of that on a somewhat unpopular viewpoint of defending what was frankly a very bad bit of linked information.20:31
LjLxx, if you recall i also posted it on r/censorship, although ironically, my post was removed (the mod pointed out the sub is about *government* censorship, and apparently i had overlooked that). my strong suspicion is that someone who read there ratted me out, even though i had used an np.reddit.com link as required20:32
TuvixIn theory the platform (that sub anyway, in this context) welcomed such contradictory material with an aim to discuss. But then opted not only to remove it from discussion, but pave over any light shed on that being done in apparent violation of their own policies.20:32
TuvixMichael Peterson (NYT above) writes, "… we need to make complex trade-offs between deaths, the economy, public well-being and constitutional rights. […] Within the set of legitimate strategies, the choice of strategy is often less important than whether or not people follow and support it."20:35
LjL%tr <fi >en Parempi piru merrassa kuin kymmenen meressä.20:35
BrainstormLjL, Finnish to English: Better damn in the ocean than ten in the ocean. (MyMemory, Google)20:36
LjLthat doesn't make a lot of sense but i guess that's Google+Finnish for you ;(20:36
TuvixI really fear that the "set of legitimate strategies", which Peterson implies are in large part driven by what the public is willing to accept, are now effectively nothing in a place like the US.20:36
TuvixWe have high death rates that really became worse than any of our close-competition for outcomes (UK, Italy, France) and now almsot no remaining tools to change it.20:37
LjLaka "the ones nearly a bad as us but not quite" :P20:38
TuvixWell, almost anywhere besides Russia in the reasonable well-off countries (excluding areas with excess poverty, war, etc) and the US are doing notably better.20:39
LjLSpain?20:39
TuvixI should see if I can use some photo-editing to highlight the US trajectery from the full set of 20 JHU mini-graphs that show death-rates.20:39
TuvixAh, yea, Spain too, but they're no longer on the top-10 "large" death-rate chart JHU has, so I didn't include them in my comment above.20:40
TuvixSpain had a really bad entry into 2021 with a very high death rate (pre-vaccines) but largely got it under control as 2021 progressed.20:40
TuvixThe US by comparison (link to follow) got things somewhat under control as vaccines rolled out up to the first half of 2021, then things fell completely apart when Delta hit: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases20:41
LjLi find Sweden interesting20:42
TuvixSpain/Italy/UK (and many other places) got things under control: better vaccines, better political messaging, better public complinace with rules, better oversight of the rules themselves, even if not all the public agreed with them.20:42
Tuvix(better vaccine uptake, not "better vaccines", poor choice of words on my part)20:42
LjLSweden could be used to support the theory that lack of lockdowns didn't change things much, since despite their (lack of) policy, they have a lower death rate than Italy etc20:42
LjL%cases Sweden20:42
BrainstormLjL: Sweden has had 2.3 million confirmed cases (22.1% of all people) and 16180 deaths (0.7% of cases; 1 in 639 people) as of a day ago. 17.1 million tests were done (13.4% positive). 7.8 million were vaccinated (75.1%). +28129 cases, +43 deaths since 23 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden&legacy=no20:42
LjL%cases Italy20:42
BrainstormLjL: Italy has had 11.5 million confirmed cases (19.2% of all people) and 148542 deaths (1.3% of cases; 1 in 406 people) as of 33 minutes ago. 175.5 million tests were done (6.6% positive). 48.5 million were vaccinated (80.6%). +93192 cases, +375 deaths, +846480 tests since a day ago. See https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-dashboard or https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/20:42
LjLbut then, if you compare them to comparable neighbors, the picture changes completely20:42
LjL(neighbors that had lockdown policies)20:43
LjL%cases norway20:43
BrainstormLjL: Norway has had 870245 confirmed cases (16.2% of all people) and 1467 deaths (0.2% of cases; 1 in 3659 people) as of 18 hours ago. 7.8 million tests were done (11.1% positive). 4.3 million were vaccinated (79.8%). +20856 cases since 23 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Norway&legacy=no20:43
LjL1 in 639 and 1 in 3659 people are qualitatively different20:43
LjLso i don't know why Scandinavia in general seems to be less affected, but Sweden is only "about as bad as country that locked down" when compared to Italy etc, but not when compared to neighboring countries with similar climate, culture, population density, etc20:44
LjL(whatever the core reason is, which i don't know)20:44
TuvixYea, I wonder if decent vaccine uptake (today Sweden lags Italy, although not by as much as the US by contrast) combined with some social willingness to take reasonable personal measures played any role.20:44
LjLas countries*20:44
ArsaneritSweden does not have great vaccine uptake, in particular not with the booster.20:44
TuvixAs in, I wonder how much better Sweden could have done with some extra measures.20:45
LjLthe situation was kind of like this even before vaccines were widespread20:45
TuvixWell, "decent" is relative here, since my measuring stick is the US with almost 10% fewer fully-vaccinated by population20:45
LjLSweden did not lockdown much; Norway locked down a lot more; Sweden had mortality similar (but less) than Italy; Norway, much much lower20:45
TuvixSadly, I look at Sweden as decent, but of course you're right, compared to the rest of the nordic region and perhaps a third to half of the rest of Europe, they're not doing so well.20:46
LjLi could bring up Finland too. Denmark not so much, but Denmark is smaller, denser, more connected to the continent...20:46
Tuvix(vaccination wise.)20:46
LjLmy point is that were doing worse even before vaccinations.20:46
LjLthey*20:46
TuvixSweden vs. Norway, you mean? I recall seeing at least one TV report showcasing the controversial decision to stay open, but noticed a lot of outdoor dining (that's generally more common in Europe as compared to the US for example) and perhaps social understanding to take some reasonable percautions helped.20:48
TuvixEven without mandates, I believe Sweden effectively told people to try to reduce the spread and had some loose guidelines, but next to no real rules or enforcement.20:49
LjLSweden vs Norway mostly, but also vs Finland. I don't know if there were many widely-undertaken "voluntary" measures, but the fact is that even before vaccination was common, Sweden was doing much worse than Norway, despite doing somewhat better than Italy20:49
TuvixJust noticed Portugal on the global map too; just under 90% according to JHU!20:51
LjLTuvix, this is trimmed to before most people were double-jabbed: http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy;Sweden;Norway&byPopulation=yes&rightTrim=250&legacy=no20:51
LjLas usual there is a hint of Italy either testing less, or being worse at treating people (more deaths vs cases)20:52
LjLbut aside from that, Italy and Sweden are somewhat similar while Norway is just lots lower20:52
TuvixMore cases, less death, interesting.20:53
LjLTuvix, it's the same if you compare Italy to the UK, too20:53
LjLbut if you look at the amount of *tests* in the respective countries, it becomes clear why20:53
LjL%cases italy20:53
LjL%cases UK20:53
BrainstormLjL: Italy has had 11.5 million confirmed cases (19.2% of all people) and 148542 deaths (1.3% of cases; 1 in 406 people) as of 44 minutes ago. 175.5 million tests were done (6.6% positive). 48.5 million were vaccinated (80.6%). +93192 cases, +375 deaths, +846480 tests since a day ago. See https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-dashboard or https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/20:53
BrainstormLjL: United Kingdom has had 17.9 million confirmed cases (26.9% of all people) and 158781 deaths (0.9% of cases; 1 in 418 people) as of 44 minutes ago. 458.5 million tests were done (3.9% positive). 51.8 million were vaccinated (78.0%). +60643 cases, +260 deaths since 23 hours ago. See https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/20:53
LjLsimilar population, similar amount of deaths, but until recently, many more cases found in the UK (now we're sort of catching up... :\)20:54
LjLbut, 175 million tests vs 458 million!20:54
LjLi think we may be catching up more because the UK has been testing less lately than because Italy has been testing more ;( although since i didn't get Covidly data for the past couple of weeks, i'm not sure20:55
TuvixSimilar populations sizes, within 10% anyway, so it's a decent head-on comparison looking at tests too.20:55
LjLsimilar population density also, i think20:55
LjLprobably less in Italy nominally, but we have less habitable terrain20:55
TuvixI've really started ignoring most high-level test results as a lot less useful beginning with Delta and certainly with Omicron.20:55
LjLi think there is a metric for "density vs habitable land" but i don't remember what it's actually called20:56
LjL%wik Physiological density20:56
BrainstormLjL, from English Wikipedia: The physiological density or real population density is the number of people per unit area of arable land. [... want %more?] → https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physiological_density20:56
LjLthough this WP article is tiny so maybe there is another term that's more common20:56
LjLhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_population_density_based_on_food_growing_capacity20:57
LjLItaly: 0.109, UK: 0.09220:58
LjLso despite the UK being denser, Italy is denser under this different metric20:58
LjLanyway, similar20:58
TuvixI had someone just this month (also stateside) insist that COVID is now just like the flu (influenza.) Going by current 7-day mortality data (CDC) the US is currently experiencing death on a level just over over 23 times greater than annual (average) flu deaths.21:01
TuvixThat's nearly as many as 2 years of those who die from influenza, except happening every month.21:02
TuvixThe US is, to be honest to the data, at or at least quite near its death peak from Omicron going by past trends & falling cases about 3 weeks back nationally, but that's stilly horrifying to hear such an easy to compare figure misquoted.21:03
TuvixAverage 10-year annual avearge US influenza deaths: 36.9k. Pandemic-long COVID-19 deaths: annual average of 463.3k21:04
LjLthere have always been people making that claim kind of irrespective of the actual death rate21:04
LjLone day they will be right, maybe21:04
LjLthe same way broken clocks are21:04
pwr22LjL: the UK is very dense, if you're talking about the people 😂21:05
LjLpwr22, let's not make these comparisons or we'll have to make an awkwardly tall chart if we end up including the US21:06
Tuvixhttps://xkcd.com/116221:06
LjLthat's exactly what i had in mind, scotch-taped chart :P21:07
TuvixI think I need some cute photos instead of links to CDC sources on COVID vs influenza deaths. 2 links is hard for people who have presumably been spoon-fed the lies they believe, as I find most who make the claim don't want to use a pocket-calculator to do what I view as pretty basic math. Perhaps I over-estimate how curious people really are about the claims they make (in fact, I know very well that to21:08
Tuvixbe the case, but I'm also overly curious about the world)21:08
TuvixNothing I'm doing is all that fancy, but I suppose it's just a tad math/geeky. Add up 10 years of CDC flu fatalities, divide by 10 (annual aveage.) Take CDC frontline death total, divide by days since 01-Mar, 2020 (the "start" of our notable death rise) and multiply by 365 (aveage annual COVID-19 deaths.) Compare, or convert to daily/weekly/monthly totals or rates.21:09
xxwell in previous years there may not have been as much testing for flu as a cause of death, which might have made flu look less serious than it really is compared to covid21:12
xx'died of natural causes' being the cause of death, instead of testing for flu21:13
xxor 'system exhaustion' or 'old age' or whatever21:13
TuvixThere's an entire page on how the numbers are calculated: perhaps you'd like to read more about it? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm21:13
TuvixThey don't need to test everyone to have a very high confidence (95% CI according to the claimed margin of error.) This is much the same way that polling works.21:15
xxI'm comparing it to 2020-2022, where if a person gets ill, they get a covid test, whereas in <2020 when a person got sick, they stayed at home and did not get a test for flu21:16
xxso my claim is that those who say that "covid is just the flu" are understimating the lethality and number of cases of the flu21:17
TuvixThis is accounted for in the methods I linked.21:18
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Fabrizio Chiodo (@FabrizioChiodo): -87% of the population fully vaccinated-93% of the population vaccinated with at least one dose-97% of the pediatric population from 2 years old, vaccinated pic.twitter.com/4vDqUwNcDZ → https://twitter.com/FabrizioChiodo/status/149004688890469171221:18
TuvixIf you have suggestions, the CDC has a way to receive feedback; if it's based on sound epidemiology, you might even get a reply from someone skilled if you've managed to uncover a notable flaw in the CDC's data gathering.21:18
TuvixLooks like they have both an email and 800 number if you're serious about this. It's a serious enough claim that you may want to ask the agency for details if the linked page I supplied doesn't answer your concerns, as I doubt anyone here can be more detailed than the page itself and its assortment of references.21:19
xxheh, my suggestion to CDC would be to shut the CDC down and instead establish a new worldwide agency for health that's independent of the UN21:19
TuvixI see. Well, good luck with that then.21:20
TuvixIf you don't want to usefully contribute to this channel's conversation, please don't take time being silly when I work to provide references. I'd rather not put in the effort if it's going to go to waste.21:21
xxit's up to you whether you wish to provide those sources, but please keep in mind that I've already read all those before. I do actually keep track of what's being done around flu, covid and other diseases.21:21
pwr22https://xkcd.com/386/21:23
pwr22This comes to mind 😂21:23
TuvixExcept you seem to miss all the points the article cites, including adjusting specifically to correct for under-detection.21:23
pwr22*xkcd relevance intensifies*21:25
LjLde-facto, do you know if aspirin is part of the standard treatment protocol for mild COVIID patients in Germany?21:56
LjL(or does anyone else know this about Germany?)21:56
BrainstormUpdates for France: +214553 cases, +170 deaths since 23 hours ago22:01
de-factoLjL, good question, i dont actually know how they treat it in hospital, at home its only "wait for recovery" afaik22:30
de-factothey do recommend anticoagulative medication, but dont mention specifics22:36
de-factohttps://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/COVRIIN_Dok/Therapieuebersicht.pdf?__blob=publicationFile <-- there is a list of medications recommended22:36
de-factohttps://www.rki.de/EN/Content/infections/epidemiology/outbreaks/COVID-19/Diagnosis-Treatment-STAKOB.pdf?__blob=publicationFile <-- this is from last summer, not sure how up-to-date it is22:37
LjL-Matrix'cause there's some people who insist here that aspirin or NSAIDs are very helpful, and today one of them explained that they wanted to make a study with aspirin vs paracetamol but they were pressured to avoid the comparison (by what, the paracetamol lobby? O.o) so they only did aspirin vs nothing22:37
LjL-MatrixAnd I went slightly paranoid when I realized paracetamol here is generally known as Tachipirina and it is made by Angelini, which is Italian22:38
LjL-MatrixAspirin is made by Bayer so I was curious if maybe the guidelines were the other way around in Germany22:38
de-factowhy not? i guess Aspirin got anti-coagulative properties and maybe even some mild antiviral properties? (id ask my MD in case i got infected and would consider taking it)22:38
de-factoAspirin is so old that there are no patents on it i would assume22:39
LjL-MatrixNo, they're both produced as generics, but the trademarks Aspirin and Tachipirina are both *extremely" well known here22:39
de-factoParacetamol would lower fever as would Aspirin22:39
de-factoyeah generica22:39
LjL-MatrixYes but it probably wouldn't do anything else22:40
LjL-MatrixMaybe unlike aspirin22:40
LjL-MatrixSo they guidelines here are do nothing, wait, use paracetamol if fever, go to hospital if 92% sats22:40
de-factoyeah sounds like it could be similar here too22:40
de-facto(but i dont know for sure)22:41
de-factomaybe other people from Germany now more details22:41
de-factomaybe ecks know the treatment protocol for mild COVID in Sweden22:43
de-factodo they recommend Aspirin there?22:44
de-factoi did take 100mg Aspirin daily back in 2020 as a precaution, i dont do that anymore now, i rather prefer to take Ginkgo nowadays22:48
de-factowhen I asked my MD about it she warned me that it will of course make my blood coagulation go down (the desired effect), and she said if i had an accident (e.g. bump my head) it significantly will increase my risk for a stroke or such22:49
de-factoasked her about 100mg Aspirin daily back in 202022:50
de-factoalthough i noticed when i hurt myself bleeding also does not really stop quickly, so maybe that Ginkgo (and Green Tea) does have an anti-coagulative effect too22:53
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: No link between population isolation and speciation rate in squamate reptiles, study says, calling into question our understanding of the major drivers of speciation → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/slg869/no_link_between_population_isolation_and/22:54
de-factoi also know that hospitals always ask for Aspirin intake in their initial medical history interview (probably because of the bleeding risk)23:00
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +165 deaths since 23 hours ago23:04
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): One of the few very positive things the pandemic will be remembered by"It’s really limitless what RNA can do"—@WeissmanLab wsj.com/articles/can-t…@JaredSHopkins @felschwartz pic.twitter.com/z7qOYwOZYM → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149008531447960371223:13
ecksHaven't done any clinical work in a while but i doubt we do aspirin here23:13
de-factoLjL, ^^23:22
de-factoecks, is there a reason for probably not using Aspirin in clinical environment? e.g. better alternatives or disadvantages?23:26

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