| ecks | i mean we do use low-dose aspirin for arterial thrombosis prophylaxis but not for vte | 00:11 |
|---|---|---|
| de-facto | so for VTE its more like LMWH? | 00:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Josiah 'So Mild' Grindrod (@JT_Grindrod): Excuse me while I channel my inner pine marten:" this is still omicron! It's been here for an ENTIRE MONTH already! Your wild type vaccine for a functionally extinct variant will work fine! Stop fear mongering! "Did I do it right? twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status… → https://twitter.com/JT_Grindrod/status/1490101946392322049 | 00:20 |
| Tuvix | Blah, I'm really not liking the lack of case-to-death de-coupling poking at OWID. Usins a US vs Italy comparison for example, Italy appears to have around half the peak death rates during the rise and beginning of Omicron's fall, despite a nearly 6x rise in cases. US has closer to 3x rise in cases, yet seems to be peaking around 70-80% of the death rate (as compared to laster winter's surge in both | 00:26 |
| Tuvix | respective countries) | 00:26 |
| Tuvix | It could well be that the US hasn't been doing enough testing historically (and may still not be) per capita vs. other countries, but that alone doesn't really explain the notably worse fatality mitigation when compared with a more shallow comparitive rise in cases, yet similar proportional case-spikes (Italy vs. US) | 00:29 |
| Tuvix | Poking at this data-set: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-08-31..2022-02-03&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Cases+and+deaths&Interval=Biweekly&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA~ITA | 00:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Can the Technology Behind Covid Vaccines Cure Other Diseases?Researchers are developing tools for using messenger RNA to fight the flu, cancer, HIV and other diseases—but challenges remainwsj.com/articles/can-t… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1490103158571515904 | 00:30 |
| Tuvix | Or.. not 3x vs. 6x… I think I grabbed the wrong contry for at least one of those. Scratch that, I'll re-do my plots again :) | 00:31 |
| de-facto | yeah Omicron kills more people than Delta in many places | 00:32 |
| Tuvix | Yea, I was originally comparing how much worse the US has been doing since mid-2021 though, using UK & Italy as comparisons, and adding in Canada when I wanted an example of a bordering neighbor (similar travel access via land/road, global position, etc) but a more friendly population to rules & vaccines. | 00:34 |
| de-facto | e.g. US, UK, etc | 00:34 |
| Tuvix | I suspect vaccinations plays a major role, although UK only recently eased up on most of its remaining restrictions, whereas the US did that 8 or 9 months back now. | 00:34 |
| de-facto | it needs some time to diffuse into the elderly vulnerables, hence the delay to incidence (and also fighting for the life in hospital) | 00:34 |
| de-facto | i am very glad easing up restrictions is off table in Germany for the winter | 00:35 |
| Tuvix | Right, but even excluding Omicron, consider just the lead-into last winter, then Delta & its slow recovery in the US as compared to the UK, here: | 00:35 |
| Tuvix | https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-08-31..2021-12-13&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Cases+and+deaths&country=USA~GBR | 00:36 |
| Tuvix | What strikes me in that OWID graph is that, starting after the swing up in cases in both countries (offset in time, but the Delta wave for both) the UK has fairly flat change in death, while the US spikes and stays high with a very slow recovery. | 00:36 |
| Tuvix | This is even as the UK continues to have notably higher cases, although this could well be them doing more tests. | 00:37 |
| de-facto | UK probably got a lot more immunity in the elderly compared to countries like e.g. US or Germany | 00:38 |
| Tuvix | I don't really think changes in vaccination rate explain that completely either, because vaccination rates were almost identical for fully-vaccinated population percentages (US vs. UK) in early July. | 00:38 |
| de-facto | per age group? | 00:38 |
| Tuvix | Perhaps, but during Delta it wasn't the older groups that died as much relative to the prior winter-wave; it was the *younger* (under 50's) that died more. | 00:38 |
| Tuvix | I have a chart for that in the US, somewhere… | 00:39 |
| Tuvix | https://imgur.com/pgrt7d1 (best open the PNG in a new tab/window) | 00:39 |
| Tuvix | Log scale, but you can clearly see the bottom 4 lines <50 years did worse in Delta. They were also less vaccinatd and virtually unrestricted in social interaction, all playing a factor I'm sure. | 00:40 |
| de-facto | indeed it looks like the older age groups are "compressed" e.g. increase of mortality more pronounced in younger than older | 00:41 |
| de-facto | fot that Delta wave | 00:41 |
| Tuvix | So, at least in the US, it seems vaccination worked very well in the older groups during Delta, and perhaps they gained some immunity in addition if they remained unvaccinated. | 00:41 |
| Tuvix | I'm just continuing to look at timelines and comparison of vaccination and age-groups to poke at why the US has done so much more badly these last 7-8 months. | 00:43 |
| Tuvix | UK is also trending twice the booster doses as the US, so if my prediction that vaccination was the driving cause of the US lack of case/death decoupling, that isn't a good sign for Omicron's ongoing recovery here either. | 00:44 |
| Tuvix | I'm not really sure how much UK restrictions may have helped during Delta there. | 00:44 |
| Tuvix | Although maybe some? I did note the vax rate going into July for Delta was almost identical US vs UK. | 00:45 |
| Tuvix | ICUs far more decoupled in UK as well: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-08-31..2021-12-13&Metric=Vaccine+doses%2C+cases%2C+ICU+patients%2C+and+deaths&country=USA~GBR | 00:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +103959 cases, +865 deaths since 19 hours ago — Netherlands: +40162 cases, +11 deaths since 19 hours ago | 01:09 |
| ecks | de-facto, yes, lmwh or doac | 01:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): Seattle Children’s: During the Omicron surge, the incidence of croup nearly doubled compared to the rate in prior months…we identified a sharp rise in cases of croup seen in our pediatric ED in parallel with the replacement of the Delta [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1490115822613893126 | 01:18 |
| pwr22 | <de-facto> "when I asked my MD about it..." <- It probably makes a thrombotic stroke less likely but a haemorrhagic stroke more likely 😆 | 01:25 |
| de-facto | there are always advantages and disadvantages to every medication, the ratio depends on circumstances | 01:27 |
| LjL | Tuvix, Italy itself is a country with a high death rate (at least in the past); or a low testing rate, whichever, probably a combination | 01:29 |
| Tuvix | Italy had more per-capita death rate before vaccines were widely available vs. the US, but the US is clearly "winning" that awful race since July | 01:47 |
| Tuvix | (though Italy has also seen a spike here wtih Omicron, the US continues to out-pace Italian deaths despite a very similar case-trend in terms of magnitude & timing) | 01:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +5527 cases, +42 deaths since 9 hours ago — France: +12 cases since 4 hours ago | 02:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Pre-infection 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 levels and association with severity of COVID-19 illness - Peer Reviewed → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/sllmlc/preinfection_25hydroxyvitamin_d3_levels_and/ | 02:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The good news is that US Covid hospitalizations are declining at a faster rate than any previous waveSoon will be < 100,000. A long way to get to the nadir of 15,000 last June pic.twitter.com/4Lof51XE6O → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1490138487424643072 | 02:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): How New York City’s Hospitals Withstood the Omicron Surge: The highly contagious coronavirus variant stretched the city’s health care system to the breaking point, but not past — The New York Times nytimes.com/2022/02/05/nyr… → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1490150206767259654 | 03:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +3515 cases, +4382861 tests (0.1% positive) since 4 hours ago | 06:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 863: Does this challenge study pass the smell test?: TWiV reviews the results of a study in which 36 volunteers were infected with SARS-CoV-2, and what was learned about the kinetics of virus reproduction in the nose and throat, development of symptoms, and reliability of lateral flow antigen assays. → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-863/ | 06:14 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +118327 cases since 16 hours ago — Atacama, Chile: +999 cases, +1 deaths since a day ago — Unknown, Peru: +18008 cases, +244 deaths since a day ago — Jiangsu, China: +1 cases since 4 days ago | 07:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: The brains of patients who died as a result of COVID-19 infection displayed some of the same molecular changes found in the brains of those with Alzheimer’s disease, a new small study found. The findings may explain why some long-term COVID [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/slq0p4/the_brains_of_patients_who_died_as_a_result_of/ | 07:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/slr6uz/rates_of_sarscov2_transmission_and_vaccination/ | 08:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 06, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/slrh0o/daily_discussion_thread_february_06_2022/ | 09:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kiribati: +156 cases since a day ago | 12:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Soft drinks can be misused to give false “false positive” SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow device results → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/slvs6l/soft_drinks_can_be_misused_to_give_false_false/ | 13:45 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Tonga: +2 cases since a day ago | 14:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: No Benefit to Adding P2Y12 Inhibitor with Heparin for Moderate COVID-19: Investigators evaluating the risks and benefits of adding antiplatelet therapies to the usual heparin therapy for non-critically ill patients hospitalized with COVID-19 [... want %more?] → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/no-benefit-to-adding-p2y12-inhibitor-with-heparin-for-moderate-covid-19 | 14:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +122414 cases since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +60186 cases since 22 hours ago | 15:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): Of the 11.4 million Covid infections documented in children since the start of the pandemic, 3.5 million infections -- or about 30% of the total -- occurred in just the month of January 2022. In total, children under age 5 account for 1.6 million [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1490337317525106693 | 15:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +7463 cases since 23 hours ago — Germany: +121388 cases, +32 deaths since 22 hours ago — Canada: +6851 cases, +89 deaths since 20 hours ago | 17:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Chronic fatigue associated with post-COVID syndrome versus transient fatigue caused by high intensity exercise: are they comparable in terms of vascular effects? → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sm07p6/chronic_fatigue_associated_with_postcovid/ | 17:15 |
| Arsanerit | I wonder if it's acceptable to go to vacation in Spain in March. | 17:23 |
| xx | acceptable? | 17:24 |
| Arsanerit | Appropriate. | 17:25 |
| Arsanerit | Wise. | 17:25 |
| Arsanerit | It does have the lowest score of all EU countries at https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/country-overviews | 17:25 |
| Arsanerit | (where low is good) | 17:26 |
| xx | ah | 17:27 |
| xx | well nobody knows what it's gonna be like in march. Maybe it will be over, maybe a new variant will come out that's deadlier than all previous ones | 17:27 |
| xx | if you take all precautions, then you'll be most likely fine | 17:28 |
| Arsanerit | Well, the best precaution is to stay home. | 17:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Whereas most European countries kept their hospitalizations and ICU admissions < 50% of pandemic peak during the Omicron wave, the US was 120% and 93%, respectivelyft.com/content/dfea2e… and @OurWorldInData pic.twitter.com/b2Kg8BeTmS → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1490362403040612354 | 17:35 |
| xx | Arsanerit: indeed | 17:37 |
| xx | probably saves money too | 17:37 |
| Arsanerit | dying also saves money | 17:41 |
| xx | true | 17:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "This has been a real serious breach of the CDC since the vaccination campaign began - the unwillingness to recognize that a prior confirmed COVID is at least as good as one vaccine dose." As I conveyed @NPR with @robsteinnews and @NPRinskeepnpr.org/transcripts/10… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1490364106057994246 | 17:44 |
| de-facto | i am against potential mutant propagation by traveling (without quarantine) in general | 17:45 |
| xx | I'm against every new infection due to its potential to create viable mutants | 17:46 |
| de-facto | that said, Spain seems to have a very high vaccination rate, hence intends to treat COVID like an influenza or such | 17:46 |
| xx | would be cool if european countries treated influenza the way asian countries do | 17:46 |
| de-facto | hence i suspect they wont have containment efforts in place, especially not in March after the Omicron wave is over | 17:47 |
| de-facto | how that influences the potential breeding ground for new mutants, that remains to be seen | 17:47 |
| de-facto | but then Spain is inside Schengen and Europe, borders are open and its one zone of political influence, so it does make sense to treat whole of Europe as one compartment (if member states only could agree on shared containment strategies) | 17:48 |
| de-facto | e.g. if a mutant is present in one EU country it will propagate into all of the other EU countries with certainty (by travelers) | 17:49 |
| de-facto | it would make more sense to close all outside borders, put mandatory and controlled quarantine in place for all travelers entering EU from abroad and make no exceptions to that ever | 17:50 |
| de-facto | e.g. if there was no open travel route from India or SA (or UK) importing Delta or Omicron would have been a lot more difficult and may have been traceable due to low import probability | 17:51 |
| de-facto | i hope that EU will consider closing borders when the next nasty mutant emerges somewhere in the world | 17:52 |
| de-facto | because it will come, no questions about that | 17:52 |
| xx | by the time it is detected elsewhere, it will be too late | 17:52 |
| de-facto | yes indeed | 17:52 |
| xx | and reactively closing borders just means they'll hide it | 17:52 |
| de-facto | so it would be wise to close borders now | 17:52 |
| xx | yeah, had they closed borders two years ago and never opened them, in every country, the pandemic would have likely died out way before delta | 17:53 |
| de-facto | its about preventing propagation of mutants between zones of political control over containment | 17:53 |
| xx | that uncontacted tribe is probably corona free | 17:53 |
| xx | they know how to close and protect borders | 17:54 |
| de-facto | if one zone was able to fight down one mutant it should not be able to escape into another zone and propagate like this through all the zones | 17:54 |
| xx | in fact, they are so good at it, that they get other countries to do it for them | 17:54 |
| de-facto | logistic transport channels should remain open (for economic reasons) but no (transported) propagation of living beings should be allowed across borders without mandatory quarantine, regardless of current incidence | 17:58 |
| de-facto | just as a general architectural approach to approach a sustainable way of globalized society for humanity that does NOT allow instant global spread of any infectious pathogen | 18:00 |
| de-facto | i wish more people would understand that SARS-CoV-2 is a forgiving demonstration where we do have SERIOUS problems with biosecurity, its the opportunity to restructure global society in a way that prevents global pathogen spread, because its not a question of if a more deadly pathogen will emerge somewhere, its only a question of if we are ready to prevent its spread when it emerges | 18:02 |
| de-facto | and right now we do have the opportunity to implement and *test* such compartmentalized containment strategies against the real spread of SARS-CoV-2, it may be our last opportunity to test that prior to a really deadly pathogen pandemic | 18:04 |
| de-facto | i just wish more people would understand how important this is, not COVID but developing competence in controlling transmission paths | 18:04 |
| de-facto | that is why i get angry at all "rising white flag and giving up, let it rip through population" approaches | 18:05 |
| de-facto | because by that we learn how NOT to prevent spread at all | 18:05 |
| de-facto | Asian countries seem to be a bit more ambitious in achieving their goals and their societies seem to have more cohesion in being persistent of achieving a shared goal such as containing a disease and dont directly give up on first sign of disagreement or such, also they wont tolerate sabotage | 18:12 |
| xx | neither SARS-1 nor MERS taught the western world a valuable lesson | 18:20 |
| xx | so I wouldn't really expect SARS-2 to be dealt with properly either | 18:20 |
| xx | and SARS-3 will be the same problem if it comes out, and will once again be full of politics | 18:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation): Although he acknowledges "we're not close to the end right now" with COVID, @ScottGottliebMD says "I think what governors are sensing is that we need to agree upon a set of metrics when we're going to start to roll back these mitigation steps." pic.twitter.com/bUpU9XKhyz → https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1490371579788009472 | 18:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation): "I still believe it was important to get baseline immunity in children ahead of the omicron wave," @ScottGottliebMD says about the FDA's decision not to authorize Pfizer's vaccine for kids under 5 back in December. pic.twitter.com/dq9ghTlMkm → https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1490376392680550400 | 18:31 |
| Arsanerit | The world will not put the type of permanent human biosecurity protection in place that would be needed to stop the next big pandemic before it is detected and too late. | 18:38 |
| de-facto | well and for that reason it will come, maybe humanity only learns when its more deadly | 18:42 |
| de-facto | by then humanity will wish to have learned more from dealing with SARS-CoV-2 and blaming us, living now, for now having used that unique opportunity | 18:46 |
| de-facto | blaming us, living now, for *not having used that unique opportunity | 18:46 |
| Arsanerit | Perhaps. | 18:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation): "I think they'll see the data package has evolved from when they first looked at it back in December," @ScottGottliebMD says about the FDA's upcoming decision on Pfizer's vaccine for kids under 5. pic.twitter.com/toQU6xLuNk → https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1490380924810313728 | 18:50 |
| Arsanerit | I am not convinced sufficient compartmentalisation is possible at land borders. | 18:52 |
| Arsanerit | Even less so if pathogens can be transferred by animals. | 18:52 |
| xx | haven't seen many land animals cross barbed wire | 18:53 |
| de-facto | well borders would have to be closed for controlling transit, and contact to (wild) animals should be avoided anyhow, as it is how most pandemics start | 18:53 |
| Arsanerit | xx: depending on their skills, animals might jump, swim, fly, or dig. | 18:54 |
| xx | yeah flying is a problem | 18:54 |
| Arsanerit | Hard to avoid contact to wild animals 100%. | 18:54 |
| xx | ISS should be safe | 18:55 |
| xx | top of mt everest too | 18:55 |
| Arsanerit | I collided with an unknown flying animal once when cycling in the dark through the forest. Only later thit I realise it might have been prudent to get checked for rabies (even though I was not bitten). | 18:55 |
| xx | yeah that was likely a bat | 18:55 |
| Arsanerit | Yes, and if I collided with it, possibly a sick one. | 18:55 |
| xx | they don't really understand bikes | 18:56 |
| Arsanerit | As I think it would have avoided me if healthy. | 18:56 |
| Arsanerit | But who knows, I might have been patient zero for the next pandemic. | 18:56 |
| xx | also, even a scratch where it doesn't fully penetrate the skin (no blood visible) can be enough for rabies | 18:57 |
| de-facto | bats can transmit rabies indeed | 18:58 |
| de-facto | birds can propagate influenza | 18:58 |
| Arsanerit | It can be, which is why I should have gone for a check-up, but I didn't think of it at the time (nearly 3 years ago). | 18:58 |
| de-facto | so yeah there are limits to such approaches of course, but its about lowering the propability of propagation between compartments | 18:59 |
| de-facto | and if sufficiently limited it may suffice to maintain control, depending on pathogen properties of course | 18:59 |
| de-facto | with SARS-CoV-2 (which already is very infectious hence quite a challenge) it may have worked | 18:59 |
| de-facto | as seen by countries being able to fight down mutants of it successfully and also countries being able to prevent imports of variants | 19:00 |
| de-facto | its definitely possible, only a question of determination and skills | 19:00 |
| Arsanerit | Apparently there's some game where players control a virus aiming to eradicate humanity, and it's hard because Madagascar seals off immediately. | 19:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +78943 cases, +229 deaths, +686544 tests (11.5% positive) since 22 hours ago | 19:01 |
| xx | meanwhile you get these rabies-seekers https://i.4cdn.org/an/1643916845186.webm | 19:01 |
| xx | damn bugchasing | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | It's possible, but when there's not a sufficiently dangerous pandemic already active, people will not accept the necessary restrictions. | 19:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Hugo Rojo (@hugorojo): .@margbrennan asking @ScottGottliebMD on @FaceTheNation today about timeline for the youngest Americans to have the option to get vaccinated. Illuminating to hear her ask this on behalf of millions of parents, too. WATCH: cbsnews.com/news/transcrip… pic.twitter.com/cELqB4h4zJ → https://twitter.com/hugorojo/status/1490381822353711104 | 19:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The highly consistent magnitude of % reduction of deaths by vaccination and boosters across all ages 18+ in 2 countries, per 100,000 people2-shots 91-93%3-shots 99%ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-b…In Switzerland, there were no deaths <age 60 for vaxx +/- [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1490390029352333314 | 19:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): This study aims to address what is necessary for high levels of Omicron immunity. As we should define adjectives quantitatively if possible (thinking of a particular big pharma), we can define "high levels" as those associated with >75% disease [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1490393334866579458 | 19:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +53398 cases, +75 deaths since 23 hours ago — Germany: +121298 cases, +37 deaths since 23 hours ago | 20:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): So to compare infection with the first vax dose, we should compare the orange bars in Fig 1a with the blue bars in Fig 1b. The vaccine here is Pfizer. EU1 = early isolate.Immunity post-infection is stronger (higher) and broader (extends to Omicron) [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1490400632146063362 | 20:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): Likewise we can compare infection+PF to PF+PF (where each PF is one dose of Pfizer vaccine). Infection+PF is still stronger and broader than PF+PF.Should mention these are neutralization assays on real virus to measure neutralizing antibodies (nAbs). [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1490403183327268867 | 20:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +6967 cases, +80 deaths since 23 hours ago | 21:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): Good thing: Omicron nAbs in most PF+PF+latePF are higher than nAbs to the early strain post-infection (g vs a), which was associated with ~60% protection.And now the big question is whether nAbs might persist for longer after the 3rd stimulation. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1490417341036777475 | 21:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): BTW, a 3-hit rule is both simple and completely expected. It's what we use already for most vaccines, as @zeynep points out.twitter.com/zeynep/status/… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1490419974275428352 | 21:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): So this is a clear case of the evidence leading to a recommendation of 3 hits for everyone regardless of vaccine type, except you can only use J&J once. I recommended a 3-shot rule in December:twitter.com/michaelzlin/st… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1490422721930403842 | 21:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): Conveniently, 3 exposures as the rule would also be easier to remember, rather than CDC's Twister-like recommendations. Thus "3 strikes and COVID's out" would be both following the science and communicating well. CDC says they try to do both. Will they? → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1490422723423576066 | 21:43 |
| xx | ^ so someone who gets covid 3 times doesn't need to get vaccinated? | 21:55 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +155439 cases, +129 deaths since 19 hours ago | 22:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): How to misinterpret clinical outcome data in populations by age subgroupserictopol.substack.com/p/how-to-misin… an explainer for booster vaccine impact across ages @SubstackInc → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1490428599005900802 | 22:02 |
| de-facto | such statements dont make too much sense if not put into relation to their counterpart | 22:10 |
| de-facto | so what is the counterpart for immune protection? | 22:10 |
| de-facto | 1) immune system resource contraction, e.g. when the pathogen is not seen for some time the immune system will free some of its limited resources to be available for other intruders | 22:11 |
| de-facto | 2) antigenic drift of the pathogen by mutation and selection for fitness | 22:11 |
| de-facto | so statements like "3 vaccinations" or "3 infections" would have to be made 1) per unit time (e.g. in which time window they occurred) and 2) per phylogenetic distance (genetic differences) between the antigen of immunization and currently circulating wild type | 22:13 |
| de-facto | also the endpoint would have to be specified, what is the goal? when is it sufficiently fulfilled? | 22:14 |
| de-facto | because epitope conservation (and immune branch contraction) may depend on if the endpoint in question depends on e.g. B-cell epitopes (e.g. infection) or T-cell epitopes (e.g. severe progression) etc | 22:15 |
| LjL | jnnnnnnnnn, you seem to be bouncing | 22:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Three exposures to the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 by either infection or vaccination elicit superior neutralizing immunity to all variants of concern → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sm9xmf/three_exposures_to_the_spike_protein_of_sarscov2/ | 23:47 |
| Tuvix | The more interesting data-points with this 3-exposures theory will be the ongoing reinfection rate, a fairly new area of study, and any change in protection for a future varient. | 23:51 |
| Tuvix | I wonder how many people have actually had 3 *confirmed* and separate COVID infections that could be used as a control group against the more available data on 2 & 3-dose mRNA vaccinated groups. | 23:53 |
| xx | so theoretically those who were infected 3 separate times (and likely with different variants) have stronger protection than those who receive the vaccine about the same old variant 3 times | 23:53 |
| xx | s/about/against | 23:54 |
| de-facto | the problem with reinfections is how to measure them accurately: it would require constant screening with PCR on regular basis to do that | 23:54 |
| de-facto | and we dont even have enough PCR cap to confirm infections | 23:54 |
| xx | yeah it would be a pain to demonstrate verifiably | 23:54 |
| xx | unless they use those human trials and reinfect the people over the whole year | 23:54 |
| Tuvix | PCR confirmation is even worse with the unvaccinated group, since they largely don't want any medical involvement until their cases are quite serious. | 23:55 |
| de-facto | also its probably contamination dose dependent: there will be a critical exposure dose that is able to overcome the current immune protection and transition into an exponential replication phase (at least for some time) until the immune reaction is able to catch up with antigen replication and prevent further escalation | 23:56 |
| xx | Tuvix: I know someone who had the worst "flu" in january 2020 after coming back from china, and then had PCR verified covid in dec 2020 and again in oct/nov 2021 | 23:56 |
| Tuvix | That's specifically my point about data; we can make estimations based on lab tests of virus neutralization, but the real goal isn't lab results; it's real-world results. That's why a direct comparison is really needed, but getting patients who qualify under *confirmed* infections is the tricky part with that. | 23:56 |
| Tuvix | de-facto: That's a decent point too, and I wonder if mitigations like masks, even though we know they have limitations especially factoring in imperfect use by the general public, could for instance reduce a positive case viral load and possibly improve outcomes. | 23:57 |
| Tuvix | xx: That's actually a decent case-example: so they only had 2 confirmed cases, but "maybe" 3 (perhaps even possibly.) But it's still not 3 confirmed infections. | 23:58 |
| xx | yeah :( | 23:58 |
| Tuvix | If you're doing comparison studies, you don't want a good portion of your candidates to be "we think they had <x> many" :\ | 23:58 |
| xx | I'm pretty sure lots of people who had the weirdest flu in january 2020 actually had covid, but it's impossible to provide data for that | 23:58 |
| Tuvix | At the very least you need to track & chart them separately, and my suspection is it's very hard to find viable patients given the lack of interest in following medical advice, like to get tested. | 23:59 |
| xx | and if they had covid afterwards, it would mask any possibility of finding out | 23:59 |
| Tuvix | Exactly. | 23:59 |
| Tuvix | I think this would be a very interesting area to learn more about, I just worry it's going to be slow coming with useful data given the timeline and co-founding factors that clearly exist. | 23:59 |
| de-facto | quite likely contamination dose not only correlates with infection risk but also probability for symptoms | 23:59 |
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