| de-facto | the aim should be to induce *broader* spectrum of immunity, meaning that the library of memory B-cells contain a broader variety of epitopes, so that in case of contamination the probability that among them there are at least a few that are able to produce binding antibodies is increased | 00:02 |
|---|---|---|
| de-facto | its about the variety not so much about the absolute titers | 00:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +63319 cases, +1173 deaths since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +63427 cases since 14 hours ago | 00:03 |
| Tuvix | Right, the amount of antibodies needed is less important, as we saw with Omicron from at least boostd people, despite a somewhat weak effectiveness (by comparison to even Delta and certainly Alpha or the original) | 00:04 |
| de-facto | via feedback the immune system will chose those that are able to fit (at least i think so) | 00:04 |
| de-facto | with this virus there never will be neutralizing immunity ever, so allowing it to coexist with us means we all will get infected by it sooner or later | 00:05 |
| de-facto | again and again | 00:06 |
| de-facto | so best we can hope for is that our immune system develops a broad library of memory T/B-cells that at least is able to lower the viral load a bit and lower the health damage | 00:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Governor Ned Lamont (@GovNedLamont): We’ve made considerable progress against Covid. Infection rates have dramatically dropped and folks across CT have many tools on hand to keep themselves safe. That’s why, as of February 28th, school and childcare mask mandates will be decided by [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GovNedLamont/status/1490812606247936004 | 00:08 |
| de-facto | the hope that the "pandemic will be over" is unrealistic, it will continue indefinitely | 00:09 |
| Tuvix | Well, getting to a properly endemic stage would be nice; a number of folks have tried to say that covid really is endemic, but don't give good reasons for that. If countries get hit this hard every time there's a spike in cases, we'd better build entire dedicated facilities for it. | 00:10 |
| Tuvix | OWID shows the US impact on ICU capacity has peaked at nearly the same value for 3 VoCs now: Alpha, Delta, and (currently) Omicron. | 00:11 |
| de-facto | well so far each year the infection numbers increased 10-fold | 00:11 |
| de-facto | so idk that sounds like its escalating more and more | 00:11 |
| Tuvix | And sadly, Delta/Omicron had widely accessible and highly effective vaccines availbale that could have prevented the ICU admits. | 00:11 |
| de-facto | maybe at some point people begin to understand that the only way that really works is contact restriction | 00:13 |
| de-facto | how much deaths did COVID cause each year? | 00:14 |
| Tuvix | In the US, we're at an annual aveage of ≈463k/yr (official counts only, as the excess deaths are certainly a bit higher) | 00:14 |
| de-facto | seems like the deaths have a peak on each new variant https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ | 00:15 |
| de-facto | a year ago 13k daily deaths, today 10k daily deaths | 00:16 |
| de-facto | not much improvement at all | 00:16 |
| Tuvix | Right, it certainly seems worse in the unvaccinated for sure, with Delta due in part I think to worse outcomes and in Omicron more due to volume. | 00:16 |
| de-facto | well testing also increased, so its a bit hard to tell | 00:17 |
| Tuvix | The US saw both fewer estimated cases per capita with Delta (vs. Alpha) and fewer deaths, but it impacted the younger/unvaccinated more compared to the same age-groups the wave prior. | 00:17 |
| de-facto | but deaths, stayed more or less the same | 00:17 |
| Tuvix | In the US, Delta (using a beginning-to-end of the "worst" of the peaks) had only about 44% the deaths that Alpha did. | 00:18 |
| de-facto | so how much longer should we tolerate this? i mean how many more years does it take until acceptance for zero-covid is more wide spread? | 00:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Durability of Anti-Spike Antibodies in Infants After Maternal COVID-19 Vaccination or Natural Infection"Vaccination resulted in significantly greater antibody persistence in infants than infection."jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1490824396289757186 | 00:18 |
| Tuvix | Zero covid? I don't think that's realistic to get society on-board with, not unless this gets perhaps 10 times worse. | 00:18 |
| de-facto | wait for it | 00:18 |
| Tuvix | But doing more than shrugging and giving empty platitudes of how it will "get better" and we're "past the worst of it." | 00:19 |
| Tuvix | It's always true that we're past the worst of it… until the next wave hits and it's bad in new and different ways. | 00:19 |
| de-facto | yeah i hear that for two years now "we are over it, bla bla" yet here we are in the biggest wave ever | 00:19 |
| LjL | and yet NZ and Australia which were pursuing zero COVID... aren't anymore | 00:20 |
| de-facto | thats nothing more than wishful thinking | 00:20 |
| de-facto | yeah a gigantic mistake | 00:20 |
| xx | I'm pursuing zero covid for myself | 00:20 |
| de-facto | correction: astronomic mistake | 00:20 |
| xx | been successful so far, with a few scares | 00:20 |
| Tuvix | At this point the only thing keeping society functioning is the quite-high VE against medically-required intervention and death. | 00:20 |
| Tuvix | If we loose that, or even backslide to say 50% or worse protection against severe outcomes, we're in for a lot of trouble. | 00:21 |
| xx | we'll likely be getting more honk honk worldwide | 00:21 |
| Tuvix | And then, what we neeed 6+ months to re-tool vaccines and hope that improves things? | 00:21 |
| Tuvix | I mean, this is kind of a just-better-than-worst-case situation I've proposed, but I don't think it's out of the question either as a possability | 00:22 |
| de-facto | i still think its a big big mistake to let it "rip through" and "breed freely" etc | 00:22 |
| de-facto | lets see how it turns out, i stay with my opinion: the only sane thing to do is zero-covid by cutting down transmission paths | 00:22 |
| Tuvix | True, but the recent NY Times article on mitigations and social acceptance had some interesting points too. You can't enforce what the public is unwilling to accept. | 00:22 |
| Tuvix | Politicians also understand that pushing for what is effective is sometimes a good way to get voted out of office and someone with a completely oposite view put in power instead. | 00:23 |
| de-facto | well honestly the press keeps teasing the public about "getting back freedom" and "pandemic fatigue" and "worst is over" etc | 00:23 |
| de-facto | not quite constructive, rather borderline sabotage imho | 00:23 |
| Tuvix | It's unfortinuate, but lots of the discussion around mitigations and "the new normal" is a political statement, not a scientific one. | 00:23 |
| de-facto | this summer will be quite well i assume (and hope) | 00:25 |
| de-facto | but next fall, it will start all over again | 00:26 |
| Tuvix | Perhaps even summer, if we have another Delta-like spread in the global north | 00:26 |
| de-facto | i dont think so, but certainly not impossible | 00:26 |
| Tuvix | I too have the same complaint about even generally science-following news outlets here. Yes, they're more honest about the case & death totals and effectiveness of vaccines that the borderline anti-vax leaning networks, but it's always tempered with how to go out and do the things people want like dining & gatherings & parties | 00:29 |
| LjL | i don't think the media are sabotaging anything, but rather saying what they've agreed with governments to say, at least in Europe. the media have changed their tune a few times to go with the government tune. | 00:29 |
| de-facto | yes that indeed would be compatible with what we observe | 00:30 |
| de-facto | it depends on the type of media though | 00:30 |
| de-facto | some openly push for ending all restrictions, against government efforts to hold together cohesion in response to exploding infection numbers, and even openly call for firing the head of agencies that have served us so well with scientific analysis such as RKI | 00:32 |
| de-facto | so there definitely are some media, like Axel Springers BILD in Germany that make it extra difficult for government to hold together cohesion, in my view that is borderline sabotage | 00:33 |
| de-facto | so called Boulevard press | 00:33 |
| Tuvix | Sure, although I presume these outlets held similar views on past issues too, so it's not exactly a surprise they'd continue that position. | 00:34 |
| Tuvix | We've got a handful of them here, and our ex-president didn't exactly help temper that with a call for calm and to follow the science. | 00:34 |
| de-facto | i actually think the negative impact of such media is a big problem, they reach millions and politicians dont stand against them because they know they will get attacked publicly and attempts on their careers been made | 00:36 |
| de-facto | right at the biggest increase of new infections ever they title "Give us back our normal life" calling for ending all restrictions, basically pouring oil into the exploding outbreak | 00:39 |
| de-facto | making it extra difficult for government to convince people to stay together in a combined effort to prevent further increase in daily new infections or to try to shield immuno-naive risk groups that will end in the hospital etc | 00:40 |
| de-facto | btw just a sidenote: Politico recently was bought by Axel Springer SE, so they also try to go onto the US market | 00:43 |
| Tuvix | I really think the opportunity was missed to decide that the biggest concern is reducing severe outcomes and strain on the healthcare system. Realizing that zero deaths annually is just not realistic, a target such as 'no worse than <x> times seasonal influenza' at least gives a measuring stick for comparison. I'd even be content if that was some moderately acceptable number above 1. US pandemic avearge | 00:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): One year follow up of teens with #LongCovid (N>6,600) and matched controls (>21,000): higher odds of symptoms, more sick days and school absences thelancet.com/journals/lanch… largest and longest study @LancetChildAdol @Rigshospitalet pic.twitter.com/acAzMhhffQ → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1490833080042491906 | 00:46 |
| Tuvix | is 12.5x, and our current near-omicron-peak rate is 22.6x | 00:46 |
| de-facto | Axel Springer (Press) not to be confused with Julius Springer (Science) | 00:47 |
| de-facto | well both Influenza and COVID may recruit from a similar sub-cohort of vulnerable, so e.g. if COVID depleted those there may be less left to claim for Influenza and vise versa | 00:48 |
| de-facto | surely the overlap may differ at some points though | 00:49 |
| Tuvix | Of course, this was more of a general comparison about what level of impact is acceptable. If something like opoid overdose deaths, or gun violence took a 10x spike in 2 years, most countries would be seriously evaluating their strategy and what had gone wrong. | 00:53 |
| LjL | that's a pretty crazy CI for fever in that study on long covid above | 00:53 |
| LjL | Tuvix, what if one developed country steadily had 10x the gun violence rate as other developed countries? | 00:54 |
| Tuvix | I mean, the US does when compared to a lot of their peers there too, and it is indeed a social problem (in our case, made worse when you evaulate it against social inequality between specific groups of the population, namely minorities) | 00:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A 2nd #LongCovid study in teens with negative test controls reports a higher proportion of multiple symptoms among cases after 3 months thelancet.com/journals/lanch… pic.twitter.com/ZiAP3MTEXp → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1490835881548075009 | 00:56 |
| Tuvix | We 'accept' it, but wouldn't have to. Not unlike protest against any meaningful COVID restrictions, there's an entier political party that largely doesn't want to even look at the problem. | 00:56 |
| Tuvix | Even something less immediately leath like smoking has seen pressure ramped up significantly over the last say 2 decades or so. Back then, I remember indoor dining commonly had smoking & non-smoking sections, but you could often smell the smoke anyway especially in nearby tables. Now nearly everywhere bans it indoors, raised taxes on tobacco products to discourage purchasing, and increased messaging | 01:00 |
| Tuvix | about the dangers. | 01:00 |
| Tuvix | leathal* | 01:00 |
| Tuvix | All of that could likewise be considered an afront to freedom, but it's understood that the freedom of those who don't want to smoke shouldn't be taken away by those that do want to. | 01:01 |
| Tuvix | Put another way, your right to ruin your lungs doesn't allow you to ruin mine. | 01:01 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i think my point, aside from a general jab at the US, was that a *sharp spike in time* on something is more noticeably and maybe generates less complacency than a mere comparison between different places ("oh they're distant, they're different") or something that changed slowly in time ("sure, we have 10x more deaths than 50 years ago, but we have only a few more deaths than last year, no biggie") | 01:02 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i think one thing in that respect is that the state *banning* something is often seen as more acceptable than the state *forcing* something, at least given some measure of "we're used to this but not to that" | 01:03 |
| Tuvix | Also a good point, and I'd thought of that as I was making th epoint. On the other hand, there's existing precedent for requiremnets on what you must do as well; children can't enroll in most schools without a baseline set of vaccinations due to the risk to the other children at the institutions. | 01:04 |
| LjL | but we did already have a moderately strong pushback against that before COVID | 01:05 |
| LjL | "anti-vax" isn't a term that was coined for COVID, it had gained a fair amount of notoriety in the past several years | 01:05 |
| LjL | Italy had its first extensive measles outbreaks in like decades, due to it | 01:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +77715 cases, +5 deaths since 23 hours ago | 01:06 |
| Tuvix | Yup, but it's a lot worse now, especially in the younger agegroups at least here in the US. 12-18 year olds are much more obviousl under-vaccinated against COVID than for any other disease that have largely-required vaccination standards. | 01:06 |
| LjL | and now we have vaccines that are more experimental, less uncontroversially efficacious, and during a general situation of turmoil | 01:06 |
| LjL | speaking of youth this abstract confuses me https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(22)00004-9/fulltext | 01:06 |
| de-facto | COVID fatalities 2020-12-31 ~ 1.9M yet 2021-12-31 ~ 5.4M, hence increase by 1.84 ~ (5.4-1.9)/1.9 - fold | 01:06 |
| LjL | for a few things it's saying the *case* group is faring *better* than the *control* group? | 01:06 |
| de-facto | so if the goal was to prevent health damage and death, that did not really work, comparing 2020 with 2021 | 01:07 |
| de-facto | and that is when taking back restrictions happened, when cohesion was weakened etc | 01:07 |
| LjL | de-facto, what about if you compare the second semester of 2020 with 2021? many countries didn't have covid in 2020 for the first few months | 01:08 |
| de-facto | so what do we have to expect, further following down that exact path that lead to increase in infecitons, health damage and death? | 01:08 |
| de-facto | switching to "linear" mode on deaths with https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ | 01:10 |
| de-facto | hovering gives the absolute numbers as time function | 01:10 |
| de-facto | i mean what do we expect from allowing tens of millions of daily new infections? of course that got a major impact on peoples health and may even take the life of some | 01:12 |
| Tuvix | Infections wouldn't be so bad if the outcomes were in check. The common cold infects a lot too, but it's typically not a big deal outside of a small group of people with pretty nasty prior conditions. | 01:12 |
| de-facto | Registered Omicron infections peaked at 3.3M daily, but real numbers probably exceeded that by something like an order of magnitude, hence never appear in official data | 01:13 |
| de-facto | i can not remember when i ever got influenza or a cold | 01:14 |
| de-facto | i hear everyone around me here got fucking COVID now though | 01:14 |
| LjL | Breaking news: common cold is uncommon | 01:16 |
| de-facto | thats what i meant | 01:17 |
| LjL | and i'm being sarcastic | 01:17 |
| LjL | it's pretty common and that *you* haven't got it recently doesn't mean much | 01:17 |
| de-facto | compared to COVID its uncommon yeah | 01:17 |
| de-facto | right now | 01:17 |
| Tuvix | masks help, at least among those that wear them ;) | 01:17 |
| de-facto | definitely | 01:17 |
| LjL | i'm reading https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(22)00004-9/fulltext and not really understanding it but maybe it's better if i just continue arguing whether or not zero covid is a viable strategy | 01:18 |
| Tuvix | yea, the introduction is a bit odd, although I wonder if the quality-of-life business is perhaps related to mitigations applied in the control group that didn't get COVID? | 01:19 |
| Tuvix | We know that some of the more strict measures like remote-learning and physical distaincing takes a toll on children more than adults, and that could perhaps be related? The case-group was out sick more suggesting they had more impact from symptoms, but test scores and social interaction could have suffered more in groups that had fewer protections and thus were more likely to catch covid. | 01:20 |
| Tuvix | I'd imagine my friends that are spending lots of time indoors with others outside their households and going out to eat/drink would score higher socially too. | 01:21 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i'm reading the rest too, and it looks like they have three groups: positives, not-known-positives, and confirmed long COVID sufferers. but i don't find the distinction very clear | 01:21 |
| LjL | "Denmark is one of the countries testing the most, with a mean of almost ten PCR tests per person from the beginning of the pandemic up to when the survey was administered, and as many antigen tests." ← this is so ridiculously higher than Italy ;( | 01:21 |
| LjL | %cases denmark | 01:21 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Denmark has had 2.1 million confirmed cases (35.6% of all people) and 3935 deaths (0.2% of cases; 1 in 1480 people) as of 3 hours ago. 121.7 million tests were done (1.7% positive). 4.8 million were vaccinated (82.6%). +35255 cases since 18 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Denmark&legacy=no | 01:21 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 01:21 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Italy has had 11.7 million confirmed cases (19.4% of all people) and 149097 deaths (1.3% of cases; 1 in 404 people) as of 6 hours ago. 176.6 million tests were done (6.6% positive). 48.5 million were vaccinated (80.6%). +41602 cases, +326 deaths, +393663 tests since a day ago. See https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-dashboard or https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/ | 01:21 |
| LjL | gee. a similar number of tests, despite, what, 1/6th of the population? | 01:22 |
| LjL | hope more like 1/12th | 01:22 |
| LjL | embarrassing | 01:22 |
| Tuvix | There's lots of that going around. Like when the CDC ignores testing on their return-to-work guidance, despite studies showing how many positive people that'll send back into close contact, combined with pretty poor mask guidance. | 01:23 |
| de-facto | Denmark is very very good at testing, sequencing and vaccinating | 01:23 |
| Tuvix | Sure, test volume is a part of it, but if that's the cause, just say so. Explain that we'd like <x> but can't do that becuse of <y> so we're going to suggest <z> as a measure we think the public can support and do something to reduce cases. | 01:24 |
| Tuvix | The lack of transparency is what has people in multiple countries feeling like they don't get good information from agencies whose entire public-facing job is to explain science in a way that applies to them. | 01:24 |
| Tuvix | I don't want to be told that smoking is a problem but it's 'suggested' I don't stand next to smokers. I want to be told the harms of 2nd hand smoke and to remove myself from situations where it's present to improve my outcomes. | 01:25 |
| LjL | Tuvix, yeah it's pretty maddening, instead of saying "we don't have enough tests" they basically said "people are getting tested too much here, you shouldn't get tested on a whim" here | 01:27 |
| LjL | blaming the victim much | 01:27 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 01:27 |
| LjL | %cases denmark | 01:27 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Italy has had 11.7 million confirmed cases (19.4% of all people) and 149097 deaths (1.3% of cases; 1 in 404 people) as of 6 hours ago. 176.6 million tests were done (2.9 per capita, 6.6% positive). 48.5 million were vaccinated (80.6%). See https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-dashboard or https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/ | 01:27 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Denmark has had 2.1 million confirmed cases (35.6% of all people) and 3935 deaths (0.2% of cases; 1 in 1480 people) as of 3 hours ago. 121.7 million tests were done (20.9 per capita, 1.7% positive). 4.8 million were vaccinated (82.6%). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Denmark&legacy=no | 01:28 |
| LjL | now it will be easier to see just how bad we are at testing | 01:28 |
| Tuvix | Indeed. Although this said, I do feel a bit bad for our acting CDC directory because she's really not good at trying to explain and summarize recommendations like that which don't really have a scientific basis. She's a lot better when presenting information with a factual basis. | 01:28 |
| Tuvix | director* | 01:28 |
| de-facto | which country is the one with least tests per capita? Denmark, UK, Italy, US or Germany? | 01:29 |
| de-facto | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day?tab=chart&country=DNK~DEU~ITA~USA~GBR | 01:30 |
| de-facto | and the winner is... Germany (almost an order of magnitude less testing than Denmark) | 01:30 |
| LjL | de-facto, i think Germany might be a bit misleading because you had a lot of very cheap "supermarket tests" that weren't counted | 01:30 |
| de-facto | ok well thats a fair point, they will be included now though, because... we completely ran out of PCR capacity. BIG surprise, nobody could have seen that one coming | 01:31 |
| de-facto | (sorry for sarcasm) | 01:32 |
| LjL | %cases germany | 01:32 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Germany has had 11.2 million confirmed cases (13.5% of all people) and 119495 deaths (1.1% of cases; 1 in 696 people) as of 2 hours ago. 89.6 million tests were done (1.1 per capita, 12.5% positive). 61.8 million were vaccinated (74.3%). See https://corona.rki.de/ | 01:32 |
| de-facto | incidence twice as high as UK | 01:32 |
| de-facto | with lots of less testing | 01:32 |
| LjL | 1.1 vs 20.9 is a fair bit more than an order of magnitude, fwiw :P | 01:32 |
| LjL | de-facto, how will they include them? will they require people to report the result to the government like they do in the UK (where most people don't report it anyway)? | 01:33 |
| de-facto | they will allow official testing stations to use cheap antigen quicktests to certify an infection | 01:33 |
| Tuvix | 1.28 orders of magnitude :P | 01:33 |
| Tuvix | (not that people usually express things quite like that :P ) | 01:33 |
| LjL | oh yikes | 01:33 |
| de-facto | right now Germany is performing quite poorly imho | 01:34 |
| LjL | Tuvix, de-facto is not people | 01:34 |
| LjL | :P | 01:34 |
| de-facto | :P | 01:34 |
| Tuvix | To be fair, none of us are. Spending time here I forget that many people don't even bother to look up basic facts like influenza vs. COVID deaths before trying to talk about it (or whatever else) in a context that they think demonstrates how right they are. | 01:35 |
| Tuvix | I don't know the attribution, but, "We don't use science to prove we are right; we use science to become right." | 01:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: Monkey study casts doubt on need for an omicron-specific booster → https://arstechnica.com/ | 02:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +9717 cases, +83 deaths since 8 hours ago | 02:10 |
| LjL | "One lion developed pneumonia while the other cases had mild infection. Both the puma and lions remained positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA for up to 7 weeks." https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35062324/ | 02:18 |
| LjL | sounds like PCR stays positive for quite a long time not just in humans | 02:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from ##covid-19 Zotero group: Moderna’s omicron booster was only as good as current vaccine in monkey study: Type Web Page Author Beth Mole URL https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/02/monkey-study-casts-doubt-on-need-for-an-omicron-specific-booster/ Date 2/8/2022 Accessed 2022-02-08 01:22:04 Language en-us [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/RA7BTIMK | 02:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The accompanying editorial reviews these 2 new reports and the previous studies about #LongCovid in teens and is reassuring thelancet.com/journals/lanch… @erika_molteni @MAbsoud @KingsCollegeLon pic.twitter.com/FJIOVbDBjI → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1490860416976953344 | 02:41 |
| LjL | well the Topol thing above is also confusing https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(22)00035-9/fulltext | 02:44 |
| LjL | it basically says everyone developed symptoms - controls or cases | 02:44 |
| LjL | i understand there is placebo (and nocebo) effect | 02:44 |
| LjL | but this seems a bit odd | 02:44 |
| LjL | is it supposedly "just" because of the general stress from remote schooling and other things? | 02:45 |
| LjL | "At 3 months, a symptom cluster was evident in both groups, which included tiredness, headache, dyspnoea, and dizziness. This cluster was more common in cases than controls, and in girls, older children, and those with poorer baseline physical and mental health, irrespective of test status." | 02:45 |
| LjL | maybe "broadband" questionnaires are just kinda useless? :P | 02:45 |
| LjL | and it confirms what seemed weird about the Danish study: "The cases had lower symptom scores than controls, and higher quality of life across multiple domains (physical, emotional, social, and school functioning)." | 02:46 |
| LjL | how is this even possible? | 02:46 |
| LjL | but then, "These data contrast with other studies, including our own". the plot thickens | 02:47 |
| LjL | "Few comprehensive paediatric population studies have assessed prevalence of headache, fatigue, and other symptoms before the COVID-19 pandemic; nonetheless, the symptom increase observed in test-negative children in CLoCK suggests an impact of the pandemic on all children, irrespective of infection." | 02:48 |
| LjL | "Management should consider differential or additional diagnoses and the mind–body interaction (highlighted by CLoCK), and integration of mental health professionals in multidisciplinary teams should be seen as a parallel and equally valid process towards the main aim: recovery of wellbeing in the broadest sense" ← ryouma wouldn't like this part i think ;( | 02:50 |
| de-facto | well what kind of symptoms? e.g. shortness of breath is more correlated with positive test than e.g. headache or fatigue | 03:23 |
| LjL | de-facto, the Danish study found shortness of breath as a definite symptom whose CI didn't go through 1 | 03:52 |
| LjL | but it found some other things like that too | 03:52 |
| LjL | anyway the above is a discussion of multiple studies | 03:52 |
| de-facto | yeah i think i read something like that in the earlier study (was it UK?) | 03:53 |
| LjL | i'm not sure. also on children? | 03:57 |
| LjL | i only say the Danish one and this discussion of it+others today | 03:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Solomon Is.: +137 cases, +4 deaths since a day ago — United Kingdom: +63564 cases, +46 deaths since 18 hours ago — Netherlands: +77701 cases, +6 deaths since 23 hours ago — France: +43540 cases since 5 hours ago | 04:03 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(22)00022-0/fulltext | 04:23 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: The Lancet | The best science for better lives | 04:23 |
| de-facto | "At 3 months after testing, the most common symptoms among the test-positive group were tiredness (1196 [39·0%]), headache (710 [23·2%]), and shortness of breath (717 [23·4%]), and among the test-negative group were tiredness (911 [24·4%]), headache (530 [14·2%]), and other (unspecified; 590 [15·8%])." | 04:24 |
| de-facto | so that shortness of breath either may be lung or heart related? not sure | 04:24 |
| de-facto | i wonder, if it somehow could be excluded that it got negative impact, if treating that with a blast of ibuprofen may help (killing off ongoing inflammatory issues), yet i dont have medical background, hence i dont know if something like that really makes sense | 04:26 |
| de-facto | maybe it also could be counter-productive? idk, wonder what a MD would say about that | 04:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Kristian G. Andersen (@K_G_Andersen): Small update to our SEARCH wastewater surveillance - you can now display SARS-CoV-2 variants by e.g., absolute number of (estimated) cases, instead of just relative numbers.This way you can see if absolute numbers of variant-specific cases are [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1490891471205011456 | 04:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): How well do the mRNA and J&J original vaccines stand up to Omicron? And why? A macaque model answers the questions--Very well--Best when there's both high level of neutralizing antibodies (from booster) and CD8+ T cellsbiorxiv.org/content/10.110… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1490905088294264832 | 05:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +48795 cases, +110 deaths since 3 days ago — India: +67597 cases, +1346534 tests (0.4% positive) since 23 hours ago — France: +46388 cases since 7 hours ago — Netherlands: +110 cases, +3 deaths since 12 hours ago | 06:08 |
| oerheks | weird numbers Brainstorm .. monday 7 februari 77.648 positive tests | 06:11 |
| Tuvix | Some of the data is using averages which won't be whole numbers, although in addition the updates were delayed for quite a while as well due to some mysterious data-source issue. | 06:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Cognitive deficits as a result of long-COVID can be significantly improved within 3 – 4 days following alternating non-invasive brain stimulation using microcurrents. This study is important because about 20-30% of recovered COVID-19 patients [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/snbsgu/cognitive_deficits_as_a_result_of_longcovid_can/ | 06:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Lima, Peru: +224419 cases, +1031 deaths since 6 days ago — Arequipa, Peru: +46575 cases, +129 deaths since 6 days ago — Piura, Peru: +32788 cases, +207 deaths since 6 days ago — La Libertad, Peru: +25111 cases, +169 deaths since 6 days ago | 07:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Long Covid: Brain fog causes work absence but swimming helps → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-60287344 | 07:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +177980 cases since 18 hours ago | 08:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from MedicineNet: (news): Drills Key to Making Dental Appointments COVID-Safe → http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp | 08:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 08, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/sneu96/daily_discussion_thread_february_08_2022/ | 09:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Caledonia: +2353 cases since 23 hours ago | 09:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): Our lab was so excited to also produce 100s of HIV and TB genomes in the last few days in addition to COVID! Secret? Women scientists pic.twitter.com/qEKMP0lY7B → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1490966209680252928 | 09:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +48741 cases since 11 hours ago | 09:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: ‘Good, not great’: Some long Covid patients see their symptoms improve, but full recovery is elusive: “I've finally got the excitement back”: Some long Covid patients, aided by specialized clinics, are seeing their symptoms get better as they strive [... want %more?] → https://www.statnews.com/2022/02/08/long-covid-patients-clinics-symptoms-improve-recovery-elusive/ | 10:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: Internal Investigation Confirms Border Patrol Failures Leading Up to a 16-Year-Old’s Death on the Floor of His Cell: by Robert Moore , El Paso Matters ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that [... want %more?] → https://www.propublica.org/article/internal-investigation-confirms-border-patrol-failures-leading-up-to-a-16-year-olds-death-on-the-floor-of-his-cell#1254152 | 11:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Health: For burned-out health workers, exhaustion from Covid-19 surges mixes with a sense of betrayal → https://www.statnews.com/2022/02/08/health-worker-burnout-nurses-covid19/ | 11:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Self-testing kit for sexually transmitted infections increases diagnoses while reducing costs: The studyWilson JD, Wallace HE, Loftus-Keeling M, et al. Swab-yourself trial with economic monitoring and testing for infections collectively (SYSTEMATIC): Part 2. A diagnostic accuracy, and... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o242.short | 11:46 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kiribati: +207 cases since 22 hours ago | 12:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): I mean, you have to admire their confidence to still be sending this now.The Zoe team’s done some great work and it was a helpful indicator earlier in the pandemic. But if this week’s @ONS infection survey continues to show a different trend, surely [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1491003443355389952 | 12:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Long covid: “Holistic” approach is best, given range of symptoms, say researchers: New research on long covid in adults and children supports the multidisciplinary approach to clinical care that is being provided at long covid clinics in England, experts have said.“Long covid seems... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o336.short | 12:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): NHP study, the advantage is time and more mechanism, Vaccine Protection Against the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in MacaquesBest protection (J&J or RNA) against omicron is with boosted neutralizing antibodies and CD8+ T cellsbiorxiv.org/content/10.110… [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1491010562326933504 | 12:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from Pfizer: Pfizer Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2021 Results: Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 02/08/2022 - 06:45 Tuesday, February 08, 2022 - 06:45am Full-Year 2021 Revenues of $81.3 Billion, Reflecting 92% Operational Growth; Excluding [... want %more?] → https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2021-results | 12:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Partha Kar: We need leaders who represent the NHS workforce: “If you’re not at the table, you’re probably on the menu.” An apt saying, when looking at the health service and its leadership. If there’s been any silver lining at all to the pandemic, it’s brought... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o293.short | 13:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): As John explains, the official “deaths within 28 days” metric was a pretty accurate indicator before Omicron, aligning closely with @ONS death certificate data.That is no longer that case, and the dashboard numbers are increasingly over-estimating [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1491026718521700356 | 13:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): As John explains, the official “deaths within 28 days” metric was a pretty accurate indicator before Omicron, aligning closely with @ONS death certificate data.That is no longer that case, and the dashboard numbers are increasingly over-estimating [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1491026718521700356 | 13:40 |
| pwr22 | I really do hope the UK deaths are now an overestimate! Less deaths is good!!! | 13:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Timor-Leste: +247 cases, +1135 tests (21.8% positive) since a day ago | 14:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +180032 cases since 23 hours ago | 14:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity): Omg Our Prime and Spike vaccine story is in the @RollingStone By @daxe with comments from @BenIsraelow rollingstone.com/culture/cultur… → https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1491051458024058880 | 15:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Pfizer sales forecasts for Covid shot and pill fall short; letter-writing campaigns target CMS over Alzheimer’s drug → https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2022/02/08/covid19-vaccine-pfizer-astrazeneca-opioids-biogen-alzheimers-medicare/ | 15:37 |
| Tuvix | A US death comparison of the lowest-point pre-Delta to the Delta peak VS the lowest-point pre-Omicron to the current Omicron peak: | 15:51 |
| Tuvix | pre-Delta-to-its-peak: (Jul-08 - Sept-19) 2.20. pre-Omicron-to-its-peak: (Nov-27 - Feb-06) 3.61. Values are 7-day death per 100k pop. | 15:51 |
| Tuvix | It doesn't help that the US _started_ the absolute lowest point at 1.60 (and that was likely a small artifact around the holiday there) while the lowest pre-Delta value was 0.45 | 15:52 |
| Tuvix | 1.60 pre-Omicron, of course, vs. 0.45 last summer before Delta | 15:52 |
| dewo86[m] | what do you about artemisia annua? | 15:54 |
| dewo86[m] | * do you think about artemisia | 15:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Booster protection vs Omicron infection (BA.1) increased from 33% (2-shot vaccine) to 68%, and higher with prior Covid (76%) in a large report from the Netherlandsmedrxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/Hw21mfcPFL → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1491060618199113733 | 15:56 |
| Tuvix | As what, a malaria treatment, or for COVID? There's no evidence it does anything useful for COVID, making it no different than any of the other nonsense treatments being advertised. https://www.who.int/publications-detail-redirect/WHO-CDS-GMP-2019.14 | 16:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +16526 cases, +25 deaths, +71918 tests (23.0% positive) since 23 hours ago | 16:01 |
| Tuvix | FAQ here has a shorter summary, 2nd from the bottom item: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-malaria-and-covid-19 | 16:02 |
| Tuvix | "However, available in vitro data suggests that purified artemisinin compounds or A. annua plant product or extracts do not have an appreciable effect against COVID-19 at concentrations that could be safely achieved in humans. As such, current evidence does not support the use of artemisinins or A. annua products or extracts as an antiviral for COVID-19." | 16:02 |
| Tuvix | So, it's just another quack theory without any basis in science. Worse, its use seems to have a possible side-effect of malaria resistance, so not only does this not to anything useful for SARS-CoV-2, but it could make the population more at-risk for other disease. | 16:04 |
| Tuvix | Sounds like a horrible idea to me. | 16:04 |
| Tuvix | (making malaria more resistant that is, not a resistance _to_ malaria.) | 16:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): There is zero evidence that vaccines cause infertility in men (or women) but a new report about Covid and live virus found in testicles: "SARS-CoV-2 infects, replicates, elevates angiotensin II and activates immune cells in human [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1491063815727108097 | 16:05 |
| bn_mobile | Is viz.covid19forecasthub.org working for anyone else? | 16:06 |
| LjL-Matrix | Loads for me | 16:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A US prospective assessment of mRNA vaccine effectiveness vs Omicron hospitalization: 2 shots was 65% and increased to 86% with a booster. Benefit for outcomes was similar for age 18-64 as 65+medrxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/8AM1ju4WCO → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1491066776343674881 | 16:15 |
| bn_mobile | LjL-Matrix: so you see graphs rendered? | 16:17 |
| LjL | yes | 16:18 |
| bn_mobile | LjL-Matrix: I can’t get any of the models to load :/ | 16:18 |
| pwr22 | I don't see any graphs on that page | 16:18 |
| bn_mobile | LjL-Matrix: what browser? | 16:18 |
| pwr22 | I'm using Firefox | 16:18 |
| bn_mobile | LjL-Matrix: did you have to click on anything to get it to render? If so, what options? | 16:22 |
| bn_mobile | Ok, got it to work in FF v75, couldn’t get it to work in Chrome v98, weird | 16:23 |
| bn_mobile | weird, now it suddenly works in Chrome, lol | 16:27 |
| bn_mobile | Hmm, I wish they’d show what they mean by “truth data” | 16:29 |
| bn_mobile | It’s interesting seeing how the individual models diverge significantly. Looks like DDS-NBDS model is consistently the pessimist forecasting doom & gloom | 16:37 |
| LjL-Matrix | bn_mobile: I can't test it all now, I'm going somewhere. But it showed a graph both on Android and Firefox | 16:40 |
| bn_mobile | Why do hospitalizations have a square-wave/sawtooth sub-pattern? | 16:41 |
| bn_mobile | LjL-Matrix: no worries, I got it working now, just exploring the data 👍 | 16:41 |
| Tuvix | Typically that's caused by a lack of consistent reporting so days where there were undercounts or no-counts get "caught up" and show a relative spike; smoothing over a larger period of time usually cleans that kind of artifacting up. | 16:41 |
| Tuvix | Sometimes weekends or holidays will show similar patterns as well, which is why you'll often see smoothing done over 7-day multiples. | 16:42 |
| bn_mobile | Tuvix: I think you’re right, all the weekends seem to be the minimas | 16:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Tracking the Omicron wave in England, just published @ScienceMagazine And the impact of vaccination for teens science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… pic.twitter.com/2zawy7NsWD → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1491073164319014914 | 16:44 |
| bn_mobile | Heh, not surprisingly “MIT-Cassandra” model seems to be another (aptly named) pessimist | 16:46 |
| bn_mobile | I wonder if these models factor in widely adopted public holiday induced spikes | 16:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): We keep getting closer to a pancoronavirus, variant-proof vaccine. Yet another step today, from my colleagues @ScrippsResearch science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… @ScienceMagazine → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1491075830273167362 | 16:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Convalescent Plasma May Safely Treat Children at High Risk of Severe COVID-19: Convalescent plasma safely raised antibody levels in children at high risk of severe or fatal COVID-19, successfully neutralizing the virus but unlikely to [... want %more?] → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/convalescent-plasma-may-safely-treat-children-at-high-risk-of-severe-covid-19 | 17:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +186373 cases, +239 deaths since 23 hours ago — Canada: +14815 cases, +158 deaths since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +64712 cases since 23 hours ago | 17:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Just a reminder that last Tuesday’s UK reported death figure was artificially low and corrected the following day. So don’t be surprised or alarmed if you see headlines like “deaths up 43% in a week” - they are still falling [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1491081117604392960 | 17:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): The SINCERE Intervention to Address COVID-19 Health Disparities → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05228886 | 17:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Immunization of 7 Different Vaccines Against SARS-COV-2 Across 4 Countries. → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05228912 | 17:33 |
| -Bridgestorm- ⭕ 地震? Землетрясение? Earthquake? M6+ estimated tremor, provisionally occurred 6 minutes ago (16:36:23 UTC), duing a gibbous moon night, Northwest Of Ryukyu Islands (27.04, 126.06) ± 5 km, ↓10 km likely felt 280 km away (in 那覇市, 浦添市, 沖縄市, うるま市, 宜野湾市, 豊見城市…) by 1.0 million people with maximum intensity Shindo 3 (www.kmoni.bosai.go.jp) | 17:43 | |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Comparison of Quality of Life After Discharge of the Mild and Moderate COVID-19 Patients With or Without Herbal Medicine → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05228873 | 17:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Safety and Immunogencity Study of SARS-CoV-2 Protein Subunit Recombinant Vaccine Adjuvanted With Alum+CpG 1018 → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05228613 | 17:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Prevalence of Long COVID in the Canary Islands → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05228691 | 18:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +48753 cases since 19 hours ago | 18:06 |
| LjL-Matrix | Masks will again cease being mandatory outdoors on Feb 11. I think by now people are either wearing them or not wearing them depending on their own whims regardless of the ever changing mandates | 18:31 |
| pwr22 | LjL: is that in Italy? | 18:31 |
| Alex1138[m] | masking outdoors seems silly | 18:31 |
| pwr22 | Unless you have a very good mask, I largely agree | 18:32 |
| pwr22 | Or you are extremely crammed into a crowd | 18:32 |
| LjL-Matrix | Tuvix: on this point, something I wanted to mention... This reminds me of what you said that you can't mandate what people won't do. In this case it seems true, people do whatever they'd be doing anything. But on the flip side I bet there were a lot of people in the early months who'd have worn masks but felt awkward about it, unless "everyone else did it too". In cases like that it can be useful to mandate things | 18:33 |
| LjL-Matrix | pwr22: yes | 18:33 |
| LjL-Matrix | Italy has a long history of outdoors masking, and personally with all the quibbling on masks, indoors, outdoors, surgical, nonsurgical, and handwashing, or not because fomites aren't really a problem, hence also hand sanitizer or not... It's all a lot of stuff where in my opinion we still have very little definite evidence, and there are often formed consensuses that are quite temporary and easily changed - sometimes, since some other times | 18:36 |
| LjL-Matrix | you also have the kind of consensus that sticks around until well after evidence showed otherwise... And so you also end up with different countries sticking to different things depending on what they did before | 18:36 |
| LjL-Matrix | Italy enforced outdoor masking early, because we were all new to it and panicky; other countries came into the game when the consensus had already roughly become that they weren't important outdoors | 18:37 |
| LjL-Matrix | So when cases grow again Italy is sticking to what we did the first time around, and other countries to what they did | 18:38 |
| LjL-Matrix | Personally I'm tired of saying this is useful this is useless when it really seems to be easier to run trials on artificially created mRNA surrounded by nanoparticles, than on how well a mask works indoors, outdoors, what type, worn how well, etc | 18:39 |
| LjL-Matrix | I feel safer with a mask on when I'm outside but quite surrounded by people (not talking about stadiums or anything, just normal streets when they are somewhat crowded), it may have been early imprinting, but I'll keep doing it anyway if it makes me fret less | 18:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Medical regulators should ensure that health workers are vaccinated, says Javid: England’s health secretary has urged medical regulators to send a “clear message” to healthcare workers that they should be vaccinated against covid-19, despite the government dropping its legal... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o346.short | 18:41 |
| xx | I'll never take the mask off again outside | 18:42 |
| LjL-Matrix | I'm not wearing an Aura and I can feel some of the air leaving from the top of my nose so I know that if I wanted 100% safety even from the unlikely chance of outdoor infection, this would not provide it (but I suspect neither would any mask because 95% or even 99% isn't 100% and these numbers don't even directly translate to probabilities), but everyone puts what they can deal with and what makes them feel safer at a different threshold and | 18:46 |
| LjL-Matrix | I think to some extent we should try to tolerate this a bit more and understand that just because we put it at X doesn't mean the whole word is dead wrong for doing X-1 or X+1 (maybe X-100 is another matter, like rejecting vaccines) | 18:46 |
| xx | what about someone who accepts vaccines but only because they hope the antivaxx are right and will make people sterile? :) | 18:49 |
| Timvde | LjL-Matrix: I feel like masking is still pretty good here, but as soon as the mandates are dropped, people will stop doing it | 18:50 |
| xx | that's gotta be someone who'll get disliked by both anti-vaxx and pro-vaxx groups | 18:50 |
| Timvde | It is really enforced in most public spaces | 18:51 |
| Arsanerit | xx: I've been wondering who would attack me first if I stood between two demonstrations with a sign promoting that. | 18:51 |
| Arsanerit | "Please give us a secretly sterilising vaccine!" | 18:51 |
| xx | well, can't make everyone happy, but we sure can annoy everyone :) | 18:51 |
| xx | sounds like a life motto | 18:52 |
| Arsanerit | The only way to unite the people is to unite them against you. | 18:52 |
| xx | hmm, a very good observation | 18:53 |
| Arsanerit | Can we sterilise people by adding stuff that has no taste or odour to the tap water? | 18:54 |
| LjL-Matrix | xx: Yes that's gonna be me when I both yell at anti-vax like sdfgsdfg who then proceed to threaten me / the channel, but also yell at people not wanting to discuss vaccine issues in public because ohno someone may be suggestible and not get vaccinated | 18:54 |
| pwr22 | xx: verum ex vanitati | 18:54 |
| xx | pwr22: I was wondering if there was a latin phrase for this, because it sounds like a roman concept in warfare | 18:55 |
| pwr22 | I just put some crap into google translate 😛 | 18:55 |
| LjL-Matrix | Pretty sure that should be vanitate | 18:55 |
| xx | probably what the romans did too - they just asked some roman poet | 18:55 |
| pwr22 | unitas ab odio might be more apt | 18:56 |
| pwr22 | "Unity from hatred" | 18:56 |
| pwr22 | LjL: take it up with google translate 😉 | 18:56 |
| LjL-Matrix | Odi et amo | 18:56 |
| pwr22 | Hmmm, is odio the root of odium? | 18:56 |
| LjL-Matrix | Quare id faciam fortasse requiris | 18:57 |
| LjL-Matrix | Nescio see fieri sentio er excrucior | 18:57 |
| * pwr22 figures LjL will know this off the top of his head | 18:57 | |
| LjL-Matrix | pwr22: odi- would be the root I guess | 18:57 |
| xx | sounds italian | 18:58 |
| LjL-Matrix | We hate a lot | 18:58 |
| xx | translate this into latin/italian: "They say one person can't change anything, until they eat a bat soup" | 19:00 |
| xx | I might have it written into stone and buried | 19:00 |
| pwr22 | 'death of the bat' | 19:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +102429 cases, +415 deaths, +999095 tests (10.3% positive) since a day ago | 19:09 |
| LjL-Matrix | After being startled by like four different things (mostly people) in a row, I'd like to say other things in Italian | 19:09 |
| LjL-Matrix | Walking is relaxing, they say | 19:09 |
| LjL-Matrix | 415 deaths and 102429 cases are relaxing (restrictions), they say | 19:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Wistar Institute Produces HIV-Fighting Tier-2 Antibodies in Mice: For the first time, investigators from the Wistar Institute created a DNA-based vaccine that successfully produced tier-2 antibodies capable of neutralizing HIV in mice. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/wistar-institute-produces-hiv-fighting-tier-2-antibodies-in-mice | 19:09 |
| pwr22 | LjL: you need one of these.... | 19:10 |
| * pwr22 uploaded an image: (1356KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/shortestpath.dev/fkJPoiHAQcXCEpwJVGpEkmId/image.png > | 19:10 | |
| xx | how... how did those mice get HIV? | 19:12 |
| LjL-Matrix | pwr22: three idiots literally startled me on purpose by creeping on me while I was waiting at a red light and then yelling and then laughing away | 19:12 |
| LjL-Matrix | So I'm not sure that would work | 19:12 |
| pwr22 | Maybe they would read the sign and then choose to let you be? | 19:13 |
| pwr22 | Shitty that happened though | 19:13 |
| LjL-Matrix | Sure | 19:13 |
| xx | wouldn't happen in an open-carry state | 19:13 |
| LjL-Matrix | Maybe I should have spikes instead | 19:13 |
| pwr22 | Were they kids or something? You'd hope grown ups would rather not cause people to jump into a road? | 19:13 |
| LjL-Matrix | pwr22: young but not kids | 19:14 |
| pwr22 | xx: I'm not an expert in US law but I'm pretty sure that trying to scare you wouldn't be a good defence against shooting some kids? | 19:14 |
| pwr22 | Proportionate response and all that | 19:14 |
| LjL-Matrix | I think her point is they'd see you carrying the gun and just not do it | 19:15 |
| LjL-Matrix | Hence specifically open carry | 19:15 |
| xx | pwr22: the kids might think twice before trying to scare someone who has a gun on them | 19:15 |
| pwr22 | Lol, somehow I don't think the kids in the UK would care but I suppose anything is possible | 19:15 |
| LjL-Matrix | I think in such a place she'd be right but also I'd end up being scared of much scarier things | 19:15 |
| LjL-Matrix | Like being shot | 19:15 |
| xx | you now, the whole argument about it being a deterrent | 19:15 |
| xx | like nukes | 19:15 |
| pwr22 | I'm anti guns because humans can't be trusted imo | 19:16 |
| pwr22 | because we're humans | 19:16 |
| xx | I'm pro guns because human's can't be trusted imo | 19:16 |
| LjL-Matrix | We see how well it works, gun violence at a world minimum places where everyone just carrier guns | 19:16 |
| xx | switzerland and finland? | 19:16 |
| pwr22 | As far as I'm aware the UK has less violent crime than the US and we don't have guns | 19:17 |
| xx | pwr22: UK has way more stab crime per capita | 19:17 |
| xx | and because knives are seen as "less lethal" it makes it more likely people will use them | 19:17 |
| pwr22 | Lol, that was a quote made by the glorious floppy haired one on bad data | 19:17 |
| xx | I've had a knife pulled on me in the london tube, ended up giving away my phone, and the police just shrugged | 19:18 |
| pwr22 | We have knife control here but it is certainly possible for people to easily acquire access to them more easily | 19:18 |
| pwr22 | We actually have a surprising amount of legal gun licenses here considering our stance on them | 19:18 |
| LjL-Matrix | xx: Switzerland you mean the country where aside from hunting, "Permits for concealed carrying in public are issued sparingly.[note 2][6]" (and never mind open carrying which was kind of your point)? | 19:19 |
| pwr22 | And more crime than you'd want in a no-gun state | 19:19 |
| xx | LjL-Matrix: I was referring to your statement about guns in general, not necessarily open/conceal carry | 19:19 |
| xx | it's rare to see open-carry short guns in europe | 19:19 |
| pwr22 | xx: I've never had a knife pulled on me on the tube | 19:19 |
| xx | long guns are a more common sight though | 19:19 |
| pwr22 | I can do bad stats and anecdotes too 😉 | 19:19 |
| LjL-Matrix | xx: "just carries guns" was specifically a follow up to what you said, please | 19:20 |
| pwr22 | As a UK person going into europe it's kind of jarring how many law enforcement are just standing around with guns | 19:20 |
| pwr22 | The train station round the corner from me has occasionally had armed police with mp5s when terrorist alerts have been out and it's quite jarring | 19:21 |
| pwr22 | People in the UK would actually do what you suggest xx and be deterred but I'm not convinced we would if we'd been around them a lot and knew that people can't use them on you legally if you don't threaten their person | 19:22 |
| LjL-Matrix | pwr22: ever been to a train station in Italy? In various places, at least Lombardy, the kind League government back then allowed the army to patrol stations due to antiterrorism reasons mainly, and so it has become common to just see a pair of 20 year or so old standing there with *machine guns* dangling from their necks | 19:22 |
| pwr22 | When we went to France on a school trip on a ferry, a french border guard came on the coach with a gun and the class just started screaming / crying and panicking | 19:23 |
| xx | guess I'm taking it from my own point of view, where I'd definitely don't do anything stupid to anyone who carries a gun, even if I knew they legally can't do anything | 19:23 |
| LjL-Matrix | (which, clearly, would entirely stop a bomb) | 19:23 |
| xx | because they might have just had a bad day and not care about legality | 19:23 |
| pwr22 | The teacher had to shout at the french guy (who refused to speak english but probably could) to get off the bus before an accident happened | 19:23 |
| pwr22 | You'd think a border guard at a ferry port would know better | 19:23 |
| pwr22 | That teacher used to be a member of the IRA and was an angry Irish woman 😛 | 19:23 |
| LjL-Matrix | xx: Which is ironically also one of the reasons many people including me think it shouldn't be allowed | 19:24 |
| xx | ever been to romania? The underground trains have armed police inside them at all times. | 19:24 |
| xx | was fun to see | 19:24 |
| pwr22 | LjL-Matrix: I've actually never been to Italy yet | 19:24 |
| xx | I asked a friend whether they have a lot of crime in those trains, and she said that "No, we don't, because we have armed cops in those trains" | 19:24 |
| pwr22 | xx: I definitely don't do anything stupid to anyone guns or not 😛 | 19:25 |
| xx | pwr22: well yeah, that's the smart way of going about life | 19:26 |
| xx | humans can beat you to death anyway, no weapons necessary | 19:26 |
| pwr22 | I call it the respectful way of going about life 😀 | 19:26 |
| xx | I envy testosterone, it's not fair. Wish my doctors would prescribe it to me (they do it just fine for all men) but they see it as unnatural. | 19:27 |
| pwr22 | I am pro people being able to legally have non-lethal deterrents such as pepper spray though | 19:27 |
| pwr22 | That is illegal in the UK | 19:27 |
| xx | everything is illegal in UK, even those telescopic batons | 19:27 |
| LjL-Matrix | xx: "Armed police" is common here everywhere, although they don't specifically have them on each train though sometimes you'd be led to think that's not a bad idea given some of the things that happen. But on me, military people in mimetic suit (lots of jungle to hide into in Milan) with large machine guns pointing around, as opposed to just a cop having the usual gun sleeve, makes a totally different effect. But it looks like if you're | 19:27 |
| LjL-Matrix | pwr22 in the UK where that's also uncommon, it's probably similar. | 19:27 |
| pwr22 | There have been cases where someone calls the police after they're attacked and fended off the attacker with it then ends up arrested for having pepper spray | 19:27 |
| xx | LjL-Matrix: in UK, they wear the same uniform, just some have the mp5s and others don't | 19:28 |
| xx | guess I've never seen a bobby with an mp5 though | 19:28 |
| pwr22 | xx: I don't think I'd get it if I didn't go to a doctor and get round to have unusually low levels over here? | 19:28 |
| LjL-Matrix | xx: How many armed cops do they have? 'Cause our underground trains have six carriages and a pair of cops wouldn't be enough. We don't have nearly enough cops over the ground... | 19:29 |
| xx | pwr22: I've been to a couple countries and most doctors are fine prescribing it to any man that asks. | 19:29 |
| pwr22 | xx: They tend to have a lot more armour on too | 19:29 |
| xx | LjL-Matrix: I've seen very few in london, never seen any outside london | 19:29 |
| xx | pwr22: do they? The ones that walk around the embassies didn't seem to wear any special armor | 19:29 |
| xx | I did notice though that some didn't have the mags in. Don't know if that was policy. | 19:30 |
| pwr22 | xx: A lot of normal police don't have much in the way of real armour on so just having a bullet proof vest is "a lot more armour" 😛 | 19:31 |
| xx | stab proof vest would be more useful for them | 19:31 |
| pwr22 | Well a heavy duty "stop a bullet" vest I mean | 19:31 |
| xx | they don't wear ceramics | 19:31 |
| pwr22 | The ones I saw in the station here certainly looked to have decent sized plates in them | 19:32 |
| pwr22 | Dunno about the ones on guard outside embassies or like downing street or whatever | 19:32 |
| xx | assume that their opponent would only have a gun that they took off another cop, and there's no way anything less than ceramic plates would stop a discharge from an mp5 | 19:32 |
| pwr22 | Yeah they looked like they would stop "normal" weapons fire | 19:33 |
| pwr22 | They weren't in any sort of juggernaut level suits though 😛 | 19:33 |
| pwr22 | But in the UK that's already highly unusual | 19:33 |
| pwr22 | We have a lot more transport police about and on trains now than I've seen before. Not sure if it's been motivated by post lockdown rise in crime but they are unarmed and just with the standard gear | 19:34 |
| pwr22 | They may have pepper spray | 19:34 |
| xx | well if anyone was stupid enough to shoot a .22 sports gun at a cop, then even a thick uniform would prevent lethal wounds | 19:34 |
| xx | still sucks if they hit head or neck or eyes or whatever else | 19:35 |
| xx | getting shot sucks if you survive it, no matter what you get shot with | 19:35 |
| pwr22 | In the UK, even with licenses, you can't get anything that would go through a standard duty armoured vest so it's less likely to be an issue | 19:35 |
| pwr22 | No random people with large calibre rifles or any sort of armour piercing rounds even for small arms | 19:36 |
| xx | well it's not gonna be random people, it'll be the foxhunters or whatever | 19:36 |
| pwr22 | Usually it seems to be shotguns when there is crime tbh | 19:36 |
| xx | shotguns are a different category, yeah | 19:36 |
| pwr22 | That's anecdotal from my experience of the news | 19:37 |
| xx | anyway people seem to behave better when there's armed cops visibly nearby in Europe. Doesn't seem to be the case in USA for some weird reason | 19:37 |
| pwr22 | There has been a movement for a while to restrict all access to actual rifles since we don't like their uses over here anymore and hunting can be achieved with lower power weapons anyway | 19:37 |
| xx | (or hunting can be stopped entirely...) | 19:38 |
| pwr22 | Farmers usually get a shotgun license to deal with pests | 19:38 |
| LjL-Matrix | xx: have you considered that the weird reason might be the normalization of guns mindset itself | 19:38 |
| pwr22 | I've been chased by a farmer that looked like he had a shotgun when I was 16/17 lol | 19:38 |
| xx | LjL-Matrix: I've considered that americans are just weird :) | 19:38 |
| pwr22 | Lol, that might be one of the ways they are weird | 19:38 |
| pwr22 | They are exposed to guns as "normal" | 19:39 |
| xx | guns are normal in majority of the world | 19:39 |
| xx | europe is the exception | 19:39 |
| xx | or at least some countries in europe are the exception | 19:39 |
| pwr22 | ...., in a lot of those other places of the world, law and order is also the exception | 19:39 |
| pwr22 | 😛 | 19:39 |
| xx | I wouldn't say it to that extent | 19:40 |
| xx | there might be less law and order in some places I've been to, but not as a general country-wide rule under a normal situation | 19:40 |
| pwr22 | Well then you'll have to give a citation that the majority of the world share's the US view that everyperson and their dog should be wandering around with guns in their bags to ensure that everyone is safe 🤔 | 19:40 |
| xx | it's not about whether they *should* do that, it just an observation that they do do that | 19:41 |
| xx | the place with the highest frequency of seeing a gun that I've been to was israel | 19:42 |
| xx | stuff seems to work fine there | 19:42 |
| xx | seeing guns is fully normalized there | 19:42 |
| xx | but I guess they are ahead of the world in many ways | 19:43 |
| xx | covid situation including | 19:43 |
| pwr22 | > anyway people seem to behave better when there's armed cops visibly nearby in Europe. Doesn't seem to be the case in USA for some weird reason | 19:43 |
| pwr22 | xx Yeah it's ironic that they're probably more likely to get shot by the cop in the US than in europe 😛 | 19:43 |
| pwr22 | Are guns legal for general public in Israel? | 19:44 |
| pwr22 | They are absolutely militant as fuck though, I agree | 19:44 |
| pwr22 | > but I guess they are ahead of the world in many ways | 19:45 |
| pwr22 | My view's on Israel are very much different than that but I'll keep that out of the channel lol | 19:45 |
| xx | yes, guns are legal for any adult in israel, and they have compulsory military service for both men and women | 19:48 |
| LjL | > Israel | 19:48 |
| LjL | > stuff seems to work fine there | 19:48 |
| LjL | oookaaay | 19:48 |
| xx | well, regarding gun crime and covid at least | 19:48 |
| xx | in any case, people are the problem, not guns. People are the problem, not covid. | 19:49 |
| LjL | human exceptionalism | 19:49 |
| pwr22 | xx: I don't disagree but that doesn't mean that guns don't help people be bigger problems | 19:49 |
| xx | human are exceptional at creating problems, yeah | 19:49 |
| xx | never seen a rock cause so many problems | 19:49 |
| pwr22 | That argument is always presented as black and white which is imo a bit silly | 19:49 |
| pwr22 | But then it's usually given to discount the other view so it makes sense | 19:50 |
| xx | pwr22: I don't really know, if someone wants to be a problem, they'll find a way of being a problem. | 19:50 |
| xx | like, I'm ~110lb, a teenage boy could lift me above the head and throw me on the ground, shattering all my bones and likely killing me | 19:50 |
| xx | no need for a gun, knife, or whatever weapon there | 19:51 |
| xx | for added certainty, they could kick me in the head with a steel-toe boot | 19:51 |
| xx | whereas with a gun on me I might at least have a chance if I see it coming, and with a gun visibly on me the whole situation might be avoided | 19:52 |
| pwr22 | xx: but you could learn advanced fighting techniques and negate their teenage boy strength 😉 | 19:52 |
| xx | yeah there's no way | 19:53 |
| xx | "advanced fighting techniques" are a joke, at best I could try running away, but they'll run faster than me anyway if they decide to chase | 19:53 |
| pwr22 | I also don't think I could lift 110lb of person above my head at all when I was a teenage boy | 19:53 |
| pwr22 | I dunno, I've met a bunch of women in my life who i am absolutely sure could beat me up quite thoroughly 😛 | 19:54 |
| LjL | i also have enough testosterone that i know of, and yet used to be 95lbs before i started being overly hungry | 19:54 |
| pwr22 | Granted I'm not likely to be fighting a lot of men or women | 19:54 |
| pwr22 | Or any really | 19:54 |
| xx | 95lb sounds really low for a man, must have been when you were a kid? | 19:55 |
| LjL | no, it was when i was 25 | 19:55 |
| xx | no way, really? | 19:55 |
| LjL | yes way | 19:55 |
| pwr22 | xx: Outrunning you being a given is also not always going to be true, especially over a significant distance | 19:55 |
| xx | LjL: that's gotta be around ~15 BMI assuming average height | 19:56 |
| xx | pwr22: they'll close the distance quickly, they run faster than me | 19:56 |
| pwr22 | 50% of men are shoter than average height | 19:57 |
| xx | of course making the assumption that they are not drunk, or overly obese or some other handicap | 19:57 |
| LjL | yes, but still, 15.8 says random site | 19:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): We approached BioNTech/Pfizer so many times to ask for knowledge transfer to SA as each time that we identify a variant the need for vaccine growth, their answer??? Not that interested & thanks for increasing our profit! Public health or capitalism health? [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1491122352956264448 | 19:57 |
| pwr22 | xx: they might do, and they might be more likely to than the average other female but it's not guaranteed | 19:57 |
| LjL | and yet i was fine. tiny, but not anorexic or anything | 19:57 |
| xx | I was anorexic | 19:57 |
| pwr22 | Again, I know plenty of women who could keep up or outrun me even at my fittest (which wasn't too bad) | 19:57 |
| xx | pwr22: plenty of women? That's hard to believe. | 19:58 |
| xx | it happens that a genetically gifted woman can outcompete an absolutely average man, but it is rare | 19:58 |
| xx | the two bell curves have that sort of overlap | 19:58 |
| pwr22 | Well I did encounter them whilst running or exercising so it's a skewed distribution | 19:58 |
| xx | like my best option would be to *try* to run and scream for help, which probably is the best course of action for anyone who wants to avoid any fight | 19:59 |
| xx | no amount of self-defense would work against a determined attacker that's taller, heavier and more muscular than me | 20:00 |
| pwr22 | I disagree that the situation can be reduced totally down to two simple bell curves and that it's all about innate physicality. I don't disagree that there are biological trends that run the ways you're stating though, just to be clear 🙂 | 20:01 |
| LjL | <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Stealth BA.2 omicron variant found in 67 countries will become dominant, says WHO expert → https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/snqp4j/stealth_ba2_omicron_variant_found_in_67_countries/ | 20:01 |
| xx | why do they keep calling it stealth? | 20:02 |
| xx | it used to be "stealthy" back when omicron BA.1 was out, but it's dominant now | 20:02 |
| pwr22 | Makes it sound cooler? | 20:02 |
| xx | does it? | 20:02 |
| LjL | xx, it's called "stealth" because it doesn't have SGTF | 20:02 |
| LjL | so to PCR it's like Delta again | 20:03 |
| xx | ah right, that makes more sense | 20:03 |
| de-facto | .title https://covariants.org/shared-mutations | 20:05 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From covariants.org: CoVariants | 20:05 |
| de-facto | note the missing del69, del70 and del144 | 20:07 |
| de-facto | when comparing 21k (BA.1) with 21L (BA.2) | 20:08 |
| de-facto | hence no s-gene dropout with that specific PCR primer set | 20:08 |
| LjL | the one which apparently all countries with a clue on sequencing (at least the Uk, Denmark, South Africa) use, but not Italy or many other countries | 20:09 |
| LjL | kind of an interesting correlation there | 20:09 |
| LjL | it's almost as if some countries think that determining which variants are dominant is important, and others think it's superfluous or a secondary concern at best | 20:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +213792 cases, +7 deaths since 19 hours ago — United Kingdom: +67547 cases, +316 deaths since 20 hours ago — Canada: +17689 cases, +196 deaths since 23 hours ago — Tonga: +6 cases since 2 days ago | 20:11 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Modellierung_Omikronwelle.html <-- quite interesting modeling of Omicron wave in Germany | 20:11 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.rki.de: RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - Abschätzung der Infektionswelle durch die SARS-CoV-2 VOC Omikron | 20:11 |
| LjL | %cases netherlands | 20:12 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Netherlands has had 5.3 million confirmed cases (30.2% of all people) and 21895 deaths (0.4% of cases; 1 in 797 people) as of a minute ago. 14.0 million tests were done (0.8 per capita, 37.6% positive). 13.3 million were vaccinated (76.3%). +213792 cases, +7 deaths since 19 hours ago. See https://coronadashboard.government.nl/ | 20:13 |
| xx | LjL: https://imgflip.com/i/64g73d | 20:13 |
| LjL | the NL has even more abysmal testing rates than Italy or Germany | 20:14 |
| LjL | 37.6% positive, ridiculous | 20:14 |
| LjL | that +213792 number is weird though | 20:16 |
| de-facto | right now i hear about a LOT of infections in my direct environment here, i am not sure how many end up in official stats though | 20:16 |
| LjL | on offloop, the NL's worst was 112375 and it's been going down | 20:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Nice work towards a pan beta-coronavirus vaccin. A human antibody reveals a conserved site on beta-coronavirus spike proteins and confers protection against SARS-CoV-2 infectionscience.org/doi/10.1126/sc… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1491126509150797824 | 20:16 |
| de-facto | i assume in Germany right now we have quite a lot more infections that published stats indicate | 20:16 |
| de-facto | no wonder if testing is an order of magnitude less popular than in neighbors such as Denmark etc | 20:17 |
| de-facto | really hard to tell by which factor the official stats are underestimating the real incidence, but i would not really be surprised if it was an order of magnitude or such | 20:18 |
| de-facto | does not matter though, only matters how things develop relative to direct past (e.g. increase or decrease by how much) and right now we still are increasing infections | 20:19 |
| LjL | an order of magnitude doesn't seem possible to me | 20:19 |
| LjL | you also have much better app-based contact tracing than Italy | 20:19 |
| de-facto | why not? many take quicktests and may not register officially anymore | 20:19 |
| de-facto | yeah but noone traces contacts anymore | 20:20 |
| de-facto | its a complete disaster here right now | 20:20 |
| xx | "because it's over" | 20:20 |
| xx | even ignoring the whole corona situation, I'd prefer a world where someone with a runny nose gets quarantined for at least 3 days | 20:21 |
| de-facto | i think the RKI model is accurate, but it may need multiplication of incidence by a constant (unknown) factor N | 20:21 |
| de-facto | and N > 1 for sure | 20:21 |
| xx | instead of spreading it through workplace/school/public transport | 20:21 |
| LjL | i don't understand italy as usual http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy;Germany;Netherlands;Denmark&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&leftTrim=640&legacy=no | 20:21 |
| LjL | by population our cases were lower than even germany | 20:21 |
| LjL | but the deaths are way higher | 20:21 |
| LjL | are *we* underestimating cases by an order of magnitude or two? or, being terrible at treating patients? | 20:21 |
| LjL | sure there's a delay, and in the graph you can see that delay | 20:22 |
| LjL | but i don't think the delay is big enough to justify this difference...? | 20:22 |
| de-facto | i think Omicron spreads a LOT faster than even testing can trace it | 20:22 |
| de-facto | those quicktests, they become positive after carriers infected many susceptible etc | 20:22 |
| de-facto | such things, its only my guess though, i dont have hard evidence | 20:22 |
| LjL | but still that doesn't explain why Italy is one way and Germany is another, supposing similarly bad testing | 20:23 |
| LjL | or do we still have a lot of Delta maybe? (who knows since we barely sequence, but i think the ISS said we had a prevalence of Omicron already long ago) | 20:23 |
| LjL | only Denmark is about to reach our death rate but only after a *much* bigger spike (but... they are testing a lot more, again; still, what about the netherlands? they aren't testing much at all, and yet, more cases, fewer deaths) | 20:25 |
| de-facto | hmm possible that there is a hidden Delta wave inside Omicron, we only could know by sequencing hospital admissions | 20:25 |
| de-facto | at least cross immunity between Delta and Omicron is quite bad, towards both directions | 20:25 |
| de-facto | a vaccinated would get boosted by Omicron though, and rising the vaccine protection also would be efficient against Delta (even more than Omicron) | 20:26 |
| de-facto | but vaccinated are way less likely to end in hospital (maybe by an order of magnitude) or grave (maybe even by two orders of magnitude) | 20:27 |
| de-facto | so its most likely naive that die from their first contamination | 20:28 |
| de-facto | LjL, Denmark does test much more, by a LOT | 20:30 |
| xx | or we can just wait for the year-over-year excess mortality data once 2023 comes round | 20:30 |
| xx | it's not like countries really care about stopping this thing anymore | 20:30 |
| de-facto | well it kills people, so if that does not matter anymore, i dont know what matters | 20:31 |
| xx | do you feel like it still matters to those in charge? | 20:32 |
| de-facto | and btw i did expect exactly that, i said that the high infectiousness of omicon will lead to at least as many dead per day prior to this wave happening, when everyone still was about how "mild" it is | 20:33 |
| xx | the ukraine situation might make all of this irrelevant anyway | 20:33 |
| de-facto | i even calculated how many days time advantage it would give us, of course the time for reacting was wasted | 20:33 |
| de-facto | so i have to assume if i could calculate that with a back of the envelope estimation that politicians had experts that predicted the exact trajectory of the Omicron wave to them in advance with very high accuracy | 20:35 |
| de-facto | hence they knew exactly this would happen and decided to do: exactly nothing about it | 20:36 |
| de-facto | support for containment could have been organized by beginning early enough with reducing contacts | 20:36 |
| de-facto | everyone knew how to do this, yet nothing was done to prevent this | 20:36 |
| de-facto | so all those deaths happening right now would have been easily avoidable | 20:37 |
| xx | all the deaths after a couple months in since the start could have been easily avoidable | 20:37 |
| de-facto | its always the same, people confuse their wishful thinking of the "end of the pandemic" with what actually is a realistic estimation for predicting the future based on data rather than based on emotions, basically humans are mentally not ready for dealing with something like a pandemic | 20:38 |
| xx | well, most humans | 20:39 |
| de-facto | well pathogen spread relies of behavior of majorities | 20:39 |
| LjL | <de-facto> LjL, Denmark does test much more, by a LOT ← yes i know that, i said that, twice, after also showing the Brainstorm data about it | 20:39 |
| de-facto | and obviously the environment is such, that it allows for cRaZy fast pathogen spread | 20:40 |
| LjL | i'm a bit slow but not completely stupid | 20:40 |
| xx | one can still make personal sacrifices to avoid being subjected to the harmful behavior of majorities | 20:40 |
| de-facto | LjL, oh i did not mean to say that, i just wanted to put emphasis on that again, because i looked at testing rates yesterday or such | 20:40 |
| de-facto | .title https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day?tab=chart from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing | 20:42 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From ourworldindata.org: Daily COVID-19 tests per thousand people - Our World in Data | 20:42 |
| de-facto | .title https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart | 20:44 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From ourworldindata.org: The share of COVID-19 tests that are positive - Our World in Data | 20:44 |
| de-facto | horrible, Germany is the worst in all metrics | 20:44 |
| de-facto | soon every fucking second test comes back positive | 20:44 |
| de-facto | a complete disaster | 20:44 |
| de-facto | we should have a strict, controlled lockdown right now, instead we have absolutely nothing | 20:47 |
| de-facto | completely uncontrolled gigantic explosion of infections, beyond imagination | 20:47 |
| * de-facto needs to calm down, goes out for a walk | 20:48 | |
| * xx just walks in a circle in a room | 20:50 | |
| * xx is pretty sure that's some insanity behavior when non-human animals exhibit it | 20:50 | |
| LjL | yeah maybe that doesn't usually apply to humans, but you'll be the exception | 20:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from ##covid-19 resources: ljl-covid: Re-enable r/worldnews for ##covid-news → https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/fe74172879439840eb038a568afe9861a1341daf | 20:54 |
| xx | did r/worldnews clean up their act? | 20:55 |
| LjL | no | 20:55 |
| LjL | but since not all of ##covid-19 was banned, i guess people can join ##covid-news if they're actively interested in r/worldnews | 20:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +50118 cases since 22 hours ago | 21:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): Shocking. After U.K. hoarded vaccines (i.e. buying 10x than needed), prohibiting exports of OX/AZ, now they want to send unneeded vaccine stocks to developing countries & cut aid because giving away vaccines they bought for themselves & close to expiring. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1491144708596596737 | 21:25 |
| Arsanerit | hmm, that's an impressive positivity rate | 21:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity): Nasal Spray Booster Keeps COVID-19 at Bay - an excellent piece by Meghan Rosen.So grateful to @HHMINEWS for stepping up and supporting our research efforts on COVID - on acute COVID, #longCOVID pathogenesis and vaccine strategies against [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1491146693311877120 | 21:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Long COVID and kids: more research is urgently needed → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sntyqe/long_covid_and_kids_more_research_is_urgently/ | 21:44 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +43831 cases, +361 deaths since a day ago | 22:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Theo Sanderson (@theosanderson): Awesome to see another app built using our Covince framework. If you want to build a spatiotemporal app like covid19variantsni.gis.qub.ac.uk, covid19.sanger.ac.uk or covglobe.org, check out github.com/covince/covince and feel free to raise an Issue to [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1491154395597512704 | 22:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): It doesn't have to be a shot.Here's an intranasal vaccine from today @CellCellPress that works quite well @justsaysinmice vs multiple variants of concern, ripe for testing in people secure.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/action/getShar… pic.twitter.com/ad64EnDerM → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1491162425936457732 | 22:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: COVID Increases Risk of Pregnancy Complications, Study Says: Women infected with COVID-19 have a higher chance of complications during pregnancy than women who are not infected, a study funded by the National Institutes of Health says. → https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220208/covid-increases-risk-of-pregnancy-complications-study-says | 23:02 |
| xx | ^ guess people should not be getting pregnant during the pandemic | 23:05 |
| xx | not worth the risk | 23:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +241547 cases, +691 deaths since 23 hours ago — Germany: +85974 cases since 15 hours ago — Canada: +8842 cases, +141 deaths since 20 hours ago | 23:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): If you thought #LongCovid wasn't a big issue, think againft.com/content/33444f…wkzo.com/2022/02/08/qua… pic.twitter.com/SljzLSAP0v → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1491170485211910145 | 23:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from University of Washington: Opinion: In responding to a pandemic, biology matters. But so does trust.: wapo image.jpg The covid-19 death toll in the United States has soared again, and the U.S. per capita death rate now exceeds that of other wealthy nations. [... want %more?] → https://globalhealth.washington.edu/news/2022/02/08/opinion-responding-pandemic-biology-matters-so-does-trust | 23:21 |
| Tuvix | That opinion piece by the University of Washington links to another very good NYT article which digs into some of the drivers of that. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/02/01/science/covid-deaths-united-states.html | 23:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Are There Hidden Genes in DNA/RNA Vaccines? → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/snwn5o/are_there_hidden_genes_in_dnarna_vaccines/ | 23:41 |
| Arsanerit | Every minute more is written about COVID-19 than one can read in a lifetime. | 23:42 |
| ra1nflake | A million monkeys at a million typewriters. | 23:43 |
| Tuvix | Sure, I just found the NYT summary to be spot-on with what I'd seen in the trends and data with the American failure to manage hospital, ICU, and death rates as compared to comperable nations. | 23:43 |
| Tuvix | Quoting from the article, | 23:47 |
| Tuvix | "Still, the United States’ problems started well before Omicron, scientists said. Americans began dying from Covid at higher rates than people in western European countries starting in the summer, after the United States had fallen behind on vaccinations. During the Delta surge in the fall, Americans were dying from Covid at triple the rate of Britons." | 23:47 |
| Tuvix | And that's exactly what I've been saying for a month or two now :\ | 23:47 |
| Tuvix | “We’ve normalized a very high death toll in the U.S.,” said Anne Sosin, who studies health equity at Dartmouth. “If we want to declare the end of the pandemic right now, what we’re doing is normalizing a very high rate of death.” | 23:54 |
| Tuvix | Exactly that. | 23:54 |
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