| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +48481 cases, +804 deaths since 18 hours ago — France: +143652 cases, +290 deaths since 23 hours ago — Germany: +230753 cases, +215 deaths since 23 hours ago — Tonga: +7 cases since a day ago | 00:08 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes New Monoclonal Antibody for Treatment of COVID-19 that Retains Activity Against Omicron Variant → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sqbtrw/coronavirus_covid19_update_fda_authorizes_new/ | 00:54 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.hhmi.org/news/nasal-spray-booster-keeps-covid-19-bay | 01:00 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.hhmi.org: Nasal Spray Booster Keeps COVID-19 at Bay | HHMI | 01:00 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.24.477597v1.full | 01:00 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Unadjuvanted intranasal spike vaccine booster elicits robust protective mucosal immunity against sarbecoviruses | bioRxiv | 01:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): FDA approves a second mAb that retains neutralization against Omicron. The two mAbs we have now are Omicron are sotrovimab and bebtelovimab.(Note no drug has been shown to limit Omicron disease in patients, but efficacy expected from tests on [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1492286191755935745 | 01:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Hong Kong: +1325 cases since a day ago — Netherlands: +80857 cases, +24 deaths since 23 hours ago | 01:11 |
| bluesclues | I think i have the flu | 01:14 |
| LjL | the way this curve ended up isn't very encouraging http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Greece&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&legacy=no | 01:19 |
| LjL | bluesclues, as opposed to covid? | 01:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): Correcting an orthographic error: The two mAbs we have now *for Omicron* are sotrovimab and bebtelovimab. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1492293004589092866 | 01:32 |
| LjL | we have a second mAb for Omicron? | 01:37 |
| LjL | i think i've seen some other things mentioning that (in what places?) Omicron is tapering off slowly instead of going down nearly as fast as it went up. i didn't pay that much attention at that particular time but the way it seems to have stabilized in Greece is certainly not looking great | 01:40 |
| LjL | but if Omicron only gives some 50% protection against an Omicron re-infection, i suppose we must expect a steady amount of re-infections, and not a small one | 01:40 |
| Tuvix | That's a factor too, although I'm equally (or perhaps a bit more) interested in watching the impact on other markers, like hospital/ICU/death trends, especially places like here in the US where those have demonstrated to be very fragile components of the spikes. | 01:42 |
| Tuvix | Add to that how Omicron caught the US basically with their pants down from Delta and we could be in for a similar repeat if a new varient comes along with a high immune-escape factor. | 01:43 |
| LjL | well, in Greece now the deaths are going down, but it looks like they're pretty much aligned with the latter part of before-the-curve-stopped-decreasing, so we won't know whether the deaths will continue going down yet | 01:44 |
| LjL | i think the term used was "tail" in whatever i saw before so let me grep in case it was something interesting | 01:44 |
| Tuvix | I was looking at German case/ICU/death data earlier, and a similar trend appeared there, but on a much smaller scale than the US; it seems the Delta recovery had a similar artificial floor where deaths didn't really recover from, and that moved right into Omicron just on the upswing now. | 01:44 |
| Tuvix | Oh yea, the "wide tail" or whatever that was. | 01:44 |
| Tuvix | I think that was referring to case reduction though, not deaths. The scary part for the US is that our death recovery is what seems to have longer tails, at least comparing Alpha to Delta. Now we see if the 3rd VoC breaks the mold or makes it a more common theme. | 01:45 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i'm referring to cases too, i'm just not sure we have anywhere to look at deaths yet for Omicron? | 01:46 |
| LjL | Libera/##covid-19/2022-02-09.log:[21:45:58] <Brainstorm> New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Omicron’s ‘fat tail:’ Why aren’t COVID infections falling faster? | 09FEB22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/sonftu/omicrons_fat_tail_why_arent_covid_infections/ | 01:46 |
| LjL | i think this was the one i had in mind | 01:47 |
| LjL | just saw the headline though | 01:47 |
| Tuvix | Ah, although the US is still on the downswing, so I'm not sure where we'll end up relative to say the Greece trend you noted. | 01:47 |
| LjL | oh a Tampa Bay Times article, that's gotta be scientific | 01:47 |
| Tuvix | Here's the US/German comparison I was musing about though, and note now the death rates post-Delta both seemed to "stall" a bit: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2020-10-26..latest&Metric=Vaccine+doses%2C+cases%2C+ICU+patients%2C+and+deaths&country=USA~DEU | 01:47 |
| Tuvix | The trend is a bit harder to really see from Germany since I think they're about to be getting the Omicron death uptick, and didn't really hang out as long at the same post-Delta death rate like the US did. | 01:48 |
| Tuvix | The only real dip in the US post-Delta recovery was probably a data artifact since it was exactly over the November holiday. | 01:48 |
| Tuvix | Unlike some other European countries though, Germany _did_ have a fairly notable jump in ICU cases from Delta. The UK for instance saw more of a small hump, but far more managable by contrast. | 01:50 |
| LjL | > “Theoretically, epidemic waves are pretty symmetrical,” said University of Florida epidemiologist Thomas Hladish. That means cases generally go up and then down at the same rate. | 01:51 |
| LjL | why is this true "theoretically"? i always had that impression from many places with prior waves, but i also always found it a bit of a mystery | 01:51 |
| LjL | i didn't realize it was expected | 01:51 |
| Tuvix | Too bad deaths don't follow that trend necesssarily, although the factors for that are varied and complex. | 01:52 |
| LjL | i've lost any sense of time | 01:53 |
| LjL | i didn't realize... Delta didn't actually cause too many ICUs and deaths? is that really what it didn't? | 01:53 |
| Tuvix | Depends on where you're talking about. | 01:54 |
| Tuvix | Delta certainly was quite bad here; not as bad as Alpha, but like 80-90% as bad as Omicron has been so far (perhaps worse if you count the US lackluster Delta recovery, but Omicron may or may not be different there) | 01:55 |
| LjL | Tuvix, but Delta in and of itself is deadlier than both Alpha and Omicron, isn't it? | 01:55 |
| bluesclues | yes the flu is horrible | 01:55 |
| Tuvix | Oh, per-case incidence? I believe that's correct. | 01:56 |
| Tuvix | I was thinking more on total impact, but even if more deadily per-case, countries that did a better job managing the vaccines & mitigation measures may have suffered less in ICU and fatality results. | 01:57 |
| LjL | Tuvix, yeah but it was also more transmissible than Alpha (but less than Omicron). i guess in much of Europe, restrictions+vaccines have held it somewhat at bay. if you had asked me ten minutes ago, though, i'd have told you "oh the Delta wave was terrible" just because of notionally knowing Delta was bad :\ | 01:57 |
| Tuvix | Just compare the US vs. UK for both Delta & Omicron on ICU, and to some extent deaths. | 01:57 |
| Tuvix | UK vs US, last 3 waves: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2020-10-26..latest&Metric=Vaccine+doses%2C+cases%2C+ICU+patients%2C+and+deaths&country=USA~GBR | 01:58 |
| Tuvix | UK has now largely managed to get their ICU strain, and to some extent (with Omicron cutting into their Delta gains here) managed to make the death rate far less awful. | 01:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Fr. Polynesia: +2130 cases, +1 deaths since a day ago | 02:01 |
| LjL | it would be nice if there were any tool/API that can give us "when a variant's wave started/ended" (in a given country). i guess outbreak.info might do it to an extent | 02:02 |
| LjL | if we had that programmatically, we could ask Brainstorm to do quick back-of-the-envelope comparisons among waves | 02:02 |
| Tuvix | I did that in the US with a Mark-1 eyeball, using a start/end point where the wave started to notably tick up, and when it ended the "best" most linear part of the recovery. | 02:03 |
| Tuvix | Since that was a US-specific comparison, I wanted to exclude the "long/flat" portion of both the Alpha & Delta recovery. By subtracting the end death toll from the start, I computed that Delta's core wave (not all lost from Delta total) was about 44% that of Alpha's. | 02:04 |
| Tuvix | But the lack of a decline in post-Delta deaths back to pre-Delta level is concerning. Seasonality may have been a factor, because it was October/November while deaths remained flat, and much of the US migrates indoors more during that time. | 02:05 |
| LjL | Tuvix, by using outbreak.info info we could do it based on when a given variant became dominant (above some given percentage, we'd have to see what matches your eyeball best) in sequencing, and when it stopped being dominant | 02:09 |
| Tuvix | Sure, although my comparison was specifically designed in the above case to count just the worst of the surge, and exclude changes in recovery. | 02:10 |
| Tuvix | I don't know why Delta didn't continue to recover quite like the last winter wave did. If seasonality was the main factor there, we'd expect to see Omicron deaths decline very quickly as winter begins to abate a month or so from now. If anything, I'd expect a _faster_ recover (assuming seasonality was the only factor; obviously Omicron is a bigger wild-card) | 02:11 |
| Tuvix | The peak of Omicron in the US was likely the 26th unless we have another uptick, which is almost 2 weeks later than the Alpha peak. | 02:12 |
| Tuvix | Then again, Alpha declined largely in Feb 2021, and it's still very much Winter season for us in the northern half of the US anyway. | 02:12 |
| Tuvix | (so spring may not have helped the initial recovery, only aided the more progressive decline pre-Delta) | 02:13 |
| LjL | Tuvix, it's already a pretty warm winter in a few places, including Greece | 02:13 |
| LjL | we've reached 20°C here a few days ago and just the other day we had a high of 13°C | 02:14 |
| LjL | although we also had unprecedented random winds for a day | 02:14 |
| Tuvix | It got to just above freezing here, but is back into the freezer with highes in the day perhaps approaching 0C early next week before more cold. Typically Feb is the coldest month, and our winter was supposed to be chilly overall, so it's meeting with pre-season predictions. | 02:16 |
| Tuvix | Frankly I don't think that'll have a lot of change on Omicron though as much as late-March weather might. With any luck, that'll allow deaths to begin to fall again. | 02:17 |
| LjL | i'm not even sure i "believe" in this thing's seasonality | 02:17 |
| Tuvix | Right, Delta largely made me believe that too, _but_ the crappy US death recovery may have had seasonality as a factor. Or perhaps not not, and Omicron if has the same behavior as Delta did, perhaps due to the higher transmission rate of Delta, things could be even slower to recover. | 02:19 |
| LjL | i remember, i don't remember which variant we had around back then, but that Arizona was pretty much the worst state for a while coinciding with its hottest period in the summer | 02:19 |
| Tuvix | It doesn't help that everything largely started to open backup for business as usual just around the early July holiday, so the timing couldn't have been worse from a gathering perspective. | 02:20 |
| Tuvix | Yes, it was summer and more time outdoors, but people still traveled and gathered largely without masks, and rules even in places that had them were relaxed. | 02:21 |
| LjL | some people would tell me that in Arizona most people would still be indoors with lots of A/C in malls etc | 02:21 |
| LjL | like it might have even had a paradox effect | 02:22 |
| LjL | but i find that a bit too much speculation | 02:22 |
| LjL | every time a wave goes up or down, everyone makes it "fit" into their own view of what makes the virus go up and down | 02:22 |
| LjL | personally after two years i feel safer still stating a big fat thick "I don't know" | 02:22 |
| Tuvix | Well, the lack of restrictions throughout Delta did no one any favors. | 02:22 |
| Tuvix | Although, sure, how much do those matter vs. say vaccination? As you point out, it's hard to point to a set of things and declare that this is the fix, but they all have a cummulative effect. | 02:23 |
| Tuvix | CDC update shows a 0.01 death/7-day/100k improvement (on top of a 0.02 improvement from yesterday.) | 02:24 |
| Tuvix | The peak is, very (very!) slowly showing signs of coming down, and yet JHU's map shows hotspot in many traditionally undervaccinated parts of the country. Presumably this is why the recovery is so slow as of yet. | 02:25 |
| LjL | Tuvix, that's why i always stand by the precautionary principle (no matter how much it was deconstructed by some people smarter than me) where i *don't* necessarily think that X and Y will fix anything, and i will *eschew* magical thinking that they will (because then if i become convinced X and Y fix everything, i might start disregarding other things that are important too), but i will do and propose X and Y anyway if they seem *likely* to have a positive effect | 02:27 |
| LjL | when people go "all-in" on vaccines, or masks, or one given thing... i am uneasy, because we don't *know* that given thing is the one magical fix | 02:27 |
| Tuvix | Indeed, that's part of the reason I'm so careful to mask up when I go somewhere. | 02:27 |
| LjL | honestly i'm among the people who wish they can stop masking *at some point*. i understand some people don't mind masks and would be happier to wear them forever | 02:28 |
| LjL | i really kind of mind them, partly because i find them really uncomfortable at times, and partly because if i always have to wear them, i'll always be reminded of these awful years | 02:28 |
| LjL | and so i hope i can stop wearing them at some point | 02:28 |
| LjL | but for now... same as you | 02:28 |
| Tuvix | Oh, I'd generally love to forgoe them except when there's good cause to stop, or at least not have my fancy TPU one that I need to order replacement filters for as my day-use mask. | 02:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Covid origin mystery breakthrough as early ‘lab-grown’ version of virus found in China | 10FEB22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/sqf51q/covid_origin_mystery_breakthrough_as_early/ | 02:30 |
| LjL | de-facto, this ↑ is the Express so whatever (although i think i saw news of the same yesterday or the day before, in another tabloid) but we meet someone known: "Dr Jesse Bloom, a virologist from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Centre in Seattle, confirmed that the Antarctic samples did contain Covid after re-running the data" | 02:47 |
| de-facto | yeah did read some about it https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1491297823639617538 | 02:47 |
| de-facto | .title | 02:47 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From twitter.com: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): "One postscript: After being deleted from @NIH Sequence Read Archive in early Jan 2022, data were restored later that month. I asked Chinese authors & they did ask to have [...] | 02:47 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1330800/v1 | 02:48 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.researchsquare.com: Host genomes for the unique SARS-CoV-2 variant leaked into Antarctic soil metagenomic sequencing data | Research Square | 02:48 |
| de-facto | .title https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1491297779855278082.html | 02:49 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From threadreaderapp.com: Thread by @jbloom_lab on Thread Reader App â Thread Reader App | 02:49 |
| de-facto | .title https://github.com/jbloom/PRJNA692319_public | 02:49 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From github.com: GitHub - jbloom/PRJNA692319_public: Analysis of Antarctica sequencing samples contaminated with SARS-CoV-2 | 02:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from ##covid-19 Zotero group: Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 reads in sequencing of 2018-2019 Antarctica samples in PRJNA692319: Type Computer Program Programmer Jesse Bloom URL https://github.com/jbloom/PRJNA692319_public Date 2022-02-09T22:01:09Z Extra original-date: 2022-02-09T05:29:29Z Accessed 2022-02-12 01:54:11 [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/HBA3M73L | 02:58 |
| de-facto | .title https://academic.oup.com/mbe/article/38/12/5211/6353034 | 03:14 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From academic.oup.com: Recovery of Deleted Deep Sequencing Data Sheds More Light on the Early Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic | Molecular Biology and Evolution | Oxford Academic | 03:14 |
| de-facto | .title https://github.com/jbloom/SARS-CoV-2_PRJNA612766 | 03:14 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From github.com: GitHub - jbloom/SARS-CoV-2_PRJNA612766: Analysis of early Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 sequences from deleted SRA BioProject PRJNA612766 | 03:14 |
| de-facto | .title https://github.com/jbloom/SARS-CoV-2_Shen_et_al | 03:16 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From github.com: GitHub - jbloom/SARS-CoV-2_Shen_et_al | 03:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +88 deaths since 11 hours ago | 04:06 |
| retrosenator | would nuclear war end the pandemic? | 04:28 |
| enyc | hrrm covid-19 ,where do we go from here? etc... | 04:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): Kristian correctly points out some other mutations (eg at 23525) are "derived," which he is using loosely to mean mutations unlikely to be present in earliest #SARSCoV2 viruses. These two observations consistent w idea that we are seeing mutations from a mix of [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1492340956393185284 | 04:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Exercise after influenza or COVID-19 vaccination increases serum antibody without an increase in side effects → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sqi8nq/exercise_after_influenza_or_covid19_vaccination/ | 05:14 |
| LjL | de-facto, ↑ | 05:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +15242 cases, +61 deaths, +55028 tests (27.7% positive) since a day ago — India: +1926 cases, +1450532 tests (0.1% positive) since 6 hours ago — Germany: +59471 cases since 23 hours ago | 06:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 865: COVID-19 clinical update #101 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #101, Daniel Griffin discusses children and COVID, human challenge study results, effectiveness of mask use, Omicron boost in macaques, mucosal vaccine candidate, long-term cardiovascular outcomes, and global [... want %more?] → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-865/ | 06:12 |
| Tuvix | ~ | 06:45 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Novosibirsk, Russia: +4871 cases, +6 deaths since 23 hours ago — Sabah, Malaysia: +3361 cases, +4 deaths since 23 hours ago — Northern Territory, Australia: +2463 cases since 23 hours ago — W.P. Labuan, Malaysia: +132 cases since 23 hours ago | 07:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 12, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/sqmeno/daily_discussion_thread_february_12_2022/ | 09:03 |
| pwr22 | So it's actually good that I didn't listen to de-facto @de-facto:libera.chat about the exercise stuff after it right LjL @LjL:libera.chat 😉? | 09:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: From obscurity to a Nobel Prize nomination: Houston scientists acclaimed for their patent-free COVID-19 vaccine → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/sqne0w/from_obscurity_to_a_nobel_prize_nomination/ | 10:10 |
| chowmeined | pwr22, wasnt that partly to not exacerbate possible myocarditis? this study was too small to reliably find that | 10:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based COVID-19 Vaccination in the US From December 2020 to August 2021 → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/sqo45e/myocarditis_cases_reported_after_mrnabased/ | 11:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Brunei: +1125 cases since 23 hours ago | 12:00 |
| Arsanerit | %cases Tonga | 12:01 |
| Brainstorm | ZeroDivisionError: float division by zero (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py", line 410, in covid) | 12:01 |
| Arsanerit | Whose bot was Brainstorm again? ZeroDivisionError, does it think Tonga has 0 residents? | 12:01 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: Was it you who maintains Brainstorm? ZeroDivisionError ^^ | 12:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: A study found people who cycled on a stationary bike or took a brisk walk for an hour-and-a-half after getting a flu shot or COVID-19 jab produced more antibodies in the following four weeks compared to participants who sat or continued with their [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/sqp2or/a_study_found_people_who_cycled_on_a_stationary/ | 12:13 |
| enyc | I wonder how more internationally viewed indie_SAGE is | 12:31 |
| enyc | Another good session yesterday https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0GC9QsKfrNc | 12:31 |
| enyc | Another good session yesterday https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GC9QsKfrNc I should say | 12:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu): Worth saying that SARS2 continues to circulate in mink farms (and theres evidence it still spills back into workers/local communities). This is really not ideal and, if nothing else, represents a reservoir for older variants (say Alpha or Delta). → https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1492465688270802951 | 12:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +586 cases since 16 hours ago | 13:03 |
| blueberrycrop | what's the difference between covid VS. the flu or cold... and why so many variants? | 13:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Norway drops almost all COVID-19 restrictions: From Saturday, people will no longer be required to socially distance, wear masks or quarantine if they get infected. → https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-drops-coronavirus-restrictions/ | 13:10 |
| enyc | blueberrycrop: flu has variants too, just you amay not see so much about them | 13:11 |
| blueberrycrop | why is covid such a big issue? | 13:11 |
| blueberrycrop | too many "conspiracies" and people who want "freedom of choice" or something like that? | 13:12 |
| enyc | blueberrycrop: combination of how much it debilitaetes people with suc asymptomatic early stage... and now very very high transmissability | 13:12 |
| enyc | which is much more airbourne than surface in nature | 13:12 |
| blueberrycrop | I just want this nightmare to end | 13:13 |
| enyc | blueberrycrop: do stay on channel and let others answer etc too | 13:14 |
| enyc | alas we have too many people who closeout far too quickly | 13:15 |
| blueberrycrop | has there been any confirmed deaths due to vaccine? or something like adverse health effects from taking it? | 13:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from Il Sole 24 Ore: La brusca frenata della campagna vaccinale: in due settimane somministrazioni dimezzate: Si tratta soprattutto di terze dosi, mentre i nuovi vaccinati sia nella fascia d’età tra i 5-11 anni che soprattutto tra gli over 50 sono [... want %more?] → https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/la-brusca-frenata-campagna-vaccinale-due-settimane-somministrazioni-dimezzate-AEAwkkDB | 13:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +207302 cases since 23 hours ago | 15:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Matthew (@MatthewDavidH): A friend with small children, who is understandably upset, asked me why Pfizer used such a low dose for their vaccine in small children. → https://twitter.com/MatthewDavidH/status/1492484844835774467 | 15:44 |
| de-facto | pwr22, the effect seems tiny though, 25% antibody level difference is as good as nothing in biology | 16:01 |
| de-facto | so i think whatever they measured there does not really make a difference, though if you could avoid a myocarditis progression it very well may make a difference | 16:02 |
| de-facto | i stay with my position: no high pulse rate scenarios at least for 2 weeks after infection or vaccination | 16:02 |
| de-facto | btw note that i always said *moderate* movement is beneficial (for thrombosis prophylaxis as well as moderately moving the muscle of injection), hence going for a walk instead of for a run in the 2 weeks after antigen exposure | 16:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Convalescent Plasma May Safely Treat Children at High Risk of Severe COVID-19: Convalescent plasma safely raised antibody levels in children at high risk of severe or fatal COVID-19, successfully neutralizing the virus but unlikely to [... want %more?] → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/convalescent-plasma-may-safely-treat-children-at-high-risk-of-severe-covid-19 | 17:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +123 deaths since 23 hours ago | 17:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): That’s the lowest daily case figure since mid-December. And reported deaths (167) are >35% down on last Saturday’s figure (259).coronavirus.data.gov.uk pic.twitter.com/G1TSY6EAgu → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1492530403093237764 | 17:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Yesterday the @US_FDA gave emergency authorization for bebtelovimab, a monoclonal antibody, for "its highly potent activity" vs Omicron and the US purchased $720 million. Where are the data for the medical community to see?nytimes.com/2022/02/11/us/… @SherylNYT [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492537970338852864 | 17:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): There's no room for Covid complacencythelancet.com/action/showPdf… @TheLancet by @richardhorton1 pic.twitter.com/DKcw462YMB → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492545136806350849 | 18:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +70396 cases, +12 deaths since 16 hours ago | 18:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Jeffrey Barrett (@jcbarret): Good thread on this study (which is a bit grim), though it doesn’t mention what I consider most important context: all infections studied were pre-vaccine era. Infections since then far less likely to be severe, and even “mild” cases may be better off if [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1492546480829304840 | 18:17 |
| Timvde | Is there any information about long covid regarding omicron / infection after vaccination? Measures are getting looser and people around me want to just go out and don't care anymore if they get it "because they're vaccinated and omicron is mild anyway", but I still don't think that's a good idea :/ | 18:18 |
| LjL-Matrix | Arsanerit: yes it's mine, and I added something recently to divide tests by population, I may have whoopsied on checking for lack of population data | 18:23 |
| LjL-Matrix | I'll give it a look soon | 18:24 |
| xx | Timvde: tell them that every infection carries the risk of creating a new mutant | 18:25 |
| xx | on a personal note, I'd worry about infecting people who had covid before or are vaccinated, because if a mutant comes from those, it'll be a mutant that evades immunity | 18:26 |
| LjL-Matrix | I'm afraid it may be a lost battle to convince people to stay alert when countries are pointedly removing all restrictions. I see above Norway is doing it too now following the UK | 18:27 |
| LjL-Matrix | Including removing any quarantine for positives which just seems crazy to me... unless you want to make a specific point that it's all over | 18:28 |
| Timvde | Yea, we're not removing *all* restrictions, but it's close | 18:28 |
| LjL-Matrix | The CDC's 5 days seemed more than enough relaxation of quarantine | 18:29 |
| Timvde | > Vaccines reduce the risk of long COVID by lowering the chances of contracting COVID-19 in the first place. But for those who do experience a breakthrough infection, studies suggest that vaccination might only halve the risk of long COVID — or have no effect on it at all | 18:31 |
| Timvde | from https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03495-2 | 18:31 |
| Timvde | :/ | 18:31 |
| xx | "lowering the chances of contracting COVID-19" has that actually been demonstrated to be significant? Whenever I read those things, I don't get a sense that they abstract the vaccines from the typical behavior of a person who gets vaccinated (more likely to wear mask, wash hands, limit interactions, ...) | 18:34 |
| Arsanerit | anything known on omikron and long covid? | 18:34 |
| xx | like sure, on a global level, decreasing the chance of infection by 1% will be something, not nothing | 18:34 |
| xx | but still not something that'd lead me to say "vaccines decrease chance of infection" when talking to an individual person | 18:34 |
| de-facto | xx people dont care about other people anymore, most only care about themselves (e.g. risk for long covid etc) but ignore the risk of creating new mutants or infecting others | 18:34 |
| xx | de-facto: fair point, you're right, mentioning long-covid would probably be a better course of action | 18:35 |
| Timvde | de-facto: it seems like many people don't care about themselves anymore either | 18:35 |
| de-facto | its just the western world attitude, egocentric and short sighted | 18:35 |
| xx | de-facto: it's spreading to the east too sadly :( | 18:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Theo Sanderson (@theosanderson): Parkrun time series are also kinda interesting to get a sense of the extent to which we haven't yet returned to pre-pandemic behaviour, even for something very low-risk parkrun.org.uk/results/histor… pic.twitter.com/9kl4lqd0gQ → https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1492550994114318342 | 18:36 |
| xx | well, that attitude is spreading worldwide | 18:36 |
| Timvde | I get it, I'm tired of it too, but that doesn't make it less bad | 18:37 |
| Timvde | And until I see an actual academic paper that long covid never or barely ever happens after an omicron infection, the safe thing to do is assuming that it's still the same | 18:40 |
| de-facto | people want to have fun, be entertained, make party, travel, dont get bored in quarantine, if the price is importing mutants, infect others and harm their health or even kill them, people dont care, they only care if it could possibly be to their own disadvantage, not even thinking that such a disadvantage also could be by harming a society they profit from participating in | 18:40 |
| Arsanerit | (Some) people also want to drive 200 km/h on the motorway for the thrill or for the time saved, even if it dramatically increases the chance of killing themselves and others. | 18:43 |
| Arsanerit | The only reason most people in most countries don't do that is that in most countries doing so is illegal and they may/will lose their license if caught. | 18:43 |
| LjL | xx, actually the apparent negative efficacy of vaccines after some time shown lately may suggest that vaccinated people may be *less* careful. i bet both effects interplay | 18:44 |
| de-facto | well but in a pandemic a single mistake from someone (may) kill thousands | 18:44 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, yes good example indeed | 18:44 |
| Arsanerit | True, but it's not possible to control the behaviour of 8 billion people. | 18:44 |
| LjL | Timvde, i don't remember what to search for right now, but while i definitely remember the findings that long COVID incidence is only about halved by the vaccine (post-infection), i think there were some other more recent and slightly more reassuring findings | 18:44 |
| LjL | i don't have anything about omicron+long covid though | 18:44 |
| Arsanerit | Probably too early to tell about omicron + long covid? | 18:45 |
| de-facto | i think so, it has not been circulating for long time | 18:45 |
| Timvde | LjL: also that in the whole population (vaccinated and unvaccinated) a lot of people have been infected already, there aren't a lot of immunologically naive people left | 18:46 |
| Arsanerit | Is there anything known about long covid in reinfections vs. first infections? | 18:47 |
| de-facto | i mean we dont have any reason to assume Omicron infected would *not* have also some probability for developing long lasting symptoms, as long COVID with other variants also is possible for mild infections | 18:47 |
| Timvde | de-facto: that's also what I expect | 18:48 |
| de-facto | so as long as we can not exclude it with some high probability, we should stick to our observations with other variants and assume that a certain fraction of Omicron infected will develop some (different?) spectrum of long lasting COVID symptoms | 18:48 |
| de-facto | so from that perspective its absolutely crazy to let it rip through a population, without even having a coarse estimate for the fraction of infected that will end up impacting the healthcare system and be less productive due to developing long COVID | 18:50 |
| de-facto | we may hope that vaccination lowers that risk significantly, hopefully also with Omicron | 18:50 |
| Arsanerit | Does prior infection lower the risk of long covid significantly? | 18:51 |
| de-facto | possibly | 18:51 |
| Arsanerit | My colleague has had two prior infections and two vaccine doses, and doesn't know his status anymore, because this combination is not listed among the 11 possible ways to get "2G+" in Hesse state law. | 18:52 |
| de-facto | not sure, but one may assume that similar mechanisms could apply to reinfection than to breakthrough infection lowering risk for long COVID | 18:52 |
| Arsanerit | I suppose he should still get the booster at some point, but when? | 18:53 |
| de-facto | maybe also there possibly could be cofounding factors, such as genetic preposition that have impact on the averaged probability for developing long COVID symptoms | 18:53 |
| de-facto | boosting does not hurt, i guess in worst case its a wasted dose of vaccine | 18:54 |
| LjL | Timvde, hmm i'm not really finding anything in the logs confirming my memory that there were some other studies showing a more encouraging effect of vaccines on long covid | 18:54 |
| de-facto | depending on how long ago his immune system got the last encounter with the antigen he might profit from receiving a booster though | 18:54 |
| Arsanerit | I think his second infection was about two weeks ago. | 18:55 |
| de-facto | so i guess, either no benefit or quite some benefit, most likely (almost certain) no harm, possibly wasting a dose though | 18:55 |
| LjL | Timvde, i take it back, i found it on Zotero: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.05.22268800v2 | 18:55 |
| LjL | %title | 18:55 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.medrxiv.org: Association between vaccination status and reported incidence of post-acute COVID-19 symptoms in Israel: a cross-sectional study of patients tested between March 2020 and November 2021 | medRxiv | 18:55 |
| Arsanerit | So maybe more useful for him to wait a little | 18:55 |
| de-facto | then its probably a waste though, infection 2 weeks ago is already boosting his immunity | 18:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): SARS-COV-2 will become endemic like the common cold or influenza. It means it becomes a constant presence in a population, with fewer disruptions to everyday life, and follows a more seasonal pattern.wsj.com/articles/endem… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1492555580531220491 | 18:55 |
| de-facto | yeah id wait a little in his place | 18:55 |
| LjL | Zotero is useful when i don't forget to add studies to it ;P select tags "Long COVID" and "Vaccines" together, and voila https://www.zotero.org/groups/4391070/covid_links/tags/Long%20COVID,Vaccines/library | 18:56 |
| de-facto | i mean if he got infected 2 weeks ago, then most likely with Omicron, and that is the very majority of the current wave, so his specific (Omicron) immunity should be helpful in avoiding another of those infections | 18:57 |
| Timvde | LjL: That's a bit reassuring | 18:57 |
| Arsanerit | Yes. | 18:57 |
| LjL | Timvde, note "online questionnaire" though | 18:58 |
| LjL | i'm always a bit eeeeh about studies based on those | 18:58 |
| Arsanerit | Fortunately for him the infection he got after two vaccine doses was much milder than the infection he got before two vaccine doses (summer 2020). | 18:58 |
| Timvde | LjL: note "a bit" though :) | 18:58 |
| LjL | fair enough :P | 18:58 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, yes the hope is that this is how it should progress for majorities | 18:58 |
| Timvde | Arsanerit: as is to be expected, I'd think :P | 18:59 |
| Arsanerit | Yes. | 18:59 |
| de-facto | hopefully future mutants will follow this pattern | 18:59 |
| Timvde | Arsanerit: what is 2G+ btw? | 18:59 |
| Timvde | I can't distinguish all the different combinations anymore :P | 18:59 |
| Arsanerit | Timvde: Some German concept of combination of three prior immunisations by a combination of vaccine doses and infections. | 18:59 |
| de-facto | plus a negative test (the "+") | 19:00 |
| Arsanerit | Timvde: summarised (at German) in https://www.hessen.de/sites/hessen.hessen.de/files/2022-02/2G-PlusRegelnerfuellt_0702_V4.pdf | 19:00 |
| Arsanerit | Ah yes, either two prior immunisations + negative test, or three prior immunisations | 19:00 |
| Arsanerit | Except that people with two doses also count as 2g+ if second dose is less than 90 days ago, at least in Hessen they do | 19:00 |
| Timvde | So he should be fine with 2 vaccines + 2 infections for now, right? | 19:00 |
| de-facto | if you ask me, completely nuts, we should just 1) make testing mandatory for everyone regardless of immune status 2) make tests easily available for everyone for free | 19:00 |
| Arsanerit | Timvde: yes | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | seems like they've recently changed the definition of 2G+ again | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | where previously it was 28 days after previous infection, now it's from the day of leaving isolation | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | But yes, originally 2G+ means vaccinated AND tested, but they've adapted the definition so much that most people are 2G+ without testing, IMO defeating the point. | 19:02 |
| de-facto | yeah its nuts | 19:02 |
| Arsanerit | I agree about (1), and as for (2) I think tests are already easily available for everyone for free, but usually not PCR tests | 19:02 |
| Timvde | de-facto: but who will do all the tests? | 19:02 |
| de-facto | and even worse, it completely ignores the very *FACT* that fully vaccinated can infect others | 19:03 |
| Arsanerit | At least around here there are many testing centres for rapid tests, free at the point of charge. | 19:03 |
| Timvde | We have relatively cheap self tests, and I've probably done about 20 by now and try to do them properly | 19:03 |
| Arsanerit | Given the fact that fully vaccinated can infect others, are mandatory vaccinations for healthcare staff still reasonable? | 19:03 |
| Timvde | But if you tell people "To enter this event, you have to do a self test, and if it's positive, you're not getting in", do you really think they're gonna do it properly? | 19:03 |
| Arsanerit | We get self tests at work, which I can use in the rare cases I come into the office. | 19:04 |
| Arsanerit | Timvde: Self tests aren't recognised for those, at least not here. | 19:04 |
| Arsanerit | When negative test is required, it has to be at a recognised testing centre. | 19:04 |
| Timvde | Arsanerit: so, then back to my other question: who will do all the tests? | 19:04 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, if personnel is the limiting resource in healthcare industry, then it may make sense to 1) lower their risk of getting infected (hence becoming unavailable) 2) lower their risk of ending up hospitalized themselves | 19:04 |
| Arsanerit | Timvde: Testing centres do. | 19:04 |
| Tuvix | Arsanerit: To a point, yes; those are not only jobs that face a lot of people, but many of them immune-compromised or sick enough to have serious problems if they get infected. The reduction in infection risk isn't as good from vaccination as against severe outcomes of course, but it's a multiplier to reduce the risk of spreading it. | 19:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from ##covid-19 Zotero group: Do vaccines protect against long COVID? What the data say: Type Journal Article Author Heidi Ledford URL https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03495-2 Rights 2021 Nature Volume 599 Issue 7886 Pages 546-548 Publication Nature Date 2021-11-23 DOI 10.1038/d41586-021-03495-2 [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/8MWVMNAD | 19:05 |
| Timvde | Arsanerit: That costs a whole damn lot of money | 19:05 |
| Arsanerit | Timvde: It also saves a lot of money. | 19:05 |
| Arsanerit | The money saved may be harder to calculate, but testing saves lives and money. | 19:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +197099 cases, +167 deaths since 23 hours ago | 19:05 |
| Tuvix | Also, if healthcare workers have a more responsive immune-system, it's very likely, in aggregate, to reduce the viral load of an infection that occurs before a test catches it, and the reduction in viral load may well result in less spread. Again, this is overall, because there are always breakthrough cases and exceptions, but overall, that trend seems to be holding true across variants. | 19:06 |
| Arsanerit | Tuvix: okay | 19:06 |
| Tuvix | Obviously regardless of vaccination status, the correct use of PPE by healthcare workers (both for their sake and their patients' sake) are important, along with good testing and enough time-off to reduce the risk of spreading it to other patients as much as possible. | 19:06 |
| de-facto | though, if vaccines would be made mandatory, i think it would make sense to not distinguish people (because it would give raise to competitions), but rather make it mandatory for everyone | 19:06 |
| de-facto | for the virus it does not matter anyhow, it will infect anyone available per transmission path | 19:07 |
| Arsanerit | I'm not sure if mandatory vaccinations for everyone can be motivated by the risk of overloading healthcare. I'm rather leaning to mandatory vaccinations for risk groups, such as above a certain age thresholds and people with certain medical conditions. | 19:07 |
| de-facto | and, depending on circumstances, a fraction of those will end up hospitalized | 19:07 |
| Arsanerit | There's one such proposal in German parliament, I think from 60 or 50 years (not sure), and I think some countries have such a vaccine mandate for old people already (Italy and Greece, if I recall correctly?). | 19:08 |
| Tuvix | I mean, look at the US: we've had 2 waves of overloading our ICUs (Delta and now Omicron) and it hasn't really done anything to improve the vaccination rate; only a very mild increase in new first-time 2-dose recipients, and quickly trends returned to normal. | 19:08 |
| de-facto | so if we know that this fraction can be lowered by at least 10-fold with a vaccination, it makes sense to protect 9 from 10 infected that potentially otherwise would end up hospitalized | 19:08 |
| Arsanerit | A fraction of everyone will always get hospitalised, but if the fraction is small enough, hospitals can deal without without threatening regular healthcare access. | 19:08 |
| Tuvix | Now, the US may not be a good example in terms of a population willing to re-considered, of the ones that aren't yet vaccinated, but I do think there are some like that most places (the US just has more of them) | 19:08 |
| Tuvix | Yes, if we can reduce the impact, and the death toll, we'll be in a much better place dealing with the pandemic. Some thought that would happen after the Alpha wave. Then we got Delta. Many said that it would be over after Delta; then we got Omicron. | 19:09 |
| Tuvix | We'd be utterly foolish to assume the same can't happen again. | 19:09 |
| Arsanerit | So reducing the fraction by a factor X is not enough reason, one needs to consider the absolute numbers and ICU capacity too. | 19:09 |
| Arsanerit | Why did Omicron overload US healthcare systems? That doesn't seem to have happened in Europe afaik. | 19:09 |
| de-facto | the aim would be to have a fully immunized population on next fall, when the next mutant will cause a wave | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | I mean for ICU specifically. | 19:10 |
| de-facto | for the Omicron wave, this is too late now | 19:10 |
| de-facto | the next mutant could have different properties though, e.g. may be as immuno evasive as Omicron and as severe as Delta or such (if we are unlucky) | 19:10 |
| Tuvix | Arsanerit: Indeed, were you around yesterday when I was linking some comparison charts? A lot of it has to do with a combination of lower vaccination uptake in the US, large pockets of *far* lower-vaccination rates in certain areas (often rural/poor ones,) combined with the US complete lack of meaningful restrictions since mid-2021 | 19:10 |
| Timvde | Arsanerit: omicron could barely be called a wave in the ICU | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | Timvde: true | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | US is weird. | 19:11 |
| Arsanerit | Tuvix: True | 19:11 |
| Tuvix | I linked some charts showing US vs. other countries. Comparing to Germany, UK, Italy, etc, shows that whatever the US is doing, it's getting far more ICU/death as a result from both Delta and now Omicron. | 19:11 |
| Arsanerit | I don't understand why the USA has so many antivaxxers in some regions. | 19:11 |
| Tuvix | It all plays a part, but vaccination rates are the #1 cause, and I suspect a general attitude of wanting to be "done" combined with weak-to-nonexistant mitigation policies plays a major role too. | 19:11 |
| Arsanerit | It's one thing to oppose mandatory vaccinations; there are good arguments to oppose them; but it's another thing to reject vaccines for oneself when offered. | 19:11 |
| Tuvix | Earlier you were all talking about quarantine and such; nation-wide in the US, that's never been legally required (though some jobs or states/cities may have tried to do that.) | 19:12 |
| Arsanerit | Here it was required, but never enforced... | 19:12 |
| Arsanerit | bbl, dinner | 19:12 |
| Tuvix | Even our 5-day CDC quarantine + 5 days always-masking around others is "guidance" | 19:12 |
| Timvde | https://nextcloud.vdeynde.com/s/n7xsS96PpTA259g | 19:13 |
| Timvde | That's our ICU numbers over the past 2 years | 19:13 |
| de-facto | what part of US citizens follow guidance, which part may possible even anti-follow guidance? | 19:13 |
| Tuvix | You have both factors, yes, but the failure of the CDC to have a clear message and the apperance of always being delayed behind the science in their public messaging also doesn't help. | 19:14 |
| Timvde | Although deaths are also up, so it just that the inflow doesn't exceed the outflow... | 19:14 |
| Timvde | If people just die quicker, it would look the same o_o | 19:14 |
| Tuvix | Right, the US is worse on basically all metrics; it's not just ICUs getting hit, but ICU and death outcomes tend to be related; by the time you're in an ICU, you're in pretty bad shape. | 19:14 |
| Tuvix | That holds true for children as well; they do slightly better in ICU-to-death outcomes, but as one children's doctor I heard interviewed on one of my podcast feeds put it, "children aren't doing great if they're in the ICU" | 19:15 |
| de-facto | but Timvde isnt that occupancy, so the sum of daily new ICU admissions and daily ICU outflow (maybe half recovered half dead) or such? | 19:15 |
| Timvde | de-facto: the graph is the number of people that are actually in the ICU on a given day | 19:16 |
| de-facto | or 75% recovered 25% dead if 50% of ICU admissions end up ventilated and 50% of ventilated die | 19:16 |
| de-facto | yeah | 19:16 |
| de-facto | so ICU occupancy | 19:17 |
| Timvde | Uhu | 19:17 |
| de-facto | hopefully a bit less with Omicron though (the numbers i cited are with previous variants) | 19:17 |
| Timvde | It's strange how the deaths are now similar to the delta wave of November, but the ICU occupancy is still much lower | 19:17 |
| Tuvix | When comparing the US, probably the UK is the "most similar" in terms of overall pandemic impact. Until Delta, the US & UK were pretty much neck-and-neck going by the death tolls alone, with the US having a slight advantage in a tiny bit fewer per capita deaths, but that all reversed even before Delta hit. | 19:17 |
| Tuvix | https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2020-10-26..latest&Metric=Vaccine+doses%2C+cases%2C+ICU+patients%2C+and+deaths&country=USA~GBR | 19:18 |
| de-facto | Timvde, yes indeed | 19:18 |
| de-facto | i thought some were still Delta long haulers that lost the fight for their life | 19:18 |
| Tuvix | Notice a few important things: 1) even pre-Delta, the US had more ICU patients than the UK, including pre-vaccine, 2) the UK mostly resolved the insane rise in ICU each wave starting with Delta; the US did not, 3) even though UK saw a jump in deaths for Omicron, it was much less during Delta than the US saw. | 19:19 |
| Timvde | de-facto: that could be, but it's strange how deaths went down first | 19:19 |
| de-facto | but at some point Delta in circulation should have become negligible so it must transition to Omicron | 19:19 |
| de-facto | i just wish they would publish stats about the VoCs in hospitalized, ICU patient and diseased | 19:19 |
| Timvde | de-facto: this is the number of daily deaths: https://nextcloud.vdeynde.com/s/8etBJ2QWNrjtLaA | 19:20 |
| Timvde | de-facto: "VoC"? | 19:20 |
| de-facto | whic place is that? | 19:20 |
| de-facto | VoC = Variant of Concern | 19:21 |
| de-facto | such as Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, ... Omicron | 19:21 |
| Timvde | Let's see if our dashboard has information about that, but I don't think so | 19:21 |
| de-facto | NL? | 19:22 |
| Timvde | Belgium | 19:22 |
| de-facto | ah | 19:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Official mortality data for England suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sqxic1/official_mortality_data_for_england_suggest/ | 19:24 |
| Timvde | Nope, this is the only information we have about variants: https://datastudio.google.com/embed/reporting/c14a5cfc-cab7-4812-848c-0369173148ab/page/urrUC | 19:25 |
| de-facto | they have quite nice documents at https://covid-19.sciensano.be/fr/covid-19-informations-scientifiques though | 19:26 |
| Tuvix | I think part of the issue with hospital/ICU/death VoC stats is that the percentages are more easy in aggregate since not every case gets a sequencing test done to determine which varient. | 19:28 |
| Tuvix | If they aren't getting mAb or other treatment that may depend on the VoC, it may well not even be clinically relevant from the patient perspective. | 19:28 |
| de-facto | well they should do that, also to target treatment better | 19:28 |
| Tuvix | Well, that's the other flaw is that not only don't we have many mAb's that still work well against Omicron, but they're in very short supply too. | 19:29 |
| de-facto | nice dashboard for BE btw | 19:29 |
| Tuvix | The oral treatments may help, but as we discussed earlier this week, timely testing is crucial for those to be as effective. | 19:29 |
| chowmeined | the vaccines should've targeted multiple proteins | 19:30 |
| chowmeined | this variant chasing is a mistake | 19:30 |
| Tuvix | Well, they have some early results from the Omicron-targeted vaccines I believe, and the results aren't as stunning as some had hoped. | 19:30 |
| Tuvix | We saw the same thing back when the vaccines were tested targeting I believe it was the Beta VoC; the improvement in neutralization against the virus wasn't all that much better, although there was mild improvement. | 19:31 |
| de-facto | iirc BioNTech found that boosting with Alpha instead of Wuhan-Hu-1 signature in mRNA would give 466% protection increase against Omicron | 19:31 |
| Tuvix | Now, was it better not to re-tool the vaccines anyway? It's hard to say. | 19:31 |
| Tuvix | Right, now that may have been a reason to re-tool against Alpha, but it's a bit late to go back and do that now. The real quation is will it be time now to consider doing something different with boosters moving forward given what we've learned to date. | 19:32 |
| Timvde | de-facto: yes, there's quite a lot of public info :) | 19:32 |
| Tuvix | It's a bit of guesswork, because we don't really know what the next mutation will look like, or how serious it will be compared to prior waves. | 19:33 |
| Timvde | There's also this dashboard: https://covid-vaccinatie.be/en | 19:33 |
| de-facto | it does not make too much sense to continue with an over 2-year old s-protein signature imho they should include the full spectrum of every wide spread variant to raise immunity against all of them | 19:34 |
| Timvde | which is not official, but maintained by an individual who bases it on official data | 19:34 |
| chowmeined | i think it should include the other viral proteins, some of them | 19:34 |
| de-facto | that way the potential overlap of an immune system "library" with a new wild type mutant may get maximized | 19:34 |
| chowmeined | idk which are the good candidates of E M and N | 19:34 |
| de-facto | immunity against some proteins may even be counter productive, e.g. N or such | 19:35 |
| chowmeined | for antibodies or T cells | 19:35 |
| de-facto | obviously the S-protein seems to be quite a good (unfortunately) moving vaccine target | 19:35 |
| chowmeined | doesnt it depend | 19:35 |
| chowmeined | did the omicron booster study even look at T cell response | 19:35 |
| de-facto | the BioNTech presentation was estimating that about 80% of the T-cell epitopes were conserved | 19:36 |
| Timvde | de-facto: what's the N-protein and why would it be counter-productive? | 19:36 |
| de-facto | the nucleocapsid protein is inside the virion, its RNA is wrapped around it | 19:36 |
| chowmeined | de-facto, so this other study is what has me concerned: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)00140-4 | 19:36 |
| de-facto | having antibodies against the N-protein does not prevent cellular entry (such as clamping antibodies to the S-protein would have) | 19:37 |
| Timvde | de-facto: so it's just not very productive, but not counter-productive? | 19:40 |
| chowmeined | Timvde, maybe its plenty productive for T cells | 19:40 |
| chowmeined | is the goal to block infection or prevent severe disease | 19:41 |
| Timvde | I'd say severe disease *and* long covid | 19:41 |
| Timvde | But there's not a lot of information regarding the latter | 19:41 |
| chowmeined | its a tall order | 19:41 |
| de-facto | Timvde, i am not sure, iirc there was something with ADE and N-protein or such (with other CoVs?) | 19:42 |
| chowmeined | the long covid part | 19:42 |
| chowmeined | "M is the most abundant envelope protein" | 19:43 |
| chowmeined | maybe S and M would be a good target | 19:43 |
| chowmeined | and how about S from a few strains | 19:43 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2021.791753/full <-- also not desirable | 19:43 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.frontiersin.org: Frontiers | SARS-CoV-2 N Protein Induces Acute Lung Injury in Mice via NF-ĸB Activation | Immunology | 19:43 |
| de-facto | it really would have to be evaluated carefully, its far from being as easy as "the more proteins the better", infact it may be worse if targeting the wrong proteins | 19:44 |
| chowmeined | it does need to be evaluated carefully | 19:45 |
| chowmeined | and we need to stop overfocusing on neutralizing antibodies | 19:45 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83108-0 | 19:46 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: Role of IgG against N-protein of SARS-CoV2 in COVID19 clinical outcomes | Scientific Reports | 19:46 |
| Timvde | de-facto: do you mean that if we include it in a vaccine, that could cause lung injury? | 19:46 |
| Tuvix | Yea, the antibody response really is not the goal, although it's also one of the easiest things to measure as compared to T-cell, or even harder (but possibly more useful in humans long-term,) B-cell long-term antibody-producing cell memory. | 19:47 |
| chowmeined | but theres also non-neutralizing antibodies that have important jobs, recruiting other cells | 19:47 |
| Tuvix | For instance, it's not a waning of antibodies in the blood that really matter, but the effectiveness of a response against a new CoV infection. | 19:47 |
| chowmeined | s/but/and | 19:47 |
| de-facto | i think the s-protein is a good vaccine target, but the immunity against it should get broadened by presenting a broader variety of s-protein variants to the immune system | 19:48 |
| Tuvix | Right, and that's significant in particular for people with weakened immune systems who will never respond as well as a healthy person to vaccination or infection in terms of durable protection. | 19:48 |
| chowmeined | i think more than S needs to be targeted, perhaps M | 19:48 |
| de-facto | maybe, at some bright day in the future, vaccine manufacturers will get forced into producing a multivalent vaccine | 19:48 |
| chowmeined | because if omicron is avoiding T cell response in 20% of people, thats a big problem | 19:48 |
| chowmeined | people arent going to keep getting boosters every 6 months | 19:49 |
| chowmeined | some might, but many wont | 19:49 |
| Tuvix | It's not sustainable long-term, I agree, although that's the best we have to date. I'm really hoping mid-summer or into fall there's a more improved vaccine as an option for me to take, because I'd at least like to get vaccination looking more like the annual flu vaccines I can already get. | 19:50 |
| Tuvix | Even 1/yr many people won't take a preventative vaccine (we see this with the flu, although notably it's a less effective vaccine and the impact is skewed a lot more to the older ages) | 19:50 |
| de-facto | also maybe artificial epitopes may present the more conserved parts of the virion surface to the immune system, because there should be a reason for those regions to be conserved | 19:51 |
| de-facto | obviously the RBD of the S-protein is not so much conserved yet | 19:51 |
| de-facto | so maybe those efforts towards a pan-CoV vaccine may go that path? | 19:52 |
| chowmeined | T cells benefit from being able to respond to epitopes from interior proteins | 19:52 |
| Timvde | Well, on the Belgian vaccination dashboard I shared, you can see the massively decreased number of people who got the third shot already :/ | 19:52 |
| chowmeined | we can look to balancing the response | 19:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): Denmark is playing the herd immunity game albeit with very high vaccination rates. Will it work? But it is like Russian roulette and so sad for the ones that get the bullet. twitter.com/fibke/status/1… → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1492570048732569603 | 19:53 |
| de-facto | well it really would have to be well balanced (and evaluated by trials) because once the immune system is imprinted to react to a viral protein it will remember doing so | 19:53 |
| chowmeined | do we really know that, i wish the variant specific booster studies would do 2 shots 6 months apart | 19:54 |
| de-facto | so manufacturers really would have to make sure the response to a specific epitope is (and remains) beneficial | 19:54 |
| chowmeined | 2 shots of the variant | 19:54 |
| de-facto | well we dont really have that much time though | 19:54 |
| chowmeined | there was a paper finding that a large number of naive B cells are recruited to germinal centers during each exposure | 19:54 |
| de-facto | hence my suggestion to go with multiple variants in each shot (just like with the flu vaccines) | 19:54 |
| chowmeined | so original sin may shift over time and not be so permanent | 19:55 |
| de-facto | to increase the probability for epitope overlap with future wild types | 19:55 |
| Tuvix | Yea, I'd seen similar reports of the importance of B-cell memory and that it seems to take repeated exposure to build a level of responsiveness there. | 19:55 |
| de-facto | yes chowmeined and that woudl be supported by BNT finding that boosting with ALpha instead of Wuhan-Hu-1 is beneficial for Omicron immunity (increase 466% ) | 19:56 |
| de-facto | which would be good news indeed | 19:56 |
| Tuvix | Now, the open question is for a 2 (or better, 2 + boost) mRNA recipient, does a targeted VoC booster also provide a similar response, or are 2 of *each* new major VoC required? | 19:56 |
| chowmeined | it takes the affinity maturation to complete to see the benefits | 19:56 |
| chowmeined | thats why id like to see 6 months studies on variant boosters | 19:56 |
| chowmeined | its true its tough with the time constraints | 19:56 |
| de-facto | im sure they will follow up their trials | 19:56 |
| chowmeined | Tuvix, thats what id like to see, but i dont think they've done that | 19:57 |
| Tuvix | Right, if the next wave hits us mid-summer again, 6-month trials plus some months to re-tool & produce the vaccine is a very long time in terms of the varient. | 19:57 |
| Tuvix | That's really just too long in the evolution of this virus. | 19:57 |
| chowmeined | thats why i think adding another protein will help | 19:57 |
| chowmeined | it will make it that much harder for a variant to escape T cells | 19:58 |
| chowmeined | since we can never rely on antibodies forever | 19:58 |
| chowmeined | well, never is a strong word | 19:58 |
| chowmeined | but thats the pattern | 19:58 |
| Tuvix | Perhaps, although that depends a lot on the evolution. Omicrion was significantly different than Original/Alpha/Beta, and even quite a bit different than Delta in terms of genomic changes. | 19:58 |
| Tuvix | Nothing stops something else from popping up that is as different to Omicron as Omicron was to Delta. | 19:59 |
| chowmeined | T cell epitopes benefit from being able to target parts of proteins that arent external, that dont face as much evolutionary pressure | 19:59 |
| chowmeined | T cells* | 19:59 |
| de-facto | if multivalent vaccination would result in a broader spectrum of epitopes in both, memory B-cells and T-cells, it may result in enough variety that it will have something effective available if a future mutant has at least some of those epitopes conserved | 19:59 |
| chowmeined | the other thing i wonder from that cell paper is, given the concentration of mutations in a few HLAs | 19:59 |
| de-facto | it probably will not result in neutralizing immunity but protective against severe outcomes | 20:00 |
| chowmeined | maybe that was the HLA profile the hypothetical immunocompromised host that originated omicron | 20:00 |
| de-facto | and then get boosted and reshaped by every future breakthrough infection | 20:00 |
| chowmeined | they should try that in mice | 20:00 |
| chowmeined | yeah, im not sure we will be able to get a durable neutralizing vaccine | 20:01 |
| chowmeined | so can we focus on preventing severe disease | 20:01 |
| de-facto | preventing severe disease and reduce spread by wearing masks etc | 20:02 |
| de-facto | because the more infections the more breeding of mutants | 20:02 |
| de-facto | if infections per carrier last shorter it may limit the "trial and error" antigenic landscape that each step in an infection chain may cover | 20:03 |
| chowmeined | my other takeaway was | 20:03 |
| Tuvix | Preventing severe outcomes is the real endemic-stage goal, along with reducing social impact, of which hospital/ICU/deaths obviously contribute (can't be a contributing society member when you're stuck in bed with around-the-clock care) | 20:03 |
| chowmeined | we need to get antiretrovirals out to everyone who needs them | 20:04 |
| Tuvix | Frankly reducing infection incidence is a nice bonus which will come with that, but I don't see that as the primary goal. | 20:04 |
| chowmeined | if thats ending up as a source of viral mutation | 20:04 |
| de-facto | yes definitely | 20:04 |
| chowmeined | i mean, its also the right thing to do for other reasons | 20:04 |
| de-facto | immuno-compromised are incubators of mutants | 20:04 |
| Tuvix | I also think it was a mistake to push the comparitive success at infection rates earlier on in the pandemic; that's not the purpose of vaccines, but many who were already on the fence about vaccination are pointing to that as "proof" vaccines are failing. | 20:04 |
| de-facto | so we need a *global* healthcare concept that also includes the poor that cant afford expensive antiretrovirals etc | 20:05 |
| Tuvix | Yes, reduction of infection is good (and acts as a baseline multiplier for all immune-response to some degree.) But it's not the purpose. | 20:05 |
| chowmeined | the intranasal vaccines show some promise, i hope more of that research is funded | 20:05 |
| de-facto | we know that for a fact as there are papers observing the antigenic drift in long lasting viral infections | 20:06 |
| chowmeined | tissue resident memory T cells | 20:06 |
| Tuvix | I don't wear a seatbelt in my car to cut down the risk of a crash (I drive more savely myself obviously.) I wear a seatbelt so that *if* I'm in a crash, my outcome odds are improved. | 20:06 |
| Tuvix | seatbelt ≈ vaccination. | 20:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +62221 cases, +269 deaths, +587645 tests (10.6% positive) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +46086 cases, +170 deaths since 23 hours ago — Canada: +7572 cases, +127 deaths since 23 hours ago | 20:08 |
| xx | Tuvix: most people just wear a seatbelt because it's legally required | 20:10 |
| xx | if they got rid of the seatbelt mandate, people would stop wearing seatbelts | 20:10 |
| Tuvix | There's part of that, although that's also a big part of why so many in places like the US (and many other countries) vaccinate their youth going to public schools. | 20:11 |
| Tuvix | If it was an optional vaccine, I suspect the same trend would appear as the pre-law seatbelt times, with many not wearing it. Now-days people generally don't even think about it as an option because it's one of the first things you do entering a vehicle. | 20:11 |
| Tuvix | Same thing when you have a child; the required vaccinations are just one more box to check on your way to education enrollment. | 20:12 |
| Tuvix | Some years back I got a pretty nasty gouge in my toe (right through my shoe soles) with a nail that had been exposed to the elements for several weeks. My acute wounds were largely superficial thankfully, but the clinic had me get a tetanus booster anyway due to my recent-exposure. | 20:13 |
| chowmeined | not for long :s | 20:13 |
| Tuvix | I was technically still considered in-date for my vaccine, but it was out past the 5-year point since I'd last received one and the recommendation was to re-boost the body anyway. | 20:14 |
| chowmeined | now im hearing reports of people refusing tetanus and rabies vaccine | 20:14 |
| chowmeined | its a problem of a different sort | 20:15 |
| xx | chowmeined: no way, refusing rabies vaccine post-exposure? | 20:15 |
| Tuvix | Measles too; the US was briefly at risk of loosing its erradication status as recently as 2019. | 20:15 |
| xx | I don't believe that | 20:15 |
| chowmeined | xx, https://www.npr.org/2021/09/29/1041457232/rabies-illinois-man-death-rare-public-health | 20:15 |
| xx | that's gotta be some bullshit | 20:15 |
| xx | oh died, | 20:15 |
| xx | that's fine then | 20:15 |
| chowmeined | of course he died | 20:15 |
| Tuvix | There's always been a firm collection of anti-vaxers, but they've found new ways to spread the message to new groups that don't traditionally hold that position. | 20:16 |
| xx | "... after waking up to find a bat on his neck" | 20:16 |
| xx | that's the stuff of nightmares | 20:16 |
| Tuvix | Some of that is due to social media, some of it due to varied political messages in a number of countries that are making friends with anti-vax groups for cheap political gains. | 20:16 |
| Tuvix | The irony in the US is that one of the most well-known very-right-leaning TV outlets has been pushing huge amounts of skepticism as to the effectiveness of vaccines, while at the same time all their staff are required by the business to be vaccinated. | 20:17 |
| xx | also damn I keep forgetting to renew my tetanus thing | 20:17 |
| * Tuvix suggests avoiding nails, especially ones that go a couple cm into your toe ;) | 20:17 | |
| Tuvix | I still have no idea how that did not hurt more than it did, but I guess I missed all the important bits whwen I stepped on it. So, if you do find a nail, step on it however I did! | 20:18 |
| xx | thankfully all the nails I come into contact with have not been in contact with soil | 20:18 |
| xx | same with rusty shipping crates | 20:18 |
| xx | well, containers | 20:19 |
| Tuvix | The good news is that even if your tetanus booster is a bit out of date, getting a boost even shortly after exposure can still help | 20:19 |
| xx | yeah, it would work, plus it's not like I'm immune-naive since I've had the vaccination and boosters before | 20:20 |
| Tuvix | That's not the way it works with other ailments, such as COVID infection. I've heard a number of doctors interviewed by now who tell stories of patients that want the vaccine after they end up with some more-than-mild effects of unvaccinated exposure, and they have to explain that's not have preventative vaccines work. | 20:20 |
| Tuvix | Re-using the tired seatbelt analogy, that's like trying to put your belt on after you've crashed :\ | 20:21 |
| xx | that'd be a good way to explain it | 20:21 |
| xx | anyway, I have the opportunity to go on a cargo ship trip to china that'd be 3-4 weeks on sea starting tuesday. I've been thinking about it since I'm close to the ukraine border... | 20:24 |
| xx | so if I go, I might end up seeing what the chinese are actually doing first-hand | 20:24 |
| Tuvix | You probably heard, but the UK just recently announced all its citizens who want to leave that area should do so now, while commercial transport is still an option. | 20:24 |
| xx | yeah, all those news have been making the rounds here for at least a week, people are scared | 20:25 |
| xx | well, I hope a cargo ship on sea is not a viable target for missiles in case of any large-scale world conflict | 20:25 |
| Tuvix | War Games without the "games" are indeed a lot less fun. | 20:25 |
| xx | I just hope that canal will not get stucky stucky again | 20:26 |
| xx | washing hands and general hygiene will not be perfect on the ship, nor will wearing the mask (plus there's shared air circulation for all the sleep areas) | 20:28 |
| chowmeined | how about a papr | 20:28 |
| xx | everyone gets PCR tests though before they board | 20:28 |
| chowmeined | lol | 20:28 |
| xx | I guess war would make covid irrelevant worldwide | 20:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: SARS-CoV-2 variants of public health interest: 11 February 2022 → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sqyxxp/sarscov2_variants_of_public_health_interest_11/ | 20:40 |
| oerheks | war surely influences covid stats | 20:41 |
| enyc | hrrm | 20:43 |
| LjL-Matrix | <xx> "I guess war would make covid..." <- The way war made the 1918 flu irrelevant? | 20:44 |
| enyc | for somebody clinically-vulnerable to covid-19 (diabetes, heart conditions, immunocomprimisation) who *may* need to go into hospital and won't wear traditional masks... | 20:44 |
| enyc | wondering if a P3 respirator (i.e. used for dust/gas work) with outflow valve is suitable to avoid breathing resistance to protect the wearer | 20:45 |
| de-facto | particle filters, not gas filters | 20:48 |
| xx | LjL-Matrix: really different kind of war | 20:48 |
| enyc | Well, when i've looked into it FFP3 P3 seem to be equivalent, designed to take out droplets/moisture in same way | 20:52 |
| de-facto | aerosols are either tiny liquid droplets or evaporated tiny droplets leaving particles floating around in form of droplet cores | 20:54 |
| de-facto | the air-solutions referring to the particles being to tiny that air viscosity lets them float around indefinitely (hence "solution") | 20:55 |
| de-facto | also keep in mind that many places wont accept masks that allow unfiltered exhaling | 21:02 |
| enyc | de-facto: right yes, this is the sort who has medically-issued sunflower lanyard (mask exepmtion) | 21:03 |
| de-facto | what is that? | 21:08 |
| de-facto | i dont think there is any valid medical reasoning for mask exceptions | 21:09 |
| enyc | de-facto: i don't know all the details, i've heard what you say though | 21:10 |
| enyc | heard that story elsewhere that theres foten not a realy reason | 21:10 |
| enyc | what is psychosomatic etc | 21:10 |
| enyc | I don't know all details there | 21:10 |
| de-facto | yes, one definitely has to get use to wearing masks (i had too), its just that though | 21:11 |
| de-facto | now i wear FFP3 all day long without even noticing | 21:11 |
| Timvde | When I wear an FFP2 for a couple of hours, it does hurt somewhat | 21:12 |
| de-facto | on the mask edges on the face or where does it hurt? | 21:13 |
| de-facto | i use 3M 9330, they have that comfy foam around the nose | 21:14 |
| de-facto | sometimes i also wear the cheap (K)N95 style ones, but since their straps go behind the ears those do hurt after few hours | 21:17 |
| de-facto | the ones with the straps around the head do not have that problem | 21:17 |
| Timvde | de-facto: on the ears and on the nose | 21:18 |
| Timvde | Well, not on the ears :P | 21:18 |
| Timvde | but you know what I mean | 21:18 |
| de-facto | yeah i know, exactly the reason why i choose the masks with the straps around the head and the foam around the nose (plus they do have an airtight edge that way) | 21:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Mutations that adapt SARS-CoV-2 to mink or ferret do not increase fitness in the human airway → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/sqzxsn/mutations_that_adapt_sarscov2_to_mink_or_ferret/ | 21:47 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +120752 cases, +162 deaths since 23 hours ago | 22:00 |
| Tuvix | The long-term reuse mask I have (TPU rubber mould w/ replacable filters) had a nice accessory I picked up that's now standard with cloth straps to adjust the around-the-head fit using one of those push-button plastic tensioners. | 22:05 |
| Tuvix | The old version had velcro for the lower-straps behind-the-head, and then just a cloth elastic band, and with repeated use the velcro became very worn. Plus the cloth covering, while not function for the filtering process, has a nicer visual look which I slightly prefer. | 22:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Josiah 'So Mild' Grindrod (@JT_Grindrod): The person that sees the tiger and goes to pet it wouldn't be called brave, they'd be called a fool.Unfortunately sars-cov-2 isn't a large cat and is, in fact, invisible, so the people who want you working will try to convince you that healthy [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/JT_Grindrod/status/1492609372509200384 | 22:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): How fitting. On the day the Norw govt announces it's "time to live more normal lives" & remove all restrictions - we hear Recombinant Omicron + Delta emerges in the UK.Not that we know if it will spread,or lead to serious disease. Still not the best news. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1492611252471963658 | 22:35 |
| LjL | https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sr0x7g/next_covid_strain_could_kill_many_more_warn/hwp4697/?context=3 this is how blind people can be to something that has decimated our population throughout history... | 22:56 |
| xx | it's very unlikely it will mutate into something that'd kill a significant number of taxpayers and consumers, so no gov cares | 23:01 |
| LjL | maybe, but that's not my point | 23:03 |
| LjL | my point is that someone can actually use a disease that has decimated us for millennia like the flu as an example of "hey, it doesn't have to be a big deal" | 23:03 |
| LjL | right now the *best* scenario is that COVID will eventually overlay itself onto the flu and become an additional flu-like illness with a similar deathcount as the flu (again, best scenario, right now the count is higher) | 23:04 |
| xx | what meaning of 'decimate' do you use? Reduce world population by 10%, or reduce it to 10%? | 23:04 |
| LjL | by 10%, and over time | 23:04 |
| LjL | i'm saying that the flu is a pretty big deal | 23:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from ##covid-19 Zotero group: Mutations that adapt SARS-CoV-2 to mink or ferret do not increase fitness in the human airway: Type Journal Article Author Jie Zhou Author Thomas P. Peacock Author Jonathan C. Brown Author Daniel H. Goldhill Author Ahmed M. E. Elrefaey Author Rebekah Penrice-Randal Author Vanessa M. [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/CZIX3HNQ | 23:04 |
| LjL | find me someone who hasn't heart about the flu | 23:05 |
| LjL | find someone who hasn't had it or thinks they haven't had it | 23:05 |
| xx | I can find you a lot of people who don't know what the flu actually is and instead call every sniffle a flu | 23:05 |
| LjL | then find someone who doesn't know how many people it kills a year - whoops, that probably does raise hands | 23:05 |
| LjL | sure | 23:05 |
| LjL | but if anything that shows how powerful it is, it's so much of a universal threat that people use the term to refer to other things too | 23:06 |
| xx | btw not even the spanish flu reduced world population by 10% | 23:06 |
| LjL | so you asked a trick question | 23:07 |
| xx | did I? | 23:07 |
| LjL | yes, you gave me only two options, and i picked the closer one | 23:07 |
| xx | I'm more comparing it to stuff like the plague that killed off >50% of population in europe | 23:07 |
| LjL | fair | 23:07 |
| LjL | the plague is pretty famous too | 23:07 |
| xx | like sure, flu is bad, but it's not something that'd *decimate* humanity | 23:07 |
| LjL | the plague doesn't "decimate" humanity if we're looking at exact percentages either because it kills many more than 10% :P | 23:08 |
| xx | heh, right | 23:09 |
| LjL | i think most things in nature don't give a damn about our decimal system | 23:09 |
| xx | most things in nature probably can't even count to 10 | 23:09 |
| LjL | so if my term was overspecific, i take it back and you can replace it with "it's a pretty darned big deal and i'm too banned from worldnews to point that out" | 23:09 |
| LjL | i can with the help of my fingers | 23:10 |
| xx | SARS-1 had a CFR 11% | 23:11 |
| xx | pretty close to 10% | 23:11 |
| Tuvix | Half your fingers? I can count from zero to 31 with a single hand ;) | 23:13 |
| xx | Tuvix: if you have flexible fingers, you can even use ternary | 23:13 |
| Tuvix | Far too messy, and my technical background is far more familiar with powers of 2 than 3. | 23:13 |
| Tuvix | Text in corner of this comic is quite relevant: https://xkcd.com/1000 | 23:14 |
| xx | https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/deadly-diseases-infectious-world-ranked/ | 23:18 |
| xx | looking at the numbers, humans are a difficult bunch to kill off by disease | 23:18 |
| xx | probably that's partly why humans managed to survive this long and mutiply to such numbers | 23:18 |
| Tuvix | Worked well for the dinosaurs, prior to a rather well-known timeline-ending event (discounting crocodiles, naturally) | 23:20 |
| xx | also, fuck bats, little flying disease-ridden vermin | 23:21 |
| xx | basically rats with wings | 23:21 |
| xx | many bat things on that list | 23:21 |
| LjL | my fingers aren't individually motile enough to count in binary | 23:24 |
| LjL | xx, the way they carry disease is quite unlike rats, although the "with wings" part hits it | 23:25 |
| LjL | but also it's not exactly their fault | 23:25 |
| LjL | i'm sure they'd prefer viruses to attack rats without wings | 23:25 |
| xx | all I'm saying is that I haven't heard of a dodo bird causing any human disease in 2020 | 23:29 |
| xx | "More than 99% of all species that ever lived on Earth, amounting to over five billion species,[1] are estimated to have died out.[2][3][4][5]" from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction | 23:31 |
| xx | had bats been on that list, we wouldn't have covid | 23:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Multiple Early Factors Anticipate Post-Acute COVID-19 Sequelae → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sr2v4v/multiple_early_factors_anticipate_postacute/ | 23:43 |
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