| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +30292 cases, +257 deaths since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +70465 cases, +13 deaths since 22 hours ago — Germany: +122 deaths since 23 hours ago | 00:05 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): My review of the extensive body of data on Prior Covid erictopol.substack.com/p/ground-truth… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492635168531570688 | 00:12 |
| LjL | xx, had bats not been on that list maybe they wouldn't have eaten enough mosquitoes and some mosquito-borne disease would have had so many more hosts to spread that it would have become worse than COVID maybe | 01:17 |
| LjL | ifs are iffy | 01:17 |
| xx | LjL: put mosquitos on the list too, and ticks, and pigs, and chicken, ... | 01:32 |
| LjL | sure, i see where you're going | 01:32 |
| LjL | same place you always are | 01:32 |
| xx | not really | 01:32 |
| xx | just saying that there are known vectors for diseases that affect humans | 01:32 |
| LjL | so are | 01:32 |
| LjL | *drumroll* | 01:32 |
| xx | and that we have the ability to deal with it | 01:32 |
| xx | over a 1000 species go extinct every year | 01:33 |
| xx | so what's 1 extra species of mosquito? | 01:33 |
| LjL | xx, is that with or without accounting for the absurdly increased extinction rate we're causing | 01:33 |
| xx | species have been dying out at massive rates even before humans came along, it's hard to calculate | 01:34 |
| xx | environment changes, species either adapts or dies out | 01:34 |
| xx | right now we're artificially keeping 60% of the worlds mammals alive (that's just the domesticated animals, together with humans that'd be 96% of mammals) | 01:35 |
| xx | and the spanish flu came from a pig farm in usa, right? | 01:35 |
| LjL | and yet, when we've made species extinct often by doing grossly dumb things like introducing alien species to solve a problem while really making it worse, ... i forgot what i was going to say | 01:35 |
| xx | you were going to say humans, but I specifically avoided that | 01:36 |
| LjL | no i wasn't | 01:36 |
| LjL | i was going to leave that at *drumroll* | 01:36 |
| xx | oh | 01:36 |
| LjL | here i wanted to make some other point but i forgot | 01:36 |
| LjL | while typing it | 01:36 |
| LjL | meanwhile i'm seeing news of "freedom convoys" all over the place in the worldnews ticker | 01:37 |
| LjL | france, somewhere (else?) in the US | 01:37 |
| xx | well, there's a scheduled "freedom convoy" of military forces through a few central european countries towards ukraine border | 01:38 |
| xx | "for a routine military training" | 01:38 |
| LjL | heh | 01:38 |
| LjL | no i think these are COVID ones | 01:39 |
| xx | let's hope they observe at least some covid restrictins instead of spreading some new variant throughout its path | 01:39 |
| xx | soldiers have a habit of interacting with local folk... | 01:39 |
| LjL | the Phi as in Phreedom variant | 01:39 |
| xx | used to be syphillis, now it's corona | 01:39 |
| xx | hmm | 01:39 |
| xx | coronaphillis? | 01:39 |
| dTal | I've got an idea let's kill everyone | 01:40 |
| xx | not very peaceful | 01:40 |
| dTal | voluntarily | 01:41 |
| xx | well, we'll see how it goes in the coming week, everyone who remains after being informed by their govs to leave the area can now no longer be considered a non-combatant | 01:42 |
| xx | so it's voluntary I guess | 01:42 |
| xx | if there's a flood of refugees, I doubt any covid restrictions will be observed | 01:43 |
| xx | plus stuff like tuberculosis is endemic in ukraine | 01:43 |
| xx | talking of TB, I wonder how those BCG vaccine trials on its effect on covid went | 01:45 |
| xx | was one of the first trials related to covid | 01:45 |
| xx | but haven't heard anything in ages | 01:45 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +6359 cases since 21 hours ago — France: +10 cases since 4 hours ago | 02:04 |
| xx | +10? | 02:04 |
| LjL | since 4 hours ago, so probably a weird non-daily update | 02:06 |
| LjL | France has terrible data all in all | 02:06 |
| LjL | although i'm not entirely sure Brainstorm is *supposed* to report something like +10... | 02:06 |
| LjL | there is definitely "logic" to only report things that seem to be an up trend | 02:07 |
| LjL | and by logic i mean really bad code | 02:07 |
| xx | even +10 in 4 hours would be weird if that was an actual statement | 02:08 |
| xx | because that'd be +60 in 24 hours, and that's just not possible under normal circumstances for a country like france | 02:08 |
| LjL | hmm there seems to be a True where a False should be | 02:09 |
| LjL | who knows why i changed that, i'd need some kind of system to control versions | 02:09 |
| LjL | if only anyone had invented something like that | 02:09 |
| LjL | xx, ask Covidly, that's where i err actually i'm totally not authorized to get my data from there so i don't, but, ask Covidly anyway, just in case | 02:10 |
| xx | they'd probably first need to be a skilled os kernel developer in order to create a version control system | 02:10 |
| LjL | and to pull that sort of thing off while people are likely moaning and whining about things being bad with the unversioned OS, they'd need to be a bit of a git | 02:11 |
| xx | on more positive news, coronavirus is unlikely to survive 6000 degree temperature (but I can't provide a citation for that) | 02:13 |
| LjL | uh | 02:22 |
| LjL | i'm not entirely sure why you're mentioning that | 02:22 |
| LjL | oh look | 02:25 |
| LjL | %title https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60362274 have we found the pretext? | 02:25 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.bbc.com: Ukraine tensions: After eight years of war, an eastern city unifies against Russia - BBC News | 02:25 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i'm being asked <CloudEvil> Is anyone aware of a source giving deaths per 100K unvaccinated? [for the US and/or UK] | 02:37 |
| LjL | or rather they're asking in ##coronavirus | 02:37 |
| LjL | i thought you may possibly help since you know your ways through all sorts of CDC graphs | 02:37 |
| de-facto | Tuvix, where did you find those graphs of fatality rate comparisons for vaccinated and unvaccinated per age group again? | 02:38 |
| LjL | lol | 02:39 |
| de-facto | heh | 02:40 |
| xx | LjL: I'm mentioning that for the same reason I'm currently looking at coronavirus destruction through radiation | 02:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: UK investigates COVID variant combining Delta, Omicron → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/sr5hya/uk_investigates_covid_variant_combining_delta/ | 02:44 |
| de-facto | .title https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12985-022-01754-w | 02:45 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From virologyj.biomedcentral.com: A UV-LED module that is highly effective at inactivating human coronaviruses and HIV-1 | Virology Journal | Full Text | 02:45 |
| de-facto | btw the smaller the biological structure the more radiation is required to destroy it | 02:51 |
| de-facto | with light it stays at the surface though, it even can be designed to deposit most energy in the first layer (of the skin or liquid), e.g. by using 222nm | 02:52 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67211-2 | 02:54 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: Far-UVC light (222 nm) efficiently and safely inactivates airborne human coronaviruses | Scientific Reports | 02:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Hong Kong: +1514 cases, +3 deaths since a day ago | 03:00 |
| Tuvix | LjL && de-facto: The vax/unvaxed deaths in the US are from the somewhat-laggy (several months back due to reporting timelines) here: https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-COVID-19-Cases-or-Deaths-by-Age-Group-and/3rge-nu2a | 03:36 |
| Tuvix | That's more behind than the weekly-update (and only "1 to 8 weeks" delay) on the deaths broken down by state/age/sex that I also use, but that dataset doesn't have vaccination status. | 03:37 |
| de-facto | so you used that one for your graphs per age group on imgur? | 03:47 |
| Tuvix | Oh, the one with the multi-column groupings by age-groups by month? That one didn't plot vaccination status. | 03:50 |
| Tuvix | That one uses: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex-and-Age/9bhg-hcku | 03:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Prior COVID infection more protective than vaccination during Delta surge - CDC study → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/sr81c6/prior_covid_infection_more_protective_than/ | 03:51 |
| Tuvix | That most recent link I posted is what I used to produce these: https://imgur.com/pgrt7d1 && https://imgur.com/a/5KLFM3I | 03:52 |
| de-facto | thanks i forwarded it | 04:11 |
| de-facto | we probably have to wait a bit further for getting Omicron datasets about this | 04:12 |
| Tuvix | Yea, it's even only *just* barely early enough for the weekly updated data-set to be usefup. | 04:13 |
| Tuvix | If you want to gauge how accurate the weekly-update of deaths (broken down by state+age+sex) be sure to cross-reference it against the higher-level CDC data, because that will let you figure out roughly how many deaths aren't reported for the time-range you're looking at | 04:14 |
| Tuvix | For example, the latest weekly update, Feb-09, was about 14% short for Jan, but that was with the addition of over 10k deaths that weren't there in the Feb-02 update (and still missing about 8.6k by my calculation a few days ago) | 04:14 |
| Tuvix | Maybe I should author a short blog or post somewhere that shows how to use some of this to produce at least basic graphs and their known missing data percentage. | 04:24 |
| Tuvix | Others might find it useful. | 04:24 |
| de-facto | yes for sure, its an often asked question (the vaccination impact on fatality) | 04:34 |
| de-facto | i just wish we would have more realtime data on this | 04:34 |
| de-facto | as well as contributions from VoCs | 04:35 |
| Tuvix | Yea, I'm really disappointed how laggy the monthly-update data-set I linked is. | 04:36 |
| Tuvix | It's 2 to 3 months (depending on when the death you care about was reported relative to the reporting period, nevermind when it occurred which could be some weeks earlier than reporting) | 04:36 |
| Tuvix | 2 to 3 monthd delayed that is, *plus* death-to-reporting delay. | 04:37 |
| Tuvix | This said, I suppose better to be slightly delayed and reasonably accurate, so I shouldn't complain too much now :P | 04:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): US Covid hospitalizations have dropped nearly 50% in less than a month, now at 85,000 pic.twitter.com/AUVXi8HL1v → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492702276988772353 | 04:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): The BA.2 Omicron variant is increasing in prevalence slowly in both CDC and private data. While it may become a dominant strain in time, it appears increasingly unlikely that it will cause a significant change in the downward trajectory of the [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1492707461052211200 | 04:58 |
| de-facto | Tuvix, found vaccination efficacy endpoint data as time series for Germany https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Inzidenz_Impfstatus.html | 05:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 866: EV antibodies rEVolutionize our thinking: Amy returns to TWiV to discuss her work on the identification of cross-reactive antibody responses among diverse enteroviruses, and the implications for our understanding of viral pathogenesis and seroprevalence studies. → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-866/ | 06:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Krasnoyarsk, Russia: +8192 cases, +27 deaths since a day ago — Novosibirsk, Russia: +5122 cases, +11 deaths since a day ago — Sabah, Malaysia: +4107 cases, +1 deaths since a day ago — Germany: +110456 cases since 16 hours ago | 07:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Omicron infections may not protect well against future spread: "an Omicron infection isn't going to give them much protection against a future variant that isn't Omicron-like," Moore said. "It's not nothing, but it [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/srcaer/omicron_infections_may_not_protect_well_against/ | 07:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Cambodia: +401 cases since a day ago | 08:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: COVID-19 can affect the heart → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/srchvk/covid19_can_affect_the_heart/ | 08:18 |
| * enyc meows | 08:37 | |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 13, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/srdksk/daily_discussion_thread_february_13_2022/ | 09:05 |
| * enyc ROARs | 09:10 | |
| * enyc ponders where omicron new variant going now | 09:10 | |
| Tuvix | Into nearly the peak daily level of graves due to COVID in a year, at least by US levels… | 09:13 |
| Tuvix | Elsewhere too, to be sure, some of which will, in some weeks, be going into new graves yet to be identified. | 09:14 |
| Tuvix | The bigger question isn't about Omicron, but that-which-comes-after-it | 09:16 |
| enyc | Tuvix: hrrm, and how our transport, buildings, etc... changed for ventilation and public health etc | 09:28 |
| Tuvix | Less has changed than you might suspect. | 09:28 |
| Tuvix | Fundamental changes useful to things like air-exchange, *especially* in light of the far higher transmission rates of Delta and then again with Omicron aren't even close to being compatible with buildings not explicitly designed for the kind of high-rate air-exchange required. | 09:29 |
| enyc | hrrm | 09:30 |
| enyc | I didn't suspect much has changed fwiw | 09:30 |
| Tuvix | More or less, little short of hospitals designed explicitly with negative-air-flow rooms are really "safe", and the rest is a matter of how less-bad than such a room really is. | 09:30 |
| enyc | but wondered what can or should be done | 09:30 |
| Tuvix | Well, that's sort of the wrong question, if you ask me. From a US-perspective, the single biggesting then we (I'm there, for context) could so is improve vaccination rates. | 09:31 |
| enyc | Tuvix: hrrm i'm in UK which had had good vaccination rates, though overtaken somewhat in europe lately aiui | 09:31 |
| enyc | USA healthcare mess, hrrm | 09:32 |
| Tuvix | The rest is good too, don't get me wrong, but airflow and masking and what-have-you won't do as much as not being the globe's worst (or at least very-near-to-worst) 1st world country in vaccination. | 09:32 |
| Tuvix | Sure, UK doesn't match up necessarily as well compared to a lot of the other EU countries, but you started doing far better than the US in metrics starting pre-Delta waves. | 09:32 |
| Tuvix | Have you seen some of my linked OWID graphs comparing US vs. UK the past couple of weeks? Our 2 nations were pretty competitive in outcomes, both cases and deaths, until recently. | 09:33 |
| Tuvix | Your side of the pond, you've done *far* better both in Delta last summer, and now during Omicron than the US has done :\ | 09:33 |
| Tuvix | So as bad as things may seem there, just realize your ICUs and graves could be worse: they could look per-capita like ours :( | 09:34 |
| enyc | i see | 09:35 |
| Tuvix | Hang on a sec, I have some pretty telling US v. UK graphs on my desktop, I'll link you 2 charts that tell a pretty stark tale. | 09:35 |
| enyc | by all means =) | 09:35 |
| * enyc meows AimHere | 09:37 | |
| Tuvix | So, this first graph shows the pre-Omicron surges, including last winter's (Alpha, both countries) outcomes including vaccines, cases, ICU usage, and deaths: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2020-09-19..2021-11-09&Metric=Vaccine+doses%2C+cases%2C+ICU+patients%2C+and+deaths&country=USA~GBR | 09:38 |
| Tuvix | A couple things to note here: similar cases, but the UK experienced more death; despite that, the UK had _fewer_ ICU capacity, and a fairly similar rate of vaccination uptake, although moved ahead of the US starting just before June, 2021 | 09:39 |
| enyc | why does USA have much lower new cases per 1M now on those graphs? | 09:40 |
| Tuvix | However, mid-summer, 2021, things changed between the UK, in a way that's been sustained ever since. reference this chart: | 09:40 |
| Tuvix | https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2021-06-15..latest&Metric=Vaccine+doses%2C+cases%2C+ICU+patients%2C+and+deaths&country=USA~GBR | 09:40 |
| Tuvix | enyc: Hang on, I'll answer your case-question in a moment. | 09:40 |
| enyc | ok | 09:41 |
| Tuvix | So, that 2nd link, that excludes the earlier wave (because in the UK it skews the high-water mark of death, which, yes, was bad) and it shows a stark change; it shows the UK doing notably better, consistently, in vaccinations starting mid-summer 2021. Further, notice how the UK ICUs were not slammed Delta + Omicron, as the US was. Also note that the US saw more death *all* the pre-Delta, Delta, and | 09:42 |
| Tuvix | Omicron time, despite similar case incidence. | 09:42 |
| enyc | i need to get my c0ffee and get up and re-eread to process proerly tbh =) | 09:42 |
| enyc | brb =) | 09:42 |
| Tuvix | Starting around the onset of Delta, the US began to have an all-pandemic turn for the worse with deaths; that was the point at which the US started to be consistently worse than the UK in _total_ deaths as expressed as a percentage of the population. | 09:43 |
| Tuvix | (take your time with coffee, I'll make some decaf green tea before bed, which I'm quite late for being quite a bit West of you ;) | 09:43 |
| enyc | Tuvix: nibbling away and C0FFEE'ing now. .. while im doing that.. lpease explain what you can about -- omicron fortunately creating some sort of herd-immunity, or not, etc etc | 09:51 |
| Tuvix | Okay, tea is steeping; the cases are overally similar between countries, at least when compared to other places (Canada, Australia, Italy, and so on.) | 09:52 |
| Tuvix | The Uk having more cases-per-1M could either be due to testing differences, or perhaps a fairly accurate reflection of more case-incidence in the Uk despite better outcomes; give your higher vaccination rate and more generally-applied (and followed!) restrictions, as lax as they are there, are all better than we're doing here in the US, by all those metrics. | 09:53 |
| enyc | Tuvix: not to forget health differences -- how many in USA are obese diabetic inactive etc...? | 09:53 |
| Tuvix | That's part of it, but comorbidities and the immunocompromised (eg: active cancer-patients, etc) are much smaller in number compared to the willingly unvaccinated but otherwise normally-healthy bunch. | 09:54 |
| Tuvix | Try not to look at any one of these factors and point to that *one* as the magic bullet that could have changed outcomes. | 09:56 |
| Tuvix | It's all a facttor in a complex puzzle; consider the differences I pointed to in an otherwise pretty neck-and-neck race between our modern countries. | 09:56 |
| Tuvix | By mid-2021, the UK had more restrictions; sure, they weren't as strict as some of their EU neighbors, but they were a lot more than over here, while in the US mid-2021 we basically removed all restrictions and turned any weak limits we had into nothing more than "suggestions" and "guidance" (those quotes are how our own government explained them.) | 09:57 |
| enyc | hrrrrrrrrrm | 09:57 |
| enyc | i see | 09:57 |
| Tuvix | Also, at the same time, the UK was seeing more voluntary vaccination uptake, and a bit more respect for the rules, at least going by what public reports I have from both countries. Also, likely better masking complinace, and so on. | 09:58 |
| enyc | yes | 09:58 |
| Tuvix | All these factors, individually, are less useful than the *combination* of them. | 09:58 |
| enyc | yes | 09:58 |
| Tuvix | Vaccines plus some government rules plus a population more willing to do the right thing for their fellow neighbor (who may be less well-off than you, or more at-ris, etc.) are all part of how we keep each other safe. | 09:58 |
| Tuvix | Which "one" was the key? Well, they all were. Perhpas vaccines more than any, but that's also not the magic solution, by itself. | 09:59 |
| enyc | hrrm I wonder what this will do to public-health and improving ongoing sick buildings etc etce tec | 10:00 |
| Tuvix | perhaps, although both our healthcare systems had issue pre-pandmic times. | 10:00 |
| enyc | huge controversies in UK with private contract test-and-trace, covid test contracts, ..... | 10:00 |
| Tuvix | NHS and the US healthcare system alike suffered from staffing and talent shortages, especially in nursing, among other issues. | 10:00 |
| enyc | Tuvix: well yes, and "inequality" (long story) unto itself! | 10:01 |
| Tuvix | Indeed; here we've still got *major* differences in vaccine uptake in minority groups vs. non-minoroties. | 10:01 |
| enyc | though covid (and brexit...) have bought lots of issues to the foreground | 10:01 |
| Tuvix | It's gotten better, but our differences are often very regional given the varied social, political, and economic status across our states. | 10:01 |
| enyc | Tuvix: so...... not sure I got a .. whats' going on with high cases in UK lately, comparatively? | 10:02 |
| enyc | ahead of the times with omicron variants? | 10:02 |
| Tuvix | Yup; the real question is if we'll remember the lessons from this pandemic, or if in 2, 5, or 20 years we'll have forgotten them. | 10:02 |
| Tuvix | So, the cases may have in part been changes in testing and reporting more than anything, but it's also possible factors like the smaller size of the UK played a roll, such that in the UK with less land-mass the virus was able to move faster than in the US, where we tend to have *multiple* waves hitting the country at different times, often weeks-apart. | 10:03 |
| enyc | hrrm | 10:04 |
| Tuvix | For example, right now many of our early-hit states, especially in the Northeast region, have been seeing declining cases for a couple weeks now, but our more central/southern/rural states are only just *now* hitting their case peak. | 10:04 |
| enyc | right yes | 10:04 |
| * enyc wonders how bible-belt etc. etc. correlates to covid differences | 10:04 | |
| Tuvix | Overall the US has seen a massive case decline recently, but if you're in an area only now hitting the peak, things are still bad, hospitals full, and deaths still going up. | 10:04 |
| Tuvix | Counties (sub-divisions of our states) that voted conservative have a marked decline in successful COVID outcomes; there's a pretty big political divide, which genrally maps onto what many call the bible-belt states. | 10:06 |
| Tuvix | Much of that isn't really suprising, given what political leaders on each side of our 2-party system have been saying publicly. | 10:06 |
| Tuvix | That's all really a shame too, since most of the political leaders at the national level are in fact vaccinated, but then they get on national TV or wherever else and throw doubt onto the vaccines. It's frankly hard to take a candidate seriously who is vaccinated, then goes on TV/radio/whatever to question the effectiveness of vaccines. | 10:07 |
| Tuvix | (not to take away from the UK's political issues, with the whole politics party business…) | 10:07 |
| Tuvix | Plenty of blame to go around for today's politicians! | 10:08 |
| enyc | Tuvix: hrrm so... conservative and so-on are more likely to be anti-vax or hesistant and not get vaxxed and not work with restrictions or otherwise ?? | 10:09 |
| Tuvix | Oh, one more note about the charts I linked; in the 2nd (Omicron-included) one, note how, while the UK is still doing better in deaths recently, the uptick is still notable. Not as bad as the US, but still a bit more than Delta, but quite a bit if you consider the peak levels. | 10:09 |
| Tuvix | enyc: Yes, absolutely. Counties (again, sub-divisions politicaly of our states) that voted conservative (ie: Trump) by a wide-enough margin were statistically less-vaccinated. | 10:10 |
| Tuvix | I've even got contacts across the country that have told me, in more rural areas, you can "spot" the political difference based on pandemic habbits. For example, in some rural areas, it's almost a game in public venues to "spot the liberal voter" by seeing who comes in with a mask. | 10:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Omicron BA.2 Sub-Variant Close to 100% Dominant in South Africa → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/srek7p/omicron_ba2_subvariant_close_to_100_dominant_in/ | 10:11 |
| Tuvix | ie: mask = liberal voter. Why protecting yourself agianst a disease that spreads so easily is a political divide is another question entiernly, but it's almost become a form of personal identity, not politics. | 10:11 |
| Tuvix | It's not like wearing a seatbelt in your car defines you as a liberal vs. conservative voter, but masks somehow *do*. It's very odd if you ask me. | 10:12 |
| Tuvix | I'm sure the UK has some of that, Torries. vs. Labour, but it's really a lot worse in the US in terms of the pandemic correlations. | 10:13 |
| Tuvix | Tories* | 10:13 |
| enyc | Tuvix: I was going to say, I wonder... how covid etc. bringing *political* issues to fore more than before | 10:14 |
| Tuvix | A lot of that is Trump. | 10:14 |
| Tuvix | Sure, Jonhson has some of that attitude, but our former-president really played that line hard as a way to make his voters mad and angry in order to get them to follow him. | 10:15 |
| enyc | and storm buildings and stuff ;o | 10:15 |
| enyc | lolitical infighting "isjohnsondoneyet" etc ;/ | 10:15 |
| Tuvix | Your country is made about some parties; our former leader more or less incited a riot on our country's congressional building to officially declare an election winner and has not (yet…) been held accountable for it. | 10:17 |
| Tuvix | is mad* | 10:17 |
| Tuvix | So, there's hope for England yet ;) | 10:17 |
| Tuvix | "God save the Queen"? We don't need no stinkin' Queen; we have Trump /s /s | 10:18 |
| enyc | lol | 10:18 |
| Tuvix | But yea, my point in all the jibes is really that pandemic response *ought* to be isolated from politics, but apparently isn't. | 10:18 |
| enyc | similar point about brexit, too politicized | 10:20 |
| Tuvix | I saw some early news reporting in the days just after the Brexit vote, and some had stated, on camera to reporters, that if they'd known Cameron was going to resign after, they wouldn't have voted for it. | 10:21 |
| enyc | cameron did 'reccomend' that we remain in eu | 10:21 |
| Tuvix | I have no idea if they just didn't realize that the leader of a political wing who lost a major policy vote couldn't really stay in office, or if they didn't understand the dynamics at work, but that seems a silly thing to say after the fact. | 10:22 |
| Tuvix | Of course, despite my own personal feelings about that, we put Trump into power just months after that, so it's hard for me to say the UK did anything worse than we did… | 10:22 |
| Tuvix | And, what is Brexit, exactly? All I know is that 'Brexit means Brexit' … whatever *that* means :P | 10:23 |
| Tuvix | I'm not sure any of that is directly related to the pandemic outcomes, but the parties and issues the leading party has keeping government together now seem to be at least partly related to the policy decisions in a larger sense. | 10:24 |
| enyc | interesting view was that voters just wanted "a change" in country with this inequity etc | 10:24 |
| Tuvix | Sure, Jonhson did a lot of the same things Trump did; played to the voter's concerns that they (as an individual voter) were "falling behind" and the country was "changing without them" and all the usual self-serving rhetoric. Both came in as kind of a traditionalist, hard-line strong-man. | 10:26 |
| Tuvix | If only we'd all partied as hard as the UK PM did during lockdowns that prohibited it. | 10:26 |
| Tuvix | I'm sure that would have fixed the pandemic. | 10:27 |
| darsie | Brexit is the British exit from the EU. | 10:27 |
| Tuvix | But whatever, I can't fix other people refusing to play by the rules; I can follow the science places like here with a bot that feeds us (usually) relevant information, and discuss actual science most of the time. | 10:27 |
| Tuvix | darsie: Ostensibly, yes, but the real question is what replaces it; concerns over how to deal with all the bi/multi-latteral deals that are removed by no longer being an EU member weren't really (read: at all) spelled out by the vote that was held. | 10:28 |
| Tuvix | That was May's point, in part, although her famous quote doesn't really answer the question about what it is. | 10:29 |
| Tuvix | In fact, May only told us what it isn't; it is no longer membership in the EU, as you just referenced. | 10:29 |
| Tuvix | All this said, the EU still has varied pandemic response as well, and differnet outcomes if you compare the member states within EU (and I'll broadly include the UK conceptually here) borders. | 10:30 |
| Tuvix | In a way, the response isn't all that dislike the US, with each of our states (and sometimes cities/counties) establishing rules different from the rather limited/weak national rules we have here. | 10:34 |
| Tuvix | Where I am, I don't think I've ever been _legally_ disallowed from doing something as horrible as knowingly going somewhere with other people, indoors (eg: dining, shopping, drinking at a bar, etc) even if I'd knowingly tested positive that very day or days before. | 10:35 |
| Tuvix | It's obviously against guidance and recommendations, but that's all they've ever been. | 10:35 |
| enyc | Tuvix: I wonder what these messes in combination will cause for next election/vote etc | 10:48 |
| enyc | Tuvix: trump-2024, conservatives etc etc | 10:48 |
| pwr22 | <Tuvix> "Your country is made about..." <- I hear that some of the right wing media has retconned the Capital Riots into citizens exercising their peaceful right to protest? 😛 | 11:17 |
| pwr22 | Even Trump Jr. was caught on record saying that his dad needed to stop that shit when it was going down | 11:19 |
| pwr22 | But maybe they will pull off the propaganda since Trump and Boris have shown the world clearly that three men make a tiger | 11:19 |
| pwr22 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_men_make_a_tiger | 11:19 |
| pwr22 | .title | 11:19 |
| Brainstorm | pwr22: From en.wikipedia.org: Three men make a tiger - Wikipedia | 11:19 |
| pwr22 | <Tuvix> "ie: mask = liberal voter. Why..." <- If you go back to shortly after seat belts were introduced I think you might fight there was an association that ran somewhat along political lines though 🤔 | 11:25 |
| pwr22 | s/fight/find/ | 11:27 |
| enyc | =) | 12:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Scientists carry greater credibility than spiritual gurus. Regardless of one's worldview, science is seen worldwide as a powerful indicator of the reliability of information. In these times when there is a lot of talk about scepticism with regard to, for [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/srgd4j/scientists_carry_greater_credibility_than/ | 12:26 |
| Timvde | pwr22: yes, I remember little me not wanting to wear a seatbelt and using the argument "if we get in a collision, I can jump out and be safe!". I realized the stupidity of that argument when I was about 10, though... | 12:43 |
| pwr22 | P | 12:55 |
| pwr22 | * 😛 | 12:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: nature (@Nature): Heart-disease risk soars after COVID — even with a mild case go.nature.com/3GKAwPm → https://twitter.com/Nature/status/1492830318688153605 | 13:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: BA.2 variant is ‘our fourth rodeo,’ could dominate US next month, says doctor: “So far in the pandemic, everything we've been doing is always sandbagging after the flood dries. Always boarding up the windows when the hurricane eye [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/srig4y/ba2_variant_is_our_fourth_rodeo_could_dominate_us/ | 15:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Hong Kong reports 1,347 COVID cases as healthcare system overwhelmed → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/srjtem/hong_kong_reports_1347_covid_cases_as_healthcare/ | 15:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "The pandemic is like a hostile, hygiene-challenged house guest who refused to leave."washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/… pic.twitter.com/RJdW98fldC → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492886640284422144 | 16:45 |
| xx | ^ so... trespassing? Guns to the rescue! | 16:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Carol Ross Joynt (@caroljoynt): .@ScottGottliebMD will have more on the new #omicron #variant, shortly on @FaceTheNation with @margbrennan twitter.com/scottgottliebm… → https://twitter.com/caroljoynt/status/1492887287289556997 | 16:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Brussels braces for ‘freedom convoy’ protesting coronavirus restrictions: Police have banned some vehicles from entering the city until Tuesday in an attempt to stop protests against COVID restrictions. → https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-protest-freedom-convoy-brussels/ | 17:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Sunday 13 February 2022 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/srm093/sunday_13_february_2022_update/ | 17:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Lee Stewart (@tapas321): @fact_covid And by specimen date even lower, even with upward adjustments.It'll be the lowest date by specimen since 5th December with sharp decrease in all age groups. pic.twitter.com/BJaTFkfhkV → https://twitter.com/tapas321/status/1492897802510290947 | 17:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): Of the 11.4 million covid cases diagnosed in children, 1.6 million have been in those under 5. About 30% of all the diagnosed cases were in Jan Omicron wave.Tragically, children under 5 represent 15% of all diagnosed cases, but about 35% of [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1492906435671384066 | 18:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation): Why did the FDA delay authorization of Pfizer's vaccine for kids under 5? @ScottGottliebMD says "there were no safety issues," but Pfizer presented additional cases that "changed the FDA's perception of the absolute efficacy of the vaccine" based on the [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1492908774343983107 | 18:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): There is unequivocal synergy of hybrid immunity (combined Prior Covid and 1 or more vaccine doses) in more than 25 studies pre-Omicron, and several with Omicron, for the augmented immune response /10 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492912128612732929 | 18:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The CDC should reboot its "vaccination card" to a digital "immunity certificate" and give credit to confirmed Prior Covid, that is equivalent to at least a 1-dose vaccine /11 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492912130093244418 | 18:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: us: How Different Phases of the Pandemic Influenced Behavior, HIV Testing, and PrEP Starts → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/how-different-phases-of-the-pandemic-influenced-behavior-hiv-testing-and-prep-starts | 18:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A new review of erectile dysfunction from Covidnature.com/articles/s4144… pic.twitter.com/rZIlTbmn5A → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492922935044042752 | 19:09 |
| xx | ^ "I'm sorry, it's not you, it's covid", right... | 19:09 |
| imaginary | hahaha | 19:11 |
| imaginary | seriously though, that's some real darwinian shit | 19:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Il Sole 24 Ore: Nei laboratori dell’Iss si lavora al super-vaccino italiano contro tutte le varianti: Il bersaglio del siero è la proteina «N» che al contrario della più nota spike coinvolta nello sviluppo degli attuali vaccini non mostra [... want %more?] → https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/nei-laboratori-dell-iss-si-lavora-super-vaccino-italiano-contro-tutte-varianti-AElQYrDB | 19:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): I meant to add this report (it's in the full post) from >52,000 health care workers at Cleveland Clinic health system which showed lack of symptomatic infections in the Prior Covid, unvaccinated group, at 1-year follow up, through the Delta phase pic.twitter.com/Y2EAPfGue1 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492930580824006659 | 19:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from Il Sole 24 Ore: Il «paziente non può scegliere» il tipo di vaccino, la decisione spetta alla Asl: In capo al paziente non può configurarsi - a priori - alcuna sorta di diritto di opzione a vedersi somministrare un determinato tipo di vaccino anziché un altro → https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/il-paziente-non-puo-scegliere-tipo-vaccino-decisione-spetta-asl-AEM5NrDB | 19:57 |
| LjL | what a terrible-sounding decision | 20:00 |
| LjL | we have enough vaccines to let patients choose if they insist | 20:01 |
| LjL | and now vaccination is mandatory for many people | 20:01 |
| LjL | allowing them to choose doesn't seem so outlandish, especially since many regions have *already* allowed them | 20:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): And a new study this week found long-term cardiovascular sequelae of COVID-19 in veterans. Various CV issues ~2x more frequent than non-infected. This popn has a high rate of CV issues already; the 2x translates into a 5% rate in 1y (vs 2.5% [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1492936837731479552 | 20:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The boost in Omicron protection from Prior Covid with a 1-shot vaccine. No benefit from more than 1 shotmedrxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/WSH75AYu4t → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492944308789407746 | 20:35 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/02/09/1044985/shi-zhengli-covid-lab-leak-wuhan/ | 20:44 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.technologyreview.com: She’s at the center of the covid lab leak controversy. Now she’s telling her story. | MIT Technology Review | 20:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): If you haven't read this #LongCovid cardiovascular disease at 1 year report, you've missed a big one Summarized here @Nature nature.com/articles/d4158… pic.twitter.com/1V1NcmabV0 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492946453513138177 | 20:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The new "divergence" of cause of deaths during Omicron in the UK, "with" vs "from"wsj.com/articles/in-u-… @deniseroland "The snapshot figure has the potential to overcount and undercount true Covid-19 deaths." pic.twitter.com/bloWbkNsyD → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492950385933238272 | 21:04 |
| lastshell | hey guys how things going are we better or in worst phase from previous year ? | 21:15 |
| Arsanerit | Who are we and how do you define better or worse? | 21:16 |
| lastshell | Dr Z recommends to end all pendemic restrictions https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77BSPcPeX5g | 21:17 |
| lastshell | I'm still wearing masks even in my state the mandate was removed | 21:17 |
| lastshell | I got omicron in new year eve, just worry of re-infection | 21:18 |
| de-facto | its a gigantic mistake to end restricting transmission paths. mark my words. | 21:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): In 6 months from June to early December 2021, the US had "approximately 135,000 excess deaths ...in persons >18 years old" who were unvaccinated.medrxiv.org/content/10.110… That is: unnecessary and preventable, ~17% were in age < 50 years by @DavidSwerdlowMD [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1492957349690044416 | 21:33 |
| de-facto | this may be the very last opportunity to gain the ability to control respiratory transmission paths before the next pandemic will come | 21:33 |
| de-facto | instead we amplify breeding of increasing the mutants fitness against vaccination induced immunity | 21:34 |
| de-facto | why are we doing exactly the wrong thing? | 21:35 |
| lastshell | de-facto I'm still wearing a mask | 21:38 |
| Arsanerit | Because we neither have the popular support nor the means to enforce a worldwide strict lockdown indefinitely, nor do people accept the indefinite travel restrictions this would entail. Today I learned that when bisons (buffalo) are relocated in North America, they have a quarantine of up to three years. | 21:38 |
| lastshell | but I wonder why most people pretend this is over | 21:38 |
| de-facto | i am pretty sure, if there is a great filter in the fermi paradox, its a pandemic | 21:39 |
| Arsanerit | It's not possible to stop a virus such as SARS-CoV-2 Omega variant from spreading. | 21:39 |
| de-facto | so its of existential importance to gain the ability to control transmission paths in a globalized society, there is no alternative to that but extinction in the future | 21:40 |
| lastshell | I don't think we need to stop, we just need to make it less deathly | 21:40 |
| Arsanerit | Pandemics don't really kill 100% of a population. | 21:40 |
| de-facto | it is very possible, China demonstrates it | 21:40 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: Firstly, China is a totalitarian dictatorship and it is impossible to independently verify China's claims. Secondly, other nations do not have the totalitarian surveillance capabilities that China has. | 21:41 |
| Arsanerit | No numbers published by China can be trusted. | 21:41 |
| de-facto | NZ also demonstrated its possible | 21:41 |
| Arsanerit | I said it's not possible to do this worldwide. | 21:41 |
| de-facto | its just a question of how determined a strategy is enforced | 21:41 |
| de-facto | not yet, and thats exactly the reason we have to develop that ability, worldwide | 21:42 |
| Arsanerit | There are many countries with weak or corrupt law enforcement, where it would simply not be possible to enforce such to the degree that would be necessary to control a pandemic. | 21:42 |
| lastshell | de-facto each country is doing what they assume is the best, and because there is no one big goverment for all countries | 21:42 |
| de-facto | then such locations would have to be isolated | 21:42 |
| lastshell | virus will spread regadless | 21:42 |
| Arsanerit | I don't want to have a worldwide China-style totalitarian surveillance state. | 21:42 |
| de-facto | yeah people prefer to have their convenience and as long as we tolerate that we cant evolve to a state where we truly would have achieved a sustainable global society | 21:44 |
| lastshell | de-facto question how feasible is a new variant emerge more deadly ? | 21:44 |
| de-facto | this is exactly the problem, and the reason we will see a few more mutants every year | 21:44 |
| Arsanerit | Cases in New Zealand are rising rapidly. | 21:45 |
| Arsanerit | Numbers from China cannot be trusted. | 21:45 |
| de-facto | its not only about COVID, i am talking about biosecurity in an abstracted way | 21:45 |
| de-facto | its extremely alarming what we can observe right now | 21:45 |
| Arsanerit | Most of the poorest countries in the world do not have the means for sufficient testing, nor for strict law enforcement, nor for making people in strict quarantine not die from hunger and thirst. | 21:45 |
| Arsanerit | How is someone who needs to walk half an hour through a refugee camp going to isolate if nobody will bring them water? | 21:45 |
| Arsanerit | Human society is fundamentally incompatible with biosecurity. | 21:46 |
| Arsanerit | If a pandemic makes humanity extinct, then so be it. | 21:46 |
| de-facto | COVID just demonstrates that most are mentally not evolved enough to deal with the technologically enabled globalized society, most people only selfishly think about their own conveniences, recklessly ignoring the needs of other people in society, let alone global society | 21:47 |
| de-facto | people want to profit from a globalized context, but they are unwilling to do their own contribution to make this sustainable | 21:47 |
| Arsanerit | A pandemic that would kill a substantial fraction of mankind would improve sustainability. | 21:47 |
| de-facto | it will come | 21:48 |
| de-facto | its just a question of time | 21:48 |
| lastshell | de-facto r u talking about new world order ? | 21:48 |
| de-facto | and by then those countries that learned how to control transmission paths will have the least impact from that | 21:48 |
| Arsanerit | The COVID-19 pandemic is far too mild for that. Even if there is substantial excess mortality, that may well be offset by some reduction in mortality in coming years since most of the dead were old and would have died within the next ten years from other causes. | 21:48 |
| de-facto | i am talking about that we can observe how open transmission paths are, globally, mutants spread worldwide in days to weeks, hence every other pathogen with similar transmission paths can do exactly the same | 21:49 |
| de-facto | and i am shocked that people dont see how alarming this really is | 21:49 |
| Arsanerit | Yes, and they will. Such a pandemic will kill many worldwide. You cannot stop it, because connectivity is fundamentally inherent to human nature. | 21:50 |
| de-facto | biotechnology is progressing fast, it will be trivial to create a live pathogen from accessible datasets (it almost already is), hence it will be done, for low costs, in many places, this is not controllable | 21:52 |
| de-facto | so its absolutely essential to gain the ability to contain the spread by controlling transmission paths NOW. | 21:52 |
| de-facto | we really have to look at the bigger picture, its not only about COVID, its about modern technology and finding a sustainable way for a global society | 21:54 |
| Arsanerit | If someone does create a pathogen that will kill 90% of humanity then that would be very good for environmental sustainability. We might even meet 1.5°C if they hurry up. | 22:00 |
| Arsanerit | You can forget about people taking precautionary measures to stop such a pathogen from spreading in case it emerges. People won't act until it starts killing massively. | 22:00 |
| de-facto | well we have right now the opportunity with SARS-CoV-2 to test and compare different control strategies for transmission paths without killing 90% of humanity, hence may learn how to prevent that in the future | 22:05 |
| de-facto | this is the one good thing we could make out of COVID and its dismissed, ignored and replaced with selfish convenience | 22:06 |
| de-facto | a gigantic mistake | 22:06 |
| de-facto | it will continue though, maybe the next mutant already exists somewhere and only waits for the opportunity, for the right tourist to import it and spread it into a more densely connected social graph | 22:08 |
| de-facto | so maybe after a few years more people are willing to look at the repeating pattern and ask about alternatives to just ignoring biosecurity | 22:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: FDA authorizes new Covid-19 monoclonal antibody that works against Omicron variant → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/srswsl/fda_authorizes_new_covid19_monoclonal_antibody/ | 22:11 |
| Arsanerit | All human graphs are densely connected. | 22:11 |
| Arsanerit | People will not accept to reduce the connectivity of human graphs. | 22:11 |
| de-facto | well but localized graphs may only be loosely connected to bigger networks, e.g. via travelers | 22:13 |
| de-facto | how else could Omicron accumulate so many mutantions until travelers spread it worldwide? | 22:13 |
| de-facto | a VoC mutant 1) has to evolve 2) has to have a fitness advantage 3) has to get the opportunity of import in a global social graph | 22:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): Same thing happened for one of first studies w #SARSCoV2, where problem was determined by @m_a_martin @KoelleLab: science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… (21/n) → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1492974613596282882 | 22:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Excess COVID-19 associated deaths among the unvaccinated population >= 18 years old in the US, May 30 through December 4, 2021 → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/srtpvc/excess_covid19_associated_deaths_among_the/ | 22:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Underdispersion in the reported Covid-19 case and death numbers may suggest data manipulations → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sru02o/underdispersion_in_the_reported_covid19_case_and/ | 22:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Sulodexide in the treatment of patients with long COVID 19 symptoms and endothelial dysfunction: The results of TUN-EndCOV study → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/srubj8/sulodexide_in_the_treatment_of_patients_with_long/ | 23:18 |
| LjL | %title https://twitter.com/redouad/status/1492984887648870403 hmm look de-facto it looks like we're back to the "from" vs "with" issue and an OWID person is taking the "there's lots of 'with'" side | 23:33 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From twitter.com: Edouard Mathieu (@redouad): "Denmark is getting a lot of attention at the moment, with many people debating if the data shown on @OurWorldInData should be worrying or not. While I won't comment on [...] | 23:33 |
| de-facto | honestly i discarded the distinction of death "with" and death "from" covid since looking at the *perfect* match of COVID fatalities being the pattern ontop of over all cause death rates | 23:36 |
| xx | nobody dies from AIDS, they die with AIDS | 23:37 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/hZg6v35 https://i.imgur.com/89iOeVZ.png <-- this is a plot for Germany, comparing all cause death rates with COVID fatal outcomes on the same time axis | 23:39 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Generic mortality vs COVID fatalities - Album on Imgur | 23:39 |
| LjL | de-facto, there may be a difference in earnest with Omicron, let's not discard anything a priori | 23:42 |
| LjL | xx, nobody dies from life, they die with life | 23:42 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: how about excess death compared to regular excess death for the same season? | 23:42 |
| LjL | uh | 23:43 |
| LjL | isn't excess death *calculated* seasonally? | 23:43 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, what do you mean? | 23:43 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: Is it? | 23:44 |
| xx | LjL: life is an STD | 23:44 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, at minimum, there is an annual sine curve being used in the EU calculations | 23:44 |
| xx | I just want to cure it | 23:44 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: I mean, I see a seasonality in the death rate, but IIRC there's always a seasonality in the death rate, so I wonder how the increase in deaths in winter 2021/2022 compare with the increase in deaths in an average winter. | 23:44 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: I see, thanks. | 23:44 |
| de-facto | this is not excess death, its just all causes death rate | 23:45 |
| Arsanerit | Then the term "excess winter deaths" is against what baselin? | 23:45 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: aha | 23:45 |
| de-facto | you can see the other years overlayed at https://service.destatis.de/DE/bevoelkerung/sterbefallzahlen_bundeslaender.html | 23:46 |
| de-facto | again all causes death | 23:47 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, wikipedia has this example for excess deaths https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement#/media/File:Daily_mortality_in_Spain_April_2018%E2%80%93April_2020.png where the black is the expected deaths, the red is the actual deaths, so the difference between the two is excess deaths, which is not significant within the gray confidence interval, but significant outside | 23:47 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: Thanks for the link. | 23:48 |
| LjL | the black expected deaths already includes the seasonal effects of the flu ("gripe") for instance | 23:48 |
| LjL | EuroMoMo simplifies it with a sine wave https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ | 23:50 |
| LjL | (or similar, i'm not 100% confident it's a sinewave, just that it's an abstracted approximation) | 23:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based COVID-19 Vaccination in the US From December 2020 to August 2021 - CDC and FDA Researchers → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/sruf78/myocarditis_cases_reported_after_mrnabased/ | 23:57 |
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