| Alex1138[m] | welp | 00:11 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from ##covid-19 Zotero group: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based COVID-19 Vaccination in the US From December 2020 to August 2021: Type Journal Article Author Matthew E. Oster Author David K. Shay Author John R. Su Author Julianne Gee Author C. Buddy Creech Author Karen R. Broder Author Kathryn Edwards [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/K2IMECUS | 00:15 |
| de-facto | .title https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2788346 | 00:28 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From jamanetwork.com: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based COVID-19 Vaccination in the US From December 2020 to August 2021 | Cardiology | JAMA | JAMA Network | 00:28 |
| de-facto | .title https://citynews-today.stgy.ovh/~media/22874539850797/jama_oster_2022_oi_210145_1643049434-03827-2.pdf | 00:29 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From citynews-today.stgy.ovh: Myocarditis Cases Reported After mRNA-Based COVID-19 Vaccination in the US From December 2020 to August 2021 (American Medical Association) | 00:29 |
| Tuvix | "The reports to VAERS are then reviewed by third-party professional coders who have been trained in the assignment of Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities preferred terms." | 00:40 |
| Tuvix | So, they basically took VAERS data, had someone familiar with medical coding review reports, and went off of that? One of the other myocardits reports recently compared both VAERS using similar methods with a clinical-evaluation, and while similar trends emerged, the clinical figures and extrapolation to national incidence were notably lower, although clearly statistically relevant for those clinical | 00:41 |
| Tuvix | findings. | 00:42 |
| de-facto | indeed VAERS data is hard to normalize (estimate incidence to compare with expectation value) | 00:54 |
| LjL | Tuvix, it mentions the vast majority of cases were hospitalized, so unless many people completely made up hospitalizations in VAERS reports... | 01:06 |
| Tuvix | Well, that's what the other system (I forget the name now, will mention it if I find the article) _actually_ did, was compare real patient records. | 01:10 |
| Tuvix | That dataset is not open to the public due to the private health data contained within it though. | 01:11 |
| Tuvix | I don't discount this as an intentional abuse of VAERS, only note that it may well be an inflated number, and purely-clinical studies without some very good normalization of other effects that might lead to undercounting or underestimation. To what degree of each is the real question. | 01:16 |
| Tuvix | There has been an awful lot of actual abouse of VAERS and twisted by the anti-vax crowd: | 01:16 |
| Tuvix | .title https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/as-2021-shambles-to-a-close-the-misuse-of-vaers-by-antivaxxers-continues-apace/ | 01:16 |
| Brainstorm | Tuvix: From sciencebasedmedicine.org: As 2021 shambles to a close, the misuse of VAERS by antivaxxers continues apace | Science-Based Medicine | 01:16 |
| Tuvix | Ah, VSD, the Vaccine Safety Datalink is the more reliable monitoring database. | 01:21 |
| Tuvix | Again, VAERS is important and serves as a useful tool, but it's also very hard to use as your primary (or worse: sole) source to draw specific conclusions about causality. It's far better at identifying trends or other forms of early-warning that professionals need to follow-up on in more appropriate clicnical settings. | 01:22 |
| Tuvix | This is a good quote from that article, "In other words, VAERS is a hypothesis-generating, not a hypothesis testing, system, and its hypotheses are tested using better systems, like VSD, CISA, and PRISM." | 01:25 |
| Tuvix | "Using VAERS reports from 1990 to 2003, the study found “most case reports to VAERS that were related to overdose, neuropathy, and thimerosal were related to litigation”, as were “many cases” that were related to “autism and mental retardation”." | 01:28 |
| Tuvix | (the study being referenced in that quote is here: https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article-abstract/117/2/387/68481/Vaccine-Adverse-Event-Reporting-System-Reporting ) | 01:28 |
| Tuvix | Of course, that was the hip and popular anti-vax position to take back then. | 01:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Type 1 diabetes drug was withdrawn because of a “commercial conflict of interest,” charity argues: Pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has withdrawn the type 1 diabetes indication for its drug dapagliflozin because of fears that required changes to the product label would cause confusion among... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o373.short | 01:32 |
| Tuvix | "[…] existing literature does not describe carefully inclusion and exclusion criteria. […] It therefore is [crucial] to provide detailed methods sections that describe their inclusion and exclusion criteria." | 01:32 |
| Tuvix | And, having had some exposure to medical billing practices at prior jobs, the recent study I'm commenting on doesn't seem to have clearly identified that critera at all, near as I can tell. | 01:33 |
| Tuvix | Just, and to quote the JAMA publication, "reports to VAERS are then reviewed by third-party professional coders […] then assign appropriate terms based on the information available in the reports." | 01:34 |
| Tuvix | This is a good read on the topic too, comparing VAERS & VSD data: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/vaccine-myocarditis-an-update/ | 01:37 |
| Tuvix | Here's the really weird thing about that discussion; using VAERS reports, Moderna actually seems to show a _better_ (ie: occurs less) outcome with Moderna than Pfizer for 16-17 year olds in part. But we're pretty sure that is actually the opposite of reality. | 01:38 |
| Tuvix | "[Using VAERS…] The highest myocarditis rate was 1 in 14,000 in males age 16-17 after their second dose of the Pfizer vaccine. […] Interestingly, the myocarditis rate was 1 in 32,000 in males age 16-17 after their second dose of the Moderna vaccine." <-- quite likely this does not match reality. | 01:39 |
| Tuvix | Nevermind the numbers, the relative comparison doesn't really check out with all the other recent reporting. | 01:39 |
| Tuvix | VSD on the other hand, put the risk at 12-39 year olds at 1 in 79,000 for males (for Pfizer, with higher incidence from Moderna.) Reality may lie somewhere in between. | 01:41 |
| Tuvix | Really I think we do need more research specifically on this issue, and done in clinical settings to be as sure about the data as we can be. | 01:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Why Wishful Thinking on Covid Remains As Dangerous as Ever thenation.com/article/societ… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1493021764972072964 | 01:42 |
| Tuvix | Now, I do wonder what this means from the JAMA study, "For persons younger than 30 years of age, medical record reviews and clinician interviews were conducted to describe clinical presentation, diagnostic test results, treatment, and early outcomes." | 02:08 |
| Tuvix | Oh, does that just perhaps mean they discussed the VAERS report _with_ a clinician, not necessarily the one that was in charge of the case? That might make more sense, but wouldn't do much to reduce incorrect AE reporting. | 02:10 |
| Tuvix | I'd really like to see some info on boosters here too; what's the impact given that overall many people report fewer symptoms after a 3rd dose, but that'd be interesting to get practical data on. | 02:12 |
| Tuvix | LjL: Yea, perhaps when combined with the clinical data available it can come closer. Curious that the study didn't find a huge difference in rates between the 18-24 for Pfizer vs Moderna though. It's there, but not as much higher as I had expected. | 02:19 |
| Tuvix | 52.4 vs 56.3 per-million doses | 02:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: UK.GOV - 1513 Viral Evolution Scenarios: Covid-19 Medium-Term Scenarios – February 2022 → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/sryasj/ukgov_1513_viral_evolution_scenarios_covid19/ | 02:30 |
| LjL | Tuvix, yeah i must say i've included this in zotero because i want to keep track of this issue but just from cursory reading i was a bit confused | 02:58 |
| Tuvix | Right, I mean it's a decent paper, but I just question some of the methods here, or at least would like more detail on how the coding relates to the clinical evaulation. | 02:59 |
| Tuvix | The figures provided aren't outragious to the point that I would say it's a "bad" study (it's not) but I suppose it's really hard to use VAERS to produce meaningful analysis for all the reasons I went on about above. | 02:59 |
| Tuvix | I guess I really view VAERS as more of a tool to highlight areas that may require further study in more reliable tools and review of past studies, or to help drive targets for new studies. | 03:00 |
| Tuvix | For instance, 1626 reports met with their case-definition, but then just 826 cases had "detailed clinical information available" -- but those don't seem to be the only ones included in the per-rate figures given. Are the remaining 49% of them *just* based on a coding review then? | 03:02 |
| LjL | Tuvix, then again, what *else* is there to keep track of these rare-but-not-irrelevant events than VAERS? it's too uncommon to show up in the regular phase 3, i guess they should start a myocarditis-specific followup thing for vaccinated people, one where the reports are guaranteed to be checked by a clinician in hospital, but absent that, VAERS is really all they have | 03:02 |
| Tuvix | VSD, PRISM, and others. VAERS is useful to suggest what we need to avaluate clinically; it's not a clinical tool by itself. | 03:03 |
| Tuvix | To be clear, VSD _does_ show similar results, just not at the same levels as being suggested here. It's still certainly high enough to be notable, and perhaps even drive decisions about which vaccines to use for specific age-groups or lifestyle considerations. | 03:04 |
| Tuvix | Of course, if you believe the prior VAERS evaluation I linked, Moderna is better as it results in _fewer_ case incidence in 16-17 year olds. That's almost surely wrong, but you can draw all kinds of bad conclusions from data not designed to be used like that. | 03:06 |
| Tuvix | I actually suspect that's an artifact of more concern around Pfizer, a.la the Weber effect | 03:07 |
| Tuvix | (more social interst/concern = more reports = higher apparent incidence rate despite clinical reality) | 03:08 |
| LjL | yeah like after AstraZeneca's issues started to be known, reporting data could all be binned | 03:08 |
| LjL | the myocarditis issues did initially arise in Israel with Pfizer (because that's all the use) | 03:08 |
| Tuvix | Perhaps not binned, but surely made a lot less useful when compared to studies that really focused on those issues. | 03:08 |
| Tuvix | And really that example is exactly how it should work; early-warning systems give reason to evaluate something more closely, and if it turns out to be reflected in more focused trials or studies with very specific controls, the warning system did its job exactly how we'd expect. | 03:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +86565 cases, +107 deaths since a day ago — Netherlands: +60218 cases, +9 deaths since 20 hours ago — Italy: +52345 cases, +191 deaths, +462881 tests (11.3% positive) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +40864 cases, +52 deaths since 20 hours ago | 03:10 |
| Tuvix | I think of it a bit like a fire-alarm in a building. Sure, they go of when you just burn your food on the stove sometimes, but they could also indicate a structure fire. | 03:10 |
| LjL | difference is you can usually check immediately, and if you can't the default action should be to leave, not run more detailed but much lengthier checks | 03:11 |
| Tuvix | We don't say things like "a review of fire alarm events on this block indicate that 15 buildings were on fire this month" | 03:11 |
| Tuvix | And true, I'm using a very crude example as to event & causality; it's much harder in the medical world than to look at a building and decide if it is or is not burning. | 03:14 |
| Tuvix | Those things take weeks/months to do. Although back with the autism anti-vax nonsense, silly reports were put into VAERS. One of the above articles talks about an autism-advocate who had a couple reports put in to highlight the issue by claiming vaccines turned them into The Hulk and another indiviaul into Wonder Woman :P | 03:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +1794 cases, +39757 tests (4.5% positive) since a day ago | 04:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): Since IC people who started with RNA are now getting a 4th dose, IC JnJers are still a step behind. And would have been better to do this before the Omicron wave. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1493058427152580612 | 04:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: SARS-CoV-2 infection increases risk of acute kidney injury in a bimodal age distribution → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/ss0rca/sarscov2_infection_increases_risk_of_acute_kidney/ | 06:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Novosibirsk, Russia: +5349 cases, +15 deaths since a day ago — Tatarstan, Russia: +3480 cases, +7 deaths since a day ago — Germany: +62841 cases since 3 hours ago — Atacama, Chile: +980 cases, +1 deaths since a day ago | 07:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Surviving COVID-19: For some, getting the virus was just the beginning → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ss1rhd/surviving_covid19_for_some_getting_the_virus_was/ | 07:55 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Cambodia: +512 cases since a day ago | 08:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for El Salvador: +11893 cases since 5 hours ago — New Caledonia: +3343 cases since 2 days ago | 09:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 14, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ss5c4q/daily_discussion_thread_february_14_2022/ | 09:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Looking into the long-COVID brain → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/ss5wqk/looking_into_the_longcovid_brain/ | 09:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Is the nicotinic hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 feasible? → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/ss6bi9/is_the_nicotinic_hypothesis_for_sarscov2_feasible/ | 10:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Why Covid-19 vaccines are a freaking miracle: The pandemic has been catastrophic. But consider something that may have escaped you: You have witnessed — and you are a beneficiary of — a freaking miracle. → https://www.statnews.com/2022/02/14/why-covid-19-vaccines-are-a-freaking-miracle/ | 10:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Brunei: +1477 cases since 7 hours ago — France: +3343 cases since 7 hours ago | 11:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Study finds older people are less likely to fall for COVID-19 scams → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/ss6vgx/study_finds_older_people_are_less_likely_to_fall/ | 11:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: FEATURE: Japanese reporter describes agonizing long-term effects of COVID-19 → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/ss74ef/feature_japanese_reporter_describes_agonizing/ | 11:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Scientists have found immunity against severe COVID-19 disease begins to wane 4 months after receipt of the third dose of an mRNA vaccine. Vaccine effectiveness against Omicron variant-associated hospitalizations was 91 percent during the first two [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/ss7tmn/scientists_have_found_immunity_against_severe/ | 11:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: ECDC: Data on the daily number of new reported COVID-19 cases and deaths by EU/EEA country → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/data-daily-new-cases-covid-19-eueea-country | 12:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on COVID-19 vaccination in the EU/EEA: Data in various file formats with information on COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, manufacturers, and target groups in the EU/EEA. → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/data-covid-19-vaccination-eu-eea | 12:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Veterinary medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Respiporc FLUpan H1N1, Porcine influenza vaccine (inactivated), Date of authorisation: 17/05/2017, Revision: 6, Status: Authorised → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/veterinary/EPAR/respiporc-flupan-h1n1 | 13:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iceland: +6147 cases, +1 deaths since 2 days ago — Germany: +62846 cases since 10 hours ago | 14:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: Weekly Scientific Discussion Thread - February 14, 2022: This weekly thread is for scientific discussion pertaining to COVID-19. Please post questions about the science of this virus and disease here to collect them for others and clear up post space for [... want %more?] → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/ssa1f7/weekly_scientific_discussion_thread_february_14/ | 14:03 |
| de-facto | ,title https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7107e2.htm#T2_down | 14:07 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7107e2.htm#T2_down | 14:08 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.cdc.gov: Waning 2-Dose and 3-Dose Effectiveness of mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19âAssociated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults During Periods of Delta and [...] | 14:08 |
| de-facto | Tuvix, ^^ | 14:10 |
| de-facto | "Waning 2-Dose and 3-Dose Effectiveness of mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19–Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Predominance — VISION Network, 10 States, August 2021–January 2022" | 14:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Novavax Seeks to Clear Covid Shot for Teens After Successful Trial: " Novavax said it plans to begin studying the shot in even younger children in the second quarter." → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/ssaba9/novavax_seeks_to_clear_covid_shot_for_teens_after/ | 14:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Tracking COVID-19 in California → https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/ssam7c/tracking_covid19_in_california/ | 14:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: COVID-19: endemic doesn’t mean harmless - "Yes, common colds are endemic. So are Lassa fever, malaria and polio. So was smallpox, until vaccines stamped it out" → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/ssax1r/covid19_endemic_doesnt_mean_harmless_yes_common/ | 14:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from Novavax: (news): Novavax Files for Conditional Marketing Authorization of COVID-19 Vaccine in Switzerland → https://ir.novavax.com/2022-02-14-Novavax-Files-for-Conditional-Marketing-Authorization-of-COVID-19-Vaccine-in-Switzerland | 15:11 |
| user282069 | cc | 15:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: PIP: Opinion/decision on a Paediatric investigation plan (PIP): Human anti-interleukin-15 (IL-15) monoclonal antibody, decision type: , therapeutic area: , PIP number: P/0199/2021 → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/paediatric-investigation-plans/emea-002775-pip01-20 | 15:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +38196 cases, +18 deaths, +150263 tests (25.4% positive) since 2 days ago — Germany: +64979 cases since 12 hours ago — Palau: +3 deaths since 2 hours ago | 16:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: PIP: Opinion/decision on a Paediatric investigation plan (PIP): Respiratory syncytial virus stabilised prefusion f subunit vaccine (RSVpreF), decision type: , therapeutic area: , PIP number: P/0202/2021 → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/paediatric-investigation-plans/emea-002795-pip01-20 | 16:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "Compared to the unvaccinated, effectiveness... a third dose of BNT162b2 was: 90% (88−92) against symptomatic COVID-19 not requiring hospital admission, and 97% (95−98) against COVID-19-related hospital admissions among all adults aged ≥18 years." → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1493241738768445441 | 16:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): American Covid deaths are finally in descent, after reaching 75% of the pandemic peak when there was no vaccine protection pic.twitter.com/iYq2zvyErg → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1493245458205999105 | 16:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Vaccination status by race and ethnicity @SanDiegoCounty, 2nd largest in California The term "Fully" doesn't work anymore.The high proportion of Not vaccinated or not boosted is noteworthy for all, and especially among Blacks and American Indian/Alaska [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1493249380752658435 | 16:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Unlike many other countries, the United States is long overdue to recognize protection afforded by Prior Covid. New data make the case even more compellingerictopol.substack.com/p/ground-truth… pic.twitter.com/hDbJ1oZYz7 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1493253430453817344 | 17:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Three weeks later and we still have green across the board on the dashboard. Dropping Plan B in England and adding reinfections into these daily reported numbers hasn’t stopped all three metrics from falling.England reported cases (31,943) are the [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1493256048874082309 | 17:17 |
| pwr22 | Oh dear, Ukraine situation seems quite scary | 17:25 |
| pwr22 | And we still haven't got over all the covid stuff 😛 | 17:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Atlantic: America’s Vaccination Campaign Is Ignoring One Very Clear Target: It is common knowledge that COVID risk goes up with age , but how steeply it rises is still astounding to see after two years of living and dying with this coronavirus. Compared with someone in their 20s , a [... want %more?] → https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/vaccinate-old/622080/ | 17:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Improving the Mental Health and Well Being of Healthcare Providers Through the Transcendental Meditation Technique → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05239429 | 17:36 |
| aann | why are denmark and .nl cases going up but not neighboring states | 17:43 |
| pwr22 | UK in general is in a better place than a month ago for sure | 17:49 |
| pwr22 | But where I am locally is well behind the average for some reason 😧 | 17:49 |
| * pwr22 uploaded an image: (49KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/shortestpath.dev/FAaGWeVYGvpyEoUCsptnijOD/image.png > | 17:49 | |
| pwr22 | Both cases and vaccinations! | 17:49 |
| aann | maybe it was an early 'let it rip' state, UK , sweden are next | 17:50 |
| pwr22 | The whole city itself is better but still below the UK average | 17:50 |
| * pwr22 uploaded an image: (18KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/shortestpath.dev/OAWViNUwPONSTJquoEBtUciP/image.png > | 17:50 | |
| pwr22 | UK average is 10% higher across the board for vaccinations | 17:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +78650 cases, +14 deaths since 14 hours ago — Switzerland: +10794 cases since 2 hours ago — Tonga: +68 cases since 2 days ago — Canada: +1587 cases, +5 deaths since 14 hours ago | 18:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Psychological Effects of the Pandemic on the Health Personnel Working in the Filiation Team → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05238194 | 18:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The serious problem of under-vaccinated and under-boosted in people of advanced age in the US is addressed today by @sarahzhang @TheAtlantic theatlantic.com/health/archive… twitter.com/EricTopol/stat… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1493273570495000576 | 18:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Memory cytotoxic SARS-CoV-2 spike protein-specific CD4+ T cells associate with viral control → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/ssh2n1/memory_cytotoxic_sarscov2_spike_proteinspecific/ | 19:15 |
| LjL | de-facto, that shows 3 doses waning just as fast as 2 doses, correct? : | 19:48 |
| LjL | :( | 19:48 |
| LjL | or... faster | 19:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from ##covid-19 Zotero group: Waning 2-Dose and 3-Dose Effectiveness of mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19–Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Predominance — VISION Network, 10 States, August 2021–January 2022: [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/VFL7GBGX | 19:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The impact of vaccine 2-doses and 3-doses on deaths, Omicron wave in Switzerland, all ages, and by age groups below, by @redouad @OurWorldInData twitter.com/redouad/status… pic.twitter.com/uceEKXfVVf → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1493300905952768002 | 20:13 |
| Arsanerit | I think the Ukraine situation is not particularly scary. Putin aims to scare by moving soldiers around. That's cheap for him to do, but not a very sensible war strategy, nor does he have much to gain by war (and a lot to lose). His aim of scaring people in the west and getting western state leaders to talk 1-to-1 to him, Russia has already achieved. | 20:45 |
| Arsanerit | The commercial media are going along with this, because fear sells. | 20:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Differential interferon-α subtype induced immune signatures are associated with suppression of SARS-CoV-2 infection → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/ssjesj/differential_interferonα_subtype_induced_immune/ | 20:52 |
| xx | Arsanerit: maybe not scary for you... | 20:52 |
| xx | I might be emigrating to china tomorrow to escape any possible hostilities | 20:53 |
| rustynail1[m] | ❤️🐻 | 20:53 |
| rustynail1[m] | yeah that would be terrible to have to choose to go to china | 20:54 |
| rustynail1[m] | well basically being forced to go | 20:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Altimmune Inc: AdCOVID → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/75/ | 21:02 |
| Tuvix | LjL: I'm not really sure that CDC chart de-facto linked necessarily indicates a faster waning. For example, let's rule out the 76% VE for delta-predominate ≥4 mo just due to the wild CI; look at Omicron through; 3-dose 2-3 mo waning was not as pronounced by percentage from <2-month as the 2-dose waning percentage was. | 21:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Airlangga University: UNAIR Inactivated COVID-19 Vaccine → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/181/ | 21:12 |
| Tuvix | That trend continues with the 4-month point, with the 3-dose almost exactly the same waning by percentage as 2-dose VE reduction. But it also doesn't seem to be doing much *better* with less waning over time, which isn't really suprising but is disappointing. | 21:12 |
| LjL | Tuvix, yeah the "faster" part is likely just me staring more at the bleaker-looking numbers than at the vaguely-less-bleak ones just because i'm like that. but in essence i wanted to say it seems similar at best :\ | 21:14 |
| Tuvix | Right, it's actually harder to tell with Delta just because the chart caps out at ≥4 mo for hospitalizations, and the CI is so bad as to basically be unusable | 21:15 |
| Tuvix | But Omicron seems pretty similar. Not really better given the only marginally-better waning for 3-dose than 2, but of course 3-doses start from a higher VE (which is the whole point of the boost, after all) | 21:15 |
| Tuvix | Waning at 2-3 (vs ≤2) months is 91.5% (2-dose) 96.7% (3-dose) | 21:15 |
| Tuvix | Then waning at 4 / ≥4 (due to Omicron not being out over 4 mo yet!) is 89.2% (2-dose) vs. 88.6% (3-dose). | 21:16 |
| Tuvix | Oh, those percentages, to clarify, are "percent of the last measurement" | 21:16 |
| Tuvix | So, 100% would be "same VE as prior period" | 21:17 |
| Tuvix | Overall 3-dose vs. Omicron is showing about 4% less (that's better) waning against the <2 month values, but that's also within the confidence intervals. | 21:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: Controlled studies ease worries of widespread long Covid in kids: Children are more likely to suffer from pandemic-associated symptoms than from infection-associated symptoms. School policies should reflect this reality. → https://www.statnews.com/2022/02/14/controlled-studies-ease-worries-widespread-long-covid-kids/ | 21:21 |
| LjL | it may be the whole point of the boost, but the ECDC, Pfizer, the WHO (for what that matters) all have said at this point that continuing to get boosters at a more-frequent-than-yearly pace will not be tenable, and might be risky. Italy has said the 3rd dose should be considered the "last" (obviously not forever, but for this cycle of non-multivalent vaccines and/or for this season) with just some exception, has removed any expiration dates from "boosted green | 21:21 |
| LjL | passes"... you get the gist. | 21:21 |
| LjL | so finding that the booster might in fact leave us pretty unprotected already at 6 months, nevermind a year from now, is not great based on these premises | 21:22 |
| LjL | (it wouldn't be great anyway) | 21:22 |
| Tuvix | Right, especially if we expect at least seasonal waves of reinfection, and perhaps other waves too during the non-flu-like-illness seasons. | 21:23 |
| LjL | if it's quite seasonal, then as long as we get the vaccine early... but if it's seasonal, then i'd say it seems to be "early-seasonal" | 21:26 |
| LjL | which makes getting the vaccine at an optimal time awkward. do the vaccine campaign in autumn, and it'll be kinda late, do it before the summer, and it'll be a bit too early | 21:26 |
| LjL | i would tell EU countries "no, don't decommission all those vaccine centers just yet" ;( | 21:26 |
| Tuvix | That, and logistics are a lot harder. Traditional flu vacines have fairly low uptake here, but if something like 70% of the population wanted them suddenly one year, we wouldn't have enough. | 21:27 |
| Tuvix | The initial COVID vaccination rollout was done largely by age and risk status, which naturally spread that out in 2021. Seasonal "race to the clinics" will be a lot harder, especially if the optimal time is measured in a small handful of weeks. | 21:28 |
| Tuvix | I eagerly await seeing how fast the US death tolls fall, given how poorly we've done on that matric compared to most of our other economic neighbors. | 21:29 |
| LjL | we wouldn't have enough either. we don't even vaccinate children against the flu. it's free for people over 65, and that's it | 21:29 |
| LjL | and in 2020 we didn't get enough vaccines anyway | 21:30 |
| LjL | i mean 2021 | 21:30 |
| Tuvix | Yea, I recall you mentioning that. It's typically free universally here, although when I got my influenza shot this year (I'd skipped it for some years prior) the woman in line in front of me would have gotten her flu shot along with the COVID dose she was there for, but her insurance apparently didn't cover it. | 21:30 |
| Tuvix | She was reasonably young, late 20's to mid 30's, and opted not to pay the $45 out of pocket cost for that, which makes sense. | 21:31 |
| LjL | Tuvix, well so it's "free universally" as long as you have a reasonable insurance? :P | 21:33 |
| Tuvix | Right, that's the "typically" part of that. Our insurance-based-system which is often tied to your employer is a very messy one. | 21:34 |
| xx | or you can just pay $9 to get it without insurance | 21:34 |
| Tuvix | How much is covered and at what rates and percentages is a huge mess that is detailed in multi-hundred-page documents. I think my prior year's insurance detail was 700-some pages. | 21:34 |
| Tuvix | No one actually reads those, but the idea is that by allowing citizens who don't have good employer-coverage to choose their options, they'll make better choices. It's hard to make good choices when the agreement details are unreadable though. | 21:36 |
| Tuvix | Folks like part-time workers, consultants/contractors, or small enough businesses that aren't legally required to offer their employees insurance would all fall into the "you have to deal with it yourself" boat. | 21:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: AMMS: Ad5-nCoV → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/42/ | 21:40 |
| Tuvix | xx: $9 where you are? This was at a pretty basic pharmacy, and the service charge for the woman in front of me in line, without insurance coverage, was $45, as I said. | 21:41 |
| xx | was $9 equivalent for a foreigner in portugal with no insurance | 21:41 |
| xx | because they can't overcharge the insurace companies, it means they have to charge low enough for people to still want to pay it | 21:42 |
| Tuvix | Ah, right, so something non-US charges less for the same service. Sounds quite right. | 21:42 |
| Tuvix | Yea, exactly. | 21:42 |
| xx | my experience is that modern public health insurance is basically a scam where the hospitals charge stupid amounts because they know they'll get those stupid amount | 21:42 |
| xx | if everyone actually had to pay out of pocket, it would drive the costs massively down to european levels, because otherwise doctors would be out of jobs | 21:43 |
| xx | "oh nobody can afford $200k surgery, guess we can shut down the operating theatre" | 21:43 |
| xx | "oh people can pay $2k? Guess we can still live with that" | 21:43 |
| Tuvix | They have ORs in Europe, and they seem to be staffed with doctors. | 21:43 |
| Tuvix | Right, the people making bank aren't so much the floor workers (nurses, doctors, cleaning staff, etc) but the hospital owners & execs, plus the rest of the medical industry built around it here. | 21:44 |
| xx | yeah | 21:44 |
| Tuvix | It's all part of why the US has one of the highest per-capita GDP healthcare costs in the world. | 21:44 |
| xx | and of course they'd first fire the doctors and not the execs :) | 21:44 |
| Tuvix | Out outcomes are not notably better than compared to say NHS in the UK, or Canada's system. | 21:44 |
| Tuvix | Of course, outcomes aren't what you pay for in the US; we have what's largely called a "fee for service" model. | 21:45 |
| Tuvix | The more services you provide, the more billable transactions you can make, and the insurance companies have declared what those cost. Healthcare providers charge it, even if it cost them less. Becuase that's the state fee. | 21:46 |
| Tuvix | stated* | 21:46 |
| Tuvix | At the very least, the pandemic changed that a tiny bit; it's very easy to get a COVID dose without any insurance, or even any ID (that was a concern for the undocumented residents and groups that advocate for them.) | 21:47 |
| Tuvix | (just for COVID vaccines mind you, not any *other* healthcare) | 21:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Arcturus Therapeutics Inc: ARCT-165 → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/148/ | 21:50 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i suspect until we have more pandemics, the COVID vaccine will remain an exception. it has been treated and is being treated very much as an exception even in Europe, with dedicated centers, the QR codes, and all that | 21:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Scientists propose cause, treatment for long COVID-19: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Feb 14, 2022 Signs of vagus nerve dysfunction in long COVID patients include difficulty breathing and problems swallowing. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/02/scientists-propose-cause-treatment-long-covid-19 | 22:00 |
| LjL | hmm, just read the above, not sure how many signs of "this is a company trying to spin its maybe-could-work press release into a treatment making money" i see, but i'd say a couple | 22:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from Novavax: (news): Singapore Health Sciences Authority Issues Interim Authorization for Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine → https://ir.novavax.com/2022-02-14-Singapore-Health-Sciences-Authority-Issues-Interim-Authorization-for-Novavax-COVID-19-Vaccine | 22:10 |
| de-facto | LjL, i extracted the data in a TSV, so if you like you can make your own analysis https://pastebin.com/raw/jGq4UbER | 22:13 |
| LjL | de-facto, nice, thanks | 22:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Hong Kong's COVID-19 surge intensifies: Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News Feb 14, 2022 Isolation beds at public hospitals have reached 90% capacity in Hong Kong, with 2,000 new cases reported. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/02/hong-kongs-covid-19-surge-intensifies | 22:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Scientists propose cause of symptoms, treatment for long COVID-19: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Feb 14, 2022 Signs of vagus nerve dysfunction in long COVID patients include difficulty breathing and problems swallowing. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/02/scientists-propose-cause-symptoms-treatment-long-covid-19 | 22:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR Science: Confused about how worried to be about the pandemic? You're not alone: It's another discombobulating moment in the pandemic, with lots of conflicting signs of where the virus is heading and what people should do about it [... want %more?] → https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/02/14/1080684261/confused-about-how-worried-to-be-about-the-pandemic-youre-not-alone | 23:00 |
| Arsanerit | 20:52:57 < xx> Arsanerit: maybe not scary for you... | 23:17 |
| Arsanerit | xx: I admit that if you're actually living in Donbass, the situation is precarious. | 23:17 |
| Arsanerit | xx: But it would seem very unlikely that Russia would proceed with bombing Kyiv. | 23:18 |
| xx | I don't think any predictions could truly predict reality if war actually happened | 23:21 |
| Arsanerit | It is true that war is a highly nonlinear process. So is action short of a war. | 23:25 |
| aann | isn't this the wrong channel | 23:36 |
| xx | aann: well, we could spin it into lots of refugees with questionable or nonexistent vaccination status flooding surrounding countries, decreases in hygiene levels, etc. | 23:41 |
| xx | which would likely increase the odds of a new covid variant | 23:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Autopsy Histopathologic Cardiac Findings in Two Adolescents Following the Second COVID-19 Vaccine Dose → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/ssmtkp/autopsy_histopathologic_cardiac_findings_in_two/ | 23:58 |
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