libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2022-02-20

de-facto.title https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/00:23
Brainstormde-facto: From www.worldometers.info: Hong Kong COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer00:23
de-facto.title https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3167675/coronavirus-beijing-expert-who-beat-wuhan-outbreak-now-hong-kong00:25
Brainstormde-facto: From www.scmp.com: Coronavirus: Beijing expert who beat Wuhan outbreak now on Hong Kong front line against Covid-19 | South China Morning Post00:25
oerheksfirst NL employers sued for long covid, https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/nederland/artikel/5288715/werkgevers-aansprakelijk-gevolgen-long-covid00:32
oerheksnot providing pasks and protected gear, while diagnose was known00:32
oerheksc/masks00:32
oerheksi say, 10% chance..00:33
BrainstormUpdates for Hong Kong: +6063 cases, +18 deaths since a day ago01:10
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: COVID-19 is devastating snow leopards in U.S. zoos, with a death rate of 1 in 50. For comparison, 1 in 340 Americans has died. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/swk34m/covid19_is_devastating_snow_leopards_in_us_zoos/02:00
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +4278 cases since 23 hours ago02:00
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: (((Howard Forman))) (@thehowie): NYC updateAfter unusual data dump yesterday, NYC back to trend. 0.9% positive rate for single day is lowest since October. 7 day moving average is 1.4%, lowest since BEFORE Omicron. If you aren't loosening any remaining mandates now, you will lose the [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/149516584550441369702:09
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): Covid is a systemic disease twitter.com/cleavon_md/sta… → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/149520672250758349002:29
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): Informative overview of observed experience with BA.2 Omicron in #RSA from @Tuliodna twitter.com/tuliodna/statu… → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/149521015832203264702:38
BrainstormUpdates for South Korea: +104828 cases, +51 deaths since a day ago — New Zealand: +2336 cases, +27825 tests (8.4% positive) since a day ago04:05
LjL%title https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1486317677824155648 "slightly" vehement tweets like this are the reason i removed him from the Brainstorm roster04:49
BrainstormLjL: From twitter.com: Anthony J Leonardi, PhD, MS (@fitterhappierAJ): "Remember when they were telling you T cells made it so you were 99% protected from severe outcomes on reinfection? They were wrong They need to concede [...]04:49
LjLbut04:49
LjLis he wrong? if protection from reinfection is low, and reinfection still has a substantial chance of deaths, how are we not poisted to, uhm, die over time, which i realize happens anyway, but, at a faster pace, and due more to COVID than other things? unless we find some breakthrough treatment04:49
LjL(or a vaccine conferring sterile immunity, but if not even multiple reinfections do...?)04:50
LjL(lol this account https://twitter.com/LeonardiBot )04:56
xxcovid is effectively over in all the media in eastern europe, it's all about the ukraine conflict now05:02
xxmakes me think covid only became such a big deal only because media had nothing better at the time05:03
xxwhich also makes me think that the ukraine conflict will be over once the media finds something better to focus on05:03
qkall[m]o.o05:06
LjLxx, sure, covid was just 'cause we were bored. are you in china yet?05:07
qkall[m]ljl again a damn saint05:08
xxI decided to stay, people managed to convince me it's all overblown05:08
xxstill scared, but whatever05:08
LjLi dunno, looked like today Developments happened, but it's all rather complicated and i don't have enough brainpower05:08
LjLby today i mean yesterday05:08
qkall[m]i'm noping out...05:09
xxlike sure, covid was bad, but the media made it sound even worse than it actually was and gave it a disproportionate amount of articles and time05:09
qkall[m]ljl may the sun give you strength05:09
xxand I definitely would not expect the regular person to have any sort of understanding of any of the presented articles anyway05:10
xx(or of written text in general I guess)05:10
LjLqkall[m], i should probably get to see it sometime ;P05:11
LjLxx, covid "was" bad05:11
xxLjL: don't, it causes cataracts and skin cancer05:11
xxwell, in perspective, just in 2022 so far, 8M people died, and in 2019 60M people died, whereas covid only killed nearly 6M in 2 years05:12
LjLin perspective, this is just one planet out of a very large number of them, who the hell cares about it05:13
LjLsometimes there are perspectives that make little sense, in perspective05:13
xxindeed, with a world population of almost 8B, what's the point in caring about a couple million deaths?05:14
LjL%cases05:15
BrainstormLjL: the world has had 426.3 million confirmed cases (5.6% of all people) and 5.9 million deaths (1.4% of cases; 1 in 1286 people) as of 22 hours ago. 5.2 billion tests were done (0.7 per capita, 8.1% positive). 3.4 billion were vaccinated (44.2%). +841 cases since a day ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=the%20world&legacy=no05:15
LjL%tell xx: in perspective, 5.6% of all people (but really many more, let's make it 25% in the countries that measure stuff decently, and they probably still miss stuff) have had COVID and anywhere between 10% and 50% of those have long-term consequences from it, and both numbers are only going to get higher, pretty fast too with the next wave05:16
BrainstormLjL, I'll pass xx your message when they are around.05:16
LjL%tell xx: but also this channel values human life and we CARE if "a couple million" people die and if you don't care, don't be here; if you prefer to be here anyway, then keep these "who cares" thoughts to yourself05:18
BrainstormLjL, I'll pass xx your message when they are around.05:18
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): And while a nitrile group is one way to enhance oral delivery, it's not the only way. We've recently achieved oral bioavailability without nitriles via some imaginative chemistry (patented, sorry Pfizer). This may be a route to drugs better than [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/149525725338903756805:50
BrainstormUpdates for Krasnoyarsk, Russia: +7897 cases, +23 deaths since 23 hours ago — Novosibirsk, Russia: +5483 cases, +9 deaths since 23 hours ago — Sabah, Malaysia: +5359 cases, +7 deaths since 23 hours ago — Bashkortostan, Russia: +4459 cases, +19 deaths since 23 hours ago07:00
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Rajeev (@Rajeev_The_King): Contrary to some tweets, excess deaths and in-hospital COVID-19 deaths have been decreasing in South Africa in recent weeks. pic.twitter.com/qUKQrZQyrj → https://twitter.com/Rajeev_The_King/status/149529064350939955408:22
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Long COVID: For the 1 in 10 patients who become long-haulers, COVID-19 has lasting effects → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/sww453/long_covid_for_the_1_in_10_patients_who_become/08:59
BrainstormNew from Science-Based Medicine: “We’re Pro-Vaccine But”: Can you tell the difference between contrarian doctors and anti-vaccine cranks like Dr. Joe Mercola and RFK Jr.?  Find out for yourself. The post  first appeared on Science-Based Medicine . → https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/provaccine/09:09
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): The legal requirement to self-isolate after catching COVID-19 in England is expected to be dropped from next week, leaving it to the public to exercise their judgement about whether they should stay at home.Would you support the decision to end this rule? → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/149531298707841843609:28
oerheksyes, drop restrictions, forget about BA.209:32
oerhekshttps://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html09:32
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): The study Dr Mahamud is referring to would be this: Massive study reporting a long-term, substantial rise in risk of cardiovascular disease, including heart attack and stroke, after SARS-CoV-2 infection, even after mild disease & in young w/o risk factors [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/149532802404421632010:25
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): Here's the actual paper. Study group>150.000 people w Covid. >5 mill contemporary controls & >5mill historical controls. "Our results provide evidence that the risk and 1-year burden of cardiovascular disease in survivors of acute COVID-19 are substantial" [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/149532933607275315310:34
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Clinical severity of Omicron sub-lineage BA.2 compared to BA.1 in South Africa → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/swxlyd/clinical_severity_of_omicron_sublineage_ba2/10:44
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): "We observed a progressive increase of the autoantibodies targeting autoantigens such as those associated with Alzheimer's disease, antiphospholipid syndrome, multiple sclerosis and other neuroimmune disorders, celiac disease, neuropsychiatric and [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/149533420393593651410:53
TimvdeLjL: you'll have to use your favourite translation service to read it (the site has an English part, but it's missing a lot of content), but is it really so bad in Italy? https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2022/02/15/welkom-in-de-parallelle-wereld-van-de-ongevaccineerden-in-italie/10:59
TimvdeTl;dr is: green pass mandated basically everywhere, resulting in a whole parallel society of unvaccinated people operating outside the law11:00
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): ..type 1 diabetes, immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia, and vitiligo"For specific autoantibodies ➡️medrxiv.org/content/10.110…This may explain some features of long C; why it may take time for symptoms to appear, why they may develop over time, why [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/149533613276628172811:03
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): To conclude: It is of importance that we stop seeing Covid as a respiratory disease. Covid is a systemic disease that can influence the body in ways we are just beginning to understand. This is why caution is still advised, irrespective of hospitalization & [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/149533932566337126411:12
de-facto[m].title https://www.scmp.com/coronavirus11:16
Brainstormde-facto[m]: From www.scmp.com: Coronavirus Pandemic latest news and updates11:16
de-facto[m]Hong Kong got a surge, China pays head money for human trafficing smugglers11:18
de-facto[m]This may be interesting for people from Germany11:24
de-facto[m].title https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=org.tosl.warnappcompanion11:25
Brainstormde-facto[m]: From play.google.com: Warn-App-Companion - Apps on Google Play11:25
de-facto[m]Together with11:25
de-facto[m].title https://f-droid.org/de/packages/de.corona.tracing/11:25
Brainstormde-facto[m]: From f-droid.org: Corona Contact Tracing Germany | F-Droid - Free and Open Source Android App Repository11:28
de-facto[m]Needs root on android though :/11:55
de-facto[m]The companion app11:55
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): The Prime Minister confirms that pharmaceutical interventions will remain our “first line of defence” against COVID.And he says surveillance systems and contingency measures will be retained to stand up if needed - there were reports the @ONS and [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/149534969925518541312:00
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Omicron variant showed lower neutralizing sensitivity than other SARS-CoV-2 variants to immune sera elicited by vaccines after boost → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/swzoj9/omicron_variant_showed_lower_neutralizing/12:56
BrainstormUpdates for Brunei: +2466 cases since a day ago — Latvia: +6776 cases, +909 deaths, +14604 tests (46.4% positive) since a day ago13:02
BrainstormNew from Politico: Hannah Brenton: UK’s Queen Elizabeth tests positive for coronavirus → https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-queen-elizabeth-positive-coronavirus-covid/13:25
xx^ is that the first time she's positive?13:35
ecksyep13:38
xxwell, it's either gonna end up being a wakeup call that covid is not over, or it will be a wakeup call that it is over13:40
ecksI wonder what the CFR is in triple-vaxxed 95yos13:42
AimHereIs Covid even a fatal disease for reptilian overlords?13:43
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Without vaccination Omicron is not mild. Immunity is the only way to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic, with vaccines by far the safest way.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/h… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/149537609452606259513:44
xxAimHere: so far only mammals have been shown to be infectable13:44
xxand a fly for some reason13:44
AimHereThat's one unlucky fly13:44
xxthough I guess it's only the fly having the virus on the surface, not actually replicating it13:45
xxhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8260644/13:45
xx.title13:45
Brainstormxx: From www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: First molecular-based detection of SARS-CoV-2 virus in the field-collected houseflies13:45
xxmosquito nets and other insect barriers are a viable way of preventing this possible method of corona transfer13:46
xxshould have been put into guidelines, but few care about these minor ways13:46
xxpersonally, I'd just eradicate houseflies in cities at least13:47
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Jeffrey Barrett (@jcbarret): Amazing community data analysis, reminiscent of some of the Covid efforts that have sprung up. In addition to all the detected sound editing, the video is comically bad LARPing. twitter.com/eliothiggins/s… → https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/149537936221613670613:53
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +106492 cases since 21 hours ago — Kiribati: +10 cases, +2 deaths since a day ago15:07
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: From “Vaccine Verification” to “Immunity Verification?”: Study highlights elevated levels of antibody response in those with history of COVID-19. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/from-vaccine-verification-to-immunity-verification-15:19
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Covid-19. Scientists left the laboratory for the house of the PortugueseScience communication and active contribution of the nation's scientists to inform, explain, answer questions and help with huge testing and research efforts.noticiasaominuto.com/pais/1936754/c… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/149540455628453069215:29
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Our covid times :-)by @stephanpastis pic.twitter.com/AUNKsudoM3 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149541066853458329715:58
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): More reassuring evidence, from South Africa,  that the BA.2 variant is not associated with an increase in clinical severity compared to its sister Omicron variant, BA.1medrxiv.org/content/10.110… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149541354538671309416:08
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): We have been mentioning for weeks that we were alerted but not concerned about BA.2. Alerted means working hard to produce scientific facts in South Africa to guide the world… twitter.com/erictopol/stat… → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/149541902796297420916:27
BrainstormNew from LitCovid: (news): Comparison of COVID-19 Infection in Children During the First and Second Wave. → https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/publication/3518238217:05
ZdrytchX.cases australia17:21
BrainstormZdrytchX: Australia has had 3.0 million confirmed cases (11.8% of all people) and 4913 deaths (0.2% of cases; 1 in 5222 people) as of 2 hours ago. 62.9 million tests were done (2.5 per capita, 4.8% positive). 20.5 million were vaccinated (79.8%). +7307 cases since 13 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia&legacy=no17:21
ZdrytchX.cases westernaustralia17:21
BrainstormZdrytchX: the world has had 426.9 million confirmed cases (5.6% of all people) and 5.9 million deaths (1.4% of cases; 1 in 1286 people) as of 10 hours ago. 5.3 billion tests were done (0.7 per capita, 8.1% positive). 3.4 billion were vaccinated (44.2%). +525 cases since 23 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=the%20world&legacy=no17:21
s4ml1nd3v.cases hungary17:36
Brainstorms4ml1nd3v: Hungary has had 1.7 million confirmed cases (17.9% of all people) and 43066 deaths (2.5% of cases; 1 in 227 people) as of a day ago. 9.1 million tests were done (0.9 per capita, 19.1% positive). 6.3 million were vaccinated (64.1%). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Hungary&legacy=no17:36
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A new, 6th study from Italy shows that natural immunity + 1-dose vaccine protects better than Prior Covid alone, and there was no added protection with more dosesmedrxiv.org/cgi/content/sh… @ElenaFlaccoUpdated summary of all the highly consistent reports, 5 in [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149544362017373388818:12
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): You might say with millions dead of COVID19, it's not appropriate to pay too much attention to one. I'd say we should take inspiration from individual stories, and the Queen's is a relevant one. If we lose appreciation for the individual, then we [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/149544717775740109118:22
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): I agree! Speculation OC43 caused 1889-90 pandemic rather than flu has gotten ahead of evidence. In favor of OC43 we only have extrapolation of molecular clock further than should be done. In favor of flu we have serology @MichaelWorobey mentions plus opinions of [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/149544894929739776518:31
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Controversial doctor group touts ivermectin as long COVID treatment: What to know → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/sx6ghd/controversial_doctor_group_touts_ivermectin_as/18:41
BrainstormUpdates for Myanmar: +3303 cases, +4 deaths, +37436 tests (8.8% positive) since a day ago — Italy: +42202 cases, +141 deaths, +372776 tests (11.3% positive) since 23 hours ago19:05
LjL-Matrixde-facto: it doesn't need root if you use it with microG though ;)19:05
LjL-Matrix(Okay fair enough installing microG needs more than root)19:05
LjL-MatrixTimvde: I'll read it later because I'm using the phone and Google stubbornly refuses to translate a website on this browser. But from what I can read of the headline and the start, yeah, I don't know if it should be called "bad", but a green pass is needed for pretty much everything and I don't know why they don't just make the vaccine mandatory instead, because I'm practice it's the same just with a lot more QR code. But Germany was also19:08
LjL-Matrixlike this until recently (probably still is but I read they were removing some measures now)19:08
ArsaneritGermany removed vaccine mandates for shops19:09
Arsaneritwhich probably didn't have much impact on reducing infections or improving vaccinations anymore19:09
LjL-MatrixArsanerit, Timvde: well in Italy if I'm not mistaken we never had actual vaccine mandates for shops, a "base green pass" (aka 3G using the German term) is enough, meaning you can get a negative test. But since late January at least you need *some* form of pass for shops except those that sell essential items. AFAIK France had also similar restrictions, it's more Belgium that's the exception if it doesn't I think...19:15
LjL-MatrixOf course now the latest fashion is "removing all restrictions" so since I don't stay entirely up to date, things may change fast, and in Italy they usually change a bit slower and they've said green pass requirements won't go away even on 31 March when the emergency state ends. So I guess it's possible we'll keep this stuff when other countries have gotten rid of it, but for now...19:16
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: The Prefrontal Vortex (@LearningPillars): My latest in the Atlantic:To heal from the pandemic, it's time to demask, get back to normal and finally awaken Cthulu, lying in wait in the city of R'lyeh. This constant source of anxiety must be removed, even if one glance upon his [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/LearningPillars/status/149546110064042394119:20
LjLItaly's positive rate (positives/total tests) has been at around 11% since February 4. more than two weeks ago. and yet the "case count" has been steadily, smoothly decreasing, showing almost a mirror image of the way it rose. i don't know how i'm not supposed to believe it's an artifact of progressively lowered testing ;(19:29
LjLi must give it to xx (and maybe others, but xx is what shows up when i grep logs for "it's over") that she said politicians had decided it was going to be "over" back around January 20 at least ;(19:31
LjLand since then, a few countries have effectively lifted all restrictions, and others like Italy haven't but they're giving the same impression with a smooth lowering of cases despite no lowering of the positive rate19:31
xxwas just a "lucky" guess, though based on observation of human behavior19:32
xxlooks like even austria is dropping the mandatory vaccines, and they were the only country to even mandate them in the first place19:33
xxwhich of course spells trouble if a new variant comes out at end of summer, because many people will have missed out on vaccinations/boosters19:34
xxI have a friend north of italy in some famous ski resort, and apparently there's no restrictions at all, no checking of any vaccination status, nobody wearing masks, ...19:36
xximagine if one cleaner was sick and walks into all the rooms without a mask19:37
xxand everyone then flies home to their respective countries/continents19:37
xxthat's how it started in europe in march 202019:38
LjLxx, which is kind of how the big spread started in 2020 from... around the same places you're probably talking about19:38
LjLjinx19:38
xxyeah, kinda shows that humans can't or don't wish to learn from past experience19:38
xxit's only been 2 years... surely they couldn't have forgotten19:38
xxnext we'll be hearing about a cruise ship outbreak19:39
ecksthis is why i am only going to domestic ski resorts this winter19:39
-Bridgestorm- 🏠 Linog! Lindol! Earthquake! 5.8 M tremor, registered by GFZ,alomax, with 40 reports, 13 early, occurred 9 minutes ago (18:29:25 UTC), duing a gibbous moon night, Mindanao, Philippines (6.06, 126.36) ± 49 km likely felt 240 km away (in Tagum, Panabo, Tacurong, General Santos, Davao City…) by 3.5 million people (www.seismicportal.eu)19:39
LjL<Timvde> Tl;dr is: green pass mandated basically everywhere, resulting in a whole parallel society of unvaccinated people operating outside the law  ←  ah i missed this part. yeah i don't know how true it is because... i'm not part of that hidden society :P but i've definitely heard things like that from investigative journalism reports, like they have a website or app with a neat map of all the places all over italy that will let you in without checking your pass19:40
xxand cops don't do undercover operations? Or they just know they can't persecute them anyway?19:42
xxI don't remember reading about a single case of a business being fined out of existence, it's always been just a slap on the wrist19:43
LjLxx, cops sometimes bust them, but resources are limited, it being italy and all19:45
xxit being italy (from what I've heard) the cops don't really want to bust them anyway19:45
LjLyeah i have a suspicion that for the businesses that do this, it's worth the risk19:45
LjLsure, depends on the place, but there may be some collusion19:46
LjLnow they've reopened dance clubs / night clubs (still called "discos" in italy), which is the thing that has stayed closed for the longest time, especially after some of them were responsible for some... rather irresponsible superspreading events19:46
xxif a business can make enough money to pay the fine through only a couple hours of operation (such as remaining open during the most lucrative hours of the night) then of course they'd risk it. It's just cost of doing business at that point.19:46
LjLin theory you need the green pass but how are police going to get into a place like that and ask people for their green passes? it just isn't going to happen imo19:47
LjLxx, at minimum there should be a considerable time of forced closure19:47
LjLfines are just a calculator away from being evened out19:48
xxnot a single gov in the west has the courage for stuff like that19:48
LjLxx, well, at least they *did* keep *all* clubs closed for two years after they fucked up bad19:48
LjLitaly i mean19:48
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Theo Sanderson (@theosanderson): And a log-scale version (with the proviso that the early points for BA.2 will mostly not actually be BA.2 due to the use of SGTP proxy) pic.twitter.com/EuD1QRpI20 → https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/149546957140650394419:48
xxlook how scared the canadian gov is, and it's just a few unarmed truckers against them19:48
xxLjL: were the clubs *really* closed though? Pretty sure people still found a way.19:49
xxI've heard of secret clubs in berlin, in some places in austria, etc.19:49
LjLsure, possible, i wouldn't know19:49
LjLa big enough apartment can become a "club" if you want it to19:49
xxor just regular clubs, but closed for a "private function by invitation only"19:50
LjLrich people can party, that's a given19:50
xxwith enough soundproofing, anything can happen and nobody will know19:50
xxpay off the neighbors too and you're golden19:50
xxright, those UK ministers did party19:51
xxI'm surprised that the UK queen is not making bigger news19:51
LjLxx, but then again you were saying "nobody has the courage...", i'm saying that while it's not the exact thing you were saying, there *was* some courage to do rather tough things. many clubs have definitely gone bankrupt due to it (i bet mostly the ones who'd have been more willing to respect the rules, as it goes). the fact that people found ways around it anyway that are nearly impossible to check is a bit of a different matter19:51
xxhad it happened 1 year ago, it would have been pinned message at the top of all commonwealth news websites19:51
LjLxx, why would she make news? it's over, Omicron is mild, she's just got a flu ;)19:51
xxyeah, effectively yet another declaration that it's over19:52
xxa 95yo person gets covid, who cares, it's just the sniffles19:52
xxthough in general women have much better outcomes than men, and it still isn't properly explained why19:53
xxoh her son is apparently infected too, for the 2nd time19:53
xxand he's old19:53
LjLtbf if you're 95 you're kind of at that point in the life expectancy curve where the curve goes "you're dying... oh wait, 95 you said? yikes, if you got that far, maybe you'll get to 100"19:53
xxbetty white didn't19:53
xxneeded 17 more days19:54
LjLxx, an italian would call it a pretty bad-luck-inducing idea to announce such a party in advance19:54
xxsame as wishing a happy birthday in advance19:54
LjLyeah19:54
LjLat least if you're 9919:54
LjLtbf *this* italian answers a standard "fuck off" to anyone wishing him happy birthday in general19:55
LjL(technically expressed by a meek mumbled "thanks, yeah, i guess")19:55
xxyeah birthdays are weird, I don't like them and never celebrated mine19:55
xxplus they probably spread disease. Wonder if people will go back to blowing out the candles on a cake, spitting out saliva over a food consumed by others19:56
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +25539 cases, +74 deaths since 23 hours ago20:07
de-factowhoa20:07
de-facto.title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KicPNTd6bcs20:07
Brainstormde-facto: From www.youtube.com: Queen Elizabeth tests positive for Covid - BBC News - YouTube20:07
xxyeah20:08
xxand I keep being surprised how everyone is just 'meh' when I was always told before just how much that queen is cherished by her subjects20:08
de-facto.title https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-6045356620:08
Brainstormde-facto: From www.bbc.com: The Queen tests positive for Covid - BBC News20:08
de-factoGod save the Queen!20:09
de-factoi wish her good recovery20:09
xxmaybe god shouldn't have given the queen covid?20:09
LjLxx, most britons i know don't like her, but i may just know weird brits. and i believe canada's public opinion is always close to wanting to become a republic. not sure about australia20:09
de-factoshe is 95 now20:09
xxLjL: I don't really know anything about her, beyond that she's old20:10
LjLher successor is going to be even less likely, i'll wager that much20:11
LjLliked*20:11
de-factoidk i am not even UK citizen, but i somehow like her20:11
de-factoi really hope she is going to be fine20:12
de-facto"Prince Charles, 73, tested positive on 10 February - he met with the Queen on 8 February. Covid symptoms generally appear from two to 14 days after exposure to the virus."20:14
LjLi'd say 14 days is very much the far end20:15
de-factoespecially with Omicron20:15
LjLfrom what i've heard the queen has met other people since20:15
de-factothey could sequence both to determine that, if that is of any value20:15
de-factoi wonder if they sill start her on antivirals early (just as prevention) or just let her deal with it by herself20:18
xxgetting covid *from* the queen must be a badge of honor20:20
xxthough giving covid to the queen must make one some sort of public enemy surely20:20
de-factoe.g. give her Nirmatrelvir and some mAbs able to clamp onto whatever lineage infected the Queen20:21
de-factothey are speaking of "mild" cold-like symptoms so far, her being able to carry out part of her normal duties20:24
de-factohopefully "freedom day" does not result into events leading to loosing the Queen20:31
de-factoback in 2020 with the old variants and without vaccines an age of 95 would be a severe risk for not surviving an infection with COVID20:34
de-facto%ifr 9520:34
Brainstormde-facto, for every 2 infections at that age, one would progress to a fatal outcome, on average.20:34
de-factoso now with vaccination and omicron that may be 1-2 orders of magnitude lower possibly, but still that would be one in 20 or 200 depending on circumstances20:35
de-factoat least possibly, its always a probability game20:35
de-factono certain estimates could be made for individual cases, just for the average outcome of large cohorts20:36
de-factodamn i really hope she will recover20:38
ArsaneritStatistically, the annual death risk of a 95 year old is probably in excess of 1 in 20 already without COVID?21:02
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Rapid increases in paediatric COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations mirror high community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant in Tshwane District, South Africa. → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/149548770109684531921:03
LjLi find 1/20 and 1/200 a bit optimistic, but i dunno really21:04
LjL%ifr 9521:05
BrainstormLjL, for every 2 infections at that age, one would progress to a fatal outcome, on average, in unvaccinated people with the original variant.21:05
LjLargh extra space21:05
LjLnow it sounds french21:05
ArsaneritThat shows as ^I here, which is a tab character21:06
LjLoh, well, i've removed it anyway21:06
LjLbut not until next bot restart21:07
LjLit would be nice to have fatality estimates for the various variants with and without vaccines but i suspect we'd find a number of different estimates and maybe no easy formula for age ranges21:07
Arsaneritit would also be nice to have background fatality rate per age group for comparison21:10
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +3163 cases, +25 deaths since 19 hours ago21:11
LjLArsanerit, over what, two weeks, a year, two years...? i don't think it's comparable because this is giving the *infection* fatality rate, i.e. once you know you're infected, how likely you are to die. it's not "overall death risk from COVID over a time period"21:12
LjLwhat you can compare is the number that comes up here21:12
LjL%cases italy21:12
BrainstormLjL: Italy has had 12.5 million confirmed cases (20.7% of all people) and 152989 deaths (1.2% of cases; 1 in 394 people) as of 2 hours ago. 184.1 million tests were done (3.1 per capita, 6.8% positive). 48.5 million were vaccinated (80.6%). See https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-dashboard or https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/21:12
LjLso 1 out of every 394 people died of COVID in Italy over the span of 2 years21:12
LjLin 2019, the general death rate in italy was 10 out of 100021:14
LjLso you he 1 out of 100 which is the normal death rate to which you add 1 out of 788 (since it's two years)21:14
TuvixFrom CDC data anyway, the age-breakdown in death follows similar trends (although some slight variations between waves in age-groups, eg, Alpha vs. Delta, etc.) I expect the trend is similar most countries though, as age, especially for the older groups, is a risk factor.21:14
LjLyou have*21:14
ArsaneritI have a "low risk encounter" in the Corona-Warn-App.21:17
LjL<Brainstorm> New from The Indian Express: World: Israel to allow in all tourists regardless of COVID vaccination status → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/israel-to-allow-in-all-tourists-regardless-of-covid-vaccination-status-7782971/21:20
LjLit's over! holiday time! \o/21:21
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections by intranasal or testicular inoculation induces testicular damage preventable by vaccination in golden Syrian hamsters → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sxa6ih/severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2/21:22
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The never ending bias of reporting that people age 18-49 lack benefit of booster shots vs Covid hospitalization: the relative benefit the same in all age groups; absolute benefit per 100,000 people is substantialnytimes.com/2022/02/20/hea…+ @CDCgov had the data, [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149549484401349427221:32
BrainstormUpdates for France: +59003 cases since 23 hours ago22:01
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: 'We're doing everything we can to survive': As US looks to move on from Covid-19, high risk and disabled Americans feel forgotten → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/sxaoeo/were_doing_everything_we_can_to_survive_as_us/22:57
LjLheated discussion there (surprise)23:03
LjLi don't even know who to "side with" myself anymore though23:04
TuvixI frankly haven't been able to deal with most of the social media comments given the low Signal-to-Noise of the majority of comments on the usual social platforms.23:04
LjLi don't want to wear masks forever. yes i do find them massively inconvenient, they give me sore throats and itchy yes... i've worn them more attentively than most people for two years, i'm reading to keep wearing them for more time, but *forever* because we have determined the threat will just not go away? no i'm not signing up for that23:05
LjLi'm ready*23:05
TuvixSometimes they're useful to skim if I'm looking for an article/study summary to decide if it's even worth reading, but the comments are often so sub-standard and along ideological or political lines as to not be useful, combined with their low-effort quality I've come to expect.23:05
TuvixMy go-to mask is actually quite comfortable even for long periods, moreso with the liner sponge that helps reduce moisture as it's a non-valve filter. The only drawback is that if I used it more (ie: went out places more often I felt I needed it) I'd go through replacable filters a lot more frequently.23:06
TuvixI don't plan on using it forever, but most of the US remains in "high" community spread currently, the CDC's highest of 4 per-county ratings.23:07
TuvixAll this talk about the US relaxing mask mandates is a bit of a misnomer because many places either never had them or had such weak rules when exceptions, lack of enforcement, and poor quality masks permitted as to not be hugely impactful anyway.23:10
TuvixPlaces like NYC are a bit of an exception; around me the whole city had indoor mask requirements through mid-2021, but stores typically did little more than post the notice on doors (if they even did that) and never bothered to confront customers not following them.23:10
LjLthe Reddit comments give a clue on the US views of this stuff, like the person saying "nobody is proposing lockdowns anymore" (or similar, paraphrasing). maybe you already know the general viewpoint, but it's informational to me.23:35
TuvixLockdowns haven't really been a thing either since perhaps 1st half of 2021, at latest. The ones we did have were fairly weakly enforced, and largely employer-driven to begin with.23:36
TuvixIt was very odd going into a towndown metro for work one workday in 2020; I'd hoped to leave before the typical rush-hour as I wasn't sure how many "essential workers" were out an about (legit or not, since enforcement was basically just a reminder to please do the right thing.) Turns out the usually busy downtown was a near ghost-town.23:37
Tuvixdowntown*23:38
TimvdeLjL: lol, our positivity rate is still almost 30% and they opened night life23:39
TuvixThat's Germany, right? Since the bulk of the case-spike for Omicron is basically occurring now, it'll be interesting to compare resulting impact from ICUs & deaths. Vaccination will play a part in that, although so will social behavior such as opening indoor venues like that.23:40
TimvdeWe have an "advise" to work from home (but employers can require you to come in anyway), you still need masks or a pass in some places and events can only go to 70% capacity unless they can keep CO2 below 900 ppm, I think that's about all measure that are left23:41
TimvdeTuvix: I'm in Belgium23:41
ecksa CO2 ppm limit? interesting23:41
eckswhat's that, surrogate marker for good ventilation?23:41
TuvixAh, my mistake, sounded similar to some German discussion earlier this month, and the death comparison from Delta waves/peaks didn't look a ton different comparing .de to .us23:42
Timvdeecks: yes23:42
ecksinteresting, is that backed by any sort of evidence?23:43
TuvixI've seen prior technical reports mentioning CO2 as a metric, but I don't know offhand a reference for how to map CO2 buildup to airflow quality.23:44
TimvdeI haven't looked into it, but it intuitively makes sense, right?23:44
ecksyeah, but i would be interested to see if there's evidence for correlation between CO2 levels and increased spread of covid23:44
TuvixAs you add people to a fixed space they'll produce more CO2 though, so the science is reasonably sound given that you aren't pulling in enough fresh-air to offset the CO2 buildup.23:44
ecksi mean, sure, CO2 correlates to ventilation correlates to spread, at least intuitively, but i wonder if it deos that in the real world23:45
ecksnot to mention it sounds hard to study without a zillion confounders23:45
Timvdehttps://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/04/210407143809.htm23:45
TuvixRight, that's the real question, is how _much_ of a correlation there is. With Omicron, I'd imagine there's an log-scale droppoff because once you get enough people to encourage spread, adding a few more people, smaller space, and/or worse airflow, you're still going to end up exposing nearly everyone anyway.23:45
Timvde(Disclaimer: just the first thing I found when searching that looked okay, haven't checked how trust-worthy the source really is)23:46
TuvixI mean, if I had 5 guests over for an hour in my rather small home, would it really make much of a difference if we assume only 1 was positive regardless of guest counts, if I had 15 guests and had them over for 3 hours?23:46
TuvixI'm really going to guess that it wouldn't. If they're breathing and having a good time (presumably without masks to exclude that as a variable) I suspect if they were shedding virus, we'd all be exposed in fairly short order regardless.23:47
LjL<Timvde> LjL: lol, our positivity rate is still almost 30% and they opened night life ← we're at about the same amount of positives per day per capita (Belgium and Italy). whether your positives are really more because you're under-testing... maybe, but always hard to determine23:48
TuvixWould we all be positive? Maybe not, depends on immune response and viral load of the positive-case, but that's not really the issue if you're considering environment as a fixed factor.23:48
LjLhttp://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy;Belgium&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&legacy=no are pretty much touching today23:48
TimvdeLjL: we changed our testing strategy to test less, yes23:48
TimvdeThe positivity ratio skyrocketed then23:48
LjLas usual, the other country has more cases, but Italy has more deaths. always a pattern i see :\23:48
TuvixUS vs. Belgium shows similar ICU impact from Delta, and a similar though slighty smaller and narrower Delta fatality impact: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2021-05-25..latest&Metric=Vaccine+doses%2C+cases%2C+ICU+patients%2C+and+deaths&country=USA~BEL23:49
ecksman I still wonder what the hell happened in Belgium during the early pandemic23:49
TimvdeTuvix: according to the article, it does make a difference. Note that it doesn't need to fully solve the problem to be impactful, of course23:49
ecksthey were on a completely different level from the rest of the EU23:50
Timvdeecks: proper reporting, as far as I can tell, tbh23:50
TuvixIf the ICU & deaths in Belgium have really already peaked, that means they did a lot better with Omicron, perhaps due to vaccination and what litmits were in place earlier?23:50
LjLi believe good airflow can be expected to be *massively* helpful23:50
TimvdeIn the early pandemic, we were one of the only countries where the number of COVID deaths actually matched the excess deaths23:50
TuvixSure, but that's exactly why I still avoid the sports club becuase there's no way to get proper airflow, certainly not in the indoor clubhouse in winter.23:51
TimvdeSorry, that was at ecks23:51
ecksyeah i guess so23:51
ecksbut the Z-score was pretty high for Belgium23:51
ecksonly exceeded by Spain and the UK from what I can tell23:51
TuvixWe can't open doors/windows for fresh air as we barely have enough propane to keep the club warm between top-offs (and doing so would easily double or triple gas costs.)23:51
ecks(for excess mortality that is)23:51
TuvixThe space is closed, and the HVAC is fully recirculating in winter, and they often have 10 to 30 people on any given weekend, depending on turnout (average is maybe 12-15, and some don't stay all-day, while others do & stay well after sundown)23:52
Timvdeecks: we're also one of the most densely populated countries, but I don't know if that really makes a big difference23:52
TuvixThat venue description makes me very worried to spend time there, given no masking and a significant portion still unvaccinated who don't test.23:52
LjLTuvix, if you can't have natural airflow there should be powerful air purifiers (UV kills the virus for instance). take the analogy for what it is but i saw a tweet on the other day that went like "we didn't get rid of Cholera by telling people to boil their water, we defeated it by building sanitation infrastructure. this is a respiratory virus, if our air cleanness infrastructure is limited, we should invest on it"23:52
TimvdeWhat's the Z score btw?23:52
ecksbasically number of standard deviations above/below normal23:53
TuvixWell, they're not going to invest in air-handling either. Even the HVAC filters are literally the cheapest option the hardware store sells.23:53
LjLthis had already been said by papers fairly early on in the pandemic, but they were papers written by people in the air conditioning engineering industry, so they were taken as speaking for their own interests. which maybe they were, but i don't know who all the "it's not 'real' airborne! just droplets!" crowd was speaking for, tbh, because that was bullshit23:53
TuvixIt's basically just a glorified dust-trap, and not a good one at that.23:53
LjLTimvde, the Z-score is used by EuroMoMo to indicate how much excess mortality a given country has, because for some reason, [some of] the countries that provide it with the data don't want the actual death numbers to be shown23:54
TuvixEven if they bought a couple of high-quality machines, I still think it's a bad venue to be in until things are better around me. Lots of loud discussion, close-contact, poor airflow, and typically food by day and drink after-hours. Closest I can compare it to would be a fairly small bar that's moderately crowded.23:55
TuvixI don't know about you all, but I'm not spending 2 to 6 hours in a bar these-days :P23:55
ecksi actually skipped out on going clubbing this weekend due to covid23:56
LjLTuvix, if they "aren't going to", make them, would be the idea. i.e. sure tell people to "boil their water" if you want (i.e. wear masks and wash their hands, with COVID); but at the same time, force indoor places to have adequate clean air. if you can mandate masks for individuals, put your mouth where you money is and mandate airflow for venues. of course, in the US, apparently you can't mandate either, so...23:56
TimvdeTuvix: on a personal level, that's very reasonable if you're still concerned about the virus23:56
TuvixI tried to force their hand, and got met with anti-science and protest on the email list.23:56
LjLTuvix, yeah, i'm saying "you" as in the government, i don't expect you personally to be able to force them23:56
TuvixRight, short of a mandate with enforcement teeth, they won't do anything.23:57
TimvdeBut on a national level, when people want to go back to a more normal life, it makes sense on the larger scale for the government to require better airflow to keep the overall numbers lower23:57
TuvixThey even refused to *ask* (not even require) their own volunteer-staff to get tested after hours of known contact with a positive case we had.23:57
TuvixI was literally told by the owner that "we can't ask [them] to test"23:57
TimvdeThey don't care about you or any of the people in there in particular, they want to keep the overall numbers manageable23:57
ecksthis is why i maximize my time spent on planes, they have HEPA filters and stuff23:58
TuvixRight, the risk isn't really a declining (if they really *continue* to decline, important point here) impact, but the impact of sustained spread or a resurgence of existing or new VoCs.23:58
TuvixI'm a little concerned most other countries seem to be seeing a far faster decline in death, but that was true with the US when comparing Delta's really bad/slow recovery here in the States.23:58
LjLby the way, the masks, we don't like to talk about it, but the masks (except for the reusable respirators like the one you use, kudos to you Tuvix, and dTal too, but i'm afraid having everyone wear those will be met with strong resistance) are horribly polluting. they cost money, imagine the amount of money for instance to give each school kid a new mask each day (i'm using this example because they *have* to replace it each day in school here), and imagine the23:59
LjLsheer amount of plastic and the HUGE environmental costs, that adds to a situation where we had just about understood that our plastic was polluting *incredibly* much. right now we're doing the mask thing and shutting up about the environment because we'd like to stay alive, but it's not tenable "forever"23:59
TimvdeTuvix: the government has clearly stated that with the current release of restrictions, they expect the numbers to plateau (instead of going down like they are now), but that they expect thet hospitals and ICU to manage23:59
TuvixYea, that's part of the reason I'm so happy not to have one or even dozen-use and then dispose of them style masks.23:59

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