| Timvde | People can still individually be more careful, which is why I didn't go out dancing with my friends yesterday | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| Tuvix | The only waste I produce is a tiny plastic bag just larger than the filter, and the filters themselves, and I only replace mine about once a month as I don't go anywhere but shopping and some rare trips for family. | 00:00 |
| Tuvix | But, indeed, if I had to dispose of a KN95/N95 mask after the fit started to fail, or the straps broke or couldn't provide pressure anymore, I'd be producing a lot more waste. | 00:00 |
| Timvde | I definitely use my FFP2 masks for longer than 8 hours because of both waste and cost | 00:02 |
| LjL | Timvde, sorry if i'm boring because i already linked this twice, but there's a country that concerns me if it should be expected to potentially be what happens when "the numbers plateau": http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Greece&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&legacy=no 'cause i don't know what caused this, i know their restrictions were progressively removed but likely *more* slowly than many other countries, and they don't have much BA.2 either... but it suddenly | 00:02 |
| LjL | stopped decreasing and plateaued, like very suddenly, and the plateau level is scarily high imo | 00:02 |
| Timvde | But I tell myself that it's still better than the chirurgical masks | 00:02 |
| Tuvix | And yea, the issue isn't real the level of death or cases as you point out Timvde, but the impact to core society services like hospitals and emergency response. | 00:02 |
| LjL | well, i'd say the issue is both. | 00:03 |
| Timvde | They're obviously linked | 00:03 |
| Tuvix | I mean, what the US is doing is basically normalizing a higher rate of death than almost any other EU country and many of our other global peers, but if that's "acceptable" to have a rate of 4 to 15 times the annual influenza deaths, then that's the cost of living here I suppose. | 00:03 |
| Timvde | But cases by itself isn't an issue | 00:03 |
| LjL | deaths are many, and long-term consequences are also scary. if you aren't scared for yourself, think about a workforce with suddenly 10% or so missing from it and another 20% unable to work the same as before | 00:03 |
| Timvde | I am personally still careful because I really want to avoid getting long COVID | 00:04 |
| Tuvix | Right, with my booster and outcomes for my age-group, I'm actually less concerned about acute symptoms at this point, and more concerned about impact after recovery, or just a really long/crappy recovery that lasts weeks/months. | 00:04 |
| Tuvix | If it was just infection, at this point I might have already carefully started returning to venues during off-hours for a buffet lunch at a pizza joint I usd to go to a couple times a month. | 00:04 |
| ecks | surely denmark should be in a dire situation by now, then, given almost half of the population has been infected? | 00:04 |
| Tuvix | Depends on a few other factors though, including vaccination and hospital capacity. | 00:05 |
| Timvde | With the current decline in cases, I hope things to be low-risk enough in maybe a month or so to also go back to a more normal life | 00:05 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i don't see how *anywhere*, whether it's the US or the EU, can go back to a rate comparable to the annual influenza, unless we have some big breakthrough that i just can't see atm (variant-specific vaccines seem to be a flop, treatments exist but are still very limited in scope, and intranasal vaccines may be useful but if not even Omicron itself protects against Omicron with over 50% efficacy, then i can't expect better). that's the discussion i was having | 00:06 |
| LjL | with dTal the other day: i don't see us getting back to a "normal" which i personally define as having deaths on the same order of magnitude as what we had without COVID, and his response is basically the "new normal": by definition, "normal" is whatever we reach as an equilibrium. but if that's the case, *personally*, i think i'll have a lot of trouble accepting that as normality. | 00:06 |
| Tuvix | Denmark is clearly having a much worse Omicron than Delta, looking at deaths anyway. Less of an ICU hit compared to somewhere like the US though. | 00:06 |
| Timvde | And I'm like, that one month will not make a huge difference anymore :p | 00:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +65 deaths since 23 hours ago — France: +1 deaths since 2 hours ago | 00:06 |
| Timvde | I haven't been careful for so long to throw it all away now | 00:06 |
| Timvde | Tuvix: yes, same here... Our ICU is much less full that with delta, but we do have a similar number of deaths | 00:07 |
| LjL | Tuvix, i've noticed something, in some places anyway, not sure if Denmark, seemingly showing a decoupling of ICUs and deaths (deaths being the same or more, but ICU being less). i don't quite understand what the dynamics of that could be: are more people dropping dead at home rather than going to hospital? O.o | 00:07 |
| Tuvix | LjL: Sure, but frankly I'd settle for better understood outcomes (including more data/protection/treatments/etc for long-covid) and a less-obscene rate of death. Maybe an annual rate on-part with 2-4x the seasonal flu. | 00:07 |
| Timvde | Does that mean people are just dying faster in the ICU? | 00:07 |
| Tuvix | Trouble is, that the US has seen, at *best* a ~2x flu deth rate, and that was for only a couple weeks mid-summer 2021. | 00:07 |
| LjL | Tuvix, well, that would be "the same order of magnitude", for some definition | 00:07 |
| LjL | Timvde, i guess that's another possibility than the one i mentioned ;( | 00:08 |
| Tuvix | Right, something far under 1 order of magnitude, which is where the US sits now (a bit over for aveages, and clearly over based on current death rates.) | 00:08 |
| LjL | Timvde, but in that case i guess you'd have to look at the total number of people who end up in ICU, rather than ICU occupation | 00:08 |
| ecks | probably more deaths with covid rather than from covid that explain the discrepancy between icu and deaths | 00:08 |
| Timvde | LjL: I don't think those numberd are public for Belgium, which I have always found strangd | 00:09 |
| LjL | uh | 00:09 |
| LjL | you've found that strange because it is strange | 00:09 |
| Tuvix | So, basically my level of acceptance (though I'll still grumble about it) is somewhere between an order of magnitude worse death than 0 and 1. Maybe a target of a half-order-of-magnitude, give or take. | 00:09 |
| Tuvix | 10^0.5 ≈ 3x flu, using annual averages. | 00:09 |
| Tuvix | Provided long-covid is managable, I'll largely shrug and call it a new risk of death at that point. But 3x is a lot differnet than Saturday's CDC death rate of 18.9x influenza. | 00:10 |
| Tuvix | That's ≈1.3 orders of magnitude worse, and that's just considering fatalities, not long-COVID. | 00:11 |
| LjL | Timvde, just confirming... https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/hospitalizations/covid-hospitalizations.csv has both "ICU occupancy" and "new ICU admissions" for various countries, but Belgium appears to only have data for the former | 00:13 |
| Timvde | It's especially weird because we have a quite detailed dashboard | 00:14 |
| Timvde | Just that one piece of information is missing | 00:14 |
| Tuvix | US deaths broken down by age, now updated through Jan 2022 (data appears 95% complete or so, useful enough to be reasonably accurate for last month finally.) https://imgur.com/dbEaxFQ | 00:15 |
| Tuvix | Notably, our under-50 year old age group is seeing similar death tolls from Omicron as during Alpha (prior winter) pre-vaccines. | 00:16 |
| Tuvix | Over 50's are doing better than last-winter still, but worse than Delta, making up enough of the increased fatalities that pushed Omicron over the line to give it a higher peak rate of death than even Delta. | 00:17 |
| LjL | %cases belgium | 00:22 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Belgium has had 3.5 million confirmed cases (30.3% of all people) and 29920 deaths (0.9% of cases; 1 in 385 people) as of a day ago. 31.4 million tests were done (2.7 per capita, 11.1% positive). 8.9 million were vaccinated (77.3%). See https://epistat.wiv-isp.be/covid/ | 00:22 |
| LjL | that's one of the highest overall confirmed case percentages i think i've seen | 00:23 |
| LjL | maybe i better make sure Brainstorm is prepared to handle >100% cases because there was some headline earlier about "2 out of 3" cases in the UK being found to be reinfections | 00:24 |
| Timvde | LjL: I know that compared to the Netherlands, we did a lot of testing, but I don't know how it compares against other countries | 00:24 |
| LjL | i didn't read the article under that headline, but at some point it kind of makes sense: the people who have the ability and wealth to shield themselves from the virus will continue to do so, and for example, not take public transport... while the people who need to physically go to work, be exposed to people, take public transport, or they won't have money for dinner, those people will get infected not once, but several times, given the lack of protection from | 00:25 |
| LjL | reinfections | 00:25 |
| Tuvix | Yea, that's one more reason I don't like cases since it's very hard especially with Omicron to know if differences are a sign of more cases, or different test handling and social behaviors around testing/reporting. | 00:25 |
| LjL | (boy do i hate it when my long messages are just one word too long to fit in one IRC message) | 00:25 |
| LjL | that's not what i said, reinfections are still cases | 00:25 |
| LjL | they are "just" cases happening more than once on the same person | 00:25 |
| Timvde | % cases UK | 00:26 |
| LjL | it's not an error in testing/reporting, it's just something we hadn't considered an important phenomenon in interpreting the data so far, because "reinfections were few rare cases" (lolk) | 00:26 |
| Timvde | Oops, no space | 00:26 |
| Timvde | %cases UK | 00:26 |
| Brainstorm | Timvde: United Kingdom has had 18.7 million confirmed cases (28.2% of all people) and 161148 deaths (0.9% of cases; 1 in 412 people) as of 4 hours ago. 475.0 million tests were done (7.1 per capita, 3.9% positive). 51.8 million were vaccinated (78.0%). See https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ | 00:26 |
| Timvde | Nvm, that's a looooottt more tests | 00:26 |
| Tuvix | Sure, though let's say that in theory everyonoe got infected on average twice a year (some more, some less.) 200% would reflect that figure if testing was accurate enough to extrapolate to the whole population fully. | 00:27 |
| Tuvix | I don't think testing _is_ accurate enough, especially as it seems to rise & fall based on how bad the spread is in a given location. | 00:27 |
| LjL | Timvde, yes, if you look at the death rate it's similar to Italy's even though Italy has "fewer cases" (and much, much fewer tests). although i can't disentangle this, because i also keep having the feeling Italy genuinely has more deaths. so i don't know. but for sure, the UK is king at testing | 00:27 |
| LjL | Tuvix, sure, i'm not saying testing *is* accurate enough either, just that it wasn't the point i was making :P | 00:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The totality of evidence now supports:"Fully vaccinated" = 3-shots or Natural Immunity + 1-shot /5 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1495545191444336641 | 00:51 |
| oerheks | someone tell eric topol about Ba.2 | 00:54 |
| Tuvix | oerheks: You mean like him linking studies specifically about BA.2? Yes, he does seem to review the recently published information about BA.2: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1495413545386713094 | 00:58 |
| Tuvix | In the context of this channel though, providing a basis for discussion is probably more useful than the quips you like to respond to without much meaning or context to them. At least if you'd like to get a thoughtful and engaging response, I'd suggest that approach may yield better results. | 01:03 |
| Tuvix | 'respond with', rather. | 01:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Bigger Than Wuhan, H.K. Outbreak Defies Covid Zero PlaybookSARS-COV-2 is here to stay, but COVID-19 we should be able to minimise much. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1495550458743730181 | 01:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Hong Kong: +6067 cases, +12 deaths since a day ago — Canada: +214 cases since 4 hours ago — France: +11 cases since 4 hours ago | 02:11 |
| LjL | The FNV said last month over 500 healthcare workers face losing their jobs because they are suffering from Long Covid and have been on sick pay for the regulation two years. In total 1,850 healthcare workers contacted an FNV hotline about the issue, which was opened in December. The public health institute RIVM estimates 238,000 healthcare workers caught coronavirus https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/02/first-long-covid-legal-cases-involve-healthcare-staff-rtl-nieu | 02:21 |
| LjL | ws/ | 02:21 |
| LjL | not sure if this is decently indicative of how many people we can expect to suffer from long covid in a work-disabling way. seems like an underestimate compared to figures i've heard | 02:22 |
| oerheks | LjL, healthcare workers, from the earliest months, that were not warned about infected residents sue our state, https://nltimes.nl/2022/02/20/healthcare-workers-sue-employers-long-covid-consequences | 02:25 |
| oerheks | there were no masks or protected gear, in the first weeks | 02:25 |
| LjL | sure, i'm sure there are / will be a lot of people suing | 02:28 |
| LjL | i just thought these particular numbers might be useful to estimate prevalence, at least prevalence of something | 02:28 |
| LjL | something like "long covid bad enough that you stay home from work for two years" | 02:28 |
| oerheks | That would give a turmoil, it is not going to happen, i am afraid | 02:29 |
| LjL | oerheks, uh, what is no going to happen? | 02:35 |
| oerheks | payments for longcovid for the first responders/healthcare workers | 02:37 |
| LjL | i didn't say it will happen | 02:37 |
| LjL | i just said lawsuits will occur | 02:37 |
| oerheks | oh oke | 02:37 |
| oerheks | yes, there will be plenty. | 02:37 |
| LjL | and the lawsuits in this case are not even about payment per se but about the fact that after 2 years they can be fired, *after* receiving 2 years of sick pay | 02:38 |
| LjL | i would say if you got permanently sick by taking care of the sick, you should be entitled to some permanent pay, but that may not happen. my point was simply the numbers could be useful to estimate things. | 02:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Association of COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality Rates With School Reopening in Brazil During the COVID-19 Pandemic → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sxhdvu/association_of_covid19_incidence_and_mortality/ | 02:55 |
| oerheks | after 2 years pay, one can get disability payments, but that could be 70% | 02:59 |
| oerheks | in NL | 03:00 |
| LjL | i don't know, it says at https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/02/first-long-covid-legal-cases-involve-healthcare-staff-rtl-nieuws/ it's 70% *for* 2 years although some employers choose to make it 100%, and after that you can be fired ("face losing their job") | 03:07 |
| oerheks | yes. | 03:07 |
| oerheks | Then one gets tested, and could get benefits. | 03:08 |
| oerheks | and/or education/schooling for an other job | 03:08 |
| LjL | and "benefits" are still 70% of the previous pay? | 03:10 |
| oerheks | yes. | 03:12 |
| oerheks | and at least minimum wage. maybe the missing part is from your local council. | 03:12 |
| oerheks | also some deduction in local taxes. | 03:13 |
| oerheks | some complain about the lesser money, to high rent, then they should move to cheaper housing. but that is an other discussion | 03:14 |
| oerheks | c/too high rent | 03:14 |
| oerheks | Ugly situation, also entrepeneurs that are going bankrupt now, even the shops reopen. | 03:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +2230 cases, +27109 tests (8.2% positive) since 23 hours ago | 04:02 |
| LjL | <Brainstorm> New from The Indian Express: World: Australia fully reopens borders shut by Covid-19 pandemic, welcomes back tourists → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/australia-fully-reopens-borders-shut-by-covid-pandemic-welcomes-back-tourists-7783273/ | 05:50 |
| LjL | i definitely see a pattern... | 05:50 |
| oerheks | i see an economics pattern | 05:54 |
| LjL | is it any more extensive than "economy bad, must end covid so economy good"? | 06:01 |
| oerheks | yes, reopen or we illegally reopen | 06:02 |
| LjL | and you see that pattern in that article? | 06:03 |
| oerheks | i recieved the bills from my mom, hospital, house, funeral .. :-( | 06:03 |
| oerheks | i see a pattern worldwide, reopening, due to the low severity of omicron | 06:03 |
| LjL | i don't think it's really due to its low severity. it's only less severe if you somehow don't compensate that by the much higher infectiousness, and i'm sure governments can't be completely missing that. | 06:05 |
| LjL | i'd say "we can't avoid reopening after two years" is more of a compelling reason | 06:05 |
| LjL | BA.2 is also quite different from BA.1 and yet barely talked about outside of places like this | 06:05 |
| oerheks | I know Ba.2 for 4 days now, from south africa | 06:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +61908 cases since 23 hours ago | 06:07 |
| LjL | well, it's been around and talked about for, uhm | 06:07 |
| oerheks | sure our dutch gov is aware.. | 06:07 |
| LjL | Libera/##covid-19/2021-12-07.log:[17:42:28] <Brainstorm> New from COVID on Twitter: Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66): One key mutation that BA.2 is missing is the S:69/70del -- the one | 06:07 |
| LjL | that causes the SGTF/S-drop-out. This means we can't use this 'shortcut' to find possible Omicron cases *for BA.2 only*. However, *the PCR test itself still works!* You'd test + for S | 06:07 |
| LjL | ARS-CoV-2.6/N → https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1468258810758406156 | 06:07 |
| LjL | this is the first occurrence of it in this channel | 06:07 |
| LjL | so two and a half months later, the general public kinda sorta starts getting to know about it | 06:08 |
| LjL | and yet Omicron itself, with fewer mutations from Delta than BA.2 has from BA.1, was huge news | 06:08 |
| LjL | something is being weighed differently | 06:08 |
| oerheks | i think most important is the chance to get hospitalized | 06:09 |
| oerheks | .. and the aftermath, but we know that after a few months, maybe years | 06:09 |
| oerheks | longcovid, kidneycovid, heart, brain | 06:09 |
| Timvde | LjL: BA.2 has been talked about in our media since it started gaining ground in Denmark, but the message has always been "It may be slightly more contageous than BA.1, but not any more severe, and we don't expect any significant impact on our curve" | 06:44 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bashkortostan, Russia: +4409 cases, +18 deaths since a day ago — Zabaykalsky, Russia: +2145 cases, +3 deaths since a day ago — Penza, Russia: +1911 cases, +17 deaths since a day ago — Amur, Russia: +1748 cases, +2 deaths since a day ago | 07:09 |
| Tuvix | There's at least one clinical study out now that appears to show BA.2 seems about on-par for outcomes, but this also as *lab* studies have shown a more notable difference. It could be something in the BA.2 mutations are better in a lab (vs. the real-world) at infecting with existing general antibody levels (prior infection + vaccines in the larger population.) | 07:27 |
| Tuvix | It's a bit early to draw obvious conclusions yet, but it's another reminder that "in the lab" can be different than "in practice." | 07:28 |
| Tuvix | The world doesn't like waiting, and I'd go so far as to say BA.2 appears less news-worthy specifically because the distinctions are quite complex and few people have the patience to understand what SGTF stands for much less its importance. Many in the public really just don't care. | 07:29 |
| Tuvix | Hmm, a day or so back I broke the US pandemic into pre/post vaccines with a June-01 2021 split. I redid the math because I called the "pandemic total" a slightly different range, including March 2020 before the US really had much death. The updated figures are: | 07:45 |
| Tuvix | US death pre/post vaccines in units of deaths per 7-day per 100k: pre-vaccine Apr '20 to May '21: 2.93; post-vaccine Jun '21 - Feb-18 '22: 2.70; all-pandemic (Apr '20 - Feb-18 '22): 2.93 | 07:45 |
| Tuvix | Grr, and I pasted the wrong value from another scratch file, crap. all-pandemic is 2.84 | 07:46 |
| Tuvix | So, pre-vaccine: 2.93, post-vaccine: 2.70, all-pandemic: 2.84 | 07:46 |
| Tuvix | That's… really not much improvement in the US death rate with vaccines. The varients are really hitting the US population nearly as hard as the first 2 waves did :\ | 07:47 |
| Tuvix | Don't get me wrong, the vaccinated *do* have much better outcomes, I'm just suprised at the overall death rate, but we do have plenty of unvaccinated for each new wave of immune-escape VoCs to infect. | 07:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Injury-Related Emergency Department Visits During the COVID-19 Pandemic: There was an estimated 1.7 million (25%) decrease in nonfatal injury-related ED visits during April through June 2020 compared with the same timeframe in 2019. → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/sxn26a/injuryrelated_emergency_department_visits_during/ | 08:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: Which is best, vaccine-induced immunity, “natural immunity,” or “super immunity” to COVID-19?: Those opposed to public health interventions to slow the spread of COVID-19, including masks, "lockdowns," and vaccine mandates, are hyping "natural" immunity again as [... want %more?] → https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/natural-immunity-and-super-immunity/ | 09:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +1452 cases since 12 hours ago | 10:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Living with Covid plan will restore freedom, says Boris Johnson → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60455943 | 10:17 |
| xx | ^ dying with covid will restore freedom too | 10:22 |
| Tuvix | It's unlikely the dead wanted to be killed, certainly not by gasping for air on their deathbeds. | 10:25 |
| Tuvix | There's nothing freedom related about that at all. | 10:25 |
| xx | well, they don't need to pay taxes anymore | 10:26 |
| xx | I'd call that freedom | 10:26 |
| Tuvix | No more of this. You do it multime times a week. Please stop. | 10:26 |
| Tuvix | multiple* | 10:26 |
| xx | taxes? | 10:26 |
| xx | I was just pointing out that their "living with covid" is essentially "dying with covid" | 10:27 |
| Tuvix | You know exactly what I'm talking about. The 'well now everyone is free to die' trope. It's offensive. | 10:27 |
| xx | i.e. they are saying losses are now acceptable to those in charge | 10:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: When fact checking cuts both ways: Like many BMJ readers I was concerned by the issues raised in your report about potential covid-19 vaccine trial misconduct.1 As a researcher and academic interested in research integrity, I wrote a... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o368.short | 10:56 |
| mrdata | that stupid thing paywalled me | 11:06 |
| mrdata | has bmj ended free access to covid related articles? | 11:08 |
| Tuvix | There might be a free-access at the DOI URI, but it currently reports no such article, so perhaps the publication there is delayed, or altenratively this one isn't and wan't be released openly. | 11:11 |
| xx | it's just an opinion piece, no? Not an actual research stuff. | 11:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: First Opinion: Opinion: Pandemic predictions are tricky. Except this one: U.S. hospitals are not ready for the new normal → https://www.statnews.com/2022/02/21/pandemic-prediction-us-hospitals-not-ready-for-new-normal/ | 11:16 |
| xx | nonsense, predictions are easy | 11:18 |
| xx | introduce a novel virus into an already sick population = trouble | 11:18 |
| mrdata | just an opinion piece? well here's an opinion: theyre assholes for holding back an article about holding back health info by social media trafic shaping algorithms | 11:23 |
| xx | I'll have to wait until it's on scihub but I won't hold my breath that it'll have anything interesting in it | 11:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Brunei: +2819 cases, +2 deaths since 23 hours ago | 12:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Topline results from Phase 3 SPRINTER trial → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sxr2ea/topline_results_from_phase_3_sprinter_trial/ | 12:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iceland: +7408 cases since 2 days ago — Germany: +58527 cases since 21 hours ago | 12:59 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/18/whistleblower-facebook-sec-climate-change/ | 13:10 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.washingtonpost.com: Frances Haugen’s lawyers accuse Facebook of misleading investors about covid and climate misinformation in Securities and Exchange Commission complaints - The Washington Post | 13:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Hamsters’ Testicles Shrink After Being Infected With COVID, Study Finds → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/sxs72c/hamsters_testicles_shrink_after_being_infected/ | 13:22 |
| xx | lol | 13:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): Have you had an experience lately where you suspected Covid but the rapid antigen test (maybe several) turned out neg, before finally turning +, or a PCR test confirmed infection? Well, this study may explain. Seems these tests perform v poorly vs omicron [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1495741202301427718 | 13:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: Weekly Scientific Discussion Thread - February 21, 2022: This weekly thread is for scientific discussion pertaining to COVID-19. Please post questions about the science of this virus and disease here to collect them for others and clear up post space for [... want %more?] → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sxsyrj/weekly_scientific_discussion_thread_february_21/ | 14:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: How Vitamin D Affects Omicron Symptoms, According to New Research and Expert Analysis → https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/sxt0tz/how_vitamin_d_affects_omicron_symptoms_according/ | 14:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Biological E's Corbevax Is 2nd Vaccine To Be Approved For Children In India → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/sxt3xc/biological_es_corbevax_is_2nd_vaccine_to_be/ | 14:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +59692 cases since 23 hours ago | 15:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: A large study has found high rates of mental health problems in COVID-19 patients up to a year after acute infection. The research found mild or severe COVID-19 increased a person's risk of developing anxiety, depression, and substance use disorders. → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/sxug43/a_large_study_has_found_high_rates_of_mental/ | 15:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): Including Seoul virus in New York City rats. But NYC hasn't done much against the rat problem in the city since the pandemic started. @NYCMayor @nycgov twitter.com/CEPIvaccines/s… → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1495764800365903877 | 15:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Fergus Walsh (@BBCFergusWalsh): Breaking: JCVI has advised additional booster dose of Covid vaccine for over 75s and immunosuppressed this spring with a further dose in the autumn for a wider group of population. UK wide decision → https://twitter.com/BBCFergusWalsh/status/1495775316379275266 | 16:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: Human medicine assessment reports: (news): Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): RoActemra, tocilizumab, Arthritis, Rheumatoid;Arthritis, Juvenile Rheumatoid;Cytokine Release Syndrome;Giant Cell Arteritis;COVID-19 virus infection, Date of authorisation: 15/01/2009, Revision: 37, [... want %more?] → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/roactemra | 16:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): Good news:As anticipated, the ONS infection survey, jewel in the crown of the UK’s pandemic surveillance efforts, is expected to be continued beyond this spring, though in a slightly scaled-down form. twitter.com/bbclaurak/stat… → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1495782890877112328 | 16:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: First report from the German COVID-19 autopsy registry → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sxwgmd/first_report_from_the_german_covid19_autopsy/ | 16:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +62152 cases since 17 hours ago | 17:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Monday 21 February 2022 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/sxx257/monday_21_february_2022_update/ | 17:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Self isolation support payments will also end, though COVID provisions for statutory sick pay can still be claimed for a further month. Routine contact tracing will end, along with daily testing for close contacts. Unvaccinated close contacts will not [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1495801639332110346 | 17:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): The most vulnerable will be protected by targeted treatments and vaccines, he says. The UK government has ordered sufficient doses to cover a wide range of requirements, and will accept JCVI advice for a spring booster to the elderly and vulnerable. → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1495804099912155148 | 17:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): He says COVID will not disappear. But restrictions impose a heavy toll on society and we do not need to impose that any longer, he says. We need to get our confidence back and can rely on a sense of responsibility towards one another. ENDS. → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1495806305587630089 | 18:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Here’s the government’s full plan for “removing the remaining legal restrictions while protecting people most vulnerable to COVID-19 and maintaining resilience”. gov.uk/government/pub… → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1495808233046425600 | 18:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: COVID-19 : People in England will no longer have to self-isolate after testing positive by end of nex week. → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sxyyj5/covid19_people_in_england_will_no_longer_have_to/ | 18:27 |
| pwr22 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-60461378 | 18:42 |
| pwr22 | Well, this is stupid | 18:42 |
| pwr22 | I thought pushback to this would happen | 18:43 |
| pwr22 | But no, positive results will not isolate | 18:43 |
| pwr22 | And basically testing will be scaled back, presumably to hide the result of this happening | 18:43 |
| whytek | what's "this" ? | 18:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: British politics: Boris Johnson scraps remaining COVID restrictions in England → https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-boris-johnson-remaining-coronavirus-restriction-england/ | 18:46 |
| whytek | pwr22, you mean the pushback is stupid, or the initiative is stupid? | 18:47 |
| pwr22 | The link I posted. I mean I thought pushback would happen and stop at least removing the requirement for people with covid to isolate | 18:51 |
| whytek | ok | 18:54 |
| whytek | I guess it's time to move from government mandates to responsible behaviour. simple stuff that was often ignoried in the british isles, Like.. when you're sick, don't go to the office. | 18:55 |
| whytek | instead of "just drink 5 lemsip and you'll e grand. | 18:56 |
| whytek | *be | 18:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Boris Johnson announces end of almost all COVID-19 restrictions in England--"learn to live with the virus." → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sy01k6/boris_johnson_announces_end_of_almost_all_covid19/ | 19:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from BioNTech: BioNTech and Medigene Announce Global Collaboration to Advance T Cell Receptor Immunotherapies Against Cancer: Collaboration leverages BioNTech’s multi-platform immunotherapy capabilities and Medigene’s T cell receptor (TCR) [... want %more?] → https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/biontech-and-medigene-announce-global-collaboration-advance-t | 19:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Itaconate and derivatives reduce interferon responses and inflammation in influenza A virus infection → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sy0oof/itaconate_and_derivatives_reduce_interferon/ | 19:43 |
| LjL | apparently Greece has a new law that punishes, criminally, people "shaking trust" in "public health" (and also economy and defense) | 19:59 |
| LjL | speaking of creeping fascism | 19:59 |
| LjL | i really hope the anti-vax and covid-denying movements aren't taken as excuses by half of the EU to implement laws like that | 19:59 |
| LjL | it's a really friggin' poor excuse | 19:59 |
| LjL | also, rights and guarantees shouldn't only exist during times when they're easy | 20:00 |
| LjL | "you have this right unless/until it becomes inconvenient for you to have it" isn't a right at all | 20:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +48820 cases, +29 deaths since 23 hours ago — Italy: +24484 cases, +201 deaths, +231766 tests (10.6% positive) since a day ago | 20:04 |
| oerheks | Brainstorm, low number, must be due to the stormy days | 20:05 |
| Brainstorm | oerheks: but it wasn't due to no longer infectious" | 20:05 |
| LjL | note again despite a much lower number than usual, the positive rate in Italy is still 10.6%. which is interesting because usually on Monday (i.e. with Sunday's numbers) the rate goes *up* by a fair bit... but instead it has been very steady at around 11% throughout the time "the numbers have gone down" in this wave | 20:07 |
| LjL | by now i find that more than a little disingenuous. they aren't literally making up the numbers, but deciding how many tests to do, and lowering that numbers *without* allowing the rate to go down, can pretty much amount to that | 20:08 |
| oerheks | indeed, in NL it is stable around 57,9% https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/positief-geteste-mensen | 20:08 |
| LjL | 57.9%? good lord. | 20:08 |
| oerheks | yes, but for traveling our gov advises a commercial test station, much faster to make an appointment | 20:09 |
| LjL | y'all remember either 10% or 3% or even 1%, depending on who you asked (including WHO), was supposed to be the maximum in order to be able to claim you were testing sufficiently? | 20:09 |
| LjL | oerheks, and those don't end up in the official numbers? | 20:09 |
| oerheks | yes they do, AFAIK | 20:10 |
| de-facto | oerheks, do .nl PCR tests require proxy testing, hence selecting with a positive rapid antigen test? | 20:10 |
| LjL | well then 58% remains a crazy high positive rate | 20:10 |
| oerheks | proxy testing? first a self test, then a PCR to be sure? | 20:11 |
| LjL | and does that number include just PCR or also rapid tests? | 20:11 |
| LjL | oerheks, yes, that's what he means | 20:11 |
| oerheks | self tests are not counted... | 20:11 |
| de-facto | yes, if a self test prior to getting a PCR is required it selects for those that already tested positive in the self test | 20:11 |
| de-facto | hence not really the positive rate that would manifest if no prior testing would have been done | 20:11 |
| oerheks | i think many do a self test before going to the test location. | 20:11 |
| oerheks | and looking at statistics, UK is a week ahead of us, so our numbers will drop soon | 20:13 |
| LjL | de-facto, look at the black "positive rate" line in our testing https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_6 and also look at how *crazy high* our positive antigen test rate remains https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_6a compared to before the Omicron wave... | 20:13 |
| LjL | then i'm not very surprised people say things like "weird, numbers are going down but I personally know more people with COVID than ever" | 20:14 |
| LjL | it's just mindblowing, the RAT positive rate was below 1% before the wave, and now it's 10% *and growing* | 20:14 |
| LjL | (so only the PCR tests are shrinking, again showing that it's only artificially going down) | 20:14 |
| oerheks | oh, many people feel sick but do not test, afraid to infect others in the test locations | 20:14 |
| oerheks | * while getting a self test in a shop might be more dangerous than the test locations | 20:15 |
| LjL | if you compare the antigen rate at https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_6a with what Greece gets http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Greece&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&legacy=no , then you see the *real* situation may not be all that different, with that huge plateau that Greece has, and Italy is just hiding it. | 20:15 |
| oerheks | Anyway, my eye is on the Ba.2 variant to arrive.. | 20:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: AMMS: Ad5-nCoV → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/42/ | 20:22 |
| LjL | unrelated, but | 20:30 |
| LjL | %title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJl6u13LqeQ | 20:30 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.youtube.com: Russian President Putin Addresses Nation Following Security Council's Meeting on Donbass - YouTube | 20:30 |
| LjL | "may" be important | 20:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): I am trying my best to keep quiet and cool... But two crazy (i.e. nonsensical) pieces in the last 24h. Bill Gates = Omicron is better than vaccine! Vaccines do not kill people, Bill! Boris Johnson = I call all best shoots. No comments there! → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1495842264156889093 | 20:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: AnGes: AG0301-COVID19 → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/3/ | 20:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Airlangga University: UNAIR Inactivated COVID-19 Vaccine → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/181/ | 20:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +48778 cases, +464 deaths since 2 days ago — Germany: +89091 cases since 21 hours ago — Canada: +1278 cases, +3 deaths since 23 hours ago | 21:06 |
| * enyc meows | 21:13 | |
| enyc | hrrm UK controversy | 21:14 |
| enyc | wondering how that compares to around world etc | 21:14 |
| LjL | what is the controversy in the UK? | 21:19 |
| aruns | LjL: Dropping all COVID restrictions | 21:37 |
| aruns | I presume that is what enyc is talking about | 21:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): COVID Twitter is lively tonight.Lots of on one side with plenty of✌️ on the other.Those in the middle are more ♂️ → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1495858434692235264 | 21:40 |
| * enyc nods aruns | 21:41 | |
| enyc | aruns: sometihng like that | 21:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: News Scan for Feb 21, 2022: Kids' emergency dept use in pandemic Family PTSD after severe COVID-19 → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/02/news-scan-feb-21-2022 | 21:59 |
| Tuvix | Well, got my 4 free RATs in the mail this past week, but it looks like the consumer style antigen tests are even more likely to show a false negative with Omicron. From one of the citations in the feed above: | 22:27 |
| Tuvix | "a high-risk occupational case cohort of 30 individuals with daily testing during an omicron outbreak in December 2021 showed a median of two days of apparently false-negative RAT results with four recorded transmission events during the period preceding the positive PCR result." | 22:27 |
| Tuvix | Most of us don't have the luxury of daily testing, so these tests could completely miss cases that don't manage to test in just the right window of time when the poor sensitivity would report a positive case as positive. | 22:28 |
| Arsanerit | majority of the world probably have no access to testing at all? | 22:36 |
| Tuvix | Probably no-to-minimal access most places, yes. The quote above is from a study on the RAT test accuracy, but even if you test twice a week, it'd still be fairly easy to miss the window when you're most infectious by RATs alone with Omicron. | 22:37 |
| Tuvix | The pharmacy here has drive-through testing where you don't leave your car and they have you perform your own swab under the eye of their medical staff, then you get results once the test is done. It's free, but in particular inaccessible to people who don't have a car (no walk-up option for that type of test there) | 22:39 |
| Tuvix | In a way it's nice to not be making possibly-infectious people wait in an indoor congregate setting, but it also excludes those who don't own cars from using the test service. | 22:40 |
| Tuvix | (we do have other test options, but the pharmacy is often a convenient place for other basic needs, including vaccination or perscription pickups) | 22:41 |
| Arsanerit | Here the "drive-through" tests are accessible by bike and on foot as well. | 22:49 |
| LjL-Matrix | Here the "drive-through" tests basically aren't a thing :P | 22:50 |
| LjL-Matrix | The US has a "car culture" that I think is unmatched in Europe | 22:51 |
| Arsanerit | I live near Europe's oldest drive-in cinema. | 22:52 |
| Arsanerit | The US car culture is unmatched in Europe, but German culture does love their cars. | 22:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: UK unveils game plan for 'living with COVID': Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News Feb 21, 2022 The new UK COVID-19 plan was met with strong pushback from several in the science and medical communities. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/02/uk-unveils-game-plan-living-covid | 22:56 |
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