| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +153 deaths since 18 hours ago | 00:08 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): Our deep mutational scanning indicates that F486L decreases affinity for human ACE2, while N501T increases it by about same amount as F486L decreases it: jbloomlab.github.io/SARS-CoV-2-RBD… (7/n) → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1497722219862003716 | 01:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu): @jbloom_lab Yeah thats fair - will say both N501T and F486L specifically adapt sars2 to ferret/mink ACE2. Looking at GISAID for stuff with N501T+F486L (minus the deer seqs) 77/91 are mink, all but one human seq is from countries that farm mink and most are [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1497724331157303297 | 01:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu): @jbloom_lab yeah I guess only way to really start to prove would be someone finding related sequences in the local mink farms (and this could still imply deer to mink spillover). I'm still completely sold on deer as long-term sars2 reservoirs (nor non-milled [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1497729133840904194 | 01:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Vietnam: +98876 cases, +88 deaths, +123480 tests (80.1% positive) since a day ago | 01:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: SARS-CoV-2 emergence very likely resulted from at least two zoonotic events → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/t2cgpe/sarscov2_emergence_very_likely_resulted_from_at/ | 02:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Hong Kong: +44899 cases, +80 deaths since a day ago | 03:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for South Korea: +163558 cases, +49 deaths since a day ago — New Zealand: +15014 cases, +27790 tests (54.0% positive) since 21 hours ago | 04:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Prof. Peter Doherty (@ProfPCDoherty): I don't recall JEV being found before in Australia. There are good vaccines, but would currently be no case to deploy here. Victorian health authorities warn of encephalitis virus found in pigs theage.com.au/national/victo… → https://twitter.com/ProfPCDoherty/status/1497780812108169216 | 05:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +103669 cases since 16 hours ago | 06:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 871: If the ACE2 fits, ferret: TWiV discusses whether or not Omicron should be designated a new serotype of SARS-CoV-2, and the finding that amino acid changes that adapt SARS-CoV-2 to mink or ferret do not increase fitness in the human airway. → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-871/ | 06:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Maule, Chile: +3706 cases, +12 deaths since a day ago — Pulau Pinang, Malaysia: +2435 cases since a day ago — Penza, Russia: +1721 cases, +17 deaths since a day ago — Pahang, Malaysia: +1636 cases, +2 deaths since a day ago | 07:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Induction of Innate Immune Response by TLR3 Agonist Protects Mice against SARS-CoV-2 Infection → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/t2inte/induction_of_innate_immune_response_by_tlr3/ | 08:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Protection of Hamsters Challenged with SARS-CoV-2 after Two Doses of MVC-COV1901 Vaccine Followed by a Single Intranasal Booster with Nanoemulsion Adjuvanted S-2P Vaccine → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/t2j42b/protection_of_hamsters_challenged_with_sarscov2/ | 08:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 27, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/t2j9jt/daily_discussion_thread_february_27_2022/ | 09:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Brunei: +3962 cases, +6 deaths since 22 hours ago — Macau: +1 cases, +8 tests (12.5% positive) since 5 days ago | 12:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: When intelligence hurts and ignorance is bliss: Global pandemic as an evolutionarily novel threat to happiness → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/t2m59c/when_intelligence_hurts_and_ignorance_is_bliss/ | 12:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Had Omicron? You're unlikely to catch its rising variantnature.com/articles/d4158… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1497898943212142592 | 12:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Next Covid variant can emerge in two ways, experts don't think it will be milder than previous strains: “We have to address the elephant in the room, quite literally: where else has the virus gone, and what is it doing in those species?" → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/t2mpt8/next_covid_variant_can_emerge_in_two_ways_experts/ | 13:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Another manuscript, pre-print, that substantiates the messageProtection of Omicron sub-lineage infection against reinfection with another Omicron sub-lineagemedrxiv.org/content/10.110… pic.twitter.com/RLMT3JMLS3 → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1497907581389529099 | 13:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Former UFC star, San Diegan Chris Leben details serious COVID battle: He declined to talk about his vaccination status. This was his second battle with COVID → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/t2ngko/former_ufc_star_san_diegan_chris_leben_details/ | 13:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +105868 cases since 23 hours ago | 13:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): Reminder: It's been in Putin's interest to weaken Western countries by waging a disinformation war with aim that we let own populations be infected by SARS-CoV-2, ill, not protected by vaccines. Investigations should be made into Russian role in pandemic [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1497923140596424709 | 14:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from Contagion Live: Reinfection for BA.2 After Omicron is Rare: Although it is possible, a small Danish study showed the majority of these cases were often mild and in unvaccinated individuals. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/reinfection-for-ba-2-after-omicron-is-rare | 15:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Arkansas health workers cite Bible, Islam, Norse gods to avoid covid shots → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/t2phnm/arkansas_health_workers_cite_bible_islam_norse/ | 15:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): Measuring viral levels in wastewater is emerging as a reliable and key leading indicator of the ebb and flow of COVID outbreaks as more cities and states implement this tool and the #CDC steps up efforts to create a national network for [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1497949657426661381 | 16:08 |
| Tuvix | The summary of the religious exemptions in the article above include some rather limiting claims, eg: "A few employees elaborated further that medical professionals were assuming the role of God in creating and encouraging vaccines." | 16:11 |
| Tuvix | So, are seatbelts (and their laws) also assuming the hand of God? Perhaps this same diety wishes those who get into car wrecks to die. | 16:12 |
| Tuvix | How about fire extinguishers? Are those who have a building fire, perhaps through no fault of their own, to be denied an intervention that's artifical and not purely from nature? | 16:13 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +106602 cases, +27 deaths since 19 hours ago — Canada: +472 cases since 17 hours ago | 17:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Experts warn that the end of the Omicron surge is not the end of the pandemic. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/t2q2ce/experts_warn_that_the_end_of_the_omicron_surge_is/ | 17:24 |
| Klinda | how much time is the minium to be reinfected after you take the virus ? | 18:02 |
| Tuvix | There really isn't a minimum; there have been reports of people testing positive (after a negative test between) in just weeks. | 18:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): Ten breakthrough technologies in 2022 - Malaria vaccine, Synthetic Data, End of passwords, AI for protein folding, COVID variant tracking, Pill for COVID, etc. Amazing technologies developing to help the world... Humbled to be listed by MIT @techreview [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1497981368126554112 | 18:11 |
| Tuvix | That seems more common on the edge of a new varient, for example, if you got Delta, we know that it offers less protection against Omicron than another delta infection. | 18:11 |
| Tuvix | But reinfection is possible either way. That's more common in the unvaccinated, partly because the body's immune response to the virus depends on many factors, one of which is how severe the infection was (ie: how much viral load you were exposed to.) | 18:12 |
| Tuvix | .title https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/21/covid-reinfection-how-likely-are-you-to-catch-virus-multiple-times | 18:13 |
| Brainstorm | Tuvix: From www.theguardian.com: Covid reinfection: how likely are you to catch virus multiple times? | Coronavirus | The Guardian | 18:13 |
| Klinda | 2 shots pfizer + omicron, am I not protected enough? | 18:13 |
| Tuvix | I'd still look at a booster, although waiting some weeks (perhaps a couple of months) may be beneficial if you had a positive test result. The infection confers some protection, but you can't really be sure how much since we aren't clinically dosed when we get infected. | 18:15 |
| Klinda | but if I take the same variant omicron am I immunte to it? | 18:20 |
| Klinda | maybe I can get infected only with delta | 18:20 |
| Tuvix | Reinfections are rather common in general; immunity isn't some status you get where you're magically safe. Instead it's a reduction in the *odds* of getting another infection, and in the *odds* that any such infection is fought off quicker with fewer side-effects. | 18:22 |
| Klinda | so I mean it will be like a cold | 18:23 |
| Klinda | you can get infected each year | 18:23 |
| Tuvix | In a way exposure is "kind of" like a vaccination, but realize you don't know the dose you got. Would you want a vaccine if I told you that "the doctor put in somewhere between 0% and 100% of the desired vaccine dose into the needle" ? -- that's kind of like what getting infected by the virus is. | 18:23 |
| Tuvix | Yes, exaclty, it's a lot like a cold or the seasonal flu. | 18:23 |
| Tuvix | Each season we get new "prevailing" types of flu going around, and you can catch the flu next-season if you got it before. You can even get the flu twice one year becuase there are often multiple strains that go around, although similar to COVID varients, there are usually just 1 or 2 that are common in any given area. | 18:24 |
| Klinda | I always took flu each year | 18:24 |
| Tuvix | This is part of why each new varient we get, a portion of the population get re-infected again. It's even possible to catch the *same* COVID varient a 2nd time, although that's a bit less common. | 18:24 |
| Klinda | so I hope there is a new vaccine updated for the next year season | 18:25 |
| qkall[m] | I tried to skim through the logs so I don't bring up a redundant point... So sorry if I missed it... What's the current thoughts on the cdcs mask guidance | 18:25 |
| qkall[m] | I don't see much number other than the vaccinated levels... | 18:26 |
| Tuvix | For the influenza? Yea, they update the vaccines each year based on what the other-hemisphere saw the prior year, but it's not always as effective as we'd like. By contrast, the COVID vaccines are *much* more effective at preventing severe outcomes (including death.) | 18:26 |
| qkall[m] | I work with a lot of elderly and presumably some unvaccinated so . I kinda don't know what to do | 18:26 |
| Tuvix | qkall[m]: For the US I'm really not convinced it's a good idea, but the CDC is kind of stuck and forced to do something with so many states and the general public basically ignoring mask guidance anyway (and many doing so since mid-2021 if not earlier, sadly.) | 18:27 |
| Klinda | usually if you are young you don't get a flu vaccine, but i think covid is more deadly, so everyone should take it.. also if you are young | 18:27 |
| qkall[m] | Yeah that's kinda another point... I've been the only one in a mask anyway... | 18:27 |
| Tuvix | qkall[m]: The New York Times has a really good interactive chart here that breaks down not only the national case / hospitalizations / deaths but also breaks it down by state. I can dig that up for you in a moment (free to use, but you may need to create a (free) NYT account) | 18:27 |
| Tuvix | Klinda: Basically, yea; I'm in my 30's and had skipped out on flu many prior years; I was sure to get mine this year since I didn't need added risk, and I was visiting a newborn niece and wanted to give her the best protection before my visit. | 18:28 |
| qkall[m] | Tuvix: thanks but no have account .. there's someone on my local subreddit that has been doing trends | 18:28 |
| qkall[m] | Appreciate it though | 18:28 |
| Tuvix | Well, I dug the link up anyway, and someone else (or another future-log-skimmer) may find it useful: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html | 18:29 |
| qkall[m] | Numbers seems to be dipping... I'm just afraid it's a bit early... As we're the other cdc guidances. | 18:29 |
| Klinda | now I am like going out more because I took the virus, but I am scared if I take it another time xD | 18:29 |
| qkall[m] | Thank you | 18:29 |
| Tuvix | They're not really dipping everywhere; many places, especially in the south or other under-vaccinated regions, are still seeing very high death and somewhat high hospital use. | 18:30 |
| Tuvix | In fact, the US has, basically ever since Delta arrived, done much worse than most of the rest of the world. | 18:30 |
| Tuvix | Here's an interesting comparison on deaths since May of last year, so basically when anyone in the US who wanted a vaccine could have signed up for one: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=eur&areasRegional=usmn&areasRegional=uswi&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2021-05-01&values=deaths | 18:31 |
| Tuvix | Notice how we've done worse than the UK basically that entire time, and almost as much of the time done worse than the EU as a whole. We're also less vaccinated here in the US and tend to have more people who ignore public health guidance. | 18:32 |
| qkall[m] | If that was a crypto chart... I'd buy the dip.... | 18:32 |
| qkall[m] | Trying to laugh out the pian lol... | 18:33 |
| Klinda | Tuvix: but now there are also some medicines that help... or not? | 18:33 |
| Tuvix | I mean, look at the US though; anyone who talks about our death-rate post-Delta or even *now* are fooling themselves. We haven't seen a "low" death rate since back in July last year, before Delta! | 18:33 |
| qkall[m] | I would imagine it doesn't help when like half of the country thinks it's B's... | 18:33 |
| Tuvix | This is what I find frustrating with the CDC messaging, because a lot of the talk, even by some doctors, is about how "low" or death rate is, except it's not really low. At least not everywhere (there are some states doing much better than our national averages of course. Some much worse too.) | 18:34 |
| Tuvix | Klinda: The monoclonal antibody treatments and oral options? To a point, but your best option is not to get sick in the first place. Those are low-availability, high-cost, and not as good as getting vaccinated upfront. | 18:35 |
| Klinda | but to no get infecetd you should live alone in a forest | 18:35 |
| Klinda | do you like to do it? | 18:35 |
| Tuvix | Also note that with Omicron, many of our prior mAb treatments no longer work, although some still do. | 18:35 |
| Tuvix | The goal really isn't to avoid any possible infection; it's to reduce risk (not unnecessarily expose yourself if you can avoid it) and to prepare your immune system upfront. | 18:36 |
| Klinda | and just chat as we do, behind a display... | 18:36 |
| Tuvix | Masks don't prevent infection; they reduce the odds you get infected, and improve the odds if you do that it'll be a more mild case. That's also what vaccines do. | 18:36 |
| Klinda | if you go to a bar, outside and you take a coffee | 18:37 |
| Klinda | you can't wear a mask, right? | 18:37 |
| Klinda | for me like masks are useless.. | 18:37 |
| Tuvix | Think of this all like what you do if you drive a car; you might check the tires at least every handful of trips to ensure they're safe. You'll put on a seatbelt. This doesn't stop you from dying, but it gives you better odds. | 18:37 |
| Klinda | only if you are not eat/drink something | 18:37 |
| qkall[m] | Tuvix: thank you for your insight... My mind is made. Thank you. | 18:37 |
| Klinda | you can wear it | 18:37 |
| qkall[m] | I'll be masking until death numbers are better | 18:37 |
| Tuvix | qkall[m]: Well, eventually I'd like to feel comfortable going without the mask, but where I am that's not going to be soon. I'm watching the death and hospitalizations carefully, because if we get to a point like last summer pre-Delta again, I may feel more comfortable going at least *some* places without a mask, like indoor dining. | 18:38 |
| Klinda | you go to university, you follow a lesson with the mask, ok... but I can't breath for long time, so you exit a bit and there you can talk with others too... | 18:38 |
| Tuvix | But I don't feel that's a smart choice right now. It is all about personal risk, and you should review the situation around you, and be sure to factor in anyone you spend time with (family, friends, etc) who may be more at risk than you. | 18:39 |
| Klinda | also when you go to work with a mask, are you sure you weare it all the hours? | 18:39 |
| Klinda | I think nobody do it | 18:39 |
| qkall[m] | I work in industry... They wear the mask | 18:40 |
| qkall[m] | It's enforced. Not always wearing them appropriate but they try. And it's very hot temps... They're fine | 18:40 |
| Tuvix | I don't have a job where I'm interacting with others directly for hours on end, but in places that do it seems prudent if there's still high transmission in the area. | 18:40 |
| qkall[m] | 110F+ | 18:40 |
| qkall[m] | 12 hr shifts. | 18:41 |
| qkall[m] | They're fine. | 18:41 |
| Tuvix | Right, some jobs even require masks and did before COVID, especially involving chemicals. That was also for safety and health, just there to avoid taking in chemicals instead of a virus. | 18:41 |
| Klinda | I have fpp2 mask and at university I can last 6 hours, then I have to go out and breath fresh air for example | 18:41 |
| Tuvix | It's not really so much about fresh air but probably your mask becomming harder to breathe through due to moisture buildup. | 18:41 |
| qkall[m] | Yup | 18:41 |
| Tuvix | Ideally you have enough of a mask supply to rotate them out when they need to air out or replace if they become damaged or soiled. | 18:42 |
| Tuvix | If you're in a position to be exposed to a lot of people daily, as annoying as it is, the mask is still probably a good idea if your risk level indicates you should wear one specifically because of all that exposure to people of unknown status. | 18:42 |
| Klinda | now I am following them on remote | 18:43 |
| Tuvix | I did carefully attend a very small family gathering for the holidays, but we all had the luxury of effectively self-isolating (remote jobs, etc) beforehand. | 18:43 |
| Klinda | so thee is no problem xD | 18:43 |
| Tuvix | That was still technically a risk because any of us could have picked up the virus, but we did our best to be safe about it and keep the gathering smaller that we might otherwise have. | 18:43 |
| Klinda | also what do you think about the mask in open space? is really needed if there are few pepole around ? | 18:44 |
| Tuvix | Outside? My opinion is it's probably not necessary unless it's really crowded (an example might be the NYC year-end celebration.) Transmission outdoors is quite unlikely. | 18:45 |
| Tuvix | However, at something like a grocery store I still wear one. It's more space than an office or home, but it's also a lot of people, sometimes you're stuck standing quite close in queue to checkout, and I don't trust all of them to be vaccinated or making safe decisions themselves. | 18:45 |
| Tuvix | A point of comparison on that ft.com chart I linked above; using the latest figures for the US, we're over 7x the death rate we saw mid-July which was our all-pandemic low | 18:51 |
| Tuvix | I'd like to hope that metrics improve like they did when we came out of winter a year ago, but this is also Omicron instead of Alpha. | 18:53 |
| * Tuvix hopes for the best, masks for the worst | 18:53 | |
| cadayton[m] | <Tuvix> "However, at something like a..." <- It is my understanding that being vaccinated doesn't prevent the transmission of covid nor will it prevent you from getting covid. At best, it may reduce the symptoms which may be critical for some risk groups. | 18:58 |
| Tuvix | cadayton[m]: There's a slight reduction, but it's more about choices; if they've opted not to get vaccinated, they probably also aren't very careful in the rest of their daily interactions. | 19:07 |
| Tuvix | But more than that, it's all an additive effect. Even if vaccination doesn't provide a hugely significant protection against infection, it is likely to result in a lower-severity infection, and possibly one that lasts for less long (although that depends on other factors too, like the exposure dose.) | 19:08 |
| Tuvix | I know someone who was against vaccination, and also was citing misinformation about masks in his argument against requiring them at a local club I used to spend time at. Those who believe in one form of misinformation are often more likely to believe in others along those same lines too. | 19:10 |
| Klinda | cadayton[m]: it can save you to do more damage and maybe suffer from permanent damage.. why don't you want it? | 19:11 |
| Tuvix | No, their point was that someone else not being vaccinated isn't as helpful to prevent them from being a possible spreader, possibly even without knowing it if they have a very mild case. | 19:14 |
| Tuvix | A recent report came out this past week that showed in households, being vaccinated did provide a slight reduction in risk of catching the virus from a family member, but it also wasn't a huge reduction. This isn't suprising, given that members of the same house typically share the same enclosed space for many hours. But it's also still *some* protection. | 19:16 |
| Tuvix | .title https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7109e1.htm?s_cid=mm7109e1_w | 19:17 |
| Brainstorm | Tuvix: From www.cdc.gov: SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 (Omicron) Variant Transmission Within Households â Four U.S. Jurisdictions, November 2021âFebruary 2022 | MMWR | 19:17 |
| Tuvix | "Multicomponent COVID-19 prevention strategies, including up-to-date vaccination, isolation of infected persons, and mask use at home, are important to reduce Omicron transmission in household settings." | 19:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Jerome Adams (@JeromeAdamsMD): Whether you disbelieve the science on masking, or you feel it’s your “right” not to mask, or you just don’t like it, one reason that I mask in public is out of #respect for others who may be immunocompromised, unvaccinated, or unaware of my vax [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/JeromeAdamsMD/status/1497989085876604933 | 19:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Long Covid Advocacy (4all Post-Viral ME/CFS) (@longcovidadvoc1): 15min podcast on #LongCovid@iansample interviewing the brilliant @VirusesImmunitytheguardian.com/science/audio/… → https://twitter.com/longcovidadvoc1/status/1498000067126509575 | 19:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): Well, I guess that was also what political leaders thought about an outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan in January 2020. The world is a small place. And I think we need to make sure we are not governed by shortsighted people. twitter.com/Acyn/status/14… → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1498006951069892614 | 19:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): Thread by @tylernstarr on our new deep mutational scanning of #SARSCoV2 RBD. He describes results re epistasis during variant evolution. Key point: If you're using our data for variant interpretation, switch to these new better data! Download/visualize at [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1498011187975372803 | 20:16 |
| Descartes | The following news story was reported at the end of 2021: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/cases-deaths-and-hospitalizations-comparing-canada-s-two-years-of-covid-19-1.5722463 | 20:29 |
| Descartes | It provides a lot of useful information about the pandemic in Canada sourced from the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) | 20:29 |
| Descartes | But I have a problem with the following statement from that story: "A total of 20,693 new COVID-19 infections were detected on Dec. 23, 2021, with 87,227 cases reported over the previous seven days in Canada." | 20:30 |
| Descartes | As you can probably see, the last phrase from that sentence is confusing, because the numbers look wrong and don't match up. | 20:30 |
| Descartes | How can 87,227 cases be reported in the last seven days, when the total reported for the entire year was less than 21,000? | 20:31 |
| Tuvix | There's no way a year's worth of case-detection was less than 21k. The daily total for Dec-23, going just by that quote, appears to be 20.7k. | 20:32 |
| Tuvix | 7-day averaging is very commonly used, or in this case, 7-day totals (you can do it either way as long as you're consistent) because that largely avoids issues of data spikes around the weekend. | 20:33 |
| Descartes | Note the story was published 29 Dec 2021 | 20:33 |
| Tuvix | Basically, you can have 7-day totals of 87k with a *single* day total of 21k (that would mean the other 6 days in that 7-day total would be about 66k) | 20:34 |
| Descartes | Canada only has a population of 38 million | 20:34 |
| Tuvix | And Omicron is very infectious. Tens of thousands of cases in a single day isn't a surprise. | 20:35 |
| Descartes | Not in a country with such a small population as Canada | 20:35 |
| Tuvix | Yes. | 20:35 |
| Tuvix | Have you looked up official sources? OWID is a handy place since they pull from official sources and let you compare countries directly too, which can be relevant as a point of contrast. | 20:36 |
| Descartes | What does OWID stand for? | 20:36 |
| Tuvix | Our World In Data. The figures you quote from that article look very valid to me: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Relative+to+Population=false&country=~CAN | 20:37 |
| Tuvix | Even in your "small" country of Canada (I'm in the US with about 10x your population) you had *MANY* more daily cases during the peak of Omicron up there. | 20:38 |
| Tuvix | Looks like just over 40k daily cases, and keep in mind those are just the reported ones; many others existed that weren't necessarily reported to public health agencies. Omicrion is *very* infectious compard to prior COVID varients. | 20:38 |
| Tuvix | Omicron has been described as similar to the transmission of one of the world's other most-transmissible diseases: measles. | 20:39 |
| Descartes | those numbers are insane | 20:39 |
| Descartes | Really unbelievable | 20:39 |
| Tuvix | Canada is doing a lot better than the US by comparison: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-04-11..latest&Metric=Vaccine+doses%2C+cases%2C+ICU+patients%2C+and+deaths&country=CAN~USA | 20:40 |
| Tuvix | Note that these are now relative population numbers (rates per 1M or per 100 depending on the graph I just linked) which allow you to directly compare pandemic response from countries with different populations. | 20:40 |
| Tuvix | But, note in particular how Canada has less of an ICU impact during surges, and far less death. | 20:41 |
| Descartes | Are you saying that statement is accurate, and between 23 Dec 2021 and 29 Dec 2021 over 87,000 cases of COVID-19 infections were reported in Canada? | 20:42 |
| Tuvix | Yup. | 20:42 |
| Descartes | I thought it was a typographic error | 20:42 |
| Descartes | Because it's so hard to believe | 20:42 |
| Tuvix | The rate of spread is part of what makes COVID so serious; even though Omicron is, per *case* more mild, you can clearly see by the death totals alone that Omicron is not less leathal to the population compared to Delta for example. | 20:43 |
| Tuvix | Even if the per-rate incidence of dying from COVID is lower, the sheer volume is what makes it a bigger killer. | 20:43 |
| Descartes | That means that in the span of a week, four times as many people were infected by covid than were infected in the previous year! | 20:44 |
| Descartes | More than 4 times | 20:44 |
| Tuvix | Not to mention every case has some risk of long-symptoms after the acute phase which most people recover from in just a week or two. Vaccination helps improve your odds universally though, and you'll also see on that CAN vs. US graph that Canadians are much more vaccinated as well. | 20:44 |
| Tuvix | You mean the peak of case infection? More were infected the total year if you want to consider the _total_ number of cases ever counted. | 20:44 |
| Tuvix | Canada's cumulative confirmed cases: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-04-11..latest&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=false&country=~CAN | 20:45 |
| Descartes | "A total of 20,693 new COVID-19 infections were detected on Dec. 23, 2021, with 87,227 cases reported over the previous seven days in Canada." | 20:46 |
| Tuvix | 1.86M on Dec-16, and 3.28M today. | 20:46 |
| Tuvix | Yes, so that ONE DAY there were 20.7k cases reported. The PRIOR SEVEN SAYS 87 cases reported. | 20:46 |
| Tuvix | That's *NOT* pandemic-totals. | 20:46 |
| Tuvix | Pandemic total Canada, on Dec-23 had seen 1.95M. Consult the chart I just linked if you want pandemic-totals. The figures you quoted are 1 and 7-day totals ending on Dec-23, 2021. | 20:47 |
| Descartes | thanks | 20:48 |
| Tuvix | This is a very infectious disease, and Omicron is wildly easy to transmit. | 20:48 |
| Tuvix | Also, be aware that vaccination only has a moderate protective aspect from catching COVID; the primary reason you want to be up to date on vaccination is to avoid serious effects that might land you in the hospital (or worse.) | 20:48 |
| Descartes | Who collects and publishes the data for OWID? | 20:49 |
| Tuvix | The data is collected from each country's source, but aggregated into a standard format by Johns Hopkins University; click the "Sources" tab on any of the pages shown for a link to their details. | 20:49 |
| Tuvix | If you follow the GitHub link, you can find a list of about a dozen Canadian sources used. | 20:50 |
| Tuvix | If you really want, you can even go download the raw data from either OWIDs published code or the raw Canadian (or any other country listed) sources and put the data into another spreadsheet or database to work with. | 20:50 |
| Descartes | Why is Johns Hopkins Univ. not mentioned here: https://ourworldindata.org/about ? | 20:51 |
| Tuvix | Because OWID traks many things, not just the pandemic data. | 20:52 |
| Tuvix | The sources for a specific topic may not relate at all to what JHU publishes; JHU is a medical-focused business, and probably isn't useful for exploring something like poverty for example | 20:52 |
| Descartes | I figured a more reliable source would be Stats Can or Health Canada, but I failed to get it from those sources, and I haven't had time to look at the PHAC website. | 20:53 |
| Tuvix | I mean, the README here is pretty extensive: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 | 20:53 |
| Tuvix | Search for the heading section of "Canada" and you'll find 12 links that all feed the data used in the OWID interactive documents. | 20:53 |
| Tuvix | Pure data can be a real pain to work with though, which is why sites like OWID that put in the hard work to not only show it in a uniform way but still link the sources their using are really helpful. | 20:54 |
| Tuvix | Most of the time you don't realy need to bother looking up the raw data because that's typically quite involved (and done wrong you can make mistakes like using the wrong data-set or double-counting figures that are broken into cross-sections, etc.) | 20:54 |
| Descartes | I don't have time to do any of that stuff. I'm not paid to do it. I just wanted to know if the source of the information is reliable. If I was paid to verify the sources, I would probably spend more time doing that. | 20:55 |
| Tuvix | OWID is very reliable and they make a great effort to use published official government sources. | 20:56 |
| Tuvix | I'd be careful about news articles that don't quote their own sources, but in the case of the one you quoted above, it matches OWID, so that checks out. | 20:56 |
| Descartes | The author declared the source of her information. And this is only for my own personal use. I'm not publishing anything, and I'm not paid to do this, so I'm not going to spend much time on it. | 20:58 |
| Descartes | Thanks for the feedback, Tuvix | 20:59 |
| Tuvix | Hmm, somewhat annoying is that the OWID github link seems to have a stale Canadian URL. | 20:59 |
| Tuvix | If you want to bookmark it for later digging, it looks like Canada has a lot of links to area-specific COVID data starting here: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19.html | 21:00 |
| Tuvix | (look for the "more details" and "access the data" type links scattered all over that page. | 21:00 |
| Tuvix | But this is why OWID is so great; they do all the hard work so you can just click around and display data you want to get a pretty graph for; that's a lot less work than tracking down dozens of country sources. | 21:00 |
| Tuvix | For example, in about 2 minutes I was able to customize all the graphs I linked above. I'd have to spend somewhere between 2 hours & 2 days to get all that data from scratch for the countries involved :\ | 21:01 |
| Descartes | That's what the StatsCan site is supposed to do, but it has become a lot more complicated in the last decade. You have to spend almost an hour inputing the specific of the data you want, in order to get their pretty graphs and charts. | 21:02 |
| Descartes | and I'm no longer paid to do that, so I don't even bother using the StatsCan website any more | 21:03 |
| Descartes | It's probably easier to get the same information, even about Canada, from the New York Times website, when it comes to Covid stats | 21:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +31878 cases, +144 deaths, +317784 tests (10.0% positive) since a day ago | 21:06 |
| Descartes | I wonder how the war in the Ukraine will affect Covid infections in the Ukraine and in Russia | 21:08 |
| Tuvix | I'm not sure about the one you mentioned; I find OWID pretty easy to use with a fairly low learning cuve, and the default display options are usually fine. Using some of the CDC data in their "visualize" feature is a bit harder because you have to understand what filters to apply. | 21:08 |
| Descartes | Like how do you take precautions like getting vaccinated, social distancing, hand washing, and mask wearing when you're getting shot and bombed and fleeing for your life? | 21:09 |
| Tuvix | New York Times has some rather nice charts though. I also found a really nice one from ft.com . | 21:09 |
| Tuvix | Right, obviously when you're in a war-zone COVID measures are a secondary concern at that point. | 21:10 |
| Descartes | Also, I doubt social distancing is easy to do when you're stuck inside a bomb shelter or subway shelter with thousands of other people, many of whom may not have masks or have up-to-date boosters | 21:11 |
| Tuvix | Ah, I had to shorten the link, but this FT.com chart has less info than OWID but is even eaiser to use: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart | 21:12 |
| Descartes | thanks | 21:12 |
| Tuvix | For instance, you can remove the default-countries shown and just add Canada and something else if you wanted to compare (eg: US, European Union, etc) | 21:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Omicron’s lasting mysteries: four questions scientists are racing to answer - The fast-moving variant poses new puzzles in viral transmission, severity and evolution. → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/t2vv1q/omicrons_lasting_mysteries_four_questions/ | 21:12 |
| Tuvix | Exactly, but if you had to choose between staying in a home that might get bombed or a rocket fired on it (even if "by mistake") you'd presumably move to the shelter too, regardless of risk or what personal protection you had. | 21:13 |
| Tuvix | It's the sad reality of war, and since this one is occuring during a global pandemic, that's just one more unnecessary consequence of this. | 21:13 |
| Tuvix | (not that we needed more consequences, but no one consulted me on the situation either.) | 21:13 |
| Descartes | War is inevitable and so are pandemics. I agree that it's worse when they happen together. | 21:19 |
| Descartes | Both are preventable, at least to some degree. | 21:20 |
| Tuvix | Indeed. | 21:20 |
| Descartes | Thanks for the information, Tuvix | 21:21 |
| Tuvix | Sure, feel free to lurk or return again if you had more questions, or just want to see discussion or the links our bot posts. | 21:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on future seasonal influenza epidemics → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/t2w1il/impacts_of_the_covid19_pandemic_on_future/ | 21:22 |
| Descartes | Tuvix, the total number of deaths related to COVID-19 in Canada reported by PHAC from March to Dec 2020 was 14,642 | 22:04 |
| LjL | %cases ukraine | 22:04 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Ukraine has had 5.0 million confirmed cases (12.0% of all people) and 112459 deaths (2.2% of cases; 1 in 372 people) as of 3 days ago. 19.5 million tests were done (0.5 per capita, 25.8% positive). 14.7 million were vaccinated (35.2%). See https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/ | 22:05 |
| Descartes | by comparison, Tuvix, the total number of deaths related to COVID-19 in Canada reported by PHAC from 1 Jan to 29 Dec 2021 was about 14,462. | 22:07 |
| Descartes | As of 25 February 2022, the PHAC has reported that since the pandemic began in Canada (on 8 March 2020), there have been 36,377 deaths related to COVID-19. | 22:10 |
| Tuvix | OWID has somewhat similar figures, although I find the more useful comparisons tend to be between the various waves of the pandemic since for our 2nd winter now the surge occurs across the calendar changeover. | 22:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +42600 cases, +76 deaths since a day ago | 22:10 |
| Tuvix | (OWID puts the 2021 year total at 14,500, but that's very close, posibly just a change in provisional to final counts for example.) | 22:11 |
| Descartes | Canada's current population as of 27 February 2022 is 38,639,685 | 22:11 |
| Tuvix | Yea, you can get an idea of the pandemic-total per-capita hit, or that is to say compare death rates overall between countries here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases (be sure to set the graph to plot 'Deaths/100k pop' if you want that metric, as it defaults to confirmed cases) | 22:12 |
| Descartes | Actually, I estimated the 2021 total by taking the total of 236 fatalities reported in the last 14 days by 2 and adding that to the total reported on 23 Dec 2021 to get the total deaths in Canada for 2021. | 22:12 |
| Tuvix | Oh, Canada is no longer on the top-20 countries at that link (it used to be, but I guess other countries had more raw death figures and Canada got bumped. Bummer.) | 22:13 |
| Tuvix | I mean, good for Canada of course, but I got used to comparing it there :P | 22:13 |
| Tuvix | Ah, so your estimate was still pretty good, only short a few dozen going by that OWID figure (ultimately sourced from Canada's health agencies) | 22:14 |
| Descartes | But I wonder what the numbers would look like if the Covid deaths had begun Jan. 1 instead of March 8 for 2020. That way, we would be able to make a consistent comparison of 2020 to 2021, to see the true impact of the Omicron variant. | 22:16 |
| Descartes | Actually, we could do that by starting March 8, 2020 and going to March 7, 2021, and then comparing that to March 8 2021 to March 7, 2022 | 22:18 |
| Tuvix | You already can compare varients; pick start/end times of comparison to coincide with the waves of the pandemic. | 22:18 |
| Descartes | yes | 22:18 |
| Descartes | I think we are only 9 days away from March 7, so in 9 days, we could make that comparison, assuming we would have the numbers already by March 7 or March 8. | 22:20 |
| Descartes | March 8, 2022 will mark the second anniversary of the pandemic in Canada, (but I would not call it an anniversary because we're not celebrating anything) | 22:22 |
| Descartes | Well, may be if your family has survived the pandemic for 2 years, it's something to be grateful about, but I doubt there are going to be parties or celebrations. | 22:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virology.ws: Trial By Error: The Usual Suspects Promote a Psychosocial “Research Agenda” for Long Covid: By David Tuller, DrPH In what could be described as a form of epistemic land grab, core members of the graded exercise [... want %more?] → https://www.virology.ws/2022/02/27/trial-by-error-the-usual-suspects-promote-a-psychosocial-research-agenda-for-long-covid/ | 22:28 |
| Descartes | By the way, Maclean's Magazine published an article last year in which this statement was made, "Of the roughly 20,000 Canadians who succumbed to COVID-19 in the pandemic's first 11 months, nearly 9,000 were residents of long-term care homes in Ontario and Quebec . . ." | 22:29 |
| Descartes | That article was published in the March 2021 issue of Maclean's Magazine in Canada | 22:30 |
| Tuvix | 20k for Canada would have been around the end of Jan, 2021. "11 months" is relative to when you start counting of course. | 22:30 |
| Descartes | I assume they were counting from 8 Mch 2020 to 6 Feb 2021 | 22:31 |
| Tuvix | March to Jan (inclusively) | 22:31 |
| Descartes | When they publish a story in a magazine, the writing is usually done about a month before publication date, and the copy editors probably proofread it about a week before publication to update any information or errors. | 22:32 |
| Tuvix | Depends on who is writing it; more timely articles often include data up to the day before it was published. Print has a longer lead-time of course since there's more effort than a digital publication. | 22:33 |
| Descartes | But may be the online version of the story is slightly different. I was reading the hard copy that was published a year ago | 22:33 |
| Descartes | Yeah, digital publications are more up-to-date, but they often contain a lot of typographic errors. | 22:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Theo Sanderson (@theosanderson): Log axis version, with the caveat that early on the "BA.2" includes some Delta, explaining the slower growth pic.twitter.com/qktXbrelY1 → https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1498049162826465288 | 22:38 |
| Descartes | Up until about 10 years ago, I was rarely seeing so many typographic errors in Maclean's Magazine. I have been reading Maclean's Magazine since the late 1980s and I still have a subscription. Even the hard copy of Maclean's Magazine now contains a lot more errors than I noticed in the past. | 22:39 |
| Tuvix | 'eh, legit outlets proofread. | 22:39 |
| Descartes | Maclean's Magazine is one of Canada's most widely-read publications, so they should have professional proofreaders and copy editors. | 22:41 |
| Tuvix | Maybe consider a sample size of larger than 1. | 22:41 |
| Descartes | And if they're publishing only once a month, they should have enough time to proofread it before publication. By comparison, I rarely notice any typographic errors in the National Post, which also has more well-researched feature stories. | 22:42 |
| * Tuvix shrugs. Maybe they're having staffing issues. Maybe the proofer just doesn't care. Maybe the license for their tools that used to do a better job expired and they didn't replace it. | 22:43 | |
| Tuvix | If it bugs you so much, maybe write a letter to the editor? Who knows, they might even publish it! | 22:43 |
| Descartes | Well, yeah, understaffing is obviously a problem, and reporters are working longer hours, and they have to get their stories done faster for their more up-to-date web publications | 22:45 |
| Descartes | The letters to the editor are not criticisms of the magazine; they are responses and feedback to their stories. A letter to the editor complaining about their typographic errors would blacklist me as a freelance journalist, if I ever decided to submit a story to them. | 22:47 |
| Descartes | But blogging, social media, YouTube and Facebook has made journalism no longer profitable, especially investigative journalism, so it's no longer a good choice for employment. | 22:52 |
| Tuvix | No longer profitable? Sure makes Warner look stupid for buying out CNN then. If only they'd spoken to you first so they knew it wasn't a profitable business! | 22:53 |
| Descartes | Digital media and broadcast media may still be relevant and profitable, but not print media | 22:54 |
| Tuvix | Ironically social media is exactly why we need reliable journalism, and why it's not going anywhere. There's a ton of crap on those platforms too. Social media makes a poor way to get information about something like COVID for example, specifically becuase there's little vetting of information and sources are rarely cited except by professionals who know better than to make baseless claims. | 22:54 |
| Tuvix | What's print media got to do with journalism no longer being profitable? | 22:54 |
| Tuvix | You're mixing up your arguments here. | 22:54 |
| Descartes | I'm trained and worked in print media, and I had to abandon it because of the lack of money and profit | 22:55 |
| Descartes | Even before the popularity of social media, print journalists never made much money and we worked crazy hours. It has only gotten worse. | 22:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +2683 cases, +14 deaths since 23 hours ago | 23:00 |
| Tuvix | Sure, why would I pay for print media when I can pay less for a digital subscription that's automatically delivered to several of my devices that I can read without having to carry paper with me? But I think this is venturing rather far off-topic at this point… | 23:00 |
| Descartes | We studied journalism together with the broadcast and digital media classes, and those a different kinds of journalists. Most broadcast journalists I knew were egotistical, attractive-looking, shallow people who didn't like to read. But they looked good in front of a camera or sounded good on a microphone. | 23:01 |
| Descartes | Print journalists I worked with were very different. They were nerdy, always reading, always fact-checking, and anal about details. | 23:02 |
| Tuvix | I guess my hint may have been tool subtle. You probably want to take this to a different channel. | 23:02 |
| Descartes | I responded to your question. | 23:03 |
| Descartes | about print journalism | 23:03 |
| Descartes | Most of the stories you get in digital media today are no longer from those nerdy detail-oriented print journalists. | 23:08 |
| Descartes | A lot of them, especially the investigative journalists, lost their jobs. | 23:08 |
| Tuvix | Enough. Please stop. | 23:09 |
| Descartes | that's my answer to your question. Sorry if there was too much detail. | 23:09 |
| Descartes | Tuvix: "What's print media got to do with journalism no longer being profitable?" | 23:12 |
| Tuvix | And then you went on after 2 hints to stop. | 23:12 |
| Tuvix | This is ##covid-19 , not #rant-about-paper-pubs | 23:12 |
| Descartes | I didn't want to discuss journalism. I wanted to get info about Covid. But I think it was reasonable for you to ask that question and reasonable for me to provide an answer. | 23:14 |
| Tuvix | (2 hints and you kept doing it for 10 minutes. Guess your journalism training didn't include reading between the lines.) | 23:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Covid 19 Omicron outbreak: Cardiologist warns of tidal wave of heart disease linked to long Covid | 27FEB22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/t2yygz/covid_19_omicron_outbreak_cardiologist_warns_of/ | 23:26 |
Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!