libera/##covid-19/ Sunday, 2022-03-20

TimvdeIs there actually any news about omicron vaccines? (combined with other variants, maybe)00:01
TimvdePfizer claimed they would be done by March00:01
xxthe war probably did something with the schedule00:03
xxfunds diverted towards other stuff instead of covid00:03
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +119 deaths since 17 hours ago00:08
pwr22<Timvde> "Is there actually any news about..." <- I recall reading that they didn't work particularly better than the previous vaccines but I'm not really too sure and didn't investigate much01:00
BrainstormUpdates for Cook Is.: +67 cases since 23 hours ago01:05
oerheks.clear01:08
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Comparative analysis of the risks of hospitalisation and death associated with SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) and delta (B.1.617.2) variants in England: a cohort studythelancet.com/journals/lance… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/150534060682604544501:35
LjLTimvde, xx: actually I seem to remember Pfizer postponed it to something I forget even before the war, and Moderna postponed it to something like August01:44
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Currently leading the world in confirmed new cases, South Korea is now descending, down to 334,000 today  ncov.mohw.go.kr/en/bdBoardList… @cdc_kr @OurWorldInData pic.twitter.com/ruNxmri7O8 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/150534392937745203501:45
LjLbut also Moderna found that the Omicron-specific vaccine doesn't seem to make much of a difference compared to the regular vaccine, which probably doesn't make anyone want to hurry up particularly much01:45
LjL(in my opinion we should be a bit more forward-thinking and realize that the *next* variant may escape a relatively "ancient" vaccine completely... but i doubt we'll be)01:45
xxLjL: that just means Pfizer had advanced info about the special military operation01:50
LjLxx, and Moderna had further info on its length?02:00
xxmust be all those 5G surveillance chips :p02:01
xxoh wait, this isn't -vox02:01
xxpfizer did not pull out of russia, right?02:02
xx(the company)02:02
LjLno idea, it wasn't on The List of nasty company that failed to pull out02:03
LjLand i know you must hate anyone who fails to pull out, so02:03
LjLyou'd know02:03
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): BA.2 became dominant in some countries with little impact on case burden covariants.org and @OurWorldInData (trying to find the bright side of this variant) pic.twitter.com/OFAxOPoaQO → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/150534851781180211402:04
xxI see what you did there02:05
BrainstormUpdates for Slovakia: +10895 cases since 13 hours ago02:07
user__1 in 200 residents of backwards mississipii died from the Covid and in part their ignorance02:22
user__or maybe it was Missouri same difference02:22
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): Basic facts: Pfizer's 2-dose vax for 2 to <5yo is 3mcg, compared to 10mcg for 5 to <12yo and 30mcg for ≥12yo. It's also 3mcg for 0.5 to <2yo, by the way, which is an interesting clue in the failure analysis. Ph3 enrollment started in summer [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150535221249868595402:23
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): WSJ reported that the 2 to <5yo vax (going to write 2–4yo now) was not working well against Omicron. VE was ~50% for Delta and then dropped for Omicron. It was also reported that the vax induced lower Abs in 2-4yo than the approved 30mcg for [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150535393136216883302:33
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): As everyone knows, Pfizer is now waiting for the third dose to see if it provides adequate Omicron protection. As a 3rd dose broadens immunity (via activation of hypermutated memory B cells) this has a chance of getting over the 50% [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150535697249685094402:43
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): But a question is if Moderna can get VE >50% with just 2 doses, and I think the answer is likely yes, for two reasons. First, because Moderna's dose is much higher than Pfizer's: 25mcg for 2-4yo if the below article is correct;nytimes.com/2022/03/14/us/… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150535697368379801602:52
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): and second, because a failure analysis suggests Pfizer's 3mcg for 2-4yo was indeed underdosed. This conclusion comes from a careful look at something that hasn't been discussed so much: VE of the 10mcg dose for 5-11yo against Omicron. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150535697486664908903:02
BrainstormUpdates for Vietnam: +424729 cases, +77 deaths, +241817 tests since 23 hours ago03:04
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): The Pfizer vaccine for 5-11yo (10mcg x2) showed 90% protection against disease from 6/2021 to 9/2021. This is very good, especially since some cases were likely Delta. The dosing looks reasonable as NAb levels are similar to 16-25yo getting 30mcg [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150536581361568563303:12
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): Now the 2x 3mcg dose for the 2-4yo groups actually gave lower antibody levels than the 2x 10mcg dosing for 5-11yo (1302 vs 3409).So if 3409 gave VE = 31% against Omicron for 5-11yo, it seems unlikely 1302 would do better than that for 2-4yo.From [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150536771371089510703:21
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): Here we have to digress into some speculation. Why is Omicron protection worse for the 2x 10mcg vax in 5-11yo than the 2x 30mcg vax in 12-15yo, if it elicits the same Ab levels (actually higher per the Pfizer slide)? And will 2-4yo act like 5-11yo or [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150536919518524621603:31
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): Since the earliest days of SARSCoV2, kids <12 seemed to get infected less than those >12, and recover more quickly if they did. I took a position on this early (7/2020) when most studies on kids grouped 1-18yo together:twitter.com/michaelzlin/st… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150537131567858073803:40
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): The next question is, would it be helpful to increase the dose? It seems yes. 11yo's who got 2x 10mcg did far worse vs Omicron than 12yo who got 2x 30mcg (11% vs 67%).cnbc.com/2022/02/28/pfi… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150537770523088486604:05
LjLomg Lin spam less04:05
BrainstormUpdates for Tonga: +444 cases since a day ago04:06
LjL%cases tonga04:07
BrainstormLjL: Tonga has had 3232 confirmed cases (3.2% of all people) and 2 deaths (0.1% of cases; 1 in 50326 people) as of 48 seconds ago. 84463 tests were done (0.8 per capita, 3.8% positive). 73886 were vaccinated (73.4%). +444 cases since a day ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Tonga&legacy=no04:07
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): The Phase 3 trial for 5-11yo experienced 1 fever >40ºC out of ~1000 participants, and the excellent efficacy against infection prior to Omicron seemed to prove the 10mcg was the right choice. Omicron upset the apple cart.nejm.org/doi/full/10.10… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150537938102738534904:14
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): In terms of safety, Pfizer had its reasons to choose 3mcg for 2-4yo: they had seen the next dose up of 10mcg to experience more fevers: 2 out of 32 (6%) vs 0 at 3mcg. (Would be useful to know if those fevers were in the smallest kids.) pic.twitter.com/g7EK3j7D2J → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150538220176812032204:24
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): It's also possible that Pfizer just got unlucky with the 2 kids aged 2-4yo who got high fevers after 3mcg, because Moderna is giving a whopping 25mcg in this same age group in their Phase 3! So they must have seen an acceptable AE profile in their [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150538571529042330204:33
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): In fact you’d expect Moderna’s 25mcg for 2-4yo would be equivalent to >10mcg for Pfizer, where Pfizer saw high fever. That Moderna went through suggested they didn’t see the same. Hopefully that holds up in their Phase 3. It hasn't been stopped [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150538669363283149304:42
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): Thus if we could change the past, Pfizer could have done instead:0.5-2yo: 3mcg3-4yo: 7mcg5-8yo: 11mcg9-11yo: 15mcg≥12yo: 30mcgEven better would have been to test an Omicron vax starting in Jan; then we'd likely have a proven good vax this month. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150538912423228211404:52
BrainstormUpdates for Jilin, China: +2865 cases, +2 deaths since a day ago — Germany: +125009 cases since 15 hours ago — Fujian, China: +362 cases since 2 days ago — Cook Islands, New Zealand: +67 cases since a day ago07:08
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: Researchers have demonstrated a genetic link between endometriosis and some types of ovarian cancer. Something of a silent epidemic, endometriosis affects an estimated 176 million women worldwide – a number comparable to diabetes – but has [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/tiesdr/researchers_have_demonstrated_a_genetic_link/07:42
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | March 20, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/tife1q/daily_discussion_thread_march_20_2022/08:01
TimvdeLjL: I seem to remember that even a vaccine for alpha worked 4 times better against omicron than the original vaccine08:41
BrainstormUpdates for Taiwan: +121 cases, +30153 tests since 23 hours ago09:01
Arsaneritwhen are we getting new vaccines?09:28
oerheksArsanerit, and.. will they be for free?09:31
Arsaneritfree for the vaccinated, hopefully yes10:35
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 20MAR22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/tiiie7/global_covid_cases_for_20mar22/12:08
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu): ...by definition the RBD sites Omicron mutates must be mutationally flexible - I think theres a good chance many of the same sites will also mutated in 'Pi/Rho/Tau' (though mostly with diff substitutions).Obviously this virus keeps surprising us though so who [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/150551760869884724513:15
AtqueBrainstorm: That's no good.13:16
BrainstormAtque: WHO is a good match in a democracy13:16
AtqueBrainstorm: What?13:16
BrainstormAtque: ideally have some people who want to be part of asia (and lower) that claims it does, we could attribute lots of testing. What a bunch of idiots. Best to be positive though...13:16
AtqueBrainstorm: Are you a bot?13:16
BrainstormAtque: ship travel is a bot reacts to it13:16
AtqueBrainstorm: Markov bots are bad.13:17
BrainstormAtque: also twitter is such a bad law13:17
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu): just a small clarification - a virus mutating the same residues, but with different substitutions, would almost definitley result in a virus thats very antigenically distinct from both ancestral strains (ie vaccine) as well as Omicron. → https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/150552489720805785613:44
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +129369 cases since 23 hours ago15:04
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Children’s Duration of COVID-19 Immunity from Natural Infection | Study (Peer-Reviewed - Prepublication Release) link in Comments | 19MAR22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/til66i/childrens_duration_of_covid19_immunity_from/15:29
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 878: Shape matters sometimes: TWiV revisits chronic wasting disease of cervids and the ability of the prions to infect meadow voles and raccoons, and the suggestion that stochastic assembly of influenza virus particles may play a role in phenotypic diversity. → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-878/15:39
BrainstormUpdates for Vanuatu: +159 cases since a day ago — Samoa: +51 cases since 2 days ago — Canada: +1300 cases since 18 hours ago16:06
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): 2022.03.19. Analysis of why Pfizer's COVID19 vaccine for children 2-4 years old didn't work well after 2 doses, concluding it was underdosed while Moderna's should work better.twitter.com/michaelzlin/st… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150556196475956838516:17
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation): “I think it is heading towards this vaccine becoming an annual vaccine, at least for the foreseeable future,” Former FDA Commissioner @ScottGottliebMD says of the current COVID-19 immunizations. pic.twitter.com/YtxZ94amlU → https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/150557346203476788017:14
xxI doubt we can inject 8B people every year17:30
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Getting to the (germinal) center of humoral immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/tiotpl/getting_to_the_germinal_center_of_humoral_immune/17:33
user__note he is 'former FDA commissioner" not "current Pfizer Board Member"17:44
BrainstormNew from WebMD: U.S. Health Officials Tracking COVID Increase in U.K.: U.S. health officials are watching the steady climb in COVID-19 cases in the U.K., which tends to signal what could happen next in the U.S., according to NPR. → https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220320/u-s-health-officials-tracking-covid-increase-in-u-k17:52
LjL-MatrixTimvde: I don't know, maybe it's specifically Moderna's vaccine that isn't much different for some reason specific to them. I've really also stop trying to stay abreast of covid stuff lately18:39
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +61564 cases, +93 deaths, +370466 tests since a day ago19:08
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Rick Bright (@RickABright): Collaboration & sharing build trust…across nations, regions, continents & the world to strengthen global pandemic preparedness & response. Thanks @ceri_news @Tuliodna & scientists Dawit Hailu, Migbaru Keffale, Rajiha Abubeker from Ethiopia. @AfricaCDC [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/RickABright/status/150560767187704217619:18
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): Well done thread on problems predicting BA.2> Pessimistic about cases. Unclear about deaths. twitter.com/cha_myoung/sta… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150561040457931981019:28
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Whereas the 3rd shot had durable protection vs severe illness for 4+ months, the 4th (vs Omicron, w/ far more immune evasion), may be limitedtwitter.com/erlichya/statu… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/150561343472907469119:37
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): They've worked remarkably well vs severe disease, with a 3rd shot that restored effectiveness at ~95% vs hospitalization and death. But the virus has continued to evolve, the antigenic distance between Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 is as far as Beta to Gamma. pic.twitter.com/n7sRejU5Fg → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/150561681005748633619:56
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: A SARS-CoV-2 negative antigen rapid diagnostic in RT-qPCR positive samples correlates with a low likelihood of infectious viruses in the nasopharynx. → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/tit8om/a_sarscov2_negative_antigen_rapid_diagnostic_in/20:53
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Log-plot of US and UK for new cases, 7-day average, normalized to population, to look at directionality pic.twitter.com/jC5ANZyDOS → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/150565195482696499422:09
BrainstormUpdates for Israel: +12338 cases, +12 deaths since 22 hours ago — France: +81283 cases, +30 deaths since a day ago — Canada: +953 cases since 6 hours ago22:10
LjL*sigh* https://twitter.com/meepbobeep/status/150560342812650292422:11
oerheksoh noes22:13
oerheksi believe covid death toll is underestimated.22:13
user__https://nitter.net/cha_myoung/status/1505286848905564162#m22:15
oerheksbigger surge in kids, i am afraid :-(22:17
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Good review of the BA.2 data and evidence for a new US wave. Right now we're mainly relying on hope as our defense, when it ought to be boosting at scale. It remains possible it won't be substantial—as in the UK and other countries in Europe—but I wouldn't count [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/150565555182014054522:28
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): Nice chart summarizing all COVID19 treatments with CIs. All trials in mostly unvaccinated, except for IFN-lambda in mostly vaccinated. twitter.com/DrToddLee/stat… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150565766839173529722:38
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu): Quick poll for covid twitter:In a totally SARS2 immune-naive population which is most transmissible, BA.2 or Delta?Interested to hear any justifications/evidence as well. → https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/150566617485556940823:07
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu): Quick poll for covid twitter:Hypothetically, which do you think is more intrinsically transmissible (in the absense of any immunity - ie in a pre-pandemic world), BA.2 or Delta? → https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/150566862880441958623:17

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