| Brainstorm | Updates for Eswatini: +48 cases, +513 tests since 23 hours ago | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | %cases Germany | 00:04 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Germany has had 21.2 million confirmed cases (25.5% of all people) and 129983 deaths (0.6% of cases; 1 in 640 people) as of 2 hours ago. 118.0 million tests were done (1.4 per capita, 18.0% positive). 61.8 million were vaccinated (74.3%). +266857 cases since 22 hours ago. See https://corona.rki.de/ | 00:04 |
| de-facto | :((( | 00:07 |
| de-facto | so many people got their health ruined, its horrible | 00:08 |
| de-facto | many will end up with brain damage, auto-immune diseases, diabetes, chronic fatigue syndrome etc | 00:10 |
| de-facto | having failed containment that severely we should be in absolutely strict lockdown, yet our lovely health minister has nothing better to do than ending restrictions and masks | 00:13 |
| de-facto | we are producing people that have their health ruined for long term at record rates | 00:13 |
| de-facto | and judged by its actions the government works towards increasing the rates even more | 00:14 |
| notdaniel | I've kinda been lurking in this room since like early 2020 but de-facto have you considered the negative effects of lockdowns? | 00:15 |
| de-facto | yes but its nothing compared to the damage that is done right now | 00:16 |
| notdaniel | Like, where i live in the USA i only know one person who sort of died of covid related causes and i know many people who have lost their whole livelihoods to lockdowns | 00:16 |
| notdaniel | Obviously that's just anecdotal | 00:17 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: do you have any studies on rates of long term health effects? | 00:17 |
| de-facto | difference being, the negative effects from lockdown (yes of course they exist) are immediately visible, the longterm damage on peoples health is only visible after they realize after many months or even years that they will not recover to their previous healthy state anymore | 00:17 |
| de-facto | there are many studies yes | 00:18 |
| notdaniel | Could you link me some? | 00:19 |
| de-facto | some are quite frightening | 00:19 |
| notdaniel | Also purely anecdotal but i know many people who have had covid and nobody has reported any long term symptoms | 00:19 |
| notdaniel | (Except sometimes smell not returning for a few months) | 00:20 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00912-y | 00:22 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: Diabetes risk rises after COVID, massive study finds | 00:22 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2022/03/21/a-case-of-shrunken-brains-how-covid-19-may-damage-brain-cells/?sh=78b3750070ff | 00:24 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.forbes.com: A Case Of Shrunken Brains: How Covid-19 May Damage Brain Cells | 00:24 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(22)00044-4/fulltext | 00:25 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Risks and burdens of incident diabetes in long COVID: a cohort study - The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology | 00:25 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04569-5 | 00:25 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: SARS-CoV-2 is associated with changes in brain structure in UK Biobank | Nature | 00:25 |
| notdaniel | So, covid might cause a %4 increase in risk for type 2 diabetes? | 00:26 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.03.21266112v1.full-text | 00:26 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Brain Injury in COVID-19 is Associated with Autoinflammation and Autoimmunity | medRxiv | 00:26 |
| notdaniel | That really doesn't seem terrible | 00:26 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-021-00926-1 | 00:26 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-021-00926-1 | 00:26 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: The SARS-CoV-2 main protease Mpro causes microvascular brain pathology by cleaving NEMO in brain endothelial cells | Nature Neuroscience | 00:26 |
| de-facto | %title https://jneuroinflammation.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12974-021-02323-8 | 00:27 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From jneuroinflammation.biomedcentral.com: Brain injury, endothelial injury and inflammatory markers are elevated and express sex-specific alterations after COVID-19 | Journal of Neuroinflammation | Full Text | 00:27 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: I'm gonna have a hard time reading all of these, maybe pick like one or two if you want to make a point? | 00:27 |
| de-facto | the point being: we have a new disease that obviously is able to cause longterm health damage, and since we are only at the begin of this its going to only be the tip of the iceberg | 00:30 |
| de-facto | imho that translates to that its absolutely futile to expose as many people as possible to those damaging effects, without really knowing the longterm impact of this | 00:30 |
| notdaniel | Any disease can have long term health effects, I'm pretty sure that we would have noticed if covid was particularly prone to them? | 00:31 |
| de-facto | even if the pandemic ended today (unfortunately that is not the case at all) we would probably deal with the remaining damage to peoples health for the years (if not decades) to come | 00:31 |
| notdaniel | Additionally, i suspect it's hopeless to try to prevent everyone from getting covid eventually, since it's so extremely contagious | 00:32 |
| de-facto | notdaniel, its called long-COVID, a collection of long lasting symptoms that affects peoples health for many months, some not being able to recover at all yet | 00:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: Largest trial to date finds ivermectin is worthless against COVID → https://arstechnica.com/?p=1845020 | 00:32 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: I'm aware, but I've never seen compelling evidence that long covid is a serious risk | 00:32 |
| de-facto | it is a serious risk, actually the very reason i want to prevent to get contaminated with SARS-CoV-2 at almost any costs | 00:35 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: can you share any relatively concise proof? | 00:35 |
| de-facto | what proof do you want? | 00:36 |
| notdaniel | That doesn't require reading more than a couple papers? :P | 00:36 |
| de-facto | its occuring worldwide, there are tons of studies ongoing | 00:36 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: scientific studies are good | 00:36 |
| de-facto | yes there are more than enough available | 00:36 |
| notdaniel | Another thing, if you wish to self isolate because you're at risk to covid nobody's going to stop you | 00:37 |
| notdaniel | But for many people their entire lives would/have be/been destroyed by lockdowns, far worse than any long term effects of covid | 00:37 |
| de-facto | if you wish to not contaminate other people with a pathogen that is able to ruin their health or even bring them into hospital or kill them you have to distance and wear a mask | 00:38 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: I'm really not trying to be dense but i haven't seen any studies that show serious long term risk, can you show me one? | 00:38 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: Why not distance an mask yourself? | 00:39 |
| notdaniel | and* | 00:39 |
| de-facto | i do that, do you? | 00:39 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: no, because I'm not at risk | 00:40 |
| notdaniel | I've already had covid too | 00:40 |
| de-facto | so you dont care about contaminating other people then? | 00:40 |
| notdaniel | Also because trying to social distance myself would prevent me from going to college this fall which i very much want to do | 00:41 |
| de-facto | i am at university in contact with students everyday, still i do isolate, test, wear masks, and it works | 00:41 |
| de-facto | i do care about ending infection chains | 00:42 |
| de-facto | and in know it works because i was in contact with people that tested positive later on and enforcing an environment that cuts off transmission pathways did prevent it from spreading | 00:42 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: i generally assume that other people in public who aren't self isolating are similarly unconcerned about covid | 00:42 |
| notdaniel | Re: contaminating others | 00:43 |
| de-facto | you are from USA right? | 00:43 |
| notdaniel | Yes, maryland | 00:43 |
| de-facto | is that a typical attitude there, to only care about oneself and not about other people around? | 00:44 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: that seems like a trick question | 00:45 |
| notdaniel | I think my attitude is common yes, but it's not in any way uncaring i don't think | 00:45 |
| notdaniel | Since as i mentioned there's a balance to be reached in not letting people die of covid but also not letting people go homeless or starve | 00:46 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: have you ever ridden a motorcycle? | 00:48 |
| de-facto | so in times when a pathogen spreads that does harm and kill people, do you think its more appropriate to limit its spread by preventing minorities of infected carriers to contaminate majorities of susceptible, or do you think its better to blame majorities of susceptible to stay at home for minorities of carriers to enjoy their freedom refusing to wear masks etc? | 00:48 |
| notdaniel | Motorcycle riders are much more likely to die in crashes than cars, and are more likely to be hit since they're hard to see, and motorcycle crashes can endanger cars too | 00:49 |
| de-facto | i have never heard of a motorcycle driver to infect others with a pathogen that later on kills thousands per day | 00:50 |
| notdaniel | But we generally acknowledge that since riders bear the majority of the risk they should be allowed to set their own threshold for such risks, rather than removing cars from the road | 00:50 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: analogies are rarely ideal yeah | 00:51 |
| de-facto | what i am saying is that this analogy does not represent the odds of a pandemic | 00:51 |
| notdaniel | No, it doesn't | 00:51 |
| de-facto | the situation is much more dynamic, e.g. we had times when daily new infections doubled in below a week or such | 00:51 |
| notdaniel | But you continue to bring up this false dichotomy | 00:51 |
| notdaniel | If you think lockdowns are worth the economic loss why not just stay home? | 00:52 |
| notdaniel | Others can go out and do things if they're more concerned about starving to death than covid | 00:52 |
| de-facto | you dont understand it | 00:53 |
| de-facto | its about preventing the pathogen spread, not about myself | 00:53 |
| de-facto | you have to look at the bigger picture, about the long term impact of what is happening right now | 00:53 |
| de-facto | preventing the pathogen spread does both: 1) prevent ruining the health of majorities 2) prevent economic problems | 00:55 |
| notdaniel | I guess i don't understand | 00:55 |
| notdaniel | Everyone will eventually be exposed to covid right? | 00:55 |
| de-facto | not preventing pathogen spread does the opposite, it produces people at perfect working age with long term health issues, some may not even continue to be productive in their job and also its the cause of the economic problems those countries face that did not prevent the spread | 00:56 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: you have not established this fact yet | 00:56 |
| de-facto | only if its not prevented, if all transmission paths are open, more and more people are going to get exposed and a significant part of them will have longterm problems | 00:57 |
| notdaniel | I know of nobody 'of working age' with covid related issues | 00:57 |
| notdaniel | And i am definitely part of what might be called the working class | 00:57 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: so everyone will eventually be exposed yes? | 00:58 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/3march2022 | 00:58 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ons.gov.uk: Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics | 00:58 |
| de-facto | again, not if it can be prevented | 00:59 |
| * notdaniel reads... | 00:59 | |
| notdaniel | That doesn't seem very scientifically rigorous but i want to go back to another point for a second | 01:00 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00299-6/fulltext | 01:00 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: lockdowns slow the rate of new cases right? | 01:00 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Characterizing long COVID in an international cohort: 7 months of symptoms and their impact - eClinicalMedicine | 01:00 |
| notdaniel | But how can you prevent people from at some point being exposed to covid? | 01:01 |
| de-facto | closing transmission pathways determine the reproduction number R = contact_rate * transmissibility * duration_of_infectiousness | 01:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The intense viral and cell shedding induced by #SARSCoV2 airway cell infection is inhibited by interleukin-13, attenuating viral entry, replication and spread pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn… @PNASNews HAE cell culture work pic.twitter.com/BVDUQjwlI4 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1509664578728128512 | 01:01 |
| de-facto | daily new infections are N(t) = N(t0) * R^(t/ts) with a generation time of ts ~ 2-5 days (depending on the variant etc) | 01:02 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: but how do lockdowns help? | 01:02 |
| LjL | <notdaniel> (Except sometimes smell not returning for a few months) ← that's been linked to brain damage so i wouldn't be super-happy about that | 01:02 |
| notdaniel | LjL: only time will tell but nobody i know has lost smell for more than about 6 months | 01:03 |
| de-facto | so if enough transmission pathways are closed Rt < 1 and thereby daily new infections are an exponential decay, if Rt ~ daily new infections are more or less the same, if Rt > 1 daily new infections are an exponential increase | 01:03 |
| notdaniel | It would indeed suck to lose it permanently though | 01:03 |
| LjL | <notdaniel> So, covid might cause a %4 increase in risk for type 2 diabetes? ← 40%, not 4% | 01:03 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: but when the lockdown ends you'll be back at initial conditions and new cases increase right? | 01:04 |
| de-facto | hence if Rt < 1 due to cutting down transmission pathways, each day less people get their health ruined | 01:04 |
| de-facto | notdaniel, only if the pathogen is in circulation | 01:04 |
| de-facto | also note: i am not talking about lockdowns | 01:04 |
| de-facto | i am talking about pathogen reproduction and transmission paths | 01:05 |
| LjL | <notdaniel> Any disease can have long term health effects, I'm pretty sure that we would have noticed if covid was particularly prone to them? ← that's kind of what he's telling you. we have. we even gave it two names, "long COVID" and "PASC". plenty of studies about it. if *you* haven't noticed that's another matter... | 01:05 |
| LjL | notdaniel, the brain has plasticity which can restore lost functions, but that doesn't mean the brain damage is reversed | 01:05 |
| notdaniel | LjL: i keep asking and nobody has shown me anything :/ | 01:05 |
| LjL | ... he just showed you think and you said they're too many to read? | 01:05 |
| LjL | %wik neuroplasticity | 01:06 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, from English Wikipedia: Neuroplasticity, also known as neural plasticity, or brain plasticity, is the ability of neural networks in the brain to change through growth and reorganization. These changes range from individual neuron pathways making new connections, to systematic adjustments like cortical remapping. Examples of [... want %more?] → https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuroplasticity | 01:06 |
| de-facto | did you read any of the studies i have linked? | 01:06 |
| notdaniel | LjL: i read the first few and they all seemed pretty trivial | 01:06 |
| de-facto | %title https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_COVID | 01:06 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From en.wikipedia.org: Long COVID - Wikipedia | 01:06 |
| notdaniel | I think I'd like to rephrase my original question if that's ok | 01:07 |
| de-facto | btw, recovering from one infection does not prevent re-infection as seen by Delta infected getting Omicron infections | 01:08 |
| LjL | this is my own collection of studies on long COVID that looked like i should include them (begs the question, i know) or that just happened to be posted when i was looking: https://www.zotero.org/groups/4391070/covid_links/tags/Long%20COVID/library | 01:08 |
| LjL | not sure if i can help you more without like replaying two years of getting an impression | 01:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +85848 cases, +303 deaths since 19 hours ago | 01:09 |
| LjL | bad memory doesn't help (but would be worse if i had brain fog due to long COVID, in addition to the brain fog i already kind of have) but that's why i gathered them on one page | 01:09 |
| LjL | of course you can ask the question again but i'm not sure you can get a *concise* answer that you won't be able to say "oh meh this is not necessarily too bad" | 01:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Combinatorial analysis reveals highly coordinated early-stage immune reactions that predict later antiviral immune responses in mild COVID-19 patients → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/ttc8n7/combinatorial_analysis_reveals_highly_coordinated/ | 01:11 |
| de-facto | %title https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2784918 | 01:11 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From jamanetwork.com: Short-term and Long-term Rates of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Systematic Review | Infectious Diseases | JAMA Network Open | JAMA Network | 01:11 |
| LjL | <notdaniel> de-facto: can you share any relatively concise proof? | 01:11 |
| LjL | <de-facto> what proof do you want? | 01:11 |
| LjL | <notdaniel> That doesn't require reading more than a couple papers? :P | 01:11 |
| LjL | like no, that's not a fair request | 01:11 |
| notdaniel | LjL: so, there exists a disease with serious long term health effects and there's not a singular study showing it? | 01:12 |
| LjL | i do get the point "what is the alternative", and i don't fully share with de-facto his belief we should lockdown until we have zero cases, because i think we had a realistic chance of that early on if we tried hard and all together, but we don't anymore | 01:12 |
| LjL | studies look at various aspects of those long term health effects | 01:13 |
| notdaniel | I'd still like to go back to my original question | 01:13 |
| LjL | what they are, how frequently they occur, whether they subside over time, on what groups of people they are more frequent | 01:13 |
| de-facto | again: i did not say we should lock down, i said we should prevent infections | 01:13 |
| LjL | each of this is a complicated question especially when the situation has been evolving and we've had multiple variants and obviously we can't predict the future etc | 01:13 |
| de-facto | a lockdown is indicator for a failed concept for preventing transmissions | 01:14 |
| LjL | and in general, "a single study" is never a good answer to anything | 01:14 |
| LjL | if you think a single study is more powerful proof than a lot of studies looking at all the various aspects, i really disagree with you | 01:14 |
| de-facto | i remember we had a study that showed PASC symptoms over time as a graph, it was like asymptotically approaching a certain limit, but i dont find it anymore | 01:15 |
| notdaniel | Like, for well understood diseases with long term effects, such as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varicella_zoster_virus there are many studies that individually detail such effects | 01:15 |
| LjL | like take this one study, it's one of the most recent i saw and that's pretty much why it's the one i'm picking, it looks at mortality from any cause in people who had COVID, in a timespan of two years | 01:16 |
| LjL | the abstract uses the word "modest", so why would anyone be alarmed? | 01:16 |
| LjL | Mild (non-hospitalized) COVID-19 was associated with modestly increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR=1.237, 95% CI 1.037-1.476) and mortality from neurocognitive disorders (HR=9.100, 95% CI: 5.590-14.816), as well as hospital admission from a few disorders such as aspiration pneumonitis, musculoskeletal pain and other general signs/symptoms. | 01:16 |
| de-facto | well COVID only exists since early 2020, hence we only could observe since then | 01:16 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: fair | 01:17 |
| LjL | but that is saying that the hazard ratio of dying from a neurocognitive disorder (COVID has been associated with brain changes that are also associated with Alzheimer's and Parkinson's) is 9 times the normal one | 01:17 |
| LjL | 9 times more likely, with a confidence interval that says "we can't be sure, but it's at least 5.5 times" | 01:17 |
| LjL | i don't find that good news or even "meh" news, i find it frightening | 01:17 |
| notdaniel | LjL: https://xkcd.com/2599/ | 01:17 |
| LjL | you can't be serious | 01:18 |
| notdaniel | Statistics are really hard ok? :P | 01:18 |
| LjL | yes, and yet you want just one magical study-proof | 01:18 |
| LjL | go waste someone else's time | 01:18 |
| de-facto | also longterm effects that are not as clearly defined as e.g. fatal outcome are much harder to get proper stats about | 01:18 |
| notdaniel | LjL: no this is the internet, serious doesn't exist | 01:18 |
| LjL | or just keep wasting de-facto's because he likely will keep countering you | 01:19 |
| LjL | that works too | 01:19 |
| de-facto | i suggest you read up on long COVID and PASC if you really are interested in the subject | 01:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): My synthesis of the data, including the Omicron wave, and long overdue recognition for infection-induced immunitytheguardian.com/commentisfree/… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1509669858610352150 | 01:20 |
| notdaniel | Honestly I've tried reading about long covid and it's hard, I'd rather talk about lockdowns | 01:25 |
| LjL | well, i don't think we can just keep locking down, de-facto also clarified he isn't saying we should lock down | 01:26 |
| LjL | so i guess... does anyone here want to lockdown absolutely strictly? | 01:26 |
| notdaniel | Like supposing two people in a theoretical city, one at high risk for covid and one in some form of financial distress | 01:26 |
| notdaniel | If there's a lockdown you save the lives of some people, and some people become homeless etc | 01:27 |
| LjL | yes, i'd say the whole of the effects is even harder to measure than long COVID outcomes | 01:27 |
| notdaniel | At the end of the lockdown those at risk will be exposed again and the cycle continues no? | 01:28 |
| de-facto | the goal is to prevent damage (caused by infections) by ensuring that Rt < 1. Since Rt = contact_rate * transmissibility * duration_of_infectiousness every of those factors is a potential approach for achieveing Rt < 1. Testing and isolating as well as vaccination reduces duration_of_infectiousness, wearing masks, opening windows and distancing reduces transmissibility significantly (by orders of magnitude) | 01:29 |
| LjL | i think the original idea with lockdowns was that we'd overcome this. mainly that we'd have vaccines, but also that if we tried hard we could get the R well below one. but instead, while the vaccines are available, they make things a lot better but they don't have a chance of removing the virus from circulation; and as to the R (related things, really), new variants have made the baseline for that much much higher | 01:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): WSJ: "Many patients have died in recent days at a large Shanghai elderly-care hospital that is battling a Covid-19 outbreak... a sign that a new wave of infections is hitting China’s financial capital harder than authorities have publicly [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1509672108598693898 | 01:30 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: but it will just delay the inevitable! Unless i misunderstand something? | 01:30 |
| LjL | i still remember hearing basically "this virus doesn't appear to mutate much, that's a good thing" from virologists in 2020 | 01:30 |
| LjL | out underlying assumptions have changed because our understanding of what was viable has changed and also the virus has changed | 01:30 |
| LjL | so yes, i do think at this point a lockdown will inevitably cause a bounceback | 01:30 |
| notdaniel | LjL: i think there just wasnt much pressure to mutate when immunity was rare | 01:31 |
| de-facto | for an infection to take place of course also a contact is required, hence if reducing the contact rate (any kind of contact) is required, its an indicator of a failed hygiene concept, so a lockdown means that management failed to prevent infections by implementing smarter methods than enforcing that people to people contacts dont take place | 01:31 |
| de-facto | notdaniel, you misunderstood that recovering does not prevent re-infection | 01:31 |
| LjL | notdaniel, the first VOCs happened when immunity was still "rare", i.e. there was an overwhelmingly larger number of uninfected people than infected (at least that we can estimate, the estimates *were* all kind of messy) | 01:31 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: i don't think i said that? | 01:32 |
| notdaniel | LjL: true | 01:32 |
| de-facto | you imply that by suggesting it may be a good idea to not prevent transmission | 01:32 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: i did not mean to imply that | 01:32 |
| LjL | notdaniel, de-facto is still not really talking about lockdowns, but about all kinds of things that keep Rt below 1. he'd try very hard to find what the most effective ones are, and keep them going permanently. that's my understanding. | 01:33 |
| notdaniel | I didn't even imply that it would be a good idea to limit transmission | 01:33 |
| notdaniel | Not limit* | 01:33 |
| notdaniel | LjL: has anyone succeeded at that? | 01:33 |
| notdaniel | Rt<1 | 01:33 |
| de-facto | it means daily new infections go down not up | 01:34 |
| LjL | notdaniel, until Omicron, some countries appeared fairly successful. with Omicron, i've seen some "divergence" between similar countries, some getting it back under control, and some having huge spikes. Korea, Japan... (i won't say China or Australia or NZ because those were zero-covid strategies) | 01:34 |
| LjL | %cases South Korea | 01:35 |
| notdaniel | LjL: are you sure those weren't just because of growing immunity due to exposure? | 01:35 |
| LjL | %cases Italy | 01:35 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: South Korea has had 13.1 million confirmed cases (25.3% of all people) and 16230 deaths (0.1% of cases; 1 in 3190 people) as of 20 hours ago. 85.3 million tests were done (1.6 per capita, 15.3% positive). 44.3 million were vaccinated (85.5%). +320675 cases, +375 deaths since 23 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Korea&legacy=no | 01:35 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Italy has had 14.6 million confirmed cases (24.3% of all people) and 159383 deaths (1.1% of cases; 1 in 378 people) as of 5 hours ago. 200.9 million tests were done (3.3 per capita, 7.3% positive). 48.5 million were vaccinated (80.6%). +66806 cases, +159 deaths, +486813 tests since 23 hours ago. See https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-dashboard or https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/ | 01:35 |
| LjL | notdaniel, the exposure was insignificant. look at the graph: South Korea had virtually no cases compared to the spike they're having now, while Italy had many cases all along. yet they've both reached 25% now, because Korea had a recent HUGE spike. | 01:36 |
| LjL | so i guess my conclusion is that it can work, but then if the rest of the world keeps getting more infectious variants, eventually you catch up :( | 01:36 |
| LjL | still, it worked for nearly two years | 01:36 |
| de-facto | its a decision about the best strategy that is being made by management of a location | 01:37 |
| LjL | (but also, even now, Korea has 1 in 3000 people who have died from it, while Italy has one in 380, that's almost an order of magnitude difference, so Korea has either tested better than Italy, or treated patients better, or both) | 01:38 |
| de-facto | also AU and NZ did very well until they decided to give up containment | 01:38 |
| de-facto | currently CN is fighting hard against Omicron afaik | 01:38 |
| de-facto | BA.2.2 i guess? | 01:38 |
| LjL | de-facto, maybe AU and NZ have given up because they expected they would end up in the same situation as China anyway ;( | 01:38 |
| LjL | i.e. they saw that with Omicron they'd just try very hard and it would fail anyway | 01:38 |
| de-facto | its still an open question, imho about how determined a strategy is implemented | 01:39 |
| LjL | you model things, you try to see whether your proposed very strict containment measures actually keep R<1... and when they don't anymore, the reason you've used to convince everybody to keep doing them goes away | 01:39 |
| de-facto | i am not saying that CN found the best way of doing it, but at least they *try* (opposed to many other places that have basically given up on their populations) | 01:40 |
| LjL | you can't have very strict measures for two years with the promise "once we get out of it we'll be stronger than the countries that were hit hard, just wait for the vaccines! etc", and then after two years say "actually, we need even stronger measures because of Omicron, and we'll probably need ever-stronger ones in the future". i mean, you can, but you'll just get lynched :P | 01:40 |
| LjL | "trying" when your model says you'll fail can be argue not to be a good idea | 01:41 |
| LjL | argued | 01:41 |
| de-facto | again, the impact of having given up to prevent infections will only become apparent after the fact that significant parts of a population has to realize that their trajectory of recovery is saturated at a state that did not restore fully their previous health | 01:42 |
| de-facto | so its hard to compare that to impacts that are immediately obvious such as seeing people wearing masks or taking tests or preventing large group gatherings etc | 01:43 |
| LjL | sure, but i don't see how that is even related to what i was saying. we're talking past each other because the reality is that things are going to be very bad, in one way or another, no matter what we do. | 01:46 |
| LjL | and so we just cling to whichever Linus blanket we happen to have | 01:47 |
| de-facto | sorry it was not meant at direct response, more as a general remark about long-COVID vs impact from cutting down transmission paths | 01:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD (@michaelzlin): Speculation: Hospitalized may be mostly those with prior infection by BA.1 but without vaccination. They're not well protected against later hospitalization by BA.2, because it's like 1 vax dose against a different strain. But they're going about [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1509677150923755555 | 01:49 |
| de-facto | we can not promise anything to people because we just do not know what the future will bring for COVID | 01:49 |
| de-facto | but we do know that a significant part of infected get affected long term with unclear chances to ever regain their full health to a point comparable to pre-infection, imho reason enough to lower the production rates of such problems (by lowering infection rates) until we do know more about these problems | 01:52 |
| LjL | it's been two years, though. two years. it *is* true that people less fortunate than us are in the street... | 01:52 |
| de-facto | well yes, and thats of course also a problem requiring a solution, yet ignoring the pathogen ruining more peoples lives is not part of such a solution, on the contrary, more infections will cause more economic damage and thereby even increase the problem of unemployment and poverty | 01:54 |
| de-facto | a solution would have to integrate both, hence aim for reducing infecitons rates and at the same time prevent unemployment and poverty | 01:55 |
| de-facto | it probably requires restructuring of some parts of a society, but that probably is a gain towards a more robust hence better system | 01:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Samoa: +170 cases since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +74959 cases since 23 hours ago | 01:59 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: do you really think we can ever eradicate covid though? | 02:04 |
| notdaniel | Because if not any lockdowns would only ever delay the inevitable and cause economic damage | 02:05 |
| notdaniel | Whereas, as I've said before, I'm unaware of significant economic damage from a covid infected workforce | 02:05 |
| LjL | again, he's not talking about lockdowns, he's talking about measures that can be *sustained* over a long (possibly very long) period of time, that can keep R below 1 even if slightly, while at the same time not impacting society to the point it breaks down | 02:06 |
| LjL | one thing i'll bring up since i've been reminded of it (and it's a pretty bad thing) is that healthcare is going down the gutter in many countries. to be fair, people opposing lockdown-like things blame those for it, and those not opposing them blame the COVID spread... but i think no matter which side of this we're on, it's important to recognize the *other* healthcare issues are impacted heavily | 02:07 |
| notdaniel | <de-facto> "having failed containment that..." <- LjL: i only started the conversation because of this statement | 02:10 |
| LjL | notdaniel, okay, but i know what that statement means because it's not the first time he expresses these thoughts. he means he thinks we should lockdown now *because* our less-than-lockdown containment strategies have been so bad we haven't been able to keep R below 1 - not because it's impossible, but just because they've been half-assed and bad - and so the only way to try again is go back to square one with a lockdown, and then try more effective measures | 02:12 |
| notdaniel | Measures to reduce the spread are great so long as they don't negatively effect other things | 02:12 |
| LjL | so, lockdowns aren't the objective, lockdowns are something you have to do when you have not been good enough at non-lockdown strategies | 02:13 |
| notdaniel | LjL: that doesn't make it an excusable position, lockdowns are *always* a bad idea, at least given what we know now | 02:13 |
| LjL | notdaniel, well, they will to some extent, so we also must take care of the other things somehow. in this respect i think the USA is a very bad example (not to say that anywhere else is great, not even close, just the US is eminently bad), because on the one hand there hasn't been a coherent strategy with restrictions at all, every county doing a different thing; on the other, there is very little (financial, chiefly) support for people who get sick or are | 02:14 |
| LjL | otherwise affected by any restriction. | 02:14 |
| notdaniel | I agree | 02:15 |
| LjL | notdaniel, well, i'm just describing what i think is his position, because i thought you were misinterpreting it. i disagree with that blanket statement, though, but i'm not sure i want to argue it to death. | 02:15 |
| notdaniel | The economic devastation here has far outdone covid | 02:15 |
| de-facto | simple example: wearing masks allows students to participate at university in presence, without lockdowns | 02:15 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: wearing masks isn't a terrible idea | 02:16 |
| LjL | and yet mask mandates are being removed, even in the EU... | 02:16 |
| LjL | the direction we seem to be taking is "let's make people just forget COVID exists. they'll get it, or they'll suffer its effects indirectly, but at least they won't be panicking about it all the time." | 02:17 |
| notdaniel | LjL: well yeah mask *mandates* are a bad idea | 02:17 |
| LjL | so: less testing, less data reporting, less visible measures like masks that always remind us of it, less vaccine passports, and so on | 02:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Artificial pancreas to revolutionise diabetes care in England: It can eliminate the need for finger prick tests and prevent life-threatening attacks, say experts. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60133358 | 02:17 |
| de-facto | i do of course want that most things are still possible, but we have to adapt to the circumstances we currently have to deal with, and unfortunately that means taking into account the pathogen | 02:17 |
| notdaniel | PPE like that requires technique to be effective, mandating 'face coverings' doesn't do the same thing | 02:18 |
| LjL | notdaniel, then instruct people on how to use them. i've only seem some very half-assed public service announcements about that here, despite a staggering amount of people in the street (and on TV, talking about COVID!) wearing their masks with the nose out :| | 02:19 |
| LjL | that's the sort of half-assedness i'm thinking about when i talk about measures being half-assed | 02:19 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: many of us are completely unconcerned by covid, why should those who are afraid of it dictate what the rest of society does, even at the expense of their livelihoods? | 02:19 |
| de-facto | so requiring everyone to wear FFP2 masks, measuring CO2 and ensuring air-exchange enabled us to always offer in presence events for the students, without those measures a lot of infections would have happened and participation in presence would have had to be canceled, yet not everything is possible online | 02:20 |
| LjL | what if i'm really unconcerned by fear of car accidents, should i be allowed to drive at any speed? | 02:20 |
| notdaniel | LjL: I'm not an expert but what I've heard from medical professionals is things like masks can never be reused, once they are worn they cant be handled and must be safely discarded etc, stuff no ordinary person would do | 02:21 |
| LjL | there have actually been studies on how to reuse them safely, given in practice it has been a necessity to reuse them due to scarcity | 02:21 |
| notdaniel | LjL: Ironically this is another issue i feel really strongly on yes, short answer being germany does it and they have fewer accidents than the usa | 02:22 |
| LjL | and some of this research has found that done properly, they *can* be reused a fair amount of times | 02:22 |
| LjL | germany doesn't do it except on like two tiny stretches of motorways | 02:22 |
| LjL | that's a myth | 02:22 |
| LjL | they don't have a nationwide speed limit | 02:22 |
| LjL | that doesn't mean that on 99% of roads there isn't a speed limit. there is. | 02:22 |
| notdaniel | Pardon? | 02:22 |
| de-facto | notdaniel, i do not care if others are able to understand or are concerned or not concerned, i do care about preventing the cause of people landing in the hospital or even loosing the fight for their live, obviously those did not care enough to understand it in advance, just as those that did not care enough about long-COVID in advance and only regret after the fact of having ruined their health. Honestly i do care about data and statistics not | 02:23 |
| de-facto | about peoples opinions | 02:23 |
| notdaniel | The autobahn is like the us interstate highway system | 02:23 |
| LjL | also i think leaning on "yes" on that is crazy enough i will, again, make an effort to stop interacting. i'm sure someone from germany can pop up to explain how german roads work. | 02:23 |
| LjL | notdaniel, yes, most stretches of autobahn *have* speed limits | 02:23 |
| LjL | like, the vast majority | 02:23 |
| notdaniel | LjL: yes i have friends who live in germany | 02:24 |
| notdaniel | Even one on libera | 02:24 |
| de-facto | so in order to prevent the problems that obviously exist for a very significant amount of people we would have to agree on the cause for this: the infection itself | 02:24 |
| de-facto | hence reducing the rate of producing cases with that cause (the infections) will also reduce the rate of producing the associated problems | 02:25 |
| LjL | (also my original question wasn't in any respect limited to motorways) | 02:25 |
| notdaniel | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autobahn?wprov=sfla1 %70 of about 13000km has no speed limit | 02:25 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: People need to be allowed to risk their own lives, otherwise insanity results | 02:27 |
| de-facto | thats not how a society works | 02:27 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: well it depends on the society | 02:27 |
| notdaniel | For many today you are correct | 02:28 |
| de-facto | even in US if you have a gun, you are not allowed to freely shoot around on everybody just because you like to do so | 02:28 |
| LjL | "own lives" is arguable, but here we're arguing risking *others'* lives together with your own | 02:28 |
| LjL | that's why i avoided making an example with, say, wearing seatbelts, and went with speed limits | 02:28 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: that would be risking other peoples lives, not your own | 02:28 |
| LjL | so is walking around with covid | 02:28 |
| notdaniel | LjL: no | 02:29 |
| de-facto | notdaniel, people dying from COVID did get infected in advance by the carelessness of other carriers | 02:29 |
| de-facto | or having their health ruined etc | 02:29 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: again, you can't hold people responsible for that | 02:29 |
| de-facto | why not? | 02:29 |
| LjL | we can and we do | 02:30 |
| LjL | you disagree with it | 02:30 |
| LjL | that's different | 02:30 |
| LjL | (or, we *did*, given current trends) | 02:30 |
| de-facto | i do really care about NOT infecting other people in my society, thats the reason i test myself and also that i wear a mask | 02:30 |
| de-facto | thats why i allow myself to participate in society | 02:31 |
| notdaniel | de-facto: because the burden on society is too high | 02:31 |
| de-facto | imho thats a requirement, to honor other peoples freedom to not get harmed by my participation in society | 02:32 |
| de-facto | and honestly I do expect the same from everyone else | 02:32 |
| notdaniel | We don't hold people personally liable for co2 emissions from heating their homes | 02:32 |
| notdaniel | Or letting their iot devices become part of a botnet | 02:33 |
| notdaniel | Or any number of other things that are almost impossible to control | 02:33 |
| de-facto | i think we do | 02:34 |
| notdaniel | In general if someone doesn't want to be exposed to covid (a virus that is *everywhere*) shouldn't it be their responsibility? Especially since measures are most effective when taken by vulnerable people rather than those who are infected | 02:35 |
| de-facto | there are limits on CO2 emissions for a reason, and of course people are not allowed to just do anything they like from their internet connections, if there is a good way to prevent harm, societies require that such measures are taken, and imho rightfully so | 02:36 |
| notdaniel | At least we got to the bottom of the issue i guesd | 02:36 |
| notdaniel | I gotta think about the philosophical problem more | 02:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR Science: COVID-19 infection increases your risk for diabetes, a new study says: Researchers found that people who had COVID-19 were about 40% more likely to develop diabetes within a year after recovering, compared to participants in a control group. → https://www.npr.org/2022/03/31/1090080198/covid-19-diabetes-increased-risk | 02:37 |
| de-facto | people that insist to expand their own convenience and freedom on the cost of other peoples freedom or even accept to willingly harm their health with their ignorance have no right to profit from participating in a society that builds upon working together, because such an egocentric attitude is deeply unethical, even most (democratic) jurisdictions aim for preventing harm to while at the same time maximizing freedom and rights | 02:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Australia: +60329 cases, +19 deaths since 23 hours ago — Slovakia: +8429 cases since 15 hours ago — Canada: +8542 cases, +38934 tests since 23 hours ago | 03:08 |
| de-facto | %title https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_imperative | 03:24 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From en.wikipedia.org: Categorical imperative - Wikipedia | 03:24 |
| LjL | you know you can just do | 03:27 |
| LjL | %wik categorical imperative | 03:27 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, from English Wikipedia: The categorical imperative (German: kategorischer Imperativ) is the central philosophical concept in the deontological moral philosophy of Immanuel Kant. Introduced in Kant's 1785 Groundwork of the Metaphysic of Morals, it is a way of evaluating motivations for action. It is best known in its [... want %more?] → https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_imperative | 03:27 |
| de-facto | ah yes i forgot that one :) | 03:32 |
| de-facto | %more | 03:34 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, [...] original formulation: "Act only according to that maxim whereby you can, at the same time, will that it should become a universal law." → https://paste.ee/p/6tp7J | 03:34 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, [...] maskless and getting larger doses twitter.com/walidgellad/st… → https://paste.ee/p/JczQp | 03:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The BA.2 variant situation in Shanghai is deteriorating with unreported deaths"Orderlies, nurses and doctors, we're all infected"wsj.com/articles/unrep… @xinwenfan → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1509704109783334916 | 03:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Unknown, China: +8186 cases since a day ago — France: +169697 cases since 22 hours ago — United Kingdom: +2 deaths since 7 hours ago | 04:04 |
| LjL | Unknown, China O.o | 04:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: Predictors of post-COVID symptoms in Egyptian patients: Drugs used in COVID-19 treatment are incriminated → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/ttffoi/predictors_of_postcovid_symptoms_in_egyptian/ | 04:22 |
| LjL | uh oh | 04:25 |
| LjL | uhm, "An on-line cross-sectional survey using Google Forms was used to conduct the present study, which took place between June and August 2021." not sure that's the kind of method i have most confidence about | 04:27 |
| LjL | "Most participants had mild to moderate COVID-19 (81.31%). The prevalence of post-COVID-19 symptoms was 87.63%" that would be the highest i've ever seen i think, also considering "The mean age of participants was 41.4 years" | 04:27 |
| LjL | "longer disease duration, and severe and critical disease were significantly associated with the presence of post-COVID symptoms, (P = 0.04, 0.01, 0.001, < 0.001, and < 0.001 respectively)." which is unsurprising, but then | 04:29 |
| LjL | "Concerning the effect of medications on post-COVID symptoms, results showed that the use of antibiotics, antiviral, anticoagulants, and corticosteroids in treatment was a significant factor for the development of these symptoms (P = 0.001, 0.02, 0.003 and < 0.001 respectively)." this, i find surprising! that *all* of those drugs would be "factors for the development" of long COVID. but... wouldn't those drugs be much more often used in severe/longer cases? | 04:30 |
| LjL | "In the current study, 87.63% of participants experienced one or more post-COVID symptoms. This is concordant with other studies where the prevalence of post-COVID syndrome ranged from 87 to 94% [12–14]." - is it really? not in western studies i've seen... high, but not *that* high | 04:31 |
| LjL | "This coincides with previous studies which reported about 35% prevalence in patients treated for COVID-19 on outpatient basis, but around 87% among hospitalized patients [13, 14]." well if most cases in this study were mild, how does it really coincide? | 04:32 |
| LjL | "Moreover, antiviral and anticoagulant therapy were significantly associated with persistence of COVID symptoms. This is expected as these drugs are prescribed for severe and critical cases." oh, okay, they know it | 04:32 |
| LjL | still it looks like they have an agenda of not overprescribing antibiotics and corticosteroids. which is probably a fine agenda to have, but aren't they selectively applying "yes, we know correlation is not causation" only to the drugs they don't care to tut-tut about? | 04:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Thailand: +28379 cases, +92 deaths since 23 hours ago | 05:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +247242 cases since 15 hours ago | 06:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Selangor, Malaysia: +10735 cases, +11 deaths since 23 hours ago — Saitama, Japan: +4394 cases, +11 deaths since 23 hours ago — Chiba, Japan: +2954 cases since 23 hours ago — Hokkaido, Japan: +2106 cases, +4 deaths since 23 hours ago | 08:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Science: science: Pfizer, Moderna vaccines aren’t the same; study finds antibody differences → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/ttjsjd/pfizer_moderna_vaccines_arent_the_same_study/ | 08:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: New Mutant XE Omicron Variant May Be Most Transmissible Covid Yet → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/ttkku6/new_mutant_xe_omicron_variant_may_be_most/ | 09:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): Clear that Chinese Covid data cannot be trusted: a world beating case fatality rate of 0.006% is obviously entirely impossible. A CFR of 0.1% would have been more believable... twitter.com/PaulMainwood/s… → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1509789410723778568 | 09:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): We have a world-scale human challenge trial ongoing, whereby omicron will infect half the world population, but without the benefit of it being an actual trial. So if volunteers would like to enroll in challenge trials I would find this entirely ethical... [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1509794841496014852 | 09:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: Narrowing the vaccine gap as boosters begin for people over 50: Among those over 50, 15% aren't fully vaccinated and 50% haven't received a booster. Protecting those at greatest risk requires more federal funding. → https://www.statnews.com/2022/04/01/narrowing-the-vaccine-gap-as-boosters-begin-for-people-over-50/ | 10:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): Quite a consistent peaking of positivity rates in most provinces in Belgium now. Let's hope this signals the decline of the Omicron BA.2 wave... pic.twitter.com/A6lOQuQfSt → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1509816566833192961 | 11:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: Citing ProPublica’s Reporting on McKinsey, Senators Propose Bill Addressing Contractors’ Conflicts of Interest: by Ian MacDougall ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. [... want %more?] → https://www.propublica.org/article/citing-propublicas-reporting-on-mckinsey-senators-propose-bill-addressing-contractors-conflicts-of-interest#1290519 | 11:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/COVID19: COVID19: SARS-CoV-2 spike protein induces cognitive deficit and anxiety-like behavior in mouse via non-cell autonomous hippocampal neuronal death → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/ttmc31/sarscov2_spike_protein_induces_cognitive_deficit/ | 12:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC): "There is a compromise around $10B which should be enough to fund the procurement of vaccines going into the fall, and the continued procurement of the therapeutics," says @ScottGottliebMD. "These markets can be transitioned to normal commercial distribution--just [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1509851349541953540 | 13:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): "Omicron seems so poorly immunogenic that it doesn’t even stimulate good immunity to itself – something that should be noted by all those thinking they may as well go out and get infected as a ‘natural booster’,"Just as we warned before. twitter.com/Karl_Lauterbac… → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/1509853394579636224 | 13:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Record 4.9 million people have the virus in UK: The latest data from the ONS suggests some 4.9 million people in the UK are infected with the virus. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60953501 | 13:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Vanuatu: +331 cases since 23 hours ago | 14:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: In the wake of Covid, a World Health Assembly proposal would bolster quality of clinical trials → https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2022/04/01/covid19-clinical-trials-transparency-global-health/ | 14:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 01APR22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/ttp8ka/global_covid_cases_for_01apr22/ | 14:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: First human challenge study of Covid-19 yields valuable insights about how we get sick: Infected people can shed high levels of virus without any symptoms. → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/ttpjea/first_human_challenge_study_of_covid19_yields/ | 14:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +251584 cases since 23 hours ago | 15:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: Tackling Rumors of a Suspicious Origin of nCoV2019: “This statement, as written, is true. The only scientists with authority are those whose statements are backed, not just by their reputation, but also by data.” There is a lack of data on the [... want %more?] → https://virological.org/t/tackling-rumors-of-a-suspicious-origin-of-ncov2019/384/30 | 15:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: General: COVID-19: latest updates → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/covid-19-latest-updates | 15:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu): Small Friday update - couple more European BA.1 x BA.2 recombinants designated - XM and XN:XM - mainly Netherlands and Germany, ~60 sequences currently (spotted by @JosetteSchoenma)XN - another UK recombinant, ~100 sequences currently (spotted by @nzm8qs) [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1509891348060647435 | 15:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): This will help reduce the magnitude of the BA.2 wave w/ ~40% Americans BA.1 infected"The cross-neutralization of BA.1-infected sera against BA.2 ... suggests the recent BA.1-infected individuals are likely to be protected against the ongoing BA.2 [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1509895741090586631 | 16:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): New @ONS reportUK Covid infections reach record high in BA.2 waveons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… and @mroliverbarnes @FT pic.twitter.com/siJ8mqBgxh → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1509898346554863618 | 16:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): While most Western Europe countries are in descent of their BA.2 waves, that's not the case in Germany or France pic.twitter.com/57tqemoptK → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1509900150663114755 | 16:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): So while we continue to study COVID-19 origins, maybe we can also come together to think about how to limit risks of both zoonotic & lab-associated pandemics in future. There is plenty of room to disagree on best way to do that, but we should recognize the validity [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1509904199399530500 | 16:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +10922 cases, +70 deaths since 22 hours ago — Germany: +237109 cases since 22 hours ago — United Kingdom: +693 cases since 20 hours ago | 17:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Compared with the Delta variant, in children less than age 5, Omicron led to ~7-fold more infections and substantially less severe outcomes. With such a multiplier, however, that equates to a large number of severe outcomes with Omicron@JAMAPediatrics [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1509910247715926018 | 17:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Psychological Distress During COVID-19 Pandemic → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05307588 | 17:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): COVID-19 and Brain: Cognition and Mental Health → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05307549 | 17:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Incidence Rates and Clinical Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Infection With the Omicron and Delta Variants in Children Younger Than 5 Years in the USOmicron infections 7x that of Delta, but severe clinical outcomes were less frequent than with Delta variant. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/1509933178366140434 | 18:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): Supposedly the 1st registered intranasal Covid19 vaccine. Haven't seen the data, so not sure how trustworthy this is, but would wish their development could be sped up. If these could be self-administered & would block transmission better they could be a [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1509940194622980098 | 19:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): Western intranasal vaccines mostly still seems to be in Phase I or II, clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?co…. → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1509943235329810437 | 19:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Early US BA.2 wave stateslog-plot, all ≤ 16/100,000 new cases, which is low, but increasing pic.twitter.com/s6LuMRV6JT → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1509945240957857797 | 19:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Systematic review of 40 reports of vaccine-associated myocarditismedrxiv.org/content/10.110…93% of cases resolved symptoms and recovered → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1509950352015077381 | 19:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +77040 cases, +154 deaths, +514823 tests since 23 hours ago | 20:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The vaccination/booster stress test. How critical it is to have people of advanced age protected. twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1509961034001358851 | 20:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): @fact_covid Thanks for all the invaluable work! All the best in your other endeavours → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1509964268480905222 | 20:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): @jburnmurdoch Thanks John. And your extraordinary efforts are greatly appreciated.I hope things calm down for you and we can see more garden furniture projects in future. That was a welcome break from all the horrors in my timeline and I found it [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1509965961843118084 | 20:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid in Scotland: Infections dip across Scotland but trend 'uncertain' → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60954159 | 21:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Japan: +49141 cases, +78 deaths since a day ago — United Kingdom: +69627 cases, +194 deaths since 23 hours ago — Spain: +43265 cases since 3 days ago — Germany: +240769 cases, +2316000 tests since 23 hours ago | 21:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: AIM Vaccine: LVRNA009 → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/189/ | 21:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Altimmune Inc: AdCOVID → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/75/ | 21:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Airlangga University: UNAIR Inactivated COVID-19 Vaccine → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/181/ | 21:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): When Covid myocarditis occurs, #SARSCoV2 infected heart muscle cells are quite rare; it's mainly due to inflammation. But pacemaker cells may exhibit a different pattern of infection susceptibility and auto-destruction ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CI… @CircRes [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1509983638884020224 | 22:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +148774 cases, +134 deaths since 18 hours ago | 22:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Heart problems much more likely with COVID infection than vaccine: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Apr 01, 2022 Incidence was 2 to 6 times higher after SARS-CoV-2 infection than after the second vaccine dose. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/04/heart-problems-much-more-likely-covid-infection-vaccine | 22:42 |
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