libera/##covid-19/ Saturday, 2022-07-23

BrainstormNew from NPR Science: The first U.S. polio case was discovered in nearly a decade. Should you worry?: The CDC confirmed that a patient in New York has contracted polio, the first U.S. case since 2013. But most people shouldn't be concerned about contracting the virus because of high vaccination rates. → https://www.npr.org/2022/07/22/1113018772/polio-new-york-case00:02
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Ivan Zanoni (@Lo_Zanzi): Very balanced and comprehensive summary of what we know about nasal re-challenge in the vaccinated population and mouse models, and why among other approaches this is something we should def pursue! Thanks as always @VirusesImmunity & @EricTopo!! [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Lo_Zanzi/status/155060363957996748900:30
BrainstormNew from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: AIM Vaccine: LVRNA009 → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/189/00:49
LjL<Brainstorm> New from ScienceNews: The world is ‘losing the window’ to contain monkeypox, experts warn: As the global monkeypox outbreak surges, the world is giving the “virus room to run like it never has before,” researchers say. → https://www.sciencenews.org/article/who-losing-effort-contain-monkeypox-virus00:55
LjLwhere did i hear this before00:55
Asakothey need to name names01:05
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Nextstrain (@nextstrain): Based on sustained logistic growth in frequency in India, we've designed @PangoNetwork lineage BA.2.75 as clade 22D, labeled as "22D (Omicron)" to denote it still being considered as "Omicron variant" by @WHO. 1/4 pic.twitter.com/xuWUJ1MLud → https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/155061544269515161601:08
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Operation Nasal Vaccine—Lightning speed to counter COVID-19 → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/w5oft3/operation_nasal_vaccinelightning_speed_to_counter/01:18
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD   (@michaelzlin): Based on anecdotal reports, vaccinated people without Paxlovid typically start recovering on day 3. That suggests the immune system has already responded sufficiently to start clearing the virus by day 3. It would mean Paxlovid given then wouldn't [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/155063246697680486402:14
BrainstormUpdates for Kuwait: +4325 cases, +3 deaths, +30749 tests since 11 days ago — Jamaica: +188 cases, +5 deaths, +790 tests since 23 hours ago — Syria: +23 cases since 23 hours ago02:59
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: New SARS-CoV-2 Variant BA.2.75 Evades All Approved Monoclonal Antibody Therapies → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/w5qz4x/new_sarscov2_variant_ba275_evades_all_approved/03:21
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: EMA Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) Recommends Use of the Moderna COVID-19 Booster in Adolescents (12-17 Years) in the European Union → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/w5rhe6/ema_committee_for_medicinal_products_for_human/03:49
BrainstormUpdates for France: +56 cases since 4 hours ago04:02
BrainstormUpdates for Fr. Polynesia: +334 cases since a day ago — Saint Lucia: +95 cases since a day ago — Rwanda: +58 cases, +7071 tests since a day ago05:10
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +92009 cases, +116 deaths since a day ago06:06
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 921: COVID-19 clinical update #124 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #124, Dr. Griffin discusses the results of a variant vaccine booster trial, the neutralization of variant sub-lineages by Novavax, the CDC’s recommendation of Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine in adults, Paxlovid in [... want %more?] → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-921/06:09
BrainstormUpdates for California, United States: +56207 cases, +133 deaths since a day ago — Tokyo, Japan: +34995 cases, +7 deaths since a day ago — Navarre, Spain: +33838 cases, +25 deaths since a day ago — New York, United States: +12615 cases, +23 deaths since a day ago08:04
TimvdeHuh, what the hell? According to our dashboard, BA.1 is making a (small) comeback: https://datastudio.google.com/embed/reporting/c14a5cfc-cab7-4812-848c-0369173148ab/page/urrUC09:06
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: A Day in the Life of a Public Health Professional: As the pandemic enters its third year, fatigue and frustration grow, but there is hope for the future. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/a-day-in-the-life-of-a-public-health-professional09:06
TimvdeThat must be wrong, right?09:06
de-factowhere is BA.1 on that?09:11
Timvde"Omicron"09:12
TimvdeOr was there another omicron before BA.1?09:12
TimvdeBecause then I mean that one :P09:12
de-factoto me its not clear what they mean with "Omicron", all the BA.x are Omicrons09:15
BrainstormNew from Science-Based Medicine: I Don’t Think Vaccine Side Effects Are Worse Than Death.  Am I Off My Rocker?: Contrarian doctors frame data in a misleading way to trick you into thinking vaccine side-effects are worse than death. The post  first appeared on Science-Based Medicine . → https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/framing/09:15
de-factoso maybe its an Umbrella term for all Omicron, hence possibly anything not BA.2 or BA.4/509:16
de-factoTimvde, if that assumption holds... could it be another (new) variant of Omicron possibly?09:17
TimvdeHmm, maybe. I assumed it was BA.1. I hope it's not a new variant :/09:18
de-factocould also be something that got the characteristic mutations of BA.1 but something in addition that enables its fitness growth?09:21
de-factoits unclear from that dashboard, we would need to have full sequences09:21
de-factobut it certainly is not good that something else than the currently circulating variants begins to rise, though that also could sometimes happen due to founders effect: growth boost for the variant that happens to find advantageous circumstances for reproduction, e.g. a gathering of masses where it can spread fast or such09:23
TimvdeFWIW, I *still* don't understand how a new variant can basically wipe out the previous one09:27
TimvdeThe only way that makes sense to me, is that if there wasn't a new variant, the old one would be dead and we'd be COVID-free09:27
de-factoif a newly introduced mutation (that later will characterize a new variant) enables Rt(new) > Rt(old) it is only a question of time until the new exponential function outruns the old09:43
de-factoApparent daily new infections N(t) = N(t0) Rt ^ ((t - t0)^ts) = N(t0)_new Rt_new ^ ((t-t0)^ts_new) + N(t0)_old Rt_old ^ ((t-t0)^ts_old) is the sum of the exponentials for new and old variants09:48
de-factoHence if Rt_new ^ ts_old > Rt_old ^ ts_new its only a question of time t until the new variant will dominate by contributing more daily new infections, that of course reduces to Rt_new > Rt_old if generation times ts_old = ts_new match09:57
de-factoExample: a new mutation occurs that increases pathogen fitness in terms of infectiousness and viral load (unter the currently most prevalent immunologic circumstances) on a cellular level, such carriers will have increased ability to infect other susceptible hence in each generation such mutants will generate ( Rt_new / Rt_old ) -fold the newly infected10:08
de-factoWith reproductin number Rt ~ contact_rate * transmissibility * duration_of_infectiousness10:09
de-factoso assuming same contact_rate for new and old variants it only can be either the duration_of_infectiousness (but lets assume that stays more or less the same), hence it will be the increased transmissibility (by fitness under selection pressure by current most prevalent circumstances such as immunity, environment, main transmission scenarios etc) that is responsible for increased reproduction rates10:12
de-factobtw what we observe in terms of daily new infections in such a transition period from old to new variant is that the decline stops and has a minimum then starts to rise again because we see above sum of two exponential function with different time constants10:17
de-factothat is if the previous wave already is in decline, if its also in the rise the new variant exponential will cause daily new infections to have a "kink" upwards, e.g. faster than exponential growth for the transition period until the new variant expontial growth speed dominates daily new infections10:19
BrainstormUpdates for Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan: +12 cases since 23 hours ago10:59
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: (translated) Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): No knowledge, but gut feeling. Then you don't know that infection and serious illness are different, not that vaccines or infections can't prevent infections, but can reduce them: unfortunately you do push on like a toddler and spread false pictures. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/155077145309152870411:17
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): Important    Those who think the scientific community are fighting over COVID/long COVID: A huge part of it is not scientific discourse but intended, organized, repeated dis-/misinformation from a couple of handfuls of players supported by big money from [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/155077391970726707211:35
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): "The rise and rise of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants." The world socialist website might just be injecting a little bit too much obligatory class struggle into their assessment of how the pandemic is going. :-) wsws.org/en/articles/20… pic.twitter.com/Paszpdk85v → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/155080103042574745813:19
imaginaryre that last tweet: i really don't find that funny at all13:28
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 23JUL22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/w62ggg/global_covid_cases_for_23jul22/14:16
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Centaurus: what we know about the new COVID variant and why there's no cause for alarm | 22JUL22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/w635mr/centaurus_what_we_know_about_the_new_covid/14:45
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Why Not Everyone Should Take Paxlovid | 22JUL22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/w63aez/why_not_everyone_should_take_paxlovid_22jul22/14:55
BrainstormUpdates for Kazakhstan: +2669 cases since a day ago15:01
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: 6% of kids tested for COVID at EDs had symptoms at 90 days | 22JUL22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/w63plf/6_of_kids_tested_for_covid_at_eds_had_symptoms_at/15:14
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): I am looking forward to the (closed) @niaidcivics network meeting starting on Sunday! Several days of discussing universal influenza virus vaccines - and no SARS-CoV-2 talks. → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/155083510501436620815:33
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: A novel method to detect the early warning signal of COVID-19 transmission → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/w64vry/a_novel_method_to_detect_the_early_warning_signal/16:11
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): As normal, WHO is slow, which is not optimal for epidemic response or to decrease discrimination against countries & pop groups that are affect by #Monkeypox. Time to speed up and be less bureaucratic and I personally applaud @DrTedros to push for @WHO to be [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/155084977742796390516:30
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): @Tuliodna The question I want to address with these early analyses is simply: will BA.2.75 drive a new infection wave? I would say that's likely. That's still a separate question of what the final impact will be. Infection hospitalisation ratio will in most [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/155085058454652108916:40
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): The question I am trying to address is simply: is BA.2.75 likely to cause an infection wave, either in India or elsewhere. I would say it is. How impactful this would be is still a separate question. The infection hospitalisation rate has reduced a lot & [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/155086083428866457817:18
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): But each new infection wave does add to the toll of the pandemic. And the excess death estimates I mentioned to you on this *were* correct. twitter.com/TWenseleers/st… → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/155086083563915673717:27
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Comparison of clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized patients with seasonal coronavirus infection and COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/w66sle/comparison_of_clinical_characteristics_and/17:37
BrainstormUpdates for Myanmar: +43 cases since 21 hours ago18:08
-Bridgestorm- 🌒 زلزله! Zəlzələ! Earthquake! 5.4 Mb tremor, registered by 6 agencies, with 74 reports, occurred 14 minutes ago (16:07:47 UTC), during a crescent moon night, Bandar-e Khamīr, Iran, Islamic Republic of (26.8, 55.33) likely felt 280 km away by 100 people (Twitter)18:22
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): PS2 Looking at graph below I would be reasonably confident to ascribe the most recent rise in case in Chandigarh, Delhi & Haryana to BA.2.75... twitter.com/TWenseleers/st… → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/155087690402615296218:24
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: MicrobesInfect (@MicrobesInfect): Operation Nasal Vaccine—Lightning speed to counter #COVID19There are at least 12 nasal vaccines that are in clinical development & 4 have reached Phase 3 randomized, placebo-controlled trials.- by @EricTopol @VirusesImmunity science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… → https://twitter.com/MicrobesInfect/status/155088146799923609718:53
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Prof. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity): Sincere thank you to many of you who reached out to @POTUS and @WHCOVIDResponse in support of our efforts on nasal booster vaccine    I will be speaking at the White House Summit on Future of COVID-19 Vaccines on July 26. RSVP to join via [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/155088705484587418219:02
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +69174 cases, +116 deaths, +350630 tests since a day ago19:04
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): I guess similar questionnaires would show people would prefer Covid vaccines or adapted Covid vaccines to be approved way earlier than the actual time the EMA, FDA or other national grant agencies now grant their use. Bureaucratic inertia. I'd be all up for [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/155089858865333862419:49
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Haven't we learned what this country is capable of from Operation Warp Speed? 4 (of 12) nasal vaccine trials are in Phase 3 w/ promising data but no government support to plan for manufacturing, distribution, regulatoryAs if there wasn't a problem w/ infections & [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/155090142425862963219:59
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Anyone who thinks BA.5 is just another variant isn't paying attention>200,000 new cases yesterday. Vertical. pic.twitter.com/x7wziHMZ9K → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/155090481103320268820:09
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: Researches found that wrist-worn health devices can be combined with machine learning to detect COVID-19 infections as early as two days before symptoms appear, and this could open the door to applying the use of wearable health tech for the early [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/w6a8s6/researches_found_that_wristworn_health_devices/20:18
BrainstormUpdates for Japan: +200869 cases, +74 deaths since 14 hours ago21:02
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Automated diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19 pneumonia from initial ER chest X-rays using deep learning → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/w6brct/automated_diagnosis_and_prognosis_of_covid19/21:24
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): After 2+ years, so little (no) progress towards a therapy vs #LongCovid. An interesting case report of persistent #SARSCoV2 antigen in a patient with an autoimmune condition researchsquare.com/article/rs-187… pic.twitter.com/9mEnyYUXrR → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/155092630466439987221:34
BrainstormUpdates for Sri Lanka: +72 cases, +1 deaths since 22 hours ago22:05
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +1654 cases since 23 hours ago23:01

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