libera/##covid-19/ Saturday, 2022-10-08

BrainstormUpdates for Micronesia: +1976 cases, +3 deaths since 17 hours ago — Mauritania: +25 cases since a day ago00:05
BrainstormNew from StatNews: To boost rural vaccination rates, health officials head for NASCAR: Health officials are hopeful that partnerships through groups like the Healthy Trucking of America and other rural organizations can help budge a skeptical wedge of the population. → https://www.statnews.com/2022/10/07/to-boost-rural-vaccination-rates-health-officials-head-for-nascar/00:12
de-factoyes LjL-Matrix  if they did not put you in the placebo arm :P00:26
LjL-LabRatth-that's not the human trial i meant!00:27
LjL-LabRatalso *groan* https://twitter.com/mildanalyst/status/157816498101488025600:27
de-factocontamination dose may correlate with severity in statistics?00:30
de-factoyour guess is as good as mine for whom there is a bias for wearing masks00:31
LjL-LabRatprobably a bunch of other things involved00:31
LjL-LabRataspiration00:31
LjL-LabRatdamn00:31
LjL-LabRati've spent about two hours not remembering this word00:31
LjL-LabRatafter talking to someone about it but not remembering the word00:32
LjL-LabRatnow i randomly remembered it so i had to share00:32
LjL-LabRatanyway i didn't request it, and now my arm suddenly hurt, so i'm probably dying from clots00:32
LjL-LabRattake care, don't anger Brainstorm00:32
de-factowell if your arm hurts at least *something* is still there and not transported away in your vessels :P00:33
de-factoyou would have noticed if they had injected in a vessel right away00:33
de-factosince you seem to be fine, they didnt00:33
de-factodont lay on that arm LjL-LabRat to make sure it stays exactly there in your muscle00:34
* de-facto pets Brainstorm 00:35
* Brainstorm starts to disport de-facto with some cute song and dance 00:35
LjL-LabRatde-facto, how would i have noticed? pain?00:35
LjL-LabRati won't lie on my arm unless my brain just decides to while i'm sleeping00:35
LjL-LabRatbut generally speaking i'm too afraid to feel pain if i do, so i won't :P00:35
de-factoLjL-LabRat, you could have gotten an allergic shock reaction if large amounts would have ended up in your blood vessels00:36
LjL-LabRatalthough at some point you had a theory that you should move your arm a fair bit to make it move aroudn!00:36
de-factoonly after it began to hurt a lot, you can move the muscle a *bit* (without heavy load) to increase metabolism (and thereby the recovering)00:37
de-factoat least i remember that helped me a bit00:37
LjL-LabRati think my last shot (or perhaps the second), my arm didn't hurt at all00:37
LjL-LabRatmaybe that one was the placebo shot00:38
de-factoiirc it was even recommended at CDC website to move it moderately00:38
de-facto(without pressing it or such)00:38
LjL-LabRatto be sure, my first shot, i was scared and not only i didn't move at all, but i ended up keeping it very tense in order to avoid moving it00:38
LjL-LabRatand you can bet that was the time it hurt the most00:38
LjL-LabRatwhen i stopped caring so much, it also hurt less :P00:38
* LjL-LabRat looks in pwr22's general direction00:39
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): R code of plots & multinomial fits to @GISAID & @CovidGenomicsUK data available here: github.com/tomwenseleers/…. As always, thanks to all the hard work of the data contributors! → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/157851396807079116800:40
BrainstormUpdates for North Dakota, United States: +982 cases since 3 days ago01:01
Timvdede-facto: actually, my arm hurt a tiny bit right when they gave me the vaccine01:08
TimvdeBut there's not a drop of blood on the patch, so they probably didn't hit a vein01:09
TimvdeI went to the fitness and used the crosstrainer for half an hour a couple hours later, that may have helped01:10
TimvdeAh, the reply to that tweet says:01:10
Timvde> Any booster is better than no booster, but it remains a pity we're not using the bivalent BA.5 booster yet! #Belgium01:10
Timvdeso I guess now I know for sure :P01:10
de-factowell but good for your immune system competence, if you really got to know BA.5 in person the vaccine completes with Wuhan-Hu-1 and BA.1 then01:27
de-factoquestion could be if your immune system just reacts with rising those cell lines that defeated BA.5 or if it already gained enough plasticity in the mean time (since your infections) that you can learn something significantly new from BA.101:28
de-factoi guess its a transition period that blends between those two extremes01:29
de-factoi imagine it as a landscape where height corresponds to neutralization strength and location to a specific variant01:31
de-factoan immunological event may be something like rising the landscape (and a bit of its surroundings as there is some diversity spreading around the exact antigenic fit) at a certain location corresponding to the antigen variant01:32
LjL-LabRathm i should expect a drop of blood on the bandaid if they did it wrong? is that an actual thing or do you just assume that01:34
de-factoof course with time those elevations will start to contract again, but maybe a multiple of them with correct timing may trap the variant in circulation in a "valley" where it would see a rising neutralization gradient in any antigenic drift direction01:34
LjL-LabRat(but, no way i'm taking the bandaid off without water, meaning when i shower tomorrow :P 'cause i'm a wuss)01:34
de-facto(that would be the ideal case, not sure if that is achievable with employing multiple antigenic stimuli)01:34
de-factoLjL-LabRat, i think a bit of blood (a drop or two) is normal for such injections01:35
de-factobtw there is a very interesting paper about independently converging evolution of antigenic drift worldwide01:36
de-factothere seem to be enough similarities in the immune system competence that people gained all over the world (by vaccination and infections) that the antigenic drift of the pathogen finds roughly similar solutions for circumventing those obstacles to the pathogen replication01:37
de-facto%title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.15.507787v301:38
Brainstormde-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Imprinted SARS-CoV-2 humoral immunity induces convergent Omicron RBD evolution | bioRxiv01:38
de-factoi wonder if this kind of research could be used to create an a-priori mRNA sequence for the expected convergent evolution of the S-protein and prime the immune system with that by vaccination01:39
de-factolike to try to be one step *ahead* of SARS-CoV-2 evolution (instead of reacting to it)01:40
de-factofor sure this will by itself introduce a new selection bias in a new direction then though, i wonder if it could be possible to lead the antigenic drift into a "dead end" as in above described local minimum in neutralization of the antigenic landscape01:41
de-factoalso infection introduces a lot more epitopes (each of them with their own antigenic drift relevant in the boundaries of the condition imposed by a functional viral replication)01:50
de-factohttps://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.300126501:50
de-facto%title01:50
Brainstormde-facto: From journals.plos.org: The landscape of antibody binding in SARS-CoV-2 infection | PLOS Biology01:50
LjL-LabRatMaybe it's impossible but as a layman I've long thought that what you said (anticipating the virus's next evolutionary "moves") is probably one of the few routes we have towards meaningfully getting COVID under control instead of always rushing to get the next maybe-useful shot01:56
LjL-LabRattogether maybe with intranasal shots, and antivirals that work (more Paxlovid, less Molnupiravir, thanks)'01:56
LjL-LabRatdo you think given this is a *fourth* shot, antibodies may rise more rapidly than even a week? in like... 5 days i have an x-rays to do, and they tend to do those in pretty air-starved underground places02:05
LjL-LabRatand i assume i'll have to take my mask off since it involves the neck and head02:05
LjL-LabRatwell i guess this clarifies the situation wrt human data for the Pfizer/BNT BA.4/5 vaccine02:10
LjL-LabRathttps://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-and-biontechs-omicron-ba4ba5-adapted-bivalent-covid-1902:10
LjL-LabRatnote "October 7, 2022"02:10
LjL-LabRat"The authorization of COMIRNATY Original & Omicron BA.4/BA.5 is based on clinical data from Pfizer and BioNTech’s monovalent (“original” vaccine), Omicron BA.1-adapted bivalent vaccine as well as pre-clinical and manufacturing data from their Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent vaccine. A clinical study investigating the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of the Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent vaccine in individuals 12 years of age and02:10
LjL-LabRatolder is currently underway. This data will be provided to the authorities in the coming months."02:10
LjL-LabRatso in other words, it's based on the fact the original vaccine works, the BA.1 vaccine was tested without anyone dropping dead, and the assumption that this means the BA.4/5 vaccine will probably be similar02:11
LjL-LabRatand this is a submission for children 5-1102:11
LjL-LabRati call it "too soon" but whatever, i have it in my arm02:11
LjL-LabRatat least i can stop looking for human data. there just aren't any.02:12
de-factoyeah, but there is 1) experience with the platform and previous variants such as Wuhan-Hu-1 and BA.1 2) experience with infections of BA.5 wild type 3) lab data about antibody neutralization afaik02:14
de-factoand people like you that got immunized with bivalent Wuhan-Hu-1 + BA.5 S-protein sequences, meaning spreading the immune system answer in the antigenic landscape between two peaks around those antigenic locations02:16
LjL-LabRati guess. as i said i'd like to see the data on antibody neutralization, because the data about that on the BA.1 vaccine are pretty lackluster, so I'm quite curious is the ones on BA.4/5 are so much better that it warrants giving it to people without further testing02:16
LjL-LabRatyes yes all that but still tell me that we *know* there isn't, say, a delayed autoimmune reaction to the spike protein in the BA.5 vaccine that isn't there in the original vaccine... and I'll shut up. my point being: the platform is the platform, but different mRNA can certainly also cause different reactions from the body02:17
de-factoBA.5 wild type infections are in circulation in EU/Germany at least since June/July 2202:17
LjL-LabRat"The safety of a booster dose of COMIRNATY Original/Omicron BA.4-5 is inferred from safety data for a booster dose of COMIRNATY Original/Omicron BA.1, as well as for a booster dose of COMIRNATY Original." ← this is not what the doctor/nurse i talked to today said, she said it was all nonsense and that "all our vaccines" are thoroughly tested. so, that's one thing, she lied. i don't like lies. this vaccine did not underwent a clinical *human* trial, period.02:18
de-factoand for those wild type infections i am not aware of reports about additional auto-immunological events (in comparision to previous Omicrons)02:18
de-facto(e.g. BA.5 vs BA.1 or such)02:19
de-factoLjL-LabRat, MDs and even more often nurses just dont know such things, unfortunately02:20
LjL-LabRatif they're happy to lie to me about this, which honestly is a pretty important difference (tried on humans vs not), what else will they lie about? if this is "the tinfoil fallacy", then let it be it, and just wonder how many people will get a 5th or 6th dose when they learn they have been lied to as to the status of the 4th02:20
LjL-LabRatde-facto, they are in a big vaccine center, doing nothing but jabbing people all day. they certainly should be instructed about it.02:20
LjL-LabRatif you could all be instructed with an informational video that you had to watch, then surely they can make the doctors watch one too :P02:21
LjL-LabRatalso, i'm going through BNT's press releases, and I find it interesting that they made a press release about the FDA approving their BA.4/5 vaccine, but nothing about the EMA doing the same :\02:22
de-factothey probably do know everything about the procedure itself, but certainly not everything about the development and approval process, that is the responsibility of agencies such as FDA, EMA, PEI and STIKO02:22
de-factoi do agree with you LjL-LabRat but in your place i would have decided to do the same as you did02:23
LjL-LabRatyeah, because you know the BA.1 vaccine isn't so great. but we aren't even clear on whether this one is any greater, even in lab tests on antibody titers...02:25
de-factoi mean you got a vaccination that includes a variant that still is in circulation (and even contributes a majority of incidence with its variantions), thats pretty up to date02:25
LjL-LabRat"Pre-clinical data showed a booster dose of Pfizer and BioNTech's Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent vaccine generated a strong neutralizing antibody response against Omicron BA.1, BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5 variants, as well as the original wild-type strain." ← yeah? show me the data please, thanks BNT :P02:26
LjL-LabRatwhat about this02:33
LjL-LabRat" Clinical data from a Phase 2/3 trial showed a booster dose of Pfizer and BioNTech’s Omicron BA.1-adapted bivalent vaccine elicited a superior immune response against the Omicron BA.1 subvariant compared to the companies’ current COVID-19 vaccine, with a favorable safety profile. Additionally, pre-clinical data showed a booster dose of the BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent vaccine generated a strong neutralizing antibody response against the Omic02:33
LjL-LabRatron sublineages including BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, as well as the original virus, while retaining a favorable safety profile."02:33
LjL-LabRatthis is from Pfizer https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-receive-positive-chmp-opinion-omicron-002:33
LjL-LabRatthey're talking about the BA.1 vaccine's response and the BA.5's vaccine response in the same terms02:33
LjL-LabRatshould that mean to me that the BA.5 vaccine only doubles antibody titers against BA.5, same as the BA.1 vaccine does?02:34
LjL-LabRat(because that's the "superior immune response": not very superior)02:34
LjL-LabRatwhy can't they link to the data on antibodies, just as they would give data in old press releases02:34
LjL-LabRatI find https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.21.22278552v1 which says "Taken together, these results suggest that inclusion of the Omicron BA.5 strain in a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine would be beneficial in protection against the widely circulating BA.5 variant."02:42
LjL-LabRatthat's fine, you found that the BA.1 vaccine or the wuhan vaccine are not good enough against BA.502:42
LjL-LabRatso you make a vaccine against BA.502:42
LjL-LabRatnow i suppose you should maybe show that that one *is* better against BA.5? but i'm not finding that02:42
LjL-LabRatit's not automatically better, just as we expected the BA.1 one to be much better and then it was meh'02:43
LjL-LabRathmm, on another topic02:47
LjL-LabRat%print https://twitter.com/Dereklowe/status/157842835240624947202:47
BrainstormLjL-LabRat, It says: Derek Lowe on Twitter: "More on Paxlovid, and less compelling than the data I linked to today. The same UK team that reported on molnupiravir have data coming on Paxlovid as well, and that will be very useful to see:" / Twitter02:47
LjL-LabRat(I was browsing Twitter though because I'd like to ask some of these people who follow the stuff closely if there IS any data on how powerful the BA.5 vaccine may be at least antibody titer-wise... but I'm afraid I'm not familiar enough with any of them to just ask them such a question for personal reasons)02:49
LjL-LabRatah, Moderna has some data (though I didn't take Moderna, heh)02:51
LjL-LabRathttps://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2022/Moderna-Announces-Bivalent-Booster-mRNA-1273.214-Demonstrates-Potent-Neutralizing-Antibody-Response-Against-Omicron-Subvariants-BA.4-And-BA.5/default.aspx02:51
LjL-LabRatah wait this is still a BA.1 booster, as shown by the boosting of BA.4 and .5 being much lower...02:52
LjL-LabRatI'm getting to the fringe... but at least, the fringe seem to have some data from somewhere... https://twitter.com/AboutIndia/status/156509792325141299202:54
BrainstormUpdates for Norway: +91 cases since 23 hours ago03:00
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A data-driven segment on vaccines and boosters worth watching.Thanks @chrislhayes for staying on this as we face a new wave in the weeks ahead with an exceptionally low (34%) booster rate (half that of all high income countries) twitter.com/allinwithchris… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/157855953002721280003:40
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +122265 cases, +129 deaths since 23 hours ago05:04
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 943: Clinical update with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In his weekly clinical update Dr. Griffin discusses high points of the multi-national monkeypox outbreaks, monkeypox virus genome mutations, possible occupational infection of healthcare workers with monkeypox virus, rates of monkeypox cases by [... want %more?] → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-943/06:11
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Duration of immune protection of SARS-CoV-2 natural infection against reinfection → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/xyl0gl/duration_of_immune_protection_of_sarscov2_natural/08:04
BrainstormUpdates for California, United States: +12435 cases, +84 deaths since a day ago — Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany: +8832 cases, +13 deaths since a day ago — Emilia-Romagna, Italy: +4091 cases, +8 deaths since a day ago — Thuringen, Germany: +3093 cases, +5 deaths since a day ago08:04
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | October 08, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/xylzbi/daily_discussion_thread_october_08_2022/09:10
BrainstormUpdates for Mexico: +4731 cases, +63 deaths since 3 days ago10:03
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD   (@michaelzlin): If you were waiting on flu shots, might not want to wait much longer. Test+ rate rising quickly, and case #'s are tracking 2mo ahead of last year.Meanwhile COVID19 test+ is steadySo if you got BA5 this summer, you could get flu now and bivalent [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/157865965408677068810:16
BrainstormUpdates for Tamil Nadu, India: +387 cases since a day ago — Chiapas, Mexico: +359 cases, +1 deaths since 3 days ago — Gujarat, India: +100 cases, +1 deaths since a day ago — Chhattisgarh, India: +60 cases since a day ago11:05
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Impact of vaccination on post-acute sequelae of SARS CoV-2 infection in patients with rheumatic diseases → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/xyo8xt/impact_of_vaccination_on_postacute_sequelae_of/11:23
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Seasonality of Common Human Coronaviruses, United States, 2014–2021wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/28… pic.twitter.com/NqZuuUMctf → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/157867839082739712011:32
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Post-Acute Effect of SARS-CoV-2 Infection on the Cardiac Autonomic Function → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/xyosxk/postacute_effect_of_sarscov2_infection_on_the/12:00
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): I think we might need @jburnmurdoch to briefly return to Covid graph making to plot some of this data properly. This is how Covid hospitalisations are going in Germany... ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro… pic.twitter.com/9AViZBPN3p → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/157869458477056409612:38
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): Big surprise there: "the data collectively point to what we would hope: updating the vaccine is helpful". nature.com/articles/s4159… → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/157869818389058765412:57
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 08OCT22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/xyqkyw/global_covid_cases_for_08oct22/13:44
BrainstormUpdates for China: +5401 cases, +13 deaths since 15 hours ago — Hong Kong: +4900 cases, +13 deaths since 23 hours ago13:59
BrainstormNew from Retraction Watch: Weekend reads: Whistleblowers win a victory; a look at COVID-19 retractions; journals as sewage treatment plants: Would you consider a donation to support Weekend Reads, and our daily work? Thanks [... want %more?] → https://retractionwatch.com/2022/10/08/weekend-reads-whistleblowers-win-a-victory-a-look-at-covid-19-retractions-journals-as-sewage-treatment-plants/14:13
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: FDA Approves Whooping Cough Vaccine: The vaccine is meant to be administered during the third trimester of pregnancy to the expecting mother to prevent this respiratory disease in infants younger than 2 months of age. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/fda-approves-whooping-cough-vaccine14:22
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: (translated) Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Boost with updated COVID-19 mRNA vaccinesEmerging evidence shows that boosting with updated mRNA vaccines targeting SARS-CoV-2 variants stimulates better neutralizing antibody responses than homologous boosters. pic.twitter.com/Vcc5tAv3FF → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/157873267836679372915:09
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Assessing the consequences of prolonged usage of disposable face masks → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/xysqfe/assessing_the_consequences_of_prolonged_usage_of/15:28
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Other SARS-CoV-2 proteins are important for disease severity, aside from the spike → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/xyszbb/other_sarscov2_proteins_are_important_for_disease/15:38
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: (translated) Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Booster vaccination is in full swing: the next wave has also started.Another reminder: we're not there yet.Protect yourself and society. That's not one or the other; if you get infected your mask, distance or ventilation won't do anything, your [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/157874328013282099315:47
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The start of Singapore's XBB variant waveNotable how this variant left BA.2.3.20 in the dust, a variant with substantial growth advantage over BA.5; variant graph by @JosetteSchoenma XBB and BQ.1.1 are 2 of the most important variants on watch right now pic.twitter.com/AvttFliZvP → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/157875977314660761716:53
BrainstormUpdates for Singapore: +6198 cases since 23 hours ago17:00
BrainstormNew from Il Sole 24 Ore: (translated) Covid, towards the revision of the quarantine but there is a conflict over the name of the minister: The turning point on the strategy to manage the pandemic will depend a lot on the choice of the new Minister of Health who will have to [... want %more?] → https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/covid-la-revisione-quarantena-ma-e-scontro-nome-ministro-AE4J2Z6B17:03
BrainstormNew from WebMD: CDC to Switch From Daily to Weekly COVID Data Updates: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says it will start updating COVID-19 case and death counts on a weekly instead of a daily basis starting Oct. 20. → https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20221008/cdc-to-switch-from-daily-to-weekly-covid-data-updates17:22
LjL-MatrixThem too ...17:25
BrainstormUpdates for Chile: +3738 cases, +16 deaths, +32681 tests since a day ago — Italy: +43716 cases, +60 deaths, +215035 tests since 23 hours ago18:08
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: LIVE NOW: Global Covid Summit–Kentucky | 07OCT22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/xywbl7/live_now_global_covid_summitkentucky_07oct22/18:10
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michelle Monje (@michelle_monje): Glad to share this Perspective written with @VirusesImmunity, where we review what is understood about how COVID can affect the brain, discuss the possible neurobiological underpinnings & propose the main mechanisms that may contribute to COVID brain [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michelle_monje/status/157877854546304204919:26
de-factohey LjL-Matrix how is your arm?20:16
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: The Neurobiology of Long COVID → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/xyz9rs/the_neurobiology_of_long_covid/20:23
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The beginning of the BA.2.75.2 variant led wave in Austria, with highest test positivity yet, variant graph by @TWenseleers Different new variants are getting established in various countries, and may feature multiple facilitating spread in any given place pic.twitter.com/nCS7WzYiwH → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/157881689254622412820:42
Timvdede-facto (or someone else): do you happen to know why Pfizer/Moderna didn't make a vaccine covering both BA.1, BA.4 and BA.5?21:11
TimvdeAnd while they were at it, also delta maybe, because who knows what descendant may suddenly pop up21:11
TimvdeJust like, all known strains that have wrecked havoc in the past :P21:12
TimvdeWould it work less good for some reason then? Would it be considerably more expensive?21:12
TimvdeOr just BA.1 + BA.5 instead of Wuhan + either of them, if the number of different strains in the vaccine would be considered an issue21:13
de-factovery good question Timvde i also think it could make sense to induce a broad spectrum of immunity including all those variants that proved themselves to be able to spread to an extend that they were able to deserve a WHO declaration for being a variant of problematic concern21:18
de-factobut since most prevalent circumstances for natural selection of future virulent variants are also a function of time it means that variants from the past may not have the same success in the future again or that the antigenic drift has to find a new direction for evading the developing type of immunity21:20
de-factotherefore including the more recent variants may have more immunologic relevance than potentially those variants that already became extinct in the past, yet there also is the possibility that some of the mutations that gave the variants in the past their replication advantage may re-occur in future variants by convergent evolution (those mutations still being advantageous under given circumstances)21:22
de-factotherefore i would agree to include most variants of the past, with emphasis on the more recent (prevalent) ones though21:22
de-factoin addition to that i would argue if it would be possible to predict (independent) convergent evolution of future immuno-evasive variants their (artificially predicted and created) S-protein signature should also be included in a multi-valent vaccine21:26
de-factothis could at least in principle open the possibility to be one step ahead of antigenic drift, yet by introducing that new type of immunity a new type of selection pressure also would be introduced21:27
de-factomaybe the new direction of selection pressure by that artificial s-protein could be observed in an animal model and multiple potential escape vectors could get blocked by introducing the corresponding s-protein signatures in a multivalent vaccine?21:29
de-factonot sure to which extend it could be possible to force the antigenic drift to stabilize and "trap" in a corner as it would depend on its freedom of movement under the condition of necessity for being able to still reproduce the virions21:31
de-factoif every exposure to an antigen would induce a type of immunity that creates a maximum at that antigenic location, hence have a falling neutralization gradient for any deviation from that exact antigenic type, it would naturally repel that exact antigen or motivate antigenic drift away from this exact variant21:33
de-factoso maybe if there was an "edge" in the antigenic landscape introduced by the condition that a drift into a certain direction would render the pathogen replication-deficient this could provide "one side" of a trap for the pathogen21:35
de-factoif then by multivalent vaccination (possibly stabilized by original antigenic sin) the other directions for escape from that edge could be blocked by introducing a rising neutralization gradient in all other possible antigenic drift (mutation) directions21:36
de-factobut that is wild speculation, i am not sure if such a thing could be possible21:36
de-factoit would be neat to "trap" the pathogen in a somewhat stable (local) neutralization minimum from where it could not escape easily anymore (by mutations)21:38
de-factowhat do you think Timvde ?21:38
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tom Wenseleers (@TWenseleers): @EricTopol @EllingUlrich @EllingUlrich had notified me about targeted sequencing of pre-selected BA.2.75* samples in Austria - sorry hadn't mentioned that in my original post, but I did here twitter.com/TWenseleers/st… → https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/157883006120080588821:40
TimvdeSorry, was busy somewhere else, that's a whole lot of text, let me read for a bit :D21:40
Timvdede-facto: that doesn't really answer why Wuhan is still included in the current vaccines. Would it be to trigger a more wide response, because it's the furthest away from the current mutations?21:43
de-factoyes afaik that was the idea21:44
TimvdeAnd we aren't putting more variants in because... the cost?21:45
de-factoi am not sure about that one21:46
de-factoe.g. i dont see a reason that all the mutations that enabled the pathogenicity of e.g. Delta could be excluded in hosts with an immune system that never has seen those exact mutations. Some of the mutations may have become disfunctional due to their dependence on another location in the SARS-CoV-2 genome that may have mutated away in Omicron descendants21:48
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66): Finally, if you recently (~3 months) had SARS-CoV-2 (in most places, likely BA.5), you likely still are still benefiting from the immunity from infection & so most advice is to wait a bit to get boosted! → https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/157883892409263718422:08
TimvdeGee, thanks :P22:09
Asakoand per fauci and colbert don't wear any masks22:20
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66): For people in #Switzerland #Schweiz , you can find out more about how to make an appointment for a #SARSCoV2 booster (and your eligibility after infection or your most recent booster) here!: covid19.impf-check.ch → https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/157884159999990579422:27
TimvdeBasically nobody is wearing a mask here anymore22:38
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Richard H. Ebright (@R_H_Ebright): "China began severely restricting the export of personal protective equipment (PPE), such as gowns and masks, months before notifying..world of..outbreak of Covid-19, it has emerged. PPE exports to the US fell by..50% between August and September of [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/R_H_Ebright/status/157885131286677504023:04
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +933 cases, +6 deaths since a day ago23:07
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Richard H. Ebright (@R_H_Ebright): "The restricting of PPE exports came around the same time that the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) removed a database of bat virus gene sequences, which has never been restored." → https://twitter.com/R_H_Ebright/status/157885131926719692823:14

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