libera/##covid-19/ Friday, 2020-10-23

Brainstorm	New from Scientific American: Coronavirus Drug Remdesivir Shortens Recovery but Is Not a Magic Bullet: Medical staff push a patient on a gurney to a waiting medical helicopter at the Emile Muller hospital in Mulhouse, eastern France, to be evacuated on another hospital on March 17, 2020, amid the outbreak of the new Coronavirus, COVID-19. → https://is.gd/EMyuse	00:05
SphericalCow	wait until you find out how many more useless drugs get approved	00:05
de-facto	I still think it would be extremely useful information	00:06
de-facto	and i would participate if called in for a test	00:07
de-facto	i would wear an FFP3 though all the time	00:07
de-facto	and why not do it like other countries, e.g. Austria having testers collect the gargling samples at their homes	00:10
de-facto	i think this is a very good concept	00:10
bolovanos_	Ad WHO - in what phase of the disease has been Remdesivir given to patients (initial replication, or when immune system started battle...)? I think main problem with Remdesivir is that it is usually given to late - after replication phase - moment when immune system kicks in, the efficacy decreases. This is already known thing. At least for general public since it R. has been approved by FDA.	00:15
bolovanos_	Thoughts on that by Lisa Gralinsky: "I think almost everyone whose getting Remdesivir is probably getting it late." and following sight from Prof. Racaniello... on TWiV https://youtu.be/8vV3TWtLXnQ?t=3183	00:16
de-facto	yep antivirals are of the more use the earlier they are given preferably in the exponential replication phase right at the begin	00:16
bolovanos_	This problem was mentioned Mr. Cihlar from Gilead... months ago, and usage of this antiviral probably misused.	00:17
de-facto	so must be safe (low side effects), cheap and their production massively scalable if given as preventive measure long before any sign for severe progression to every case in risk group caregory	00:18
bolovanos_	Right now - at my country - we are lucky when getting paid test even when having obvious symptoms. Only some - like politics, get right time treatment.	00:18
de-facto	if thery have severe side effects, are super expensive or rare they wont be used very early on large base	00:18
de-facto	btw i think it was invented by a Czech scientist	00:19
bolovanos_	I am not so impressed, that 74 o so old Trum got on legs so fast -	00:19
de-facto	Remdesivir that is	00:19
bolovanos_	which is not something usual pers will get	00:19
bolovanos_	pers = person - gen. public	00:20
bolovanos_	something which is falsely encouraging for genereal public - especially that part denying pandemic - hence they can falsely feel safe	00:23
bolovanos_	de-facto, yes he os lead at that project	00:24
bolovanos_	mainly Gilead was cooperating with Mr. Holy who was designing antiviral molecules in Czechoslovakia far before 1989	00:24
Mimin_Z[m]	what	00:25
bolovanos_	and the one Mr. Cihlar - the one related to Remdesvir - was somehow related to Mr. Holys lab	00:26
bolovanos_	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anton%C3%ADn_Hol%C3%BD	00:26
de-facto	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom%C3%A1%C5%A1_Cihl%C3%A1%C5%99	00:28
bolovanos_	de-facto, ad safe, cheap, scalable - yes - and Remdesivir with what I have seen in some articles for 25 000$ / treatment - for country like Czech rep. that is bunch of money	00:31
bolovanos_	adding fact that you need to get it intravenously ...	00:31
de-facto	and i think it also may have some side effects "faking" adenosine then jamming the replication mechanism	00:32
de-facto	and i hear its extremely difficult to manufacture chemically	00:35
de-facto	so probably wont be scaled up or available as cheap as for example Dexamethasone that really does prevent fatalities at the late stages by targeting the berserk immune reaction	00:36
Brainstorm	New from ProPublica: Una guía para la votación en persona vs. la votación por correo: por Cynthia Gordy Giwa Read in English . ProPublica es un medio independiente y sin ánimo de lucro que produce periodismo de investigación en pro del interés público. Suscríbete para recibir sus historias en español por correo electrónico. La Guía del [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/8eKHRp	00:38
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +6172 cases (now 8.7 million), +56 deaths (now 228269) since an hour ago — Canada: +701 cases (now 209148) since an hour ago	00:39
bolovanos_	For Remdesivir application in right time - I think you would need to detect people threatened with cytokine storm beforehand	00:40
de-facto	yes i think there has been some big data mining ai approach by Yale university to crunch through all available clinical data for covid patients to predict progression trajectories and afaik they were able to identify some early markers for the severe cluster	00:42
bolovanos_	which anyway would be 11bilion US $	00:42
de-facto	yet i am not sure about the moment in disease progression for those markers and if they would be seen early enough to begin with Remdesivir or if they only would show after the initial exponential viral replication phase	00:43
bolovanos_	taking those 4 % with bad, live threatening symptoms, to account	00:43
bolovanos_	not counting reinfections...	00:43
bolovanos_	de-facto, that is another question, if it is even possible create such marker, and if yes will it has to be fast and cheaper than drug it self	00:45
bolovanos_	will it have...	00:46
de-facto	%title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2588-y	00:47
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.nature.com: Longitudinal analyses reveal immunological misfiring in severe COVID-19 \| Nature	00:47
de-facto	also there seem to be some genetic factors involved so maybe the group with highest risk for severe progressions could be separated early and sharply enough to only give them antiviral drugs very early in the infection stage	00:49
bolovanos_	but who knows - maybe there is some underlying knowledge in large numbers which data scientist will find	00:49
de-facto	yeah exactly	00:50
de-facto	basically it would be screening for potentially useful datapoints and feed it to a neuronal network to discover hidden correlations with later clusters in progressions	00:51
de-facto	even beyond clinical data, everything that is available or can be tested	00:52
ryouma	perhaps good cytokine testing could be ramped up and run on disease populations (anything inflammatory e.g.) and then correlated with outcomes there. i personally have had cytokine testing because i participated in a study, and my numbers are REALLY high. so i wish that could be believed by doctors if relevant.	00:52
ryouma	then, if it is true that r. works better early, and works better on those who already have high numbers (inb4 i know cytokines can be evanescent in principle) then that drug can be optimized to the point hta thtose who get it will have decent probailibyt of it working.	00:54
de-facto	i still think it has something to do with signal to noise ratio of the immune response: if it is very targeted and prompt it can get the initial exponential replication under control very early without freaking out about high viral load numbers, but if the immune response is very noise and not targeted it wont contain the viral replication so efficiently while doing a lot of collateral damage as unwanted side effect, at some point it may	00:55
de-facto	go off in a cytokine storm	00:55
de-facto	*noisy and not targeted	00:56
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Effectiveness of Face Masks in Preventing Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (81 votes) \| https://msphere.asm.org/content/5/5/e00637-20 \| https://redd.it/jg60sx	00:57
LjL	de-facto, if we did things like other countries then our motorway bridges wouldn't collapse, what fun would that be	00:57
de-facto	may depend on the perspective quite strongly	00:58
ryouma	much of this is overshadowed by who gets to get what because of health care system and various social factors	00:59
de-facto	of course the treatment Trump received is not affordable for the broad public hence his comment about "problem solved" quite cynical for those in need for such treatment or even having lost a relative	01:03
ryouma	https://local.theonion.com/doctor-informs-patient-weird-lump-on-neck-nothing-he-ca-1845416103	01:04
de-facto	the question is can it be made scale-able and affordable? I am still wondering about the main challenge in scaling up monoclonal antibody production to massive production	01:04
bolovanos_	de-facto, and others - at least some in Czech, I am certain they know the will get it in time, How about Bo Jo	01:04
bolovanos_	ryouma, but that shadow can be cleared with large number of cases	01:04
ryouma	?	01:05
bolovanos_	for example to this day we have hade 204 k cases in Europe	01:05
ryouma	large number of cases -> triage rules de facto at the mass atrocity level	01:05
ryouma	(as if they aren't arguably already)	01:06
LjL	de-facto, do you think Trump's treatment is what cured him so quickly? it is quite perplexing, someone on dexamethasone recovering so quickly	01:06
bolovanos_	to some extent I guess yes the have it now	01:06
bolovanos_	to what precision lvl - do not know	01:06
ryouma	note that new, possibly unreviewed, crisis triage rules ARE being implemented	01:07
de-facto	LjL, actually i am quite curious about that antibody cocktail impact	01:07
de-facto	hopefully we will see such therapies made affordable to larger groups soon (yet i am not sure if production can be scaled)	01:07
de-facto	only by then we will know the real impact from that	01:08
ryouma	if you're old and sick, you are left to die, and this is considered good, when the root causes of hte problem are elsewhere and fixing those are what would be good instead	01:08
bolovanos_	possibly unreviewed - scary	01:08
LjL	de-facto, well my sister takes a monoclonal antibody that isn't so new and fancy, for atopic dermatitis, and it is NOT cheap despite already having being in mass production for a while i think	01:09
LjL	very far from cheap	01:09
ryouma	does anybody else feel like we don't hear much from asia? we hear occasionally a little, is all	01:09
de-facto	i mean numbers from their press release did not look that great, yet then if they tested it with PCR how to determine if the virions contributing to a viral titer actually had infectious capability still	01:09
ryouma	i known rituximab is like 60k/year	01:10
de-facto	yeah it not being made cheap (on purpose?) and there being technical limits to scaling production to actually make it cheap may be two separate things (i am not sure though)	01:11
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: Breaking News: Blood plasma showed no benefit in Covid-19 patients in trial — a finding that could re-energize debate → https://is.gd/VuMy0b	01:11
de-facto	maybe its really not possible, maybe profit margin would block it for lower demand antibodies, but for COVID there would be a HUGE demand right now	01:12
ryouma	rituximab in particular i think is already or soon to be off patent but still an issue even with the generic last i heard	01:12
de-facto	also maybe there will be alternatives such as those nanobodies, those may be easier to scale production because of smaller molecules	01:13
ryouma	perhaps it's those indian generics mfrs that need to compete or have international competition	01:13
de-facto	not sure if anything is known yet about their safety or usability in human body	01:14
de-facto	probably quite a lot of patents in that field of antibody production	01:14
de-facto	yet how about just ignoring those in the crisis of a pandemic?	01:15
de-facto	who would blame a manufacturer helping safe lives by preaching some ugly patent law?	01:15
de-facto	i think some governments even have clauses in the law allowing for that	01:15
LjL	ryouma, my sister doesn't pay for her antibodies because healthcare covers it, but it's €1000 a shot, and she has one a month	01:23
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: Covid: Sewage sites to test for traces of virus: The aim is to create an early warning system to detect local outbreaks before they spread. → https://is.gd/P4wWFf	01:23
LjL	one could say our healthcare has contradictory aspects when it passes a €1000 shot to someone for atopic dermatitis (as disabling as it can be when it doesn't let you sleep) but then we can't have enough nurses to keep ICU rooms running	01:23
hiplobonoxa	hi everyone,	01:43
de-facto	LjL, your sister might be a profitable longterm customer but how about icu specialized nurses once the demand for those beds declines after the pandemic (or before)?	01:48
LjL	de-facto, what's profitable? i'm talking about public healthcare	01:49
LjL	it's only profitable from taxes... and bribes	01:49
de-facto	maybe all nurses should learn how to operate those and get rotated into icu bed usage so in case the capacity can be scaled up dynamically on the cost of normal beds that may be free-able more easily (e.g. postponing non essential prodecures to later time or such)	01:50
LjL	de-facto, anyway i said nurses but our problem right now is that we have obtained many more ICU beds and equipment than we have managed to obtain people to operate (doctors, nurses, everybody)	01:50
LjL	so they're sitting unused, and not just because the curve hasn't required them yet	01:51
de-facto	or for normal beds additional nurses also could be aquired more easily because they wont need to learn all the special skills for operating ICU beds	01:51
de-facto	yeah i think its the same problem in many countries	01:51
LjL	for years we have limited the amount of people who could apply to medicine classes at university	01:52
LjL	for... some reason	01:52
LjL	now we pay the price	01:52
de-facto	but yeah such things would have to be implemented in advance now its too late for that	01:52
de-facto	yeah	01:52
hiplobonoxa	i made an animated chart earlier today and told that you may appreciate it: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4101652/	01:52
hiplobonoxa	*was told	01:53
LjL	hi hiplobonoxa, i don't know if that's intentional but it's not smooth, it "snaps" to days	01:54
LjL	(at least for me on Firefox)	01:55
de-facto	quite nice, but yeah time seems to snap on daily date changes	01:55
hiplobonoxa	it's just a side effect of the animation.	01:55
hiplobonoxa	the end is very exciting.	01:56
hiplobonoxa	where large numbers of states move above 0 and moving to the right. it's a real cliffhanger!	01:57
de-facto	also when moving the slider the points seem to react with quite some delay for some reason	01:57
hiplobonoxa	it's the way that the flourish graphs visualize the information.	01:59
de-facto	but its a very interesting way to look at incidence	01:59
hiplobonoxa	the point is the cloud.	01:59
hiplobonoxa	i've been trying to figure out how to make it more smooth and responsive.	02:00
de-facto	hmm cant you set the delay to 0 or such and have it only interpolate with constant speed between two dates	02:00
de-facto	usually there is some animation property such as ease-in ease-out or such	02:01
de-facto	transition-timing-function	02:01
de-facto	i think something like that may be possible with https://plotly.com/javascript/	02:05
hiplobonoxa	it only give me time between points and an animation duration.	02:11
hiplobonoxa	i am making so many typos. sorry.	02:11
de-facto	https://plotly.com/javascript/gapminder-example/	02:17
de-facto	there should be "easing" property but i could not get it to work linear yet https://plotly.com/javascript/reference/	02:18
ryouma	in this us this is due to the physician lobby. attorney lobby does th same for law school. one of my own universities literally claimed that it was doing so because there was a, and i quote, "glut" of doctors. --- 16:52 <LjL> for years we have limited the amount of people who could apply to medicine classes at university	02:24
LjL	lol, taxi driver lobby does it here	02:25
LjL	taxi licenses are incredibly expensive and they are basically inherited	02:25
ryouma	same in nyc	02:27
ryouma	that is, for a while they amusingly reported whether ny stock exchange seats or taxi medallions are larger	02:28
LjL	...	02:29
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: U.S. Food and Drug Administration Approves Gilead’s Antiviral Veklury® (remdesivir) for Treatment of COVID-19 (84 votes) \| https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/10/us-food-and-drug-administration-approves-gileads-antiviral-veklury-remdesivir-for-treatment-of-covid19 \| https://redd.it/jg7ubm	02:29
ryouma	i read an article that gave the history of medical degrees. the doctor lobby thing started bigtime in the 1800s, and apparently many schools got shut down. some were historically black. the remaining ones were something like d.o. and m.d. idk about n.d. d.c. etc.	02:30
ryouma	this is the us	02:30
ryouma	""At this rate, it will soon cost more to drive a cab," said one hedge fund manager, referring to the approximately $300,000 price of a New York City taxi medallion."	02:33
LjL	that's a comparable price to the ones i've heard for milan	02:33
LjL	maybe more like 100k here, but comparable	02:33
ryouma	the peak was higher	02:34
ryouma	indulge my brain not working right now but what is the purpose of y axis being growth rate and x being cases?	02:41
ryouma	also, maybe it is my monitor, but n.b. afaik the us has settled on blue and red	02:41
hiplobonoxa	is that a question for me?	02:43
ryouma	i think it would be great if everybody learned more medicine. particularly what needs a doctor and what does not and what to do and first aid and so on.	02:43
ryouma	yes	02:43
ryouma	by everybody i mean every citizen	02:43
hiplobonoxa	well, new cases and growth rate are probably two of the most important metrics for determining the level of control.	02:44
hiplobonoxa	a high number of active cases with a low growth rate can produce as many new cases as a high growth rate on a low number of active cases.	02:45
LjL	ryouma, surely there are bound to be (many) cases where "does this need a doctor" is a question only a doctor can meaningfully answer	02:45
hiplobonoxa	so, keeping both of those values low is ideal.	02:45
ryouma	yes, only a doctor can answer. but in the us you end up with some going to the hospital for trivial things and others NEVER going.	02:46
ryouma	in some cases*	02:46
ryouma	but you teach that too	02:46
ryouma	what i want to see is estimated proportion of contagious cases	02:46
ryouma	hiplobonoxa: so if you see something that is not on the lower left to upper right line, then what does it mean?	02:47
hiplobonoxa	i don't think anyone can see that.	02:47
ryouma	did you see the one with bars?	02:47
Brainstorm	New from Virology.ws: An explanation for the low quality antibodies produced during serious SARS-CoV-2 infection: Although we are less than a year into the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, it appears that the antibodies induced by infection are often of poor quality, and B cell memory seems limited. An explanation for this outcome might be a consequence of the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/oazCCC	03:26
Brainstorm	Updates for France: +11069 cases (now 1.0 million) since 7 hours ago — US: +9863 cases (now 8.7 million), +112 deaths (now 228381) since 3 hours ago — Netherlands: +729 cases (now 263134), +19 deaths (now 6938) since 13 hours ago	03:52
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: ‘It’s going away’: With time running out, Trump again forced to defend Covid approach at debate → https://is.gd/eJb8IT	04:11
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Aspirin Use is Associated with Decreased Mechanical Ventilation, ICU Admission, and In-Hospital Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 (83 votes) \| https://pdfs.journals.lww.com/anesthesia-analgesia/9000/00000/aspirin_use_is_associated_with_decreased.95423.pdf \| https://redd.it/jg9ylp	04:11
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: As Trump misleadingly boasts of ‘rounding the turn’ on Covid-19, Biden warns of ‘dark winter’: On a day the U.S. reported more than 72,000 new Covid-19 cases and 1,000 new deaths, President Trump insisted the U.S. was “rounding the turn” on Covid-19. Joe Biden warned… → https://is.gd/kL9GIQ	04:22
Brainstorm	Updates for Belgium: +16746 cases (now 270132), +49 deaths (now 10588) since 23 hours ago	04:22
LjL	%cases belgium	04:24
Brainstorm	LjL: In Belgium, there have been 270132 confirmed cases (2.3% of the population) and 10588 deaths (3.9% of cases) as of 5 minutes ago. 4.3 million tests were performed (6.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Belgium for time series data.	04:24
LjL	is belgium in full lockdown	04:27
LjL	and if not why the hell not	04:27
Brainstorm	New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add NEJM study that contradicts WHO data on Remdesivir, and Pipeline … → https://is.gd/IIysm3	04:45
semitones	I got allergies and thought I had covid	04:58
semitones	i suppose I could have both;	04:59
LjL	semitones, can you smell	04:59
semitones	Yes, but whenever I have a cold, I can't smell	04:59
semitones	because of the congestion	04:59
semitones	allergies are the same way for me	04:59
LjL	eh it's usually a bit different from the loss of smell you get with this	05:00
semitones	then yes, nothing unusual yet	05:00
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vaccine advisers urge FDA to encourage diversity in Covid-19 vaccine trials → https://is.gd/SY08zk	05:07
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: France reports 41,622 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record. (10173 votes) \| https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1319333450873294848?s=21 \| https://redd.it/jg4hhl	05:17
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: IMF concerned over post-COVID social unrest across Latin America → https://is.gd/4aCabS	05:18
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israeli journalists attacked while covering COVID-19 haredi communities → https://is.gd/W9NnKx	05:29
Brainstorm	New from EurekAlert!: COVID-19 lockdown reduced mental health, sleep, exercise: A first-of-its-kind global survey shows the initial phase of the COVID-19 lockdown dramatically altered our personal habits, largely for the worse. → https://is.gd/xELRvN	06:25
jerlem	But what is the alternative?	06:26
ryouma	think of the bright side: it saved lives	06:27
jerlem	My point	06:27
jerlem	I guess we have to adjust instead of resisting	06:28
jerlem	At least for the time being	06:29
jerlem	Until vaccines are distributed	06:29
ryouma	is covid anosmia / dysgeusia ever long term? or does it go away when the main "generally recognized as covid per se" symptoms do?	06:30
jerlem	can persist long term in some cases	06:31
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: US Presidential Debate 2020 Highlights: Biden says Trump has no Covid-19 plan; Trump hits back over his son’s Ukraine business dealings → https://is.gd/N8WGWj	06:59
Brainstorm	Updates for New Zealand: +9 cases (now 1923) since a day ago	07:08
tinwhiskers	Another case of community spread in New Zealand. I wonder if we'll be able to pull off eliminating community spread a third time...	07:13
tinwhiskers	Seven of the imported cases involve fishing crew in Christchurch who tested positive on day six testing, while the other person travelled from Iran. The one new community case is a close household contact of one of the cases from the marine employee cluster.	07:16
ryouma	did you move?	07:20
tinwhiskers	I'm from New Zealand but living in Tonga. I'm heading back to New Zealand mid-January, so hopefully they'll keep on top of it.	07:21
tinwhiskers	I woul dhave been back already except that covid kinda put our plans on hold while we watched to see how things went.	07:22
Brainstorm	Updates for France: +10405 cases (now 1.0 million), +14 deaths (now 34224) since 3 hours ago — Lombardy, Italy: +4125 cases (now 138729), +29 deaths (now 17152) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +2327 cases (now 265461), +12 deaths (now 6950) since 3 hours ago — United Kingdom: +1492 cases (now 811959) since 13 hours ago	07:23
ryouma	it would seem that tonga can in principle control it better. you have one or more airports, and ports don't matter. right?	07:26
gigasu_shida	hi tinwhiskers how r u	07:28
tinwhiskers	ryouma: maybe. If Tonga gets a case (which it has avoided so far by pure luck) it will go to all hell. I don't think there is any hope they could contain it.	07:29
tinwhiskers	gigasu_shida: hi. I'm well thanks. Yourself?	07:29
gigasu_shida	i'm good	07:30
tinwhiskers	ryouma: I think it's just a matter of time (possibly quite a long time) until it arrives here, possibly through frozen goods. We get HUGE amounts of frozen chicekn from Brazil.	07:30
tinwhiskers	the frozen goods thing is insignificant in most places since it's very minor component compared to community spread that is already going on, but for a place with no cases you only need it to happen once to be highly significant.	07:31
ryouma	poor food prep, insufficient cooking, like that?	07:33
tinwhiskers	contamination of the boxes I believe. The dock workers get it offloading goods.	07:34
tinwhiskers	or it may be the people at the next phase, breaking down the pallets of boxes.	07:35
tinwhiskers	that's how it's believed the last community case in NZ started, and it seems likely the same could happen here given time, although it's a lot smaller than NZ.	07:36
tinwhiskers	sequencing showed the dock workers who became infected had a strain that was not previously detected in NZ so it's assumed to have come in on the frozen goods.	07:37
tinwhiskers	Freezing can keep the virus viable for much longer periods of time.	07:38
ryouma	what about uvc?	07:38
tinwhiskers	that could work but I don't thin it's done and not something Tonga could possibly hope to do. It's really very third-world here.	07:39
tinwhiskers	given the relatively low population and total number of imports Tonga might get lucky and not have any come in that way, but if it does, things will get very bad here.	07:40
ryouma	nobody is sheltering there i assume	07:42
tinwhiskers	well, no. Life is normal here with no cases.	07:43
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: How Japan's mask culture may have saved lives during coronavirus → https://is.gd/84YCCQ	07:43
tinwhiskers	well, except for lack of tourists and all the negative consequences that comes with that.	07:43
tinwhiskers	also, no remittances from seasonal workers going overseas, which was a large part of the income for the country.	07:44
tinwhiskers	so people are struggling, but no, no sheltering in place.	07:44
tinwhiskers	most of the tourist businesses have shut down now. There's a few doing other things that will come back to life when the tourists return but it'll take quite a while to start getting the usual amount of tourist dollars again.	07:46
tinwhiskers	primarily, it's well known that you have to be 3/4 crazy to run a business in Tonga so finding enough gullible fools to start tourist businesses takes a while :-/	07:47
ryouma	they have to do something	07:49
ryouma	i am concerned about the olympics in japan. are they still doing it? that could be a disaster.	07:50
tinwhiskers	it takes money to start a business like that, and the locals don't have it. You need to get foreigners to invest.	07:50
ryouma	huh	07:51
tinwhiskers	the locals can get by pretty well as subsistence farmers (that's how most live) but the country remains much poorer without the tourism spending	07:51
ryouma	well the tourist dollars have to go someplace for that to be useful. so where does it go that gets to the subsistence farmers?	07:51
ryouma	or youa re saying the non-subsistence-farmers are affected only?	07:52
tinwhiskers	tourists spend money in the markets, taxis, etc., and that all goes to extended families. Plus you have more taxation, etc going into government coffers, which allows them to fund more stuff.	07:53
ryouma	starting a market stall is not what you are talking about requireing foreign capital though right? you are talkinga bout those windsurfers and hotels and such?	07:53
tinwhiskers	about 30% of GDP is from tourism	07:54
tinwhiskers	sure, you don't need foreign investment for market stalls, but wiothout tourism ventures the tourists don't come.	07:54
tinwhiskers	at least, not many.	07:55
tinwhiskers	right. whale watching, diving, game fishing, hotels, restaurants, etc.	07:55
rmonten[m]	LjL: Belgium is locking down, but apparently more slowly than the virus is spreading. Maybe it's because the new government (well, finally an actual government) doesn't want to make itself unpopular, maybe it's because they don't have first-hand experience with exponential curves yet. Hospitals have been sending warning signs for weeks. They're now going to delay certain non-emergency non-covid related operations. In a	08:03
rmonten[m]	couple of weeks they might be full. Everything you'd wanted to avoid. Public support finally seems to be tipping over from "meh" to panic, though.	08:03
tinwhiskers	the tourism ventures may be funded by foreign investors but they still employ locals, and that money goes to their family. Those that work in tourist-related jobs like taxi driving have gone back to farming but will come back to taxi driving when the tourists return (which requires the foreign investors), so yeah, the locals who are now reverting to subsistence farming do directly see the tourist dollars brought in by foreign investment.	08:04
tinwhiskers	rmonten[m]: yipes. The story pretty much Europe-wide is starting to look pretty dire.	08:08
tinwhiskers	Someone is going to have to do a real lockdown to lead the way.	08:08
ryouma	why is africa so relatively ok? they have huge cities.	08:10
tinwhiskers	I figured it was bad testing/reporting for a long time but no longer believe that. I have no idea.	08:12
ryouma	well that would make sense	08:13
ryouma	but you'd see variation	08:13
tinwhiskers	there was suggestion of the BCG vaccination possibly having an impact.	08:14
tinwhiskers	not sure it stacks up either though	08:14
tinwhiskers	like, Canada (I think) also has similar BCG vax rates and isn't seeing the safe effect.	08:14
tinwhiskers	*same effect	08:15
ryouma	wouldn't that be good	08:15
ryouma	why don't they raise chickens in tonga?	08:16
tinwhiskers	they don't do anything here :-)	08:17
ryouma	also, is tonga equatorial? and are equatorial temps rising?	08:17
ryouma	and is sea rising?	08:17
tinwhiskers	there's so many business opportunities going begging but we're on island time. Zero innovation or will.	08:17
tinwhiskers	ocean rise isn't a major issue for most of the islands here. They are mostly volcanic except in the ha'aapi group, which are sandy atolls.	08:18
ryouma	sandy atolls are not volcanic?	08:18
ryouma	and when you say volcanic you mean there is high ground so it isn't an issue?	08:19
tinwhiskers	well, long-since sunk volcanoes with only coral reefs to trap sand now.	08:19
tinwhiskers	fair point	08:19
ryouma	not a point just questions	08:20
tinwhiskers	Most of the islands are well above sea level, except there	08:20
ryouma	but don't you lose land anyway?	08:20
ryouma	but ok	08:20
tinwhiskers	I'm lagging very badly... internet is sulking here today	08:20
rmonten[m]	tinwhiskers: yeah seems like it, going the wrong direction everywhere in Europe	08:20
tinwhiskers	the volcanic islands are like super strong concrete and tend to go straight up out of the water so generally a 1m rise would have no impact except on a few beaches.	08:21
tinwhiskers	sea level rise is not going to affect Tonga much, except Ha'aapi for quite some time.	08:22
ryouma	do they live on the slopes?	08:23
tinwhiskers	the islands tend to be pretty flat on top but generally rise very steeply about 2-3 m out of the water, except for a few places where reefs and beaches have built up. Most of the islands don't really have much slope to them.	08:25
tinwhiskers	I mean, once sea levels rise by 3 m we're in trouble here, except for the mainland.	08:25
tinwhiskers	but it won't have a creeping encroachment like many other places. It'll be ok, then fairly suddenly not ok.	08:26
tinwhiskers	actually, more than 2-3 m. more like 5-6 meters. It's very hard to land on some islands as they are sheer cliffs.	08:27
tinwhiskers	There's an island in front of my place, about 300m away that I've never set foot on because there's nowhere to actually get onto it.	08:28
ryouma	but don't tourists like beaches?	08:28
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Police arrest demonstrators at Melbourne protest against coronavirus lockdown restrictions → https://is.gd/Q2z39I	08:28
ryouma	that's really interesting thoguh about the steepness	08:28
tinwhiskers	there's some beaches, (particularly in Ha'aapi, as I mentioned) and some islands capture beaches on their reefs around the cliffs. Overall most of Tonga is not particularly beachy.	08:29
tinwhiskers	I happen to have three beaches though so I'm pretty lucky :-)	08:30
tinwhiskers	there's quite a variety of islands, and some are at risk to be fair. You can see a bit of the variety on my blog at http://tapanaisland.blogspot.com/ (shameless plug).	08:36
Brainstorm	Updates for Canada: +1059 cases (now 210207), +27 deaths (now 9889) since 8 hours ago — US: +71 cases (now 8.7 million) since 5 hours ago	09:24
rmonten[m]	Belgian government announcement. They've identified 4 priorities: economy, education, health care & public mental health. In order to safeguard these, they're announcing additional restrictions to: sports, cultural events, extracurricular activities & higher education.	09:27
rmonten[m]	(very brief summary but I don't have LJL's perseverance to translate the whole speech)	09:28
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Convalescent plasma of limited use for COVID-19: study: Plasma taken from the blood of people who have recovered from COVID-19 and given to people sick with the disease does not reduce their chances of getting seriously ill or dying, new research has found. → https://is.gd/QBsOr2	09:36
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Scientists develop new way to test for COVID-19 antibodies: When Dr. Stephen Smith of Seattle Children's Research Institute came down with muscle aches, gastrointestinal distress and a sudden loss of smell in late February, he suspected he had COVID-19. The testing criteria had yet to be expanded to include individuals with [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xKIF13	09:47
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Vaccination: 'Foreign disinformation' social media campaigns linked to falling vaccination rates → https://is.gd/rmMSwF	09:58
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Study provides estimates of the effect of introducing and lifting physical distancing measures on COVID-19 R number: Analysis suggests that individual measures (including school closure, workplace closure, public events ban, ban on gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits) [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Ly3AJn	10:21
darsie	%more	10:28
Brainstorm	darsie, [...] are associated with a reduction in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 but combined measures are more effective at reducing transmission, according to a modelling study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal. → https://paste.ee/p/FLlMo	10:28
professional	Hi	10:31
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 lockdown reduced mental health, sleep, exercise: A first-of-its-kind global survey shows the initial phase of the COVID-19 lockdown dramatically altered our personal habits, largely for the worse. → https://is.gd/xGjBvp	10:32
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: What you need to know about Nigeria’s #EndSARS protests → https://is.gd/VKKxqO	10:44
LjL	my aunt tested positive today but has had a fever for a week, she got tested privately because the public healthcare doctor wouldn't refer her for a test	10:48
LjL	my cousin tested negative to some random serological but she's just started running a fever so that means nothing	10:48
LjL	milan italy	10:48
LjL	she's been working in person for no particular reason since she had a desk job and her work doesn't really follow any distancing regulations. they should be sued but being fired is not a good option	10:58
LjL	rmonten[m], Belgium should be in full lockdown looking at the numbers, it's headed towards being THE worst country atm	10:59
LjL	anything short of full lockdown is reckless when the situation is like that, the one thing we know from past data is that full lockdowns work (after a while)	11:01
darsie	Belgium has a high population density.	11:15
LjL	so does lombardy, a lockdown helped. temporarily, but it's all we can do	11:20
darsie	What's a full lockdown?	11:22
Brainstorm	New from ProPublica: A Nonprofit With Ties to Democrats Is Sending Out Millions of Ballot Applications. Election Officials Wish It Would Stop.: by Joshua Eaton , Lauren Rosenthal and Thy Anh Vo ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up for ProPublica’s User’s Guide to Democracy , a series of personalized emails [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/17Boxk	11:29
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Czech minister of health caught in a restaurant on the day of announcing lockdown. → https://is.gd/YKyREG	11:40
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Restrictions tightened, but no new virus lockdown in Belgium: Belgian Prime minister Alexander De Croo stopped short Friday of imposing another full lockdown, as the country did in March, but introduced a series of new restrictive measures as the number of COVID-19-related hospital admissions and deaths continues to soar. → https://is.gd/sAKu4u	11:51
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Second virus wave could be worst than first: France hospital boss: France's second wave of coronavirus could be worse than the first, the boss of Paris public hospital group AP-HP said on Friday as the country registered a record number of daily cases. → https://is.gd/RZx8YS	12:02
VirusCorona	new virus	12:05
VirusCorona	norovirus	12:05
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +2643 cases (now 8.7 million), +42 deaths (now 228423) since 2 hours ago	12:09
Brainstorm	New from BMJ: Preparing democracies for pandemics: The coronavirus pandemic is not an advertisement for the health effects of democracy. Several democracies—such as New Zealand, South Korea, Germany, and Uruguay—acted quickly to contain SARS-CoV-2,... → https://is.gd/UsD0sQ	12:25
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: 5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday: Dow futures rose Friday as Wall Street monitors stimulus talks, debate reaction, earnings and Covid-19 treatment news. → https://is.gd/Jk7HY9	12:47
Brainstorm	Updates for Switzerland: +6634 cases (now 103653) since 23 hours ago	13:07
Brainstorm	New from Scientific American: Health: A Medical Student Contemplates Pandemic-Era Isolation...and Connection → https://is.gd/1VXOfE	13:10
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: COVID-19: Singapore, Germany agree on green lane travel → https://is.gd/5vt5RM	13:33
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 a double blow for chronic disease patients: There has never been a more dangerous time than the COVID-19 pandemic for people with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes, cancer, respiratory problems or cardiovascular conditions, new UNSW Sydney research has found. → https://is.gd/K5RNDf	14:18
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): We asked 20 medical experts with kids about their pandemic Halloween plans. Here's what they said → https://is.gd/oi9RUA	14:29
lolix335	why is it so silent ?	14:45
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: How psychotherapy can be provided in times of COVID-19: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the potential public health significance of broader dissemination of modes of therapy for both depressive and anxiety disorders that do not require the patient and therapist to be in the same room. Computer-assisted models of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/lm7a2v	15:03
Brainstorm	Updates for Netherlands: +6940 cases (now 272401), +22 deaths (now 6964) since 7 hours ago	15:05
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: FDA shows signs of cold feet over emergency authorization of Covid-19 vaccines: There are serious signs the FDA is getting cold feet over the notion of issuing emergency use authorizations to allow for the widespread early deployment of Covid-19 vaccines. → https://is.gd/oZvOwr	15:14
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: How to stay socially connected as lockdown returns, according to science: After a fairly relaxed summer, more and more places are bringing back tighter restrictions in response to rising COVID-19 cases, with some even returning to full or near-full lockdowns. → https://is.gd/LpVAV6	15:26
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: In hard-hit Peru, worry mounts over both COVID-19 and dengue: Two of Lidia Choque's close family members had already gotten sick with the new coronavirus when the mosquitos arrived. → https://is.gd/DrwCpy	15:37
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Decrease in Hospitalizations for COVID-19 after Mask Mandates in 1083 U.S. Counties (80 votes) \| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.21.20208728v1 \| https://redd.it/jglvks	15:47
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Virus cases in 23 EU nations and UK of 'serious concern': The EU's disease control agency warned on Friday that transmission levels of COVID-19 in 23 member countries and the United Kingdom were now of "serious concern". → https://is.gd/2earel	15:48
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +3392 cases (now 8.7 million), +35 deaths (now 228458) since 3 hours ago	15:50
Brainstorm	New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - October 23 \| Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/85dKco	15:59
bolovanos_	morning	16:09
bolovanos_	mm - hello :)	16:09
de-facto	Hey bolovanos_	16:09
bolovanos_	de-facto, ad information, communication etc. - our health minister caught (by gutter tabloid magazine) violating his own "lockdown" regulation https://translate.google.cz/translate?hl=en&sl=cs&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.seznamzpravy.cz%2Fclanek%2Fministr-prymula-byl-spatren-bez-rousky-cestou-z-restaurace-125724&prev=search	16:12
de-facto	oh thats a bad example for the population if he does not stick to his own rules	16:13
bolovanos_	yes	16:14
bolovanos_	no matter what was behind, if it were our beep prime minister or whatever	16:14
bolovanos_	this adds up to a denying part of population which will certainly fuel their bad behaviour	16:15
de-facto	exactly	16:15
de-facto	its not about if he could have caused infection or such, its about demonstrating that he might think it would be ok not to take regulations serious, if everyone follows that it causes a huge problem	16:16
bolovanos_	big bad in big bad	16:18
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +784 cases (now 8.7 million), +8 deaths (now 228466) since 34 minutes ago	16:20
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Millions more head into UK virus lockdowns: Millions more people headed into coronavirus lockdowns in Britain on Friday, as the government boosted a financial support package but acknowledged failures in a hugely expensive testing programme. → https://is.gd/pXSIkr	16:21
de-facto	it is absolutely essential for the success of containment that there is cohesion without exception in the combined effort	16:22
bolovanos_	and those lies after - such a humiliation to ppl even with single brain cell	16:24
ubLIX[m]	anyone think UK daily deaths will match May peak by Dec?	16:27
de-facto	ubLIX[m], tried to fit an exponential on the curves?	16:28
ubLIX[m]	just eyeballed	16:28
de-facto	do you have a link?	16:29
ubLIX[m]	uh. i downloaded the owid data, and plotted gnuplot	16:30
ubLIX[m]	*with	16:30
ubLIX[m]	and eyeballed the result	16:30
bolovanos_	share that result...	16:31
ubLIX[m]	daily cases obv astronomical, but daily deaths does already look exponential, although less obviously than in april	16:31
bolovanos_	de-facto, btw healt minister's twitter - last tweet - answer to question "can I go out with friend to park" -> Answer - ~ "yes, if it is not your family member, but you have to wear face cover."	16:33
ubLIX[m]	can you suggest an image sharing site that doesn't need an sign-in account?	16:33
bolovanos_	ie https://pasteboard.co/	16:34
ubLIX[m]	it's the same data as on offloop as far as i know, anyway	16:34
de-facto	imgur.com you can even link the jpg itself	16:34
bolovanos_	for a short share - all of them will work fine	16:35
ubLIX[m]	heh. would have thought you need an account with imgur (which i can't be bothered creating). but isn't offloop still up?	16:35
bolovanos_	no need for my link ;)	16:35
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: New understanding of the neuropilin-1 protein could speed COVID vaccine research: When it comes to how the coronavirus invades a cell, it takes three to tango. The dance began with the ACE2 receptor, a protein on human cells that allows SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, to enter and infect the cell. But now enter a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/SIzPVZ	16:44
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Iran daily virus cases top 6,000 in new record: Iran's official daily coronavirus caseload exceeded 6,000 infections on Friday, setting another record this week, as death rates also remained close to the country's all-time high. → https://is.gd/k1Eaf2	16:55
de-facto	ubLIX[m], fitting deaths in UK with an exponential function like 10 Exp[Log[2] time / 11] from 2020-09-08 on till now would give a doubling time of roughly 11 days	17:01
Brainstorm	Updates for Italy: +19143 cases (now 484869), +91 deaths (now 37059) since 23 hours ago — US: +6629 cases (now 8.7 million), +111 deaths (now 228577) since 47 minutes ago	17:06
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): U.S. reports more than 71,600 new Covid cases as new infections near record highs and hospitalizations rise → https://is.gd/k6Kfej	17:06
de-facto	that extrapolated to 2020-12-31 would mean 13175 additional fatalities since 2020-09-08 :\|	17:06
de-facto	or 13005 additional fatalities from today on till 2020-12-31	17:07
de-facto	that is assuming that exponential fit is somewhat accurate and does continue like that	17:07
de-facto	so hopefully that can be prevented	17:08
ubLIX[m]	hmm	17:12
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Millions in UK enter tougher COVID-19 lockdown → https://is.gd/lGjkJ5	17:17
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: SARS-CoV-2 antibodies detectable up to seven months post COVID-19 onset: A new study led by Marc Veldhoen, principal investigator at Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes (iMM; Portugal) with an interdisciplinary team of clinicians and researchers from Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Lisboa (FMUL) and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Th87jQ	17:28
de-facto	%title https://imgur.com/a/0EAEYQf <-- ubLIX[m] made a quick plot for the fit of UK fatalities 10 Exp[Log[2] time / 11] from 2020-09-08 on	17:38
Brainstorm	de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Fatalities UK since 2020-09-08 - Album on Imgur	17:38
de-facto	ubLIX[m], so to answer your question: First peak UK fatalities 943 at 2020-04-14 would be reached at 72 days from 2020-09-08 that is 2020-11-19 assumed exponential extrapolation of deaths continues till then with unchanged parameters	17:45
ubLIX[m]	oh thx. tried a quick look but my browser is so ridiculously locked down (somewhere in firefox's user.js) that it won't talk to imgur, it turns out. not unravelling that web was another reason i didn't want to try posting an image	17:49
ubLIX[m]	thanks for doing that. hopefully lock downs will alter that course	17:49
de-facto	https://i.imgur.com/A4dX2wU.png	17:49
Brainstorm	Updates for United Kingdom: +19039 cases (now 830998) since 10 hours ago — Canada: +672 cases (now 210879), +11 deaths (now 9882) since 48 minutes ago — US: +29 cases (now 8.7 million) since 48 minutes ago	17:51
de-facto	https://i.ibb.co/MpPGDHm/A4dX2wU.png	17:51
de-facto	ubLIX[m], does that load in your browser?	17:52
de-facto	data taken from offloop btw	17:54
ubLIX[m]	that worked	17:54
de-facto	nice, the time axis starts from 8 of Sept because thats where i thought exponential may start	17:55
ubLIX[m]	yep. actually the direct image links for imgur do, just not the imgur site generally. never figured out why	17:56
de-facto	its only a rough estimate somewhat manually eyeballed fit, so its predictive value is somewhat limited but may give an impression where current trends may be heading towards	17:57
Brainstorm	New from In The Pipeline: Are Medicinal Chemists Taking It Too Easy?: I was speaking to a university audience the other day (over Zoom, of course) and as I often do I mentioned the studies that have looked at what kinds of reactions medicinal chemists actually use. The cliché is that we spend most of our time doing things like metal-catalyzed [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/5l397M	18:02
ubLIX[m]	Sept 8th looks about right	18:05
de-facto	A NonLinearModelFit in Mathematica gives 9.45 Exp[ Log[2] t / 10.44] from 8th Sept	18:06
de-facto	so my eyeballed function seems to be somewhat correct i guess	18:06
de-facto	meaning fatalities double each 10.44 days	18:09
de-facto	so lets hope thats not a constant of time and that doubling time will begin to increase significantly very soon	18:12
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: Biotech: STAT Plus: Why the approval of remdesivir to treat Covid-19 obscures bigger scientific failures → https://is.gd/lAHkVM	18:13
de-facto	oh btw with Log[2] = 0.6931... so the natural logarithm of two	18:17
de-facto	some software uses ln() for that, other may use log()	18:18
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: Overwhelmed by cases, North Dakota tells residents with COVID-19 to do their own contact tracing (10022 votes) \| https://www.grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6726337-Overwhelmed-by-cases-North-Dakota-tells-residents-with-COVID-19-to-do-their-own-contact-tracing \| https://redd.it/jgkxxf	18:19
ubLIX[m]	i should extend my gnuplot-fu beyond just plotting bare bare numbers	18:20
Brainstorm	Updates for Canada: +1 deaths (now 9883) since 32 minutes ago	18:21
drytrumpet	Face masks to prevent transmission of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis \| medRxiv https://is.gd/i368IQ	18:23
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Research team discovers molecular processes in kidney cells that attract and feed COVID-19: Although the lungs are a common target for COVID-19's cytokine storm, so are the kidneys, making the 1 in 4 U.S. adults with diabetes resulting in diabetic kidney disease at increased risk for virus mortality. → https://is.gd/1qKXX5	18:47
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +1520 cases (now 8.7 million), +13 deaths (now 228590) since an hour ago	18:51
LjL	there are rumors on a local lockdown ("red zone" as they call it here) in Milan	18:56
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: U.S. daily COVID case count nears record for pandemic: (HealthDay)—The United States on Thursday recorded its second highest daily total of new coronavirus cases since the pandemic began, with 75,000 new infections, while eight states broke single-day records of new cases. → https://is.gd/rdyojs	18:58
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Covid-19: Europe surges again this week: The number of people infected by the novel coronavirus continued to surge in Europe over the past week, while also increasing in Africa and America and abating in Asia. → https://is.gd/FQbkuG	19:10
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Europe sounds alarm over resurgent virus crisis: The EU's disease control agency on Friday joined frantic health workers across Europe in sounding the alarm about the surge in coronavirus infections. → https://is.gd/JIFbBn	19:32
de-facto	oh btw in case it was not clear the fit above is about daily fatalities not accumulated	19:48
de-facto	"COVID-19 Fatalities in Germany since 2020-09-08" Fatalities_de[t] = 3 Exp[ Log[2] t / 12.35] doubling each 12.35 days since 2020-09-08 https://imgur.com/a/UKPGN4B https://i.imgur.com/2sUhApH.png	19:54
de-facto	Daily fatalities for Germany doubling each ~12 days	19:54
de-facto	meaning 1800 daily fatalities at new years	19:55
de-facto	this trend MUST be broken	19:55
Brainstorm	Updates for Spain: +19851 cases (now 1.1 million), +231 deaths (now 34752) since a day ago — US: +7305 cases (now 8.7 million), +68 deaths (now 228658) since an hour ago — Arizona, US: +976 cases (now 235882), +6 deaths (now 5865) since a day ago — Canada: +109 cases (now 210988), +10 deaths (now 9893) since an hour ago	20:07
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): WHO says some countries 'are on a dangerous track' as Covid cases begin to stress health systems → https://is.gd/pM1VIT	20:16
Brainstorm	Updates for France: +20558 cases (now 1.0 million), +298 deaths (now 34508) since 13 hours ago — US: +4956 cases (now 8.7 million), +49 deaths (now 228707) since 20 minutes ago	20:22
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +13232 cases (now 8.7 million), +144 deaths (now 228851) since 48 minutes ago	21:07
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Ottawa buys 76 mn doses of first made-in-Canada COVID-19 vaccine: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a deal Friday to procure 76 million doses of the first made-in-Canada COVID-19 vaccine candidate, enough for the entire population if it proves effective. → https://is.gd/zsmmV8	21:12
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +3606 cases (now 8.7 million), +65 deaths (now 228916) since 20 minutes ago	21:22
Brainstorm	New from Ars Technica: Science: FDA approves remdesivir for COVID-19—but global study finds it doesn’t work → https://is.gd/lhiCib	21:45
kiwi_52	o/	21:46
kiwi_52	how's everyone doing on this 2nd wave ?	21:46
metreo	pretty good actually	21:47
metreo	only 4 active cases in my bubble	21:47
kiwi_52	bubble of .. 4 ?	21:47
metreo	out of 1M people	21:47
kiwi_52	aight good, very good actually	21:47
metreo	bubble of about 1M with 4 active cases	21:47
kiwi_52	metreopolis	21:48
kiwi_52	in europe lot more cases on average	21:48
kiwi_52	i wonder how people react when they know they've been a cluster	21:48
metreo	only 400K in the city actually	21:48
metreo	lots of fear, we just had a superspreader event in a location nearby	21:48
kiwi_52	wait	21:49
kiwi_52	4 cases and a superspreader event ?	21:49
kiwi_52	btw I meant the guilt	21:49
kiwi_52	do people shame others ?	21:49
kiwi_52	did anybody confessed from remorse ?	21:50
metreo	https://imgur.com/a/f5WaSWy	21:50
metreo	https://imgur.com/a/Gu04UWA	21:50
kiwi_52	nice isolation	21:51
kiwi_52	i'm affraid to become a spreader	21:51
metreo	no but we had a doctor who travelled and ended up spreading the virus and he almost lost his license	21:51
kiwi_52	I wear mask all the time	21:51
kiwi_52	but what if	21:51
metreo	not much shaming here but it's not a politically divided area either	21:51
kiwi_52	ah well doctors are blamed if they behave badly	21:51
kiwi_52	didn't know that	21:52
metreo	majority of people don't realize they are spreaders	21:52
kiwi_52	even so long in the pandemic ?	21:52
metreo	I got lucky I just happened to be in a pretty isolated region	21:52
metreo	Yes everything is fine here, I think because the numbers are low there is not much stress about eating out or doing whatever	21:53
metreo	Still would like the rest of the country to get better I want to head back west	21:53
kiwi_52	aight	21:54
metreo	I think this will be a very challenging winter, there is not a lot of optimism nationally	21:55
kiwi_52	economists must be sweating right now	21:55
kiwi_52	i wanted to find data or discussions about supply chain	21:55
metreo	we are seeing exponential growth in serious cases and we can't afford another lockdown even though that's exactly what we need	21:55
metreo	our main trading partner is the US and that has remained open for business travel	21:56
kiwi_52	yeah but with economic slowdown, unemployment	21:57
metreo	I think there was some worry about beef supplies but nothing ever came of it	21:57
kiwi_52	who knows which will close or not	21:57
kiwi_52	but I'm speaking from a bedroom so	21:57
metreo	yes, small businesses are getting hammered, they will not survive another lockdown	21:57
metreo	there isn't much that can be done	21:58
kiwi_52	I assumed people with enough savings could make deliveries for struggling food places	21:58
kiwi_52	paying gas + small bonus, not full wage	21:59
metreo	not sure we had systems like that before	21:59
metreo	it was worthwhile if you didn't have anything else going on	21:59
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +6023 cases (now 8.7 million), +72 deaths (now 228988) since 52 minutes ago — Canada: +133 cases (now 211121) since 2 hours ago	22:07
Brainstorm	New from PLOS ONE: Insights into the genetic diversity, recombination, and systemic infections with evidence of intracellular maturation of hepadnavirus in cats: by Chutchai Piewbang, Sabrina Wahyu Wardhani, Surangkanang Chaiyasak, Jakarwan Yostawonkul, Poowadon Chai-in, Suwimon Boonrungsiman, Tanit Kasantikul, Somporn Techangamsuwan Hepatitis B virus [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/BgmazF	22:07
kiwi_52	you guys saw the Oxford vaccine news ?	22:07
metreo	no	22:07
tinwhiskers	which news? put on hold?	22:08
kiwi_52	https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/23/oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-works-perfectly-and-triggers-strong-immunity-13467677	22:09
tinwhiskers	nice	22:11
tinwhiskers	perfectly sounds like a bit of a stretch however. lol	22:11
metreo	I'll take it	22:11
tinwhiskers	also the question remains, how long does the immunity last?	22:13
metreo	wasn't this the RNA one? I can never remember	22:14
metreo	a RNA vaccine would be lifetime and inheritable, the other kind would not be long lasting unfortunately	22:14
kiwi_52	tinwhiskers the article seems to hint that even with a mild effect .. it will turn the pandemic into a manageable epidemy	22:16
kiwi_52	this alone would be huge	22:16
tinwhiskers	I'd take that article with a grain of salt considering the "perfect" thing. It's a bit hyped.	22:17
dTal	they don't say "makes you immune to coronavirus"	22:17
dTal	they say "shown to produce a ‘strong immune response'"	22:18
kiwi_52	"kills you quicklier"	22:18
tinwhiskers	If I recall correctly (and I may not) the Oxford vaccine is another adenovirus vaccine, like the Russian one, so it may be a one-hit wonder, with people becoming immune to the vaccine vector itself after one use, so if it doesn't have a decent long-lasting effect it may not be much use.	22:19
tinwhiskers	I mean, anything to delay is good while we wait for the better vaccines though.	22:19
dTal	what if you inooculated everyone at once	22:20
dTal	logistically challenging as that would be	22:20
tinwhiskers	that would be nice	22:20
tinwhiskers	but simply not possible to get everyone in the world vaccinated at once	22:20
kiwi_52	if only Trump team had some genius idea like that	22:20
kiwi_52	the mother of all rally for real	22:21
dTal	everyone in the world, no	22:21
dTal	but everyone in a country, possibly	22:21
kiwi_52	just everyone in my head	22:21
tinwhiskers	yeah, I guess that'd still be useful	22:21
tinwhiskers	they could then maybe keep on top of it	22:21
dTal	close borders, boot up contact tracing, open borders with any other country that's done the same	22:22
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +7940 cases (now 8.7 million), +38 deaths (now 229026) since 18 minutes ago — Canada: +65 cases (now 211186) since 17 minutes ago	22:22
tinwhiskers	seems like a good plan if possible	22:22
tinwhiskers	it would delay rollout by quite a bit (unless it's fairly small countries), which might or might not do more harm than a rolling release.	22:23
dTal	also dangerous if there turns out to be an adverse reaction to the vaccine in some people	22:23
tinwhiskers	ah, true	22:24
metreo	it will depend on production which we don't know a lot about	22:24
stick	utopia plan	22:24
metreo	there can also be problems during production	22:24
metreo	some people in SKorea recently died from this supposedly	22:24
metreo	the report is that it wasn't the vaccine actually	22:25
metreo	https://www.msn.com/en-au/lifestyle/wellbeing/south-korea-presses-on-with-flu-vaccination-programme-amid-concerns-about-deaths/ar-BB1ajfSq	22:27
metreo	and that is influenza which we presumably have a detailed understanding of how to produce	22:28
tinwhiskers	"<metreo> a RNA vaccine would be lifetime and inheritable, the other kind would not be long lasting unfortunately" - I'm pretty sure this is not true.	22:29
metreo	isn't the RNA vaccine recombinant?	22:29
Brainstorm	New from WebMD: Searching for Clues to COVID-19 Immunity: Getting more specific answers about how the immune system responds to the virus that causes COVID-19, including whether recovery is likely permanent, is crucial not only to those who have recovered. These answers can help inform vaccine makers to make the most effective vaccines as well. → https://is.gd/T3JRkj	22:29
stick	its caused be the flu shots	22:30
tinwhiskers	it doesn't affect the human genome, which is what it sounded like you were saying.	22:30
metreo	I'm non-expert but that was my lay-understanding	22:30
tinwhiskers	it uses viral RNA to produce the proteins that trigger an immune response, as an alternative to using attenuated viruses. There is no change to human DNA whatsoever. That would be an ethical nightmare.	22:31
metreo	there are those in development though	22:32
metreo	there are vaccines which modify RNA	22:32
tinwhiskers	I... don't think so	22:32
metreo	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_vaccine#Advantages_over_DNA_vaccines	22:32
tinwhiskers	You're misinterpreting this, I'm sure.	22:32
LjL	stick, what is a utopia plan?	22:33
LjL	and what is caused by the flu shots?	22:33
metreo	tinwhiskers, I'm sure I am	22:33
stick	vacine/serlize/kill over population	22:34
stick	sterilize	22:34
tinwhiskers	I think the proteins are actually generated by the human body via messenger RNA acting on the viral RNA fragments, but there's no change to the human germline.	22:34
tinwhiskers	need yuriwho to explain that one	22:35
metreo	but the body has acquired immunity	22:35
LjL	stick, for conspiracy theories without a basis in reality you should head elsewhere. i'm not sure where since i try to avoid them	22:35
tinwhiskers	yes, but aquiring immunity vai T-cell "memory", etc. does not affect DNA	22:36
stick	https://duckduckgo.com/?q=utopia+tv+show&t=canonical&ia=web	22:36
metreo	I haven't heard anything about DNA	22:36
tinwhiskers	well, humans have DNA, so if it's affecting the human genome it is affecting DNA (it's not).	22:37
LjL	stick, a link to a search engine doesn't help a lot. what are you trying to say? that you're not talking about reality, but about the tv show? or that the tv show describes reality?	22:37
stick	infos there fix your computer	22:38
tinwhiskers	if there are rumours going around that any of these vaccines permanently alter the human genome those rumours should really be stopped as they are harmful to any vaccine programme.	22:38
LjL	stick, that's just a spiteful and useless thing to say. you are now quieted from this channel.	22:39
LjL	stick, if you are going to just spit silly PM's at me, i can't be sure you are not going to act up in general, so your quiet is now a ban	22:41
metreo	tinwhiskers, I haven't heard anything about the human genome	22:41
tinwhiskers	"<metreo> a RNA vaccine would be lifetime and inheritable, the other kind would not be long lasting unfortunately" - you say inheritable. that means it affects the genome.	22:42
LjL	things can be inheritable without changing the genome	22:42
LjL	i don't know if that's relevant there	22:42
LjL	but just saying	22:43
metreo	https://www.vox.com/2020/8/13/21359025/coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19-moderna-oxford-mrna-adenovirus	22:43
tinwhiskers	there's some epigenetic things, yeah	22:43
tinwhiskers	fair point	22:43
metreo	O	22:43
metreo	Outside my expertise honestly*	22:43
tinwhiskers	metreo: do you have any link to back up this inheritable vaccine thing?	22:44
tinwhiskers	it sounds very wrong to me	22:44
metreo	the mother transfers immunity to the fetus during gestation no?	22:44
LjL	wouldn't most vaccines, if they work long-term, be "inheritable" in the sense that while a newborn is still using its mother immune system, which i believe lasts for a while, it would be immune?	22:44
tinwhiskers	although antibodies are passed on via colostrum milk after birth	22:44
metreo	assuming the immunity is of the long lasting variety OFC	22:45
tinwhiskers	babies don't generally use their mothers antibodies afaik. They are protected by their mother's defences, and anitbodies are transferred after birth in colostrum.	22:46
metreo	could be, OFC by that time the baby is given vaccines	22:46
tinwhiskers	but, yeah, they are still "inherited", so I guess that may be what it's describing.	22:47
metreo	Inovio is developing a coronavirus vaccine that uses a double-stranded ring of DNA known as a plasmid. It requires a hand-held device to induce an electric current near the injection site, causing pores within the cell to open, which allows the plasmid to enter. The instructions in the plasmid can then be used to make viral proteins.	22:47
tinwhiskers	yes, so the plasmids make the viral proteins that cause an immune response	22:48
metreo	yeah you add the anti-viral factory to the cell	22:48
metreo	biochemistry was always baffling to me	22:48
tinwhiskers	there the plasmid is generating viral proteins. your body is still the "anti-viral factory" responding to the proteins generated by the plasmid.	22:49
metreo	I think the cell is the unit of interest here, but OFC the body is composed of cells	22:50
metreo	all with tiny little factories consuming and producing compounds	22:51
metreo	:)	22:51
LjL	uh, vaccine with taser	22:52
metreo	tiny tasers?	22:53
kiwi_52	electrically powered social distanciation	22:53
LjL	hopefully tiny and not very painful	22:53
kiwi_52	LjL lives horses	22:53
metreo	yes some kind os a proximity based taser device would prevent contamination when walking in public	22:54
metreo	of*	22:54

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