libera/##covid-19/ Tuesday, 2022-03-01

LjL%print https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1498327329096933381/00:01
BrainstormLjL, It says: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "The Omicron crisis in Hong Kong. This is a graph of fatalities, not cases @OurWorldInData" | nitter00:01
LjL%cases Hong Kong00:02
BrainstormLjL: Hong Kong has had 171314 confirmed cases (2.3% of all people) and 659 deaths (0.4% of cases; 1 in 11382 people) as of 19 hours ago. 36.3 million tests were done (4.8 per capita, 0.5% positive). 4.9 million were vaccinated (65.7%). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Hong%20Kong&legacy=no00:02
Sky_Nethello all00:46
LjL-MatrixHi00:59
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol):  @TheLancetInfDis "We found that booster immunizations can effectively elicit omicron variant-neutralizing activity in the majority of older individuals" [median age 82, range 76-96]thelancet.com/journals/lanin… pic.twitter.com/CPPQX48OfY → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149844692174828749001:02
BrainstormUpdates for Hong Kong: +34466 cases, +85 deaths since 20 hours ago — El Salvador: +8578 cases since 6 hours ago — Greenland: +2 deaths since 2 days ago01:05
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Fourth dose of COVID vaccine offers only slight boost against Omicron infection → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/t3u3jz/fourth_dose_of_covid_vaccine_offers_only_slight/01:33
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): New Zealand and Omicron: 19,588 new cases today, Prior to this variant never >250. Very few deaths. Graphs are absolute numbers for both metrics, 1 day behindhealth.govt.nz/covid-19-novel… and @OurWorldInData pic.twitter.com/ZDTogfVyIR → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149845752837971968201:43
BrainstormUpdates for China: +112428 cases since 18 hours ago — Canada: +8117 cases, +61 deaths, +98146 tests (3.8% positive) since 8 hours ago02:07
LjL%cases china02:22
BrainstormLjL: China has had 280721 confirmed cases (0.0% of all people) and 5380 deaths (1.9% of cases; 1 in 260582 people) as of 14 minutes ago. 160.0 million tests were done (0.1 per capita, 0.2% positive). +112428 cases since 18 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=China&legacy=no02:22
LjLthis is basically all HK02:23
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: Extract from the bark of the Neem tree may help treat and reduce the spread of coronavirus, according to a new study. Components of Neem bark may target a wide range of viral proteins, suggesting its potential as an antiviral agent against emerging [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/t3v2cu/extract_from_the_bark_of_the_neem_tree_may_help/03:03
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +488 cases since 6 hours ago03:10
TuvixCDC's US update showed another 2 days this weekend with a very flat death rate. That's not "just" the more southern states either looking at the NYT's interactive state breakdown. Some states that had declined from Omicron peaks are also flat or even going up slightly in both hospital & death figures.03:12
Tuvixhttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths_newhospitaladmissions03:13
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Some progress in US Covid hospitalizations. The last time we were below 44,000 was 7 months ago (28 July) → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149848379164329984103:32
BrainstormUpdates for Friesland, Netherlands: +10470 cases, +2 deaths since 5 days ago — Drenthe, Netherlands: +7439 cases since 5 days ago04:00
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): Overwhelming data show that early detection of cancer is the key to long term survival.During the pandemic, a lot of routine healthcare and cancer screening was delayed, forgone.It’s critical that we make a concerted effort to help people [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/149850338142961664104:49
BrainstormUpdates for New Zealand: +17989 cases, +16851 tests (106.8% positive) since 23 hours ago05:02
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A lot written today about a vaccine not working well for ages 5-11. That was vs Omicron infections, which is not at all surprising. We still don't know vs severe disease, hospitalizations since the events were so few and 95% CI are all over the [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149851798625616281705:47
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +163396 cases, +76 deaths since 12 hours ago — Vietnam: +122480 cases, +108 deaths, +120217 tests (101.9% positive) since a day ago06:07
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +130549 cases since 17 hours ago — China: +147094 cases since 23 hours ago — Bashkortostan, Russia: +3442 cases, +19 deaths since 23 hours ago — Kedah, Malaysia: +2782 cases, +7 deaths since 23 hours ago07:09
BrainstormNew from MedicineNet: (news): CDC Loosens Mask Guidelines as Omicron Surge Subsides → http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp07:59
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | March 01, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/t42ta1/daily_discussion_thread_march_01_2022/09:06
BrainstormUpdates for Cook Is.: +17 cases, +445 tests (3.8% positive) since a day ago — France: +15278 cases, +234 deaths since 23 hours ago10:04
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Politics: STAT+: Pfizer made Trump’s vaccine push harder than it needed to be, former Warp Speed official alleges in new book → https://www.statnews.com/2022/03/01/pfizer-trump-covid-vaccine-paul-mango-book/10:51
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Can I defer my revalidation?: We offer flexibility to cope with current uncertaintiesHolly Chadwick, revalidation manager at the General Medical Council, says, “The pandemic has placed unprecedented pressure on doctors, and we... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o429.short11:39
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Some data here;Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine among children 5-11 and 12-17 years in New York after the Emergence of the Omicron VariantBut numbers are low, so this will not be accurate, and the level of severe disease protection is [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/149862350750005248012:45
BrainstormNew from Pfizer: Anonymous: Phase 3 CLOVER Trial for Pfizer’s Investigational Clostridioides Difficile Vaccine Indicates Strong Potential Effect in Reducing Duration and Severity of Disease Based on Secondary Endpoints → https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/phase-3-clover-trial-pfizers-investigational-clostridioides12:55
BrainstormUpdates for Brunei: +4220 cases, +2 deaths since a day ago12:59
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine Protection Wanes Quickly in 5 to 11 Year Olds: New research points to vaccine effectiveness against infection dropping from 68% to 12% in this pediatric population within a month. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/pfizer-biontech-vaccine-protection-wanes-quickly-in-5-to-11-year-olds14:03
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +131214 cases since 23 hours ago15:04
BrainstormNew from NIH Director's blog: How COVID-19 Immunity Holds Up Over Time: More than 215 million people in the United States are now fully vaccinated against the SARS-CoV-2 virus responsible for COVID-19 [1]. More than 40 percent—more than 94 million people—also have rolled up their sleeves [... want %more?] → https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2022/03/01/how-covid-19-immunity-holds-up-over-time/15:11
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Broad Institute wins legal battle over CRISPR patents; Pfizer’s C. diff vaccine fails in study → https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2022/03/01/covid19-bacteria-crispr-patents-lilly-pfizer-glaxo-hiv-medicaid/15:30
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: General: COVID-19 vaccines: research and development → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/vaccines-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines-research-development16:00
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): Seems the Russian bots and trolls that have pretended to be anonymous accounts from other countries and spread anti-vaxx & anti-control sentiments throughout SoMe of western countries throughout the pandemic may be taking a break twitter.com/klharlow/statu… → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/149867777758273127316:20
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Covid2019: An Open Letter to President Biden, Cabinet and Congressional Leadership and Key Government Agencies: Covid-19 Longhaulers & Their Families Call for the Imemdiate Formation of Long COVID Assistance Programs and a Long Covid Task Force → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/t4afcy/an_open_letter_to_president_biden_cabinet_and/16:29
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: IDSA (@IDSAInfo): ICYMI: Last Saturday's IDSA/@CDCgov Clinician Call with updates from @US_FDA, @cleverwebber, @florian_krammer, @ElliTheelPhD and other health experts, on #serologytesting is available on IDSA website: bit.ly/3suJNYb #RealTimeCOVID19 @RealTimeCOVID19 → https://twitter.com/IDSAInfo/status/149868423711292211216:49
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Denmark study of #LongCovid at 6-12 months in <60,000 infectees (96% not hospitalized) and >90,000 controls medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Not seen in table below is the high rate of memory & cognitive issues reported"The burden ...appears to be significant in the [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149869019581783244817:08
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +138001 cases, +160 deaths since 23 hours ago — Canada: +9027 cases, +72 deaths since 23 hours ago17:09
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Tuesday 01 March 2022 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/t4bbpe/tuesday_01_march_2022_update/17:18
BrainstormNew from LitCovid: (news): A Glass Half-Full: Positive Aspects of Covid-19 Pandemic on Delivery of Public Hospital Urology Care. → https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/publication/3522482617:28
BrainstormUpdates for Malaysia: +25854 cases, +78 deaths since 17 hours ago17:59
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Post-acute symptoms, new onset diagnoses and health problems 6 to 12 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection: a nationwide questionnaire study in the adult Danish population → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/t4d0kc/postacute_symptoms_new_onset_diagnoses_and_health/18:27
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): More than 58% of American children have had coronavirus infection, according to new @CDCgov estimates derived from blood tests that reveal antibodies from prior infection. washingtonpost.com/health/2022/02… pic.twitter.com/d6r909ptQp → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/149871200182396928118:36
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +47136 cases, +233 deaths, +530858 tests (8.9% positive) since 22 hours ago19:02
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: Genetic Mutation for Severe COVID-19 Protects Against HIV Infection: A major genetic risk factor for COVID-19, inherited from Neandertals, significantly reduces the risk of contracting HIV. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/genetic-mutation-for-severe-covid-19-protects-against-hiv-infection19:05
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol):  @CDCMMWRExcellent protection vs hospitalizations for children and teens, ages 5-17, by vaccinations and booster, vs Omicron and Deltacdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7… pic.twitter.com/79fljvJNuz → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149872099757000704119:15
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Compulsory Covid jabs for care home staff scrapped: Regulations requiring care workers to be vaccinated against Covid are being lifted from mid-March in England. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-6057551919:54
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +99453 cases, +269 deaths since 22 hours ago — Canada: +9169 cases, +82 deaths since 23 hours ago20:04
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Science: Researchers may have ID’ed first deer-to-human SARS-CoV-2 transmission → https://arstechnica.com/?p=183743921:02
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +58561 cases, +473 deaths since 4 days ago — Germany: +123081 cases since 23 hours ago21:07
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The words "pariah," "isolation" and "backfire" have taken on new meaning in recent days → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/149875157610565222421:11
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: News Scan for Mar 01, 2022: COVID vaccine for childcare workers Veterinary antimicrobial stewardship Another infant-formula death → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/03/news-scan-mar-01-202221:31
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: Dementia patients died at higher rates during pandemic: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Mar 01, 2022 Medicare beneficiaries with Alzheimer's or other types of dementia died at higher rates. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/03/dementia-patients-died-higher-rates-during-pandemic21:51
BrainstormUpdates for France: +80473 cases, +210 deaths since 23 hours ago — Canada: +7789 cases since 23 hours ago22:09
TuvixHmm, BA.2 advancing on the US now just as BA.1 may finally be at or near peak (by proportion to all varients, not case peaks) based on collection date (which will slightly lag the infection timing from the infected individual of course.) https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions23:06
LjLIs there any country where BA.2 clearly caused a second spike?23:10
TuvixI don't think I've seen that, but my worry in the US is that it may contribute to slowing an already dubious recovery for some regions.23:11
TuvixI'm in a state that's now seen a small rise in hospitalizations & deaths, while a neighboring one hasn't, although they're also slightly better vaccinated and still has some weak & sparse limitations while my state has virtually none for months.23:12
`St0nermarch 1 marks the day when the province of ontario, canada lifts practically all covid restrictions. vaccine passports no longer mandatory anywhere, though private businesses are free to enforce whatever rules they want23:12
TuvixCountry-wide deaths are also on the rise if you use 7-day averages, although that _might_ just be a larger indication that Omicron (BA.1 mostly) is just now getting into the traditionally under-vaccinated areas.23:12
LjLI thought Topol said deaths were reducing23:13
`St0nerpretty sure universities still require masking and vaccines23:13
TuvixLjL: Well, depends where. Nationally glosses over the fact that some areas are still on the rise, but our national recovery from death largely stopped recovering in aggregate this past week: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths23:13
`St0neri havent been on the latest covid news for awhile, how many days of immunity do i have after recovering from omicron?23:14
`St0neri heard "90" was the number being thrown around23:14
TuvixNow, be a little careful because last monday (8 days ago) was also a federal holiday, so today's 1-day "spike" on that CDC chart above is potentially just fallout from that on the averaging, but even without that our (US) recovery has kind of stalled out.23:14
LjLIt's not like a timeout23:15
Tuvix*Hopefully* the US gets back on a slow-but-declining death rate soon, but that'll depend both on how much more death is going to happen in the under-vaccinated (rural & southern areas now mostly) plus how much BA.2 or any removal of restrictions plays a role in more infections.23:15
Tuvix`St0ner: That's the wrong way to look at it; you don't get some magic protective veil if you've been infected, and documented cases of re-infection (that is, with negative PCR tests done in-between) within just weeks can occur too.23:16
TuvixYour protection from infection depends on a lot of factors, including if you've been vaccinated (infection after a 2-dose primer or especially after boosting) will be stronger since the body gets a chance to re-train the memory-cells (B-cells) more than just an infection in an un-primed immune system.23:17
`St0nerhttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00219-6/fulltext suggests that antibody levels begin to decline three months after a previous infection23:18
TuvixFurther, infection is variable; not everyone gets exposed at the same dosages, and the immune response is going to depend in part on how much exposure (ie: the viral load) you got.23:18
TuvixAntibodies != "immunity."23:18
TuvixIt's a *factor* in them, but you are absolutely not immune to re-infection. Moreso between varients, and BA.2 is going to be more likely to re-infect someone who had BA.1 (or especially Delta or earlier) than somoene who had a BA.2 infection.23:19
TuvixThis isn't like a video game where you get some magic immunity when you re-spawn so you can move to safety. Real-world medical science is more about odds and likelyhoods of events occurring.23:19
`St0nerhttps://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/newsroom/news-releases/study-shows-immune-cells-against-covid-19-stay-high-in-number-six-months-after-vaccination23:20
`St0neryes, understood antibodies and immune cells != immunity23:20
TuvixI mean, I can shower you with references too, if you want to play that game.23:20
Tuvixhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/21/covid-reinfection-how-likely-are-you-to-catch-virus-multiple-times23:20
Tuvix.title https://www.newsweek.com/stealth-ba-2-omicron-covid-variant-ba-1-reinfect-study-168131523:21
BrainstormTuvix: From www.newsweek.com: Stealth BA.2 Omicron Variant Can Reinfect People Who Had BA.1, Study Finds23:21
Tuvix.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.19.22271112v123:21
BrainstormTuvix: From www.medrxiv.org: Occurrence and significance of Omicron BA.1 infection followed by BA.2 reinfection | medRxiv23:21
TuvixThe last one is a study showing BA.2 reinfection.23:21
TuvixSo, no, you should absolutely not go out and assume you have some magic 3-month pass where you're just invincible, less you end up like Borris from that James Bond movie.23:22
`St0neryes, i do want to play that game :) thanks for the links. i've been not paying attention to any covid news after recovering from it at end of january23:22
TuvixThe link to the study is in the tweet, but this is an interesting re-infection chart too: https://twitter.com/JusDayDa/status/149731791073320140823:22
`St0nerthat preprint medrxiv says "In conclusion, we provide evidence that Omicron BA.2 reinfections do occur shortly after BA.1 infections but are rare."23:23
TuvixAnd yet 10 or so percent of the cases in MN from Omicron were reinfections. BA.2 may be a bit less than that since it's likely a bit less different than the Delta-to-BA.1 changes, but BA.2 still has a substantial set of mutations.23:24
`St0nerthat's an odd chart. why the same text but different color on the secondary value axis23:25
Tuvixthe left vs. right side? It's the same axis.23:26
TuvixJust labeled on both sides (yes, that's weird, I guess so you can look at whatever side is closer.)23:26
TuvixThe colors are locations: MN (USA) vs. UK vs. Denmark.23:26
`St0nerguess whoever made that never learned professional charting. UK (England) is also a weird way to write that23:26
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Post-acute symptoms, new onset diagnoses and health problems 6-12 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection: a nationwide questionnaire study in adult Danish populationPre-print: 96% of infected were not hospitalised; yet, many suffered from long-term [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/149878610232028365523:28
`St0neranyway, i'm glad canada is opening up based on rapidly decreasing case counts, hospitalizations, deaths due to effective public health policy and minimal karens and kevins in the population. hope my american brethren get their collective shit under control soon23:29
TuvixSome places in the US are doing notably better, but it's very inconsistent and regional, but the push seems to be to abandon all rules no matter what.23:29
TuvixIt's like there's some collective sense that if we all just ignore it, this will continue to go away. That's *one* of several possible outcomes, but it seems a lot like blind wishful thinking to me, especially when you look at a per-state breakdown.23:30
TuvixThis isn't paywalled but does require a (free) NYT account, but it does a nice job of comparing states in the post-vaccine era to the pre-vaccine Alpha (Winter 2020-21) spike: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html23:31
TuvixJust below the first 2 wide graphs, it breaks out all 50 states (plus PR & DC) and plots their relative case, hospital, & death rates since July last year to current.23:32
`St0nerprotip, use a paywall bypassing addon in firefox/chrome, then you dont need an NYT acct23:33
TuvixI will agree fully that Canada has generally seen much improved outcomes vs. the US.23:33
TuvixAlthough almost *any* modern country has done better than the US, so that's not exactly a high bar to meet.23:34
`St0nerlol truth23:34
TuvixUS vs. CAN on cases, hospital admits, ICU, & Deaths: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-05-01..latest&Metric=Cases%2C+hospital+admissions%2C+ICU+patients%2C+and+deaths&country=USA~CAN23:35
TuvixGranted Canada also saw a pretty big spike in deaths from Omicron, but at about half of what the US saw, and the US did much worse (almost as bad as Omicron) from Delta and never really recovered. Our ICUs & hospitals just got slammed too.23:36
`St0nersome of canada's more radical/extremist rightwing politicians used the US as an example of why we should lift restrictions sooner, and said the canadian medical system was underfunded and underequipped. however, the counterarguments to that were that the US medical system is exceptionally well funded and equipped, and they still had horrific covid outcomes23:42
TuvixIt's not as well-funded as you might think; it wasn't so much doctors or "high-pay" medical personal that were in short supply, but nurses sure were, some of which have been burnt out partly or completely out of the workforce as a result.23:43
TuvixIn the worse-hit places in terms of hospital & ICU strain, it wasn't uncommon for busy hospital systems to be paying top-dollar for "travelling nurses" to come from far away who could demand a high rate of pay since no one else was available; not every healthcare system could aford that.23:43
TuvixThe issue is really one of a system that's seen corners cut to the point that it can't handle this kind of a surge in patients who need care, and can't sustain it in ways the US has. Just look at the OWID graph above with an eye to how the post-Delta recovery got stuck and didn't recover to pre-Delta levels as the Omicron wave hit.23:45
TuvixCanada by contrast did a lot better, with much reduced impact and strain on the healthcare system. Had Canada taken the "no rules" approach the majority of the US did in the pre-Delta summer of 2021, there may have been more impact. Canadians are also more vaccinated and more willing to do the socially-responsible thing like mask & isolate (not all of them, just *more* of them.)23:46
TuvixIt's no 1 thing that is the silver-bullet here; all these mitigations work together.23:46
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Neutralizing antibody responses elicited by SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination wane over time and are boosted by breakthrough infection → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/t4ktou/neutralizing_antibody_responses_elicited_by/23:57

Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!