| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +32607 cases (now 3.9 million), +23 deaths (now 80934) since 3 days ago | 00:03 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Thousands thought they were getting the Covid vaccine. They were injected with salt water instead. Thousands of people have fallen prey to an elaborate wide-ranging scam selling fake coronavirus vaccines in India, with doctors and medical workers among those arrested for their involvement. → https://is.gd/WA9f7i | 00:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: England May Be Lifting Nearly All Of Its Coronavirus Restrictions By July 19: Prime Minister Boris Johnson says most remaining restrictions may soon be gone. If the plan moves ahead, it would bring about the closest version of pre-pandemic normalcy in nearly a year-and-a-half. → https://is.gd/xROwnQ | 00:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Uganda: +480 cases (now 84116), +855 deaths (now 1966) since 22 hours ago | 00:40 |
| LjL | in Portugal the deaths are kinda going up too, not just the cases | 00:41 |
| LjL | and the amount of vaccinations is... similar to the rest of the EU? | 00:41 |
| LjL | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Spain;South%20Africa;Portugal;Greece&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&leftTrim=400&rightTrim=2 | 00:42 |
| de-facto | .title https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations <-- portugal got one of the steepest vaccination curves in EU | 00:43 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From ourworldindata.org: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data | 00:43 |
| de-facto | at least most recently | 00:44 |
| de-facto | Africa and Oceania is really behind in terms of vaccinations | 00:47 |
| de-facto | hmm not Australia though | 00:49 |
| de-facto | Africa needs more vaccinations, especially now when Delta arrived there | 00:50 |
| de-facto | on the map it looks like every other continent got more doses per capita | 00:50 |
| nixonix | i think portugal got couple million doses from somewhere https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/portugal-to-vaccinate-1-7-million-in-two-weeks-as-covid-infections-rise-20210704-p586mj.html | 00:51 |
| de-facto | here we are thinking about third doses and in SA they are below 1% for first doses in a huge Delta wave | 00:52 |
| nixonix | im still wondering how some eu countries have got more doses than others... | 00:52 |
| de-facto | that is not ok imho | 00:52 |
| LjL | nixonix, how do you know they do? | 00:52 |
| LjL | if you just look at the doses *given*, that's not necessarily the same as the doses *obtained* | 00:52 |
| nixonix | looking at owid vacc curves. there might be reporting delays, but differencies are like some countries have done 10% or so more, so it wouldnt explain | 00:53 |
| LjL | some countries may be keeping more doses aside for second jabs | 00:54 |
| LjL | for italy we have sites with the amount of doses that each region has kept aside | 00:54 |
| de-facto | and fatalities are rising steeply in SA | 00:55 |
| LjL | it's usually not a lot, but at earlier times it could be 10% of the total | 00:55 |
| nixonix | the differencies keep increasing all the time. so reporting delays or doses on side wouldnt explain | 00:55 |
| LjL | well Germany iirc bought some doses independently of the EU program | 00:55 |
| LjL | and some other countries got Sputnik that way | 00:55 |
| nixonix | yeah, but there are others too | 00:55 |
| nixonix | sputnik isnt used much, was it 1 or 2 eu countries | 00:56 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.unicef.org/supply/covid-19-vaccine-market-dashboard | 00:56 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.unicef.org: COVID-19 Vaccine Market Dashboard | UNICEF Supply Division | 00:56 |
| nixonix | thats only officially announced | 00:56 |
| de-facto | EU simply bought the most | 00:57 |
| nixonix | yeah most, but those dont include all necessarily. pfizer and moderna dont comment, when asked | 00:57 |
| LjL | also, i never quite understood how it worked, but in the earlier days, i saw a table of exactly which vaccines Italy had bought, which was a "custom selection" of the vaccines the EU had available. i remember that table came with a source but i couldn't find it on the actual source | 00:58 |
| LjL | so i couldn't find the equivalent tables for other countries | 00:58 |
| LjL | but if each country bought vaccines from "the menu", well, they aren't all delivering at the same rates as we know | 00:58 |
| nixonix | then one difference is, some countries didnt want to buy all the vaccines available from eu, so some countries offered to buy that extra. even some pfizer was available if i recall, from some eastern european country or countries | 01:00 |
| nixonix | but that information is available, if you look for it. not that, if some countries have bought vaccines on top of eu order | 01:00 |
| nixonix | a few countries were in israel negotiating with pfizer some time ago. not sure how many, but at least denmark | 01:01 |
| de-facto | there is a Delivery tab on the unicef dashboard | 01:01 |
| nixonix | it still includes only the officially announced orders | 01:02 |
| nixonix | or publicly announced, as it says | 01:02 |
| de-facto | yeah they collect those and stuff it into their db | 01:02 |
| LjL | well i don't know where to look for it, aside from that UNICEF page which is a "best effort" kind of thing | 01:03 |
| nixonix | those side orders, from the companies that eu ordered, i think only that german order (of 30M was it) is public | 01:03 |
| nixonix | even for that, some eu chief said, its only rumors and she doesnt know if its true or not | 01:04 |
| de-facto | the German order? | 01:04 |
| LjL | well i know that the EU got pretty mad at some countries for making "side orders" (think Hungary), even though afaik the agreement *allowed* side orders *as long as* they weren't for the same vaccines the EU had ordered | 01:05 |
| nixonix | so they know some countries are just a bit more equal than others, and are allowed to break the eu vaccine order rules, and they dont want to talk about it (while they prob know - eu) | 01:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +5 deaths (now 26365) since 22 hours ago | 01:05 |
| LjL | so Sputnik should be fine, and yet they yelled at Hungary | 01:05 |
| LjL | somehow nobody seems to have yelled at Germany | 01:05 |
| de-facto | i think its true, because Spahn (healthcare minister) was asked about it on press conference and replied with explaining why it is legal and was after EU contracts finalized etc | 01:05 |
| nixonix | and im talking only about the same vaccines that eu made the order, and what rules apply to. not sputnik, chinese etc, who cares about them. and its allowed | 01:05 |
| de-facto | they did *not* break any rules by that | 01:06 |
| LjL | well maybe you two should agree on whether or not that breaks rules because it doesn't seem like you do | 01:06 |
| LjL | let me know when you've found the true truth :P | 01:06 |
| nixonix | here our healthcare officials said, they are not allowed to make side orders | 01:07 |
| de-facto | the idea was that before the EU contracts were finalized no single countries should do any separate contracts (in order not to sabotage the EU contract), but that can not mean that any time in the future there never ever can be many any additional contracts | 01:07 |
| de-facto | ofc they dont affect the agreed delivery amounts to EU afaik | 01:07 |
| nixonix | so i guess eu rule interpretation depends on country | 01:07 |
| LjL | "ofc" | 01:07 |
| LjL | i have no idea why you say "ofc" | 01:07 |
| LjL | it's seemed pretty apparent that vaccine manufacturers have prioritized countries that paid more | 01:07 |
| de-facto | because Spahn mentioned that on the discussion, meaning the delivery amounts for the earlier contracts have priority | 01:08 |
| LjL | whether or not those countries had also ordered earlier... maybe, but i don't really see why a country that pays more afterwards wouldn't potentially be given preferential treatment by the vaccine manufacturer. "oh it's against the contract", well the EU contracts sucked, so, maybe it's not | 01:08 |
| LjL | of course they have theoretical priority | 01:08 |
| LjL | theoretically, we should be receiving AZ from the UK too | 01:09 |
| LjL | i'm sure you're not blind to some of the actual realities | 01:09 |
| nixonix | why eu hasnt said if its ok or not? they just said, its only rumors and they dont know if its true or not | 01:09 |
| de-facto | (tbh i dont know anything more than what spahn said in a press conference, i could not verify any of that myself) | 01:09 |
| nixonix | if they said its ok for others too, we could have made an order. but instead, our officials said they couldnt | 01:10 |
| de-facto | i only see that vaccine delivery in most EU countries seem to be quite the same | 01:10 |
| de-facto | as is progress with vaccinations, so it looks quite fair (inside EU) at least | 01:10 |
| nixonix | official numbers. and german order is public now. but how many others, belgium, denmark etc? | 01:10 |
| de-facto | it is unfair in comparison to continents like Africa for example, this is a real problem imho | 01:11 |
| nixonix | 10% more is not quite ok | 01:11 |
| nixonix | 1% perhaps | 01:11 |
| nixonix | dont play the africa card. its about between eu countries | 01:11 |
| de-facto | huh? they look quite equal in EU | 01:11 |
| de-facto | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-fully-vaccinated-covid?tab=map&time=latest | 01:12 |
| nixonix | doses shared | 01:12 |
| de-facto | its always per capita ofc | 01:13 |
| nixonix | belgium has the manufacturing, so they prob got some extra without problem. and i almost accept it. have to compare more and perhaps raise a hell... idk, writing on forums? | 01:13 |
| nixonix | yeah per capita | 01:14 |
| de-facto | to me it looks quite equally distributed inside EU at least | 01:14 |
| nixonix | btw israel has offered couple millioin pfizer as a loan, expiring on july | 01:14 |
| de-facto | also this here | 01:15 |
| de-facto | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=map&time=latest | 01:15 |
| LjL | that's the share of people fully vaccinated de-facto, you can't use *that* map for comparison (apart from the fact the steps are 10%) | 01:15 |
| LjL | different countries may have different strategies for single vs double shot, so you need to look at shots per capita | 01:15 |
| de-facto | well then doses per capita as per my second link on owid | 01:16 |
| de-facto | all 80-90 per 100 citizens | 01:16 |
| LjL | well that one says germany 92.3, spain 91.5, italy 88.6, france 80.6, | 01:16 |
| LjL | those are different by more than 10% like nixonix said | 01:16 |
| LjL | i still insist one should look at the amount of doses set aside | 01:17 |
| LjL | but if we agree that the OWID numbers are valid, then clearly there *is* a non-negligible difference | 01:17 |
| nixonix | yeah its quite ok for a german, when youve got almost 10% more than eu average, and way more than some! | 01:17 |
| nixonix | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?time=2021-01-01..latest&country=DEU~FRA~ITA~DNK~EST~ESP~FIN~SWE~GRC~PRT~European+Union | 01:17 |
| LjL | but then we have Slovakia with 67%, which is awful, but i don't think that's because Slovakia got fewer doses, i remember reading that there is very high vaccine hesitancy there | 01:18 |
| LjL | so i'm not convinced you can use those figures to infer how many vaccines were *delivered* | 01:18 |
| nixonix | and italy too looks guilty! | 01:18 |
| LjL | okay don't start talking about "guilty" now | 01:19 |
| nixonix | ok you got lots of shit for early epidemic, im ok with you | 01:19 |
| nixonix | .title http://www.dt.mef.gov.it/en/news/2021/moneta_professioni_sanitarie_22062021.html | 01:19 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.dt.mef.gov.it: A coin dedicated to healthcare professions: the gratitude of Italy in the year of the pandemic. - MEF Department of Treasury | 01:19 |
| LjL | first, if you want to claim those are deliveries, or that deliveries don't differ substantially from doses administered, that's on you to prove | 01:19 |
| de-facto | i think it is very well equalized between EU countries, its a dynamic process and i think we should reroute to those with delta waves right now | 01:19 |
| de-facto | so why not vaccinate less in germany and more in portugal and spain? | 01:19 |
| de-facto | i think that would be a good idea for all of eu | 01:20 |
| nixonix | there was some vaccine transport between countries during winter, estonia and acouple of other eastern european countries got more from those countries that participated. i think austria was one that refused | 01:21 |
| de-facto | we need to contain the delta wave, everything that is required for that must be done, regardless of the price | 01:21 |
| nixonix | now estonia is behind, but might be that popularity isnt good and its slowed down there, the difference is so big | 01:21 |
| de-facto | yes i think soon we will reach that point where supply outperforms demand | 01:22 |
| nixonix | its hard to prove, when youd need to collect all the doses from all the areas. but the differencies keep getting wider, so theres something shady going on... | 01:22 |
| nixonix | information of all the doses delivered, that is | 01:22 |
| de-facto | right now i could book an mRNA vaccine at my place | 01:22 |
| LjL | nixonix, well, i accept that it may be hard to prove, but in that case please discuss the issue without accusations of being "guilty" | 01:23 |
| de-facto | so supply is there, but that only is possible since a few days now | 01:23 |
| nixonix | i would say that, if i was guilty | 01:23 |
| LjL | yes, i totally single-handedly bought more vaccines for italy, you got me | 01:23 |
| LjL | nixonix, just here https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/numeri-vaccini-italia-mondo/#vaccini-per-regione in the "% DOSI SOMMIN." column you can see that between the "best" and the "worst" region, there is almost a 7% difference. and most regions are storing around 10% as "sides". so why exactly couldn't this differ more for other countries? | 01:26 |
| de-facto | i think those vaccination curves will look like logistic functions, those stretched S-shapes bending upwards at the start, then having a linear part and finally going into saturation hence bending the other way on becoming constant at their end | 01:27 |
| LjL | https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/vaccinazioni-mondo/#bar-chart-race Spain, which had fewer people vaccinated according to OWID, is now picking up more speed, while Italy is slowing down. so maybe Spain just took more time to use their doses? | 01:28 |
| nixonix | areal differencies balance each other out, inside the countries. between countries, i dont think there would be differencies of 10% or more, especially when we usually know the shippings for around next 4 weeks | 01:28 |
| LjL | i'm not convinced that just the fact the difference keeps increasing rules out the possibility that it's about doses set aside, or simply not enough doses being able to be administered. the more you scale a system, the more the bad parts scale, too, unless you're good | 01:29 |
| nixonix | and while the doses given per week is somewhat static number, those put on side should also remain somewhat static - like for differencies between countries | 01:29 |
| de-facto | nice dashboard | 01:29 |
| LjL | you say "should" but you don't know | 01:29 |
| LjL | i don't know | 01:29 |
| nixonix | instead its the percentage that seems to be constant 10% or more, so the dose difference just keeps widening | 01:29 |
| nixonix | even the percentages have been widening lately | 01:30 |
| LjL | "when we usually know the shippings for around next 4 weeks" - do we? then we have the shippings for all countries for the past months? | 01:30 |
| de-facto | are even the vaccination delays between 1st and second dose equal in all EU countries? | 01:30 |
| de-facto | i doubt that because they change them also in Germany from time to time | 01:30 |
| LjL | de-facto, no | 01:30 |
| de-facto | quite dynamically actually | 01:30 |
| de-facto | back then when i got my 1st shot it was 6 weeks, afaik they are discussing now 4 weeks etc | 01:30 |
| de-facto | also they got all that shenanigans with mixed doses now, all such will play a big role in doses admistered | 01:31 |
| nixonix | if we as a small country know it usually for the next 4 weeks or so, you guys from large countries should prob know too | 01:31 |
| LjL | do you have an equivalent of the graphs i showed for Finland? or for another country that is doing worse than Italy? where it says which percentages of the doses they got haven't been administered yet? or where it says the total doses delivered for multiple countries? | 01:32 |
| de-facto | so they try to combine the doses delivered to make as many completed vaccinations as soon as possible before the delta wave | 01:32 |
| de-facto | hence they officially recommend after 1st AZ to take an mRNA booster before those 12 weeks | 01:32 |
| LjL | because otherwise we're just talking about hot air. for my country, i've linked to the place that i think has the best data, although i suppose the national github would have them too, mangled somewhere somehow | 01:33 |
| LjL | de-facto, well that's another difference, they're still giving AZ here both as second dose and first dose for older people | 01:33 |
| LjL | all these policies on AZ differ by country so i don't know why the net results wouldn't differ too | 01:33 |
| de-facto | .title https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Kommissionen/STIKO/Empfehlungen/PM_2021-07-01.html | 01:33 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From translate.google.com: Google Translate | 01:33 |
| de-facto | "Communication of the STIKO to COVID-19 vaccination: planting distance and heterologous immunization schedule after primary immunization with Vaxzevria (01.07.2021)" | 01:34 |
| nixonix | just checked, updated last wednesday, as usually they have estimates, not sure number for the next 4 weeks. the shipments now that we dont take az anymore, have been pretty accurate with those estimates | 01:34 |
| LjL | well don't you think maybe "not taking AZ anymore" can cause differences, even above 10%, compared to countries that are still giving AZ? | 01:34 |
| de-facto | .title https://impfdashboard.de/ <-- this is the German vaccination dashboard | 01:35 |
| nixonix | this should use those THL figures: https://twitter.com/bot_fi/status/1411990878437134341 | 01:35 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From impfdashboard.de: COVID-19 Impfdashboard | 01:35 |
| nixonix | yeah, good point. you guys still take those AZ? | 01:35 |
| nixonix | we have them in store the amount they estimated is enough for 2nd doses, and dont give them anymore as 1st | 01:36 |
| de-facto | actually speed is decelerating in Germany | 01:37 |
| LjL | nixonix, yes, we do, my parents just got their second AZ dose | 01:37 |
| LjL | and they said there were many elderly people there waiting for their first | 01:38 |
| LjL | de-facto, it's decelerating in Italy too. unfortunately also in France which wasn't doing too well to begin with | 01:38 |
| LjL | but good that it's accelerating in Spain since they aren't doing well *with the virus* now | 01:39 |
| de-facto | i heard in France they got very skeptical population in terms of vaccinations, so maybe they got problems with demand? | 01:39 |
| LjL | also btw, there is an "internal market" of vaccines within the EU that they negotiated on, and which is allowed. you can say "nah i'm leaving these AZ doses for now, someone else can take them" if you don't think you're going to use them, for some reason or another. although countries with more cases aren't *entitled* to more vaccines, it can happen on a voluntary basis per the EU thing | 01:40 |
| de-facto | sometimes i think some politicians may think like, well a Delta wave may be a good motivation, at least i heard Johnson indicating something like that in the speech i linked earlier | 01:40 |
| LjL | 8. Who decides how many vaccines a Member State gets? | 01:41 |
| LjL | Member States indicate early on in the negotiation phase with a company if they are interested in a particular vaccine and what quantity they would want to buy. | 01:41 |
| LjL | Once the contract is concluded, the vaccines are allocated according to a distribution key, based on the size of the population. So Member States receive vaccines under the same conditions – on a pro-rata basis, at the same price. | 01:41 |
| LjL | Adjustments of quantities of vaccines between Member States are possible, according to their needs. For instance, a Member State may decide not to buy additional vaccines from the options negotiated, in which case other Member States can take over those options and buy more of that particular vaccine. | 01:42 |
| nixonix | i meant as a 1st dose still? we are still giving it as 2nd - i thing germany stopped it too way back. denmarks stopped too. not sure about belgium, spain etc that also seem to have magically high vaccine dose numbers | 01:42 |
| nixonix | think | 01:42 |
| LjL | yes, we're also giving it as a first dose, to people older than 60 | 01:43 |
| de-facto | yeah and there are differences in the national vaccination strategies, hence also implemented in the boundaries allowed by those contracts | 01:43 |
| nixonix | ok, then you might not be cheating. also your difference was only about 5% or so to eu average | 01:43 |
| nixonix | only meaning italy there | 01:43 |
| de-facto | no they give AZ in Germany still, but with mRNA second afaik | 01:43 |
| de-facto | also in the elderly | 01:43 |
| nixonix | ah ok | 01:44 |
| de-facto | it may be one of the best schemes | 01:44 |
| de-facto | (if we get the efficacy data) | 01:44 |
| LjL | on the other hand they've banned AZ in Italy for people below 60 after a controversial death | 01:44 |
| nixonix | maybe, at least for ab levels they seem to get a bit higher mixing them | 01:44 |
| nixonix | in uk with their intervals | 01:44 |
| LjL | so people below 60 who need a second dose will get Pfizer/Moderna even if they got AZ as first | 01:45 |
| LjL | but people above 60 will get a second AZ if they got a first AZ, and they still can get a first AZ | 01:45 |
| nixonix | how is it with aspirations in italy and uk? | 01:45 |
| LjL | my parents really hoped they could get mRNA as second but they couldn't | 01:45 |
| de-facto | yeah no AZ in the young here, so above 60 its priming with AZ and boosting with BNT or such | 01:45 |
| LjL | aspiration is not done here afaik | 01:45 |
| nixonix | i need to check uk, they seem to have less those thrombosis problems. maybe they aspirate there | 01:46 |
| nixonix | if its the reason, but could be | 01:46 |
| nixonix | or part of reason | 01:46 |
| nixonix | although it seems healthcare officials dont think so, making it less likely imo | 01:46 |
| de-facto | i will just tell them do aspirate on my booster, asking them friendly worked just fine last time | 01:46 |
| nixonix | planning to do the same for my 2nd | 01:47 |
| de-facto | but per default they dont do it here | 01:47 |
| de-facto | here its given by real MDs so they know how to aspirate | 01:48 |
| LjL | which would make me doubt aspiration is done in the UK since many of the vaccinators there are *not* MDs | 01:49 |
| nixonix | uk guidance: There is no need to pull back on the plunger (aspirate) before the plunger is depressed to release the vaccine into the muscle because there are no large blood vessels at the recommended injection sites | 01:49 |
| nixonix | ok, i take back the cheating accusation because those az numbers effect isnt clear | 01:49 |
| nixonix | but you are not all clear yet! ill be watching | 01:50 |
| de-facto | yeah Campbell went nuts over it, almost slamming Grays Anatomy onto his webcam about it | 01:50 |
| de-facto | showing there are vessels in the deltoid | 01:50 |
| nixonix | md's give vaccinations in germany? | 01:51 |
| de-facto | yep | 01:51 |
| de-facto | brave ones i guess, they answer the exact same questions 100 times a day or such? | 01:51 |
| nixonix | jesus christ. they sit there in large vaccination centers all day? hordes of doctors | 01:52 |
| de-facto | yes | 01:52 |
| de-facto | and even give patients the opportunity to ask medical questions in privacy about the vaccination | 01:52 |
| de-facto | actually i think its required by law | 01:52 |
| de-facto | that patients are informed properly | 01:52 |
| nixonix | i tried to keep the talk minimal, to save their time (nurses here). but i had to ask about the syringe that was on the table, that is new, not used :) | 01:53 |
| de-facto | and they take that *very* seriously, i think informing could not have been done any better than they did in the vaccination center there | 01:53 |
| de-facto | kudos to them, they really do a good job there | 01:54 |
| LjL | nixonix, we get one MD checking our questionnaire, deciding which vaccine to use, and asking us any question (and we can ask question too), then when that's done, we get another MD doing the actual vaccination | 01:56 |
| nixonix | 15 mins wait here, because the anaphylaxis risk. i wonder whats the percentage that takes more than that | 01:56 |
| LjL | i got a complete idiot for the former, who i even found out later (by googling) had been suspended for malpractice | 01:56 |
| de-facto | 15m here too, i waited 30m :D | 01:56 |
| LjL | he took forever to do everything. but other people were in and out of there within like three minutes | 01:56 |
| LjL | nixonix, i was yelled at by a military lady that i couldn't leave ONE MINUTE SOONER than the time written on my ticket, and SHE'D BE WATCHING | 01:57 |
| LjL | (she lied, she wasn't watching) | 01:57 |
| de-facto | haha wow really? | 01:58 |
| LjL | anyway they could put a TV or something in the room where people wait 15 minutes, instead of just the clocks | 01:58 |
| nixonix | here it may vary depending on size of region etc, but i was on the largest center probably in the country, ppl before dore telling to have medical care card and/or id ready, then keep walking, more after door asking couple questions and showing the card, then keep walking, were guided to booth, never stopping the walk | 01:58 |
| LjL | de-facto, yeah but it wasn't entirely serious, she was fooling with me | 01:58 |
| nixonix | it took a few minutes and i was sitting and phone in hand | 01:58 |
| nixonix | for that 15 min | 01:58 |
| LjL | yeah well i guess phones replace big TV screens for most people these days | 01:59 |
| LjL | anyway the experience from people in the UK is more like "you walk in, you get jabbed, you walk out with someone giving you a pamphlet about your jab" | 01:59 |
| LjL | they apparently don't even make you wait 15 minutes if you got AZ, only Pfizer | 01:59 |
| nixonix | they still use az a lot in uk? how bout other eu? | 02:01 |
| nixonix | (uk not eu, tho) | 02:01 |
| nixonix | we didnt take any jnj. other eu? need to know for my cheater revelation project... | 02:02 |
| LjL | J&J is used here | 02:02 |
| nixonix | jnj as a first, then mrna, could be the best combo - if not in risk for thrombosis or thrombocytopenia | 02:02 |
| LjL | it's mostly used for people who had COVID, though | 02:03 |
| nixonix | ok. italy is officially clear now | 02:03 |
| de-facto | here it was in a exhibition hall, put walls for rooms inside it (without ceiling), first guest list at entering the area, then separating primer/booster, then registering with insurance card and getting asked generic questions, getting printouts informing be about every bit of Moderna vaccine, then watching a video about it (maybe for people that cant read?), then waiting in front of a room for individual questions with a MD (that signed my yellow | 02:03 |
| de-facto | WHO booklet, i singed the papers informing me about all the risks and details and that i want the vaccine), then waiting again in front of a second room for injections, while MD is injecting me a second guy put in info into computer and gluing the batch number into my WHO booklet, then 15 waiting (i photographed all the papers i signed during that time), then at exit they collected everything and put it into storage, me going away with the primer | 02:03 |
| de-facto | injection and the entry in the yellow WHO booklet | 02:03 |
| LjL | and the UK is definitely still using AZ and they're definitely still having it as a strategic asset | 02:03 |
| de-facto | i guess now they provide a digital cert (i asked about it everywhere but back then on 1st of June it was not ready yet) | 02:03 |
| LjL | look here http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom;South%20Africa&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&leftTrim=400&rightTrim=2 - with all the bad things i may say about AZ, and vaccines in general that are already almost ineffective for the Delta variant, and all my pessimism, and worrying... which of these two countries, with a very similar case curve, has a lot of deaths, and which one doesn't? | 02:04 |
| LjL | de-facto, i don't know what that yellow WHO booklet is by the way, i have no such thing :P | 02:04 |
| nixonix | we book the time in internet (those that cant, can call too), and theres all the information. so no need for chit chat, just stick it in shoulder and go with the vacc card | 02:05 |
| LjL | we also book online | 02:05 |
| LjL | that doesn't mean there is no need for reassurance and/or making sure you have no medical conditions that could affect the vaccine or vice versa | 02:05 |
| de-facto | LjL, https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impfausweis | 02:05 |
| LjL | people normally talk to a doctor before being injected some shit | 02:05 |
| LjL | if it isn't happening, it's not because you're more efficient, it's just because it's a weird emergency | 02:06 |
| LjL | what annoyed me was the needless bureaucracy though | 02:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Cyprus: +787 cases (now 78809), +1 deaths (now 380) since 23 hours ago | 02:07 |
| de-facto | yes South Africa is below 1% vaccinations | 02:07 |
| LjL | de-facto, i dunno if i have that somewhere, i have never travelled outside of the EU. but certainly no one asked me for it | 02:08 |
| de-facto | its standard here | 02:08 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.smh.com.au/national/rise-in-rare-clotting-cases-drove-difficult-call-on-astrazeneca-vaccine-20210618-p5826p.html | 02:09 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.smh.com.au: AstraZeneca vaccine: Rising instances of rare clotting disorder compel vaccine experts to make ‘difficult’ call | 02:09 |
| de-facto | now people can go with that to any pharmacy and they will issue a digital cert from that over some RKI page afaik | 02:09 |
| nixonix | Professor Macartney said it was initially thought that the rate of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia was about 1 in every 100,000 or 1 in every 200,000 for those in their 50s. “But over time the rate has just steadily climbed. It’s now more like one in 35,000 or 40,000,” she said. | 02:09 |
| nixonix | not all deaths, just a fraction, but nasty anyway | 02:10 |
| de-facto | i hope they double check with the website and correlate batch numbers with health insurance entries or such | 02:10 |
| de-facto | (but i dont know that) | 02:10 |
| de-facto | they do check the ID though | 02:11 |
| nixonix | yeah i think they asked something about allergies when walking past. might have been a question when doing online booking too, but not sure | 02:11 |
| nixonix | and they asked somethign else too, maybe for travelling and possibly about previous sars2 infection | 02:12 |
| nixonix | i just answered "the same as those before me", whatever they were | 02:12 |
| LjL | de-facto, they had already obtained all our mobile numbers (which are apparently required to get a vaccine here, not sure if there is a way to book without one) so when the green pass came into being, they sent an SMS with the code to create it even to people who had got the vaccine months before | 02:13 |
| nixonix | not sure if saw this earlier: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-breaks-up-fake-eu-covid-pass-schemes-2021-07-03/ | 02:13 |
| LjL | nixonix, no, but i heard of "youngsters" sharing QR codes and selling/buying them | 02:14 |
| LjL | they are meant to be checked against an ID | 02:14 |
| LjL | if you check it without an ID well you're just checking someone who could belong to anyone | 02:14 |
| nixonix | i also saw either tweet or article link, i was going to paste here but coundt find anymore, in italian - i think it was some expert estimate, mentioning R being 8-10 | 02:14 |
| LjL | but people outside cinemas or clubs probably won't care and will just want the most people in | 02:15 |
| LjL | yikes | 02:15 |
| LjL | but our numbers are barely going up right now | 02:15 |
| nixonix | also i saw another one in english, using 6-10 | 02:15 |
| nixonix | previous estimates have been around 5-8, so maybe those were just alarmists, if there are not new updated estimates recently | 02:16 |
| de-facto | afaik if they would try to falsify such information here in Germany they could go into jail for that, imho not worth trying that | 02:17 |
| de-facto | and not even small amount of jail, something liek 5 years if i remember correctly | 02:17 |
| nixonix | lots of interesting new stuff in tweets i saw earlier, but havent read them all yet, opened for reading. ill prob paste here some of them here next couple days | 02:17 |
| de-facto | i think its kinda hard to estimate R0 from an assumed R0 of Wuhan and then multiplying that with factors of quotients of Rt's for variants | 02:20 |
| de-facto | or how woudl they do that? | 02:20 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/opinion/coronavirus-lab.html https://archive.is/RMXYY | 02:20 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nytimes.com: Opinion | Where Did the Coronavirus Come From? What We Already Know Is Troubling. - The New York Times | 02:20 |
| nixonix | yeah the wuhan variant R0 being just something to compare to. and for those older viruses, their estimated R0 varies a lot, so sars2 numbers arent very comparable to them (like measles i think ive seen 12-30) | 02:22 |
| nixonix | and that old guardian article had lots of R's wrong, and deadlinesses too (differing from later estimates ive seen) | 02:23 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/ng-interactive/2014/oct/15/visualised-how-ebola-compares-to-other-infectious-diseases | 02:23 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.theguardian.com: Visualised: how Ebola compares to other infectious diseases | News | The Guardian | 02:23 |
| de-facto | but i think those direct comparisons are quite accurate, e.g. ALpha and Delta being present in one population at the same time each at ~50% share | 02:24 |
| de-facto | then comparing both Rt | 02:24 |
| de-facto | last time i did that i got Rt(B.1.617.2) ~ 1.45 Rt(B.1.1.7) in Germany for late June | 02:25 |
| nixonix | ah, petrovski has new paper out on binding affinities for different animal ace2's - if you remember him from the last summer | 02:25 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-92388-5 | 02:25 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nature.com: In silico comparison of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein-ACE2 binding affinities across species and implications for virus origin | Scientific Reports | 02:25 |
| nixonix | .title https://ny.chalkbeat.org/2021/6/23/22547814/all-classrooms-to-have-2-air-purifiers-next-year-new-york-city-officials-pledge | 02:27 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From ny.chalkbeat.org: All classrooms to have 2 air purifiers next year, New York City officials pledge - Chalkbeat New York | 02:27 |
| de-facto | winter would be good | 02:28 |
| nixonix | i have _heard_ that air systems should be pretty good in finland compared to most europe, which has been suggested as one reason why easy measures have been enough in finland (before this indian variant anyway) | 02:28 |
| de-facto | Delta is much more transmissible over the air they said in all the podcasts | 02:29 |
| nixonix | now they are crazy with them hepas and co2 meters. maybe they will help, but doing substantial changes to ventilation is expensive and slow, and just adding some hepa unit or co2 meter doesnt work too well | 02:30 |
| de-facto | even enough that one would have to assume transmission in soccer stadiums or crowded places outdoors where people think they would not have to distance | 02:30 |
| de-facto | yeah air hygiene is a very very good idea | 02:31 |
| nixonix | it might work, if you are cool with cold rooms, slamming doors etc | 02:31 |
| nixonix | and wasted energy | 02:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +1064 cases (now 1.7 million) since 21 hours ago — France: +32 deaths (now 111267) since 21 hours ago — United Kingdom: +9 deaths (now 128359) since 21 hours ago | 02:32 |
| de-facto | well invested into avoiding hospitalizations | 02:32 |
| de-facto | hmm earlier with listening to Johnsons speech for UK i asked myself if they really are even that sad about their increasing incidence there | 02:33 |
| nixonix | petrovski mentioned (i didnt read this yet - but it looks like normies going crazy now with lab origin, now that trump is out): | 02:35 |
| nixonix | .title https://unherd.com/2021/06/beijings-useful-idiots/ | 02:35 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From unherd.com: Beijing's useful idiots - UnHerd | 02:35 |
| de-facto | if vaccinations lower the factor between fatalities and infections those infections may also be a natural immunization for those that dont take the vaccine (and also dont care about distancing), and a motivation for the undecided to go for it to avoid infections | 02:35 |
| de-facto | i that is ethical to do, i dont know, but it may be the effect of the Delta increase there, at least in parts | 02:36 |
| de-facto | but maybe that idea is too crazy, and its just me associating the wrong things when listening to what they say (they never said anything like that directly) | 02:37 |
| de-facto | the problem with that is, allowing incidence to go up means allowing it to get out of control, trusting that it wont evade vaccine immunity although constantly selected for it | 02:39 |
| de-facto | so if above would be their strategy behind closed doors, it essentially is playing with the fire | 02:39 |
| de-facto | i guess we will see, i do hope the best for UK | 02:40 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.ny-engineers.com/blog/ny-state-now-requires-air-filters-for-coronavirus-in-shopping-malls | 02:41 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.ny-engineers.com: NY State Now Requires Air Filters for Coronavirus in Shopping Malls | 02:41 |
| de-facto | that is very good, trying out new biosecurity concepts that are universal enough to also deal with other pathogens | 02:42 |
| de-facto | we need more of that and certainly data for comparing methods | 02:42 |
| de-facto | this is using the opportunity to evaluate such concepts and how to implement them properly, testing them out in reality in the pandemic | 02:43 |
| de-facto | i hope they do collect as much data on that as possible, also compare it against parts without such filters etc pp | 02:43 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1409632091436838917 | 02:43 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.authorea.com/users/421653/articles/527590-ffp3-respirators-protect-healthcare-workers-against-infection-with-sars-cov-2?commit=e567e67501cd6ee0dd1a6e8e4acdf2c4fd70e0ec | 02:44 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.authorea.com: FFP3 respirators protect healthcare workers against infection with SARS-CoV-2 - Authorea | 02:44 |
| nixonix | https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/06/28/use-of-airborne-precautions-for-covid-19-in-healthcare-settings/ | 02:45 |
| nixonix | "A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials "did not reduce all-cause mortality, length of stay or viral clearance in RCTs in #COVID19 patients with mostly mild disease. Ivermectin is not a viable option to treat COVID-19 patients." | 02:47 |
| nixonix | .title https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab591/6310839#.YNomw8cj-yQ.twitter | 02:47 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From academic.oup.com: Ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials | Clinical Infectious Diseases | Oxford Academic | 02:47 |
| nixonix | couple thread for those interested (ivermectin): https://twitter.com/GermHunterMD/status/1409599368110383104 https://twitter.com/boulware_dr/status/1409612078340575239 https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1409647567168675845 | 02:50 |
| nixonix | threads | 02:50 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canada-s-real-death-toll-from-covid-19-may-far-exceed-official-tally-report-1.5489595 | 02:52 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.ctvnews.ca: Canada's real death toll from COVID-19 may far exceed official tally: report | CTV News | 02:52 |
| nixonix | and for those into conspiratory lab theories (which are cool now, unlike 2020), check also those couple MIT technology review links i pasted earlier today | 02:54 |
| nixonix | ...torial | 02:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Russian Orthodox Church: "Refusing to be vaccinated against Covid-19 is a ’sin’ " → https://is.gd/S9zFhs | 03:13 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iceland: +10 cases (now 6664) since 3 days ago | 03:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Bolivia cancels AstraZeneca vaccine purchase contract due to non-compliance → https://is.gd/JZouBr | 04:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Fauci: More than 99% of people who died from COVID-19 in June were not vaccinated → https://is.gd/FeUlgt | 04:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Israel sees drop in Pfizer vaccine protection against infections, still strong in severe illness → https://is.gd/qS9FW0 | 05:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +1855 cases (now 1.1 million), +5 deaths (now 25190) since 2 days ago | 06:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Covid-19: How do citrus fruits boost immunity? → https://is.gd/mVINvB | 06:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Canada, US are easing pandemic border-crossing restrictions → https://is.gd/Pz5cf3 | 07:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for England, United Kingdom: +23052 cases (now 4.3 million), +7 deaths (now 112769) since 23 hours ago — Catalonia, Spain: +12385 cases (now 670410), +2 deaths (now 14741) since 3 days ago — Lima, Peru: +8031 cases (now 911402), +610 deaths (now 86605) since 11 days ago — Arequipa, Peru: +5903 cases (now 102772), +477 deaths (now 9020) since 11 days ago | 07:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: No mandatory quarantine for fully vaccinated travellers to Dominica from Wednesday → https://is.gd/QFu51N | 07:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: After Palestinians reject deal, Israel to send 700,000 vaccines to South Korea → https://is.gd/E5JHlw | 08:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +34703 cases (now 30.6 million), +530 deaths (now 403106) since 15 hours ago | 08:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | July 06, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/Drq63B | 09:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Puerto Rico: +106 cases (now 123255) since 23 hours ago | 10:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Fiji: +636 cases (now 7149), +3 deaths (now 36) since 20 hours ago — Arunachal Pradesh, India: +426 cases (now 37531), +2 deaths (now 179) since a day ago — Germany: +261 cases (now 3.7 million) since 20 hours ago | 10:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Japan to ship another 1.1M AstraZeneca doses to Taiwan → https://is.gd/18HQPL | 11:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Brunei: +4 cases (now 266) since 2 days ago | 11:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Germany loosens travel restrictions for the UK and Portugal: Germany rescinds its travel ban, allowing vaccinated citizens from 5 new countries to come in without isolating. → https://is.gd/4isMq7 | 11:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Fully jabbed people to be treated differently - Javid: The health secretary is to announce changes to self-isolation for those who have had two jabs. → https://is.gd/ibIZFH | 11:54 |
| zutt | got tested for corona first time today, quite smooth system | 11:56 |
| zutt | -> online questionaire for symptoms -> recommends you to get tested -> authenticate yourself -> select where you want to get tested (selected drive-through testing) -> drive there, nurse explains the process & verifies who I am while preparing swabs and all done in a minute | 11:58 |
| Krey[m] | What should people in `delta plus` / `echelon` variant area with AZ vaccine do? | 12:00 |
| Krey[m] | re-vaccinate or something? | 12:00 |
| Krey[m] | assuming it being being true that the AZ is not affective to prevent severe symptoms and death on that variant? | 12:01 |
| genera | zutt, where? i think $here you can get 1 test per day without preconditions | 12:01 |
| genera | (except not being in quarantäne) | 12:01 |
| zutt | Finland, I don't think theres limitations here | 12:01 |
| zutt | should get sms/call with results within 24 hours (in northern Finland you apparently get results in just 2 hours after testing, or 15 minutes if positive) | 12:02 |
| zutt | but yeah, the symptom questionaire was a bit silly, I think it's made for people who are unsure wether they should or should not get tested, not for limiting people who want to get tested | 12:05 |
| zutt | just followed my city guides to the questionaire :P | 12:05 |
| de-facto | in Germany we just scan a QR code from the test with the Corona Warn App, then we get the result as soon as its available (took about 8h iirc) | 12:26 |
| de-facto | Krey[m], not sure, afaik Delta+K417N may be some more immune evasive, do we have data on specific vaccine efficacy for that mutant? | 12:27 |
| de-facto | i guess updating vaccinations (with same/other vaccine, with same/other spike signature) should be always possible | 12:28 |
| zutt | ah, we have some app for that as well, I haven't really paid attention to those | 12:34 |
| zutt | ah, apparently it's connected to the "corona blinker" application, https://koronavilkku.fi/en/ guessing that it's quite identical to your corona warn app | 12:35 |
| zutt | ooh, https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/travel-during-coronavirus-pandemic/mobile-contact-tracing-apps-eu-member-states_en | 12:37 |
| zutt | swedes at it again: "Sweden: The deployment of a contact tracing app is not foreseen." :D | 12:42 |
| zutt | %cases sweden | 12:42 |
| Brainstorm | zutt: In Sweden, there have been 1.1 million confirmed cases (10.6% of the population) and 14631 deaths (1.3% of cases) as of 3 days ago. 11.1 million tests were performed (9.9% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.4% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden for time series data. | 12:42 |
| zutt | %cases Finland | 12:43 |
| Brainstorm | zutt: In Finland, there have been 96791 confirmed cases (1.8% of the population) and 973 deaths (1.0% of cases) as of 32 minutes ago. 5.5 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Finland for time series data. | 12:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Open your mind without leaving your sofa: As we head towards the end of term and the summer holidays, many of you will have had electives or other travel plans cancelled as a result of the ongoing pandemic (doi:10.1136/bmj.n1577). With a... → https://is.gd/sbP6Td | 12:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Leaked memo about Sinovac vaccine’s efficacy raises concern in Thailand → https://is.gd/ref2Pi | 12:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Mask related acne: alternative PPE for facial dermatoses: Although evidence relating to facial dermatoses associated with the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) has been limited during the pandemic,1 these associations have previously been well... → https://is.gd/1alfwN | 13:27 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Laos: +56 cases (now 2356) since a day ago — Germany: +278 cases (now 3.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 13:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pfizer vaccine efficacy appears to drop to 64% in Israel amid rampant spread of Indian Delta variant → https://is.gd/o1fG1v | 13:47 |
| de-facto | zutt, do they sell rapid antigen tests in supermarkets in Finland? | 13:49 |
| zutt | not sure if the larger stores sell them, but I've been told Lidl is selling them here now | 13:50 |
| rpifan | nie | 13:50 |
| zutt | 30€ per kit, 5 tests or something? was quite bit more expensive than in Germany :P | 13:51 |
| de-facto | nice, i think that is very important, people able to buy them anonymously and the test being affordable, just to lower the threshold for getting tested as much as possible | 13:51 |
| zutt | yeah | 13:51 |
| de-facto | i paid 4€ for 5 tests in Rossmann | 13:51 |
| de-facto | they lowered prices a lot in the last month | 13:52 |
| de-facto | before it also was like 30€ for 5 tests iirc | 13:52 |
| de-facto | i wish i had data about how many are sold, but i dont | 13:53 |
| de-facto | would be interesting what the demand for those would be | 13:53 |
| de-facto | there was a paper estimating those rapid antigen tests lowering incidence by as much as 40%, thats just as much as seasonality or as much as delta increased over alpha | 13:54 |
| de-facto | data in early 2021 | 13:55 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +31189 cases (now 2.3 million), +728 deaths (now 61868) since 23 hours ago — Nepal: +1718 cases (now 648085), +15 deaths (now 9263) since 23 hours ago | 14:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iran: +16080 cases (now 3.3 million), +146 deaths (now 85095) since a day ago — Guam: +21 cases (now 8394) since 3 days ago | 14:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Coronavirus: England’s vaccinated adults to avoid quarantine after coronavirus contact → https://is.gd/DzEttE | 14:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: PIP: Opinion/decision on a Paediatric investigation plan (PIP): Anti-neonatal Fe receptor human monoclonal antibody {M281), decision type: , therapeutic area: , PIP number: P/0363/2020 → https://is.gd/B5rX7w | 15:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israel to ship 700,000 Pfizer doses to South Korea in swap deal → https://is.gd/sT0YO4 | 15:31 |
| DefiantN | My arm is rather sore from the 2nd pfzier shot. Will exercising the muscle help or make it worse? | 15:33 |
| de-facto | i think slightly moving it (without load, hence no weight lifting or such) may increase metabolism in the muscle, so possibly make it regenerate faster, but could that also increase inflammation? | 15:39 |
| Juerd | DefiantN: I got the advice to keep using the muscle, but not to put heavy load on it. | 15:40 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/expect/after.html | 15:41 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.cdc.gov: Possible Side Effects After Getting a COVID-19 Vaccine | CDC | 15:41 |
| de-facto | "To reduce pain and discomfort where you got the shot": "Apply a clean, cool, wet washcloth over the area." "Use or exercise your arm." | 15:42 |
| de-facto | it will go away sooner or later, so its only temporarily discomfort | 15:43 |
| de-facto | also make sure to drink enough water and avoid high pulse rate scenarios for at least 1-2 weeks | 15:45 |
| de-facto | good food and sleep may be beneficial for building up immunity | 15:45 |
| DefiantN | I'll try some light exercises. | 15:46 |
| de-facto | yeah start slowly and then pause a few hours, then observe, if ok do it again, etc | 15:46 |
| DefiantN | I never heard anything about high pulse rate scenarios | 15:46 |
| de-facto | i thnk its a good idea to move it | 15:46 |
| de-facto | there are the (very rare) scenarios of heart muscle inflammation (especially in young men after 2nd shot), so avoiding load on the heart may be a good idea | 15:47 |
| de-facto | also drinking enough (water) and moving (e.g. going for a walk, not run) may lower the risk for thrombosis (also very rare) | 15:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +11525 cases (now 966406), +163 deaths (now 15392) since a day ago — Iraq: +8818 cases (now 1.4 million), +31 deaths (now 17376) since 23 hours ago — Libya: +1070 cases (now 196894), +2 deaths (now 3215) since a day ago — Faroe Is.: +9 cases (now 793) since a day ago | 16:06 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/regierung-virusvariantengebiete-101.html <- Stupid German government takes back restrictions | 16:11 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.tagesschau.de: Beschränkungen werden gelockert: Leichtere Einreise aus Portugal und Großbritannien | tagesschau.de | 16:11 |
| de-facto | .tr <de Die Bundesregierung lockert die wegen der Verbreitung besonders ansteckender Corona-Varianten verhängten Einreisebeschränkungen für Portugal, Großbritannien und Nordirland, Russland, Indien und Nepal. Am Mittwoch werden die fünf Länder vom Virusvariantengebiet zum Hochinzidenzgebiet zurückgestuft, wie das Robert Koch-Institut mitteilte. | 16:11 |
| Brainstorm | TypeError: argument of type 'NoneType' is not iterable (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/natlang.py", line 362, in langcode) | 16:11 |
| de-facto | aha | 16:11 |
| de-facto | "The federal government is easing the entry restrictions imposed on Portugal, Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Russia, India and Nepal because of the spread of particularly contagious corona variants. On Wednesday, the five countries will be downgraded from the virus variant area to the high incidence area, as announced by the Robert Koch Institute." | 16:11 |
| de-facto | i think they are trying hard to rise incidence in Germany :( | 16:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Judge gives permission for NHS trust to remove life support from patient: A High Court judge has given permission for an NHS trust to remove a 52 year old man with covid-19 from life support and allow him to die.1The man, named only as KM, had deep vein thrombosis as a... → https://is.gd/bAvIjp | 16:12 |
| de-facto | "people. For those who have been completely vaccinated and those who have recovered, the quarantine obligation is no longer applicable, for everyone else it is shortened." | 16:12 |
| de-facto | hmm let me try again | 16:13 |
| de-facto | "This means that entry into Germany is possible again for all groups of people. For those who have been completely vaccinated and those who have recovered, the quarantine obligation is no longer applicable, for everyone else it is shortened." | 16:13 |
| de-facto | so their assumption is vaccinated wont import any cases or start new chains, demonstrating they either dont understand the word breakthrough or they intend to import cases. both disqualify them for their position in management of a country. | 16:15 |
| de-facto | what for do we need international passenger traveling? it is THE one source of all our problems | 16:16 |
| de-facto | people want to be entertained and have fun. well how exciting will it be when incidence rises again and we need lockdowns? sounds like fun? | 16:17 |
| de-facto | i hope they loose the elections big time for their failure to manage the crisis. | 16:17 |
| Raf[m] | <Brainstorm "New from Reddit (test): CoronaVi"> I wonder if that 99% stat is hyperbole because the numbers in UK are very different | 16:21 |
| de-facto | i just dont get it, the population had a hard fight and successfully wrestled down Alpha, now government punishes them for that by ensuring the import of Delta goes as fast as possible | 16:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: First Opinion: Opinion: Why aren’t diseases like HIV and malaria, which still kill millions of people a year, called pandemics? → https://is.gd/ZVmhZL | 16:23 |
| de-facto | why cant they allow us at least a few weeks of peace in low incidence? | 16:23 |
| de-facto | UK got a weekly incidence of 230/100k, Germany currently only 5/100k, so thats 46 times lower, assuming symptomatic infections can also infect others, if BioNTech/Pfizer BNT162b2 got an efficacy of 88% against symptomatic infections with Delta, that would be lowering relative risk to 1/(1-0.88)~1/8 hence 46/8 ~ 5.75 times as much attack rates in vaccinated travelers from UK than background incidence in Germany | 16:29 |
| de-facto | so they are at least 6-fold wrong with their assumption there (i say at least because there also are asymptomatic infections capable of transmission, hence in reality its even more than the lower limit i calculated above) | 16:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bhutan: +41 cases (now 2210) since 23 hours ago | 16:31 |
| de-facto | i refuse to believe they do that on purpose, but how else can that be interpreted? | 16:31 |
| Raf[m] | "As the Delta variant of the coronavirus surges through the U.K., almost half of the country’s recent Covid-19 deaths are of people who have been vaccinated. " https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-vaccinated-people-are-dying-of-covid-19-heres-why-scientists-arent-surprised-11625227200 | 16:34 |
| xrogaan | got my second shot | 16:39 |
| xrogaan | Stuff I learned: afebryl apparently has some anti-inflammatory. That's weird because it's not in the list of stuff contained within. | 16:40 |
| xrogaan | paracetamol, vitamin C and aspirin. Those ain't anti-inflammatory. | 16:40 |
| de-facto | sources for current incidence today 2021-07-06 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://corona.rki.de/ and BNT162b2 efficacy against Delta https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.22.21257658v1 | 16:41 |
| de-facto | afebryl is that paracetamol? | 16:42 |
| de-facto | afaik that is lowering fever, but should not be taken as precaution, only if necessary (and no more than 1g each 6h to prevent liver damage) | 16:43 |
| de-facto | Aspirin may lower coagulation and also inflammation to some degree but never should be taken on empty stomach | 16:44 |
| xrogaan | aspirin can lower inflammation? | 16:46 |
| de-facto | i am not sure, but i think it has some anti-inflammatory properties | 16:46 |
| xrogaan | It's not marketed as anti-inflammatory though. | 16:47 |
| de-facto | but dont take any of those if not necessary | 16:47 |
| xrogaan | No, I had some grippal symptom after the first shot. Nothing too bad. Pain in the joints and such. | 16:47 |
| xrogaan | And the tip of my nose was sensible, for some reason. | 16:48 |
| de-facto | .title https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19597002/ | 16:48 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: Effects of low-dose aspirin on acute inflammatory responses in humans - PubMed | 16:48 |
| de-facto | interesting, never heard of the tip of nose becoming sensible | 16:48 |
| xrogaan | Nice, thanks. | 16:49 |
| xrogaan | well, sore I guess? I don't know the proper term in english. | 16:50 |
| de-facto | published on https://www.jimmunol.org/content/183/3/2089 | 16:50 |
| xrogaan | Like a mosquito bite you leave alone. If you touch it, you feel it. | 16:50 |
| de-facto | yeah but afaik it does not mean second time it will happen again or such | 16:50 |
| de-facto | im gonna get my Moderna booster next week on Tuesday | 16:54 |
| de-facto | so i will count as "fully vaccinated" in July still, yay :) | 16:54 |
| de-facto | just in time for the Delta wave they are working on so hard | 16:55 |
| xrogaan | moderna is pfitzer right? | 16:56 |
| de-facto | nope | 16:56 |
| de-facto | but both are mRNA, so more or less the same result | 16:56 |
| xrogaan | alright | 16:56 |
| xrogaan | They blame Delta on football here. | 16:56 |
| xrogaan | Told my father that it is incorrect, the blame is on stupid people. | 16:57 |
| de-facto | BioNTech/Pfizer is 30µg BNT162b2 and modeRNA is 100µg mRNA-1273 both use nucleoside modified messenger RNA (with pseudo-uridine instead of uridine) | 16:57 |
| de-facto | BioNTech developed it in Germany and Moderna developed it in USA | 16:58 |
| de-facto | so despite being quite similar they are more or less independently developed afaik | 16:58 |
| xrogaan | Being in Europe, it make sense to use pfizer over moderna then. | 16:58 |
| de-facto | .title https://github.com/NAalytics/Assemblies-of-putative-SARS-CoV2-spike-encoding-mRNA-sequences-for-vaccines-BNT-162b2-and-mRNA-1273 reverse engineered sequences for both | 16:59 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From github.com: GitHub - NAalytics/Assemblies-of-putative-SARS-CoV2-spike-encoding-mRNA-sequences-for-vaccines-BNT-162b2-and-mRNA-1273: RNA vaccines have become a key tool in moving forward through the challenges [...] | 16:59 |
| de-facto | xrogaan, i am from Germany, i just took what was available at the time they offered it to me | 16:59 |
| xrogaan | isn't that odd? | 17:01 |
| de-facto | i guess there may be more studies about BNT than Moderna, but i still think their results are more or less in the same league, so not too many differences to expect from those two mRNA | 17:01 |
| xrogaan | To be honest, I have no clue as to what they jabbed me with. Told me Pfizer at the moment I took the appointment and never verified it afterward. | 17:02 |
| de-facto | well they did buy from many suppliers, diversifying makes a lot of sence, at time of making the contracts they did not know who will reach market successfully | 17:02 |
| de-facto | xrogaan, you probably got a batch number for your injection | 17:03 |
| xrogaan | paper say "COMIRNATY" | 17:03 |
| de-facto | yeah thats the name for BNT162b2 | 17:03 |
| de-facto | so BioNTech/Pfizer | 17:03 |
| de-facto | xrogaan, very convenient, afaik Israel exclusively used that, so you always can look at how it goes for them with BNT162b2 | 17:05 |
| xrogaan | There is no point in that. I'll see tomorrow if I get a bad experience. | 17:08 |
| LjL-Matrix | Raf: I'm really not sure and these numbers make me worry too. But some considerations: the US has fewer people vaccinated than the UK has, so the balance is going to shift; the US has vaccinated virtually everyone (who they have vaccinated) with mRNA, while the UK made substantial use of AstraZeneca, which is supposedly still "good" at preventing deaths for some measure of "good", but at least less good at preventing infections (honestly, I | 17:09 |
| LjL-Matrix | suspect also deaths); and the Delta variant is rampant in the UK, accounting for I think more than 90% of new infections by now, while the US still likely mostly has previous variants, that are more susceptible to the vaccine | 17:09 |
| LjL-Matrix | Plus I'd consider that the numbers of deaths are overall low in the UK, so there are presumably a few younger people who are unvaccinated but not very likely to die, plus a large number of older people, among which a few will die anyway just because they're many | 17:10 |
| xrogaan | Fewer fully vaccinated? Or in percentage of population? | 17:10 |
| LjL-Matrix | I'm not sure these things fully justify what we're seeing but they need to be taken into account | 17:10 |
| xrogaan | Because the amount of people in the UK must be lower than the amount of people in the USA. | 17:11 |
| de-facto | https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations | 17:11 |
| de-facto | https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=population&hideControls=true&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=BHR~BRA~CHL~FRA~DEU~HUN~IND~ISR~SRB~TUR~GBR~USA~URY~ESP~ITA~ARE~MEX~RUS&Metric=People+vaccinated+%28by+dose%29 | 17:11 |
| xrogaan | in percentage, it's relative then. | 17:13 |
| xrogaan | Logistics aren't the same when you have to vaccinate 300m people | 17:13 |
| xrogaan | To be fair, you'd need to put all of europe combine and compare that to the USA. | 17:13 |
| xrogaan | combined* | 17:13 |
| xrogaan | european union, I mean. | 17:14 |
| xrogaan | And then you'd see that the USA have more people vaccinated. | 17:14 |
| Raf[m] | All good points, I think the delta variant prominence in the US is closer to 10-15%. I also read today that the pfizer effectiveness is at 64% against the delta variant but 94% effective at preventing serious illness. I know pfizer and moderna are the 2 most prominent vaccines in the US. | 17:15 |
| spybert | xrogaan: I wonder if anyone has done a study of vaccination rates versus IQ in western countries? | 17:19 |
| DefiantN | If a vaccine is 64% effective in preventing you from getting a disease, is it around 64% effective at preventing you from spreading it? | 17:20 |
| xrogaan | Has nothing to do with IQ, everything to do with media stories promoting drama. | 17:21 |
| xrogaan | For example, we would read for weeks or months about the clots or thrombosis that the vaccine may be causing. | 17:22 |
| xrogaan | Then every outlet simply stop talking about it, because there was nothing to it. | 17:22 |
| xrogaan | The the brain of the people though, those stories are still echoing which leads to incertainty. | 17:23 |
| xrogaan | uncertainty * | 17:23 |
| xrogaan | is the vaccine safe? Who the fuck knows. | 17:23 |
| xrogaan | DefiantN: what does 64% means? | 17:23 |
| DefiantN | The decreased liklihood on contracting delta with the pfzier vaccine | 17:25 |
| xrogaan | no, what does it means "64% effective"? | 17:26 |
| de-facto | vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infection VE = (ARU - ARV) / ARU = 1 - RR with ARU = cases / unvaccinated and ARV = breakthrough / vaccinated hence relative risk RR = ARV / ARU | 17:26 |
| xrogaan | 64% of what? | 17:26 |
| xrogaan | Ask a random quidam and they probably won't be able to answer. | 17:26 |
| xrogaan | huh | 17:26 |
| DefiantN | 64% of the number of unvaccinated people in the control group that were infected I assume. I didn't do the study | 17:27 |
| xrogaan | so "ask" is a trigger word for spacecraft :P | 17:27 |
| pwr22 | LjL: I know you don't like AZ but I think at this point we've got to admit the UK data shows it is "good enough" even for Delta | 17:27 |
| pwr22 | Which I'm glad to find out | 17:27 |
| pwr22 | I think pretty much every case in the UK now is Delta | 17:28 |
| de-facto | so RR = 1 - VE = 1 - 0.64 = 0.36 = ARV / ARU meaning ARV = RR ARU = 0.36 ARU hence attack rate for vaccinated being lowered to almost 1/3 for symptomatic infections | 17:28 |
| pwr22 | "half of deaths in UK" but we also have "very few deaths" | 17:28 |
| xrogaan | DefiantN: it means that you can still get sick, anybody can provided they get exposed to the disease enough time. | 17:28 |
| pwr22 | So I think we can conclude it does at least offer a decent level of protection | 17:29 |
| de-facto | but the study i linked above states 88% for two doses of BNT162b2 against Delta | 17:29 |
| DefiantN | In western countries, I suspect vaccination has far more to do with which political party you're loyal to. People who were against vaccination are very concerned about thrombosis cause it supports their party. People who are pro vaccination aren't too concerned. | 17:29 |
| pwr22 | Without vaccines we should have a ridiculous daily death count right now | 17:29 |
| pwr22 | As we did in the last "wave" | 17:29 |
| DefiantN | xrogaan, Why are you asking me questions when you're just going to answer them yourself? | 17:29 |
| de-facto | DefiantN, i just calculated it with the number you provided (64%) to illustrate it for that | 17:29 |
| xrogaan | because people keep throwing percentage as if they meant anything. | 17:29 |
| de-facto | the original approval trials had endpoints for their studies as symptomatic infections | 17:30 |
| de-facto | but that was with less aggressive variants, so i assume we never will see 95% again | 17:31 |
| pwr22 | All that said, I do hope that the AZ people will get a booster shot of one of the other vaccines (and vice versa) for improved coverage | 17:31 |
| pwr22 | Even better would be an updated shot targetting the common mutations among the newer variants | 17:32 |
| de-facto | also it was more or less 1 variant back then, now we have to deal with a hydra of many mutants circulating, all a bit different in their own way | 17:32 |
| DefiantN | Here, everyone that got 1 shot of AZ ( most people who got AZ) are getting a 2nd shot of pfzier or moderna. | 17:33 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.08.447308v1 | 17:35 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: The ChAdOx1 vectored vaccine, AZD2816, induces strong immunogenicity against SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 and other variants of concern in preclinical studies | bioRxiv | 17:35 |
| LjL-Matrix | Peter: it offers a decent level of protection but if there are differences with other countries and those other countries don't use AZ then I think it's logical that we could consider AZ one possible culprit... | 17:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Tuesday 06 July 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/ZaW8NR | 17:37 |
| LjL-Matrix | Plus, but separate, I'm concerned that with "good enough" still meaning 30k infections a day, the virus will definitely mutate even further, but maybe it'd do that anyway | 17:37 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.13.439482v1.full | 17:39 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Variant SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines confer broad neutralization as primary or booster series in mice | bioRxiv | 17:39 |
| pwr22 | Sure, but another culprit may be out complete belligerence and ineffective policies in the UK 😛 | 17:39 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.05.21256716v1.full-text | 17:39 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Preliminary Analysis of Safety and Immunogenicity of a SARS-CoV-2 Variant Vaccine Booster | medRxiv | 17:39 |
| pwr22 | I do agree we're on borrowed time here though | 17:40 |
| de-facto | btw out of curiosity, do we have any manufacturers working on delta updates? | 17:40 |
| de-facto | what about lambda? | 17:40 |
| de-facto | Injecting Wuhan-spike, working on Beta-updates, circulating Delta-VoC and expecting Lambda et al as breakthroughs? | 17:42 |
| de-facto | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/chile/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/peru | 17:45 |
| de-facto | hmm maybe Lambda is not fit enough? | 17:45 |
| de-facto | i guess we will see | 17:45 |
| de-facto | https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=C.37 | 17:46 |
| de-facto | .title https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 | 17:47 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From en.wikipedia.org: Variants of SARS-CoV-2 - Wikipedia | 17:47 |
| de-facto | i wonder if vaccine efficacy can be increased by spreading diversity | 17:57 |
| notsungyet | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.29.450356v1.full | 17:57 |
| Brainstorm | notsungyet: From www.biorxiv.org: Thrombocytopenia and splenic platelet directed immune responses after intravenous ChAdOx1 nCov-19 administration | bioRxiv | 17:58 |
| de-facto | hey n :) | 17:58 |
| notsungyet | as i play with odds, i have to say i dont think the lack of aspiration is the reason | 17:58 |
| notsungyet | and even less for those myocardites | 17:58 |
| notsungyet | because just finding out the countries and regions that aspirate and those that dont, and comparing them to prevalence of VIPIT and TTS would tell the answer, and youd need to be really incompetent not to have done that | 18:00 |
| notsungyet | it could still be a partial reason, but not the main reason | 18:00 |
| de-facto | imagining a distribution for the neutralization capability over some metric for diversity of antibodies referenced at origin for wuhan spike: if for any given mutant on that metric the multiplication would be proportional to efficacy and now the phylogenetic tree spreading further apart from original wuhan spike (e.g. center for that distribution for vaccines), would it be beneficial to spread out that distribution to cover most of the currently | 18:00 |
| de-facto | circulating phylogenetic tree? | 18:00 |
| de-facto | example: given a normal distribution for neutralization with wuhan in the center, the variants spread further apart from taht with time, for the same area under the curve (amount of induced antibodies), would it be beneficial to have a lower but broader normal distribution if some variants would already be on the edge of a higher but more localized distribution? | 18:02 |
| de-facto | nixonix thats the first thing i said when the link was suggested, but i never did that, and i dont know if anyone lese did that yet (we all are too lazy i guess) | 18:03 |
| de-facto | *anyone else | 18:03 |
| de-facto | so if we all just think "someone must have done that already" it would be recursion making it independent of reality | 18:04 |
| notsungyet | the odds that nobody would have found it out, are jsut very low | 18:05 |
| notsungyet | wouldnt | 18:05 |
| de-facto | is that so? what if everyone just assumes exactly that? | 18:06 |
| notsungyet | its like if you think that its waste of time to vote, when the chances that your vote would have any effect are 1/10k - what if everybody thought the same? | 18:08 |
| notsungyet | possible, but extremely unlikely | 18:08 |
| de-facto | i disagree, because obviously not many assume there can be a link, otherwise aspiration would have been made mandatory per default already. i think the experts are just stubborn sometimes | 18:11 |
| notsungyet | btw, if you catch some common cold type virus, is it recommended you get the second dose later than eg a week after recovering? thinking about rhinovirus blocking sars2, possibly because of interferon response - so could it reduce the protection of the vaccine? | 18:12 |
| de-facto | but does the vaccine suppress interferon as the original pathogen would be able to do? | 18:12 |
| notsungyet | even original ideas usually arent original. many ppl have thought the same. now millions of researchers studying this virus and epidemic, if some of them would have found out the connection, they would make helluva noise - look at me, i found the reason! | 18:13 |
| de-facto | yet the "one thing at a time" probably makes sense for the immune system dedicating its resources | 18:13 |
| notsungyet | me and nobody else | 18:13 |
| notsungyet | no vaccine prob wouldnt do that. not sure if even sars2 does, there are different interferons. it seems to be, or its possible, that infection with rhino 39 rises that interferon response that rises innate response that hurts sars2, but rhino 39 isnt affected | 18:16 |
| notsungyet | raises | 18:16 |
| de-facto | afaik vaccines are able to induce t-cell immunity | 18:17 |
| de-facto | quite some papers about those for COVID | 18:18 |
| de-facto | oh yeah i have not read properly what you wrote | 18:19 |
| nixonix | just not info yet how it is with those bone marrow plasma cells. or whats the relevance of them anyway, are they even helpfull. theres lots of reactivity that isnt protective | 18:19 |
| de-facto | do we have an estimate for approximating the spread of the phylogenetic tree of SARS-CoV-2? | 18:20 |
| nixonix | anyways, one relative seems to have some common cold, and 2nd dose later this month, so i was thinking if she should postpone it or not | 18:20 |
| de-facto | what would be the time between cold and booster? | 18:21 |
| Raf[m] | <de-facto "do we have an estimate for appro"> regarding variants? or other relationships? | 18:22 |
| nixonix | i wasnt sure what you meant, like representing it somehow using more axes than 2? | 18:22 |
| de-facto | yeah how much diversity already generated over time | 18:22 |
| nixonix | i guess it depends when the symptoms will go away, couple weeks or so possibly | 18:22 |
| de-facto | nixonix, i am thinking about how the evolution of the envelope of neutralization by immunity could be optimized to cover most of currently circulating variants, the cross section being a sum of some normal distributions around those variants that the immune system was being made acquainted with | 18:25 |
| de-facto | it must be a time evolution of that envelope, stirred by some vaccine updates at correct time points and with correct mutations | 18:26 |
| de-facto | if immunity is too narrow (but super high) it might miss evasion mutants, if it is too broad (but super low) it may not win in the time race against a very fit mutant | 18:27 |
| de-facto | so the condition probably would be to maintain more or less constant area under such cross sections along the diversity metric axis | 18:28 |
| nixonix | its just those relevant variants they should optimize it. and possibly those that they could forecast. which is impossible, as only the population studies will tell how eg that lambda variant will escape vaccines | 18:28 |
| de-facto | basically a three dimensional evolution along a time axis, perpendicular to that the metric for diversity (of phylogenetic distance to the wuhan origin spike) and perpendicular to both the neutralization capability of the immune system | 18:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Cuba: +3591 cases (now 210913), +15 deaths (now 1387) since 23 hours ago — Greece: +2181 cases (now 429144), +8 deaths (now 12730) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +28334 cases (now 5.0 million) since 15 hours ago | 18:29 |
| nixonix | some people think indian delta variant is already the ultimate variant, that will dominate in the future | 18:29 |
| nixonix | im not convinced. but for sure its spot is getting tighter, less possibilities left | 18:30 |
| de-facto | well the area under the distributions for such cross sections probably would be some exponential decay with time from the latest update shots | 18:30 |
| de-facto | (i dont know any of that, just a thought experiment) | 18:31 |
| nixonix | but it could jump to another "attractor" on regions where immunity threshold are reached, putting out more immune evasive variants that would be less infective among non-immunized population | 18:31 |
| de-facto | yes hence i wanted to start with a broad estimate that would give me an envelope around diversity, all included, because we allow global traveling anyhow | 18:32 |
| de-facto | i guess it would be some exponential (at least for constant mutation rates) | 18:33 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/scottishwormboy/status/1411952287132618752 | 18:34 |
| de-facto | yeah what i keep repeating for a year or more | 18:35 |
| nixonix | that kind of thinking might be beneficial for universal betacoronavirus vaccine. but just to block the dominating variant as efficiently as possible - while still being good enough for other most likely variants, i think there are just some key mutations they should try to take care of | 18:35 |
| nixonix | for universal vaccine, try to find out if just using conserved regions common to most of them, would be protective enough | 18:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Good News, Bad News on COVID From Pandemic Holiday Weekend: The good news: Vaccinations are up. The less than good news: We missed President Biden's goal for vaccinations. The bad news: Half the U.S. saw an increase in cases last week and one Missouri hospital had so many COVID patients it ran out of ventilators. → https://is.gd/Y7lP6j | 18:39 |
| de-facto | .title https://academic.oup.com/gbe/article/13/5/evab087/6251359 | 18:42 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From academic.oup.com: Mutation Rates and Selection on Synonymous Mutations in SARS-CoV-2 | Genome Biology and Evolution | Oxford Academic | 18:42 |
| de-facto | i imagine the immune system tries to cover it all with a dynamically evolving envelope of immunity while the pathogen tries to punch holes through it with breakthrough infections, so how to stimulate the dynamic of that envelope with (as few as possible) vaccine updates to make it optimally cover all circulating variants, hence minimize over all breakthrough likelihood? | 18:45 |
| de-facto | problem is there is feedback by founders effect from breakthrough cases spreading mutants with increased evasive capabilities in such a vaccinated population | 18:47 |
| de-facto | with significant delay though | 18:48 |
| nixonix | it would be just that universal betacoronavirus vaccine. or universal just for sars2 variants, which would be close to that anyway (conserved regions would be almost the same) | 18:49 |
| de-facto | well assuming limited immune resources (e.g. a limit on the area under neutralization cross sections) there should be an optimal shape of that neutralization distribution for each point in time | 18:50 |
| de-facto | (btw just going crazy here, i dont know if it can be modeled by such a naive approach at all) | 18:51 |
| nixonix | so how fast to get a vaccine after common cold? i guess id have several days without symptoms, for cytokines to get close to normal. then again, if youll have "long common cold" something, it might take several months, and you wouldnt necessarily even notice it that somethings still going on | 18:51 |
| nixonix | would that matter, when the response to vaccine would be somewhat different? i think immunologists might have educated guesses, but still guesses | 18:52 |
| de-facto | i think there are generic recommendations for that (cold->vaccination delay) | 18:53 |
| de-facto | i dont know, was it something like 2 weeks? | 18:53 |
| de-facto | bbl | 18:53 |
| nixonix | if you have links, paste here | 18:53 |
| nixonix | i dont remember seeing, and was thinking to google them | 18:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nebraska, United States: +194 cases (now 224682) since 5 days ago | 19:06 |
| nixonix | maybe some improvement for substitution models, if their results are accepted. that paper above | 19:09 |
| nixonix | .title https://gizmodo.com/journal-retracts-terrible-study-that-claimed-widespread-1847219596 | 19:12 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From gizmodo.com: Journal Retracts Study That Claimed Widespread Covid-19 Vaccine Deaths | 19:12 |
| nixonix | .title https://retractionwatch.com/2021/06/29/paper-claiming-two-deaths-from-covid-19-vaccination-for-every-three-prevented-cases-earns-expression-of-concern/ | 19:12 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From retractionwatch.com: Paper claiming two deaths from COVID-19 vaccination for every three prevented cases earns expression of concern – Retraction Watch | 19:12 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/07/scientists-quit-journal-board-protesting-grossly-irresponsible-study-claiming-covid-19 | 19:13 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.sciencemag.org: Scientists quit journal board, protesting ‘grossly irresponsible’ study claiming COVID-19 vaccines kill | Science | AAAS | 19:13 |
| nixonix | those two "attractors" could remain at the same time, when the vaccine coverage increases and it seems sars2 vaccines dont prevent infections for many years | 19:25 |
| nixonix | how was it with measles, how did it develop to that tight spot, where it cant escape vaccines efficiently? was it because in humankind the immunity gained from infections was so lasting, that eventually most of people had immunity? | 19:26 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-na-measles-timeline-20150205-story.html | 19:28 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.latimes.com: The history of measles: A scourge for centuries - Los Angeles Times | 19:28 |
| nixonix | american natives, polynesians etc didnt have measles immunity. yet it didnt evolve among them so, that it would start to push out lots of new mutations, that had better chance to evade immunity | 19:30 |
| nixonix | with sars2 its different, when there will be two populations, those with immunity and those that dont have it. some lineages will develop as immune escaping variants, and some of those will eventually dominate among those with some level of immunity | 19:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Million-dollar Ohio COVID lottery didn't drive vaccine uptake: study: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Jul 06, 2021 A lottery-based incentive was not tied to increased vaccination rates in adults. → https://is.gd/aFBaDM | 19:31 |
| nixonix | then delta-type variant, possibly this current one or some even more infective, would be the other direction, species or serotype, like with flus or deng | 19:33 |
| nixonix | or maybe another close cousin of sars2 virus will spill over from animals or petri dish... close enough so they have enough cross immunity that it can replace the current ones | 19:35 |
| nixonix | and those with partial immunity, those that are immunocompromised and partially immunized with infection or vaccine, or those with just one dose, or those with long time from immunization. more those, the more chances to push out immune evasion variants | 19:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Myanmar: +3602 cases (now 171976), +52 deaths (now 3513) since 22 hours ago — Mozambique: +1458 cases (now 82346), +11 deaths (now 923) since 23 hours ago | 19:37 |
| nixonix | those with not efficient vaccine, for the current variant anyway, one dose vaccine like jnj and sputnik light, or just bad vaccine for current variants. maybe they shouldnt be used | 19:39 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.news24.com/news24/world/news/over-350-indonesian-doctors-contract-covid-19-despite-sinovac-vaccination-dozens-hospitalised-20210617 | 19:40 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.news24.com: Over 350 Indonesian doctors contract Covid-19 despite Sinovac vaccination, dozens hospitalised | News24 | 19:40 |
| nixonix | lotteries, prizes, other incentives when vaccination rates start to wane? | 19:43 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/australia-urged-offer-cash-incentives-boost-covid-vaccination-rates | 19:43 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.voanews.com: Australia Urged to Offer Cash Incentives to Boost COVID Vaccination Rates | Voice of America - English | 19:43 |
| nixonix | imo the most important, while looking closely us results - including things like myocarditis, will be to vaccinate kids too. benefit - risk ratio should include potential damages like left brain regions, telomeres etc | 19:45 |
| nixonix | but besides that, the best incentive for adults would be, no access to bars and events unless vaxxed. vax passports. call me vaxcist, yeah... | 19:46 |
| nixonix | there are already requirements for travelling | 19:46 |
| trbp | why do you write here? is this channel not supposed to be just a news bot and update thing for numbers? | 19:47 |
| trbp | nixonix: ? | 19:47 |
| nixonix | that true` | 19:47 |
| nixonix | `? | 19:48 |
| nixonix | maybe this was mostly at the time when the other channel had more activity | 19:48 |
| nixonix | who founded this chan anyway? i think the other ones founder was cews | 19:49 |
| trbp | actually nobody cares about it anyways since the western hemisphere has decided to go into football championship and summer holidays | 19:49 |
| nixonix | where are you from? | 19:49 |
| trbp | europe | 19:50 |
| trbp | and you? | 19:50 |
| nixonix | finland | 19:50 |
| nixonix | russia? | 19:50 |
| lavadonut | mrna rules | 19:50 |
| nixonix | novavax looks good too | 19:51 |
| trbp | i do not understand what you finnish people have problems with russians :) | 19:51 |
| nixonix | im always a good guesser :) | 19:51 |
| nixonix | is it almost all delta variant in russia now? i mean its in st petersburg and moscow, but russia is huge | 19:53 |
| nixonix | i wonder if it reached the distant cities already too | 19:54 |
| trbp | ya nje iz russil | 19:56 |
| trbp | but i guess it is world wide spread | 19:56 |
| nixonix | ah, azer | 19:59 |
| trbp | men azeri de deylim | 20:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: A Banking App Has Been Suddenly Closing Accounts, Sometimes Not Returning Customers’ Money: by Carson Kessler ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. The day after Jonathan Marrero’s federal stimulus payment landed in his bank [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/hZvmjM | 20:02 |
| trbp | but they got it too i guess | 20:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for N. Mariana Is.: +1 cases (now 184) since a month ago | 20:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: COVID Vaccines Will Not Reach Poorest Countries Until 2023: People wait in a queue at the Pretoria North Club Rendezvous vaccination site for educators and support staff on June 24, 2021 in Pretoria, South Africa. → https://is.gd/pmqhvt | 20:22 |
| de-facto | .title https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c=S1_mutations&l=scatter®ression=show&scatterY=div&tl=clade_membership | 20:25 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From nextstrain.org: auspice | 20:25 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From nextstrain.org: auspice | 20:25 |
| de-facto | .title https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c=S1_mutations&l=scatter®ression=show&tl=clade_membership | 20:27 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From nextstrain.org: auspice | 20:27 |
| de-facto | quite a lot of S1 mutations emerging in South America (up to 12) compared to Europe (around 7) | 20:29 |
| de-facto | is that proportional to real incidence? or do they have more antigenic drift due to some other difference? | 20:30 |
| de-facto | hmm maybe also some sampling bias involved, e.g. them sequencing only the most interesting clusters? | 20:31 |
| Krey[m] | Can I get COVID from a dog | 20:37 |
| Krey[m] | Like him getting COVID and passing that on me? Not from the fur and stuff | 20:38 |
| * Krey[m] s dog is ill and is throwing up and I have a sore throat and rhinitis | 20:39 | |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +14137 cases (now 3.9 million), +18 deaths (now 80952) since 20 hours ago — Andorra: +73 cases (now 13991) since 5 days ago — Italy: +907 cases (now 4.3 million), +24 deaths (now 127704) since a day ago — France: +31 deaths (now 111292) since 22 hours ago | 20:39 |
| Raf[m] | <nixonix "lotteries, prizes, other incenti"> Recent study showed lottery did not improve vaccination rate | 20:41 |
| Raf[m] | https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-07-lottery-based-incentives-covid-vaccination.html | 20:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: AGENZIA ITALIANA DEL FARMACO - COMUNICATO: Modifica dell'autorizzazione all'immissione in commercio deimedicinali per uso umano «Efexor» e «Venlafaxina Pfizer» (21A04011) → https://is.gd/wT9vN9 | 20:43 |
| * Krey[m] gave himself Muller pills and fixed the rhinitis and sore throat with it | 20:50 | |
| Krey[m] | Hm apparently dogs can get covid o.O | 20:56 |
| Krey[m] | Aaaaaaaaaaaaa | 20:57 |
| lavadonut | Krey[m] did you get vaccinated yet? | 20:58 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-confirms-vaccine-less-effective-against-delta-variant-eyes-third-dose/ | 21:00 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.timesofisrael.com: Israel confirms vaccine less effective against Delta variant, eyes third dose | The Times of Israel | 21:00 |
| nixonix | norway loosened, finland tigthtened travel restricions. wtf norway, you had it fine, now ok with indian variant? or you figured out its too late to slow it down? | 21:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Clinical trials: Commission buys 37M more J&J coronavirus shots → https://is.gd/wJQfkg | 21:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kuwait: +1993 cases (now 367642), +20 deaths (now 2049) since 22 hours ago — India: +37252 cases (now 30.6 million), +729 deaths (now 403409) since 21 hours ago | 21:04 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.fhi.no/en/op/novel-coronavirus-facts-advice/facts-and-general-advice/entry-quarantine-travel-covid19/ | 21:05 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.fhi.no: Entry quarantine and rules upon arrival in Norway - NIPH | 21:05 |
| nixonix | 10 h car lines on finland norway border yesterday | 21:05 |
| de-facto | Krey[m], hmm i guess possible but we dont know how likely (probably not super likely). Yet why dont you go get a test if you are worried? | 21:05 |
| nixonix | there was already critic to those israelian new results pfizer vs indian variant. not representative sample etc | 21:06 |
| de-facto | nixonix, we also loosened travel restrictions in Germany, politicians sabotaging our low incidence (i assume on purpose because its part of their job to be well informed) | 21:07 |
| de-facto | nixonix, yeah in regard to Israel reporting 64% for BNT against Delta, i tried to find the original source, but only found press copying from each others, none of them mentioned a source | 21:08 |
| de-facto | so i guess its just a rumor? or is there some real data behind that somewhere? | 21:08 |
| de-facto | Krey[m], https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/animals.html | 21:08 |
| de-facto | i hate when press does not provide any sources for their claims | 21:09 |
| nixonix | i think its real, but possibly less accurate than studies in england and scotland. ill try to find something later | 21:10 |
| nixonix | bbl | 21:10 |
| de-facto | "According to the ministry, the Pfizer vaccine’s effectiveness in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 has dropped by some 30 percent to 64%, given the spread of the Delta variant." | 21:10 |
| de-facto | how about a link or name? | 21:11 |
| de-facto | unless i see data i dont believe them | 21:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: COVID-19 Scan for Jul 06, 2021: Equity in COVID vaccine distribution Long COVID-19 after 1 year → https://is.gd/fxvPOj | 21:14 |
| Raf[m] | <de-facto ""According to the ministry, the "> it's supposed to be Israel Health Ministry, but I agree, the source has been proven difficult to track down | 21:40 |
| de-facto | well thats what that "newspaper" there states, but maybe its just a rumor if the original source cant be found? | 21:43 |
| de-facto | i would like to know more about that claim, numbers, description of cohort etc | 21:43 |
| de-facto | was it representative of population? | 21:44 |
| de-facto | was it an elderly home? | 21:44 |
| de-facto | one time or twice vaccinated? | 21:44 |
| de-facto | how long ago vaccinated | 21:44 |
| de-facto | age distribution, outcome, symptoms | 21:44 |
| de-facto | all things that a single number cant tell | 21:45 |
| de-facto | maybe they did pcr tests as endpoint? or was it symptomatic disease? | 21:46 |
| de-facto | i guess "health ministery did not tell" that? | 21:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: July 6, 2021 → https://is.gd/vsBgFD | 22:06 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260005v1 | 22:07 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Mathematical modelling of SARS-CoV-2 variant outbreaks reveals their probability of extinction | medRxiv | 22:07 |
| Raf[m] | all valid questions, de-facto, we would need to find the original press release from the israeli health ministry. i imagine they have some sort of website where they provide the releases of information, which the news outlets picked up | 22:07 |
| de-facto | i think its a rumor created by some journalists or such | 22:12 |
| de-facto | they usually all copy each others without even thinking about verifying any sources | 22:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: COVID Infections in Israel Spike by 50 Percent → https://is.gd/BMyag5 | 22:16 |
| de-facto | .title https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general | 22:37 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From datadashboard.health.gov.il: ק×ר×× × - ××× ××§×¨× | 22:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: States report increase in COVID-19 cases over holiday: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Jul 06, 2021 The federal government with shift to a smaller, community-based COVID vaccination effort. → https://is.gd/HlcAd0 | 22:37 |
| nixonix | https://data.gov.il/dataset/covid-19/resource/9b623a64-f7df-4d0c-9f57-09bd99a88880 | 22:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘Get on with our lives': Why Singapore's new virus strategy will get them out of lockdowns months before Australians → https://is.gd/oI2Mb7 | 22:58 |
| nixonix | hard to believe they wouldnt have data, although theres some political stuff going on, affecting payments to pfizer, but still | 23:00 |
| nixonix | to support that estimate. but there are things that could bias the results, like timing of lifting restrictions | 23:01 |
| nixonix | also if those double vaccinated are more willing to go to places with people than those not yet vaccinated, it could bias the results | 23:02 |
| nixonix | then again the same could happen when vaccine coverage isnt that high yet (currently i think around 85% of adults in israel have got 2 doses) | 23:03 |
| nixonix | also it could bias the results differently depending on country or area, the current vax coverage, and the policy of who gets the vaccine first | 23:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Doctors Without Borders urges Roche to cut price of drug now recommended for Covid-19 → https://is.gd/9xam15 | 23:09 |
| nixonix | not looking good for pfizer, and even worse than in israel: | 23:18 |
| nixonix | https://imgur.com/a/8O8Wcd7 | 23:18 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420v1.full | 23:18 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medrxiv.org: Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against variants of concern, Canada | medRxiv | 23:18 |
| Arsanerit | what's next? | 23:21 |
| nixonix | so, could there be difference between moderna and pfizer, what was the dosage interval used with them? eg if they first got mostly pfizer, using recommended 3 week interval, then later moderna, and had increased it to 16 weeks. thats hopeful thinking, but thats all i have at the moment... | 23:21 |
| nixonix | besides that biased results, like above | 23:22 |
| Arsanerit | here they do 6 weeks | 23:22 |
| Arsanerit | do they do 16 weeks between doses in Israel? | 23:22 |
| Arsanerit | doesn't Israel have relatively many people who don't want vaccine? | 23:23 |
| nixonix | well, data from england and scotland is better. and larger population. they dont have data for moderna yet, i think | 23:23 |
| nixonix | no its 3 or 4 weeks in israel, as far as i know | 23:23 |
| nixonix | but in canada they increased it to 16. later they have reduced it for some, i think | 23:23 |
| Arsanerit | but are infected people in UK getting sick at all? | 23:24 |
| nixonix | no their vaccine coverage is very good among 16+ years. its that 27% share of <= 15 yo that makes it look low | 23:24 |
| nixonix | then theres difference in population who gets the vaccine and who doesnt, and ofc behavioral differencies, and im not sure if they have properly filtered them out. most not willing being ultras, then arabs | 23:25 |
| nixonix | and large share of kids especially among both, i think | 23:25 |
| nixonix | should look at uk hospitalizations, but the last time i heard, they were going up a bit | 23:26 |
| nixonix | not nearly as much as infections to, but they come with month or so delay, at least it was in finland | 23:27 |
| nixonix | because new waves start among young, and later go to older age groups (who are mostly vaccinated by now) | 23:27 |
| nixonix | i take it back, had a cross eyed sight looking at the table when some fields were empty... | 23:37 |
| nixonix | yeah, after fixing my sight, pfizer doesnt look that bad at all. it just got lower result after 1st dose. and the other two might be more positive because small sample, or different intervals used at different times | 23:42 |
| nixonix | 2 dose results matter, and they look good for pfizers symptomatic infections. no results for 2nd dose preventing hospitalizations or deaths | 23:43 |
| de-facto | those numbers look much more realistic | 23:44 |
| de-facto | thanks for the paper | 23:44 |
| nixonix | and 1st dose still lower for pfizer vs hospitals or deaths, but might be sample sizes etc for the other two. they had problems to get moderna, and az had this thrombosis thing affecting popularity | 23:44 |
| de-facto | although not many delta cases in those stats | 23:45 |
| nixonix | anyways pfizer 1st dose vs symptomatic delta infection was around 50% in uk too | 23:45 |
| nixonix | and i doubt moderna is any better in reality. az might be after several weeks abs rising | 23:46 |
| nixonix | and prolly is, since most of its efficacy comes from the 1st dose anyway | 23:46 |
| nixonix | yeah, that too. anyways, i think israel results look worse than real protection really is | 23:47 |
| de-facto | i think the same | 23:47 |
| de-facto | that paper there is much more sophisticated providing info about cohorts and number of infections | 23:47 |
| de-facto | i think the Israel number is a rumor by some press or such, i doubt its an official statement when they would not link any source | 23:48 |
| de-facto | btw two doses BNT at 88% against delta is consistent with https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.22.21257658v1 | 23:49 |
| Arsanerit | We'll see how UK hospitalisations and casualties develop in the next 6-8 weeks, then. | 23:53 |
| nixonix | remember, its going to get worse before it gets better | 23:58 |
| nixonix | then it goes worse again... | 23:58 |
| Arsanerit | Yes, but how much worse? | 23:59 |
| nixonix | no man, not this time. enough is enough | 23:59 |
| nixonix | only better now | 23:59 |
| Arsanerit | If the vaccines protect well against serious disease, then even with high infection rates we should see much less serious disease than before? | 23:59 |
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