| LjL | xrogaan, but as to whether that paper had been posted before, a bit to my surprise, my provisional answer is... no? unless it was posted as a preprint and with a different title, because i'm not finding either that URL or the string "immune responses against" in my logs except now | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | let's try with "heterologous" although that may swamp me | 00:00 |
| LjL | also something about "mix and match" vaccines is definitely something that's missing from the resources page as it was being studied while i was least in the mood to add stuff... | 00:00 |
| LjL | i really only get these | 00:02 |
| LjL | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01449https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.13.21258859v1 → Immunogenicity and reactogenicity of a heterologous COVID-19 prime-boost vaccination compared with homologous vaccine regimens | 00:02 |
| LjL | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3874014 → Safety and Immunogenicity Report from the Com-COV Study – a Single-Blind Randomised Non-Inferiority Trial Comparing Heterologous And Homologous Prime-Boost Schedules with An Adenoviral Vectored and mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine by Xinxue Liu, RobertH. Shaw, ArabellaSV Stuart, Melanie Greenland, Tanya Dinesh, Samuel Pro | 00:02 |
| LjL | whoops first link | 00:03 |
| LjL | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.13.21258859v1 clearly | 00:03 |
| Turbo_Tech | Information overload. | 00:03 |
| Turbo_Tech | LOL | 00:03 |
| LjL | more like copypaste failure | 00:05 |
| LjL | anyway neither of this appears to be a preprint form of the one xrogaan posted, but also that one doesn't sound entirely unfamiliar... | 00:05 |
| LjL | and we definitely talked a bunch of times about the fact that AZ+BNT gave more side effects than AZ+AZ or BNT+BNT, so that must have come from some study | 00:06 |
| LjL | i think i'll just wait for de-facto to show up and produce the study involved | 00:06 |
| himesama | i have too many questions. a minor one is why heterologous instead of heterogenous. | 00:11 |
| himesama | does it refer to non-mrna vs. mrna or does it refer to vax a vs. vax b where either can be any | 00:12 |
| himesama | if the latter then i am too confused; heterogenous makes more sense | 00:12 |
| LjL | bit of an academic question i guess? i don't know the "correct" answer, but in practice the combinations that are being studied are adenovirus+mRNA | 00:13 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/tKV9vP7 https://i.imgur.com/TzO87Bb.png "COVID Germany: People received 1st vaccination dose v[t] = 54E6 / (1 + Exp[(130 - t) / 28])" data: https://impfdashboard.de/static/data/germany_vaccinations_timeseries_v2.tsv | 00:13 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: People received 1st vaccination dose - Album on Imgur | 00:13 |
| de-facto | Found a perfect fit function for first dose vaccinations in Germany, its the logistic function v[t] = 54E6 / (1 + Exp[(130 - t) / 28]) with a maximum at 54M hence 54M / 84M ~ 64% will be our current asymptotic vaccination value, not enough by long shot | 00:14 |
| de-facto | joerg, ^^ | 00:15 |
| Turbo_Tech | Man, I thought I was a nerd. | 00:16 |
| Turbo_Tech | You guys are amazing | 00:16 |
| Turbo_Tech | Difference between a Linux and Discord server. | 00:16 |
| himesama | de-facto: this refers to correlating vax rate to proportion infected or so? | 00:18 |
| de-facto | its just the number of people received 1st dose (hence i assume also 2nd dose later) over time and an educated guess for a logistic function as interpolation to extrapolate for asymptotic value in the future, assuming the same circumstances hold vaccinations on that trajectory | 00:20 |
| de-facto | that results in 54M vaccinated as maximum, but since we got 84M citizens in Germany its ~ 64% vaccination rate | 00:21 |
| himesama | so you're talking about progress in vaccination rate? | 00:21 |
| de-facto | not enough by long shot | 00:21 |
| himesama | did you add in natural immunity? | 00:21 |
| de-facto | cumulative 1st doses | 00:22 |
| de-facto | natural immunity is unknown | 00:22 |
| de-facto | it somehow may overlap partially with vaccination immunity, but its not clear in which way | 00:23 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.26.21261130v1 | 00:23 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Vaccine effectiveness when combining the ChAdOx1 vaccine as the first dose with an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine as the second dose | medRxiv | 00:23 |
| de-facto | LjL, did you mean that? | 00:24 |
| de-facto | i did not follow discussion earlier | 00:24 |
| LjL | i don't know why i try to keep a page with links when there is de-facto :P | 00:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Philippine president Duterte told unvaccinated people 'for all I care, you can die anytime' as he continues his brutal threats against vaccine deniers → https://is.gd/cLZ0E2 | 00:34 |
| LjL | surprised *he* isn't a vaccine denier | 00:36 |
| himesama | the article says 94 percent currently unvaccinated, so he is telling the vast majority they can die (and leaving out medicalo considerations) | 00:36 |
| himesama | i mean 6 percent vaccinated | 00:36 |
| himesama | is the tractor vodka guy still doing the tractor vodka thing? | 00:37 |
| specing | himesama: lol, only 6%? | 00:38 |
| LjL | himesama, among the things Duterte has said, there is that God spoke to him while he was asleep on an airplane and told him he'd crash the plane if he didn't stop swearing | 00:38 |
| LjL | but according to my current googling, he also called God "stupid", so you know | 00:39 |
| LjL | i wouldn't be surprised if he said vaccines are evil tomorrow | 00:39 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Queue up papers on heterologous vaccination, well overdue ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/e8828b979482469ad4edaee53cfff95157bff70c ) | 00:40 | |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Queue up papers on heterologous vaccination, well overdue → https://is.gd/uf8mQy | 00:45 |
| himesama | idk | 00:59 |
| himesama | there's this and stuff https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/4502-the-president-of-the-united-states-has-claimed-on-more | 01:00 |
| himesama | leaders talk about suypernatural entities all the time i think | 01:01 |
| himesama | in what language was he speaking when he said that? | 01:03 |
| himesama | well i missed all that | 01:06 |
| himesama | https://www.newsweek.com/god-stupid-philippines-duterte-kill-bishops-1247576 | 01:06 |
| himesama | so it sounds like a slow news day | 01:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +23 deaths (now 26598) since 22 hours ago | 01:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Togo: +174 cases (now 15798) since 20 hours ago — Vietnam: +4564 cases (now 145686), +145 deaths (now 1306) since 18 hours ago | 01:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Qanon Karen says the vaccine is aborted baby tissue and the mark of the beast, because these are the end times. This insane antivaxx dumbfuck is Mellisa Carone (GOP), a Michigan congressional candidate. Unfuckingbelievable. → https://is.gd/v8WumD | 01:40 |
| LjL | himesama, i don't really know. "killing" does seem to be his go-to solution a lot | 01:49 |
| himesama | hence slow news day | 01:50 |
| himesama | doesn't sound native english | 01:50 |
| himesama | seems like bad taste to invoke killing when some priests were killed but what do i know | 01:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +187 deaths (now 423810) since 17 hours ago | 02:11 |
| de-facto | .title https://serotracker.com/en/Explore | 02:12 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, the URL could not be loaded | 02:12 |
| de-facto | "SeroTracker is a dashboard and data platform for SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys. Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, indicate previous infection or vaccination." | 02:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Assaults on police in England and Wales rise above 100 a day during pandemic → https://is.gd/UnKVaG | 02:14 |
| LjL | nice find de-facto | 02:34 |
| LjL | sorry that my bot doesn't make a better imitation of a web browser to websites | 02:34 |
| LjL | quite a terrible date range picker | 02:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +23940 cases (now 6.1 million), +52 deaths (now 111947) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +2420 cases (now 1.9 million), +5 deaths (now 17968) since 21 hours ago — United Kingdom: +20136 cases (now 5.9 million), +53 deaths (now 129766) since 21 hours ago — Belgium: +309 cases (now 1.1 million) since 19 hours ago | 02:36 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add SeroTracker, a collection of worldwide serological surveys ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/045941b346e1cf0bc7e4d6ee3e140fc6aa2984f1 ) | 02:45 | |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add SeroTracker, a collection of worldwide serological surveys → https://is.gd/HPVG7J | 02:47 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Somalia: +45 cases (now 15403), +2 deaths (now 811) since 2 days ago | 03:38 |
| joerg | I'm occasionally looking at the vaccination progress in my local town, and for e.g. yesterday it was 💉 Verabreichte Impfdosen: 541.957 (+4.117) 💉💉 Vollständig geimpft: 253.253 (+3.607) - which translates into singlevaccinated=541957-(2*253253)=35451 of which 3.607 received their 2nd jab, and the remaining aka firstjab=4117-3607=**510** new on that day! We are at ~50% completevaxed which means of the 260,000 completely unvaxed, a FIVEHUNDREDa | 03:45 |
| joerg | received their first jab. We're no way reaching anything fainly resembling herd immunity, this year, unless some change of notion regarding vaccination happens in D (or the virus does the immunization work for us) | 03:45 |
| joerg | wait, that ignores the J&J single-shot regimen, though this doesn't change the larger picture any much | 03:50 |
| LjL | joerg, ugh i don't remember where i was reading this, but some place had >80% vaccination rates, in America, and it's still circulating enough it's clear there's no herd immunity, so the thing i was reading remarked 90% was more likely to be the mark | 03:51 |
| LjL | but at the same time, it seems clear with Delta that the vaccine doesn't stop transmission at all | 03:51 |
| LjL | so will herd immunity even be a thing? i don't think so, not with the current vaccines | 03:52 |
| joerg | :nod: | 03:52 |
| himesama | at all? | 03:53 |
| himesama | you might be thinking of provincetown ma | 03:53 |
| joerg | well, seems you still have a 80some% of protection against infection, so there is some effect to reduce R_t, though even with a 100% fully vaxed we still would see only an effective 80% which obviously is <90% | 03:54 |
| LjL | himesama, that's what the latest things i've been reading seem to be showing. well, mainly one thing, reported widely. note that the vaccines still prevent many infections so the claim is that *if* you get infected, you're likely as contagious as an unvaccinated person, but your chances of getting infected are still somewhat lower | 03:54 |
| joerg | though Israel claims it's only 39%(?) | 03:54 |
| LjL | joerg, i really don't believe there is an 80% of protection against infection | 03:54 |
| himesama | it could be the behavior though. they were talking about partying. and provincetown at least used to be well known for being a certain type of mecca that might or might not include certain types of possibly risky behavior | 03:54 |
| LjL | i believe Israel in this case. i know they are the ones providing the least data, but i find it consistent with what i read is happening | 03:55 |
| joerg | LjL: yeah, I also wouldn't bet on that | 03:55 |
| LjL | himesama, "Barnstable County, Massachusetts" is the one where 74% of infected (from public events, though, may be relevant) were vaccinated, but i'm not sure if that's where i read the "we need 90%" remark | 03:56 |
| LjL | joerg, anyway https://www.contagionlive.com/view/cdc-report-shows-significant-breakthrough-cases-in-massachusetts is one article on it. not where i read about it originally, but i just had this site open | 03:56 |
| LjL | During this time, vaccination coverage among eligible residents of the state was at 69%, one of the highest rates in the country. Among the 469 documented cases, 346 (74%) occurred in fully vaccinated individuals. Genomic sequencing of specimens from 133 of those cases demonstrated that 119 (89%) of them were found to be the Delta variant. | 03:56 |
| LjL | Symptomatic cases were seen in 274 (79%) of the vaccinated individuals and 4 ended up needing to be hospitalized. | 03:57 |
| LjL | this was already becoming apparent in Europe, i'm not sure why the CDC had to wait for something like this to actually happen in America before they were convinced they were not invulnerable... | 03:58 |
| LjL | "The data reported in the study is what led to the CDC recently reversing course" | 03:58 |
| himesama | same reason they sat around while china then thailand then italy and japan then ...? | 03:58 |
| LjL | himesama, there was also something in i think Cape Cod, CA, though | 03:58 |
| himesama | provincetown is at the end of cape cod | 03:58 |
| LjL | probably | 03:58 |
| himesama | iirc | 03:59 |
| LjL | oh, okay, i must be confused | 03:59 |
| LjL | i remembered something from California | 03:59 |
| LjL | but i might just have misread | 03:59 |
| himesama | why are israel providing the least data? they are one of the few or the only fully vaccinated country arten't they? | 04:03 |
| joerg | LjL: about this numbers, there's just one strange thing: >>vaccination coverage 69%, 346 (74%) occurred in fully vaccinated individuals.<< This means you're MORE likely to catch the virus when you're vaccinated, no? I only can make sense out of this by assuming the vaccinated are behaving more risky than the unvaccinated | 04:03 |
| himesama | (idk about palestinian terrirotoris) | 04:03 |
| himesama | (i.e. whether they are part of the 100 percent) | 04:04 |
| LjL | joerg, again i stress that while i don't know the exact details, my understanding is this was a survey of people who attended "public events". so what you say, that the vaccinated are behaving more risky, is probably made more likely by that | 04:04 |
| LjL | himesama, it was probably not accurate to me to say they're "providing the least data". they have an agreement with Pfizer to run a few studies, and they definitely provided worthwhile data. just this latest thing that involves vaccine efficacy at 39% was found to be a bit lacking in terms of "show us the raw data" | 04:05 |
| himesama | what does efficacy refer to specifically? | 04:06 |
| LjL | i feel very frustrated with my scarce ability to keep track of news and studies at times. i *know* in my head that i've seen a few "tons of people who got COVID were vaccinated" news/papers lately, from Europe and the US, but right now that one about Massachussets is basically the only one that comes to mind, and that's chiefly because i had that Contagion Live site open, and i feel a number of these things should be in my page but aren't | 04:07 |
| LjL | and when i realize they should be but aren't it's too late to find them again | 04:07 |
| himesama | perhaps it could be that the place was vaccinated and teh behavior was risky but no arrow of causation from one to the other (although i'd suspect there would be) | 04:08 |
| himesama | s/would/might | 04:08 |
| himesama | well i pay muych less attention and i remember it being provincetown in the one i saw, perhaps the cdc leak thing someplace | 04:08 |
| LjL | himesama, i think especially in the US (but also in Europe), there has been a somewhat purposeful lack of awareness that the vaccines are not *so* very efficacious with Delta. the reasoning is probably "if we tell people that, they'll vaccinate themselves even *less*" (and they're already not getting vaccinated much in the US) | 04:09 |
| LjL | but as usual, i think the best thing to do is tell the measured truth | 04:09 |
| LjL | "the vaccine still improves your chances a lot, but unfortunately, with Delta, catching COVID even in bad forms is still likely even after vaccination) | 04:09 |
| LjL | " | 04:09 |
| LjL | i'm sure it could be worded better, but that's pretty much how it is | 04:09 |
| himesama | well if the reason to get vaccinated is strong on the grounds that you get infected less then there would presumably be not much of an issue sayi8ng that? | 04:09 |
| LjL | i flipped out at joerg a bit the other day (sorry joerg) because he thought that there was virtually zero severe disease among the vaccinated. but that's pretty much the narrative the US was giving... at least until this study and the CDC paper | 04:10 |
| LjL | CDC slides* | 04:10 |
| himesama | although i am still rather confused about the whole "no we are not trying to reduce r with vaccines, they are just to reduce burden on hospital" type of statement | 04:10 |
| LjL | himesama, i guess because too many people are already thinking the risks outweigh the benefits, and now you'd be telling them the benefits are even less | 04:11 |
| LjL | but on the other side of the coin, you are neglecting to tell vaccinated people that they are still at not-so-low risk if they go to large events and act careless | 04:11 |
| LjL | but the CDC previously has given them exactly that message: if you're vaccinated, you can Do All Things Again | 04:11 |
| himesama | so we are still having public communication falsehoods? | 04:11 |
| joerg | LjL: nevermind | 04:11 |
| joerg | all fine | 04:11 |
| LjL | himesama, either that, or the CDC just genuinely realized that "the war has changed", to use their words, and they hadn't realized before | 04:12 |
| LjL | but if they hadn't realized before, i'm not sure what they're there to do | 04:12 |
| himesama | why not just say something like this thing is really bad we need to shoot with both barrels viz. npi and vaccine | 04:12 |
| himesama | analogy with war, patriotism, etc. | 04:12 |
| LjL | because that would be too much like what de-facto would say, he might claim copyright | 04:12 |
| himesama | hehe i missed him saying that | 04:13 |
| LjL | he keeps saying that NPIs are the foremost things, and that we should mobilize a wartime-like effort | 04:13 |
| LjL | he is not wrong, although i wonder, with the way this is going, are we *ever* going to be able to drop the NPIs again? | 04:14 |
| LjL | i never did much of anything in my life, really | 04:14 |
| himesama | get bruce springsteen to sing a song about all hands on deck or something | 04:14 |
| LjL | but i'd like to take a train sometimes | 04:14 |
| joerg | we're having awesome hilarious TV-news here lately (actually yesterday): first a politician tells in a speech to the public that "vaccinated are less risk to be infectious than tested, so tested won't get the same 'rights' as vaccinated" and literally same newsflash a one or two topics later they reported about the latest CDC findings buzzword chickenpox and "vaccinated, IF they catch the infection, they spread same amount of virus as unvaccinated" - you | 04:17 |
| joerg | watch this and you think "DAMN, can't you watch news, friggin politician?! can't you stop telling us bullshit?" | 04:17 |
| himesama | well vaccinated prior probability might be less risk to infect others? idk the numbers. | 04:18 |
| LjL | joerg, well another thing de-facto has kept hammering on is that vaccination shouldn't be enough for travel etc, people should still get tested | 04:18 |
| himesama | because they dont' get infcted in the first place as much | 04:18 |
| joerg | yes, full ack | 04:18 |
| LjL | himesama, yes, sure, but the point here is, what about vs someone who's had a recent negative test? | 04:18 |
| joerg | to "every traveler must get tested" | 04:19 |
| LjL | it depends on the kind of test, of course | 04:19 |
| LjL | but a negative PCR test gives you a stronger guarantee than being vaccinated, although of course, it's only at one point in time | 04:19 |
| himesama | i think i get it now | 04:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israel said set to toss 80,000 expiring vaccine doses at midnight → https://is.gd/1TlWIx | 04:20 |
| LjL | guys remember that i still don't really have meaningfully separate data for AZ vs Pfizer/Moderna in the UK... and the worst estimate of AZ efficacy is like 65% or so, and that was *before* delta. if Pfizer is now 40%, or even if it's really more like 70%, what is AZ going to be like? | 04:20 |
| himesama | it would definitely be good to get the thing under control instead of playing whack a mole. which makes me wonder about borders, and things like ... israel giving those doses to india or whatever (i am sure i am missing something but stuill) ... and whether border porosity has to be kept to near zero for that npi to work. | 04:21 |
| LjL | of course it's possible AZ lost less efficacy relatively speaking (but why? they all produce the same S protein), but in the worst case scenario, some vaccines offer *really low* protection from infection, and hence transmission | 04:21 |
| joerg | >>what is AZ going to be like<< soda? | 04:21 |
| himesama | worst case? | 04:21 |
| LjL | himesama, if Israel couldn't use those doses in a timely fashion, i think it was very reasonable to give them to India. if you remember India was in a pretty desperate state. | 04:22 |
| LjL | joerg, including the adverse effects of soda? because it has many :P | 04:22 |
| joerg | I have no idea of the adverse effects of soda, but they can't be worse than the AZ issues? | 04:22 |
| LjL | well, they are more common at least | 04:23 |
| mrdata | i was told by the public health worker here in Toronto who vaccinated me, that after 2nd jab (astrazeneca) protection would be 80% effective against infection and about 100% effective against hospitalization and death; interval between jabs was 68 days | 04:23 |
| joerg | funny though: mixed match regimen AZ+mRNA gets the highest antibody titers of all | 04:23 |
| LjL | mrdata, were you told that before Delta was a thing? (and also, every country gives a different percentage, pretty much) | 04:24 |
| LjL | the thing is there have been a bunch of different trials with AZ and they gave fairly different results | 04:24 |
| mrdata | LjL, 2nd jab was june 29 so delta was pretty much known about | 04:24 |
| himesama | bill gates was saying in his ted talk a few years ago that the military is really good at logistics and that would be useful. i am not sure if there are unintended consequences there, or in the case of the us, constitutional issues, but perhaps that could be ... somehow ... useful | 04:24 |
| LjL | joerg, and Germany has been smart enough to put that into practice | 04:24 |
| LjL | mrdata, well, in my opinion they were giving you outdated information | 04:24 |
| himesama | in getting vaccines from one place to another for example | 04:24 |
| specing | LjL: maybe due to different resistance to vector depending on area under study? | 04:24 |
| mrdata | LjL, but the advice wasnt that specific | 04:24 |
| mrdata | okay | 04:25 |
| LjL | specing, i really don't know. i've been saying for a while that AZ has all been a big mess. not because of the creepy side effects, that was the icing on the cake, but really it's not that | 04:25 |
| himesama | but j and j is ok? | 04:26 |
| LjL | i've been saying that AZ was unconvincing to me right from where they started saying "it's 60%. no wait, it's 90% if we look at this cohort that we mistakenly gave the wrong dose to. so half a dose is actually better and protects you 90%. no wait, it isn't about the dose, it's that we also spaced them more apart. so 12 weeks protects you 90%" | 04:26 |
| joerg | oh, !seen rpifan ? | 04:26 |
| LjL | himesama, not really, i just don't concentrate much on J&J because it's scantly used here | 04:26 |
| * joerg is worried | 04:26 | |
| LjL | himesama, but let's say at least maybe its efficacy (pre-Delta, at least) is clearer. 60%-ish (i don't remember the exact figure), without mindgames | 04:27 |
| himesama | not really meaning you are not saying it is ok, or that it is not really ok? | 04:27 |
| LjL | it's just one shot, but you only get 60% protection. period. at least it's clear | 04:27 |
| LjL | himesama, well i don't know what "ok" means in this context. in Italy they're using J&J to vaccinate people who have already had COVID, since they determined that those people only need one shot. maybe that's a good use of it (or maybe it was pre-Delta at least) | 04:27 |
| himesama | is that much protection worth it? maybe a dumb question. vitamin d or sleep would provide what amount of protection? | 04:28 |
| LjL | maybe none | 04:28 |
| LjL | maybe a fair bit | 04:28 |
| LjL | i think that amount of protection is worth it if that's what you can get | 04:28 |
| mrdata | as a prophylactic, getting your RDA of vitamin D and zinc wont hurt you | 04:29 |
| LjL | but again with Delta, i don't know. most of the panic about Delta now is focusing on either the US with mRNA vaccines, or the UK with lack of clarity on what's happening to AZ vs mRNA people | 04:29 |
| LjL | mrdata, agreed, especially with lockdowns keeping us indoors (but even without, the NHS states that most people need a vitamin D supplement in the winter) | 04:29 |
| LjL | but whether that *really* helps with COVID is unclear. it doesn't hurt, and i do it. | 04:30 |
| mrdata | will UK please publish info about delta variant among the vaccinated | 04:30 |
| LjL | there are some info | 04:30 |
| LjL | i don't have it on hand, but they have published some | 04:30 |
| LjL | i just don't have info that distinguishes between AZ and mRNA vaccines | 04:30 |
| mrdata | *may help* prevent infection or lessen symptoms, to me means it's worth using it since cost isnt high | 04:31 |
| LjL | (partly because it's a mess since they were given to different age groups etc) | 04:31 |
| LjL | the UK government publishes a fair amount of good quality info about their COVID surveillance | 04:31 |
| mrdata | most people in UK got AZ, didnt they? | 04:31 |
| LjL | it's kind of hard to find it in their convoluted site though | 04:31 |
| LjL | no | 04:31 |
| LjL | a lot did, but Pfizer was also widely used | 04:31 |
| mrdata | ok | 04:31 |
| joerg | actually it been always a suspicion that Pfizer didn't deliver to EU what they promised because UK was where one of the two fabs located and BoJo forbid any export | 04:33 |
| joerg | so UK should have an abundance of BNT/Pfizer compared to any EU country | 04:34 |
| specing | Is anyone else surprised that we still have no EU vaccine? | 04:34 |
| specing | pfizer,moderna,j&j all involve american megacorps, and az is in the UK | 04:35 |
| LjL | specing, BNT was developed by a German company, and they're setting up production too, despite Pfizer having produced most of it until now | 04:35 |
| LjL | mrdata, anyway some UK pointers: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-routine-variant-data-update https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201 | 04:36 |
| bn_mobile | Hi LjL | 04:39 |
| LjL | hi bn_mobile | 04:40 |
| bn_mobile | & channel | 04:40 |
| mrdata | ty | 04:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +26672 cases (now 5.9 million), +70 deaths (now 129783) since 23 hours ago — France: +29807 cases (now 6.2 million), +63 deaths (now 111958) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +3152 cases (now 1.9 million), +6 deaths (now 17969) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +890 cases (now 1.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 04:40 |
| bn_mobile | LjL: how's life? BTW, I got my 2nd dose today | 04:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Berlin court bans anti-lockdown protests: Judges in the German capital have moved to ban a number of weekend demonstrations amid fears they will lead to a rise in coronavirus infections. Police expect protesters to travel to Berlin nonetheless → https://is.gd/oUHmzk | 04:42 |
| bn_mobile | ~ 11hrs ago... feeling very sleepy | 04:42 |
| LjL | bn_mobile, congratulations. sleepiness is something i've heard from a few people | 04:42 |
| LjL | just sleep it out | 04:42 |
| mrdata | yes | 04:42 |
| LjL | life is... eh | 04:42 |
| bn_mobile | Yeah, hope that's all it is & I don't crave brains tomorrow :) | 04:43 |
| LjL | bn_mobile, i'm not sure i remember which vaccine you had | 04:44 |
| bn_mobile | Dunno, but it had an Umbrella logo :) | 04:45 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | bn_mobile: its gonna kill you and everyone else who got the death jab.write up a will get your affairs in order now. you have 18 months -3 years left if your lucky | 04:46 |
| bn_mobile | j/k Pfizer BnT | 04:46 |
| bn_mobile | Haha | 04:46 |
| joerg | I refuse to call it Pfizer, for me it's still BioNTech | 04:47 |
| joerg | short: BNT | 04:48 |
| LjL | O.o | 04:48 |
| LjL | anyway even if you feel worse tomorrow, really for many people it just goes away completely the following day | 04:48 |
| LjL | Thatdoomerguy[m], that's not funny | 04:48 |
| LjL | even though bn_mobile appears to be finding it funny | 04:48 |
| LjL | but i get to decide if it's funny | 04:48 |
| bn_mobile | joerg: yeah | 04:49 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | i wasent being funny bro | 04:49 |
| himesama | ok, guy walks into a bar, says ouch i hit my shin on a bar. funny? | 04:49 |
| LjL | oh come on, bn_mobile said "Pfizer BnT", maybe it should be "BnT Pfizer", but do we really want to go GNU/Linux over this | 04:49 |
| bn_mobile | Heh | 04:50 |
| bn_mobile | Pfizer is like the distributor | 04:50 |
| bn_mobile | BnT is the developer | 04:50 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | CDC has shares the vaccines. coincidence? | 04:50 |
| LjL | Pfizer physically makes it | 04:50 |
| LjL | bit more than just the distributor | 04:51 |
| bn_mobile | Oh | 04:51 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | how can you not see this isnt about a virus? | 04:51 |
| LjL | Thatdoomerguy[m], okay, then if you weren't being funny, and you were just trying to scare someone to death with dodgy information, do have a read of https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/blob/master/COVID-19-chat.md before you talk any further | 04:51 |
| joerg | well, no not entirely correct, iirc the german fabs are run by BioNTech | 04:52 |
| himesama | trust nothing. not even YOUR sources. | 04:52 |
| bn_mobile | Thatdoomerguy[m]: what are you going on about | 04:52 |
| joerg | or some of them | 04:52 |
| himesama | or is it in somebody's interest to spread random conspiracy theories? | 04:52 |
| bn_mobile | Trust no one mulder | 04:52 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | if you want come join my RDP reeee room you can discuss this stuff there. no nazi mods | 04:53 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | https://sdgs.un.org/goals | 04:53 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | agenda2030 is NOT a conspiracy | 04:53 |
| joerg | that's a sure way to achieve instaban | 04:54 |
| LjL | jesus, just when i had closed the matrix client | 04:54 |
| LjL | no it's not instant because my RAM is full and my swap is thrashing | 04:54 |
| bn_mobile | What is an RDP reee room? | 04:54 |
| himesama | some random un site isn't quite making the case... | 04:55 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | bn_mobile: sent you an invite. its full of info and links. come have a look | 04:55 |
| bn_mobile | Remote Desktop Protocol? | 04:55 |
| bn_mobile | Huh? | 04:55 |
| himesama | did he object to all 17 un goals? | 04:56 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | bn_mobile: if you want it to mean that sure. | 04:56 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | himesama: dude join the invite | 04:57 |
| LjL | wtf | 04:57 |
| mrdata | LjL, i browsed into this report, which looks at vaccine effectiveness against the delta variant, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007376/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_30.pdf | 04:57 |
| mrdata | among other stuff | 04:57 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | LjL: group chat is supported | 04:57 |
| himesama | Thatdoomerguy[m]: you read what i said even though you were parted? | 04:58 |
| himesama | did he object to all 17 un goals? | 04:58 |
| LjL | himesama, Matrix or the bridge is acting up | 04:58 |
| LjL | they didn't part, i banned them | 04:58 |
| LjL | but somehow they can still be sending messages to the IRC side | 04:58 |
| himesama | huh | 04:58 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | himesama: its not a random UN website but okay keep your head in the sand then | 04:59 |
| himesama | the un has lots of aspirational plans like that. they don't mean much in practice. | 04:59 |
| himesama | and i don't get why you would object to all 17 goals. | 04:59 |
| LjL-Matrix | Peter: have you ever encountered this before? it's not just a problem on the IRC side because I still see "@doomerlol:nerdsin.space is typing …" on Element | 04:59 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | lobster blood jab, you will see the adverse effects. VAERS reporting 14k deaths. hmm seems under reported but ok believe what you like.lol | 05:00 |
| himesama | why do you want others to believe that vaccines are more dangerous than the pandemic? | 05:00 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | look at alternative media not just the lies they feed you. look around on bitchute. | 05:00 |
| Thatdoomerguy[m] | get informed. think outside the box | 05:00 |
| himesama | i literally want to know the answer... | 05:01 |
| LjL | good lord | 05:01 |
| himesama | ok i am ready to think outside the box, sock it to me. answer the q. if you are there. :) | 05:01 |
| LjL | Matrix is definitely thinking outside the bow. how the fuck can a banned user, who's no longer in the room's user list, be seen as "is typing" messages, and then those messages actually show up on the IRC side (but not the Matrix side) | 05:02 |
| himesama | i never get the answer to that question... | 05:02 |
| himesama | what is bitchute? | 05:03 |
| himesama | oknevermind | 05:04 |
| mrdata | a horror show | 05:04 |
| mrdata | of conspiracy theory | 05:04 |
| mrdata | tinfoil hat level | 05:04 |
| LjL | sorry you didn't get your answer but this person was supposed to be banned several minutes ago | 05:04 |
| himesama | ok, so what about this theory? critical thinking skills have not been taught for a long time and that made generations of citizens unprepared for the rapid proliferation of falsehoods over the internet. and maybe they were not taught enough in the first place. and maybe humans are unteachable. but still. | 05:07 |
| mrdata | https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/bitchute/ | 05:08 |
| LjL | himesama, i don't know who/what you're addressing | 05:09 |
| himesama | i am addressing doom | 05:09 |
| joerg | it sounds however a tad off-topic | 05:09 |
| LjL | himesama, well they are no longer here | 05:10 |
| himesama | no, doom itself | 05:10 |
| LjL | O.o | 05:10 |
| himesama | i shall desist. except to say that i am trying to find a plausible reason why such insanity is at such levels. | 05:10 |
| himesama | anti-vax | 05:10 |
| LjL | mrdata, as to that UK report, i feel it's outdated. the efficacy estimates in it look way too optimistic, it would be even *better* for hospitalizations with Delta! that doesn't even match the UK's own risk reports | 05:11 |
| joerg | that's a good question. I wondered if those folks are so scared that the truth could be ... true that they search as much support and applause as possible for their delusionary universe they built for their own mind | 05:12 |
| mrdata | LjL, it was posted this week | 05:12 |
| bn_mobile | It's just distrust of govt/large corps | 05:12 |
| joerg | or simple trolling, cause trolling is fun for trolls | 05:12 |
| LjL | mrdata, but it looks at data up to 13 June | 05:13 |
| bn_mobile | VAERS has no validation system anyway, anyone can post | 05:13 |
| mrdata | yet they do look at delta variant, and they are responsible to say when they dont have enough data | 05:13 |
| bn_mobile | It's not a DB RCT or anything | 05:14 |
| LjL | mrdata, fair enough. i think data from other countries paint a different picture and at minimum there's something that doesn't add up | 05:14 |
| mrdata | ok | 05:14 |
| LjL | himesama, i think the reasons and groupthink mechanisms as well as potentially purposeful manipulation behind such things are well behind the purview of what i can attempt to understand | 05:16 |
| LjL | beyond* | 05:17 |
| mrdata | humans are more likely to believe info they get from multiple sources; lies travel fast because they resonate with people, who then neglect to fact check | 05:24 |
| mrdata | and delusion has an immune system | 05:26 |
| himesama | that would be the "life imitates high school" theory | 05:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 788: neuroCOVID with Kiran Thakur, MD: Kiran joins TWiV to discuss the findings of a team at Columbia University Medical Center on COVID-19 neuropathology, and the conclusion that SARS-CoV-2 does not reproduce in the central nervous system. → https://is.gd/PI0MAg | 05:59 |
| * Didigy[m] < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/libera.chat/15662c2033fb25a35a64d70b99c6846e339f3b23/message.txt > | 06:36 | |
| Didigy[m] | Latest video with Dr. Robert Malone, Dr. Peter Navarro giving an assessment as to where we are at re COVID-19 and 'vaccinations' - https://rumble.com/vkkriq-episode-1137-deep-dive-into-covid.html | 06:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Clubbers shun reopened venues in England amid confusion over Covid safety → https://is.gd/ZPMp1n | 06:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Who are the unvaccinated in America? There’s no one answer → https://is.gd/2vEP4v | 07:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Turkey: +22332 cases (now 5.7 million), +79 deaths (now 51332) since a day ago | 07:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Alabama, United States: +8144 cases (now 585607), +26 deaths (now 11536) since 3 days ago — Tokyo, Japan: +4058 cases (now 218036), +3 deaths (now 2293) since a day ago — New York, United States: +3072 cases (now 2.2 million) since a day ago — Kanagawa, Japan: +1580 cases (now 83419), +1 deaths (now 987) since a day ago | 07:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vaccination is not enough by itself to stop the spread of variants, study finds → https://is.gd/xVIQ8j | 07:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Sky News Australia banned from YouTube for seven days over Covid misinformation → https://is.gd/ny0y9X | 07:46 |
| Didigy[m] | Hmmm... | 07:53 |
| Didigy[m] | Pfizer CEO hasn't received vaccine shot - he's afraid of taking 1 shot when they are making Billions of doses - make you think WHY!!! | 07:53 |
| Didigy[m] | https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/pfizers-ceo-hasnt-gotten-his-covid-vaccine-yet-saying-he-doesnt-want-to-cut-in-line.html! | 07:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Why the delta variant is spreading COVID-19 so quickly — and what that means for Canada → https://is.gd/YVx6I6 | 07:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Puerto Rico: +493 cases (now 127088) since 21 hours ago | 07:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Short of the mandate they crave, US military leaders race to vaccinate troops → https://is.gd/VEouAK | 08:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Pakistan: +5026 cases (now 1.0 million), +62 deaths (now 23422) since a day ago — India: +41831 cases (now 31.7 million), +559 deaths (now 424182) since 23 hours ago | 08:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Vaccinated people may spread the virus, though rarely, CDC reports → https://is.gd/Ra0dSz | 08:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | August 01, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/ysx8I8 | 09:09 |
| pas42 | %cases NL | 09:29 |
| Brainstorm | pas42: In Netherlands, there are 1.9 million confirmed cases (10.8% of all people) and 17971 deaths (1.0% of cases) as of an hour ago. 15.8 million tests were done (11.9% positive). +1497 cases, +3 deaths since 4 hours ago. See https://coronadashboard.government.nl/ | 09:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Inside a COVID ICU, hopes fade as patients surge in → https://is.gd/5s8J74 | 09:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New deadlier coronavirus variant that could kill one in three infected people 'a realistic possibility', SAGE warns → https://is.gd/NR6qSj | 10:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: +591 cases (now 144264), +6 deaths (now 4462) since a day ago — Islamabad, Pakistan: +395 cases (now 87699), +2 deaths (now 803) since a day ago — Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan: +356 cases (now 24501), +3 deaths (now 625) since a day ago — Germany: +1832 cases (now 3.8 million), +170 deaths (now 92171) since 21 hours ago | 10:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Matters of the Mind: Impact of Covid on friendships → https://is.gd/VTGAui | 11:56 |
| de-facto[m] | > Hmmm... | 13:14 |
| de-facto[m] | Pfizer CEO hasn't received vaccine shot - he's afraid of taking 1 shot when they are making Billions of doses - make you think WHY!!! | 13:14 |
| de-facto[m] | https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/pfizers-ceo-hasnt-gotten-his-covid-vaccine-yet-saying-he-doesnt-want-to-cut-in-line.html! | 13:14 |
| de-facto[m] | Thats over 8 and a half months ago, article dec 14 2020, maybe thats relevant a little bit? | 13:14 |
| specing | vaccines werent really available back in dec 2020 | 13:16 |
| specing | it's totally irrelevant | 13:16 |
| specing | I mean, the article is | 13:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Sky News Australia barred for week by YouTube over Covid misinformation → https://is.gd/mruyMM | 13:20 |
| specing | haha | 13:21 |
| de-facto | yeah i was trying to cite Didigy[m] message above, only the very last line was typed by me, meaning the publication date is relevant info | 13:28 |
| de-facto | anyhow i agree, that article is irrelevant | 13:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK scientists believe it is 'almost certain' a coronavirus variant will emerge that beats current vaccines → https://is.gd/ytTrBK | 13:30 |
| de-facto | its how the majority of celebs behaved, they waited until its their turn and age group with getting the vaccination (and did not demand priority treatment just because of their celeb status), then some took it even publicly with TV live reporting etc | 13:31 |
| de-facto | imho perfectly reasonable behavior, nothing conspiracy about it | 13:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Libya: +4322 cases (now 253436), +39 deaths (now 3548) since 2 days ago — Germany: +2020 cases (now 3.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 13:35 |
| de-facto | heh interesting they also used logistic models for fitting COVID outbreaks (similar to the one i used for fitting vaccination rates) https://www.wolframcloud.com/obj/covid-19/Published/Logistic-Growth-Model-for-COVID-19.nb | 13:55 |
| de-facto | i guess its a good working model for all epidemiological features which have a time derivative that remotely looks like a Gaussian | 13:56 |
| de-facto | so all those "Gaussian alike" peaks in incidence correspond to a logistic function as increase in cumulative cases in that time window (added on top of what was accumulated prior to that peak) | 13:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +1981 cases (now 697370), +18 deaths (now 9875) since 23 hours ago | 14:06 |
| joerg | pro hint: *always* >>TAG<< citations, or they will get attributed to you | 14:12 |
| joerg | for even better measure, also include the nickname of the one you're citing | 14:13 |
| * joerg is still quite surprised the german R_t is on a steady state at ~1.15 to 1.2 and not going up further, with a tendency to even maybe go down again | 14:18 | |
| de-facto | thank you, seems i am just not pro enough to use the matrix quote feature, it does neither | 14:35 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(21)00248-6/fulltext | 14:35 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: The Lancet | The best science for better lives | 14:35 |
| de-facto | "Antigen rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for SARS-CoV-2 are fast, broadly available, and inexpensive. Despite this, reliable clinical performance data from large field studies is sparse." | 14:35 |
| de-facto | "The sensitivity of RDT compared to RT-qPCR was 42·57% (95% CI 33·38%–52·31%). The specificity was 99·68% (95% CI 99·48%–99·80%). Sensitivity declined with decreasing viral load from 100% in samples with a deduced viral load of ≥10^8 SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies per ml to 8·82% in samples with a viral load lower than 10^4 SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies per ml." | 14:36 |
| de-facto | "No significant differences in sensitivity or specificity could be observed between samples with and without spike protein variant B.1.1.7. The NPV in the study cohort was 98·84%; the PPV in persons with typical COVID-19 symptoms was 97·37%, and 28·57% in persons without or with atypical symptoms." | 14:36 |
| de-facto | "RDT are a reliable method to diagnose SARS-CoV-2 infection in persons with high viral load. RDT are a valuable addition to RT-qPCR testing, as they reliably detect infectious persons with high viral loads before RT-qPCR results are available." | 14:37 |
| de-facto | yet reading 42% of PCR sensitivity means to me they are NOT suitable to test travelers arrival etc in such cases we need quarantine and mandatory PCR one incubation time apart to detect variant imports | 14:39 |
| Didigy[m] | <de-facto> "yeah i was trying to cite Didigy..." <- Thanks for pointing that out - I hadn't noticed the date. I see he got his first shot in March 2021 | 14:44 |
| de-facto[m] | <Didigy[m]> "Thanks for pointing that out - I" <- no problem :) | 14:52 |
| de-facto | ah like this, reply to :) | 14:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Somalia: +53 cases (now 15456), +2 deaths (now 813) since 11 hours ago | 15:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Sky News Australia barred for week by YouTube over Covid misinformation → https://is.gd/8EzQ2g | 15:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Retired neurologist with Alzheimer’s knows firsthand the risks of Aduhelm: Like Aduhelm, other antibodies tested to reduce amyloid plaque caused swelling and microhemorrhages in some people. “That doesn’t mean we trivialize it,” said Dr. Sharon Cohen. “We monitor for it.” → https://is.gd/SomWIw | 15:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Pet care in the pandemic: Fighting misinformation, neglect has become the need of the hour → https://is.gd/Em46oM | 15:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: UK FM Sunak writes to PM Johnson to ease COVID travel curbs: Report → https://is.gd/CM5Bg4 | 15:57 |
| de-facto | Germany holidays: MV: 2021-06-21 2021-07-31; SH: 2021-06-21 2021-07-31; HH: 2021-06-24 2021-08-04; BE: 2021-06-24 2021-08-06; BB: 2021-06-24 2021-08-07; NW: 2021-07-05 2021-08-17; HE: 2021-07-19 2021-08-27; RP: 2021-07-19 2021-08-27; SL: 2021-07-19 2021-08-27; HB: 2021-07-22 2021-09-01; NI: 2021-07-22 2021-09-01; ST: 2021-07-22 2021-09-01; SN: 2021-07-26 2021-09-03; TH: 2021-07-26 2021-09-04; BW: 2021-07-29 2021-09-11; BY: 2021-07-30 2021-09-13 | 16:07 |
| de-facto | federal states sorted by ascending holiday end date | 16:09 |
| dTal | cool story bro | 16:09 |
| de-facto | hence the opening of schools will be in order: MV; SH; HH; BE; BB; NW; HE; RP; SL; HB; NI; ST; SN; TH; BW; BY i wonder how that will correlate with incidence | 16:10 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-07-29.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 16:14 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.rki.de: Wöchentlicher Lagebericht (RKI) | 16:14 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/LafhK25 https://i.imgur.com/Q6mEzMA.png <-- this shows incidence of Delta wave currently mainly is in the young in schoolage | 16:15 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Weekly incidence/100k by age groups - Album on Imgur | 16:15 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/h3meaOQ https://i.imgur.com/dfn70PY.png <-- this shows incidence in daycare centers for children as function of their status (open, restricted, closed, etc) | 16:17 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Incidence in Daycare centers for children - Album on Imgur | 16:17 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/GG41ADf https://i.imgur.com/CkoGWL5.png <-- this shows incidence in schools as function of their status (open, restricted, closed, etc) | 16:18 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Incidence in schools - Album on Imgur | 16:18 |
| de-facto | So with current Delta incidence in the age groups relevant to those gatherings in both, schools and daycare centers, together with the observation that there is strong correlation between opening them and incidence in those groups, i would expect that end date of summer holidays in those states correlate directly with rise in incidence with that Delta wave | 16:20 |
| de-facto | but we will see soon | 16:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Dr. Anthony Fauci predicts U.S. will not return to lockdowns despite Delta variant risks → https://is.gd/S5wVy4 | 16:59 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Ori olimpici, Draghi si congratula con Tamberi e Jacobs ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/ori-olimpici-draghi-si-congratula-con-tamberi-e-jacobs/17555 ) | 17:03 | |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Cuba: +9747 cases (now 394343), +87 deaths (now 2845) since 19 hours ago — Philippines: +8724 cases (now 1.6 million), +127 deaths (now 28016) since a day ago — Bangladesh: +14844 cases (now 1.3 million), +231 deaths (now 20916) since a day ago | 17:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Florida Reports A New Record With More Than 21,000 COVID-19 Cases On Saturday: Florida is quickly becoming the country's epicenter for COVID-19 as the state saw a 50% increase over the last week in new cases. → https://is.gd/Fybd5e | 17:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The vindication of AstraZeneca: A vaccine trashed by Macron, politicised by Europe but quietly saving lives across the world → https://is.gd/SSQ3RO | 17:40 |
| Arsanerit | schools reopen tomorrow in some states in Germany I think | 17:59 |
| LjL | what a painfully biased article above | 18:00 |
| LjL | "One of the most harrowing scenes emerged when the Malawi health authorities incinerated more than 19,000 expired doses to try to bolster public confidence and reassure the public only safe vaccines would be used. South Africa had already rejected its Indian-made AstraZeneca, instead giving its doses to neighbouring countries." ← this after saying it was the EU that "politicized" it | 18:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): COVID19: Paradoxical Sex-Specific Patterns of Autoantibodies Response to SARS-CoV-2 Infection → https://is.gd/8gg8TW | 18:01 |
| LjL | and the "event likelihood" chart where the chance of dying from AZ blootclot is 1 in 1 million is... like... no, it's not | 18:02 |
| LjL | even the more conservative estimates put it at higher than that | 18:03 |
| de-facto | imho vaccinations are about introducing the immune system to the s-protein in a safe and controlled way, hence lowering the probability to end up in hospital after contamination | 18:04 |
| de-facto | of course, with the number of vaccinated rising, being the majority, also the majority of infections will be breakthrough cases, but that should not be misunderstood, its due to the fact that most of population is vaccinated even with significantly lowered risk of infection after vaccination | 18:06 |
| de-facto | its pretty clear after looking at this well done diagram here https://i.imgur.com/JFPRsMh.jpg | 18:08 |
| de-facto | what i wanted to say is that rejecting a shot available / offered means deciding for higher risk of hospitalization, so its a bad decision that they let AZ doses expire etc | 18:10 |
| LjL | wait, Matrix has fixed the reply format? | 18:18 |
| LjL | the Matrix bridge* | 18:18 |
| LjL | https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/ovq40n/sky_news_australia_barred_for_week_by_youtube/ ← i think this may be going a little too far | 18:23 |
| dTal | why | 18:24 |
| dTal | should "mainstream media" get a pass for disinfo | 18:25 |
| dTal | if anything they should be held to an even higher standard | 18:25 |
| LjL | no, i think it's going too far for individuals too, just i'll probably be less likely to find articles about it | 18:25 |
| dTal | and sky news australia is literal scum | 18:25 |
| Arsanerit | literal? | 18:26 |
| dTal | the tech platforms already censor in their own interest, they might as well censor in the public good while they're at it | 18:26 |
| dTal | Arsanerit: yes, metaphorically *literal* scum | 18:27 |
| LjL | wait until they do the former under the guise of the latter | 18:27 |
| Arsanerit | people shouldn't be getting their news from tech platforms | 18:27 |
| LjL | Google has had recent beef with Australia's news media and government over their "anti Google News" law | 18:27 |
| dTal | where should they be getting their news from? the neighbors? | 18:28 |
| Arsanerit | surely sky news can host videos on their own website | 18:28 |
| Arsanerit | from trained journalists | 18:28 |
| dTal | lmao | 18:29 |
| LjL | how do we determine who's "trained" in the relevant way? | 18:29 |
| dTal | and why can't they post on youtube same as everyone else | 18:29 |
| Arsanerit | by trusting the hiring decisions of reliable news media | 18:29 |
| dTal | is someone only a "trained journalist" if they public on a piece of paper | 18:30 |
| dTal | *publish | 18:30 |
| Arsanerit | people can access news media directly, rather than filtered by youtube, twitter, or facebook | 18:30 |
| dTal | look I don't disagree with you ideologically but what you're suggesting ignores how we got where we are | 18:31 |
| Arsanerit | anyone can post on youtube as far as I'm concerned, but I think it's a bad idea to use youtube as a source of news, due to the intransparent algorithmic personalised filtering | 18:31 |
| dTal | there seems to be a steady effect driving centralization of services | 18:32 |
| Arsanerit | All news is filtered, but I prefer the filter by an editorial panel at a particular news medium, whether it's TV, radio, newspaper, or news website, than the filter by an automated opaque algorithm that filters based on "my preferences". | 18:32 |
| dTal | we used to have blogs, now we have TwitFace | 18:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Germany to recommend coronavirus vaccines for those 12-17 → https://is.gd/4XMOeV | 18:32 |
| dTal | you're basically saying you prefer to be manipulated on purpose by humans rather than on accident by machines | 18:33 |
| Arsanerit | yes | 18:33 |
| dTal | I wouldn't | 18:33 |
| dTal | humans are better at it | 18:33 |
| dTal | traditional news media is a shitty model | 18:34 |
| dTal | the new model is shitty too, in different ways | 18:34 |
| Arsanerit | I think traditional news media are a fine model. A filter is inevitable, but at least the filter I subscribe to is somewhat democratically controlled by cooperative members. | 18:34 |
| Arsanerit | I am distrustful of corporate owned news media, though | 18:35 |
| dTal | the ideal future to me is something more decentralized, with people collecting and publishing primary sources, and other people offering analyses, and webs of trust to determine whose analyses are worth listening to | 18:35 |
| LjL | de-facto, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/31/us/covid-san-francisco-hospital-delta.html do you maths on this, but first you'll need to find how many of the total healthcare workers in those hospitals are vaccinated :D (it could be a good example of what you say, though, which i'm not really sure i even agree is what is happening, because an outbreak where "most" people are vaccinated may not mean much if all those people are healthcare workers who are *almost all* | 18:36 |
| LjL | vaccinated) | 18:36 |
| Arsanerit | Journalism, in particular investigative journalism, is a profession and costs money. Those people collecting and publishing primary sources need to earn a living and pay for their expenses. | 18:36 |
| LjL | hmm couple of minutes ago i thought something nixonix had said would be a decent counterexample or food for thought wrt what you're saying but now i forgot | 18:37 |
| LjL | it wasn't his fondness for the Daily Mail, though | 18:37 |
| Arsanerit | The newspaper I read and pay for is owned by a cooperative of journalists and readers. It certainly has a bias in its news selection, like every source does, but this bias is quite clear and if the general members meeting decides there should be more focus on particular other topics then that will be so (provided it can be paid for). | 18:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +5320 cases (now 4.4 million), +5 deaths (now 128068) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +16557 cases (now 5.9 million) since 16 hours ago | 18:40 |
| de-facto | LjL, hmm there is nothing in there to normalize those absolute numbers, e.g. something like X out of Y etc, numbers presented like in the article of nytimes above are meaningless because they dont allow any relative statement to be derived from absolute numbers | 18:47 |
| LjL | yeah :( | 18:47 |
| LjL | and it's not from a study but from some "hospital officer" saying that, it looks like | 18:47 |
| LjL | so maybe not a lot of chances of reconstructing the total numbers | 18:48 |
| de-facto | for vaccine efficacy we would neat attack rates, e.g. X out of Y, hence attack rate = X/Y and compare attack rate in vaccinated (ARV) wiht those unvaccinated (ARU) to determine relative risk RR = ARV / ARU and by that the vaccine efficacy VE = 1 - RR = 1 - ARV / ARU | 18:48 |
| de-facto | we would need* | 18:49 |
| de-facto | we would need "cases in cohort" kind of relative statements | 18:49 |
| de-facto | but yeah as you said, probably very high vaccination prevalence in healthcare workers, so there simply are almost no healthcare workers left to contribute unvaccinated (or partly vaccinated) infections to incidence | 18:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China reports 75 new COVID-19 cases as Delta cluster expands → https://is.gd/hdfy06 | 18:53 |
| de-facto | thats why i dont like articles like "whoa X infections in vaccinated found!" because its simply to be expected with high vaccination rates that most of those appear in the majority of people (hence the vaccinated) | 18:54 |
| Arsanerit | can we reach herd immunity? | 18:55 |
| LjL | "This includes requiring all employees and trainees to comply with the new UC-systemwide Covid-19 vaccination mandate, with limited exceptions for medical or religious exemptions." ← religious exemptions? are they serious? | 18:55 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, not with the current vaccines | 18:55 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, i dont think we can with current numbers of reproduction in Delta and current vaccines, at least not without additional NPIs, but i think that was pretty clear since Delta arived | 18:56 |
| de-facto | *arrived | 18:56 |
| Arsanerit | I thought that with Delta we could reach it with 85% vaccinated or recovered? | 18:57 |
| de-facto | we can reach it, but not without additional restrictions | 18:57 |
| Arsanerit | How strong restrictions? Can schools be open? | 18:58 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, have you seen my fit for 1st doses vaccines give in Germany? | 18:58 |
| Arsanerit | No. | 18:58 |
| Arsanerit | Could you link it again? | 18:58 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/tKV9vP7 https://i.imgur.com/TzO87Bb.png "COVID Germany: People received 1st vaccination dose v[t] = 54E6 / (1 + Exp[(130 - t) / 28])" data: https://impfdashboard.de/static/data/germany_vaccinations_timeseries_v2.tsv | 18:58 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: People received 1st vaccination dose - Album on Imgur | 18:58 |
| de-facto | fit function for first dose vaccinations in Germany, its the logistic function v[t] = 54E6 / (1 + Exp[(130 - t) / 28]) with a maximum at 54M hence 54M / 84M ~ 64% will be our current asymptotic vaccination value | 18:59 |
| LjL | vaccinated people can still catch COVID just fine, and they also can infect others once they've caught it, with no real difference compared to unvaccinated people | 18:59 |
| LjL | they're less likely to catch it, sure | 18:59 |
| LjL | but i don't see how that could provide for herd immunity | 18:59 |
| de-facto | hence 2 vaccinated out of each 3 Germany is the asymptotic expectation value if things continue as they progress right now in Germany | 18:59 |
| LjL | 60-70% seemed like an extremely optimistic estimate even with the original variant... nevermind Delta | 18:59 |
| de-facto | not enough for herd immunity not even with the original Wuhan version | 18:59 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: why do you think that the logistic function is a good fit? Purely empirically because it fits the data so far, or are there other considerations? | 19:00 |
| LjL | oh yeah i meant to ask | 19:01 |
| de-facto | if reproduces the data very well so far, its time derivative also fits quite well with the vaccination rates | 19:01 |
| LjL | de-facto> so all those "Gaussian alike" peaks in incidence correspond to a logistic function ← is it just that a logistic function happens to appear like a good fit, or have you found some concrete reason for the way the peaks often look "gaussian"? | 19:01 |
| Arsanerit | But the limiting factors are changing; until recently, the limiting factor was vaccine availability, now the limiting factor is becoming people's willingness. Modelling the latter would seem harder. | 19:02 |
| de-facto | i am pretty sure it could also be deduced by solving some differential equations for a the epidemiological model describing the situation, though i have to admit i did not do that yet | 19:03 |
| Arsanerit | Increases in incidence, changes in government policy, or easier availability, may all impact people's willingness to get vaccinated. | 19:03 |
| Arsanerit | I would expect that as the limiting factor changes, so does the shape of the curve. | 19:03 |
| de-facto | i hope so because 64% is horribly low | 19:04 |
| LjL | i don't know if people all go on holiday en masse in Germany like they do in Italy in August, but maybe once September comes the vaccinations will pick up some pace against | 19:04 |
| LjL | again* | 19:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Jamaica: +342 cases (now 53237), +6 deaths (now 1196) since 21 hours ago | 19:04 |
| Arsanerit | Anecdotally, it seems that so far when there are "spontaneous vaccination" actions, they appear well attended. | 19:05 |
| de-facto | also in addition we have recoveries, those have some (unknown) overlap with vaccinated, so that also contributes to seroprevalence in a population | 19:05 |
| de-facto | yet since we dont have an ongoing seroprevalence monitoring in Germany (e.g. as UK does have it) we dont really know those numbers unfortunately | 19:05 |
| de-facto | at least i dont know of any that claims to be nationwide representative for seroprevalence | 19:06 |
| Arsanerit | Is seroprevaence monitoring the same as antibody monitoring? | 19:06 |
| de-facto | yes | 19:06 |
| Arsanerit | I hope they won't have to close schools again. That's pretty bad for kids, in particular kids from more challenging backgrounds. | 19:06 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: https://www.schulferien.org/deutschland/feriendichte/2021/ shows what % of Germans have school holidays per day throughout the year | 19:07 |
| Arsanerit | This weekend is the only weekend than 100% of Germans have school holidays | 19:07 |
| Arsanerit | First states started on 21 June, last states last until 13 September. | 19:08 |
| de-facto | i guess we will see soon, tomorrow they open in MV, SH, Wednesday in HH, next week in BE, ... | 19:08 |
| de-facto | tbh i expect a Delta wave in the kids | 19:09 |
| de-facto | hopefully they wont get harm for it | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | but how about the discussion that the incidence rate alone is not enough to focus on, because many vulnerable people are vaccinated so hospitalisation rates would be less? | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | In my town there was an action today to vaccinate 12-18 year olds without appointment. | 19:10 |
| de-facto | incidence is the cause of our problems, hence its the earliest and best metric we have | 19:10 |
| de-facto | hospitalizations of course are important, but happen too late to react | 19:11 |
| Arsanerit | yes, but the ratio of future hospitalisations vs current incidence depends on vaccination rate, doesn't it? | 19:11 |
| Arsanerit | An incidence of 50 is less bad if 65% are fully vaccinated than if nobody is vaccinated? | 19:11 |
| de-facto | so imho we should look at both, incidence (per age group and vaccinated/unvaccinated) but also at hospitalization rates, yet the primary metric should be incidence per age group | 19:11 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, yes | 19:12 |
| Arsanerit | And if most of the infected people are children and teenagers who are very unlikely to face serious consequneces, it probably won't lead to overloaded hospitals and triage? | 19:12 |
| de-facto | i think this here is the important heatmap, we should watch that very carefully https://imgur.com/a/LafhK25 https://i.imgur.com/Q6mEzMA.png | 19:13 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, wow, very different from here, everyone in school has around 3 months of holidays in the summer | 19:13 |
| Arsanerit | I think school holidays are 6 weeks in Germany? | 19:13 |
| de-facto | i posted all the details above | 19:14 |
| Arsanerit | In The Netherlands it's 6-7 weeks, I think Germany is similar but I'm not sure. | 19:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Soviet "Punitive medicine" recreated in Russia again! Murmansk court forced Violetta Grudina (head of Navalny's headquarters in Murmansk) into coronavirus hospital, despite the fact that the test showed a negative result, just a few weeks after she started her election campaign in Murmansk. → https://is.gd/UFVtoc | 19:14 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: interesting, I didn't know those were monitored per age group | 19:14 |
| Arsanerit | 65+ incidence very different from last December | 19:15 |
| Arsanerit | is there a vaccination rate per age group published? | 19:15 |
| Arsanerit | what's the vaccination rate for 75+? | 19:15 |
| * Arsanerit was checked twice for his vaccination pass during his cycling trip to Italy, once in Bavaria and once in Tyrol. | 19:16 | |
| LjL | do you need the pass for movement inside Germany now? | 19:17 |
| LjL | and Austria apparently? | 19:17 |
| LjL | or was that when crossing borders | 19:17 |
| Arsanerit | Once for staying on campground in Bavaria, once for reserving restaurant in Austria. | 19:18 |
| LjL | ah | 19:18 |
| Arsanerit | In theory it's needed for any tourist accommodation in Germany, or at least in Bavaria where I stayed almost every night I was in Germany, but enforcement varies widely. At once place they didn't even take my name. | 19:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +2 deaths (now 26600) since 18 hours ago | 19:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK Covid cases are now falling rapidly despite the easing of lockdowns, and it’s surprising the experts → https://is.gd/rMXXKC | 19:34 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, for Germany Incidence by age groups https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Altersverteilung.html and (cumulative) Vaccinations by age group https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquotenmonitoring.html | 19:43 |
| de-facto | .title https://github.com/robert-koch-institut/COVID-19-Impfungen_in_Deutschland | 19:46 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From github.com: GitHub - robert-koch-institut/COVID-19-Impfungen_in_Deutschland: Die COVID-19-Impfung kann einen Wendepunkt in der Kontrolle der COVID-19-Pandemie darstellen und erfährt daher hohes Maß an [...] | 19:46 |
| LjL | "UK Covid cases are now falling rapidly despite the easing of lockdowns, and it’s surprising the experts" ← seriously, why does this keep happening? a logistic function may match it, but why physically? have they reached herd immunity (highly doubt it, with delta)? you say an epidemiological model would probably explain it but what do you put in for the reasons why it goes down just as it went up? | 19:48 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, this here contains date, age-group and location https://github.com/robert-koch-institut/COVID-19-Impfungen_in_Deutschland/blob/master/Aktuell_Deutschland_Landkreise_COVID-19-Impfungen.csv | 19:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Thousands of anti-lockdown demonstrators defied a court-ordered protest ban and gathered in the streets of Berlin, resulting in scuffles with police. Police said some protesters had "harassed and attacked" officers and ignored roadblocks, disrupting traffic in parts of the German capital → https://is.gd/z65NT1 | 19:55 |
| de-facto | in UK the Delta wave mainly is taking place in the young https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1503/age/index.html | 20:02 |
| de-facto | hence i assume it "fills the serprevalence gap" in the young https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1484/countriesbyage/index.html | 20:03 |
| de-facto | in epidemics we always need to look at incidence and seroprevalence per cohort, e.g. age group because its where socal graphs are connected the most densely, hence highest contributions to contact rates | 20:04 |
| de-facto | therefore incidence and reproduction is most densely coupled inside such graphs, but of course there also are interconnections between different cohorts, at the places where both spend time together | 20:04 |
| de-facto | reproduction = contact_rate * transmissibility * duration_of_shedding_virus hence if contact_rate stays more or less the same (as no additional restrictions) reproduction must go down due to the product of transmissibility * duration_of_shedding, and it makes sense that recently recovered are unlikely to directly get another infection (hence transmissibility for contacts is very low for some time) and also if they get reinfected their viral load and | 20:08 |
| de-facto | duration of shedding probably is reduced significantly | 20:08 |
| de-facto | what do you think LjL ? | 20:09 |
| LjL | i don't understand the maths but "but of course there also are interconnections between different cohorts" is what makes me a bit skeptical that this is why we get such dramatic peaks that later dramatically go down | 20:19 |
| LjL | meanwhile, the vaccine booking system of Latium has been hacked, with some ransomware involved, according to TV | 20:20 |
| de-facto | the dramatic peaks happen within susceptible (e.g. low current seroprevalence) cohorts that are interconnected densely (such as young party folks) | 20:25 |
| de-facto | they also have connections outside their group, but maybe the seroprevalence is already different (e.g. in their families etc) | 20:26 |
| de-facto | otherwise we would see also incidence raising much more in those groups, if it was not dampened by seroprevalence | 20:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK scientists believe it is 'almost certain' a coronavirus variant will emerge that beats current vaccines → https://is.gd/aGozop | 20:26 |
| de-facto | ^^ yeah we already discussed that one https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021 | 20:29 |
| LjL | I'm afraid we'll see that posted a few times | 20:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): What is the stake on ADE as of now?: I looked around but couldn't find any semi-definitive conclusion on whereas antibody dependent enhancement is something that could happen or not. Do you guys have links to read? → https://is.gd/zL8Tei | 20:37 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: thanks | 20:47 |
| Turbo_Tech | Afternoon Ladies and Gents | 21:00 |
| nixonix | from finnish news (another article added "Good news" in front): | 21:31 |
| nixonix | The likelihood of developing symptoms of prolonged coronavirus disease after one month of infection is significantly lower in those who received two doses of the vaccine, according to a Short Report on Long Covid commissioned by the British Advisory Scientific Emergency Team (SAGE) | 21:31 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/two-vaccine-doses-halves-long-covid-risk-uk-study-finds-8f0bdx29m | 21:32 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.thetimes.co.uk: Two vaccine doses halves long Covid risk, UK study finds | News | The Times | 21:32 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.thetimes.co.uk: Two vaccine doses halves long Covid risk, UK study finds | News | The Times | 21:32 |
| nixonix | great... | 21:32 |
| nixonix | https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007511/S1327_Short_Long_COVID_report.pdf | 21:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +32174 cases (now 6.2 million) since 23 hours ago | 21:34 |
| LjL | nixonix, didn't you say it was 4% based on something a couple of days ago? or someone else did? | 21:38 |
| nixonix | seems familiar figure, i wonder where it was from | 21:39 |
| nixonix | but anyways, long covid for non-vaccinated, its been 10-50% or so depending on study (that norwegian was the highest i think) | 21:40 |
| Arsanerit | is long covid clearly enough defined? | 21:40 |
| LjL | Libera/##covid-19/2021-07-31.log:[00:54:07] <nixonix> a finnish neurologist and chief physician says around 30% gets long covid, but only about 4% those vaccinated (how about after 6 months or more?) | 21:41 |
| nixonix | in usa they seem to use 4 weeks for lc. in europe its usually 12 weeks (over 4 would be persistent) | 21:41 |
| LjL | nixonix, that's a pretty big range | 21:41 |
| LjL | yeah the definition is probably part of why the range is big | 21:41 |
| nixonix | yeah, i linked that translated article couple of days ago, i think it was the same neurologist. either that article or another one where he was interviewed. Roine or something like that | 21:42 |
| LjL | if it just "halves" long covid risk, anyway, that's... better than nothing, but a bit underwhelming :( | 21:43 |
| nixonix | https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fi&tl=en&u=https://www.iltalehti.fi/terveysuutiset/a/b1367256-1f2f-4339-b722-7f45ec57ebb8 | 21:43 |
| nixonix | there it was | 21:43 |
| LjL | nixonix, did you see https://serotracker.com/ ? it's something interesting de-facto found but i *think* you were already gone when he linked that | 21:44 |
| nixonix | yeah, then how long from the second dose? dont expect full halving after 5 months or so... | 21:44 |
| nixonix | arcgis - doesnt work with my browser. ill check that later in vm or when i bother to change the webgl settings (i suppose its the reason) | 21:46 |
| LjL | nixonix, but, although i'm giving this report only a very brief look, it seems to consider that only a small percentage of people have "long covid" in the first place, while that finnish page says about 50% still have symptoms after six months. maybe when you consider a broader range of symptoms, the efficacy of the vaccine in preventing them is higher, while if you look at only very serious symptoms, it is lower | 21:46 |
| LjL | i don't know, its interface isn't great for sure | 21:46 |
| Turbo_Tech | They need to do a study that looks at long term side effects and dietary intake of Sugar. | 21:47 |
| nixonix | btw, while im not big believer in serological survey results, they got something like 90% in uk. if its anything close the truth, it looks like there are not many people who dont produce antibodies after infection | 21:49 |
| nixonix | considering vaccinations, sensitivity that is never perfect, and some people got the infection 18 months ago, so mostly waned off | 21:49 |
| nixonix | but considering that some part of self-reported long covid arent really from infection, its probably more than half. also maybe the most severe consequences are more reduced | 21:53 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/how-long-will-vaccines-continue-to-protect-against-covid-19-30-july-2021 | 22:06 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.gov.uk: How long will vaccines continue to protect against COVID-19?, 30 July 2021 - GOV.UK | 22:06 |
| de-facto | also interesting paper from nixonix above, supporting the theory that vaccinations are a good "controlled" way to train the immune system to handle the s-protein without freaking out about it | 22:08 |
| de-facto | with controlled i mean exact dosing and no self-replication of antigen etc | 22:08 |
| nixonix | that figure 3... | 22:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Lesotho: +695 cases (now 13603), +3 deaths (now 377) since 3 days ago | 22:11 |
| de-facto | nixonix, actually i know some friends (and i did experience the same) having headache after first dose, but not after second dose anymore | 22:13 |
| de-facto | so maybe its also some light immune (autoimmune?) reaction that settled after second dose? | 22:14 |
| de-facto | my theory is that the s-protein provokes the immune system with a reaction that causes all those problems, but everytime it is re-challenged with that antigen it learns how to deal with it more efficiently and without freaking out as much as last time | 22:15 |
| nixonix | with mrna vaccines, sides effects are usually stronger after the 2nd dose. other way with vector vaxes | 22:15 |
| de-facto | thats what i heard too, but my personal experience is the opposite (and reports from my friends support that), ok not statistically relevant, only anecdotal stories | 22:16 |
| nixonix | and it seems some of it comes from immediate immune reaction, during the next couple days. then after the abs are produced, in a week or so, some people get symptoms from that too | 22:17 |
| de-facto | i mean pure s-protein, so if one would use the that antigen exposed in the right orientation (maybe stuck into some molecule conglomerate to stabilize orientation, like Novavax) maybe that would be testable | 22:19 |
| nixonix | which is no wonder, they could attach to some receptors and who knows what they cause. still a lot safer than actual infection | 22:19 |
| de-facto | side effects with repeated challenge, probably some declining function | 22:19 |
| de-facto | (but that is speculation, i dont know that) | 22:20 |
| de-facto | the antibody reaction gets refined with each challenge too, B-cells optimizing antigenic affinity of their output etc | 22:21 |
| de-facto | then on re-challenge broadening (and raising) it again, because boosting looks like a breakthrough on the radar of the immune system | 22:22 |
| de-facto | but probably also if some antibodies would bind to own cells there should be mechanisms to downregulate those when re-challenged with the real antigen (e.g. boosting, updating)? | 22:24 |
| * joerg always finds statements like two-vaccine-doses-halves-long-covid-risk quite confusing, as it's pretty unclear what's the reference. Half the number of cases in a double-blind-test, based on cases/million, or based on a reference cohort of infected but unvaccinated, or what? | 22:25 | |
| de-facto | they say "odds ratio" in that paper | 22:26 |
| de-facto | https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007511/S1327_Short_Long_COVID_report.pdf fig 3 | 22:26 |
| joerg | if it is halve the percentage of unvaccinated symptomatic covid cases developing LC, on top of the 80% reduced chance to even get symptomatic covid , then that's not too bad | 22:30 |
| Arsanerit | I hope that in the original paper it is more clearly defined. | 22:30 |
| de-facto | maybe that also would be related to long covid being mitigated by vaccinations, e.g. re-calibrating the immune response? or higher efficacy with heterologous vaccination schemes that have the same antigen in common | 22:31 |
| joerg | if it halves the chance to get LC in relation the the risk an unvaccinated individual has, then oh my | 22:31 |
| de-facto | "In all age groups the odds of experiencing symptoms for more than 28 days after post-vaccination infection was approximately halved by two vaccinations. Given that vaccinated individuals have a reduced risk of infection overall, this suggests that risk of Long COVID is substantially reduced in individuals who have received double vaccination." | 22:33 |
| de-facto | its written directly above Fig 3 | 22:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +547 deaths (now 424351) since 23 hours ago | 22:36 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.jpost.com/%20israel-pfizer-news/is-israel-or-the-uk-right-when-it-comes-to-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-674766 | 22:36 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.jpost.com: Is Israel or UK right about COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness? - The Jerusalem Post | 22:36 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1420533636760211462 | 22:38 |
| nixonix | In addition, protection from severe illness has also recorded a sharp drop of up to 60% among those who were inoculated in the early stages of the vaccine rollout | 22:40 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.ynetnews.com/health_science/article/bytq34n0u | 22:40 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.ynetnews.com: Israel reports sharp decline in Pfizer coronavirus vaccine efficacy | 22:40 |
| nixonix | maybe they will have more information soon | 22:40 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.ncl.ac.uk/press/articles/latest/2021/07/pfizervaccineimmunity/ | 22:43 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ncl.ac.uk: Pfizer vaccine immunity - Press Office - Newcastle University | 22:43 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ncl.ac.uk: Pfizer vaccine immunity - Press Office - Newcastle University | 22:43 |
| Arsanerit | 3rd dose? | 22:43 |
| de-facto | https://www.pitch-study.org/PITCH_Dosing_Interval_23072021.pdf | 22:43 |
| de-facto | .title | 22:43 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.pitch-study.org: Microsoft Word - 20210716_PITCH_Regimen_submission_FINAL.docx | 22:43 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, afaik their strategy from high risk (hence with longest duration since booster) to lower | 22:44 |
| Turbo_Tech | Here is a question. Are there things that can be added as an adjevent to make a vaccine more effective? | 22:44 |
| de-facto | yes the classic ones, but afaik neither the vector vaccines nor the mRNA ones are in need for those | 22:45 |
| Turbo_Tech | Well what are things that people can take that can increase T-cell response? | 22:46 |
| Turbo_Tech | As well as decrease overall inflammation. | 22:46 |
| de-facto | they already produce enough reactogenicity, afaik their dose escalation studies tried to find an acceptable level for those side effects, so not sure if adding adjuvants would not rise side effects beyond an acceptable level | 22:46 |
| de-facto | not sure but there are some things that increase t-cell activity | 22:46 |
| Turbo_Tech | There are things over the counter that can Melatonin being one of them if you can get it. | 22:47 |
| Turbo_Tech | They are studying it now. | 22:47 |
| de-facto | ah it was NK cells that i had in mind | 22:47 |
| Turbo_Tech | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7481341/ | 22:48 |
| Turbo_Tech | I think we have done significant Damage to our immune systems with our diets. | 22:49 |
| Turbo_Tech | Data is pointing to that but no one seems to be looking at it. | 22:49 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(21)00162-9/fulltext | 22:50 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.thelancet.com: A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation - The Lancet Regional Health – Europe | 22:50 |
| de-facto | Turbo_Tech, i have seen some papers about black pepper (Piper nigrum) and cardamom (Elettaria cardamomum) influencing that in a dose dependent way, yet i am not quite sure what to think about those | 22:50 |
| LjL | nixonix, is that as bleak as the UK document, should i take an antidepressant before reading it | 22:51 |
| Turbo_Tech | Vitamin D is very important for T-cells as well. | 22:52 |
| nixonix | winter is coming. wait for the next summer, and ill post something that will cheer you up | 22:53 |
| de-facto | .title https://sci-hub.se/10.1089/jmf.2009.1131 | 22:53 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From sci-hub.se: Sci-Hub | In Vitro Investigation of the Potential Immunomodulatory and Anti-Cancer Activities of Black Pepper (Piper nigrum) and Cardamom (Elettaria cardamomum). Journal of Medicinal Food, 13(2), [...] | 22:53 |
| de-facto | but i am not quite sure what to think about that | 22:53 |
| Turbo_Tech | Matter of fact I am noticing people who have higher vitamin D levels (Who are Sars CoV-2 positive)have higher absolute and lymphocyte percents in their blood. | 22:53 |
| Turbo_Tech | It just seems like no one wants to look at this. | 22:54 |
| nixonix | i think my q10 capsules have a bit piperine | 22:54 |
| Turbo_Tech | I was never a holistic person being a Clinical laboratory scientist, but since covid there is a boat load of data on these agents in immunity in general. | 22:55 |
| Turbo_Tech | Anyway, I am not trying to sidetrack the conversation. | 22:56 |
| Turbo_Tech | There is so much information out there. | 22:56 |
| nixonix | .title http://ft.com/content/cb86d9a8-665d-467e-9b92-4b80e905060c https://archive.is/jyhOj | 22:56 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From ft.com: Subscribe to read | Financial Times | 22:56 |
| nixonix | According to the latest estimate by the Office for National Statistics, 92 per cent of adults in England and Wales have antibodies to Sars-Cov-2 in their blood, through vaccination or previous infection. | 22:58 |
| Turbo_Tech | Ultimately getting the Vaccine then getting the virus is probably provides the best outcome as far as immunity is concerened. | 22:58 |
| nixonix | Although most scientists now shy away from the term “herd immunity”, because of its past connotation of letting the virus rip through the population with little control, a growing majority of people now have some immune protection against Covid-19 | 22:58 |
| LjL | "Vaccines are, however, still likely to reduce transmissibility even if breakthrough infection occurs [[34]]" I have a feeling even though this paper has just been published, it doesn't really cover the latest developments with Delta | 22:59 |
| nixonix | id rather have no infection. but if i must, then with no permanent damage to brain etc | 22:59 |
| Turbo_Tech | If that research was peer reviewed there is no way it took into account the recent CDC leaked information. | 23:00 |
| nixonix | those finnish healthcare officials who have commented breakthroughs etc lately, only use british information, and pay no attention to israels findings | 23:01 |
| LjL | Turbo_Tech, afaik what was leaked was just their recommendations to change guidance, but the study that led to that is published | 23:02 |
| nixonix | that forecast paper, theres been so many epidemiological forecasts gone wrong, that they should only have entertainment value | 23:03 |
| LjL | okay, then since i'm not really entertained by them, i'll stop reading ;( | 23:04 |
| LjL | anyway it barely talks about Delta | 23:04 |
| LjL | "The Delta (B.1.617.2) variant appears to be more transmissible than previous strains" that's about the extent of it | 23:04 |
| LjL | i didn't need the CDC leak to know that Delta was a game changer | 23:05 |
| nixonix | i thought that in uk, in the end of this week we could see hints if the cases are turning back up or not, and maybe confirmation in a week | 23:05 |
| LjL | in a strange bout of optimism - i think they'll keep going down | 23:06 |
| nixonix | lets see what ferguson and ic think, prob next week coming their estimate | 23:07 |
| nixonix | ons has survey data, but the latest is up to 24th july | 23:07 |
| nixonix | comparing it to the week older, it was increasing, though | 23:07 |
| nixonix | and the daily cases started to go down from around july 15th or so | 23:08 |
| LjL | so are they testing less or something? | 23:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Sky News Australia barred for week by YouTube over Covid misinformation → https://is.gd/KMWBTd | 23:12 |
| Turbo_Tech | I will say that we have not had any positives on my night shift in a few days. Our hospital admissions are stable below 20 and they hit a peak of 22 last week. | 23:12 |
| Turbo_Tech | I am in Texas | 23:12 |
| nixonix | no, it isnt that. maybe ons data is wrong, or then it started to go down after the latest report. or then those with mild symptoms or just being exposed dont go to tests anymore | 23:13 |
| nixonix | https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/23july2021 | 23:13 |
| nixonix | https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/30july2021 | 23:13 |
| nixonix | two latest ones to compare | 23:13 |
| nixonix | finland soon reaching eu average, and going past it like a rocket, if nothing changes. the european country with least immunity, so its going to be bad, because it looks like hc officials and politicians are letting it burn through now | 23:15 |
| nixonix | lets see if some parents will revenge to those responsible, some day | 23:16 |
| nixonix | btw, uk has been on plateau during the last week. offloop daily numbers | 23:19 |
| nixonix | id guess scotland still going down, not england | 23:20 |
| nixonix | tracking breakthroughs you would need random samples getting tested for non-spike abs. breakthroughs are more often asymptomatic or mild cases, and vaccinated often get a pass when exposed people are tested | 23:23 |
| nixonix | so there are more hidden cases among vaccinated | 23:24 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1421917399377498120 | 23:28 |
| LjL | nixonix, unfortunately i've noticed before that countries that were "lucky" for longer got hit harder later... but maybe there's something about being very up north? not too many cases in Scandinavia either, even with Sweden going for herd immunity (although someone told me they actually had a lot of restrictions in practice, so i'm not so sure) it hasn't been *so* awful | 23:29 |
| rpifan | well i went to a bar in sweden last year | 23:30 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/jul/vaccine-antibody-levels-start-wane-around-2-3-months | 23:30 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.ucl.ac.uk: Vaccine antibody levels start to wane at around 2-3 months | UCL News - UCL – University College London | 23:30 |
| rpifan | the only restriction was that you must sit down | 23:30 |
| nixonix | those under 25 or so dont seem to be worried with their 0 or 1 dose, so i guess its their own fault they dont get information from other than our msm and hc officials. so im mostly just worried about unvaccinated kids, who knows what the truth will be from permanent damages | 23:33 |
| nixonix | how can az abs wane so fast. is it that the set of neut abs they studied is too limited? | 23:36 |
| himesama | de-facto: what are you thiniking of that increaas nk cell activity? | 23:43 |
| de-facto | not sure, its may be interesting to investigate further | 23:44 |
| Turbo_Tech | I was chatting with a College student. He was complaining that the school is making him wear a mask. I asked him if he cared if he was able to shed huge amounts of virus if he got sick. He said he did not care. Then I asked if he knew anyone who was immune deficient. His answer was yes. This is as bad an attitude as anti vaxers. | 23:44 |
| Turbo_Tech | He was vaccinated and did not feel compelled to wear masks any longer. | 23:45 |
| joerg | >>Israel reports sharp decline in Pfizer coronavirus vaccine efficacy<< 6 months or somesuch after expedited-regimen (I-21d->II) vaccination. It has been calimed by immunologists/virologists that the longer the time distance between first and 2nd jab, the better and longer the protection. Israel hurried that so for me that's not too surprising a find | 23:47 |
| himesama | i suspect that measuring long covid at a month or two after infection is not reliably knowable to be accurate. depending on the measurements (i.e. symptoms and signs), you might need to measure it 1 year after infection, for example (just a wild guess) in order to reduce confound of post viral syndromes that DO resolve. | 23:49 |
| de-facto | joerg thats the finding of this too https://www.pitch-study.org/PITCH_Dosing_Interval_23072021.pdf | 23:50 |
| de-facto | Turbo_Tech, do you see any change in symptom spectrum for roughly comparable patients with Delta in comparison to Alpha or B.1? | 23:52 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/LittleMoiz/status/1421861901504495619 | 23:52 |
| himesama | de-facto: it is possible that some of lc has low nk cytotoxicity | 23:52 |
| Turbo_Tech | it is hard to say for me since I work in the lab. I do not see patients. | 23:52 |
| de-facto | oh i see, yeah then its hard to say | 23:52 |
| de-facto | what about viral load for PCR? | 23:53 |
| de-facto | lower CT values now? | 23:53 |
| Turbo_Tech | I read charts, but its basically. Fever, Chills cough. | 23:53 |
| Turbo_Tech | But I don't get a full scale of patient presentation. Years ago I worked in the emergency room while I was going to school so I did see the patient side. | 23:54 |
| Turbo_Tech | If I worked there now with my scientific training, I would be cued into the little things. | 23:55 |
| de-facto | i am just curious about the changes by Delta that we dont read in papers, like higher viral load etc | 23:55 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/jneill/status/1420696180430884869 | 23:56 |
| de-facto | but it may be really hard to tell with seroprevalence now giving it a different cohort than other variants, different age groups etc | 23:56 |
| de-facto | oh dang, that does not look good nixonix | 23:57 |
| nixonix | hard to say, should see what were the numbers in the winter | 23:58 |
| de-facto | it would support the hypothesis that it burned through the young with comparably low seroprevalence though | 23:59 |
| LjL | :( | 23:59 |
| de-facto | and maybe also that children have more problems with Delta, that would be bad news for opening schools | 23:59 |
| Turbo_Tech | These kids are going to end up with Kawasaki like Disease. | 23:59 |
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