| Brainstorm | New from Our Zotero group: COVID and the brain: researchers zero in on how damage occurs: Type Journal Article Author Michael Marshall URL https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01693-6 Rights 2021 Nature Volume 595 Issue 7868 Pages 484-485 Publication Nature Date 2021-07-07 DOI 10.1038/d41586-021-01693-6 Accessed 2021-08-02 22:02:01 Library [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/HF28rh | 00:17 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: U.S. Hits Goal of 70% Adults With One COVID Vaccine Dose: Despite the good news, the 7-day daily average of new cases was 72,000 a day – up 44% from the previous week, and higher than the peak from last summer. → https://is.gd/tAIs90 | 00:28 |
| TurboTech | Here they guys. Holy cow I had to reinstall Ubuntu after an update. My gosh. | 00:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Turkey: +22898 cases (now 5.8 million), +91 deaths (now 51519) since 19 hours ago | 00:36 |
| -Bridgestorm- ⭕ Gempa bumi! Earthquake! 6.0 Mw tremor, registered by EMSC,GEOFON,GFZ, occurred 8 minutes ago (22:48:53 UTC), with a crescent moon, Southern Sumatra, Indonesia (-3.27, 100.09) ± 6 km likely felt 280 km away (in Sungai Penuh…) by 82300 people (www.seismicportal.eu) | 00:57 | |
| himesama | is vreathig nnrgouh nose safer or is breathing rhgouhgmouth safer? | 01:03 |
| himesama | breathing throguh* | 01:03 |
| himesama | how meaningful is 1 dose vacination rate | 01:03 |
| LjL | with Delta, not a whole lot | 01:04 |
| LjL | but if they set it as the goal, then it's meaningful in that they didn't miss the goal, i guess | 01:04 |
| Trippy72894 | I'd still like to hear this from others: I am vaccinated. If someone with delta coughs right in my face, can I simply not get it because I am vaccinated, or will I certainly get it but likely have mild or no symptoms? | 01:19 |
| LjL | Trippy72894, either thing could happen, to the best of anyone's knowledge | 01:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: Pandemic of unvaccinated rages in Louisiana, Florida amid breakthrough concerns → https://is.gd/A62cWj | 01:31 |
| LjL | it's possible that a high initial viral load (i.e. someone coughing right in your face) will greatly increase the chance of it "defeating" the vaccine, but that's not known for sure at this point | 01:31 |
| LjL | it does seem that vaccinated people who took part in public event got it at high rates even when vaccinated, so maybe wherever there's some high viral load around, it's easier to get it even if you're vaccinated | 01:32 |
| Trippy72894 | ahhhh okay. Thank you. | 01:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bulgaria: +393 cases (now 425541), +7 deaths (now 18222) since a day ago | 01:32 |
| LjL | generally speaking, with Delta around, you should consider yourself more or less at risk the way you were before the vaccine, sadly. don't get me wrong, the vaccine still makes your chances (of not getting it, and not getting too sick if you do get it) considerably... but not by the order(s) of magnitude that was originally expected | 01:32 |
| LjL | considerably better* | 01:33 |
| LjL | also, did you get an mRNA vaccine? | 01:33 |
| Trippy72894 | sinovac i think | 01:33 |
| LjL | ouch | 01:33 |
| Trippy72894 | not good? | 01:34 |
| LjL | likely not very, although i haven't focused on it much, so i don't have details | 01:34 |
| Trippy72894 | I'm on Hainan island. One single man with delta was loose in society and we're all freaked out | 01:34 |
| LjL | i think studies varied quite widely in the degree of protection they concluded it offered | 01:34 |
| Trippy72894 | QR codes and masks and temp checks are back everywhere | 01:34 |
| Trippy72894 | hmmmmm, ok. Well, I'll stay away from people | 01:35 |
| LjL | i don't know if you'll contain it this time | 01:35 |
| LjL | China and Australia both seems to be in high alert state, while previously they had both managed to contain it quite well | 01:35 |
| Trippy72894 | oh dear | 01:35 |
| Trippy72894 | well govt contact tracing is pretty good | 01:35 |
| LjL | i'm afraid Delta really does change the game | 01:35 |
| Trippy72894 | If this becomes endemic, will it be like flu or mutate to something terrible? | 01:35 |
| LjL | according to a recent report from the UK... either thing could happen :\ | 01:36 |
| Trippy72894 | wow | 01:36 |
| LjL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021 | 01:36 |
| Trippy72894 | so if we're all vaccinated in china, can't delta just burn through the people and that's that? | 01:36 |
| LjL | so far, variants that have emerged have been more severe than the original variant, so that's not too encouraging to me | 01:36 |
| Trippy72894 | If you get delta, and suffer minor symptoms, can you get delta again? | 01:37 |
| Trippy72894 | oh dear | 01:37 |
| LjL | after some months, definitely possible | 01:37 |
| LjL | re-infections happen | 01:37 |
| Trippy72894 | dear oh dear | 01:37 |
| LjL | also just because you're vaccinated doesn't automatically mean it'll burn through without *major* morbidity and also major chances of mutating further | 01:37 |
| Trippy72894 | oh no | 01:38 |
| Trippy72894 | your guess in 2 years? | 01:38 |
| LjL | if the vaccine doesn't keep you from getting it, and it doesn't keep you from infecting others (and it doesn't - not even the mRNA vaccines do, so Sinovac almost certainly doesn't), then it means it can keep mutating at a high rate | 01:38 |
| Trippy72894 | wow | 01:38 |
| specing | in 2 years the Zombie/Zeta variant turns 98% of the population into zombies | 01:39 |
| Trippy72894 | and not like flu, right? more like something that gets worse and worse? | 01:39 |
| LjL | Trippy72894, honestly i prefer not to look to far ahead. my guess could be wrong, and i'm enough of a pessimist without thinking of what this could be two years from now | 01:39 |
| Trippy72894 | fair enough | 01:39 |
| Trippy72894 | you've been very helpful | 01:39 |
| LjL | Trippy72894, it doesn't necessarily have to get worse and worse. but it also doesn't have *not* to | 01:39 |
| Trippy72894 | I see. | 01:39 |
| LjL | basically the virus doesn't care whether or not it kills you | 01:39 |
| LjL | but it cares about two things that it needs to balance | 01:39 |
| specing | it should care - killing you means one host less | 01:40 |
| LjL | 1) it wants to replicate a lot inside you | 01:40 |
| LjL | 2) it wants to be able to jump to another host | 01:40 |
| Trippy72894 | understood. | 01:40 |
| Trippy72894 | and delta does both | 01:40 |
| specing | I was told that diseases eventually mutate to be less deadly but more infectious | 01:40 |
| LjL | if it replicates too much inside you before it jumps to another host, then it'll kill you before it has done that, and then it's lost its game | 01:40 |
| LjL | but if it doesn't replicate enough inside you, then it may not be aggressive enough | 01:40 |
| Trippy72894 | balance = forever | 01:40 |
| Trippy72894 | and we never get rid of it | 01:41 |
| LjL | one "cunning" thing this virus does is that, apparently, much of its infectiousness happens before you get any symptoms, or nearly at the same time | 01:41 |
| Trippy72894 | right like HIV | 01:41 |
| LjL | Trippy72894, we won't get rid of it by any means. it's in various animal populations now (animals that live close to man, not just bats) | 01:41 |
| Trippy72894 | wow | 01:41 |
| LjL | in a much shorter timeframe, but sorta | 01:41 |
| Trippy72894 | we had our chance to all lockdown and get rid of it. | 01:41 |
| LjL | i know | 01:41 |
| Trippy72894 | that time has come and gone | 01:41 |
| LjL | i live in Lombardy, Italy, the place where it popped up right after China | 01:42 |
| LjL | for the first couple of months our government was just like "nothing to worry about for now, we only have a couple of Chinese people sick with it in Rome, and they're being treated, we have no outbreak" | 01:42 |
| LjL | and meanwhile i was saying "don't you see what's happening in Wuhan? they're closing down the entire city! it can't NOT come here!" | 01:42 |
| LjL | and of course, it did come here | 01:42 |
| LjL | and then other countries kinda acted the same as us | 01:43 |
| LjL | they saw what happened in China, then they saw what happened to us, but they still acted like they were invulnerable | 01:43 |
| Trippy72894 | that's terrible | 01:43 |
| LjL | and honestly this still keeps happening, we see so much lack of learning | 01:43 |
| Trippy72894 | i know i watched it from china saying "idiots! stop it! everyone stay home for a month, obviously!" | 01:43 |
| Trippy72894 | and the chances of a new vaccine to protect us against delta? | 01:43 |
| LjL | i don't like China's government, honestly, i don't like its draconian methods, but in the end we had lockdowns too anyway, maybe they were less draconian but we don't really have much "freedom" when this threat keeps being right on us | 01:44 |
| LjL | Trippy72894, the chances are high, but the vaccines with a high degree of protection are the mRNA ones. Pfizer and Moderna need to make a Delta-specific vaccine quickly, and they need to produce it quickly. it's a challenge. hopefully other companies will make more mRNA vaccines, but for now, CureVac, the other one i knew about (from Germany), failed to protect enough. | 01:45 |
| LjL | if we only get a vaccine for Delta after it has already mutated into Delta2 and Delta3... well we'll keep chasing it forever | 01:45 |
| Trippy72894 | We were happy with the draconian method. We all wanted to get rid of it, and did after a single month. | 01:46 |
| Trippy72894 | "chasing it forever" dear oh dear | 01:46 |
| Trippy72894 | i think the world will all act too slowly and the people will all yell "freedom" and delta3 4 5 6 will come. | 01:47 |
| LjL | well, we'll chase it forever anyway, since it'll be endemic. but there are different ways to be chasing it... | 01:47 |
| Trippy72894 | wow | 01:47 |
| Trippy72894 | I guess a holiday in Greece is out of the question now. | 01:47 |
| LjL | lots of people are having holidays in Greece, which is kind of the problem ;( | 01:48 |
| Trippy72894 | i'm staying home | 01:48 |
| LjL | good choice | 01:48 |
| Trippy72894 | stupid covid. stupid humans | 01:48 |
| LjL | but unfortunately the rest of the world isn't choosing as well | 01:48 |
| LjL | the EU wants tourism, for one thing | 01:48 |
| Trippy72894 | indeed | 01:48 |
| Trippy72894 | money before life, good choice | 01:49 |
| LjL | they have instituted a system of "COVID certificates" ("green pass", "vaccine passport", however you call it) so that you can travel within the EU/Schengen if you are vaccinated *or* have a recent negative test | 01:49 |
| Trippy72894 | like jobs before environment. how idiotic. nobody seems to point out to the dummies that no environment = no job | 01:49 |
| Trippy72894 | that's good | 01:49 |
| LjL | so people are going to other countries easily at least within the EU | 01:49 |
| Trippy72894 | we have the whole QR code thing | 01:49 |
| LjL | i'm not sure it's so good | 01:49 |
| LjL | yes, you've had it for much longer than us | 01:49 |
| LjL | but afaik yours has also been a lot more, erm, again, draconian than ours | 01:50 |
| LjL | like, we have contact tracing apps, but few people use them | 01:50 |
| LjL | in Italy the contact tracing app was installed by around 10 million people | 01:50 |
| Trippy72894 | well, this is a pandemic. | 01:50 |
| LjL | and it's not really useful, because the government isn't really encouraging positives to report it in the app | 01:50 |
| Trippy72894 | draconian measures seem like common sense | 01:50 |
| LjL | i think there needs to be a balance anyway, it really depends what we mean by draconian, and i'm not sure i want to try making specific examples because it's possible that some of the things we've heard from China were exaggerated | 01:51 |
| Trippy72894 | and the term draconian refers to "excessively harsh and severe", but they seem appropriate and fitting and the public wants that here, you know, to not die from covid and get rid of it | 01:52 |
| LjL | but, for example, i think "your" contact tracing apps, at least in some cities (not sure if national), worked like this: you want to take a bus? you need to scan the bus's QR, and you'll get a "green" if the bus is "green". but if anyone on the bus gets sick, than anyone who has been on that bus is no longer green | 01:52 |
| Trippy72894 | very exaggerated. laughable in fact | 01:52 |
| Trippy72894 | right but then there is contact tracing | 01:52 |
| LjL | well, i start having an issue for example when smartphone apps are *mandated* | 01:52 |
| LjL | people shouldn't be obligated to have a smartphone in the first place | 01:52 |
| Trippy72894 | i'm not a fan of big brother but this is a pandemic | 01:53 |
| LjL | and i've seen in various countries that people who've violated lockdowns have been punished in humiliating ways (even resulted in dying), and i am not even thinking of China, but for example India and other SE Asian countries. not a fan of that | 01:53 |
| Trippy72894 | and i don't own a phone. my partner has my QR code | 01:53 |
| LjL | give me my €4000 fine, sure, but don't make me do exhausting physical exercise in the street as punishment | 01:53 |
| Trippy72894 | me neither | 01:53 |
| Trippy72894 | yes that is barbaric. | 01:53 |
| Trippy72894 | here, everyone just wants to be rid of the thing and get back to normal, so we are happy with the govts measures | 01:54 |
| Trippy72894 | pretty simple | 01:54 |
| Trippy72894 | all the "freedom" stuff, well, how's that workin out for them? | 01:54 |
| Trippy72894 | they think draconian measures are bad, try death and hospital bills and bankruptcy and a 2 yr lockdown | 01:55 |
| Trippy72894 | self-draconianism | 01:55 |
| Trippy72894 | :) | 01:55 |
| LjL | not very well, but i think many Chinese people seem to have been happy with a rather authoritarian style of government even before the pandemic, because the economy worked well and they became more wealthy, so they were willing to sacrifice personal rights and freedom | 01:55 |
| LjL | this happened here before/during WW2, and... most of us, i hope, are no big fans of *that* | 01:55 |
| Trippy72894 | the government was never authoritarian here. | 01:55 |
| Trippy72894 | that was an illusion | 01:55 |
| Trippy72894 | all the cameras on street corners? ha! idiots on the other end | 01:55 |
| Trippy72894 | sure you can't publish anti govt stuff in papers, but that's it | 01:56 |
| Trippy72894 | the cops never stop people | 01:56 |
| Trippy72894 | few in prisons | 01:56 |
| LjL | ... or on WeChat and friends without being stopped by filters | 01:56 |
| Trippy72894 | the uiugyr however you spell it thing is mostly nonsense | 01:56 |
| Trippy72894 | wechat yes they don't want groups to form that are anti govt | 01:56 |
| Trippy72894 | they remember what happened int the past | 01:56 |
| Trippy72894 | 1.4 billion people, stability is essential or millions die | 01:57 |
| Trippy72894 | besides, nobody here can organize against the govt here | 01:57 |
| Trippy72894 | they are too muddleheaded | 01:57 |
| Trippy72894 | school does that to them on purpose. | 01:57 |
| Trippy72894 | anyhow we digress | 01:57 |
| Trippy72894 | we both see how "free" USA treats its citizens. China is pretty darn free where it counts | 01:58 |
| Trippy72894 | come live here and see for yourself. | 01:58 |
| Trippy72894 | i've been here for 20 years | 01:58 |
| Trippy72894 | I could walk down the street with a cow on a rope and the cops wouldn't do anything | 01:58 |
| Trippy72894 | in a city as modern as singapore | 01:58 |
| Trippy72894 | anyhow, i blab. thanks again for the very valuable info. it's appreciated. | 01:59 |
| LjL | i don't think i *can* come live there at least at this particular time, which may last for somewhat longer :P | 01:59 |
| LjL | Singapore also makes me shudder a bit, fwiw | 02:00 |
| Trippy72894 | good point. why singapore? anyhow, i'm happy to be in hainan. islands are good. | 02:00 |
| LjL | you have a better chance of containing the virus in an island, assuming mainlanders are kept outside | 02:00 |
| Trippy72894 | indeed | 02:01 |
| LjL | New Zealand and (until recently) Australia fared better than other so-called western countries | 02:01 |
| LjL | although that's not a rule, i mean, look at the UK... | 02:01 |
| Trippy72894 | Jacinda Ardern should get a nobel prize | 02:01 |
| Trippy72894 | I suspect Iceland is doing well, considering its remoteness and female leader | 02:02 |
| Trippy72894 | If I were Earth, I'd be saying "good riddance!" | 02:02 |
| LjL | %cases iceland | 02:02 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Iceland has had 8122 confirmed cases (2.2% of all people) and 30 deaths (0.4% of cases) as of 10 hours ago. 867908 tests were done (0.9% positive). Fatality may lie between 0.9% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 0.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). +71 cases since a day ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Iceland | 02:02 |
| LjL | could certainly be worse, especially the deaths | 02:03 |
| Trippy72894 | Closing national borders permanently? Helpful, or animals make that pointless? | 02:03 |
| LjL | but, two points i want to get across: 1) Delta really does change the game, 2) Sinovac has fared poorly from most of what i've heard | 02:04 |
| LjL | animals don't make it pointeless if you're an island | 02:04 |
| LjL | even if you aren't an island, it probably buys you time | 02:04 |
| LjL | "permanently" would be sad though, i hope we can get out of this, even if it remains endemic, eventually | 02:04 |
| LjL | but someone was saying yesterday that they wanted to move to NZ a while ago, but they gave up because their dog would have to be quarantined for 6 months (!) to be allowed into the country (not for COVID, just as a general thing for dogs) | 02:05 |
| LjL | i don't know how to feel about that. it's important to keep alien species out of where they don't belong, especially islands. but on the other hand i'm kind of a fan of free movement, and i can understand someone who has a dog would give up on plans to move with a requirement like that | 02:06 |
| LjL | de-facto, you were interested/curious about Lambda, iirc? https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.454085v1 | 02:07 |
| LjL | %title | 02:07 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.biorxiv.org: SARS-CoV-2 Lambda variant exhibits higher infectivity and immune resistance | bioRxiv | 02:07 |
| LjL | "Lambda S is highly infectious and T76I and L452Q are responsible for this property" "RSYLTPGD246-253N, L452Q and F490S confer resistance to antiviral immunity" are these mutations we're already familiar with? they don't ring a bell for me | 02:08 |
| Trippy72894 | understood, thank you. | 02:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Fr. Polynesia: +432 cases (now 20480), +4 deaths (now 153) since 2 days ago — Vietnam: +7455 cases (now 161761), +389 deaths (now 1695) since 23 hours ago | 02:09 |
| LjL | Trippy72894, one thing i'm curious about, at the start of all this in early 2020, we kept seeing video from Wuhan and other parts of China (but also sometimes from South Korea and other places) what showed streets and everything outdoors being sprayed with something. water? disinfectant? something else? i never learned what it was, and i never quite understood what it was *for*, as they showed it here but without explaining it | 02:11 |
| LjL | my reasoning being, if it's meant to kill the virus on surfaces... is that important? people don't lick streets (usually) | 02:11 |
| Trippy72894 | disinfectant for sure | 02:11 |
| Trippy72894 | They did that here too and in airports and stuff. Other countries did that too. | 02:12 |
| LjL | they did it very minimally here | 02:12 |
| Trippy72894 | People spit here, so maybe spit would be on the street, dry, and get airborne in dust? | 02:12 |
| LjL | they almost seemed like they did it a bit because China was doing it but they barely knew why they were doing it | 02:12 |
| Trippy72894 | Idiots still spit here. | 02:13 |
| LjL | hmm | 02:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Lambda variant shows vaccine resistance → https://is.gd/OH9yIO | 02:13 |
| LjL | Trippy72894, i'm kind of aware of that, i live near my city's Chinatown and that's kind of a thing that tends to get on our nerves ;P | 02:13 |
| LjL | but... i don't know, if the spit dries up i think the pathogen mostly died | 02:13 |
| LjL | dies' | 02:13 |
| LjL | dies* gah | 02:13 |
| Trippy72894 | oh no | 02:14 |
| Trippy72894 | lambda is resistant? oh no | 02:14 |
| Trippy72894 | i know, but the govt sees surfaces and sprays them. | 02:14 |
| LjL | on the other hand if the pathogen is already in the air, maybe you can reduce air viral load that way... but i don't know, it still doesn't check out for me | 02:14 |
| Trippy72894 | they tend to overdo it here | 02:14 |
| LjL | hmm, so maybe it was more of a precautionary thing and it might turn out it wasn't actually very useful | 02:15 |
| Trippy72894 | well, they certainly weren't spraying anything terrible. | 02:15 |
| Trippy72894 | yes, that is likely | 02:15 |
| LjL | but i kept thinking "what do they know that we don't know, and why is my TV showing me this without *explaining* why it's done and how it works?" | 02:15 |
| LjL | pretty annoying when media do that | 02:15 |
| Trippy72894 | try to get a straight answer here. no way | 02:15 |
| Trippy72894 | your media couldn't get a straight answer out of the china govt. | 02:16 |
| Trippy72894 | no doubt | 02:16 |
| Trippy72894 | and really, it was just disinfectant to be sure | 02:16 |
| LjL | fair enough | 02:16 |
| LjL | anyway that Lambda information is still early, but that's why i pinged de-facto about it (i saw it before Brainstorm posted it) | 02:16 |
| LjL | but de-facto is often ahead of things so if he was "curious" about Lambda, my bet is Lambda will be more in the news soon | 02:17 |
| LjL | but for now, let's face Delta | 02:17 |
| himesama | uslands are good until sea lefels rise | 02:17 |
| LjL | it's bad enough :( | 02:17 |
| himesama | above them | 02:17 |
| LjL | ;( | 02:18 |
| LjL | there are a bit too many things going too awfully wrong in recent times | 02:18 |
| LjL | and i'm understating how i feel about it all | 02:18 |
| himesama | so you want margaret thatcher back? ---- 17:02 <Trippy72894> I suspect Iceland is doing well, considering its remoteness and female leader | 02:20 |
| Trippy72894 | Hey, here in Haikou, we are 1 m above sea level? why worry? hahahaha | 02:20 |
| Trippy72894 | Thatcher was a witch | 02:20 |
| Trippy72894 | But generally, females do better. Less testosterone. | 02:20 |
| Trippy72894 | I'd rather a nest builder than a warrior. | 02:21 |
| Trippy72894 | Old hardwiring. | 02:21 |
| LjL | i'm not sure we've had *enough* female leaders worldwide to say with enough confidence yet | 02:21 |
| Trippy72894 | Good point. | 02:21 |
| Trippy72894 | Hillary was pure psychopathy. | 02:22 |
| Trippy72894 | We dodged that bullet. | 02:22 |
| Trippy72894 | Anyhow, thanks for the utterly depressing info. | 02:22 |
| LjL | *cough* | 02:22 |
| Trippy72894 | This has been great. I'm going to hit the bottle hard now. :) | 02:22 |
| Trippy72894 | kidding | 02:22 |
| LjL | you're welcome | 02:22 |
| Trippy72894 | :) | 02:22 |
| LjL | you can talk to uh | 02:22 |
| LjL | who's an optimist here? | 02:22 |
| LjL | raise your hands? | 02:22 |
| Trippy72894 | Thank you. Good channel! | 02:22 |
| Trippy72894 | It's appreciated. | 02:23 |
| LjL | it is what it is, i wish i had better news | 02:23 |
| LjL | just tell people around you: it's different with Delta | 02:23 |
| LjL | vaccines are not a shield | 02:23 |
| Trippy72894 | optismist = delusional, pessimist = realist | 02:23 |
| LjL | if you all understand this, then maybe you will contain it, like before | 02:23 |
| Trippy72894 | may i email excerpts of this chatlog to them? | 02:23 |
| LjL | this channel is publicly logged | 02:23 |
| Trippy72894 | where? | 02:23 |
| LjL | the topic has a link to the logs | 02:23 |
| Trippy72894 | and thanks | 02:24 |
| Trippy72894 | ah ok | 02:24 |
| LjL | but also, yes | 02:24 |
| Trippy72894 | checking that... | 02:24 |
| Trippy72894 | ok thanks | 02:24 |
| Trippy72894 | and bye for now. | 02:24 |
| LjL | bye, take care | 02:24 |
| Trippy72894 | bye | 02:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +23065 cases (now 5.9 million), +45 deaths (now 129879) since 23 hours ago — France: +11127 cases (now 6.2 million), +22 deaths (now 112000) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +2251 cases (now 1.9 million) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +346 cases (now 1.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 02:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID variant Lambda 'shows vaccine resistance' → https://is.gd/8DFTYy | 02:44 |
| LjL | Brainstorm, yes you said that | 02:44 |
| LjL | de-facto, joerg: i think i heard on TV that Germany is already planning a 3rd shot for elderly/vulnerable | 02:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mauritius: +480 cases (now 4393) since 5 days ago | 02:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from Our Zotero group: Dysregulation of brain and choroid plexus cell types in severe COVID-19: Type Journal Article Author Andrew C. Yang Author Fabian Kern Author Patricia M. Losada Author Maayan R. Agam Author Christina A. Maat Author Georges P. Schmartz Author Tobias Fehlmann Author Julian A. Stein Author Nicholas Schaum Author Davis P. Lee [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/olwmcd | 03:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Should other passengers be able to sue these two who flew after showing falsified vaccination records and test results? → https://is.gd/yf2I8S | 03:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A fire at a mobile vaccination station Sunday night in the southern Polish town of Zamość was a terrorist incident. Provincial authorities reported that the fire, caused by an unknown perpetrator, "likely destroyed" coronavirus vaccines stored in the mobile vaccination unit → https://is.gd/BuWqhA | 04:18 |
| LjL | https://www.sciencealert.com/nearly-14-000-scientists-warn-that-earth-s-vital-signs-are-worsening | 04:28 |
| LjL | "Opportunities still exist to shift pandemic related monetary support measures into climate friendly activities; it is encouraging to see fossil-fuel divestment and fossil-fuel subsidies improving in record setting ways." | 04:29 |
| LjL | as much as the climate emergency is an emergency, i'm not sure it should detract from pandemic efforts... | 04:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from Our Zotero group: The coronavirus is rife in common US deer: Type Journal Article Author Smriti Mallapaty URL https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02110-8 Rights 2021 Nature Publication Nature Date 2021-08-02 DOI 10.1038/d41586-021-02110-8 Accessed 2021-08-03 02:26:51 Library Catalog www.nature.com Language en Abstract Survey results [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/JXa2OH | 04:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ghana: +1975 cases (now 104994), +14 deaths (now 837) since 5 days ago — France: +16 deaths (now 112003) since 20 hours ago | 04:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +16392 cases (now 5.9 million), +18 deaths (now 129885) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +1601 cases (now 1.9 million) since 21 hours ago — Canada: +313 cases (now 1.4 million) since 21 hours ago | 05:03 |
| aa | hola | 05:57 |
| aa | buenas noches soy de cuba | 05:57 |
| aa | Alguien por ahí | 05:57 |
| aa | Por acá en cuba tenemos un rebrote terrible del covid | 05:58 |
| aa | Que me cuentan de sus países?? | 05:59 |
| -Bridgestorm- 🏠 भूकंप! Earthquake! 6.0 Mw tremor, registered by EMSC,alomax, occurred 20 minutes ago (03:42:26 UTC), during daytime, Nicobar Islands, India Region (9.92, 93.22) ± 85 km likely felt 270 km away (in Port Blair…) by 108500 people (www.seismicportal.eu) | 06:02 | |
| aa | hola | 06:09 |
| aa | hola | 06:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: STAT+: Sanofi pays $3 billion to purchase Translate, raising stakes around mRNA technology: In buying Translate Bio, Sanofi will own the rest of the company's mRNA pipeline, which includes treatments for rare diseases of the lung, all of which are in the earliest… → https://is.gd/VaZGv3 | 07:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US hits 70% vaccination rate a month late, amid a surge → https://is.gd/AAlC8k | 07:27 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for California, United States: +18252 cases (now 4.0 million), +122 deaths (now 64547) since 23 hours ago — Louisiana, United States: +11108 cases (now 552787), +27 deaths (now 11026) since 2 days ago — North Carolina, United States: +8623 cases (now 1.1 million), +35 deaths (now 13670) since 2 days ago [... want %more?] | 07:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japan to extend ¥883 mil (about $8 mil USD) in aid to Mongolia to fight COVID-19 → https://is.gd/g40WC9 | 07:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +3994 cases (now 1.1 million), +6 deaths (now 25247) since 2 days ago | 08:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +30549 cases (now 31.7 million), +421 deaths (now 425065) since 23 hours ago — Sint Maarten: +28 cases (now 2798) since 3 days ago | 08:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia to consider giving $300 to everyone who gets fully vaccinated to increase vaccination rates. → https://is.gd/xlXgGf | 08:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | August 03, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/HRMMDt | 09:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: FAQ: Recent CDC Guidance, Vaccine Data, and the Delta Variant: In light of the recent announcements by the Centers for Disease Control, we felt it would be a good idea to have a post briefly laying out and answering some common questions. → https://is.gd/iYQBa7 | 09:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Health: People chasing Covid-19 vaccine boosters create headaches for the health care system → https://is.gd/RcsmPH | 10:45 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Georgia: +4827 cases (now 428670), +34 deaths (now 5910) since a day ago — Israel: +3966 cases (now 881282), +15 deaths (now 6492) since 20 hours ago | 11:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Guam: +29 cases (now 8593) since 19 hours ago | 11:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Hackers block Italian Covid-19 vaccination booking system in 'most serious cyberattack ever' → https://is.gd/CCKCDm | 11:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Intellectual property waiver for covid-19 vaccines will advance global health equity: By late June 2021, 46% of people in high income countries had received at least one dose of the covid-19 vaccine compared with 20% in middle income countries and only 0.9% in low income countries.1... → https://is.gd/D65XTU | 11:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Covid made consumers want more pot, for less → https://is.gd/9twgrv | 12:11 |
| * joerg can't take that >>Intellectual property waiver for covid-19 vaccines will advance global health equity<< any longer, as if it was the license fees BNT asks for that hinder large scale production of their vaccine in Africa etc | 12:46 | |
| joerg | I think I repeat myself, nevertheless: in companies I worked for/with, we decided *against* patenting some software, as patents *immanently cause* disclosing of the "sekrits". Those who ask for waiving the patents on vaccines ahve absolutely no clue at all how patents and licenses and R&D works | 12:51 |
| joerg | and they particularly have not the faintest damn clue what it means to produce a vaccine large scale | 12:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: At least 249 rhinos were killed the first six months of this year in South Africa, the environment minister said Saturday, partly pushed by the easing of lockdown curbs that increased movement of poachers. South Africa is home to nearly 80 percent of the world's rhinos. → https://is.gd/QrACGt | 12:53 |
| joerg | if those folks had a minimum of self-respect and dignity then they'd look into the supposed patent registrations and started simply producing what now they claim they can't *because* of exactly those patents, and then they would stand there and say "we did the right thing, now sue us for patent infringement if you like". LOL, those muppets, waiving the patents will help them exactly ZILCH | 12:59 |
| joerg | cause then they notice that "simply start producing" is the real problem, not the patents | 13:00 |
| joerg | but it's just so simple to point finger at BioNTech et al and bitch for "waive the patents" so nobody starts pointing fingers at them and how they fail to source what their people need | 13:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on the daily number of new reported COVID-19 cases and deaths by EU/EEA country: The downloadable data file is updated daily and contains the latest available public data on COVID-19. Each row/entry contains the number of new cases and deaths reported per day and per country in the EU/EEA. → https://is.gd/tBASDi | 13:04 |
| joerg | to phrase it utterly clear: a patent registration _does_ disclose how the patentent idea works, it's nonsense to say the patent stops anybody from using it. The opposite is true, a patent registration enables other folks to pirate it | 13:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +1698 cases (now 3.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 13:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iran: +39019 cases (now 4.0 million), +378 deaths (now 91785) since 23 hours ago — Romania: +233 cases (now 1.1 million), +6 deaths (now 34297) since a day ago | 13:33 |
| de-facto | if a company stands with its name for thier own developed vaccine its their responsibility to ensure quality control of its production line with giving licenses to their partners, its utterly important to guarantee super strict high quality otherwise the whole platform could become trash if trust in its high quality standard is undermined | 13:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pakistan sounds alert after Epsilon strain of Covid-19 found in Lahore → https://is.gd/UdprZr | 14:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from NIH Director's blog: The Amazing Brain: Toward a Wiring Diagram of Connectivity: It’s summertime and, thanks to the gift of COVID-19 vaccines, many folks are getting the chance to take a break. So, I think it’s time that my blog readers finally get a break from what’s been nearly 18 months of non-stop coverage of COVID-19 research. And [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/4GfcYX | 15:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +2448 cases (now 702097), +24 deaths (now 9922) since a day ago | 15:06 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Italia Domani, online il portale dedicato al PNRR ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/italia-domani-online-il-portale-dedicato-al-pnrr/17566 ) | 15:18 | |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +1059 cases (now 720743) since a day ago | 15:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Sanofi to pay $3.2 billion to buy Translate Bio; COVAX struggles with Covid-19 vaccine distribution → https://is.gd/u41dND | 15:34 |
| finely[m] | <joerg> "and they particularly have not..." <- tell that to the Bangladesh biomedical industry. | 15:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canada fines travellers for fake vaccination and testing papers → https://is.gd/J8Ovus | 16:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Panic Buying And Transport Lockdowns. In Wuhan, It Feels Like Early Pandemic Again: In a dramatic move reminiscent of the first days of the coronavirus in China some 19 months ago, flights and trains in and out of the city of 11 million have been halted. → https://is.gd/Dw5nUJ | 16:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: STAT+: STAT+ Conversation: Dealing with the Delta variant: STAT's Nicholas St. Fleur and Andrew Joseph sit down to discuss the Delta variant and the challenges it poses to ending the pandemic. → https://is.gd/tSOkRw | 16:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Serbia: +424 cases (now 723031), +5 deaths (now 7127) since a day ago — Bangladesh: +15776 cases (now 1.3 million), +235 deaths (now 21397) since 23 hours ago | 16:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Covid cases resurfacing, China orders mass testing in Wuhan → https://is.gd/xtFy6c | 16:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Tuesday 03 August 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/a8A2cz | 17:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from In The Pipeline: A New Pathway To Kill Resistant Breast Cancer: As all the recent news about protein folding should make clear, there are a lot of ways for any given protein sequence to come together into a three-dimensional structure. For that phrase “a lot”, substitute “a larger number than the human mind can possibly comprehend”, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/w89Gd5 | 17:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +21466 cases (now 5.9 million) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +2 deaths (now 26602) since 15 hours ago | 18:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Furious Florida doctors lash out at DeSantis over 'unbelievably frightening' surge of COVID-19 patients → https://is.gd/ZnPAi5 | 18:05 |
| LjL | As the report notes, Florida reported 10,389 new hospitalizations for COVID on Monday that comes on the heels of a staggering 21,000 new infections on Friday making Florida home to almost one in five cases nationally. | 18:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pentagon is currently on lockdown following report of shooting on bus platform outside → https://is.gd/wZYJjb | 18:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Louisiana Reinstates Indoor Mask Mandate as Hospitals Fill: The mask mandate will apply to ages 5 and older in indoor public locations, regardless of vaccination status. It will remain in effect until at least Sept. 1. → https://is.gd/Oyfkmo | 18:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Albania: +65 cases (now 133211) since 23 hours ago | 18:38 |
| nottofan | "Herd immunity is not relevant as we are seeing plenty of evidence of repeat and breakthrough infections," Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist | 18:56 |
| LjL | i'm afraid that's true with Delta | 18:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +20327 cases (now 4.5 million), +130 deaths (now 81773) since 21 hours ago — Italy: +4841 cases (now 4.4 million), +27 deaths (now 128115) since 22 hours ago | 19:03 |
| nottofan | yeah. six days with similar viral load for vaccinated, if sg information is good | 19:07 |
| nixonix | .title https://covid.viz.sg/historic.html | 19:08 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: At 2021-08-02 00:00:22 UTC, LjL told you: https://www.zotero.org/groups/4391070/covid-links/ https://www.zotero.org/groups/4391070/covid-links/library | 19:08 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From covid.viz.sg: SG Covid Case Clusters | 19:08 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-to-stop-giving-details-of-covid-19-community-cases | 19:09 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.straitstimes.com: MOH to stop giving details of Covid-19 community cases, Health News & Top Stories - The Straits Times | 19:09 |
| nixonix | the quote above was from this: | 19:10 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.salon.com/2021/07/31/will-things-ever-return-to-normal-it-doesnt-look-that-way-right-now/ | 19:10 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.salon.com: Will things ever return to normal? It doesn't look that way right now | Salon.com | 19:10 |
| Arsanerit | ever is a long time | 19:10 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full | 19:11 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medrxiv.org: Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine-breakthrough infections: a multi-center cohort study | medRxiv | 19:11 |
| nixonix | check the tables and graphs from that in the end of it | 19:13 |
| nixonix | also in barnstable, mass: | 19:13 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm | 19:13 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.cdc.gov: Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Including COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections, Associated with Large Public Gatherings â Barnstable County, Massachusetts, July 2021 | MMWR | 19:13 |
| joerg | herd immunity means R_t<1 in the end of the day, by what measures it gets achieved is secondary, vaccination alone won't suffice with delt even if we'd vaccinate 100%, but vaccination will *siginificantly* reduce the amount of other NPI we need to keep R_t<1a | 19:13 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/newsroom/stakeholder-info/stakeholder-messages/wildlife-damage-news/deer-sars | 19:14 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.aphis.usda.gov: USDA APHIS | Surveillance Data Shows White-Tailed Deer Exposed to SARS-CoV-2 | 19:14 |
| joerg | *IF* it turns aut we achieve a 90% vaccination coverage and this plus "don't shout into the face of person next to you", "don't share bottle/glass/whatever", "keep physical distance of at least 1.5m whenever possible", "don't overcrowd public transport", "don't shake hands" etc pp suffices to keep R_t<1 sustainably, I'm more than just happy | 19:19 |
| joerg | out* | 19:19 |
| joerg | I hope this statement makes instant sense to everybody, I really hope so | 19:22 |
| nixonix | for vaccinated, antivody affinity maturation happens only between primary and booster vaccination, unlike with natural infection | 19:29 |
| nixonix | the result was from short dosing interval i think. are there studies if it continues during the whole 12 week or so longer intervals? | 19:29 |
| nixonix | also i wonder what happens when vaccinated gets infected, if b-cell maturation starts again or not | 19:31 |
| nixonix | for affinity and breath | 19:31 |
| nixonix | so for vaccinated, its the quantity of antibodies, not quality. so 3rd doses needed | 19:33 |
| nixonix | in israel early data, the protection for severe symptoms was reduced from over 90% to 80 or so in 5-6 months. over 60 yo i think | 19:34 |
| nixonix | But data examined by the government this week indicated that the vaccine’s effectiveness in protecting the elderly against severe illness had also dropped to as low as 81 percent, compared to 97 percent in the month after full inoculation | 19:36 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/30/1030329/machine-learning-ai-failed-covid-hospital-diagnosis-pandemic/ | 19:39 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.technologyreview.com: Hundreds of AI tools have been built to catch covid. None of them helped. | MIT Technology Review | 19:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Azerbaijan: +931 cases (now 345882), +4 deaths (now 5034) since a day ago — Germany: +1528 cases (now 3.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 19:40 |
| nixonix | similar reduction in all age groups: https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1422522237777743872 | 19:44 |
| de-facto | nixonix, if B-cell maturation would not restart with each re-challenge of the immune system by (evolved, new variant) antigen exposure, how would we not have original antigenic sin with VoC specific vaccinations? | 19:45 |
| nixonix | are we sure we dont have? | 19:46 |
| nixonix | theres just not evidence. yet anyway | 19:46 |
| joerg | >><nixonix> for vaccinated, antivody affinity maturation happens only between primary and booster vaccination<< never heard this. How gets maturation stopped by 2nd jab? is there any explanation for that? | 19:46 |
| nixonix | thats what they noticed in this | 19:47 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.454333v1 | 19:47 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.biorxiv.org: Antibody Evolution after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccination | bioRxiv | 19:47 |
| nixonix | hope it was the right one... | 19:47 |
| joerg | is there a tl;ds? | 19:47 |
| nixonix | preprint, but the same fellows involved got another paper close to subject published in nature recently. so its prob good quality | 19:48 |
| LjL | nixonix, you ever saw https://mcusercontent.com/92561d6dedb66a43fe9a6548f/files/ee29efbe-ffaf-4289-8782-d323642a0072/concern_about_using_current_Covid_19_vaccines_for_mass_vaccination_in_the_midst_of_a_pandemic_Geert_Vanden_Bossche.pdf ? when i first read it it seemed like pseudoscientific ramblings, but at the same time i had to admit i didn't understand many of the claims it made. the author has the qualifications of "Independent Vaccine Research Consultant". | 19:48 |
| LjL | anyway now that we're seeing vaccines fail to provide herd immunity, the disease seemingly getting worse for children... i wonder if any grain of truth was in it | 19:48 |
| joerg | dr* I'd first want to hear a short term statement if it's even plausible | 19:48 |
| nixonix | i didnt notice they had hypothesis for explanation in there. read the abstract and later parts after that | 19:49 |
| nixonix | i mean the end parts (: | 19:49 |
| joerg | my idea was the "maturing" goes on for weeks and even months, no matter if you received one or two jabs, with the efficiency of 2nd jab the higher the longer your immune system had time "to prepare" for that 2nd jab | 19:49 |
| nixonix | why are utf smiley emojis so bad. i prefer ascii ones | 19:50 |
| de-facto | a booster looks like a breakthrough for the immune system, it sees lots of antigen although it prepared to prevent that from appearing by optimizing its immunity | 19:51 |
| nixonix | and they havent emojis for frustration or depression, there are some funny ones for forum softwares | 19:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New York City to require vaccination for indoor activities, restaurants, gyms → https://is.gd/nU6RPP | 19:51 |
| nixonix | ljl i had a quick look on vanden bosches web site awhile ago. some of it didnt make sense, not sure if it was just me or he, though | 19:52 |
| joerg | ps to "herd immunity" and "vaccination": I hope 2nd generation of vaccines will achive even higher efficiency than the vaccines we have now, then also against variants like Delta | 19:52 |
| nixonix | was he veterinarian... they often are, those with crazy ideas | 19:53 |
| joerg | de-facto: good point | 19:54 |
| de-facto | the problem: current vaccines do work, they reduce also transmission, but they are leaky in terms of breakthrough cases shedding virus, yet not just any virus but those mutations that were selected for having less replication disadvantage under the immune pressure by the vaccinations | 19:54 |
| joerg | :nod: | 19:54 |
| de-facto | and if immune response to exactly the same antigen (by vaccination) is similar in individuals, why would the selective pressure after a breakthrough case produced another breakthrough case not just continue where it stopped at the previous host: always optimizing for better breakthrough capability, exploiting similarity in the immune response to the vaccinations | 19:55 |
| * joerg shivers in anticipation of the moment when the "vaccinatrion does NOT reduce shedding of virus sufficiently to exclude the vaccinated from the otherwise mandatory NPI collection of measures like quarantine, testing etc pp" factoid finally takes grip and impacts to german news and political/public discourse | 19:58 | |
| de-facto | they act as if that was not the case still, with their GGG | 19:59 |
| joerg | :nod: :shakehead: | 20:00 |
| de-facto | also with their discussion about incidence possibly should not be the indicator anymore they assume there is not breeding on breakthrough variants | 20:02 |
| de-facto | even with RKI stating the opposite: the primary metric should be the incidence according to them (and that makes a lot of sense imho) | 20:03 |
| LjL | they are probably afraid that vaccine uptake will become even lower (it's not very high in Germany currently) if people are told vaccinated must behave like others | 20:04 |
| de-facto | yes and thats a real problem | 20:04 |
| LjL | <CarlSagan> [Ars Technica - Science] After a COVID-free year, delta arrives in Wuhan, China https://arstechnica.com/?p=1784801 2021-08-03T17:05:41 | 20:05 |
| de-facto | one of five citizens over 18 seems to now have decided to take the shot (according to my own predictions, so no official source for that) | 20:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +34024 cases (now 31.7 million), +468 deaths (now 425252) since 21 hours ago | 20:05 |
| de-facto | *one of five citizens over 18 seems to not have decided to take the shot | 20:05 |
| de-facto | yeah again, SARS-CoV-2 prefers to travel via airplane | 20:06 |
| de-facto | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/02/china-tests-millions-as-nanjing-airport-outbreak-sees-covid-cases-surge | 20:07 |
| de-facto | always the same story, international airplane passengers importing the newest and most aggressive pathogens | 20:09 |
| nixonix | what was the study i linked here a few days ago, they estimated around 60% vaccine coverage and lots of infections to be ideal conditions for new variants to evolve? | 20:10 |
| nixonix | breakthrough variants, that was | 20:10 |
| de-facto | the uk "what if" paper? | 20:10 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021 <-- maybe that one? | 20:12 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.gov.uk: Long term evolution of SARS-CoV-2, 26 July 2021 - GOV.UK | 20:12 |
| de-facto | hmm but nothing with 60% in there | 20:14 |
| de-facto | maybe it was another one? | 20:14 |
| nixonix | grep the logs for 60%? | 20:16 |
| nixonix | hopefully with my regular nick... | 20:16 |
| LjL | to me that Geert Vanden Bossche paper/slides, on trying to reread it, i basically divide it into two: this "NAC" vs "nonNAC" interaction that i don't really understand, but then other parts about the vaccine instigating immune evasion that, if you consider it was written several months ago... they ring uncannily like what's happening now | 20:18 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/are-we-creating-ideal-conditions-for-new-coronavirus-variants | 20:19 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medicalnewstoday.com: COVID-19: Are we creating ideal conditions for new variants? | 20:19 |
| joerg | for a random datapoint: Nuerberg germany: >> Impfungen bis 2. August: 💉 Verabreichte Impfdosen: 547.794 (+1.754) 💉 💉 Vollständig geimpft: 257.985 (+1.388) << this means there have been a roughly 1.754 -1.388 = 366 *new* vaccinations today, for ~500k people. Vaccination adoption has not reduced, it effectively came to a grinding halt. It's a shame | 20:19 |
| nixonix | it looks like i linked the paper that is mentioned in that article | 20:19 |
| joerg | TV news stopped reporting vaccination progress numbers several days ago already | 20:21 |
| LjL | nixonix, i don't find that 60% reference in the logs | 20:21 |
| joerg | when we reached 50%, they stopped reporting and vaccination progress stopped same time | 20:22 |
| nixonix | yeah. maybe i just planned to link that, i sometimes confuse if i did or not... | 20:22 |
| de-facto | joerg, have you seen my interpolation functions? | 20:22 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/X7jyVWD https://i.imgur.com/2aMaSKN.png "COVID Germany: 1st vaccination per population" data: https://impfdashboard.de/static/data/germany_vaccinations_timeseries_v2.tsv | 20:22 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: 1st vaccination per population - Album on Imgur | 20:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO - DECRETO 5 luglio 2021: Criteri, modalita' e condizioni per l'accesso al Fondo per ilsostegno alle grandi imprese in temporanea difficolta' finanziaria inrelazione alla crisi economica connessa con l'emergenzaepidemiologica da COVID-19. (21A04658) → https://is.gd/Buq41n | 20:23 |
| LjL | nixonix, i don't find the paper mentioned in the article either though, i googled for "Slowing down the rate of virus evolution requires us to act fast and decisively, reducing the number of" (which is an excerpt in theory) but it doesn't find it :\ | 20:23 |
| joerg | on the bright side: https://i.imgur.com/SZt7Hob.png | 20:26 |
| joerg | de-facto: yes | 20:26 |
| joerg | they look plausible and will probably turn out to be correct predictions, a pity | 20:27 |
| de-facto | unless conditions change, e.g. those missing 19.5% will go for a shot too | 20:28 |
| LjL | even after Immuni became the "green pass wallet app", the numbers here are pretty meh :\ https://www.immuni.italia.it/dashboard.html | 20:28 |
| joerg | wait, didn't they predict some 60% plateau for vaccination? | 20:28 |
| de-facto | not sure did they? | 20:30 |
| de-facto | hmm for some reason USA got a similar curve but then stayed at constant (non vanishing) slope at the end due to some difference | 20:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from Our Zotero group: COVID-19: Are we creating ideal conditions for new variants?: Type Web Page URL https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/are-we-creating-ideal-conditions-for-new-coronavirus-variants Date 2021-07-31T11:00:00.000Z Accessed 2021-08-03 18:32:57 Language en Abstract New research cautions that removing restrictions when children [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/LUJeHD | 20:45 |
| de-facto | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-willingness-and-people-vaccinated-by-country?country=CAN~DNK~FRA~DEU~ITA~NOR~KOR~GBR~USA~AUS~FIN~JPN~ESP~SWE~SGP~NLD | 20:45 |
| de-facto | 22% unwilling to get vaccinated, that would fit the ~19.5% of my interpolation | 20:47 |
| LjL | ugh what's the original paper establishing that vaccinated Delta-infected are as infectious as unvaccinated Delta-infected? or is there more than one? is it one based on Cape Cod, Massachussets, which i think looked only at people who attended public events, or is there multiple? | 20:49 |
| LjL | i just can't remember things, even the ones currently most important :( | 20:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from Our Zotero group: After a COVID-free year, delta arrives in Wuhan, China: Type Web Page Author Beth Mole URL https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/delta-arrives-in-wuhan-after-covid-free-year-city-to-test-12m-residents/ Date 8/3/2021 Accessed 2021-08-03 18:44:30 Language en-us Abstract Delta is thought to have arrived in the country on a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Jpluou | 20:56 |
| joerg | de-facto: >>22% unwilling<< is that excluding the und-12yo children? Or including those, so including the not-allowed-to... into the unwilling-to... ? | 21:00 |
| joerg | AIUI the ~60% halfway&full vaccinated are "of the whole german population, including children", no? | 21:01 |
| de-facto | very good question | 21:01 |
| de-facto | i do not know that about OWID | 21:01 |
| specing | I'd like to see a breakdown of the unaccinated.. how many flat out refuse, how many can't due to health reasons, how many are too young.... | 21:01 |
| de-facto | i took whole population (=1) and 16.5% is over 18 years old, hence 83,5% could receive the shot and if 64% will, there woudl be 83,5% - 64% = 19.5% left (out of all) that didnt | 21:03 |
| joerg | specing: and how many have more or less reasonable concerns regarding all-new vaccine principle never before used in large scale long-term | 21:05 |
| specing | joerg: yeah | 21:06 |
| nixonix | anyone knows the source of this picture? https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1412721385366081541 | 21:06 |
| LjL | i suspect owid is just dividing by the entire population, but many national sites will be dividing by the eligible people | 21:06 |
| nixonix | didnt find it in those ons files | 21:07 |
| LjL | i've definitely seen that somewhere | 21:07 |
| nixonix | some of them had data like that, but not exactly the same | 21:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Eswatini: +839 cases (now 27467), +7 deaths (now 813) since 23 hours ago | 21:07 |
| nixonix | (btw week 26 had more information than the later ones, worth checking out) | 21:07 |
| LjL | nixonix, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/7july2021 i do think it's here, figure 3 | 21:08 |
| LjL | towards the bottom | 21:08 |
| nixonix | very high vaccine coverage in uk, for over 35 yo. did brits change their heart lately, this was from january: | 21:09 |
| nixonix | 69% (95% CI = 66.8, 70.9) of UK respondents were vaccine accepting, 25% (95% CI = 23.1, 26.9) were vaccine hesitant, and 6% (95% CI = 5.2, 7.3) were vaccine resistant | 21:09 |
| joerg | HAHA TV ZDF "frontal" just this minute: >>vaccinated still can import the virus just like unvaccinated, so not testing them is nonsense<< | 21:09 |
| * joerg shivers again | 21:10 | |
| nixonix | thanks, you are good with uk gov data | 21:10 |
| nixonix | i looked that page earlier, but i didnt have js on, so i didnt see the pictures | 21:11 |
| LjL | what's the actual evidence that vaccinated positives can infect just as much as unvaccinated positives? so far what i've found is the "famous" leaked CDC document https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/cdc-breakthrough-infections/94390e3a-5e45-44a5-ac40-2744e4e25f2e/?_=1 page 17 but that's not even a paper plus it's based on viral load, which may not reflect *actual* infectiousness. i was under the impression we had more studies establishing this...? | 21:12 |
| nixonix | did you check that singapore paper i linked when i came here? | 21:14 |
| nixonix | tables and graphs at the bottom of it | 21:14 |
| nixonix | similar viral load during the first 6 days | 21:14 |
| nixonix | they dropping much faster than with unvaccinated | 21:14 |
| nixonix | also way more asymptomatic. did we mention "typhoid marys" walking around last summer? | 21:15 |
| LjL | no, i hadn't seen it. hmm, still it's about viral load though... i guess it's hard to measure another way | 21:16 |
| nixonix | then the link a bit later about barnstables, mass | 21:16 |
| nixonix | also there was that houston paper somewhere. found | 21:17 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.19.21260808v1 | 21:17 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medrxiv.org: Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 cause significantly increased vaccine breakthrough COVID-19 cases in Houston, Texas | medRxiv | 21:17 |
| nixonix | check the other link about singapore cluster too | 21:17 |
| nixonix | but vaccinated dont get infected as often. and the shedding time is shorter | 21:19 |
| LjL | nixonix, you mean https://covid.viz.sg/historic.html ? | 21:20 |
| joerg | >>v<< indeed very hard, particularly for quick results | 21:20 |
| joerg | >>i guess it's hard to measure another way<< indeed very hard, particularly for quick results | 21:20 |
| nixonix | yeah. they dont have new data, so i linked that historical only | 21:20 |
| LjL | joerg, yeah. i don't know why i was under the impression was had gotten very solid data about this recently. i guess sometimes it's just the effect of reading something "big" many times from many articles that talk about it (in this case, the CDC leak and the Massachusetts study) | 21:21 |
| joerg | you'd need trackdown of infection chains back to a vaccinated person giving it to somebody else | 21:21 |
| LjL | that gives me the impression we have this very firmly established, and then when i think about it i realize i don't know how | 21:21 |
| LjL | nixonix, by the way, the link that Brainstorm gave you when you changed to your nick was meant to be to that Daily Mail article that you wanted to remember, but in the meanwhile i've added a lot of other things to Zotero, and i linked it wrong so it links to the whole Zotero group. anyway, that's my tentative new approach for storing interesting links in a less haphazard way than the github page | 21:22 |
| LjL | at least paper-ish links | 21:22 |
| LjL | since that's what Zotero is made for, extracting metadata from papers | 21:23 |
| LjL | (and remembering them) | 21:23 |
| nixonix | i didnt notice, ill check the backlog in a min. i had some other dm link in mind, ill find it too... | 21:23 |
| joerg | PCR tests on vaccinated positive results give a relatively good indea about what to expect I'd guess. However for proper validation you need to do reproduction tests which are hard and slow to do | 21:23 |
| joerg | i.e. when you want to rule out you found 1000 times more virus but it was defect virus only | 21:24 |
| LjL | funny thing i can't find it now in zotero, i might have deleted it accidentally ;( | 21:25 |
| LjL | [01:52:22] *** Quits: nixonix (~nixonix@84-253-235-171.bb.dnainternet.fi) (Quit: Connection closed) | 21:25 |
| LjL | [01:59:50] <LjL> boo | 21:25 |
| LjL | [01:59:51] <LjL> i was too late | 21:25 |
| LjL | [02:00:22] <LjL> %tell nixonix https://www.zotero.org/groups/4391070/covid-links/ https://www.zotero.org/groups/4391070/covid-links/library | 21:25 |
| LjL | [02:00:22] <Brainstorm> LjL, I'll pass nixonix your message when they are around. | 21:25 |
| LjL | [02:00:41] <LjL> here's the first shiny document uploaded to our new experimental Zotero page - a Daily Mail article! | 21:25 |
| LjL | obviously the wrong (not-direct) link, but i guess i was too excited to notice :P | 21:25 |
| LjL | ah it is there | 21:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID Zotero group: Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine-breakthrough infections: a multi-center cohort study: Type Journal Article Author Po Ying Chia Author Sean Wei Xiang Ong Author Calvin J. Chiew Author Li Wei Ang Author Jean-Marc Chavatte Author Tze-Minn Mak Author Lin Cui Author Shirin Kalimuddin [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/gtEKtZ | 21:28 |
| LjL | i guess the global search doesn't search inside URLs so it doesn't see dailymail | 21:28 |
| nixonix | didnt find it searching daily mai, and didnt see daily mail in tag cloud | 21:30 |
| nixonix | Recently, the nation's top infectious disease expert says the Indian 'Delta' Covid variant has the same viral levels in vaccinated people who have breakthrough infections as in those who are unvaccinated, citing unreleased data. Dr Anthony Fauci told MSNBC on Wednesday that means vaccinated people can spread Delta, backing up the recent guidance | 21:30 |
| nixonix | change | 21:30 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9839697/Fauci-says-CDC-changed-mask-guidance-vaccinated-people-spread-Indian-Delta-variant.html | 21:30 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.dailymail.co.uk: Fauci says CDC changed mask guidance because vaccinated people can spread Indian 'Delta' variant | Daily Mail Online | 21:31 |
| nixonix | their long headline was much better | 21:31 |
| LjL | "unreleased data" :P | 21:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +11397 cases (now 6.2 million), +51 deaths (now 112051) since 18 hours ago — Monaco: +29 cases (now 2926) since a day ago | 21:32 |
| joerg | hmmm https://i.imgur.com/xPrjMpw.png (zotero) | 21:36 |
| joerg | no idea if that whole thing doesn't like my "ancient" JS in FF-LTS or whatever the problem - selection never returns, gets stuck in ^^^ | 21:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: News Scan for Aug 03, 2021: Kids' myopia and COVID-19 COVID-19 and childbirth H5N1 avian flu in Togo → https://is.gd/gxxyT9 | 21:39 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21463-2 | 21:39 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nature.com: Antibody affinity maturation and plasma IgA associate with clinical outcome in hospitalized COVID-19 patients | Nature Communications | 21:39 |
| LjL | joerg, i don't know... alternatively Zotero is an open source application you can run locally, as well, and sync the data with the group library, but then you'd have to make an account and be added to the group to sync it locally | 21:44 |
| LjL | joerg, or you can go to https://www.zotero.org/groups/4391070/covid_links/ and see recent additions, but it's a much more simplified view | 21:45 |
| LjL | or you can use the RSS feed at https://api.zotero.org/groups/4391070/items/top?direction=desc&format=atom&sort=date | 21:46 |
| joerg | also sorry if it's just me being to senile to understand, but trying all the URLs of above, best I can get to is https://i.imgur.com/xmvuQ1y.png with even using "find on page" and no idea how to open the original document | 21:47 |
| LjL | joerg, double click on the entry in the main list to open | 21:47 |
| joerg | which one? | 21:47 |
| LjL | the document you want to open... | 21:47 |
| joerg | there seem to be 59 of those | 21:47 |
| LjL | yes | 21:48 |
| LjL | presumably you know which one you want to open? | 21:48 |
| LjL | maybe i don't understand the question | 21:48 |
| joerg | how do I know which document that is, I followed [3 Aug 2021 21:25:39] <LjL> [02:00:22] <LjL> %tell nixonix https://www.zotero.org/groups/4391070/covid-links/ https://www.zotero.org/groups/4391070/covid-links/library | 21:48 |
| LjL | joerg, as i said i made a mistake in that link, it links to the entire library instead of a specific document | 21:48 |
| joerg | and [3 Aug 2021 21:28:20] <Brainstorm> New from COVID Zotero group: Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine-breakthrough infections: a multi-center cohort study: Type Journal Article Author Po Ying Chia Author Sean Wei Xiang Ong Author Calvin J. Chiew Author Li Wei Ang Author Jean-Marc Chavatte Author Tze-Minn Mak Author Lin Cui Author Shirin Kalimuddin [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/gtEKtZ | 21:49 |
| LjL | and now i can't link the specific document from Zotero because it's not in the "recent" anymore | 21:49 |
| LjL | but it was... | 21:49 |
| LjL | this https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9791983/Up-Brits-doubled-jabbed-AstraZeneca-Covid-symptoms-compared-Pfizer.html | 21:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: China's Delta-driven COVID clusters expand: Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News Aug 03, 2021 Wuhan is reporting its first local cases since May of 2020, as multiple cities track new clusters. → https://is.gd/oPEowP | 21:50 |
| LjL | i don't see a way to link to it *within Zotero* unless it's still listed in the recently-added ones | 21:50 |
| joerg | I just wonder how brainstorm found that plaintext while I had to use "find in page" to track it down | 21:50 |
| nixonix | In each of the groups we identified individuals with either high or low titers, demonstrating discordance between neutralization titers and disease severity and outcome | 21:50 |
| nixonix | In these fatal cases, minimal or no anti-spike antibody affinity maturation was observed from the initial sample to the last sample until their demise. Patients that survived after ICU admission demonstrated a gradual increase in antibody affinity over time | 21:50 |
| nixonix | non-ICU patients demonstrated even higher antibody affinity maturation | 21:51 |
| LjL | joerg, Brainstorm monitors the RSS feed i linked to | 21:51 |
| LjL | the RSS feed contains Zotero-internal links to individual items, like https://www.zotero.org/groups/4391070/covid_links/items/C4B67796 | 21:52 |
| LjL | but i don't know how to create those links manually, except by using the RSS feed itself or the Recent page | 21:52 |
| LjL | it's basically missing a "Share" button. i mean you can easily share the article's URL, just not the thing inside Zotero that links to that URL | 21:53 |
| joerg | ok, what am I supposed to do if I "[... want %more?] → https://is.gd/gtEKtZ " ? | 21:53 |
| LjL | %more | 21:54 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, [...] Tennessee, United States: +6864 cases (now 900418), +25 deaths (now 12749) since 2 days ago → https://paste.ee/p/X48GY | 21:54 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, [...] Author Wan Ni Chia Author Chee Wah Tan Author Louis Yi Ann Chai Author Seow Yen Tan Author Shuwei Zheng Author Raymond Tzer Pin Lin Author Linfa Wang Author Yee-Sin Leo Author Vernon J. Lee Author David Chien Lye Author Barnaby Edward Young URL https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1 Rights © 2021, Posted by Cold Spring Harbor [...] → https://paste.ee/p/zItPs | 21:54 |
| LjL | but that just spits out the rest of the content | 21:54 |
| LjL | not sure it's what you want | 21:54 |
| joerg | I want to maybe read the document brainstorm cited? | 21:54 |
| LjL | joerg, if you click on https://is.gd/gtEKtZ the article involved is highlighted in the main list (but you may have to scroll to see it!), and if you don't to scroll, since it's selected, you can click on the "···" button and "View Online" | 21:56 |
| joerg | aaah thanks | 21:56 |
| joerg | ... view online, that's the very obvious ;-) stepp I missed | 21:57 |
| LjL | it's not so obvious, but it took me a while to understand what you meant | 21:59 |
| LjL | "View Online" is the equivalent of double-clicking the item | 21:59 |
| LjL | but if the item is buried in the scroll, it may be easier to do that | 21:59 |
| nixonix | it looks like ab maturation is important. maybe that 3 weeks between doses is enough for severe symptoms tho, since those with natural infection usually cleared it even faster | 22:02 |
| nixonix | but it will be interesting to see the difference between short and long intervals, when a few months more passes | 22:03 |
| nixonix | now all this neut ab titer correlation study going on, i wonder how they consider affinity maturation, or mostly just titer strength | 22:05 |
| nixonix | correlate of protection, that is | 22:06 |
| nixonix | significantly higher antibody affinity maturation (fold change in antibody off-rate of last time-point from first-time point during hospitalization) was observed in survivors (ICU or non-ICU) compared with fatal cases, with mean fold change in antibody dissociation rate of 61.1 for non-ICU survivor’s vs. 22.5 for ICU survivor’s vs. 1.97 for | 22:06 |
| nixonix | fatal cases | 22:06 |
| nixonix | The neutralizing antibody titers varied among patients in all three groups and did not predict disease outcome | 22:07 |
| nixonix | the two last one was from that paper, not mine. should use "" when not obvious | 22:07 |
| nixonix | Therefore, it seems that in more severe COVID-19 patients, even though they can generate high binding and neutralizing antibody titres, there is a block to antibody affinity maturation that may be linked to deficiency in CD4 cells, and especially T-follicular helper cells subsets, which are required for entry into germinal center (GC) | 22:11 |
| nixonix | i wonder what could cause stopping the maturation when 2nd dose is given. prob not deficiency of those cells, but maybe the cytokine environment after the vaccine indirectly affects the same thing | 22:14 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.thelocal.it/20210802/covid-vaccine-bookings-halted-in-rome-as-hackers-shut-down-regional-government-websites/ | 22:27 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix, the URL could not be loaded | 22:27 |
| LjL | yes, it sounds pretty ridiculous, it's been two or three days already with "the attack ongoing" | 22:31 |
| LjL | except the attack is described as ransomware that someone working for Latium injected by clicking on an email attachment | 22:31 |
| LjL | and they've promised they'll restore vaccine booking within 72 hours, but how do they know that if "the attack" "is ongoing"? | 22:31 |
| nixonix | gotta paste one more interesting bit: | 22:37 |
| nixonix | the relative contribution of IgA to spike binding antibodies was higher and longer-lasting in most of the severe patients compared with the non-ICU patients throughout the hospital stay. The role of plasma IgA antibodies on SARS-CoV-2 is not clear, since these antibodies may not reach the site of virus infection in the upper and lower respiratory | 22:37 |
| nixonix | tract. | 22:37 |
| nixonix | IgA also lacks the effector function of IgG in ADCC and complement activation. A recent study suggested that systemic IgA antibody binding to memory B cells has a negative regulatory activity on antigen receptor B-cell activation | 22:37 |
| LjL | well, i hope someone understands that, but that person is not me :P | 22:38 |
| LjL | feeling pretty bummed now for getting my 2nd pfizer dose after "only" one month now though! | 22:38 |
| nixonix | adcc is antibody dependent cell-dependent cytotoxicity | 22:39 |
| nixonix | meaning if i recall antibodies binding to virions marking them to immune cells | 22:40 |
| nixonix | *cell-mediated | 22:40 |
| LjL | is this saying that developing IgA is probably bad? | 22:41 |
| LjL | %title https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02125-1 | 22:42 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.nature.com: Surprise dip in UK COVID cases baffles researchers | 22:42 |
| de-facto | comment to above discussion: if PCR finds 1000 times as much viral load it did get produced by that host, hence at some point was highly infectious, i dont think we have any reason to assume most of it is defect (otherwise it would not have replicated up to such a low PCR CT value) | 22:42 |
| LjL | One thing it doesn’t mean, says Edmunds, is that the United Kingdom has built up enough population immunity through vaccination and natural infection to stop the virus spreading. “The drop in cases is unprecedented to some extent, in that it seemed to occur everywhere,” he says — something which has been previously seen only after lockdowns. “But herd immunity would come in different places at different times.” | 22:42 |
| nixonix | no, it was just severe cases had stronger iga response, to spike anyway. and they dont fully understand their role | 22:42 |
| LjL | "“Nobody really knows what’s going on,” says epidemiologist John Edmunds at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)." | 22:42 |
| LjL | i think i'm not as surprised as these scientists... | 22:42 |
| LjL | i don't know *why* it happened either, but i think i've seen this pattern a few other times, haven't we de-facto, joerg? | 22:43 |
| LjL | like in the NL, and every time i mentioned that it seemed like the stronger a peak was, the faster it would go down again | 22:43 |
| LjL | and that i didn't find just lockdowns sufficient to explain it | 22:43 |
| LjL | de-facto has his own theory about different cohorts of people not interacting much | 22:43 |
| LjL | so it may "exhaust" a cohort | 22:44 |
| LjL | i don't know about that, but it just seems to me that the UK case is not new/unique | 22:44 |
| nixonix | i thought it could mean, since they found antibodies from 90% or so, combined natural and/or vaccine, level of herd immunity | 22:45 |
| de-facto | yeah another question regarding UK: even with restrictions taken back, how much did their "pingdemic" help them with lowering reproduction numbers? (i dont live in UK hence i cant tell how many got isolated in quarantine) | 22:45 |
| nixonix | and as i wrote here a few days ago, the strange thing was all the regions at the same time | 22:45 |
| LjL | nixonix, but this article specifically says they think it's NOT herd immunity | 22:45 |
| de-facto | yet I would guess that is not such a big effect, since most were already infectious prior to their positive test | 22:45 |
| LjL | de-facto, i have it from hearsay that a few people have uninstalled the contact tracing app because it was telling too many people to quarantine, and that was causing problems in workplaces, and they exempted some workers (food industry) | 22:46 |
| nixonix | but those with lowest vaccine coverage are under 35yo or so, so if we assume not that many breakthroughs in uk since long dose intervals, its mostly those younger that is smaller part of population so high number of cases just to them | 22:46 |
| nixonix | could produce enough herd immunity | 22:46 |
| LjL | nixonix, i think it even happens across different countries. two waves that either happen together, or start separately but then "merge" and go down at the same time. maybe i'm just noticing patterns that aren't there due to selection bias or something, but i keep noticing that when i compare things on offloop | 22:47 |
| nixonix | while vaccinatiosn progressed fast in all the regions at the same rate | 22:47 |
| de-facto | LjL, i read that too, hence i ask myself what epidemiological impact that isolation of many near infection chains may have had, possibly more successful than assumed? surely it had *some* contribution, yet hard to tell how much | 22:47 |
| nixonix | theres an alternative explanation, i linked here too, lemme find it... | 22:47 |
| LjL | de-facto, we need to know how many people were as compliant as pwr22 ;) | 22:48 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/garywfuller/status/1418630244622168065 | 22:48 |
| nixonix | its dying | 22:48 |
| LjL | that's not much of an explanation O.o | 22:49 |
| de-facto | nixonix, that would be really cool, hence my theory of it burning through the densely connected cohorts with most susceptible (lowest seroprevalence), yet i always try to find alternative explanations because those would reveal more interesting results such as what could have been done right then | 22:51 |
| nixonix | young people think its not bad anymore (because it spreads mostly among them, and older folks are vaccinated), and dont go to test when they have symptoms, not to be quarantined. then it just spreads until sub-group level herd immunity is reached | 22:51 |
| TurboTech | Good afternoon everyone | 22:51 |
| de-facto | TurboTech, good afternoon :) | 22:51 |
| nixonix | herd immunity depending on restrictions, behavior, immunity etc. if more restrictions are lifted, people start going more to public places, schools start, the fall comes etc, that will raise the bar and some more immunity is needed | 22:53 |
| nixonix | unless increased vaccinations affect enough | 22:54 |
| nixonix | our summer wave started couple weeks earlier than in most western europe, june 15th, and it looks it isnt experiencing natural death | 22:55 |
| TurboTech | Well in either circumstance, either everyone gets it or everyone gets it. | 22:56 |
| nixonix | because less immunity from infections, and they gave more vaccine doses to other europeans | 22:56 |
| TurboTech | The real question comes down to how bad of a case do you want. | 22:56 |
| TurboTech | just my opinion. | 22:57 |
| TurboTech | Can talk a little science. | 22:57 |
| TurboTech | Medical lab. | 22:57 |
| nixonix | but increased cases mean some people become more careful, reducing contacts. that might be enough to turn the curve in some cases | 22:58 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.19.21260808v2.full | 22:59 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 cause significantly increased vaccine breakthrough COVID-19 cases in Houston, Texas | medRxiv | 22:59 |
| nixonix | when the suspectible part of population becomes smaller and smaller. like if it was mostly among 16-35 yo, and those 25-35 reduced contacts. older ones are vaccinated, and for younger kids, their parents tell them not to go drinking on streets during the pandemia | 23:00 |
| TurboTech | Regarding Houston. I know a guy right now who is about to die because someone from Houston went to his church and plastered the whole church. | 23:02 |
| specing | parents use cars and consumer culture to pollute the planet and aggrevate climate change for young people to suffer | 23:02 |
| specing | also parents: don't go out during a pandemic or old people might die | 23:02 |
| specing | nixonix:^ | 23:03 |
| de-facto | just a crazy idea: what if Delta replicates that much faster initially that it also causes a bigger signal on the radar of the immune system and thereby the immune response starts earlier? would that lower the probability of it descending into the lower respiratory tract (e.g. younger immune systems can prevent that) or would the faster replication give it an advantage over in descending over the immune response (maybe only in elderly)? | 23:05 |
| nixonix | there was quick reduction in daily cases in croatia late last year, i thought it was sub-group level of herd immunity reached, like young people spreading it most. then it increased again when uk variant hit there | 23:05 |
| nixonix | the same in florida. also croatia and florida are currently going up again, because of even more spreading variant (in croatia the starting level is very low now, though) | 23:07 |
| nixonix | but if those most spreading groups reached herd immunity with earlier variant, whatever was needed for them and their restrictions, lets say 70% pre uk variant, then they did it again with uk variant, maybe 10% more needed, and now with indian, another 10% perhaps but vaccinations helping | 23:09 |
| de-facto | oh wow almost same (low) CT value for non-vaccinated and fully vaccinated breakthrough cases with Delta in the Houston preprint above | 23:09 |
| nixonix | so the extra steps are small, esp with vaccines | 23:09 |
| nixonix | thats why in countries with high level of total infections it wont take long when curves may go down again | 23:10 |
| de-facto | hmm nixonix what do you think could an initial super high viral load even be an advantage for the host (but disadvantage for spreading) when the immune system is able (in the young) to get a super "loud" signal to neutralize it, prior to it reaching the lungs? | 23:13 |
| de-facto | meaning could delta be extra dangerous for older immune systems but less dangerous for younger (e.g. compared to ALpha)? | 23:13 |
| nixonix | age group level severity analysis anywhere? | 23:14 |
| de-facto | would need to compare data in naive infections with both, Alpha and Delta, by each age group separately | 23:14 |
| nixonix | they dont even agree if its more severe or not. it seems its not for those already admitted to hospital, but the hospitalization rate seems to be. that eric dude had links in one if his posts, if i find, but heres a pic from that sg paper on viral loads | 23:15 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1421874289398194187 | 23:15 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full-text | 23:17 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine-breakthrough infections: a multi-center cohort study | medRxiv | 23:17 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1421030822539317249 | 23:17 |
| de-facto | hmm but still since IFR is some exponential of age the elderly are more likely to contribute to hospitalizations if infections would be equally spread over all age groups, hence if Delta is more severe in elderly and elderly contribute the most to hospitalizations anyhow it could hide a (potentially, hypothesized) lower probability of hospitalizations in younger | 23:22 |
| de-facto | but yeah thats completely speculative, i havent seen any data supporting that | 23:22 |
| nixonix | school spreading wasnt a big issue here with older variants, even with kent. the kids usually infected each other in after school activity. with higher viral loads of this variant, it will be interesting and terrifying time soon, schools starting next week here | 23:26 |
| nixonix | and they are planing to decide on 12-16yo vaccinations next week | 23:27 |
| de-facto | yeah we will see soon, i expect a wave in children in schools here too | 23:28 |
| de-facto | hopefully its not a problem, idk | 23:28 |
| nixonix | now if they get permanent damage from infections, i want to see those responsible for almost zero mitigation effects in jail | 23:28 |
| specing | nixonix: who is planning to decide? comirnaty has been approved for 12+ for a month now | 23:28 |
| joerg | >>if PCR finds 1000 times as much viral load it did get produced by that host, hence at some point was highly infectious, i dont think we have any reason to assume most of it is defect (otherwise it would not have replicated up to such a low PCR CT value)<< it's not as simple. IIRC what Drosen(?) explained, a cell produces thousands and thousands of viruses and a huge fraction of them are junk/defect/nonfunctional. Nevertheless a PCR would detect them, so in | 23:28 |
| joerg | theory you _could_ find a situation where a higher virus load detected by PCR doesn't mean higher infectiousness, though the likelihood is small. - And I could even be wrong on that, I didn't invest perticular effort to memorize and broaden the info I scooped up about that topic | 23:28 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/RadCentrism/status/1422259585193181187 | 23:28 |
| nixonix | finnish politicians are deciding that, not even healthcare officials | 23:29 |
| nixonix | they finally recommened it couple of weeks ago. before that they seemed to disagree and some of them even tweeted kids dont need vaccinations | 23:29 |
| nixonix | hc officials, that is | 23:29 |
| de-facto | joerg, i meant if it was able to infect cells with higher rate (up to 1000-fold) in one host (as seen by PCR values), why should it not be able to do the same during transmission and then also in another host? | 23:30 |
| de-facto | meaning there must have been enough *intact* virions at some point to cause that 1000-fold viral load (inside that host there) | 23:31 |
| de-facto | correction: not the infection rate, but the accumulated virions are 1000-fold with 10 CT values difference | 23:32 |
| joerg | LjL: >>i think i've seen this pattern a few other times<< I don't think we seen a similar effect with lack of obvious explanations to the the reasons causing it, I might have forgotten though. I still bet on schools and preemptive change behavior change of population despite/contrary to the "official" NPI | 23:33 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1648 | 23:33 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.bmj.com: Long covid—mechanisms, risk factors, and management | The BMJ | 23:33 |
| de-facto | but yeah ultimately a challenge test in S3 lab in cell cultures should me made, i agree, yet i assume with 1000 fold viral load Delta really is *much* more contagious | 23:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +3636 cases (now 31.7 million) since 15 hours ago — Canada: +5 deaths (now 26605) since 21 hours ago | 23:36 |
| joerg | de-facto: :nod: | 23:37 |
| nixonix | it could well be, that larger part of indian variant producing virions are damaged, eg that only 10x more virions airborne or something. because 1000x in air sounds a bit extreme | 23:51 |
| nixonix | also some people think that its only or mostly in mucous, those way higher viral loads. meaning it wouldnt be more lethal | 23:52 |
| joerg | hypothetical: *if* a single virus entering a cell used to produce 10 working and 10 defect replicas, and now the Delta mutation changed that to 10 working and 10000 junk replica, you'd see a similar replication within one host but you see a 1000 times "higher virus load (PCR)" which despite that wouldn't mean an increased spreading of infectious virus. As I said, the likelihood is next to "impossible" but *in theory* it could happen | 23:53 |
| nixonix | yeah but theres a limit how many virions one cell can produce, so maybe change the above to 100 working or something, perhaps | 23:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: Andy Becker: Baiya Phytopharm Co Ltd: Baiya SARS-CoV-2 Vax 1 Vaccine → https://is.gd/bs21km | 23:55 |
| de-facto | what was that "proofreading" protein? NSP-10/14 or such? does Delta have any major mutations on those? | 23:56 |
| nixonix | exon is nsp14 | 23:57 |
| de-facto | if those were damaged fidelity of Delta could do down maybe? | 23:57 |
| nixonix | maybe have a pill of molnupiravir .title https://www.medscape.com/answers/2500114-199915/what-is-the-role-of-molnupiravir-and-favipiravir-in-the-treatment-of-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19 | 23:59 |
| nixonix | .title | 23:59 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medscape.com: What is the role of molnupiravir and favipiravir in the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)? | 23:59 |
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