| de-facto | hmm LjL that seems to be a big earthquake there in Taiwan? | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | de-facto, yes, i get magnitude reports between 5.8 and 6.6 so i'm not quite sure how big yet, *but*, also, that "16 million people" is much less in another report, so it depends where the epicenter is exactly | 00:01 |
| LjL | Brainstorm reported it here from Japan's seismological agency, they may not be reporting as accurately as Taiwan's own, we'll see | 00:01 |
| LjL | Geofon has it, but EMSC and USGS don't yet | 00:02 |
| LjL | also my computer is crashing | 00:02 |
| nixonix | only 10% of sars1 was furin cleaved before binding, sars2 50% and with 617.2 p681r mutation its supposed to be 75%. making nrp1 more likely | 00:02 |
| LjL | http://geofon.gfz-potsdam.de/eqinfo/event.php?id=gfz2021pemk | 00:03 |
| nixonix | diabetics have more nrp1 in kidney | 00:03 |
| de-facto | interesting, where do you get those numbers from? | 00:04 |
| nixonix | TMPRSS2) and neuropilin-1 (NRP1) are expressed in pancreatic beta cells | 00:05 |
| nixonix | which numbers, i have several studies open | 00:05 |
| LjL | lol | 00:05 |
| TurboTech | .title https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004218302347 | 00:05 |
| Brainstorm | TurboTech: From www.sciencedirect.com: Neuropilin-1 Controls Endothelial Homeostasis by Regulating Mitochondrial Function and Iron-Dependent Oxidative Stress - ScienceDirect | 00:05 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02039-y | 00:05 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nature.com: How the coronavirus infects cells — and why Delta is so dangerous | 00:05 |
| * LjL tries to imagine how many studies nixonix has open on average | 00:05 | |
| nixonix | a lot | 00:05 |
| LjL | i don't know how you can keep up, i cannot keep up with you fwiw | 00:06 |
| nixonix | .title https://adc.bmj.com/content/early/2021/05/27/archdischild-2020-321220 | 00:06 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From adc.bmj.com: New-onset type 1 diabetes in Finnish children during the COVID-19 pandemic | Archives of Disease in Childhood | 00:06 |
| TurboTech | .title https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/22/15/7762 | 00:07 |
| himesama | biology seems to have more technical terms than most STEM fields | 00:07 |
| Brainstorm | TurboTech: From www.mdpi.com: IJMS | Free Full-Text | Diabetic Nephropathy and COVID-19: The Potential Role of Immune Actors | 00:07 |
| nixonix | but still, while not that many autopsies done for expired sars2 patients, sars2 infection is only rarely found in cns cells. maybe its t-cell infiltration like leonardi thinks | 00:09 |
| LjL | de-facto, USGS and EMSC have it now, it's probably no biggie https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000f29v/executive | 00:10 |
| de-facto | "only 10% of sars1 was furin cleaved before binding, sars2 50% and with 617.2 p681r mutation its supposed to be 75%. making nrp1 more likely" <-- where do you got those percentages from? | 00:10 |
| nixonix | some study found sars2 favors astrocyte cells in cns | 00:10 |
| nixonix | In SARS-CoV, less than 10% of spike proteins are primed, says Menachery, whose lab group has been quantifying the primed spike proteins but is yet to publish this work. In SARS-CoV-2, that percentage rises to 50%. In the Alpha variant, it’s more than 50%. In the highly transmissible Delta variant, the group has found, greater than 75% of spikes | 00:11 |
| nixonix | are primed to infect a human cell | 00:11 |
| de-facto | LjL, oh ok good to know, was a bit worried at first when i read the news from Bridgestorm | 00:11 |
| nixonix | that nature link above | 00:11 |
| nixonix | i think i mentioned that around week ago and linked that article too | 00:11 |
| LjL | de-facto, it's hard to tell in these cases, when it's an island and "small" epicenter/magnitude difference can make all the difference | 00:11 |
| nixonix | or i was planning anyway | 00:12 |
| de-facto | ah nice thanks | 00:12 |
| LjL | de-facto, <Brainstorm> 'Also how come no earthquake alert?' (language: en, from: None, 6s ago, by: trickytaipei) → Taiwan (25.04, 121.55) ± 3 km, 5.0 (just guessing), 2021-08-04 22:13:55.500000+00:00 ← hehe subscribe to ljlbot and you'll get alert :P | 00:15 |
| LjL | (the real answer though is probably their system realized it wasn't strong enough to send an early warning) | 00:16 |
| LjL | de-facto, https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/oy3fru/us_plans_to_require_covid19_shots_for_foreign/ Brainstorm will probably post soon, but see comment :P | 00:19 |
| nixonix | i think sars2 virions can enter cells without membrane fusion happening, by endocytosis. how often, which type of cells, different surface proteins needed etc, idk | 00:19 |
| nixonix | i just saw it somewhere | 00:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: US plans to require COVID-19 shots for foreign travelers → https://is.gd/Omxvld | 00:20 |
| de-facto | LjL, heh :P | 00:20 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.jbc.org/article/S0021-9258(21)00075-2/fulltext | 00:21 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.jbc.org: SARS-CoV-2 infects cells after viral entry via clathrin-mediated endocytosis - Journal of Biological Chemistry | 00:21 |
| nixonix | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_entry#Entry_via_endocytosis | 00:33 |
| nixonix | the main route being membrane fusion for sars2 apparently, but im not sure if other routes like endocytosis are confirmed, and how often they happen. i think it might well be that certain type of cells like lacking ace2 and or tmprss2 endocytosis could happen | 00:35 |
| nixonix | okay, no then | 00:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): [Clinical Picture] Mucormycosis after COVID-19 in a patient with diabetes: A 44-year-old man attended our hospital reporting reduced vision in his left eye. 10 days earlier he had been started on treatment with supplemental oxygen, intravenous antibiotics, and corticosteroids because of a moderately severe pneumonia caused [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/mRtBe4 | 00:41 |
| nixonix | Corneal confocal microscopy identifies corneal small nerve fibre loss and increased DCs in patients with long COVID, especially those with neurological symptoms. CCM could be used to objectively identify patients with long COVID | 00:43 |
| himesama | link? | 00:45 |
| nixonix | ill link, a min | 01:00 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/ArielKarlinsky/status/1422478212328796173 | 01:00 |
| nixonix | .title https://bjo.bmj.com/content/early/2021/07/08/bjophthalmol-2021-319450 | 01:00 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From bjo.bmj.com: Corneal confocal microscopy identifies corneal nerve fibre loss and increased dendritic cells in patients with long COVID | British Journal of Ophthalmology | 01:00 |
| nixonix | that tweet above is about excess mortality in some countries, peru was the 1st per capita, if i recall | 01:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Cuba battles soaring Covid cases with hotels becoming hospitals → https://is.gd/yruSyP | 01:02 |
| nixonix | then a few eastern european countries, two in latin america, then again eastern europe... check the whole thread and this link | 01:03 |
| nixonix | .title https://elifesciences.org/articles/69336 | 01:03 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From elifesciences.org: Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset | eLife | 01:03 |
| himesama | they looked at controls but not at non-lc cases? | 01:05 |
| himesama | in that other one, the error bars are surprisingly small except for serbia and russia | 01:06 |
| nixonix | unfortunately that isnt accurate. like some countries, was it norway, showing negative number. they also shouldnt use just average of the last 5 years, but consider the flu epidemic being easy and short 2020 and not existing 2021, heat waves in different years etc | 01:09 |
| nixonix | also high immigration in some countries like sweden reducing mortality numbers, when they are young. including their higher fertility etc | 01:10 |
| nixonix | idk if theres good analysis on europe, IHME failed fore europe. maybe their us analysis is good, idk | 01:10 |
| nixonix | for usa, that is | 01:10 |
| nixonix | but for high mortality countries its still useful to estimate the prevalence, like when considering if the partial herd immunity would be reached or not, when cases start to drop (while they are not evenly spread, and young and other superspreader groups matter most) | 01:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: U.S. developing plan to require foreign visitors to be vaccinated → https://is.gd/edmFcr | 01:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Togo: +179 cases (now 16232) since a day ago | 01:31 |
| gry | hi | 01:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: CDC: Delta Variant Accounts for More than 93 Percent of all US COVID-19 Cases → https://is.gd/DJDF8I | 01:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nigeria: +1249 cases (now 176011), +4 deaths (now 2167) since 23 hours ago | 02:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: Courts continue to uphold precendent allowing mask, vaccine mandates → https://is.gd/16YByN | 02:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Patient commentary: Protect patients like me—make covid vaccines mandatory for all eligible staff in care settings: The US president, Joe Biden, has now said that all civilian federal workers must have covid-19 vaccination or face once or twice weekly testing and other restrictions.1 A number of US healthcare... → https://is.gd/9Dph5j | 02:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Fr. Polynesia: +457 cases (now 21316) since 23 hours ago — France: +20285 cases (now 6.2 million), +40 deaths (now 112119) since 20 hours ago — Vietnam: +3352 cases (now 177813), +256 deaths (now 2327) since 19 hours ago — Netherlands: +2039 cases (now 1.9 million), +5 deaths (now 17981) since 20 hours ago | 02:34 |
| Trippy72894 | LjL there is another case in haikou | 02:35 |
| Trippy72894 | https://www.tropicalhainan.com/update-on-hu-case-and-covid-19-testing-of-residents-across-haikou/ | 02:35 |
| Trippy72894 | a mystery how he got it. as you may know, we need QR codes to get into places like malls and restaurants. if he was where we were, then our QR code turns orange or something and the govt phones you and you freak out. | 02:36 |
| Trippy72894 | end report | 02:36 |
| Trippy72894 | afk | 02:36 |
| Trippy72894 | only half of residents in open public spaces wearing masks, so nobody is too worried. | 02:36 |
| Trippy72894 | afk | 02:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: More mental health support needed for frontline workers tackling COVID, study reveals: a global review of studies found high levels of depression, PTSD, anxiety and burn-out amongst frontline staff. → https://is.gd/VYHbgC | 02:36 |
| LjL | Trippy72894, hmm, we actually had a mask mandate *outdoors* too until recently (but many people still didn't respect it) | 03:03 |
| LjL | Trippy72894, QR codes, what happens if you don't scan it? is there always someone checking and making sure you scanned it? | 03:03 |
| LjL | Trippy72894, something that really impresses me about China's handling is that when it gets into some big city, they just test the WHOLE city, the entire population. i don't think we could do that. | 03:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Falkland Is.: +3 cases (now 66) since 2 months ago | 03:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Benin: +214 cases (now 8608), +2 deaths (now 110) since 6 days ago — France: +27481 cases (now 6.2 million), +53 deaths (now 112132) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +27216 cases (now 6.0 million), +124 deaths (now 130119) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +2730 cases (now 1.9 million), +7 deaths (now 17983) since 23 hours ago | 04:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Japan considers expanding COVID-19 curbs as surges strain hospitals → https://is.gd/mK5FmX | 04:43 |
| himesama | maybe add english asahi shimbun / japan times / whatever | 05:13 |
| himesama | or something from hong kong or something | 05:13 |
| himesama | ok some options include japan times, https://the-japan-news.com/, and asahi's Asia & Japan Watch. others are weekly or for ja readers. | 05:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US developing plan to require foreign visitors to be vaccinated: White House official → https://is.gd/aWCyVC | 05:36 |
| gry | but why | 05:41 |
| gry | if i'm not vaccinted, my health insurance doesn't cover my treatment | 05:41 |
| gry | isn't that enough? | 05:41 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Pakistan: +5661 cases (now 1.1 million), +60 deaths (now 23635) since 23 hours ago | 06:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 789: Does delta mean a change?: TWiV reviews a leaked CDC document on virulence and spread of the delta variant, and how anti-alphavirus antibodies that do not neutralize infection can nevertheless protect mice from disease. → https://is.gd/k4NcCZ | 06:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +2176 cases (now 1.1 million), +7 deaths (now 25258) since 22 hours ago | 06:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Fifth of England hospital admissions aged 18-34: The new NHS chief executive urges unvaccinated young adults to get jabbed, saying it is 'so important'. → https://is.gd/zsxtz0 | 06:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A doomsday COVID variant worse than Delta and Lambda may be coming, scientists say → https://is.gd/87Uu80 | 07:11 |
| himesama | i am concerned about cleaning a half faceplate. i know the outside of masks is where virions have been found in large numbers. i put the whole thing in a big ziploc bag, which means, maybe, it gets all around to the face part also? how many days to let it sit to decontaminate? 2-3 days enough? | 07:12 |
| himesama | afk but will see if any answers romorow | 07:13 |
| himesama | thanks | 07:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: ‘Recovery bus’ provides cool relief for S.Korea’s Covid-19 testers → https://is.gd/R2ANru | 07:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Thailand: +20920 cases (now 693305), +160 deaths (now 5663) since 20 hours ago — Mexico: +20685 cases (now 2.9 million), +611 deaths (now 242547) since a day ago — Missouri, United States: +4360 cases (now 696700), +26 deaths (now 10219) since a day ago — Tokyo, Japan: +4166 cases (now 231164), +1 deaths (now 2301) since a day ago | 08:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: World’s Coronavirus infection total passes staggering figure: 200 million → https://is.gd/lqoU8J | 08:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +42982 cases (now 31.8 million), +653 deaths (now 426123) since 15 hours ago | 08:34 |
| finely[m] | This is the first estimate of global production I have seen. | 08:46 |
| finely[m] | "The world is making a couple hundred million doses a week, so there’s not a supply problem,” said Dr. Bruce Aylward, a senior adviser to the World Health Organization. Instead, he said, vaccine-makers and world leaders were electing to put rich countries first" | 08:46 |
| finely[m] | https://indianexpress.com/article/world/covid-19-vaccine-covax-un-7435183/ | 08:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: After months as a Covid success story, China tries to tame Delta → https://is.gd/WUZwAP | 08:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | August 05, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/9pTPRb | 09:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: The CDC Should Do Better: The CDC's failure to report clear and accurate data about how COVID-19 has affected children has opened the door to those who wish to minimize its impact by spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt. They need to do better. The post first appeared on Science-Based Medicine . → https://is.gd/CPw33a | 09:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Uzbekistan: +951 cases (now 133852), +9 deaths (now 910) since a day ago | 09:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Most children recover quickly from COVID-19, but some have lingering symptoms, a study says → https://is.gd/2Bg1z0 | 10:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: From Afghanistan to the Maldives: How India’s SAARC partners are faring in their fight against Covid → https://is.gd/pVY8SS | 10:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Armenia: +329 cases (now 231322), +7 deaths (now 4632) since a day ago — Estonia: +258 cases (now 134479) since a day ago | 10:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Tokyo logs record 5,042 Covid-19 cases as infections surge amid Olympics → https://is.gd/Ia289t | 10:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Japan: +14053 cases (now 970460) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +3579 cases (now 3.8 million) since 19 hours ago | 11:04 |
| xrogaan | finely[m]: that goes without saying. Always been that way. | 11:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: Thousands of Patients Were Implanted With Heart Pumps That the FDA Knew Could Be Dangerous: by Neil Bedi ] ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. John Winkler II was dying of heart failure when doctors came to his hospital bedside, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/OOd3Fz | 11:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Nearly 2,300 people test positive for coronavirus after attending music festivals in Catalonia → https://is.gd/B2JLnu | 11:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virology.ws: Heterologous Vaccine Regimens Might be Better: A heterologous vaccine regimen consisting of a first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine and a second dose of the Pfizer vaccine induces a stronger immune response than a regimen consisting of two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. → https://is.gd/2audCE | 13:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Malaysia: +20596 cases (now 1.2 million), +164 deaths (now 10019) since a day ago | 13:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Flu shot may protect against severe effects of Covid-19: Study → https://is.gd/oEx1Wh | 13:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: All 16 and 17 year olds in the UK to be offered first vaccine dose: All 16 and 17 year olds in the UK will be offered a first dose of the Pfizer BioNTech covid-19 vaccine, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has announced.The committee has not... → https://is.gd/9Mj9u7 | 14:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +3007 cases (now 708079), +37 deaths (now 9994) since a day ago | 14:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): COVID19: News: RECOVERY-RS trial finds continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) reduces need for invasive ventilation in hospitalised COVID-19 patients → https://is.gd/6cGxvn | 14:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +1025 cases (now 722801) since 23 hours ago | 15:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Greenland: +15 cases (now 150) since a day ago — Germany: +4027 cases (now 3.8 million) since 22 hours ago | 15:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: HHS watchdog to review FDA approval of Alzheimer’s drug; Moderna sold $4.2 billion of its Covid-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/84ec7J | 15:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +12744 cases (now 1.3 million), +264 deaths (now 21902) since 23 hours ago | 16:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Serbia: +579 cases (now 724097), +3 deaths (now 7132) since a day ago | 17:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): COVID-19 Antibody Responses in Cystic Fibrosis → https://is.gd/h4wHJ4 | 17:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Safety of an Inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine for Prevention of COVID-19 in Children and Adolescents → https://is.gd/J7dCRX | 17:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Reactogenicity, Safety, and Immunogenicity of Covid-19 Vaccine Booster → https://is.gd/kLFpH7 | 17:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Efficacy, Immunogenicity and Safety of COVID-19 Vaccine , Inactivated in Children and Adolescents → https://is.gd/CLLZDl | 17:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for North Macedonia: +219 cases (now 156926), +4 deaths (now 5501) since 23 hours ago — Switzerland: +1 deaths (now 10909) since 2 hours ago | 17:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Project FLUx COntact-CoVID-19 Faculty of Medicine Paris-Saclay → https://is.gd/i9EnwM | 17:47 |
| LjL | i guess Italy is not on the general EU downwards trend :\ | 17:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): COVID-19 Administration of Single-Dose Subcutaneous or Intramuscular Anti- Spike(s) SARS-CoV-2 Monoclonal Antibodies Casirivimab and Imdevimab in High-Risk Pediatric Participants Under 12 Years of Age → https://is.gd/uEZzft | 17:58 |
| LjL | wave record of +7230 today, and +806 in Lombardy is also a record | 17:58 |
| LjL | Thursday is always the worst day, but regardless... | 17:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +29825 cases (now 6.0 million) since 15 hours ago | 18:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Study of Allogeneic Adipose-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells to Treat Post COVID-19 "Long Haul" Pulmonary Compromise → https://is.gd/CMj0jY | 18:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Albania: +132 cases (now 133442) since 22 hours ago | 18:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Morocco: +12039 cases (now 665325), +72 deaths (now 10087) since a day ago — Italy: +7224 cases (now 4.4 million), +27 deaths (now 128163) since a day ago — Canada: +14 deaths (now 26632) since 16 hours ago | 19:08 |
| ronavax | .title https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/turkmenistan-makes-covid-19-vaccination-mandatory-2021-07-07/ | 19:26 |
| Brainstorm | ronavax: From www.reuters.com: Turkmenistan makes COVID-19 vaccination mandatory | Reuters | 19:26 |
| ronavax | why isnt turkmenistan in offloop? | 19:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kenya: +1571 cases (now 208262), +32 deaths (now 4057) since a day ago — Spain: +28881 cases (now 4.6 million), +110 deaths (now 81931) since 23 hours ago | 19:33 |
| de-facto | nixonix the probably dont publish case data or such | 19:52 |
| ronavax | yeah they dont | 19:59 |
| ronavax | https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8Bhez3XEAAiP0M?format=jpg&name=large | 19:59 |
| ronavax | didnt check, but thats what i read somewhere | 19:59 |
| ronavax | they give 10 Mig pfizer for 5-11 yo and 3 Mig for under 5 | 20:00 |
| de-facto | hmm but they test 2 weeks after their update shot, yet 1 or 6-8 months after booster | 20:02 |
| de-facto | so they compare maximum with ... waned off | 20:02 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1423309668022095873 | 20:02 |
| nixonix | yeah. i think pizer got 5-10x titers - i suppose compared to similar time vs post 2nd | 20:03 |
| de-facto | but interestingly the differences between WT and VoCs become smaller, hence maybe variability in antibody affinity larger? | 20:03 |
| de-facto | or is that also an effect of time? | 20:04 |
| de-facto | probably, since they refine affinity, so 2 weeks after update is less specific as 1 or 7 months after booster | 20:04 |
| nixonix | the problem is they are waning fast, they dont mature post 2nd, and it looks more and more that current s protein vaccines are not long term solution, for lasting immunity | 20:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Amid Delta Surge, Major Companies Mandate Masks, Vaccines: The surge of Delta variant COVID-19 cases is driving companies to revise their rules for masks and vaccinations for both employees and customers. → https://is.gd/5sOYhx | 20:06 |
| de-facto | to measure this properly they would have to take blood samples every week and do ID50 neutralization against a wide spectrum of VoCs to measure both: waning and variability or how "broadly" they bind | 20:06 |
| nixonix | i read about flu vaccines, and when they used oil-in-water adjuvants, there was ab maturation for years, also after yearly new flu vaccines. but those that got non-adjuvanted vaccines, after another vaccine year later, ab's returned to non-matured type | 20:06 |
| nixonix | but those squalene adjuvants are risky. and it was with flu | 20:07 |
| nixonix | there are different types of adjuvants also, it might not apply to other types. certain types modify cytokine profile, and those traditional like alum then boost the response. often used together nowdays | 20:09 |
| nixonix | novavax might allow ab maturation after 2nd dose, perhaps | 20:10 |
| de-facto | why would it stop to mature after 2nd dose with other ? | 20:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Azerbaijan: +1196 cases (now 348074), +4 deaths (now 5043) since 23 hours ago — Turks and Caicos: +13 cases (now 2499) since 4 days ago — India: +43192 cases (now 31.8 million), +659 deaths (now 426276) since 20 hours ago | 20:11 |
| de-facto | and is that even wanted? what does maturation mean? more specific binding to just the one antigen (hence less affinity to variants of it)? | 20:11 |
| nixonix | Under this contract, Member States will be able to purchase up to 100 million doses of the Novavax vaccine, with an option for 100 million | 20:11 |
| nixonix | if they get EUA, or what it was called here | 20:11 |
| nixonix | no, at least with flu vaccines, the maturation increased affinity to non-conserved parts of HA, so it would be better against emerging variants | 20:12 |
| nixonix | for conserved parts, old immunity (vaccines or infections) dominate | 20:13 |
| nixonix | i wonder how well OAS is understood, and if this is the mechanism behind it | 20:14 |
| de-facto | ah ok because we would want a type of immunity that covers also variants of the antigen not included in that vaccine shot | 20:14 |
| de-facto | and also some variability from vaccinated compared with another vaccinated so that the pathogen could not too easily exploit similarities in the immune responses | 20:15 |
| nixonix | theres been thinking what would be effective against variants (besides robust circulating abs - which wane fast without boosters), strong killer t-cell response, or using whole virus vaccines for cell-mediated immunity recognizing non-spike antigens | 20:17 |
| nixonix | the answer might be adjuvanted vaccines | 20:17 |
| nixonix | because of way longer affinity maturation, if its the same with sars2 vaccines | 20:18 |
| de-facto | hmm but what is the difference by adjuvants? | 20:18 |
| nixonix | we can already see, the immunity vs severe symptoms reduces too. from over 90% to 81% in five months or so, in israel | 20:18 |
| de-facto | they would concentrate the immune reaction on the injection site so even less potent antigen reactogenicity could be immunogenic enough? | 20:19 |
| de-facto | dont we have enough of those localized inflammation with the vector and mRNA shots? | 20:19 |
| nixonix | its not proven what makes the difference, but maybe increased follicular helper t-cells needed in germinal centers for maturation | 20:19 |
| de-facto | my arm hurted quite a lot for a few days | 20:19 |
| nixonix | it varies, for me it was a bit less after 2nd dose. but after the 1st i got either nothing else, or possibly slight headache couple days later (not sure of the day - and might be for other reasons) | 20:20 |
| nixonix | i asked for aspiration for the 2nd. the nurse didnt understand, either couldnt heard the word or was unfamiliar with the term. i explaned and she said its not recommended. i had checked what our health institute guidance was, just before.. | 20:22 |
| nixonix | and told its not _required_ | 20:22 |
| nixonix | so she did it | 20:22 |
| TurboTech | Morning, Afternoon, Evening to all. | 20:22 |
| nixonix | same to you | 20:23 |
| TurboTech | My arm is finally coming back to life. | 20:23 |
| genera | the best is yet to come | 20:23 |
| TurboTech | Taking 20 mg melatonin 2x daily. | 20:24 |
| de-facto | arent you sleepy from that? | 20:24 |
| TurboTech | no | 20:24 |
| TurboTech | I do not get sleepy. | 20:24 |
| TurboTech | from it. | 20:24 |
| TurboTech | I noramlly take 10 mg 2x a day but doubled it. | 20:24 |
| TurboTech | post shot. | 20:24 |
| TurboTech | I can probably back down now. | 20:25 |
| de-facto | wow here they sell 1mg melatonin as high-dose sleeping help | 20:25 |
| nixonix | i tried melatonin many times years ago. i got no effect for sleeping, 1-5 mg doses. and im very bad for placebo effects. it just doesnt work for me | 20:25 |
| TurboTech | I need to draw my blood and see how my lymphocytes are handling the shot. | 20:25 |
| de-facto | so you take three weeks worth of their high-dose sleeping help pills | 20:25 |
| de-facto | oh 6 weeks | 20:25 |
| TurboTech | Melatonin is sold in as high as 50mg tabs | 20:25 |
| TurboTech | My wife just bought 25 mg tabs | 20:26 |
| de-facto | whats the reasoning behind taking so much melatonin? | 20:28 |
| nixonix | reducing ROS wasnt it | 20:28 |
| TurboTech | Yes. | 20:28 |
| TurboTech | they are studying it in Covid 19 | 20:29 |
| TurboTech | https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=covid+19&term=Melatonin&cntry=&state=&city=&dist= | 20:29 |
| nixonix | you read that telomere paper? | 20:29 |
| TurboTech | me? | 20:29 |
| nixonix | yeah | 20:29 |
| TurboTech | I do not recal. link me. | 20:29 |
| TurboTech | I read about 8000 papers in the last year and a half. LOL | 20:29 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.23.21255973v1.full | 20:29 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medrxiv.org: EVIDENCE FOR BIOLOGICAL AGE ACCELERATION AND TELOMERE SHORTENING IN COVID-19 SURVIVORS | medRxiv | 20:29 |
| de-facto | there is v2 of it | 20:30 |
| nixonix | some type of antioxidant treatment might reduce the damage | 20:30 |
| nixonix | have there been recent expert comments for that? | 20:30 |
| TurboTech | There is a lot of Data on Resveritrol, Quercetin, Alpha Tocopherol (Vitamin E) | 20:30 |
| TurboTech | Even Olive Oil | 20:31 |
| TurboTech | All Antioxidants. | 20:31 |
| TurboTech | All support endothelium | 20:31 |
| TurboTech | Which is super important. | 20:31 |
| TurboTech | Downregulate reactive oxygen species and upregulat nitric oxide. | 20:32 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/22/11/6151/htm | 20:33 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.mdpi.com: IJMS | Free Full-Text | Evidence for Biological Age Acceleration and Telomere Shortening in COVID-19 Survivors | HTML | 20:33 |
| TurboTech | Local Dr. is treating his patients with high Dose melatonin. when he was in the Air Force his study was melatonin. | 20:35 |
| TurboTech | .title https://devinenews.com/masks-to-melatonin-how-it-works-why-it-works/ | 20:36 |
| Brainstorm | TurboTech: From devinenews.com: Masks to melatonin – how it works, why it works – The Devine News | 20:36 |
| de-facto | idk imho i would try to stick to the conditions under which the vaccine in question was studied and approved to perform reliably | 20:38 |
| TurboTech | These antioxidants have proven themselves as being helpful adjuvents in many treatments alongside vaccinations as well as Chemo Therapy. | 20:39 |
| TurboTech | Underpowered studies do a horrible justice to public health. | 20:40 |
| de-facto | sure, i am not opposing to them being of help, i just think we should have a double blind trial for that in combination with vaccinations | 20:40 |
| de-facto | i mean vaccinations goal is to induce some longterm immunity, maybe reducing ROS too much would shift to innate and not humoral immunity? | 20:42 |
| de-facto | (btw i dont know that, just as an example) | 20:43 |
| TurboTech | I agree, but the problem is it seems as though many of the researchers who come up with trials of over the counter agents either do not understand them well enough to properly dose a strong trial. For instance. The South American 200,000 iu single Dose vitamin D Trial in ICU patients. It takes 2 weeks for that to Vitamin D to be converted from cholecalciferol to 25(OH)D. Patients died in that time. So of course the study failed. | 20:43 |
| nixonix | i was thinking the same, if high dose of melatonin affects immune response. they havent warened about it, afaik though. some have said against taking NSAID after vaccine unless really needed, but thats prob just in case they would affect | 20:44 |
| nixonix | warned | 20:44 |
| TurboTech | The problem is that our diets have already ingrained a large amount of oxidative stress in the system over time causing mitochondrial injury as well as endothelium dysfunction. | 20:45 |
| TurboTech | .title https://aspenjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1177/0148607117699792 | 20:47 |
| Brainstorm | TurboTech: From aspenjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com: Patients With Mitochondrial Disease Have an Inadequate Nutritional Intake - Zweers - 2018 - Journal of Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition - Wiley Online Library | 20:47 |
| de-facto | yeah but then why not try to do moderate (non-high pulse) mobility, eat extra high quality foods, always drink more than enough water, and try to sleep as regular as possible to optimize immunity? | 20:47 |
| de-facto | and also extra diverse foods, just to fill out unknown deficiencies | 20:48 |
| TurboTech | Because food for instance does not have enough vitamin D for one to bring you to a proper level. | 20:48 |
| TurboTech | It's not even close. | 20:48 |
| de-facto | yeah ok, then sunlight too | 20:49 |
| de-facto | funny i could see many to run without t-shirt here on sunny days | 20:49 |
| de-facto | they never did that before the pandemic that often | 20:49 |
| de-facto | though i would not go for a run with a fresh vaccination, just to lower myocarditis risk | 20:50 |
| TurboTech | I am a healthy 47 year old with no known problems. My liver is fine so my vitamin D function should be ok. The sun in winter is too low in the sky. The angle of incidence is not high enough to produce Vitamin D. Not even here in Texas below the 30 latitude. | 20:50 |
| nixonix | sorry, Mcg, not Mig above (what they use when lazy to find mu character) | 20:50 |
| de-facto | well yeah i am taking D3 too tbh | 20:51 |
| TurboTech | I take 6000 IU daily of vitamin D and in the summer my level topped out at 59 ng/mL which is a good. Normal is between 30-100 ng/mL. | 20:51 |
| TurboTech | When Covid 1st came to the US we all analyzed our levels and we were all deficient. 12 ng/mL. | 20:52 |
| de-facto | i take 2k IU or 50µg daily | 20:52 |
| TurboTech | Yes 25 ug is 1000 Iu | 20:52 |
| de-facto | in pharmacies they recommend half of that, yet even 2k may be not enough | 20:52 |
| TurboTech | In november I reanalized my vitamin D while still maintaining 5000 IU Daily. My level fell 18% that is how important the sun is. | 20:53 |
| de-facto | proper way would be to go for a blood analysis and adjust according to that | 20:53 |
| TurboTech | it is part of my job. ;) | 20:53 |
| de-facto | lucky you, so you can quickly measure it | 20:54 |
| TurboTech | My coworker who was taking the same dose in March reanalized and his Level was 20 ng/mL. | 20:54 |
| TurboTech | So if you are not supplementing in winter there is no way you could be replete. | 20:55 |
| nixonix | ive used around 100 µg (a bit more, comes from some other supplement, and added in margarine etc) pre rona, and nowdays 125-250 depending on time of year mostly | 20:55 |
| de-facto | oh btw, what do you think about antibody tests? do they deliver comparable results in terms of their metric, and does it make sense to measure those in order to estimate ID50 levels or such? like to know how well vaccination worked? | 20:55 |
| TurboTech | Our IgG and IgM test is not used for immunity. | 20:56 |
| TurboTech | It was never correlated | 20:56 |
| de-facto | so its just about: yes contact with antigen or no its naive? | 20:56 |
| TurboTech | basically it is a partial quantatative | 20:57 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/hjelle_brian/status/1415453276007407619 | 20:57 |
| de-facto | i would be curious to have some metric for how well vaccination worked | 20:57 |
| TurboTech | Above a certain threshold and you have been exposed so to speak (had covid) | 20:57 |
| de-facto | without some fancy ID50 tests in S3 | 20:57 |
| de-facto | but are those antibody tests have a proper metric? like do they give an estimate how many binding antibodies are contained per ml or such? | 20:58 |
| TurboTech | That is a good question. I am not sure. Give me a second. Let me see if I can find the product insert. | 20:59 |
| TurboTech | I am not at work | 20:59 |
| nixonix | there are some correlations between binding and nab antibories, which are known reasonably well. then they are currently studying a lot neut ab correlate of protection | 20:59 |
| de-facto | sure i am just curious, can also tell in a few days, i am not planing to go for such a test the next week or such | 20:59 |
| nixonix | there are lots of different neut abs though, and usually just some set of them are studied, and hoped for best its representative enough | 21:00 |
| de-facto | nixonix, yeah those antibody titers and ID50 doses always looked quite similar in the graphics of the papers | 21:00 |
| nixonix | florian krammer studied those relations of binding and neut abs, and their kinetics. his old tweets has information | 21:01 |
| TurboTech | This link is huge. | 21:02 |
| TurboTech | How do I post it without yall getting teary eyed | 21:02 |
| de-facto | i would assume they strongly correlate, but i am not sure what kind of properties such an antibody test would have to fulfill in order to maximize antibody levels with neutralization titers | 21:02 |
| TurboTech | Ok scroll down on this. https://www.corelaboratory.abbott/us/en/offerings/segments/infectious-disease/sars-cov-2 | 21:02 |
| de-facto | to maximize *correlation of antibody levels with neutralization titers | 21:06 |
| de-facto | does it give me a number that has a linear correlation with ID50 neutralization ? | 21:08 |
| nixonix | those correlate of protection studies they are doing currently, that i have linked here, are made so they could eg see if immunocompromised patients have got the protection from vaccine or not - and to use for vaccine development so that large RCTs wouldnt be needed | 21:09 |
| nixonix | like that virologist said in his tweets, that information isnt available from commercial tests, yet anyway | 21:09 |
| de-facto | so they only tell me: yes you got the vaccine (as you already know) but now how well it worked? | 21:11 |
| nixonix | yeah, can no tell with high confidence yet. but i guess with low confidence just checking levels of eg binding abs would tell something. not sure if it could or should be used for old ppl and other immunocompromised. maybe | 21:12 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2104756?query=featured_home | 21:13 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nejm.org: SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Patients with Immunosuppression | NEJM | 21:13 |
| de-facto | but how do they do those graphs of antibody levels in all those papers then? they always show those violin plots and next to levels also neutralization and it seems from eyeballing there is quite a good correlation (at least for the whole ensemble) | 21:13 |
| nixonix | they have assumed that binding vs neut abs correlate pretty well, but theres lots of variance between individuals for different nAbs, some of them effective vs especially new variants, some of them not | 21:18 |
| de-facto | surely it does not tell for each individual if being in the upper range of the antibody level cluster also directly correlates with being high in the neutralization levelc cluster | 21:18 |
| nixonix | if you check some studies listing levels for different antibodies, theres huge variation between individuals. and they usually use some set of maybe 20 or so, what ive seen. for some of them some individuals have zero or close, and for some tires might be high | 21:20 |
| nixonix | titres | 21:20 |
| de-facto | yes but there can be two kinds of variations overlapping for each individual: how many antibodies have been produced (and detected as binding to whatever the test uses) and how well their neutralization works in terms of reducing viral replication in vivo | 21:24 |
| de-facto | from those graphs we only would know: yeah the whole ensemble in antibody levels looks similar to the whole ensemble in the neutralization level, yet we would need to compare those two values for each individual separately in order to establish a proper correlation | 21:25 |
| nixonix | neutralization tests are expensive, require lots of manual work and time. they did those a bit in finland to confirm those rapid screening ab test positive results (those have huge fase positive rate) | 21:26 |
| finely[m] | https://pluralistic.net/2021/08/05/comprehensive-sex-ed/#goffman | 21:28 |
| de-facto | yes exactly thats why i would like to know 1) how well antibody levels correlate with neutralization levels per individual (and the variance of that correlation) 2) if there is such a correlation which of the antibody level tests would yield some normalized results in terms of different tests delivering similar numbers for antibody levels | 21:29 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01432-4 | 21:31 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nature.com: A correlate of protection for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is urgently needed | Nature Medicine | 21:31 |
| nixonix | Even titers of binding antibody (e.g., as measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, which are much easier to perform at large scale than neutralization assays are) seemed to correlate well with efficacy | 21:32 |
| nixonix | thats from florian krammer. they dont currently have strong correlates. but maybe enough to see if old ppl and or immunodeficient likely got or didnt get protection from the 2nd dose | 21:35 |
| nixonix | At present, the messaging from regulatory agencies states that “antibody tests should not be used to evaluate a person’s level of immunity or protection from COVID-19.” | 21:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +27796 cases (now 6.2 million), +39 deaths (now 112153) since 23 hours ago | 21:38 |
| nixonix | "The results of this semi-quantitative test should not be interpreted as an indication or degree of immunity or protection from infection." | 21:40 |
| nixonix | from one such study: | 21:44 |
| nixonix | Vaccine efficacy of 80% against primary symptomatic COVID-19 was achieved with an antibody level of 40923 (95% CI: 16748, 125017) and 63383 (95% CI: 16903, not computed (NC)) for anti-spike and anti-RBD, and 185 (95% CI: NC, NC) and 247 (95% CI: 101, NC) for pseudo- and live-neutralisation assays respectively. Antibody responses did not correlate | 21:44 |
| nixonix | with overall protection against asymptomatic infection | 21:44 |
| nixonix | also remembering that curevac failing, their ab titers were high, but it failed for symptomatic infections (they think it could be interpreted to pass the 50% mark though, and said they are applying the EUA) | 21:47 |
| nixonix | which might be just to speed up the approval of the improved version, or maybe smaller trials for it would then be needed. i dont see a big market for new 50% efficacy vaccines. but idk, those chinese are worse against 617.2 | 21:49 |
| nixonix | for those reading, "binding antibody" is a term used for non-neutralising other antibodies (neut abs also bind, but those "binding antibodies" just bind with not much protection) | 21:51 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1423069944632250368 | 21:54 |
| nixonix | i read somewhere a claim that 1/200 kids that get infected will be hospitalized in uk. i think i saw the figure in some article too, but can anyone confirm? identified cases or from putative infected? under what age? | 21:56 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Comunicato stampa del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 32 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/comunicato-stampa-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-32/17592 ) | 21:57 | |
| nixonix | Britain has opted against mass COVID-19 vaccinations for all children and teenagers, with ministers instead preparing to offer doses to vulnerable 12 to 15-year-olds and those about to turn 18 | 21:58 |
| nixonix | meaning within 3 months to 18 | 21:58 |
| nixonix | finland starting next week, 12-15 | 21:58 |
| nixonix | schools reopen next week too... | 21:59 |
| Arsanerit | good luck with that | 21:59 |
| Arsanerit | do they have fans and such? | 22:00 |
| Arsanerit | I mean air purifiers | 22:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: New US COVID-19 cases at 6-month high: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Aug 05, 2021 As the US COVID surge continues, Anthony Fauci, MD, says, "The end game is vaccination." → https://is.gd/GjZMiO | 22:03 |
| de-facto | nixonix, but "binding" and "neutralization" both depend on the epitope offered to the antibody, e.g. how well does the antigen of such an antibody test correlate with the antigen of the pathogen (e.g. Lambda in Peru for Curevac) | 22:03 |
| de-facto | maybe they measured high antibody level against wuhan spike (with the test?) yet had low affinity to lambda spike in vivo? | 22:04 |
| nixonix | arkansas, population 3M https://twitter.com/Cleavon_MD/status/1418364953371811841 | 22:05 |
| nixonix | yeah, but those substituted or deleted epitopes of the variants are known, so for certain monolconal abs its known if they are affected | 22:07 |
| nixonix | or nucleotides of epitopes they target | 22:08 |
| nixonix | i saw a twitter video of 9 yo in ICU. i can link here if anyone wants. and those dont want to see, dont click | 22:09 |
| nixonix | from sars2, that is | 22:10 |
| de-facto | ok lets see | 22:11 |
| Arsanerit | nixonix: pre-existing diseases? | 22:12 |
| de-facto | good question | 22:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from Novavax: (news): Novavax Announces COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Data Demonstrating Four-Fold Increase in Neutralizing Antibody Levels Versus Peak Responses After Primary Vaccination → https://is.gd/lYvv3G | 22:14 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-vaccine-contracts-1.6063776 | 22:15 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.cbc.ca: Canada paid a premium to get COVID-19 vaccine doses from Pfizer earlier than planned | CBC News | 22:15 |
| nixonix | that 9 yo? i dont know | 22:16 |
| nixonix | ok, here. 9 yo in icu: https://twitter.com/FakeNewsHuntres/status/1422631652036018178 | 22:19 |
| Arsanerit | what is the point of showing a 9 year old in an ICU? | 22:21 |
| Arsanerit | To show that (in very rare cases) children can get seriously sick? We already knew that. | 22:21 |
| nixonix | theres currently debate in many countries, should kids be vaccinated or not | 22:22 |
| nixonix | in uk, even under 18 yo | 22:22 |
| Arsanerit | yes, but "it's possible for 9 year olds to get sick" isn't a very useful contribution to that unless accompanied by how rare or frequent that is, and afaik no-one is vaccinating kids under 12 | 22:25 |
| nixonix | chinese coronavac to be approved for over 3 yo in china and brazil, according to irene ... https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1422990093678219272 | 22:25 |
| nixonix | contribution? from me? | 22:25 |
| Arsanerit | Has any country approved any vaccine for under 12 year olds? | 22:25 |
| nixonix | yeah, israel just started for 5+ yo | 22:26 |
| Arsanerit | ah interesting | 22:26 |
| nixonix | contribution? from me? | 22:26 |
| Arsanerit | But is that to protect the kids or to hope to reach herd immunity by vaccinating the kids, because not enough adults are willing? | 22:26 |
| nixonix | both probably | 22:27 |
| nixonix | about that contribution? | 22:27 |
| de-facto | interesting, what is that device on his chest? vibrating his torso to help with curing pneumonia? | 22:30 |
| de-facto | "This child is receiving a bronchodilator along with a mechanical (chest physiotherapy CPT) to loosen secretions in the lungs. Physicians are trying prevent intubation" | 22:32 |
| nixonix | idk, i coulndt watch ): | 22:32 |
| de-facto | never seen this before, but i though something like that | 22:32 |
| nixonix | jsut couple seconds | 22:32 |
| nixonix | there was some discussion in other tweet too above | 22:33 |
| nixonix | also linked a few tweets and other links on the subject, so maybe there was some accompanying contribution... | 22:33 |
| de-facto | idk i dont see anything disturbing in this, we knew children also can get sick (in rare cases) so its good to see they get good care and treatment there | 22:34 |
| nixonix | and also i linked that icu tweet after asking, if anyone wants... | 22:34 |
| de-facto | hope he wins his fight and gets well soon | 22:34 |
| nixonix | rpi hows your symptoms? | 22:34 |
| dTal | I used to go to a Go club on wednesdays, in the before time | 22:36 |
| dTal | yesterday they decided to have a big meetup again, in a pub | 22:37 |
| nixonix | are you a go go girl? | 22:37 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2021/08/02/florida-leads-the-nation-in-kids-hospitalized-for-covid/ | 22:37 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.tampabay.com: Florida leads the nation in kids hospitalized for COVID | 22:37 |
| dTal | today one of them tested positive and has flu like symptoms | 22:37 |
| dTal | stay safe, peeps | 22:37 |
| dTal | nixonix: no | 22:38 |
| nixonix | ): | 22:38 |
| dTal | I think this pandemic has cost me friends | 22:39 |
| dTal | I will never look at some people the same again | 22:39 |
| nixonix | you got us | 22:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ethiopia: +687 cases (now 282498), +3 deaths (now 4406) since a day ago | 22:40 |
| de-facto | same i did quit some friendships, and i dont intend to revive them | 22:42 |
| de-facto | actually i am glad the pandemic is a magnifying glass in many aspects | 22:42 |
| nixonix | why kids, at least 12+ and prob younger too when they release safety data, should be vaccinated, isnt just about immediate or persisting symptoms, but the unknown of the damage to organs, brain etc | 22:44 |
| nixonix | we know the risks of vaccines, and they are very minor for approved mrna | 22:45 |
| nixonix | for protection of other population, maybe not so much for antivaxers, but their parents, grandparents etc. and their friends too | 22:46 |
| nixonix | (and enemies in the same school...) | 22:46 |
| de-facto | hmm but there is no sterilizing immunity with Delta | 22:49 |
| nixonix | reduced. its something | 22:49 |
| de-facto | lowering reproduction number, yes ok and thereby preventing the wave from igniting | 22:49 |
| de-facto | yes | 22:49 |
| nixonix | they should have risked and order more novavax, imo | 22:50 |
| de-facto | still imho vaccination should primarily be about protecting the own health, personal benefit | 22:50 |
| nixonix | lot of way more pore investments happen every day | 22:50 |
| nixonix | yeah, yourself and your family first, ofc | 22:51 |
| nixonix | but sometimes you can take one for the team. like participating in trials | 22:51 |
| nixonix | btw, they didnt do those human challence trials in uk, did they? i told you last summer, very unlikely to happen. if placebo group really required, that is | 22:52 |
| LjL | uhm | 22:52 |
| LjL | güd question | 22:53 |
| nixonix | challenge | 22:53 |
| TurboTech | Thoughts? | 22:54 |
| TurboTech | .title https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/fauci-warns-vaccine-resistant-covid-192602345.html | 22:54 |
| Brainstorm | TurboTech: From www.yahoo.com: Fauci Warns New, Vaccine-Resistant Covid Variants “Will Happen” If Enough Americans Don’t Get Vaccinated | 22:54 |
| LjL | they will happen, period | 22:54 |
| specing | meanwhile in africa... | 22:55 |
| LjL | even if everyone in the world is vaccinated, it's now pretty clear the virus still circulates | 22:55 |
| specing | (and India) | 22:55 |
| TurboTech | I can not believe Fauchi said that | 22:55 |
| LjL | yeah but we don't even need to take Africa into account, vaccinated people get Delta plenty. even if it mostly doesn't kill them, it definitely circulates with all the chances in the world to become *more* vaccine-resistant | 22:55 |
| TurboTech | excatly | 22:56 |
| TurboTech | His talk here is irresponsible | 22:56 |
| nixonix | its in deers too, species jumps are excellent for new variants to emerge. also those immunocompromsed, maybe 3% of population, they can hive and spread variants for months | 22:56 |
| de-facto | it becomes more likely with every breakthrough case transmitting to another susceptible, the more often that happens the higher the likelihood of breeding some problematic mutant that optimized fitness even in a population immunized with an ancestor of that antigen | 22:56 |
| LjL | TurboTech, well Fauci wants people to get vaccinated, and his statement is not false, it's just... it's true if they do, and it's true if they don't :P | 22:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Gun Sales in Homes With Teens Rose During Pandemic: New researchers reveals U.S. gun sales increased early in the COVID-19 pandemic, and many of those firearms ended up in homes with teens. → https://is.gd/C7STtC | 22:57 |
| specing | How much is enough, though? | 22:57 |
| nixonix | more vaccine breakthroughs too with non-maturing abs waning, if not boosted... more chances for new variants | 22:58 |
| specing | I remember months ago they were saying we needed 60% for herd immunity, then 70%, now 80%, tomorrow 90%? | 22:58 |
| TurboTech | would you think that the vaccinated will be the ones to create resistant variances? | 22:58 |
| specing | I would | 22:59 |
| de-facto | the key point is continuation of a selected infection chain, if it broke through immunity induced by vaccination or recovery may either not matter or it even could exploit similarities in vaccine induced immunity, imho it would be a good thing to have some variation in the immunity in population in terms of against which antigen the immunity was raised | 22:59 |
| specing | There's no selection pressure against vaccines in unvaccinated people | 22:59 |
| specing | but unvaccinated do provide a better pool for mutations | 23:00 |
| nixonix | high coverage keeps the cases low. breakthroughs with less symptoms (dont say typhoid marys), reduced spreading time, then more lasting immunity perhaps after infection | 23:00 |
| LjL | specing, i'd say at the current point "enough" = "all of them" (and even then it's not enough) | 23:00 |
| LjL | even in the optimistic scenario where vaccines retain 80% efficacy on average, that's below herd immunity levels even if 100% of the population gets it with Delta | 23:01 |
| specing | Hah | 23:01 |
| Arsanerit | How can we increase the vaccination rate?= | 23:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +43211 cases (now 31.8 million), +660 deaths (now 426277) since 23 hours ago | 23:05 |
| LjL | i think the most important thing right now is to quickly deploy Delta-specific vaccines | 23:08 |
| LjL | meanwhile sure, tell people to get vaccinated | 23:08 |
| LjL | the EU has seen more vaccine uptake (relatively speaking, it was going slowly now) after the green pass | 23:08 |
| LjL | so something like the green pass can boost adoption, although i don't necessarily like the idea | 23:08 |
| LjL | (meaning, something like the green pass *being mandatory* for various activities) | 23:09 |
| specing | Arsanerit: make it mandatory like measles/polio/tetanus/child paralysis/you name it | 23:10 |
| LjL | and get full-blown riots | 23:10 |
| Arsanerit | specing: good luck with that | 23:10 |
| de-facto | LjL, well enough vaccinations also could mean that with current level of NPIs to reach permanently R<1 hence prevent incidence to explode and thereby prevent breeding of vaccine resistant mutants in a mostly vaccinated population | 23:11 |
| specing | green pass is just how to make it mandatory without making it mandator | 23:11 |
| LjL | de-facto, we were talking about the US... what NPIs? | 23:11 |
| LjL | and i don't see many NPIs here either | 23:11 |
| de-facto | thats why i said bring it down with NPIs and then vaccinate as fast as possible, synchronized, to help hold it down (with combined NPIs and vaccinations) to prevent breeding | 23:12 |
| de-facto | LjL, those NPIs that prevented reproduction numbers in US from skyrocketing, idk how many are still in place though | 23:14 |
| LjL | i think we see graphs that may or may not have anything to do with restrictions, and the dogma is that it's the restriction that stops waves, even though we've seen enough waves just end on their own for unexplained reasons | 23:15 |
| nixonix | i found something about israels experiences increasing vax popularity, ill link here later, when i find it. but first, that 60% vaccine coverage and lots of infections in population being ideal for new variants... | 23:15 |
| nixonix | "By contrast, a counterintuitive result of our analysis is that the highest risk of resistant strain establishment occurs when a large fraction of the population has already been vaccinated but the transmission is not controlled," the researchers conclude. | 23:15 |
| nixonix | More specifically, in situations where an emergent strain is permitted to spread, its emergence occurs when around 60 percent of those model 10 million citizens have been fully immunized. | 23:16 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.sciencealert.com/freedom-day-from-covid-raises-the-risk-of-a-resistant-covid-strain-emerging | 23:16 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.sciencealert.com: A Resistant SARS-CoV-2 Variant Could Emerge Any Time. Here's What Raises The Risk | 23:16 |
| nixonix | in uk they had around 90% in ab survey, which arent necessarily very accurate, and varies for different sub-populations (while vaccinations make the differencies smaller, since old ppl have higher coverage and young more from infections)... | 23:20 |
| nixonix | so its not a big step for herd immunity to affect, even against indian variant | 23:21 |
| nixonix | in holland, they reinstated some measures. maybe also some high spreader groups went over the threshold during the peak | 23:22 |
| de-facto | didnt they had a music festival in Utrecht (Netherlands) where they had a superspread event with 1000 infections? | 23:23 |
| nixonix | yeah, they had some certificate system, but ppl faked them etc, if i recall | 23:24 |
| de-facto | they tried to implement vaccinated, recogered, tested but obviously could not prevent the spread | 23:24 |
| nixonix | maybe those who werent immunized yet, got it there... | 23:24 |
| de-facto | *recovered | 23:24 |
| de-facto | no i think that concept is flawed, vaccines have breakthrough and tests limited sensitivity, that gives an upper limit to how big a gathering could be | 23:25 |
| de-facto | 20k participants is too much obviously | 23:25 |
| de-facto | but yeah what to expect from a festival called "Verknipt" | 23:26 |
| nixonix | many young ppl dont go to tests when they get symptoms, not to be quarantined. they may stay home during the symptoms, but not 2 weeks. immunity increases, case numbers dont | 23:26 |
| de-facto | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ralnU5UAcDc | 23:27 |
| nixonix | it seems a lot less reinfections than breakthroughs. so they are mostly immunized for awhile | 23:27 |
| de-facto | its right before the start of their super peak | 23:28 |
| de-facto | 2021-07-03-2021-07-04, | 23:29 |
| nixonix | soon there will be rhinovirus hell. they cant test them all, and the close contacts even less | 23:29 |
| de-facto | why rhinovirus hell? | 23:32 |
| de-facto | i dont think i get it every year | 23:32 |
| de-facto | because of the closed schools? | 23:33 |
| Arsanerit | does the upper limit depend on on indoors / outdoors? | 23:33 |
| de-facto | yes i think so | 23:33 |
| de-facto | except the infecitons happen with traveling mostly | 23:33 |
| LjL | i think he means rhinovirus will circulate and it won't be easy to distinguish from COVID to everyone will have to get tested but it'll be impossible | 23:33 |
| nixonix | a bit later than schools started last fall, if i recall even 40k per day, mostly rhinovirus, in population of 5.5M | 23:33 |
| de-facto | oh interesting | 23:34 |
| nixonix | good thing is, it blocks sars2 efficiently | 23:34 |
| nixonix | .title https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/224/1/31/6179975 | 23:35 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From academic.oup.com: Human Rhinovirus Infection Blocks Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Replication Within the Respiratory Epithelium: Implications for COVID-19 Epidemiology | The Journal of Infectious [...] | 23:35 |
| de-facto | ah so you meant rhinovirus hell for sars-cov-2? :D | 23:37 |
| nixonix | our healthcare dont use much lateral flow tests, its just pcr and theres not enough capacity | 23:37 |
| nixonix | they should buy those rapid tests now, when they are cheaper and demand has reduced | 23:38 |
| nixonix | bars are to be closed earlier, starting in a week, at high prevalence areas. big help, 1 AM -> 11 PM | 23:39 |
| de-facto | yeah rapid tests are helpful (according to some models in begin of 2021 around 42% reduction in reproduction in Germany), but PCR are much more sensitive (from 5 PCR positive only ~2 are rapid antigen positive at the same time) | 23:41 |
| nixonix | vax certificates or negative test results for bar and event access are currenly considered, but requires law changes and might be ready in october. just after all the kids have been infected | 23:41 |
| nixonix | i dont think rapid tests should be used much if case numbers are not that high that not enough pcr capacity, because - not unlike with bad masks - people and society replace efficient methods with weak methods, when they shouldnt | 23:43 |
| de-facto | what if i got fully vaccinated 6 months ago, have my vax cert and an asymptomatic delta breakthrough with roughly same viral shedding as someone never took a vaccine? | 23:43 |
| nixonix | us cdc thinks the same about them | 23:43 |
| nixonix | but the situation is different with rhino epidemic. or enterovirus etc | 23:43 |
| de-facto | then allowed into bar and cause a superspread, just because their policy was "vaccinated OR tested" instead of test everyone | 23:43 |
| himesama | wish we had 2 virologists, 2 public health whatevers, and 2 epidemiologists here | 23:44 |
| nixonix | i think those vax certificates are usually just for 6 months after 2nd dose | 23:44 |
| de-facto | rapid tests help with finding cases that normally would not get tested, then confirm them with PCR | 23:44 |
| nixonix | currently | 23:44 |
| de-facto | but they are not sensitive enough to really find infections, e.g. when someone goes to hospital (for something else than COVID) and they wnat to exclude recent infection with a sensitive test | 23:45 |
| de-facto | probably should do two PCR roughly one incubation time apart | 23:45 |
| nixonix | those soccer hooligans in quarantine (just for being exposed - different rules and also term for those with found infection), were told to get tested again after a few days | 23:49 |
| nixonix | they reduced that type of quarantine time from 14 days to 10 days. or recommended it to hc areas, not sure if they are implemented yet and everywhere | 23:50 |
| nixonix | always pcr tests | 23:50 |
| de-facto | yeah because tests will be negative if contamination happened just very short time before sample was taken | 23:50 |
| de-facto | even PCR | 23:50 |
| de-facto | so catching with first PCR those that were exposed some time ago and with second PCR the very recently exposed | 23:51 |
| nixonix | home made rapid tests cost, was it 30 for 5-pack, and even more when bought from pharmacy. so idk if many ppl buy them. just like they dont buy FFP2 masks because they are a bit more expensive (and more uncomfortable) | 23:52 |
| de-facto | btw thats also a problem with testing travelers, what if they just got exposed during flight? they will test negative, but soon begin to replicate and shed after | 23:53 |
| de-facto | thats when they are allowed into freely moving around in their arrival community | 23:53 |
| de-facto | and they even will not be careful because they think "oh i tested negative, i am safe" wich of course is a wrong assumption | 23:54 |
| nixonix | they will only catch those that got infected around 2-10 days earlier or so. some of them, because it can be shorter, pcr positive time | 23:54 |
| de-facto | well with delta it could be even quicker | 23:54 |
| nixonix | so they should all be ordered to quarantine, breaking punishable with fine, that could be interrupted earlier than 10-14 days with negative test result | 23:55 |
| de-facto | yes | 23:55 |
| nixonix | yeah it can be around 24-30 h i think | 23:55 |
| de-facto | controlled quarantine | 23:55 |
| de-facto | but it wont be implemented, because if it would be 14d+14d quarantine for just traveling somewhere it would be more time than most people got holidays per year | 23:57 |
| de-facto | people would not like that, hence the spread of variants will continue | 23:58 |
| nixonix | our current hybrid strategy is, most of govt on holiday for the june so dont have to do anything, then fake that they are suppressing it by reinstating earlier bar closure times around time when shools have started already, while actually having chosen to let it rip now that old ppl have got 2 doses | 23:59 |
Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!