| LjL | urgh, not fully confirmed yet because news media are confused, but seems the "standard" green pass will be needed even for local/urban transport (buses trams metro) | 00:05 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | i'm not a huge fan of that | 00:06 |
| LjL | i've literally not taken mass transport since the start of the pandemic with like one exception | 00:06 |
| LjL | but if we have to go this far, just mandate the vaccine, for everyone, period | 00:06 |
| LjL | 1) the green pass won't *actually* get checked on buses, trams and metro, because it's impossible | 00:06 |
| LjL | 2) but it *can* be, so i have to travel with this silly QR as an award for getting the vaccine (but people who *haven't* got the vaccine can get this type of green pass too!) | 00:07 |
| LjL | not a fan. not. | 00:07 |
| squirrel | how come impossible | 00:38 |
| squirrel | so anyways i went with that data to the antivax person in question and she says she can't trust this data | 00:45 |
| squirrel | as she doesn't trust the source | 00:45 |
| dTal | in my experience it's seldom worth the time to convince such people with evidence and logic. Evidence and logic is not the reason for their beliefs. | 00:59 |
| dTal | You could send your friend 500 peer reviewed studies and the one response you will *never* get is "gosh that is a compelling preponderance of evidence, in light of which I need to reevaluate some aspects of my worldview; thank you for bringing this to my attention" | 01:03 |
| squirrel | she kind of asked for this kind of data | 01:04 |
| squirrel | but now it turns out there isn't a source she would trust | 01:04 |
| squirrel | so yeah | 01:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +2363 cases (now 1.8 million), +18 deaths (now 29626) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +23764 cases (now 2.6 million), +51 deaths (now 19546) since 21 hours ago | 01:37 |
| LjL | <squirrel> how come impossible ← it's just not realistic to check everybody who boards buses and trams (perhaps the metro, maybe). so they will be spot-checks at best. which means, as a vaccinated person, i gratuitously need to make sure i'm carrying my green pass or else i can get fined... but i probably won't, which means people who haven't got the vaccine will likely just keep traveling and cough in my face. or, they can get a "test-based" green pass sinc | 02:23 |
| LjL | e the new "vaccine-required" green pass doesn't extend to *this* usage. | 02:23 |
| LjL | oh they're gone also | 02:24 |
| LjL | %tell squirrel the thing with anti-vax people and others like that that are not simply a bit "skeptical" or "worried", but adamant about it, every bar you manage to pass they'll put a higher bar. no data are reliable. | 02:24 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass squirrel your message when they are around. | 02:24 |
| LjL | %tell squirrel: also as to why "impossible" to enforce green pass on buses and trams... the way they're operated here, it's just not feasible to check everyone's pass. so only spot checks. but that means 1) as a vaccinated person, i can (though likely won't) get fined for forgetting my green pass, but 2) unvaccinated people will be able to travel scot-free most of the time, "at worst" if they want to have a valid pass they can still just get a rapid test | 02:26 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass squirrel your message when they are around. | 02:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +79047 cases (now 5.6 million) since 17 hours ago — Belgium: +23350 cases (now 1.7 million), +38 deaths (now 26743), +143943 tests (now 24.0 million) since a day ago — India: +3533 cases (now 34.5 million), +396 deaths (now 466980), +2435524 tests (now 635.9 million) since 7 hours ago — United Kingdom: +42754 cases (now 10.0 million) since 18 hours ago | 05:46 |
| LjL | +79k? i hope it's the bot having flukes again | 06:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Saxony, Germany: +11581 cases (now 451386), +42 deaths (now 10765) since a day ago — Noord-Brabant, Netherlands: +4129 cases (now 385430), +6 deaths (now 3290) since a day ago — Brandenburg, Germany: +3813 cases (now 164885), +6 deaths (now 4058) since a day ago — Thuringen, Germany: +3596 cases (now 197015), +31 deaths (now 4878) since a day ago | 06:42 |
| sdfgsdfg | in australia vax passports are checked... They just look at it | 08:59 |
| sdfgsdfg | but if you think you can fake your way in with a modified JPEG of the certificate, some bouncers tap on your screen and you stand there like a dickhed trying to think of an excuse or to run away awkwardly | 08:59 |
| sdfgsdfg | they do make sure you're showing the app's screen. And every state has their own version of the app. Services VIC, Services NSW etc | 09:01 |
| sdfgsdfg | one of them wanted to hire me for the mobile lead.. lol | 09:02 |
| joerg | safevac-2 app has no way to monitor reactions on a 3rd aka booster shot. LAAAAME | 09:19 |
| joerg | https://www.pei.de/DE/service/faq/coronavirus/faq-coronavirus-safevac-app-tabelle.html | 09:20 |
| joerg | losers | 09:20 |
| SpearRaven | Japans case numbers PLUMMET after the extremely safe drug Ivermectin is ALLOWED to be used | 09:23 |
| SpearRaven | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1GF0H9V_1g | 09:23 |
| joerg | maybe because nobody who decided taking ivermectin will go to any officially monitored test any more? | 09:24 |
| SpearRaven | true, they may feel GREAT and not need to | 09:25 |
| joerg | I for sure wouldn't, to not suffer the sneer "that's what you got for taking Ivermectin" | 09:26 |
| joerg | I am pretty sure Ivermectin been evaluated in several double blind studies and found to be ineffective | 09:27 |
| SpearRaven | stats can be spinned anyway you want. truth is in the pudding | 09:28 |
| SpearRaven | and the pudding has Ivermectin in it | 09:29 |
| undefined_bob | SpearRaven: thats bullshit | 09:30 |
| undefined_bob | shut the fuck up with that fakenews bullshit in here please | 09:31 |
| SpearRaven | it's all about money so thats why no properly funded trial will be done for Ivermectin. They just 'invent' a MUCH more expensive drug that has has the same method of operandum | 09:31 |
| undefined_bob | nope, its not. you are just plain worng | 09:32 |
| SpearRaven | you dont know your wrong bob so i'll just ignore you. your pissed because i didn't give you a beer last time | 09:32 |
| undefined_bob | I would stop arguing against your dis- and misinformation bullshit | 09:33 |
| SpearRaven | anyway, anyone with half a brain can look into it more themselves | 09:33 |
| SpearRaven | haha whatever | 09:33 |
| undefined_bob | no, thats just not true | 09:33 |
| undefined_bob | you are spreading fakenews | 09:33 |
| SpearRaven | pretend that water with a pinch of pepper had the same effect as Ivermectin. Even though it's safe, there would be people either fooled or those with a financial interest pushing back against it | 09:36 |
| SpearRaven | if you don't believe in evil, you live in a fairyland | 09:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +79051 cases (now 5.6 million) since 21 hours ago | 09:42 |
| SpearRaven | there are three levels of evil: low - crimes committed to survive like stealing food. -- medium - crimes committed to satisfy mental urges. -- high - crimes committed for financial gain no matter if it results in death and or suffering | 09:49 |
| undefined_bob | "Ivermectin is not listed by the Japanese government as an approved medicine to treat the coronavirus, according to the Japan Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agencys list of medical products approved for COVID-19." | 09:50 |
| joerg | >>it's all about money so thats why no properly funded trial will be done for Ivermectin. They just 'invent' a MUCH more expensive drug that has has the same method of operandum<< that's bullshit and has been proven wrong by folks that are not suspect to act in industry's interest | 09:50 |
| undefined_bob | "An article published this week by a conservative radio host recirculated a months old false claim that Japan has halted the use of coronavirus vaccines in favor of using the parasite drug ivermectin, and that the switch has led to the eradication of coronavirus cases." | 09:50 |
| undefined_bob | a 'conservative radio host' spread fakenews and you fall for it, SpearRaven lol | 09:51 |
| SpearRaven | never said that bob | 09:51 |
| undefined_bob | its jsut fakenews and you are spreading it | 09:51 |
| SpearRaven | im not against vaccine. as we all know, there are still a lot of cases in highly vaccinated countries | 09:51 |
| * joerg waits for chanops to take appropriate action | 09:52 | |
| SpearRaven | anyway, even if it was 'fake news', Ivermectin taken in the HUMAN dose and period is very safe. So the worst that can happen would be a placebo. You are reacting as though you have a financial interest | 09:54 |
| joerg | stop that trolling! | 09:55 |
| SpearRaven | dangerous fake news -- i could understand the HEAVY pushback | 09:55 |
| SpearRaven | like recommending to drink ACID | 09:55 |
| SpearRaven | hahaha | 09:55 |
| undefined_bob | just shut the fuck up | 09:55 |
| SpearRaven | your an asshole | 09:55 |
| joerg | this IS highly dangerous bullshit, it causes FUD in people | 09:55 |
| SpearRaven | there is NOTHING dangerous about a HUMAN dose of Ivermectin. It has been given BILLIONS of times | 09:56 |
| SpearRaven | anyway, i'm through communicating to a'holes | 09:56 |
| undefined_bob | dont feed the troll | 09:56 |
| SpearRaven | indeed | 09:57 |
| joerg | and congrats, insults will earn you what you deserve: + - and I really hope for that very soon | 09:57 |
| SpearRaven | in your mind, you get | 09:57 |
| joerg | +Q | 09:57 |
| joerg | it's so pathetic when people believe and spread absolute fake nonsense since they are either too dumb or too anxious to accept and cope with the truth | 10:00 |
| SpearRaven | throw me out of a 12th story window then you third level criminal you | 10:23 |
| dTal | is it just me or is there sexual tension in here | 10:32 |
| undefined_bob | dTal: its just you because you are sexy as fuck :3 | 10:33 |
| dTal | d'awww | 10:34 |
| undefined_bob | thanks | 10:34 |
| undefined_bob | why only q and not b? | 10:35 |
| dTal | they usually leave by themselves after a q | 10:35 |
| undefined_bob | ah lol | 10:35 |
| undefined_bob | okay thats nice too | 10:35 |
| dTal | I'm so rubbish with those banmasks anyway | 10:35 |
| undefined_bob | they are annoying, I often struggle with them too | 10:36 |
| dTal | For what it's worth - Ivermectin *is* largely harmless, and it *does* help with covid | 10:37 |
| dTal | ...if you live in India, and are riddled with parasitic worms | 10:37 |
| dTal | it should not, in hindsight, be surprising that treating a latent parasitic infestation improves covid outcomes | 10:39 |
| undefined_bob | well, the studies showed that the dose requierd to to something against sars-cov-2 in culture cells in lab was so high, that it will be very harmful for humans if taken at the same concentration. Its like saying if you inject enough hand sanitizer it well help against covid too | 10:39 |
| undefined_bob | ah yes, I have read about those cases in india | 10:39 |
| dTal | the idea that covid cases "PLUMMETED" in a country like Japan because of ivermectin is just silly | 10:40 |
| undefined_bob | and its proven fake news | 10:40 |
| joerg | dTal: thanks, all fine with your masks | 10:50 |
| joerg | also the assumption any new covid drug was same operation principle like ivermectin seems wrong | 10:52 |
| joerg | I'm quite sure I seen a Derek Lowe or similar article debunking exactly that, lately linked in here | 10:52 |
| dTal | main SpearRaven offended with their atrocious spelling and grammar | 10:57 |
| dTal | *mainly | 10:57 |
| dTal | and liberal use of ALL CAPS | 10:57 |
| joerg | since it seems the bot didn't find any news about it: EMA approves vaccine for 5-12yo children | 10:58 |
| joerg | TV news, didn't search for links so far | 10:58 |
| dTal | the phrase "method of operandum" is bannable all by itself | 10:59 |
| joerg | Paxlovid expected to come in January :-/ | 10:59 |
| dTal | does anyone here still expect to never get covid? | 11:00 |
| joerg | o/ | 11:00 |
| dTal | *\o | 11:01 |
| joerg | well, never say never, but... | 11:01 |
| dTal | oh you weren't high fiving | 11:01 |
| * joerg high5s dTal | 11:01 | |
| dTal | eyy. It's so hard to judge risk when the consequence is so stochastic | 11:02 |
| joerg | I honestly hope I won't catch covid for at least next 12 months | 11:02 |
| undefined_bob | never? I dont know. but I still do everything to avoid getting it | 11:02 |
| dTal | Like, I still wear a respirator when I nip into a shop for 5 minutes, but I've also started taking gymnastics classes in rooms with a dozen other people | 11:03 |
| dTal | is that rational? at all? | 11:03 |
| undefined_bob | no its not but its human | 11:03 |
| joerg | booster shot gave me nasty headache, chills and fever(?). Recovering now thanks to 800mg Ibuprofen and some harder analgetica | 11:03 |
| dTal | joerg: I'd steer clear of ibuprofen, it's an anti inflammatory and immune suppressant | 11:04 |
| joerg | dTal: sounds like... the way you found to cope with it | 11:04 |
| dTal | there's no point getting a booster jab and then telling your immune system not to worry about it | 11:05 |
| undefined_bob | I still only do the bare minimum I have to do. I h ave to go to the office two days per week. Most dangerous thing I do. Other than that I only go to the supermarket or doctors if I have to. I always wear high quality N95 masks and an other special mask in the office | 11:05 |
| undefined_bob | I try all I can to avoid getting it but I'm aware I still can catch it | 11:05 |
| joerg | dTal: well, I obviously had enough infallmation aka immune response :-) Doc told me yesterday » no sprots, no alc for two days. If you feel annoying side effects, Ibu and Paracetamol are allowed, and just stay in bed" | 11:06 |
| dTal | I justify doing something as dangerous as a gymnastics class because the cumulative effects of nearly two years of almost complete social isolation and physical inactivity were approaching the expected negative effects of long covid | 11:07 |
| joerg | inflammatory* | 11:07 |
| undefined_bob | like yesterday, a workmate, sneezing and coughting, telling an other one 'uhh I feel like last year when I had covid again. I made an appointment for a test in a few hours. But until then I'll work'. Protecting against the stupidity of other humans is the hardest | 11:07 |
| dTal | oh undefined_bob that's so frustrating | 11:07 |
| dTal | I'd have gone off on them | 11:07 |
| undefined_bob | I think its really hard to avoid all possible dangerous situations. In the end we are humans with human needs and feelings and so on | 11:09 |
| undefined_bob | but I think others are far more likely to catch it than I am. Because I am just more carefully and avoid humans as much as possible. I'm more worried about my parents for example | 11:10 |
| summonner | undefined_bob, do you have cats or dogs? | 11:11 |
| joerg | it's obvious the damn virus won't vanish ever again, so either you get immunity from vaccination or from infection. And then it's a question how long that immunity will last until you repeat the whole process | 11:11 |
| undefined_bob | dTal: wouldn't an online gym class do the same for you? | 11:11 |
| undefined_bob | summonner: sadly no. But I have lots of plants I take care of :D | 11:12 |
| dTal | undefined_bob: well it's specifically an aerial silk class, so no :p | 11:12 |
| undefined_bob | I dont meet friends, go shopping or eat out in restaurants for example | 11:12 |
| dTal | I guess probably I could extract some benefit from someone on a zoom call telling me what to do. But not anywhere close to the same benefit. | 11:13 |
| undefined_bob | aw aerial silk sounds so nice | 11:13 |
| summonner | joerg, if the illness gets into your memory cells, you'll have that immunity. short-term antibody response is necessary for mutating viruses, but doesn't necessarily transfer into B-cell memory | 11:13 |
| undefined_bob | dTal: I think if they have good ventilation in the gym and give each one some space, it could be a manageable risk | 11:14 |
| summonner | undefined_bob, sounds like you have real concerns. Have you done an antibody test? Perhaps you were part of the 80% asymptomatic whom caught covid and didn't realize it. if you come back negative for an antibody response, then continue your precautions | 11:16 |
| undefined_bob | summonner: I dont know, I got 2 pfizer shots and will get my third one jan/feb next year | 11:17 |
| undefined_bob | i was also very hygiene conscious before the pandemic and covid did not make it any better | 11:19 |
| joerg | I was like "don't get so close to me" since age of 12, came in handy when firts wave just started in Madrid while I was on holiday there, only learning about what I been in after I returned | 11:26 |
| joerg | first* | 11:26 |
| undefined_bob | did you go to Madrid with your wife? | 11:30 |
| joerg | with a friend | 11:31 |
| undefined_bob | oh nice | 11:32 |
| undefined_bob | I dont have real friends beside my plants | 11:32 |
| joerg | he was very grateful I refused to walk crowded streets and rather take a detour via not so crowded streets, when we had a walk together | 11:33 |
| undefined_bob | sounds kind | 11:33 |
| joerg | only he was grateful after we were back in our home towns and the TV news reported about the mess in Madrid | 11:33 |
| undefined_bob | yeah it was bad there. Now its bad here :( | 11:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +42878 cases (now 10.0 million) since 18 hours ago | 11:34 |
| joerg | germany cracks 100 000 fatalities, 75 000 new cases per day | 11:39 |
| summonner | undefined_bob, if you can, get a look at the vial when they jab you, even though they note the batch number in your report, having a note of the vial number can be important | 11:41 |
| joerg | fatality rate of ~2% of infections | 11:41 |
| joerg | well, of _reported_ infections | 11:43 |
| joerg | https://corona.rki.de/ | 11:44 |
| undefined_bob | summonner: at my last two shots the syringes were already drew up when I came in | 11:55 |
| undefined_bob | but yeah I guess I could try to ask for the vial but I think its difficult because they get more than one shot out of one vial and they have to delute it too | 11:56 |
| joerg | and they will have discarded the vial before you even see that syringe, even if they'd be willing to, they couldn't tell which vial in trashbin was yours | 11:58 |
| joerg | in vax center the workflow is: dilute, carefully mix, draft 6 syringes and discard the vial, deploy the syringes to the vaccination stations | 12:00 |
| joerg | why would you want to see the vial? | 12:01 |
| joerg | if I'd be interested in something then that's the actual dilution and mixing process, I seen real jackasses pretending they mix, by moving the vial in horizontal circles around a virtual vertical axis. Mere linear translation, no tilting or rotating of any kind | 12:03 |
| undefined_bob | joerg: I think, maybe he is refering to the cases where they only put saline solution in the syringes | 12:06 |
| joerg | the canonical way of mixing BNT vials is to gently and slowly turning them upside-down and back upright a 10 times | 12:06 |
| joerg | undefined_bob: yeah | 12:06 |
| dTal | 10 times seems like ridiculous overkill | 12:09 |
| dTal | put a drop of food coloring in a vial and invert it 3 times and I'll buy you beer if it's the slightest bit inhomogenous | 12:09 |
| undefined_bob | I would like a beer now too :O | 12:19 |
| joerg | dTal: depends on viscosity of both fluids to mix | 12:28 |
| joerg | and actually I already mused why they don't indeed add a drop of food color so you could _see_ what's going on | 12:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +281 cases (now 820285), +3 deaths (now 11516), +7104 tests (now 4.6 million) since 22 hours ago | 12:30 |
| joerg | 24h since booster jab, feeling like... "I wish I was so tired I could go to sleep" | 12:34 |
| MerlinMp[m] | <joerg> "it's obvious the damn virus won..." <- joerg: based on regulations you will have to either booster yourself every 6 months or got infected every 6 months. Both seem impractical. Immunity is not relevant to get certificate | 13:10 |
| joerg | maybe it's booster reactions, I can't follow. Nobody knows how long immunity lasts after completing what scientists consider a three-jab regimen for now | 13:17 |
| joerg | it's far more likely that a real booster after completing initial 3 jabs will be needed no sooner than 12 months after completion | 13:18 |
| joerg | also I don't see how that statement is contradicting my >><joerg> it's obvious the damn virus won't vanish ever again, so either you get immunity from vaccination or from infection. And then it's a question how long that immunity will last until you repeat the whole process « | 13:20 |
| joerg | certs didn't come in there at all | 13:22 |
| de-facto | i assume with each re-exposure to the antigen the portion of long lasting memory b-cells increases | 13:24 |
| joerg | :nod: | 13:25 |
| joerg | tchnically my booster cert expires 2022-11-24 and I don't expect to need another jab any much sooner than that | 13:26 |
| joerg | if only because in summer, the infection pressure has proven to be low | 13:27 |
| joerg | GOSH, how I wish I may have a grog or two now, to go to sleep after sipping them | 13:29 |
| joerg | damn flu-like bones-ache and chills despite no fever at all, sucks | 13:32 |
| de-facto | well we do not know that yet | 13:42 |
| de-facto | yeah joerg maybe you feel those immune cells getting active, i guess that is a good sign, meaning your immune system activates (as it is supposed to) due to the re-exposure to the antigen blooming from cells that were vaccinated | 13:44 |
| de-facto | what i meant is that we do not know the time evolution after the booster shots, we simply did not acquire enough data to estimate waning rates of the immunity (so that we could compare half life to primary series) | 13:45 |
| de-facto | we may hope it will induce longer lasting immunity that also has broader variety for its affinity to the antigen (e.g. also cover more variants) but still we need the data for that | 13:46 |
| de-facto | i guess we will see papers about it soon | 13:46 |
| de-facto | yet i wish i also could get booster already | 13:46 |
| undefined_bob | I have to wait until jan/feb next year | 13:47 |
| de-facto[m] | Same | 13:47 |
| joerg | de-facto[m]: of course. Just I hoped for 3rd stab being more smooth | 13:53 |
| joerg | re waning of immunity it's most likely safe to assume it will be _at_least_ as long as after 2nd | 13:55 |
| joerg | frpom other similar vaccinations we learned there will be a massively increased immunity level and duration after 3rd jab | 13:55 |
| joerg | here for level, I heard sth like "20-fold that of the level 2 weeks after 2nd jab" | 13:56 |
| joerg | which is a friggin lot | 13:57 |
| de-facto | yeah probably | 14:01 |
| de-facto | and also the reaction will be due to more matured immune cells, those that already knew about the antigen half a year ago | 14:01 |
| joerg | :-) | 14:30 |
| * joerg quotes Zappa » I still don't feel as good as I felt this mornin'... yeah yeah... « | 14:32 | |
| joerg | [FZ:] You'll grow out of it... [Jeff:] DUMMY UP! | 14:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +3564 cases (now 974317) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +79366 cases (now 5.6 million) since 23 hours ago | 14:35 |
| joerg | [Napoleon:] You mean if I smoke that It's the same as if... As if I was at college? Roll it over up! Roll it over up! Roll it over up! Gimme a... | 14:35 |
| joerg | [FZ:] A true Zen saying: Nothing is what I want... The results of a higher education! | 14:36 |
| joerg | https://youtu.be/FmX3MGX9RYU | 14:40 |
| ZdrytchX_ | .cases australia | 14:48 |
| Brainstorm | ZdrytchX_: Australia has had 203646 confirmed cases (0.8% of all people) and 1978 deaths (1.0% of cases) as of 5 hours ago. 47.2 million tests were done (0.4% positive). 19.9 million were vaccinated (77.5%). +6 cases since 8 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia&legacy=no | 14:48 |
| Brainstorm | ZdrytchX_: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Australia, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it. | 14:48 |
| lastshell | joerg I got the booster last monday only arm pain after 12 hrs and right now very few arm pain nothing like the first 2 shoots | 15:14 |
| joerg | yeah, my immune system is "special" -always been since the dioxin poisoning when I was 14 | 16:00 |
| joerg | very active but doesn't know against what | 16:01 |
| joerg | a flu takes 4 days until accute symptoms vanish, but then I suffer a 3 months of fatigue etc | 16:03 |
| joerg | often with recurring flu symptoms every other week for a day | 16:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +4484 cases (now 978801) since 2 hours ago — United Kingdom: +42921 cases (now 10.0 million) since 23 hours ago | 16:45 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +22242 cases (now 2.6 million), +61 deaths (now 19606) since 18 hours ago — Italy: +13756 cases (now 5.0 million), +71 deaths (now 133486), +649998 tests (now 116.7 million) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +2762 cases (now 1.8 million), +23 deaths (now 29638) since 23 hours ago | 17:35 |
| Guest23 | anyone here | 18:34 |
| LjL | Guest23, i'd assume so | 18:35 |
| joerg | wow | 18:44 |
| joerg | aha, 36.2 to 37.7 | 18:46 |
| joerg | 31h after jab | 18:47 |
| LjL | that's high enough i would feel crappy | 18:49 |
| joerg | well, same here | 18:51 |
| joerg | though I felt harder chill with 36.2 than now | 18:52 |
| LjL | usually you feel chills while fever is going up | 18:53 |
| joerg | mayve a rhird IBU, they reduce fever but fever is not needed to make the immune system work, it just helps with killing real pathogenes which we don't have in baccination | 18:54 |
| joerg | LjL: oh, thanks for this info. I'm a washout with such everyday wisdom | 18:55 |
| LjL | i tend to use paracetamol over ibuprofen | 18:55 |
| joerg | I feellike it's garder to my stomach | 18:55 |
| joerg | harder* | 18:56 |
| LjL | my understanding it's harder on the liver, but only if used continuously or in high doses, but easier on the stomach | 18:56 |
| LjL | weird, should be the reverse | 18:56 |
| LjL | but everyone is different | 18:56 |
| joerg | yeah. liver too. Take high doses Paracetamol and drink some alcohol and you may literally spit out your liver diced | 18:57 |
| joerg | I got me ibu-lysin which is friggin expensive but really better than plain ibu | 18:57 |
| LjL | i've read one paper that says it would be a good idea to combine paracetamol with NAC, for liver protection. so i take NAC before taking paracetamol now | 18:57 |
| * joerg idly muses if taking some NAC might be a good idea anyway. Got enough of that stuff here | 18:58 | |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +237 cases (now 1.6 million), +9 deaths (now 27970), +18888 tests (now 10.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 19:02 |
| LjL | are we abreast of this? https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/covid-super-variant-mutations-cases-found-south-africa-botswana-hong-kong-1316864 https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/south-africa-new-covid-super-variant-cases-global-total-1319011 | 19:28 |
| LjL | variant with 32 mutations as opposed to the 16 in Delta (going by what the article says) | 19:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +46975 cases (now 10.1 million), +147 deaths (now 144875) since 13 hours ago — Canada: +2704 cases (now 1.8 million), +22 deaths (now 29639) since 23 hours ago | 19:39 |
| LjL | %title https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/25/who-calls-special-meeting-to-discuss-new-covid-variant-from-south-africa-with-large-number-of-mutations.html | 19:58 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.cnbc.com: WHO calls special meeting to discuss new Covid variant from South Africa with 'large number of mutations' | 19:58 |
| LjL | "The B.1.1.529 variant contains multiple mutations associated with increased antibody resistance, which may reduce the effectiveness of vaccines, along with mutations that generally make it more contagious, according to slides he presented at the briefing." | 19:59 |
| LjL | and it's in South Africa, Botswana, but also one case in Hong Kong already | 20:00 |
| finely[m] | https://slate.com/business/2011/03/drug-company-r-d-nowhere-near-1-billion.html | 20:27 |
| LjL | anyone know what's the flu situation in Europe? i know there are some sites but what i've found is not *so* easy to parse. they said on italian TV yesterday that we're already double the 2019 circulation at this time | 20:39 |
| LjL | https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/flunews#epi only has 2020-2021 :\ | 20:41 |
| ecks | sweden https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/420a86dcc39a41629f94c35b1a6a9630/figur1_antal_fall_per_vecka_influensa.png | 20:44 |
| ecks | only up to nov 7 though | 20:44 |
| de-facto | Germany https://influenza.rki.de/ | 20:46 |
| de-facto | %tr <de Im Nationalen Referenzzentrum (NRZ) für Influenzaviren wurden in der 46. KW 2021 in insgesamt 112 (61 %) der 185 eingesandten Sentinelproben respiratorische Viren identifiziert, darunter 44 (24 %) Proben mit Respiratorischen Synzytialviren (RSV), 31 (17 %) mit humanen saisonalen Coronaviren (hCoV) des Typs OC43 bzw. 229E, 28 (15 %) mit Rhinoviren, zwölf (6 %) mit SARS-CoV-2, neun (5 %) mit Parainfluenzaviren (PIV) und drei (2 %) mi | 20:46 |
| de-facto | t humanen Metapneumoviren (hMPV). In der 46. KW wurden in einer Probe (0,5 %) Influenza A(H3N2)-Viren detektiert. | 20:46 |
| de-facto | oops | 20:46 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: In the National Reference Center (NRZ) for influenza viruses, respiratory viruses were identified in a total of 112 (61%) of the 185 sentinel samples sent in in week 46, 2021, including 44 (24%) samples with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), 31 (17%) with human seasonal coronaviruses (hCoV) of the type OC43 or 229E, 28 (15%) with rhinoviruses, [... want %more?] | 20:46 |
| de-facto | "In the National Reference Center (NRZ) for influenza viruses, respiratory viruses were identified in a total of 112 (61%) of the 185 sentinel samples sent in in week 46, 2021, including 44 (24%) samples with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), 31 (17%) with human seasonal coronaviruses (hCoV) of the type OC43 or 229E, 28 (15%) with rhinoviruses, twelve (6%) with SARS-CoV-2, nine (5%) with parainfluenza viruses (PIV) and three (2%) with human | 20:46 |
| de-facto | metapneumoviruses (hMPV)." | 20:46 |
| de-facto | "In week 46, influenza A (H3N2) viruses were detected in a sample (0.5%)." | 20:47 |
| LjL | well the PDF at https://w3.iss.it/site/rmi/influnet/pagine/rapportoInflunet.aspx doesn't look good, at all | 20:47 |
| LjL | this doesn't measure flu per se, but just all "flu-like disease" reports | 20:47 |
| LjL | so maybe flu itself is very low | 20:48 |
| LjL | but it looks like it's never been this bad since 2004, except for the 2009 swine flu pandemic | 20:48 |
| de-facto | https://influenza.rki.de/Diagrams.aspx?agiRegion=0 | 20:48 |
| LjL | as to actual sequencing | 20:49 |
| LjL | %tr <it >en Durante la settimana 46/2021 sono stati segnalati, attraverso il portale InfluNet, 280 | 20:49 |
| LjL | campioni clinici ricevuti dai diversi laboratori afferenti alla rete InfluNet e, tra i 259 | 20:49 |
| LjL | analizzati, 5 (2%) sono risultati positivi per influenza, 4 di tipo A (2 di sottotipo | 20:49 |
| LjL | H3N2 e 2 di sottotipo H1N1pdm09) ed uno di tipo B. Nell’ambito dei suddetti | 20:49 |
| LjL | campioni analizzati, 10 sono risultati positivi al SARS-CoV-2. | 20:49 |
| LjL | oops² | 20:49 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Italian to English: During the week 46/2021, 280 were reported through the InfluNet portal (MyMemory, Google) | 20:49 |
| de-facto | so it looks like "as usual" since it seems to be too early to tell, in those diagrams the curves for 19/20 and 20/21 begin to deviate in early jan | 20:49 |
| LjL | de-facto, but i think it's sort of reasonable to assume that if "flu-like disease" in general is spiking a lot, it means there are the right conditions for wider circulation than in 2020 | 20:50 |
| LjL | i guess in germany it's just not as bad as in italy based on that graph | 20:50 |
| LjL | or they define them differently | 20:50 |
| de-facto | yeah it indicates that people do not distance as the transmission paths for respiratory pathogens seem to be openly available for spread | 20:51 |
| LjL | but it's also much higher for 0-4 year old children, which is the same as in italy | 20:51 |
| de-facto | no wonder COVID is spiking like crazy | 20:51 |
| LjL | i think i'll get a vaccine. i've never had a flu vaccine before so i'm sort of apprehensive, but | 20:51 |
| de-facto | btw it looks like its mostly childern for now | 20:52 |
| de-facto | does the vaccine contain A(H3N2) this season? | 20:52 |
| de-facto | usually they do trivalent or even tetravalent ones | 20:52 |
| aradesh | i had a flu vaccine once, work were giving them out freely | 20:53 |
| de-facto | it looks like Influenza mainly is detected in young, prevalence peaks at age 10 | 20:54 |
| de-facto | goes to a minimum at ~25 and has a small broad blob with median at ~40 or such | 20:55 |
| de-facto | Seasonality seems to peak at week 6-8 each year in countries like Sweden or Germany | 21:06 |
| de-facto | for Influenza | 21:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +8245 cases (now 7.6 million), +72 deaths (now 119758) since 22 hours ago | 21:31 |
| joerg | LjL: wrf?? https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/25/who-calls-special-meeting-to-discuss-new-covid-variant-from-south-africa-with-large-number-of-mutations.html | 21:59 |
| joerg | :-O | 21:59 |
| LjL | joerg, yeah it's full of articles about this variant | 22:00 |
| LjL | it's early to say anything i guess, but if the WHO is holding a meeting... | 22:00 |
| LjL | i dunno, i'm kind of concerned | 22:00 |
| LjL | we knew it would happen at some point anyway | 22:01 |
| LjL | i don't know why we aren't vaccinating people with variant specific vaccines already. it *is* going to be another tragedy when it escapes. | 22:01 |
| * archpc peeks in | 22:01 | |
| joerg | https://twitter.com/buckelf/status/1463958899132977162 | 22:03 |
| joerg | LjL: ^^^ | 22:03 |
| LjL | archpc, hey long time | 22:03 |
| * joerg starts feeling a tad desperate | 22:04 | |
| joerg | "awful spike profile" | 22:04 |
| LjL | ah, i hadn't seen the growth yet, as outbreak.info doesn't seem to have it | 22:05 |
| LjL | that looks about as bad as i suspected, meaning, pretty bad | 22:05 |
| joerg | what did BNT tell? 6 weeks plus production? GO!!! | 22:05 |
| joerg | 3h ago I felt happy to have my booster and thought I won't need another jab before 11 months from now, now I wish for an adapted mRNA ASAP | 22:07 |
| joerg | FFS | 22:08 |
| joerg | when there's ever been a situation that justifies closing borders then it's this here | 22:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +9258 cases (now 5.1 million), +27 deaths (now 87931) since a day ago | 22:09 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w | 22:10 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: Heavily mutated coronavirus variant puts scientists on alert | 22:10 |
| ecks | will this variant require a 125% vaccine coverage to suppress | 22:10 |
| de-facto | "B.1.1.529" | 22:11 |
| de-facto | hopefully we would not see a large increase in mutations once EIDD-2801 becomes widely available and used | 22:15 |
| de-facto | i have to say i am a bit concerned about this | 22:15 |
| joerg | what's that? | 22:15 |
| joerg | molnupilamivir? | 22:15 |
| de-facto | yep | 22:16 |
| de-facto | .title https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1463797898446049285 | 22:17 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From twitter.com: Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66): "Lots of headlines about B.1.1.529 today. Thoughts: Yes, this variant has a high # of spike mutations, & a few known to cause changes. But, we've seen previous variants that looked worrying & never took off. We should watch & wait for more data to estimate how concerning this is." | nitter | 22:17 |
| de-facto | hmm hmm | 22:20 |
| de-facto | .title https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421 | 22:20 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, the URL could not be loaded | 22:20 |
| de-facto | "Based on the data we have, this variant is out-competing others *far* faster than Beta and even Delta did" <-- if that is true it would be very concerning, but "Caveat first: data here is *very* preliminary, so everything could change. " | 22:21 |
| de-facto | shall we subsidize air traveling tourists from SA so we quickly can import that thing to Europe? maybe then we can see how it competes in our winter wave? | 22:24 |
| LjL | It's already in Hong Kong, it will come | 22:25 |
| de-facto | thanks air traveling industry, always at our service, we never wait long for updated mutants, they deliver | 22:25 |
| de-facto | oh did i mention that i am a big fan of that they allow air traveling tourists to enter countries without testing or quarantine if vaccinated, hence select only those variants that may cause a problem with vaccine protection? | 22:27 |
| LjL | Only about 65536 (overflow flag set) times | 22:27 |
| joerg | » "Caveat first: data here is *very* preliminary, so everything could change. " « oh yeah, pretty please with a ton of suhar and a cherry on top | 22:27 |
| de-facto | maybe big pharma should subsidize airplane traveling companies instead of tax money | 22:29 |
| de-facto | oh wait thats the same | 22:30 |
| LjL | I hereby dub this the Thanksgiving variant | 22:31 |
| LjL | Many thanks for it | 22:32 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59418127 | 22:32 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.bbc.com: Covid: New heavily mutated variant B.1.1.529 in South Africa raises concern - BBC News | 22:32 |
| de-facto | .title https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1463176829016186893 | 22:35 |
| LjL | This variant seems to give quirky results (known as an S-gene dropout) in the standard tests and that can be used to track the variant without doing a full genetic analysis. | 22:35 |
| LjL | That suggests 90% of cases in Gauteng may already be this variant and it "may already be present in most provinces" in South Africa. | 22:35 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From twitter.com: Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu): "Worth emphasising this is at super low numbers right now in a region of Africa that is fairly well sampled, however it very very much should be monitored due to that horrific spike profile (would take a guess that this would be worse antigenically than nearly anything else about)" | 42l - nitter | 22:35 |
| joerg | » Maybe people should just stop travelling ffs « https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421 | 22:36 |
| de-facto | oh wait, thats a GOOD IDEA | 22:36 |
| de-facto | .title https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1463880169119178753 | 22:37 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, the URL could not be loaded | 22:37 |
| de-facto | "Important thing to keep in mind: - SA has recently had relatively low cases - this may leave a void which a new variant can spread into more easily - it likely hasn't had to compete with Delta. In other places, where Delta rages, it may not be as fit." | 22:38 |
| joerg | HAHA » South African cases in the JHU data show a big spike on Nov 23. This is likely to be a simple artifact or an error, rather than the number of cases detected that day. For now, we've removed that data point from the 7-day average on our charts « | 22:38 |
| de-facto | yep, we are working on it, just wait for the initial seeding to be done in Europe | 22:38 |
| joerg | how long until the preliminary data gets falsified or confirmed? | 22:40 |
| joerg | so I know how long to suppress the panic | 22:40 |
| de-facto | .title https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/343 | 22:40 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From github.com: B.1.1 decendant associated with Southern Africa with high number of Spike mutations · Issue #343 · cov-lineages/pango-designation · GitHub | 22:40 |
| de-facto | .title https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1463975708770897923 | 22:44 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From twitter.com: Jeffrey Barrett (@jcbarret): "Took a look at the spike mutations in B.1.1.529 this evening, and colour coded them (details below)...there is...not much green." | 42l - nitter | 22:44 |
| LjL | For now, joerg, we don't know it it's more severe, we don't know it if evades vaccines... I'm afraid signs point to "yes" but we have no actual data about any of that | 22:52 |
| LjL | But I don't have anything comforting to say | 22:52 |
| joerg | :nod: | 22:52 |
| de-facto | yes we do not know how it "performs" but it most likely will have some properties that changed (just because of the number of mutations) and it also still works | 22:53 |
| * joerg goes back to TV, watching sth completely unrelated | 22:53 | |
| de-facto | nothing on the page of https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Risikogebiete_neu.html hence free traveling to SA for maximum import rates | 22:57 |
| LjL | Political reaction times are too slow | 23:04 |
| de-facto | well we would need proactive measures, reactions are always too slow | 23:05 |
| de-facto | ok to be fair we have quite a low prevalence in South Africa right now | 23:19 |
| de-facto | hence it also does not appear on the list of risk areas (e.g. RKI above) | 23:19 |
| de-facto | due to whatever reason (there quite likely is a reason for such many mutations) this new variant (or should we even call it strain?) emerged and was seen first in South Africa (Gauteng?) | 23:21 |
| de-facto | now it looks like it takes over Delta on the "portion of variant" graphs quite quickly, yet that can be due to two causes: 1) it really is biologically even more fit, hence then we should worry 2) it may just have bubbled up to the founders effect (e.g. if there was a super spread and this variant happened to be the one that took that particular superspread for its advantage) | 23:23 |
| de-facto | we only really would know if it spreads faster if we had wide community transmission where it competes against a known VoC such as Delta for example, then we would see how its fitness compares *on average* e.g. when the bubbling super spread events even out | 23:24 |
| de-facto | its the nature if this virus that it spreads in small superspreads (if scenarios allow for this, and i assume they did in SA since they had low incidence in comparison to their past), the name for this effect is overdispersion | 23:26 |
| Timvde | Something I don't get, is: how are other variants basically gone? | 23:29 |
| LjL | Timvde, not completely, but yes, once one comes to predominate the others become very marginal | 23:30 |
| Timvde | I get that delta is much more contagious, but that doesn't mean that other variants just basically stop spreading, right? | 23:30 |
| Timvde | LjL: but *why*? | 23:30 |
| LjL | Timvde, i can't answer because i don't understand why we have self-limiting waves in the first place. we have made many hypothesis here as to why that is, and i don't know, but i think one thing is tied to the other | 23:31 |
| Timvde | I'd expect that if delta is say 3 times more contagious than alpha, that we'd end up in a 75-25 equilibrium | 23:31 |
| LjL | i.e. if for some reason (that i don't understand) there is a "ceiling" to likely infections during one wave, then a much more fit variant will outcompete all the others | 23:31 |
| de-facto | probably multifold reasons: 1) less fit in terms of transmission (hit harder by containment) 2) more immunity (seroprevalence) in the high contact people crosslinking cohorts (due to longer incidence in the past) 3) tests and vaccines will target the variants that cause problems for long time already | 23:31 |
| Timvde | That seems to make sense mathematically, but it feels like a large leap for me to say that | 23:32 |
| Timvde | de-facto: but we haven't had any real containment for a year or so here | 23:32 |
| de-facto | its all relative, never black or white | 23:33 |
| Timvde | Yes, that's the thing, it seems too black and white for me :P | 23:33 |
| Timvde | "Oh, new variant, all the others simply disappear" | 23:33 |
| de-facto | well the new variant only will be called that if it has some fitness advantage under the conditions that are currently most widespread and if it takes over incidence (e.g. contributes more than 50% of new infections) everything will be targeted at the new variant | 23:35 |
| de-facto | keep in mind that we are talking about an exponentially amplifying system, small changes at a begin quite quickly can have a gigantic effect | 23:36 |
| de-facto | the interesting thing is that if two variants (say Alpha and Delta) both are present at the same time both will have to compete under similar circumstances, hence this is a direct comparison of their properties | 23:37 |
| LjL | %wik competitive exclusion principle | 23:38 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, from English Wikipedia: In ecology, the competitive exclusion principle, sometimes referred to as Gause's law, is a proposition named for Georgy Gause that two species competing for the same limited resource cannot coexist at constant population values. When one species has even the slightest advantage over [... want %more?] → https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competitive_exclusion_principle | 23:38 |
| de-facto | hence on a logarithmic graph (over time) their incidences will be two crossing straight lines (representing exponential growth or decline) and their slope will be determined by their actual reproduction number | 23:38 |
| de-facto | so its quite easy to fit: taking the logarithm of the incidences and then do a trivial Gaussian least squares regression fit on them will take advantage of every datapoint to increase the accuracy | 23:42 |
| LjL | "come on, the vaccine seems to be working fairly well" | 23:44 |
| LjL | is my dad's answer to this new variant and to my complaint we still don't have variant-specific vaccines | 23:44 |
| LjL | it's this stupid mindset that will ruin us | 23:44 |
| LjL | put a round peg into a square hole, it will fork for a while when the peg is kinda round but kinda square, and the hole is kinda square but kinda round... if you push hard enough | 23:45 |
| LjL | but eventually it will stop working, and why the hell are we just passively waiting for it? | 23:45 |
| de-facto | thats the reason why i am against tolerating global traveling, we simply will always only notice a new variant at a time where it most likely already has spread | 23:48 |
| de-facto | maybe we are lucky and this turns out to just be a bubbling up of a weird mutant that also vanishes again, but maybe another time we are not so lucky and even if we realize that as soon as the information becomes available it may already be too late since it may have spread over the whole globe | 23:50 |
| de-facto | are we lucky or unlucky? With B.1.640 or B.1.529? we simply do not know that yet, and once we know it most likely will be too late to contain it | 23:51 |
| de-facto | if we had more segmented communities, e.g. if not every city would be connected every day with every other city via fast airplane traveling we at least would have some time to observe properties of a mutant and if it really proves to be problematic concentrate all efforts to make this one problematic mutant extinct (in that city where it caused problems but still could not spread worldwide in days) | 23:53 |
| de-facto | but yeah what am i talking, noone cares about such things | 23:54 |
| LjL | Milan and other places are reintroducing mandatory masks outdoors (i think in Milan it'll be only the city center, dunno how defined) | 23:56 |
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