libera/##covid-19/ Saturday, 2021-12-04

de-facto.title https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid-19-threat-assessment-spread-omicron-first-update00:09
Brainstormde-facto: From www.ecdc.europa.eu: Threat Assessment Brief: Implications of the further emergence and spread of the SARS CoV 2 B.1.1.529 variant of concern (Omicron) for the EU/EEA first update00:09
de-factoits spreading fast worldwide, conveniently via airplane00:17
de-facto.title https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/00:18
Brainstormde-facto: From bnonews.com: Tracking COVID-19 variant Omicron - BNO News00:18
de-factoSouth Africa: 217; UK: 134; Zimbabwe: 50; Ghana: 33; United States: 23; Botswana: 21; Denmark: 18; Netherlands: 16; Norway: 15; Portugal: 13; Germany: 12; Canada: 12; Australia: 10; Hong Kong: 8; Israel: 7; Sweden: 7; South Korea: 6; Spain: 5; Brazil: 5; Italy: 4; Austria: 4; Nigeria: 3; Switzerland: 3; Iceland: 3; France: 2; India: 2; Japan: 2; Belgium: 200:18
de-factoSri Lanka: 1; Greece: 1; Saudi Arabia: 1; Ireland: 1; Réunion (France): 1; Czechia: 1; UAE: 1; Finland: 1; Malaysia: 1; Mexico: 1;00:18
de-factobravo.00:18
joergDredd: matrix, ohmy https://i.imgur.com/7JdW9bB.png00:21
joerg:-)00:21
de-facto.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068v200:22
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of the Omicron variant in South Africa | medRxiv00:22
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Hippos with runny noses test positive for COVID-19 at Belgian zoo → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r8bjct/hippos_with_runny_noses_test_positive_for_covid19/00:25
BrainstormNew from The Lancet (Online): [Comment] The political theatre of the UK's travel ban on South Africa: On Dec 24, 2020, the UK's Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced an immediate travel ban on all flights to South Africa after the detection of SARS-CoV-2 beta variant by South African [... want %more?] → https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02752-5/fulltext00:35
LjLjoerg, Dredd that wrong nickname replacement in quotes, while not really a new bug to the bridge as I've seen it countless times, could be considered a bit of a privacy violation in this particular scenario. So maybe it should be prioritized and fixed in less than two years or so01:23
ublxin other corner of open source world, question on /r/flightgear: "How close will be Flightgear 4 be to MFS2020"01:29
ublxBWAAHAHAHAHAA01:29
ublxexcuse me, wrong channel01:29
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +3108 cases (now 1.8 million), +15 deaths (now 29805) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +51131 cases (now 10.4 million) since 22 hours ago01:35
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: COVID-19 variants identified in the UK ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/GRDQ9H7W )01:36
de-facto.title https://rocs.hu-berlin.de/publication/maier-2021-pandemie/02:02
Brainstormde-facto: From rocs.hu-berlin.de: Die Pandemie wird durch fehlenden Impfschutz getrieben: Was ist zu tun? | Dirk Brockmann - Research on Complex Systems02:02
de-facto.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.24.21266831v102:02
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Germany’s current COVID-19 crisis is mainly driven by the unvaccinated | medRxiv02:02
de-facto"Here, we estimate that about 67%–76% of all new infections are caused by unvaccinated individuals, implying that only 24%–33% are caused by the vaccinated."02:03
de-factowow.02:03
de-facto"Furthermore, we estimate 38%–51% of new infections to be caused by unvaccinated individuals infecting other unvaccinated individuals. In total, unvaccinated individuals are expected to be involved in 8–9 of 10 new infections."02:03
de-factojoerg, ^^02:04
de-factoHe is interviewed in the latest podcast of https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast4684.html02:05
de-factothe interesting point about this is the following: for a given vaccination rate, e.g. 85% an increase of "only" an additional 7.5% may sound marginal at first, but it means 50% reduction in the unvaccinated from 15% = 100% - 85% to 7.5% = 100% - 85% - 7.5%02:30
de-factoif their contribution to new infections would be 76% reducing their numbers to half (e.g. by vaccinating 7.5% of naive population) it would affect 3/8 of the current new infections by unvaccinated02:37
LjLublx, incredibly close, they both simulate airplanes on a von neumann machine, what are the odds02:42
joergde-facto: today was too busy to already listen to it, got it in my podcast02:44
de-factoyeah just came out yesterday02:46
de-factoprobably a quite relevant modeling they are doing there02:46
joergdid they also include possible percolating and dispersion effects? I guess when you get into the 90% or such, the remaining unvaxed are "too far from each other" and the effect potentiates. Like critical mass for nuclear reaction02:54
de-factoi would think so, did not have time to read the study in detail yet02:56
ublxLjL: hah02:58
LjLslightly confused likely because of dementia: i see Moderna being either 100µg or 50µg, but wasn't it also 30µg? or maybe 30 is the actual amount of mRNA (in some unit)? in which case is it the amount in 100, or in 50?03:13
ublx30µg mrna in pfizer, 100µg in moderna, 50µg in moderna (half-dose) booster03:20
ublx^ is the sense i get from quick google refresh03:21
gryhttps://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/how-covid-19-harms-the-heart03:23
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The Table from the new UK Omicron report today for their first 22 cases by vaccination status. Small numbers but confirmed by many cases elsewhere for some extent of immune evasion to vaccination, aligns with reinfection [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146695602850375680203:25
de-factoyep but some papers used 100µg modeRNA in boosters03:30
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +21596 cases (now 2.7 million) since 23 hours ago03:33
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Concern over Covid-19 infections in children under 5 as South Africa’s daily cases shoot up → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/south-africa-covid-19-fourth-wave-children-7655356/03:53
LjLoh okay so 30 i was being confused with pfizer03:54
LjLde-facto, yeah they were probably set up before moderna announced they'd go with 5003:54
LjLa shame03:54
de-factowell BNT stays at their 30 but Moderna halfed it to 50, it kinda makes sense since its a booster03:55
de-factobut now they are discussing if for Omicron the higher dose would be better03:55
de-factoit seems most people in SA are not worried or even aware of Omicron, interesting03:56
de-factonothing on the website of Johannesburg, rather they are asking for ideas to restart tourism03:56
de-factohttps://www.joburg.org.za/media_/Newsroom/Pages/2021%20News%20Articles/December/Gauteng-tourism-needs-your-idea-to-revive-travel-and-leisure-industry.aspx04:02
de-facto.title https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_HIV/AIDS_adult_prevalence_rate04:26
Brainstormde-facto: From en.wikipedia.org: List of countries by HIV/AIDS adult prevalence rate - Wikipedia04:26
de-facto.title https://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/JC3032_AIDS_Data_book_2021_En.pdf04:27
Brainstormde-facto: From www.unaids.org: UNAIDS data 2021 (UNAIDS)04:27
de-factothose countries urgently need to ramp up their COVID vaccinations04:28
de-factowe should do everything to prevent long lasting infections to avoid breeding new mutants04:29
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +62193 cases (now 6.1 million) since 22 hours ago — Belgium: +17910 cases (now 1.8 million), +47 deaths (now 27167), +111535 tests (now 25.1 million) since 23 hours ago05:32
LjLde-facto, those countries won't magically be able to ramp up vaccinations. this thing was posted earlier <aann> https://newrepublic.com/article/162000/bill-gates-impeded-global-access-covid-vaccines - now i really don't know anything about how the Bill & Melinda foundation works and just how much influence it has, but clearly the COVAX program that was championed by them isn't doing even close to enough. would patent waivers help things? Africa thinks so. Gates05:53
LjLdoesn't think so. and currently Africa barely has vaccines.05:53
LjL(South Africa in particular is maybe a bit of a different story)05:53
de-factowell success in vaccinations campaigns depends on two things at least 1) vaccine availability (supply) 2) vaccine uptake (demand) and only if both work function people get their immune systems trained05:56
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: threat-assessment-covid-19-emergence-sars-cov-2-variant-omicron-december-2021.pdf ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/4G6U5ABM )05:56
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Threat Assessment Brief: Implications of the further emergence and spread of the SARS CoV 2 B.1.1.529 variant of concern (Omicron) for the EU/EEA first update ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/9SNS2TQ9 )05:56
de-factoafaik supply is a problem in many African states, but also demand is a problem in SA particularly05:56
de-factoso simply putting the patent in the paper shredder is not going ot solve this05:57
de-factofor supply we would need sustainable supply chains, competent and controlled manufacturing facilities, high and efficient production rates, constant quality check, transparent documentation to gain trust of people in the brand05:59
de-factofor demand we would need people to understand their benefit from receiving a vaccination (may be quite difficult in Africa), transparent information campaign (including mechanism of immunization, realistic expectations for benefits, side effects etc), infrastructure in place for the logistics, easy access for people to the vaccination sites and appointments and so on06:02
de-factoits already difficult to achieve this in Europe, so it may be even more of a challenge in Africa06:03
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 837: COVID-19 clinical update #91 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #91, Dr. Griffin discusses final results of molnupiravir trial, Omicron variant of concern, outcomes in B-cell depleted patients, recovery in T-cell depleted macaques, peptide for induction of T cell immunity, [... want %more?] → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-837/06:15
de-factosounds interesting ^^06:18
BrainstormUpdates for Saxony-Anhalt, Germany: +4542 cases (now 170808), +11 deaths (now 3846) since 23 hours ago — Inner Mongolia, China: +61 cases (now 920) since 23 hours ago — Lombardy, Italy: +2809 cases (now 940476), +15 deaths (now 34428) since 23 hours ago — India: +295 cases (now 34.6 million), +276 deaths (now 470530) since 7 hours ago06:34
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to be probed for linking COVID vaccine and AIDS → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/brazilian-president-jair-bolsonaro-to-be-probed-for-linking-covid-vaccine-and-aids-7655528/06:43
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: FDA clears use of Lilly’s COVID-19 antibody therapy for kids → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/fda-clears-use-of-lillys-covid-19-antibody-therapy-for-kids-7655514/06:52
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Italian man tries to dodge Covid jab using fake arm → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r8j6h7/italian_man_tries_to_dodge_covid_jab_using_fake/07:30
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Novavax Statement on Omicron Variant Response: First, Novavax is evaluating its vaccine against the Omicron variant, as the company has done for previous variants... Second, Novavax has initiated development of an [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/r8j6ja/novavax_statement_on_omicron_variant_response/07:49
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Six more US states find Omicron cases, Delta still top coronavirus threat → https://indianexpress.com/article/world/six-more-us-states-find-omicron-cases-delta-still-top-coronavirus-threat-7655617/07:58
BrainstormNew from MedicineNet: (news): Study Finds Delta Somewhat Resistant to Vaccines — What About Omicron? → http://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp08:36
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | December 04, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/r8ktri/daily_discussion_thread_december_04_2021/09:04
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Actual SPI-M-O quote (in the article):"SARS-CoV-2 will continue to be a threat to health system function and require active management, of which vaccination and surveillance are key, for at least the next five years."These hysterical headline writers [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/146704300121825280009:13
joerghttps://newrepublic.com/article/162000/bill-gates-impeded-global-access-covid-vaccines  lol! tl;dr! when I read "intellectual properties" I'm already done with this conspiration theory for the intellectual and the left. Show me one case where a supposed "owner of IP" has sues some violator/pirate! Patents are PUBLIC, everybody could copy them, face any legal consequences later if at all.09:19
joergsued*09:19
xxjust because patents are public doesn't mean they contain sufficient useful info to recreate things09:26
joergso why waive them?09:48
joergknowledge is illegal?09:49
joergwhat's the crime of BioNTech? that they didn't build schools about biocemistry and molecular biology instead of producing vaccines as fast as they could09:50
joergmeanwhile COVAX doesn't know where and how to store the vaccine doses they can't find anybody ready to *receive* them, I heard09:52
joerg>>we don't want your vaccine donations, we have no fridges to store them. Give us fridges and tell us how to make the vaccines ourselves!<<  *shrug*09:58
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Mums who were severely ill urge pregnant women to get jabs → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-5953097610:00
xxI consider it irresponsible to get pregnant during a worldwide pandemic. 1) We don't need more people 2) It puts extra strain on an already overworked healthcare system10:01
finely[m]The USTR publishes an annual 301 report on IP enforcement by country.... (full message at https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/libera.chat/8d70d87f3505b55c13d2fed6ed2c1f4e62ba3462)10:03
joerggosh, what's that? please use channel's logbot, it at least keeps context, timestamps, and clickable links10:15
joerghmm, not even a channel quote10:17
joergdamn matrix bridge10:18
joerghttps://i.imgur.com/IBThF0E.png10:19
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +61486 cases (now 6.1 million) since 19 hours ago10:30
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Neil Stone (@DrNeilStone): Don't be surprised if "doom & gloom" lab results come out regarding #Omicron and vaccine escape.Remember - It's not what happens in a lab that matters, but the real world.Lab work won't tell us whether vaccination prevents severe disease. This is the most [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/DrNeilStone/status/146707709797382144311:43
joerg>> Replying to @DrNeilStone  and @fact_covid Sadly, I think we’re beyond that now. <<11:51
joerghttp://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Spain;Portugal&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&leftTrim=-40&rightTrim=3&legacy=no   /// topic: POLL: please provide feedback about the bot at https://framadate.org/covid-bot if you are a channel regular | COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) coronavirus pandemic, also at #covid-19:matrix.org | "%cases <place>" for data (best use Brainstorm in PM) | Resources: https://github.com/ljl-covid/links | Zotero: https://is.11:59
joerggd/7UgsH2 | Logs: http://reisenweber.net/irclogs/libera/__covid-19/ /// Germany: http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm11:59
joerg^^^ for the chanlog11:59
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil's top court opens investigation into Bolsonaro for linking Covid-19 vaccines to AIDS → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r8ndw1/brazils_top_court_opens_investigation_into/12:20
BrainstormUpdates for Nepal: +220 cases (now 822392), +5 deaths (now 11540), +5295 tests (now 4.7 million) since 23 hours ago12:35
BrainstormNew from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 3 dicembre 2021: Ulteriori misure  urgenti  in  materia  di  contenimento  e  gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19 nella Provincia Autonoma diBolzano. (21A07253) → http://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2021/12/04/21A07253/SG12:48
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): It always amazes me how promiscuous SARS-CoV-2 is. dw.com/en/hippos-with… → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/146710176539701248013:07
joerg>>Hippos with runny noses test positive for COVID-19 at Belgian zoo /// Replying to @florian_krammer It amazes me that anyone was brave enough to swab a hippo.<< :-P13:15
generain belgium, hippo swabs you :-P13:16
joerghehehe13:17
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Two hippos in Belgian zoo test positive for COVID-19 → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r8oj5p/two_hippos_in_belgian_zoo_test_positive_for/13:35
BrainstormNew from Politico: Coronavirus: In farewell podcast, Angela Merkel urges Germans to get vaccinated → https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-last-podcast-farewell-vaccination-coronavirus/13:54
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +63179 cases (now 6.1 million) since 22 hours ago — United Kingdom: +51065 cases (now 10.4 million) since 20 hours ago14:39
joergde-facto: the Brockmann podcast was... not an easy listening. I'm actually surprised this type of talking seems is _not_ a skill only politicians learn in crashcourses, Brockman as well Answered a question >>why A?<< by >>well, B causes C, and regarding the interference with D and E... Did I mention I studied XY? We should do F!<<14:57
sdfgsdfghey guys it's not spreading that fast in australia, UK's spread might be worse than uk but also better than SA15:00
sdfgsdfgthan au*15:00
sdfgsdfgsydney is about 95% vax15:01
joergSA is no good model15:01
joergcohort is too different from anything "western" we are interested in15:02
joergsorry, this sounds more cynical than been intended15:02
joerg95% vax? wow!15:02
joergsdfgsdfg: where from did you get any numbers for spread in locations outrside SA?15:04
sdfgsdfgone of the first few nations to discover it, still have less than 20-30 cases15:06
joergno reliable data15:06
sdfgsdfgof course, we have to let it spread around first :P15:06
joerghehe, indeed15:06
sdfgsdfglike a golden retriever in a dog park15:07
joergI wish we never find out how much faster omicron spreads :-)15:07
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Man who put superglue on the lock of a Covid-19 vaccination centre in the U.K., preventing 504 people from getting jabs, jailed for 12 weeks → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r8q1nf/man_who_put_superglue_on_the_lock_of_a_covid19/15:09
sdfgsdfghttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/omicron-uk-england-cases-vaccinated-b1969545.html15:19
sdfgsdfg.title15:19
Brainstormsdfgsdfg: From www.independent.co.uk: Half of England’s omicron cases are in vaccinated people, say health officials | The Independent15:19
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Up to 300,000 people facing heart-related illnesses due to post-pandemic stress disorder, warn physicians → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r8qhtx/up_to_300000_people_facing_heartrelated_illnesses/15:28
joergdefine: vaccinated15:28
de-factojoerg, i think people like Dirk Brockmann, Michael Meyer-Hermann, Viola Priesemann, etc do really important work and politicians would profit (in making competent decisions) when listening more (and also in times when no apparent urgent actions are implied by an escalating emergency) to what they have to say with the scenarios they did model15:44
joergno doubt. Just not all scientists are also brilliant talkers15:45
de-factodoes not matter too much, since they publish papers where they describe their statements in detail in a structured way15:46
joerg:nod:15:46
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: Gilead Recalls 2 Lots Of Remdesivir: The recall  involves 2 lots of 100 mg of remdesivir for injection to the user level. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/gilead-recalls-two-lots-of-remdesivir16:05
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: COVID In Colorado: State Health Experts Using Wastewater To Detect Omicron Variant → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/r8rjm9/covid_in_colorado_state_health_experts_using/16:15
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +3527 cases (now 1.8 million), +25 deaths (now 29818) since 23 hours ago16:31
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid: Doctors' leaders back postponed health checks: A senior GP says the move would support the "national priority" to vaccinate people quickly. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-5953375016:43
ndn[m]so psychiatry and 'Post Pandemic Stress Disorder' are going to be used to mask mRNA vaccine-induced cardiological problems. that's neat.17:23
ublxeh?17:35
ecksyawn17:35
ndn[m]just referring to that Standard article: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/post-pandemic-stress-disorder-heart-conditions-covid-london-physicians-b969436.html17:38
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +22665 cases (now 2.8 million), +56 deaths (now 20092) since 20 hours ago17:40
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Saturday 04 December 2021 Update → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/r8t159/saturday_04_december_2021_update/17:40
ecksstrange because nowhere does that article mention vaccine side effects17:45
ndn[m]why's that strange?17:46
ublxnah17:47
ecksone might think that you're making up shit about vaccine side effects17:47
ndn[m]what's this 'further nonsense' ban about?17:58
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A Belgian zoo has said that its two hippopotamuses have been taken into quarantine after testing positive for coronavirus. It is unclear how Imani, aged 14, and Hermien, 41, caught the virus, Antwerp Zoo said, adding the animals were doing well - apart [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r8tg4c/a_belgian_zoo_has_said_that_its_two/17:59
ndn[m]i got kicked i assume because ublix didnt like my take on an article. rejoined and got banned without saying anything else...18:00
ublxand yet here you are?18:01
ndn[m]im happy to talk in private18:01
ndn[m]guessing you aren't?18:01
ublxyou were kicked due to complete lack of interest in doing that, yes, and banned for the immediate rejoin18:02
ndn[m]ahh, well then maybe your script needs to granularity. if it was indeed a script18:02
ndn[m]needs some*18:02
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, PhD-MD  (@michaelzlin): As expected the Thanksgiving holiday was followed by a spike of cases. The below graph is from Massachusetts.Massachusetts is among the best vaccinated states so it will be interesting to see if a spike in hospitalizations follows in the next 2 weeks [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/146717953119047270418:18
LjL-MatrixThat's interesting, a Matrix user with the [m] also on actual Matrix18:18
BrainstormNew from Politico: Coronavirus: S&D group leader Iratxe García Pérez tests positive for COVID-19 → https://www.politico.eu/article/socialists-democrats-leader-iratxe-garcia-pere-positive-covid-19/18:27
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Adding to a strong body of evidence that longer spacing (16 vs 4 weeks) substantially improves the immune response to mRNA vaccine. And Prior Covid benefit from 1 shot. cell.com/action/showPdf… @cellhostmicrobe pic.twitter.com/P5DOLlqoeO → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146718698132715110518:46
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +16627 cases (now 5.1 million), +75 deaths (now 134152), +636592 tests (now 121.8 million) since 23 hours ago19:00
joerg>><LjL> de-facto, yeah they were probably set up before moderna announced they'd go with 50<< or _after_ Moderna recently announced they might need *double* dose for boosters (so back to 100) cause of omicron ;-D19:01
LjL... oh19:03
joerg<319:04
joergmoderna </319:04
LjLa friend would like to know if Moderna (half-dose, since that's what's offered, i guess) or Pfizer would be best as a booster for initial AstraZeneca. my answer is that with the data i have, i don't know, because the UK studied half-*Pfizer* but not half-Moderna, and the US didn't look at AZ (but also, didn't look at half-Moderna). if you or de-facto know study i've missed that actually compares things with the doses being used, he'd probably appreciate19:05
de-factobtw thought about their naming scheme if they would name updates mRNA-1273.529 it would suggest the sequence still got a length of 1273 yet didnt Omicron had some deletions etc?19:05
LjLjoerg, well if that's really true for Moderna, it's probably true for Pfizer as well, just Pfizer always preferred to keep selling what they have ;(19:05
de-factoyeah there was that study comparing janssen moderna and biontech boosters19:06
de-factoi linked it several times here19:06
de-factobut not with AZ afaik19:06
joergyep. For your friend, I *guess* Moderna is still a 10% higher efficiency than BNT19:06
de-factoyet maybe AZ is somewhat similar to Janssen19:06
de-factoi think it does not matter too much if its Moderna or BioNTech19:06
joergunless they compromised that with their cutting half19:07
LjLjoerg, you think the spike in Spain and Portugal is determined by Omicron?19:07
LjLde-facto, ... but with half-dose Moderna?19:07
LjLi saw the graph that was on Twitter, from the US, with the 3x3 table of vaccine mixtures, but that was full-dose Moderna19:08
de-factoright they used 100µg Moderna afaik19:09
ArsaneritWhy do some people refuse Spikevax as a replacement for Comirnaty?19:09
de-factono idea19:09
ArsaneritCould it be German chauvinism?19:09
Arsanerit"I trust a German vaccine more than an American vaccine"?19:10
joergLjL: no, I seen that spike before3 omicron became popular, then maybe it already sprread there without anybody noticing. Would need number of detected omicron cases in Spain to tell for sure19:10
LjLjoerg, yeah who knows, although i vaguely recall reading some days ago that by looking at prior samples or something, they determined Omicron was already in Europe before South Africa even knew about it19:10
joergArsanerit: it's some weird communication shit, typical german messup19:11
ArsaneritEarly on the pandemic there were also reports that the virus was possibly spreading in Europe months before Ischgl/Bergamo, even in 2019 already.  Has this been substantiated at all?19:12
joergSpahn said "we need to get rid of Moderna, it has a 'best before:' that will expire soon", you can imagine the rest19:12
ublx"de-facto | yeah there was that study comparing ..."19:13
ublxde-facto: can you relink that?; i'm not sure what to grep for otherwise19:13
LjLArsanerit, i think it has remained as substantiated as it ever was. the RNA was found in sewer samples and other places, parts of it were reconstructed, but the people who were saying "but that could be something else or a fluke" would still be saying it. on my part, that seems like clear evidence.19:13
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Looking good, JapanAlmost ~80% of population fully vaccinated.This is what containment looks like (vs 100% Delta)~100 cases/day, 1-2 deaths/d, among 126 million peopleIt can be done.@ourWorldinData pic.twitter.com/ogTbrmY7jg → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146719357606069862419:14
ArsaneritLjL: Ok.  Strange.  Then why wasn't there a first wave earlier in winter 2019/2020?19:14
Arsaneritbbl # dinner19:14
LjLArsanerit, i don't know, but i find it just as strange as the fact we do indeed have waves sometimes followed by relatively long periods of not noticing infections19:15
* joerg got a weird idea: Rats with covid? could you tell apart in sewage water?19:15
LjLso yeah both are strange to me, and there are many possible ways to explain it but none of them ever convinced me a lot... but i don't find the one stranger than the other19:15
LjLjoerg, only if the virus mutated to "accommodate" them better, otherwise you probably can't, you're just looking at RNA. but if rats had it, it's likely that *some* humans also had it19:16
joergof course, yeah19:16
LjLit's not the middle ages any longer... buuuut... there are situations...19:16
de-factohmm i deleted all my log files19:19
joergDid China send some pandas tp an italian zoo in 2019 or 2018?19:19
joergde-facto: feel free to use the fine search in logbot19:20
de-facto.title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext19:20
Brainstormde-facto: From www.thelancet.com: The Lancet | The best science for better lives19:20
de-factothats a new one i guess19:20
de-facto"Safety and immunogenicity of seven COVID-19 vaccines as a third dose (booster) following two doses of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 or BNT162b2 in the UK (COV-BOOST): a blinded, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 2 trial"19:20
LjLthat's the UK one i was referring to19:21
LjLbut it's still full-dose Moderna19:21
joergde-facto: insider tip, if you wanna recover logs: the plain text format is in same location, just delete the *.html ending19:24
LjLde-facto, is the study you had in mind the one this graph is from? https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/146654392993581876119:24
joerghttp://reisenweber.net/irclogs/libera/__covid-19/__covid-19.2021-12-03.log19:24
joergvs http://reisenweber.net/irclogs/libera/__covid-19/__covid-19.2021-12-03.log.html19:25
de-factoyeah i know, i just dont have the time right now19:28
de-factoits a neat feature btw19:28
de-factoLjL, yes19:29
LjLokay, thanks19:29
de-factohttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.10.21264827v219:30
de-facto.title19:31
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Heterologous SARS-CoV-2 Booster Vaccinations – Preliminary Report | medRxiv19:31
LjLyeah also at https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34671773/19:34
LjLwhat i don't like about this one19:34
LjLis they used a D614G pseudovirus19:34
LjLi mean, not even Delta?!19:34
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Zotero / COVID links Group / Top-Level Items: Heterologous SARS-CoV-2 Booster Vaccinations - Preliminary Report ( https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/J9CBHNFJ )19:36
joergArsanerit: ((germans don't want moderna)) also there was some messup with Moderna not recommended for young people or somesuch, iirc, because $some_very_rare_complication19:37
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +92372 cases (now 10.5 million), +270 deaths (now 146001) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +3527 cases (now 1.8 million) since 23 hours ago19:38
Arsaneritok19:43
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): How the virus dynamics correlates with a person's infectiousness, and why frequent rapid tests are as good as PCR for diagnosing infectiousness and averting spreadNew @PNASNews pnas.org/content/118/49… pic.twitter.com/fNjUwETM1V → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146720681509185536020:01
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A UK travel testing policy change: As of Tuesday, "required regardless of vaccination status to slow transmission of Omicron"ft.com/content/7c45fa… @Philgeorgiadis → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146721878440649523720:57
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil's Rio cancels New Year celebration as country accounts to second-highest COVID deaths. "We respect science" says social-democrat Rio mayor → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/r8xu49/brazils_rio_cancels_new_year_celebration_as/21:25
ZdrytchX.CASES AUSTRALIA21:51
ZdrytchX.cases australia21:52
BrainstormZdrytchX: Australia has had 216592 confirmed cases (0.8% of all people) and 2042 deaths (0.9% of cases) as of 14 hours ago. 48.6 million tests were done (0.4% positive). 20.1 million were vaccinated (78.3%). +19 cases since 6 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia&legacy=no21:52
BrainstormZdrytchX: If you know of an official or otherwise good site for data about Australia, with a reasonably short URL, please %tell LjL about it.21:52
lastshellhow things are looking ?22:11
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +46169 cases (now 6.1 million), +222 deaths (now 103530) since 23 hours ago22:13
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Susan Hopkins (@SMHopkins): I read this like a report from a single university hospital in the UK. As one swallow doesn’t make a Summer neither does this mean all is fine. We will need more time and more data. But nonetheless better than if they were all hospitalised with severe COVID  [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/SMHopkins/status/146723559024464281622:21
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): About 5 million children age 5-11 now vaccinated with their first dose (nearly ~1 million with 2nd dose) and I've yet to see a case of myocarditis reported  → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/146724256228509286522:30
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Trevor Bedford (@trvrb): If Omicron Rt continues at around 3 this indicates a much larger threat in terms of case counts than Delta. I'm hoping that prior immunity protects against severe outcomes, but I'm very concerned about the size of the epidemic wave in the US and across the world. 18/19 → https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/146724592393998336122:40
LjL-MatrixJudging from what Trevor Bedford says, not too good, lastshell23:30
LjL-MatrixThe more we lower Rt of the current variants by distancing, lockdowns etc, the more we select for variants with a higher intrinsic R I guess23:31
LjL-MatrixThat's not to say those things shouldn't be done, since I don't see a clear alternative...23:31
lastshellbut cases are mild LjL-Matrix ?23:31
LjL-Matrixlastshell: maybe. I don't think we have enough sequences ones to characterize them  well, or at least the ones characterizing them aren't making the finding public yes23:34
BrainstormUpdates for India: +8255 cases (now 34.6 million), +90 deaths (now 470620) since 17 hours ago — Netherlands: +22631 cases (now 2.8 million) since 20 hours ago23:34
LjL-MatrixTo know what it means for the cases to be mild you need to know the age, vaccine status and other factors of the people who got it23:34
lastshelltrue more cases are young healthy individuals23:35

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