libera/##covid-19/ Monday, 2022-01-31

TuvixI'm not paid to fix thier stuff. I do high-level network engineering, but I have zero interst in volunteering my time to a failed effort.00:00
DreddThe bridge disconnecting and reconnecting users is largely caused by libera limits or the bug fixing of the libera privacy bits00:00
TuvixIf they want to pay me a proper annual full-time high-tier network engineer salary, put them in touch with me I guess.00:00
DreddI do agree the bridge should be versioned and turned on and off only in clearly defined Windows00:01
TuvixI've got experience with distributed socket-level code and scaling across multiple HA systems running in tandem, so it's not really bluster.00:01
TuvixI'm also not cheap.00:01
DreddNot like 50 times over 2 days00:01
DreddThat was libera changes though during the exodus00:01
DreddMe either, though sadly I'm cheaper than I'd like to be00:01
TuvixDredd: No, not windows. HA means you can move active traffic away from the nodes you're going to upgrade and it will have a minimal impact. This is High-Availability 101 stuff.00:02
DreddI honestly think there limit is because libera don't want the majority of users to be matrix00:02
DreddAnd I'm not talking about Windows being high availability but honestly a mass exodus a month shouldn't be a big issue once every six weeks00:03
DreddIf that fucks libera, then the IRC network is shit, no offense00:03
DreddIt's just one connection from the bridge doing all the accounts i think?00:03
TuvixThe IRC network is fine; it's all the people on Matrix the whine about it, and sure, to some extent the stupid spam of quits/joins that's annoying.00:04
TuvixNothing on Libera is "fucked" except the poor Matrix users.00:04
KlindaI tested negative guys00:04
DreddWhich is also why HA would have to allow the matrix bridge to distribute those IRC sessions across more than one instance of the bridge, else how can it work?00:05
DreddAs far as I know that IRC doesn't allow it00:05
LjLthe connections are each on a different IPv500:05
LjL6 even00:05
TuvixSure, why on earth would you run 20k connections through a single bloody host?00:05
TuvixThat's just stupid.00:05
LjLthey are not00:05
LjLjesus christ00:05
LjLlet's move this to #matrix-irc or to /dev/null00:05
DreddThat's just a convention to allow banning persistence LjL @LjL:libera.chat  I believe00:06
TuvixLjL: Yet they all vanish when "the bridge" goes down. Single point of failure somewhere. "Distributed chat" my ass.00:06
LjLthe "distributed" part of it has NOTHING TO DO with the bridge, and has NEVER BEEN CLAIMED TO00:06
LjLyou are both seeing the whole thing through the lens of "Matrix is the thing that matters, Libera is old and dumb" OR "Libera is all that matters and Matrix is just a bridge to it"00:07
LjLboth of those are stupid viewpoints00:07
LjLyou'll never agree on a single thing starting from those00:07
DreddOk I'll drop it but with all due respect Tuvix you don't really know much about the matrix bridge or protocol you're bashing and are coming across as a bit of an IRC supremacy zealot00:07
LjLDredd, and with all due respect you're coming across as the same, but on the Matrix side00:08
LjLbut i agree00:08
TuvixIRC requires long-term sockets, and the fact that the all die at once means there's a lack of distrubition to whatever is unable to retain them.00:08
DreddI'm saying "if the network can't handle the load of dropping clients from from lists internally then it's fucked", not that IRC is fucked in general00:08
TuvixYou scale that up or you'll end up with problems when the bridge tips over and its sockets are unable to be retained, which causes the mass-quits you see. The solution is to avoid funneling them through insufficient socket management, and lack of distribution across more points of failure.00:09
DreddI have no issue with IRC, just with the libera attempt to limit those of us who want to access it cos matrix00:09
Dredd*via00:09
TuvixI've personally written code that distributes application flows to <n> interfaces externally on differnet physical hosts, or even differnet datacenters, so I know personally this can be done.00:09
TuvixMatrix obviously does not do it.00:09
LjLDredd, the network handles it fine, but it's pretty horrible to see from *clients* unless you disable showing joins and quits (which many people don't for good reasons), and IRC is based on joining and quitting, not on persistent connection.00:09
DreddI think Tuvix  is basically saying matrix is shit and a failure, without actually knowing about it or justifying00:10
DreddCorrect me if I'm wrong but I don't feel we are exactly behaving the same00:10
LjLTuvix keeps saying "Matrix" when he means "Matrix bridge" because he doesn't care about the difference00:10
Tuvix/j ##ha-socket-flow and we'll discuss.00:10
DreddExcept that we both care passionately about what we're arguing and are off topic 😁00:10
TuvixYes, any time I say "Matrix" I mean its use here. obviously.00:10
* Dredd shuts up00:11
LjLno it's not obvious Tuvix00:11
LjLbecause *this is a Matrix room as well as an IRC channel*00:11
LjLDredd may not even be knowingly connecting to an IRC channel00:11
DreddSee that obviously is unnecessary and a little rude imo00:11
LjLhe's just connecting to #covid-19:matrix.org00:11
Dredd,*sigh*00:11
TuvixWhen I'm talking about socket level connection to IRC, yes, it is obvious. Or I'm talking to people who don't understand sockets to IRC. Which is why I just joined ##ha-socket-flow to discuss, well, Highly-available socket-flow level network design ;)00:12
* LjL-Matrix uploaded an image: (411KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/JIQHOcYRVnZLOVnwnBpJtajY/matrix-covid19.png >00:13
LjL-MatrixNo sign of IRC here00:13
DreddYou've basically said, "it's shit, I'm better at doing stuff like this, it's obviously shit, I'll fix it if they pay me, I am so good" bit you've talked around it, used big words and been pretty condescending which is partly why I felt justified trying to argue the bridge merits00:13
LjL-Matrixexcept for the vague hint from people who have :libera.chat as their home server00:13
DreddOr rather that it isn't as categorically broken imo as you believe Tuvix00:14
DreddAlso do tell me to shut up of my paraphrasing is way off00:14
DreddI'm not gonna talk about the IRC bridge anymore anyway00:14
DreddThough I'm now in a meta discussion space 🤔00:15
TuvixIt's laggy, connections sometimes take minutes or never show up when "the Matrix Bridge™" screws up and "doesn't route" traffic betwen endpoints. Connections die in great numbers becuase "the Matrix bridge™" is unable to keep them open.00:15
DreddLjL @LjL:libera.chat will slap me with a fish in a minute00:15
LjLnot sure, i may be busy taking benzodiazepines00:15
TuvixThat sounds pretty broken to me. One Matrix user even "pinged" an oper in #libera over several days to show how badly broken "the Matrix bridge™" was. Referring, spefifically, to "the Matrix bridge™" and not Matrix™00:16
DreddTuvix : they certainly could distribute sockets among multiple bridge instances (if they made it with that way) but it still doesn't really help of they need to change something incompatible in the architecture between the different parts of the architecture in a way that doesn't let you switch over in a phased way00:22
DreddAnd the reason it doesn't work that way largely is that it isn't a priority of the matrix people I think00:22
DreddI personally which it did work the way you describe00:23
DreddIt would be better for me00:23
TuvixAnd yet when Libera's linked IRCds are taken offline for reboots it isn't as disruptive, specifically becuase new connections are floated away.00:23
LjLit can be pretty disruptive sometimes tbf00:23
DreddThe bridge is entirely a single instance thing, it isn't fault tolerant, highly available or distributed00:23
LjLand it's more disruptive when it happens unscheduled00:24
TuvixThe matrix (it's bridge, to be abjectly clear here) clearly does not put such resources or distribute connections approperly when it needs to reboot. Or, in the case of a SIGTERM, that's someone intentionally shutting donw a process with a signal.00:24
DreddLjL @LjL:libera.chat: I didn't mean that matrix will replace IRC. I meant that IRC shouldn't exclude matrix because it isn't IRC00:25
DreddBy my quote, sorry I didn't communicate to well00:25
TuvixIRC well hate on the Matrix bridge™ less when it stops failing on the order that it does.00:25
Tuvixwill*00:25
DreddKlinda: nice! Was it a PCR?00:25
TuvixTo be clear, if this network saw netsplits with as much noise as the Matrix bridge, I'd be first in line to whine about it too ;)00:26
* Tuvix is an equal opportunity bad-network hater :P00:26
LjLTuvix, i'm sure you were on freenode to witness what happened during attacks on big channels00:26
Dredd*sigh* Tuvix I will say one last time they all the current fails are due to a limit imposed on the libera side00:26
LjLTuvix, i know i was and my Konversation pretty much froze up due to how many people were quitting/joining at a time00:27
LjLDredd, and the limits in turn exist because if there were even bigger fails than these, people's clients would go bonkers00:27
LjLseems like a bit of a catch 22 eh00:27
TuvixAnd this occurred as commonly as Matrix vomits? [citation needed]00:27
LjLi think i agree with Tuvix that the bridge isn't tenable the way it is now. it is not scalable. it won't scale to "most users being Matrix" if that's what will happen. it will just destroy Libera that way.00:28
LjLyou can't have tens of thousands of clients disconnecting all at a time00:28
TuvixKlinda: If it was instead an antigen test, just be aware those do have a fairly notable false-negative rate (where it'll report negative even if you are positive/contagious)00:28
LjLit's not a shortcoming of IRC, it's just something that shouldn't happen00:28
TuvixWhen my Tor connection is more reliable than the Matrix IRC bridge, I have some "questions" ;)00:29
DreddAny fairly often join / meant floods aren't the bridge failing either. It's then restarting the bridge every time they land code changes because they don't have a proper release process or realise that it is a problem for IRC clients00:30
DreddMatrix folds those messages by default and I think they are perhaps less aware of the IRC side of things than they should be00:31
DreddWhich is why letting them know these things is a good idea00:31
TuvixYou can separate TCP socket flow from your codebase with good code design. I've written such projects before.00:31
DreddThe lead bridge guy is a really nice person and generally goes out of his way to make things better00:31
LjLnow please let's drop it though, i'm as guilty as both of you of continuing it and i typically don't mind slightly offtopic discussions here, but we're 3 ops having an offtopic flamewar about the two protocols that this channel/room is made up out of00:31
TuvixI could probably write a cute interface with nothing more than Perl that would tip over less then Matrix.00:32
LjLlet's just stop and think how ridiculous that looks00:32
DreddIt's not just about the socket, it's the thing on the other side talking down it00:32
DreddYou're being condescending again Tuvix00:32
TuvixLjL: To be fair, I created a new room.00:32
TuvixDredd: I've personally written code *in* perl that does it.00:32
DreddAs I read it00:32
DreddI'll stop00:32
TuvixI have *done* this exact thing before. Join me in that room and I'll share details.00:32
DreddNot what I said 😭00:32
DreddI don't think you're understanding what I mean, socket persistence to the IRC server isn't the issue, there's quite a bit more work than that00:33
DreddThat's just a reverse proxy or l load balancer00:33
DreddMore work that they would need to do in the bridge I mean00:34
TuvixObviously. That project took me maybe 3 months to integrate into a complex application framework (the one I wrote in Perl leveraging socket(2) and select(2) code)00:34
DreddIf you want to enlighten anyone to how the bridge you don't understand the architecture of can be made HA with a simple Perl script, do it to the bridge devs00:35
Tuvixsimple? Now who's being condenscending.. :(00:35
dTalD R A M A00:35
TuvixdTal: Indeed, I even invited Dredd to a proper channel. He's ignored it, apparently.00:35
DreddI'm not interested, I do personally think you're talking out your ass a little bit I hope I'm wrong and we soon get a better matrix bridge that causes less IRC issues too00:35
DreddNo I didn't00:36
DreddI joined00:36
DreddI said simple because you implied or would be a simple Perl script. I may have misread that though, sorry00:36
DreddI mean to say "I thought you implied"00:37
dTalaight y'all can it and talk about covid00:38
dTalmy sister's boyfriend tested positive today, concurrently with showing symptoms00:39
dTalseems the tests aren't too useful with omicron, the window is very narrow00:40
dTalsister still has to go to work even though they live together00:40
LjLdTal, that's the silliest thing00:46
LjLbut i guess it's not that silly if they've decided to just let it run00:46
dTalno it's silly00:46
LjLwhich they probably have notwithstanding the couple of restrictive measures they still put on for show00:46
dTalspecifically she doesn't have to isolate because she's "double jabbed"00:46
LjLnot triple?00:47
dTalnope not even boosted! Just the normal first run00:47
LjL:(00:47
LjLi think here it's boosted people don't have to isolate but must wear FFP2 everywhere including outdoors00:47
TuvixSo, we've taken this elsewhere, but nowhere did I say my network implemtnation is "simple" to fix complex networking tasks. It's actually quite involved, and requires cooperation from skilled network and app-folks.00:47
LjLi'm not sure if that helps any compared to just telling them to go free and infect00:47
dTalTuvix: shush00:48
dTalI feel like the phenomenon of people thinking it's all bullshit is greatly exacerbated by examples of naked bullshit like this00:49
dTalthere are so many cases of non-science-based, compliance-oriented behavior00:50
dTalall those people saying "it's not about the virus it's about compliance" are not entirely wrong00:50
LjLdTal, i think the rules are justified when they have obvious effects. when they're just a bit of handwaving to *pretend* you're dealing with the virus, then it does seem like just a show of force: "we can make you do that"00:54
LjLso paradoxically, you could say that stricter rules may seem *less* authoritarian than looser rules, depending on details00:54
LjLstricter rules can make sense, depending on the specifics. overly loose rules just won't work, so you only have them for show.00:54
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Covid2019: You can't just catch omicron and 'get it over with.' Covid doesn't work that way: Beyond death counts and mortality rates, the widely confirmed debilitating effects of long-haul Covid should wipe all wrong-headed “let it rip” notions [... want %more?] → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/sgml6e/you_cant_just_catch_omicron_and_get_it_over_with/00:56
LjLsomeone is writing their reddit posts all in the title00:58
DreddI missed Tuvix  explaining the complexity of his Perl suggestion earlier and got the wrong end of the stick there01:16
DreddSo I fucked up there01:16
TuvixIt happens, we made up and actually are having a very interesting conversation. Mistakes were made on both sides.01:16
Dredd👌01:17
TuvixAs to rules, well, come to the US for some "overly loose" COVID rules. They do as much as each individual personally thinks they should :\01:17
LjLi'm glad. sorry for probably making it worse in a pretty poor attempt to defuse it.01:20
TuvixNah, you were right it didn't belong here; both of us get blame for that.01:23
DreddYeah it wouldn't have been any better without you LjL @LjL:libera.chat 😉01:27
DreddNo one on the train is really wearing masks on the UK now01:27
DreddAnd they are really busy01:27
DreddBut also getting cancelled due to staff being off with covid01:28
TuvixUK went all "no rules" recently, right? Trains included?01:28
DreddKind of annoying because I need to be getting them a lot as my dad has first had done sort of stroke type brain issues and now has had a heart attack01:28
DreddYeah no rules now, the trains suggest you wear a mask of you can for the benefit of others01:29
DreddBut apparently UK people are selfish01:29
TuvixYuck, and you've got extra exposure from the no-longer-mask-wearing passengers. At least masks still do a decent job at protecting you, so there is that.01:29
TuvixWell, not just UK; that's been the status-quo in most of the US, and people here are just as selfish, I assure you.01:29
DreddI'm traveling back and fourth a lot to my family to help where I can01:29
TuvixIt's been that way since middle of 2021, back when the CDC made the awful decision of saying that vaccinated could go without a mask, but asked the unvaccinated to wear them. And we all know how well that worked out :\01:30
DreddAll the news over here is just literally talking about whether our primeminister has eaten birthday cake at an illicit party01:30
DreddLiterally ages ago01:31
DreddPeople get all riled up about things that they can't change and won't help01:31
TuvixIt was a city requirement in the appartment complex where my mom works to wear masks in commin areas (hallways, elevators, etc.) She's got a couple minor risk factors, and she's mentioned to me that almost no one wears masks in the elevator, despite passing signs that indicate they're required.01:32
TuvixErm, where she lives.01:32
Tuvix(well, also works, these-days, remote-work being what it is)01:32
DreddTuvix: somehow the UK isn't quite in lock step with the US any longer so we are now doing a *little* bit better per capita in our handling01:32
DreddI think perhaps because our percentage of unvaccinated is lower?01:33
TuvixOh, UK out-paced the US in per-capita death rates all the way back in summer 2021 Delta wave.01:33
DreddAnd with the Omicron wave that's kind of a deal I guess01:33
TuvixJust compare the small charts down below here, and be sure to se the US vs. UK to deaths/100k pop: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases01:33
TuvixI might even have screengrabged the US vs UK close-up during the "knee" of the Delta surge, somewhere01:34
TuvixYea, here's where it went off the rails for the US: https://imgur.com/a/h57LlV501:34
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Another paper highlighting mutation result of persistent infection in immunocomptomised Persistent SARS-CoV-2 Infection with Accumulation of Mutations in a Patient with Poorly Controlled HIV Infectionpapers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/148794505057531494501:34
TuvixUK did *vastly* better (well, less badly I suppose is a better statement)01:34
DreddOh man, that sucks about your mom. Same here, bunch of people got in the lift with me yesterday too01:34
TuvixI mean, she & I both have on good quality masks, but the outright rule-breaking just because they can is just insulting.01:35
DreddAh yeah that graph is scary, pretty steep gradient01:36
TuvixThe gradiant never really changed. US never recovered from Delta, we just kind of leveled off midway through a lackluster recovery.01:36
TuvixDeaths in brown, newly vaccinated in orange here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailydeaths_7daypeoplefullyvaccinated01:37
TuvixWe've not even been close to pre-Delta levels.01:37
TuvixAlready even the left-leaning news is casting rosey optimisim that the worst of Omicron is over, but we need to do a lot better than pre-Omicron levels. November/December here were much worse going by death rate than pre-Delta back in July was.01:38
LjLhey, now https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_21 has vaccinated vs unvaccinated (for cases, hospitalizations, ICUs, deaths) distinguished by double doses since earlier than 120 days, since more than 120 days, and boosted01:39
LjLhttps://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/numeri-vaccini-italia-mondo/ probably has more of that since the above is absolute numbers and not relative to the respective populations01:39
DreddI'm not sure the UK ever got back to pre-delta levels either01:41
DreddBy that point everyone was blatantly partying and ignoring the rules here01:41
DreddSo the government just gave people what they want I guess01:41
LjLhttps://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/numeri-vaccini-italia-mondo/#effetto-dei-vaccini is confusing though: click on "Incidenza" and you'd expect vaccinated to have much lower case incidence than unvaccinated, instead it's the reverse. either something's wrong, or double doses really are pretty much useless against getting symptomatic disease at least, or... worse than useless?01:42
DreddWhich is why it's crazy that people were protesting about restrictions when there were none lol01:42
LjLwhy would you have a noticeably higher incidence in vaccinated people? just because they're "less careful" due to knowing they're vaccinated? i don't get it01:42
DreddThey work better for severe outcomes right?01:43
DreddMaybe just not on mild cases01:43
TuvixI think 2 doses is lookly very bad on symptomatic infection with Omicron, and while 2 isn't worthless for hospitalization or death, odds are much better with the booster.01:44
TuvixSome fo the docs on the feed recently are pushing the "3 spikes" theory, suggesting it takes 3 times preparing to get the antibody levels needed to provide better outcomes against Omicron. I don't know how much reserach we really have against a mix of incomplete-vaccination but at least 1 confirmed prior infection though.01:45
LjLDredd, yes, it's fine that they work for severe outcomes, but why on earth would the have *negative* efficacy against just symptomatic cases?01:47
LjLthis adds to the other two papers/reports that showed something similar01:47
LjLat some point it becomes a bit too many showing this same thing and i get a bit uncomfortable01:48
DreddAh yeah I get what you mean01:48
DreddIt's not best because there's more vaccinated?01:48
LjLTuvix, i can understand 2 doses looking "very bad", but worse than nothing?01:48
LjLDredd, but it's incidence, so they're already taking into account how many vaccinated vs not there are01:48
LjLthey're not just saying "more vaccinated than not get omicron"01:49
LjLthey're saying "among the pool of vaccinated vs unvaccinated people, more vaccinated get it"01:49
DreddIt probably is behaviour based01:49
LjLDredd, that's the explanation that one of those two papers also immediately brought forward, but even if that's the reason, well, that's better than the vaccine actually causing it, but it's still worrisoe01:49
LjLit means the communication is terribly wrong01:49
LjLpeople who got two doses being actually *more likely* to catch it is a failure, even if it's because those people act more recklessly01:50
TuvixI wonder if covid-fatigue is a factor too; more people aren't masking overall, and perhaps the ones that aren't vaccinated are also following the rules a bit less on average and may already have some partial immunity by now, at least against symptomatic infections?01:50
DreddPeople would unconsciously behave worse I reckon if they have even the slightest belief the vaccine protects them. And if they didn't then they probably mostly wouldn't get it01:51
DreddSo it's kind of a catch 2201:51
TuvixThe other thing I'd wonder about is reporting quality. I suspect many people who don't care one bit about vaccines are also not making an effort to report symptomatic infection, while someone who has been vaccianted may be more likely to.01:51
LjLDredd, but then, if governments become aware of this, they should tell people that their old two-dose vaccine doesn't protect them at all, and they should be just as careful as unvaccinated people. but. if they do say this, then people will lose more trust in vaccines.01:52
LjL(but you know what my opinion on this conundrum is going to be: tell the truth)01:53
TuvixThat's the case with seasonal flu (former season dosing won't protect you from the next.) I don't see why it's any less believable, but certain people already don't want to believe science anyway.01:53
TuvixThe problem isn't really how correct the medical science is: it's PR and politics.01:53
TuvixI think the real flaw was in the contant messaging around how after 2 doses you can get back to normal and escape the pandemic.01:54
TuvixI even started to do normal indoor gatherings myself this past summer, when infections and deaths were at an all-time low and declining. I stopped all of that after we saw how bad Delta was going to be.01:55
LjLi agree that it was bad messaging, although i must say that if they had told me "after two doses you'll have 3 months of near-normality, and then we'll go back to square one, and that'll repeat for an undetermined number of years"01:56
LjLi'm not entirely sure how i'd have reacted01:56
TuvixMore responsiveness and transparency from vaccine produceres might help too. Yes, they've got their own stakes to look out for, but with governments being the primary consumer, I think there's some improvment to be made, especially if it turns out we need some kind of annual boosters. Perhaps it's too early to be predicting that as a given, but 5-6 month lead time seems a bit much if we do turn out to02:00
Tuvixneed that.02:00
LjLTuvix, well just the other day the bot said the first Omicron-specific vaccines were inoculated into humans for the first time02:01
LjLso they're starting human trials now02:01
LjLgood luck with it being ready for production when it's still relevant...02:01
TuvixReally I think the options and how acceptable society finds it will depend a lot on what 2022 brings in terms of changes in infections and outcomes of our now very-mixed vaccine status. Everywhere from zero to 4 mRNA vaccines if you consider Israel's recent trials.02:01
TuvixRight, by the time Omicron is getting back to whatever a normal baseline level for it is in a population, we'll finally have vaccines targeting them… quite late to the party.02:02
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Trevor Bedford (@trvrb): @Tuliodna Thanks for the amazing data Tulio. Partitioning country-level case counts with GISAID sequences suggests a rise in absolute BA.2 case counts in South Africa: twitter.com/trvrb/status/1… → https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/148795248882092441702:03
LjLTuvix, and maybe also consider Turkey, where apparently people are even getting as many as 5 shots (2 "Chinese-style", 2 mRNA, and a booster)02:04
LjLthe data from there have got to be fun02:04
TuvixYea, I was really only considering the mRNA or-similar, but that's yet another factor, and will be one the world will have to grapple with when travel starts to return to more normal02:04
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Free, same day delivery of anti-Covid pills with a prescription in New York City nytimes.com/2022/01/30/nyr…When there's an ample supply of Paxlovid, this kind of program could be very helpful for reducing hospitalizations and deaths in high-risk individuals → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/148795529667263283202:13
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): To highlight the BA.2 variant findings —3-dose vaccination protects well vs symptomatic infection, which goes against any increased immune evasion (vs BA.1)—Its increased transmissibility will prolong the Omicron wave in many places—more below, w/ links [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/148796117314839756902:32
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): New and illuminating on Omicron's BA.1 and BA.2 sister variants from a Denmark household transmission studymedrxiv.org/content/10.110… More than doubling of susceptibility of infection for BA.2 (vs BA.1), but increased transmissibility not seen for 2-dose, 3-dose [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/148796964028633907403:10
Alex1138[m]we'll be on BA.70 by next month03:15
TuvixWell, with a significant enough new varient it'll get a new designated name. These are just "sub-varients" which are close enough to the original sequence not quite special enough for a new Greek letter03:17
TuvixSo far the promissing sign is that vaccine effectiveness remains. It would be the start to a bad year if a varient emerged which significantly reduced protection from hospitalization or death.03:20
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Mandatory jabs for NHS staff in England could end: Ministers will meet later to decide whether to keep the policy, as a vaccine deadline looms. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-6019341003:39
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): Thread: An important point below from @ashishkjha. What was observed in South Africa was that lot of the Omicron infection occurred in communities with very high prior delta infection; in fact, that finding is what first alerted authorities that [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/148798710857700147704:18
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): Other data show antibody response after Omicron may not be as robust as seen with delta. While there are other components of immunity, taken together, suggests period of immunity from infection conferred by Omicron might not be as persistent as [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/148798915817388851504:27
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): It’s noteworthy that the CDC recently used “within the last 90 days” as the period of time when someone with prior infection, but not vaccinated, could forgo precautions to ensure that they did not become reinfected from a close exposure [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/148799636740237312104:56
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): Becerra's absence from any COVID decision-making has been noted by others this week too.thehill.com/policy/healthc… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/148799763138511667405:06
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The 2 key Tables from this report, which I think represents the best data we have to date for difference in transmissibility between BA.1 and BA.2, by vaccination status, and by household pic.twitter.com/DxpNdYHOc7 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/148800588068771020905:34
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China punishes cold-chain managers for 'obstructing' COVID prevention → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sgshg9/china_punishes_coldchain_managers_for_obstructing/06:03
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Fake friends: Pyramid scheme disguised as socializing spreads in Japan amid COVID → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sgtcin/fake_friends_pyramid_scheme_disguised_as/06:41
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "On December 20, 30% of people in the US over-65 had gone six months since receiving a second dose, compared with just 2% in Portugal; 5 per cent in England; and 7% in Denmark."Graphic that shows differences in vaccination waning for US vs England, Denmark and [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/148805057082487193708:35
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Understanding and quantifying the difference for ICU admission between Delta, unvaccinated vs Omicron unvaccinated, 2 and 3 shots for a 70-year-old manAn outstanding graphic by @jburnmurdoch ft.com/content/03aa46… pic.twitter.com/aRDe7aYvd1 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/148805435780743168408:45
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 31, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/sgvwv2/daily_discussion_thread_january_31_2022/09:04
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canada rally against vaccine mandates blocks Ottawa as Trump praises protest → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sgw5ns/canada_rally_against_vaccine_mandates_blocks/09:34
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): If you’re poorly with COVID-19, please follow official advice and *do not* self-medicate with unproven and potential dangerous drugs.Here’s the NHS guidance on how to look after yourself if you have COVID: nhs.uk/conditions/cor… twitter.com/dr_ellie/statu… → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/148806736154667827209:43
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): For people interested in the interaction of HIV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, please get a look at our previous Nature paper published last year on 1st of Dec, AIDS day - nature.com/articles/d4158… twitter.com/Tuliodna/statu… → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/148807183181062963209:53
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin):  Count on some "researchers" to claim the obvious answer isn't the answer.Did we want a vax to the original strain? We did?Is SARSCoV2 now mostly Omicron? It is?Okay then... twitter.com/PaulBieniasz/s… → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/148807385502955110710:02
BrainstormNew from Politico: UK ministers to discuss scrapping vaccine mandate for health care workers: U.K. ministers are meeting today to discuss axing the COVID-19 vaccine mandate for health care workers in England. Health Secretary Sajid Javid could sign off the U-turn at a meeting of [... want %more?] → https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-turns-mandatory-covid-vaccine-mandate-healthcare-workers/10:32
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): Oh, and a bonus animation for the Monday morning crowd: @zorinaq made a brilliant chart in 2020 showing how Covid’s IFR compared to flu at different ages.I’ve used age-specific rates of infection and death (from @ONS, of course) to see how the [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/148808644831420006610:51
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): More great work by @jburnmurdoch and the team at @FT. Nobody should underestimate the impact vaccines have had on reducing hospitalisations - the NHS would’ve been in a very different situation this winter without our booster rollout.Other nations [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/148808860665694208011:01
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): Retrying that animation:@zorinaq made a brilliant chart in 2020 showing how Covid’s IFR compared to flu at different agesI’ve used age-specific rates of infection and death (from @ONS, of course) to see how the gap has narrowed in England [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/148808969004556288211:10
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape): Another brilliant animation from @jburnmurdoch and the team at FT that shows how vaccines, therapies and the lower virulence of omicron have reduced Covid’s deadliness.Note though that even now it remains deadlier than seasonal flu for older people. twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s… → https://twitter.com/kakape/status/148809389310308352211:20
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66): I'm aware there's a bug in the 20A.EU2 label that means it's popping up randomly within Omicron - I'll look into this as soon as my grant is submitted! ✍️Here, BA.1 (21K) with S:346K coloured.4/4nextstrain.org/groups/neherla… pic.twitter.com/TpegIansbt → https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/148809454008285593811:29
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Omicron poses less risk than Delta: but the main reduction of risk to hospitalisation and death comes from vaccination. pic.twitter.com/3LaD0ZHfia → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/148810347040205209911:58
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): Another side of the coin;"despite Omicron’s extensive mutations and reduced susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies,... Well-preserved T cell immunity to Omicron is likely to contribute to protection from severe COVID-19" medrxiv.org/content/10.110… [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/148811038563488973612:28
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Theo Sanderson (@theosanderson): Looking at today's updates to covid19.sanger.ac.uk, one sees that though overall Omicron is well down from its peak in England, BA.1.1 is almost high as it has ever been. (BA.2 continues to expand rather quickly) pic.twitter.com/b6pvrvxNPg → https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/148811237555559219212:38
BrainstormNew from Pfizer: Pfizer and Ionis Announce Discontinuation of Vupanorsen Clinical Development Program:  kimkevin Mon, 01/31/2022 - 06:59 Monday, January 31, 2022 - 07:05am NEW YORK and CARLSBAD, Calif., January 31, 2022 — Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and Ionis [... want %more?] → https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-ionis-announce-discontinuation-vupanorsen13:16
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japan's Kowa says ivermectin has 'antiviral effect' against Omicron, other variants | Reuters → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sgzrwt/japans_kowa_says_ivermectin_has_antiviral_effect/13:35
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): NB: when it comes to Covid's overall burden, remember that IFR is multiplied by total number of infections, so with Covid (and particularly the most recent variants) being much more transmissible than flu, it's not as simple as "only 2x as lethal, great [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/148813243546435993813:56
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: Weekly Scientific Discussion Thread - January 31, 2022: This weekly thread is for scientific discussion pertaining to COVID-19. Please post questions about the science of this virus and disease here to collect them for others and clear up post space for [... want %more?] → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sh0p0e/weekly_scientific_discussion_thread_january_31/14:06
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Bali to reopen to all foreign travellers | 31JAN22 → https://old.reddit.com/r/nCoV/comments/sh0unx/bali_to_reopen_to_all_foreign_travellers_31jan22/14:16
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): FT: ‘If the US had matched the vaccination coverage of leading European countries, it would have halved its #COVID19 hospitalizations’ ft.com/content/03aa46… pic.twitter.com/Zw8AL1bgml → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/148813954481388339614:25
BrainstormNew from Politico: Boris Johnson gets long-awaited Sue Gray Partygate report: Cabinet Office confirms embattled PM has received update on probe into potentially lockdown-busting parties ahead of 3:30 p.m. Commons statement. → https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-gets-long-awaited-sue-gray-partygate-report/14:36
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Our covid timesby Drew Sheneman pic.twitter.com/1OIGsU8geJ → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/148814430197655552114:46
BrainstormNew from r/Science: science: COVID vaccine markedly cuts household transmission, studies show → https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/sh1kpa/covid_vaccine_markedly_cuts_household/14:56
* darsie was shopping for his sister+family.15:00
* dTal already has a sister and family and doesn't need to buy another15:03
* Dredd also15:04
BrainstormNew from Politico: Coronavirus: Hospitals refused to treat toddler because his parents were unvaccinated → https://www.politico.eu/article/hospitals-refused-to-treat-toddler-as-his-parents-were-unvaccinated/15:06
DreddBrainstorm: that's pretty messed up even though the parents themselves have chosen to do something silly15:08
peetaurwhat such hospitals do should be treated like genocide and if they paid already (eg. through taxes) then it's fraud too15:11
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid): Today’s dashboard update has been delayed, so we’ll have to wait a little longer ‘til we see just how big the increase is. twitter.com/fact_covid/sta… pic.twitter.com/gyReOWgavJ → https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/148815293019269939315:16
xxlooks like hospitals are simply doing what I was already talking about, but people kept telling me that hospitals can't do it15:25
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Chinese authorities summon AstraZeneca execs over insurance fraud; Lilly to invest $1.5B in two factories → https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2022/01/31/china-astrazeneca-lilly-roche-massachusetts/15:36
Dreddxx: datapoint of one with little context15:37
DreddAnd from the sounds of it, it was a mistake / misunderstanding15:37
trbpof course in the aftermath it was always a misunderstanding ;)15:42
trbpthere is no interest in profit in the whole med sector15:42
xxit's always a misunderstanding, but it is a start15:42
trbpall altruistic aesculaps15:43
xxand this is just one that became more public than the many others15:43
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch): @EricTopol @paulg @FT @mroliverbarnes @JamieSmythF I'll have a look at that next week. One issue is there is much less data on VE vs death than on VE vs hospitalisation. None for Omicron AFAIK. → https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/148815849444861952315:46
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Sue Gray: Initial findings of Downing Street lockdown party probe published - BBC News → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sh2m84/sue_gray_initial_findings_of_downing_street/15:56
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The @HHSGov Secretary's invisibility for the US pandemicwashingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…A "story based on interviews with 28 senior administration officials, health agency officials, outside advisers and experts"“It’s time for @SecBecerra to come out of [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/148816396471429120016:05
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Prime Minister Trudeau tests positive for COVID-19 → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sh38dh/prime_minister_trudeau_tests_positive_for_covid19/16:15
Tuvixxx: How aware are you of the history here? Are you familiar with the 1986 Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act? Are you familiar of the drivers for that, including the games played with improper transfers, known as "patient dumping" ? I'd like to take your nonsene head-on this morning if you want to somehow suggest that violating a law in the US is the "right" way to go.16:25
TuvixI'll open with some actual definitions: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC130589716:26
Dreddxx: this is a case where they refused treatment to a 3 year old child whose parents are not vaccinated unequivocally evil. The baby has had no agency in it's parents decisions and get the best treatment in any case!16:36
Dredd> but it is a start16:38
DreddNo, it is gross negligence and the people involved need some strict repentance and re-training or else they need to get the hell out of a position where they make decisions on patient care. Whether willingly or not. Honestly I'd say it's actually a criminal case potentially.16:38
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 75% Adults In India Fully Vaccinated, PM Tweets Congratulations → https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/sh3tht/75_adults_in_india_fully_vaccinated_pm_tweets/16:45
xxTuvix: violating laws is how we changed most unjust laws16:52
TuvixYou can surely do better than that after the material I've provided. What, specifically, in the EMTALA is unjust? How have you expressed your desire to change this, for instance by calling your elected representation? What concnerns did you (or would you) express when given a couple minutes by a staffing aid?16:54
xxstill reading through that, but so far it feels very anachronistic16:55
TuvixIf you want to debate on the merits, great, but saying that it's "unjust" is just an excuse for not having a foundation upon which to express intellectual crituque of a law designed to prevent the infirm from being served due to perceived economic incentives.16:55
TuvixCompanies acting in their own best interests with concern only for their bottom line? This is not an "old" problem.16:56
xxbut it looks like it will come down to the fundamental disagreement where I believe in 'no money = no service'16:56
TuvixThat doesn't address the purpose of the law at all.16:57
xxit covers stuff like uninsured people still having rights16:57
xxwhich is related to 'no money = no service'16:57
TuvixSo, somoene who gets laid off and had healtah coverage with their employer deserves not to get medical service if they had no savings and were living paycheck to paycheck? What if they were injured driving or bussing to walking to a job interview to be a productive member of society?16:59
xx'no money = no service', I don't make exceptions16:59
xxif someone else wishes to pay for them, that's fine by me16:59
xxbut services need to be paid for17:00
TuvixThat's not legal in any modern country. You are a very troubled individual :\17:00
xxagain, breaking laws is sometimes necessary to create a more just society17:00
xxthat's how we got rid of a lot of unjust laws17:01
xxthat's how we overthrew dictators17:01
TuvixHealthcare, fire departments, and police are "unjust laws" ?17:03
xxoverloading healthcare through stupid decisions is unjust. Overloading fire departments through people's own stupidity is unjust. Making police do stupid stuff and waste time like war on drugs is unjust. Etc.17:04
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD): WSJ: Robert Califf for the FDA"Dr. Woodcock has shown heroic leadership during the pandemic as acting commissioner, but the agency needs a Senate-confirmed leader. Dr. Califf is well-qualified and deserves more White House political [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/148818007800150835817:05
TuvixAnd who gets to decide what is stupid? You? What if a fire was caused by a mentally ill child? Is that a 'stupid' cause? Should the fire department not respond?17:05
xxSure, I can decide.17:05
xxMost of fire department jobs does not involve fire.17:06
xxit involves people being stuck where they don't belong17:06
xxand most of the time the fire department has to help them for free, which is what I disagree with17:06
TuvixIt's not free; it's funded (most places, the places we're discussing at least) by taxes on an at least partially sliding scale based on means.17:07
xxfree = at no extra cost to the individual17:07
xxI'd have no issue if it meant that the individual would have their taxes increased until they pay for the costs17:08
TuvixThe whole point is that these servicesi are not affordable to most average individuials at the time they're needed. This is an economic concept referred to as "economy cost" -- it's cheaper to fund a costly operation like fire-departments from a collective pool of money.17:08
TuvixThis is fundamentally the same way an investment vehicle works, like a CD at a bank, or an investment fund.17:09
xxsure, then a group of people can fund these things and decide amongst themselves to kick people out if they don't pay up17:09
TuvixHave you called your elected political leaders to express your outrage at the status quo?17:10
xxhaven't called the elected ones, but have talked to ones who wish to one day be elected17:10
xxthere's no point talking to the ones who already have the job17:11
xxpoint is, expect fundamental changes in how we view the value of an individual human life in the next 50 years17:12
TuvixDo you go to city/county/township meetings or town halls? Do you bring these items up when funding or budgets are beign discussed to the public?17:12
TuvixThe type of healthcare system you propose is, in part, what places like India have; if you can't pay, the healthcare for the less-well-off in the population is shockingly bad.17:13
xxdon't know much about the specifics in india, but it doesn't look like india is dying out17:14
TuvixThis has not improved healthcare outcomes, and in the context of *this* channel, we're concerned with improving outcomes for a population (the globe, a country, a city, or an individual/household.)17:14
TuvixWe're talking outcomes, don't change the subject.17:14
xxisn't death an outcome?17:14
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Almitrine in COVID-19 Patients With ARDS Treated by HFNO → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT0521657517:14
Tuvixhttps://nypost.com/2021/04/24/india-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-tsunami-of-covid-19-cases/17:17
xxin the context of this channel, the vaccine is available for everyone, irrelevant whether they are rich or poor17:17
TuvixAnd?17:19
xxand india is at 131st rank in deaths per 1M population17:20
TuvixThis has what to do with hospitals unable to serve the poor class; that was your original point, I believe.17:21
TuvixAccording to you, they all should have been turned away.17:22
xxat a time when the hospital is overwhelmed and unable to provide proper care, yes17:23
xxif the hospital was empty, then sure, no problem taking a couple people17:23
TuvixYou should be ashamed of yourself for even suggesting that. Going back thousands of years this is not how medicine has been practiced. And I don't believe you actually care enough to enact the change you claim to want to see, since you've done absolutely nothing of civic value to express these views in ways that might actually make a difference.17:23
TuvixYou think you're so clever behind your keyboard and have it all "figured out" and if we just put YOU in charge, you'd fix this. Then go and be the grass-roots effort you want to see. If you think this is such an obvious and foregone conclusions and there are many thousands just like you waiting for a moment to spring into power to fix it, go DO that.17:24
xxI feel no shame17:26
TuvixSo, in conclusion, everything about modern medicine as implemented by hundreds of countries is wrong and broken, and only you can fix it for us. And we're just too tied to not bankrupting people for healthcare because they were foolish enough not to have saved up $250,000 USD for say a year of cancer treatment to result (going from a case example of a family memeber) in being cancer free and likely17:28
Tuvixgaining several decades of life.17:28
xxwell this pandemic has proven that everything about modern medicine was broken and not ready for it17:29
xxdespite decades of warnings17:29
TuvixYour proposals would not fix it. If they had, we'd have implemented things as you say. Your proposal would have resulted in more deaths. Not to mention a violation of the Hippocratic Oath.17:30
TuvixThe purpose of healthcare is to save the most lives you can with the resources available. Your goal seems to be to kill some, intentionally, but just the ones you feel deserve it. That's obscene.17:31
xxkilling someone, and not saving someone, are separate things17:32
TuvixYou say the poor shouldn't get services. It's quite likely COVID will continue to mutate in greater numbers in poor countries *unless* we, as a global society, work to fix the inequities that exist in helathcare availability and distribution.17:32
xxand did you write to your elected representatives, urging them to stop vaccination in your country and instead donating all the doses to countries where people haven't even received a single dose due to inaccessibility?17:34
xxthat's what a global society would do17:34
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: Physical and Cognitive Impairments in People Suffering From Long COVID: Conditions :    COVID-19;   SARS-CoV-2 Infection;   Corona Virus Infection;   Physical Disability;   Cognitive Impairment;   Cognitive Dysfunction;   Quality of Life;   Symptoms and Signs;   Impairment → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT0521653617:34
xxwhy do 3rd and 4th doses, instead of donating them to those who haven't even had 1st?17:34
TuvixI never advocated for that.17:34
xxyou did, that's what fixing inequities means17:34
TuvixNo, that's a factor of distribution, which I've talked about here many times.17:35
xxUSA and EU are rich enough to distribute it to other parts of the world, the will is not there17:35
TuvixThis issue is in richer countries "cutting" in line, not in them refusing to share what they have. The rich countries only have it because they are rich enough to effectively buy out supply using economic standing. WHO has summarized this all very nicely: https://www.who.int/campaigns/vaccine-equity17:41
TuvixAt a macro-scale, what we effectively have is a classic Tragedy of the Commons situation; there's a nationalist incentive for each country to equip itself with as much vaccine as they can as quickly as they can, since that's better in the short term for that country. But to the extent doing so prices out poorer countries, even the wealthier countries are vulnerable to the impact of mutations given the17:49
Tuvixglobal travel connection.17:49
TuvixIt's the same effect the many saw early in the pandemic with panic over-buying at grocery stories. Oddly, one of the supplies suddenly in high-demand was bathroom tissue paper. There was enough supply, but distribution favored those who had the means to drive further and purchase product in bulk, both reducing short-term supply and potentially raising prices.17:51
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Identify Coronavirus Disease by Chest X-ray → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT0521647117:54
xxI just ordered tp online, it came on time despite all those funny vids online17:54
xxregarding the earlier points, global travel connections need to be looked at too, since they are what caused this pandemic17:56
TuvixThat's entierly unrelated to my point, or the association to the tragedy of the commons, or the reference to artificially disrupted flow of supplies. Since you're clearly intent on not reading or responding to my points in any meaningful way, I'll stop making them.17:56
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Assessment of Delayed-type Hypersensitivity Reactions to SARS-CoV-2 Peptide Antigens → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT0521651018:04
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): "Vaccine inequity provides only limited and short-term benefits to high income countries...Equitable vaccine allocation strategies, in contrast, substantially curb the spread of new strains."nature.com/articles/s4156… @NatureHumBehav in a dedicated issue on [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/148819645447257702418:14
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): Chances are nonzero that the next variant will come from the currently most widespread and most contagious variant, i.e. Omicron. Good to be prepared. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/148819967702797107218:24
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): New @NatImmunol For our innate immunity vs #SARSCoV2, the importance, dual sword nature, and genomics (assoc w/ disease severity) of mannose-binding lectin (MBL), including its recognition of Omicronnature.com/articles/s4159… pic.twitter.com/0ibAyBFEep → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/148820083858134220818:33
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): Basically in this epidemic, if the question is "should we .... just in case?" the answer is yes. Just do it. → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/148820380421020057618:43
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Latest topics: nCoV-2019 Genomic Epidemiology: Continued genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, by the Corona-ômica-RJ Network → https://virological.org/t/continued-genomic-surveillance-of-sars-cov-2-in-the-state-of-rio-de-janeiro-brazil-by-the-corona-omica-rj-network/78218:53
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: Moderna Vaccine More Effective Than Pfizer-BioNTech at Preventing Infections, Hospitalizations: Among a matched study cohort, Moderna recipients were less likely to experience COVID-19 breakthrough infections and [... want %more?] → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/moderna-vaccine-more-effective-than-pfizer-biontech-at-preventing-infections-hospitalizations19:13
xx^ not statistically significant19:15
LjLalso a 404 for me19:20
Tuvix"Among the matched cohorts, mRNA-1273 recipients (n = 3054) had a lower risk of 60-day hospitalizations than BNT162b2 recipients (n = 3054) (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.70-0.91). No significant difference was observed for mortality (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.50-1.23)."19:22
Tuvix"the cohorts were similar after matching but small, statistically significant differences in some characteristics remained. However, those differences would lead to an underestimation of the differences between vaccines."19:22
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Impact of close interpersonal contact on COVID-19 incidence: Evidence from 1 year of mobile device data → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sh7uci/impact_of_close_interpersonal_contact_on_covid19/19:22
LjLconfidently lower risk of hospitalization sounds like something i wouldn't mind19:23
LjLand it's consistent with other reports i've seen lately, although most of them were short on significance19:23
LjLbut it sounds pretty plausible to me, it's largely the same thing but with more of it (as shown by more side effects), so more efficacy wouldn't surprise me19:24
LjLis this about 2-dose or booster by the way?19:24
TuvixIt was from March-August 2021, so before boosters were available for anyone except perhaps some of the higher-at-risk who were possibly authroized sooner.19:25
LjLi don't understand why i get a 404. Google links to the same URL, also a 404. am i shadowbanned by contagion live too now? :P19:25
TuvixAlso for Delta, but the results are likely similar against Omicron given the overall reports of similar VE trends between both mRNA options, so I'd presume that likely holds true with Omicron, but that's indeed a bit of guessing on my part.19:26
TuvixAlso from the methodology in that study, "All statistical analyses were conducted within the TriNetX Analytics Platform with significance set at a 2-sided P < .05." -- it appears they did indeed consider significance of the data to back the claims, with respect to infection and hospitalization.19:30
TuvixAnd as to the cohort selection, "… positive laboratory test result […] in fully vaccinated individuals receiving 2 doses of an mRNA vaccine (anytime between December 2020 and November 2021) who had no booster shot and no prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Breakthrough infections were included if occurring 14 days after full vaccination."19:30
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Latest topics: Rapid Establishment of Omicron Variant in Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil: Mariana Soares da Silva¹, Juliana Schons Gularte¹, Ana Cristina Sbaraini Mosena¹, Meriane Demoliner¹, Micheli Filippi¹, Alana Witt Hansen¹, Vyctoria [... want %more?] → https://virological.org/t/rapid-establishment-of-omicron-variant-in-rio-grande-do-sul-state-brazil/78319:32
generahttps://www.contagionlive.com/view/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-slightly-more-effective-than-pfizer-biontech19:33
genera404 again?19:33
TuvixThat loads; the original link loaded for me, but on reload now returns a 404 here; sounds like they re-published it at a new URI :\19:35
generaya19:35
LjLloads19:36
LjL"The Moderna recipients had a significantly lower risk of breakthrough infections than Pfizer-BioNTech recipients. 60 days after vaccination, the hospitalization risk was 12.7% for the Moderna cohort and 13.3% for the Pfizer recipients."19:37
LjLif this is statistically significant, well it just is, not questioning that - but, for me personally, it seems like a difference that i wouldn't care about19:38
LjLon the other hand i find both of them too high for any big comfort19:38
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid: Ministers to consult over NHS jab requirement for England: The policy for England, which also includes care staff, will be subject to a review in light of the Omicron variant. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-6020743619:52
BrainstormNew from Politico: Coronavirus: England set to U-turn on mandatory vaccines for healthcare staff → https://www.politico.eu/article/england-set-to-u-turn-on-mandatory-vaccines-for-healthcare-staff/20:12
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Novavax Submits Request to the U.S. FDA for Emergency Use Authorization of COVID-19 Vaccine → https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/sh9d0z/novavax_submits_request_to_the_us_fda_for/20:21
LjLagain?!20:28
LjLNovavax moves in slow motion or what20:29
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine Receives FDA Approval: The company’s Spikvax vaccine was approved based on its submission that included efficacy and safety data approximately 6 months after second dose. → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-receives-fda-approval20:31
BrainstormNew from ##covid-19 Zotero group: Previous Humoral Immunity to the Endemic Seasonal Alphacoronaviruses NL63 and 229E Is Associated with Worse Clinical Outcome in COVID-19 and Suggests Original Antigenic Sin: Type Journal Article Author Daniele Focosi Author Angelo Genoni Author Ersilia Lucenteforte Author Silvia [... want %more?] → https://www.zotero.org/groups/covid_links/items/W3KIR9JK20:51
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD  (@michaelzlin): EMA approved Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir) as the first oral pill for COVID19 in Europe. Paxlovid is 89% effective in preventing hospitalization.It had the sense not to approve the human and viral mutagen molnupiravir (30% effective) the next day, unlike [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/148823942869897216021:01
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): This is the basis of long protection.T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike cross-recognize Omicronnature.com/articles/s4158… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/148824111863455745121:11
BrainstormNew from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Arcturus Therapeutics Inc: ARCT-165 → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/148/21:30
de-factoafaik we may see Novavax soon in Germany21:38
de-facto.title https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-receive-38-mln-doses-novavaxs-new-covid-vaccine-q1-2022-01-25/21:38
Brainstormde-facto: From www.reuters.com: Germany to receive 3.8 mln doses of Novavax's new COVID vaccine in Q1 | Reuters21:38
de-facto.title https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/country/germany/21:39
Brainstormde-facto: From covid19.trackvaccines.org: Germany – COVID19 Vaccine Tracker21:39
LjLde-facto, remind me, did the EMA approve it? and it was the FDA that hadn't yet approved it until today?21:39
BrainstormNew from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: Altimmune Inc: AdCOVID → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/75/21:40
de-factoafaik yes EMA approved21:40
de-facto.title v21:41
Brainstormde-facto, the command line provided is invalid21:41
de-factogmbl21:41
de-facto.title https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines21:41
Brainstormde-facto: From www.ema.europa.eu: COVID-19 vaccines | European Medicines Agency21:41
LjLby the way, i think i remember some people here calling remdesivir basically dead for the treatment of COVID, and ineffective, and barely better than the infamous horse paste in terms of who are the people who support it21:45
LjLbut meanwhile, the FDA withdraw approval of a bunch of monoclonal antibodies, due to them not working with Omicron21:45
LjLbut on the other hand, "Importantly, there are several other therapies – Paxlovid, sotrovimab, Veklury (remdesivir), and molnupiravir – that are expected to work against the omicron variant, and that are authorized or approved to treat patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 who are at high risk for progression to severe disease, including hospitalization or death."21:45
TuvixSome US states were making a big stink politically within the last couple of weeks about getting shipments of the mAb's for Delta that aren't effective against Omicron, specifically because they were saying (and partially correctly, depending on where) that they still had Delta cases in their regions.21:47
TuvixBut given the delay to actually order/ship/receive and then perscribe them, it's unclear how much Delta-only treatments are really useful, although to the extent that sequencing confirms Delta, sure, it's useful to have supplies on hand for any justified demand.21:48
LjLTuvix, but the thing is, are they using PCRs that *detect* the variant via STGF? because i think largely the US is not publishing PCR-based variant data, so not sure what tests they're using21:48
LjLin Italy we don't really get to know what variants we are. except of course for the very, very few sequenced cases21:48
TuvixThat's a good question too, and perhaps at this point the assumption is that confirmed cases really are Omicron given the swift takeover. NYC recently announced it's delivering the oral pill treatments to qualifying people for free to ensure they can isolate without needing to venture out to pick up their treatments.21:49
BrainstormNew from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: valerie: AnGes: AG0301-COVID19 → https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/vaccines/3/21:50
TuvixAs I understand, there's a rather tight window for the oral antivirals to work, so delays of a day or several could be costly in outcomes.21:50
LjLyes, they're approved for between 3 and 5 days from symptom onset (or diagnosis?) iirc21:50
TuvixI worry to some extent of the effect on behavior too; US culture loves their perscriptions as a fix, and in general seems to focus less on preventative care, which in this case would obviously include vaccination.21:51
TuvixThe incentives aren't there to focus on preventative care; insurance companies don't really reward healthcare providers like clinics, primary-care, urgent-care, or hospitals for sucessfully improving outcomes.21:52
arunsAre you American Tuvix?21:52
TuvixYup.21:52
arunsI am not.21:53
aruns:D21:53
arunsBut I was looking one day at some of the laws you have in place for regulating the healthcare sector in the US.21:53
TuvixAnd annoyed about the outcomes in this case; I linked this earlier, but the UK vs US where neck-and-neck for deaths-per-capita over time most of the pandemic. That is, until Delta. Delta hit the us just before Sept, 2021, and see the difference: https://imgur.com/a/h57LlV521:53
arunsAnd I am not sure on the merits of regulation vs deregulation with regards to the healthcare sector.21:54
Tuvixwere* neck-and-neck21:54
arunsBut things like certificate of need laws really need to go.21:54
TuvixA big part of the "billing" part of the healthcare industry is based on what treatments are "approved." Many things require "pre-approval" which means if you don't carefully verify a procedure or treatment is covered by your many-hundreds-pages-long insurance plan, you may end up footing some, most, or all of the bill for it.21:55
arunsMaybe one of your issues is that the healthcare providers leverage these existing laws, such as certificate of need laws, to arbitrarily restrict competition.21:55
TuvixYes, that's part of it, but also that the goal isn't efficient healthcare that's outcomes focused: it's profit-focused, on both the insurance companies that pay for medical care, and many (though not all) of the providers performing the actual customer-facing healthcare services.21:56
TuvixNeither group has a real "interest" in your outcomes. Yes, obviously the doctors do, but much of that is specalized too. Your general-physician may give you a reference to a specialist, and while they may be very good at their job, they may not be covered the same under your plan. Or during your visit you may incur line-item charges for tests or equipment used that you didn't relize weren't covered.21:57
TuvixIt's very hard in the US to "shop" for healthcare because it's so complex that even people who work in healthcare cannot really explain what you'll be charged for or which category it falls under on your plan, what parts are excluded, and what you actually have to foot the bill for.21:57
arunsIndeed.21:58
arunsI know there have been attempts made to force hospitals to be more transparent with their pricing.21:58
TuvixVery quick example: a few years ago I needed some dental care. I knew I needed some work and upgraded my plan to a higher-coverage plan. After all the exclusions and payments the insurance did not cover, which were not obvious at all, they only paid out about the same as the premiums I put into the plan, so in other words I'd have been no worse off without insurance.21:59
TuvixWorse than that, the clinic I used may have actually cut me a price-break if I told them upfront I had no insurance for the dental care, because that clinic charges insurance the "insurance rate" for procedures, but often those rates are higher than the actual cost to the clinic to perform them.21:59
arunsBut then some critics of this have maintained that prospective patients could refuse essential treatment over price, should hospitals disclose treatment prices upfront.21:59
TuvixThe irony is that by having insurance, I may have paid more money out of pocket for the exact same procedure, and all this despite "having insurance"21:59
BrainstormNew from Politico: Coronavirus: UK’s Liz Truss tests positive for coronavirus on eve of Ukraine visit → https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-liz-truss-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-on-eve-of-ukraine-visit/21:59
xxteeth are overrated22:00
TuvixOh yes, of course, the "ideal" environment is that patients can carefully shop around. But the reality is the system is far too complex to do that in practice.22:00
xxa modern human basically has no need for teeth anyway22:00
xxhence I can understand why dental is a luxury item22:00
xxand separate from general healthcare22:01
Tuvixxx: Oh good, calling out your crap again; medical professionals have for around a decade now linked oral health with overall health in a number of crucial ways.22:01
LjLTuvix, in Italy the public healthcare barely covers dental work... it does nominally, but in practice you wait so long that all they end up doing is extractions. most people who can afford it go to a private dentist, with or without insurance22:01
xxTuvix: correlations22:01
xxsame as women who ride horses also have better health outcomes22:02
TuvixJust stop; no one wants your "everyone should die" attitude here.22:02
LjLxx, give it a break with these idiotic statement like "<xx> a modern human basically has no need for teeth anyway"22:02
xxLjL: we have blenders now, they do the job of teeth22:02
LjLand they are correlations with suspected causative mechanisms at play in some cases, fwiw22:02
LjLxx, okay give me ten minutes22:02
eckswho needs legs when we have wheelchairs22:07
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): Latest 3-shot vaccine effectiveness data vs omicron, summarized ✓ ~50% against infections ✓ ~90% against hospitalizations✓ ~95% against deaths twitter.com/EricTopol/stat… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/148825543667117670422:09
LjLecks, good point22:12
* LjL grabs a bat22:12
LjL%act like xx22:12
BrainstormLjL, I think xx would say: so that one is appeal to futility22:12
LjL%act like xx talking about insurance22:12
BrainstormLjL, I think xx would say: e.g. increasing insurance costs to the door22:12
xxecks: who needs wheelchairs when we work from home?22:12
LjLlooks like we have a Brainstorm xx now, it does the job of xx22:12
de-facto.title https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-6019341022:12
Brainstormde-facto: From www.bbc.com: Covid: Government may U-turn on compulsory NHS staff jabs - BBC News22:12
xxLjL: perfect :)22:13
eckshomes are a luxury item22:13
LjLwell tbf homes are not considered "necessary" by all governments... or maybe even many... as in, if you don't have one, they won't ensure you do get one. some governments do, and have made it a basic rights, but i think they're still in the minority22:14
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: News Scan for Jan 31, 2022: Serious mental illness amid COVID Variant swine flu in Denmark H5N1 avian flu in 2 countries → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/01/news-scan-jan-31-202222:29
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: COVID patients with disability prone to longer hospital stay, readmission: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Jan 31, 2022 People with disabilities had 36% longer COVID-19 hospital stays and 77% more readmissions. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/01/covid-patients-disability-prone-longer-hospital-stay-readmission22:39
Alex1138[m]i can't believe how long ago 2019 feels23:01
Alex1138[m]and what a different world it was23:01
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Texas High School Students Want More COVID Protections: Some Texas high school students have turned to protests and petitions to force school districts to adopt more protections from COVID-19. → https://www.webmd.com/news/20220131/texas-high-school-students-want-more-covid-protections23:08
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: FDA fully approves Moderna COVID vaccine, Spikevax: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Jan 31, 2022 Pre-Omicron data show 93% protection against COVID-19 and 98% protection against severe COVID-19. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/01/fda-fully-approves-moderna-covid-vaccine-spikevax23:17
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Science: Omicron may have FDA rethinking vaccine strategy for kids under 5 → https://arstechnica.com/23:46

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