libera/##covid-19/ Thursday, 2022-03-31

Arsaneritde-facto: The German health minister is not in a position to do what he thinks is good, because the FDP are in government.00:04
ArsaneritI think it's quite clear that Lauterbach personally disagrees with federal government policy.00:04
Arsaneritgn00:05
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Feds Launch 'One-Stop' Website for All COVID Resources: Covid.gov will let people find tests, vaccines and treatments with just a few clicks. → https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220330/feds-launch-covid-website-for-resources00:08
de-facto%title https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00776-200:12
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nature.com: Dozens of unidentified bat species likely live in Asia — and could host new viruses00:12
BrainstormUpdates for Unknown, China: +69088 cases since 2 months ago — Brazil: +29143 cases since 22 hours ago01:01
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Science: Pfizer, Moderna vaccines aren’t the same; study finds antibody differences → https://arstechnica.com/?p=184467201:05
BrainstormNew from WHO Euro: Fighting COVID-19 in prisons: WHO report presents best practices from countries: People living in prisons are more vulnerable to COVID-19 infection than those living in the [... want %more?] → https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-determinants/prisons-and-health/news/news/2022/3/fighting-covid-19-in-prisons-who-report-presents-best-practices-from-countries201:15
LjLuhmm01:47
LjL%print https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/150931245619525222901:47
BrainstormLjL, It says: zeynep tufekci (@zeynep): "Terrible precedent. Corbevax has been approved in India for children by the government sidestepping expert advisory committees, without any public data whatsoever and without even pediatric trials being completed. Surely, poorer countries deserve no less than we do for approvals." | nitter01:47
BrainstormUpdates for Malta: +1677 cases, +7 deaths, +6219 tests since 3 days ago — Samoa: +172 cases since a day ago — United Kingdom: +88946 cases since 22 hours ago02:04
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): A comprehensive contact tracing study of >23,000 people with Covid and their ~9,000 households demonstrates that Omicron has a similar generation time and period of viral shedding as the Delta and Alpha variants papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/150933256091609088402:59
BrainstormUpdates for Slovakia: +8046 cases since 23 hours ago03:00
BrainstormNew from CDC EIDJ: (news): Serum Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 after BNT162b2 Booster Vaccination → https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/28/6/22-0503_article03:47
BrainstormNew from Virology.ws: Trial By Error: Can Someone Please Slap a Warning Label on this Exercise-and-Rehab Long Covid Study?: By David Tuller, DrPH I’ve been writing for a while about the rush to treat long Covid patients with the outdated [... want %more?] → https://www.virology.ws/2022/03/30/trial-by-error-can-someone-please-slap-a-warning-label-on-this-exercise-and-rehab-long-covid-study/03:57
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The early BA.2 US waveCorrelates pretty well with where BA.2 has become dominantcovidact.now and covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… pic.twitter.com/EEUrFJ1ams → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/150935832208829235204:44
BrainstormUpdates for New Zealand: +15438 cases, +21 deaths since 23 hours ago04:59
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Serum Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 after BNT162b2 Booster Vaccination → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/tsqia4/serum_neutralization_of_sarscov2_omicron_ba1_and/05:32
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +269140 cases since 14 hours ago — Thailand: +27560 cases, +85 deaths since a day ago — Barbados: +43 deaths since 3 hours ago — France: +169051 cases since 8 hours ago06:02
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 882: Elispot on about T cells and lipids: Vincent and Brianne review the need to better understand T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection to better inform public health decisions, and how IL-1 and IL-1ra are important regulators of the inflammatory response to RNA vaccines. → https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-882/06:10
BrainstormUpdates for Saitama, Japan: +3804 cases, +7 deaths since a day ago — Chiba, Japan: +3011 cases, +4 deaths since a day ago — Tasmania, Australia: +2475 cases since a day ago — Hokkaido, Japan: +1979 cases, +4 deaths since a day ago08:07
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Seven days in medicine: 23-29 March 2022: Covid-19UK covid cases soar within a weekAn estimated one in 16 people in England—6.39% of the population—had covid-19 in the week ending 19 March, said the Office for National Statistics.1 This is a... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o820.short08:52
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | March 31, 2022: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/tsu0u2/daily_discussion_thread_march_31_2022/09:01
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): “In the U.S., there were 54.1 million people 65 and older in 2019, and since then the coronavirus has killed one out of every 74 of them.Younger people have not escaped. About 240,000 Americans between the ages of 18 and 64 have died, nearly a quarter of [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/150942730018136474009:11
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): “These deaths have wide-ranging consequences. The effects on children may be the longest-lasting. In the US, an estimated 243,000 children have lost a caregiver to COVID…the psychological and economic aftershocks can have lifetime negative impacts on [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/150942843431286374709:20
BrainstormUpdates for Taiwan: +238 cases, +47131 tests since 20 hours ago10:00
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: There's no return to normal for millions of children orphaned during Covid → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV/comments/tsv637/theres_no_return_to_normal_for_millions_of/10:28
BrainstormUpdates for Israel: +12205 cases since 22 hours ago11:03
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid: Last day of free tests in England fuels concern: From Friday, most people in England will have to pay if they want to check if they have Covid. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-6093862411:27
BrainstormNew from BMJ: How Japan survived covid-19: On 20 February 2020, the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Yokohama, 36 km south of the Japanese capital Tokyo, and turned into the world’s largest cluster of people infected with a new disease:... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o778.short11:55
BrainstormNew from Novavax: (news): Novavax Submits Request to Expand Conditional Marketing Authorization of COVID-19 Vaccine in the European Union to Adolescents (Ages 12-17) → https://ir.novavax.com/2022-03-31-Novavax-Submits-Request-to-Expand-Conditional-Marketing-Authorization-of-COVID-19-Vaccine-in-the-European-Union-to-Adolescents-Ages-12-1712:05
BrainstormNew from Politico: Coronavirus: Novavax asks EU to approve coronavirus vaccine for adolescents → https://www.politico.eu/article/novavax-eu-approve-coronavirus-vaccine-adolescents/12:15
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Lockdowns spread in China as omicron tests “zero covid” strategy: The force of the omicron BA.2 variant this week met the immovable object that is China’s zero covid policy as Shanghai locked down amid the country’s worst outbreak since early 2020. World oil prices... → http://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o859.short12:24
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer): Alright, the SAVE (SARS-CoV-2 Assessment of Viral Evolution program) paper is out! "Defining the risk of SARS-CoV-2 variants on immune protection"nature.com/articles/s4158… → https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/150947709462710272112:34
BrainstormNew from ECDC: Data on 14-day notification rate of new COVID-19 cases and deaths: Data in various file formats on the 14-day notification rate of newly reported COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population and 14-day notification rate of reported deaths per million population by week [... want %more?] → https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/data-national-14-day-notification-rate-covid-1913:03
BrainstormUpdates for Bhutan: +1138 cases, +4295 tests since a day ago — Vanuatu: +251 cases since 19 hours ago14:11
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Decreased retinal vascular density linked to moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia → https://old.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/tsym3j/decreased_retinal_vascular_density_linked_to/14:29
BrainstormNew from Science-Based Medicine: Vitamin D for the prevention of COVID-19: A randomized controlled trial: A large clinical trial shows vitamin D supplementation had no effect on COVID-19. The post  first appeared on Science-Based Medicine . → https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/vitamin-d-for-the-prevention-of-covid-19-a-randomized-controlled-trial/14:49
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Safety, tolerability and viral kinetics during SARS-CoV-2 human challenge in young adults → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/tsz6e8/safety_tolerability_and_viral_kinetics_during/14:59
BrainstormUpdates for Cook Is.: +138 cases, +340 tests since a day ago — Germany: +266857 cases since 22 hours ago — Samoa: +1 deaths since 13 hours ago15:07
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Study: Nasal Spray Flu Vaccine Safe for Kids With Asthma: The nasal spray flu vaccine does not worsen symptoms for children with asthma, according to a new clinical trial published in the journal Pediatrics. → https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20220330/study-nasal-spray-flu-vaccine-safe-for-kids-with-asthma15:28
camelia[m]Is this still true?16:25
camelia[m]"the viral dose, or amount of infectious virus transmitted from one person to another, does not appear to affect disease severity. In practical terms, this means that an individual who inhales a greater number of infectious particles will not necessarily experience more severe disease than an individual who is infected with a smaller amount. "16:25
camelia[m]Is this still true?16:25
camelia[m]"the viral dose, or amount of infectious virus transmitted from one person to another, does not appear to affect disease severity. In practical terms, this means that an individual who inhales a greater number of infectious particles will not necessarily experience more severe disease than an individual who is infected with a smaller amount. "16:25
BrainstormNew from r/COVID19: COVID19: Show us the Data: Global COVID-19 Wastewater Monitoring Efforts, Equity, and Gaps → https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/tt0lme/show_us_the_data_global_covid19_wastewater/16:38
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD   (@michaelzlin): "Protection against hospitalization...was significantly higher with 3 doses of the RNA vaccines, which offered 90% effectiveness...compared with:· A single J&J shot... 31% effectiveness.· Two J&J shots... 67% effectiveness.· A J&J shot with a [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150954200380927181816:48
dTalcamelia[m]: that sounds pretty dubious from first principles16:56
dTalbut I don't know16:57
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD   (@michaelzlin): Interestingly, in ED visits, JJ+RNA was almost as good as RNA x3, and another study found no difference between JJ+RNA and RNA x3 in symptomatic Omicron cases. This is consistent with the CDC website showing JnJers not overrepresented in Omicron [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150954445903322726816:57
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +11684 cases, +55 deaths since 20 hours ago17:00
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Prof. Shane Crotty (@profshanecrotty): The great Stanley Plotkin (Plotkin's Vaccines. THE book) asked Prof. Michael Goldblatt, Prof. Galit Alter, and myself to contribute. It was a pleasure to put this together. I talk about it more here:twitter.com/profshanecrott… → https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/150954972527550055217:17
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): COVID-19 Study at the Russian Clinical and Research Center of Gerontology of the Pirogov RNRMU → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT0530294717:46
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Prevalence and Impact of COVID-19 on Maternal and Infant Health in African Populations → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT0530316818:05
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +25489 cases, +26 deaths since 21 hours ago18:09
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Heterologous Boost Immunization With Ad5-nCoV After Three-dose Priming With an Inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine → https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT0530358418:15
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid: NHS Wales planned care will slow down - health minister: People are urged to stay away from A&E departments unless absolutely necessary, as Covid cases rise. → https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-6092158318:25
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Eric Topol (@EricTopol): The people who don't realize how important boosters are against Omicron (BA.1 and BA.2) symptomatic infections and hospitalizations are not keeping up with the data. New @UKHSA report gov.uk/government/pub… pic.twitter.com/6GA9IEu7h6 → https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/150957100973250560418:44
xxany new better vaccines coming out soon?18:47
darsieAgainst which variant?18:49
darsieCurrent or future variants?18:49
darsieAll of them?18:49
xxdon't know, just something new compared to the boring old vaccines we've been having18:52
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg): In Ireland, the number of ICU days needed to treat COVID patients over 2 years of the pandemic equals the expected number of ICU days needed to treat patients with flu for 55 years before the pandemic. With strict NPIs.What would these figures have been [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/GANyborg/status/150957188324260250018:53
BrainstormNew from Contagion Live: NIH Launches Trial Evaluating Second COVID-19 Booster Shots: One day after the FDA approved second booster shots for certain vulnerable populations, the National Institute of Health (NIH) announced they have begun enrolling adult US participants in a [... want %more?] → https://www.contagionlive.com/view/nih-launches-trial-evaluating-second-covid-19-booster-shots19:03
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +14017 cases, +60 deaths since 23 hours ago19:06
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Michael Lin, MD PhD   (@michaelzlin): BTW this shows that the CDC can recommend vaccine uses not formally approved by FDA. We've seen that before, e.g. additional doses for the IC. So once FDA grants EUA, CDC can expand beyond EUA indications. It means FDA's role is only needed for adding [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/150958005207312384119:22
LjLxx, don't think so... Moderna and Pfizer have both postponed their Omicron-specific shots iirc19:38
xxit's not even about omicron-specific, I just mean more fancy stuff19:39
xxlike, general for all coronaviruses19:39
xxor something19:39
LjL"they're being worked on"19:40
LjLi don't think anything is on the short-term horizon19:40
BrainstormNew from Novavax: (news): Novavax Statement on Arrival of its COVID-19 Vaccine in Canada → https://ir.novavax.com/Novavax-Statement-on-Arrival-of-its-COVID-19-Vaccine-in-Canada19:51
xxis novavax fancy in any way?19:52
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Thursday 31 March 2022 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/tt5c2j/thursday_31_march_2022_update/20:01
LjLxx, i'm not really sure. initially it had the best reported efficacy, if you didn't count the trial run in South Africa where they already caught the Gamma variant and so the efficacy was already down to 60%. but it's small differences, it was like 96% vs 95% and 94% for Pfizer and Moderna. of course now it's an entirely different landscape, both because of variants and because we know duration of immunity is key. since Novavax seems to have had a lot of trouble20:05
LjLactually getting the vaccine out, and it only started being used outside of trials recently, i don't know if they have any solid data on Omicron, or on waning (though they could have waning from the trials, i suppose). it's a vaccine that some vaccine hesitant people preferred because it's a less "new" type, but, ultimately, it's still spike proteins walking around your blood so my *guess* is it won't be very different from mRNA vaccines20:05
xxthanks20:06
BrainstormUpdates for Japan: +50712 cases, +102 deaths since 12 hours ago — United Kingdom: +74419 cases, +192 deaths since 23 hours ago — Italy: +66806 cases, +159 deaths, +486813 tests since 23 hours ago20:08
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Tulio de Oliveira (@Tuliodna): I am very proud of our team! Today, helped Africa sequence 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes. In addition, our team provided genomic surveillance to 12 countries but trained 24 countries in Africa, so 53/55 African counties have recent genomic data! Amazing [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/150959831974776832020:30
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Bloom Lab (@jbloom_lab): NIH’s initial analysis found just deletion from China described in my paper (from justthenews.com/sites/default/…). But NIH must have made an error, as we now know two submisssions deleted just by Wuhan Univ on June-16-2020: one in my paper & also [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/150959961449988505720:40
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Josiah 'So Mild' Grindrod (@JT_Grindrod): File this under "no shit Sherlock" twitter.com/LongCovidSOS/s… → https://twitter.com/JT_Grindrod/status/150960216148260046620:50
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Walid Gellad, MD MPH (@walidgellad): In February, 99% of the population in England had antibodies to covid, either from infection or vaccination. (ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…)What is the best explanation for the finding below? Shouldn't this make us at least a bit worried in US? Why is [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/walidgellad/status/150960575599282176621:29
BrainstormNew from Science Daily: Easier, faster assay enables many more laboratories to identify COVID-19 variants: Using a commercially available test and simplified process, any laboratory that can run a real-time PCR assay can detect known SARS-CoV-2 variants in patient samples, researchers report. → https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/03/220331151438.htm21:39
BrainstormUpdates for France: +169311 cases, +139 deaths since 15 hours ago22:01
LjL<Brainstorm> New from The Atlantic: A Second Booster Can’t Hurt: The FDA and CDC have cleared the way for Americans older than 50 to get a second booster shot —but they don’t quite suggest that everyone in that age group should do so. Like masking and many other pandemic-control [... want %more?] → https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/03/do-i-need-second-covid-booster-shot/629440/22:06
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: COVID vaccine prevents 40% of Omicron hospital stays in teens, 68% in kids: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Mar 31, 2022 Among the 1,185 hospitalized kids and teens in the study, 88% were unvaccinated. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/03/covid-vaccine-prevents-40-omicron-hospital-stays-teens-68-kids22:08
LjLhow underwhelming22:10
dTalwell maybe that's distorted because teens mostly don't end up in hospital anyway22:24
dTalpresumbly the vaccine doesn't help so much when you have whatever comorbidity is landing teens in the hospital in the first place22:25
LjLi'm not sure i call that distorted, it's just how effective it is in the population being looked at, whatever the reasons22:26
LjLif it's potentially distorted because few people and huge confidence intervals, that's another matter22:27
LjLadmittedly i've only commented on the headline22:27
LjLVaccine effectiveness (VE) of two doses of the Pfizer vaccine given at least 14 days earlier against COVID-19 hospitalization among 12- to 18-year-olds in the Delta-dominant period was 93% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89% to 95%) 2 to 22 weeks after vaccination and 92% (95% CI, 80% to 97%) at 23 to 44 weeks.22:28
LjLIn the Omicron-dominant period, VE was 40% (95% CI, 9% to 60%) against hospitalization, 79% (95% CI, 51% to 91%) against critical COVID-19, and 20% (95% CI, −25% to 49%) against noncritical illness among 12- to 18-year-olds after a median interval of 162 days since vaccination.22:28
LjLvery large CI indeed (although even the top is pretty low)22:29
LjLit looks like things did deteriorate considerably compared to Delta but the confidence intervals on Delta are much narrower than on Omicron22:29
LjLbut also, this is without a booster22:31
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: (((Howard Forman))) (@thehowie): ConnecticutGlass half empty: cases up; positive rate up. Glass half full: Hospitalizations STILL declining. Deaths down to pre-Omicron levels. Wastewater SARS-CoV2 levels NOT rising. If you are > 65; or over 50 w/co-morbid conditions, GET boosted now. [... want %more?] → https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/150963319937427456622:56
BrainstormUpdates for Malaysia: +18560 cases, +44 deaths since a day ago — Canada: +13291 cases, +86 deaths since 22 hours ago23:04
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): Unadjusted rates of infection, hospitalisation and death among the different vaccination stages; adjusted per 100.000. pic.twitter.com/FMyiaRIAMu → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/150963677636475290623:06
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: CDC: 37% of US teens had poor mental health in pandemic: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Mar 31, 2022 Also, 44% reported feeling persistently sad or hopeless, and 55% noted domestic emotional abuse by an adult. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/03/cdc-37-us-teens-had-poor-mental-health-pandemic23:16
BrainstormNew from COVID on Twitter: Marc Veldhoen (@Marc_Veld): And the warnings keep coming; SARS-COV-2 infections; even when mild can have serious consequencesDiabetes risk rises after COVID, massive study findsnature.com/articles/d4158… → https://twitter.com/Marc_Veld/status/150964193891554508823:25
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: Ivermectin doesn't prevent COVID hospital cases, large study finds: Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News Mar 31, 2022 Early treatment with ivermectin didn't prevent hospitalization for COVID-19. → https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/03/ivermectin-doesnt-prevent-covid-hospital-cases-large-study-finds23:35
ArsaneritLjL: but the baseline likelihood of critical COVID-19 when getting the virus is lower with omicron than with delta?23:40
ArsaneritSo 79% of P(critical|omicron,unvaccinated) is less than x% of P(critical|delta,unvaccinated)?23:41
LjLBut the amount of people who get it is much larget23:41
LjLAlso Omicron is less severe than Delta but about as severe as the things thst came before Delta23:41
LjLThat's the "mildness" subtlety23:42

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